Latest / The Curve / TCW93: Post-election markets: stocks, ethics, and uncertain times.

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TCW93: Post-election markets: stocks, ethics, and uncertain times. · The Curve

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  Welcome to the Curve Weekly, the podcast that keeps you up to date with all of the money
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  business and stock market too. Brought to you by the Curve's research team,
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  that's the latest insights on what's happening in the stock market, companies,
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  other money-related news so that you can stay educated and adhere to the Curve.
• 0:15
  You can thank us later for sounding smarter than those finance bros you need to turn up, honey.
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  Yeah, there's been breathing. Breathe out. Actually, yeah, let's talk connected.
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  Okay, it's been a week for everybody, particularly women all over the world. I think it's been,
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  um, we actually, we didn't put up our reason in the Curve episode last week because
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  it was the day that Donald Trump became the president of the United States and we all just thought,
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  you know what, there's a lot going on in the world. Yeah, we just need to pause.
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  So, we've actually invited Denny to join us for the Curve Weekly today. And she's Drusy
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  as woman's rights. In black, do you? Yes. The absence of colour and joy.
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  It's so, it's we, we actually had a, um, like a work meeting with a brand that we're working with
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  over here in the UK and there was six of us having a drink the day that had happened.
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  But there was something kind of lovely about feeling brought together by woman in that moment.
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  I don't know if you guys felt that, like it was, it was terrifying. And when I got home, I think,
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  it kind of hit me and I got really upset. But in that moment, talking to
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  educators, women who had things to say, who have been following the election, who felt different
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  things, I found it in a strange way at quite empowering. I'm just like exhausted. You know,
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  you constantly are fighting to progress women in all elements. It's not just financial, but just like
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  and it's just when you have such a setback like this, it's just you're like, when do I give up?
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  You know, it's, it's, you, you fight and fight and fight and fight. And there's this
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  monumentous thing that could have really changed the narrative in a positive way for women
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  going forward. And it's just like, you know, it's like we need to give up.
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  Based on what we do, for example, and every single day we have these conversations about
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  female, the place in the in the world for females and the power that we can get through education,
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  it's just, it's one of those moments where I'm so impressed by the female response to it even,
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  even in such loss and devastation of what could have been the softness of the reaction.
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  And by that, I don't mean, you know, people haven't been angry, but I mean, the reaction has been,
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  no, no, we don't give up. We do keep going and this won't change us and this won't break it.
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  You know, and I think that that's such a female, female energy because a man I imagine would be
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  angrier and sort of more pointed with everything and sort of lashing out. But women are like,
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  okay, we keep going. Yeah, we've got this hard. We can fight for another four years.
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  It's unlikely that we will see huge, huge amounts of change in the next 10 years,
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  but it doesn't mean that the small incremental steps we're taking are irrelevant.
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  I think what it's made me feel is so proud and grateful and connected to my ancestors
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  and to all the women that came before me, like to think that there was a time not that long ago
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  that we couldn't even vote, blows my mind. Imagine how frustrating that would have been for them.
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  Imagine, you know, and this is our fight right now. This is time for us to step up and come
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  together and not lose hope and not lose the power that we do have and realise how important
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  our voices are and I don't know, I think in a way it made me reflect on my grandmother's
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  and the fact that we write all the time about how women didn't, you know,
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  weren't able to even get a credit card without their husband's signature. That was my grandmother
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  wasn't able to do that and it's just from there we've come so far and I think almost up until
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  this moment there was this false sense of how far we've come and I think that the result of
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  the election has been a real slapdown to reality of how far we still have to go.
