Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Crypto Breakout?📈with Tim Warren Technical Analysis
Transcript
- 0:00Speaker 1: Let's get into the market today. We could be on
- 0:02Speaker 1: a pump, we could be on a retracement. Well, we'll
- 0:04Speaker 1: break it all down for you. It's going to be
- 0:06Speaker 1: a good one, so stick around for that. I do
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- 0:41Speaker 1: Let's get into it today. I want to bring in
- 0:42Speaker 1: Tim Warren, coming in from Tim Warren Trades over on YouTube.
- 0:47Speaker 2: How are you man, I'm doing good, Paul, good to
- 0:49Speaker 2: be back on the show today.
- 0:50Speaker 1: I'm looking at your video array here on your on
- 0:52Speaker 1: your YouTube channel. You got one coming up that says
- 0:56Speaker 1: a big fake out today. Yeah, so that'll be good
- 0:59Speaker 1: by the time we air this that we'll have launched
- 1:02Speaker 1: and we're going to talk all about that stuff. So
- 1:03Speaker 1: it's gonna be good, yes, and getting into this, make
- 1:07Speaker 1: sure and followed Tim over there, Hey listen, following him
- 1:09Speaker 1: also over on AX at Tim Warren Trades as well,
- 1:12Speaker 1: he hits up right here. February PCE came in at
- 1:14Speaker 1: point three month over month and the two point eight
- 1:17Speaker 1: year over year, slightly beating the forecast. So that was
- 1:20Speaker 1: somewhat good. But many people are kind of looking at
- 1:23Speaker 1: this right now, Tim and saying, just wait, we're not
- 1:27Speaker 1: there yet. And that of course is you know, with
- 1:30Speaker 1: some of the things that are happening around now, we're
- 1:32Speaker 1: dealing with energy costs all that. Do you what do
- 1:35Speaker 1: you think is going to happen on the next CPI
- 1:37Speaker 1: number coming in?
- 1:39Speaker 2: The next CPI number. They've been the recent ones have
- 1:43Speaker 2: been bad. Obviously today wasn't terrible, but I'm expecting it
- 1:47Speaker 2: more than likely to be around expectation, maybe a little
- 1:51Speaker 2: higher at the end of the day. Like we know,
- 1:55Speaker 2: we know how easily manipulated these things are. I mean,
- 1:58Speaker 2: there was just a person and let go within the
- 2:01Speaker 2: last year and some change that was clearly you know,
- 2:04Speaker 2: manipulating data, and you look at that you're like, oh,
- 2:07Speaker 2: how terrible that is. Well, it's like, well, no, no,
- 2:09Speaker 2: she just proved how easy it is to do and
- 2:11Speaker 2: get away with it for a long time. So you
- 2:14Speaker 2: kind of get to yourself to a position. I asked
- 2:16Speaker 2: my community the other day, you know, I told my
- 2:18Speaker 2: communities to the day. Rather, I've stopped asking the question
- 2:22Speaker 2: am I being lied to? And I now ask myself
- 2:25Speaker 2: the question, why are they lying to me? I know
- 2:28Speaker 2: they're lying to me. Everything is a lie at this
- 2:30Speaker 2: point on the internet. So now it's more important if
- 2:32Speaker 2: you want to make money, you need to start asking
- 2:34Speaker 2: why they're lying. If you can understand why they're lying,
- 2:36Speaker 2: you might be able to see into their motives a
- 2:38Speaker 2: little bit sooner than others.
- 2:39Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a key one here. Speaking of
- 2:42Speaker 1: the lying that's been going on, We've got President Trump
- 2:46Speaker 1: calling on FED chair Pal to cut interest rates before
- 2:50Speaker 1: the next FED meaning that's coming up here in the
- 2:52Speaker 1: next couple of weeks. Is this gonna Is this just
- 2:58Speaker 1: like a standard tweet that he puts out on true
- 3:01Speaker 1: social just to give you know, sure Pal a hard time.
- 3:05Speaker 2: What do you think, Yes, I honestly, I think you
- 3:08Speaker 2: know I don't want to. I don't want to say
- 3:10Speaker 2: Jerome Powell has done a perfect job, and I don't
- 3:12Speaker 2: want to say he's done a good job. But at
- 3:14Speaker 2: the same time, there is this level and this is
- 3:17Speaker 2: all politics you need. If things aren't one hundred percent
- 3:20Speaker 2: going your way, you need a scapegoat and so constantly
- 3:23Speaker 2: putting out too late pale. You need to cut rates.
- 3:25Speaker 2: Donald Trump knows he's not gonna cut rates, but he
- 3:28Speaker 2: needs that scapegoat to say, well, it wasn't my fault,
- 3:30Speaker 2: it was Jerome Powell's fault. And now let me get
- 3:32Speaker 2: my guy in. I We're gonna start cutting rates and
- 3:33Speaker 2: not everything's gonna turn good, and I hope it doesn't.
- 3:37Speaker 2: Like again, I'm one of these people who, like, I
- 3:39Speaker 2: hope both left and right sides of the aisles do
- 3:42Speaker 2: good things and the country does well. I realize both
- 3:45Speaker 2: sides end up and screwing the poochs one way or another. Uh,
- 3:48Speaker 2: but I'm always hopeful. But I read this stuff and
- 3:51Speaker 2: just hey, this is just more Donald Trump trying to
- 3:55Speaker 2: push blame to somebody else as to why the country's
- 3:58Speaker 2: economy is not at a it's you know, a great place.
- 4:04Speaker 1: Right and I think the key there with that is
- 4:07Speaker 1: there's two things. One of course is the influence that
- 4:10Speaker 1: we've seen obviously in Iran, but I think also the
- 4:14Speaker 1: situation we'll talk about Clarity Day, but also the Federate hike.
- 4:17Speaker 1: You know now we're talking about. If you look at
- 4:19Speaker 1: the percentage, and this is now granted, this is after
- 4:23Speaker 1: Powell most likely will be out because it's just talking
- 4:25Speaker 1: about twenty twenty six as a whole, but you can
- 4:27Speaker 1: kind of see the possibility at least of getting one
- 4:30Speaker 1: rate hike is in and somewhat flying. I mean, if
- 4:34Speaker 1: you want to call thirteen percent chance, But I'm not
- 4:37Speaker 1: really all in that Kevin Warrish is going to do this.
