Latest / The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping / Episode 48: New Year 6 and CFP Semifinal Betting Preview

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Episode 48: New Year 6 and CFP Semifinal Betting Preview · The Crazy Sheet - CFB Handicapping

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Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls at your favorite time of week, you
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get you something cold to drink, and lets you're up north and you get
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some warm and you get a greade down the crazy sheet. We're gonna talk
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about some college football. I'm marking. I'm here in the podcasting studio and
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Scottie is at home. Brother, how the hell are you? And I'm
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good, had a nice Christmas, getting ready for New Year's. I'm doing
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exactly what I want to do in New Year's which is absolutely nothing. It's
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fabulous, So you should be should be great. I will open a bottle
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of wine, relax, probably will not see midnight. It'll be outstanding.
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You're in a better situation at home, so it's great you're You're in a
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better situation than I have. I mean, I've got college kids at home,
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I've got seniors in high school, and I mean my house just looks
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like a flophouse of people that roll through here on a daily basis. And
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so I am ready for school to start back up, because it's just been
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a turnstile of a barstool door at my house for the last three and a
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half weeks. And so I'll be I'll be happy to see that move on.
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I can imagine that. Yeah, that that would be I'd be ready
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to move on from that. So I'm I wouldn't say I'm ready to get
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back to work because it'll hit pretty hard, but probably need a little more
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structure too. Yeah. Yeah, we'll be fine once we get there.
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But so bowl season, we haven't had a chance to hook up since long
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before Christmas. We put some picks out there, did okay, and you
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know, time got caught up with this. You and I do this for
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fun, just trying to share some of our love for college football with folks
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and going through it. It's been interesting, like you literally have to be
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combing beat writers to try to figure out who's playing, who's opting out the
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game. The biggest game I missed is what I've played. And as I
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told you when we started this, I was going to play everything light because
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I wasn't sure what you were going to get. I've come in to have
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you on a couple Auburn yesterday, no showing in that Maryland game. I
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was very impressed with what Mike Loxley did, and you know he's been a
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good coach for Maryland. I mean they've get Yeah, I mean, they've
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done a really good job. I wasn't high on the higher but that team's
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I think, you know, they've won eight games in four years in a
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row consecutively. They haven't been years, yeah, whatever, they haven't been
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this competitive since Region was there all those years ago. And so he's done
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a good job. But man, if you're an Auburn, I think you
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really have to be concerned about the general direction of the program at this point.
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Yeah, I'm stunned. Did you see Freeze's comments? Yeah, after
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the game. Basically he's been recruiting. He wasn't he wasn't really involved in
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the game plan. I'm like, well, that's pretty solid. I mean,
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man, that was a That was a puzzling statement to me. Look,
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he obviously needs to be recruiting. That roster is pretty naked. He's
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doing a good job, but at the but at the end of the day,
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the portal is what he needs. Yeah, they have not performed in
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that nearly as well as I thought they would. You know, there's a
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we got a lot of Washington fans, and I always enjoy the materia.
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We got a lot of fans from the University of zero too. In Oregon.
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There's a great article in the Athletic. I don't remember when it came
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out, but I was thinking about this the other day because I've been high
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on Washington all season. Dude, we are only two seasons removed from fucking
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Jimmy Lake running Washington to a four and eight schedule that season, and Calen
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Divores got him in the National Championship tournament. And it's they did a great
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job of breaking down like how to build your roster. And I think you
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know last year Prime, you heard a lot about it because of Dion at
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Colorado. But you know Jake Spabotol a couple of years ago when he was
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at Texas State realizing he was kind of at the end of his rope.
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Remember he didn't bring a freshman in that one time. Everybody was Jucoe or
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transfer Prime. Prime got a lot of it because he was like gonna reboot
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the roster, and everybody was criticizing him one way or the other. But
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you know, and Prime got a lot of good he did. He went
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and got what he needed in this transfer portal cycle. He went to the
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trench and he got some players, which is where he was really hurting last
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year and then you look at I mean, can we go ahead and assume
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that Lane Kiffin is the wizard of the Transfer portal because that dude, I
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mean, he gets the right guys. The Rebels have taken out a gigantic
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loan. They are just betting on the come And if you look at that
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schedule, I don't know. I don't know how you don't do it next
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year with what they get if they get, because look, I will also
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tell you they're about to have to pay some guys, probably more than they're
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paying them to keep them. Sure, so if they want to get their
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quarterback back, they're gonna have to pay dark at least to me and dollars,
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and he's not making that right now. And if they want to get
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if they want to get their running back back, he's gonna be four or
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five hundred. Now I heard they were paying in four hundred. But I
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don't know what in the world he can get in the portal if you're a
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running back away and you got because that old miss line Keep ran for one
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thousand yards first Bowl game, one hundred yard rusher they've had since twenty ten,
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that kid, and I think he's first running back everard for them to
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run for one thousand's first two years. You look at what that kid's done
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behind what it was a really bad Old miss offensive line. And you watch
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them in that bowl game yesterday and they're just as shitty yesterday because they almost
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got to a QB killed. But they they literally have gone out and just
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gotten great player at the great player defensive line, edge rushers, They signed
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a really good corner from Mississippi State. I mean, they've gone out and
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they've done a great job in the portal. But man, they are spending
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some money and that's not sustainable. What they're doing is not sustainable when you're
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having to take out loans to do this. Now, if they go eleven
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and want to make a playoff next year, Old Miss fans are gonna tony
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up. But my point is is it's not sustainable when you go I've had
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these conversations and truly what they're looking for is what can you donate to sustain
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Is it three hundred dollars a month, is it one thousand dollars a month,
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is it ten thousand a month, whatever level of donation you're on,
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they need to know what you can do every year repeatedly and oh this is
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not in that's they're not in that. But they don't care. They're just
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going balls to the wall to try to win now because they see an opportunity,
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and I see an opportunity. I mean, everybody listens this podcast knows
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I have no love loss for Roxford, and I am telling you they're nuts
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to not be doing what they're doing. They're gonna be damn good next year.
