Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 199 - 1/16/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 199 - 1/16/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:17
Hello, and welcome to episode 199 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
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Happy Thirsty Thursday. Our work week rolls on almost
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getting to the weekend, which happens to be one of my favorite
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betting weekends of the year that's right final final weekend
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of the year where we got doubleheader NFL playoff action
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2 games on Saturday 2 games on Sunday.
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I just want to give you guys a quick update here before I dive
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into all of our sweats and recap last night.
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By the way, I do have a 5 pack of plays for you today, guys for
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college basketball plays, three sides, 1 total and one NHL play
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as well with a good sharp line move.
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But just want to wet your whistle, update you on some of
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these playoff games. One, Houston, Kansas City, Now
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we have seen Kansas City hang around -8 -, 8 and a half.
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One thing I did notice is pretty much all of these games, the bet
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splits at DraftKings are pretty much 5050.
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Like there's no team getting more than like 60% of bets or
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less than 40% of bets. So public is somewhat undecided
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on a lot of these games. One thing I did notice Texans
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Kansas City was that rhythm does have Texans plus 6.7.
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And again, Kansas City typically wins these games don't doesn't
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always cover and there is a system fading a divisional round
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favorite off a buy that's 58% against the spread over the last
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decade. Also notice a little bit of line
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movement toward that under that was as high as 42 1/2.
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Now it's down to around 41 1/2. It is just a little bit to the
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under and that is going to be a windy cold under play.
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So maybe Houston, the points, maybe the under.
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I'll be honest with you, I haven't played any of these yet.
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I'm waiting a little bit. Let's give it a couple more
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days. A lot of the public action is
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really going to going to pile up here over the last 24 to 48
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hours. Again, a lot of public betters
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are still, you know, knee deep in their work week, haven't
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played these games yet. You can always kind of count on
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the fact that, you know, regular average Joe casual betters,
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they're going to bet closer to game time.
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Whereas sharps tend to sometimes bet games earlier because they
2:19
feel like they have an edge and want to get a good number before
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it moves. Washington Detroit is
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interesting because we have seen Detroit at some shops go to -9
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1/2. They were hanging 8 1/2 at one
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point. Did they get to 10?
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I do a rhythm system match here, Commanders plus 6.3.
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So if you can give me a 10, I might be intrigued to play
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Washington there. I did notice that circa only 24%
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of bets, but 47% of dollars on Jayden Daniels in that spot.
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Also. That is a very high total as
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high as 56. Now it's down to around 55 1/2.
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That would be a high total under system match.
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If you look at those high total unders 47 or more, they're three
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and O this postseason they're 65% over the last.
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Was it since 2017 Rams in Philly?
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I'm intrigued by the Rams here. Can you give me a 6 1/2 with the
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Rams? I believe there's one book at 6
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1/2. Most of the market is Philly -6
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although it's a little bit juiced up.
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But I did notice that Rhythm has Rams plus 4.1.
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That would also be a divisional dog getting six or more.
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That's been a good bet historically. 59% ATS since 2017
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at circa 62% bets. 81% dollars on the Rams there.
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So if you give me the hook I could I could be enticed by the
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Rams and then the granddaddy of them all, which man this is
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going to break records for for handle because it's the late
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game on Sunday 630 Baltimore Buffalo, man, you tell me like
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Buffalo, I'm not going to argue with you.
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You tell me like Baltimore, I'm not going to argue with you.
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This is going to be an epic battle here.
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Now we have seen a dog to fave line move in favor of Baltimore.
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Remember the Bills open this game around A1 or 1 1/2 point
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home favorite and it has flipped to Baltimore now -1 -, 1 1/2.
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So that is dog to fave Baltimore.
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I did notice that Circa is only got 52% bets, but over 90% money
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on Baltimore and Rhythm has Ravens -2 so my my, I don't
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know. I guess I just don't want to
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dismiss Buffalo, but there are a lot of clear signs as of right
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now that Buffalo is taking in the smart money here.
