Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / NFL DFS Week 8 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel Strategy

Transcript

NFL DFS Week 8 Leverage Lane | DraftKings & FanDuel Strategy · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All systems go.
• 0:06
  Speaker 2: Clear your liftoff. What's up everyone? Tyler Tamblyn here, AKA
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: toe tag and Tambo back for another edition of leverage
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: lane here on the ship at nation YouTube station. We
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: got week eight NFL DFS edition, myself, Alex Blickle here
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: with you as usual, going to be breaking down all
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: things for the main slate. We will talk about the
• 0:52
  Speaker 2: chalk build, how to leverage the chalk build, focusing on
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: it from a single entry perspective for these large field
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: GPPs might even talk some one lineup stuff this week.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: I know people got some tickets last week, Alex, Another
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: really good week. We always recap it a little bit,
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: but what a week for the both of us. And
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: I think you said it pre-show, it might be the
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: first time we've ever both picked up Mega Millie tickets
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: at the same time. I know that's an upcoming one.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: We do have the main event, the mid-season main event,
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: I should say this week, the $ 1, 500. But what's going on,
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: my friend? Coming off a big week seven. Excited about
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: this one.
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: Really fun week seven. And I think Week 8 is
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: fun for a lot of the same reasons. I think
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: one of the big advantages last week that we had,
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: and I think we played the slate really well, I
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: mentioned to you, pre-show, I felt like.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Last week was the best I've.
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: Played an NFL slate probably in like a year and
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: a half or something like that. So really excited to
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: kind of keep that momentum going. But I think part
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: of that was just recognizing how different last week's slate
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: was to all the slates we had previously in the season.
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: And I think this is another really unique one. And
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: when there's a unique slate, I think we're a little
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: bit more equipped to kind of figure out how to
• 1:53
  Speaker 3: attack that and play it well. Yeah.
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: Welcome in. Welcome in, everybody. I like this one from Darren.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: We don't have to say it. The others do for us,
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: but we appreciate you, Darren, always here supporting. Make sure
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: you guys do hit that thumbs up, subscribe to the channel.
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: All these shows are free. And it was a big
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: week last week, but to me, it's a lot more
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: about the takeaways. I know the running joke has always
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: been for me, like Tambo always wins in week seven,
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: almost won the Millie last week, had a real sweat
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: down the stretch. It was awesome. But I don't need
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: to go fully into that, but as much as I
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: think it's more about what I talk about and you
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: talk about all the time in Slate Dynamics. I like
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: last week as an example, I think the comments and,
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: you know, people in here being like, what are you,
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: what are you wasting time talking about Deshaun Watson versus
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: Cam Ward for? And like, why would that game even
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: be thought about and talked about? Like there's so many,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: don't you know, there's a huge game in the afternoon,
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: which I liked. My lane was going, I like going
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: that route. And you know, we saw a lot of
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: potential in that game, but then there was ways in
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: other lineups to account for it and handle it. And
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson didn't even have a huge game last week.
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: Fannin missed the bonus. He was in my Millie lineup. Like,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: you know, the Concepcion, great game.
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: Like things like that, where it made sense. But Amon
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: Ra as the one-off when, you know, the, I don't
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: know if it was late swap or what it was.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: You track the ownership more than I do probably of
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: like how it got there. But Gibbs did end up
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: getting to a much bigger number once that afternoon slate
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: unlocked and he was there. And it was to me
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: a bit surprising. That's not necessarily exactly why I had
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: Amon Ra in that lineup. It's just a note of
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: when you're not on something there. you have him, but
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: let's talk about the takeaways from last week. We'll look
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: at some of the success there, bring back that stuff
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: that we can apply towards week eight because different slate
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: for sure, but still a lot of things when the
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: season moves along that we can bring over and help
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: people with. So talk to me a little bit about that.
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it was kind of cool the way that Cleveland
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: game played out because one of the things we talked
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: about a lot last week was the reason why we're
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: talking so much about this Deshaun Watson versus Cam Ward
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: stack isn't just because we think it's going to do well.
• 3:43
  Speaker 3: In fact, we we like made it pretty clear. We
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: don't think this is going to be some like explosive game.
• 3:48
  Speaker 3: It's just what it allows us to do with the
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: rest of the lineup. So the fact that the game
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: played out in such a way where like Deshaun didn't
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: have some outlier outcome and you still almost won a
• 3:57
  Speaker 3: million dollars with it, despite like you could have very easily,
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: you know, accidentally landed on Tony Pollard as a bring back.
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: You didn't have Pollard. You were the highest scoring lineup
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: without Pollard. You still almost won a million dollars and
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: the game didn't go nuclear. Carnell Tate had a long
• 4:10
  Speaker 3: reception out at the one yard lines. Like that was
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: another way that the game could have hit even more. Uh,
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: so yeah, I, I think it played out in, in
• 4:18
  Speaker 3: a kind of a fun way because even though it
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: didn't hit, it showed what could have been accomplished.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: With that lineup.
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: I played four lineups last week, three of them cashed. Uh,
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: one was a top 10% outcome, but my highest scoring
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: lineup was a cam ward stack. And like, obviously cam
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: ward was atrocious, uh, but it allowed me to fit
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: a lot of stuff that I really liked. In addition
• 4:37
  Speaker 3: to Brock Bowers, who I played, I think in three
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: of the four, maybe even four of the four, uh,
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: he obviously didn't do that well, but That lineup had
• 4:45
  Speaker 3: Braylon Allen, Bucky Irving, T Higgins. So really hit on
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: those guys. And it was the cam ward stack that
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: allowed me to fit that. And so my leverage lane
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: this week, I teased it on Twitter already, but you know,
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: I had, I had three potential leverage lanes last week.
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: One was Bowers. Bowers is what I went with. He
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: didn't do that.
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: Well, the other two were the Cleveland game stack and
• 5:07
  Speaker 3: the Josh Jacobs pivot to kind of fade that green
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: Bay game and kind of a, what I hoped was
• 5:13
  Speaker 3: a clever way. And, and the other two worked out
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: really well and they were the little bit more contrary,
• 5:17
  Speaker 3: more off the wall type plays. And so I'm going
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: to over-correct if anything this week and a little bit
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: of a teaser here, but my, my leverage lane is
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: going to be the most off the wall leverage lane
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: I've ever given out and probably will ever give out
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: this season.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: And what's interesting is I know a little bit about
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: these things, but I do like it quite a bit. Actually,
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: I was on, even before you were talking about it
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: last night in your discord and I caught up on
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: it this morning, but I think that it's pretty interesting. And,
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: you know, I was already thinking that when the first
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: thought got there of like what everybody else is thinking
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: and obviously using this too, but it's just funny that
• 5:46
  Speaker 2: I was already looking at stuff there. And if you
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: look at props and everything, they were already kind of
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: in a place where you're like, Oh, that's interesting. Cause
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: I didn't expect that. So I'm excited for that. Bring
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: it later on. I brought up, My lineup from last week,
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: just so people can see it, using DFSOS.com. You guys
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: can check it out over there. Launched the contest vault
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: today to dig even deeper into these contests. Has the
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: FanDuel data as well. But just from this perspective, it
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: was Deshawn, Concepcion, Bannon. I didn't even have Pollard. In hindsight, obviously,
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: it's built with an optimizer. I wish that I had.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: Pollard right here. And then I could have had craft
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: right here, opposite Amundra. And I would have won everything,
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: but it's like, and it makes perfect sense because the secondary,
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: you still have a single stack with a run back.
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: Like it would have been fine, but the Bucky Irving
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: Buccaneers thing, I think it just didn't get talked about enough.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: Like we talk about Bucky squared and kind of made
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: fun of it a little bit on the Sunday show with,
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: with hoop title and myself. But the big thing for
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: me was like, once you're doing this, that means you're not,
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: you're most likely not playing coker. Okay. Well, who can
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: go in the place of coker? How about Higgins at
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: 5% on something else there? You've got that.
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: If I'm on the Buccaneers D and I'm not on
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: the popular Titans D, which everybody's going to this week, well,
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: why not use the stack against them? You know, things
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: like that where you're looking and this is what happens
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: when people say it's like the running joke that you
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: always win week seven and beyond. It becomes a lot more.
• 7:05
  Speaker 2: Once the pricing tightens up a little bit and for
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: certain weeks, like last week where we didn't have a
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: ton of value, it does become even more of the
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: game that we love to play and the chess pieces
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: and the um, game theory of it all. And like
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: making it make sense. I talk about the penthouse process, like, okay,
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: everyone's here, but what about it doing this move that
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: opens up this move, which lands you here. And hopefully
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: you're the one that they're popping the bottle for at
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: the end of the day in the penthouse party. But, uh,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: I was still up there. There was champagne getting sprayed
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: on me in 20, you know, for fourth place, just
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: wasn't all about me in first place, but really good
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: run there.
• 7:36
  Speaker 3: The, uh, the other thing I want to say about
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: that Bucky and Tampa combo, uh, is, and not only
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: did that leverage, uh, you know, Coker and, and even
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: Hubbard a little bit, but it also leveraged the Ted
• 7:50
  Speaker 3: Hearst chalk. Ted Hearst ended up like 40% in some
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: single entries in high stakes stuff. I don't know what
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: he was in, in this melee contest, but probably like 25,
• 7:58
  Speaker 3: 30 would be my guess. So he was still like a,
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: a really, you know, heavily used piece. And in this
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: kind of game script where the Bucks defense is doing
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: really well and Bucky's getting a ton of volume, like
• 8:09
  Speaker 3: there's just not a lot of passing volume to go
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: around for Hearst.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: That's exactly how it played out.
• 8:13
  Speaker 3: And so, I don't think you could have told the
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: story like any better for how the Tampa, for how
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: Bucky and Tampa kind of combined to do really well
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: and shut down Hearst. Like they were both necessary and
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: Hearst gets the zero. Like it literally couldn't have been
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: any better for that pairing. And I think it's just
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: a good reminder of like, you know, you and I
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: have talked a decent amount about how sometimes we think
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: running back defense pairings are overused. Sometimes mini stacks are overused.
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: And the reason is people just kind of say like, oh,
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: I'm clicking two players from the same game or, oh,
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: I'm clicking running back and defense. Therefore, I must have
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: a lot of added correlation. But what you did here
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: is like a much better example of, no, this is
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: an instance where there actually is a lot of correlation.
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: You actually are telling a very clear and coherent story
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: about not only how your guys do well, but how
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: their success actually leverages a lot of the chalk. that
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: you're not using. So I really liked that aspect.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: Of the lineup. And you guys know that there's a
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: single entry focus for GPPs. You should be focusing on that, right?
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: It's not like just getting the most off the wall play.
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: Even then, like I, it's funny because I know Alex
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: is going to bring up and off what most people
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: would consider an off the wall play. I don't even
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: think it is, but just to note it for later,
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: we're going to keep teasing this, I guess, but just
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: to note it, it's not just that somebody just said,
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: I think it was Berger. you know, shout out to
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: Bergo over in your discord and ours as well, but
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: it says, but it will, you know, it's what it
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: will allow you to accomplish that you wanted to accomplish
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: last week. It'll be the same thing here. People look
• 9:37
  Speaker 2: at like, Oh, that's way off the wall, but you
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: can now plug in almost anything you want around that.
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: Like we just showed another nice thing, just from a
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: contest selection standpoint. I think a lot of people, I
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: work with tons in the mentorship program and a DFS mastermind.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: They still like, I'm going to play these lineups in
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: satellites and these lineups in tournaments. And I'm like, no, no, no,
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: it's not, and or or sorry, it's and like you're
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: playing it in the millie. hoping to get that sweat.
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: And when it comes up just short, it's not ideal,
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: but it's still 25,000. It's amazing, but it's nice to
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: just boat race the king of the desert field and
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: get that ticket. So it's like, I'm playing it in
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: both directions. I'm not hoping that this line up was
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: here and saying, oh, what would have been if I
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: had had that in the Millie? I'm putting them together.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: So I think when you guys are doing your contest selection,
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: you should think about that depending on what you can afford.
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: Another interesting thing, and I'll show yours in a second,
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: but just on the other night for Thursday, people give
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: me shit for this because people don't like a defense captain,
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: but it's like the flow and the feel when you
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: get into like that Zen mode. So the Buccaneers against
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: Carolina just helped me a lot and won me a
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: bunch of money. So I was like, you know what?
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: Let me get one line up in there with the
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: Packers D captain. And it was a 5-1. It got
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: running back on the other side, really played for us,
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: a low scoring game. And we kind of got 27-19.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: It wasn't like over the 46 and a half. So
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: it worked out. It had Kraft. It had Jacobs. It
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: had Hubbard. It had And then I think it was
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: the Packers deer or whatever else it was in the Packers.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: He was in captain. But anyway, I never won this
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: many tickets in one run with a lineup. I got
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: two 44 44s, five main events for Sunday, just following
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: the path of that. And I know you, as we
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: talked about, had a huge night the other week, too.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: But Alex, you must play thousands of dollars to win
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: all these tickets and money that you do. And it's
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: right there on the screen. Three hundred and forty bucks
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: to win. a 4444 mega ticket 1500 bucks cash and
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: i like this comment everyone has different opinions i'm not
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: here for the back and forth on who's who but
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: the downside of me said the big gpp showdown bank
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: paid 3k i mean you won contest selection again like
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: just get in there like that that was fine and
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: if you had a you know put it in the
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: lottery or whatever it was like yes it's another 3k
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: but it's not like you missed out on something here
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: you put it where it actually could matter and pay
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: off the most and it most certainly did so congrats to.
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: You jesse's always grumpy well he we'll give him a pass.
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: He's just always grumpy, but, but yeah, I think, uh, it's,
• 11:53
  Speaker 3: it's cool to see, you know, all the, all the
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: showdown success children's been tremendous this year. I think, uh, I,
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: I did some of the, you know, hit rate study
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: that I do so far this season, I'm at like
• 12:04
  Speaker 3: 33% top 10, uh, percent outcomes in showdown and something
• 12:09
  Speaker 3: like 8% top 1% so far this year. So hopefully
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: that continues, but, uh, I think the key there is like, well,
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: what is it about showdown that's allowing us to have
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: that success?
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: It's it was showdown.
• 12:20
  Speaker 3: It's so easy to just tell like one coherent story
• 12:23
  Speaker 3: about how the game plays out in a, in an
• 12:27
  Speaker 3: unexpected way. And obviously with main slate, like you have
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: to tell a coherent story about how eight games or
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: 10 games combined to play out in an unexpected way,
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: but not too unexpected. And so like, it's, it's a
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: little bit harder to do that, but we're trying to
• 12:41
  Speaker 3: accomplish the same thing. It's, We're playing the game of
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: DFS so much more than we're playing fantasy football and
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: just trying to predict who's going to do well.
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess the only other thing, I don't know what,
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: I mean, we could talk a little bit about the
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: Brock Bauer stuff. I'll definitely, I wanted that leverage lane.
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: I'll let you claim it now. No problem, friend. You
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: can keep that one. I wasn't on that at all. No,
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: I'm kidding. You know, continue. We'll have a conversation on
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: that later. I think the other thing that people wanted
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: to hit on a little bit, just as you take
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: away from last week to this week, this week, we're
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: talking about an earlier game, Arizona-Dallas. There's other games, of course.
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: I'm saying not like last week, but last week, the
• 13:13
  Speaker 2: big game sort of busted again, right? You could get there.
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, in the end, the Millie Maker lineup got
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: there with Goff That was the funny part too. My
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: leverage lane was like Goff, Jamo, Laporta, everything. It wasn't
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: all that, but it was a Goff, Jamo, Amun-Ra lineup
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: that passed me. So it was three of the four
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: guys that I was on in that, that ended up
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: actually beating me for the Millie maker win. But it
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: wasn't like the game really went off crazy. You didn't
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: need like Gibbs. I saw the guy in the man.
