Latest / The Fourcast / Has Trump 'CHICKENED OUT' on Iran ultimatum - experts explain

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Has Trump 'CHICKENED OUT' on Iran ultimatum - experts explain · The Fourcast

0:00
The Iranians will feel completely vindicated by what's
0:02
happened. You get threatened and you
0:04
threaten back and things de escalate.
0:07
And where are we now? Is the Strait of Hormuz open?
0:10
No, it's not. The only thing that's changed is
0:13
that the threat that Trump was talking about hasn't
0:16
materialized. This is a regime that is now
0:18
getting ready for a long fight. Even if both sides declare
0:22
mission accomplished, the the Pandora's box has been opened.
0:26
There is no for the Iranian regime.
0:28
There's no going back to how things work.
0:30
How do the Gulf states feel now? Their whole dream of a sort of
0:33
Faberge egg existence in the middle of a dangerous
0:36
neighborhood has been shattered. Can that be rebuilt?
0:39
It takes 2 to Taco, so you can Taco on your own, but you're
0:44
going to need the Iranian government to play along.
0:51
Hello and welcome to the forecast once again coming to
0:53
you from Jerusalem. All I'm happy to say, not quite
0:56
as noisy as it was last time we spoke.
0:58
So has Taco Trump struck again? The president is denying that
1:02
he's chickened out of striking Iranian power plants if the
1:05
Strait of Hormuz stays shut. It's all about good and
1:08
productive talks, he said today. Iran doesn't agree.
1:11
They think that he's backed down after their own firm warning.
1:15
Either way, the markets loved it.
1:17
Gas and oil prices fell dramatically on the announcement
1:20
almost immediately. Israel, maybe not so much.
1:23
It is still striking what it calls the heart of Tehran and
1:27
says that bombing will continue for weeks.
1:29
So is the first sign that the war could be ending or not.
1:33
Well, to discuss all this and there's plenty to discuss, I'm
1:35
joined now by the former CD diplomat in the US State
1:38
Department, Jennifer Gavito, Rena SAW Senior Fellow in the
1:42
Middle East Program at Chatham House, and our very own Helia
1:45
Ebrahimi, Economics Editor. Another very busy day here with
1:49
lots of things happening all the time.
1:51
Let's start, first of all, with Trump's extraordinary post this
1:54
morning as the markets were waking up in New York and some
1:58
of them going to bed in Asia. But also then what he followed
2:01
up on the tarmac in Palm Beach, this sort of unbelievable weave
2:06
that I think went on for 45 minutes where he produced enough
2:10
headlines to last an entire month.
2:12
So first of all, to you, Jen, when you heard him talk about
2:16
this, you know, kind of cessation of fighting or they
2:20
didn't call it a ceasefire and the pause in the bombing, did
2:24
you? Did you believe it?
2:26
Did you believe that there were talks behind it?
2:28
What did you make of it? Yeah, I believe it.
2:31
I think that I this is a sign that there is engagement.
2:36
I'm not surprised that the Iranians are positioning
2:38
themselves as well, jumping way ahead of where we are today.
2:42
I think any off ramp is going to have to come with some face
2:46
saving measures for for all the participants.
2:49
And so each of those positioning to frame this as they as they
2:53
can sell to their publics, including for President Trump
2:58
being described as chickening out, that makes a lot of sense
3:02
to me. That being said, there I think
3:05
are divergent objectives that remain between Israel and the
3:08
United States in particular. So whether we are on our way to
3:12
an off ramp or whether this is the opening salvo, I think
3:15
remains to be seen. So you think he chickened out?
3:18
I don't know that I think he chickened out.
3:20
I think he's looking at the popularity, which is very low,
3:25
and the economic impacts on both the United States and globally,
3:32
and is rightly looking at ways to get out of this, this pickle
3:37
that he has found himself in. So I don't know if it's
3:40
chickening out so much as demonstrating finally some
3:43
flexibility and how you find an end to the conflict.
