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Super Tuesdays - Why The 2026 Fundamentals Spell Disaster For Trump's GOP · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:06
  Speaker 1: It is one hundred and five days until the twenty
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: twenty six midterms. Chuck Todd and I are going to
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: talk about what we think we know? All right, Chuck,
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: shall we get into it what we think will? I
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: always caveat that because if we say what we know,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: someone will go back and harvest this video and audio
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: and be like Chris Lizard, Chuck Todd said, this bike
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: you know, and I don't want to be so I
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: always say what we think we know because the past
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: is indicative of the future until it's not anymore. And
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  Speaker 1: I should also say, welcome to Super Tuesdays. This is
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Chuck and Ice regular podcast.
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: That week on week sort of our weekend review of
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: what where the campaign was and where it's headed. Yeah,
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  Speaker 2: that's exactly, and I think like what we want to
• 0:46
  Speaker 2: do like every other day of the week, it's that.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think we want to do like twenty five
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  Speaker 1: percent where we've been in seventy five percent where we're headed,
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  Speaker 1: right basically, Yeah, that's right. Great? So, oh wait, did
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  Speaker 1: I lose you?
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  Speaker 2: Not at all?
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: No, I got you for some reason. I think I'm
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: getting old, Chuck. I couldn't hear you, all right, I'm
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: gonna let you.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: I really don't like it when people younger than me
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: claim they're getting old.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Well I'm not that much. We are basically contempt, basically
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: contemporary contemporary.
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  Speaker 2: But every time, all you're doing is reminding me I'm
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  Speaker 2: just that much closer.
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  Speaker 1: I was watching the World Cup game on Sunday and
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: Lamina Mal who is nineteen, the star of the Spanish team,
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  Speaker 1: his father is fifteen years younger than I am. I
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: was like, oh my god, that really that really stung.
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: I mean, I get like, oh, he's a.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: Kid, blah blah. His dad is thirty five years old.
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  Speaker 2: I was like, great, that's that's yeah, that's something.
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  Speaker 1: All right, So Chuck, I'll let you go. First, we
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: are we are. This is the last Super Tuesday podcast
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  Speaker 1: we will do before we are less than one hundred
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  Speaker 1: days away from the election, which is actually a real
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: you know, we're getting there.
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  Speaker 2: We're at a real marker. I mean always, you know,
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: we're you know, there's a perception that August is vacation
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  Speaker 2: month in Washington, and and actually it's just the opposite
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: in my experience. While yes, lawmakers are in town in July, right,
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  Speaker 2: politics kicks off now in August in July is the
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  Speaker 2: last month before you sort.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Of July feels slow. You're totally right. I mean, obviously
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  Speaker 1: Lindsay Graham dying, Lindsey Graham dying, Graham platine, July busier.
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  Speaker 2: But oh there's always stuff in America. Two fifty made
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: it busy. World Cup created a little bit of a
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  Speaker 2: cultural you know, sort of the way the Olympics can
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: have a field. It sort of elevates things. So there's
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: there's no doubt it hasn't been a quiet summer. But
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: it is not like the real politicking. Everything really ramps up,
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  Speaker 2: the real attack ads. We haven't seen the real attack
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  Speaker 2: ads yet. Like, Nope, you're going to start. It used
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: to be September, but now you don't want to wait.
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  Speaker 2: I mean I've talked with Brad Todd and Molly Murphy
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: over the years and they all say that that you
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: don't wait till Labor Day for your best hits anymore.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: You actually start. You need to start interesting that you
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: need to start them earlier. What's the thinking on that, Chuck, Well,
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: it's just that you know, by then you may have
• 3:18
  Speaker 2: let your opponent to find themselves took but that you
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  Speaker 2: know the or the airwaves get really crowded, are really crowded.
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  Speaker 2: And that's the other part. Yeah, that's the biggest thing,
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  Speaker 2: Brad will tell you. It's the crowded airwaves issue. And
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  Speaker 2: the minute college football starts. We've all learned this more
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: than any other sport because college football has such a
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: regional hold on viewers that if you're running for office
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  Speaker 2: in Mississippi, no matter where that game is airing, you
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  Speaker 2: just buy time during an old miss game. Yes you're
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: running for office, you know, you just you know you're
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  Speaker 2: going to be talking, and it's the best shot at
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  Speaker 2: talking to a broad cross section of voters, yep, versus
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  Speaker 2: a very narrow which most you know, most media now
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  Speaker 2: is micro targeting right.
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  Speaker 1: On, like buying a PBS news hour to reach a
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  Speaker 1: certain kind of voter.
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  Speaker 2: You know what, what was always direct mail, which was
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  Speaker 2: you're just okay, we're gonna we're going to talk to
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  Speaker 2: gun owners here and abortion right supporters here. Well, you
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  Speaker 2: do this on TV now. The only time you don't
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  Speaker 2: have that is essentially college football, true, or or the
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: baseball playoffs right, total of which we'll we're over in
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  Speaker 2: next on political ads. So the point is that we
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  Speaker 2: are we are about two weeks away from I think,
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  Speaker 2: you know, truly kickstarting this next this next level up.
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  Speaker 2: And look, I mean, you know, let's let's keep things
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  Speaker 2: simple here. The president's job arbrival ratings below forty hovering.
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  Speaker 1: It is thirty thirty eight and a half according to
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  Speaker 1: Nate Silver. I look this morning, which is slightly up, but.
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  Speaker 2: Not a lot lightly, because I was just going to
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  Speaker 2: say it's been yeah, most of the time, it's you know,
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  Speaker 2: feels like it's closer to thirty five than forty.
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  Speaker 1: Right right now he is close sort of forty than
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  Speaker 1: he is the thirty five. Most of the pointing averages.
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  Speaker 2: They're all below forty. Now, there's no more low forties.
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  Speaker 2: And then wasn't that long ago that he was still
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  Speaker 2: getting some low forties. So that is a recipe for
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  Speaker 2: losing both houses of Congress hard stop. Are there certain
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  Speaker 2: barriers that might prevent big, big swing. Sure, we've got
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  Speaker 2: the redistricting, We've got democratic primaries that could create bad candidates, right,
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  Speaker 2: very similar to what happen.
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  Speaker 1: Senate map Senate map in terms of the seats that
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  Speaker 1: they're going after.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, but the general direction here and the restarting of
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  Speaker 2: the Iran War like, there is no scenario where the
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  Speaker 2: Republicans or Donald Trump is going to be anything but
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  Speaker 2: a drag. The question is is it a fifty pound
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: bag of sand that you're dragging with you or is
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  Speaker 2: it just ten or twenty pounds that you're dragging in baggage?
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  Speaker 2: And right now it feels like you're dragging around just
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  Speaker 2: a slew of baggage. I mean, whether it's these I mean,
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: look at how the Ice story has completely erased whatever
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: advantages Collins got from the Graham Platner disaster. I mean
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  Speaker 2: just completely efisiated that. I mean Tom Holman blaming the victims,
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  Speaker 2: he blamed the day. And you're like, if it doesn't
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  Speaker 2: matter what you any of us think of it, Morley,
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  Speaker 2: this is in Collins. You're panicked about it.
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  Speaker 1: It's terrible. You've just terrible news for you. You're just
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  Speaker 1: making it worse in a state Kamala Harris won by
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  Speaker 1: seven points. I just like to always remind people of that.
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  Speaker 2: Right where gas is back over four dollars. Right. So
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  Speaker 2: it's like, you know, a lot of my Republican friends
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  Speaker 2: feel better now than they have in a long time,
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  Speaker 2: agree because they see all this action in Michigan and
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  Speaker 2: the disaster in Maine and this mess in Colorado. Right,
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  Speaker 2: like they've watched all this and you're sitting there. It
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  Speaker 2: reminds me of Democrats in twenty fourteen. Yeah, are you
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  Speaker 2: just finding a way to rationalize it?
