Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 131 - 10/1/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 131 - 10/1/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 131 of the All Systems Go sports
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Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
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I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
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Happy Tuesday. Another week here in the arena,
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guys, as we turn the page from September to October.
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And you know what that means? That means we're going to switch
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a little bit from regular season to postseason.
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That's right, no football today. We got to wait until Thursday
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until college and NFL returns. But we do have some postseason
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games to get down on. I have a three pack of sweats
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that I'm excited, excited to share with you today guys,
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including two Major League Baseball bats for the playoffs,
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the wild card round, couple game ones here.
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I have a total as well as a side.
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And then we're going to look for the WNBA because there is a
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double header here tonight in the WNBA, both playoff games.
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I'm going to focus on one particular total with a great
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rhythm edge. So hopefully we can cash a total
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here in the WNBA. And if that ain't enough, we are
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going to talk a little football because I have an early College
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Football Week 6 sharp report for you guys, which I'm highlighting
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four games overall and all of which are very similar.
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Looking at some really sharp line moves away from the popular
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side toward the underdog. There's actually a fade the
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trendy dog opportunity as well, but other big slate in college.
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And we'll have our first look at where the smart money is leaning
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early this week. Now before we dive into our
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playoff sweats here for today, Disappointing Monday Night
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Football 1 and 3 -, 2.1 units. On the one hand, we did get DK
1:51
Metcalf over that was nice. He cashed that over 65 1/2 about
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midway through the second quarter.
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So love seeing that. That's all we got.
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The one that really hurt to me was the Dolphins because that's
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now the second time this year that I bet the Dolphins.
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And they look like, honestly, the Bad News Bears, the worst
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football team I've ever seen. So I should have learned my
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lesson when I played them on a Thursday night game against
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Buffalo a few weeks ago. I put my trust in the betting
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market. We had a 5050 bet split, yet the
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line moved to Miami, Money lined a short favorite, even got
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juiced up like it was going to three.
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And then what do you know? Miami absolutely doesn't even
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show up with Tyler Huntley there.
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So I did not see the Tennessee Titans rolling Miami, which
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unfortunately was bad for us as a Miami Dolphins backer.
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And I still don't get McDaniel. This guy supposed to be this
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great offensive guru. What are you doing on offense?
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The most vanilla offense with no creativity that I've ever seen.
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So that was disappointing. The Dolphins didn't come to play
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and then Devin A Chan came up short with his receiving prop,
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which was disappointing. And then the one that to me, it
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was Seattle, Like Seattle. We got a a good number with
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Seattle. You know, a lot of books were,
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you know, 4 1/2 down to four, got the hook on the 4 1/2.
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Felt good about that because a lot of books did close at 4:00.
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They were a big contrarian opportunity.
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But I got to tip my cap to the drunk guys at the bar.
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They said play Detroit. That's all I needed to know.
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Detroit rolled and that offense was just unstoppable.
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Like Seattle put up points. Geno Smith had a great game.
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I probably should have put my prop money on Geno Smith, but
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really they just could not stop Detroit whatsoever.
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It felt like every time Seattle made it close or made it A1
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possession game, Detroit has a, you know, 75 yard bomb to to
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make it double digits again. So either way, guys, 1 and 3 -,
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2.1 units. Not the way I wanted to start
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our week or obviously you did either, but sometimes that's
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going to happen when the public, the obvious play comes through
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for the public. Not good for us contrarians,
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which sadly last night Detroit made the public happy, which
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makes the books and us sad. But either way, guys, let's look
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to bounce back here today and that's sports betting again.
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Three and one, one and three. The model never changes.
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Continue to grind, but with your head, not your heart.
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data-driven bets, flat betting. See if we can get back into a
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positive light here for today. So I want to start off with some
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Major League Baseball because we already have a couple afternoon
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games going on right now. We have a couple games here
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tonight that I want to focus on. So let's start with a big match
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up here at 5. I always love these start times.
