Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

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UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:04
  Speaker 1: All systems go. Clear for liftoff.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: What is going on, everybody? Hope you're having a great week.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: We are back talking some fights. Paris, France, the UFC
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: is headed to Shanghai last week. Paris this week, it's
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: making its rounds. You know where next week is, though,
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: Big Marley? Football. Next week is football, but next week's
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: also in Arizona, in Phoenix, right in my backyard. OJ
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: UFC is headed. So I will be live next week.
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: Not yet, so we're not going to get too excited there.
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: But yeah, football and UFC live next week. Doesn't get
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: any better than that. But first, 13 fights in Paris,
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: 12 p.m.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: Eastern.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: So it is another weird start time. Saturday night, though,
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: 12 p.m.
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: Eastern.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: Make sure you get your lineups in. Plenty of time
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: to do so on Saturday. Throw it to you right now.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: I'm seeing two five-star fights from you. Oh, excuse me,
• 1:24
  Speaker 2: three five-star fights. And the main event is not a five-star.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: So I think that makes a pretty interesting card. What
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: are your thoughts on this one, Big Marley?
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I started with the main event as a five-star,
• 1:34
  Speaker 4: and then I didn't want to put four five-stars. So
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: I went and I moved that one down because I
• 1:39
  Speaker 4: figured the ownership would be there anyways. But I think
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: I'm excited for this Parnas guy. I think he looks
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: like the full package. And if the UFC is trusting
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: him for a main event in his debut, then I
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: guess I should as well. So I think it's a
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: good card, good way to start off our Saturday.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: Absolutely. College football. Also shout out to here. Let me
• 1:59
  Speaker 3: just pull over.
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: Let's go over to ship a nation.com before we go
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: and deep dive into all these fights. But yeah, football
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: is definitely back college football.
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: Week one is on Saturday at 10 a.m. Eastern big boy.
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: Prides out there they actually have some good prizes tomorrow
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: in the college football streets as well so definitely make
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: sure to check us out nfl next week to this
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: day on wednesday is the first game next week no
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: pga right now we do have mlb of course mma
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: and nascar on sunday so you're just wanting to play
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: nfl only you can see the banner right here have
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: over 45 000 in cash and prizes that we are
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: giving away for the ship of games like many of
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: you remember last year All you need is this NFL-only
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: package or an all-access package. If you go to the
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: bottom left, join the nation. I assume many of you
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: are playing MMA if you're watching this. So you can
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: get a five days for $ 19 trial. That gets you
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: all the sports above Discord and Sabresim. All the way
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: to the far right, those single sports. We do have
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: just MMA as well if you're just playing MMA. Again,
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: it's pretty much every single week. You cannot get better
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: than this deal. Only $ 20 more to add Sabresim. If
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: you do so, choose Sabresim. Let's head over to the comments.
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: I appreciate that, Sean Sullivan.
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: Hope you're doing well. It's great to see you.
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: As far as like a broad slate overview for me,
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: so five of the 13 fights are expected to go
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: the distance, which means eight of the 13 expected to finish.
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: That's a pretty good number. Then when you look at favorites,
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: I put these up on Monday.
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: We'll always talk about the line movement, but Curtis Campbell's
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: minus 360.
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: You talked about partners minus 600.
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: He's even greater right now, but no other favorite is
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: greater than minus three 60 besides the main events.
• 3:41
  Speaker 3: And he is the highest owned in.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: My opinion, that 9,500 plenty of people will pay for him.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: There's enough dogs in the slate mid tier is pretty
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: solid to come through, but yeah, that's how I'm seeing
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: it outside of the main event favorite and partners. I
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: think it is going to be relatively spread out, which
• 3:56
  Speaker 2: is what I like to see for DFS and the
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: broad slate for you before we go fight by fight.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: No, I think that's probably a good start.
• 4:04
  Speaker 4: Parnas probably still got a lot of the ownership, but
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: it's hard to find out where it's going to go
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: aside from maybe him, and I do think Curtis Campbell
• 4:12
  Speaker 4: will get a decent amount as well.
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah, he probably does, but again, once you start going
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: Parnas and then Campbell, $ 9, 300, $ 9, 500, the two most expensive,
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: you kind of go down a similar path as others,
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: but Let's get right into it. Bottom to top like usual.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: The first fight of the night. Delphine Benuch taking on
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: Sofia Montenegro. Delphine minus 145. Montenegro plus 124. This is
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: the most likely fight to go the distance on the
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: card at minus 220. Delphine plus 335 inside the distance.
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: Montenegro plus 375. So yeah, mid-tier fight. Most likely go
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: the distance on the card in a range with two
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: mid-tier fights that are expected to finish. For me, this one,
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: I'd rather save the $ 800 in Sophia because if she
• 5:01
  Speaker 2: wins and she scores 78, at least she has a
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: chance at the optimal. On the other side, for Delphine,
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: if she does and scores 78, it's hard for her
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: to get there. So naturally, give me Sophia. Money line's
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: relatively close. Her inside the distance is fine. I don't
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: love this fight. Do you like this fight?
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: I don't, I don't love it, but I do think
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: it's a way that we can get different.
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: I'm not really impressed with either one of them, but
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: they are both fighters who will push forward and kind
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: of bring a pace. And I think that could make
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: this a high volume striking match. And I also think
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: we can see takedowns, multiple takedowns from either side in
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: this one too. So I just think it'll be a
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: fun fight for as long as it lasts, probably will
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: go to a decision. I think Montenegro is probably more
• 5:44
  Speaker 4: dangerous early than, But then the longer the fight goes,
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: I think it just kind of shifts into Benoitch's favor.
• 5:53
  Speaker 4: I think she is the one that is going to
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: have the better cardio.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: I think she's more durable as well.
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: Montenegro really wears the damage as the fight moves along too.
• 6:03
  Speaker 4: So I think that that'll shift the judges over to
• 6:05
  Speaker 4: the Benoitch side. And I also think the longer it goes,
• 6:09
  Speaker 4: the more likely Benoitch is to land a takedown. And
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: I think she could be heavy with her volume on
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: the ground too. So this is like my favorite get
• 6:16
  Speaker 4: different fight on the card. Start off right away knowing
• 6:20
  Speaker 4: where you're sitting. So I'd probably be overweight to both
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: sides if I'm MMEing. I would probably want to save
• 6:27
  Speaker 4: the $ 800 as well if I am just making one
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: lineup and using this fight.
• 6:31
  Speaker 3: All right. Yeah.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: So you like to fight a little more than the
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: field is expected to like it again. I don't think
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: much ownership goes to this one on either side. Delphine
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: probably lower own than Sophia. Yeah, I don't hate it.
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: 20 teams or more. Mix in a little Delphine.
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: Hope it is.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: The pace is pushed. Maybe she'll get a takedown or two.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: But Sophia, our preferred play for the savings. Right in
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: the mid tier as well. This is one of the
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: two mid tier fights expected to finish though. And then
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: have we seen a lot of line movement? Oh shoot.
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: I was getting ahead of myself. I mean, this is
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: one of the two fights expected to finish. I was
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: about to say the wrong name though for fight odds.