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  Speaker 1: Right?
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  Speaker 2: And this isn't going to be so bad? They're not united,
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: and you're like, yeah, but the voters are. Okay, the
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  Speaker 2: parties aren't united, but the voters are. The voters are
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  Speaker 2: pretty pissed off. And every poll shows the same thing.
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  Speaker 2: Democrats are more motivated at bote than Republicans. Trump is
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  Speaker 2: more has a softer hold on his base than he
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  Speaker 2: had before. Right, every one of those data points points
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  Speaker 2: to big debt. The only thing preventing it is Democrats. Okay,
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  Speaker 2: reading like everything Republicans are doing is giving Democrats the
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  Speaker 2: best shot they have since six and eight of having
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  Speaker 2: a monstrous year. And the only way to prevent it
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  Speaker 2: is if Democrats pull out the six shooters and just
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  Speaker 2: start shooting eat their toes, one toe at a time, which.
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  Speaker 1: I will say they have proven their bility.
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  Speaker 2: Republicans do two. I mean, it happens. Republicans, you know,
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  Speaker 2: rode off Pennsylvania, roade off Arizona, by the way, Republicans
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  Speaker 2: are doing it again. We're going to do Arizona livestream. Yep, yep.
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  Speaker 2: The Republicans are going to nominate a guy that can't win,
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  Speaker 2: and you Andy Biggs, the other opponent, who's going to
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  Speaker 2: lose by thirty Yeah, who's won.
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  Speaker 1: A swing district? Dave Schweikert five correct, Dave schwiker even
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  Speaker 1: has won a swing district. I know. I was surprised,
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  Speaker 1: so well, let me do two things. One, we haven't
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  Speaker 1: talked and almost spent too much time in this. But
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: to your point of like Trump as anchor, I was
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: watching we haven't talked since this. I was watching that
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  Speaker 1: and I didn't expect anything different. But I was watching
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  Speaker 1: the Thursday night primetime speech and just thinking, my god, like,
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  Speaker 1: if I'm if I'm let's just use Susan Collins because
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  Speaker 1: we've been talking about her. If I'm Susan Collins, I
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: would think, Man, I really wish Trump stopped speaking after
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  Speaker 1: the first five minutes, but of course he didn't. He
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  Speaker 1: went and spoke for another twenty five talking about the
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty election in China and Venezuela. And it's like,
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  Speaker 1: if I'm a republic if I'm Mike Lawler, Brian Fitzpatrick.
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  Speaker 2: Or you know, I'm like, what is going on?
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Like, yes, Gas as of today, courney triple a five
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  Speaker 1: four dollars back to four dollars a gallon. Roan seems
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  Speaker 1: to be, you know, ninth or tenth day trade of hostilities.
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  Speaker 1: We're back where we're there. And you have a president
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: who right now three servicemen right killed three more in
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  Speaker 1: addition to the thirteen. You have a president who continues
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: to say affordability, which is by far the number one
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  Speaker 1: issue for every voter, is a made up word by Democrats,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: and is talking about an election six years ago, right, Like,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, the Post did a good The Washington Post
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: did a good story on Monday, saying Republicans on the
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  Speaker 1: campaign trail running for things like Michael Wattley in North Carolina,
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: the Senate nominee, former R and C Coachair. He did
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: like a thirty five minute speech on over the weekend,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: not one mention of the twenty twenty electioner Donald Trump.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: And you know it's like they want to be as
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  Speaker 1: far away from it as possible.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's also you know, by the way I did
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: this as my and Frankly, I had enough family members
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: asking me how come you're not more alarmed by what
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: he's doing? And I'm like, I believe in vigilance, but
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: not alarmism. That's where I am. Trump in the election.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: That is what you're referencing and Trump in the election.
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  Speaker 2: And it's this fact, like you know, look, I've participated
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: in one of these election simulations. The Atlantic wrote about it,
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: just been in one. It was sort of there's three teams,
• 10:21
  Speaker 2: the capitalists, the institutionalists, and the UH and the like
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: the anarchists of the right. I was gonna say nationalists, right,
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: very so it's not it's very like within the bounds
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: correct nationalists, institutionalists so that could be center left, right right,
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: and the capitalists, which are basically just the money people. Yeah,
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: and I do what makes me wealthier, right, And the
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: biggest lesson you take away from it is a president
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: can't do it on his own. It is like, if
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: you want it, you need like, look, it's what we
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: learned during January sixth. And in fact, it's Trump's behavior
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: in January sixth that gives me more comfort here than
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: maybe people realize, because remember, he was a he's a coward, right.
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: He didn't have the guts to go to the Capitol.
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: He wanted Mike Pence to do it. He didn't have
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: the guts to use the Justice Department to basically try
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: to create sort of legal barriers for certifying vote. That's
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: right stuff. And he didn't have the guts to actually
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: fire the attorney general. He could have forced it. He
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: could have fired the attorney general appointed Jeffer Clark. It
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: was in his power to do that. He could have
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: for you know, called for the seizing of ballot, right.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: But the thing is is that he's a He always
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: wants somebody else to do the dirty work. And ultimately
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: that's right, yep that I know that sounds odd to
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: say it that way, but I take comfort you find
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: that lazy. Yes, that he's lazy. He's too lazy to
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: be now, okay, he's too lazy to be, uh pout
• 11:52
  Speaker 2: and so. And you also have to have a lot
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: of cooperation. And what did we learn Thursday night? He
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: on this issue, he's on an island. He's on a
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: Mike Lee.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, I was gonna say there are people, there
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: are people around him, but the elected officials in the
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Republican Party are not like, hey, let's go back and
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: litigate that twenty twenty election.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: That guy Jay Clayton. I don't know him. You know,
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: I've read his resume. This guy's he he's had a
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: pretty successful career and he's just embarrassed himself by getting
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: associated with Donald Trump. Now, and you're like, how many
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: people look at that guy and say, you know, how
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: is it that you you? Basically, you're very successful, you've
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: earned your place. You probably were worthy of these jobs,
• 12:39
  Speaker 2: but you have to humiliate yourself in order to get
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: the job. And that's your legacy, brother, I mean, it's
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: did you notice what the Energy secretary said over the
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: weekend yep, and about about the twenty twenty election. He
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: tried election. I think he saw the Jay Clayton how
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: ridiculous that was. He was like, I'm not doing that.
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: I'm going to try this. Hey, I'm no election expert,
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: but it looked like to me Biden coach, which I thought.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: That's actually a smart answer. Well, we don't know to
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: see how Trump laid.
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: I was trying to say, it's an one and Trump
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: may hate that answer. It Suddenly Doug Bergham is now
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: Interior Secretary and the acting Energy Secretary. I think of
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: that there's.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Like a five that no, oh my gosh, just a
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: five percent chance of anything when it relates to Trump.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: I mean I felt that way when you were talking about,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: like what are people willing to do for ambition? I
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: mean Todd Blanch is a great example of that, right,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: I mean Todd Blinch voted for Hillary Clinton in twenty sixteen, like,
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: and his his argument is Trump needed representation and he
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: was he wasn't. No good lawyers wanted to represent him anymore.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: I wonder why, And you know, I felt like I
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: had to do it well. He also saw that his
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: career probably had run out of sort of next steps
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: on the on that side of the aisle, and there
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: was a lot of running room on this side of
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: the aisle. I mean, let's just be honest here, Like
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: he's an ambitious guy. I don't say that.
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: Put it again, I believe it's just like I think
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: you could put Lutnik in that column, right, totally an
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: occasional dem don or. Two.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: These are people who saw opportunities. You know, it's the
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: run to space, you know, like me, so true way,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Gretzky Skate's where the Puck's going that where it is? Okay?