- 4:39Speaker 1: Would you say that he's going to hike or reduce
- 4:42Speaker 1: rates for throughout the end of the year, or do
- 4:45Speaker 1: you think we'll get a hike?
- 4:47Speaker 2: I well, I don't think we need to hike. I
- 4:49Speaker 2: think it'd be absolutely crazy if he gets in there
- 4:52Speaker 2: and does not cut rates. But I think more specifically,
- 4:55Speaker 2: people need to people need to understand the nuances of
- 4:58Speaker 2: everything going on right now. Your own pal is not
- 5:01Speaker 2: cutting rates, but he is starting a form of quantitative easing,
- 5:05Speaker 2: which actually is helping a little bit, but he's not
- 5:08Speaker 2: cutting rates worst. On the other hand, I think you've
- 5:10Speaker 2: talked about this on your channel as well. He's probably
- 5:12Speaker 2: gonna come in and cut rates, but he's probably gonna
- 5:14Speaker 2: ease off on some of the quantitative easing that Jerome
- 5:17Speaker 2: Powell has been doing. So I think there's actually a
- 5:19Speaker 2: chance that he comes in and cuts rates. It's actually
- 5:21Speaker 2: bullish for the the you know, the cycle, bullish for
- 5:23Speaker 2: the markets. But we'll see how it all shakes out
- 5:26Speaker 2: down the road. I don't think everything's as clear cut
- 5:28Speaker 2: as people want to think. But let's just let's pretend
- 5:30Speaker 2: though we live in a world Paul where he comes
- 5:33Speaker 2: in and doesn't cut rates. We have to assume Donald
- 5:36Speaker 2: Trump is gonna be furious.
- 5:37Speaker 1: Now that man. That's gonna be.
- 5:42Speaker 2: That'd be two fed chairmen in a row that he
- 5:44Speaker 2: appointed that turn on him. It would be be nuts.
- 5:47Speaker 2: It'd be good television.
- 5:49Speaker 1: Out of the world, man, out of the world. Uh,
- 5:52Speaker 1: can you imagine that? Man? I'd love to be at
- 5:54Speaker 1: Marko Lago mar Lago after that, for sure.
- 5:58Speaker 2: You fly on the wall.
- 5:59Speaker 1: Yeah, I've got a clip here. This is Tom Lee
- 6:03Speaker 1: and Kathy Wood. They're talking about timing this bottom, or
- 6:06Speaker 1: at least understanding when it might actually occur. I want
- 6:10Speaker 1: to play that for you, and then I want to
- 6:11Speaker 1: get your opinion. Take a look.
- 6:13Speaker 3: Higher oil is relatively good for US equities because one,
- 6:18Speaker 3: you know, the US is a net producer of oil.
- 6:20Speaker 3: But as people worry about global growth slowing because of
- 6:23Speaker 3: high oil, they want to own growth stocks, which actually
- 6:27Speaker 3: makes them want to own the US stock market because
- 6:30Speaker 3: it is a growth index, especially the MAGS seven and software.
- 6:34Speaker 3: I'm also in the camp that I think we're making
- 6:36Speaker 3: our bottom this month for the equity markets.
- 6:39Speaker 4: Okay, this is a really good time to pick up
- 6:42Speaker 4: on stocks that might be more volatile.
- 6:45Speaker 2: Volatility in our world.
- 6:48Speaker 4: Does not measure risk as much as it measures uncertainty.
- 6:52Speaker 4: And we are not in an AI hype cycle, and
- 6:55Speaker 4: we think it has miles to go.
- 6:58Speaker 1: All right, So there you got it. You got tom
- 7:00Speaker 1: Ley over here staying at the bottom this month, and
- 7:03Speaker 1: then you got Kathy Wood saying we're not in a
- 7:05Speaker 1: AI hive cycle, and she's looking at the volatility of it.
- 7:09Speaker 1: When you look at that, and then you kind of
- 7:12Speaker 1: apply that metric to what's happening in bitcoin and eth
- 7:16Speaker 1: and in general. The march. Where do you think we land?
- 7:19Speaker 1: Right here, here's the poll. Bitcoin will reach fifty k
- 7:22Speaker 1: by the end of March. Yes, no, it'll tap sixty.
- 7:27Speaker 2: Then up, I'm gonna say no. I'm saying no. I'm
- 7:31Speaker 2: gonna go with no, it's not gonna reach fifty k
- 7:33Speaker 2: by the end of March. There you go. I think
- 7:36Speaker 2: that in April.
- 7:39Speaker 1: You're with the crowd. You're with the crowd.
- 7:41Speaker 2: That's not good, Paul, as we said, you hate that.
- 7:46Speaker 1: I know you hate it, all right, Well you're thinking
- 7:48Speaker 1: maybe April though. Okay, So let's take a look at
- 7:50Speaker 1: the chart on the bitcoin chart. What indicators are you
- 7:54Speaker 1: seeing that says April instead of March.
- 7:58Speaker 2: Well, it's not so much the indicators telling me the
- 8:01Speaker 2: exact timeline, but it's things that I still think need
- 8:03Speaker 2: to play out. So if we go to my screen here,
- 8:06Speaker 2: I'll show you guys what I'm looking at on some
- 8:08Speaker 2: larger time frames. Now this morning, you know, obviously we've
- 8:11Speaker 2: had a lot of volatility here. We shot up almost
- 8:13Speaker 2: we almost kiss seventy four k this morning. We are
- 8:17Speaker 2: back down right now. But what I'm monitoring right now,
- 8:20Speaker 2: there still are some BI signals on these larger timeframes.
- 8:23Speaker 2: For example, the daily chart, we had this bisignal come
- 8:25Speaker 2: in almost perfectly on the retest of a former resistance line.
- 8:29Speaker 2: And then what I'm watching right now is this weekly
- 8:32Speaker 2: bi signal that looks like it wants to flash. It
- 8:34Speaker 2: hasn't confirmed. We tenderally need to see this week's candle
- 8:37Speaker 2: close and confirm. But what I'm looking at here is
- 8:40Speaker 2: this is a tool that I created called kryptonite, and
- 8:43Speaker 2: in a long in a long haul, reversals are coming in.
