Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 368 - 10/7/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 368 - 10/7/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello, and welcome to episode 368 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:35
Happy Tuesday. Another day here in the arena,
0:38
guys. And as we like to do, get our
0:40
fall football schedule down, you know what that means?
0:43
It is a Tuesday. So we're going to look at an
0:45
early sharp report for three college football games here
0:48
today, guys. That'll be coming up on
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Saturday. And one of which reminds me a
0:52
little bit of the Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings game
0:55
where you had to have gotten that 4 1/2.
0:57
They lost by 4. Again, if you got the 3 1/2, you
1:01
would have lost that bet. But here's a bet hopefully you
1:03
can put in right now at a book still offering a hook.
1:06
And if they lose by three, hopefully you'll catch this one.
1:08
And then another couple games here, including a very unpopular
1:11
favorite, really sharp contrarian fade, the trendy dog
1:15
play and then a couple ranked teams looking at taking the
1:17
points of this dog as well. So an early college football
1:20
sharp report for I believe it's college football week 7 now,
1:23
man, the season's absolutely flying by.
1:26
But not just college football. We're also going to of course,
1:29
look at some Major League Baseball.
1:31
I know today is the return of hockey.
1:33
The NHL is back and had a lot of people reach out to me and say,
1:36
hey, are you going to bet hockey?
1:37
And I'm going to say, yeah, I am.
1:38
I'm going to dabble as I always like to do.
1:40
I've had some great hockey years.
1:42
I've had some not so great hockey years.
1:44
To me, hockey is a a pick your spot type of sport.
1:47
I got nothing for you tonight guys.
1:48
But we will dabble in some plays, probably let the first
1:51
week get through here, get some date on these teams, refresh a
1:54
lot of our system matches. But if you're looking for hockey
1:56
plays, you will get them on the pod this fall.
2:00
But want to focus on Major League Baseball because my Red
2:03
Sox are out of it. But there are two games here
2:05
going on today, Toronto and New York, Seattle and Detroit.
2:08
And in one of the games, I found a really sharp angle here to
2:11
play the total. So it's going to be one play in
2:13
Major League Baseball. Hopefully we can maybe get a
2:16
winner here, go one and O. And then we're also going to
2:18
talk college football here Week 7 on the pod.
2:21
Hopefully get some good numbers that make us happy by the time
2:24
Saturday rolls around. Now bearing the lead man, what a
2:28
sweat last night with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
2:30
Guys, I tell you what, the roller coaster of emotions in
2:32
that game. I went from obviously holding
2:35
the plus 3 1/2 when I liked about the 3 1/2.
2:37
You mentioned it yesterday, the contrarian dog opportunity, the
2:41
prime time dog opportunity, but really with Rhythm telling us it
2:45
should have been a 2.9 game and we were getting 3 1/2.
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What I really liked was the late buyback on the 3 1/2 because if
2:51
you notice with Jacksonville, they opened getting three.
2:54
It got up to 3 1/2, but all the juice was coming back toward the
2:57
Jags plus three and half -115 -, 120 couple books even got down
3:01
to three. So that was a great sign that
3:04
there was some sharp buy back there coming in back toward
3:07
Jacksonville and the points. Now they get down 14.
3:09
Nothing. And it looks like, oh, we're in
3:11
trouble here. But the Jags have an absolutely
3:14
unbelievable comeback and in one of the most incredible
3:17
individual plays I've ever seen. It was funny.
3:20
I tweeted this out if you haven't seen it yet, Trevor
3:22
Lawrence, they're down 30 to 28 fourth quarter.
3:25
There's 20 seconds left. We we got a score here or sorry,
3:30
they were down at the time. I think it was what was it,
3:33
202824? So we were holding the plus 3
3:36
1/2. We're losing that ticket.
3:37
There's no shot at a field goal because you're going to go for
3:40
the win here. We needed a touchdown.
3:42
Trevor Lawrence, I like, I don't know, the three yard line he
3:45
gets or I think it was the one yard line actually, because it
3:47
was the IT was called the greatest 1 yard run in the
3:49
history of football. But he gets tripped up, steps on
3:52
or is one of his lineman steps on his foot falls to the ground.
3:55
I'm like, oh, here we go. They have no timeouts left.
3:58
They wouldn't have even had time to, you know, you know, spike
4:01
the ball or anything and the game might have just ended right
4:03
there. Instead, Trevor Lawrence gets
4:05
up, Juke's defenders dives into the end zone, Trevor Lawrence
4:10
with an incredible, incredible individual effort.
4:13
And I would say that's kind of a microcosm of life.
