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Astros/Orioles MLB + WNBA + NFL Preseason Best Bets Thursday 8/21/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on OWN seven
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: It was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five.
• 0:15
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you above that
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: slump continuing.
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Two straight losses, not a good day at all. Own
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: four that have not had a good season. Man with
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: bookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: I've reached a new pink.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Actually, I'm gonna burn my Bruins hat. Man, I don't
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: know what is going on with the Bruins. March eight,
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Is that what it is? I don't even know it's
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: It's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man, I
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: don't know what data is anymore. But I don't even
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: know what data is anymore. Man, back with you after
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: the worst day that I could possibly have. I'm back
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die. At
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: Oh and five the worst month that I've ever had
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: The slump yesterdays, the slump discontinues, the slump continues.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What's up, everybody, it's towed back with you.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: Surprisingly for Thursday, August twenty first, definitely thinking about ending
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: at all.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, yesterday it looked like we were.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: On track to maybe hit all three bets yesterday and
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: we wound up going oh and three yesterday.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Is Atlanta only won one to nothing, so I guess
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: it pushed if you actually did.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: The uh minus one run line on that, but they
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: were winning the game, like just scoring other run. Guys
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: on the first five inning run line would have hit
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: on the half run So if people did that, that
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: would have been a winner. So that's bullshit. Kansas City
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: had the lead early in their game. They I think
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: had a three to one lead a couple innings into
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: the game, like, all right, this is going well. First
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: five inning play on Kansas City would have been a winner,
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: but we had full game and Texas tied the game up,
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: and then one with a three spot I believe in
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: the top of the ninth to win six to three.
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: Again bullshit, and Kansas City didn't score I think after
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: like the second or third inning they never scored again.
• 2:33
  Speaker 2: Just unbelievable leading the whole game. It kind of felt
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: like that. Texas lost to Toronto the other day, and
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: then Milwaukee also a loss, even though I believe they out.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Hit the Cubs.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: The Cubs wind up wound up scoring four runs on
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: four hits, and Milwaukee loses the game four to three,
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: and that was a close one as well. I don't
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: even feel like I miss handicapped really any of those
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: games yesterday. It's just completely ridiculous. Then you lose all
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: three and have a terrific zero to three day. Probably
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: gonna go end it all right now, Curtis, what's up man,
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: Thanks for hanging out. We have a short card today.
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Let's just get into it.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Man. I'm gonna give out a w.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: NBA play and one baseball play, and it's These are
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: both mostly situational plays and I don't even know if
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: I love them, but I'm gonna do it. I'm gonna
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: talk about NFL preseason briefly as well. I guess WNBA.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is getting super uninteresting with no dildos
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: being thrown. Washington at Connecticut. I will say I lean
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: to Washington in this game. You have to lay like
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: minus two to two and a half on the road
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: in this one, which I believe the line has moved
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: up a little bit. Yeah, from two and a half
• 3:42
  Speaker 2: to two and a half with juice. I think that's
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: the right side because this is a pretty simple quick
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: road revenge spot, as Connecticut just went into Washington and
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: beat them, and Connecticut is still the absolute.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Worst team in the league.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: And of course, they did have a player I forget
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: her name who intentionally injured Sophie Cunningham and basically ruined
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: in their season. Nobody's even really talking about it, which
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: is ridiculous. And it looks like Clark might not even
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: come back either from Indiana. But so I'm not a
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: fan of the Connecticut Sun right now, and they're probably
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: gonna move to Boston as well.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Just fuck this team, but they're coming back home.
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: Washington I think could still make the playoffs, especially knowing
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: that Indiana might be starting to fall apart here with
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: all these injuries. So I think Washington is going to
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: show up with motivation here and they're going out on
• 4:26
  Speaker 2: the road for this game after again losing by double
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: digits to Connecticut at home.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: It wasn't really a statistical.
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: Outlier of a game other than the fact that Washington
• 4:34
  Speaker 2: did lose the turnover battle at home, which I don't
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: think you're usually gonna see something like that. But I
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: lean to Washington in the quick zig zag. I'll skip
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Chicago New York because that's the game I'm actually gonna
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: have a playoff, which is insane. I considered Washington as
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: well as a play By the way, I do think
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: it's the second strongest on the board here, Minnesota at Atlanta.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: This is actually, I mean, as far as WNBA games go,
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: this is a pretty decent game. Minnesota up from one
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: to three, is a road favorite here. This is a
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: big match up. Both these teams have something to play for,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: and Lanta's were turning on from a road trip though
• 5:09
  Speaker 2: or they went to the Pacific time zone, so it's
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: not exactly the greatest spot for them, but they're.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Playing against the team that's leading the entire league, man, and.