• 13:39
  Speaker 2: What was, what was the other Millie last week? The,
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: there was two of them. Was there a big, was
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: it just a five, five, five thing was the five, five, five.
• 13:46
  Speaker 2: last week and the second place lineup in that lost
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: by four points and had Gibbs. Can you imagine like
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: going into the afternoon and feeling like, oh man, I
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: got the highest Gibbs. I'm right in the mix of everything.
• 13:54
  Speaker 2: There wasn't much else going on. And those, it for
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: movement in those ones, it was like, yeah, there was
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: the game stacks back there, but the way the games went,
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: it was like you land up there and you had
• 14:02
  Speaker 2: the highest Gibbs. You got to feel like four points off.
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: What the hell happened? He got nothing going on really there,
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: but anything to add on that for the big game
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: stuff that everyone attacks or also anything else you want
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: to hit on before we move on to this week?
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Well, I thought....
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: So last week was really interesting because we had that really,
• 14:25
  Speaker 3: really cheap wide receiver chalk that allowed people to play
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: the expensive game stack in kind of whatever way they wanted.
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: It was hard to get to Gibbs.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: Obviously, it was hard to get to Amon Ross St. Brown, too.
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: It was really weird that Jameson really held all week as...
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: the cheapest piece of that game because I also felt
• 14:45
  Speaker 3: like he was the best piece in the game stack
• 14:48
  Speaker 3: in terms of he's the guy who's really going to
• 14:50
  Speaker 3: speed it up. So he had the really big game.
• 14:53
  Speaker 3: So my love stack, the one of four lineups that
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: I played with Jordan Love, I felt like I played
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: it right. I had Watson and Golden and Jamison Williams
• 15:03
  Speaker 3: and I got the huge game from Williams but didn't
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: get it from the Green Bay guys. So yeah, it
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: was just kind of a weird week in that way.
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: But Again, I felt like I played it really well,
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: had the slate surrounded, and just it all broke so
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: that all three of those lineups that were really inversely
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: correlated to one another ended up in the same spot
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: instead of one of them really separating and potentially going
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: to get a takedown. But I feel really good about
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: things this week and excited to kind of talk through it.
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: And I think we have a very unique starting point
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: this week if you want to start there just like
• 15:36
  Speaker 3: kind of with the Maybe just a quick slate overview
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: of what about this slate is so different from anything
• 15:42
  Speaker 3: else we've seen this year.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a couple things. I'll go there in
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: just one second. Sorry, the warm-up event was last week,
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: the 150, right? The $ 150, which was a lot of fun.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: It's Grex, really good dude. He had 213. I guess
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: it ended up being about five points back, but had
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: Jameer Gibbs. Mind you, the guy in first was probably
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: happy at the end of the day, but where were
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: those puka points when he needed them? Probably stressing that
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: down the stretch. It was almost a blow, and our boy...
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: We can claim this guy now, Coram. He just keeps
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: going off. And there was a big touchdown call back
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: last week as well that kind of hurt me because
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: that would have been 34 or 35 to six and
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: probably shut shit down. Instead, it all of a sudden
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: became like the gentee touchdown through the air, which the
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: ultimate Millie maker winner in the $ 20 ended up having
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: gentee in that same stack with JMO and Jared Goff
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: and all those guys. So it was like, I couldn't
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: even win first after all that stuff happened. But Coram
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: just keeps going off for sure.
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: Yeah. He actually had two touchdowns called back and then
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: also scored one. So later later, it's crazy. That could
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: have been enormous for him. So yeah, that was a,
• 16:47
  Speaker 3: that was a bit of a bummer, but we're all
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: over that. And hopefully we can continue making some pretty
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: good calls, even though we both missed on Bowers. That
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: was like the, the one thing that I felt like
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: I didn't do well last week. And now, now when
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: I say that, like, I think the logic was sound.
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: I'm going to go right back to it this week.
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: I think in a lot of places we'll talk through that, but,
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: But yeah, it was unfortunate that didn't hit bigger because
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: Bowers could have been awesome last week. And then that
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: Watson stack becomes even better because he was like one
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: of the main ways that we were fitting that. Yeah.
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: So I don't know exactly what you had in mind.
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: I'll give a quick overview of my thoughts first off,
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: and then I'll let you take it away and sort
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: of add to it. It's probably best, but I think
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: like the biggest difference and that's what sort of people
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: are always wanting to look at is like where the
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: big totals are and all of that. But we do
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: have Arizona, Dallas and Buffalo, Baltimore, both going on at
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: the same time. It does seem like people want way
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: more action on one than the other. And that is
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: the Arizona Dallas, which we'll get to in a second.
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: And that's mainly, I think, because of, you know, we
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: got good news that Lamar is likely to play. Mind you,
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: Minter is still saying, like, we hope or we think
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: we'll have him out there. It's like he's been practicing.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: It should be the case. And that's what I'm expecting.
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: But you just never know with these coaches sometimes and
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: these players, the way it works out. But I would
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: expect him to be there. The total's up. We're good there.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: But then they're saying about how he can't, you know,
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: plant his foot exactly. And all this other stuff that
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: sort of scares people away. And then they don't know, right.
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: Zay gets love for sure. But on the other side,
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: King Kate is still questionable, likely to go more is
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: still questionable. So it's like, and people never think they
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: can get Josh Allen, right. So then they're discussing playing
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: him naked, but he's more expensive and so on and
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: so forth. So it's, After that, though, there is a
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: ton of big, you know, big enough, 46, 45 and
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: a half, 45. Like there's a lot of games in
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: there that you can go to and a lot of
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: very stackable offenses with tighter target trees. So, you know,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: that that makes sense to me there. What were you
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: seeing and thinking as well? And then obviously we'll get
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: to some of those stacks later and stuff once we
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: talk about the chalk build, how to leverage it and
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: then other game stacks we can pivot to. But what
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: are you thinking with the overview here?
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: So I think the really unique thing about this week
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: is it's the first week of the season where I
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: think the luxury payups are almost universally a wide receiver
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: and not running back. Now, it does look like the
• 18:58
  Speaker 3: field is going to try to get to Bajon a
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: little bit and to Gibbs. But I think the field
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: is probably overestimating Gibbs ownership at this point in the week.
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: I think Javante will probably be the most popular, like,
• 19:10
  Speaker 3: quote unquote, big spend at running back. But I think
• 19:12
  Speaker 3: most of the running back ownership is going to be
• 19:14
  Speaker 3: more mid-tier type stuff. And I think people are going
• 19:17
  Speaker 3: to try to get to, let's see, lamb chase flowers,
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: probably the big three Higgins has a chance as well. Uh,
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: Puka for sure. Jefferson, London pickings. We'll get some Parker.
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: Washington's going to get some. So I think this is
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: the first week where people are saving elsewhere to get
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: to wide receiver spends instead of to get to running
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: back spends. And, uh, and I think that kind of
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: changes things, uh, quite a bit. And, It sets the
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: table for what my leverage lane is going to be
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: at the end.
• 19:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess, I mean, I agree with all of that,
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: 100% actually, but it's also... what I don't know, and
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: you know, the chat's talking about it and you do
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: ownership for a living as well. So it's like, you
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: understand the concepts of like very well of like, if
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: this happens, that means this. And we talk about it
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: all the time during your golf. If a $ 6, 500 value
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: is pushing up, then like, guess how much easier it
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: is to get to Scotty Scheffler, you know, things like that.
• 20:09
  Speaker 2: It's kind of the same here. And I think Chase
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: Brown will be the highest owned running back. I think
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: you probably think that as well. I'm pretty sure, but
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: Javante Williams is definitely steaming up. And to me, I get,
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: we talk about it all the time of like quarterback
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: with running back, all this stuff, and you can do it.
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: Of course you can do it. It's not about if
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: you can do it or not. It's if people steam
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: up Javante, I feel like that's more in lineups that
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: they're not on Dak. And then I wonder if the
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: Dak high ownership that everyone's seeing right now actually comes
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: back a little bit and tightens up and sort of
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: spreads it out even more than, you know, right now
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: we're just seeing Dak pull away a little bit. And
• 20:50
  Speaker 2: then we're seeing the guys after him I don't know, though, man. Like,
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: you know, you've got Joe Burrow, who I think could
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: steam up a little. He's 700 bucks more. We already
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: know Chase and Higgins are both popping. If people want
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: to leverage Chase Brown some, you can play him with
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: Chase Brown. That's another game. And then you've got the
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: injuries on the other side with no Tate and no Spears.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: So don't know if people are going to go back
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: to Pollard after that amazing game. We'll talk on some
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: interesting stuff there later. But I think that's just my thought.
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Like, I just don't see both Dak
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: and Javante being super high owned I feel like it's
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: more Javante. He fits every build to your point. It's like,
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: you can put Chase Brown, Javante in any stack this week,
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: right away. No problem.
• 21:28
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: I think, I do think we'll see plenty of both.
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: I think we'll see plenty of, uh, CD lamb as well.
• 21:37
  Speaker 3: I think one, one potential path to Dak, not ending
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: up as high owned as people expect is if a
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: lot of that ownership just shifts to Jacoby percent and
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: people play, play the game through him instead, uh, which is,
• 21:50
  Speaker 3: Very possible, but it is worth noting that it's not
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: like Dak and Brissette are that far apart price-wise. It's
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: only a $ 600 difference, which I think is probably going
• 22:02
  Speaker 3: to keep Brissette in check and allow Dak to get
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: up there in ownership.
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's a good point, but that's also what I'm seeing.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: Like I said, I think they're both definitely high. We
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: know Javante's high-owned. You just go look at your rosters.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: For everybody that builds their rosters way too early, like
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: I know you have already... Go look at them and
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: tell me why it's Chase Brown, Javante Williams, and Tootin
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: in your two running back spots in your flex. Because
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: I already can see your lineup. It's like everybody knows.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: So that's the one that I get. But that's what
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: I'm saying is, you know what's really easy to wrap
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: around that? It's kind of just what it leaves open.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: Is that wraps around like the... Brissette, Bourne, and there's
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: even a lot of stuff on X and things like
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: that that I'm seeing with Michael Wilson getting talked up
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: again now because it's just affordable to make all that fit.
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: The other thing that I think is interesting, and you
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: kind of said it off the top, it's just one
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: thing leads to another, is last week people were building
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: for Stars and Scrubs because we had the 3K Hearst
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: and so on and so forth. Mm-hmm. This week, while
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: we are picking up some values, people are just shitting
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: on everyone that pops up, right? It's like Jonah Coleman. No,
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know about that. Like people will get there.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying in general, it's like, they're not in
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: love with that. There's so many other good running backs.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: Do you need them? Wanda Robinson, he just catches the
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: ball and falls on it. Like, why would I ever
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: play him at 4,200? Like that's the case. And so
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: what you're seeing is people, and you even said it earlier,
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: when you've got those three running backs, I just said,
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: Then you've got, don't forget guys like Higgins that are
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: picking up steam. Like it's all the mid range guys
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: that are going to just be filled in. And there's
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: ways that those lineups can just get stomped on that
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: we'll get to here in a little bit. But do
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: you want to start with the chalk build and just
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: sort of roll out what we think? Yeah.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: So I, I very much agree with your running backs.
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: I will also toss in Ramondre Stevenson at 5,600 as
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: a really popular pick.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: He's actually who I have second.
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: In, uh, in single entry and high stakes ownership and
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: getting over 30% in high stakes. So, uh, I, you know, again, like,
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: I think that's, that's once again, evidence that both the
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: field and like, I agree with the field on this
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: point that the, the goal of this slate is largely
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: to get to as many of those stud wide receivers
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: that have the slate breaking upside as possible. And both
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: Chase Brown and Ramondre Stevenson are like a really easy
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: foundation to help do that as his base hall toon.
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: I think that's probably, if anything, that's what's going to
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: keep Javante Williams in check. Now, I have Williams as
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: the third most popular running back at the moment, but
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: only slightly over 20%. And I think the reason why
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: he's probably not going to get to 30%, 35%, 40%
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: is just because people actually want to spend money elsewhere
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: and want to save money at running back this week
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: more so than pretty much any slate we've seen so
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: far this season. And we have the pieces to actually
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: do that in Brown, Stevenson, and Toon.
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: And I'll add to that. I'm glad you brought that
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: up because I said earlier, I can see your lineups
• 24:50
  Speaker 2: out there. You just, you just tried to cover them up,
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: but you actually showed me more because now what I
• 24:55
  Speaker 2: just saw when Alex mentioned that is don't forget in
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: the Tootin version, I see Hunter Henry in your tight
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: end spot. And when you take out the Tootin version
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: and go to Ramondre Stevenson, I can see Brenton strange.
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: in your tight end spot. And by the way, Tootin
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: dropping 300 and Hunter Henry dropping 300 to flip it
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: gives you 600, which by my math and what we
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: discussed earlier gives you reset to DAC. Oh, wow. We're
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: starting to build these things out now. So you can
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: start to see it pretty quickly. I really like this
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: week for that reason, how it shapes out and how
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: the results shake out. We'll be interesting. Wait and see.
• 25:30
  Speaker 2: Hopefully great. But I'm just, you know, week eight be great.
• 25:33
  Speaker 2: I like that one. But just to note it, I
• 25:35
  Speaker 2: think it's, you know, when we know that Alex, I
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: think you and I feel a lot better going into
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: a slate because it's like, we're getting ownership numbers can
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: even be off slightly, but it's all the game theory
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: that comes with that. I'm like, okay, if everyone's doing this,
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: how can I do it where it's not silly, stupid,
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: whatever the word you want to use is, but do
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: it in an intelligent way that can also give you
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: a better S than silly and stupid, which is separation.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: And we're looking for that, right? How can I separate,
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: but do it in a way that's not insane and
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: completely off the board. Let's just, you know, we don't
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: need just all this other stuff. And that's why I
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: said earlier, even when you give your leverage lane later
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: and he comes in super low owned, that doesn't mean
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: you're just jamming eight more plays like that, right? That
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: you're using, that's your unlock to what you're doing with
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: the rest of your build. And it not only, it
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: does twofold. It's, it's going to be probably triple leverage, right?
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: Because it's going to leverage something. It's going to leverage
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: roster construction. And then you're going to put some sort
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: of leverage in there based on how the slate shaping
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: out and what you want to use. So I think
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: it's going to be really good. And really just this,
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: I'll say, I don't know if you have a different
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: answer for this, but I mean, one is obviously ownership, right?
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: We know to start with the ownership, but it's just
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: what this show is about, Steven. Like we're sitting on
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: here building and we're going to show you what the
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: chalk build is or some variation of it or close to.
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: And then when you know that, if you don't know that,
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: you know, then I don't know how you can do it, right?
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: That you can build good lineups. I just don't know
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: if you can build great or excellent lineups. And when
• 27:00
  Speaker 2: I talk about the penthouse process of like, everyone's doing this,
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: they're on floor one. Oh, someone says, I learned a
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: little bit though. I'm getting up to the next story.
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: I'm going to flip this and do this instead. Okay.
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: But the best players are at the top of the
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: building in the penthouse chilling because they're doing moves that
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: are using all this stuff to leverage it to their advantage.
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: And that's what we're trying to help you guys with.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: here today and talk about. So, um, where do you
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: want to start for the chalk bill? Do you want
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: to just plug in like, I guess, chase Brown for sure.
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: What else?
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, let's go. Let's go chase Brown.
• 27:31
  Speaker 3: Uh, do you want to do Stevenson or do you
• 27:34
  Speaker 3: want to save Henry for tight end?