4:15
Even when you get knocked down, get back up, never give up.
4:18
But I'm I'm actually watching the replay as we speak.
4:20
He stumbles twice, turns around. There's actually any, you know,
4:24
Juke's couple defenders here dives in the end zone.
4:27
So again, we've had some bad beats here.
4:29
That's one of the greatest backdoor covers and just
4:32
outright wins that I can remember in quite a long time
4:35
from the standpoint of an individual effort that single
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handedly covers and wins our bet.
4:40
So shout out to Trevor Lawrence. There's actually a terrible
4:43
missed call pass interference when Trevor Lawrence threw the
4:46
pick. The guy got got, you know,
4:48
interfered with, didn't call that.
4:50
So I'm like here we go. I'm going to lose because of
4:52
that non call by the refs. But luckily it didn't hand out
4:56
turn out that way. The Jaguars come up massive
4:59
winning outright plus 3 1/2. So we are able to get a one O 1
5:03
and O + 0.91 unit night, which was on the on the heels of that
5:08
four and O Sunday. So nice little run here 5 and O
5:11
our last five in the NFL. You'll love to see it.
5:14
But man, I tell you what guys being down 14, nothing coming
5:17
back then think you're going to lose, then come back and see
5:20
that Trevor Lawrence run that that's got to be on the
5:22
highlight. You know, again, we've had a a
5:25
Hall of Fame, you know, bad beats lately.
5:28
That's a Hall of Fame winner there with that Trevor Lawrence.
5:31
And you know what's funny? Couple people DM me.
5:33
I tweeted this out and they're like, seriously, all he did was
5:36
fall and get back up. Let's not get carried away.
5:39
It's like, OK, how about you fall and get back up with the
5:41
game on the line with no time left in an NFL football game
5:46
like you, you try doing that for me, Mr. Mr. Keyboard warrior
5:50
sitting in your parents basement somewhere.
5:52
So anyway, let's give let's give Trevor Lawrence some props.
5:55
But anyway, guys, great winner there with the Jags.
5:57
Let's see if we can reinvest it to today and hopefully get a
6:00
winner here for Major League Baseball.
6:02
So Speaking of Major League Baseball, here is my play and
6:06
then we'll finish up with the three college football games,
6:08
but I'm going to focus on the Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays game.
6:11
Now, if you haven't been paying attention, this is game three of
6:14
the ALDS. Toronto's up to nothing.
6:17
Toronto has dominated both games.
6:18
They won 12:50. They won thirteen to seven.
6:21
The 13 to 7 game. I think it was a bit of an
6:23
outlier there because I want to say at one point they're up
6:26
like, I don't know, 12 nothing or something.
6:28
And the Yankees put on a lot of runs late, but it's been all
6:31
Toronto. It's been all overs.
6:33
So what are we seeing for this one here for tonight?
6:35
Well, match up on the mound. Shane Bieber is going for the
6:39
Toronto Blue Jays. Remember, Bieber was hurt
6:42
acquired in a trade. He's making his first start of
6:44
the postseason and the regular season.
6:46
He went four and two with a 3.57 ERA.
6:49
He'll be opposed by the lefty Carlos Rodon.
6:51
Rodon had a good regular season 18 and nine with a 3.09 ERA and
6:57
in the postseason I remember because his one start was
6:59
against the Red Sox, he went 6IN and gave up three runs.
7:02
Technically a quality start ERA of 4.50, but that's the matchup
7:07
on the mount. Now in terms of the side, if you
7:09
tell me you like the Yankees, it looks like that's the way the
7:13
line is moving. I mean, you look at the Yankees,
7:15
they open like -150 -, 145, they're all the way now up to
7:19
-160 -, 165 even -170 So it's pretty clear that this line is
7:24
moving toward New York. Now.
7:26
We do have a couple people that I respect that are just saying,
7:28
hey, I'll take the plus money with Toronto Divisional Dog.
7:32
You get them around plus 140. I get that.
7:35
If you take a little bit of a deeper and closer look at the
7:37
splits, Yankees 56% of bets, 65% of dollars at DraftKings and at
7:44
circa 47% of bets, 83% of dollars.
7:47
So again, I get the vet quote UN quote value play of Toronto
7:51
again, plus money, divisional dog.
7:53
They look great this series, but it looks like the the market is
7:57
moving toward New York in this one with a good bet split.
7:59
So I'm not going to touch the side, but I am going to play
8:03
this total and it may not be the direction that you think I'm
8:06
going to go over in this one. Yeah, the over.
8:08
Now what's very important here is you get a 7 1/2 because this
8:11
total opened right at 7 1/2. And if you look at some of the
8:14
juice, it was actually 7 1/2, like under -115.