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5:32 PM Eastern Time, the Mets and the Brewers, not 530, not
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530-5532, just make sure you know that.
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But anyway, match up here. Wild card round one.
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Obviously the Mets played that double header yesterday.
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What an incredible game that was.
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I had no dog in the fight. But Mets go up early, they blow,
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you know, they blow the lead. Atlanta comes back, then the
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Mets come back. Insane sweat there.
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But the Mets are in the postseason.
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But I am going to look toward hopefully maybe their bats being
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a little bit quiet here tonight as well as Milwaukee's
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hopefully. So let's talk about the pitching
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match up. First, we have Luis Severino
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going for the Mets. Remember, he was on the Yankees
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for quite a while. He had a pretty good regular
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season for the Mets. Severino and 11 and 73.91 ERA.
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He'll be opposed by Freddy Peralta, who was 11:00 and 9:00
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with a 3.68 ERA in the regular season.
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Now, I was intrigued a little bit by Milwaukee because the
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line did move toward Milwaukee a little bit.
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They open around like -130 and they've now been bet up to
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around -140 -, 145 fifty, 6% bat, 63% money.
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I was intrigued a little bit by the Brewers, but I felt that the
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play on the total was a sharper edge here.
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So I'm going to go with the total here, guys, and I'm going
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to go under. I'm going to look for a lower
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scoring game. Mets in Milwaukee.
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Now, couple things I noticed about this total.
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Then I'm going to give you a number here that is hopefully
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going to give you more confidence to play this under.
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I'm going under 7 1/2. We'll open around 7 1/2.
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A lot of books -110 both sides, maybe a slight -115 to the
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under, and you're now looking at, despite 61% of bets going
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over the under, juice has only risen, which is weird.
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Technically, you know, it's juice down.
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You'd think falling instead of risen.
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But get what I'm saying? We went from -110 -, 115 to the
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under juice. Now it's -120 so basically the
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the price on playing the under is getting more and more
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expensive. And why is it getting more
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expensive? The public's going over well,
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tells me we got smart money here going under looking at a lower
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scoring game. So I like the fact that the
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public's going over. They just see a 7 1/2.
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It feels low, feels like an easy way to go over, especially with
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what you saw from the Mets offense and game one against the
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Braves yesterday. Yet the juice is rising or
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getting more expensive on the under.
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So that was the first thing that jumped out to me.
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Now the under is only getting 39% of bets, but literally or
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almost 50% of money they're getting, I think right now 48%
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of money, some other low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
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If you look at these pictures to Severino and Peralta, they've
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had good years. They've been even better in
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September and September. Severino had an ERA of 3.64.
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Peralta had an ERA of 3.55. If you look at also the fact
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that I believe the roof is going to be closed in Milwaukee.
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So why is that important? Because when the roof is closed,
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ball is in travel as well. It's a benefit to the pitchers,
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it's a detriment to the hitters. It's always like a closed roof.
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That's why one of my favorite systems is always the Tropicana
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Field, the Trop closed roof or Dome or closed roof Stadium
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unders. Here is the the banger system
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though that hopefully will get you excited about playing this
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under if you're interested. Since 2018 in the postseason
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when the total is 7 1/2, it can't be 7, it can't be 8, can't
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be 6 1/2 or 8 1/2, it has to be 7 1/2.
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So it closes at 7 1/2 the under. Since 2018 in the postseason
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when the total 7 1/2 is 37 and 2164% + 13 units, 22% ROI.
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So it goes to show you when you see these lower end totals,
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typically you see a four to three-game, a three to two game
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and remember the style play when you get to the postseason, you
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know you you know often times there's there's no tomorrow.
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So you're going to put in your best relievers, you're going to
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match up match up in certain situations.
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You tend to see some lower scoring games in the postseason
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just because of the style of play in the stakes.
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But also I'm going to bank on a couple other things.
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One, Milwaukee #2 bullpen in baseball this year, 3.11 ERA.
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They are a favorite here of around -140 -, 145.