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And that schedule is honestly, it might go twelve and of them good,
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they're gonna go ten and two if they're average, I mean, if
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they have some hiccups along the way. Their best non conference game is Actuate
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Force. They're gonna gas can't wake Forest. I mean, that ain't like
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a road game in the SECAID. That's gonna be like spring game. I
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mean, they're gonna have thirty five, forty thousand people there. They're gonna
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go in there and kill them. Early in the year, they played Middle
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Tennessee, Perlman, Georgia Southern. I mean their hardest games are all at
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home to get OEU at home, they get Georgia at home, they're at
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bat Rouge and act Games was really the only two hard road games and getting
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some state at home, a big rival. I mean, you gotta be
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kidding. I mean they win at bat Rouge that that team may go undefeated.
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I tell what you if you're a fan of or if you're trying to
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keep up with the portal, I think the best website I found is the
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portal report dot com. We don't have any affiliation with anybody, but it's
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that one I showed you that's got the Sequel search engine on it. It's
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really nice. You can get in there and you know, see who's out
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there, who's available, where they're going. They're star ratings, I mean,
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and you still got players that are jumping in this thing yesterday. I
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mean starters that have had made big contributions to teams that are still jumping in
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this thing. And so yeah, it's an interesting time college football. I
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have enjoyed the bowl games, I am. They have made me hungrier for
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next year when we go to the twelve team playoff. I'm pretty excited about
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that. But there's been some decent games here and there, and I think
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tomorrow's slate, January first, I think could be pretty good. And I'm
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looking forward to the four college football semifinal games as we get ready to go
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into the Natty. I've got a couple of Natty future tickets I'm pretty excited
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about. But we got five games to break down. I got the garbage
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dog out here. We got five games to break down looking at what we
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got from here, Scott, and so I think we dive in and see
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if we can't find some nuggets on how to play these out. What's your
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thoughts, man, I'm excited about it. I actually like all five of
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these games. I have a firm opinion on all five games, which really
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the ball games I went through a little heater, but man, ball games
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are a crapshoot right now. Oh yeah, I mean, but there are
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so many guys. If you're not close to the program, you don't know
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if your team's going to show up. I mean, I know kirviis Mark
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was talking, oh, we want to send these seniors out the right way.
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And they really didn't have that many opt outs. I mean, they
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really didn't. And you think, man, they're gonna come, but you
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don't see them coming out and hanging. I mean, because they could have
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wun seventy on them. You don't see a sixty three to three. I
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know the FSU roster is completely decip made it with injury, he's and guys
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opting out, but still, I mean, they won't be there, the
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exact opposite, but all they had no desire to be there. Roster was
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in better shape than the Maryland roster, and they hit gas team. I
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mean it, unless you're close to the program, it's harder. It's hard
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gambling in some of these games. But these teams have got in the portal,
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so I'm kind of excited. I mean this, And obviously for the
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championship teas, nobody relevant is gone, so we'll get a real read on
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those. Let's jump in first one. It's got the requiect, the reclyct
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rely quest apparently I can't say that made up word. I'll be played in
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Tampa. Always loves seeing college football games at Raymond James Stadium because it makes
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so much sense to have a college football game in a stadium with a giant,
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fucking pirate ship. It gets me excited all the way around. We
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got LSHU in Wisconsin playing in this one. Line here has been pretty steady.
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LSU minus ten in this one that you've got from the standpoint in the
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over unders at fifty seven. Diving into this one, You've got an LSU
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team that's been one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Jaden Daniels
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the Heisman Trophy winning quarterback, which good for him to win the Heisman,
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that was the right vote. He's opted out, which I would too,
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getting ready for the NFL draft. Mean that guy, Think about that guy.
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He's two and a half years removed from leaving Arizona State and his teammates
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fucking dog custing him on Twitter, putting videos out to win in the Heisman.
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And he's probably gonna text those guys and be like, Hey, I
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hope y'all enjoy y'all's construction jobs next year when I'm in the NFL. Look,
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he's had a pretty good run since he left, so anyway, but
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he won't be playing. But you got nes Myers playing. But nes Myer's
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put a lot of time in. He's got some reps last year, he's
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got some reps this year. He's definitely gonna be competing for the starting job
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for this l U squad next year. And Milik Nighbors supposedly is going to
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play, And they say that he may come out of the game if he
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sets the LSU in season record in that one. So we'll have to see
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with that one. Wisconsin, on the other hand, Braylan Allen has opted
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out for this game to get ready for the end of the draft. Chez
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Mlusy's been hurt for a while at this point, and then they've got several
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other key opt outs in this spot. And so when you start to look
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at this game and break it down, I'm leading LSU minus the ten.