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Well, let's go tootin.
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was going to say, let's go to do
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: you think more people are on Henry or strange? The
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: ownership is so close that, you know, it's hard to tell.
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: And I don't know what you have it at right now. Obviously,
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: our stuff is all just sitting on initials. But it
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: feels like there's this like setup of Mason Taylor just
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: crushed this team. So therefore, Hunter Henry's got to crush
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: this team. And then you never know what these Patriots
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: running backs. And so I feel like more people want
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: the home running back in Tutin. And then you end
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: up having more Henry. But what do you think?
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I have I have more.
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: Uh, Stevenson ownership projected into an ownership, but that could change.
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: I'm pretty confident that Henry's going to be higher than strange.
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: I only have strange at like 15%. I have Henry
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: over 20% single entry. So I definitely think that he's
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: going to be the guy that people really go to.
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: And that's, that's partially because of the matchup with Miami.
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: It's also like, there's no AJ Brown. There's no Mac Collins.
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: There's no, uh, you know, there, there just, uh, there's
• 28:32
  Speaker 3: no Romeo Dobbs. Like there are a lot of passing
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: weapons out for new England and people want a piece
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: of that, that offense kind of no matter what. And
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: I think Henry's the clear and obvious answer, whereas the receivers,
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: it's like, okay, well, all these guys, even though they
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: have real opportunity this week, and you can argue that
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: the receivers have really nice ceilings for their prices, they
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: also have really low floors. Henry has a really nice floor.
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: So I think that's going to be a popular play.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: And honestly, if.
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: In my update tonight, I end up with Henry Over 30%?
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to be surprised. He's a very clear
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: and obvious play as a salary-saving option this week.
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think this is it. I'm just showcasing it, though,
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: because this is one thing I am saying earlier with
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: my Dak situation is obviously we can find a way
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: to make this Dak quite easily and move a couple
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: pieces around. But just to note it, it gets you
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: like a balanced piece of everything. Like, what are you
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: missing here, right? You've got Burrow, Brown, Higgins, Aya Manor
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: on the other side just because he's cheap. Obviously, Wandale
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: could be popular at $ 4, 200 as well, most likely will be.
• 29:37
  Speaker 2: It looks like people want the one-off in that game today.
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: be Zay, right? They want to get a piece of
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: that Baltimore-Buffalo game. You got Jacksonville. You got Dallas still covered.
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: You got Denver, because people just are like, hey, if
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: I'm going to play the cheap defense, let's get the
• 29:49
  Speaker 2: one at home against Mahomes. Some of those guys are
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: a bit banged up, even though they're coming back. Whatever, whatever.
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: But we can make any flip to this. I'm just
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: showing that this is a a lineup that I think
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: a lot of people will have some variation of being
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: able to get to this. Obviously plugging DAC into it
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: is not that hard. We actually pick up $ 700. Yeah.
• 30:08
  Speaker 3: There's a, there's a question in the chat. How do
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: we determine what the field is going to do? And,
• 30:13
  Speaker 3: and yeah, so like the first thing here is we're
• 30:16
  Speaker 3: not using an optimizer to determine what the field is
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: going to do. We're using like years of study of
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: what the field does. That's, that's how I create my
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: ownership projections. That's how I create my field lineups for
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: the contest Sims. That's, It's not something that I'm depending
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: on some tool to help me do.
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: I've built the stuff that's helping us do this.
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: And it's also just like, I think anybody who plays
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: DFS over time, you just kind of get a sense
• 30:42
  Speaker 3: of this. And especially as we build the most popular,
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: as we try and build out what the chalk build
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: looks like, so much of this is just, what are
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: the easy clicks? What are the clicks that people are
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: going to make where, they feel like there's not a
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: single thing about that click that's giving them pause or
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: giving them any kind of uneasy feeling. It's clear and
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: obvious to them that, hey, what I'm doing right now
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: is not a mistake, and that's, I think, a lot
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: of what the chalk build ends up looking like.
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's definitely an art to the science. Like you said,
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: I think another thing that gets confused, I talk about
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: this all the time over at Ship It Nation because
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: we run the simulations as well with our data versus
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: like maybe what I'm Stephen's talking about. But like when
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: it says optimal, that's optimal lineup. That's the whole thing.
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: So it's like, again, you have to go back and
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: look at it and think about it. It's like, you
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: can plug all those guys in in a way that
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: makes sense. Sure. But it's like, that's on an entire,
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: that's them hitting the optimal lineup, not just them as
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: an optimal play. So at the end of the day, Um,
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: it's sort of how you're putting the pieces together as well,
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: but from Alex's point and stand, you know, his point
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: of view and that you stance there, it is true
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: that like, there's also a lot of the art that
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: goes into it. I'm just saying, okay, I think more
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: would do this. And if they do this, then that
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: would probably mean they just land here. Like, that's why
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: I said, I don't think this is the exact chalk build.
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: But it's just an example where someone might see this
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: and be like, damn, that looks like a pretty good lineup.
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: It does. It's on paper. It's a lot of the
• 32:05
  Speaker 2: best plays. That's why you see there's heavy ownership associated
• 32:09
  Speaker 2: with all of them and position dependent, like 11% quarterback
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: is still pretty high when most quarterbacks sit at five
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: or 6% or less. So it's like, there's a ton
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: of ways to look at it. but then it's also
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: a product of how people are playing the slate. We
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: do have a three K guy like Hearst last week,
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: but then everyone's sort of filling it out. The balanced version,
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: the rest of the way, you don't see Gibbs. You
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: don't see Robinson. You don't see McBride. You don't see
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: Jamar chase. You don't see lamb in this lineup. You
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: don't see Amin. I could keep going on any expensive defenses.
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: There's like, you're not seeing any of that in this build, but,
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: And that's part of the issue that sometimes comes up
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: because then that's not the build you need. And this
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: is nowhere near what those lineups would look like. Cause
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: not only are you missing those expensive pieces, but you're
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: missing the build around them and how it works together.
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: That's what the Deshaun Watson stuff worked out and came
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: in last week. Cause last week, most people were on
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: the studs, not the mid range opposite of this. Yeah.
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: Another thing I want to do with this lineup is let's,
• 33:04
  Speaker 3: let's take a look at what happens. So let me
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: start here actually. Burrow projects under 10%. So I think
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: a lot of people watching might be like, well, why
• 33:12
  Speaker 3: do you have Burrow in here? Well, Burrow is an example,
• 33:15
  Speaker 3: like one of those easy clicks that just kind of
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: naturally happens based on what else is in the lineup.
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: So T Higgins, Chase Brown, both very naturally in this
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: chalk build. I am manner very naturally in this chalk
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: build is like the one punt that people seem really
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: intrigued by. And so if you already have like two
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: Bengals and a Titan, Burrow makes a ton of sense.
• 33:35
  Speaker 3: So given that, like one of the things that people might,
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: try to do to be, you know, quote unquote, like
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: one play removed from the chalk bill, which they, they
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: hope is different enough is since we're going burrow. What
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: if you take chase Brown to Higgins, Javante down to
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: Ramond Dre, and then let's go Henry to strange. And it,
• 34:03
  Speaker 3: it's also possible like people might leave Henry. They might
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: not go to strange since Tutin's already in this lineup.
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: I don't think people are going to be too turned
• 34:10
  Speaker 3: off to that, but like, there are also, you know,
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: other cheap tight ends that they could go to instead.
• 34:14
  Speaker 3: So like maybe it's Kate Otten instead or, or Mark Andrews,
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: although we, you know, are, you know, Hawkinson or Raredon,
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: you know, there, there are plenty of cheap options this week, but,
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: It might still.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: Be something like this, though, too. I think the Steelers
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: will be the popular payout defense when people are paying up.
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: And this gets Javante back in while still covering the angles.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: Well, what I wanted to.
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: Do here was I wanted to see if it's doable
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: to do a burrow double with Chase as well. So
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: instead of Javante, I want Chase in there.
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: Let me get Chase in.
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: And it may be.
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: So I think it's probably doable if you just go
• 34:52
  Speaker 3: cheap at defense.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: Let's go to sort by ownership and we'll just use,
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: I'll use the Broncos. If we need 300 bucks, we'll
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: go down to the chargers, but this leaves you 600
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: bucks still to go wherever you want.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, like, I mean, this is, this is set.
• 35:08
  Speaker 3: So, uh, yeah, I mean, people could go up from strange, whatever,
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: but point being here is like, it's not difficult to
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: build a Cincinnati double this week because of IO manner.
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: So the Cincinnati double, I think is going to be
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: used more often this week than it has so far
• 35:24
  Speaker 3: this season. You know, I think, A lot of the
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: times we kind of group the Cincinnati double in with
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: the Dallas double. Well, the Dallas double is going to
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: be harder to get to because there isn't the super
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: cheap ring back that Tennessee has.
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: In Iowa manner.
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: So, you know, that's something to think of. But the
• 35:40
  Speaker 3: one reason why I would hesitate to say what we
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: just built is a potential chalk build is because there
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: wasn't a single cowboy in it. So.
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: I like, I fixed it to put a cowboy in
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: it though. I swapped Zay to lamb. And then you
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: just drew out a drop down chargers from Broncos and
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: you're not on any Rams. So you feel good about
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: the chargers at stone minimum. Yeah. You've got the double
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: stack with the run back. You got, you know, burrow
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: Higgins chase. I am manner. you've got your double Jacksonville,
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: but it's like a running back and a tight end.
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: So I guess like people won't care. I don't think
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: people will care about that too much. Same reason earlier
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: when we said, I actually don't think it's crazy to
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: think you'll see Ramond Ray with Henry in lineups as well.
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: And when people don't stack that game, because they don't
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: want to try and figure out Drake may, and we're
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: still waiting on AJ Brown news. And then there's, kyle
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: williams and efton chisholm and demario douglas and you name
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: it right there's so many guys there that you could
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: go to so i think people just would rather say
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: hey give me some new england but let's just do
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: it this way and play romandre and or henry this
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: is just the flip of that because it is the
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: exact same by the way you i mean you have
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: romandre in there but it's like there's 300 bucks 300
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: bucks it would be a different 5600 guy but it
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: just goes to show or move a couple things around
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: but i definitely think This is kind of what we'll see.
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: The only difference is that Chase Brown is going to
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: be super popular no matter what. He's getting pushed off
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: the board.
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: Timothy in the chat asking if we think that Dak
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: is going to be lower on the bro.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: No.
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: What we're showing here is just that this is a
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: very natural double stack that people are going to get to.
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: One of the things I think that we're showing here
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: is that it's yet another example of conditional ownership. If
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: you're kind of building something that's very chalky, then burrow
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: actually might fit more naturally than Dak, but remember that
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: like most of the field isn't necessarily building from the
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: chalk out the way we are when we're trying to
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: do the chalk build here. There's a lot of people
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: are starting their lineup with, okay, what is the stack
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: that I want? And more people are going to start
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: with the idea of, I want to use Dak Prescott
• 37:36
  Speaker 3: this week. And that's why Dak's going to end up higher.
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: But it does mean that like, if you're built something
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: really chalky and then you go with burrow, like, that's
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: probably not getting you as low conditional ownership as you
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: think that you're running into higher conditional ownership that way.
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: And so I.
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: Think the other thing it shows is kind of, you know, what,
• 37:55
  Speaker 3: what Timothy then alluded to next with like the main
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: naked build, where I think what we're going to see
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: is other quarterbacks just might be less correlated. So if
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: you're going with Dak, it's probably more likely to be
• 38:04
  Speaker 3: a single with just lamb and, or maybe it's, you know,
• 38:08
  Speaker 3: It's the other way around to get Lamb where people
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: are using Brissette with just McBride or just Wilson and
• 38:13
  Speaker 3: then using just Lamb as the bring back or using
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: Lamb and Javante as the bring back.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: That's another option. And so I think it's just, it's.
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: A little bit harder to figure out the ways in
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: which people are going to use Dak and there's a
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: wider variety. Whereas that Burrow build is like very clear
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: and obvious in how it's going to happen because it's
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: being played through some of the chalkiest pieces on the slate.
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you nailed it. And I think, again,
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: my point earlier was I still agree with you, but
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: I definitely think that Dak and Joe Burrow are going
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: to tighten up. I'm just in my early look here.
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: What I think is going to happen is because it
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: just shows like it just gets to that. And also
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: when anytime you see like people always ask about this
• 38:51
  Speaker 2: and like try and figure it out. And I'll just
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: use an example. But anytime you see big projections, big ownership,
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: big optimal, whatever you see of like Chase Higgins. And
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: a value, multiple value plays. People tend to lean towards that.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: And also when you see the ownership on a guy
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: like Chase Brown, I mean, it's probably even higher than this,
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: especially in the high stakes. But, you know, the note
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: is that when people see that sometimes it's not enough.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: to matter, but I'm just noting where it can come,
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: where it can sort of bring itself over to the
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: quarterback position and stacks is that some people get a
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: little fed up because by the end, they've been hearing
• 39:22
  Speaker 2: chase Brown chase by the end of the week. Like,
• 39:24
  Speaker 2: you know what? I'm gonna just move off that guy
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: and it's like you could have just played them differently
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: but just to note it like that's or i'll play
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: them with them and whatever else you which you can
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: definitely do but just seeing it from that perspective i
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: was just going back here to try and get chase
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: back in Nobody wants it. This is another interesting thing.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: I'll show in a second. Who's 74 is what's his
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: name already? Javante. So something like this is really interesting,
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: I guess, because I think like when you have Chase
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: Brown and Higgins, this has Lamb and Javante. So you
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: got to I mean, you can make more moves and
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: different moves. I'm just showcasing this that I see this sometimes, Blickle,
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: and I look. And you know, it was a hundred
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: bucks less than T Higgins. And then you can move
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: stuff around, but nobody, I mean, it's a hamstring. We
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: got to worry. It's a big, you know, it could
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: be a big deal, but sometimes when you see something
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: like this and people are like, well, it's just Higgins.
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: I can't play Jamar chase, but you already got chase
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: Brown too, which could slow the game down. It could
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: be all him on the ground. Like sometimes it's better
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: to just like plug in that guy and get somebody
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: that's a lower own piece of a stack that you're
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: already on. And we'll see where Pickens ownership actually comes in.
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: But I definitely think it's, it's another way to look
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: at things on a slate like this. When you're, when
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: you're looking at stacks, and where they land. Sometimes it's
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: more about just getting the secondary piece or the piece
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: that actually makes the stack go versus just playing the
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: chalk one-off or something like that. I mean, I'll just
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: plug him in because he's a good projection. Yeah.
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: I mean, that could also be a Michael Wilson bring
• 40:45
  Speaker 3: back there to help push Dak and that offense.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: So a lot of options here.
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: I think, I think one of the things that people
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: are hopefully realizing as we do this is just, it's,
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: it's a lot easier to get to these, you know,
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: pretty expensive wide receivers but not super expensive wide receivers
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: and part of that is like no no wide receiver
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: on the slate is priced anywhere close to jameer gibbs
• 41:08
  Speaker 3: uh or or even bishan robinson other than puka so
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: uh it's really easy to get to them in part
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: because we actually have the running backs this week to
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: do it which is something we haven't had a lot
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: of this year you know there have been some slates
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: where it was like 6100 was the pay down option
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: and it was like okay i could go down to
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: 61 and save some money at running back but now
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: i'm giving up a ton of projection elsewhere, it's like
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: this week, they're actually probably the best values just from
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: a pure projection standpoint anyway, and they help get to
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: the wide receiver. So I think it's very, very clear
• 41:39
  Speaker 3: that the chalk build this week from a structural standpoint
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: is mid-tier to cheap running back, pay up at wide receiver,
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: save money at tight end.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And I think like, this is a good one
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: from Brian here says so far, it sounds like stud
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: tight end is going to be underplayed, especially Bowers, et cetera,
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: et cetera, but which I agree with. And that's where
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: the Bowers conversation comes in. But to Alex's point there too.