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: They're fighting for the first play spot in the Eastern
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: Conference as well, so Atlanta does have something to play
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: for here, and obviously soda is Minnesota, although Minnesota did
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: already clinch a playoff spot, although they want to make
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: sure they hold on to the number one spot. But
• 5:32
  Speaker 2: maybe they have a little bit less to play for here,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: just because they have a pretty much a strangle hold
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: on that spot. And I think it's a little bit
• 5:39
  Speaker 2: of a worse spot for Minnesota because they've won six
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: games in a row, including three against the Liberty, and
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: then finally lost to the Liberty the last time out,
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: so the Liberty finally got some revenge the game after
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: I thought they were gonna get the revenge. They've actually
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: played the Liberty three games in a row, which is
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: a very very strange scheduling quirk here. Minnesota is staying
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: out on the East in the Eastern time zone here.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: But when you have a win streak and you lose
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: a win streak, especially in a big game like that,
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: I think it does have a tendency to hang you over.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: So I would lean to Atlanta in this game.
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: I think they do have a little bit more to
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: play for it, but they are turning on from a
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: road trip, so a little bit of a more difficult spot,
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: but I would probably lean to taking the points with
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: them and then Phoenix at Vegas. These two teams are
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: also in the playoff mix here for the Western Conference.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: Vegas really hot right now, winning the last seven games
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: in a row, I think, including just being in Atlanta.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: This is another big game.
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: But they did just go into Phoenix and beat Phoenix
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: not that long ago, so I think it's probably a
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: little bit of an extra motivational spot for Phoenix here,
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: and these teams are actually tied now in the standings too.
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: Phoenix they're on in the middle of a road trip
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: out on the Pacific coast here, not having to travel
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: too far with a little bit of momentum having won
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: those other two games. They beat Golden State last time,
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: which is actually a pretty big win because Golden State
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: is still in the mix for the playoffs, but they're
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: not really that good, so I think this is considered
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: to be a bigger game here, but I would lean
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: to Phoenix just because it is a little bit of
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: a quick revenge spot. Vegas down from two to one,
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: so the Lione seeds to be moving in that direction.
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: I know, I know what this looks like, like, why
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: am I playing a game with a spread like this?
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: But I'm gonna recommend that.
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: The Chicago Sky plus fifty or plus fifteen and.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: A half here. Man.
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: I know I usually don't like to get involved in
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: big spreads. I'm still winning in the WNBA overall, although
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: if I lose this one, it'll only be me being
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: ahead slightly in the WNBA.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: But I just think this is a terrible spot for
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: the Liberty. Man.
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: I know they want to continue, they want to maintain
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: having first place in the East. I understand that, but
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: they're coming off playing two games in a row against Minnesota.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: They played Vegas before that. Every game was close.
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: They did just return home from a road trip, and
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: sometimes that is a distraction spot, but of course it
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: was not because it was against Minnesota and they were
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: finally able to get that revenge beat the best team
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: in the league.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Huge win over Minnesota.
• 8:02
  Speaker 2: Now they have this awful injured Chicago Sky team coming
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: into their place.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: And who do they have up next?
• 8:08
  Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, they have to play Atlanta on Saturday. So
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: the big weekend game, which is one of the games
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: that's gonna decide first place in the East. That is
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: a huge game. I think this is a sandwich spot.
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: I think they could easily overlook Chicago here. They did
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: beat Chicago twice actually this year. They beat them on
• 8:26
  Speaker 2: the road by twenty five and beat them at home
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: by twenty nine. So I don't know that they're really
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: going to take Chicago seriously at all. I know Chicago
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: is an injured team to been without Vander Salute all season.
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: They're having a terrible season. I know they're playing really
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: bad basketball right now. But they're getting to start a
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: road trip here, and I think if anything's gonna focus you,
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: it's going to be playing the top team in your conference.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: So I think they're gonna show up here.
• 8:48
  Speaker 2: And the other thing I like about this is that
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: this is Angel Reese's second game back, So say what
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: you will.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: I know Angel Reese.
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: I don't like her, but I don't think she's that
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: good either, especially not as a score. She is a
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: good rebounder, though she is still one of the star
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: players on this team, and she was out for a while.
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: The team was struggling without her, and I always talk
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: about how the first game that that star player comes back,
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: they have to kind of get back into the mix.
• 9:12
  Speaker 2: And sometimes you can kind of throw off their chemistry.