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  But if anything, I think it's given me more fire up my, I was going to say my bum but that's
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  not what I'm looking for. Fire my belly to keep going because yeah I mean it's so frustrating
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  and it's so exhausting and it's so sad and you know I think it's fine if people are feeling that
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  way and they want to just take a minute to feel really sorry for themselves and actually just
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  not give up but temporarily just like take their foot off the accelerator but remember how far
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  we've come in the last 500 years and how proud our grandchildren will be when they look back at
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  this time of us continuing to push forward. We have to and it's not just far so our generation it's
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  for everyone to come and I think what for me has been the most heartbreaking is I think definitely
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  from a environmental standpoint and the interconnectedness of what is happening in the stock market
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  which obviously will get into in a second but yesterday we had a team meeting with our
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  pension provider and it was so if he was in the dog we had cuddling the dog I was like
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  we need to know this because we are business owners and we have staff but also we have financial
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  educators and she's like I'm tapped out but I think what kind of hit me and I've been thinking
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  about women's rights trans rights all of the human rights elements that I hadn't really connected
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  to the financial dot and when we were looking at the way that our pension so this is like a
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  kiwisaba super for one okay it's the retirement that our company and employees are all in
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  when I was looking at it Tom actually our financial director was like oh there's lots of ESG
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  like lots of environmental funds that were invested in and the guy that was doing the presentation
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  made some comment about how yeah that's all going to be divested can you explain that?
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  yeah yeah no so we were just making an observation that there was a lot of visiting ESG
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  and the performance had been great and whether that performance would continue going forward
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  yeah it's interesting to see already the dynamic playing out of people making a lot of money
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  from visiting oil and gas it's a perfect example of but that's fine because we're in it for the long
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  game yeah and we don't plan on using this money for the next 30 years and it's for something that's
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  very far down the line and with the fluctuations of the results from the election the panic
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  that people would have it's almost good that we can't get into it yeah it's good that we can't
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  access this you know and it's only four years in the scheme of things we're going to be invested
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  for 30 it's like don't feel like our previous episode on the election don't do anything you know
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  you can be clued up with what's going on in the impacts that Trump is having on the stock market
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  button you don't have to do anything yeah how did everyone hear if you're being really honest did
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  anyone decide to invest in something different to put money somewhere that they hadn't planned on
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  in order to make games from the economic shift yeah well I mean like for a lot of people who are
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  like what are you talking about I guess you know whether it be Bitcoin because Trump's a mess of
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  Bitcoin supporter whether it's oil and gas the fact that we knew that that was going to go up if
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  he was in power did either of you invest in things based on that no no long-term investor
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  yes that's a good one but I just couldn't ethically do it I there was there were moments and
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  Vick and I was speaking about this earlier and there were moments where we could see what was
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  going to happen in the market and you know if you if you read his policies it was pretty laid out
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  in front of us that oil and gas and was going to skyrocket but that just wasn't enough for me to
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  want to put money in it because it would have felt like the wrong thing to do yeah also his company
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  Trump media with a net company Trump media is his social media platform so he runs like well he's
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  in power he's going to be all over that people are going to be watching it people are going to be
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  using it so of course it's going to do well but it's also a question of we do draw the line because
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  for me it's like I would never invest in Trump media because he's a direct beneficiary and I'm
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  so far away from his values and in what he believes so I wouldn't even invest in that but yet
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  I invest in Tesla and Elon Musk is one of Trump's biggest allies now so but I didn't think
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  to draw the line there so it's like where do you draw the line you know Tesla's done fantastically
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  well but on that I also invest in Tesla because of the product the product and the necessity that
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  we need those products in order to reduce carbon emissions so but then I'm sitting there going
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  I want to do some issues in Tesla because of who's running the company but then I'm also in
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  this dichotomy of but I also want to support the company that's going to bring about change for