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: So I think this, I think triple stacks is, will
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: be severely underplayed. And in higher stakes, smaller fields, we
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: know those are good. And also the fact that the
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: setup of the slate, there's so many close games and
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: no one knows which one it is. So if you
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: find something like that, it can work. We just showed
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: how a lot of people, even in a Dak or Burrow,
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: the two most popular quarterbacks right now, even in those lineups,
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: some people are stopping at a single stack. I mean,
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: people will get to the doubles, but I'm saying if
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: you go anything further than that, definitely underplayed. If you
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: look at running backs, not once. Look at this. Look
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: at this thing. When have we seen a week? Look
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: at this week. Gibbs, Kenneth Walker against the chalk defense
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: down low. One of them, B. John Robinson, James Cook,
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: Jonathan Taylor, Kyron Williams, like all those guys aren't getting
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: talked about at all. Really? Gibbs will make his way
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: in some because there's ways to get there. And I
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: get that. And he probably should write 9,500 bucks. You
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: can still do it, but just noting it. And then
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: after that, even You've got Derek Henry, Jenty. If Jenty
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: doesn't do it this week, I don't know if he
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: ever does it, by the way, and he might not,
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: but it's a pretty good spot for him this week
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: with the guys' jets are down in the run game there.
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: So I think Jenty in the run game could be
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: good against their front. You've got Jalen Warren, Bucky Irving,
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: other options to await and see. But just to note it,
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: you're not seeing anyone pay up at running back. Look
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: at all those names. We never get a slate with
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: all these guys on it at once, and they're all
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: on it, but nobody wants any of them. You said
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: it here. Look.
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: Well, just real quick, I mean, think back to the
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: pricing in week one and take notice of how much
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: more the pricing at running back has moved than pricing
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: at wide receiver. I think that's a big, big reason
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: why we're seeing more ownership at the wide receiver position. Like,
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: you know, at the beginning of the year, imagine someone
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: telling you that Kenneth Walker would be like, almost $ 2, 000
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: more expensive than all of Justin Jefferson, Drake London, T Higgins,
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: George Pickens, Parker Washington, and that those receivers would be
• 43:56
  Speaker 3: having some pretty good years or, or at least, you know,
• 43:59
  Speaker 3: they'd be having some real spike weeks where like, you know,
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: you're getting a top end ceiling from them at almost $ 2, 000
• 44:08
  Speaker 3: cheaper than Kenneth Walker at this point in the year.
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: It could be a very, very surprising thing to hear.
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: I agree a hundred percent. And that's, that's definitely part
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: of it. But the other thing is too, you don't
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: often see why a wide receiver position. I'm just trying
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: to see here in high stakes stuff. Let's say what
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: we got. Zay Higgins, lamb chase.
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: Yep. Yeah.
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: Does London actually get there? Don't know.
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: I think so.
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 44:37
  Speaker 2: I think I haven't heard one person mentioned them all
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: week or stacking anything in that game at all. not
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: no Bijan, no London, no nothing. So it's like, yeah,
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: sorry to cut you off, but I'm just saying like, yeah, okay.
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: Even if he gets there, let's just give it to
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: him and say he's in the mix. How often are
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: we also seeing these wide receivers just capped at like
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: 15 ish, obviously the high state stuff, they're going to
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: get to your 25s and things like that, 25 to
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: 30 range. So it's a little bit different, but you,
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: you aren't really seeing like, there's so many people that
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: want the guys in the mid range too. Right. When
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: you get to like this Parker Washington, T Higgins, uh,
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: Like I said, I think Michael Wilson's going to steam some.
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: We'll talk about that because he fits it. If people
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: go to the Buffalo Bills game, depending on who's in,
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: they'll go there. I think the Pittsburgh guys are going
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: to get some steam. Bernard or Metcalf could get a
• 45:20
  Speaker 2: little bit of love there too. So there's that, but
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: no one's paying up at tight end to the point
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: earlier outside of maybe McBride, but that's because McBride's going
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: to fit those stacks. So the conditional ownership will lead
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: to show that he's going to be in the game
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: stacks or with percent or run back to the DAC
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: stacks or whatever it might be. And then nobody really
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: paying up a D outside of the Steelers. and you've
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: got Bengals. That's a slice and dice for Chase Brown.
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: You got Chase Brown on the slate going against the
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: Titans who are down Tate. The only guy that could
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: even move the damn ball for them. Besides you could
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: say what you want about Pollard last week. I'm just
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: noting it. And there's more to that later as well,
• 45:53
  Speaker 2: but you got the Jags versus the Colts. And I
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: don't know what's going, I mean, we'll see, but the
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: job of the Taylor trade news is going crazy right now.
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: And so like how, how much is this guy going to,
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: I don't know. We'll see like how much do they
• 46:04
  Speaker 2: really want to put them out there if they're trying
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: to trade them? Not sure speculation, but I'm just saying
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: the Jags D is already crazy. Awesome. And at home
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: and 3,700 bucks, you can get to them here and
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: everyone's playing tootin'. No one's playing the Jags deep. Patriots
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: on the road and I get it, but Malik Washington
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: gives the ball up. It's definitely an option and opportunity there.
• 46:22
  Speaker 2: And people are playing Romandre, but nobody wants the Patriots D.
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: So it is crazy of like, you can see that's
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: when somebody said like, how do you know what's going
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: on on the slate? We can see it all, but it's,
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: it doesn't blend at least for my brain. I think
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: yours works pretty similar when you see stuff like everybody
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: wants this, but funny enough, everybody wanted the Tennessee defense
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: last week. Spears gets ruled out. It's only like a
• 46:42
  Speaker 2: one point bump. It's not like crazy, but the data
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: at the end was saying like, man, maybe it's a
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: good idea to get Pollard in there now, even though
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: there's all these other running backs, but everybody wanted Tennessee.
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: Nobody wanted Pollard except on FanDuel. And then on this week,
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: everybody wants these running backs, but no one wants the defenses.
• 46:59
  Speaker 2: And it's not core. Like, again, we talk about this
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: all the time, the myth that it's broken up and
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: you don't need it. I'm just saying what, what turned
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: the ball over and turned it around where Pollard could
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: score that quickly twice. well, the defense got to stop,
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: turn it over. And then he got right back in
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: the box. So it's like, sometimes it does work out
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: in your favor. It's just always funny to me to
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: see when the stuff in the story doesn't really line up.
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: You did a great job last week of seeing it
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: in that Green Bay Detroit game. You're like, everybody wants
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: this game, but nobody wants the pieces that are actually
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: going to speed it up and make it get to
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: the level of the ceiling that we'd be looking for, right?
• 47:30
  Speaker 2: It wasn't really being stacked like that. It was being
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: stacked in a way that was very much not quite
• 47:36
  Speaker 2: for the under, but I guess it was leaning to like, okay,
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: rack up your safe PPR points and hope to get scores.
• 47:42
  Speaker 2: But you know, people that played it for the all
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: out crush, it was like, that was how they played
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: it in the way that you played it. So I
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: think that's something to think about again for this week.
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: Anything else you want to add there? And we can
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: then talk a little bit more about just how we're
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: going to leverage this up.
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it might be, it might be Pickens this week.
• 47:58
  Speaker 3: He might be, he might be this week's Jameson Williams.
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: We'll see.
• 48:01
  Speaker 3: But Uh, it's also possible that he's going to be
• 48:04
  Speaker 3: more popular to begin with than what Jameson Williams was
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: last week.
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: But, but yeah, I think that's a good point.
• 48:09
  Speaker 3: Um, yeah, as far as how to leverage it, it's
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: hard because like the, the very first thought that I
• 48:18
  Speaker 3: have for how do we leverage this is flip the
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: bill to pay up at running back, pay down a
• 48:22
  Speaker 3: wide receiver and do it that way. Except I kind
• 48:24
  Speaker 3: of hate that thought this week because I think the
• 48:27
  Speaker 3: wide receivers are much better plays than the expensive running backs.
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: And so, uh, That makes it difficult, and I think
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: it forces us to be a little bit more creative
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: in how we leverage this truck build.
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm curious, guys. Let us know if you're watching
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: it live right now. Throw it in the YouTube chat,
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: like how you're leveraging this slate. Some thoughts you're thinking about.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: I saw some here. You know, Kasten Reed says, is
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: golf with a hawk bringback going to be popular?
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: No.
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: So you can definitely do that on this slate. Our guy,
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: Timmy Dubs, has been talking about Bijan the whole day.
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: And Bijan, even in the high stakes stuff, what's he get,
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: 15 to 20 at most? Like, I think that's kind
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: of where he's sitting. Someone earlier said, you know, Justin Sports,
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: always here to support him. We appreciate it. He said
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: he still thinks– still think that Gibbs gets jammed a
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: lot I don't know man like I don't see how
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: and don't forget he failed people last week you're going
• 49:15
  Speaker 2: against uh uh Flores um Blitz and all this other
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: stuff maybe he could get some check downs things like
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: that but he still is almost ten thousand dollars and
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: we see that people are building balance so i think
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: if you like gibbs this week you should be able
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: to get you know 20 to 25 percent and see
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: where it lands if he gets steamed if he people
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: still can't get away from him somehow then you'll probably
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: be around field. But if people stay off of him,
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: you could be double the field at 25%. You never know.
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is one of those instances where I
• 49:45
  Speaker 3: think most of the time we talk about the conditional
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: ownership stuff as my conditional ownership is accurate in large
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: part because my baseline ownership is accurate. This is an
• 49:57
  Speaker 3: example where I think my baseline ownership this week is
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: more accurate because of how much I lean into conditional
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: ownership and how much I study conditional ownership. Because last week,
• 50:09
  Speaker 3: while Gibbs did get to a decent overall ownership number,
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: his conditional ownership outside of Green Bay Detroit game stacks
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: was pretty low.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: And so I think when.
• 50:20
  Speaker 3: People look back at, okay, well, what was his ownership
• 50:23
  Speaker 3: last time he was at a price like this? They're
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: seeing elevated ownership because he was involved in the most
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: popular game of the week. He's not involved in the
• 50:33
  Speaker 3: most popular game of this week, and I think consequently
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: we're going to see his ownership come way, way down
• 50:37
  Speaker 3: this week. I have 14% MME, 13.5% high stakes, 13%
• 50:45
  Speaker 3: single entry. There's a pretty decent chance, I think, that
• 50:48
  Speaker 3: I'm going to end up in single digits for either
• 50:50
  Speaker 3: high stakes or single entry. Probably single entry will end
• 50:53
  Speaker 3: up being the lowest and has the highest chance of
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: him ending up single digits, just because, again, I think
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: Way more people are paying for wide receivers who are
• 51:03
  Speaker 3: literally $ 2, 000.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: Cheaper than him.
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: And this is one of the only weeks this year
• 51:08
  Speaker 3: where they have a ceiling that can compete with his.
• 51:10
  Speaker 3: Most weeks, Gibbs is in a tier of his own ceiling-wise.
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: I don't think that's really the case against this Minnesota defense.
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: They do such a good job with the run blitzes,
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: not just all the blitzing. Their pressure scheme forces running
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: backs to stay in. Remember last year, like this might
• 51:26
  Speaker 3: be overstated a little bit at this point, it's been
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: talked about by so many different people, but there was
• 51:30
  Speaker 3: a game last year where Gibbs was essentially benched because
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: they preferred Montgomery's blocking, uh, to his. And, uh, now
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: Montgomery's not here. So like, I'm not saying he's going
• 51:38
  Speaker 3: to get benched. I also think his past protection has
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: been better this year, even though it still is, uh,
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: is not quite where they would like it to be,
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: but like it, the matchup as a whole just really
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: takes from the ceiling more than his floor. And, uh,
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: you combine that with just how crazy price prohibitive he
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: is at a position where there's more salary relief than
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: we've gotten at, at pretty much any slate this week
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: or this year. We're like, you know, in past slates,
• 52:04
  Speaker 3: if he was $ 9, 500, you could save two and a
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: half to.
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: $ 3, 000.
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: With the cheaper end running backs that were really viable
• 52:12
  Speaker 3: in the slate this week, you can save $ 4, 000. People
• 52:14
  Speaker 3: are going to take that. Yeah.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: I can't, I mean, that's funny. You brought that up actually.
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: Cause it's wild. I don't know if, um, Where was it, man?
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: I think it was, I don't know if this is how,
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: I mean, this got a ton of views. This is a,
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: who is it? It's like a sports writer in Detroit.
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: So I think it's like a legit beat writer, but
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: it said like Jameer Gibbs on pass blocking 15 times,
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: in his first game against Minnesota last year. He said
• 52:40
  Speaker 2: that shit was crazy. I don't remember most of it.
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: My head was rocking. I ain't going to lie, but
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: I'm up for the challenge, whatever it is, but Vackie
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: is really good at it. And he, he sometimes takes
• 52:49
  Speaker 2: it off me. So to your point of like that
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: type of setup, sometimes that is the case. And then
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: I saw another thing today that was like, Brian Flores
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: is crazy. And it was showing his blitz. Like, you know,
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: those graphs and you're, you're the data guy. It's like,
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: and say, his shit is the top, right? Talk about
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: the penthouse process. This man is in the penthouse at
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: the very top right corner for blitzes. This, he's just
• 53:08
  Speaker 2: coming at you and figure it out or try to.
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: So I think you could see, again, people will say, well,
• 53:14
  Speaker 2: that could mean checkdowns for Gibbs and that, but you
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: could see like Aminra, Laporta, those guys just mixing it
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: up over the middle. And I think some people say, oh, interesting.
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: It's a way to go then. Somebody brought up, let
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: me stack that up. Well, here's the thing. When you
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: just catch the ball and fall on it, the clock
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: keeps running. So it's like, when that's the case, it
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: doesn't always mean great for you. It just means they
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: could be moving the chains a little bit and then
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: a bunch of runs to keep them off the field
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: and back and forth. And if the other side doesn't
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: pick up, it could make it so it's not as
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: crazy as you think. You'll rack up some PPR points,
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: but you want a little bit more than that sometimes.
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: So just think about it from that perspective as well.
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: Go ahead.
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: Is it worth nerding out for a second about what
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: Flores is doing that's so unique?
• 53:51
  Speaker 2: I think the chat loves that. Yeah, do it. All right.
• 53:55
  Speaker 4: I love.
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: what I'm seeing from Flores and, and let me, let
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: me first give a lot of credit to other people.
• 54:00
  Speaker 3: Cause like, I'm not, I'm not doing this type of
• 54:02
  Speaker 3: film analysis. A lot of this is what I'm seeing from,
• 54:05
  Speaker 3: from what other people are talking about. But the coolest
• 54:07
  Speaker 3: thing that I'm seeing that he's doing is like so
• 54:11
  Speaker 3: much to me. And this was something that like, you know,
• 54:14
  Speaker 3: all my basketball coaches in the day used to talk
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: about where the, the offense, the advantage that offense has
• 54:20
  Speaker 3: almost universally is that the offense can make the defense
• 54:24
  Speaker 3: react to what the offense is doing. Flores is totally
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: flipping that Flores is making the offense react to what
• 54:30
  Speaker 3: he's doing every single play. And that's not just like, Oh,
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: he's being so aggressive that the offense has to be
• 54:37
  Speaker 3: on their heels and react. No, I mean like literally
• 54:40
  Speaker 3: the play calls, like I'll give you an example. One
• 54:42
  Speaker 3: of the things that seems like he's doing, and I
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: can't prove that he's doing this, but it sure looks
• 54:46
  Speaker 3: like he's doing it is let's say they have two
• 54:48
  Speaker 3: guys lined up to blitz. And a lot of the time,
• 54:51
  Speaker 3: what the, what the past protection will be is like,
• 54:54
  Speaker 3: The running back will take one of the guys who
• 54:56
  Speaker 3: might come blitz. The guard will take the other. And essentially,
• 55:00
  Speaker 3: the two guys start to rush. And whoever realizes, oh,
• 55:04
  Speaker 3: the guard is blocking me, will abandon the rush and
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: drop back into the coverage. And then the guy who
• 55:08
  Speaker 3: has the one-on-one with the running back will continue to go.