8:18
Now almost all the seven apps are gone and almost every book
8:22
is at 8. So it's very clear here you've
8:24
had some sharp money hit the over 7 1/2 up to 8.
8:27
Now, here's the importance of getting the best price because
8:30
you can still get us over 7 1/2 if you want to play this one
8:33
with me. But now I got over 7 1/2 at -120
8:37
a little bit earlier today at ESPN Bet ESPN bet.
8:40
Still, of all the books that are available to me in
8:42
Massachusetts, they're the only one still at 7 1/2.
8:45
Now it's over 7 1/2 -, 130. So it is a little bit pricey.
8:49
But here's the thing. If you get that 7 1/2, it's a 5
8:52
to 3 game. It's a 7 to one game.
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It is a, you know, can't have a four to four.
8:58
That would be a tie here. But you land on eight runs, 8
9:00
nothing game. You obviously push that play,
9:04
you get a seven half and go over, you win that play.
9:07
So the important thing for me is getting that 7 1/2 again.
9:10
I was able to get it earlier today at ESPN bet.
9:12
But if you look a little bit closer at the splits, they look
9:15
really good. Pro and Joe with that line move
9:17
toward the over at DraftKings, 85% of bets, 87% of dollars are
9:22
on the over. And at circa out in Vegas again,
9:25
caters to sharper betters, doesn't turn them away or limit
9:27
them. 92% of bets, 98% of dollars going over.
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So we got heavy bets in dollars over.
9:35
It's not just public because you're getting more money than
9:37
bets. You can still get an over 7 F
9:39
Yes, it's -130 but with the entire market at 8 again, the
9:44
seven F does provide a bit of an edge here.
9:46
Here's the thing, if you don't have access to A7 FI would wait
9:50
see if between now and first pitch, maybe a book dips back
9:53
down to 7 1/2. But here are some other angles
9:56
if you just want to play the over 8.
9:58
One would be a weather based play tonight.
10:00
Because if you look at the the forecast here in New York, it's
10:03
going to be about 70°, little bit cloudy, but the wind is
10:06
blowing out to left center at 10 to 15 mph.
10:11
So that is a quote UN quote windy over again, when the
10:14
wind's blowing out, always a benefit to the offense because
10:17
if you think about it, maybe you're hitting a warning track
10:20
fly ball that will be an out. The wind pushes it into a first
10:23
second row home run gives you some runs there.
10:24
So it is a wind blowing out system match.
10:27
My other angle here are a couple others to mention the bullpen,
10:30
both these teams not great bullpens in the regular season,
10:33
the Yankees had a 4.37 bullpen ER a Toronto is a little bit
10:37
better, 3.98 ER a. But again, those are both in the
10:40
bottom half of baseball. So they're bullpens have
10:43
struggled. You look in the postseason,
10:45
these are tied. These two teams, Yankees and
10:47
Jays tied for the worst postseason ER a both have a
10:51
bullpen ER a of nine. So they've really gotten hit
10:55
around here in the later innings.
10:57
So hopefully, you know, we get a lot of runs early.
10:58
You won't have to sweat the bullpen blowing it, but it may
11:00
come to that and hopefully that's a good sign here with a
11:03
couple bad bullpens coughing up some runs late.
11:06
The other angle for me, aside from the, you know, the line,
11:09
the total going up, obviously the bet splits look good to the
11:14
over low bets, higher dollars, the wind blowing out bad
11:16
bullpens. Also the offensive familiarity
11:20
because these are divisional opponents, Yankees, Jays,
11:23
obviously American League East play each other quite a bit in
11:25
the regular season. So that means the the offensive
11:28
players, the batters, they've seen these opposing pitchers
11:31
before. So anytime you get more tape or
11:34
data on a pitcher as a hitter, that's a good thing.
11:37
Usually if you've never seen a pitcher before, that's a big
11:39
advantage to the pitcher. So I'll put a little stock into
11:41
the advantage of of these hitters facing these pitchers
11:45
before. Even with Bieber when he was
11:47
with Cleveland for all those years, still a fellow American
11:50
League team that Yankees face the you know, Bieber in the in
11:54
the the tribe at that point, the guardians last little angle for
11:57
me, guys, I don't mention a ton of rhythm models for baseball,
12:02
but I did notice I popped open rhythm and I had two different
12:06
recommended green star plays on the over in this game and both
12:10
were predicting around nine runs.
12:11
I think I'd like an 8.9 and a 9.3.
12:15
So if rhythm was predicting around nine runs, hopefully you
12:18
can shop around. Still get the over 7 1/2.