- 8:46Speaker 2: The MACD is back to being positive and we're getting
- 8:49Speaker 2: a green dot right now. The last time we had
- 8:51Speaker 2: this come back over here and look at December twenty
- 8:54Speaker 2: ninth of twenty twenty five. Now we're not talking about
- 8:57Speaker 2: rallies to new all time highs, but you can see
- 8:59Speaker 2: going back over here, that's this candle right here. We
- 9:02Speaker 2: would go on to bounce up and touch the weekly
- 9:05Speaker 2: Gaussian band. Can we get back to the weekly Gasian band?
- 9:08Speaker 2: We'll have to see. It's gonna be quickly falling. I
- 9:10Speaker 2: have a target writing here, this red box coming here,
- 9:13Speaker 2: and let's look at liquidations for a second. There are
- 9:16Speaker 2: some pretty hefty liquidations. We were in a big season
- 9:19Speaker 2: of getting rid of all the long liquidations downside right now.
- 9:23Speaker 2: Though we recently took out a big wave at seventy four,
- 9:26Speaker 2: there's another big wave here at seventy five. But you
- 9:28Speaker 2: see this pocket right here, just south of eighty k.
- 9:32Speaker 2: The reason why that pocket's interesting to me is I
- 9:36Speaker 2: don't think that the bottom is in yet, but I
- 9:38Speaker 2: do think we're in a macro elliot wave theory. I
- 9:41Speaker 2: have one of my pro traders in my group is
- 9:43Speaker 2: an elletwave theory guy, and he talks about this all
- 9:45Speaker 2: the time. We need to get a fifth wave down.
- 9:48Speaker 2: We had a big wave, one small wave, two nice
- 9:51Speaker 2: size wave, three wave fours. Here's the thing about elliet wave.
- 9:54Speaker 2: Wave fours don't have to get back up, but they
- 9:57Speaker 2: can't get above the bottom of wave one. Guess where
- 10:00Speaker 2: that's sitting right now, about eighty five hundred. We could
- 10:03Speaker 2: easily test back up to these levels and then make
- 10:05Speaker 2: our lower move. I'm targeting right now fifty three thousand
- 10:10Speaker 2: as my target to the downside. And again there's a
- 10:12Speaker 2: whole lot I can get into here, but in a nutshell,
- 10:14Speaker 2: I'm not going to draw it out for you. Head
- 10:16Speaker 2: and shoulders pattern, fixed trains, volume profile, along with fibinach
- 10:20Speaker 2: levels all suggests fifty three thousand is a very interesting
- 10:23Speaker 2: support level. However, I think that could be the bottom.
- 10:26Speaker 2: I think that that could be the bottom of the
- 10:27Speaker 2: ball market. But guess we don't have that. I think
- 10:29Speaker 2: we need to see to get a bottom, we need
- 10:32Speaker 2: to see a weekly bullish divergence from the RSI. We
- 10:35Speaker 2: have the lower lows right, but look at the RSI
- 10:37Speaker 2: right here. The RSI has not put in a higher
- 10:40Speaker 2: low to go with the lower high or lower low
- 10:45Speaker 2: from the price action. We need to see this RSI
- 10:48Speaker 2: actually bounce up a little higher and then put in
- 10:50Speaker 2: a higher low mixed with a lower low in price action,
- 10:53Speaker 2: and then we have a bullish divergence very similar. Let
- 10:55Speaker 2: me come out of here and go back and show
- 10:57Speaker 2: you very similar to what the bottom of twenty twenty
- 10:59Speaker 2: two looked like. Higher low on the RSI, lower low
- 11:02Speaker 2: in price action. But now let's talk about why do
- 11:05Speaker 2: I think that we are close to the bottom and
- 11:09Speaker 2: that we need to see a playout like this. It's
- 11:11Speaker 2: because guess what we just hit on the weekly chart
- 11:13Speaker 2: here a couple of weeks ago. We hit twenty six
- 11:16Speaker 2: twenty seven. Go back to previous bear markets. The bear
- 11:19Speaker 2: market at twenty one two bottomed in the RSI at
- 11:21Speaker 2: that level, the bear market of twenty eighteen, excuse me,
- 11:24Speaker 2: bottom at that level, the bear market of oh, I
- 11:27Speaker 2: don't have a history. The bear market back here in
- 11:29Speaker 2: twenty fifteen, This chart doesn't go that hard. It bottom
- 11:32Speaker 2: that level. So we've hit the RSI low. Now it's
- 11:35Speaker 2: about setting the bullish divergence, which to me screams one
- 11:39Speaker 2: more wave down. But at first we need to trap people.
- 11:43Speaker 2: We need to I think people are still too pessimistic.
- 11:46Speaker 2: But a surge up here closer to eighty k retail
- 11:49Speaker 2: is gonna be convinced the bull runs back on. We're
- 11:52Speaker 2: going to new highs all to get trapped once again.
- 11:55Speaker 2: Take out some short positions, create some fresh ones, and
- 11:57Speaker 2: then make our last move down. Set up the bullish
- 11:59Speaker 2: diverse gins. And now we find ourselves at bottom for
- 12:02Speaker 2: the bear market.
- 12:03Speaker 1: There you go. Well, not anybody watching our show is
- 12:06Speaker 1: going to get trapped.
- 12:06Speaker 2: I hope.
- 12:08Speaker 1: This is the key is just being aware of what
- 12:10Speaker 1: can happen in some of these markets. It's not you know,
- 12:12Speaker 1: it's not financial advice, but at least you get some
- 12:14Speaker 1: historical ANALYSI what we've seen with the RSIs. I want
- 12:18Speaker 1: to play a clip from Mark Cudmore because he hits
- 12:22Speaker 1: on something that's important, because if you look at Catalyst
- 12:26Speaker 1: right now, what are some of the things that could
- 12:28Speaker 1: potentially happen. One is going to be the S and
- 12:30Speaker 1: P five hundred, which I want to get your opinion
- 12:32Speaker 1: on the chart. But listen to what Mark had to say.
