Latest / Mike Check - A College Football Podcast / COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 6: BIG GAME PREVIEWS, PICKS & PREDICTIONS
Transcript
- Jackson: Hello everyone. Welcome back. My name's Jackson. That's Davis. This is the Mike Check Podcast. apologies in advance. We're a little bit late this week. had some things happen. Nothing too crazy. Just scheduling conflicts and weren't able was not able to film earlier this week. So try to get this out. This is Thursday night. Try to get this out as soon as possible tomorrow morning. So but yeah. Davis, what's going on? Davis: Everything's going well, thanks with you. Jackson: Good. I feel like I ask you this every week and I we both have the sam same answer. Davis: I know, maybe we should change it up a little bit. Y every time you ask me, I'm like, same old, same on, just been Jackson: Maybe maybe you need to intro the show from now on. I'm kinda getting tired of hearing my voice. But Davis: We'll switch it up a little bit. Jackson: maybe we need to do a little switch room halfway through the season. But all right. So we got a lot to get to today. We'll do the previews, picks, plays of the week. and then we'll do our fantasy at the end. So a lot to a lot to get to today, so we'll go ahead and and jump into it. Game of the week this week in college football. Number two, Georgia travels to Tuscaloosa to face number six. Bama line here has moved. Actually, it's now Bama one and a half over under has dropped because of the the hurricane heading towards Tuscaloosa under over-under set of 52 and a half. it's a big game. It's always a big game. Kirby Smart playing against his former team. obviously last time they Davis: And I have that stat off the I have that stat ready. Kirby Smart's two and seven Jackson: Yeah. Davis: against Alabama. Jackson: Is he t yeah, I forgot. Championship. And then last year they they just, you know, smoked him in the SEC Davis: Yeah. Jackson: championship game. So so yeah, it's it's always a big game. I think just kind of jumping into the keys of the game for me, Keelan Russell and Alabama's offense have just been like dynamite. They've been explosive, they've been efficient. So to me, if you're Georgia, you have to find a way to slow that offense down. Somehow, some way. Georgia has a great defense, but at the same time you could argue that they haven't played any good offenses yet. Arkansas, Vandy, and Oklahoma. So three teams in the SEC that are not necessarily known for their offense. So it'll be a big change of pace on Saturday with Keelan Russell. Davis: Yeah, and they haven't played great teams, but they've done what they're supposed to against lesser teams. And I don't wanna get into the whole like just because we haven't seen them do it against great teams doesn't mean they can't do it against great teams. You know, th th Jackson: Yeah, I agree. Davis: there's nothing like I stru I struggle with this game 'cause when I like dive into the numbers I try to find, you know, where where's an edge, where's a a mismatch that you can That one of these teams can try to exploit, try to put myself into the shoes of, you know, one of these coordinators and saying, If this was me, what would I try to attack? And I'm just diving through the numbers and it's like, Georgia's great against the run. well, Alabama's great run of the ball. And it's just you just go down the list and it's like, I mean, i it it's a reason why these two teams are the top two teams in the nation. I think that The winner of this game declares themselves as the best team through six weeks. Alabama's been playing great. Georgia's great. and and funny enough, the SEC champion has been one of these two teams for nine of the last ten years. only year that was not one of these two teams was LSU in twenty nineteen. So we've gotten to see a lot of these teams against each other. like you said, Alabama's kind of had their number, especially during Nick Saban. did Kirby give Nick Saban his first loss to a former assistant? Jackson: I think it was actually Jimbo Fisher at A and I believe that was the first one. I could be wrong on that, but I believe that is correct. so going back in this game, at least in the regular season, It's they've they've been great games. I mean, Bama's gotten the best of them in the regular season the past few years, but I think the key, like when you go back and really study those games, is with the Calen De Boer team specifically, Calin De Boer has had a plan, a new plan for his offense and for his quarterback in both of those games that Georgia hasn't seen yet, that was not on tape. Two years ago was Milro in the run place. the different design run plays that Georgia hasn't hadn't seen yet on film. And then last year with Ty Simpson, I feel like there was a lot more play action, like gadget plays, if you will, that that weren't on the tape. So I think it'll be interesting to see if Deborah and Grubb have something up their sleeve for for Keelan Russell in this game. you know Georgia's gonna throw all the blitz packages and and different looks at him that that they can. One stat that that I saw was that Keelan Russell When he's not blitzed, has a seventy-nine percent completion rate, which is sixth in the country. When he is blitzed, that drops to sixty percent, which is seventy-seventh in the country. And then Georgia blitzes the eighth most, they have the eighth highest blitz rate in the country. So they're they're gonna be coming. And I think if you're Alabama and Calen DeBoor and Ryan Grubb, you you've gotta know that. So I think maybe try to scheme up some plays and draw some plays up that are a little bit easier to have success against the blitz. So then it just becomes kind of a chess match. I mean, if you're Georgia, do you kind of change your whole defense and not blitz? Or do you just kind of go all in and hope that your guys can get home and and rattle Keelan Russell? Because the the danger of that is he's been so explosive and so accurate throwing the ball downfield that usually when you're playing a team that blitz a lot, They're kind of just trusting the corners to make those plays and trusting that the quarterb the opposing quarterback's not going to make that throw. But Keelan Russell has shown that he can make the the downfield throws. So it'll be interesting. It'll it'll definitely be interesting to see that matchup and how those sides of the ball scheme up against each other. I really found it hard to like pick a winner in this game. Like you said, it's just It's best on best. I know Georgia hadn't played anybody, but at the same time, I mean, look at the logo. You know they're gonna be good. You know what you're getting. You're getting a physical team that's very good on defense. Georgia offensively hasn't been just outstanding against against their opponents. haven't been bad, but they haven't just mopped it up with with scoring points. sorry, I'll I'll pause there for a second. You got any any comments on On the rant I just had. Davis: no, I think it is worth noting just how good Keelan Russell has been in the run game. Georgia does have obviously they have amazing talent. One to watch out for is their linebacker, Chris Cole. just a freak, sideline to sideline linebacker. do want to see how they deploy him if it's I know they they blitz him a little bit, but could use him as a spy. could drop him uncovered, so I'm interested to see how he is utilized in this game. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, so we've talked about Georgia's defense against Bama's offense. I think I think the key there is you you have to keep Bama in the low thirties or or upper twenties. I don't think Georgia's gonna score in the mid to high thirties in this game. They may touch thirty, but if I had to predict their score it'd be probably mid to upper twenties. another Davis: I mean, th th this game is between Alabama, who is first in the nation scoring offense against P four opponents with fifty points per game, against Georgia, who's third in the country against P four opponents at forty one point three. So don't want you Jackson: Yeah. Davis: to sell Georgia's offense too short. Jackson: Okay, here's a stat on Georgia's offense. First off, they played Vandy. P4 opponents opponents were Vandy, Arkansas. I know Oklahoma's got a good defense, but there were basically two defensive touchdowns in that game. A Davis: Yeah. Jackson: little little fun fact on on Gunnar Stockton. So they have not really pushed the ball downfield. I know we're filming this late, and maybe everyone's already seen this, but Gunnar Stockton has only attempted thirty passes on the season that have traveled more than ten air yards. So Davis: Wow. Jackson: it it hadn't been a lot of downfield passing. It's been a lot of short routes where his receivers are just taken off with it. They have a lot of yard after catch numbers. I don't think I thought I put that stat on here, but maybe I didn't. but their their yak, their yard after catch has been just insane in a lot of these games. So in that stat, the you know, not throwing More than thirty passes ten yards down the field is also kind of crazy when you're five games through the season. But because, you know, ten yards is that's n I wouldn't call that a deep ball. Like ten yards Davis: Yeah. Jackson: is a pretty s pretty standard pass. So I think the key for Bama's defense is is put make him uncomfortable. I mean, you gotta stop the run and put them in in situations where he's gotta throw the ball downfield. Take away the underneath stuff and and I'm I'm not Davis: And and to add on to that, Georgia right now, you said they love to stay ahead of the chains. that's evident in you know, they don't ask Stockton to do to do a lot. They run the ball with Nate Frazier. their third down, average third down distance is second in the country. So when they have third downs, they're typically in a third and short, and that's because they're such a good running like They stay ahead ahead of the chains, whether that's running the ball, whether that's screen passes, getting the ball in their playmakers' hands. What's interesting is that Alabama is one of the better Alabama's defense is one of the better defenses at like creating havoc, whether that's tackle for losses, sacks, batted balls. So I think that I think that if Alabama can get Georgia in third and longs, you're gonna put a lot of pressure onto Gunnar Stockton. And I just I just haven't been impressed with him like even dating back to the previous years with when the pressure's on him, can he like r rise above it, so to speak? Great game Jackson: Yeah. Davis: manager, but don't know if he can, I guess, be that bus driver. Jackson: Yeah, and I I mean I'm I'm reading all these stats about Gunnar Stockton. He's not a freshman, he's not a rookie. I mean, he's been he's been in this offense for a few years now. So, you know, he can do it. I'm just saying he hasn't done it yet, and it's a big start on the road. So I know we've kind of rambled a lot here, given a lot of analysis. I think to me it's a coin flip. King George's offense Davis: Yeah. Jackson: slowed down Bama. I know the weather may be a factor. I think the latest thing I've seen is that it should be gone by kick, but Georgia's got to slow that offense down and Bama's got to stop the run on the other side and and make him throw the ball. So I'm gonna go with I'm gonna go with Bama here. Coin flip game. I'll take the home team. I like Keelan Russell and the explosive offense to just be able to outscore Georgia. I think I think they'll put up some points. Davis: Yeah, you literally took the words right out of my mouth. I was gonna say fifty fifty, give me the home team. Jackson: Yeah. Base I'll I would have I mean, I probably would've gotten Georgia in this game if if this was an Athens, but I'll ride with Bama. Davis: It is worth noting Nate Fraser was on the injury report, Georgia's running back. Okay, I just looked it up. No longer on the injury report. So I guess Jackson: Yeah, but their other back is out. Davis: What'd you say? Jackson: Their other back is out. Their back up or I guess I don't know if they use him in like pass passing downs or or how they use that specific guy, but he is he is I think inactive for the Obama game. All right. Next game, number twenty one UCLA, who is off to a four-no start under Bob Chesney. Goes to Eugene to take on number thirteen, Oregon. Both teams coming off of buys. Both teams are also coming off of you know fairly big wins. UCLA beat Maryland fifty four to three. and then Oregon obviously got the win against USC with Dylan Real coming in forty one to twenty seven. Initial thoughts on this Davis: Yeah. And Jackson: game? Davis: yeah, so Dante Moore, who had the concussion two weeks ago against USC, he was ruled out, I believe, yesterday. I don't think most people expected him to to play in it anyways, but is worth noting. So we will get to see another game of Dylan Riola. so these these are two teams obviously came over from the Pac twelve. Oregon's own this series. They've won eight straight at audson, and then eleven of the last twelve in total. but this is probably the best UCLA team that we've seen in recent memory. I mean dating back to what the Brett Hunley days from like ten years ago. Jackson: Long time ago. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, they're they're definitely rolling. I think they've surprised a lot of people, including myself. They run the ball Davis: Yeah. Jackson: well. Their defense has been pretty dang good. I hate to keep bringing this up, but they haven't really played anyone yet. I mean, this is gonna be their first major test, so we'll find out a lot about UCLA and how good they really are going on the road to Eugene to play Oregon. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: so I To me if you're organ like Is this like kind of a get right game? Like, you know, you won you beat USC, you gotten a little bit of a rhythm in the second half of that game. Like against a team like UCLA, who is good but not great, you get him at home. Like, I don't know. I just feel like the talent gap in this game is pretty pretty significant. So I like UCLA, I like what they're doing, but I don't know. Part of me is like Is this where we see like the real organ? You know, you come out of the bye week, you allow Dylan Rillo to have two weeks of practice where he's the guy, where he's the starter, get used to the offense. Like I don't know. I I I really don't know what to feel on this game, to be honest with you. Davis: Yeah, and you just start looking at the numbers and if you take away who the team name is and the talent on each of their their teams, this this doesn't look close. I mean, UCLA like favors like the stats favor UCLA in every single category pretty much and you just run down the list and and I mean it it it all comes back to the talent and and You know, you have to bake in what what each team is supposed to be. But I mean U C L A has looked impressive. Th they don't ask much of Nico Imalayava, just they run the ball so much. I believe they're top five in rush attempts per game and it makes sense why, because they're number one in the country in EPA per rush. So why would you why would you not just run the ball as many opportunities as you can? Jackson: Yeah. I I think I think that the the thing in this game that may kind of stump UCLA is they're gonna run into a defense that is not like they've seen before. So I think there might be some more pressure on I Amaleava. with that being said, I mean he's he's a guy, he's a veteran, he's played in the SEC, he's had a year under his belt at UCLA. So I think he'll be able to weather a little bit of that storm. are you first here on the on the pick? Davis: Yeah, I th I think so and I'll kinda run through my pick real quick. already talked about how UCLA is first in the in in the country in rushing success rate and first in rushing EPA per play. So they are able to stay ahead of the chains consistently. which is good. however, they do struggle when they get into third and longs, as do ever as does every team, but they rank towards the bottom of the college football when they get in third and longs. All that to say is Oregon struggles immensely in the early down. they rank 129th in early down EPA per play. So I really think that UCLA is just gonna be able to run the ball, stay ahead of the the chains, don't ask too much of Nico Yamala, and I think that this game will be closer than what a lot of people are thinking. So I like Jackson: If we want to go get this happening so it's around the time. Davis: The plus eleven and a half here. Jackson: Yeah. I was I was getting there a second ago. I agree. I think I think they'll be able to run the ball. I think it may not be as successfully as they have in the past, but I think, you know, given the numbers that they put up on the rushing attack, being first in what rush yard first in rush CP eight, right? Yeah for play. Davis: Yeah, and success rate. Jackson: Yeah. So I don't think that's just gonna dissolve by any means. I think they'll still be able to have somewhat of a decent ground game and I think I think they'll keep it close. I think Nico's experience will definitely like benefit them in this game. I think when you have a like a a young quarterback going on the road, that's when things kind of start to get concerning. But he's an experienced guy, so I think he'll be able to weather the storm and keep this within the eleven and a half. So I'll take UCLA as All right. Number seven Indiana. Going to Lincoln to play Nebraska. Line here is seven. Indiana. What you got for this one? Davis: Yeah, two five and teams. is Nebraska back? Jackson: So I was listening to I can't remember who it was. I think it was maybe Bud Elliott. He and he was saying like you have two five and teams, everyone's kind of overreacting a little bit about Nebraska. But like when we did the the schedule pickems before the season started, I think most people had Nebraska going five and to this point in the season. Like they haven't had any wins that you would think shouldn't be wins. They haven't beat anyone they're not supposed to. And they've just Davis: They are what we thought they'd be. Jackson: Right. They are what we thought they'd be. So like, yes, they're five and but I think everyone saw the five and coming. And also I think everyone is seeing the writing on the wall for this game. At least I am. to me these are two teams that are not similar when it comes to talent wise. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: coaching, I think Indiana has the edge. Quarterback, I think Indiana has the edge. Although I'm not super sold on Josh Hoover yet, but I just think with Indiana's version game Davis: I don't think you have to be sold on Josh Hoover to accept that Anthony Calandria is playing well, but it was very flawed, especially last year. I mean, he struggled. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: I'm gonna pull up his his stats from last year. He's playing well, I'll give him credit. They don't ask much of him and they do a lot of quarterback design runs, which I mean he's been good at. I don't want to take anything away from him. Jackson: Yeah. I mean Nebraska's defense ranks eighty-fifth in a rush EPA per play. I know we kind of reference that stat a lot. And Indiana's a team that if they if you let they will run the ball all day long. So I Davis: Yeah. Jackson: think it's gonna be hard to to win this game if you're Nebraska. I'm gonna take Indiana minus seven, but I'm gonna kind of paint my picture for how Nebraska wins this game or covers the spread, if there is a way. So I said I wasn't sold on Josh Hoover. So I think somehow, some way you gotta stop the run game. You gotta stop the run game and you gotta make him beat you with his arm. We mentioned on the show before that he has not thrown an interception yet, which is was a big problem when he was a TCU. And I just think he hadn't thrown an interception because they have pretty you know, they've handled pretty much every game they've played pretty, pretty easily, except for that northwestern game. where their offense just wasn't able to score at all, and neither was Northwestern. So yeah, I I just I think you gotta make him beat you with his arm i if you're Nebraska. But you know, it's hard to do when one of the weaknesses of your defense is just stopping the run. So yeah. I just you gotta you gotta re you gotta make the turnover problem thing come back somehow if you're Nebraska and and get him routed a little bit if you're gonna win. Davis: Yeah. So we accept Nebraska is Jackson: yeah. Davis: pretty good run team. We accept that Northwestern, pretty good run team. Indiana only gave up thirty-two rushing yards to Northwestern. I think that Nebraska could be into a in a similar boat after this game on Saturday. I mean Nebraska ranks eleventh in the P four in Russian yards per game, but they've done it against Maryland, Michigan State, North Dakota, Bowling Green, and Ohio. Indiana has b one of the best Russian defenses in the country, and I don't see them having anywhere close to the same success. I think that this is like when you line up the numbers, you say, it's strength on strength. I don't think that we're in the same tier or vicinity when it comes to Indiana's run defensive strength against Nebraskas. I think that this is actually gonna be a fourteen plus game. So I like Indiana here. Big. Jackson: Yeah, and I another thing someone mentioned was that this is Indiana's first road game other than at Rutgers, which I guess doesn't really count as a a true like road environment. But I I don't know that that really matters. I mean, like you said last week, I know it wasn't super evident in the Florida game, but usually your run game travels. So if they're able to run the ball, I do not see Nebraska having any chance. I don't Davis: Someone smart said that last week and it was completely wrong. Jackson: Yeah. I I think Nebraska may be able to scheme some stuff up for Calandria, maybe in the run game, like using him using his legs, but I think all that's short lived. Maybe you'll see some some early points out of the gate from scripted plays and s and scripted drives and stuff like that. But once this game gets rolling, I just think Indiana will wear him down. And I'm with you. I think this game should be more like fourteen. I think the The Nebraska five and against those five opponents is it's a little bit of a overreaction with the with what the spread is. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. Jackson: Alright, number ten LSU heading over to Lexington to play Kentucky, who is not ranked for whatever reason. They they won their game last week and they were ranked, but they dropped. So that's the A P poll for ya. spread now is L S U minus eight and a half over underset of fifty two and a half. Davis: Yeah. I mean, Kentucky's coming off one of the wildest wins of the college football season last week. We'll be interesting to see how they, you know, respond to an emotional game. Funny enough, Kentucky's actually won the last two matchups against LSU in Lexington. You had the forty two twenty one game in twenty twenty one, which you see at the bottom of the screen. and then you had the infamous forty-three thirty-seven triple overtime game where Kentucky upset number one overall LSU. I believe LSU still went on to win the national championship with two losses before the the playoff days, but wild game nonetheless. So maybe we'll get a a back and forth game on Also a night game. Is that right? Seven PM Eastern? Jackson: Yeah. Yep, that's correct. yeah, Kentucky's just getting better and better. You know, they had a really good quarter half against Alabama. They go on the next week on the road and beat AM, in at Kyle Field, like pretty convincingly. I mean the score was thirty one twenty one, but they were in control of that game the whole way. And then last week you go on the road again to Columbia and take care of South Carolina in overtime. So I just think there's a lot of momentum behind this team. I think Will Stein's a great coach. If I'm a Kentucky fan, I'm very happy in the direction that that I'm headed in. I like Kenny Minchy. I think he's I think he's decent enough to like do what they're asking him to do. And yeah, I mean one part of Kentucky's team that I think is extremely underrated is their offensive line. I know we talked Davis: Yeah. Jackson: about it in that A and game, but they are moving people around and yeah, they're just getting better. Davis: I they completely rebuilt that offensive line in one transfer portal cycle. I think they got three of the top five O linemen and it's it's made all the different difference in the world. that run game is led by CJ Baxter, who has three hundred and sixty one yards and six touchdowns, and then Jason Patterson, who has three hundred and fifty five yards. just another team that runs the ball well. feel like we continue to say this throughout this this podcast episode. Jackson: Go ahead go ahead with your LSU stats on on their defense, Davis. Davis: All that to say, LSU's average are allowing Jackson: Yeah. Davis: only forty seven point five rushing yards per game and that was against power four opponents. I think LSU has has the best D line in the country. led by Prince Will Uman Maelin. practiced that before I practiced that and I and I I think I butchered it still. but He leads the country in in stats in sacks though. And that LSU team is second nationally in twenty-two sacks. Kentucky has given up eleven sacks. So while they've been very good in the run game, they are prone to pass protection. So if Kentucky can't stay ahead of the chains chains, I think that LSU can wreak some havoc and in the past game. Jackson: I don't honestly you know, I tried to think of a way to to come back on this. I think Kentucky, like you said, has been really good running the ball, but the the the downside of that is LSU's strengths on the other side of the ball match up perfectly to what Kentucky's offensive strengths are. So it's strength on strength. I think L SU's got one of the best run defenses in the country and I think Kentucky, you know, obviously as we've talked about for the last five minutes, have is a really good rushing team. all that being said, I think Not having Wit Weeks is a