12:20
We got a total that has risen 7 1/2 up to 8.
12:23
Tells me a lot of sharps hit that over 7 1/2.
12:25
Low bets higher dollar split wind blowing out bad bullpens.
12:29
Offense again has seen both sides have seen the opposing
12:32
pitcher before. This smells to me like hopefully
12:35
another overplay. So I did play the Yankees and
12:38
the Blue Jays over 7 1/2 -, 120 at ESPN.
12:42
Bet you can still get over 7 1/2.
12:45
It's now -130 but again, shop around because pretty much every
12:48
other book is at 8 now. If you play over 8, let's just
12:51
hope we get nine runs or more. My play here over 7 half -120
12:55
and little shameless promotion. Shameless plug.
12:58
You can get every official best bet pick that I make as soon as
13:01
I make it because the ASG Podcast best bets are always
13:05
located on the Juice Reel app. You can get them for $4.99 a
13:10
week. I have my sports book synced up
13:11
to Juice Reel. So right when I put in that over
13:14
7 half, you would have gotten that alert and you could have
13:16
jumped on that over 7 half -120 as well.
13:18
So support your podcast host, get those plays.
13:21
But for everybody who's going to play it, whether it's over 7
13:23
half or 8, let's make it safe for everybody.
13:26
Let's get over 9 or get let's get nine runs or more, I should
13:28
say, but I'm playing that over 7 1/2 Yankees and the Jays.
13:33
Now over to some college football because there looks to
13:36
be a really good slate up coming here on Saturday.
13:39
And I got a couple games that really jumped out to me or three
13:42
in particular. And I I bet them all.
13:43
So I've already put them into the Juice Real app.
13:46
So first one, I want to talk about Michigan and USC right
13:50
now. This is the most heavily bet
13:51
game of the weekend. It is a 7:30 PM primetime
13:54
matchup out in California and Southern Cal setting the stage
13:59
for this one. Michigan comes in four and one
14:01
they're ranked 15th in the country.
14:03
They just took down Wisconsin 24 to 10.
14:06
However, they were favored by 17 at home in that one, so they
14:08
didn't cover the number. They did win by 14, but had to
14:11
win by 18 or more obviously. On the other hand, USC four and
14:15
one unranked, just came up short against Illinois 34 to 32.
14:19
They actually lost outright that game as a 6 1/2 point Rd.
14:22
favorite. So what do you see across the
14:24
market here? Will this game open UFC around a
14:27
1 1/2 point home favorite? I even saw some books that open
14:30
like at a pic or maybe even Michigan -1.
14:33
Most of the openers though are pretty much USC -1 1/2.
14:37
And right off the bat to me that opening line really speaks
14:40
volumes because Michigan is ranked 15th, USC is unranked.
14:44
So even if you factor in a home field advantage, why is USC
14:48
opening as a favorite again? Shouldn't Michigan, the better
14:51
team, be favored even with home field?
14:53
Well, the public is saying the wrong team is favored because
14:56
right now we're getting 55% of spread bets taking the points of
14:59
Michigan. However, even though the public
15:01
is leaning Michigan, this line didn't flip to Michigan.
15:04
Dog to fave. It's not like Michigan or the
15:06
game's down to a pick, or we've hopped the fence and gone to
15:09
Michigan -1 -, 2 No, it's gone the other way.
15:12
Publix on the Wolverines, but this line went further toward
15:15
USC. USC is now up -1 1/2 up to -2
15:19
1/2. And you even see a few books
15:21
that are juiced up -2 1/2 - 115, like maybe it even goes to
15:25
three. So that's really a dead giveaway
15:27
to me. One fishy.
15:29
Why was USC opening as a favorite two public Michigan,
15:32
but the lines going further toward USC.
15:34
It looks like to me that we have a fade the trendy dog
15:37
opportunity, trendy dog Michigan line going to USC.
15:41
USC also only getting 45% of spread bets and a heavily bet
15:45
nationally televised 730 primetime game.
15:47
So you have that contrarian angle.
15:50
Good split as well though at DraftKings, 45% bets, 67% of
15:55
dollars. So good split there in favor of
15:58
USC at DraftKings. Another angle here for USC.
16:01
They enjoy a rest advantage. They were off last week.
16:04
They're coming off a bye week where Michigan played Wisconsin.
16:07
So if we extra time to game plan and then any players with
16:10
injuries, obviously a benefit. I'm going to go money line here.
16:13
What I did is I took USC -135. Now you might be able to find a
16:17
-130 at ESPN bet, but even if you can only get 135, that's OK
16:22
because a lot of other books are at -140 or more.