• 9:15
  Speaker 2: They did lose the game to Seattle, but I mean
• 9:17
  Speaker 2: no shame in losing to Seattle by six points.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: I mean Seattle is a good team.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: But now that this is her second game back, I
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: think it's gonna be more like they have their chemistry back.
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: A lot of times they do a lot better the
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: second game that star players back.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: She's listed his game.
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: Time decision, but when I read the reports, it says
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: she was probable.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: So I think we're getting maybe too many points.
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: Here because of how badly Chicago has been playing, which
• 9:42
  Speaker 2: includes a lot of games without rees. So again, given that,
• 9:45
  Speaker 2: given the spot, I do think this line is a
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: bit too high here.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: So I will.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: Recommend to play on the Chicago Sky plus fifteen in
• 9:53
  Speaker 2: this game. I have no idea. Man, Caitlyn Clark, she
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: had this timetablehere. She was supposed to come back in
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: AWE and that's not happening. I think she's not coming back,
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: and Indiana might miss the playoffs at this point too,
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: even though they're in playoff position right now.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: It's very very sad. I mean, she's she and the
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: Doldo throwing are the only things that are keeping the
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: league afloat all.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: Right, we got Major League Baseball. It's a shorter Thursday
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: card here. We have some after noon games because it's
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: a good, you know, getaway day. It's the end of
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: some of these series, so teams are traveling. We have
• 10:28
  Speaker 2: the A's at Minnesota. The A's are actually, I believe,
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: on the verge of sweeping this series, so Minnesota might
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: show up with a little bit extra motivation because they
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: don't want to get swept.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: Of course, both these teams are out of it, so
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: they're kind of just playing playing out the stretch here.
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: Both teams have pretty bad bullpens, although I think the
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: A's bullpen is worse, although they've actually been better recently.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: But they also use five relief pitchers yesterday Minnesota also did,
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: so the bullpens are not really in good shape here.
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: So if you're gonna look at this game, I would
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: probably be looking to fade the bullpens in this one.
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: The have the better offense of these two teams. Jack
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: Perkins is pitching for the A's. I probably give him
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: a slight edge in the starting pitching matchup. He has
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: a four point two adra one point one to three whip.
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: He is better on the road, So once he gets
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: away from that Sacramento stadium that's very hitter friendly where
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: the A's play, he does a lot better.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: Two point eight r on the road.
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: He was a reliever for a lot of the season
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: though hasn't pitched that much this season really, but he
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: was a reliever and then he's joined the starting rotation
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: more recently. His last two starts have actually not been terrible.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: He's gone eleven innings combined, picked up a win in
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: both starts, give up three or runs in each of them,
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: had a twelve to four strike a walk ratio. So
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: he is pitching pretty well right now. And he's not
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: exactly facing any elite offense here in Minnesota, and Minnesota
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: has never seen him before, so he may have a
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: little bit of an extra edge there because they haven't
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: seen him before. But one thing I do worry about
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: is that he threw one hundred and three pitches in
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: his last outing against Anaheim, which is by far the
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: most pitches he's thrown in a in a game this season.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: They're ramping him up.
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: I mean, he'd gone sixty two and then eighty four,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: then one oh three, but when a guy who's not
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: used to throwing that many pitches does that and then
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: they have to pitch again, sometimes they don't do as
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: well the next time out, So I do worry about
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: Perkins for that reason. Minnesota as Jose Urinea starting, so
• 12:18
  Speaker 2: we basically have two converted relievers starting this game here,
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: which may not be that great of a thing. He's
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: got a four point zero six ERA one point four
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: to whip.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: That whip is definitely too high.
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: But he's been better at home this year two point
• 12:32
  Speaker 2: one sixty RA at home. But that includes being on
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: all these different teams. Man, he was on the Mets,
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: Toronto Dodgers, and now he's on Minnesota, so he's been
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: all over the place this year. He's actually been okay
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: with Minnesota. He finally went over five innings in his
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: last outing, shut out Detroit, which is a decent sign.