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: So we got Michael El George minus one 30 Fabia
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: sent us plus one 11. This fight is minus one
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: 35 to finish. uh hopefully fight odds there we go
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: inside the distance prop individual for the aljori side is
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: plus 185 for synthesis plus 250 round one props plus
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: 475 plus 650 so not too much round one upside
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: in this one but it is a mid-tier fight like
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: we just talked about 100 less is michael the fight's
• 7:36
  Speaker 2: expected to finish how do you compare this fight to
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: the last fight what do you expect to add more of.
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: I think that I'll probably be close to the same,
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: but I think the field will be higher on this
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: fight because I don't know that it's more binary, but
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: I do look at it as Al Jaroosh is the
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: better striker in this one and Sintes is the better grappler.
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: So it could just go either way where we get
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: a high score if they kind of dictate where the
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: fight takes place. But I think it'll be back and forth.
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: I'm not really confident on either side of this one. Uh,
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: Sintes being the grappler, if he wins, I think he's
• 8:07
  Speaker 4: looking at a higher ceiling and really any of his wins.
• 8:10
  Speaker 4: Cause I think most of his moments would have to
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: come place, uh, take place on the ground. And I
• 8:15
  Speaker 4: think he's live for a submission really in any round
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: as well.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Al Jarreau is.
• 8:19
  Speaker 4: Just a cleaner, more technical striker. I think he's a
• 8:22
  Speaker 4: lot faster as well. So if he can stuff takedowns,
• 8:24
  Speaker 4: it wouldn't shock me to see him get a knockout. Uh,
• 8:27
  Speaker 4: but if it goes the distance and it's a back
• 8:29
  Speaker 4: and forth fight, I just don't know what kind of
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: score we're going to get from this one.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if they'll hit a 10 X.
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: So, I think with the ownership already being there, I
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: don't really want to get too overweight. I would rather
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: get different on that first fight just because it should
• 8:41
  Speaker 4: be lower ownership on both sides.
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: But I'll take Al Jarrouj.
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: I just was more impressed with his striking than I
• 8:47
  Speaker 4: was Sintas' grappling.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: Fair enough. And yeah, the props do indicate what you're thinking.
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: So Aljaroos is plus 275 by KO since it's plus 800.
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: But by submission, Aljaroos plus 950 since it's plus 375.
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: So books see it as a clash of styles as well.
• 9:05
  Speaker 2: We have a pretty close money line clash of styles.
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: And one guy who is the grappler is 600 cheaper.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: That does lead me to the synthes side as my
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: preferred play, not the strongest lean though.
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: I do prefer I'll I got this fight. Definitely. In
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: my opinion, it's better than the first fight.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: The numbers, obviously with the fight expected to finish makes sense,
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: but this fight will be a little higher owned last note.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: I want to make in terms of, Line movement, minus 230,
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: Aljuruj opened up. And then shortly after, it was like
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: two hours after, it was a coin flip at minus 110.
• 9:39
  Speaker 2: Then he took money all the way to minus 165
• 9:41
  Speaker 2: and Sintes got a little money back. But yeah, this
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: line has bounced around a decent bit. Sintes, my preferred play. Montenegro,
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: my preferred play to start it off. Two mid-tier fighters
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: in the 7K range that I will be having exposure.
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: To this week.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: What's going on, Stat? Great to see you. Going to
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: have to dabble. Going to have to dabble. No PGA NFL. Yeah.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: Soon, though.
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: Soon, Stat. You will not have to worry about that.
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Let's keep it rolling. Next fight on the card. Umar Asai,
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: Modestus Bukaukis. Umar Asai, minus 211. Modestus is plus 178.
• 10:14
  Speaker 2: Plus 100 for this fight to finish. C plus one
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: 80 inside the distance. Modest is plus three 40 looking
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: at the fight to finish open minus one 10 now
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: plus 100 looking at the money line. C open minus
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: two 35 shortly after it was minus one 75.
• 10:33
  Speaker 3: And he has taken money since then.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: This is not one that I have too much interest in.
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: If you look just on the stone, both guys are less.
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: Than 3.5 significant strikes per minute. If C wins or
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: if C's optimal, I think he has to wrestle in
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: this one. Modestus, he probably just needs to find the chin.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: I don't think either really pushed too much of a pace. 8,800
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: is expensive and a good upper tier. I guess Modestus
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: may be your pass, but I don't really like him
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: much since I think he loses.
• 11:01
  Speaker 3: So I'll let you break this one down.
• 11:04
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think both guys are alive for a knockout
• 11:07
  Speaker 4: and we could get a hundred plus that way, but
• 11:09
  Speaker 4: they are just too low volume to imagine any chance
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: at a high score. If this fight does get extended,
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: If it does get extended, I think that C is
• 11:17
  Speaker 4: the better one with his wrestling potential. I think he
• 11:20
  Speaker 4: could wrestle in all three rounds, land a lot of
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: top control time. I just don't think he would be
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: super active on the ground, even if he wasn't top
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: control that long, to score 100-plus in a decision in
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: this one. So I have it as a three-star, but
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: C is my preferred play of the two. I just
• 11:37
  Speaker 4: think he has more ways to score over 10x that $ 8, 800 mark.
• 11:41
  Speaker 4: salary and then Bukowskis I mean he's the the more
• 11:44
  Speaker 4: technical striker with knockout power as well but he's just
• 11:48
  Speaker 4: so low volume that if it makes it out of
• 11:50
  Speaker 4: the the second round even in a third round knockout
• 11:53
  Speaker 4: as an underdog I wouldn't feel good about him scoring
• 11:55
  Speaker 4: well especially if he's going to be laying on his
• 11:58
  Speaker 4: back the first two rounds so uh probably mostly anyways
• 12:01
  Speaker 4: see her pass for me Yeah.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: This isn't a fight. We started off with three fights.
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: The first fight I think was okay. It's going to
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: be a low wound at least. Second fight, solid. I
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: think this is probably the worst fight of the three
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: that we've talked about so far, though.
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: So I won't be hoping.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: It's a relatively slow start to the card in terms
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: of DFS scores. Now this next fight, this is one
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: of Big Marley's three five-star fights.
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: It is the second most likely to.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: Actually, it's the most likely to finish on the card. Yeah,
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: most likely at minus... No, excuse me, main events the
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: most likely, minus 600. Heavyweight fight, minus 500 to finish.
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: Mario Pinto, minus 275. Ryan Spann, plus 228. Pinto, individual
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: inside the distance, minus 230.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Spann, plus 380.
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: Pinto in round one, plus 150. Spann, plus.
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: 400. I'm not going to lie. I just think his
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: odds are a little wide. I get Pinto is 12
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: and oh, he's seven years younger. His last fight was
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: not the best of looks, but I mean, Ryan spans,
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: he's dangerous wherever the fight goes. When he is fresh
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: early in the rounds, he could knock out Pinto. He
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: could grab a neck. He could do, I mean, pretty
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: much anything. I think that Pinto can do. Ryan span
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: can do as well. Now I do worry about span
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: as the fight goes on. But yeah, 7,100, he's one
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: of my favorite underdog plays on the slate. Almost all
• 13:21
  Speaker 2: of his wins should be optimal. And then on Pinto,
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: I mean, of course, he's minus 230 inside the distance.
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: That's second best on the slate behind the main event favorites.