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  the planet so it's like so what are you going to do I've just left it yeah yeah because you're
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  going to let this cool off yeah and then you'll be looking at that in six months time and say
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  no I do believe in the products that are being created and and the good that they're bringing to
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  the world but I feel guilty hmm I feel more guilty than I did a few months ago and that's like
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  it's a funny thing to sit with because is there one you could could you pull those out and put it
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  into a you know a competitor stock that arguably might not do as well but it's still creating good
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  for the world yeah yeah but it's just it's just like I guess a classic example of investing
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  in alignment with your values and that can change when the world changes and what is the kind of
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  the tipping point for you but I think it can even be the idea of like investing full stock I feel
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  really disempowered and like unexcited by the SMV 500 the entire US economy I don't really want
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  anything to do with like I feel really extreme about it for me it's not just a company or
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  a media it's the whole idea of investing I feel off in general why is that I just feel disappointed in
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  everything and normal circumstances if the US economy was doing really well and the SMV 500 was
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  going up there would be things I would feel excited about or I would understand it the fact that
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  it's all just aligned with him and what he represents for me is just shitty but it's not
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  it's a mind of him and I think that it's important to remember that there's sections of the SMV 500
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  that will be directly in line with his values but there's massive sections that aren't yeah and
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  there could be for I don't I haven't counted I haven't done this research but 450 companies say
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  in the SMV 500 that are doing good things are employing hundreds of thousands of people are
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  bringing dollars into the economy in a positive way and by not supporting the SMV 500 based on
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  the minority of companies that support the ideals of Trump and his policies I think you're doing
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  it to service to all of the good companies yeah thank you so much I really needed to hear that
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  yeah I feel like the blanket statement of like I don't want to be some decent P500 is not
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  we all on the extreme yeah it's time to be extreme we're allowed to feel extreme for the next
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  few days yeah that I would love to go through some of the other things we saw happen in the stock
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  market and particular companies is there anything of note that you saw over the last you know a few
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  days and the last week from the election that's worth highlighting for people when Trump got into
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  power the top billionaires in the world became 64 billion dollars richer that is just what we
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  love and Elon Musk alone no wonder he was by Trump side telling people give them a million dollars
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  if they voted like he made 26 billion in one day like what a great return on investment
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  that's a solid ROI yeah yeah I'd be giving people a million dollars if I was going to make 26
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  billion Jeff Bezos made 7 billion Mark Zuckerberg actually declined based on the fact that he's
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  the majority shareholder of meter and meter as a social media platform and Trump media is a
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  social media platform got it so Trump media going well means that meter but all investors are
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  thinking that meter is not going to do as well I know he lost about 19 million dollars so he's
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  only got 200 billion do you know it's weird I'm like never thought let's see the day that I wanted
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  to go and be like go on Mark yeah go get it boy yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah I'm going to
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  invest a measure yeah Bitcoin's gone to 76,000 is that almost time huh yeah all time highs people
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  are thinking it's going to go to 100,000 pretty shortly and that's all because Trump's like we
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  want to make the US the crypto capital of the world he'll probably remove restrictions regulations
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  you know make it much more easy to use crypto and so all the everyone is like we're here let's
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  let's invest in crypto so I'm kind of okay with that I don't mind if crypto is doing well
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  because of Trump that doesn't stress me out recently 500 does but crypto doesn't I think but
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  well and it is actually really counterintuitive because if you know and you understand that crypto
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  uses a shit load of energy it's actually also not great for the environment I think my main
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  issue is drill baby drill drill baby drill sorry it's a good thing she did it yesterday it really
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  annoys me it just rolls off the tongue no sorry yeah what I don't really know much about crypto
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  it's such a black hole for me it's not I don't invest in it I've never really done much research
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  in it we have a great episode on that actually gosh it was back in the day do we need to check it was
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  still good before we were people go listen I'm like we did do it we found it from easy crypto yeah
