Latest / Elon Musk Podcast / SpaceX Faces Another Big Starship Problem

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SpaceX Faces Another Big Starship Problem · Elon Musk Podcast

0:00
Spacex's Starship Flight 9 claims to solve the feed line
0:03
resonance that doomed its predecessor, Starship Flight 8,
0:07
and our reinforced methane ducts and updated TPS tiles enough to
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avert another metal shower inferno.
0:15
Now, will these engineering upgrades finally achieve orbit,
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or will a Raptor reignition expose an even deeper design
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flaw of Starship? SpaceX has not announced a firm
0:26
date for Starship's Flight 9, but indications point to a late
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April or early May 2025 target. And after the flight 8 test on
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March 6th, 2025 ended prematurely, Elon Musk called it
0:39
a minor set back and stayed in. The next ship will be ready in
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four to six weeks. Now, this timeline would put
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Flight 9 no earlier than roughly April 20th through May 4th of
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2025, assuming issues are resolved quickly.
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Now, the launch window in exact time remain to be determined,
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pending technical readiness and regulatory approval, of course.
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And as with previous Starship tests, the launch site will be
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Spacex's Star Base facility in Boca Chica, Texas, where the
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Starship Super Heavy stack is integrated on the orbital
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launchpad. Now, SpaceX will need a green
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light from the FAA before launch, and the FAA is requiring
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a mishap investigation into the Flight 8 failure.
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But it did allow Flight 8 to proceed even while the Flight 7
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investigation was still open. That's after reviewing Spacex's
1:30
initial fixes and barring any regulatory hold UPS, SpaceX
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appears eager to attempt Flight 9 as soon as the vehicle and
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licenses are ready. Now we all again speculate about
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Elon Musk targeting 420 or 69AS launch dates, but officially the
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schedule will depend on when engineering and FAA constraints
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are resolved. The next test will use a new
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Starship prototype, Ship 35, paired with Booster 16.
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Now, both Ship 35 and B16 have already undergone cryogenic
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proof tests as Spacex's Massey test site in Texas, indicating
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they're being prepped for launch.
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Now Ship 35 is a Block 2 Starship, part of an upgraded
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series that debuted on Flight 7 and Block 2.
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Vehicles feature numerous structural, avionics and system
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improvements over earlier prototypes.
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For example, they're lighter and designed for higher performance
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and eventual reusability. SpaceX modified the methyl ox,
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the methane and oxygen feed system on Block 2 ships, routing
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methane to the Starships 3 Vacuum Raptors via 3 long,
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thinner feed lines instead of a single main feed.
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This change was intended to improve propellant flow, but it
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may have inadvertently introduced a new issue.
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Now both Block 2 ships flown so far, Ship 33 on Flight 7 and
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ship 34 on Flight 8, were lost during their upper stage burn.
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So SpaceX has been analyzing what went wrong.
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Flight 7th, back in January 16th of 2025 saw a leak or a harmonic
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resonance in the ship that caused engines to shut down,
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while Flight 8, which happened in March 6th of 20 in 25,
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suffered an apparent Raptor vacuum engine explosion that's
3:18
about 8 minutes into flight, which took out all three of the
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ship's main engines and sent it into an uncontrollable tumble.
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Investigation suggests that the methane propellant feed lines
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might be vibrating at a damaging frequency as the fuel tank
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empties, leading to cracks or leaks that cause engine fires in
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flight 8 cameras captured a large methane leak and a fire in
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Ship 34's engine Bay moments before the vehicle was
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destroyed. And in short, the Block 2 design
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changes while boosting performance seem to have
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introduced a fuel plumbing issue that must be fixed to prevent
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another mid air failure. Hey real quick I want to make a
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SpaceX is implementing mitigations for this feed line
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vibration leak problem ahead of Flight 9 and Musk characterize.
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The issue is a minor one that can be solved relatively
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quickly, and engineers are likely exploring solutions such
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as strengthening or better supporting the methane downcomer
5:02
tubes, any vibration dampers, or also adjusting engine start
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procedures. And how extensive the fix will
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be is still unknown. If it's a simple tweak, SpaceX
5:12
can just retrofit Ship 35 and 36, which is almost nearly
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complete with the solution now. If a major redesign is required,
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however, those vehicles might even be bypassed or scrapped in
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favor of redesigned Ship 37, which would imply a longer
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delay. But as of now, Ship 35 is passed
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3 cryo proof tests and returned to the production site for
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possible modifications. Now, teams worked on Ship 36's
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assembly immediately after Flight 8, indicating SpaceX is
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pressing forward on multiple fronts.
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Now, aside from the propellant feed fix, Flight 9 Starship will
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likely incorporate incremental improvements learned from prior
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flights, and for instance, Ship 35 is reported to have
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reinforced catch pins or attachment points on a
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structure. These are fixtures that would
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eventually allow a Starship to be caught by the launch tower's
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arms on descent, similar to how the Super Heavy boosters are
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caught, rather than just belly flopping into the ocean.