pretty big deal. I think he's a big part of a lot of those defensive numbers and you know he's your leader and you're going on the road playing Kentucky who you know they're missed kind of a big chance to get a home win against Bama. A lot of hype behind that game. You had the coach calling for fans to get there early. To me, if you're if you're Will Stein, you're prepping for this game a lot like you did the Bama game. You have a Elite defense. I don't think Sam Levitz as good as Keelan Russell is, but you got a pretty dang good offense with LSU as well. So I don't think he's gonna miss his chance again. May I'm not gonna I'm not gonna be so bold to call the upset, but I definitely think Kentucky can keep it within the eight and a half. not having Wit Weeks and also this is just kind of a vibes thing. I think if if you're going just off numbers, LSU makes the most sense to cover this spread. But I I'm I'm more of a vibes guy, so so give me Kentucky to to cover this one. Davis: Yeah, so I I will read off a couple more stats that I like here. specifically about the LSU defense. They're number one in the country in average third down distance. So that distance is eight point nine. so that's the average down in distance that the opposing offense faces on third down. So on average a third and nine, which is crazy to think about. Kentucky is number nineteenth in average third and down distance on their offense. So they're facing or they're they are usually up against more manageable third downs. And all that kind of fits into what we've been saying with with their run game and and how LSU can wreak havoc. Jackson: sweet. Davis: But I think that that's the the key stat to to look out for. If LSU can continue to put them in third and longs, I don't think it'll be close. that's what I'm expecting. So give me the LSU Jackson: I think Davis: minus the the points here. Jackson: All right, number one team in the country, Texas, plays Oklahoma and Dallas in the Red River Red River is it rivalry or Davis: Shootout Jackson: shootout? Davis: Shootout Jackson: Can we call this sh the Red River shootout? I mean, I think that's kinda Davis: Well that was what it wa that was what it was always called before before we didn't wanna talk about Jackson: For these teams' offense is decided to lay an egg. Davis: shooting guns and stuff, I guess. Jackson: All right. In the Red River shootout, Texas is favored by eight and a half over under set at thirty nine and a half. Davis: God, that's a low number. Is that the lowest number of the week? Jackson: I haven't checked the Iowa Washington total, but I'm sure that's right there in that same Davis: Yeah. Jackson: in that same boat. So yeah. Like I think this game's gonna be low scoring. to me there's not a lot of analysis you can put into this game. I think Texas's offense has been extremely underwhelming, but Davis: Yes. Jackson: Oklahoma's offense has been terrible and they're now playing one of the better defenses in the country. So like How in the world are you gonna score any points? So just some stats on Oklahoma's offense. EPA per play ranks 109. Success rate ranks 90th at 42%. Points per drive ranks second 72nd at 2.95. Rush EPA per play ranks 136th. And if I'm not mistaken, that is last in FBS, right? Are there 106 36 FPS teams? Close enough. Davis: Is there is there one thirty six or one thirty eight? Jackson: Cl tom tomato tomato. It's close enough. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: It I mean they're basically last in Roshi Paperplay. So like on the other side of that, Texas's defense ranks top twenty or better in all of those categories defensively. And then they rank number one in points per drive allowed. So like I mean, if you want to go based off numbers, this score should be over under set at thirty nine. Like I I just don't see Oklahoma scoring. a lot of points. agree with you. Davis: You you read off all those terrible offensive stats. it might be time to read off the great defensive stats. I've never seen a team that is so bad offensively, yet so good defensively. I mean, it's it's Jackson: Yeah. Davis: day and night. you just ran down the list for their offense, so I guess I'll do the due diligence and run through the list on defense. Number two, an EPA per pass. Number five, an EPA per rush. number four in early downs EPA per play, number three in third and fourth down success rate. Like it is just like a flip of the numbers across the board. It's insane. And and and I don't think Texas's offense is very good. So the thirty nine point total, and you were dead on. Washington, Iowa was the lowest, and this is the second lowest. Jackson: Yeah. So to make this analysis a little more like fun, I mean, we all we've hated on Oklahoma's offense. We've said Texas offense sucks, and both their defense is really good. So how do you win this game if you're Oklahoma? To me, I think you have to let John Mateer what John Mateer does best. And that is just playing backyard football. I don't know how you draw up a play to play backyard football because it's all like improv stuff, but To me, he's just gonna have to go out there, run around and make plays. Like there's nothing you can scheme up. I've th I think they've probably tried everything scheme wise, like drawing up plays and stuff like that. I just don't think anything's worked. And nothing is gonna work that you haven't already tried, I don't think, against this Texas defense. So Davis: And and the problem with not being able to run the ball is that I mean Texas knows that. a hundred percent of the time. Like they're the they're gonna have no respect for the run game. And Colin Simmons is gonna have himself Jackson: And they don't have to. Davis: a yeah, Colin Simmons is gonna have himself a day just like he did against Tennessee. And John Matir, yes, he struggled with turnovers. t to say it kindly. But another thing that he struggled with is taking sacks and holding on to the ball too long. yeah, this number is very low and I think I would still take an under on the the thirty nine Jackson: I would Davis: and a half. Jackson: Yeah, I would one hundred percent take an under thirty nine and a half. I don't think both these teams are getting to twenty. I I don't know. I just think Like, I don't know that Texas is gonna score a lot either. So it's just hard it was hard for me to pick this game. I'm gonna take Texas, I guess. I trust their offense a l more than I do Oklahoma's offense. not saying much. I still have a lot of doubts on on Texas, but I think Oklahoma is struggling a lot coming off a bye, but like You need a you needed