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I think you'll get a full effort out of that roster. It's in pretty
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good shape. I've been pretty vocal that I think the Big Ten this year
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was overrated, and I don't think that the I don't think Wisconsin was.
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Wisconsin hasn't been good all season for the most part, and much less consistent,
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and so I have a hard time believing that they're going to step up
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in this spot and put something together. I think they did a hard job
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of doing some recruiting, trying to make sure they could lock in a good
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high school class. Because this is still a new coaching staff. They needed
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some portal transfers to come in. You know, they brought I mean Phil
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Longo was here two weeks ago. Yeah, yeah, I mean Longo was
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here two weeks ago making sure he was locking up his quarterback that's coming from
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here and so, and I love Fickle and Longo, and I hope they
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do really good things at Wisconsin because frankly, it's one of my favorite teams
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in the Big Ten to cheer for. But I just don't know the state
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of mind that this team's gonna come in with. I think you'll get some
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hard fight, but I think this LSU team wants to finish on a strong
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note, even with NUSS quarterback. And I'll to ten with LSU here and
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feel comfortable about it. Yeah, I just think with you, the roster
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is in better shape. Here's the deal with us. He's been serving his
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time, as you've mentioned, waiting his time. LSU needs to find out
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is he the guy and or or do they hit the portal. I mean,
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this is a football guy's dad's a quarterbacks coach in the NFL. He's
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obviously a guy who understands the game. He just needs to go make it
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happen. And this roster, being mostly intact, is pretty good. If
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I thought Wisconsin could score it all the over would be an obvious play in
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this game because LSU's defense is awful. I mean it's been awful all year.
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Pretty much anybody can score on them, but everybody except Missippi State that
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was. But but but I don't have the love for that that I probably
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should, I do think unless you gonna cover this change just because I think
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the rosters better. So I like yllus you here's what Yeah us, She's
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getting all the money, all the tickets. So you got the public,
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uh, pretty much leaning on the favorites, which that's not an odd situation.
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Moving on, Scottie the liberty away. I mentioned that Wisconsin having a
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lot of guys in the portal making no mistake, and I want to get
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this. I think a lot of those guys were put in the portal.
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Yeah, I think they there were problems. These They weren't guys that bought
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in whatever it is. When you see that many guys from a program like
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Wisconsin that's got a new coaching staff, a lot of those guys will put
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in the portal. They're not choosing to leave, their being forced to leave.
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Sure, and that may help their psyche. We may see. This
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is the crazy part about ball games. You may see a different wisconsintine.
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They may have gotten they may have taken the thirds out of punchball. You
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just don't know. That's the thing. But I like LSU on this bet
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too. Next game, let's go the Festival. Liber are a god.
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Speaking of the Festa Bowl, did you watch any of the the Fenway Bowl?
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A little bit with a BC in SMU So, I don't no one's
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gonna remember this, but I remember years ago. Maybe I was like high
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school, so twenty thirty years ago, thirty years ago, they played the
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Festival and the field was in terrible condition, like every time somebody would cut
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it was blowing the grass out. You're seeing sand fly everywhere. The Liberty
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Bowl literally looked like a golf round, like between not the liberty of the
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Fenway Bowl. Between every stoppage of play, it was like greenskeepers were running
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out there and putting the green sand down where you had a divot from where
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you hit a really hard seven iron or something in a fairway. That field
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was in the shittiest condition. Quit playing football on baseball stadiums. It's a
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terrible idea. It's a terrible idea, and nobody from Dallas Texas wants to
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go to Boston and the winter and play in the rain, sleep whatever the
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hell that was that they were, No, yeah, all, no,
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no, you should play very if you're playing a bowl game north of the
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Mason Dixon line, it needs to be in a dome in my part of
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opinion, because just the weather, the chances that the weather's gonna be good
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are just so slim and so anyway, and I like watching. I mean,
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that's why I love the Rose Bowls, when the time, when the
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game gets played and everything else. But sorry about that little off charts,
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but anyway, Fist of Bowl. Oregon comes in here laying seventeen against the
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Liberty Team. Liberty team's undefeated Jamie Chadwell has done a heck of a job
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with this Liberty squad. They've been roster's been pretty well intact coming into this.
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Oregon comes in here laying seventeen. Of course they just we just watch
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them lose to Washington. There are only two losses on the season, both
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times to Washington. Lines at seventeen over under heres at sixty eight. Looks
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like most of the tickets and the money are on the Oregon side, which
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is not surprising. I don't really have an opinion on this game. Seventeen
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is a lot to but if Oregon comes in with any bit of focus,
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this Liberty roster is completely outmatched. I totally agree. Look, Liberty has
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to run the football, and it's Oregon's defense pretty good run defense, so
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I expect that to be a problem. Seventeen is a lot, but hey,
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I thought twenty one and a half was a large It was twenty two.