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: And he's plus 150 in round one, which is the actual,
• 13:34
  Speaker 2: the best run one prop on the slate. So yeah,
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: it's really hard to ignore Pinto. 9,100 is a great price.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: Ownership will come with him though. I think he'll be
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: one of the highest owned on the slate. I'm hoping
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: Spann's ownership stays in check, leverage all the upside in
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: the world. I think the line is wide. Give me
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: Spann in this one.
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: What about you?
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going to be on the Pinto side, but
• 13:55
  Speaker 4: Spann does make a lot of sense as an underdog
• 13:58
  Speaker 4: with 100-point potential. I think if Spann wins, he's going
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: to be on the optimal lineup. I think it would
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: be 95 or more from any Spann score.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: He is dangerous with submissions.
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: He's also got knockout power in the first round, but
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: he's just one of those guys that can fall apart.
• 14:13
  Speaker 4: He's not a real good wrestler. And after the first round,
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: I just don't expect much from Spann. I think it
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: would just shift into Pinto's favor. And I think the
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: finish for him would be there eventually, whether it be
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: the second round or even the third round. He could
• 14:25
  Speaker 4: be the one mixing in takedowns. I think he is
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: the better wrestler here. I also think he's the better striker,
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: more knockout power. So Pinto is my pick.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: I think it could be in any.
• 14:35
  Speaker 4: Round for him. But for Spann, I think it's more
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: round one or pass. But at 7,100, you'll need him
• 14:41
  Speaker 4: if he gets it done.
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: You're on mute.
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah, thank you.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: On the laptop, it's always a little more difficult, even
• 14:50
  Speaker 2: though I did do that last week as well. Spann
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: took a decent amount of money on the round one prop.
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: It opened plus 500, now plus 400. So people are
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: seeing it the same way. Most of Spann's win equity
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: is going to be early when he is fresh.
• 15:05
  Speaker 3: All right.
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: Again, appreciate everyone hanging out. All we ask is the
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: like button and the subscribe button. It helps us out
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: a ton. Hope everybody's ready for a great weekend. Again,
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: it's not just MMA going on. We got college football
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: back as well in week one. We got NASCAR on Sunday.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: A lot of money to be made. MLB, of course,
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: still going on. We would love to have you at
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: the nation. A lot of different options to join. And
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: then a week from today, NFL cannot wait for that. Massive,
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: massive prizes in week one, like always. All right, let's
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: go to a mid-tier fight. The second most likely to
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: go the distance on the card, Nora Cornhole, minus 121.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: Claudia Segula, plus 104, plus 155 for this fight to finish. Cornhole,
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: plus 195 inside the distance. Segula, plus 650. I've been
• 15:51
  Speaker 2: a little torn on this one, so I'll let you
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: go first, but it's expected to go the distance. Cornhole,
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: only minus 121 favor. It's not great, but man, to
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: see her plus 195 inside the distance, that's a lot
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: of that's a lot of inside the distance equity finish
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: equity for a pretty short money line. So I expect
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: low ownership on both sides.
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: What are you going to do in this one?
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be on Segula or pass for this one.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: I just don't really want to play cornhole.
• 16:18
  Speaker 4: I think if she were to get a finish, she
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: could definitely score well, but I think that line, that sounds.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: Too low to me.
• 16:25
  Speaker 4: I don't know that her chances are that good. I
• 16:27
  Speaker 4: would give her the grappling edge in this one, the
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: ground and pound edge as well. But she's too low
• 16:31
  Speaker 4: volume on the feet. I think Segula kind of walks
• 16:34
  Speaker 4: away with this one if it's a 15-minute striking match.
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: I favor Segula, actually.
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: I think the line should have been flipped from the get-go.
• 16:42
  Speaker 4: So give me Segula to win. I will play some
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: of her. I think she scored over 90 in both
• 16:46
  Speaker 4: of her wins on DraftKings, 92 and 90.4. So I'm
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: definitely cool with either one of those scores at 7,900.
• 16:54
  Speaker 4: I also don't think that ownership will be too high either.
• 16:57
  Speaker 4: So Segula, overweight play for me. cornhole likely a full.
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: Fade i was the that always price shop in any
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: df or in any sports betting that you make uh
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: obviously mma though i've talked about it before it can
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: be one of the most like where you see the
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: biggest discrepancies between uh Some of these books, like plus 195,
• 17:21
  Speaker 2: BetOnline has for inside the distance prop. And then if
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: you go to BetRivers, it's plus 255. I mean, 60 cents,
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: that's a lot when you're talking about that. So make
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: sure it's a price shot for sure. Plus 195 prop
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: is definitely best in the market or worst in the market,
• 17:37
  Speaker 2: depending on which way you want to look. But that's
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: a good number if she's going to be 15% owned
• 17:41
  Speaker 2: or 14% owned or whatever it may be. as a
• 17:45
  Speaker 2: way to get different in the mid tier. So I
• 17:47
  Speaker 2: am probably going to play a little bit of both
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: sides in this one. I like your points on Segula though.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: How would you rank Segula, Sintas and Montenegro all in
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: the same 7,900, 78, 77.
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: Man.
• 17:57
  Speaker 4: Um, since I'm picking Segula to win, I think the
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: other two are losing. She would be my favorite, but
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: I think that they're all just kind of toss in
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: plays where, uh, Maybe you use two of the three.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Maybe you get one of the three.
• 18:15
  Speaker 4: And I feel like I'll be relying on at least
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: one of them in most of my lineups. I think
• 18:20
  Speaker 4: there's a handful of dogs you can play this week,
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: but I think they are all very live to win
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: down there.
• 18:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure. Definitely all live.
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: In terms of upside, I would probably rank them Sintes, Segula,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: Montenegro maybe? Actually, no, I'm going to go Sintes, Montenegro,
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: Segula for my upside.
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: What about you? On average, if you know they win,
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: how are you ranking the upside of them?
• 18:47
  Speaker 4: Yeah, Sintes, then Segula, then Montenegro. I think the best
• 18:54
  Speaker 4: Montenegro score probably beats the best Segula score because it
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: could be a round one finish where I really don't
• 18:59
  Speaker 4: see that too much. for Segula, but I think Segula
• 19:02
  Speaker 4: hits 90 a lot more often in her wins than Montenegro.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: Makes a lot of sense for sure. All right, let's
• 19:08
  Speaker 2: keep it rolling to another mid-tier fight. This is one
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: of the best on the card though. I mean, anytime
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: you see 8,208 K and a fight minus 400 to finish,
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: you got to have interest.
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: And that is what we have here.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: We got Mateu Duclos minus 110, Luis Felipe Diaz minus 106,
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: minus 400 for this fight to finish.
• 19:28
  Speaker 3: Diaz plus 110 inside the distance. Duclos plus 150.
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: Now we got to talk some line movement in this
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: one because Luis Diaz opened minus 265 and then Duclos
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: just took tons of money. Looking at the under and
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: a half, it opened minus 115, now minus 135.
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: Again, both individual inside the distance props are great.
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: Diaz round one plus 300, Duclos plus 325.
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: I just want to slam this fight as much as
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: I can.
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: When I'm In terms of picking a winner, I'm going
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: to go with the line movement and Duclos.
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: So I like that he's also 200 more, hoping he's
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: going to be a.
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: Little lower owned. Confidence is very low, though. Again, when
• 20:08
  Speaker 2: I see line movement that big, it means something to me.