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So if they're up and they got to bring in the pen, hopefully they
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shut the door here. Also well rested for Milwaukee.
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Hasn't played since Sunday. And these teams did play six
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games overall. Milwaukee was five and one head
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to head against the Mets, but the under is also four and two.
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So the style of play between these teams has been, you know,
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lower scoring in the regular season.
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But I noticed this juice continue to get more expensive
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to the under stumbled on that system when the total seven half
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of the postseason, the under 64% since 2018.
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It is a closed roof stadium or a doughnuts or tractable roof
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that's closed and hopefully you're getting some of that
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maybe non division under lack of familiarity, smart money to the
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under. So I'm going to play this
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Severino Peralta, Mets, Milwaukee under 7 1/2.
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No shop around. I was able to find under 7 1/2
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at -115 Some books are as high as -120 but I'm looking at
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hopefully, knock on wood, a lower scoring game.
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Under 7 1/2 for the Mets and the Brewers.
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Second game here. Late night, 8:38 PM Eastern
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Time. Atlanta Braves.
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San Diego Padres. Now just mention the Mets.
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Atlanta obviously lost game one, had to win game two.
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Sadly, the D backs did not make the post season, but I guess
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that's OK. We got our win total over 83
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1/2. That's all we cared about.
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But game one here in San Diego, we have the Atlanta Braves and
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we had to wait on the starter. It's going to be AJ Smith.
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Shaver. I don't even know who this kid
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is. He's 21 years old.
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I did a little bit of researching.
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It's a tough spot for a 21 year old kid who only made one
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appearance this year. It's a second year in the big
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leagues and he again has not had a lot of experience.
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He'll be opposed by Michael King, who's San Diego picked up
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in the deal for Juan Soto from the Yankees.
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He had a great year, 13 and nine 2.95 ERA.
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What are we seeing across the market here?
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Well, this total did tick up 7 up to seven half at some shops
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that took me off the under. But I like the San Diego Padres
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in this one, guys for a bunch of reasons #1 let's look at the
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percentage in the in the line move went to San Diego here.
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San Diego open at some shops as low as -140 -, 150.
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Now they're all the way up to -175 SA ton of steam that's hit
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San Diego since this line got posted.
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And that's notable because there's really been no buyback
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at all here on the on the Atlanta Braves.
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Now some shops are as high as -190 looks like DraftKings is
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closer to -190. So of course, shop around, try
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to get the cheapest price you can.
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I found a 175 in the market. Couple books are closer to -180
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but if you look at not just the line move, but the bet splits,
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76% of bets are going with the Padres, but 93% of money is on
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the Padres. So, you know, two or three out
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of four bets, but no but more than nine out of $10.
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That tells me that even though maybe it's a public play to play
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San Diego, it's not just public, it's also respected money in the
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form of that low bets, higher dollars bets split.
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Now I want to bet against the Braves because of having to play
11:07
a double header yesterday. You know that that's a really
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high stakes situation where you got to win to get in.
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You played two games, all your starters pretty much played both
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games versus San Diego, who hasn't played since Sunday.
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So it's a big rest first tired advantage for the Padres.
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If you also look at Michael King, he was great in September.
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He made four starts in September, had a 1.57 ERA.
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I'm going to hopefully bank on the offense of San Diego showing
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up. They hit 263 on the year versus
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Atlanta, hitting 243. They scored 760 runs versus
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seven O 4 for the Braves. This would also be a correlative
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betting favorite. Low total.
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You're pretty healthy favorite now at this point -175 -, 180
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with a low total of 7 1/2. So for your amount of expected
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run scored more likely to come from quote UN quote, that better
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team was favored. And then here is a system match
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for you home favorites in the postseason.
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These big, big favorites that are -170 or more, if you look at
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this spot since had here in a second, I think since 2018,
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they're 38 and 1670 percent, 6% ROI.