• 55:11
  Speaker 3: And so the guard ends up blocking nobody. The running
• 55:13
  Speaker 3: back has to block the blitzer.
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: It's just brilliant.
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: And so they're getting all these extravagant pressures from only
• 55:21
  Speaker 3: sending five. Sometimes they're sending four, but it's like you,
• 55:24
  Speaker 3: as an offense, you can't know which four are coming.
• 55:27
  Speaker 3: And sometimes it's overloaded. It's just so, so advanced. And
• 55:31
  Speaker 3: then also he's like, he's brilliant in the way the
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: floor is here is brilliant in the way, like he
• 55:36
  Speaker 3: predicts how each offense individually. So like, he's not, he's
• 55:41
  Speaker 3: not running the same place over and over, but he's
• 55:44
  Speaker 3: dropping those cover guys and, into like the exact areas
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: of the field where he thinks that that specific offense
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: is going to attack.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: It's really, really cool.
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: And, uh, there's also some pretty cool data on like
• 55:57
  Speaker 3: how much golf for, uh, specifically has struggled with this
• 56:00
  Speaker 3: against him in their last few meetings. And then the
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: last really cool thing that he's doing, um, which I
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: didn't even learn until this week. Uh, and, and I believe, um,
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: I believe one of the Philly beat writers was talking
• 56:13
  Speaker 3: about how like, this is a change that they made
• 56:15
  Speaker 3: partially because of the way Jalen Hurts picked them apart
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: last week, but sometimes late last season, it seemed like
• 56:21
  Speaker 3: they started to allow Harrison Smith to call audibles like
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: right before the play. And so one thing you'll notice,
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: like especially against some of the smarter, the veteran quarterbacks
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: like Goff, is one advantage that they have had in
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: the past against Brian Flores' defenses is if they are
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: better than most at diagnosing what's coming and where the
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: blitz is coming from, what type of coverage they're in
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: to mask the blitz, so on and so forth, right
• 56:44
  Speaker 3: before the snap, he can change the play. Well, what
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: Harrison Smith is doing is right before the snap, he's
• 56:49
  Speaker 3: changing the play for Minnesota. And now the offense doesn't
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: even have a chance to react with their own audibles
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: ahead of the snap. Like it's just so ahead of
• 56:57
  Speaker 3: their time. And, and I'm sure that in the next two,
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: three years, we're going to see way more defenses playing
• 57:03
  Speaker 3: this way. But I think even if they try to
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: recreate it, it's like, it's not just that Flores has
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: come up with this totally new way of doing it,
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: but he's also executing it at a really high level.
• 57:14
  Speaker 3: And his players have now been playing this crazy, aggressive,
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: really complex style for long enough that they're now comfortable
• 57:21
  Speaker 3: in it where if you just tried to start playing
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: this type of defense on a different team, it's like
• 57:27
  Speaker 3: they'd all be going, well, what am I supposed to do?
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: How are we supposed to handle all this stuff at once?
• 57:30
  Speaker 3: They're actually comfortable with it. It's just incredibly cool from
• 57:34
  Speaker 3: a football perspective. And from a DFS perspective, it means
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: I kind of want no part of anyone that's going
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: up against them. And it also makes it harder to
• 57:42
  Speaker 3: play Vikings because even in a game like this, I
• 57:44
  Speaker 3: think offensively, like they're not trying to say, oh, we're
• 57:48
  Speaker 3: playing Detroit. We need to really keep up and play
• 57:50
  Speaker 3: a super aggressive style of offense. I think they still
• 57:52
  Speaker 3: are going to trust their defense.
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And Berger said, Vikes D for all the money
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: you sold them. Forgot how many, you know, we do
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: this Leverage Lane show for both NFL DFS and PGA DFS.
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: So year round, how many Minnesota people that there are
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: that follow along? There's so many. Of course, they want
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: some Vikings talk here, man. You got it. All right.
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: You know, some wild ones coming up just on this.
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: We'll talk more ways in a second guys, how to
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: leverage it, but said, you know, Herbert getting his best
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: lineman back along with lad Trey QJ and Kohler coming
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: off the buy with a Puka bring back. I think
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: Puka very interesting. Probably talk more about him later. And then,
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: you know, talking about a lot of people were talking
• 58:28
  Speaker 2: about the Drake may stuff, right? Like assuming, are we
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: assuming AJ Brown is out? Obviously there's a lot of
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: talk around the knee and the off season, the trade
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: and how'd they take this guy? If this is still
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: what's happening. I mean, that's, football and part of it.
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: But a lot of people are talking about, you know,
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: the over stacking with the Patriots may Stevenson receivers. And
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: then Derek Henry was mentioned, right. If you want a
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: piece of that Baltimore Buffalo game, but what are, what
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: are some of the ways you're seeing to leverage this
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: and attack with, because some interesting things, I guess one
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: thing that just stood out for me that somebody mentioned
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: it now about Jake Ferguson was, was mentioned as a,
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: you know, definitely a way to get different in that game.
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I think the other thing that's interesting is
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: like a time of tight ends against Arizona thing. Definitely.
• 59:09
  Speaker 1: But.
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: Ceiling all these other things but the other the one
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: for me actually is algiers stinks like bad and who
• 59:17
  Speaker 2: else is going to do anything and love is full-on
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: go this cowboys rush d is useless that is a
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: wicked flip of the build when you've got people on
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: giovante how can you play it differently if people are
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: you know moving now to michael wilson and born and
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: whatever else and if you can't get to mcbride or
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: something and you want to get a piece in that
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: game to get different nobody. And if it's a mid
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: tier build, I get it, but it's a unique, there's
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: so many running backs on this slate that you could
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: go to that nobody's going to, but at least if
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: you're going to stay in that game, I think looking
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: for somebody like him is a way to get different.
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: I liked your pickings call as well. Like if he's
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: this week's Jamison Williams, most certainly could be a thing.
• 59:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, man, I have like negative interest in Ferguson. It's
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: not to the point where like Spanford is playing ahead
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: of Ferguson, but Spanford's taking a lot. And Ferguson's like, he's,
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 3: he's just running cardio out there right now. I mean, it's, it's,
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 3: it's crazy how, uh, how little he's being used. You
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 3: still could run well in the sense of like, you know,
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 3: earlier this season, um, there was a week where, uh,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 3: you know, Dallas was very popular and then Ferguson caught
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 3: two touchdowns and he might've had like three receptions or
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: four reception in the game, but two of them happened
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 3: to be touchdowns. You could run really well that way,
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 3: but like the days where you could run into, you know,
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 3: an eight reception, 80 yard, two touchdown game. Like they
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 3: seem totally gone. And so, uh, I have no interest
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 3: in Ferguson there.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 3: 11 games.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: Um, a lot of tight ends on the slate as well.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: So again, obviously it fits your stacks. And so I
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 2: get it from that perspective, but, um, just going down
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 2: the board, I think our projection actually on span forward
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: right now is close to Ferguson, but I mean, Ferguson
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: is way down our board, at least when you're looking
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 2: at it, there's just so many other ways that you
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: can go in stacks that you can fit. So I
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: think some of the, um, I think sometimes people need
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: to also think about that as like, if that's your feeling,
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: probably can get some really good profits in because that,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 2: the numbers that you're seeing on screen of like the
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 2: ownership value here, the ownership value is baked in. Sure.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: But he doesn't even fit the screen. I have a
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: pretty big monitor over here and he's not even on
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: it for tight end. So it's like that. Tell me
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: for DFS, I don't know if he's going to be
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: the piece. Could be stack them accordingly, make it at
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: least make sense if it happens, because if it's two
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: touchdowns for him, that's already two for Dak. And then
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: whatever else you want to put in with it and
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: go there. And most likely, at least who knows what
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: trick plays they run. But I guess my point being
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: can't see him running an end around or anything like that.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: So if you're doing that, though, whatever's baked into the
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: low ownership could be baked into the would be most
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: likely baked into the props. So I think you'd look
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: at that and see what you can find out there.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: But span forward has definitely been on the field quite
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: a bit now.
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 3: All right, so in terms of how to leverage the
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: chalk build, the first thing that comes to my mind
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: that I actually think is, okay, this is a real
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: viable way to attack this slate, is although the running
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 3: backs that people are going to, these 5K, low 6K
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 3: running backs, although they seem to all have really good floors,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: I'm not super afraid of any of their ceilings. So
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 3: I think the first option that we have at leveraging
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 3: the chalk build is like, what if I just find
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 3: running backs who... separate from those guys? What if, what
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 3: if they all get 15, which is fine. It's a,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 3: you know, it's, it's close to like literally the most
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 3: expected outcome for those players. But I find somebody who
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 3: gets 25, I find somebody who gets 30. And I
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 3: do think there are multiple options in the same price range.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 3: Jalen Warren, Tony Pollard, Brees Hall, uh, Ashton Gentee. Like
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 3: I think that's probably the first way that I can
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 3: see of, of really leveraging the chalk build and just
• 1:02:52
  Speaker 3: trying to separate a little bit with the same price
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 3: range of running back. Yeah.
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 2: What, what has Bucky done to hurt anybody really ever?
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: He just, I mean, just almost won me the Millie
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: last week. So I've obviously got a bias here, but
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 2: he's 6,400. He's getting some ownership. I know he falls
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 2: into like the secondary grouping for sure, but still, I mean, we,
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: we saw the week with a Hubbard and the Carolina
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: defense going up against a popular Bijon that week. And
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: so flipping the build in that sense, like he fits
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: up there. I like the one that you mentioned, like
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 2: Jalen Warren, Nobody wants him at 6,600. You just told
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 2: me Tony Pollard was dog shit last week and he
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: stomped all over Cleveland. I know Dowdle and all these
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: different things. I'm getting it, but why? I mean, I
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 2: can't imagine a world where the Steelers decide to take
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: Warren off the field as much. I think Dowdle is
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 2: still interesting. Maybe that's more profiting and things like that too.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 2: But my point being like Warren has explosiveness. And when
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 2: you talked about that ceiling factor, when I'm just doing
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: this as an exercise, but you sort by ceiling, like,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: um okay tootin brown and giovante are the ones that
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: really stand out as like who people are actually on
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: in a lot of lineups already but like gibbs robinson
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: cook kenneth walker bucky derrick henry kyron taylor steve um
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: stevenson people are on but pollard warren genti you mentioned
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: all those guys there's there's a ton of other guys
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: that you can go to there and get different let
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: me ask you.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 3: This if you were real quick uh you reminded me
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 3: of something i wanted to ask you uh I was watching,
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 3: I was watching you and Pat yesterday and, and Pat
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 3: had a line of like asking if I had talked
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 3: to you off of Pollard. Did I say something about
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: Pollard last week that was like really, really negative that
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 3: I'm forgetting?
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: No, and when I was saying you, I'm talking to
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: the general public. I don't remember anything about that. Sometimes
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: we just go back and forth on it, but I
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: think it was, honestly, I wasn't on the show with
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: Pat last week, remember?
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 2: Right, I had a doctor's appointment, so you were on
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: the show with him, and that's, I think, what he's
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: talking about. Like, you talked to him. Maybe you just said, like,
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: obviously not in Well, yeah.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: I want to ask him that, too, because I don't
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: recall saying something really negative about Pollard. And Pollard was
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: the highest GPP score running back on the slate for
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 3: me by Locke.
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: So I don't know. Maybe that changed after Spears was
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: ruled out.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: But I don't think I said something really negative.
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: I will say from the data perspective and you run
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: literally like analytics dot com. I mean, it's going to
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: be analytics and data, but I know it was only
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: like a point to two point bump. Like we were
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: already kind of expecting it and blah, blah, blah. But
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: until you put it in, you don't see the effect
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: on the lineups. And I could tell you for sure
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: from my stuff, like late, even over on the stone
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: at Ship It Nation, like everyone's like, well, he was
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: no good on the stone. Did you check Sunday morning
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: after the inactives? That's when you should be building your lineups.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: And he doubled. for his optimal rates. And that's based on, again,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: how often is he showing up in the optimal lineup?
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: But it's like, again, it's not just him, but it's like,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: he did get up to almost 10 or 11% after
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: he was at like four or five. He just, those
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: two points sometimes matter. And then what does he do
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 2: for the rest of your build? So that's where it
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: came from.
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 3: And importantly, like the reason why that that's the case
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 3: is because, you know, one point of projection, like where
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: is that point coming from? It's, it's not, it's not
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 3: just telling you that, okay, he's going to get one
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: point more than he otherwise would.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: Have in every outcome.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 3: It's that in some outcomes, he just got you 10
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 3: to 15 extra DraftKings points through receiving work that he
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 3: otherwise never would have had with Spears. Or he stayed
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 3: in for an extra drive when they were trailing late
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 3: because they didn't have Spears to get some work to.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 3: So yeah, it's more meaningful than what that small.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: Projection boost can sometimes show.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 3: So maybe that's why He ended up a higher GPP score,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 3: but I think he was a pretty good GPP score
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 3: all week. So if I did say something negative about
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 3: him to Pat, I guess.
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: I'll have to apologize for that.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: He's holding it against you personally.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: My data was telling me something other than I maybe
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: said to Pat. I don't know.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: No, it's the Michael Jordan. I took that personally. He's
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: holding it against you, Flickle. So sorry, man. You're taking
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 2: the brunt of that one. Just like your horrible Brock
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: Bowers call last week. You suck. No, I'm just kidding. Obviously,
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: we were both very interested in that. So I think
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 2: that's part of it. I mean, obviously, people like when
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: we talk the game stacks here. So that's, to me,
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 2: taking it back to our original point about the Deshaun
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: Watson stuff last week. That's when this conversation came up,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: by the way. It was when we were saying, well,
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: do you want to go over to Cleveland, Tennessee? And then,
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: funny enough, it ends up being right where you kind
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: of should have been or could have been or would
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 2: have made sense with Pollard. It would have forced you
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: to then get some of those stacks. And then once
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: you have a lineup like that, you can kind of
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: fit– everything around it i think we've had enough conversation
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: around dac and burrow and obviously there's pieces within those
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: games that you can get different with one last thought
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 2: i want to just leave with that before we move
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: on to some of these other game stacks.
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 4: Io manor wandell robinson gunner helm like do you sit
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 4: on like if you are stacking that i know how
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 4: high you are on the run back and putting one
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 4: in there and i also think that goes to like This,
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 4: by the way, I'm going to two places here, but
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 4: when people are saying I'm going.
