Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Michael Saylor Reveals Why Bitcoin’s Most Disappointing Year was a HUGE SETUP | Simply SatoSHE

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Michael Saylor Reveals Why Bitcoin’s Most Disappointing Year was a HUGE SETUP | Simply SatoSHE · Simply Bitcoin

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  The end of the year is almost here and Bitcoin is down nearly
• 0:03
  10%. That alone wouldn't be weird.
• 0:06
  I mean Bitcoiners thrive off maximum pain.
• 0:09
  Except 2025 was supposed to be the breakout year and now
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  everyone I orange peeled AT125K is texting me with the same
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  question. What the is going on?
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  That is the question hanging over this entire market right
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  now, and something that happened just a few days ago might
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  finally help explain why Bitcoin's price is is negative
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  and why the fear narrative has taken over.
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  Recently. One of the biggest Bitcoin bulls
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  in history, Michael Saylor, quietly signaled something
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  important. He suggested that 2025 may not
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  be failure at all, but the setup pointing straight to 2026.
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  And once you hear how he explains it, the price action
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  this year starts to make a lot more sense.
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  I think that the more important point is the last 12 months have
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  been probably the best 12 months in the history of the industry
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  in, in terms of fundamentals and it's it's profound what's
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  happened since December. I'm Sophie, This is Satoshi.
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  Let's break it down. If you're like me, the end of
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  the year vibes are hitting hard. The holidays are wrapping up.
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  New Year's Eve is coming. Everyone's pretending they're
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  excited about seed oils and overpriced drinks.
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  Gross. But underneath that, there's a
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  deeper frustration Bitcoiners especially are feeling because
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  we just lived through one of the most bullish news cycles Bitcoin
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  has ever seen. ETF's political signaling,
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  institutional adoption, and still the price action has been
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  brutal. Two or three years ago, these
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  same headlines would have sent Bitcoin up 10X without blinking.
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  So why isn't it happening now? That exact question is what
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  Michael Saylor addressed recently on Alex Thorne's
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  podcast, and the way he framed it changes how you look at this
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  entire year. Play the clip.
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  It's been quite a ride this year.
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  New all time highs now. I mean when we interviewed you
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  last year around around this time about a year ago, Bitcoin
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  had just crossed 100K for the first time.
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  Today it's rating at 87 K Why? Why did Bitcoin underperform
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  this year? You know, it's, it's the world's
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  greatest free market in capital and 85% of the Bitcoin, you
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  know, notwithstanding all of the corporations that have been
• 2:29
  inquiring at the people talk about, you know, Black Rock and
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  strategy to get all the publicity, but 85% of the
• 2:35
  Bitcoin is held in crypto OG hands.
• 2:38
  We can't even identify them. You know, and I talked to the
• 2:41
  traders, they say that, you know, the, the derivatives
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  market, the perpetual market drives this much more than spot,
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  which means the $1.7 trillion worth of, of capital that can be
• 2:53
  20X or 30X levered is held by people that we don't know.
• 2:57
  And so I think that that in the near term, their moods and their
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  drivers drive this market. And, and I guess that's the
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  beauty of free market capitalism.
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  But I think that the more important point is the last 12
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  months have been probably the best 12 months in the history of
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  the industry in terms of fundamentals.
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  And it's, it's profound what's happened since December.
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  So Sailor's Point is subtle but important. 2025 isn't the payoff
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  year, it's the setup. It's like that new show on Apple
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  TV, Pluribus. Yeah, lots of, lots of setup
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  there for the next season. But I'm excited because it's a
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  great show. And that's exactly what's
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  happening with Bitcoin. That's kind of the way that you
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  have to look at it. And if that still feels
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  unsatisfying, stay with me because this is where the plot
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  thickens. There's another clip that helps
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  to explain why bitcoins price has been suppressed even with
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  all the bullish fundamentals. Bitcoin is the only asset right
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  now not rallying and I think the best place to start today's
• 4:01
  show, Nico, is looking at something called the PMI cycle.
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  So This is why is a little bit of a traditional finance
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  concept, but essentially the chart we're going to be breaking
• 4:13
  down, it shows us what the economy is doing.
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  And what's really interesting is we can see when this green line
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  is expanding and when it's going up and it's rising above this
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  very important fifty level. That's the white dotted line in
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  the middle of this chart. This is coincided with Bitcoin
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  bull runs. But what's really interesting
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  about this metric today is it showed that the traditional
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  economy has essentially been in a contraction for the past three
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  years. And this is, I think a cycle
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  that not a lot of people are looking at in the space.
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  Everybody's looking at the four year cycle.
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  They're reading the tea leaf astrologies.
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  A lot of people are kind of looking around for explanations
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  as to what's going on with the Bitcoin price.
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  So Nico, I think I'd love your thoughts.
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  Is it the four year cycle? Is it the business cycle?
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  Is it the halving? What is more important for
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  Bitcoin? Man, I think Bitcoin is a
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  liquidity thermometer. Easy money, it goes up.
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  Tight money, it goes down. And yes, Niko's absolutely
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  cooking here. My working theory is simple.