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: I don't know too much about either of these fighters.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: All I know is I want probably 85% plus of
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: this fight, ideally.
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: So what are your thoughts?
• 20:21
  Speaker 4: Yeah, with it being right there in the mid-range, I
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: think this is the best fight to target on the card.
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: Because it can really go either way.
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: I think that Diaz is the more powerful guy. I
• 20:33
  Speaker 4: think in round one, he's live to knock Duclos out
• 20:37
  Speaker 4: on the feet. But Diaz is the better grappler, better wrestler.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: In this one.
• 20:41
  Speaker 4: I think he could get a submission on the ground,
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: maybe even a ground-and-pound finish. But I think round one,
• 20:46
  Speaker 4: Diaz is more dangerous and is very live for 100-plus points.
• 20:50
  Speaker 4: After round one, I think that power starts to wear
• 20:53
  Speaker 4: on Diaz. And Duclos is just the better overall striker
• 20:57
  Speaker 4: from round one to round three. I think he just
• 21:00
  Speaker 4: would have to weather a storm in round one and
• 21:03
  Speaker 4: maybe come back, win round two. But I think he
• 21:06
  Speaker 4: would just overwhelm Diaz and put him away on the feet,
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: maybe get a couple of knockdowns on the route or
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: on the way there. So both sides, a hundred plus upside.
• 21:16
  Speaker 4: I would rather have I guess I'd rather have Diaz
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: just because he's cheaper. I think I picked him. I
• 21:23
  Speaker 4: think he was an underdog, though, when I picked him.
• 21:25
  Speaker 4: So it was really kind of a plus money either
• 21:30
  Speaker 4: way for me. But I'd rather save the $ 200, make
• 21:32
  Speaker 4: some lineups I wouldn't be able to make with too close.
• 21:35
  Speaker 4: But either way, man, just make sure you're throwing this
• 21:37
  Speaker 4: fight into the majority of your lineups if you're shooting
• 21:41
  Speaker 4: for first.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if I had to pick one fight on the
• 21:44
  Speaker 2: card to have 100% of, it is this fight for me. Again,
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: it's 8,208K minus 135 is under one and a half.
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: And it's tough to make a decision on which one
• 21:53
  Speaker 2: you're having. Ideally, I'm probably going to be around 50-50
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: or 60-40. Again, Duclos was my preferred side because of
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: the line movement. It's not a strong stance, though. I
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: don't feel strongly about it. But props are backing up
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: what Big Marley says. in terms of on the mat,
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: it is all Felipe Diaz. He's plus 350 by sub,
• 22:14
  Speaker 2: where Duclos is plus 1,800. But for KO, Diaz plus 275,
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Duclos plus 175. So that is a little interesting. Great
• 22:24
  Speaker 2: to see you, Nicholas Vance. Hope you're doing well. Hope
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: everybody out there doing well, ready for a great week
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: of college football, MMA, NASCAR, and MLB the last week
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: and before NFL takes over most of our lives for
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: the foreseeable future.
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: All right, let's get to, I mean, usually an absolute banger.
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: And when you see the name Trevor peak, I'm always
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: excited for these fights or his fights. Curtis Campbell on
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: this 360 Trevor peak plus two 89 minus two 15
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish Campbell minus one 55 inside
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: the distance peak plus five 50 Campbell round one, um,
• 23:01
  Speaker 2: Hold on, where did that go? Campbell round one plus
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: 175 after opening plus 195, Peek in round one plus 1,200.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: We haven't seen Trevor Peek for a little bit. Curtis Campbell, though,
• 23:13
  Speaker 2: he seems, I want to say the real deal.
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know.
• 23:18
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to be saying he's going to be
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: a top five fighter when it's all, or in the
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: division when it's all said and done, but man, I
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: think he can get this fight to the mat, and
• 23:25
  Speaker 2: when he does, I think he's going to look levels
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: above Trevor Peek, so.
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: It's Campbell for me. I think it's Campbell pretty easy.
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: I guess I get concerned the longer the fight goes.
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: If he gets it to the mat, Pete keeps getting up.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: He makes Campbell work. Then I could see Campbell slowing
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: down and Pete just willing himself to a win. But yeah,
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: I think this would be Campbell. It mainly comes down
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: to the 9,300 price tag for me.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah. Another one I want to be really heavy on.
• 23:52
  Speaker 4: I think this fight is going to go just either
• 23:55
  Speaker 4: clearly in Campbell's favor or Pete keeps getting up, wears
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: Campbell down, and then Peek is the harder worker, the
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: guy who will fight for your money. He's like an
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: awkward striker, but I'd say he is the better striker,
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: much more dangerous on the feet. I think eventually he
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: would knock out Campbell if Campbell's not able to put
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: him away on the mat. But I do love the
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: style from Campbell. He's not really looking to spend too
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: much time on the feet. He's going to go for
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: takedowns early and often. Um, if Pete gets back up,
• 24:25
  Speaker 4: he's going to go for takedowns again. So he's just
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: the DFS style. I really liked to target. I think
• 24:29
  Speaker 4: he could get it done in round one. And I
• 24:31
  Speaker 4: also think, uh, he could wrestle for three rounds and
• 24:35
  Speaker 4: just rack up top control fight for different submissions, but
• 24:38
  Speaker 4: clearly win all three rounds and score. Well, peak was
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: just taken down nine times in his last fight. I
• 24:45
  Speaker 4: think Campbell has that in play if this were to
• 24:47
  Speaker 4: go 15 minutes. So, uh, Campbell is one of my
• 24:49
  Speaker 4: favorite payups, if not my favorite payup on the card. Um,
• 24:53
  Speaker 4: But the lineups I don't have him in, I really
• 24:55
  Speaker 4: want to make sure I have Pete because I think
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: one of these two is going to get a finish
• 24:58
  Speaker 4: probably before round three and put up a big score.
• 25:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm hoping that there's some recency bias on
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: this one. Obviously, Campbell let people down last fight against
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: Danny Silva. I do think Danny Silva is pretty good.
• 25:10
  Speaker 2: He came in with a phenomenal game plan and put
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: Campbell away. But Campbell still landed two takedowns in that one.
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: I think he learns from that fight. He still is
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: only 24 years old. That was his first loss. And, yeah,
• 25:22
  Speaker 2: just Peek's aggressive style, I think, should open up takedowns
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: for Campbell. And he obviously has a lot of upside
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: at minus 155 inside the distance and plus 175.
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: In round one.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: All right, we will keep it rolling to the next
• 25:38
  Speaker 2: fight on the card. We got Daniil Donchenko taking on
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: Punaheli Soriano. Donchenko, minus 249. Soriano, plus 206. Minus 215
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. Donchenko, minus 145 inside the distance. Soriano,
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: plus 480. then Chanko in round one plus one 90.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, there's not really too much bad to say,
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: but in this one, I don't think Don Chanko is
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: a wild man. He throws a ton of volume. Like
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: you can see on the feet, Soriano wrestling background kind
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: of fell in love with his hand Southpaw guy with
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: power in his left hand. I think you should try
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: and mix in takedowns in this one though, which I mean,
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: that's what I want. I'm definitely going to play some
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: Soriano at 7,200. since he has power to knock anyone
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: out and wrestle I'm definitely going to play some Donchenko
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: at 9k though inside the distance prop good round one
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: prop good multiple knockdown upside volume is great Soriano's tough
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: I guess that's the one concern for me um but
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: yeah take this one away what are you doing in
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: this one.