like a well, I was gonna say you need like a a a bad G six school to kind of regain your confidence. But they played New Mexico. They play last week or is that two weeks ago? Davis: it wasn't last week. Jackson: Maybe they're not coming off a bye, I don't know. But anyway. Davis: No, I think they are they they are coming off a buy. It was like New Mexico was like right after the Michigan game. Jackson: Anyways, they have not shown that they can get anything going against anyone's defense. So yeah. I I can't pick Oklahoma in this game. I can't pick them to cover any kind of spread when they I don't think they'll score many points. So I'll take Texas to cover eight and a half. Davis: Yeah. so Oklahoma the thing that's been detrimental to the to their offense is the turnovers. It's been interceptions, it's been terrible fumbles. You're almost you almost get to the point where there's it's like it's no there's no shot that this continues the way that it is. and I I started to try to paint that picture and say, okay, if they just don't turn the ball over, you know, they've had some bad luck with, how things have broken, especially against Georgia. You take away the two two fumbles there and it's they don't lose by Jackson: yes. Davis: as much as they did, and it's probably a fifteen point game and people think about Oklahoma differently. And I started Jackson: Yeah. Davis: going down that hole, but then I just come back to even when they're not turning over the ball, they're not right, they're not able to move the ball whatsoever either. Like they are they they rank 116th in success rate. And so that's just your ability to move the ball consistently. so it's not even just turnovers. And I'm I'm giving it a a switch from what I told the graphics guy. and I'm going to take Texas here and I like and I and I kinda did it Jackson: The weekly switch room. Davis: on purpose because I've switched the last two weeks and the last two weeks I'm two and in switches. So hopefully I can make this three and and it's just gonna be a become a bit now. I'm just gonna have a a built Jackson: Yeah. Davis: in switch and you never know when it's coming. Jackson: Yeah, I mean I I can see where you're coming from when you kind of began that statement on like they moved the ball against Georgia. The c you know, the first fumble Mateer had, they were about to score until he dropped the ball and then Georgia ran it back for a touchdown. So I guess, you know, you can make an argument for that whatever they did on that drive was working, but it didn't work the rest of the game. So yeah, and and and coming back and trying to get it going against a team like Texas is just it's tough. so yeah. I'll definitely stick with Texas. All right, next game. Tex AM travels to Columbia to play number fourteen Missouri. Missouri coming off a big win. Last week beating Florida forty five seventeen. A finally gets their I guess you could say big win of the season. They they get a win against the SCC team. Arkansas thirty four seven. Is AM back or or no? Davis: I don't think so. They've been that offense has been terrible. they haven't been able to run the ball whatsoever. Marcel Reed has really struggled to say it lightly. I don't know what went wrong. I thought that Texas A was gonna be pretty good this year. I thought that they would I thought that Marcel Reed would take the next step and he's done the exact opposite. it's hard to make you know, sense of how like what has happened to Texas A and Yeah, I i Texas A and is one of those teams where I just I I just don't know. I don't know. Jackson: So me asking the question on if they were back is because I had kind of a whole slew of things or I have a whole th slew of things that I'd like to touch on, to make the argument that they are not back. So last week against Arkansas, you see they won thirty four to seven. They pretty much just like pounded the rock in that game. I mean, they ran the ball very well against an Arkansas defense who is like known for how bad their rush defense is. Like, spoiler alert, I'm taking Deshaun Bishop in fantasy, the Tennessee running back, because Arkansas's rush defense is terrible. So they only threw for like 170 yards last week. And so the AM obviously is gonna try to run the ball at this game. And Missouri just played one of the best rushing attacks in the SEC, maybe even in the country last week in Florida. So Missouri's defense is built to stop run first teams. not pass first teams. You they lost to Mississippi State. That's obviously a pass first team. I know Fluff Bothwell is like a very good running back, but you know, obviously the star of that team is Camario Taylor and the weapons at receiver. Missouri's defense ranked sixth versus the run and 32nd versus the pass, which is still not bad. And Marcel Reid i has not been able to throw the ball. on the flip side of that, Missouri's offense is definitely pass heavy. Austin Simmons. Has looked elite at times and AM's defense ranks eighty first in pass EPA per play. So I just think Simmons will be able to throw the ball all over this AM defense. I think this three and a half is kind of a trap line. I mean, we've seen it the last three weeks. Like Olmis beats LSU and they go on the road and you think that's the fishy line against Florida. Then Florida beats Ole Miss, they go on the road to Missouri and you're like, Why is Florida only minus four and a half? Well, then Missouri wins. Is this a is this the third time in a row where everyone's gonna get burned on this small of a line thinking Missouri's gonna whoop him? I just don't see it happening for AM. I just don't see a path that they can win this game unless Marcel Reid looks like the best version of himself. So I like Missouri a lot in this game, all that being said. Davis: Yeah, I think you're a lot more confident than I am in this. maybe it's just me reverting back to what Texas A and should be. I also don't wanna overindex on Missouri beating Florida last week, even though it was as as impressive as it was. I like I like Missouri here too. Missouri's defense, while very good against the run as seen last week against Florida, it is acceptable to giving up bigger plays. Well, Texas A and is one of the worst explosive offenses in the league. So I just I just don't think that that we're gonna get much offense out of Texas A and at least not enough to to, you know, hang with Austin Simmons in the way that he's playing right now. So I like Missouri minus three and a half, but I could definitely see me being wrong here. Jackson: Yeah, I think this is a game where Marcel Reid's gonna