16:26
What I like about the money line, again, money line, short
16:28
favorites, protect ourselves. USC again, they open 1 1/2 even
16:31
close to a pick them at some shops.
16:33
So pretty much odds makers are saying this could be a very
16:36
close game, might be a one or two point margin of victory.
16:39
So I don't want to lay a 2 1/2, have the Trojans win by one or
16:42
two. I lose my 2 1/2.
16:43
So I went money line. I like the splits on the money
16:46
line at DraftKings. Only 23% bets, but nearly 50% of
16:50
the dollars are on the USC money line.
16:52
And then here's another angle here I buried the lead, but this
16:55
is what we love, the unranked home favors ranked opponent.
16:58
This reminds me a little bit of Cincinnati against Iowa State
17:01
last week. Not quite dog to fave, but line
17:04
moving toward the unranked home favorite, even though the public
17:07
was on the ranked popular Rd. team.
17:10
And if you look at unranked home favors ranked opponents, they're
17:12
two and one straight up this year, 67%.
17:16
They're 55 and 29 straight up 65% with a 5% ROI since 2017.
17:22
So I'm playing a USC here again. This reminds me a lot of the
17:25
Cincinnati play, but most heavily back game so far of the
17:28
weekend. Public on Michigan line going to
17:31
unranked home favors ranked opponent Trojans.
17:34
I played Trojans money line -135 next one for you. 3:30 PM
17:39
Eastern Time game. Indiana and Oregon.
17:42
Here's another very heavily back game right now.
17:44
This is your second most heavily back game on the board.
17:47
Indiana comes in five and O ranked 7th in the country.
17:50
They just held off Iowa 20 to 15 didn't cover though as a 9 1/2
17:54
point Rd. favorite. Meanwhile, Oregon having another
17:57
great Year 5 and O ranked third in the country.
18:00
They just upset Penn State 30 to 24, one out rate as a four point
18:04
Rd. dog. So we've seen across the market
18:06
here, well some books open, believe it or not, Oregon as
18:09
high as a 9 1/2 point home favorite.
18:11
Now, a lot of those 9 1/2's immediately got bet down very,
18:15
very quickly. And we've now seen this line get
18:18
all the way down to -7 1/2 for Oregon.
18:21
So we've gone from Indiana getting 9 1/2 to now Indiana
18:25
only getting 7 1/2. And if you look a little bit
18:27
closer, what I really like about this line move toward toward
18:31
Indiana is that they're not a trendy dog.
18:34
Publix actually all over Oregon public loves laying the points
18:37
of Oregon, especially if the spread is less than double
18:40
digits, especially at home. So right now you're getting 63%
18:43
of spread bets laying it with Oregon.
18:46
But the line isn't up to -10 - 11.
18:47
No, it's down to 7 1/2. And if you dig a little deeper
18:51
and look at the juice on the organs on the Indiana side, I
18:54
should say the Hoosiers are getting juiced up.
18:57
So the Hoosiers are plus 7 1/2 - 115 - 120.
19:01
That tells us that between now and Saturday, don't be surprised
19:04
if this line gets down to 7. Indiana has really good bet
19:07
against the public value. They're getting less than 40% of
19:10
tickets and the most heavily bet mid afternoon game 330 game
19:14
coming up on Saturday. You look at the splits at DK 37%
19:18
bets 52% dollars on Indiana at circa 36% bets 63% dollars on
19:25
Indiana and then also a dog who can score system match Indiana's
19:30
averaging nearly 42 points per game.
19:32
That's top ten in all of college football.
19:35
So if you're going to play Oregon and you know the total is
19:38
relatively low for an Oregon game, it's like 55 1/2.
19:40
It did tick up I believe from 54.
19:42
But if you're going to play Oregon, you got to, you know,
19:44
put up points yourself to keep pace or hopefully backdoor
19:47
cover. So the fact that Indiana is able
19:49
to again, put up more than 40 points a game, always a good
19:52
sign if you're on that dog to keep pace or backdoor cover
19:56
doesn't hurt as well that in this spot, again, you're you're
20:01
getting a very unpopular team with a line move in their favor.
20:05
So I'm going with Indiana. I got the plus 7 1/2.
20:09
It's pretty widely available. Try to get the the least amount
20:12
of juice as you can. But mostly it's Indiana plus
20:15
seven half -115 let's see if they can keep it close.
20:19
Lose by 7 or less, but give me Hoosiers plus 7 1/2.