- 12:36Speaker 4: But all the bullish arguments I hear are based on
- 12:40Speaker 4: just assumptions which just don't seem to make sense the
- 12:43Speaker 4: news flow. Everyone's talking about Trump's off frump, Well, what's
- 12:47Speaker 4: Iran's off? From Iran is the one who's closed the
- 12:49Speaker 4: straight up our muse, which is the one that's disrupted
- 12:51Speaker 4: the global economy. I don't see what their incentive is
- 12:54Speaker 4: to open it up without being offered something massive in return.
- 12:57Speaker 4: I'm not saying the world in the space that it
- 12:58Speaker 4: wants to offer around many good right now. So I
- 13:02Speaker 4: just don't see how this has an imminent outcome.
- 13:05Speaker 1: Again, I reader it.
- 13:06Speaker 4: I'm not a geopolitical expert, and stocks definitely are pricing
- 13:10Speaker 4: a very imminent outcome. They're pricing that because Trump cares
- 13:13Speaker 4: about markets, it'll all the results soon, even though they
- 13:15Speaker 4: can't explain how we get there. They're like, he'll trumple
- 13:18Speaker 4: want off FROMP. Well, he's not the only protagonist in
- 13:20Speaker 4: this story. So stocks are completely complacent, and I still
- 13:24Speaker 4: see severe downside for stocks. And it's getting a little
- 13:27Speaker 4: bit depressing because I'm not saying where the optimism is,
- 13:31Speaker 4: you know, despite that we went into this situation, you know,
- 13:34Speaker 4: it's an extremely positive backdrop. I feel like we're ruining
- 13:38Speaker 4: everything because I don't see where the end in sight
- 13:41Speaker 4: is in terms of the strait of romos flowing freely.
- 13:45Speaker 4: And I think the disruption to markets are still being underestimated.
- 13:48Speaker 1: All right, disruption to markets underestimated. Here, I'm looking at ED.
- 13:53Speaker 1: He's clocking us in right now. Almost a trillion been
- 13:57Speaker 1: wiped out. If you look at the S and P
- 13:58Speaker 1: and Video, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Tazla, av Go, I mean,
- 14:04Speaker 1: you name it. Everybody is either at break or we
- 14:08Speaker 1: are on the move downward. And Cudmore is now saying
- 14:12Speaker 1: that he thinks that there's more pain to come. I mean,
- 14:15Speaker 1: this would be significant if we saw another five percent
- 14:18Speaker 1: come off the S and P. What's your position on
- 14:20Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred, right, now.
- 14:23Speaker 2: It's overdue for a pullback. This is something that any
- 14:25Speaker 2: technical analysts who watches the SPO one hundred has been
- 14:29Speaker 2: talking about now for quite some time. So I don't
- 14:31Speaker 2: want to come on here and act like, oh, I'm this,
- 14:33Speaker 2: you know, the greatest technical analyst in the world, and
- 14:35Speaker 2: I've noticed something that nobody else has seen. No. No,
- 14:38Speaker 2: you go and look at any technical analyst who does
- 14:40Speaker 2: significant reviews on the SPO one hundred. They are all
- 14:43Speaker 2: saying we're overdue for a pullback. If you go and
- 14:45Speaker 2: look at my chart right here, we've begun the pullback. Right,
- 14:48Speaker 2: We're in the early stages of it. A very minor
- 14:51Speaker 2: and I've been saying this one for weeks. A very
- 14:53Speaker 2: minor pullback keyword minor would be at least down to
- 14:56Speaker 2: six fifty, right, So just kind of coming back down
- 14:59Speaker 2: to this slump we had back in November is the
- 15:01Speaker 2: very least that it needs. I think this yellow box
- 15:05Speaker 2: down here, though closer to six hundred, is much more likely.
- 15:09Speaker 2: This would be a pullback for the SPP one hundred
- 15:10Speaker 2: Somewhere around twelve at the bottom of it really got
- 15:13Speaker 2: like fourteen ish percent. There's absolutely a chance it goes
- 15:16Speaker 2: even lower than that. But the big reason why is,
- 15:18Speaker 2: you know, the weekly chart's been screaming at us for
- 15:20Speaker 2: a while. The cell sings are here, we're starting to
- 15:22Speaker 2: feed on that one. It's this monthly chart. The monthly
- 15:25Speaker 2: chart selles singal just closed officially back here in at
- 15:29Speaker 2: the end of February, so we knew again. We knew
- 15:33Speaker 2: techno anamist knew that month much was probably not gonna
- 15:36Speaker 2: be a great month for the sp F one hundred.
- 15:37Speaker 2: It's just getting going. Take a look at some of
- 15:39Speaker 2: the last couple of times seales singals have come in here.
- 15:41Speaker 2: We're talking about December of twenty four, nice sized pullback.
- 15:45Speaker 2: There was a little dollar there, nothing major right there
- 15:47Speaker 2: because we didn't have any reversals really coming in. But
- 15:49Speaker 2: go back even before that. Let's go back to January
- 15:52Speaker 2: twenty one two. That was the major recession. Everything pulled
- 15:55Speaker 2: back at that time. But then come back to these
- 15:57Speaker 2: other times February of twenty twenty. It's crazy how we
- 15:59Speaker 2: had cell signal right before COVID and it just coincidentally
- 16:03Speaker 2: took us back to everything we needed. You go back
- 16:05Speaker 2: over here in October of twenty eighteen, back over here
- 16:08Speaker 2: into February of eighteen. These monthly cell signals are very,
- 16:12Speaker 2: very reliable, and we just got one at the end
- 16:14Speaker 2: of February, so expecting a pullback is extremely healthy. Does
- 16:19Speaker 2: this mean that we're going to have this massive crash
- 16:22Speaker 2: similar to eight or the Great Depression, which some analysts
- 16:25Speaker 2: are going to try to fearmonger you into. No, what
- 16:28Speaker 2: we see is actually a testament of success. The S
- 16:32Speaker 2: and P five hundred rallied despite uncertainty in the markets,
- 16:36Speaker 2: despite the fact that we weren't getting rate cuts, despite
- 16:39Speaker 2: the fact that liquidity wasn't coming in. So it's more like, man,
- 16:43Speaker 2: how did the SBI one hundred stay so high so long?
- 16:46Speaker 2: That's a miracle. A correction should just simply be expected.
