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The Favorites - NFL Combine + Draft Betting Update · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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  Speaker 1: It's the favorite podcast presented by FanDuel. The NBA season
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• 1:42
  Speaker 1: Well us party, Here we go three two one. Welcome
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, Mike and Padre, my brother living
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: on the West Coast right now, living his best life.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: He's got a fresh haircut, he's looking clean like he
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: just dug six, dug out from six months of dirt
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: professional better Simon Hunter, Hello Swiman. Yeah, I am on
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: hotel WiFi, so people have to bear with me if
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: I'm a little choppy. Shockabra, dude, shocka Bra. It's my
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: West Coast buddy. Say you know they hang ten they Shockabra.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Know what I'm saying. Oh, I know about her brother.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: It's a good time, Like Cali. Everyone. There's people in
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: California that are still dressing like Sublime is still a
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: band that still plays locally. It's great. Dudes are just
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: locked in. They got the little soul patch. I mean,
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: they got the high tube socks. I just love Cali,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: the vibe. There's just there's just some characters out here
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: and everyone's got a story. But yeah, it's a It
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: was a good trip across the country, but a lot
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: of snow. Brother Like, I drove through two blizzards. It
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: was pretty insane down here in the Southwest, but made
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: it to San Diego. The only thing that matters is
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: when you were driving through the blizzards, did you keep
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: the top of the BMW convertible down? I did. I did.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: Just you have to drive so fast the snow is
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: gonna land inside. So that's my secret. How I drive
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: with the top down. I will tell you. My wife
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: and I and I want to get to our guest
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: and the most important part of the Today's show. My
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: wife and I were in Philadelphia this past weekend, the
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: fighting city of Philadelphia, visiting our kid at Trexel, and
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: we met some friends down there. Saturday afternoon. It was
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: about twenty degrees outside, really cold, and we were going
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: to the Philadelphia Museum of Art. We were walking up
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: to the steps and in the street, going around the
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: museum there was a dude in a Volkswagen convertible top
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: all the way down Springsteen at full blast. You would
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: have thought it was eighty five and he was on
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: the Jersey shore. Yeah no, that's just like I was joking.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: By the way, people, I didn't have my top down
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: during a blizzard. But yeah, I think it's what one
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: of those Finally, one of those storms came through on
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: snow to the northeast. So I think you guys got
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: the same snow I drove through. Chat right, dude, I
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: got a snow day going on right now. There you go,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: snow day. Right now. It's about six inches of snow
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: outside of my window. Listen, we have a very important
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: show because one of the most important things we do
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: here in the off season is cover the Draft. Betting
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: on the Draft has gotten bigger and bigger every year.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Anyone who listens to this show cannot forget a few
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: years ago the Trey Lance mac Jones drama. Everyone was
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: saying Mac Jones. Adam Schefter is out there saying mac
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: Jones to the Niners. Simon Hunter the entire time was like,
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: I got sources, it's not going to be mac Jones.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: You ended up betting significant like six figures on Trey
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Lance to go to mac Jones, not go top three,
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: I believe was the bet. And in the final forty
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: eight hours the market started to flip and it all
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: started going your way and ended up mac Jones when
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: fifteen you want a crapload of money. I got a
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: call from one particular state's Division of Enforcement trying to
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: grill me on your sources, and I'm like, dudes, listen
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: to me. We're reporting just like anybody else. Schefter had
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: his sources. They were wrong. We had our sources, they
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: were right. Don't come after me. That's the game or
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: playing now. Anyways. We love betting on the Draft and
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: today's guests. Former Action Network colleague, one of my favorite
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: nemesis in the world now the director of content for
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros for Betting Pros, he does amazing work. We
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: tylerate him. Matthew Freedman, my man, Chad, thanks for that introduction.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: Talk about no having no outline. I can tell there's
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: no outline for the show. I mean five minutes of
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: banter up at the top. Simon, Don't tell Sean Kerner.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: I think that's his last night. Don't tell him. That
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Sublie still isn't a band, Chad. I don't remember what
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: phrases you were throwing around at the top of the show,
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: but I don't know if you could sound any older.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: By the way, happy birthday and then Simon Hotel Internet,
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: I'm doing with middle of nowhere Texas Internet, so I
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: think I might have you beat for that. I'm so
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: old now, Freedman, thank you for the birthday wishes. I
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: can't even remember what I said, but do you know
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: what I do remember? I remember how much I love
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: the game Time App. How's that for a segue? You
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  Speaker 1: guys have heard us talk about the game Time app
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  Speaker 1: in the past couple of weeks. It's the fastest growing
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• 8:00
  Speaker 1: We're betting. You've already made some very interesting top of
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: the board bets. Give it to me right now. The
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: combine is going on this week. Tell me what you've
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: already bet before we even start getting combined bus. Yeah,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: so you can bet on the combine. That's a separate
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: thing talking about just the draft. You know, I know
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: that Simon is already on. Anthony Richardson, I believe to
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: go number one overall. Got that at a great number
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: of timing. Did you get that at one hundred to one?