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: So yes, one hundred and five days out, Chuck noted
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Trump is unpopular. I just want to throw I just
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: wrote down a couple more things. One we don't have
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: to talk about. One I do want to talk about
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: because our friend Ron Brownstein mentioned this. The second one,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: which is just historically right for people. Twenty of the
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: last twenty two midterm elections have seen the president's party
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: lose seats in the House, and oftentimes a large number
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: of seats. Now, the only two exceptions we've been over
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: this ninety eight two thousand and two, ninety eight Clinton
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: impeachment two thousand and two, the after effects of September eleventh.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: But this one, Chuck, I am sort of intrigued by
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: Brownstein works with The Atlantic. He's a really smart, thoughtful guy.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: Breaks the data down, long tweet store, whatever the hell
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: it's called now, I don't know what you call it
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: now that it's xt, but a long series of tweets
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: talking about the generic ballot and why were Democrats not
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: ahead by more? And I just went and looked. So
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Democrats are a head on the generic ballot by a
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: you know, somewhere between three and a half and four
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: and a half right now. It's down a little bit
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: from where it was at this point in twenty eighteen,
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: when they picked up forty one seats. Eventually they were
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: up seven and a half points in the generic ballot
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: twenty I just went and looked for reference. Twenty ten
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Republicans at this point were up two and a half
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: in the generic ballot. They wound up picking up sixty
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: two seats. So is the generic should the generic ballot
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: be higher? Given ever Trump unpopular round or gas prices
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: him focusing on election security, no message on affordability. Like,
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: there's a part of me that's like, why aren't Democrats
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: winning by a lot more? How do you like on
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: the generic?
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: At least to me, the generic ballot is has been
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: more accurate of party ID than any I am less,
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: I'm less convinced it's about a vote for Congress anymore.
• 16:12
  Speaker 2: And really I sort of treat it kind of like, yeah,
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: party ID ques that's interesting. There's that second and I'm
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: I'm I'm tempted to take a direct shot at a
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: couple of posters, but I won't.
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: Don't do it unless you really want to, in which
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: case you should know.
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: There are a couple of polling pollsters out there, and
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: if you start, if you go and look at the
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: number of national polls there weren't eighteen versus the number
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: of national polls there are now. Yeah, yeah, And who
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: conducted a big chunk of them in eighteen? Who conducts
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: a big chunk of them now? And there are certain
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: college polls and I'll just leave it at that. I'm
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: not going to get into individual ones because I did.
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: They were never methodology methodologically wrong. They were always just
• 16:59
  Speaker 2: waited too heavily in democrats favor. There is a bunch
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: of polling that I've always thought over rated, you know,
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: sort of over indexed on Democratic party registration. They didn't
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: wait enough by party whatever you want to call it.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: Which just to just to cant the dots there that's
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: going to produce a large generic Democratic I think that.
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: I just I see what Ron did. It's interesting.
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: The problem is you're not comparing apples to apples because.
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: The polsters are different.
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: The polsters are completely different now, yeah, I mean it
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: has really changed from eighteen. And you had a lot
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: a lot of the university polls, and are these are
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: really good polsters who are very stubborn about their methodologies,
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: are very stubborn about weights. And I say this in
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: both admiration and frustration because I've worked with a few
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: of them, and so they're they're I've always said, I
• 18:01
  Speaker 2: trust the trend lines a lot, you know, but I
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: don't trust the raw numbers as much. Right, the trends
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: that are the directional is more not one data point,
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: a series of data points threads that they show somewhere.
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: So I'm just I don't think there's anything has changed.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: I mean, I've just always you know, our generic ballot.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: Now I think it's more of a party ID number.
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: I think that's interesting, and which doesn't mean that it's
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: not useful, right, I mean if if Democrats at the
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: at the end have a and the D plus seven.
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: Is really more of a turnout advantage.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: Right, it's right, exactly, people willing to go ahead.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: It's a party ID number of people willing to say
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: where they stand at.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: The moment, correct, and more willing to identify with the
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: Democratic brand, which is actually important when it comes to vote.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: And I would say another thing, right, it goes to
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: what we talked about a couple of weeks ago, when
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: we had all those SIENA New York Times polls and
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: yes and this and this is these aren't polls, they're
• 19:16
  Speaker 2: forecasts with some and I say this good for I
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: get it what they're doing.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: We're not knocking it. You just have to understand that's
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: just not the point.
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: Is that's in the average now, Well that wasn't happening
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: in twenty eighteen. And so they're they're producing an election
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: day waiting on where things stand now versus what a
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: lot of those old sort of traditional college university academic
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: posters did, which was snapshot in time polling. Don't worry
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: about what you think the electorate is going to look like.
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: We're our job is a snapshot in time. And so
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: I think that that I know, I've really sort of
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: I've created a even more fog and what is already
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: a bog thing to do, But I am I would
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: not compare the generic ballot over different cycles. I think
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: the that's interesting. I think the public polling has dramatically
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: changed in its methodology, its waitings all across the board,
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: and where we.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Were, and I think that's really important.
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: It's not apples apples very hard to You can look
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: at trend lines if you want to show me your
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: month to month like Chaz nottty come yeah. I love
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: those guys. They came out with a poll over the
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: weekend in Georgia that I completely was floored. Me. Okay,
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: but to their credit, you know, they're very transparent about it,
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: and it's clear to me that they don't believe that's
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: where the numbers will become election day, and they made
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: that clear. But they had a poll in Georgia governor
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: that had the race fifty one forty four for Kish
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: Lance Bottoms and I'm.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: Like, wait, what yeah, wow, yeah, yeah, and which maybe
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: where it is today.
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: And what was interesting in their analysis, and Chas made
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: this point is like, look, there's a there's a trend
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: that we've noticed over the last a few cycles, which
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: is inevitably true. And I think this is really interesting
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: is that Democrats are peak polling periods in midterm, in
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: midterm and all election years is the summer. And interesting like.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: Where they get they do their best.
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: Now, what what they chalked it up to is that
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: Republican voters are harder to get a hold of before
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: Labor Day. Now, by the way, interestingly happens when you
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: change the working class electorate totally.
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: So I remember they're not on vacation in the summer.
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: I remember in two thousand it was the Democrats that
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: under totally summer course, and then all of a sudden,
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: come Labor Day, Gore closed the gap. Gore always underperformed
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: as numbers because guess what pollsters are are not biased
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: towards party, They're biased towards education. And when the Republicans
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: are the party of the college educated, their numbers leaned
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: a little bit. Are on general election ballot now picking
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: up the phone, lean left, ye, there end up they
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: have to. So the point was is regularly Democrats were
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: underrated in ninety eight, two thousand, that's back when they
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: had the working class voters that were undercounted in earlier polls.
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: Now you have a complete you know, flip. It's just
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: which I find interesting, by the way, and I'm giving them.
• 22:21
  Speaker 2: I forgot the name of their firm, and I should
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: get it out there. Let's see while i'm talking. Well,
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: i'll find it. Yeah, if you want to find it, Yeah,
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: I'll find it. Go ahead, talk ballot. He had he
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: had the link to it. They did another thing that
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: I really liked, and I want to see more pollsters
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: do this.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: This is the Georgia Pole.