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  jane jane oh my god it was raised in the code 21 is cryptocurrency something you should be
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  investing in it was actually really good yeah she broke down exactly how it works and what else
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  is happening the thing with Trump is that he is and I think this is the reason he got most of the
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  votes to be honest is that he is all about america first and that means protectionism that means
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  that's protect our country let's grow our country and who cares the detriment of europe china
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  we were else and so europe and china kind of freaking out going oh gosh he's gonna slap tariffs
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  on european import make it harder for european companies to be competitive in america so if that
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  happens thick what effects would that have on the european economy inflation so
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  he runs kind of freaking out going we've just got through like we've just got inflation under control
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  in most countries around the world and here he is being like let's slap taxes on on everything to
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  make everything more expensive and if that happened yeah would we be suggesting quietly that people
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  are benefiting from that by you know the use of term deposits and having extra interest in
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  savings accounts I thought if I thought of inflation's high you'll better to invest in the stock market
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  and and hot more high risk high return thanks rather than term deposits and keep me in the bank
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  well it depends what interest rates do so if the way to curb inflation and keep that under control
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  is to increase interest rates so you are slow down the way to curb inflation is to increase interest
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  and when interest rates are high sorry term deposits do well okay yeah and the stock market tends to
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  not do well I mean it's it's so hard to know what will happen but there's been a lot of headlines
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  being like oh gosh we're going to go back into an inflation a high inflation era and everyone's
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  just like oh remember when inflation was just never discussed I don't think many people outside
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  of the finance industry would have known what inflation was until four years ago just because it
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  wasn't talked about now it's just part of everyone's conversation yeah but it should be talked
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  about look if you don't want to see what inflation looks like you can watch out our October special
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  inflation made a you know appearance and now podcasting episode which one you
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  on me yeah I was literally inflation yeah it was what it's we were trying to make inflation no
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  we were trying to make investing not scary that was the whole premise or so if it was like how about
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  we dress up as inflation didn't on the idea pastor yes what else is happening there has been some
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  other big moves in the stock market and that is Nvidia now this company has become the biggest
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  company in on the stock market Nvidia when you first talked about this I remember thinking what a
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  stupid name and also it's so classic that it's hard to hear now when I hear a video I'm like oh
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  yeah now and I always got a friend video I think it's actually yeah yeah yeah before we get
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  video it's like five before D except after a you know that you should say we look like god damn I was
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  gonna invest in that six months ago and I didn't I don't have anything in the video at all oh really
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  it's be very hungry okay yeah that I have a portion of it but I think the fund that I'm invested in
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  in the S&P 500 it's only four or five percent like it's not a majority well I personally think
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  of money scratch the surface of AI so I think you've got plenty more years video I think
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  if we talk about it we should just do that but anyway it is now a 3.6 trillion dollar company
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  and it's been Apple who previously held the title and Apple's got 3.4 point hold on it's a bigger
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  company than Apple yeah it's a bigger company than any company any company yeah gosh that's
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  happened quickly yeah obviously because of the AI boom it's up 222 percent this year wow I think
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  I'm gonna do mmm video you know like just just even not a lot but because I agree I don't think
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  the AI boom yeah I think we're starting to boom it does skimmy investing things that have done so
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  well like this is this is uncommon I don't I can't remember many other times that I've seen a
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  company do this well in such a short first of time but then also we're in a different age
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  exactly you know this is the dawn of something else you know and I guess it's the same as when
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  we started having computers and tech products you know in the early 90s I might want to fact check
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  that yeah I remember my first use of a Mac it was it was a yay high yeah it was the school IT
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  room we had IT rooms full of computers do you remember when it started moving quickly people would
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  have said the same thing yeah yeah all I don't trust tech that moves this quickly and look where we
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  are now imagine if you've seen Apple then I don't ever want to be where I know well I don't sorry I was
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  for tell me what the next ever will be and then I'll be thinking maybe it's anyway the reason