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So the win loss record is impressive with the, to me, the
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6% ROI because when you're laying -170 or more -200 you
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know, you can have a great one loss record, but because you're
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laying such chalk, it's it's kind of hard to, you know, have
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a big winning payout. So the fact that you have a 6%
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ROI, again, home postseason favorites -170 or more since
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2018, 70%. So that would match here with
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San Diego. So I want to bet against this AJ
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Smith Shaw for a kid. I think it's just a big spot for
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a 21 year old. Rested, ready to go are the
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Padres. I'm going to go with the fathers
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here. So shop around.
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I got San Diego at -175 and I'm also playing the Mets in
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Milwaukee under 7 1/2. Now let's continue our
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postseason sweats. Let's go to the WNBA here guys.
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Now for those of you who do not know or haven't paid attention,
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we're in the playoffs for the WNBA.
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It's the second round. There's two games tonight.
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Again, I don't get it. They're both at 10:00.
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Can you give me an 8:00 and a 10 O'clock.
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You know what? They should make me the
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commissioner of scheduling to make it to put games which best
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suit betters and best suit people who are trying to watch
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and sweat them anyway. Mostly betters, but let's look
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at aces. Liberty, the 10:00 game here
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tonight. We have this game to the Liberty
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are up one nothing. It's a best of five.
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Liberty won that first game 87 to 77.
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Now we have seen a little movement toward the aces this
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game open with the Liberty round, a four and a half point
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home favorite, and now the Liberty are around -4 I see one
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book at 3 1/2. So tickets are relatively even.
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The line has moved a little bit toward aces.
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So I think that is notable in terms of applying that movement
13:50
toward the total. So I'm going to focus on the
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total here, guys. I'm going to go over 163 1/2
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now. It opened around 163 1/2.
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It got up as high as 164 and I believe I saw one book that got
14:03
to 164 1/2 came back down to 163 1/2.
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So this is one of those stays stayed the same or or rose or
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rises, however we want to put it versus stay, this stays or
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stayed the same or dipped. So again, 163 1/2 was your
14:20
opener. It's either stayed the same or
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gone up versus never getting down to 163 or 162 1/2.
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So reading between the lines, you know, openers 163 1/2, still
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163 1/2. You might say to yourself, OK,
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no movement. What are you talking about,
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Josh? But remember, line history and
14:36
moves in between have always ticked up before it did come
14:40
back down. Now if you look at the juice,
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there are a couple books juicing up the over 163 1/2 around -112
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-, 115. So once again, reading between
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the lines, liability seems to be the with the over here.
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But then when I pop open my rhythm system match, it's
14:56
telling me to play the over. I have a rhythm AI model that is
15:00
at 171.6 and my Josh rhythm model is 173.5 S 163 1/2 to the
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over and we are predicting in the low one 70s.
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That's a pretty good, you know, 78910 point edge toward playing
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the over. Now, if you'll get a community
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model, which is a premium feature on Rhythm, you might
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hear me talk about it on the pod.
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But basically the our friends at Rhythm compile everyone who has
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an account at Rhythm and who has created their own custom model.
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And where does it particularly land for the spread the money
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line, The total for each game, 90.5% of everyone with a Rhythm
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model is basically telling them to take the over here, 90.5%
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community over system match. I mentioned the move toward the
15:44
Aces. That's important to me because
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if it open -4 1/2 Liberty and you're down to four, you know,
15:49
or 3 1/2 at some shops, it's basically moving in favor of
15:52
Aces. I like that in terms of the over
15:55
because if it's moving toward the dog in a short spread, maybe
15:58
get a competitive game back and forth, maybe you get overtime.
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If this sign kept moving toward Liberty, that wouldn't be as
16:04
good for the over because maybe the Liberty, you know, walk away
16:07
with it or run away with it. Take their foot off the gas if
16:10
they have the lead you want. Typically competitive games lend
16:13
themselves in in high scoring sports like football and and
16:17
basketball toward the over versus other way going the
16:20
under. Now little more information on
16:22
these teams. The Liberty and the Aces are
16:25
both top 2IN offensive rating. You have liberty #1 aces #2 they
16:30
both score quite a bit in the 80s.