• 12:52
  Speaker 2: Went three innings against Kansas City to start before that,
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: but he did walk four guys, which is less of
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: a good sign. But he's been okay and that he
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: has a lot more than two earned runs, and any
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: of his outings with Minnesota so far didn't go really
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: deep into at least two of them, though, but he
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: has good numbers against the A's in his career as well.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: Thirty six at bats, they only have seven hits, one
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: extra RaSE hit a double from Butler seven to one
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: strikeout walk ratio one ninety four average allowed in four
• 13:19
  Speaker 2: thirty eight ops. So both these starting pitchers actually might
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: have a little bit of a matchup advantage here. I
• 13:28
  Speaker 2: would slightly lean to the A's because I do think
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: Perkins is a little bit more trustworthy, but again I
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: worry about his pitch count last time out. The A's
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: are taking the money, and again I don't know if
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: I would really necessarily want to fade Minnesota trying to
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: avoid a sweep peer, but A's up for minus one
• 13:43
  Speaker 2: ten to minus one thirteen, sixty four percent of ticket
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: seventy percent of the cash on him. It's kind of
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: crazy seeing the A's as a road favorite, but that
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: is the case. I mean, they're not really as bad
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: a team as their record makes them look. Man, and
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: they're much worse at home actually than they are on
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: the road because they really have no home advantage. Basically,
• 14:00
  Speaker 2: they have a home disadvantage. So money seems to be
• 14:03
  Speaker 2: coming in on the A's and on the over driving
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: the total up to nine and a half juice to
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: the over seventy one percent of tickets on the over
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: eighty seven percent of the cash on the over. I
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: could see the argument for the over, especially with the
• 14:14
  Speaker 2: bullpens not.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Being very good. The starting pitchers.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: I could see potentially the pitchers both doing okay though,
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: which would warry me a little bit as far as
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: the over is concerned. So I think I would probably
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: prefer the a's slightly in that game. But that's a
• 14:30
  Speaker 2: really tough game to figure out. Texas at Kansas City.
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: Kansas City lost their wind streak yesterday, man ending it
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: at five. They had won five games in a row
• 14:40
  Speaker 2: lost it yesterday. Both these bullpends are still pretty good.
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: Texas has actually been a little bit worse recently. Texas
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: had more bullpend usage yesterday as well because they had
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: a bullpen game yesterday, which again really really angers me.
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: That I lost that pick on Kansas City yes today,
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: going up with their best pitcher going up against a
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: bope end game and then they had the lead all
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: game and blew it.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: It really really angers me.
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: So Texas bullpen is probably in the slightly worst shape
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: here in the Kansas City's. Kansas City actually has the
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: slightly better offense, I would say, and I do think
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: Kansas City has the edge of the starting pitching matchup,
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: So it is tempting to give out a play in
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: Kansas City here.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: Man, I'm not gonna lie, but one of.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: My hesitations is that Kansas City the way that they
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: lost yesterday, the way that they blew it in dramatic
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: fashion like that, and a lot of times when you
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: lose a wind streak like that, sometimes it'll hang you
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: over into the next game. So that's one thing that
• 15:38
  Speaker 2: I do worry about with Kansas City and Kansas City.
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: Both these teams are fighting basically to stay alive in
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: the playoff hunt too, so they both have motivation.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Here. Patrick Korban is pitching for the Rangers.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: He is definitely a fadable pitcher, though his numbers are
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: starting to get worse again. Four point four to five ERA,
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: one point three to eight whip not great. He's worse
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: on the road point one seven road ERA. He's been
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: really really bad this month. In three outings, He's failed
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: to go more than four and a third in any
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: of these outings. Six to eight strike out walk ratio
• 16:10
  Speaker 2: on twelve point one ERA, just abysmal. I did fade
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: him in his last game with Toronto, which is an
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: easy winner for me on this show. He did face
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: good offense his Yankees Philly Toronto, so Kansas City is
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: a big time step down from that. But I don't
• 16:25
  Speaker 2: know that he's gonna pitch better here, man. I mean,
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: I mean, he'll probably pitch better than how poorly pitch
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: in his last game, but I don't know that it's
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: gonna be good necessarily. Kansas City actually has hit him
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: fairly well in the past. In eighty three at bats,
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: nineteen to four strike up walk ratio is good for Corbin,
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: but two eighty nine batting average allowed in eight twenty
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: eight ops not so much, so Kansas City has been
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: able to hit Corbin. Meanwhile, Michael Lorenzen pitching for Kansas City.
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: His season numbers aren't great four point four to three
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: ERA one point three whip. He's better at home though,
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: three point four e RA at home, so he has
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: the advantage of the splits here, and he had a
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: decent outing when he came back. He was injured after
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: he actually had a seven inning shutout at Arizona, which
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: is actually a pretty good start. He went on the
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: injured list, and then he came back about a month later.
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: He's made one appearance since then. He did have a
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: four inning shutout appearance against the White Sox. I know
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: it's the White Sox, a bad offense, so I don't
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: know how much you can really take away from that,
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: but he did well. Nonetheless, he did walk two guys,
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: which is a little bit of a concern. But he
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: may be back on track and maybe he's kind of
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: settling back into form here. His numbers are pretty good
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: against Texas in the past twenty five at bats, not
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: a huge sample size, but two forty average allowed six
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: to sixty five ops, although six to four strike a
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: walk rasue is not exactly terrific. But I think I
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: would have to lean to Lorenz inside and this one.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: The money seems to be disagreeing. Although you're gonna see
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: that I'm gonna be going against market reed with my
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: actual baseball play. I'm gonna give out and this is
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: close to being a play for me.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: Man. I do lean to Kansas City here.