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So, and we'll see how that one develops.
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Again, we're sitting at one 1 1/2.
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Does it, does it maybe creep up to two?
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Does it come back down to a pick?
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That's something to monitor between now and Sunday.
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And then also, I think this weekend could be a teaser
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weekend. I think you have a good
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opportunity here if you want to play Kansas City just to kind of
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get out of there with a win, you know, write some books for eight
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and a half. Eight, if you can take them down
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to -2 -. 2 1/2 that could be worth a play.
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The other angle would be if you do like Buffalo, why not take
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him 1 1/2 up to 7 1/2, go through some key numbers and
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then Philly, you like him to win that game, but maybe not cover.
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Maybe Philly eeks out a close win.
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Six, 6 1/2 down to basically a pick.
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So there's teaser options. We got some rhythm angles.
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We got good percentages. I have not placed a bet yet, but
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I'm going to monitor these over the next few days.
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And those are just some initial thoughts on a huge divisional
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round weekend. Now looking back toward last
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night before we dive into our sweats for today.
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As I mentioned, A5 pack on tap for college hoops one NHL last
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night again, hopefully you got that Uri plus 4 1/2.
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That was one of those games where I probably deserved a loss
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because hey, I got plus 3 1/2. I jumped the gun. 4 1/2 was the
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closing number. Won't don't you know they lose
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by 4, So I lose. But on the pod mentioned, hey,
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if you played it, that was a four and a half.
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So if you were able to get Uri 4 1/2, you were able to cash that
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ticket. Virginia suffered a back
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breaking defeat at the buzzer, but they did cover the plus 6
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1/2. So love seeing that Orlando,
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Milwaukee and the NBA also came through over 211 1/2.
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The ones that were are losers there.
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Stanford plus seven half. That was such a frustrating
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sweat because they got off to a great start.
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They pretty much led the game for 75% of the time.
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And then in the last three or four minutes, there was a kid, I
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think his name is Hunter Salas, absolutely took over and hit
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every single shot. Then up losing by I think was it
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10-11, something like that. But that was brutal because if
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you're like me, you got a 7 1/2. I think they closed at like 5
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1/2. I would.
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Of course, they crumble down the stretch.
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And then Brooklyn Clippers, Oh, man, someone should have told
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the Nets they had a game last night.
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Couldn't get the over 213 1/2 because the Nets could not
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score. They could not hit the broadside
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of a barn. That one was tough because they
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ended up scoring 67 points. Clippers put up 125 but came up
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short in terms of the total. So if you're able to get that
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Uri 4 1/2, unlike me, you got a better number.
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That was a winning night based on the pod numbers, 3 and 2 +
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0.69 units. So turning the page here
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literally and figuratively, I don't know if you guys can hear
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that. That's me with my notebook
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flipping the page. But I do have a 5 pack for you.
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So let's dive right in. Starting with college hoops.
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Got a play here early on and I'm looking at let me get all my
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numbers together first one, Georgia Southern and Coastal
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Carolina. Now I've been getting a lot of
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DMS, tweets, questions about this game because I wrote about
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this earlier today and there has been some buyback.
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But as always, I'm going to dance with the one who brung me
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now. 7:00 tonight, Georgia Southern visiting coastal
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Georgia Southern comes in eight and nine on the year.
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They've dropped three in a row, though.
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Just fell to Marshall 8169, did not cover as a 7 1/2 point Rd.
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dog. Meanwhile, Coastal Carolina 8-9
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on the year. They've lost two straight, just
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came up short against Georgia State, 79 to 75, didn't cover as
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a three-point Rd. dog. So what have we seen across the
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market here? Well, this one's a little bit
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been been a little bit back and forth because basically we open
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this game with Coastal Carolina listed around A2 point favorite.
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One point. Coastal Carolina got all the way
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up to 2 1/2. And then -3 and I was saying to
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myself, oh, this thing's creeping.