20:23
Last bet for me for early sharp report for college football,
20:27
Alabama and Missouri. Now Alabama RIP my heart out and
20:31
dance to the beat by scoring A meaningless touchdown against
20:34
Vandy to kill our Vandy ticket. So let's see if we can get some
20:36
revenge here. Alabama, Missouri at 12 noon
20:40
Eastern Time here coming up on Saturday setting the stage, we
20:43
got Bama 4 and 1 ranked 8th again beat Vandy 30 to 14
20:47
covered the 12 1/2. Don't remind me.
20:49
Meanwhile, Mizzou don't sleep on Mizzou 5 and O ranked 14th in
20:53
the country just dominated UMass 42 to 6, but they didn't cover
20:57
though they're actually favored by 44 1/2 there at home.
21:00
Now what are we seeing across the market?
21:02
Will this game open? Bama listed as high as a 6 1/2
21:05
point Rd. favorite. A lot of 6 and halfs were
21:08
immediately brought down very, very quickly and we've now
21:11
gotten this game all the way down to three.
21:14
So huge line move here toward Missouri especially.
21:17
The good thing about Missouri is that the public is all over Bama
21:21
right now. 77% of spread bets are laying the points with the
21:25
Crimson Tide. However, Crimson Tide aren't up
21:27
to 7 or 8, they're all the way down to 3.
21:30
So it tells us, classic reverse line movement.
21:32
If the public is all over Bama, why are the odds makers dropping
21:35
the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're
21:37
already playing Bama to begin with?
21:39
No, the odds makers aren't being nice, being generous, giving out
21:42
charity points here. They're doing it because they're
21:45
taking in smart money on Mizzou. Now Mizzou is one of the top bet
21:48
against the public plays of the week.
21:50
This is a noon game, but it's the most heavily bet noon game
21:52
and the Tigers are only getting 23% of spread bets.
21:56
So good. Just straight up contrarian play
21:58
to take Mizzou in the points. Missouri also has a rest
22:01
advantage. They're off.
22:01
Last week, Bama played Vanderbilt home conference dogs.
22:05
Missouri, Missouri. Missouri would match here.
22:08
That's when you combine Missouri and Mizzou.
22:10
Missouri, they're 31 and 23 ATS, 5357% I should say this season,
22:17
and they are 143 and 117 ATS, 55% with a 5% ROI since 2024.
22:23
Lastly, if you focus just on SEC conference dog, so two teams in
22:27
the SEC play each other, take the dog that's 49 and 31 against
22:31
the spread, 61% with a 17% ROI since 2024.
22:36
So we have public Bama, but line is falling toward Missouri.
22:40
Now here's the game that I teased at the beginning where
22:42
you got to get the best of the number because you can still get
22:44
plus 3 1/2 at FanDuel at -118 So that's what I did.
22:49
Jumped on Mizzou plus 3 1/2 -, 118 at FanDuel.
22:52
But pretty much every other book is at 3, and I even saw one book
22:55
at 2 1/2. So if Mizzou ends up losing by
22:57
three, we got to get that hook because again, Cleveland,
23:01
Minnesota got the 4 1/2 they lost by 4.
23:04
You would have lost your 3 1/2 there.
23:06
And this reminds me a little bit of Georgia and Tennessee.
23:09
If you're go back a few weeks ago, remember that line.
23:12
It was a similar situation. Public was all over Georgia on
23:14
the road. They were a favorite, but the
23:16
line kept falling toward Tennessee.
23:18
We got the 3 1/2. They ended up losing by three.
23:20
We won with the hook. So again, when you when you
23:22
stare at games and lines all day, a lot of games, you know,
23:26
this game reminds me of a different game.
23:27
That's something that jumped out to me here.
23:29
But again, a lot of books at 3. But if you have access to
23:32
FanDuel, jump on that plus 3 1/2 -, 118.
23:35
That's what I did with Mizzou. And oh, by the way, our friends
23:38
at Rhythm get a load of this. Rhythm has Mizzou plus 0.6,
23:43
basically a half point. So if Mizzou in the eyes of
23:47
Rhythm is basically a half point dog, almost a pick em game, and
23:50
we can still get a 3 1/2, that's pretty good value there to back
23:53
the Tigers. So I played Mizzou plus 3 1/2 -,
23:57
118 at FanDuel. I got USC on the money line -135
24:01
and I got the Hoosiers do it for Jimmy Chitwood plus 7 1/2 there
24:05
against Oregon. So all those plays and the
24:08
Yankees over 7 1/2 all in the juicer lap tail fade.
24:12
Do what you like, but these are plays that I have already put in
24:15
pocket for today and upcoming for Saturday.