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: This is the Georgia Pole. They created a new version
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: of informed Ballot, so they did a baseline. They did
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: a baseline test of Keisha Lance Bottoms, Rick Jackson. They
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: also did this for the LG race and for like
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: generic ballot for state House, and then for the two
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: state wide races. They said, now take a look at
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: this Google search result for Kaisha Lance Bottoms and this
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: Google search result for Rick Jackson. Now tell us you're
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: now tell us who you're for, essentially recreating what they
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: assume the average voter will do to try to know
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: they're uncited. Right, They're going to do a quick Google
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: on each one. And you know, it seemed to have
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: more of an impact on the race that had fewer
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: knowledgeable voters about the LG. Yes, because by the way
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: state navigating job. But I like the idea of I'm
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: not going to read you information I think you might
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: learn about the patrons. I'm just going to say, here's
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: your Google search. And they did this as text to web,
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: so I imagine they sent a link not only sure,
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: look at this Google search, and look at this Google
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: search and it's you know, Keisha Lance Bottoms on the
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: issues and the Greg Jackson on the issues. Whatever. You
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: just look at the headline. Yeah, now who are you
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: voting for? I just think it's an I want to
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: see more of this. I think it's a potentially a
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: smarter way to do the so called informed ballot if
• 23:59
  Speaker 2: you're trying to figure up, well, what happens when people
• 24:01
  Speaker 2: get more information about each of the opponents, where will
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: this race move? Anyway, I want to sing, no, no,
• 24:07
  Speaker 2: that love the experiment, and I believe you go.
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: I believe it's State Navigate.
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: There, it is State Navigator. They did Virginia polling that
• 24:15
  Speaker 2: was remarkably accurate, and we loved it. Then, I believe
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: you and I we talked about it, We talked about them,
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: and we and praised them back in the election night
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: twenty five. I really it's funny. This is why I
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: look just because you don't you think a poll is off,
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: Go look at the pole, Go look at their now again,
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: dig in and figure out why. And going into it,
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: it was really I learned a lot And anyway, I
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: just want to give them a shout out. But b
• 24:44
  Speaker 2: it gets back to this larger story of there is
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: something to be said about working class voters that just
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: don't pop in polls until they How do you reach
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: seen this pattern now? Frankly for all of our careers.
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about a few individual races before
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: I do that. Our friends at DDHQ released their forecast,
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: their first model last week. I checked it just before
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: we went on. Here's where it is. Democrats have a
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: and I want you to read and react. Democrats currently
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: have a sixty two percent chance of winning the House majority.
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: According to ddhq's model, Republicans currently have a fifty nine
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: percent chance of keeping control of the Senate. Which of
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: those two let me ask you this, which of those
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: two numbers is more interesting to you. I'm going to
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: tell you mine after, But which which of the two
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: of those are you? Like? Oh?
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: I think it's remarkable that the Senate numbers as low
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: as it is.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: That Republicans don't have a higher probability of keeping the Senate. Yeah,
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: and that speaks to environment.
• 25:49
  Speaker 2: That's the environment, that's yeah, And it's it's sort of like, look,
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: I think we all that we see the path you know,
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: remember in referendum elections, and this looks like it's going
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: to be a referendum election. It's does good candidates win
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: and bad campaigns.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: With hundred percent?
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: Right, like you know, and you don't know the good
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: in the from the bad until the next election. Then
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: you find it was.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: The guy who won Dan rossen Kowski seat in ninety four,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: Mike Slant again, was that his name? It was like, dude,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: they're a Republican. Yeah, it was a one. Well, it's
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: the Paula Hawkins nineteen eighty and in your home state,
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: and she.
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: Did it in eighty there was one in the guy
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: who beat Freezer Cash, right, didn't he win a side?
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: Yes? Hung No, it's not hung out. It's Joe Joe
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: cow Joe gout. Yes, yes, in Luisa in New Orleans.
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: It was in New Orleans.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah right, it was, yeah, And then they sort itself
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: out a year after That's right, two years you end
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: up finding out, you know, you pull look us, we're
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: getting ready for a storm down here in Pensacola.
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: I think it's going to just miss us, but it
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: is it. You get all sorts of new stuff that
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: comes up on your little shoreline. Oh yeah, when the
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: seas get a little rough, and let's just say that,
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: you know. So the point is is that look in
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: a in a in a pretty significant Wavish election. And
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: for me, I've always said Iowa, Iowa is my is
• 27:15
  Speaker 2: my fifty yard line for wave. Yeah here, bell Weather,
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: I think I agree.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And and you mean Iowa Senate House, governor all
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: I mean it all right, Yeah, this state.
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: I think it's one of those because there's three house seats,
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: a governor's race and a center race yep, and three
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: legitimate swing house seats. This is not like, oh, it's
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: kind of a reach.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: It's Trump woned by seventeen. No.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: No, it's three swing house seats and one and the
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: other one's open like radically. That's right because thin Straw
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: was right, random loss for governor. But it's a it's
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: a uh, it's I look at the Senate map for
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: Democrats and it's so daunting. I mean, oh, you know,
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: if Republicans just come home a little bit, they can't
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: win to Texas. If Republicans come home in a moderate way,
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: they can't win Iowa. And if Republicans come home completely,
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: they can't win Ohio either, right, like it is they
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: are really when your strategy is counting on other people
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: not voting, and ultimately Texas is counting on people not voting.
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, chuck, it's look at the look at the
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: races they have to win. Alaska Trump plus thirteen, and
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: I know he's not there today, but Alaska plus thirteen Iowa,
• 28:37
  Speaker 1: Alaska is different.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: I agree. Agree.
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying, if you look at the map, right,
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: it's like, okay, main, Fine, I can see that North
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: Carolina in a year like this, fine, Cooper's better candidate.
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: Trump won by three, it went by line. But then
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: every one of those other states Trump won by double digit.
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: He didn't just win by double digit. Yes, that's our road.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: I will say this. Let me throw one at you,
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: all right, And this gets it to if Democrats win
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: the Senate, what's more likely exactly four or six or more?
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: Six or more?
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah?
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: I think so too, because I don't see how you
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: win or it doesn't. Yeah, I just don't see.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: How you don't win like a Texas unless like Dan
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: Osborne potentially wins, do you know what I mean? Like,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: I just don't like the environment would have to be
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: so groulted, like it feels like Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska.
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: Two of those three totally totally like almost under everything. Yes,
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: you know, right, so all of a sudden, you know, now,
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: I do believe this. I do believe the Senate majority
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: goes through the Midwest for the Democrats, and if they
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: don't get the majority, it's not because of what happened
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: in Maine in.
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: An No, that's because Ohio, Michigan, and Ohio, Iowa and.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: Iowa totally, to a lesser extent, Kansas and Nebraska. I
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: just like teenth century history the Kansas Nebraska.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: I just think history often suggests too that like in elections,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: almost always the toss ups and the leans go one way.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: They very rarely they can, but they very rarely split.
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: It's interesting you said the Senate. I was going to say,
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: the House was more surprising than me. And I'll tell
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: you why. That it's only a six only a sixty
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: two percent probability. Skelly and I spent like twenty minutes
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: explaining to the people about.
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: How such a majority.
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: It's a three seat majority, even if you say it's
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: an eight seat majority withre redistricting. It's like, you know,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: if you go back and look at mid term elections
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: with a president under fifty percent of the vote and
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: his party in control of the House. I mean, look,
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: we I just said sixty two seats in twenty ten,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: forty one seats in twenty four. Like you you would
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: think we'd be like, oh, they're going to win. It's
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: only a question of how many. Like there's a four
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: ish in ten chance right now, according to dB two,
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: republicans hold the House. To me, if I woke up November, well,
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: we'll probably still be awake. If I was still awake
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: on November fourth, uh, and you said, hey, Weds could
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: just confirm Republicans in.
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: The House, I would be I would be very surprised
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: based on the atmosphere. I'll give you. I'll give you
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: a fun little way to do it. Will well, the
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: Democrats get their majority before California finishes its account. That
• 31:27
  Speaker 2: to me tells you if they need California to get
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: the majority, it's a bad night.
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: Oh, totally, totally no.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: That's why I think that will they get their majority?
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: You know? Might you know, look, I think it's a
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: three and four chance. I understand with a handful of
• 31:46
  Speaker 2: rulings that we've had this summer has gone the perceptions
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: Republicans have won perception summer, right, Yes, the redistricting, some
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: rulings that went their way, rulings that went against the Bees.