3:47
I mean, Renard, considering you know how much the regime has
3:50
been hit by in Iran, 17,000 targets hit by the Israelis and
3:55
by the Americans, much of their leadership annihilated,
3:59
destroyed, As Trump likes to remind us, this is quite a
4:03
victory for them, isn't it? I guess one can call it a
4:06
mission accomplished, potentially a moment.
4:08
I'm just like the Americans did in 2003.
4:11
It's, it's, you know, there is one aspect of this is the
4:14
military aspect. And, and on strict military
4:17
terms, yes, there is tactical, you know, short term wins.
4:21
You, you know, of course the US and Israel were going to bomb
4:25
and decapitate. But what we know is that the
4:28
Warner doesn't end when when the militaries declare victory.
4:33
What we know is that conflicts will continue even after
4:36
victories are are are declared. And and that is the way that
4:40
Iran sees this now. I think Iran understands now
4:44
that the status quo that it was holding on to is no longer
4:48
feasible, that the region is changing and Iran is now
4:52
becoming less of a predictable actor.
4:54
What they've shown is the power of geography, and I guess
4:58
they're kind of lucky with their geography.
4:59
I'm talking about the Strait of Hormuz.
5:01
Geography is destiny, Matt. Geography is destiny.
5:05
And it is for them, but also that, you know, and their
5:07
ability through geography to hold, you know, the world
5:11
economy by a chokehold. I think geography is certainly
5:14
very important, of course. And, you know, the one of the
5:17
unpredictable moves was, would Iran actually to stop?
5:21
You know, you work on the Strait of Hormuz and, and, and, and,
5:24
and, and play this card. It has played this card.
5:27
I think there's another issue here as well beyond geography,
5:30
which is history. And we know that the Trump
5:32
administration did not really care about the history of this
5:36
country, the history of these people.
5:38
It was always looking forward, not thinking about who they are.
5:41
And so now they're asking, wait a minute, why aren't they
5:43
backing down? Why do they seem suicidal?
5:46
You know, suicidal implies some kind of rationality, but it's
5:49
based on both geography and an misunderstanding of, of, of this
5:53
of Iran, which has existed in this geography for for a long
5:57
time before the Americans started coming in.
5:59
I mean, we've been talking about the economy a lot in the last
6:02
few weeks and it was astonishing to see the global impact of this
6:06
war. People queuing up in Sri Lanka
6:09
to fill their tuk tuks with gas in Thailand.
6:12
You know, the, the the news readers were taking off their
6:15
jackets, you know, trying to advertise the fact that you can
6:18
live in a studio without air conditioning, etcetera,
6:21
etcetera, really had a global impact.
6:22
And I guess the markets were driven to very much the edge of
6:25
a nervous breakdown without getting into the numbers because
6:28
they change, you know, on a, on a minute by minute basis.
6:31
I do at the moment, Matt, I do at the moment.
6:34
On a tweet by tweet basis. On a tweet by tweet.
6:37
Exactly right. Post by post, although maybe
6:40
they've calmed down a bit now, but but tell me about the state
6:43
of mind of the markets this morning as this dawn post
6:47
appeared. Well, look, it's complete
6:51
whiplash in the markets, Matt. You had this threat from Trump
6:55
over the weekend that Iran had 48 hours to comply, otherwise
7:00
they were going to escalate the war.
7:03
You saw the price of oil crude tip up towards $114.00.
7:08
Even American crude was going towards $100.
7:12
The price of U.S. debt was going getting quite tasty actually.
7:18
And suddenly you, I saw Trump doing exactly what he's done
7:21
every week, which has come out into the market before the US
7:25
market opens and say, don't worry, everything's going to be
7:29
all right. And suddenly you show this
7:31
dramatic fall in the price of oil.
7:35
You saw a dramatic fall in the cost of debt, interest for
7:39
Americans, for Europeans, for Brits, in the cost of gas.
7:44
But I have to tell you, Matt, that it has risen since.
7:49
And this is because the market is digesting what is the truth
7:53
of this? You know, Trump may say, we're
7:55
in these great talk. Which is why I said in the
7:58
beginning, do we believe this or not?
8:00
Do we believe this? Well, I'm, I think the market is
8:03
not sure whether it can believe this.