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: Was that where you bet it? Yeah? I got a
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: bunch of different numbers. But like we always talked about
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: the books limits, So the biggest bat to get down
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: it was two fifty at a book I can't name
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: because we're not sponsored by them, but yeah, I think
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: you're about the touch on it. It's like one of
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: these things where you're just betting these now just to
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: get the value for later on, right. I feel like
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: that's you have to dive into. Yeah, and so even
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: at ten to one at FanDuel, I think that that's
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: a book that we can mention here. Ten to one
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: at FanDuel, that is still the best number that is
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: in the market for Anthony Richardson. And I think that
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: there's still some value there. You know, he's five to one,
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: seven to one across the market, so there's some line
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: shopping value there. And I gotta say each of these
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: four quarterbacks at the top of the board has a
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: significant flaw. You look at Bryce Young and he would
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: be hands down the smallest quarterback that we've ever seen
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: taken this high in the NFL draft. CJ. Strout, he's
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: getting some of the justin Fields, Ohio state based treatments.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: Will levis incredibly raw. And then you look at Anthony Richardson,
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: really raw, but he's got all of the talent, Like
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: he's got the arm strength, he's got the size, he's
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: got that mobility. Out of these quarterbacks, he's the one
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: who looks the most like Josh Allen and he's going
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: to be participating fully at the combine, and so he's
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: going to have kind of two bites of the apple. Right.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: Bryce Young isn't going to be participating at the combine.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: If Anthony Richardson goes out there and looks awesome, then
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: he can rest with his pro day, not do anything,
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: and he can say, hey, I did it with receivers
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: I don't even know. Or if he doesn't look that great,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: it's fine, he can say I didn't know these receivers.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: What counts is my pro day. So Anthony Richardson at
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: ten to one, he's the furthest down to board. I
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: think it's I mean, he's not likely to be the
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: number one pick, but I think there's still some value
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: there and it is much more of a toss up
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: between these four guys than I think the mock draft
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: mix would probably consider it to be accurate. This is
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: what's so interesting to me about the draft versus betting
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: on the draft. And we had a similar conversation a
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: couple of years ago around Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: and Zach Wilson. It makes no sense to me that
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson is in this conversation. It just doesn't like
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: the experts become enamored with potential, they become enamored with
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: raw talent. The NFL is not where you go to
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: learn to play quarterback. Okay, it's just too freaking hard.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: And we can talk about Josh Allen. Josh Allen is
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: an outlier, Okay, number one, number two. Josh Allen got
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: good when he finally got a great receiver in Stefan Diggs.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: If the Bills are not smart enough to trade for
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: Stefan Diggs, Josh Allen is not a guy we're talking
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: about as a paradigm for whatever we think Anthony Richardson
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: can be, he will be the guy everyone talks about
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: every single year. Oh, he's a Josh Allen type. If
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: you're not taking CJ. Stroud in this draft as the
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: number one pick, then you're not paying attention to history.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: You're not paying attention to precedent. It's the same reason
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: why we were saying you take Trevor Lawrence, you take
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: justin fields. He performed on the field at an elite
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: level in big spots we have a lot of film.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: We know what his flaws are, we know what his
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: strengths are. We put him in the right system with
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: the right talent, the guy succeeds. End of the conversation.