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Both teams are top seven in terms of pace.
16:35
Aces I believe, I think are 4th and they're both top four and
16:38
three pointers made. So if you can knock down your
16:40
threes, that's a good thing. Hopefully push this number to
16:43
the over. So it is a big rhythm edge
16:46
system match. Again, these teams scored 160.
16:50
What was it? It was 87 to 77, so they scored
16:55
164 in game one. Can we get the same thing or
16:58
more today? Obviously 164 cashes it.
17:01
But with those good rhythm edges in the low one.
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Seventies, 2 good offensive minded teams, a desperate spot
17:06
for the aces. With the line moving toward the
17:08
dog, I'm going to rely on the kind of liability movement over
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as well as the rhythm edges. I'm going aces.
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Liberty 10:00 tonight over 163 1/2.
17:19
Now over to the college football slate because it's never too
17:22
early to look at some college hoops or start here.
17:25
I am thinking college hoops, college football.
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I should say I actually can't wait until college hoops
17:29
returns. I'm ready to give Ken Palm
17:31
another 20 bucks to to get my account opened here.
17:34
Let's talk a few games that we've already seen some sharp
17:37
movement on for this weekend. Now the one that really
17:40
fascinated me as of right now, most heavily bet game of the
17:42
weekend, it's Michigan at Washington.
17:45
So this is a 7:30 PM Eastern Time game primetime Saturday
17:49
night on NBC. Michigan comes in four and one
17:52
ranked 10th held off Minnesota 2724.
17:55
But you may have possibly played Minnesota on that one because
18:00
you had some line movement in their favor.
18:03
They actually down big and came back in the 4th and made it a
18:05
game. But anyway, Washington three and
18:07
two, you remember they broke our hearts because they're field
18:10
goal kicker sucked and they lost the Rutgers 21 to 18 did not
18:14
cover as a one point Rd. dog. What's audible to me is that
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Michigan comes in four and four and one ranked 10th.
18:20
Washington's three and two. Yet Washington open as a
18:23
favorite. A lot of books open Washington
18:25
around A2 point home favorite. And the public says wrong teams
18:29
favored. Michigan's a better team, better
18:31
ranking, better record. They should be favored.
18:34
So everyone's playing Michigan here. 84% of spread bets are
18:37
going Wolverines. But a lot of these -2
18:40
Washington's are up to -2 1/2. So why is the line going to
18:43
Washington? Why did they first open as a
18:45
favorite and become more of a favorite?
18:46
If everyone and their mother's playing Michigan well, it tells
18:49
me we got some smart money on the Huskies.
18:52
There would be an epic feed the trendy dog opportunity.
18:54
They're only getting 16% of bets and a 7:30 PM Eastern Time game.
18:59
Also, to me, this is a money line play.
19:01
This is a money line play because I don't want to lay a 2
19:03
1/2 a 2 and lose by and lose the bat because you know they win by
19:07
one or two. So I went money line here on the
19:10
Huskies at -135 unranked home favorites verse ranked opponents
19:14
52 and 26 straight up 67 percent, 7% ROI since 2017.
19:21
Also, you do have a one day rest advantage.
19:23
Washington I remember played Friday, Michigan played Saturday
19:26
and now has to go to the Pacific Northwest.
19:28
But big angle there is everyone's playing Michigan most
19:30
heavily back game of the week right now.
19:32
Yet this line open Washington favorite and became more of a
19:35
favorite tells me we got some smart money on Washington.
19:38
Next one that caught my eye Miami at Cal.
19:42
Now I think that was a wrong call to end the game.
19:44
Obviously Vaatech I had plus 17 1/2, but I thought that
19:48
touchdown late should have counted The refs bailed out
19:51
Miami. But anyway Miami five and O
19:53
ranked 8th one that 3834 last second win over Vaatech didn't
19:57
cover the -17 1/2 at home. Meanwhile, Cal 3:00 and 1:00.