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Might be time to pounce on Coastal Carolina.
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Since that time, the line has come back down to basically
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coastal -1 1/2. So again, open the current.
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It jacked up toward Coastal Carolina.
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There's been buyback. It has come back down.
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But here's why I'm going to stick with my coastal money line
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now. I got coastal at -140 on the
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money line again, short number money line, short favorites.
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As long as they win the game, hey, it doesn't matter if you
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just play money line versus spread.
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Yes, you're paying a little more juice, but that juice is, I
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think, important because again, they win by one or two.
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You lay 1 1/2, you know, you lose your bet, or maybe you just
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cash there by the hook. But anyway, I got a bad -140 I
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jumped the gun on coastal. I feel like that's been
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happening to me recently. I don't know what's going on.
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But you can now get them around -125 if you want to play Coastal
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Carolina. And here's some reasons to light
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Coastal. One, if you look at the money
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line tickets currently at DraftKings, 75% of money line
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bets, 92% of money line dollars. And this is a lower back game.
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So again, maybe there's maybe there's battling sharps here,
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maybe there's sharps who again, like coastal at an early number
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and then said, hey, when Georgia Southern got to 2 1/2 or three,
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that's when you saw some buyback.
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But one thing that hopefully will help us, those of us who
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are going to stick with Coastal, one thing to, you know, put in
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our back pocket is that Ken Palm has coastal winning this game by
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three points. He's got a winning 71 to 68.
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So hopefully that is an edge here toward Coastal.
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And when I was breaking down this game, here's a lot of
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factors that pointed me toward Coastal.
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Better offensive efficiency. 264 in the country versus three O 8
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for Georgia Southern. Georgia Southern is one of the
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worst offensive teams in college hoops.
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Coastal has the better effective field goal percentage, 51%
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versus 49%. Better three-point shooting, 34%
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versus 32% and again, always crucial in the tight game, free
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throw shooting, you get to the line, can you make your free
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throws 70% versus 65%. Also, Coastal better
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defensively, they're only giving up 68 points per game
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defensively versus on the flip side, Georgia Southern giving up
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79 points per game. So for that, coastal defense can
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shut down Georgia Southern. Then, of course, lastly, Home
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Rd., Coastal Carolina, five and two at home, Georgia Southern
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just one and seven on the road. By the way, we do have, as I
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mentioned, Ken Palm predicting coastal by three.
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Well, our friends at Rhythm have coastal -2.5 and -3 so again, I
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was surprised to see this really fall back down toward Georgia
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Southern. But sticking with the original
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cap, putting some faith here in that Ken Palm and Rhythm
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prediction. Here again, I got a bad coastal
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money line -140 if you want to play them, they're now as low as
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-125 But either way, let's go coastal.
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Keep on cruising. Next one for you, let's look at
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match up here, Southeast Missouri State and Tennessee
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Tech. Now coming into it, we have
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Southeast Missouri State 9 and 9.
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They've lost three of their last four however, and just fell to
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Little Rock 73 to 71. Lost outright as a 2 point home
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favorite. Meanwhile, Tennessee Tech 9:00
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and 8:00 on the air. They just saw their five
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game-winning streak however come to an end.
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They lost to SIU Edwardsville 67 to 59.
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Failed to cover as a six point Rd. dog.
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So what we've seen across the market here, well, this one's
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also gone a little bit back and forth.
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This game open Tennessee Tech listed as low as a 1 1/2 or two
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point home favorite. And we've seen big smart money
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early Hammer, Tennessee Tech got all the way up to -2 1/2.
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Some books even got up to three. But similar to the game we just
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mentioned, you have seen some buyback once it got to Tennessee
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Tech, you know -2 1/2 - 3. That's when you saw some
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Southeast Missouri State buyback.