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It kicked off with Georgia yesterday. Boy was I wrong. So you
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know, I'm like, whoa, you know, it's a lot. Wasn't
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nearly enough as it turned out, could have been sixty. There could have
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been fifty nine and a half and you cover, but I was a little
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off on that. I'm gonna take the seventeen here. I just think Oregon's
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gonna be ready to play. You're going out west. This is obviously a
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big reward for Liberty, you know, being in this situation. Playing on
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the Fiesta Bowl for a school like Liberty is always a big deal. But
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Liberties actually had more people hit the portal than and more starters opt out for
18:00
portal and things like that than Oregon has, which is kind of a kind
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of a surprise to me, but I guess not also because you got Liberty
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guys who were leaving to go get paid. Yeah, I mean that's the
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bottom line. And so I like Oregon here. I think knicks playing is
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the difference. I think that defense is going to hold Liberty at bay.
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But I think knicks playing is a big deal in these kinds of games,
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and I think I think they dominate this game. I would lean that way.
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Yuh, So I will probably sit and watch this one, but I'm
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interested to see what kind of effort. But if I think you're right,
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if Oregon comes out, I just can't see this being the two lane USC
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scenario from last year. And so that's where I would lean with Oregon here,
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and so I would lean their way with I'll have a play next week.
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Freaking up, before we go, can we visit the USC game for
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a minute for every NFL GM, Do you know how much better they looked
18:55
with their back back up quarterback? Good lord, it's amazing when the quarterbacks
18:59
actually trying to play quarterback instead of playing the football. How good that team
19:03
looked. I was as a major red flag. If you're an NFL guy,
19:11
you selling your franchise to get that, dude, you're an idiot.
19:15
He's got lots of question marks. Well, and if you as much about
19:19
leadership as it is ability, well, if you're trying to bet the NFL
19:22
currently, it's difficult because it's almost like you're trying to figure out who's playing
19:26
bowl games because I think almost I think sixteen backup NFL quarterbacks will start today,
19:32
and these are teams that are in playoff contention. So building a quarterback
19:36
roster in the NFL is hard as shit. So I can't imagine. I
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mean, this is a really good quarterback class that'll be coming into us.
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I think we're going to do some shows as we get into, maybe even
19:45
doing some college football handicapping for the draft. But this is a really good
19:49
quarterback class. So I don't think it's one of those that it's Caleb Williams
19:53
or Bust for the number one pick. I think there's several players in this
19:57
draft that you could look at to say that this guy could be a franchise
20:00
quarterback for US. And you see how easy it is to miss, because
20:03
if you look at Carolina and you watch them play this year with Bryce Young
20:07
and all, then you got to be questioning is this guy gonna be able
20:11
to carry a franchise or not? And C J. Stroud at Texas,
20:15
look, you know, for the Texans looks fantastic. You know, you
20:18
take out well they do. But I mean look at Justin Fields from Ohio
20:22
State. That guy was awesome when he was there, so much fun to
20:25
watch. And in the Bears system, I mean, he looks like RG.
20:27
He looks like he's three years away from being RG three in the sense
20:30
that he can't do much but run. He can, He's got some rockets,
20:33
but the physicality of his game is gonna get worn out. And so
20:37
I don't know. I mean, it's a it's an interesting dynamic trying to
20:40
be Trying to find an NFL quarterback has got to be one of the hardest
20:44
jobs I can imagine. So anyway, Tennessee, Iowa, I'm excited for
20:48
this one. Iowa getting five over under here in a bowl game. Ready
20:52
for this one. Thirty five and a half is where we laid here and
20:56
eighty percent of the money is on the under in this which makes sense.
21:00
Tennessee. I think a lot of people, you know, if they just
21:03
are casually looking in, they're gonna remember the high flying Tennessee team from last
21:07
year. This was a completely different Tennessee team this year. They were allied
21:11
a lot more on the run. They've got a fantastic defensive line. They
21:15
leaned on this defense quite a bit this year. The biggest opt out in
21:18
this game is gonna be Milton. He's not gonna play, but they're bringing
21:22
in Dylan Reala. Is that the kid's name, the freshman that's the starter.
21:26
Is that the kid that? Yeah? I think that's right. No,
21:27
he's the kid going to Nebraska. But anyway, it's the true freshman
21:33
quarterback that was their big time recruit will be coming into this one. I
21:36
leaned big ten here. This Iowa defense is gross man, and I think
21:41
you get a good showing from this French squad. I always been good in
21:45
bowl games over the years. I like well a lot here ABOUPI can that.
21:48
I'm stunned that they're not the favorite. I mean, clearly Tennessee's roster
21:56
is getting love here for just being more talented. But this See team has
22:00
not been good. They've had to play really good defense to stay in football
22:07
games. Uh, that's what happened to them in the Bama game. They
22:10
simply couldn't score h and the defense couldn't hold up to keep it tight.
22:15
Bama got away from them. I don't know how in the world they're going
22:18
to score very many on this Iowa team. I mean, I know the
22:21
over unders thirty five and a half. They're going to fight the phone booth,
22:25
and that is made directly for Iowa. I like them here. That
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you're getting points is a huge deal. If you've got some walls, you
22:34
can go ahead and take money on because I think they may win this game
22:38
straight up, but I love them getting fired. I like Iowa a lot
22:41
here because I think this is a seventeen to fourteen, fourteen to ten,
22:45
you know, twenty one, twenty something like that kind of game when it's
22:49
gonna be tight. I will be shocked if it goes over candidly, so,
22:53
I mean, I think it's a seventeen to fourteen kind of game.