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: So this is why I gave out Anthony Richardson though,
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: is because all these guys have flaws. Like I could
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: literally pick apart each one of these guys. I mean
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: to me, I just wouldn't already talked about Braystring. I
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: just wouldn't touch him because of his body type. Like
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: you just saw Twa basically almost die. Like this kid
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: couldn't last the season, basically the same body type you
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: see smaller guys where yes I get the Russell Wilson
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Drew Brees comparisons, But if you think Josh owns a unicorn,
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: so are those guys. So that's why it's like Bryce Young,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: I don't really believe in it, Like I love the
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: kids talent, but I'm looking for all these teams, Like
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: this is my pitch. The team I'm consulting for is
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: you're looking for the unicorn. You're not looking for a
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins. Like Kirk Cousins gets you nothing. You have
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: to pay the guy, he's not winning any games, and
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: you guys are gonna go out there and be unicorns
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: like an win you games. So the Anthony Richardson thing
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: is just the bodies there, the arms there, if you
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: can get his mind right and coach him up. I mean,
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: I think the kids twenty like that. To me, that's
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: why you take him at one where it's like, I
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: get the CJ shrouds thing. What you're saying, like that
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Georgia game was incredible. Chat his other games, brother, they're
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: not that great. Like you put on some of his
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: tape against the Big ten competition. He should been lighting
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: those kids up, and he wasn't doing exactly what he
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: should have been doing. Like Justin Fields that year he
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: came out his tape was way better than CJ. So
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: that's again, that's another thing we talked about at the
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: time where I don't want to say that race played
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: a factor in the Justin Fields thing, but how the
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: hell did Zach Wilson go to and Justin and Justin
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Fields with a fourth quarterback take? And it will never
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: make sense to me, But it's again, I think these
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: teams build that stuff into it. So the will the
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: will Leavis thing is Levis thing is interesting where the
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: kid couldn't last the season, his body broke down in
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: college football. Now we got mel Kiper and other people
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: I got pitching him to be their first quarterback. Take
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: and it's just like I don't really trust that, Like
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: a kid couldn't last in college football. The number one
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: thing an NFL is availability. Like Eli Manning. We can
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: talk all this ship we wonted hout good. Eli Manning was.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: He was available. That's what made him so important. Brett Fahr,
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: we can talk about all his interceptions. The man was available.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: So there's certain guys where if they can't last in
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: college I just wouldn't touch him. And that's my biggest
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: issue with a couple of these guys. Where Bryce Young.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: I love his tape the kids incredibly, he's arguably the
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: best player in this draft. I just couldn't do it.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: The kid's body's not built for this league and he
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: can take all the weight gainer he wants and goes
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: to this combine and ways it at two ten. I
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: feel like Freeman nail on the head. If Anthony Richardson
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: goes to this combine and lights it up and he's
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: got the speed in the forty, he's got the arm
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: and just again, they're just gonna wearing an underwear chad.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: You've seen it. They're no pads, no one's touched him.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: If Anthony's throwing the ball downfield off one foot like
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Zach Wilson did, and by guys just fall in love
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: with him, I could see him being the number one pick.
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: So if you didn't get it at forty to one,
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: I'm with Matt. I'd still grab Anthony chard ten to one.