- 16:50Speaker 1: Well, I think the thing there though, if you look
- 16:53Speaker 1: at just some of the catalysts that we have had
- 16:55Speaker 1: over the last eighteen months, the AI trade had a
- 16:58Speaker 1: lot to do with this too. Oh yes, for sure,
- 17:00Speaker 1: you know, you know, so that in itself is.
- 17:02Speaker 2: Taking vide out, taking video out of what is actually
- 17:05Speaker 2: different story.
- 17:06Speaker 1: Different story for sure. Another story that is now playing
- 17:11Speaker 1: into this is the length of this conflict. Here we
- 17:14Speaker 1: are in the US and the Iranian ceasefire probability. This
- 17:18Speaker 1: is the first time that we've seen December now on
- 17:21Speaker 1: the poly market, So December coming in hot for the
- 17:26Speaker 1: potential for the ceasefire. This could really lengthen things, which
- 17:30Speaker 1: again goes back to your point of causing a lot
- 17:32Speaker 1: more pain on the S and P five hundred. Obviously,
- 17:35Speaker 1: energy will play into this. There will be some volatility
- 17:38Speaker 1: opportunities for sure, But what do you think, do you
- 17:41Speaker 1: think this is going to last that long?
- 17:44Speaker 2: So, Paul, I don't know. I don't know how much
- 17:46Speaker 2: of my content year team's been able to consume. I recently,
- 17:49Speaker 2: I'm gonna show your team I made a prop for
- 17:52Speaker 2: some video.
- 17:54Speaker 1: Here we go, Here we go. All right, yeah, yeah.
- 18:00Speaker 2: I tell people I have to pull out the Tim
- 18:02Speaker 2: Foyle hat for some of these things. Listen, Paul, I
- 18:06Speaker 2: would love to live in a world where we can
- 18:07Speaker 2: trust the government. I would love to live in a
- 18:09Speaker 2: world where you can read the Internet and know that
- 18:11Speaker 2: you're being told the truth. We don't live in that world. No.
- 18:15Speaker 2: I put a tweet out yesterday that when you go
- 18:18Speaker 2: back and look at the history of things, they're gonna
- 18:19Speaker 2: tell you guys, the oil prices rising will crash markets. Yeah,
- 18:24Speaker 2: so explain, explain twenty twenty to me. You know, there's
- 18:27Speaker 2: actually several times in history. Oil prices increase does not
- 18:31Speaker 2: equal crypto crash, stock market crash, go back. There are
- 18:35Speaker 2: times where inflation was high and yet markets rally. There
- 18:38Speaker 2: were times where Republicans are in power, things rise, other
- 18:42Speaker 2: times things fall. There's times where democrats are in power,
- 18:44Speaker 2: things rise, things fault. We are being told every single day,
- 18:47Speaker 2: if this happens, we're gonna crash. If this happens, we're
- 18:50Speaker 2: gonna crash if this and the reality is no, these
- 18:54Speaker 2: events in and of themselves do not cause crashes. What
- 18:57Speaker 2: caused crashes is uncertain That is the only thing that's
- 19:02Speaker 2: always around these crashes. When there's uncertainty, when there's fear,
- 19:06Speaker 2: when there's doubts, these are where these things start to fall.
- 19:10Speaker 2: I'm feeling pretty unsided, Paul. Where the timfoil hat comes in.
- 19:15Speaker 2: I don't know where you are, and you don't have
- 19:16Speaker 2: to this your show, so you don't have to. I'll
- 19:18Speaker 2: be the crazy guy. I think they've already settled the war, Paul.
- 19:22Speaker 2: I think that they've already settled up to clarity active.
- 19:25Speaker 1: It's definitely and buzzkill here for sure.
- 19:28Speaker 2: Yes, Like I think that they are just playing with
- 19:32Speaker 2: us to keep things uncertain, because the minute we start
- 19:35Speaker 2: to figure things out, Like, inflation isn't a bad thing
- 19:37Speaker 2: if we're used to it. Uh, terrorists are not a
- 19:41Speaker 2: bad thing if everybody's used to it. Oil price is
- 19:44Speaker 2: rising is not a bad thing if everyone's used to
- 19:45Speaker 2: it and knows what to expect. It's the not knowing
- 19:48Speaker 2: what to expect that's causing so much concern. And so
- 19:50Speaker 2: we live in a world right now where the powers
- 19:52Speaker 2: that be who want to manipulate price, they understand we
- 19:56Speaker 2: have to keep people guessing. Why do we see one
- 19:59Speaker 2: day a bunch of people really optimistic about the Clarity Act,
- 20:02Speaker 2: and then the next day it's all falling apart. And
- 20:04Speaker 2: then one day Donald Trump comes out and says the
- 20:05Speaker 2: war is over, And the next day there's minds going
- 20:07Speaker 2: into the strait of hermoves. And then this day Iran's
- 20:10Speaker 2: the one shutting the mooves. Then this one is the
- 20:12Speaker 2: insurance company, then it's this company. Now this country can
- 20:14Speaker 2: go through. Now this country at the end of what
- 20:16Speaker 2: I'm actually realizing is this is all just made up
- 20:19Speaker 2: crap to confuse us to keep uncertainty. Why because a
- 20:23Speaker 2: lot of wealthy people want these markets to drop so
- 20:25Speaker 2: they can buy the dips. And when they're ready, when
- 20:27Speaker 2: they get their fill on the S and P five
- 20:29Speaker 2: hundred on AI stocks, on crypto, when they catch their
- 20:32Speaker 2: bottom that they want, all of a sudden, magically, the
- 20:36Speaker 2: war of the ron will be over. Oil prices will stabilize,
- 20:39Speaker 2: the Clarity Act will will pass, and everything will start
- 20:41Speaker 2: to flow back up because certainty will start to come back.
- 20:44Speaker 2: We're not there yet, but I kind of read these headlines, Paul,
- 20:48Speaker 2: and I'm just like, what fresh bs am I being
- 20:50Speaker 2: served today? Why are they lying to me? I'm gonna
- 20:53Speaker 2: I'm gonna trade around those lies.
- 20:55Speaker 1: First thing you see when hitting the homepage for the
- 20:57Speaker 1: world's largest ETF fish here, that's I shares and blackrock
- 21:01Speaker 1: right there. Expland expand your crypto discuffer eth B. So
- 21:06Speaker 1: there you have it. Man, stagging on eth on blackrock,
- 21:10Speaker 1: let's talk about ethereum. Does this impact Eth's move now?