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This line is back down to 1 1/2. A lot of shops are juiced up
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like it may go back to two. So we're kind of right back to
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where we started now one thing I did like is the fact this is a
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very low obscure bet game. Public isn't interested in
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Southeast Missouri State and Tennessee Tech Always remember,
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if you can't name the mascots of each team, public probably
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doesn't want any interest in this game.
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It's not sexy, it's not popular enough.
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But anyway, with that being said, 78% of bets, 86% of
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dollars on Tennessee Tech. Now you may say, hey, that's
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public, right? That's a majority tickets.
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By by definition it's a majority tickets.
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But remember, this is a very low back game.
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So it tells me it's mostly respected.
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Better to have targeted this game and gone with the home
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team. Now once again, money line play.
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I got a another bad -140 you can get a -, 125 here if you want to
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play Tennessee Tech at this point.
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But Tennessee Tech does have a a good split here. 75% of money
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line bets, 81% of money line dollars, good pro and Joe split
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and also a lot of advantages here.
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Statistically, Tennessee Tech better offensive efficiency, 296
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in the country versus 316th for Southeast Missouri State, better
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effective field goal percentage, 50% versus 49%, better
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three-point shooting, 36% versus 33% better free throw shooting,
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70% versus 69%. So they're not huge
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discrepancies, but basically a lot of these offensive
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categories. Tennessee Tech has been better.
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Hopefully they they come to play here tonight and make their
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shots. But also I'll give Tennessee
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Tech this advantage. Rest first tired.
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They last played on the 11th of January.
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Southeast Missouri State played on the 14th.
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So this is kind of a quick turn around for Southeast Missouri
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State. Whereas again, Tennessee Tech
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rested and has been in the gym preparing Tennessee Tech also,
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let's hope this continues. 6 and O at home, Southeast Missouri
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State, two and five on the road. So you add it all up again, bend
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a little bit back and forth. I think with these small, small
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back games might have some dueling sharp action, which is
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why I see it go up and come back down.
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But again, the angle here is that Ken Palm has a winning by
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1. And if we look at Tennessee Tech
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based on rhythm, they are -1.9 and -2.2.
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So let's win the damn game. You can now get Tennessee tech
14:02
-125 another one for you. This is a 9:00 sweat, UTEP in
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Liberty. So this is a 9:00 game on CBS
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Sports Network if you want to sweat it.
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UTEP comes in 12 and 4. Then a long winning streak going
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where I think they won six in a row.
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Just got rolled though by New Mexico coming off a loss.
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And if you look at Liberty, 14 and three, really good record.
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They just had a 2 game-winning streak come to an end.
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They lost to La Tech 79 to 74. So in terms of the side, you did
14:33
see the sign creep a little bit back down toward UTEP getting
14:35
nine. It was basically liberty -9
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eight and a half down to 8. But I'm going to focus on the
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total here and I'm going to, I'm going to expect some points in
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this one. I'm going over 134 1/2 now.
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A couple things I noticed. That's what it's a little bit
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pro and Joe 70% bets nearly 80% dollars on the over.
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But if you look at the total, it opened at 1:34, it's now 134
14:58
1/2, but it got as high as 135. So it's really been only moving
15:02
upward and really it never got down to 133 1/2.
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So it's either stayed the same or, you know, actually risen
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across the market. If you look at Ken Palm and
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Rhythm, it's not a huge edge like Ken Palm has it right at
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134, Rhythm has 134.7. But here are some reasons to
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hopefully look for some offense here.
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One, I do like the line moving toward UTEP, toward the dog
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because more competitive game. Hopefully back and forth you get
15:28
some scoring. But both these teams are pretty
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good offensive teams. UTEP's averaging 74 points a
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game, Liberty is averaging 80 points a game.
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If you look at their three-point shooting, both really good 3
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point shooting teams. Knock on wood, hope you make
15:42
your trays tonight. But UTEP is shooting 38% from 3,
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Liberty is shooting 39% from three.
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So again, for good 3 point shooting teams, good for an
15:52
over, both have above 50% field goal percentage, effective field
15:58
goal percentage. UTEP is 51.4%, Liberty is 57.7%.