• 26:35
  Speaker 4: Yeah I'm gonna be using both of them I think
• 26:37
  Speaker 4: Donchenko gets the win though I just think he is
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: gonna be able to keep this fight on the feet
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: and he is the the more dangerous striker the one
• 26:44
  Speaker 4: who will be pushing forward and Using all of his
• 26:46
  Speaker 4: striking tools, he's nasty with elbows. When it gets in
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: the pocket, I think he'd really hurt Soriano. And he's
• 26:52
  Speaker 4: just a better all-around striker. Soriano's got big-time knockout power,
• 26:56
  Speaker 4: but he's, I think, more of just a basic striker.
• 26:58
  Speaker 4: He's the one that would be our, I don't think
• 27:01
  Speaker 4: he's a good grappler, but I think he's the better
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: offensive wrestler, and he could rack up multiple takedowns in
• 27:07
  Speaker 4: this fight, maybe have success in top control. But Donchenko, man,
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: he's nasty in top control, too. If he's able to
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: get takedowns of his own, Soriano could be in trouble
• 27:15
  Speaker 4: on the bottom as well. So I like both sides,
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: assuming this fight is to end inside the distance. My
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: worry and the reason I didn't put it as a
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: five star would be if it goes the distance. I
• 27:25
  Speaker 4: still favor Donchenko to win. But since he is primarily
• 27:28
  Speaker 4: a striker, I don't know if he would pay off
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: a nine K salary in a decision win.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: So that's why I put it as a four star.
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: But I mean, you could put five.
• 27:37
  Speaker 4: Five-star fights on this fight, I think, or on this
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: fight card, I think.
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I would also have this as a four-star.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: Part of it, it opened minus 250 to finish, now
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: minus 215, and it was minus 250 Monday. Now Wednesday,
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: it's minus 215, so over a little bit of money.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: And Donchenko just doesn't wrestle at a 9K price tag.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: So if he does win a decision, I do find
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: it very hard for Donchenko to to be optimal. If
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: that's the case, if Soriano wins a decision, I'm thinking
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: it's probably coming with wrestling.
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: Donchenko throws enough volume. I have a hard time.
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: Believing he'd be like lulled in to a boring striking match.
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: So I think that's the main thing Donchenko, if Soriano
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: just continues to be very tough and hard to put
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: away or Soriano wins round one wrestling Donchenko off his back,
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: Donchenko wins two and three, or maybe gets a third
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: round knockout. So At 9K, it's not an all-in fight
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: for me. I would have it just like you do
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: as well with a four-star, but it is a good
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: one to target. All right, five fights left. Not my
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: favorite to target. I'm very curious to hear your take
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: when it comes to this one. We got Felipe Lima,
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: minus 180, taking that Morgan Charrier, plus 153, plus 120
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. Lima, plus 240 inside the distance. Charrier,
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: plus 150. three 25. My initial thought was not to
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: have much of this fight at all. It's expected to
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: go the distance. Neither guy throws much volume on the feet,
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: but then if you look at the takedowns per 15 minutes,
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: both guys average two. So then it's like, all right,
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: if both guys do have some takedown upside at 8,900, 7,300
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: at what should be low ownership on both sides, then
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: I came around a little bit Lima. He shot 15
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: takedowns against Talbot.
• 29:19
  Speaker 3: I love that. Even though he lost the fight, he
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: didn't win.
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: If you're shooting 15 takedowns, you're going to be someone
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: that I'm going to have to have you in my
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: pool at 8,900 Shari a side. I mean, he's 7,300
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: is the better striker and he can wrestle, maybe get reversals, whatever.
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: So I came into this fight, not expecting to have much.
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: Now I'm probably going to cap it because my initial
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: lean still doesn't think it's optimal, but I do think
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: there's past at low ownership in chalk, your lineups to
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: play this.
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: So yeah, very, very curious to hear your take on
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: real life and DFS. What do you think of this one?
• 29:54
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I put it as a three-star because I am
• 29:57
  Speaker 4: picking Morgan to get the win, and he is only 7,300.
• 30:01
  Speaker 4: But I do think it's much closer to a two-star
• 30:04
  Speaker 4: than it is a four-star, and I might play it
• 30:07
  Speaker 4: as a two-star as well. I think that most of
• 30:10
  Speaker 4: this fight probably does take place on the feet. I
• 30:13
  Speaker 4: think Morgan is the better striker of the two. I
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: think he has more knockout power as well. But I
• 30:18
  Speaker 4: think both guys are durable enough to go 15.
• 30:20
  Speaker 3: Lima....
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: He is the better grappler in my opinion.
• 30:24
  Speaker 4: I think both guys are decent at offensive wrestling, but
• 30:27
  Speaker 4: Liam was just more dangerous on the ground to the
• 30:29
  Speaker 4: more well-rounded grappler as a whole. He's just not active
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: enough to really pay off an $ 8, 900 salary, uh, without
• 30:38
  Speaker 4: a finish. I think if it goes the distance, even
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: if he is shooting 15 takedowns, I don't think he's
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: going to land more than like four or five of them.
• 30:45
  Speaker 4: And I don't know that he's going to do enough
• 30:46
  Speaker 4: on the ground to, to pay off that price tag
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: in a decision. So I'm going to be low on
• 30:51
  Speaker 4: Lima and, I think the money line makes sense just
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: based on his well-rounded skills, but I would still rather
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: take my chances on Morgan because I think he is
• 30:59
  Speaker 4: the better striker. He's the one fighting in his home country.
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: He's going to have the crowd behind him. So at $ 7, 300,
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: he's one of the cheaper guys on the card that
• 31:08
  Speaker 4: I'm really looking to go to and one of the
• 31:11
  Speaker 4: few owners I picked to win outright.
• 31:15
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I can't argue that one bit.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: I'll probably have– Underweight this fight, I'll have probably a
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: little more Lima than you. You might even have zero,
• 31:24
  Speaker 2: but he shot 15 takedowns. He has a way to
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: get different at 8,900. We talked about Donchenko for 100 more.
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: We talked about Curtis Campbell. We talked about Pinto. If
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: Lima is on the optimal, that's when you're looking at
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: five or less dupes, and you can have a lot
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: more chalk around it.
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: Don't love the fight, but it's not a full fade
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: for me. Next fight on the.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: Card, Lusin Keita taking on Mohamed Naimov. Keita, the second
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: biggest favorite on the card at minus 350. Naimov, plus 280,
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: minus 170 for this fight to finish. Keita, minus 135
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: inside the distance. Naimov, plus 625. Keita, round one, plus 230. Open,
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: plus 275. So some money has come in on him
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: for round one.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: Also on the inside of the distance, he opened minus
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: 115 today.
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: Now minus 135, not the best debut for Kata losing
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: to Nathaniel Wood.
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: It was a close fight though.
• 32:24
  Speaker 2: If you want to play MMA math, you're going to
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: pick Naimov because Naimov beat Wood, Wood beat Kata. And
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: now Naimov is taking on Kata as the dog. Obviously
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: doesn't always work like that, but I'm looking at this
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: as a striker and Kata versus the wrestler. And Naimov,
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: do you see it the same way and how do
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: you think it goes down?