8:05
The problem is that when there are no fundamentals at play,
8:08
then every headline leads the nose of the where the market's
8:13
going. I mean, the Iranians will feel
8:15
completely vindicated by what's happened.
8:17
You threaten them, you get threatened and you threaten back
8:20
and things de escalate. And where are we now?
8:23
Is the Strait of Hormuz open? No, it's not.
8:26
Is the risk of energy supplies moving freely increased?
8:30
Yes, it is. The only thing that's changed is
8:33
that the threat that Trump Trump was talking about over the
8:36
weekend hasn't materialized. But you know, Matt, it takes 2
8:41
to Taco. So you can Taco on your own, but
8:45
you're going to need the Iranian government government to play
8:47
along. Nice one.
8:49
I might have to steal that, Jen. I mean, let's talk about the
8:52
Israelis briefly. I'm in Jerusalem.
8:54
I've heard a couple of Israeli officials on the local channels
8:57
this morning. I mean, I have to say none of
8:59
them sound particularly convinced.
9:01
And there was that one moment when Trump said we're not
9:03
revealing, revealing the name of the person that we're
9:06
negotiating with because you might get killed.
9:08
And of course, you wonder who would they be killed by?
9:11
I mean, did the Israelis, would it be American or maybe the
9:14
Revolutionary Guard? So anyway, Jen, you know, not
9:19
everyone is on board with this. We're the biggest obstacles.
9:23
Yeah. I mean, I you could, you could
9:25
almost argue it takes three days to take out Taco in that there
9:29
are three parties to this conflict.
9:30
And I think increasingly we are going to see divergent between
9:33
the objectives of the United States and the objectives of
9:36
Israel. For Israel, from the beginning,
9:38
regime change has been the objective and that dates back.
9:42
I would argue it's 20 years for the United States.
9:45
I think, you know, as Renaud says, we are likely to get to a
9:48
point out of necessity where the president claims military and
9:52
operational victory and says that's exactly how we intended
9:55
for this to unfold. We've achieved everything we set
9:57
out to do. A little bit of revisionist
9:59
history is likely to come into play.
10:02
But for this conflict to end, Iran and Israel both have to
10:06
play ball. And for Israel, I think, you
10:09
know, there is a closing window of opportunity to eliminate Iran
10:13
as a as a strategic threat. And that is their that is their
10:16
objective here. And so, you know, there's a
10:18
world where they continue to strike.
10:21
And that was the United States in quite a difficult position in
10:24
that its assets will continue to be targeted.
10:27
It's both allies will continue to be targeted.
10:29
And so does that then, you know, risk the US, even if it tries to
10:32
extract itself, getting pulled back in.
10:34
But but the Israelis could also take the win, couldn't they?
10:37
I mean, they could say thanks to the Americans, we've really
10:40
managed to deplete Iran's military capabilities.
10:43
We've destroyed the Ring of Fire in the region.
10:45
Iran's proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis to some
10:49
extent in Yemen. I mean, Iran, whatever is left
10:51
of it, whatever's left of the regime is fundamentally
10:54
weakened. Even though it is, it's still
10:57
just about standing and it's still resolved to continue.
11:00
Somehow. It is not what it was.
11:02
But Matt, even even Iran at this point can claim victory.
11:06
And I was talking to an energy analyst earlier today who is
11:10
discussing that maybe this is the point where both the US and
11:14
the Iranian regime, the Iranian regime can say, look, we've
11:17
survived. We've been vindicated.
11:20
We've survived. We haven't outgunned the
11:23
Americans, but we've outlasted them on the economic pain.
11:27
And the Americans can say, as Trump did on the tarmac, we're
11:31
we have, we've replaced one supreme leader with another.
11:34
We have, you know, obliterated there, I think.
11:37
That that may in fact be where we're headed, but there are a
11:40
couple of problems with that. The first is that there are 200
11:43
kilograms of high enriched uranium that remain an Iranian
11:46
possession. And so if you go back to the
11:48
start of this conflict and what President Trump named, as you
11:51
know, among the many things that he claimed along the way were
11:55
were key US objectives, dismantlement of the nuclear
11:58
program was was chief among them.