- 21:14Speaker 1: Granted it's moved along with Bitcoin over the last day, Yeah,
- 21:17Speaker 1: but what's your position right now with Eth? Would you
- 21:21Speaker 1: continue to dollar cost average in?
- 21:23Speaker 2: Oh? I mean again, I tell people right now if
- 21:26Speaker 2: you watch the Bitcoin chart, I think you need to
- 21:28Speaker 2: go explore other charts just to confirm. But the reason
- 21:33Speaker 2: why I don't do a lot of all coin ta
- 21:35Speaker 2: right now in my content. I'll do it for my
- 21:37Speaker 2: VIP trading group, but I don't do a lot on
- 21:39Speaker 2: YouTube because it's actually kind of a waste of time.
- 21:41Speaker 2: Look at what I'm looking at right here. This is
- 21:43Speaker 2: the eth chart. But remember we talked about Bitcoin's weekly bicycle. Well,
- 21:46Speaker 2: guess what the oscillators look the same. I'm I go
- 21:49Speaker 2: to the daily chart. They almost look identical to the
- 21:51Speaker 2: day of when the b singles came in. Well, the
- 21:53Speaker 2: price action is in itself identical, like Ethereum actually came
- 21:57Speaker 2: in here and put in a slightly higher high this
- 22:00Speaker 2: than what we had over here in March. Bitcoin didn't
- 22:02Speaker 2: do that. The waves are very similar. So you can
- 22:05Speaker 2: just about go ahead and look at Bitcoin analysis and
- 22:10Speaker 2: then go trade the Ethereum chart or the Salona chart,
- 22:13Speaker 2: or the XRP chart or the chaining chart. Eventually someday
- 22:16Speaker 2: those will shift back and things will be a little
- 22:17Speaker 2: more independent. But that's where we are right now with Ethereum,
- 22:20Speaker 2: and in the same world I told you I think
- 22:22Speaker 2: a bitcoin can make a move up towards eighty k,
- 22:24Speaker 2: my eyes for Ethereum are gonna be sitting here between
- 22:26Speaker 2: twenty four hundred and twenty six hundred. After that, I
- 22:30Speaker 2: do think that Ethereum probably could make a big wave
- 22:32Speaker 2: down and come closer towards sixteen hundred, back to a
- 22:35Speaker 2: support level of a pretty major trend line. This is
- 22:39Speaker 2: gonna correspond with other support levels as well. But again,
- 22:42Speaker 2: if I'm gonna trade bitcoin chart and I think the
- 22:44Speaker 2: Bitcoin chart is preparing a wave up and then a
- 22:46Speaker 2: wave to a slightly lower low, it's just coincidental. What
- 22:50Speaker 2: atheroem start looks like major support level. Major liquidations right
- 22:53Speaker 2: here on twenty four hundred to twenty six hundred and
- 22:55Speaker 2: then again coming down to sixteen hundred would make a
- 22:58Speaker 2: whole lot of sense for Ethereum as well, staying inside
- 23:01Speaker 2: a macro trend following the bitcoin charts. If I'm right
- 23:04Speaker 2: and there's a heavy amount of evidence for Bitcoin at
- 23:06Speaker 2: fifty three thousand, I think Etheroreum at sixteen hundred is
- 23:09Speaker 2: a great spot as well. I'll say this, I don't
- 23:12Speaker 2: ever wait for exact bottom, and I'm sitting here saying
- 23:14Speaker 2: this like someone be saying, Tim, does that mean you
- 23:16Speaker 2: don't own any etherorum right now? You're not buying any etherorum,
- 23:18Speaker 2: You're not buying any bitcoin. You wait these levels. No,
- 23:20Speaker 2: I'm very aware of human error and tim error, So
- 23:23Speaker 2: I buy these dips. I think we are so close.
- 23:25Speaker 2: I am dcaing when I see dips, but I'm still
- 23:29Speaker 2: heavily convicted to the bottom. Isn't quite in yet?
- 23:31Speaker 1: All right, there you go? All right, Well, I have
- 23:33Speaker 1: one for you Eth versus Soul right now, because those
- 23:36Speaker 1: are two I think titans in terms of how to
- 23:38Speaker 1: trade in the market. You've got a lot of news
- 23:40Speaker 1: coming out with both Eth kind of the new privacy
- 23:44Speaker 1: chain I feel like, with the way Metallics pitching it,
- 23:47Speaker 1: and then you've got Salana partner with MasterCard. There's all
- 23:50Speaker 1: kinds of stuff happening there. What do you think Eth
- 23:51Speaker 1: versus Soul right now? If you had to pick one?
- 23:55Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, so, I want to start off by
- 23:57Speaker 2: saying you don't have to pick one, right you can.
- 23:58Speaker 2: You can diversify and own both. So therefore that's what
- 24:01Speaker 2: I'm doing. But if you're asking me which one I
- 24:04Speaker 2: think I'd make more money on in the bull market,
- 24:07Speaker 2: it's gonna be Solana. And it's in as simple as
- 24:09Speaker 2: just saying I think Ethereum I don't think as long
- 24:11Speaker 2: as gonna be anywhere close to the market cap of Ethereum.
- 24:14Speaker 2: But I'm not gonna waste time to look for it
- 24:16Speaker 2: go to the market caps of these things. I mean,
- 24:18Speaker 2: it is monstrous the difference. So like, if let's just
- 24:21Speaker 2: say one trillion was added to Ethereum and only seven
- 24:25Speaker 2: hundred billion was added to Solana, that's a greater return
- 24:29Speaker 2: on my law investment than Ethereum. So therefore, even though
- 24:33Speaker 2: I think Ethereum is not gonna get passed by Solana,
- 24:36Speaker 2: I still believe Solana is the better investment at this time.
- 24:39Speaker 1: All Right, there you go. We're gonna go into our
- 24:40Speaker 1: lightning ground. We've got some banger questions here, tim, They're
- 24:44Speaker 1: gonna be some fun one. So first up, what has
- 24:46Speaker 1: been more responsible for moving crypto prices lately? The macro
- 24:50Speaker 1: chaos or the clarity odds chaos.