24:18
So that about does it for episode 368 of the All Systems
24:21
Go Sports Betting podcast Powered by Rhythm.
24:24
This is the part of the pod, as always, where we wrap things up.
24:27
I always start first by saying thank you.
24:30
Thank you for taking the time out of your day, out of your
24:32
busy lives. And we got a lot going on.
24:34
But you guys, TuneIn, you grind the the breakdowns, the insights
24:37
with me. You grind the sweats with me.
24:38
We catch the Jags together. So I appreciate you.
24:42
If you'd like to help me grow this pod, please could you do
24:44
one very basic, easy, simple thing?
24:47
Could you give this podcast a five star review on Spotify or
24:50
iTunes? Recommend the pod to a friend.
24:53
Word of mouth is always great. Click the follow button, leave a
24:55
nice comment under the review tab.
24:57
That would all be very, very cool of you to do and I would
25:00
appreciate it. Next, if you enjoy the style of
25:02
betting breakdown, focusing on the data, the numbers, the
25:06
lines, the splits, the system matches, not focusing on what
25:09
our bias and our opinions are telling us.
25:11
Because if you bet based on your bias, your gut instinct in your
25:13
opinion, believe me, you're going to be a losing better and
25:16
it's going to get worse and worse.
25:17
You got to stick to the data here.
25:18
So if you've seen through the way we approach these games that
25:22
it's been a benefit to you to focus on the data.
25:24
You're beating closing lines, you're making sharp bets,
25:26
hopefully you're winning at a higher rate.
25:28
It gives you a blueprint to attack pretty much any sport by
25:31
focusing on the market. If this style of betting has
25:34
appealed to you, you want to learn more about data-driven
25:36
betting, you want to let me know you appreciate the pod or maybe
25:39
have a friend or buddy or colleague or family member who
25:42
wants to get into sports betting, doesn't know anything
25:45
about betting. Or maybe they bet a lot and they
25:46
lose a lot and they need some some tips and some insights and
25:49
strategies. I'd love for you guys to go to
25:51
Amazon.com and type in the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook.
25:56
That's my new book. It's almost two months old now
25:58
at this point, which is crazy. But if you like to pick up a
26:01
copy, it's got everything we talked about from a NFL betting
26:04
perspective. And also I wrote another book
26:07
called the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
26:08
So if you want to pick up the Everything guide or the NFL
26:10
Sharp Betting playbook, you know what you should do?
26:12
You should grab 1. You should bring them the sports
26:14
book. You should give it a five star
26:15
review and a nice comment on Amazon.
26:18
But you should also bring them a sports book.
26:20
I'll sign them for you. I'll buy you a beer or ginger
26:23
ale and we'll sweat the Yankees over here tonight together.
26:26
Next, have you downloaded rhythm and Juice reel yet?
26:28
My two favorite sports betting apps Rhythm.
26:30
Incredible job giving us these AI backed models and
26:33
predictions. Again, Rhythm had Jags plus 2.9.
26:36
We were getting 3 1/2. That was a great little nugget
26:39
part of our cap there that helped us cash that ticket.
26:42
So if you're a new to rhythm, just download the app Rhode
26:44
Island TH MMM, you can use promo code start 25 for 25% off.
26:50
There's also refer a friend discount.
26:51
There's leaderboard contest you can enter.
26:53
You can win up to 1000 bucks each week if you have the best
26:56
model. It's free to enter, so
26:58
definitely should give it a shot.
26:59
And then of course, we have our Thursday rhythm rundown shows.
27:02
So looking forward to that couple days from now.
27:05
It'll be streamed live on Twitter at 6:00 PM Eastern Time
27:07
every Thursday night. Myself and my buddy Kate Harper
27:11
and then also Juice Reel mentioned it before, but again,
27:14
this pod is free. It costs you nothing.
27:16
If you want to support the pod, you want to get the bets in
27:19
sooner than the podcast. You can get them immediately by
27:23
following the All Systems Go official best bet page on the
27:26
Juicer app. It costs $4.99 a week, but I
27:30
would argue hopefully that's very much well worth it.
27:33
Tipping your podcast host of course.
27:35
But also get in the plays early again, beating some closing
27:37
lines you're also going to get with Juice Reel, the Robo
27:39
Jackson best bet picks, the sharp Bush indicators, the
27:41
arbitrage plays, the shop for the best line futures, all
27:45
available when you download Juice Reel.
27:46
So download rhythm, download Juice Reel, give a five star
27:50
review in the App Store. Next you have a live odds page.
27:53
If you don't, you need one. It will make your life again.