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  so Nvidia has gone up and Apple has kind of stagnated or yeah I've gone down a bit and that's
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  all because Warren Buffett has sold a lot of his stake so he has he had about 900 million shares
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  he sold about 400 million in what an Apple so that's put pressure on the share price why has he
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  done that he's owned it for a while and he's done very very well out of it but that is the that is
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  the question why is he now sitting on 300 billion dollars of cash in his investment company the most
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  he's ever sat on what can he see that we can't see wait so he's got the most in cash than he's
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  either had either yeah but maybe he's about to make a big investment or he's waiting to see what
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  the market does post election or he's like you know what the market's done really well and I'm
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  scared about the next five ten years so the knock on effect though presumably would be other people
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  following suit there yeah people who like avidly follow King Buffett King Buffett they will then
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  replicate this move right well and also that is a lot of shares to sell for people to buy so it's
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  like you've got say you've got a hundred buyers lined up to buy Apple shares then in continuing
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  continuing to increase the price because they're like I'm going to pay higher than you and higher
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  than you and you you get a massive seller coming it wipes out all those people that were wanting to buy
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  so it puts like down with pressure on a yeah on a product all of a sudden everyone's got it yeah
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  so now these are way less so yes you need a whole wave of new sellers to come and to buy those
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  years like that's a big seller that's a big amount that Warren Buffett is selling so if he's sold that
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  now and the share price has dipped because of that now would be a good time to buy if you're planning
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  on holding it for a really long time because it's probably lower than it will be wise one of the
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  best investors in the world selling Apple or selling a whole lot of companies and sitting on
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  300 billion dollars of cash that would be the more what else is he sold he had a big stake in
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  Bank of America he's still got American Express and Coca-Cola those are his two big holdings
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  but also he's like he when he buys he buys you know he can't really fly to the radar
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  I am earth as he holding so much Coca-Cola I'm really judging him for that I knew it was why
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  nobody holds so much Coca-Cola why are you judging him for that what a shushy thing to be
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  investing it was he's done well out of it yes but we're not just looking for a turn it's like
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  that shit has given imagine how many fillings Coca-Cola is what a why why not American Express
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  American Express isn't probably giving people diabetes but it's putting people in debt
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  it's a good point I love like I don't mean to the moral talent honestly every company has a
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  moral element that's why I'm off investing in general yeah but while you're off investing you're
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  not going to pull it out right you're just going to I'm just I'm giving myself a minute to
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  recalibrate that's happening your friends with different values different ethics and mind not
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  about the same as Danny's Danny might not be the same as yours but that's okay I guess another
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  example of that and I feel like this whole episode has been on kind of investing in ethics and
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  values but it's good because it's it's it's a debate and it needs to be had and another one is
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  Amazon so Amazon had a really great result it's done it's up 50% this year yet it has increased
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  its CO2 emissions I was gonna say yeah that's exactly why I don't invest in Amazon transport is
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  represents 30% of global emissions so and Amazon's one of the biggest players in transportation
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  and logistics so and that's because order 30 seconds later it's shown up at your door so we're
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  all part of the problem can you speak to why ethically you decided not to invest in Amazon I'm
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  well I guess by proxy I kind of am because I'm invested in the S&P 500 so there will be a percentage
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  of Amazon in my in my fund but it was during covid when everything just started appearing two hours
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  later an hour later and I just watched this mass consumption obviously it had happened before but
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  it was it was quite stark because there was no one on streets all you could see was delivery guys
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  right and it was just hearing neighbours every every day packages packages packages that we didn't
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  need we just were bored and then seeing all of the waste build up and all of the instant
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  gratification that just dialed up during covid something felt really off to me and then you know
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  Jeff Bezos massively profiting from one of the worst things to happen was too much for me
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  were on the delivery van's thing yeah that increased nearly 200 percent from 2019 to 2023
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  and there were elements of that which great there were people were still able to work there were