- 24:55Speaker 2: Oh it's so close. Can you just put me in
- 24:57Speaker 2: the middle both, I mean not either or both? Yeah,
- 25:00Speaker 2: they take turns. They There was a time when I
- 25:04Speaker 2: was in content, like the last week, it was like
- 25:06Speaker 2: one day a new headline would come out about a
- 25:08Speaker 2: wrong war, and the next day it's like like the
- 25:10Speaker 2: news is literally flip look today's puck news or war today.
- 25:13Speaker 2: Let's talk Clarity Act, War Clarity Act, War Clarity Act.
- 25:16Speaker 1: So I'm would say, but I think clarity in terms
- 25:18Speaker 1: of the market, at least crypto market, I think that's
- 25:21Speaker 1: what people are most interested in. What is Trump's opinion
- 25:24Speaker 1: on more Swayed on gas pumps or Iranians?
- 25:29Speaker 2: What is Trump's opinion more swayed by? Yeah? Oh man,
- 25:33Speaker 2: I'm gonna say, okay, you know what, Actually I was
- 25:35Speaker 2: about to say, I Ranians. I was about to say Ranians,
- 25:37Speaker 2: But here's not gonna say gas pumps, because he's now
- 25:40Speaker 2: trying to pedal that we that America, it's really good
- 25:43Speaker 2: for America when when oil price is up, which is
- 25:46Speaker 2: his way of fighting fun and saying you should embrace
- 25:49Speaker 2: gas pump prices, which means it's incentivizing his thinking. So
- 25:52Speaker 2: I'm going gas pumps.
- 25:53Speaker 1: Should should you wear? We should probably have a one
- 25:56Speaker 1: on here. Should Tim wear the Timfoil hat, the Tim
- 26:00Speaker 1: Tim Boyle? I should say, yeah, okay. Trump's Japanese meeting
- 26:04Speaker 1: with TAKEI this is coming up next week. Well, do
- 26:07Speaker 1: you think that's gonna pump the market? Japanese they're playing
- 26:12Speaker 1: hardball with it.
- 26:13Speaker 2: I didn't even I thought about that question. Well I'll
- 26:20Speaker 2: say this. Yeah, let's say yes, because I think that
- 26:22Speaker 2: March twentieth could could be a pumping situation. I don't
- 26:25Speaker 2: know if I think we'll be pumping during that time?
- 26:28Speaker 1: All right? Perfect? Would Trump cancel clarity if told him to?
- 26:35Speaker 2: What a dangerous question? Uh yeah, this is gonna get
- 26:40Speaker 2: clipped and held against me. Can you just put me
- 26:48Speaker 2: in the just put me? Don't I I can't recall.
- 26:52Speaker 2: I don't recall.
- 26:53Speaker 1: I don't recall. I will abstain from answering. After everyone
- 27:02Speaker 1: is disappointed with their epic tax are fun this year,
- 27:05Speaker 1: Trump is going to be forced to get stimulus out.
- 27:08Speaker 1: Do you think that will happen?
- 27:10Speaker 2: Can he? I mean it looks like he's gonna litigate
- 27:12Speaker 2: paying off these tariff you know, yeah.
- 27:15Speaker 1: No money to give stimulus. He won't have any. I'm
- 27:18Speaker 1: gonna say no.
- 27:18Speaker 2: Yeah, I think whatever the answers, I know we won't
- 27:21Speaker 2: get stimulus checks.
- 27:22Speaker 1: I think yeah, yeah, no stimulus, No stimulus people. What's better?
- 27:27Speaker 1: Private market token to be exposed to right now, Anthropic
- 27:30Speaker 1: or poly Market do you think And just to give
- 27:33Speaker 1: you I want to cheat a little bit. Here's here's
- 27:35Speaker 1: Anthropic right here. Okay, that's their chart. This is in
- 27:39Speaker 1: the you know if over on juke, you guys can
- 27:42Speaker 1: find these. These are of course token is stocks available.
- 27:45Speaker 1: There's the poly poly market token boom, it's moving.
- 27:49Speaker 2: I think both would do well. So that again, I
- 27:53Speaker 2: haven't I.
- 27:54Speaker 1: Need you're in the middle.
- 27:55Speaker 2: What's underneath six hundred billion vers fristeam bit is that
- 27:58Speaker 2: the current market cap?
- 28:00Speaker 1: Well, that's what we think. What the potential is, you
- 28:02Speaker 1: know for where this is going. Current market caps? Yeah,
- 28:05Speaker 1: current market caps of Polymarket and of anthrop in terms
- 28:09Speaker 1: of valuations.
- 28:10Speaker 2: Let's go with Let's go with Polymarket. And the reason
- 28:13Speaker 2: why is because I think that I think the competition
- 28:15Speaker 2: in the AI sector is a little stronger at the.
- 28:17Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm in agreement with you. I think it's poly
- 28:20Speaker 1: Market all the way. Which major app is ready to
- 28:24Speaker 1: launch first? This would be immediately after Clarity passing the
- 28:28Speaker 1: ave app? Or do you think the polymarket app would
- 28:31Speaker 1: would jump right after Clarity? Clarity comes through in April
- 28:35Speaker 1: or May and boom, there's an app ready to rock
- 28:38Speaker 1: Go Get Go get yield rates or or mid term.
- 28:42Speaker 2: I don't know enough about what's going into the a
- 28:44Speaker 2: A app, So I'm gonna go with polymarket app just
- 28:45Speaker 2: because I know a little bit more about what their
- 28:47Speaker 2: goals are. I think I don't know if the goals
- 28:49Speaker 2: of a.
- 28:50Speaker 1: I'm with you on that. I love this one. I
- 28:52Speaker 1: wish it would this one because but I think it's
- 28:55Speaker 1: going to take time for people to understand the yields thing.
- 28:58Speaker 1: If we win the yields battle, I think the mid
- 29:01Speaker 1: terms are going to be heated and poly market will
- 29:03Speaker 1: get be used by everybody. So it's just going to
- 29:06Speaker 1: be a big one. Twenty twenty six, broken tax reporting
- 29:09Speaker 1: policy will kill centralized exchange uses. Well, people just go
- 29:14Speaker 1: screw this. I'm going to you know DeFi.