• 32:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that Kata wins the striking, but if
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: he is to lose the fight, it's probably because Nemov
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: landed takedowns along the way. If Nemov's chin could hold up,
• 32:54
  Speaker 4: I think he could strike with Kata, but Kata's just nasty.
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: He's so explosive, so powerful, and I don't think Nemov's
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: going to eat those shots very well.
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: So I like Kata to get the knockout.
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: At 9,200, we need him to get the knockout, though,
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: because he's not going to go out there and out-wrestle Nemov.
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: And he's not going to be high enough volume to
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: pay off 9,200 in a decision either. So we really
• 33:16
  Speaker 4: need a first-round knockout from Keita. Maybe that's where I
• 33:20
  Speaker 4: would max out my exposure for him. Nemov, just one
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: of those dogs that is in play who's going to
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: need to grapple to win at 7K. If he wins,
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: he's got a good chance of being on the optimal.
• 33:32
  Speaker 4: It would really depend on what other dogs win as well.
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: Like if Spann were to win, I think Spann's already
• 33:37
  Speaker 4: on the optimal. And Nemov would be fighting to be
• 33:39
  Speaker 4: the second dog on there. But at 7K, I think
• 33:42
  Speaker 4: he has a decent chance. So I'm not going to
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: count him out. But I think this is closer to
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: a three-star than it is a five-star for me.
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would probably agree that it's closer to three
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: to five. But I have interest on both sides. My
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: interest on Keita is I think he's going to be
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: lower owned than Campbell, lower owned than the main favorite,
• 34:02
  Speaker 2: lower owned than Pinto, lower owned than Donchenko. So he's
• 34:05
  Speaker 2: already going to be a way to differentiate in the
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: upper tier compared And I put the same thing in
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: the slate plan. I want to cap them at his
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: round one prop, which is about 30%. Not all round
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: one wins will be optimal, but if I know he's
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: getting around one win, I'll take my chances.
• 34:22
  Speaker 3: That would, I expect to be relatively low ownership. Now
• 34:25
  Speaker 3: I'm off on the other side.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: I do expect to be low on and his win
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: odds are, If you look at plus two 80 is 26%.
• 34:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, 26%.
• 34:33
  Speaker 2: If I know nine mobs winning, I think most of
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: his wins will be optimal since I think that's going
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: to come with a good amount of wrestling and control time,
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: or maybe he does big Kata at seven K. I
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: will definitely take my chances. So I'm going to be
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: overweight nine mob Kata around the field. Maybe like nine miles.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: My preferred play in this one, again, his chances of winning,
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: not great, but when he wins and at his ownership,
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: I think he has a strong play that way.
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: So yeah, Give me name of my preferred play.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: I think Kata does have solid round one upside though,
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: as shown with him taking money plus two 75 now
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: plus two 30. I'm going to play some of this
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: fight and I don't think the field is going to
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: want to get to this one too much.
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: What's up lone wolf. Great to see you. I hope
• 35:15
  Speaker 3: you're doing well.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: Before we talk about the last four fights again, just
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: want to head on over to to the ship a
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: nation homepage. You can see, I love seeing this NFL
• 35:23
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• 35:26
  Speaker 2: time for NFL season. Also running back ship at games,
• 35:30
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• 35:34
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• 35:45
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• 35:48
  Speaker 2: qualified for that.
• 35:49
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• 35:51
  Speaker 2: If you want, if you are playing multiple lineups, the
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: more lineups core to starter, you get a hundred lineups
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: of core 500 lineups with starter. And if you want
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: the ultimate package with the Sims and 5,000 lineups starter
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: as well, you do get Saber Sims projections and ownership.
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: In addition to ours. So you are able to average
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: them out and use a different set as well. If
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: you like that, if you play sports like WNBA or
• 36:18
  Speaker 2: sports that we do not offer, but Saberson does and
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: has projections for you also do get that in the
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: starter package as well. If you join annual versus monthly,
• 36:27
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• 36:31
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• 36:34
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• 36:37
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• 36:41
  Speaker 2: to the Discord. Everything goes up on Friday. Projections, ownership,
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: Slate Station, everything you need to be successful. We would
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: love to have you at The Nation. Again, definitely do
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: join the Discord. If you do join any package, that
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: is available for that. All right, three fights left.
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: Excuse me.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: We got Michael Page, minus 159. Nurzitan Ruziboya, plus 136.
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: Plus 120 for this fight to finish. The underdog in Ruziboya,
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: better inside the distance profit, plus 250 for Page, plus 315.
• 37:13
  Speaker 3: I'll let you start this one off. What do you see?
• 37:16
  Speaker 4: I'm a long-term Page fader. I'll never use him on DraftKings.
• 37:22
  Speaker 4: So he's the first person I'm going to X out.
• 37:24
  Speaker 4: That's where I'll start my lineups. Um, if he is
• 37:27
  Speaker 4: to get a first round win really in any fight,
• 37:29
  Speaker 4: you'll know, you're not going to see me towards the top. Uh,
• 37:32
  Speaker 4: but he's won like four of his five fights. If
• 37:35
  Speaker 4: you give him the win in the fifth one, he
• 37:37
  Speaker 4: still averages less than 50 DraftKings points. So I just
• 37:41
  Speaker 4: hate his style. He's got such an awkward style and
• 37:44
  Speaker 4: he is dangerous that it really hurts his opponents as well.
• 37:47
  Speaker 4: So I think this will be a low volume striking
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: match for as long as it takes place on the feet.
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: Either guy could get a knockout more likely it would
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: be page. I would think But Ruzaboyev should be looking
• 37:58
  Speaker 4: to grapple in this one. He is the better grappler.
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: I think he could wrestle his way to a decision
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: or grapple his way to a submission. So I'll be
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: on Ruzaboyev. Just not too heavy, though, just because of
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: Page's style. I don't feel good about Ruzaboyev winning. I
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: just know that I'm going to be rooting against Page,
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: so why not root for Ruzaboyev at the same time?
• 38:19
  Speaker 3: I agree with all that.
• 38:20
  Speaker 2: The only problem for Rudnit Boyev is I think he's
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: probably going to be the most popular underdog in the
• 38:26
  Speaker 2: lower tier. When you see 7,500 and then you see, oh,
• 38:29
  Speaker 2: he's only plus 136 money line. Oh, and he's only
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: plus 250 inside the distance opening plus 280. Like all
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: of the props have gone his way. As you see
• 38:39
  Speaker 2: on Monday pages minus 185. Now he's minus one 59.
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: So a lot of money has come in on the
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: Roosie boy of side money line inside the distance.
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: Everything looks like a smash.
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: For Rudy boy of outside of the fact of, I mean,
• 38:54
  Speaker 2: Michael page, like you said, pages fighting style is the
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: worst in the, in the UFC, in my opinion. I mean,
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: props to him, his goal is to win and not
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: take damage. And he's very good at doing that. He's
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: just a counter expert. He's like, he's heavy on his feet,
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: but man, his left hand, his right hand is kicks.
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: You name it. I'm the feet.