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  people able to sort of still have an income feed their families through that through that system
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  during covid but all it did was allow him to double down on that and he hasn't passed any of
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  that onto the workers they haven't had wage increases based on that and they've come out Amazon's
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  come out and said well we're going to invest in 120 000 electric vehicles but that's only about
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  less than 30 percent of their fleet and that's going to reduce carbon emissions by about 1 percent
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  but then from that that argument is that we can't produce enough enough electric vehicles to cater
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  for them to switch over their entire fleet so therefore we need to invest in Tesla and therefore
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  we need to support people like Elon Musk and it's exhausting it's just not good enough
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  they've got too much money to not be doing better yeah there's just no excuses in my opinion like
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  1 percent yeah what is that yeah if they really want to change their amount of emissions that
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  they're producing and they they have enough money to pay for it you know it's what they buy another
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  300 000 electric vehicles there's not that many they can't produce that many electric vehicles
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  they go to the other brands not just Tesla but they can't Tesla's the biggest producer
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  they should have with production they should invest or give money to the electric vehicle companies
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  so they can produce enough they've got the funds to make it happen something tells me Jeff Bezos
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  isn't really in the market for helping other brands yeah help people prosper should we move on
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  from this because I know that even before we started recording all of us had a little chat about how
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  the collective energy and morale is reasonably low right yeah and what we've done is probably not
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  help that so yeah are there other headlines or things that we can talk about that yeah they don't
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  have to be positive but just can we just move on from oil and gas the base officers of the world
• 25:31
  Burberry is a company that hasn't actually done well for a very long time it's one of the only luxury
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  names it hasn't really done that well and it it's share price jumped last week because there
• 25:40
  is rumors that Montclair is going to buy a Burberry not held these rooms get out that's my most
• 25:46
  burning question yeah it's definitely an organized lunch surely what's that movie 13 going on
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  13 oh yeah I love that film and she's like she's secretly leaking uh to turn to the computer
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  to magazine oh my god but there'll be CFOs there or like CEOs there they're like I love that
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  yeah I think it's just so grateful that you use your reference I know brings a bit joy to my
• 26:10
  amount uh exciting though I mean Burberry's share prices have been down about 50% this year this is
• 26:15
  a really good example of companies become targets when their share price doesn't do very well
• 26:19
  it's not only in any city for your share price to continue to do well so that investors are happy
• 26:23
  it's so that you're not prey but you're not target what do you mean I mean like when your share
• 26:28
  prices on it's knees no so if loves that technology it's just so masculine it's don't you
• 26:34
  hate it like there's on it's knees I'm like oh okay let's use another one I've got it didn't even
• 26:39
  think no okay so it's so let's imagine that Burberry is a little piece of bait floating around in
• 26:47
  the ocean Montclair is a giant shark it's about to come and eat it it's the idea that it could
• 26:52
  be swallowed up by another big yeah it's like one real company kind of lost its way it doesn't
• 26:57
  really know what it's doing it's share prices down then you get this big company that's done really
• 27:01
  well got a lot of cash and it's like you know what we're gonna pounce yeah and so that's currently
• 27:08
  potentially having a bear break yeah so this is why companies need to keep increasing their share
• 27:13
  price because otherwise you even know who's gonna come out of the woodwork and shareholders will
• 27:17
  be unhappy with the terrible share price performance and they'll be going yeah yeah we'll sell to
• 27:21
  Montclair and it's totally outside of the management and boards control oh the ideas that Burberry
• 27:28
  might not want to sell they might not want to be but all investors are like we're sick of
• 27:32
  your terrible performance so we're gonna take this offer okay we need to end on a positive note
• 27:37
  has anyone got anything we know we've been talking about it a lot in the office the last
• 27:41
  couple of days and I think it's just a nice message to send people that regardless of what's
• 27:46
  going on right now the key thing that we can always do to empower ourselves is learn and educate
• 27:53
  so that we can understand what's going on in the market so that we can make informed decisions
• 27:58
  and ultimately this is an example of so many things get taken away from us but one of the only
• 28:04
  things that they can't take away at any point is knowledge so it's if anything just inspired me
• 28:10
  to up my game and only in the darkness can you see the stars that is a beautiful quote
• 28:15
  oh i can see everyone's eyes tearing up god it's so emotional isn't it a nice way to finish is
• 28:21
  to say i've never felt more comfortable in a shit time in the in the world than working with you
• 28:27
  guys so it's all about people you surround yourself with right and the energy that you absorbed
• 28:32
  through strong women so thank you oh thank you Danny thanks for being in the curve weekly okay
• 28:38
  sending love to everyone who's having a shitter of a time and yeah yeah if you want to send a
• 28:44
  message of like support or love or frustration we've um we've got our curve hotline which you can
• 28:50
  send a voice note to i thought it could be kind of nice to open that up for anyone that maybe
• 28:54
  feels like they don't have people to either vent to or share anything that you want to so that's
• 28:59
  open for um we'll put that in the link of the show notes thank you so much for listening to
• 29:04
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  see you next Tuesday
• 29:31
  well see you next Tuesday I mean Monday no actually though new episodes out every Tuesday
• 29:42
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