have to throw the ball and it's it just it hasn't looked pretty so far this year. So when you're going on the road and and you're you're playing against a defense that's that's good at stopping the run and you're forcing your quarterback to throw the ball that hadn't done, you know, anything through the air to this point in the season, I just I have a hard time seeing them. putting up as many points as Missouri's gonna score. I don't think this game's gonna be like super low scoring. I just think Missouri's offense has looked outstanding, even in the loss to to Mississippi State. So yeah, I I I like them to cover it a lot this week. Alright, a little bit of review. We are both on Bama minus one and a half. We're both on UCLA. We're both on Indiana. Davis, you were on LSU minus eight and a half. I'm on Kentucky plus eight and a half. We are both on Texas, because Davis switched his pick, and we're both on Missouri. Wow, we're only disagreeing on one pick. Davis: That's not great. or maybe it is really good. I guess we'll see. Jackson: Make a break. Make a break this week, Davis. All right. Some other notable games you wanna touch on any of these? Davis: Yeah, I think the Florida State Louisville game's probably of this list the one that I'm most interested in. Louisville kind of struggling. will be interesting to see like how they respond. They've had two losses in a row that I didn't s expect going into it. Florida State had a big win last week, so kind of two teams going in opposite trajectories. I'm excited to watch that one. Jackson: I think this is a huge game if you're Florida State. Like, especially a Florida State fan. Like if you go on the road and beat Louisville, I know Louisville's had some losses in the last few weeks, as you mentioned, but like that's a pretty good team. And to go on the road and get a win there would like kind of shift the momentum in that program. So definitely a big game there. I'll be interested to see if Wake is legit. playing N C State. I know NC State is not considered like a powerhouse, but Still, if they're able to go on the road and get another win. I mean they beat Stanford, what, fifty seven to three last week, so Gio Lopez has got that offense humming for sure. And then you got US C at Penn State. That is a quite the interesting game. Vibes are definitely low at Penn State. USC comes off the loss against Oregon. They g did get the win last week against Washington. So I think I think that'll be a good game. All right, plays of the week. You first, what you got? Davis: All right, for my first one. I like Memphis minus thirteen and a half over UAB. the reasoning really boiled down to Memphis's ability to push the ball downfield, which is like where UAB struggles the most on on defense. Memphis has Marcus Stokes, the quarterback who is playing really well. the reason that I may not be pushing this as much as I would have is the chance for inclement weather in Memphis at game time. so look out for the weather since this is kind of dependent on being able to push the ball downfield, which, you know, definitely limited in the rain. Jackson: Alright, for my first pick, I'm gonna go Ole Miss minus nine and a half at Vanderbilt. last time we saw Ole Miss was the loss to Florida. they got gashed all over the place in the run defense. just looked terrible. And I think Pete Golding is a coach that is not gonna just let something like that slide. They have a bye week last week, to kind of, you know, really s take everything in and and make some changes. So I like Ole Miss big this week in against Vanderbilt. I just don't think Vandy is as good as maybe some people think they are. I don't know. I thought this spread would be a little bigger than it was, so gimme Ole Miss to cover nine and half. Next pick, I'll take North Dakota State minus three. They got it done for me last week. I'll take them again. I've been high on UNLV at points in the season, but I am officially giving up. they played Cal last week. They did get the win, but showed that they were very vulnerable, especially on defense. Cal put up some points and that Cal offense has looked pretty bad at to this point in the season. So I think North Dakota State is kind of rolling here to start the twenty twenty six season and I like them to Stay undefeated against UNLV. Davis: All right, my next one, I have the Kansas team total under 19. so they play Utah in Utah. Utah hasn't given up more than 17 points all year. So they have one of the better defenses in the country. They lead the nation in points per drive allowed against FBS opponents. and then looking at Kansas's offense. in their power four opponents. they've only scored seventeen against Arizona State and then twenty-one against Missouri, which if you take off a blocked kick return for a touchdown, that offense only put up fourteen. So I don't think that Kansas gets to gets to nineteen here. Really like this one. For my next one, I'm going Tennessee Arkansas game under 51 and a half. in games involving Tennessee, the overunder is one and four, so the unders hit four times. I think that the total here, the higher numbers are kind of driven from the narrative that Tennessee's offenses run at such a a fast pace, which is no longer true. this is the slowest pace that Heipel has had Jackson: It's I think. Davis: offensively wise since he's been there. then you look at Arkansas's pace, and they ranked 40th. So above average. But when you look at time their pace when trailing, they drop to a hundred and fifth in the nation. So as soon as they start losing, they just pack it up and slow it down and try not to get beat by. a lot. So I think they go down early and I think that they slow it down and I think that this could be a really boring second half game. so I think it could be, twenty eight, ten, something like that. Jackson: Yeah. Alright, for my last game I'll go Tech San and Missouri over forty eight. I mentioned earlier. I think Austin Simmons in that offense is gonna just put in work against the A and defense. I did kinda trash the A and offense. I I just think forty eight's a kind of a low total. I think Missouri will score in the thirties. So Davis: Yeah, forty eight is a low total. Jackson: Yeah. I was kinda surprised, so not sure why that total is so low, but yeah, I like it. Alright, upset check. first I'm gonna take Iowa State. didn't love the board this weekend, to be honest. Like I just didn't see a lot of these teams I didn't think any of these teams could get the job done, but I'll take Iowa State. I know it's kind of crazy to pick someone to beat BYU on a Friday night in a night game, but I'll take Florida on Iowa State and see if they can get it done. Davis: Yeah, like you said, I didn't love the board either. so I took South Carolina, who is a plus three ninety underdog. That's a lot of points. if they can somehow get the upset. Florida's defenses look susceptible, so maybe we have a back and forth game. Maybe Lenore Sellers turns into the you know, the guy that everybody hoped that he would be a couple of years ago. Jackson: All right. Fantasy. let's see. How did you beat me? I think you did. Yeah, you did. Somebody go Davis: Yeah, it did be it was a low scoring week from both of us. Jackson: I beat you by you beat me by seven, dang. Yeah. So Davis: Yeah. I mean you're Jackson: came and Dickie had one point. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: my gosh. Davis: I mean outside of outside of Cam Cook and Caden Lee for me, this is a this is a terrible I just keep taking Jackson: Yeah. Davis: these tight ends that I that I think are gonna be good and then they put up like three points or like I just been I have not been able to pick a tight end. And the one week I take Jaden Baugh, he goes for thirteen total yards, so kinda wasted my bau pick, but at least I got a win. Okay. All right. Let me explain Jackson: So it's easier to follow. Davis: the game real quick. So for anybody that's new, Jackson and I pick a quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end flex each week. once we take a player, we can't take them in a future week. Once we take a player from that team, we can't take another player from that team. And once we have our five players, we add up the score like a normal fantasy team and we're keeping track throughout the week. and at the end of the season there will be a punishment. So far I am up I have a three and two record. I think we've alternated wins each each week. Alright, so since Jackson: I think you g you got me two in a row. Davis: okay. So since I won last week, I will take Michael Hawkins as my quarterback out of West Virginia. I think he's like top fifteen in rush yards as a quarterback. so expect to get a lot of points out of that that rushing attack led by Hawkins and Cam Cook. Jackson: Yeah, I thought about going the other quarterback in that game, but I'm going to go I'm gonna go Drew Mass to Maker, Oklahoma State. I just think they're playing at home. He's been on a tear. The team has too, so I'll take him to have a big week this week. Davis: All right, I will take Charlie Becker. a lot of this game is having is knowing when to take a team that doesn't have a complete blowout, which Indiana usually does. I think they're gonna have to put up numbers against Nebraska. So like this matchup here. Jackson: All right. I'm gonna go Deshaun Bishop, running back out of Tennessee. I said it earlier. I just think Arkansas has a terrible run defense. So I I think Tennessee playing on the road, gonna look to run the ball a lot. So I like Deshaun Bishop. Davis: Yep. Taking a running back that goes up against Arkansas has been a good play so far this year. Alright, so for my flex player I will take Wyatt Young, Drew Mestermaker's number one target. So if Mestermaker has a big game for you, I'll at least get some points to Jackson: That's mean too. Davis: Well Jackson: I'll you're next, right? Me? Davis: I guess it's you Jackson: Alright, for my next guy, I'll take receiver Carlos Hernandez at a wake. We want to talk about a guy that's been tearing it up. This guy has been putting up some some real numbers. I don't like that they're going on the road this week, but NC State's defense is not shown that they are very good. So I think I think they'll have a big week again this week. So give me Carlos Hernandez. Davis: Right. I will take LSU's running back Dylan Jones against Kentucky. Jackson: Mm-hmm. Davis: All right, your next pick. Jackson: So what do we do? All right, give me Preston Douglas, tight end N T State. You know how I get my tight ends. I don't need to say it again. Next man up, let's go Preston. Davis: All right. Y'all know how I get my tight ends. I just take the tight end that Jackson took the week before. Even though Jackson: Mm. Davis: they do better for you, I will take Patrick Overmeyer. Come on down. Jackson: All right, my last pick, I'll take Caden Lee. That's my flex, Missouri. Davis: All right, so that rounds out the squad. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: I have Michael Hawkins at quarterback, Dylan Jones, LSU running back, Charlie Becker, Indiana wide receiver, Patrick Overmeyer, Houston tight end, and Wyatt Young, Oklahoma State wide receiver in my flags. Jackson: All right, I Drew Messmaker, quarterback, Deshaun Bishop, Tennessee running back, Carlos Hernandez, wide receiver, Wake Forrest, my tight end is Preston Douglas at NC State, and my flex is Caden Lee, wide receiver at Missouri. Did do the mic check? I did not. Should we punt it this week? Alright, Davis: I don't know how to I'm good to just We're already a little long, I guess, right? Jackson: alright. We'll punt the mic check this week. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: we'll do it next week though. We gotta stay on it. That's kind of our or the mic drop. What'd I say? The mic check? Mic drop. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: So that's kind of our thing. So we gotta we gotta pick that back up next week. You kinda lost your mic drop enthusiasm. I need you to pick it back up a little bit, so Davis: Well, I I felt like it wasn't being reciprocated. Jackson: Dude, as soon as you s got sad about it, I started picking up the slack because I didn't want you to be sad. So we'll get we'll get it back going next week. But all right. Anything anything else you got? I know it's we've gone a little late here and filming late too, so try Davis: Yeah. Jackson: to get this out. Hey, SAP. Sorry guys. Been a long week. Yankees lost. I've been sad. Davis: Braves lost. Jackson: Braves lost. Just just wanna Davis: You know who's not gonna lose this weekend though? Alvern. Alvern I know. Thank God. Jackson: Bama? Auburn. Auburn. They don't have a game this weekend. There you go. You have to you don't have to be set up. And you know who else is not gonna lose this weekend? The Bucks. Because they are winning right now and they're probably gonna blow this game by the time I post this video. I'm sure Dallas will come back. But I don't Davis: Yeah. Jackson: have to go through another Bucks loss on Sunday. So things are looking up. All right. Davis: Yeah. Yeah. Jackson: That'll do it. See you guys. Thanks, Davis. Davis: Yeah, see all.