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: But any one of these quarterbacks could be the first
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: pick because all these guys have such falls. One more
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: thought here, or a couple more thoughts are on the
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: quarterback conversation. Quarterback is such a trade specific position where
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: you know, even if a guy doesn't fit, even if
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: he's not perfect, if he fits within a particular offense,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: a scheme, like specific traits. Maybe he's a good runner
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: and a team wants to focus more on the run,
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: they might lean more towards that guy than towards another
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: quarterback who might be a better overall prospect, but who
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: in terms of how this evaluator looks at him, doesn't
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: fit the system. And so you know, I think that's
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: another reason why you could see almost any of these
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: guys go number one or be the first quarterback selected,
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: because a team is going to be selecting these guys
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: more for their offense or for a particular trait than
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: like the overall grade that they might place on a guy.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: One thing that I think Anthony Richardson has is that
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: he does have the running capability. And we saw with
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen early in his career. We saw it with
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts early in his career. If a guy has
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: that capability, that gives him an extended runway to be
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: able to develop as a passer. If a guy can't run,
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: he has to be a really good passer right away,
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: so he doesn't have quite as long of a development period.
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: One thing with will Leavis is that he is in
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: a pro style offense, so at least like evaluators can say,
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: all right, we've seen him theoretically do it in something
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: that can kind of translate to the NFL. And then
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: I think Simon was right. Like Young, he's got a
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: different body type than Wilson and Kyler, Like those guys
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: are at least muscular, you know, like they're built like
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: second baseman. Young isn't built like that at all. He's
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: built like a seventh grade outfielder, you know. So I
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: just I don't see him even being able to put
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: on the weight, and even if he does, he's not
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: gonna be playing it that way. I love the way
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: you describe him as a second baseman like Kyler and
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: those guys. That's really app description and also an app
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: description of Bryce Young. It's actually get despite all his talent,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: It's still amazing to me that people would consider someone
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: who's potentially that fragile at the top of the board.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: Right now, Kuiper just did a new mock draft. He's
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: got the Textans trading up to number one overall and
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: taking Bryce Young, and he's got the Colts trading up
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: to number two overall and taking c. J. Strout, which
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: is interesting, Freedman, the whole Mitchell, we gotta get Jordan
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: Palmer back on the podcast before the draft, because obviously
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: he's done such a good job with quarterback coaching and
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: quarterback analysis, and this is a great year to talk
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: about quarterbacks and analysis and the idiocy in trying to
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: scout and predict quarterback success. Because I'm not buying Anthony
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: Richardson just not buying it, not buying it at all.
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: Your Bears fan, Chad, you've never seen a good quarterback
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: in your life. Well, the problem is I have seen
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: good quarterbacks. They just always beat the Bears. That's true,
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: that's true. I've had a generation of Brett five and
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. We got two rings combined though, and don't
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: forget I had all those Scott Mitchell years, which was amazing. Freeman,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: give me some guys right now, who you think with
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: the combine going on, we should be, you know, putting
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: a couple of Ducats on because they could come out
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: of the combine with much higher grades. And it could
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: be anything. It could be guys who will make it
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: three overall receivers taken in the first round. It could
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: be a defensive back who's going to fly high, you know,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: over under, top ten, whatever. Give me some guys you're
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: thinking about from the combine. So you mentioned defensive back there,
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: and the guy who stands out to me is Christian Gonzalez.
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: And right now at fan Duel, you can get sixty
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: to one odds for him to be the number one
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: defender taken. Now, I'll just say it's not likely it happened,
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: like that's implied in the sixty to one odds. It
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: is probably not going to happen, but there isn't a
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: market yet for number one cornerback selected, and so this
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: is a way of kind of trying to get ahead
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: of the skyrocketing that we could see in his draft
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: stock if he does really well at the combine. Christen Gonzalez,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: he was nobody a year ago, Like no one was
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: thinking about him as the top cornerback in this class,
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: you know when the season started. But he had a
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: fantastic twenty twenty two campaign and you look at all
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: of the other things and he checks the boxes. He
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: was a four star recruit. He's going to be super young,
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: twenty one years old as a rookie. He had a
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: great breakout campaign this past year. And he's got size.