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: Kansas City down for minus one twenty five to minus
• 18:02
  Speaker 2: one nineteen seventy seven percent of tickets only sixty seven
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash. So the market reid seems to
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: be on Texas here and it seems to be on
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: the under total sitting at nine sixty six percent of
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: tickets on the over sixty eight percent of the cash
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: on the under. I'm not sure that I would want
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: to get involved in an under here with a little bit.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Of bullpend usage here.
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: Although we doll have decent bullpens, both offenses are pretty terrible,
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: so that's definitely one thing that might factor into the under.
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: But I liked the under veteran. I believe it was
• 18:33
  Speaker 2: the first game of that series.
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee at the Cubs.
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: Of course, we lost this game yesterday on the show too.
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: Cubs are now won three in a row and they've
• 18:41
  Speaker 2: pulled back to within six of Milwaukee here in the
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: NL Central. This is a big series for both teams.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: The Cubs a lot of bullpen usage. This is the
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: reason why I went against them yesterday, man, because I
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: knew they were gonna have to use relievers for a
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: second day in a row, and they did, and they
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: still want them winning the game just you know, fuck me,
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: I guess I'm Milwaukee used a bunch of rested relievers
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: and still wound up losing.
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: I'm Milwaukee. I think they have a slightly better bullpen.
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: It's still the slightly more rested bullpend here, so that's
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: somebody to keep in mind. I'll give Chicago a very
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: slight offensive edge al the Milwaukee does hit pretty well
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: on the road. Both offenses are good. This is an
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: interesting pitching matchup Mammer. On the surface, this looks like
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: a very low scoring game and the total is very
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: very low, which also means that the wind must be
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: blowing in again in Wrigley, because if you see it's total, that's.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: Not even at seven, it's actually at six and a half.
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: That is a crazy low total. So the wind must
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: be blowing in at Wrigley here. Starting pitching, Quinn priest
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: Or from Milwaukee, just having a season that's probably well
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: above his pay grade, to be honest, three point four
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: to EIGHTYRA and one point two to four whip is
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: not terrific. He's doing a little bit better on the
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: road three point twenty five yrround the road. One thing
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: about Priester, though, this run that he's on is absolutely insane.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: His team has won.
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: Fourteen start in a row now of his so, I mean,
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee went on that streak with the I think they
• 20:04
  Speaker 2: won fourteen games in a row at one point, They've
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: won fourteen of his starts in a row, which is insane,
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: And actually most of those starts have actually been pretty
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: good too. He's a lot more than two hourn runs
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: and only three of them, and more than three only twice,
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: more than four only once, which was a start at
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: against the mets 're a pretty good hitting team. He
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: bounced back decently at the Reds last time out, even
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: though the Reds.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: They have a hitter friendly park.
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: He pitched pretty well, went five and a third, give
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: up tow hourn runs, five strikeouts, one walk, So priest,
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's not in terrible for him right now still,
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: although he does have a four point eight six c
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: RA this month eleven to four strike at walk ratio,
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: which isn't that terrible, but only because of that one
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: bad start against the Mets kind of skewing those numbers.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: His numbers against the Cubs, however, are not very good.
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: In fifty two at bats, six to six strike a
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: walk ratio three twenty seven average allowed nine to ninety
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: three oh ps. So is this gonna be where pre
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: where the streak ends for Priests, or it might because
• 21:04
  Speaker 2: he's not.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: The better of these two pitchers.
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: Obviously, the better of these pitchers is show to Imanaga
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: for the Cubs, who has a way better whip, a
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: three point zero sixty RA and point nine to five whip,
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: which is basically elite. He's been very very good home
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: and away, very similar at ERA both home and away
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: this month. He's given up three or fewer earned runs
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: and all three starts going at least six and a
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: third in every outing, twenty two to two strikeout walk ratio.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: He's just really much, very much in command right now.
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: Did pitch against Milwaukee on July thirtieth and picked up
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: a win in that game. It wasn't as great as
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: start though he went five innings to give up three
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: on runs. Did still have eight strikeouts and no walks, though,
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: So he is gonna have to step back up in
• 21:46
  Speaker 2: class to face Milwaukee because his last three outings were Cincinnati,
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis Pittsburgh. The best of those offenses is Cincinnati,
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: so not exactly a gauntlet of offenses there. Quinn Priester,
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: by the way, I should mention he faced the Cubs
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: the day before that, back in late July as well.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: He had a little bit of a worse outing than
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: Imanaga did.