20:01
Coming off a bye their last game they lost to Florida State 14 to
20:04
9 didn't cover as a three-point Rd. dog.
20:07
But the easy thing here to to notice is that Publix all over
20:10
Miami, but this line's falling to Cal guys.
20:12
This game opened with Miami listed around a 12 1/2 point Rd.
20:16
favorite lines down to 10 even though you're currently getting
20:20
85% of bets on Miami. So why is the line dropping,
20:24
making it easier for the public to cover with Miami when they're
20:27
already playing them to begin with?
20:28
Well, tells me we got smart money on Cal and the points
20:31
here. Only 15% of bets, but 51% of
20:35
spread dollars. So great low bets, higher
20:37
dollars bet split. This is your chase game, your
20:39
10:30 PM Eastern Time game on ESPN Saturday night.
20:42
So everyone's going to load up here the public on on Miami.
20:46
And you also have a rest versus tired advantage because as I
20:48
mentioned, Golden Bears here coming off a bye versus Miami,
20:51
maybe in a let down spot. They think they can roll Cal big
20:55
favorite here or maybe Cal kind of, you know, surprises them a
20:58
bit. So if you can only get access to
21:00
A10, maybe wait this thing out. If you can get a Cal 10 1/2.
21:03
I see at least one book at 10 1/2 right now.
21:05
FanDuel is plus 10 1/2 -, 115. I don't mind taking the hook
21:09
right now as that could be important.
21:11
They lose by 10. You want to cover with that
21:13
hook. Next one that caught my eye.
21:15
USC and Minnesota very similar here.
21:19
USC three and one ranked 11th beat Wisconsin 3821 covered the
21:23
14. Didn't look like that would
21:24
happen when they were down early.
21:26
Minnesota, meanwhile, two and three lost to Michigan as we
21:29
mentioned, but did cover the 10 1/2, but very similar.
21:32
Like if you like Cal, you like Minnesota.
21:34
Because this game opened with USC around an 8 1/2 point Rd.
21:38
favorite. I saw a couple books that open
21:40
even higher closer like a -, 9 1/2 or -10 favorite for USC.
21:45
But the public is all over USC thinking they're going to roll
21:48
here. 76% of bets are on USC. Yet any books that were again
21:54
closer to 10 are down to 8 1/2. And all the 8 1/2 openers have
21:57
stayed 8 1/2 and they've been juiced down like it may get down
22:00
to 8. I even see a couple books that
22:01
are at 8:00. So basically whether you go off
22:04
the higher opener or the 8 1/2, you look at a really sharp line
22:07
freeze here or some reverse line movement on Minnesota, 76% of
22:11
bets on USC at the line really hasn't moved.
22:14
That tells me again, if you open 8 1/2 and you're getting 76%,
22:17
should probably be up to -9 nine and a half.
22:20
Again, the opposite has happened stayed the same or even fallen
22:23
toward Minnesota who's only getting 24% of spread bets.
22:28
Also, this is another kind of primetime spot, 7:30 PM Eastern
22:32
Time, which you can go contrarian in Minnesota is also
22:35
a Bilo unranked home dog versus ranked opponent.
22:38
And keep an eye on the total here at open 52.
22:41
It's down to 5153% bets, 76% money is on the under and it
22:46
could be a little windy in Minnesota around 50 around 12
22:50
mile per hour winds which are 55% to the 55% to the under when
22:56
the wind blows 10 mph or more. But again, line freezer, maybe
23:00
some RLM but everyone's playing USC and stayed the same and
23:03
moved toward Minnesota. So I'm right now leaning hard on
23:06
Minnesota getting 8 1/2 last bet for you which you may want to
23:10
put in maybe today. WVU Take Me Home country roads.
23:14
Been waiting to say that on the road at Oklahoma State West
23:17
Virginia two and two coming off a bye Last game they beat Kansas
23:21
3228 covered as a one point home favorite.