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: He's six one over two hundred pounds, so he can
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: play with those big bodied NFL wide receivers. And the
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: thing is like he could be a fantastic athlete, like
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: you see it on the tape, you see it in
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: what he did as a recruit when he was entering college,
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: and I mean people are expecting him to be around
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: the four three range in his forty time, which is
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: absolutely ridiculous for a guy of that size. If I
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: had to bet on that, I would take the over.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's going to be exactly that low,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: but he can still be four three five. And if
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: a guy that big is running four three fives and
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: we're already projecting him to be, you know, maybe off
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: the board at number six, it's not all that outrageous
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: to think that if a whole bunch of quarterbacks go
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: up at the top of the draft, then some of
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: these defenders fall down the board and a team likes him.
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: Think of Jeff Acuta going number three to the Lions
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: a few years ago. It wouldn't be unreasonable to think
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: that somehow Christen Gonzalez starts getting Jalen Ramsey hype, Patrick
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: certan type of hype and ends up being the number
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: one defender taken. If he has an awesome combine, and
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: I think he has a real chance of doing that, well,
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: that would imply then that Will Anderson or Jalen Carter
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: are not going to be the first player taken. Simon,
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: do you see any value in betting Will Anderson or
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: Jalen Carter number one overall, No, because I mean, we
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: can even I would love your review on it chat
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: just because I would like to get a monthly updating
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: review on this number one pick with the Bears because
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: it is so crazy to me as a fan, I'd
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: be going crazy, like I wouldn't there Gar is enough
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: podcast for me to listen to. When you have the
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: number one pick, could you just your heads all over
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: the place where it's like, this is life changing time
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: right now? You either get five draft picks, you could
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: stay there and just I mean again, a lot of
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: really smart people chat think you guys should take the
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: quarterback you reas the contract and move off fields. So
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be really crazy here what the Bears actually do?
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Where are you gonna support fields and move the picks
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: or you just canna stay put because to me, if
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: you don't, yeah, I'd take the D Tack whatever. If
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: you guys trade the fourth or whoever you get the
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: Colts pick or you get Houston's pick, you take the
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: D Tack or D Lineman there. But I want to
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: hear from your point of view, are you still trade
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: the pick hold on the fields? Are you are you
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: leaning towards any of these quarterbacks. I'm leaning towards trade
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: the pick hold on the Fields because I'm not a
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: fan of Bryce Young. I think he's too small. If
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: I want to get C J. Shroud, why wouldn't I
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: keep Justin Fields, who I've seen develop and has you know,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: he's two years ahead. I'm not a buyer on Anthony Richardson.
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: I don't want to go develop someone. I'm not a
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: buyer on Will Levis, to be honest, I feel like
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: beautiful talent, not enough production. I know it was injured
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: a lot this year, but we've seen quarterbacks who come
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: out of these pro systems and get a lot of
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: hype and then don't develop into what we think they
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: can and we fall in love with their arm mel
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: kiper right now, I just mentioned he's got the Bears
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: trading down number one to the Houston Texans and then
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: trading down number two to the Colts and moving down
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: to four, and and what's that I would? I mean,
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: that would be the dream scenario and just keep the
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: Actually the most interesting take I've heard so far. Credit
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: to our volume colleague Kylin Cowherd. Trade Justin Fields to
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: the Atlanta Falcons, get the eighth overall pick. Get Drake
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: London and Kyle Pitts. Then what's that there? There'd be
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: no way they do that. Then trade the number one
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: overall pick down to three or four whatever, get Will
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: Anderson or Jalen Carter. Then take a package of picks,
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: trade it to the Ravens, get Lamar Jackson. That'd be
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: a pretty insane No. I like the first part of that.
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: I like the idea. It's galaxy brain. But trading Justin Philips,
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: trading the one on one, and then I think that
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: puts you in perfect position for the one oh one
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: next year, where it is a much better quarterback lass.