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And if you look at the other angle here that I like, it's out
16:06
there very well rested. They haven't played since the
16:09
11th of January. So basically, again, you've been
16:13
rested, ready to go, you've been in the gym working on your game.
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So if you Add all up, I think it's an opportunity here to
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hopefully cash this over. I got over 134 1/2.
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Again, that's a pretty widely available number, but we have
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two good offenses. We got good 3 point shooting,
16:29
good effective field goal shooting, rested pretty much
16:32
right on the number, but pointing toward ones pointing
16:35
towards 135. I'm going to see if we can
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escape this one with a with an over.
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So give me UTEP Liberty over 134 1/2 last but of the night.
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Pacific and Portland probably didn't expect this one.
16:48
I wrote about this one. Here's that.
16:49
Here's a line that actually did move in our favor since this
16:52
morning, which is good to see because I'm getting frustrated
16:55
by these these these lines moving the wrong way after I bet
16:58
them tells me maybe I'm I'm betting these games too early in
17:01
the day. Who knows?
17:02
But anyway, Pacific Portland noticed a sharp move toward
17:06
Portland. Let's set the stage here.
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We have two bad teams going ahead dead 10:00 game here
17:11
tonight. Pacific is 6 and 14.
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They've lost ten of their last 11 just got crushed by Oregon
17:17
State 91 to 55 didn't cover as a nine point home dog.
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Meanwhile, Portland also not a very good team, a bad team,
17:24
whatever you want to call them. 5 and 13 on the year.
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They've lost five in a row, just fell to San Francisco 8172.
17:31
But they did cover, they're getting 19 in that one and they
17:33
cover the number. So Pacific 6 and 14, Portland's
17:37
5 and 13, two bad teams, but it's pretty clear the line is
17:40
moving toward Portland. This game open to Portland
17:43
listed as a very short 1 or 1 1/2 point home favorite.
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And I was writing about this game earlier today, saw them
17:50
jump up to -2 which was notable. Now they're up to -2 1/2, even
17:55
going towards 3. So good.
17:57
Good sign here that even though the money lines getting more
17:59
expensive, like I got Portland at -130 you can now get them
18:03
around -145 it's a little bit more expensive.
18:06
But it is a good sign that you're kind of with that sharp,
18:10
sharp money in that good move. Now let's look at the bet
18:12
splits. Draft Kings is showing Portland
18:15
79% bets, 92% dollars. Again, that's a heavy majority,
18:19
but there's a late game. It's extremely low bet.
18:22
This is one of our classic low bet, sharp, obscure line moves.
18:25
Also, if you look at the money line, tickets here also look
18:30
pretty good on Portland 69% bets, 88% dollars.
18:34
Now Ken Palm has Portland winning by one point, but our
18:38
friends at Rhythm have Portland -1.4.
18:41
So not huge, but again, both Ken Palm and Rhythm have Portland
18:44
winning this game. So money lining Portland here
18:47
-130 now -145 that's all we need is to win the game.
18:51
Portland has better three-point shooting, 31% versus 28%, better
18:56
free throw shooting 77% versus 74% and also a rest advantage.
19:02
They last played the Portland Pilots on January 9th.
19:05
Pacific played on the 11th home Rd. splits also favorite Port,
19:09
favorite Portland. Now Portland is four and five at
19:11
home. Nothing great but Pacific one
19:14
and eight on the road. So a little bit obscure game
19:17
here. Public has no interest in this
19:18
matchup, but it's pretty clear smart money is playing the home
19:21
team. So I'm going to play Portland to
19:23
win the game again. I got a -, 130.
19:25
Now they're upwards of -145 SA four pack here.
19:29
Can we get 2 or more coastal Tennessee Tech in Portland on
19:33
the money line? UTEP Liberty over 134 1/2.
19:37
Now to finish up the five pack here on a big thirsty Thursday.