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: He went five to two thirds, kind of escaped only
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: along tour in runs because he gave up eight hits,
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: which isn't very good, and had three strikeouts two walks.
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: So Emonnaga did have the better of the two starts
• 22:17
  Speaker 2: in that series. I Monaga, though he doesn't have good
• 22:20
  Speaker 2: numbers against the Brewers.
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: In fifty four at.
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: Bats, twelve to one strike a walk ratio is good.
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: He's allowed four home runs, though, two of them to
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Contreras two ninety six batting average allowed in eight eighty
• 22:30
  Speaker 2: three ops, so both starting pitchers actually have bad matchup
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: numbers in this game.
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: Cubs.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Carrie Wood, where's that guy at now? I remember he?
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: I remember his twenty strikeout performance Manu.
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know.
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: Where he's at now, but I remember that that tied
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: what was it? Roger Clemens had the record of twenty strikeouts.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: I should know, because I think it was for my
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: bust In Red Sox, although I don't know if I'm
• 22:56
  Speaker 2: exactly a Clemens fan at this point. I mean, we
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: all basically turned on him when.
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: He went to the Yankees. So yeah, fuck the Yankees.
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: Yankee suck.
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: And that's gonna lead into uh because yeah, we might
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: have an interesting matchup between the Yeah, the Red Sox
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: and the Yankees coming up starty today as well. Yeah,
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: Kerry would I believe he tied Clemens record for twenty
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: strike guds in a game, which I believe still stands.
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: I could be mistaken on that though, But.
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: In this game, like I said, the totals already down
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: to six and a half, although you might still find
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: a seven out there, seventy two percent of tickets on
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: the over, sixty two percent of the cash on the under.
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: I would hesitate on this under though, man, because even
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: though both bullpens are pretty good, they're fairly overworked right now.
• 23:39
  Speaker 2: The starting pitching, like it just showed you, their matchup
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: numbers are not very good. So I would definitely hesitate
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: to play an under in this game, man, I think
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: you have almost no room for error at all. I
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: know the weather should help out the under a bit here,
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: and it's probably I would imagine it's cool in Chicago
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: as well, because it's.
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Not very warm where I am here.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: We're gonna be in the sixties today in Boston actually
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: seventy three, so it actually isn't as cool as I
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: thought in Chicago there, But even so, the wins got
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: to be blowing in. The money seems to be coming
• 24:08
  Speaker 2: in on Milwaukee. Cubs down for minus one twenty four
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: to one twenty seven excuse me, sixty seven percent tickets,
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: seventy one percent of the cash on Milwaukee. Maybe the
• 24:17
  Speaker 2: thought is that Milwaukee's gonna bounce back from losing a
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: couple of games. I'm not gonna get involved in this
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: game at all, man, I don't really like the under
• 24:26
  Speaker 2: though at all.
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: I don't necessarily I don't really think I like Milwaukee either.
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: Like looking at the match up here, I actually my
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: tendency was to slightly leaning to Chicago in the game,
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: and I actually would maybe slightly even lean to an
• 24:38
  Speaker 2: over with the total being that low. But that's not
• 24:41
  Speaker 2: going to be a game I'm gonna get involved in
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: at all. Dodgers at Colorado this is kind of an
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: interesting one. Colorado has actually won two of the three
• 24:48
  Speaker 2: games of this series so far. The Dodgers not playing
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: well right now, man, Even though the Dodgers are obviously
• 24:54
  Speaker 2: the better team, they have the way better offense. They
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: do have the better bullpen, even though their bullpen's not
• 24:59
  Speaker 2: that good.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Usage is better as well over the last few days.
• 25:04
  Speaker 2: Yesterday it was about the same, So Dodgers do up
• 25:07
  Speaker 2: all these advantages. They should have a starting pitching edge
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: in this game as well. Clinton Kershaw pitching for the Dodgers.
• 25:13
  Speaker 2: I mean, he's not as good as he once was, obviously,
• 25:15
  Speaker 2: but he's got decent numbers this year three point zero
• 25:18
  Speaker 2: one ERA, one point two whip better on the road
• 25:21
  Speaker 2: two point three to four e RA, even though I
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: know now he has to go to Coors Field, which
• 25:25
  Speaker 2: is a different animal. But he's been particularly good this month, really,
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: winning all three of his starts, going exactly six innings
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: and all of them allowing only tour runs combined only
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: his ten strikeouts, which isn't high strikeout rate, so he's
• 25:39
  Speaker 2: no longer the strikeout guy that he used to be.