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: I think, don't say that, don't say that free, don't
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: be that guy. No, but it is. It is a
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: better quarterback class. If you trade Fields eight, you trade
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: the one on one, you're putting your team in a
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: much better position to get the one on one next
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: year when it's a better quarterback lass. And when that
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: guy enters, he will have a much better situation around
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: him than Justin Fields had a couple of years ago
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: or even this year. Here's one thing I will say,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: the idea of the Bears being competent enough, we'll use
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: that word competent to move down from number one to
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: number two, and then again to move from two to four.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: You're putting a lot of faith in a team that
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: just traded the number thirty two overall pick for a
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: wide receiver that they really didn't even use. Like, I
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: don't think that they actually have the ability to maneuver
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: like that through the draft. If they do, I will
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: be impressed, But like, we shouldn't have any faith in
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: their ability to do that. Two things. One bear down
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: to new era Chicago, where the monsters of the Midway
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: not the mistakes by the lake. Okay, that's how that's
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: going to roll number two one oh one? Is this
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: like new geek terminology for for for like, first overall,
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: what do you bring it to the table here? Freeman? Yes,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: that is the new geek terminology. But this is common
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: for people who actually talk about the draft, because each
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: round has its own So you would say two point
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: zero one to differ from two twelve, right, so round
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: two pick twelve. This is a common thing, Chad, Yeah,
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: common thing amongst the geek class. Sure you mentioned that
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: you should just get mel kiper Okay, remember these insults.
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: Remember we had melk Kiper round a couple of years ago.
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: You could barely keep it together. You were in like
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: mel Kiper referred to your name, and it's almost like
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: I thought you were going to like just crumble into
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: a dust pan because you were so overwhelmed with mel
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: Kiper referencing you on a first name basis and acknowledging
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: your work in the draft. Yes, a highlight moment for me.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't say crumble into dust I would say melt
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: away into the ether. That's the way I would phrase it.
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: You and I have always differed on how we see things.
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  Speaker 1: have studied Christian Gonzales and you looked at his tape
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: before he went to Oregon. Explain that to me, Well,
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: I haven't. I didn't look at his tape. I looked
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: at his numbers. Okay. You can see the numbers, the
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: testing numbers for a lot of these guys when they
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: were recruits, so you can see how fast they were
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: in forties. Back in the day. There are agility drills,
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: everything like that. So for a number of these guys,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: we already have a pretty good sense of the range
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: of athleticism they have. Now, every once in a while
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: you get someone like Justin Jefferson who just absolutely destroys
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: the expectations. Justin Jefferson, despite being a four star recruit,
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: had some of the worst athleticism I have ever seen
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: from any like highly ranked, highly recruited wide receiver. The
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: guy was one hundred and eighty pounds entering LSU and
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: ran a four point eight eight second forty time, Like
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: that is unbelievably bad. And then think of the amount
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: of training and discipline that he had to put into
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: developing his body so that three years after entering LSU
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: he goes to the combine and he's put on twenty
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: pounds of muscle and shaved off like not like half
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: a second from his forty time, but getting it down
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: to like a four to four. I mean that is
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: that is some serious physical training that he did in
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: three years. But I mean so like, but he's the outlier.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: Like we have a general range of Like if a
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: guy ran a four point four when he was a recruit,
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: maybe he can do a four point three three years
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: later when he's at the combine. So we have a
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: general sense already of where these guys stack up athletically.
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: All right, give me some other bets, Simon that you're
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: thinking about. Are you thinking about wide receiver? Are you
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: thinking about overall defensive player? Taken in the Christian Gonzalez,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: Will Anderson, Jalen Carter range. What are you starting to
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: look at right now? What did you think about on
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: your cross country trip. I'll let Matt Freeman dive into
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: it here because I think we're on the same page.
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: There's a receiver drive in Iron up for the first
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: she were drafted. I feel like he really nailed them
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: the head in our notes here about why he likes them.