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: He is a very scary guy and his opponents are
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: scared to engage with him because they're going to get
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: countered and pages speed at 39 is still insane. So
• 39:20
  Speaker 2: I'm going to be underweight. Roozie boy, since I think
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: he's popular and I'm just going to keep going into pages,
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: fighting style, makes fights so boring. I think page will
• 39:29
  Speaker 2: probably win a boring decision because Ruzzi boy is going
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: to be scared to engage pages. Take down defense is
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: also solid, only gotten better. as his career is going on,
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: obviously he and Gary beat him that way, but he
• 39:41
  Speaker 2: still had to work really hard to do so.
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: And I'm not going to play any page.
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: Like, like you said, I mean, the dude throws four
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: punches every single round. It seems if one of them
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: lands and he knocks them out.
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: I'll, I'll move on to next week and be totally
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: fine with that. So no page underweight, rosy boy. He's
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: a good play money line and inside the distance props.
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: With that being said, though, ownership, I think will be
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: over owned. And that's why I plan on being under.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: All right, two fights left. Again, like button helps us
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: out a ton. Subscribe button as well. Hope everyone's excited.
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: Has some plans this week. And if not, watch some
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: college football during the day and UFC at night. That's
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: a good way to spend your weekend for sure. Uh-oh,
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: co-main event time. I've been dried in this one. Far
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: is ZM minus 147. Axel Sola plus 126. Plus 135
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: for this fight to finish. ZM plus 240 inside the distance.
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: Axel plus 375. I mean, man, we're hyping up ZM
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: on the show, all of this, and then he goes
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: out and lays an absolute egg against Tom Nolan. Still
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: finds himself as a favorite. With that being said, though,
• 40:47
  Speaker 2: Sola has been the one to take money. ZM opened
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: minus 175 and now finds himself at minus 147.
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll let you start. I'll let you start, and
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: then I'll give my thoughts.
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: So I'm okay with both sides of this fight. Um,
• 41:05
  Speaker 4: I think Sola is the more aggressive fighter, the guy who, uh,
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: will probably come out hot in round one, trying to
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: get a finish. I would say he has more, I
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: don't know if he has more a hundred point upside.
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: I just expect his round one to be more likely
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: to happen than a ZM round one. But the longer
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: the fight goes, I think Sola is the one that
• 41:28
  Speaker 4: slows down. ZM I think can keep the same pace
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: for all 15 minutes. I like ZM to be the
• 41:34
  Speaker 4: more technical striker, probably the better wrestler at this point.
• 41:39
  Speaker 4: Just more ways to win in general. So I think
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: Axel wins the first round. ZM wins the second and
• 41:46
  Speaker 4: the third rounds, gets his hand raised via decision, and
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: that's probably not going to cut it at 8,600.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: So I lean.
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: Closer to a two-star than I do a four-star for
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: that reason, but I think both guys do have 90-plus
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: upside if they're to really show up and win all
• 42:01
  Speaker 4: three rounds or get a finish. I just think ZM
• 42:04
  Speaker 4: is the better, more well-rounded fighter. I just don't trust
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: his pace really in any given fight to score well
• 42:12
  Speaker 4: as a favorite. So I'm not sure what I'll do
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: with this one, but I put Sol as my preferred
• 42:16
  Speaker 4: play because I think more of his wins will be
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: on the optimal lineup at 7,600 than ZM's wins at 8,600.
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: A hundred percent.
• 42:24
  Speaker 2: I agree with that last statement and that it also
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: is why soul is my preferred play. But I also
• 42:29
  Speaker 2: think he's probably the second highest on a low, lower
• 42:33
  Speaker 2: tier fighter behind Ruzi boy of like we just talked
• 42:37
  Speaker 2: about and I'm picking ZM to win. I do like
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: solo more than Ruzi boy of though, because again, I
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: just page makes fights so boring. What would you said
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: the takedown both guys, I guess, takedown prop for ZM
• 42:52
  Speaker 2: and solo.
• 42:55
  Speaker 4: I'd probably go like one and a half for ZM,.
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: 5 for Sola.
• 43:00
  Speaker 3: Okay.
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: Because, man, I think if ZM is going to be
• 43:02
  Speaker 2: optimal in this one, I think more than likely it
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: probably is through wrestling. Like maybe he just has four
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: or five takedowns, seven minutes of control time. And I
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: don't think that's the most likely path for him, but
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: it is in play. I mean, Sola, like 12-1, 28
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: years old. His only loss was against Mason Jones where
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: I gave him– Like I raised his stock in that
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: Mason Jones fight, even though it was a loss comes
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: out there and dominates his Mel bomb theme.
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: So it was my preferred play.
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: Cause he's 7,600 and one K cheaper, but I am
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: taking ZM to win a decision. I don't love ZM
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: much though. He burned us last time. I'm not jumping
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: off the bandwagon. I still do think he's a good fighter.
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: Well-rounded fighter going to get back on track, but for DFS,
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: he's not my favorite this week in this matchup with
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: the fight expected to go the distance.
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: All right, let's head to the main events. The biggest favorite,
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: the highest price.
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: UFC debut is Saladin Harness, minus 625, taking on Dan Hooker,
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: plus 450, minus 600 for this fight to finish. Harness
• 44:04
  Speaker 2: minus 315 inside the distance hooker plus 500. Harness in
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: round one is plus 200. So I know I keep
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: butchering the dude's name. Harness, that's what I'm calling him
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: right now. You can correct it. But he has the
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: best inside the distance prop on the slates. However, he
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: has the second best round one prop at plus 200.
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: How does that make sense? You might wonder. Obviously, this
• 44:25
  Speaker 3: fight has 25 minutes.
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: Or could go 25 minutes where the Pinto fights cannot.
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: But what are your thoughts on this one? Are you
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: going to play any Dan Hangman hooker? How much Parnas
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: do you think you'd get with him being the chalkiest
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: on the card?
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: No, I doubt I would play hooker.
• 44:43
  Speaker 4: I think he would really just have to turn this
• 44:46
  Speaker 4: fight into a war and end up knocking out Parnas
• 44:50
  Speaker 4: to get his hand raised here. I just don't know
• 44:53
  Speaker 4: that at this stage in his career he's going to
• 44:55
  Speaker 4: be able to do that. I think Parnas is just
• 44:57
  Speaker 4: a better all-around striker. His kicks are way better. He's
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: a lot faster. He's got nasty body shots. So I
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: think he probably would win the striking. But he's got
• 45:07
  Speaker 4: an even bigger edge on the ground. I think he
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: could go out there and wrestle, get a submission in
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: any round. But if he wanted to wrestle for five rounds,
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: I think he could dominate Hooker that way too. So
• 45:17
  Speaker 4: he can really win this fight by any method. He
• 45:20
  Speaker 4: just doesn't want to turn this into a dogfight. Cause
• 45:24
  Speaker 4: that would give hooker a chance and maybe in his
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: home country, maybe he's more likely to do that. I
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: think minus 600 could be a little bit wide for
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: a debut against a guy like hooker, but he is.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: The full package.
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: I think he is going to make a lot of
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: noise in the UFC and this is a good matchup.
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: For his first fight. So I'll definitely play him at 9,500.