12:00
And so, you know, as far as I can tell, there has been no
12:03
progress made towards dismantling further the nuclear
12:07
program, which of course was the target of the 12 day war last
12:10
summer. So you can claim victory, but
12:12
that's still in place, you still have expertise retained.
12:15
And now you have arguably a harder line regime coming into
12:18
power that will change the, you know, long term of view on
12:23
weaponization of the nuclear program and decide that the only
12:28
course open to Iran to re establish deterrence and ensure
12:31
that this doesn't happen in the future is in fact development of
12:34
a nuclear weapon. And so I I you know, I hope that
12:37
there is a de escalation to be found, but I'm not sure that I'm
12:42
not sure that fundamentally Iran comes out of this as weak as you
12:46
described. The other piece, of course, is
12:48
the Gulf. And, you know, as much as
12:51
perhaps they wish that this cycle had not been set off,
12:56
leaving the Gulf vulnerable in the future to to disruptions of
13:01
the Strait of formals, potentially the Bible Amendeb,
13:05
and certainly to Iranian willingness to to attack its
13:10
neighbors. I think it's kind of the worst
13:11
case scenario for them at this point.
13:13
They've taken the economic pain, the dismantlement to a large
13:17
degree of their of their energy, of their energy infrastructure.
13:21
And then, you know, for the US to potentially walk away leaves
13:24
them in a very, very vulnerable position.
13:26
I hope you can all hear the bells of Jerusalem.
13:28
By the way, it's that time of the evening and it's very
13:30
atmospheric here. But I'm not sure if they're the
13:33
bells of long term peace or just, you know, a short term
13:35
deal right now. I mean, one of the questions
13:38
that came up with and Trump dealt with it in a typically
13:40
Trumpian way, was who he's actually negotiating with on the
13:44
Iranian side, or rather who Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff
13:47
are negotiating with. And as I said before, he
13:49
wouldn't give us the name, but tell us about what you think is
13:52
going on inside the Iranian, the rump Iranian regime.
13:56
Who's got the authority to talk to the Americans?
13:59
Are they in danger for some of the hardline radicals who may
14:03
not like the idea of a deal and they're rather enjoying this
14:05
chokehold on the world economy? I think certainly what's become
14:10
clear is the Iranian state was deeper than perhaps Trump and
14:15
and and and and and his advisers anticipated that this is a state
14:20
of institutions that have hierarchies that have standard
14:24
operating procedures and that also we're preparing for this,
14:29
particularly since last year's 12 day war in June 2025.
14:33
S yes, there has been the senior leadership has been decapitated.
14:38
Yes, that will bring fragmentation.
14:40
But there is a Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, which is
14:44
very much in control and very much continuing to to to lead on
14:49
the war efforts. There is still a foreign
14:51
minister, there is still a president.
14:53
There are still, I mean, you know, this is not a yes,
14:57
Khamenei was the supreme leader, but this is not a regime around
15:02
a single person like we could think in other countries.
15:06
This is a regime that's incredibly deep, that has
15:10
experience in this kinds of war. It fought an 8 year war with
15:13
Iraq, which was incredibly, you know, brutal and violent.
15:17
This is a regime that is now getting ready for a long fight.
15:22
Even if there is, even if both sides declare.
15:25
Mission accomplished. The the Pandora's box has been
15:29
opened. There is no for the Iranian
15:30
regime, there's no going back to how things were.
15:33
There is no going back to the status quo.
15:35
And, and I think for Israel as well, there is no going back
15:38
either. So, so we're very much living in
15:40
a time where things are changing on the ground.
15:42
Realities are changing every day.
15:44
But there is a regime still in Iran.
15:47
Yes, hurt. Yes, more fragmented, but still
15:49
driving. The regime change was barely
15:51
mentioned on the the tarmac by Donald Trump in Palm Beach
15:54
today. And of course, that was one of
15:56
the original reasons why we went in.
15:58
And I think he was, you know, probably very inspired to go in
16:00
by what he saw, you know, on the streets of Tehran at the
16:03
beginning of the year. So do you think that this means
16:06
that the regime can now breathe a sigh of relief?