22:56
You get you a seven point teaser and you could tease LSU down to three
23:02
in Iowa up to plus twelve. What a fun ticket that would be to
23:06
sit around on us tomorrow morning just drinking bloody Mary's going, Oh, these
23:11
are cross bets. I'm gonna sit and watch all these things because nothing screams
23:15
good time other than cheering for an under, because I know because I do
23:18
it all the fucking time. So anyway, yeah, Eileen, Iowa getting
23:22
plus five. There's a lot of all the money tickets mainly are on Tennessee.
23:26
I think that's gonna be a lot of public money. I won't be
23:29
surprised one bit. I would tell it. If you're going to bet Iowa,
23:32
I would do it now because I would think if the sharp money comes
23:33
in, it's gonna come on the Hawkeyes. And so it'll be interesting to
23:37
see how this one goes. But that's where I'm at. Next games,
23:41
Gottie, Alabama Michigan matchup one and a half is the line here, Bama
23:47
getting one and a half. Bama's getting all the money in the tickets over
23:49
unders forty five. You're seeing all the money and the tickets come to Bama.
23:52
I just coming to the over at forty five, which I think is
23:56
kind of interesting. These are two interesting teams to me. Michigan, obviously,
24:00
you know your head coach has been suspended for half of the season.
24:03
He missed six of their twelve games or thirteen games with suspension, there's now
24:08
talks that he's hired an agent and he could be looking at going to the
24:11
NFL next year, which I think that's probably a foe going conclusion because I
24:15
think the NCAA is going to try to exact whatever power they have left to
24:19
in this situation. Which that's a conversation for a different time. But this
24:22
Michigan team, I thought's done really good bullying football, bullying playing bully football.
24:26
If most of the season they did it against a Penn State team,
24:30
they got all you know, galvanized to do that. They stumbled their way
24:34
into the you know, got through the Ohio State game, and then have
24:40
played really good, solid football season long. This Alabama team was a team
24:44
that people threw in the garbage after Week three when they had lost to Texas
24:48
and then went down and played South Florida in the rain, brought in the
24:51
other two quarterbacks that couldn't get anything done. They've rolled back to Milroe,
24:55
and you've watched Milroe progress as the season's gone on, to be a leader,
24:59
to be a player, to you know, take this team to higher
25:03
levels, and the defense has started to step up as well. I'm rolling
25:07
with the dog here, man, give me Bama. And it's the public
25:10
side of this game. But I'm just gonna play it on the money line
25:12
and get plus one oh five. I think Bama. I think Bama.
25:15
You're not gonna be able to bully this team. In my opinion, I
25:18
think they want to get in a slug fest and Saving's like, okay,
25:21
bring it on. And the other thing too, is you're getting a fully
25:23
focused Bama team. We've talked about this for years. You give Saban three
25:29
weeks to get ready for a game, or you give Sabin that first made
25:32
for TV game. Very rarely has Bama been, you know, not shown
25:37
up for those types of games. Have they not shown up for Bowl games?
25:38
Yeah? But have they not shown up for big games like this?
25:42
No, give me Bama plus the points, give me Bama on the money
25:45
line. I think Bama beats Michigan and puts Michigan at home. That's my
25:48
opinion. You know, it's hard not to go back in your head and
25:53
just think about, you know, how much the sec in these kinds of
25:59
games just plowed the Big ten. I mean just plow them. I mean
26:03
going back to Ohio State and Florida and when when TJ. Ginn ran the
26:08
opening kickoff back and then got full gas can for the next fifty nine and
26:12
a half minutes. That first Urban Meyer Natty at Florida. You look,
26:18
I mean, they've really gotten drilled. Urban Meyers, Ohio State team beating
26:22
Alabama's. The only time they haven't gotten whipped is the bottom is the bottom
26:26
line, and that was a great Ohio State team. I don't as much
26:30
as I love this Michigan team, they don't have the I just the Big
26:37
ten is not. They just do not look impressive. And they did find
26:42
a way to be the Ohio State which didn't really surprise me, but did
26:48
surprise me a little bit. I mean, you know that game's rivalry,
26:52
you know, it's the way it's gonna be. McCarthy has got to play
26:55
well if they're gonna win this ball. Yeah, looked good in a while.
26:59
Now I'm not. I'm not saying the Michigan's is gonna have fifty yards
27:03
rushing. I'm not saying that they're not gonna line up and just run right
27:07
over them for three hundred yards. It's not happening. No, they're not.