• 25:41
  Speaker 2: But he only walked two guys, so his command is
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: still pretty decent. Over the past month, it's been good,
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: and his numbers are good. Against Colorado, I mean, their
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: offense is not good. In fifty seven at bats fifteen
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: to one strike at walker ratio one ninety three batting
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: average allowed five to forty.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Oh ps, although Rockies do hit.
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: A little bit better at home though, and he's going
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: up against Chase Dollander, who I think Dollander is interesting man,
• 26:08
  Speaker 2: because I know his numbers stink this year.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: This is his rookie season.
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure six point four to three ERA, one
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: point five to seven WHIP.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: Obviously, that's bad.
• 26:16
  Speaker 2: He's been really bad in coors Field nine point one
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: six e R in coreps terrible. I do think he
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: has a somewhat high ceiling though, and he has a
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: fairly high strikeout rate here this month eleven strikeouts nine
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: to two thirds with five walks though, so he's walked
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: too many guys, gone five or fewer innings in his
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: two starts here. Over his last four starts, he's gone
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: five or fewer innings. So yeah, he's not in the
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: greatest forum right now. He is worse at home, but
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: I think he does have potential to do better at
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: some point.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: He had an okay start against.
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: The Dodgers in coors Field back in June, went five
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: to two thirds, allowed three on runs. He only had
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: one strikeout in two walks, though, but he still held
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: this very potent lineup down fairly effectively. His numbers against
• 26:59
  Speaker 2: the Dodge are actually good. Uh they're only one for
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: fifteen off in this current lineup, with no strikeouts, though
• 27:06
  Speaker 2: two walks, no extra base hits, oh sixty seven average.
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: You can do the math on that two forty three ops.
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: Money seems to be coming in on Colorado, although some
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: of that is a function of LA just having been
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: way too heavy a favorite. They open it minus three
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: hundred and now they're down to minus two thirteen. That
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: is a pretty significant money line move, though seventy nine
• 27:28
  Speaker 2: percent of tickets only seventy four percent of the cash
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: on them. I don't think I would want to try
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: to do anything with the side here, though it does
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: seem like money is taking Colorado, probably on like a
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: run line or something to keep this game close. The
• 27:41
  Speaker 2: total's gone down for twelve and a half to twelve,
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: all the way from being juiced to the over on
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: the twelve and a half to juice to the under
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: on the twelve. Sixty percent of tickets only fifty percent
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: of the cash on the over. So money is coming
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: in on the under, and I actually might agree with that.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: I probably would not do it full game, though, just
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: worrying about the bullpens. I could see the under first
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: five innings being a play here, because I think both
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: starting pitchers might actually do okay in this game. So
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: that might be the way that I would play that
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: game if I was going to do anything, which I'm
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: not recommending to play at all, but if I were
• 28:13
  Speaker 2: to do it.
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: Mets at Washington.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: Washington won yesterday, I lost the first game of the series.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: Mets have something to play for here. Washington really does not,
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: other than the fact that they might want to spoil
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: the Mets season a little bit here. Mett's still playing
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: for playoff position here and even trying to make the playoffs. Mets,
• 28:32
  Speaker 2: I believe, well, they definitely have the better bullpen, but
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: they also have a very rested bullpen right now. They're
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: one of the most rested bullpens in baseball right now,
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: which is pretty good for them. Washington a little bit
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: less rested than that. So the Mets definitely have a
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: bullpen edge here. They do have an offensive edge. Do
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: they have a starting pitching edge? I think it's close.
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 28:51
  Speaker 2: This pitching matchup is interesting. Sean Menai is pitching for
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: the Mets. His era is not good anymore.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: He started off really good.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: He had a very late start to the season coming
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: back from being injured, and he was good for like
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: a few starts and then he's slid back a little
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: bit since then. Four point seven eighty RAL. Those whip
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: is still good one point one six. Usually his whip
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: is kind of the problem though, because he usually walks
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: too many guys.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: He is better on.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: The road four point three eighty RA so far this month, though,
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: like I said, he's been struggling it bit. He has
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: a seven point nine to eighty RA this month of
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: three starts, not a great sign really. The only great
• 29:27
  Speaker 2: offense that he facing that span is Milwaukee. Seattle is
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: Okay does still have a fifteen to three strike a
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: walk ratio over that span, though, so his command has
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: actually still been good. So you could argue that maybe
• 29:39
  Speaker 2: those starts weren't as bad as they looked because he
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: really didn't allow that many hits necessarily put that many
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: guys on base, So maybe he should have done a
• 29:45
  Speaker 2: little bit better than the amount of runs that he
• 29:48
  Speaker 2: gave up. But his numbers against Washington are not that good.