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: But the one thing that didn't change was Donald Trump.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: And the one thing that didn't change was the overall
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: uh crankiness of the electorate about this correct And oh,
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: by the way, the one big thing that changed from
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: the beginning of the summer to now is that this
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: we now look like we maybe have entered a new
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: forever war. I was gonna say, the Iran war is
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: now we're back on right when you know, how, what
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: does the end of this look?
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: Why do we get out of this one?
• 32:27
  Speaker 2: And it's like, boy, this feels like a bad a
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: bad series that I don't want to watch. But it's
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: just going to keep happening, isn't it. No? I totally agree.
• 32:38
  Speaker 2: And it's like the other problem that.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: You'd like below deck for me? Who's below deck for you?
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: I know you have a thing for below deck.
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: I know, I don't like you know, I get the premise.
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: You know, it's like whatever people that work for yacht.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: Sure of course it's dude, it's the upstairs, downstairs thing.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's the Brits. The bridge perfected this million
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: years ago. I I I don't know. It's just like
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: when I look at all the things we typically look at, right, history,
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: presidential approval, message, right candidates, I'm like, oh my god,
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: of course Democrats are going to win the House. And
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: then I talked to Skelly and he's like, well, you know,
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: and and again their DDSQ is not us right.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: They have a scientific, scientific method behind it, a math.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's the thing. The math is in the
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: Republican's favor, yes, right, And I think people forget that
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: in the Senate and in the House.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: It's it's the equivalent of.
• 33:37
  Speaker 2: You know, I'm all right, I'm going to do a
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: soccer analogy. We we won Spain would be a heavy
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: favorite even if that game were in Buenos Aires, correct,
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: But they just play that game in Buenos Aires. Would
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: have been harder, would have been harder. Yes, And the
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: Democrats are playing a road game. That's the Yes, they're
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: playing a road game. This is an uh uh. Now,
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: I happen to think the House is as fair as
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: the House maps have been generally in a generation. Now,
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: are they fair individual states? No, The overall fairness in
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: in the in the overall count is as fair as
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: we've had in right in terms of like aligned with
• 34:24
  Speaker 2: our ideology. Yeah, it's sort of balanced by extremes, right, totally. Somehow,
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: we we are we are, we are, we are in
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: alignment here, but we've gotten there in such a weird way.
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: Right, there are no swing districts left anymore, but we're
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: weirdly in alignment partisan wise. It's crazy.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: Like Wisconsin has always been my favorite example of this.
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: Here's one of the closest states in the nation with
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: not a single swing county. That's the craziest thing now,
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: back and forth, I know, and it's increasingly what happens
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: in our in our congression.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: We're just so sordid. It's a reflection of our sorting, right, I.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: Mean, have right and you have the Republican lean of
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: the Senate seat. So the fact is, you know. But
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: the other thing that we don't talk about enough, and
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: why the Democrats are probably more favored than than they're
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: getting credit for in the markets, is independence. Look like
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: Democrats in every single poll, every single yep, yep, they are.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: They are not splitting the difference between the two parties
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: right now. They are not. This is a very no.
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: They're acting like Democrats and are breaking left and in
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: these this has been go look at you know, Obama
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: didn't win independence in twelve anyone.
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: But that's an exception. It does very much an exception
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: to the rule.
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: And in fact, I think Kerrie narrowly carried independence oh four. Right,
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: But you could argue that both of those were because
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: the two parties saw their own share the vote go down,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: and those folks were really just closet and.
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: They're just closeted partisans. Yes, yes, yes, but I just
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: find it. I just it's swinging, I know, So I
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: just it was just an interesting like reality check for
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: me over the last week talking to Skelly going through
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: the DDHQ model and then just like thinking about it
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: and being like, I just I we talk about this
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: all the time.
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: How it's really important?
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Question your prior right.
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: It's yeah, analytics. Okay, the Dodgers are there been the
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: better team against everybody they've played over the last six
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: years by the numbers. They haven't won all six years,
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: have they?
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: That's right?
• 36:31
  Speaker 3: It out, Yeah, that's why we played the game, Chuck, Okay,
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: can we.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Do a few specific Senate races that have a bunch
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: of developments. On Monday, two things happened in South Carolina,
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: one of which I didn't expect. Russell Fry, the congressman
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: who's very close to Donald Trump, announced he is running
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: in the special special election will be August eleventh, with
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: a potential run.
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: Off August twenty fIF five. Kind of close tomorrow A
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: couple days, A couple days this week. I thought it
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: was Why did I think it was tomorrow? Second Tuesday
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: after his death?
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: It's soon would beat him? Which would be today?
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: I know it is, it's it is. We are recording
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: Monday afternoon. It is Tuesday. Correct, You're right, and that's
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: why we have all these decisions. So on Monday, Russell
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: Fry gets in. Didn't surprise me. Darlene Graham Nordone, the
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: senator currently appointed to replace her late brother Lindsay Graham,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: announced she's running for a full term. Chuck, did that
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: surprise you? It surprised me.
• 37:49
  Speaker 2: It does, And I'll tell you want to This is
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: a case where this is this is the Republican Party
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: being pragmatic, this is Donald Trump beingmatic.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: This has endorsed.
• 38:03
  Speaker 2: Let's see how the electorate handles this. And I you know,
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: it's interesting apparently, like McMaster has taken aback, he didn't
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: think she would do this right, right, And it's because
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: you know, the insider crowd, you know they were because
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: this is a six year.
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: Oh, they were falling all over themselves. She's she is
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: now she has now butted herself to the front of
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: that line, and they did not think she was.
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: Going to now that it's Look, I there's a scenario
• 38:32
  Speaker 2: where where Republicans could have nominated the wrong person and
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: put this seat in play. Sure, Annie Andrews is a
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: totally credible person.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: It's impossible.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: I think you put it and yeah, this is a
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: rare case where the where the Republican Party led by
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump is actually doing the pragmatic, smart political move
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: and getting her to do this. It just shut the door, right.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: It's these weird special elections are always when when now
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: they're weird, it's happened, you don't. You've got to mitigate
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: as much of the weird and the most sympathetic figure
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: you could get there that would right now apparently is
• 39:11
  Speaker 2: is is her? So I guess I'm so shocked that
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: the Republican Party is doing something pragmatic, but it is
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: Lindsey Graham right, if there's anybody who lived in briefed
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: pragmatism sometimes to the to the to the point that
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: it seemed to violate what we thought were principles. But
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: that is, you know, one person's principles is another person's politics.
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: So I know, I'm not gonna you know, this is
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: the life he chose politically. In the short term, it's
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: a great If you are the center of Republicans, you're
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: just relieved. You totally want what I mean.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: You don't want Russell Crime. You certainly don't want Nancy
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: Mace any of that. Norman can't any of these house
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: clowns or house like clowns. It is not an impassive
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: hose delegation on the Republican side.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: I would say, in general, I'm.
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Not surprised they they Trump and wanted her to. I
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: guess I'm a little surprised she did it. She never
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: run for anything before, like but you know, but I
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: don't know, I mean, being in the Senate seems, you know,
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: might be fun. I don't know.
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry, you know. The first of all, I'm sure
• 40:24
  Speaker 2: she has a you know, I think people have some
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: such strong feelings about this president that they forget how
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: persuasive any president is. Of course, of course you're like,
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: the president asked me to run, wants me to thinks
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: I should stay being a senator, and this is the
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: you're right, And I don't know. I mean, I think
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: I think she. I think she. I know if she's
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: answering the question the following way, which is probably how
• 40:55
  Speaker 2: I would do it for a family member like this,
• 40:58
  Speaker 2: which would be what would they want want me to do?
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: And she clearly is I think that's right.
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: He clearly would want the crazy out here.
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: Yep, you do, you know, And.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: They were really they were legitimately close, and she did
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: help advise him, and I mean it does make sense retrospect.