27:11
They're gonna make him beat them, and can he do it. And
27:15
can those wide receivers do it against really good cornerbacks and a really good defensive
27:19
backfield. That's the other thing too, that's the ball game. Yeah,
27:25
And I like that being in Nick Saban's hands when it comes down to dv's
27:30
being the guys that have got to make the plays. I just feel like
27:33
they're gonna be able to get it done well Bama. And Bama's got the
27:36
two best cornerbacks left in the country that are playing again again this Michigan team
27:41
here, and unless you're a big Michigan fan, you can't tell me the
27:45
name of a wide receiver on Bama's team that's gonna blow the top off this
27:48
defense. Both of these Bama cornerbacks are gonna be first first day, first
27:52
three round draft picks to go into the NFL. And you can put them
27:56
out there on an island in the first round. Yeah, you can put
28:00
them. You can put them out there on the island, and then you
28:02
can let the defensive line and the trench go to work. And I think
28:04
it'll be a battle in here. I expect for this to be a really
28:07
good game. I think Bama wins this game by six, six or seven
28:11
somewhere in there, and I see it being a game where he's gonna have
28:17
a twenty eight twenty one style game and Bama will have just kind of been
28:22
ahead the whole time. And that that's my prediction for what we're gonna get
28:25
out of this one. I stand by what I have said all year long.
28:29
When you play mill Roe, Michigan has got to understand how fast he
28:33
is. Yeah, when he gets when he gets to the corner, gets
28:37
the ball in his hand, and it generally has taken teams a little while
28:41
to figure that out. That kid's lightning with the football. And look,
28:47
that's I'm not Look, Michigan's good and they're talented. And Jim Harbaugh is
28:51
a great football coach too. This probably is two of the very best coaches
28:56
in the country. I think Klein de Boor is great football coach too,
29:00
based on his resume. You look at his record. It's fascinating. Now,
29:03
don't mean's just at Washington. I mean the guy's been on some great
29:06
It's been on some great staffs. But I digress. We'll get to them
29:08
in a minute. I think Harball's a great football coach too, So I
29:11
think it's a great coaching matchup. You know, I like Jim Harball's football
29:17
coach, love what he's done at Michigan and bringing Michigan back to what they've
29:21
done. I just don't know that they have the horsepower to beat this team,
29:26
even though this isn't the traditional Bama teams. I think the key for
29:30
Bama is how much do they let Milroe run the football and use him as
29:36
a runner, really run some spread. They did a lot of it against
29:40
Georgia a lot, and if they will do it in this ballgame, they
29:44
got a chance to really separate themselves because they have so much talent around him.
29:51
The wide receivers at BAM are highly underrated. Yeah, they've gotten better
29:53
too. The season's going on a lot. Well, it's because Millro has
29:57
gotten better throwing the football, and so I think they've got they got some
30:03
guys that are game changers at wide receiver and mill Row if they can get
30:08
him on the edge and get him running that football kind of in those spread
30:11
situations, I think Michigan really does have a hard time. Michigan needs to
30:15
get the lead and chew this game up. They need a leap. They
30:21
get behind and McCarty has to do things out of his comfort zone boom,
30:25
and they might get gas, can't. I agree if Michigan gets down by
30:30
I don't know. Let's say Michigan gets down by more than a score,
30:33
more than eight, and they can't turn it pretty quick. I think you
30:37
could literally live bet it and you could take a if you could still get
30:41
an Obama line at like minus four at that point or something minus three,
30:47
I would pound it live because I don't think they can play from behind very
30:49
well in the spot. I think Macarthy will make a mistake. I still
30:52
can't get the TCU game out of my head last year bad They blew that
30:57
game over thinking what to do just line up on the damn football well and
31:03
it looks oh they were And if they come out like this on Monday,
31:10
I'm telling you they're gonna be down fourteen before they can blink, and they're
31:15
gonna be like, oh, what in the world going on? And it
31:17
won't be a furious comeback like that. They will get into trouble throwing the
31:22
football down the field on this defense. Yeah, they're going to be able
31:26
to drop back into that, into those defenses where he'd roll in the coverage
31:30
and he really confuse him. So I think this is gonna be a fascinating
31:33
ball game. Do I think Michigan can win the game? Yes? Do
31:37
I think they will? Know? That's the bottom line. Next game,
31:40
Scottie, Texas and Washington two teams. You and I were highland coming into
31:44
the season. We predicted both with win their conferences. I actually had Texas
31:48
making it this both these teams making it this far. I think we have
31:52
both loved both these teams all year. Absolutely, defensive line of Texas is
31:57
better than I thought it was gonna. Defensive line at Texas, I'm gonna
32:00
call it the number one defensive line in the country. You cannot run into
32:05
this defensive line. It is fantastic. I've gone back and watched some games
32:07
this season and they've been good. So let's break this one down. Texas
32:13
is laying four in this spot to Washington's getting four tech Washington's getting most of
32:17
the money and the tickets over under here is at sixty three. Money line
32:22
for Texas is minus one seventy five money line for Washington plus one to forty
32:25
five. You can still get a Washington six and a half to one ticket
32:29
to win the Natty if you think this team's actually got a shot. Here's
32:32
my breakdown of this one, and you tell me what you think. I
32:34
think from a Texas perspective, I think Sark is a fantastic game planner.