16:09
Or is it possible that after this has calmed down a little
16:12
bit that, you know, and people feel they can get back on the
16:15
streets without being hit by American bombs or Israeli bombs,
16:19
We might actually see that moment where enough people get
16:23
together and say, you know, let's get rid of the ayatollahs.
16:26
I think it's an incredibly difficult question.
16:29
Certainly, you know, there there were people the Iranians have
16:33
been have want regime change, they want a better life.
16:37
But at at the same time, since those protests a few months ago,
16:40
these are people who now have have having their electricity
16:43
cut, who have their food supplies cut, who have medicine
16:45
cut. I mean, this is they're in
16:47
survival mode. These wars, these sanctions,
16:50
these regime change, they, they, they, you know, they harm the
16:54
people even more than they harm the regime.
16:57
And I think because of that, these people have been even
17:00
weakened. Yes.
17:01
And, and, and it's a, and it's a predicament because they, when
17:04
they did rise up in, in January, they were put down by the same
17:08
regime. But at the same time, society is
17:09
exhausted, is being bombed, doesn't have medicine.
17:13
And, and I think, you know, history tells us that this is
17:16
not the recipe for, for, for that type of democratic
17:19
uprising. I mean, it is exhausted and and
17:22
really stretched, Matt, because it's the people you, you know,
17:26
you were talking about or, or is Iran in a weaker state?
17:29
But actually they've just won sanctions relief from their oil.
17:32
And there's some satellite imagery today showing the Hajj
17:37
island actually loading Iranian oil now, thanks to the White
17:41
House being sold sanction free. That helps the Iranian regime
17:47
doesn't help the Iranian people. The Iranian people are at risk
17:51
of actually facing a worst economic climate and potentially
17:55
a more hard line government. Helia, I mean, the Trump also
17:59
mentioned the Gulf States and he almost apologized to them and
18:01
said, well, no one saw this coming, that the Iranians would
18:03
lash out at the Gulf state. And, and I would say, well,
18:06
actually a few people did see that coming, but never mind,
18:08
let's, let's park that somewhere else.
18:11
But how do the Gulf states feel now they have been exposed.
18:14
Their whole dream of a sort of Faberge egg existence in the
18:18
middle of a dangerous neighborhood has been shattered.
18:21
Can that be rebuilt or will they always feel vulnerable?
18:24
And will they become militarily much more aggressive, do you
18:27
think, towards Iran, should the Iranians try something again?
18:31
Well, I think, I think they clearly are vulnerable and
18:33
that's been exposed. You know, people are talking
18:36
about the damage. The IEA says 40 infrastructure
18:40
sites across the Gulf in terms of energy have been hit, but we
18:44
don't know the extent of it. And there's some suggestion, you
18:47
know what, how long term is the damage?
18:50
Are we talking about months? You know, even if the war ends
18:53
this week, are we talking about months?
18:56
Are we talking about years? And if so, how long?
18:59
I think you've got things like Dubai real estate at the moment
19:02
just plummeting. So these this, as you said, this
19:05
Faberge egg, this idea of these cocooned high tech modern
19:11
societies with high growth economies that are completely
19:14
insulated. Well, that's for the birds now.
19:17
Senior Iranian official saying to Reuters the US has requested
19:21
a meeting with Iran's parliament, Parliament speaker
19:24
Khali Buff on Saturday. Tehran has yet to respond.
19:27
Tell us about the speaker of the parliament.
19:29
How powerful is he? Does he represent the wider rump
19:34
regime and is he putting himself into a bit of danger by having
19:38
his name out there? Yeah, I suppose anyone putting
19:42
the name out there or negotiating then becomes a
19:44
target for the US and Israel. I think.
19:48
Look, there are these are people who are in the system who, who
19:51
consider themselves not to be part of, you know, some of the
19:54
more extreme elements of it and who are trying to negotiate who
20:00
to some extent. Whereas, you know, the more
20:04
extreme wing of the system in Iran is, is looking, you know,
20:08
looking for war, looking for continued conflict.