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 2: To run naked this and not stack this week and
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: just play the best plays and all of that seems
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: like a horrible idea to me personally, but we'll, we'll
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 2: see how it all shakes out. But that's, that's not
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: what I'll be doing. I'm going to lean in to
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 2: the stacks because even in the popular quarterbacks, people aren't
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 2: going with triples. And in some cases they're surprisingly not
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: even going with doubles, right? There's scares. There's scared money
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: in the, in the deck game of saying, well, I'll
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: go to lamb instead of Javante, but I'm not adding
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: pickings or whatever else in the other game. Well, I
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 2: can fit chase Brown and Higgins, but I can't get
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: to Jamar chase. Well, might want to think about that
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: because Jamar chase is the guy that could really smash
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 2: there and you can find the thousand dollars that exists. So, Um,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: just real quick on the Titans run backs. How are
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: you thinking about is Pollard the guy that he needs
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: to have another good game to make that work? Or
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: how are you thinking about some of the ways to
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 2: go about that? If you were building for the borough stacks.
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 3: Man, I, I think I'd want Pollard and I think
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 3: I would want to avoid the same thing everyone else
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 3: is doing in that, like the conditional ownership within borough
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 3: stacks for both Wandale and Iowa manner is going to
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 3: be really high. And so like, I would either want
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 3: a different cheap receiver. Like maybe it's DK who gets
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 3: a deep ball instead. Maybe, maybe they try and showcase
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 3: Calvin Ridley before they try to ship him off. And so,
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 3: you know, maybe I'd go that route. I'd probably just
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 3: go Pollard. You could even potentially like try to save
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 3: a ton of money with gunner helm. That's disgusting to
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 3: me though. So I think it would just be Pollard
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 3: and try to do it that way, but I would
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 3: definitely go with both Higgins and chase. Yeah.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: Chimera DK, like they talked about as well. Yeah. There's,
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: that's the thing. There's a lot of different ways that
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: you could go. If we just look at like some
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: of the wide receiver stuff though, we, we have the
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: negative leverage. I know you've got the GPP scores. I
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: cannot imagine a world where IO manner or Wanda Robinson
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: are looking good on your stuff from a GPP score perspective.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 3: If I sort the GPP scores from the bottom, Io
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: Manor and Wanda Robinson are second and third worst. Okay.
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 2: I thought you were going to say something else. Yeah,
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: like they're definitely popping for value, but yeah, that's kind
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: of what I was expecting to hear. So we're still...
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 2: That game stack, it's like... no matter how you set
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: it up and people are like, I'm going to go
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 2: to Isle Manor instead of Wandale or whatever, like you're,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 2: you're fitting into a similar build. And then if you're
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: adding all those mid range, uh, running backs, et cetera,
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 2: it is a really good lineup on paper. It will
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 2: project well, you'll be able to make a case for
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 2: whatever you want to make a case for. But I
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 2: think that, um, there's different ways to go about the build.
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 3: So.
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about these other game stacks. You mentioned earlier,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 2: and I hinted at it as well in the grand
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: scheme overview of it, but there's a lot of these totals.
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: First off, the Buffalo-Baltimore game, and then at the big
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: boy total that just people can't figure out how to
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: stack it, or if they do, we know they're kind
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 2: of going to Lamar with maybe one or two, again,
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: another one. How many people are playing Lamar, Zay, Lane
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: and Andrews and something different versus how many people are saying, okay,
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: I can get Zay in there or I could go
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 2: with Zay and Lane or I can go with Zay
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: and Andrews. Like I see that being the side where
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: people would end up on, but talk about that game.
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: And then tell me where you want to go next
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 2: based on the, you know, that run of 46 point
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: ish totals.
• 1:11:06
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's actually a really good segue to
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 3: talk about Baltimore-Buffalo because I also wanted to add some
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 3: thoughts to that comment that you brought up on screen
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 3: where Jason was talking about using a naked quarterback lineup
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: as a lever that he was going to pull for
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: the slate. So let's start here because we've talked about
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 3: this before, but.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: I want to bring it back.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 3: Imagine an all-knowing fantasy god Chrome extension. that you could
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: install on your laptop. And as you're building your lineup,
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 3: every time you click a player, there's a bar that adjusts,
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: and that bar is your top 1% outcome likelihood. And
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: so you start with a blank screen, you haven't built anything,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 3: and you've got a 1% chance for a top 1% outcome.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 3: And now you click somebody, and it adjusts a little bit.
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 3: Maybe it really likes Lamar Jackson this week, and so
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 3: it goes to 1.1%. every time you click somebody, it's
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 3: going to adjust and it's going to tell you like
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 3: you're real, you're true probability of a top one person outcome. Not,
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 3: not what the Sims are telling you what a like
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 3: perfect all knowing tool is telling you. You want to
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 3: maximize that true top one person outcome, true top one
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 3: percent outcome probability and a choice like that, going naked
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 3: or saying, you know what? I really like, Lamar Jackson here,
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 3: I really like, say, Flowers, but I don't like anything else.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to skinny stack.
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 3: That type of decision, even if it really likes those players,
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 3: it's going to bring that bar down.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: It's going to take you below 1%.
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 3: You're now helping everybody else have a better chance at
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 3: a top 1% outcome because you're doing something that just
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 3: makes it a lot harder for you. It doesn't mean
• 1:12:48
  Speaker 3: that doing so can't lead to a really good outcome.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: If you go from 1% to.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 3: 1.5% as soon as you choose Lamar and Zay, and
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 3: then you drop down to 0.8% because you didn't include
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 3: any more correlation in that afterwards, it's like you still
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 3: have a 0.8% chance at a top 1% outcome. It's
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 3: still going to happen sometimes. And someone who's building this
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 3: week in a similar manner or with a naked quarterback,
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 3: you're going to see in some contest somebody with a
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 3: lineup like that that did really well or took down
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 3: the whole thing.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: Doesn't mean you should have done it. Doesn't even mean
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: they should have done it.
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 3: Unless they have some like perfect premonition about who's going
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 3: to do exactly what and get those ceiling outcomes. You're
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 3: just making things harder on yourself that way. And so
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 3: when I think about this Baltimore Buffalo game, I don't
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 3: really know how to approach it because I do think
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 3: say flowers is a tremendous play. I do think both
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 3: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in a vacuum are tremendous plays.
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 3: It's just, how do I build an actually good lineup
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 3: with them?
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: That's well correlated. And I don't know the answer to that.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 3: I do think like the best, The best answer is
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 3: probably Lamar Lane Zay. But I also think it might
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 3: be a week where we can do some fun stuff
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: where it's Josh Allen single stacked, and then two Baltimore
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 3: guys is the bring back, and you just hope that
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 3: you get the multi-rushing touchdown game from Josh Allen. The
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 3: problem there is even if I make that decision, I
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 3: still don't have any clue which Buffalo guy I should.
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: Be using with him.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: So for me on those, especially with a good quarterback,
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: I'm fine with a skinny and like a run back,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: but it's still like, I'm probably still trying to, if
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 2: I land on the double and then the double also
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: eats away at a chalk receiver that instead of just
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: plugging in the one-off, I'm playing the guy that fits
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: the stack. I prefer just to live and die by
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: the double stack there, because it's like, I, if I
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: really want to get this all the way there and
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: people say, you know, not to, or whatever, that's more
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: what I told you at the start of the season
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 2: where I adjusted my game. I had a better week
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: one through we'll say one through five, six was horrible.
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 2: One through five was much better than it's ever been.
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 2: And then seven, of course I always went in week seven.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: So that's what happened in week seven. But the one
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 2: through five was like, okay, I'm not going to try
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: and figure this out when there's 20 value plays right there.
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 2: As much as it does make my ticker go down
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 2: a little bit, but remember, I'm working with a pretty
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 2: good ticker over here, the rest of the build. So
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: it's like, if I make that one decision, I know
• 1:15:13
  Speaker 2: if I can make that or not. And I know
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: what I'm accepting by doing it. That's the important part
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: of DFS and understanding the game and knowing how to,
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: you know, what the move means for the rest of
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 2: your stuff. That's why to your point on this, like
• 1:15:24
  Speaker 2: I said, why I wouldn't be doing this is because
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 2: you're just trying to pick what you're trying to make
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: way too many things happen. It's like, that's not going
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 2: to be the case. One thing I have to also
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 2: call out, again, not even against somebody, just in general,
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: I talk about this so much. And I'm always trying
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: to give a little motivation too, Alex. You're a reader.
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 2: You follow self-development. We get along very good on this stuff.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: When someone says a team, it says Bengals are very
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: strong against the run, even if that's true, and I
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: don't know that it fully is. I remember some certain
• 1:15:53
  Speaker 2: games like Warren and guys like that, but it's It's
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: have been very strong in a case of if it's
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 2: even true in an argument like this, it actually has
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 2: no bearing on today's game. Oh, this guy eats against
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: this team. And then somebody else smashes them. Oh, this
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 2: wide receiver cornerback matchup. And then that guy slips or,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: or they don't actually shadow. And you're like, Oh, that's interesting.
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: He didn't shadow. Well, now you can't make no money
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 2: on it. It already happened. The event's over. So you,
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 2: you lost the opportunity and everything is baked in from
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 2: that perspective. And the motivation I talk about is sometimes
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 2: people say, Oh, I have to do this today. Oh shit.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: I have to wake up and do that podcast at
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: eight 30, where I talk about sports. Like everybody in
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 2: the world would probably love to do. No, I get to,
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 2: I get to wake up and do that. That's how
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 2: you got to tie. I have to go pick up
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 2: the kids. Oh man, this is killing me. You have
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 2: to go. No, you, you, You get to, some people
• 1:16:42
  Speaker 2: would love, some people can't have kids and would want
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 2: to go be able to pick up their kids. Some
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 2: people would, you know, all different factors. My point being
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 2: all things you're talking about as obvious is and must be,
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 2: or they're always this way, always and only can get
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: you into a lot of trouble in DFS because it's
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 2: not true, right? Anything can happen. Shout out to my guy,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 2: Kevin Garnett, anything is possible. And that's the same in DFS.
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: So we got to think about that. We're not cutting
• 1:17:03
  Speaker 2: and pasting productions. We're not saying it's going to be
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: the same result. We're talking about builds and, and ways
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 2: to leverage and ways to think about putting yourself in
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 2: the position. So if it falls that way, because it
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 2: doesn't always go that way, it sometimes does. So that's
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 2: the thing, you know, you got to think about it
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: from that perspective. Go ahead.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 3: I also like, you know, looking at, looking at matchups
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 3: at a little bit more of a granular level and
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 3: kind of understanding why a team is, you know, or
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 3: has been as good as they've been in a, in
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 3: a certain regard. And so for example, like with Cincinnati,
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 3: they're number one in stuffed rate. on run plays, they're
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 3: 26th in open field yards per attempt.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: What this says to me.
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 3: Is Pollard has a very wide range of outcomes in
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 3: his rushing this week where he might just get stuffed
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 3: over and over and over again, especially because Cincinnati probably
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 3: isn't going to be respecting the pass in any way.
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 3: It might be Josh Jacobs' efficiency-esque type performance from Pollard.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 3: It also might be a case where most of the
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 3: time he's getting stuffed or he's getting very little, but Oh,
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 3: he happened to have two 30-yard touchdowns, or one 30-yard
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 3: touchdown and a 60-yard touchdown.
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: And guess what?
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 3: Those two runs just made him a slate breaker again.
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 3: And so I think the range of outcomes is pretty
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 3: wide for him. And if he was 20%, 30% owned,
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 3: something like that, then all right, I have no interest
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 3: whatsoever in that type of range of outcomes for him.
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 3: But if he's going to be really contrarian, and certainly
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 3: if he's going to be like the most contrarian way
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 3: to play a Cincinnati stack where those explosive runs are
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 3: are also going to really, really help that Cincinnati stack,
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 3: then it becomes viable.
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: And so I'm actually.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 3: With this commenter in the sense that I'm really not
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 3: that interested in Pollard this week. But if I were
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 3: playing a Cincinnati stack, Yes.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: That's when you do it.
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 2: He's not 20% owned. You nailed it on the head
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 2: on that last part when you said it. The people, again,
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: that are focused on the picks and the plays are
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 2: talking about chasing and going back to him and all
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 2: of that. Nobody wants Tony Pollard this week. He's probably
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 2: going to be 10%. Nobody's playing this guy. What we're
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: saying is you know that people are playing Joe Burrow
• 1:19:08
  Speaker 2: and Chase Brown and Jamar Chase and Tee Higgins, and
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 2: then they're plugging in I am manner or Robinson or
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: whatever else it is. You can go to a Ridley.
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 2: If he, I mean, assuming he plays, I think he's
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 2: cute tag, but he's likely to play. You got him.
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: You can go to helm at tight end. Like he said,
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 2: what we're saying is, and that's what the original question
• 1:19:24
  Speaker 2: was for Alex is in a Cincinnati stack. What's the
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: way you're thinking about using a run back that would
• 1:19:31
  Speaker 2: speed up the game and allow it to get to where, okay,
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: now we got a game. It's not chase. You're building
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: that lineup for that outcome. When it doesn't happen, it
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 2: goes in the garbage with the rest of them. You're
• 1:19:41
  Speaker 2: only got, if you're, even if you win on Sunday,
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: it's likely that it was one lineup that came through
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: for you. So even somebody out there with 150, 149,
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 2: go to the pasture to die. The one lineup shows
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 2: up at the top and that's how it works out.
• 1:19:54
  Speaker 2: So just, we're talking about building accordingly. There's not, I
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: don't care about, Tony Pollard, the pick or the play.
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: It's if I was building a Bengals stack and thinking
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: of a way that could help it get there and
• 1:20:03
  Speaker 2: get to a ceiling, that's what you'd be thinking about.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: And then I wouldn't care about the matchup. I would
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 2: care about the one time that the game goes this,
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 2: this way. Same reason. when people are posting all those
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 2: things out there right now, like we, we sim this
• 1:20:16
  Speaker 2: late 10,000 times, this is what happened, blah, blah, blah.
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 2: It's cool. Lots of people are tacking onto it and
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 2: watching it and engaging with it. It's interesting to see
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 2: it play out to actually show what a simulation actually
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 2: looks like, but it's, is it real?
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 3: No.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 2: Cause there's, there's 9,999 you're not seeing, and it can
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 2: be any of those as well. So people like look
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 2: at it and go, I'm betting all these props. Cause the,
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: the simulation said this, well, you got to think about
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 2: the rest of the stuff too. So, Where do you
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 2: want to go next with the Buffalo Baltimore? You said
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: to mention that you mentioned a little bit there, anything
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 2: else on that game? If not, where do you want
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 2: to go next for a game stack?
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't really have much more to add to
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: it other than that.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 3: Other than I think I agree with you that it
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 3: is one where like, I would probably say the best
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 3: route is to break the rule and, and use a
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 3: little bit less correlation than usual. But to me, that means,
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 3: all right, I'm not really going to consider it for
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 3: single entry, three entries, stuff like that. That's just something
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 3: that like, if I were, if I were MMEing this week,
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 3: you know, I'd be overweight on both and I'd play
• 1:21:14
  Speaker 3: it that way. And then I'd get all my correlation in,
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 3: in other builds. The, the two stacks that I'm most
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 3: intrigued by right now are first, uh, very interested in
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 3: some Drake May stuff. I think you can make it
• 1:21:26
  Speaker 3: really cheap. The, the issue that I have with the
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 3: Drake May stuff is like, I don't really want to
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 3: save too much money through my sex this week. Cause I,
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 3: I think as we talked a lot about like, this
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 3: is a week where I would like to be paying
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 3: up more at wide receiver and than at other positions
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 3: or especially more than at running back. But if I'm
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 3: going like Drake may Kyle Williams, pop Douglas, Caleb Douglas,
• 1:21:48
  Speaker 3: or something like that, it's like, okay, well now I
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 3: can only pay it once at a wide receiver. So
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 3: even though I really liked the spot and I liked
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 3: the thought, it's like, man, I really wish I had
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 3: that version of this stack on past slates, but it
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 3: doesn't do a ton for me this late. The, the
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 3: one that's probably the most intriguing to me right now
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 3: is actually Gino Smith stuff. You could go like Gino Smith,
• 1:22:08
  Speaker 3: Omar Cooper and Garrett Wilson, both of them have really,
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 3: really good GPP scores over at Blick Analytics. And then
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 3: use Bowers as the bring back and pay up a
• 1:22:16
  Speaker 3: tight end, try to get separation that way. So there,
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 3: at least I'm only using two of the wide receiver spots.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 3: One of them is a bit of a pay up
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 3: option at the position in Garrett Wilson. Both of them
• 1:22:27
  Speaker 3: have really, really good upside. And then of course you
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: get all the upside in the world with Brock Bowers.