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: I was just a I think it's a big win
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: for John Thune, like it is. He's had such so
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: many losses this cycle, right just doesn't offset Ken Paxton.
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: But yes, I mean, but he you know, it was
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: being set up that he was going to get another crazy,
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: you know, replacing a normy and and maybe he gets
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: to avoid it. I mean, like I said, I know
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: Fune can't celebrate it that way right now, but that's
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: like one less like all right, that's one less Alka
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: Seltzer tablet I at the tip this week totally the
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: other one.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: It's it's funny we've moved from potential high drama to
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: low drama in both of these. So in Maine, obviously,
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: Graham Planner out of the picture, Troy Jackson, former state
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: Senate president, all of a sudden, is going to be
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: the convention is the twenty fifth, so it's this weekend,
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: this coming weekend. Yeah, but everyone, all the top tier
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: at Shannabello's Secretary State dropped out, Jordan Wood dropped out,
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: Dan Cleveland dropped out.
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: I mean everyone who listens, they all just like acknowledge
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: the reality. Well, he's got the vote and now it's
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: a coronation. I guess, hey, that's what it looks like.
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: Uh what do you? Is Troy Jackson a risk? Not
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: as risky as Graham Platner, but he's the a risk
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: because of the lefty stuff or not in your Obviously
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: we don't know a ton about him yet, but our
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: main voters may not.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: But I think the thing we all, everybody should have
• 42:49
  Speaker 2: a little bit of humility on, is it. Susan Collins
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: is a pretty formidable figure. Yes she is, and nobody
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: in Maine is going to believe she's mega right and that.
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: He's been there since nineteen ninety six, actually ninety four. Yeah,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: I mean she's been in politics for a very long time.
• 43:05
  Speaker 2: Now, you know. I imagine, you know, if Susan Collins
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: is who prevents Todd Blanch from being Attorney general, If
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: Susan Collins who you know, I'm very there's a few
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: votes I'll be very curious about between.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: They still have not scheduled the Todd Blanche Judiciary Committee vote. Yeah,
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: because they don't have that, because they don't have any
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: They don't Now they'll call it when they have it.
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: Given corn it for his vote, Like what is it
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: that I just don't see it?
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, you get Trump to sign a document that
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: says I'll never never do the one point eight billion
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: dollar slush fund, but he believes in the slush fund.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: He said that multiple times, that.
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: Only Congress can say no to this.
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and what are you going to do to John
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: Cornyan at this point? I mean that's the other thing.
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: So you know, I do think this ice thing is
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: a real problem for Collins because of her position as
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: Homeland Security.
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: Can it happen there? Right, it's gotten a massive amount
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: of coverage in the state.
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: And you know, Tom Holman is, like I said, a
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: terrible spokesperson for the for the West wing on this.
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: He's only slightly better than that the Luna, Greg Bovino.
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: Well and or Nolan. They're old, and he is better
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: than Stephen Miller. It's sort of like, oh my god,
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: right Stephen Miller, right, and you know.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: You talk, we need to get the legal immigrants out
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: of here.
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: Holman is one of these people. You know, when Homan
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: worked in Democratic administrations, he didn't this way, he's performing
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: for his boss, right, Yes, he understands them. He gets
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: the Remit Chuck, it does. But you know he's one
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: of those that just you just sort of shake your head.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: You know you know better, dude.
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: I'm telling you. It's the Todd Lance J. Clayton that
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: we talked about earlier, and ambition is a powerful drug.
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: You are humiliating yourself with because he wants to be empowered.
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't hire him under any circumstance if you have
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: that little principle, right, never mind the back of cash issue, right.
• 45:03
  Speaker 1: But it's like we still have never gotten answer on
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: what happened to that now fifty thousand dollars in can yet.
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: I do think he's a responsible public servant, and everything
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: about had been up until this point, he'd been one
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: of a pretty responsible public servants.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: Somebody, well, yeah, I mean, if it's between Nome, if
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: it's between Nome and Lewandowski and Bovino and Homan, we're
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: choosing Homan to watch this?
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: You know, it's like what I mean, Holman's pulling a
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: Mike Lee. You're like, wait a minute, the Mike Lee
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: I knew totally twenty ten to twenty six.
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: Pree based Mike Lee was a.
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: Really interesting, thoughtful conservative totally. The guy out there now
• 45:37
  Speaker 2: seems like he's way too online. I'm sure he thinks
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: the Odyssey sucks. By the way, of course, two won't.
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: My favorite thing happening right now is there is sort
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: of like how the online it's a reminder of how
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: the online world is not real life.
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Not real life.
• 45:54
  Speaker 2: Odyssey commentary on the right is a prime example.
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: I think it made one hundred.
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: And fi fifty million dollars in this weekend or something.
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's just massive.
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's just massive hit.
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: Like nobody the best is the response to the response,
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: like Ben Shapiro is now like it's a good movie,
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: but I love this. You know, there's all this sort
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: of well, you know, uh, you know what what race
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: should various actors be? And I'm like, do you know what.
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: Ancient Greece looked like?
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: A picture? Give me a break?
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: Do you know what the skin age?
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: It's fine? And where where we eight hundred BC? Isn't
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: that what we're it?
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: Just e's the Internet is not real life?
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: Part nine billion, six hundred and seventy two.
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: I mean, like, you know, I mean, but no, I.
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: Think Troy, I don't I think the I think that
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: ice incident. I mean you want to do you think
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: it holds.
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: As a big deal chuck all the way through the fall?
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it holds all the way through
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: the fall.
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: I don't either.
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: But here's what it did do. It gave it basically
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: neutralized the Grand Platin or disaster, and that's it moved
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: the conversation over that here, and it allows for Troy
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: Jackson to start off I think, yes, even rather than
• 47:12
  Speaker 2: he's not having to apologize for he's not sitting here
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: saying that that is going to be the reason. But
• 47:19
  Speaker 2: the last week we've not been talking about Grand Platta.
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: We've been one hundred percent. We've been talking totally and under.
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: You know, if you're the Collins campaign, that's that's that's
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: a that's a loss, not a win.
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: Can I just want to quickly get you on the
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: fact that the four hundred million dollar Katari plane that
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: was gifted to Donald Trump and Donald Trump alone now
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: appears to not be safe enough for the President United
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: States to fly on, and they are taking it offline.
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: I thought, I'm like, this is like us on the
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: reflecting pool. People like you and Chuck said the reflecting
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: pool was going to bring Trump down. Neither of us
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: anything like that. What we said is in a lot
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: of ways, it's a microcosm of the broader issues. That's
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: how I feel about the plane rushed through because you
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: wanted a new plane. You know. It's like when you
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: get a new something, you're like, it doesn't matter, don't
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: look at that instructure.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: It was like, crap and make it blue so I
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: can have my photo on.
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: It's like so indicative, like I want a new plane,
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: I want to fly in luxury. Oh wait, we needn't
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: cross all the odds.
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: So this is why character and temperament are the to me, singularly,
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: the most important attributes you have to decide when deciding
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: on a president, because it is it is his impatience. Yeah,
• 48:38
  Speaker 2: he is why we're in this war with the wrong
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: It's his impatience that somebody said, oh, we'll easily have
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: regime change within a week if we do it this way,
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: and he just wanted to hurry up and do it.
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: It's his impatience that makes him think, well, let's air
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: strike our way out of this. This is not just
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: impatience about a silliness of the reflecting pool. Now. Point
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: is the same impatience about the reflecting pool, about his
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: little plane and about the Iran war.
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: It's all the same.
• 49:07
  Speaker 2: It's this temp right, he does not have the character
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: nor the temperament to lead this country. It is plainly obvious.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: It is something Marco Rubio said, It is something Ted
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: Cruz said, It is something that Perry said. This is
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: not just me saying this like it is totally This
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: is a universally accepted observation back in twenty fifteen, and
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: then people went with it anyway because they really want
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: to change that bad Okay, well to rat take this
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: guy because we think that political establishment sucks. I understand that.