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  This isn't Bitcoin underperforming, This is just a
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  system being misused. The Federal Reserve hasn't been
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  tight. They've been actively deciding
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  who gets to credit and who doesn't.
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  That's favoritism, not neutral policy.
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  It's politics, pure and simple. And when credit gets
• 5:47
  misallocated, everything breaks, including Bitcoin.
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  Higher prices, slower wage growth, housing affordability
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  stagnates, asset markers stuck in limbo.
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  Bitcoin doesn't escape that environment.
• 6:00
  It actually just reflects it right back.
• 6:02
  All right, quick pause because I need to show you something that
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  So what happens when an already politicized Fed collides with
• 8:17
  Trump back in the White House? Predictably, chaos.
• 8:21
  Trump has openly threatened Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding
• 8:25
  faster rate cuts, even floating the idea of firing him.
• 8:29
  Just sweet. I'd be honest.
• 8:32
  I'd love to fire his ass. He should be fine guys.
• 8:35
  Grossly incompetent, and he should be sued for spending $4
• 8:40
  billion to build a little building.
• 8:44
  I'm building a ballroom that's going to cost a tiny fraction of
• 8:48
  that, and it's bigger than the whole thing put together.
• 8:52
  You got to work in him, Scott. The only thing Scott's blowing
• 8:56
  it on is the Fed. Because the Fed?
• 9:01
  The rates are too high, Scott. And if you don't get it fixed
• 9:04
  fast, I'm going to fire your ass, OK?
• 9:09
  I can't tell you. Scott.
• 9:11
  Sir, don't fire him. He's got Sir.
• 9:15
  Please don't fire him. He's got three months to go.
• 9:18
  Don't fire him. I want to get him out.
• 9:20
  Scott, please. He's a voice of reason.
• 9:23
  You're very lucky you have him. I'll tell you that.
• 9:26
  Done a good job. I think Howard's a little bit
• 9:32
  more for firing, right? Howard?
• 9:35
  I think Howard would say get him the hell out of there.
• 9:37
  They tried to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, the court
• 9:40
  shut that down and then Trump's team puts Stephen Moran on the
• 9:44
  Fed board, still tied to the White House.
• 9:47
  And when the Fed votes on quarter point cuts, Moran is the
• 9:51
  only one saying not enough. Cut deeper slave.
• 9:55
  That's not subtle. Critics warn this risks
• 9:58
  inflation and politically driven monetary policy.
• 10:01
  But here's the other side that no one wants to admit.
• 10:04
  A Fed that keeps tightening out of spite can destroy real wealth
• 10:08
  just as effectively. And when asset holders get
• 10:12
  crushed long enough, the consequences get ugly.
• 10:15
  It will. Be the deep, that's especially
• 10:17
  real estate. I totally agree with that and I
• 10:21
  think in taxation. Just like the the, the and I
• 10:26
  love Steve Bannon, so I don't want like my our last discussion
• 10:28
  to come across as a criticism of, of Steve, but I mean, he's
• 10:31
  going to run for president on the on just a straight Elizabeth
• 10:36
  Warren wealth tax economic agenda.
• 10:39
  Actually. Yeah, he's going to run for
• 10:41
  president and say take the money from those people who have way
• 10:45
  too much of it, the Bill Hackman's of the world, and I
• 10:48
  want to give it to you. I wonder if that has it ever.
• 10:52
  It always seems like those people flee the country.
• 10:55
  I mean, Miami is filled. The people who fled other
• 10:58
  countries. Exactly.
• 10:59
  That's exactly right. And they live in splendor, not
• 11:04
  attacking them, but like they didn't give up their money, they
• 11:07
  just left. And then the middle class, upper
• 11:09
  middle, upper middle class especially just get hammered.
• 11:12
  And that is the core of your society, right?
• 11:15
  It, it won't last that way. And, you know, Trump's elections
• 11:19
  have been, I think, a reaction to that broader trend we've
• 11:22
  experienced for decades. And you know what?
• 11:25
  I, what I hope it doesn't happen is that it just becomes a policy
• 11:28
  race to the bottom to try to, you know, throw insufficient
• 11:33
  solutions at that. You know, things like, well,
• 11:35
  we'll just give them free houses.
• 11:36
  We'll just give them free healthcare.
• 11:38
  The robots will just build the houses in national parks.
• 11:41
  Right, right. And that, wouldn't that be
• 11:43
  awful? This isn't left versus right,
• 11:46
  it's savers versus the system. OK, math shouldn't be political,
• 11:50
  but here we are. And before we wrap this video
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  in the description below. So what do you think?
• 12:43
  Is this just politics as usual or are we watching the
• 12:47
  groundwork being laid for a massive shift in 2026?
• 12:51
  Do you want more presidential control over the Fed or less
• 12:55
  central planning altogether? I know what I want.
• 12:57
  Drop your hot takes in the comments, I read them all.
• 13:01
  If this helped you cut through the noise.
• 13:03
  Smash the like button, subscribe and turn on the notifications
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  for Bitcoin only signal. I'll see you in the next one.
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  Until then, stack, slay and stay bullish, baby.