- 29:18Speaker 2: Now because people are stupid and they don't understand DeFi.
- 29:20Speaker 1: So no, all right, I'm with you on that one.
- 29:24Speaker 1: I think no too. They'll be the smart ones that
- 29:27Speaker 1: do it. But yeah, you guys watch our show.
- 29:29Speaker 2: Make a shift, but the majority of us are done.
- 29:33Speaker 1: What would be the big, bigger initial sign that clarity
- 29:36Speaker 1: will pass after the you'll compromise trump coin redline is abandoned,
- 29:41Speaker 1: meaning you know, the whole issue with the Trump family,
- 29:44Speaker 1: or Larry Fink says, hey, it's done, We're getting this
- 29:47Speaker 1: thing done. Get out of the way, Black Rocks and troll.
- 29:52Speaker 2: I think I think it's not officially pen to paper.
- 29:54Speaker 2: I think they already have a written agreement and everybody
- 29:57Speaker 2: knows what they go, So let's go. Think it's passing.
- 30:01Speaker 1: Lara Finks, I agree with you on that. I think
- 30:04Speaker 1: if Lara says it's going, it's going.
- 30:06Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 30:07Speaker 1: The day after Clarity passes, Kathy Wood goes dark on
- 30:11Speaker 1: bitcoin and she goes all in on stable coin and
- 30:15Speaker 1: payment stocks. We're all in on eth and Solana.
- 30:19Speaker 2: I think she'd be more likely to go in on
- 30:20Speaker 2: a theory in Solana.
- 30:22Speaker 1: Tom Lee makes his first one hundred thousand eighth purchase.
- 30:25Speaker 1: This is our signal of the bottom. The one we're
- 30:29Speaker 1: watching is the Tom Lee tracker. Once he purchases one
- 30:32Speaker 1: hundred thousand eighth, we think, okay, Bottom is in. He's
- 30:36Speaker 1: because he's been going like twenty forty sixty. Just recently
- 30:39Speaker 1: he grabs sixty K.
- 30:42Speaker 2: And he probably knows stuff we don't know. Of course,
- 30:45Speaker 2: you can you put me in the middle because I
- 30:47Speaker 2: don't know if the clear decks going to pass in
- 30:49Speaker 2: two weeks. But I think he makes that purchase ahead
- 30:51Speaker 2: of it because he gets the green light early.
- 30:55Speaker 1: I think it's after clarity. Yeah, so I'll put.
- 30:57Speaker 2: It on again. He doesn't get If he doesn't find
- 30:59Speaker 2: out before we do, then it's after. But if he
- 31:01Speaker 2: gets told, hey guys, this is going through.
- 31:04Speaker 1: Then it would happen. But okay, well, then of course
- 31:06Speaker 1: what will make the most ferocious comeback after Clarity? You
- 31:09Speaker 1: think it would be Sweet or AVX.
- 31:13Speaker 2: That's a good one. Oh, let's both good. Let's go
- 31:21Speaker 2: with Sweet though. I think Sweet. I think Sweeze do
- 31:24Speaker 2: for a I mean they both do for a big pullback,
- 31:26Speaker 2: our big correction back up. But I like Sweet. I
- 31:28Speaker 2: think I'll go.
- 31:30Speaker 1: I'll go just opice because so we can have them.
- 31:32Speaker 1: You know, are x RP holders will pretend to love
- 31:37Speaker 1: the ripple Bank but won't use it.
- 31:42Speaker 2: Yes, that's true.
- 31:43Speaker 1: Yes, that's they will pretend to love it and don't
- 31:47Speaker 1: love it, but.
- 31:48Speaker 2: They won't actually use it.
- 31:49Speaker 1: Now yeah, I don't know. I'm gonna just go. Yes, man,
- 31:53Speaker 1: they will use it and they will love it.
- 31:55Speaker 2: I don't know, we'll see we'll see.
- 31:57Speaker 1: All right, there you go. No, they will, we'll use it,
- 32:00Speaker 1: all right. So then how low does apy need to
- 32:03Speaker 1: go before we begin to see people migrating out of
- 32:05Speaker 1: money market funds? Yeah, we're like at almost four percent
- 32:12Speaker 1: for most parts, there's a lot there's some money markets
- 32:15Speaker 1: paying over four. But if we drop down to say
- 32:18Speaker 1: two one, or do you think it has to go
- 32:22Speaker 1: all the way down to paying nothing before they jump
- 32:24Speaker 1: out of the money market funds?
- 32:27Speaker 2: I don't even know that's a good question.
- 32:30Speaker 1: I like, I think it hits two percent, people are
- 32:33Speaker 1: bye bye.
- 32:37Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean you would you would like to think
- 32:40Speaker 2: they'd go ahead and just do it now. But okay, yeah,
- 32:42Speaker 2: let's two to two, two to one. Let's put me
- 32:44Speaker 2: on to the left of you. Maybe it'd be a
- 32:46Speaker 2: little more because people are stingy, but I think two
- 32:49Speaker 2: percent would make sense.
- 32:51Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, there we go. Bitcoin and ethereum hit
- 32:54Speaker 1: all all hit all time high after the Dems cake
- 32:58Speaker 1: take control of the House in the Senate in the midterms.
- 33:01Speaker 2: What do you think historically, yes, like split in the
- 33:06Speaker 2: split in the Senate, and the presidency has actually been
- 33:09Speaker 2: bullish for crypto. So yeah, there you go.
- 33:11Speaker 1: So I'm on your in agreement with that's for that
- 33:13Speaker 1: same reason too. All Right, there you go, guys, another
- 33:16Speaker 1: lightning round with the Tim Foyle hat. I love it,
- 33:19Speaker 1: I love the news, the prop anyway, you gotta have
- 33:21Speaker 1: fun with these markets right now, so it's good to
- 33:23Speaker 1: see you out there doing it. Tim. Thanks someonere for
- 33:25Speaker 1: coming in today. We appreciate it.
- 33:27Speaker 2: Awesome, Thanks for having me.
- 33:35Speaker 1: If you like this video, hit like and subscribe, drop
- 33:37Speaker 1: a comment down below, and also join our free private
- 33:40Speaker 1: member group. The link is in the description.