19:40
Let's go to the NHL. There's one game here across the
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across the ice that caught my eye and it is New Jersey Devils,
19:48
Toronto Maple Leafs. SO2 good teams facing off here.
19:52
The Devils 2615 and five, Toronto 26 or sorry, 2716 and
19:57
two. But they're they're both
19:59
struggling a bit, I guess you could say.
20:01
Maple Leafs have lost three straight, Devils have lost three
20:04
of their last five S. Both should be eager here to
20:07
play well. But it's pretty clear smart
20:10
money is going in One Direction and that's where I want to be.
20:12
I always want to be with the sharp action, the smart money.
20:15
And it's toward the Devils. So I got the Devils.
20:17
I got the Devils at -128 at FanDuel.
20:19
Now the Devils, at one point, it was basically a pick em game
20:22
minus one O 5 - 110. Now the Devils have shot up all
20:25
the way to -130 So big steam, big sharp move here hitting New
20:30
Jersey. I really haven't seen any
20:31
buyback the other way on Toronto.
20:33
It's been really one way in favor of the Devils.
20:36
Really good bet splits at DraftKings.
20:38
The Devils are only getting 44% of bets but 63% of dollars on
20:43
the money line and circa similar, only 50% bets but 93%
20:48
dollars. So good low bets, higher dollars
20:50
bets split in favor of the Devil's.
20:52
If you if we are taking a look at the goalies, which again is
20:56
always important. It's like when you're betting
20:58
baseball and you're looking at the the starting pitchers.
21:01
Don't have confirmation on Jacob Markstrom yet, but he is
21:04
expected it looks like to play or to start.
21:07
Joseph Wall is definitely going to play here or at least as the
21:11
expected starter for Toronto. But hopefully it's Markstrom
21:13
because he's been really good this year.
21:15
Remember free agency pickup Devil's been looking for a
21:17
goalie for a long time and Markstrom has paid off thus far.
21:21
2.15 goals against, 913 save percentage.
21:24
Jacob Wall or Joseph Wall has been pretty decent. 2.65 goals
21:29
against, nine O 8 save percentage.
21:31
But in the month of January, again, what have you done for me
21:34
lately? Markstrom's been a lot better
21:36
than Wall. Markstrom in five January
21:38
starts, 2.1 Three goals against, 917 say percentage.
21:43
Wall 3.2, two goals against, 895 say percentage.
21:48
So obviously in the month of January, we're halfway through
21:51
now at this point, but we have seen Markstrom better than Wall.
21:55
Also some stat categories here. Slightly better offense for the
21:59
Devils. 3.1 goals per game versus 3 for the Leafs and a
22:04
defensive edge. 2.5 goals allowed per game versus 2.8 for
22:08
Toronto. And if we look at the special
22:11
teams, one thing I'll bank on hopefully is maybe a power play
22:14
goal or two. That'll be nice for the Devils.
22:17
They have a 28% power play conversion rate versus 20% for
22:21
Toronto. Also throwing motivation.
22:24
These teams have played twice this year, Toronto's two and O.
22:26
So Devils. Hopefully you remember that and
22:28
you get up to play and want some want to enact some revenge.
22:31
And I did also notice John Tavares, really good player
22:35
here. He's he's getting up there in
22:36
age, but really good forward there.
22:39
He was their captain. I think he relinquished that.
22:41
But he is out for this game. So you have one of your better
22:44
players not playing for Toronto. So you had it all up pretty
22:48
clear steam hitting New Jersey, really haven't seen any buyback.
22:52
I play the Devils on the money line.
22:54
I got him at -128 at FanDuel. So let's go Devils.
22:59
So that about does it for episode 199 of the ASG pod
23:03
powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
23:05
where we wrap things up. And I first start by thanking
23:08
you, thanking you. Thank you for taking the time
23:10
out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar
23:14
sweat some sharp betting breakdowns.
23:16
I know, I know everyone's lives are busy and crazy.