20:10
This is, you know, this is their hard line.
20:13
There are those in the system who?
20:15
Or looking for off ramps, certainly.
20:18
And although whether they admit it or not, there will be talks.
20:21
And I think these types of individuals have historically in
20:25
the Iranian system, been the communicators or the messengers,
20:29
you know, more than actual negotiators.
20:31
Jen, it strikes me that the theme of the second Trump
20:34
administration, whether it's Ukraine or Iran, is that there's
20:38
an ongoing, almost permanent round the clock battle for
20:42
Trump's attention, You know, to have Trump's ear to persuade him
20:47
that you know that your course is better than someone else's
20:49
course. And in this case, you know, it's
20:51
the Israelis whispering into ear, it's the Iranians
20:55
whispering into the other ear, the Gulf states not quite sure
20:58
which ear to whisper into. Is that what's going on here?
21:01
I think to some degree, but yeah, absolutely.
21:04
I mean, I certainly think that describes how we got into this,
21:06
right. And some, you know, assurances
21:09
that probably were unrealistic. And I, I do, we've referenced it
21:12
a couple of times. But I think one of the more
21:14
concerning things about this conflict is the lack of
21:17
expertise that President Trump has around him.
21:19
There need to be people that understand nuclear, for example,
21:22
in these discussions and and there haven't been.
21:24
And so if you're if you're going to get to a place where you come
21:27
up with a, a lasting formula for success, that that has to be
21:32
part of the equation. And we're not there yet.
21:33
There is so much market playing at the moment.
21:36
There's so much you know we would call it front running.
21:39
You know, there there is so much pre market chatter to say if you
21:44
know put you know, the stock market back into the green, to
21:47
put oil prices back into a relatively healthy place that
21:52
the people within the market are saying do we believe the US
21:56
President and that is an extraordinary position to be in.
22:00
I don't know that the president is lying, but I don't know
22:03
whether you can count on to your point that that what he is
22:08
saying is going to outlast the the market day, Right.
22:12
But Israel is clearly advocating for this to continue.
22:15
People like Senator Lindsey Graham clearly advocating for
22:18
this to continue. And they're painting a picture
22:20
of what success might look like. And again, without, you know,
22:23
without counter voices in the room giving them a dose of
22:25
reality. I think it's it's quite it's
22:27
quite difficult. And then, yes, you've got the
22:29
Gulf. On the other hand, there are
22:31
reports in the last 24 hours that the Gulf is actually
22:33
advocating for, you know, to quote, finish the job targeting
22:37
back to this very vulnerable position that they're going to
22:39
be in if we if we simply walk away from this and and declare a
22:43
mission accomplished. You know, he comes up with these
22:45
comments. He throws them out like, like,
22:47
like popcorn, like confetti. And, you know, when markets
22:51
hinge on this, when war and peace hinges on this, when
22:54
people are literally wondering whether they can get through the
22:57
day or, you know, another piece of ordinance will come down on
23:00
their heads, whether you're a member of the regime or just an
23:02
ordinary citizen trying to survive, you know, between the
23:05
rubble and the bombs in Tehran. And I think that's earlier.
23:09
Why the markets, you know, I'm not taking that seriously.
23:12
And, and, and I think, Jen, that's where we have a problem
23:15
going forward with either the Israelis believing him or the
23:18
Iranians believing him or us believing him.
23:21
Yeah, 100%. And I think he's what he's
23:26
fundamentally doing is throwing things in a wall and seeing what
23:28
sticks. There is still hope that whether
23:30
it is Carred Island, whether it is sending Marine Expedition
23:34
Expeditionary Unit, whether it is threatening infrastructure.
23:37
All of these are a test to see which resonates and finds that
23:41
perfect formula whereby it addresses domestic US concerns
23:45
about the the direction of this conflict.
23:48
At the same time brings it brings it to a Swiss close.
23:51
And so each of these are, you know, test bombs.
23:54
And Jen, the the US market has been remarkably resilient to all
23:59
of Trump's ideas. You know, whether it be the
24:01
tariff war, whether it now be the war in Iran, there's been an
24:06
incredible resilience given what is actually happening on the
24:10
ground when it comes to affordability in the US.