• 1:22:31
  Speaker 3: So that's the one at the moment that's probably the
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 3: most intriguing to.
• 1:22:34
  Speaker 2: I like the Gino one. And the thing about the
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 2: Gino one that's interesting is that it's what you said
• 1:22:38
  Speaker 2: with the runbacks. I mentioned it earlier too. And I'm not, again,
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 2: just like I said, I don't really care about this stuff.
• 1:22:43
  Speaker 2: I just note it for how it would, how it
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 2: would make the stack go. And you know, I've been on,
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 2: Jenty was my leverage lane a couple of weeks back.
• 1:22:50
  Speaker 2: He started really strong and they didn't have a great
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: game last week. He's had a lot more by the way,
• 1:22:54
  Speaker 2: through the passing game, which is intriguing for DraftKings because
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 2: nobody's on him, but the two run stuffers on the
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 2: guys on the jets, I forget their names. I'm not like,
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 2: cause I don't follow that stuff heavily enough, but they are,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: not going to play or like one's out and one's doubtful.
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: So to me, if there was ever a spot, but
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 2: what I think he just can make the game go quick.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: So can Bowers. And if I want to be in
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: on this game, I kind of want to be in
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 2: on this game. And so back to it, like you
• 1:23:16
  Speaker 2: said with him, look, I don't know if we're getting
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: another 20 people that said about the chasing stuff. Again,
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 2: this is within a game stack. But the Omar Cooper
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 2: stuff from the week before, oh, there's no way he
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 2: can do that again. And then he did it again
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 2: the very next week. And again, you don't need that
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: out of him. It's not like his price is insanely
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 2: off the board. You could get, you know, a good
• 1:23:35
  Speaker 2: game out of him and still matter. But if Garrett
• 1:23:37
  Speaker 2: Wilson has a good game, you actually have stacking partners
• 1:23:40
  Speaker 2: on the other side. So that's what I like about this,
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 2: because you mentioned with like Gentee, Trey Tucker, Bowers, these
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: are speed up guys or well. I think Jenty and
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 2: Trey Tucker, sorry, are speed up guys. I think Bowers though,
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 2: the most interesting thing about him is if anyone's paying up,
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: we know it's for McBride. So when you put him,
• 1:23:58
  Speaker 2: you start thinking about, is it going to be Jeremiah Love?
• 1:24:01
  Speaker 2: Is it going to be Borg? Is it going to
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 2: be that I'm going to say, People were like, how
• 1:24:06
  Speaker 2: are they correlated? If you're on the guy that hurts
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 2: the payout version of McBride to crush him down, you
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 2: also want to know where those McBride points are going.
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 2: Maybe nowhere. Maybe you're on Javante and the Dallas D
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 2: in that lineup. And it fits too. I don't know.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 2: I'm just saying that's how I would think about it
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 2: from that perspective on how to leverage the field and
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 2: already have very unique options that you could land on
• 1:24:25
  Speaker 2: some of those popular plays at that point. And I
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 2: like it more because one thing that stood out to me,
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 2: just in early data here, is like Aaron Rodgers. DK
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 2: Metcalf is only 5,400. Jeremy Bernard is still only 49,
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 2: and they're still without their guys. Pittman and Wilson are gone.
• 1:24:44
  Speaker 2: So it can still work. Fryermuth, et cetera. But I
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 2: don't really love the Cleveland stuff on the other side
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 2: that much, as much as they were just in my
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 2: great lineup last week. It's harder to get to it, right?
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 2: So you'd have to pick your poison in Concepcion or Boston.
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: You just cut out. Oh, you came back.
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 2: Came back, sorry. Yeah, I was just saying it's not
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 2: as intriguing to me when I don't love the runbacks
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 2: as much as in the Geno stuff. I do like
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 2: the runbacks there. So that to me would be a
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: spot that I would go for sure. I'll let you
• 1:25:18
  Speaker 2: follow up on that, but the other spot I wanted
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 2: to talk about actually was in the afternoon. I'm not
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 2: having any faith in the Chargers side, but in getting
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 2: healthy and having guys back, I saw some baby swag
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: for Ladd McConkie posted out there. It's Leverage Lane, not
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 2: Narrative Street, by the way, but just to note it,
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 2: I do have interest in the other side. And some
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 2: of it will be with my leverage lane, but like the,
• 1:25:37
  Speaker 2: there is that Stafford stack in the afternoon. And by
• 1:25:41
  Speaker 2: the way, there's afternoon games on this slate, but they're
• 1:25:43
  Speaker 2: not the big games that everyone's looking at as it
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 2: usually is the case. And so in the afternoon, you've
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: got the Drake may stuff. You've got the Stafford stuff
• 1:25:51
  Speaker 2: and that, but you can go other places, but it
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 2: is a little bit interesting that the two cheap defenses
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 2: are some of the more popular places that people are
• 1:25:58
  Speaker 2: going in the afternoon. So a lot of people are
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: going to be sitting with a nice lineup, winning a
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: lot of money. And then being like, all right, let's
• 1:26:05
  Speaker 2: go Denver D or Chargers D against the Rams. So
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 2: is there anything from the afternoon portion of the classic
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 2: slate that you'd want to talk about there from a
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 2: stacking perspective or just any other thoughts?
• 1:26:17
  Speaker 3: No, I think as far as the Chargers stuff goes,
• 1:26:20
  Speaker 3: I actually agree with the mindset of like, hey, they're
• 1:26:23
  Speaker 3: off their bye. What if they do look a lot
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 3: better this week? But the nice thing there is I
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 3: think we can be pretty confident that most of that
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 3: would have run through lad McConkie. Like, you know, even if,
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 3: even if it's just like, okay, they look a little
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 3: bit more like what they looked like in week one,
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 3: when they were at full strength, like that was, that
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 3: was all lad before he got hurt. He was going
• 1:26:42
  Speaker 3: to have a monster game in week one. So I
• 1:26:44
  Speaker 3: would just play lad as a one-off. Uh, and, uh,
• 1:26:47
  Speaker 3: and certainly he's, he's a potential, you know, late swap
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 3: option is, uh, somebody who could be a potential separator
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 3: if you need at that point in time, or you
• 1:26:54
  Speaker 3: could go, uh, you know, a little bit safer there.
• 1:26:57
  Speaker 3: So So yeah, I think that's kind of my only
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 3: thoughts on the late games. I'm not, I'm not super
• 1:27:02
  Speaker 3: interested in much. I do think Jonah Coleman's a good
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 3: play at running back and, and that's a bit of
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 3: a segue into what my leverage line is going to be.
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Do you see what, sorry, what do you see
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: for the ownership on him right now? Where does he
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: fit in for you in some of this stuff? Like
• 1:27:17
  Speaker 2: let's use like some of the higher stakes, smaller field
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 2: doesn't really matter, but if it's the higher stakes, I
• 1:27:21
  Speaker 2: guess more of the smaller field, single entry stuff, anything
• 1:27:24
  Speaker 2: there that you're thinking about?
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I've got him around 15%. I think there's a
• 1:27:29
  Speaker 3: pretty good chance he ends up a little bit higher, but.
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 1: It's weird.
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 3: You'd think, okay, $ 4, 300 running back who's projecting well, he
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 3: could really get up there to 30%, but as we
• 1:27:43
  Speaker 3: showed earlier, you can build stuff where we had three
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 3: stud receivers in there with Joe Burrow, and we didn't
• 1:27:51
  Speaker 3: go below.
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: Mid-tier in running back, and so Like it's weird.
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 3: I almost think Jonah Coleman's ownership is going to be
• 1:27:57
  Speaker 3: held in check because people don't need the savings at
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 3: running back the way they've needed it. Most of the season,
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 3: you know, they're like, again, you know, we, we made
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 3: the price comparison differences like with, with Gibbs compared to
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 3: most slates. Like if you gave us a $ 4, 300 running
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 3: back on every slate this year, most slates that would
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 3: have been $ 2, 000 cheaper than like the pocket of running
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 3: backs that were cheapest and projecting pretty well for their price.
• 1:28:24
  Speaker 1: This week, it's 1,500.
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 3: It's even like 1,200.
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 1: 1,300, something like that.
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 3: So he's just not saving as much as what we
• 1:28:34
  Speaker 3: have seen on a lot of slates so far this year.
• 1:28:36
  Speaker 3: And that might keep him in check. But yeah, I
• 1:28:38
  Speaker 3: wouldn't be surprised with 2025 at most.
• 1:28:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's, that's what I'm thinking. I guess the other
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 2: thing too, is you've got the conditional ownership over there
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 2: and you can see it, but man, the Denver D
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 2: with Coleman stuff, that'll be another thing. No. go watch it.
• 1:29:10
  Speaker 2: I'm curious the, the chats takes and you guys can
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 2: put it in the comments as well. But he basically,
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: the reporter asked him like how it feels being the
• 1:29:17
  Speaker 2: vet and getting taken over by these young guys and
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: all this stuff. And he kind of took it a
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 2: little bit personal, but I thought it was like the
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 2: most professional way possible. He's like, did you watch the game?
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 2: And the guy's like, yes. He's like, what'd I do
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 2: in the first half? And he's like, 20-something yards. He's like,
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: how many carries?
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 3: Four.
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 2: He's like, so how's that? Five yards per carry. The
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: guy did the– the reporter did the math horribly, which
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: was hilarious. He said four-something. He's like, four-something. He's like,
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: that's quite obvious, five-something. So he did that. And then anyway,
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 2: he walked him down the path of like, you know,
• 1:29:42
  Speaker 2: how he's just a team player. He's there. You know,
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 2: the rookies are his guys. He's helping them out. He
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 2: wants to– At the end of the day, they win.
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: They want to win games. That's what they're about. And
• 1:29:50
  Speaker 2: I thought it was just really funny. You don't usually
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 2: see it go so smoothly back and forth. He wasn't aggressive,
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 2: but he had his answers plugged in. It was pretty solid.
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: So check it out if you guys haven't seen it already.
• 1:30:00
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 3: Real quick, before we go to Leverage Lane, I want
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 3: to give you a little quick quiz here. So in
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 3: the main event field projected that I have, do you
• 1:30:12
  Speaker 3: want to take a guess at the conditional ownership of
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 3: the Broncos DST in.
• 1:30:16
  Speaker 1: Jonah Coleman lineups.
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 2: Oh God. I'm always the worst at this. Like how much?
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 3: I had them at 22.6% overall. So certainly higher than
• 1:30:27
  Speaker 3: most of what the market's going to have for him.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 2: Yeah. So it's going to be what? 50 ish?
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 3: 37%. 37.
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 2: I thought it'd be a little higher, but I don't
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: know what you have him at, but I guess like
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: my obvious when people are wondering, like if they don't
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 2: know what that is and you've brought it up in
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 2: the past so people can see it, Blick Analytics is
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 2: you guys can check it out with promo code Tambo
• 1:30:46
  Speaker 2: or leverage, check it out there. But I would say, um,
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 2: like when you see the Broncos up that high, we
• 1:30:53
  Speaker 2: know it in the higher stakes, they're going to be there.
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: There could be late swaps and stuff.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 3: Sure.
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: But in, in general, you'll see that. And then also, um,
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 2: you know, he's just going to be in so many,
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: he's going to be paired so much more with them
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: than just on his own. So that's, that's kind of
• 1:31:05
  Speaker 2: the setup that people are looking at when they're trying
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: to figure it out. So that's a high one for sure. Definitely.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I think a lot of people will land
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: there to, to end their lineups.
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah. And I don't necessarily think it's like a terrible
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 3: idea to put them together, but.
• 1:31:21
  Speaker 1: If the other thing there is like.
• 1:31:22
  Speaker 3: You know, if you have them together and you're, you're
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 3: waiting to see if like you, you can be less
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 3: chalky late in the day, you're not going to have
• 1:31:33
  Speaker 3: many pivots off a $ 4, 300, $ 2, 300 running back DST pairing. So,
• 1:31:38
  Speaker 3: leaning on late swap there to be that Chucky might
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 3: not be the best option, but it's not like it's
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 3: impossible to find some options there.
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 2: So, well, that's what I said earlier. Like, that's my point.
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: If you're sitting, I get it. Like, but I said,
• 1:31:48
  Speaker 2: you better have the rest of your lineup to the
• 1:31:50
  Speaker 2: house because man, it's not horrible. It's Denver at home.
• 1:31:54
  Speaker 2: It's against Kansas city. I get it. There's tons of options.
• 1:31:56
  Speaker 2: You've got, you know, Coleman in a good spot.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 3: Sure.
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: So you're going to take it, but I don't think
• 1:32:01
  Speaker 2: you're going to be able to have a lot of
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 2: holes in the lineup to get all the way there.
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 2: And I don't think you're going to have many swaps
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 2: to get there. So, you know, I think that's, what's
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 2: pretty interesting about it because you'd, you can drop to
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 2: the chargers and go up to as high as 4,600.
• 1:32:13
  Speaker 2: You could leave money or have a built-in plan if
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 2: you want it. That's another thing you could do, but yeah,
• 1:32:19
  Speaker 2: you're going to need a lot. And I don't think
• 1:32:21
  Speaker 2: this is going to be either of our leverage lane,
• 1:32:23
  Speaker 2: but anytime you can get a running back, that's when
• 1:32:26
  Speaker 2: we talked about paying up being leverage on this slate,
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 2: he certainly fits the bill or a guy that you
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 2: could put in there. And you're going against a chalk
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 2: defense against the chalk running back. That's cheaper on the
• 1:32:36
  Speaker 2: other side. So you're naturally flipping multiple angles of what
• 1:32:39
  Speaker 2: Alex just talked about. If you're sitting, look, if someone's
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 2: sitting there at the end of the day and you've
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 2: got two guys with Coleman and um, the Denver D
• 1:32:49
  Speaker 2: or you've got Kenneth Walker on the other side. I
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 2: don't know about you guys. I would be feeling better
• 1:32:55
  Speaker 2: myself about having Kenneth Walker. I don't care what the
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 2: defense has done in the past is that the other,
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 2: anything I would still prefer that type of ceiling out
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 2: of one guy versus the other two, hoping that they
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 2: hit like, you know, their highest outcome of possible. It's just,
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 2: it doesn't seem as likely for me. I'd be happy
• 1:33:10
  Speaker 2: to be on the other side. What about you?
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 3: I do think the Chiefs call is a nice call
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 3: out by Darren.
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: In the chat.
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 2: What did Darren say? Chiefs D?
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 1:33:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Chiefs D. So yeah, more on that. I've got
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 2: a couple of different things. I'm all over the place,
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: but I've solidified what mine is going to be. Um,
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: maybe I'll throw mine out there first. Then you can
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 2: lay your story out on yours. We've teased it long
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: enough anyway, may as well wait a minute, just a
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 2: little bit longer. So if you guys like this show,
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: make sure to hit that thumbs up, make sure to
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: subscribe to the channel. We've got plenty more coming your way.