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: I get that, learn from the voters. Democrats have yet
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: to learn from the voters. They keep going with establishment people.
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: So and they have not sort of accepted They've never
• 49:50
  Speaker 2: accepted the premise that they lost twenty sixteen.
• 49:52
  Speaker 1: That's right, And I will say in the same way
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: he's never accepted the premiscy he lost twenty twenty. Correct,
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: and we sit here and make fun of Trump on
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty. Yeah, but the Democrats inability to look inward
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: and understand why that race was lost?
• 50:07
  Speaker 2: How did you lose to someone like that? Could could
• 50:10
  Speaker 2: you have technically wanted had the Russians not gotten involved,
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: maybe you would have won it by a point here
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: or there. Maybe, but you never should have been in
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: a race. No, somebody shouldn't have been close. This lacking
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: of the two basic skills an American president needs, and
• 50:24
  Speaker 2: you lost anyway. So you know, that's always been something
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: I thought. The Democrats have never looked in the mirror
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: about twenty sort of come to terms why they lost. Right,
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: It has always been about, oh my god, he stole it,
• 50:36
  Speaker 2: or the Russians took it or and it never has been.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: Any any Homie Komy Komy screwed hermy yeah.
• 50:44
  Speaker 2: Bernie Sanders screwed her. There's never been Clinton accountability on that, right,
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: and there's never.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: Been more accountability for the part of party more broadly.
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: Right. Yeah.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: I one of my favorite quotes, and it is about
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: Trump you you mentioned twenty fifteen. It's from Jeb Bush.
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: He said, and you know it got dismissed, and he
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: said he is a chaos candidate and if elected, he
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: will be a chaos president. And I do I think
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: that's just that's it.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: Wow, I mean, that's that's the best quote is still
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: and I'm going to get it exactly here. Yeah, the
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: greatest quote and Marco that will live I think as
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: long as long as as Rubio's ten year secretary of state.
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: These these are people that, whether it's now or five
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: years from now, or two years from now or six
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: months from now, are going to be explaining for a
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: long time how they fell into this.
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yep, and it's Ruvio about Donald Trump. That was
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: Marco Ruvio circa twenty sixteen, twenty fifteen, twenty sixteen.
• 51:42
  Speaker 2: I mean, let's see you know, let's some other great
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: ones from him. I will never stop until we keep
• 51:48
  Speaker 2: a con man from taking over the Party of Reagan
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: and the Conservative movement. That was a that was a
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: delicious one. You know, it's it's everything that they were right.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: And the irony is that about six months. I've always
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: said this about Trump. Trump, There's a reason he's got
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: to force his name onto stuff while he's alive, because
• 52:09
  Speaker 2: you know what, no one's going to do.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: It's not going to get named after him after we passed.
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: He is Grover Cleveland. Yeah, and go ask yourself how
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: many bridges are named for Glover Cleveland, How many libraries
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: are named for Grover Cleveland? How many bridges are named
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: for Grover Cleveland? I mean, and I bet you people
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: thought Grover Cleveland was going to be historically relevant because
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: he did what no other person had ever of course,
• 52:33
  Speaker 2: made history lose win first time.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: He's a trivia He's a trivia answer at this point.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: And Donald Trump, you know which president one time hosted
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: a game show? Right like that will be.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: About which president was featured in a pro wrestling narrative.
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: Right in like fifty years. He's just to.
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: Be which he's desperate to avoid two points he's desperate
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: to avoid.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: But it isn't going to be a book, and it
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: ain't going to be a chapter.
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: I'm fascinated by that because you know, you and I
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: have talked about this many tennis for and he hasn't
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: done it lately, and we don't need to go down
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: this rabbit hole now. But there was a period where,
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: not that long ago, where he started talking about mortality
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: a ton and whether he was going to make it
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: to heaven and his parents. I mean, he's doc like,
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: he's very much more so, like all second term presidents
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: are aware of their legacy, but when you're eighty years old,
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: you're not in great hell. He's like very mortality around him, right,
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: Lindsay just died nine years his junior, right like, I mean,
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: it's and McConnell anyway, all right, Chuck, last thing, Yes, sir,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: uh we are filming this Monday, late afternoon. I just checked.
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: The Athletic has a live blog on this, which tells
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: you what a big deal it is. Lebron has not
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: said where he is going yet. Now you ever rooting
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: interest here, Chuck Todd, Miami Native, Where do we think
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: it appears? To be the Sixers, and the Heat and
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: the Calves appear to be the final three. Do you
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: want to make a prediction on where you think with
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: your acknowledgment that you are a you know.
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: I'm a Bandwagon Heat. I have confessed to what I
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: am in the NBA. I am a band Wagon Wizards
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: and Heat fan, which means me.
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: Too, I am a Wizards.
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: I'm always rooting for the Wizards in the Heat to
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: do well. I end up rooting a lot more for
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: the Heat because they're more relevant than the Wizards. Yeah,
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: I will happen.
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: I want it. I think the Wizards are going to happen,
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: But yes, do you want them to be relevant?
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: I will watch the Nationals lose fifteen to one. I
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: will not watch the Wizards lose one by thirty one.
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: Oh right, right, So that's the distinction. How I am
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: the same as me fair Weather? Yes, that is me
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: on the on the NBA. So yes, I do you know?
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: I I love the Heat spolster. I think the Heat
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: arguably is one of the most successful Uh there, you
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: know they and the Marlins are to the most successful
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: quote unquote expansion franchises like in the history of both.
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: Of their view, I think they're one of the most
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: well run. I was going to compare them to the
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: Steelers in that continuity, the heat Riley Spools really well
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: run here.
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: It is the best run team in.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: Which is why they've been good through eras as opposed
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: to they're good when you have one amazing player change things.
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: I said this before, and I went, you know, it
• 55:52
  Speaker 2: is all about I think, you know, if does Lebron
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: care what type of bast the ball he's going to
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: be expected to play. So, for instance, the reason I
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: don't think he goes to Cleveland is I don't think
• 56:07
  Speaker 2: he wants to play with James Harden, and I don't
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: More importantly.
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: Hardens still unsigned.
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: I will note, well, which is interesting.
• 56:15
  Speaker 1: But yes, I agree with you.
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: It feels like a dominating but it's it's less about
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: Hardened specific and it's the fact that both Harden and
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: Mitchell are there that's too body a.
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: Lot of ball downfall guys.
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and if he goes to Cleveland, he's going to
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: be asked to play more front court than back yep.
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: And at his age does he want to do that?
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: This is why I've always thought Miami, even though it's
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: geographically a pain in the ass for him to go
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: see Bryce James in Arizona.
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: In Arizona, you know, Bronni in La There were.
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: To me the two teams that were physically the best
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: teams for Lebron to play on. Okay, what I mean
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: is how he can preserve his body. He would be
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: more of a backcourt guy than a front court guy.
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: Is Miami in Denver, right, because Jokicic is you know,
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: he doesn't have to of.
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Course, and you have Aaron Gordon playing the four right, and.
• 57:07
  Speaker 2: He can play the two or the three if you want, yep,
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: with Joannison, Bam, he gets to be He's a three.
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 57:15
  Speaker 2: On that I think in the Cleveland scenario and frankly,
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: in the likelihood if he goes to the Philly where
• 57:21
  Speaker 2: Embiide will play five, you know, five games out of twenty.
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: I was gonna say, it's gonna be ga, you know,
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: and I just don't have to guard It's not even offensive.
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: We've got to guard those big guys. That's what wears
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: you down. I've been evaluating this.
• 57:34
  Speaker 2: That way.
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: What is going to be the combination of least taxing
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: on him, correct and best for his family? Right in
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: his brand.