32:38
One thing I noticed from going back and looking at game flow and this one
32:42
is the early parts of the game. Sark's definitely got scripted out and Texas
32:47
has come out hot early in a lot of I mean and then a lot
32:50
of these games this season. Viewers, if you get a consistent owers,
32:54
he can manage that offense and he's got some playmakers that can really make things
32:59
happen. And so the Texas offense is fascinating to me. It hinges on
33:04
the fact that viewers can get it going, because if he can, the
33:07
run game will open itself up and go from there. And flip side on
33:09
Washington's defense, this unit plays with a ton of guts defensive line. They
33:15
play aggressive. You saw that if you watched him play through the Oregon game.
33:19
But this team is susceptible to give up some points, and that's where
33:22
I think Texas could come in and exploit this team a little bit. Now
33:24
on the flip side, I love Kaylen de Bor and I love his game
33:29
planning as well, and I think that you're they're going to struggle to run
33:32
into this Texas trench. But I think you can big time exploit Texas on
33:37
the back end and the receiving corps, even the tight end and the running
33:42
backs coming out of the backfield. From Washington, I think you're gonna give
33:45
problems to the if the offensive line can hold up, because Pennix is explosive.
33:51
I think you're gonna see a shit ton of big chunk plays from Washington
33:53
in this one, because that's where I would go with them from there,
33:57
and I think Debor can break it down and get him. I think he's
34:00
a fantastic tactician in this one. What are your thoughts that that I've seen
34:04
all week on actually any Bowl season, any game all year, is Texas
34:12
gives up some of the highest yards passing outside the hash marks. You know
34:19
what the number one team in the country is throwing outside of the hashmarks,
34:22
Washington. That is a huge statistic and a stat that Texas's got to fix.
34:31
And if they do that, what's that gonna do. They're going to
34:35
have to open up the middle of the field, which is going to put
34:38
those running back and look, Johnson's a really good running back. He catches
34:43
football. Everybody forgets call lotdown balls playing for Mike Leech. You know,
34:46
don't don't don't underestimate his ability to catch football and run with it after he
34:52
does it. Uh. I think this is at first, I think Texas
34:54
gonna win this game. There's going to be a bunch of points. Score.
34:59
They better be ready to score thirty to thirty five if they're planning to
35:01
win, because I think Washington's going to score thirty or thirty five. So
35:06
I think this is gonna be a really high scoring game. I think it's
35:08
gonna be a great game to watch. I like Washington here, straight up.
35:13
I like them all year. I like them here. I think you're
35:16
gonna see Washington and Obama playing for the Natty. I think Bama is a
35:22
much better matchup for Texas. So if they win this ball game, I
35:25
think Texas gonna win the National Championship. But I'll that's the bottom line.
35:30
I think that this is a bad matchup for them. The weaknesses that Texas
35:37
has are some of the strengths that Washington has. I also think this offensive
35:42
line, which is a really good unit. The Joe Moore Award winning offensive
35:45
line in the country is sticking. Damn tired of hearing how much how good
35:51
this Texas. And let me tell you something. Offensive linemen are nasty.
35:53
I don't know how many you know the good offensive lines are edgy. They're
35:59
nasty guys. They're on the verge and dirty. I mean that is a
36:00
compliment. Oh yeah, that's not. That's how great offensive linemen played.
36:06
They got that little bit of just screw you in them. They get that
36:09
grip in their teeth. And I guarantee you this team's got it because that's
36:14
all they've heard about all for literally three weeks. Let me tell you they're
36:19
gonna be motivated to come out to play. I'm fascinated and see how that
36:22
matchup wins. Because if they win strength, they're gonna win this football game.
36:28
They're gonna win it comfortably. I read a fantastic article the other day
36:31
about the culture at Washington that Debor and the staff have put in place there,
36:36
And you know, you look at this team. They weren't picked to
36:38
win the Pac twelve. They weren't picked to beat Oregon the first time.
36:43
They were did one point the second time. Beaten them. They were totally
36:47
disrespected in that game and just like kept their mouths shut. It's like,
36:52
let's go through here. And they beat the ship up. I mean,
36:54
I know the score. They they beat Washing I mean Oregon in that last
36:59
game. Yeah, girl, And I mean, and you just but it's
37:02
been quiet and so I love the culture of the squad and I love the
37:07
grittiness of it. Uh, the athleticism and and you know, I you
37:12
know Penni's another guy you talk about. He was at Indiana, had that
37:15
great COVID season when Klen de Boor was there, no one thought much of
37:19
him. He gets to Washington, He's gonna end up in the NFL.
37:22
He's got to being left handed. It's kind of a weird motion for me
37:24
to watch. But the guy's good. Mark. I also think one thing
37:29
that people are missing in this football game is look at how many really good
37:35
quarterbacks that Washington defense has played this year. Quarterback of Arizona was great.
37:39
Yeah, they switch that kid was really good. They played usc they played
37:45
nicks Weiss, they played Washington State, they played Angola le at Oregon State.
37:52
You gotta be kidding me. Yeah, they played a great you know
37:57
what this team's made of the city. I mean they in Loganastan, Michigan
38:01
State wasn't very good. That's a really nice road win early in the year
38:06
that set them off and running because that team hadn't mailed it in at that
38:09
point. That this is a this is a team that you know what you're
38:14
gonna get. Let's not they also play the Utah you know, let's not.
38:19
Let's not over estimate. This thing's battle tested. And I think every
38:23
bit as much or more so than Texas is yours is not gonna be anything
38:29
they hadn't seen before. I agree. And the great athlete and a good
38:32
player, and they got great skill positions. This is not gonna shock that.