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 2: Be back 9am Eastern tomorrow with hoop title and myself
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 2: for Sunday shippers. Once we get all the extra stuff
• 1:33:47
  Speaker 2: in overnight, we'll have all the content up over at
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 2: ship at nation.com, but my leverage lane for the week
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 2: that I settled on, and it can correlate with some
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: of the other ones I was thinking about, but Um, I,
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 2: I definitely want to pay up at defense. So I
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: talked about earlier, I think only the Steelers are getting
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: played and they're not even my favorite of the pay
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: up D's. Like if you go look at all the options,
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 2: I like the Bengals to slice and dice chase Brown.
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 2: I really like chase Brown. So you can put that
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 2: one in there. I like the Jags. They can come
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: in handy. We'll talk about that, I'm sure. The Patriots
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 2: are fine. They're on the road. But if you're already
• 1:34:19
  Speaker 2: on Ramondre or you already want something like that, I
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 2: think that is fine. And then I even think it's
• 1:34:24
  Speaker 2: the Rams in the spot. I know we said the
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 2: Chargers coming off the buy all that, but they're the
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 2: opposite of the cheap D. And nobody wants any of these.
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: So to me, I'm interested in all of them. The
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 2: Chiefs just got mentioned there. So... A lot of pools
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 2: are going to have more Broncos chargers. I'll have some
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 2: of those too, but I'm thinking about a lot of
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 2: lines that will have late swap that you could move
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 2: off of those. I won't just have the Coleman Broncos
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 2: situation we just talked about. And another thing I was
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 2: going to say too, is there's nothing better than like
• 1:34:50
  Speaker 2: switching it up. If you've got a Kenneth Walker chiefs
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: D as opposed to a Coleman and a Denver D yes,
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 2: something else is going to have to change in your lineup,
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 2: but it's the point of having that. I think Puka
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 2: was another guy I was going to go with. I
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 2: get he's going to have some ownership, but when you've
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: got Lamb and Jamar Chase and all those mid-range guys
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: and all the balanced builds and all that stuff, Puka's
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: not only a great player, but also the fact that
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 2: he's going up against the Chargers defense. So you're not
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: going to see many lineups like that. So there's ways
• 1:35:19
  Speaker 2: to flip it again where you could have like a
• 1:35:21
  Speaker 2: pay-up D and Puka as opposed to a cheap D
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 2: and not Puka. So things like that, but pay-up D,
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: For me, this week is where I'm going to land.
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 2: How the rest of the lineup shakes out and what
• 1:35:30
  Speaker 2: it looks like is where I'll pick one of those options,
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 2: but it's those top five defenses there. The Chiefs up
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 2: through the Bengals. Steelers are great, too, but there are
• 1:35:40
  Speaker 2: certain lineups there. I also think one last note on
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 2: the Steelers, and I'll let you go with yours. is
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 2: Jalen Warren. We mentioned him earlier. He's another guy that
• 1:35:46
  Speaker 2: I'd considered just saying it. It's like people told me, um,
• 1:35:50
  Speaker 2: you know, Pollard stinks and he drops almost 40. I'm
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 2: not thinking Jalen Warren's going to drop 40, but I
• 1:35:55
  Speaker 2: do think it's somewhat interesting that a lot of people
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 2: are on the Steelers when they are paying up. Not
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 2: many people are on Jalen Warren this week. I get doubtful.
• 1:36:02
  Speaker 2: I said it earlier, all that stuff. I think he's
• 1:36:03
  Speaker 2: interesting also. So give us the big tease, man. I
• 1:36:06
  Speaker 2: know this is going to be interesting and a fun
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: breakdown for people, but I know what you're doing here.
• 1:36:10
  Speaker 2: So let's, let's see what you got.
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 3: By the way, Chiefs, Patriots, Jags, Bengals all have really
• 1:36:14
  Speaker 3: good GPP scores, so I like yours quite a bit.
• 1:36:17
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 3: So I talked a lot about this late about how
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 3: I agree with the field that the upside is in
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 3: the wide receivers, not the running backs this week.
• 1:36:27
  Speaker 1: So how do I kind of.
• 1:36:30
  Speaker 3: Use that to my advantage when the field is already
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 3: doing that? Well, I can try to find a way
• 1:36:35
  Speaker 3: to do that even more extremely than what the field
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 3: is doing. We have Jonah Coleman. We also have some
• 1:36:42
  Speaker 3: other really kind of gross, cheap running backs. One of
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 3: them is going to be my leverage lane. And before
• 1:36:47
  Speaker 3: I talk about who I just want to, I want
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 3: to talk a little bit more about like the, the
• 1:36:52
  Speaker 3: playing DFS aspect of this. And so one of the
• 1:36:56
  Speaker 3: ways that this works is if the running back position
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 3: as a whole doesn't have those like separating performances, think
• 1:37:03
  Speaker 3: back to a, to week two, I think, you know,
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 3: there were like multiple receivers who had 35 plus and,
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 3: and maybe there was one running back who had more
• 1:37:10
  Speaker 3: than 25. When you have a slate like that, I
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 3: could get eight points from this play, and he could
• 1:37:18
  Speaker 3: be not optimal, but I could still go get takedowns
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 3: if I have the right combination of expensive wide receivers
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 3: who go off and things of that nature. The play
• 1:37:27
  Speaker 3: is Chris Rodriguez. Now, Chris Rodriguez is not going to
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 3: project well. There's no way around that, but he did
• 1:37:36
  Speaker 3: have three, a red zone touch on three separate drives
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 3: in their last game. It was a 34 to 31 loss.
• 1:37:42
  Speaker 3: It was actually a close game. He had 11 carries,
• 1:37:44
  Speaker 3: 55 yards, looked really good running the ball against a
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 3: very good Houston defense. And he just didn't happen to score.
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 3: And it wasn't just like three random touches inside the
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 3: red zone. It was like, he was the guy in
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 3: the red zone until they weren't able to get, you know,
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 3: they weren't able to punch the ball in. Toon came
• 1:38:01
  Speaker 3: in and they threw a pass to Toon and he
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 3: got in. I think Toon had two touchdowns that game
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 3: and had a third called back. Uh, those easily could
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 3: have been Rodriguez touchdowns instead. He was getting like almost
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 3: a 50, 50 split. It was working well. I expect
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 3: a lot of the same and I expect the Jags
• 1:38:17
  Speaker 3: to really move the ball effectively against Indianapolis. It looks
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 3: like there might be rain in that game. So it
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 3: might be like a run heavy game as well, in
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 3: which case they're going to want to mix him in more.
• 1:38:26
  Speaker 3: So I think he has a very clear path to touches.
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 3: I think he has a much better path. to red
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 3: zone touched red zone touches and touchdown equity than what
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 3: people realize. And then like the huge thing is if
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 3: we're going to see ownership on Trevor Lawrence and Parker Washington,
• 1:38:41
  Speaker 3: and certainly a ton of ownership on Bayshall to, and
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 3: regardless of what the weather looks like, it's a massive
• 1:38:46
  Speaker 3: leverage piece if Rodriguez can vulture touchdowns from them. And so,
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 3: you know, it's, it's one of the things where like,
• 1:38:52
  Speaker 3: it's very comical to think about, but it's also very
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 3: easy to envision a scenario where Rodriguez scores twice. And
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 3: everyone you see on Twitter is like screaming about how, how,
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 3: you know, Vegas is rigged and they're getting Rodriguez touchdown
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 3: solely because they know everyone has touchdown bets on baseball too.
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: And instead and things of that nature.
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 3: And so I think there's a, like a very real
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 3: path to, let's say 15 to 20 drafting points for Rodriguez,
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 3: where he leverages some of the important chalk on the
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 3: slate and gives you access to combinations of stud wide
• 1:39:22
  Speaker 3: receivers with crazy good ceilings, throw Bowers in there as well.
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 3: You can get access to Bowers really easy. Like you
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 3: could go Bowers and three stud wide receivers very easily
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 3: in some builds that start like Jonah Coleman and Chris Rodriguez,
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 3: something like that. And so I really love this one.
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 3: I think it's, it's reminiscent of the quorum play that we've,
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 3: played very successfully over the last few weeks. And I
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 3: think Rodriguez can be like basically an identical play to quorum,
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 3: except even cheaper and lower ownership and more direct leverage
• 1:39:54
  Speaker 3: off of some of the biggest chalk on the slate. Yeah.
• 1:39:57
  Speaker 2: I can't, what week was the first week we talked
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 2: about that quorum play? Cause all, all really good stuff.
• 1:40:01
  Speaker 2: And I want to add to it, but what do
• 1:40:03
  Speaker 2: you remember the, what week it was when we talked
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 2: heavy about quorum?
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 3: It was, it was right after, well, so, I remember
• 1:40:13
  Speaker 3: playing Corum on the week five showdown slate against Buffalo.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 3: I think when we started to talk about him heavily
• 1:40:23
  Speaker 3: for DFS purposes was week six against Arizona, where he
• 1:40:26
  Speaker 3: finished with 942 and two for 18 and a receiving touchdown.
• 1:40:32
  Speaker 3: And he had most of that in the first half.
• 1:40:35
  Speaker 3: And then it was a much closer game than we
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 3: all expected. And so he really didn't get much run
• 1:40:39
  Speaker 3: in the second half.
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 1: Otherwise, it could have been huge.
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 3: And then last week, you finally get the game script
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 3: we were hoping for Corum. He gets 17.1 with a
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 3: 42-yard touchdown called back and a 5-yard touchdown called back.
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 3: So 17.1, that was actually him running bad somehow in
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 3: that game. That could have been a 30-pointer from him.
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 3: I remember he was 4% owned in the afternoon only slate,
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 3: and that was a three-gamer. He must have been 1%
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 3: on the main slate.
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, because everything you said for C-Rod reminded me of
• 1:41:07
  Speaker 2: it and I found it. This is the beauty of
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 2: the new free page over at Ship It Nation. This
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 2: is so cool because we wanted Leverage Lane to always
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 2: be something that there's like evergreen to it, plus what
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: we talk about. And people are like, hey, well, you
• 1:41:18
  Speaker 2: kind of just mentioned C-Rod at the end and like
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 2: I get it, but I didn't fully get it. And
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: you did a fantastic job on this episode. It was,
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: basically you go to shows on the page, it's completely free.
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 2: Go to Ship It Nation, go to latest shows, just
• 1:41:31
  Speaker 2: type in Leverage here. and then go to week seven,
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 2: or sorry, week six, Leverage Lane. This is how easy
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 2: it is. I'm just going down on our free show page.
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 2: I had to feed the damn guy right to the
• 1:41:44
  Speaker 2: very end.
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: Apologies.
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: But anyway, you go down here, and I just typed in,
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 2: because I remember what we talked about was projections versus conviction.
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 2: And your first line on C-Rod was, was factually true.
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 2: But again, I think people always take it the wrong
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 2: way or like you're trying to come up with this
• 1:41:57
  Speaker 2: magic play or whatever. It's like, not the truth. You,
• 1:41:59
  Speaker 2: you wrote, you broke it down beautifully again, but it's,
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 2: you talked about on this very episode when conviction conflicts
• 1:42:06
  Speaker 2: with projections and then how you can handle it. And
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 2: if people go here and just go into it, I
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 2: think you can just click like eight 14 and, You
• 1:42:15
  Speaker 2: can go change it. And it will take you right
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 2: up here to when conviction conflicts with projections. You can
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 2: watch Alex explain even more on the concept of what
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: he just talked about with Rodriguez. And so great job
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: on that. I like the idea. I mentioned earlier, like
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 2: Jags D, what if you do that, right? What if
• 1:42:31
  Speaker 2: that's the payoff difference of him going down? Like if
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 2: everyone has tootin' and a cheap D, you could now
• 1:42:35
  Speaker 2: have Jags and Rodriguez. I know it seems like it's nothing,
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: but it could be something. You don't need to do that.
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 2: Maybe the thousand is now T Higgins up to chase.
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 2: instead or where people can't get to that or you
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 2: get puka and not the chargers d or there's so
• 1:42:49
  Speaker 2: many ways that you can use it to your advantage
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 2: but one thing i looked up was like uh where's
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 2: it at here his his rush yards when i saw
• 1:42:55
  Speaker 2: he was still at almost like 35 rush yards for
• 1:42:58
  Speaker 2: his prop and people said what the what's that gonna
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 2: do for it i get it but i'm saying it's
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 2: like if usually in a scenario like this you see
• 1:43:04
  Speaker 2: it at nothing i think quorum is like 20 that
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 2: week or something so you're not really seeing much at all.
• 1:43:10
  Speaker 2: And then you see almost 40 for his Russian receiving
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 2: and all these other things. You're starting to think like, oh,
• 1:43:15
  Speaker 2: there actually could be something there. So I do think
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 2: it's a little bit interesting when we find things like that.
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 2: I liked your call out quite a bit. You could
• 1:43:21
  Speaker 2: pair them together. I'll pay up D and the Jags
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 2: D and Alex's D or Alex's leverage lane with Rodriguez
• 1:43:26
  Speaker 2: and then mix some other pieces around it. But anything
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 2: else you wanted to add? I thought that was just
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 2: cool that people could go back and actually see us
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 2: talk about the evergreen topic of when it doesn't project well,
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 2: but what you're getting from that instead. Yeah.
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 3: I think, uh, some interesting context there is like Jonah
• 1:43:41
  Speaker 3: Coleman's rush prop is 44 and a half and Rodriguez
• 1:43:44
  Speaker 3: is 31 and a half.
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: So like our third, our 13 rushing yards.
• 1:43:49
  Speaker 3: Now there's, there's more to it, of course, but like,
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 3: I would argue that Rodriguez might have as much or
• 1:43:53
  Speaker 3: more touch on equity than, than Coleman given the matchups.
• 1:43:57
  Speaker 3: So like our 13 rushing yards worth 20 percentage points,
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 3: like nobody's using Chris Rodriguez and maybe, maybe maybe this
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 3: show will boost him up to like one and a
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 3: half percent instead of 0.1% that he otherwise would have been,
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 3: but he's going to be insanely, insanely low on for sure.
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I like that, man. You can, you can fit
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 2: a lot in with, uh, with moves like that. So
• 1:44:16
  Speaker 2: think about that when you guys are building your lineups
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 2: out there, Alex, awesome show again, man, let the people
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 2: know what you've got going on, where they can find you.
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 2: And then we'll get out of here.
• 1:44:24
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Blick analytics.com use promo code leverage, use promo code Tambo,
• 1:44:27
  Speaker 3: whichever you desire.
• 1:44:29
  Speaker 1: And get in on all the fun.
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 3: So much roster construction stuff, conditional ownership, contest him stuff.
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 3: It's been a really cool year, and hopefully it's going
• 1:44:37
  Speaker 3: to continue that way.
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 1: For sure.
• 1:44:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, let's have another big week. Last week was awesome.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 2: For both of us, let's keep it rolling into week eight.
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 2: We saw many members and people from both discords, a
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 2: lot of big scores and ships around there. So love
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 2: to see that. Let's see it again. Let's make week
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 2: eight great, as we like to say. But for myself,
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 2: you guys can go to ShipItNation.com, bookmark that page. I
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 2: just showed you it's completely free. Go check out the
• 1:44:57
  Speaker 2: tidbit that Alex dropped back in Leverage Lane episode six.
• 1:45:01
  Speaker 2: When you find it there around the seven and a
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 2: half minute mark, And then you can find me on X,
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 2: my handle's on the screen, at ToeTag and Tambo, doing
• 1:45:06
  Speaker 2: a bunch of different value and content over there as well,
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: completely free for you guys. All right, that's gonna do
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 2: it for this one, guys. For Alex, for myself, ToeTag
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 2: and Tambo, good luck in your contest this week. Let's
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 2: ship it!