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: Well, I think best for his brand. Yeah, I think
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: that matters. I think best for his and I look,
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: I also will say this. Let's say I tell you, hey,
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: welcome to the Hall of Fame. We have a table
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: here for those that have won five rings or more.
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: It's where Kobe gets to sit. Magic s Michael Jordian
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: sits there. Michael, right, all these people get to said Russell,
• 58:04
  Speaker 2: Oh wait a minute, you have four I know, oh,
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: I know. Now you get to hang out with Dwayne Wade.
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: He's got sure, you're clear, he's clearly great.
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: It's a question at the table with Tim Duncan and
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: you're not at the table with you know, I do
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: think he wants that fifth title, right, And then so
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: you start to so I was really trying hard not
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: to even come across as Homer here for the heat,
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: But I look at the heat as the best option
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: for him. Of everybody there in that one, he his
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: presence turns them from a pretender to contender. They are
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: not a contender without.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: No, not without him. Okay, they got Giannis and a
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: bunch of other guys and bam. But other than that, the.
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: East is easier to get to the finals, definitely if
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: he don't have to go to San Antonio as oral city.
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: As a pure basketball fan, I would love to see
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: Lebron and Jokic playing the same team. A great and
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: yet how are you going to get through both say
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: Antonio and okay, s think you are. And never mind
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: Houston and Minnesota total akers who are not easy out
• 59:07
  Speaker 2: all gotten better. Okay, they all got better. So I
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: came to the conclusion and I don't see a path.
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: Like I said, Lebron, I don't the fit in Cleveland doesn't.
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: I can't imagine he wants to play with Harden. I can't.
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: I go back. And by the way, Jalen Brown feels
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: the same way. Jaylen Brown is a guy who shouldn't
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: be handling the ball, but he's going to insist on
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: handling the ball. And you know, now, I will say this,
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: The Ringer people have me convinced that Rich Paul and
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: the power of the agency that they all run, yes, Clutch,
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: Maxie and all that, that that Philly is potentially more
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: that if Philly wins, it's that, okay, But if you're
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: evaluating this on the criteria that I thought it was
• 59:51
  Speaker 2: non relationship driven, correct, which is physically less taxing combination
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: with more likelihood to win title. And by the way,
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: where did he win two? What system?
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: And not one? Not two?
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: Right?
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: And yeah, you're right, sist though.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: And he knows Riley and he knows Spulstra right, and
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: he any and if golf is relevant, hey man to words,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: got great.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: Golf, So Chuck, I pulled it up.
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 2: I hete the heat makes the most sense for him
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: and the And what were the final three? Who's claiming
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 2: it's Cleveland Miami?
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: And well, I'm most of what I've seen is Cleveland, Miami, Philly.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: But the decision has been made that it's in the East. Well,
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 2: apparently West contenders.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: Now do what you will with the smarts of political
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: prediction or prediction markets. Here's polymarket heat fifty one percent chance, yes,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: way up heat.
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: Early I called.
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: Cleveland Cleveland twenty eight percent, Golden State fourteen, which I'm
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: surprised because I don't think that's gonna work go and
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: then Philly is Philly is ten and there's no one
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: above one percent, So it's basically those four.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: Golden State tells me he's just interested. He hasn't decided
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: what he wants to do in retirement and is correct,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 2: stay on the West coast. Yeah, I want to keep
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: playing basketball. And hey, we'll get a lot of primetime
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 2: attention because it's build my content studio, be around those
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: you know, by the way I make staff. He gets
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: to be at the fort Ring table with staff. Yeah,
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: at the Hall of Fame.
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 1: I'm fascinated to do this great at building drama. I
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: will give him credit for that, Like he takes a
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: lot of s for it, but like I give him credit,
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: Like I'm intrigued.
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: I but if you're asked, I really believe this and
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: again say I'm a Miami homer. I think if you
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: evaluate each situation based on what that criteria laid out
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 2: about the physicality on him, where he fits best, all
• 1:01:54
  Speaker 2: of that stuff. You know, just because he can play
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: like a he can play the power forward position.
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: Dude, he's in his forties. Chuck one wants to do
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: to guard as six foot eleven twenty two year Rolentic.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: Let Bam and Yannis beat him. Beat it and you.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: Don't have to guard Cooper flag all the time. They
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: don't want to do that, man.
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 2: I just think that Lebron brings more additive to the
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: heat than any other situation.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 1: He turns that I'm intriguing a a much more Yeah,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: still relevant this year.
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: By the way, here the NBA. If you get to
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 2: rekindle Nick's heat, forget well and remember him him, he
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: is a better run.
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: It's a great and remember too, like it's it's not
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: just let's say he goes to the heat. That means
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: he is not on the Sixers. It means he is
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: not on the cant right. It weakens them while strengthening Miami.
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: I mean the same is true wherever he goes. Uh, here,
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: we are done. This is super Tuesdays. Subscribe like do
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: everything he can across all the various podcast platforms. Speaking
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: of podcasts, Chuck talk about your podcast empire and where
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: people can find it awesome.
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: I appreciate it. The Chuck Podcast drops off Mondays and
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: Thursdays right now in the summer. I've got my friend
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 2: Daniel Silva. He's one of my favorite oh novelists. Gabriel
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: Alan is his character that he writes amazing you know,
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: sort of mysteries thrillers with And if you don't know
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: Danny Silva, he's Jamie Gangel's husband. That's how I've gotten
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: to know him over the years. But he was a
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 2: journalist first. Then he became this great novelist. The point
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: is his novels are always historically accurate, that's.
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: Right, and there's good political intrigue in them.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: And they're very in the moment without feeling like you
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 2: have to pick a side. I just saying he does
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 2: a terrific love it and he and I don't talk
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 2: about books. We talk about what's happened to America's relationship
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 2: with Europe because this book takes place in Europe, and
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: we spend a lot of time on that. So that's
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 2: the chuckto we do. That's what you I'll bring on
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: a novelist about We'll make him talk about NATO and
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: we might talk about NATO.
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: That's the chuck pod casting the Nuts and Dynastic with dondeh.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: This is deep dives into famous franchises.
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: This summer, this month it's Wimbledon. Wimbledon. Love it a
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: ton of fun. It was a ton of fun. I learned.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: I got to listen to that one because I mean,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: I watch it always as a kid and still now.
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: But I don't know enough of the history. I need
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: to know more of the history this is where you.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: Here's the thing that blew me away, and I'll just
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: give you it, which is you know you always think, okay,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 2: Wimbledon is tennis? Right, No, no, no, no, like the rules
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: of tennis were written, like the size of the court
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: today is what Wimbledon decided the size of the court
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: was like tennis.
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: I did not know that.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 2: Interesting, Well, rackets, I didn't either, like you always knew
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: it was. Why Wimbledon and tennis are synonymous. Well, it's it's.
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: Literally as if it was basically invented there at St. Andrew's.
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: Right, it's the same. Yes, it's like, why is St Andrews?
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: Is that much more special than every other course? Right?
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: Literally that was like where they started. That is dynastic.
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: Chuck in Jaya Donde the Chuck toodcast twice a week
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: and obviously subscribe like comment on all those and make
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: sure you check out super Tuesdays. We're here literally everything.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: You've got all your stuff on substack, Oh my gosh,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: substack YouTube you can find me.
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: Don't worry about that. I'm more interested in the Chuck
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: tab Chuck Todd Expanded Universe.
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: Look at you, well, we're it's a powerful universe we're creating,
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: we're having slowly building more to come. We're actually it's
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: a what's bigger? The universe is bigger than a galaxy.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: I have to know what am I? Neil de grasse Tyson. Yeah,
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, don't ask me questions I don't know the
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: answer to. All right're leaving, Chuck, Chris. We'll be napped
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: next Tuesday. All right, man, take care of my friend.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: I do, all right, I gonna run, go n ask