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: And I'm on the same page where last year watching
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: college football, this guy really jumped out to me. So
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: I mentioned here Freeman's takeaway he moved him up his
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: board to be the first wide receiver d he didn't
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: name him. Are you are you holding back on the
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: reveal for Freedman to get it or did you want
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: me to name him? Yeah? I want Freeman to say it. Okay,
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: I'm hoping this is Jaln Hyatt or to be leading
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: in the wrong direction. Yeah, Jalen Hyatt. I mean he
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: was fantastic last year at Tennessee, kind of coming from
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: nowhere Central Tillman entering the year looked like the number
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: one wide receiver. He suffered an injury and then all
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, hyaha just explodes. And you look at
• 31:16
  Speaker 1: the wide receivers in this class and there's not a
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: guy who is going to go in the top ten, right,
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: There's not like that kind of marque wide receiver. And
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: so I think it's a little bit of a toss
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: up for who goes number one. But Jalen Hyatt, like,
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: you can't teach speed, and he is probably the fastest
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: of these wide receivers. And we have seen over the
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: past five six years wide receivers who tear up the combine,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: they shoot up the draft board in a number of
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: these guys end up going in the top half of
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: the first round, and it feels like Jalen Hyatt has
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: a real chance to do that. People are projecting in
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: the four point three, maybe even four point two, like
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: four point two five to four point two eight kind
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: of range for Jalen Hyatt. That feels a little bit aggressive.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: But if he's in the four threes, I mean, game on, Like,
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: he's got a very real chance to go as the
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: number one wide receiver. He's available at plus six fifty
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: at fan duel I think there's value there for him,
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: and I will say, like the combine matters a lot
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: for him. If he's fast, if he's in the four threes,
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: then I think he could be a fantastic NFL receiver.
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: If he's in the four fours, then he's like Paul Richardson,
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: who was like a fantastic college player, but no one
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: remembers him, like got drafted on Day two. That's kind
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: of what's at stake for Jalen High right here. If
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: he's fast, he could be the first wide receiver drafted.
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: If he's in the four fours, he could be drafted
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: at the end of the second round. And to me,
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: that's why you make the bet. Now though it's where
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: he's another guy where combin is gonna be huge for him.
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: If he goes out and he does run that four two,
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: I can easily see him go steaming up the draft
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: board because on tape the kids incredibly he's high. He
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: high points the ball, which you talked almost any scout.
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: That's one of the biggest things I look for kids
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: coming out of college, kids who actually attack the ball.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: He does that, so he has the speed. I love
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: those kids chat especially. I think must people if they
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: watched Tennessee last year, they kind of came out of nowhere.
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: He was a big part of that. I mean, this
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: kid was uncoverable in a lot of those games. So
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: the fact that you can get him now at plus
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: over six hundred a fandel I would just take the
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: value before the combine, because I do think if he
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: can run in the combine, which we talk all the time,
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: these guys will last two to three months, all they've
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: been doing is training for this combine. So all he's
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: been doing is working with a track coach to get
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: his speed up. So to me, the value is there
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: when you bet on these kind of you know, there's
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: a bunch of guys all in the same spot of
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: these positions coming in the combine. You bet the value
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: of the guys who have the tape, and you just
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: need to see them do it in the combine. So
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: to me, he's one of those guys. He has the tape.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Can you show up with the speed in the combine
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: not drop any balls in the passengers. It's a lot
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: to ask, but it's six fifty. That's good value. I know,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: will say go ahead for it is that it's not
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: certain that he is going to run at the combines,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: so I would wait to hear news on whether he's
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: running or not. If they say he's going to run,
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: then I would bet the six fifty. If he's not running,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: I would wait because his odds might drop a little bit,
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: as other wide receivers do run at the online All right,
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: I know Freeman's gotta get out of here. So the
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: last question I want to ask, believe it or not,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: specifically about the Chicago Bears. So let's say let's say
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: they are smart enough to make some moves and mel
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Kiper has already given them the blueprint to trade to
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: two and then trade to three. And let's say that
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: they have the option to draft Will Anderson from Alabama,
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: the edge rusher, or Jalen Carter, the defensive tackle from Georgia. Freeman,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: you first, who do you taken? Why? I take Will Anderson?