27:56
Betting is hard, but it'll make your life so much easier and
27:59
really to me it's a required piece of information, just a
28:03
massive important tool that you need if you're going to bet on
28:05
sports on a daily basis. Because you got to be able to
28:08
track the market. You got to know what games are
28:10
being played tonight, start times, live scoring, live in
28:13
game wagering odds. But most of all, you got to be
28:15
able to track the market. What are the line open at?
28:17
Where is it now? Compare the opening column to
28:19
the current prices. Also, you're going to be able to
28:22
shop for the best line, identify steam, get the best price.
28:25
So I would love for you guys to give a shot to Odds Logic.
28:29
Odds Logic is the best new new live odds page out there and
28:36
Odds Logic is going to give you a 7 day free trial and 50% off
28:39
your first month of service. All you got to do is go to
28:42
oddslogic.com/josh 123 and I'll give you again, free trial, 50%
28:49
off your first month. Lastly, do you have Novig?
28:54
Novig is a betting exchange. It looks and operates just like
28:57
a sports book, but it's not a sports book because even though
28:59
it's legal, you're not betting against the house when you lose
29:02
the house isn't taking your money when you lose.
29:04
Another better is taking your money.
29:05
That may not sound great, but if I'm going to lose a bet, I'd
29:08
rather another better like me is going to get my money versus the
29:10
house and just add to their their millions and billions.
29:13
But really, the good thing about Novig is you just, you get
29:16
better prices, you're going to get better juice prices, almost
29:19
every juice price for the side and the total is less than -110
29:22
it's minus one O 5 -, 1 O 3. And when you win, you're not
29:26
going to get limited or booted. So download Novig and use the
29:29
promo code Josh 123 for 100% deposit match up to 25 bucks.
29:35
So you put in 25 bucks or more, Novig will add another 25.
29:38
Again, use the promo code Josh 123.
29:42
So that about does it for episode 368 of the ASG Pod on a
29:45
Tuesday. As always, guys, I'm gonna leave
29:48
you with a couple final thoughts.
29:49
Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in
29:52
Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan
29:55
Sun down in Connecticut, the Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge
29:58
Park, Casino, MGM Springfield, the Nash and my neck of the
30:01
woods on the border of Mass in New Hampshire.
30:04
Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
30:06
Or Billy Walter sends his number runners.
30:08
Or lowest juice possible is found at the South Point.
30:11
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
30:14
swim pool when he cash a big ticket at Circa.
30:16
You're going to walk up to me and you're going to flash me a
30:19
beautiful just amazing Jags plus 3 1/2 ticket.
30:23
What a sweat that was again down 14 nothing claw on our way back
30:29
then falling down again then Trevor Lawrence again.
30:32
That's a play I'll never forget. And again you can tell me it's
30:35
not as it wasn't as hard as it looked that you tried doing that
30:38
in the NFL game with the game on the line going up against the
30:41
Chiefs. That was absolutely incredible.
30:42
Lawrence did falling down, getting back up and and winning
30:45
the game for us with that final score.
30:47
So flash me a Jags ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
30:50
you. Will post about the book.
30:51
Sweat sharp contrarian plays all night long as always.
30:55
Guys coming off A1 and O night or an O and one night.
30:58
Good night, bad night, terrible night mediocre.
31:01
You're grinding in the middle somewhere.
31:03
Never get too high or too low and things are going well.
31:05
Don't get cocky and arrogant and think you're just always going
31:08
to win every play and double and triple down.
31:10
No, but also when you're struggling, don't give up, don't
31:13
get down on yourself, don't get depressed.
31:15
Don't don't punch a a hole through your wall or through a
31:18
window or ATV. You're never as hot or good as
31:20
you think. When you're doing well, you're
31:22
never as bad as you think. When you're cold, you're always
31:23
somewhere in the middle. So we can never guarantee the
31:26
outcome of these games. That's half that's half the fun
31:29
of it, I guess, the unpredictability of it.
31:31
But you know, we can do we can do our part to get down on the
31:34
games that fit our model. And that goes a little bit
31:37
something like this. Games that are against the
31:39
public, with the house, with the pros, flat bet, avoid parlays
31:42
and get that CLV. If we can do that and I'm
31:44
confident that we can, then guess what we're going to be
31:46
successful sports sweaters. So have a great Tuesday night
31:49
everybody. Let's get some runs in the Bronx
31:51
tonight. And no matter what, we'll be
31:53
back at it tomorrow for a little Wednesday edition of the All
31:56
Systems Go sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
31:59
That'll be episode 369. But good luck everybody, Have a
32:03
fantastic night and I'll see you tomorrow.
32:06
Good luck.