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SpaceX has already successfully caught multiple boosters with
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the Mecca Zilla Tower arms, most recently Booster 15 on Flight 8,
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and even adjusted the catch technique to handle kind of off
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center landings. And the tower arms and
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chopsticks were fine-tuned during Flight 8's booster catch,
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demonstrating they can move to recenter a slightly misaligned
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booster and dampen any post catch swaying.
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And while Starship catches are not expected on Flight 9, SpaceX
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will want at least one Starship to survive re entry intact
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before attempting to grab one out of the sky.
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The presence of catch hardware on Ship 35 shows SpaceX is
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looking ahead to future recovery attempts.
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Other minor changes being tested on recent ships include
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adjustments to the heat shield, such as using fewer tiles in
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certain areas, experimenting with actively cooled tiles, and
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trying an ablative coating in some spots.
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Now that's to improve durability and to reduce weight of the
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ship. And in some, Flight 9 vehicles
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should be the most advanced Starship configuration yet,
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incorporating fixes from the last two failures and geared
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toward achieving a fully successful mission.
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Flight 9's timing is directly tied to the resolution of the
7:28
issues and the completion of the required safety reviews.
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And after Flight 8's anomaly, the FAA opened a new mishap
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investigation, which must be at least preliminary address before
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another launch. That's a normal step, though.
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The FAA had also kept the Flight 7 investigation open, but still
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granted an updated license for Flight 8 once SpaceX provided
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initial data in mitigation for Flight 9.
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SpaceX will similarly need to demonstrate that the causes of
7:56
the previous failures are understood and corrected.
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The company's aggressive four to six week turn around goal
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suggests they believe only modest weeks are needed.
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But if the fix takes longer than expected, like a significant
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time, like a new redesign, Flight 9 could slip beyond May
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2025. The gap between Flight 7 and
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Flight 8 was about 49 days. A similar or slightly longer
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interval after the March 6th flight puts a tentative launch
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in the late April to mid-May time frame.
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Internally though, SpaceX is continuing to prep hardware,
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testing ship 35B16, repairs, improvements to ground systems
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and etcetera. So they aren't idle while
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analysis is under way. They're still building that
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thing. It's worth noting that earlier
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targets have already been pushed.
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Prior to the recent failures, Elon had signalled a rapid
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flight cadence for Starship in 2025, aiming for possibility of
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launch every month or two. Kathy leaders from Starbase said
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in 2024, the company hoped to conduct 25 Starship launches in
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2025. This is a huge goal that would
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require quick turnarounds for the team.
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Now, the dual failures of 33 and 34 ships have forced a bit more
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caution. Now they have to work on these
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things. Flight 8 was originally rumored
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to fly in February but end up launching in March after
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additional checks and a brief weather delay that with two
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back-to-back ship losses. SpaceX appears willing to take a
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few extra weeks if needed to implement the fixes.
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No official delay of Flight 9 has been announced since the
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exact date isn't known yet, but effectively the schedule has
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slid from the ultra optimistic scenario.
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Now, the expected rescheduling will become clearer once the FAA
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concurs that the new design or procedure is safe.
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If the fixes work and Flight 9 succeeds, SpaceX could quickly
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ramp up the pace afterwards, but until then the schedule remains
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no earlier than April of 2025 and also subject to change.
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Now the overall mission plan for Starship Flight 9 will be
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similar to Flight 7 and 8, aiming to test the full stacks
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performance and hopefully achieve the first mostly
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successful end to end flight of this Starship system.
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Super Heavy Booster. As before, the Super Heavy first
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stage booster 16 will ignite its 33 Raptors and propel the
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Starship to the edge of space in about 2 1/2 minutes.
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After liftoff, the stages will separate.
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The booster will then execute a flip maneuver and attempt to fly
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back to Starbase for recovery. SpaceX will again use the Mecca
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Zilla tower arms to catch the returning booster out of the
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air, as was done in flights 5-7 and eight.
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This become a routine objective for SpaceX.
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Flight 8's booster, for instance, had a picture perfect
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ascent, and it was successfully caught despite a couple of
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engine relay hiccups. But you'd expect Flight 9's
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booster to perform a similar boost back and landing profile,
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demonstrating any improvements in reliability and precision.
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And a successful booster catch on Flight 9 would mark the 4th
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consecutive recovered Super Heavy, firmly proving that
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aspect of the system. Meanwhile, Ship 35 will continue
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on an orbital velocity trajectory once separated.
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The exact flight profile is still being finalized and may
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depend on how confident SpaceX is after implementing all of
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these fixes, but the stated goal is to push the Starship further
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toward orbit and safely a temporary entry on flight 7 and
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8. The plan was to follow a long
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ballistic arc nearly around the globe.