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: And I get that Jalen Carter might might be the
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: better prospect, but it is very close between them. And
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: I get that there's this theory that if you have
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: an Aaron Donald type of talents and he's able to
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: get pressure in the middle, that might mean more for
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: your overall defensive line. But I don't think you can
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: project a Jalen Carter to be Aaron Donald, Like no
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: one is Aaron Donald, but you can't project Will Anderson
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: to be a pretty good pass rusher. And a pretty
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: good pass rusher off of the edge does make a
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: significant difference to your team. So I would still go
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: with Will Anderson because even last year he was like
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: a near Heisman type of performer. We've had since a
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: strong sense for multiple seasons of who he is. Jalen
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: Carter is great, but I think in the end, edge
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: rusher means more to your team than defensive tackle Simon.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: I would say it's all about what the GM style is.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: It's the Carter is a safer play. You can know
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: exactly what he's gonna be in this league. He's an
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: eater of blocks. You'll always be double blocked. He's just
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: such a big body. He pans out, which he will
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: because he's just such a freak. I mean, you can
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: go back and watch him play high school running back chat.
• 35:48
  Speaker 1: This kid was an absolute freak and he put on
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: the weight just to be a d tackle a Georgia
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: So Anderson, you know, that's the hardest part where I
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: love his tape he played at Bama, and it's the
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: same thing with this kid at Georgia, where it's it's
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: like they're surrounded by studs and it's really hard making
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: a pick. But in your division, Chad, I guess I
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: would go with the d tackle just because I get
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: I know past rush is a big deal. It's just
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: your division don't really have any quarterbacks anymore. Like Kirk
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: Cousins and golf are the kind of two staples, and
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: your your your division. I feel like it's probably smarter
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: to just go to safe play. Where the Bears when
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: when was your best pass rusher? You guys drafted Chad drafted. Yes,
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: I feel like I went through your guy's list one
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: three years. Who Richard dent in nineteen eighty three. I
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: couldn't find one. I only looked back fifteen years. So
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: that's my fear with Chicago. They should have just played safe.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: Ms have just swung and miss. And this new regime
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: you hit on a couple really good picks last year
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: in the draft, this Bears group, so um, that's the hope,
• 36:56
  Speaker 1: all right, Listen, I was leaning towards will Anderson when
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Friedman was talking, and now I'm leading towards Jalen Carter
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: after Simon. I guess, I guess. My feeling on this
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: is there's something really exciting about a dominant pass rush
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: up the middle and having a dominant defender who can
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: help with the run. Oh my god, you know what.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: This is so hard. I can't believe I have to
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: make this decision for the entirety of Chicago. I will
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: have to decide what it's going to be next time.
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: We're gonna leave people in suspense because I just can't decide.
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: And I don't have to decide yet, Freeman, because I
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: don't have all the information yet. That's fair. Don't give
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: me that look you're looking at before you run, though,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: before you run, Freeman, give us your favorite long shot
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: we didn't talk about. I would say, Christian Gansall is
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: probably there aren't enough posted yet. There aren't enough lines
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: posted yet. But I will say if there is a
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: line posted at some point for like number three running
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: back selected them on a chain from from Texas, A
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: and M. If he tears up the combine like runs
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: in the four twos, I think he would be a
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: really intriguing guy who ends up going much much higher
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: than any you want expect all right, Matthew Friedman direct
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: your content for Fantasy Prose and Betting Prose. I don't
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: like him, but he brings good information and that's why
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: we have him come back on the podcast again and
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: again and again. Simon Hunter, thank you so much from
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: the West Coast. Matt Mitchell, producer extraordinaire. Great work. As always,
• 38:19
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