24:13
When you've got, you know, gas at the the pump at, you know,
24:16
580 a gallon in the US, then it starts to eke away at him what's
24:21
happening in the market starts to creep into what he's going to
24:25
do. And I think it's that economic
24:27
pain he has to address. So yes, his messaging might be
24:31
signalling, but he has to respond to it.
24:33
I mean, I guess one of the litmus tests of this 15 point
24:36
plan or of Trump's commitments and statements today on the
24:40
tarmac is whether the tankers are actually allowed through the
24:44
Straits of Hormuz. And I'm not just talking about
24:46
the ones that the Iranians have given the green light to that
24:49
belong to Pakistan and other countries in recent days.
24:52
So do we know if the tankers are going through and do you think
24:57
that they would be wise to let them through?
25:01
I think this is, you know, Iran's weapon right now in this
25:05
war and and it would have to use this weapon strategically, you
25:12
know, to negotiate. Certainly Iran might, if, you
25:14
know, if it would need to, would allow some of the tanks to go
25:18
through. As you say, a lot of the tankers
25:19
are allowed to go through and there's almost a one-on-one
25:22
negotiation happening between different states, different
25:26
companies and Iran. In fact, this could be the
25:29
beginning of a new Iranian sort of influence in the region.
25:35
That Iran, this card that was OFT always thought as being
25:39
impossible, a card that was thought about, you know, you,
25:42
you'd never get there. They've gotten there.
25:43
We're there now. So Iran might even after this
25:46
war ends, might always have this card now to deploy to negotiate
25:51
by bilaterally, multilaterally, and certainly if, if, if it is
25:54
being attacked in that war. Renaud, first you What are you
25:57
going to be looking out for in the next 5 days as the Doomsday
26:01
Clock is being reset? What are you going to be looking
26:03
out for specifically to see whether this is more substantial
26:07
than what the skeptics might think?
26:10
I think I think the one thing is to look out for is sort of the
26:13
economic activity. I think Iran has very much made
26:15
the economy and the straits and the waterways, it's battlefield.
26:20
And so the extent to which that battlefield changes would would
26:23
give a sort of sense of where the Iranians are willing to go
26:26
and to negotiate beyond the rhetoric that we have on on
26:29
social media or in, you know, Iranian state channels.
26:33
What about you? What will you be looking out
26:35
for? I'll be looking for the markets
26:36
to close on Friday. I this is a 5 day reprieve of,
26:41
of the threat to to take out power infrastructure and my
26:46
understanding is that our military assets are also due to
26:49
arrive in about 5 days. I suspect there is not a
26:53
coincidence. And so it does provide a window
26:55
if Iran is open to de escalating.
26:59
Then we'll see some of the things maybe that Renata is
27:00
talking about. But I think the real test will
27:03
come Friday night and we'll get a better sense of which
27:06
direction the administration wants to take this and and who
27:09
succeeded in whispering in the right ear this week.
27:11
If for some reason it all goes horribly wrong by Friday or the
27:15
weekend, I mean the markets are going to have a terrible day on
27:19
Monday, aren't they? You know, yeah, absolutely.
27:23
I mean there were some suggestions from city that oil
27:27
could go beyond $200 a barrel and that kind of doomsday
27:32
scenario is definitely on the cards if it's not shown to
27:35
resolve. And I think every week you are
27:37
seeing this volatility of bounce back the the pricing in of the
27:43
risk becomes higher. But Matt, just you know, you
27:46
don't need it to go badly. Inflation will already go
27:49
higher. And for me, it we'll be looking
27:51
at how the implications of that for consumers, for companies,
27:57
for different countries across the world.
27:59
And whatever happens in the next 5 days, some of that
28:02
unfortunately is already baked in.
28:04
Thanks very much to all of you. Helia Ibrahimi, our Economics
28:08
Editor, Reynard Mansoor, Chatham House, and Jen Capito, formerly
28:12
of the State Department. Thanks to all of you.
28:14
Absolutely fascinating. That's it from the forecast here
28:18
in Jerusalem.