• 45:42
  Speaker 4: I think there's enough dogs on this card where I
• 45:45
  Speaker 4: can afford guys like him and Campbell together or him
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: and Pinto together to, So I'll get a good amount,
• 45:51
  Speaker 4: but I think he is going to be the most
• 45:53
  Speaker 4: owned guy on the card. So that's what makes me
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: want to get away from it. Let me just get
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: lower on lineups in general and go to those other guys.
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: Let me get a Campbell and a Pinto without Parnas instead.
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: So that's kind of how I'm looking at it. But
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: I do think he gets the job done, probably does
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: score well in the process.
• 46:10
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Like when I'm playing partners, I'm more likely to
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: play that.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: Like, uh, Sophia and Delphine fight the Omar side, Modesta's
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: fight cornhole Segula.
• 46:20
  Speaker 3: That's kind of like when.
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: We're talking about playing nine off when you are playing
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: a lot of chalk, that's when you go and mix
• 46:25
  Speaker 2: in those lower own fights that you still have some
• 46:28
  Speaker 2: interest in. And then when you're playing Dan hooker, you
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: can eat all the chalk in every single spot. I
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: do think like the larger the field stuff, the more
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: interesting hooker is since the leverage he will offer, uh,
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: but obviously he's not expected to win very much at
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: plus six. I think Parnas is probably going to be
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: about 50%, maybe a little more. I'm probably going to
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: be somewhere around there, but I am definitely fine dropping
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: Parnas down to Campbell, Parnas down to Pinto, even Parnas
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: down to Keita.
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: That doesn't feel as good, but.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: If I'm really chalky in other spots, leaving that 300,
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: there is outs in the upper tier where people can
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: outscore Parnas, and you can leave a little bit of
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: money there.
• 47:08
  Speaker 3: Do you agree with that?
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: Are you going to be leaving a couple hundred, you think,
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: dropping Parnas to others in the upper tier?
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: Um, yeah, I was, I was actually trying to build
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: a lineup right now.
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: Um, man, I think there's so many underdogs I can
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: click where it could lead me to more Parnas, but
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: I think I might try to avoid maybe the sherry
• 47:27
  Speaker 4: is the, the, the lower, uh, the lower priced ones
• 47:30
  Speaker 4: that almost forced me up there instead and, and kind
• 47:33
  Speaker 4: of hang out more in the mid range and try
• 47:35
  Speaker 4: to avoid them that way. But I do think you
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: could go to Kata just for a game theory, hoping
• 47:40
  Speaker 4: that he gets that first round knockout. Maybe Parnas gets
• 47:42
  Speaker 4: a second round submission. Um, and gets outscored by Keita.
• 47:46
  Speaker 4: But if I'm projecting points, I would definitely be projecting
• 47:49
  Speaker 4: Parnas for more points than Keita. I think you could
• 47:52
  Speaker 4: project Campbell for more points than Parnas just because his
• 47:56
  Speaker 4: style in a win is going to have to score well.
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: But he doesn't have five rounds to work with like
• 48:01
  Speaker 4: Parnas does.
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: And you love Campbell this week. That's one of my
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: takeaways coming out of the show. Big Marley definitely loves himself.
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: Send Curtis Campbell to get back on track.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Campbell will be in the first lineup I make for sure.
• 48:14
  Speaker 3: There you go.
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: A little spoiler from our man, Big Marley. Again, all
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: of our MMA content will be up on Friday. Projections, ownership,
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: they get loaded into Sabres, into Stone, which you're looking at.
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: This gets color-coded. You can see all of these colors
• 48:27
  Speaker 2: pop up. Ownership, projections, what they weigh in at.
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: This is all filled out.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: The Slate Station, the Stone 2.0, we showed it off
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: a little bit last week. You'll be able, like your ad,
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: all right, if you have, can sort by anything. If
• 48:41
  Speaker 2: you know you're going to.
• 48:42
  Speaker 3: Go Don Chanko harness. Then you're like, all right, I'll go.
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: Then you can show, it's going to show what your
• 48:50
  Speaker 2: ownership is, how many fantasy points, when everything is loaded there,
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: how much money you have for the rest of your
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: three spots, all that good stuff. So everything you need
• 48:59
  Speaker 2: in MMA to be successful. And then of course the
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: slate station, which has cores and breakdown for all of
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: the fights right there is over here at, uh, or
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: is over here at Chippenation, uh, Again, go to Join
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: the Nation. Let me just share this one more time.
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: Join the Nation, bottom left. You can get in five
• 49:16
  Speaker 2: days for 19 if you want to give us a
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: try all the sports above you get discord and sabersim
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: if you know you'll be with us for the long
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: haul monthly options annual even cheaper and then for the
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: single sport far right if you're just playing mma you
• 49:31
  Speaker 2: can find us there as well with Saberson, without Saberson,
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: all of that good stuff. Fingers crossed we keep all
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: 13 fights. And if we do, I think it's a
• 49:40
  Speaker 2: pretty good DFS card. Again, college football, MLB, and MMA
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: all on Saturday. A lot of money to be made.
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: NASCAR on Sunday. Next thing you know, NFL will.
• 49:51
  Speaker 3: Be on our screens.
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: Cannot wait for that. Final thoughts, Big Marley, before we
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: get on out of here.
• 49:56
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually think it's a 14-fight card. They have
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: an opponent for Nathaniel Wood, I believe. Um, so no
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: matter what, I would think we get at least 13
• 50:06
  Speaker 4: if that fight is still going. Uh, so just a quick,
• 50:11
  Speaker 4: quick hit on that. I think that the opponent, I
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: forget his name.
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: Um, uh, freaking, uh, Drew's got Andrews.
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: He's eight.
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: No, looks like a decent, decent young fighter.
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: Um, I think he is live to get a knockout
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: really with either, either hand. in the first round because
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: Wood is hittable early. It takes a little bit to
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: get going.
• 50:35
  Speaker 4: But after the first round, Wood is just one of
• 50:37
  Speaker 4: my favorite all-around fighters. So I'm definitely picking Wood to win.
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: I think he'll be 9,400. Another way that you can
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: get away from Parnas on this card, too, I think
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: Wood is three rounds of high action. He can mix
• 50:50
  Speaker 4: in takedowns. He can get a knockout submission or even
• 50:53
  Speaker 4: score well in a decision. But looking forward to this card.
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: I think we've got a lot of fights. Good luck
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: to you, Tidal. Good luck to everybody listening.
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: Let's ship it. Yeah.
• 51:01
  Speaker 3: I was looking at that and fight odds.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: I'm glad you mentioned that before we do get on
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: out of here. So yeah, he's every single salary is
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: taken besides the 9,401 all the way down to the 81.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: So I think he will be that he is only
• 51:16
  Speaker 2: minus two 80. So I do think that would keep
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: his ownership in check a little bit, multiple under or
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: multiple people priced below him.
• 51:23
  Speaker 3: We'll have better money line values.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: And I do not see any props out for the
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: fight yet though, but would open minus three 50 now
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: find themselves at minus two 80.
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: So Pavel has taken a little money.
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: Sets open but man let's go 14 fights that makes
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: me even more excited again the stone slate station everything
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: will be updated for that fight as well and we'll
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: wait for DraftKings and FanDuel to put out prices but
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: great call right there awesome stuff Big Marley always love
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: talking fights with you hope to see some shipping nation
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: logos at the top of the leaderboard come Saturday night
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: we're Big Marley on Titletown good luck be safe peace