23:18
And the fact that you know, we've kind of built this
23:20
community win, lose or draw. I hope you know that you're
23:23
getting the unvarnished data-driven approach.
23:25
No opinion, but but true information based on the bets
23:30
and dollars coming in, which again, you know, there's a lot
23:33
of opinion out there. Sports betting is expanding,
23:35
which is great legalization up to 40 states or more.
23:38
But everything I see on Twitter is, you know, opinion based
23:41
betting. I really don't see a lot of
23:43
data-driven betters out there. So I'm proud to host this and
23:45
I'm I'm thankful for you guys for helping build this
23:48
community. Next, if you enjoy this pod,
23:51
when those withdraw, you value the insights, which hopefully is
23:54
the case. Could you please do me a solid,
23:56
do me a favor, make me happy. Give this podcast a five star
23:59
review. Whether you're listening on
24:01
Spotify or iTunes, five stars would go a long way to help us
24:04
get to continue to grow the pod. If you want to click the follow
24:06
button or recommend it to a friend or colleague or family
24:10
member, that'll be great as well.
24:12
Next, if you enjoy the pod and you want to learn more about
24:15
data-driven sports betting, learn about how lines are set,
24:18
how and why they move, how to read line movement, how to
24:20
locate sharp action, how to place a bet in person or online,
24:23
how to shop for the best line, how to go contrarian, how to set
24:26
up a bankroll management plan. If you want to learn more,
24:29
there's one thing you can do. You can buy my book, support the
24:31
team, gift it to that friend of yours who maybe is new into
24:34
betting and has no idea how what a money line is versus a spread
24:38
versus a teaser. If you if you are looking to
24:41
learn more or know someone who wants to learn more about
24:43
betting or you just want to support the pod, I would love
24:46
for you guys to buy my book. Just go to Amazon and type in
24:48
the everything guide to sports betting.
24:51
Pick one up and bring it to the book.
24:53
And when I see you, we're going to smile.
24:55
We're going to cash a ticket together.
24:57
I'll sign it for you and I'll buy a beer or ginger ale next.
25:01
Have you done your homework? Have you have you?
25:03
Is it? Is it true that you still
25:04
haven't downloaded Rhythm or Juice Real yet?
25:07
My two favorite sports betting apps on the market, Rhythm
25:09
fantastic for their AI backed models and predictions for both
25:13
player props and best bets for spread money line total and
25:18
again should have some player props for this weekend's action.
25:21
It was a pretty good weekend for player props in the wild Card
25:23
weekend, but I'm still looking at some still deciding making my
25:27
decisions from the rhythm predictions.
25:30
But then also juice reel fantastic for their AI backed
25:34
best bet picks from Robo Jackson Robo had a 2 and O night.
25:37
The hardest work in bots stays hot.
25:40
You can also follow the all systems go best bet picks on
25:43
juice reel. They're posted there always So
25:45
if you miss a pod or you just want to support the pod, it's
25:48
499 a week. That's $4.99 for a week's worth
25:52
of plays. Consider it a tip jar.
25:54
If you enjoy the insights, I would love for you guys to go
25:56
follow the best bets on Juicereal.
25:59
You can click that tweet that I put out late afternoon for my
26:02
Twitter account, Josh under score Insights.
26:04
Or you can always just go to the social tab, click Find Juicers,
26:08
and type in ASG under score Podcast.
26:10
It's also in the body of the podcast on Spotify or iTunes.
26:15
You just click that link, but also you're going to get the
26:17
sharp mush indicators, arbitrage opportunities.
26:20
Shop for the best line all available to you when you
26:23
download juice reel. So if you have a if you're an
26:26
iPhone, an Apple person or a Android person, go to the the
26:31
iTunes store, go to the wherever you get your apps, Google Play,
26:35
whatever it's called and download rhythm.
26:37
Download juice reel and tell it and recommend it to a friend.
26:41
So that about does it for today's pod episode 199.