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After stage separation, the Starship would ignite its six
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engines, 3 sea Level, 3 vacuum to accelerate to near orbital
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speeds, then coast and eventually perform a controlled
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re entry and a splashdown. In both cases the target was a
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splashdown in the ocean. Roughly 1 hour after launch,
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Flight 7 targeted the Indian Ocean.
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Flight 9 will likely attempt a similar path, effectively an
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almost orbital test where the ship gains enough velocity to re
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enter around the other side of Earth but not to remain in
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orbit. If all systems are functioning
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perfectly, SpaceX might even try to achieve a minimal low Earth
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orbit on Flight 9, since Ship 35 is a full orbital capable
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vehicle. However, the safer plan is to
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retain a slight velocity shortfall so that the ship RE
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enters on its own pass, ensuring it comes down in a known remote
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area even if communications are lost.
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SpaceX has not confirmed the exact landing zone yet publicly.
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Previously, trajectories hinted at a RE entry near Hawaii or in
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the Indian Ocean, but it could be adjusted.
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The primary objective is to get the Starship stage through
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atmospheric RE entry intact, demonstrating that the vehicle
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can survive the fiery return from orbital speeds.
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Both recent flights failed before this phase, so simply
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having ship 35 still functional at re entry interface would be a
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major milestone. And in addition to the core
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flight goals, stage separation, engine restarts, thermal
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protection during re entry, Flight 9 is expected to carry
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and deploy some test payloads. Now, Like its predecessors, Ship
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35 will likely be loaded with a batch of Starling satellite
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simulators. They're mass dummies
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representing Starling version 2 minis mounted at a dispenser in
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its payload Bay. Flight 7 was set to carry 10
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dummy star lengths, about 20 tons total, and test the
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deployment mechanism in space. And Flight 8 carried four of
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these simulators, possibly to reduced weight during the
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troubleshooting phase. Flight 9 will probably include a
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deployment demo as well, and if the vehicle stays stable after
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main engine cut off, engineers would try ejecting the dummy
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satellites to validate the release system and observe how
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the Starship handles shifting its mass in microgravity.
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Any successful deployed test payload would simply fall into
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the ocean later as they're non functional.
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But proving out the deployment process is key for future
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missions where Starship will launch actual Starlink
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satellites or other cargo. And additionally, SpaceX will be
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gathering data on Starship's aerodynamics and heat shield
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performance. The profile is designed to
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stress the ship's flaps and thermal protection by coming in
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steeply, which helps evaluate the effect of tile loss or
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damage and any changes made to the heat shield design.
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And in Flight 8, for example, one of the forward flaps was
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found severely damaged. Post re entry for Flight 9,
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engineers will watch how Ship 35's revised heat shield layout
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holds up. The hope is to see the ship
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maintain control through re entry performance, landing flip
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maneuver and execute a final descent burn rather than coming
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back to land on the pad, which is too risky at this stage.
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The plan is to have the Starship in for a soft landing in water,
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essentially a controlled belly flop into the ocean.
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This was successfully done on flight 5 back in 2024, which is
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ship 30 which gently splashed down in the Indian Ocean after
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re entry. Ship 30 did not survive long
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after splashdown, it exploded a few seconds after hitting the
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water, but it proved the Starship could re enter and
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attempt the landing burn accurately and Flight 9 will try
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to repeat that feat with the more advanced ship 35.
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And a successful outcome would be defined as the boosters
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recovered, the Starship returns and it also reaches space and it
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returns to the atmosphere on target and as much data as
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possible as collected up to the moment of splashdown.
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Now, even if the Starship vehicle is not recovered intact,
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performing all these steps would be a huge step forward for
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SpaceX. Now looking further into the
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future, though, Spacex's end goal is to make Starship fully
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reusable, with both stages being caught by the ground towers.
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Flight 9 moves closer to that by hopefully validating the
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Starship's durability and controllability.
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If all goes well, Elon Musk has indicated SpaceX could attempt a
15:59
Starship catch with a tower within a few months thereafter,
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possibly as soon as Flight 10 or 11.
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But for now, Flight 9's mission is a critical demonstration.
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It'll show whether the design tweaks have solved the issues
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that caused the last two failures, and the objectives are
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clear. Prove the fixes reach or almost
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reach orbit, deploy test payloads, and bring the ship
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back through reentry. Successfully achieving these
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will pave the way for future flights, higher payload
16:28
missions, and eventually orbital refueling and moon landings as
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planned under NASA's Artemis program.
16:35
Let me know in the comments down below.
16:36
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So let me know what you think in the comments down below.
16:56
All right, that's it for today. Take care of yourselves and each
16:58
other and I'll see you in the next one.