23:24
You know Oklahoma State and Gundy I'm a man I'm 40 attack me
23:27
three and two. They've dropped two straight
23:29
just got rolled by K state 42 to 20 did not cover as a six point
23:33
Rd. dog. What have we seen across the
23:35
market here? Well, this game open Oklahoma
23:37
State around A5 point home favorite and the public says
23:41
bounce back spot for Oklahoma State. 66% of spread bets are
23:44
going Oklahoma State. In Oklahoma State open -5 the
23:48
lines down to 3 1/2. And the reason why I said you
23:50
might want to play it now instead of waiting is that a lot
23:53
of these 3 1/2's look like they're getting down to three.
23:55
I see a couple books at three and the juice is all on the WVU
23:59
side. Plus 3 1/2 -, 115 like the next
24:01
move, maybe 3. Also, you look at the spread
24:05
percentages here, WVU is only getting 34% of bets, but 75% of
24:10
early money. That is a huge low bets higher
24:13
dollars bet split one of our grinder systems.
24:15
Short Rd. dogs 4 or less, 54% ATS since since 2012.
24:22
Respers tired advantage. They're coming off a bye.
24:25
Cowboys played on Saturday and also a conference dog play.
24:28
Built in familiarity and rivalry aspect, leveling of playing
24:31
field, benefiting the team getting points.
24:33
So Publix, Oklahoma State, this line's moving toward WVU.
24:37
So I'm looking at WVU and actually did play them plus 3
24:40
1/2. Thinking if we wait too long we
24:42
might miss the hook and it might get down to three.
24:44
So WVU, Minnesota, Cal and Washington some early sharp
24:49
moves in college football week six.
24:52
That about does it for episode 131 of the All Systems Go Sports
24:57
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
24:59
It's the part of the pod where we wrap things up and I start by
25:01
asking a favor of you. Can you do me a solid and give
25:04
this podcast a five star review? Whether you are new to the pod
25:08
or maybe you just enjoy the breakdowns, if you want to
25:12
recommend it to a friend, give it a five star review.
25:14
Maybe say a nice word in the in the comments section.
25:17
It would mean a lot to me. Help us to grow the pod as well
25:20
as if there's a follow button click that as soon as it drops
25:23
each day, you'll get alerted. But seriously, I'd very much
25:25
appreciate a five star review because we're trying to rise up
25:29
the ranks and become the number one data-driven pod in all the
25:32
land and you can help me do that.
25:34
Secondly, if you enjoy these breakdowns, I know you didn't
25:37
like the results last night, but I would argue that the the
25:42
reading of the market was correct, even though the lines
25:44
didn't come through for us. But if this style of betting
25:46
appeals to you in terms of following the market, reading
25:50
and interpreting the market, finding out where we can go
25:52
contrarian, where's the public, where the sharps?
25:55
If any of this appeals to you and you are now intrigued by
25:58
data-driven betting or you want to learn more about data-driven
26:00
betting, guess what, There's a great book you can go by.
26:03
Just go to Amazon.com, type in the everything guide to sports
26:07
betting. Pretty cool author, good looking
26:10
guy, his name is Josh Applebaum. That's me, that's my baby.
26:14
I wrote it, I think now five or six years ago.
26:16
Boy does time fly. But anyway, it's got everything
26:18
I've learned in the industry. How lines are set, how and why
26:21
they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
26:23
action, how to place it in person or online, how to shop
26:26
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, all
26:28
included in the Everything guide to sports betting.
26:31
So pick one up for you or a friend, colleague, buddy, family
26:34
member makes a great birthday gift or stocking stuffer as the
26:38
holidays aren't that far off. But anyway, if you want to bring
26:41
it to the book, I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer or
26:44
ginger ale next. Have you taken advantage of
26:47
Rhythm or Juice Reel? My two favorite sports betting
26:50
apps because they're all about that data baby in terms of
26:53
rhythm with their AI backed models and predictions for game
26:56
bets and player props. Helped us cash DK, Metcalf last
26:59
night as well as Juice Reel. Great for syncing up your sports
27:02
books, learning about yourself is a better with a running
27:04
report card. Find your strengths and
27:06
weaknesses, but also if you want to just tell the best bet picks
27:09
that come out from Robo Jackson each day at noon.