26:45
I will also let you know tonight is the night that I go on Visen
26:49
Live with Mad Dog Radio, SiriusXM channel 82, my buddy
26:54
Patrick Maher and Dustin Sweetlson.
26:56
So I'll be on SiriusXM tonight at 8:00 breaking down some of
27:00
these these postseason games. And then I'm also going to be
27:03
joining Philadelphia Fox Radio, which I'm very much looking
27:08
forward to. That's actually right after this
27:10
pod. So it'll be, sorry, it'll be Fox
27:13
Sports Radio New Jersey at 5:30 PM with Mike Cohen.
27:17
So I'm, I'm looking forward to that.
27:18
So I got some media appearances. I got to I got to get out there
27:21
on the airwaves. But as always, guys, I'll leave
27:23
you with a couple things. One, whether I see you at the
27:26
Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
27:29
Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in
27:32
Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain Ridge Park
27:35
Casino or MGM Springfield. In my neck of the woods in
27:37
Massachusetts. Out in the desert where the true
27:40
grinders get down, where Billy Walters sends his number
27:42
runners, where the lowest juice possible is found at the South
27:45
Point or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the
27:48
stadium swimming pool. When you cash a big ticket at
27:50
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
27:53
Hopefully you're going to show me Uri plus 4 1/2 Virginia plus
27:57
6 1/2 Orlando. Milwaukee over, man, Stanford.
28:01
Bad beat. Don't show me that one that'll
28:03
just annoy me. But either way, guys, first
28:05
one's on me, next one's on you. We're going to post about the
28:07
book and sweat some sharp contrarian data-driven plays all
28:10
night long. Maybe we'll get some free drink
28:12
tickets. That's always nice when you
28:14
place a bet and then they give you a few drink tickets.
28:16
Also make sure you tip your your bartender or whoever walks
28:20
around giving you giving you drinks.
28:23
But anyway, guys, as always, finishing up here with some
28:26
words of wisdom that I've learned over time.
28:29
You know, whether whether we're five and OO and five, one and
28:32
four, four and one, three and two, two and three again, always
28:36
grinding. The mindset never changes.
28:38
And that's I think something important to keep sight of.
28:40
When you're hot, you're never as hot as you think.
28:42
When you're cold, you're never as bad as you think.
28:44
You're always somewhere in the middle.
28:45
And I think there's virtue in grinding because sports betting
28:48
is difficult. It ain't easy.
28:51
You know, it's hard to be it's hard to be a consistent winning
28:53
better because we got to overcome the juice beat the
28:55
really sharp lines, the odds maker set.
28:57
We got to get the right numbers before they move or wait them
29:00
out to get their best price. We got to avoid bad beats and
29:03
refs screwing us. There are a couple fouls in that
29:07
Uri game that just, you know, it made me furious because they
29:09
didn't call him. But hey, that's sports betting.
29:11
Sometimes the brakes go your way, sometimes they don't.
29:13
But you know what you can do to be a successful sports better
29:16
long term? Stick to the model, stick to the
29:19
blueprint, trust the data. Make bets with your head and not
29:21
your heart. Against the public, with the
29:23
house, with the pros. Flat bet, avoid parlays, get
29:26
that closing line value if we can do that long term, and I'm
29:29
confident that we can. And guess what, we're going to
29:31
be successful sports bettors. So enjoy the sweats.
29:34
Everyone have a great Thirsty Thursday and we'll be right back
29:37
at it tomorrow for a big Friday, which will be episode 5.
29:40
I almost said 500. Episode 200.
29:43
Maybe we'll have the UFC bet for you, Hopefully.
29:47
Hope there's a couple of monitoring.
29:48
We'll see what we'll see what that move, those late moves
29:50
coming where my buddy John Ewing gives us some of those bet
29:53
splits. But either way, guys, back at it
29:54
tomorrow on a big Friday. That'll be episode 200 of the
29:57
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
30:01
Good luck everybody and have a great Thursday night.