38:38
This isn't just gonna blow them away. They played really talented teams with
38:42
really good quarterbacks multiple times this year, and so I think that helps.
38:46
That's another reason I really like this team, and I think people are overlooking
38:51
it that this defense has played some of the best quarterbacks in this country and
38:55
have have held up and gone thirteen and oh really, it's hard to go
39:00
undefeated them. Neither one of these teams were nobody nobody, but Michigan was
39:05
good enough to do it. Besides, you know, Florida State was,
39:07
but I keep it a little bit different deal. So, uh, I
39:12
think I think people are really disrespecting how good this Washington team is. No,
39:16
Washington's undefeated, They're thirteen and oh in this one. No, that's
39:20
what I'm saying. I'm saying it's really hurt and Michigan and Cism and Bama
39:25
isn't you know, it's you know, I think teams are looking at this
39:30
and I look at these teams, and to me, Washington is as good
39:36
as anyone. Their key to me to win this football games, have a
39:39
wealth, they can stop the run. Yeah, no, I agree,
39:43
And so I'm leaning Washington. I got a couple of bets in this one.
39:45
I'm gonna take a unit, I'm gonna cut it in half, and
39:49
I'm gonna bet the over in the first quarter at thirteen and a half.
39:52
And then I'm also going to bet a uh the other half of that unit,
39:54
and I'm gonna put it on the over in the first half at thirty
39:58
one and a half. Because, like I said that, I think both
40:00
of these teams come out and I think the game planning you're gonna see some
40:07
I think where this game is one is who makes the adjustments as the game
40:10
rolls on, because I think both of these offenses can put it up and
40:14
they're both, but I think they're both susceptible. I can see two touchdowns
40:16
taking place in the first quarter here, because I think somebody's going to try
40:20
to get explosive right out of the gate and try to get this thing rolling
40:22
for him. And so that's where I like it. But I like you,
40:25
Doug, give me the four, give me you dub on the money
40:28
line. That's where I'm gonna roll with this one. I saw one of
40:30
our listeners posting he's a Washington fan, and he had a pretty long thread
40:35
on this game. It was and it was interesting. But the most interesting
40:37
part sart I forgot that the ball game was against Washington last year when he
40:43
lost his mind. When the kid got I forgot about that. You know,
40:47
how much does Sarks pasted with Washington impact him in this ball game.
40:54
That's something Washington doesn't have to worry about. That's the bowlder doesn't have to
40:58
worry. There is no there's nothing for him to worry about. Are their
41:01
demons in the closet? You know? And that is an interesting question.
41:07
I mean, I know it's a Washington fan posing it, but I still
41:09
think that is intriguing because, look, there is any doubt he was overly
41:13
hyphen for that game. The way you responded to what was nothing, Yeah,
41:19
I mean, and I think the other thing with Washington. You know,
41:22
I listened to the I listened to a lot of the press conference when
41:25
they had the media days over there. You can tell that team's loose.
41:29
I mean, they've kind of been the underdog all the way through this season.
41:31
They're coming in here the other Unless you're a Pac twelve fan or just
41:36
a college football junkie like us, you couldn't name anybody on Washington's team,
41:40
and so you know, I think they're coming in loose. They're looking good
41:45
here. I like you dubbed through this one. I think if you Dub
41:47
gets to the Natty and we get an Alabama U dub national championship game,
41:53
I mean, I'll be okay because I got tickets on both of them,
41:55
but I'll give you I'll give you Dub a nod in that one too.
42:01
I mean, I think this is a really good team that's just it's been
42:06
over I mean, it sounds crazy that they've overlooked going into that, you
42:08
know, with the final four. But I just think this is a really
42:12
good football team. The fact twelve was a really good lead, and I
42:15
think people are missing that that to go undefeated with everything they had to play,
42:21
because again go back to the quarterbacks I just mentioned. To go undefeated
42:24
in that and against those types of players repeatedly, this is something that is
42:30
a statement in my mind. Yeah, so no, And I think Piix
42:34
was hurt for part of the season too, and I think that's the reason
42:37
we saw some of that line when they struggled with to run. They had
42:38
some they were banged up on that defensive line. They're healthy now. Yeah,
42:42
So again that's the reason I say that's the key where they had trouble
42:45
and where they almost lost teams could run the football on them. If Texas
42:49
can run the football, that's a huge deal in this ball game. And
42:52
they will see flip side, what is how does that offensive line block that
42:58
defensive line from tech says, which is a really really good offensive line for
43:01
Washington. I think those are the keys. How well is Texas running and
43:06
how well can they control the line of scrimmage on the defensive side of the
43:08
football. I think those are the two keys of the ball game. I
43:12
agree, folks. That being said, we'll sign off for this one.
43:14
We'll be back at you after we find out who's playing for the national championship
43:17
and see if we can't figure out and squeeze one more winner out of the
43:21
season before we get going. Hit us up on Twitter if you got any
43:23
questions, give us a share. Like all those things, we love them.
43:27
Enjoy the feedback, enjoy the enjoy the semifinals, and we'll talk to
43:30
you next week.