27:12
Also the arbitrage opportunities, the sharp mush
27:14
plays, the dollar breakdowns for all the games based on people
27:18
who have a juice reel account of sync their books all included
27:21
when you become a juice reel user.
27:24
So I want you to download both rhythm and juice reel guys and
27:27
you got to do in a particular way.
27:28
Go to the bio description of each podcast.
27:31
Scroll down. Like today.
27:32
We'll say something like Josh dishes out a three pack of MLB
27:36
and WNBA postseason plays and an early sharp report for College
27:39
Football Week six. OK, Scroll down.
27:41
You're going to see a couple links to Juice, Real and Rhythm.
27:44
Click those. Get signed up.
27:45
I got to click those links so that they know I refer to you.
27:47
That's important. But then of course, as always,
27:51
whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
27:54
Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
27:56
Sun, down in the in Connecticut at the Encore in Boston or Plain
28:00
Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield in my neck of the
28:02
woods, or of course out in the desert where the true grinders
28:05
get down, where Billy Walters sends his number runners were
28:07
the lowest true as possible. So at the South Point, by the
28:10
way, rest in peace, Pete Rose, who ironically, I just saw his
28:14
documentary, I think it was on Netflix recently and passed away
28:18
yesterday with without getting into the hall, but Pete was a
28:21
great better. And there's actually a great
28:23
story Brent Musburger told at Vison yesterday where when they
28:26
were doing NFL today, back in the day, the Greek, Jimmy the
28:31
Greek, he was off for a couple weeks.
28:32
He was sick or something. And Brent Musburger called Pete
28:36
Rose and said you want to fill in and he filled in and he
28:38
actually had a lot of winners. And you would always remind
28:40
Brent Musburger, remember the time when I filled in for the
28:43
Greek and I gave you all those winners.
28:45
I will Pete Rose RIP obviously a I don't know a controversial
28:50
figure, but he loved betting and so did we so and so do we.
28:53
So we share that with him. Or of course, out at the stadium
28:57
swim when you're jumping in the pool at circa when you catch a
28:59
big ticket, wherever it may be Miami freaking a Chan Seattle,
29:06
get rid of those. You can show me a a Metcalf
29:09
ticket. That was a nice winter there in
29:10
the second quarter. But guess what guys?
29:13
First one's on me, next one's on you.
29:14
We're going to post about the book sweat some post season
29:16
games tonight. Is that about does it everybody
29:19
as always, remember, stay sharp, stay contrarian, bet against the
29:22
public, place yourself on the side of the house.
29:24
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
29:26
Will smart money win every time? No, I would argue both Miami and
29:31
Seattle were sharp just didn't come through.
29:32
That's betting sometimes. So I betting can humble you.
29:35
I can also give you perspective when you're struggling or
29:38
winning because this ain't easy. Gives you more confidence when
29:41
you're winning. It gives you perspective when
29:43
you're losing or have a bad night.
29:44
But here's the thing, our model never changes.
29:46
It's all about playing the long term, the forest amongst the
29:49
trees, the marathon, not a Sprint.
29:51
If we can stick to the data, make bets based on our head and
29:53
not our heart, against the public, with the house, with the
29:56
pros, flat bet, avoid parlays and get that closing line value.
29:59
If we can do that long term, we're going to be OK.
30:02
We're going to be successful betters.
30:03
So enjoy the sweats everybody. We got 3 plays, let's try to go
30:06
2 and one, have a winning night, and then we'll be back at it
30:09
tomorrow for a big Wednesday edition.
30:11
Episode 132 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
30:15
powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, have a
30:18
great night.