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: In forty eight bats, nine to one strike a walk
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: ratio is good but good, but three hundred batting average
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: allowed seven to forty two oh ps not horrible, but
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: getting a a little bit of the higher side there.
• 30:01
  Speaker 2: So maybe Manigah not exactly trustworthy right now. Mackenzie Gore
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: pitching for Washington. I mean, he's a guy that has
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: really good strikeout stuff, but he also walks away too
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: many guys.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: He definitely struggles at times.
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: Four point zero four ERA one point three to two
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: whip is definitely too high. He is worse at home
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: to four point six two ERA at home. His last
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: two starts have both been really good, though the seventeen
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: to three strikeout walk ratio twelve innings tour in runs
• 30:29
  Speaker 2: a lot combined. One was at San Francisco, which they're
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: not a good offense, but the other ones against Philly,
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: who are a good offense, and he did well there too,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: So he seems to have maybe come back into form recently.
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: Here.
• 30:39
  Speaker 2: Oh, those last couple of starts after he was really
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: bad for a stretch prior to that. Sumis against the
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: Mets are okay, and one hundred and twenty at bats,
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: thirty to ten strike out walk ratio two fifty eight
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: batting average allowed seven to fifteen ops. I would probably
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: give a slight lean to Washington here, man, I think
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: they have a somewhat of a starting pitching edge here.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: I would only do it in the first five innings, though,
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: I would not want to do anything with Washington's bullpend.
• 31:03
  Speaker 2: The money seems to agree with the Washington side. I
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: think Gore is in better form right now, does have
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: the better on matchup numbers. Mets down for might just
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: one thirty five, So I just won twenty five on the
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: money line here, seventy two percent of tickets, only fifty
• 31:16
  Speaker 2: three percent of the cash and money coming in towards
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: the under as well, eighty four percent of tickets only
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: sixty six percent of the cash on the over eight here.
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: But again, I think the best way to play this
• 31:26
  Speaker 2: game is probably Washington first five innings money line at
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: whatever under dog price you can get there, because they
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: do think the starting pitching edge might be on their side. Yeah,
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: I know, dude, I'm basically gonna kill myself. I mean,
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: they had it in the first five innings. They were
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: winning the game the whole time.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: That absolutely should have been a win for me on
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: the show, yesterday.
• 31:48
  Speaker 2: It was horrific, like I should have had at least two,
• 31:50
  Speaker 2: if not all, three wins, and they all fucking lost.
• 31:54
  Speaker 2: San Francisco at San Diego this is interesting. I mean
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: this is a big divisional matchup, yes, but San Diego
• 32:02
  Speaker 2: after winning the last two games by a combined.
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: Thirteen to two score, I think there's a.
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: Potential here that San Diego might overlook San Francisco in
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: this last game here because San Diego's basically dominated San Francisco.
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: I mean they've won, I think basically got a quick revenge.
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: They won what is this, five of their last six
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: games against San Francisco. But San Diego has a huge
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: weekend series coming up starting tomorrow against the Dodgers. They
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: have to play the Dodgers again, so they might look
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: ahead here. Man, San Francisco definitely out of it, but
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: San Francisco may show up because they.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: May want to beat their division rival. Here. We have
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: two good bullpens here.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: San Francisco used Tristan Beck for a lot of pitches,
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: but other than that, not a ton of usage bullpen
• 32:45
  Speaker 2: wise on either side here. So both bullpens, I would
• 32:49
  Speaker 2: say we're in pretty decent shape and they're both good bullpens.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: San Diego has a better offense. San Francisco's is awful.
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: San Diego's is not that great either, though, looking at
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: the starting pitching matchup, we might actually find a bit
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: of an San Francisco here man. Justin Verlander is pitching
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: for the Giants. I know we can't necessarily trust him
• 33:07
  Speaker 2: at his very old age here four point two to
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: three ERA, one point four to two whip is really bad,
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: slightly worse on the road four point three six ERA
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: on the road. This is a picture friendly park. But
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: if you look over his last five starts, he's allowed
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: zero or one or run in four of the five,
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: so he's not exactly in poor form right now. Had
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: a good start last time out, shutting out Tampa Bay
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: seven innings, two hits, allowed, eight strikeouts, no walks. That's
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: like vintage Verlander, justin vintage Lander in that one.
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: So maybe he is back and form and pitching pretty well.
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: He does have good numbers against San Diego in his
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: career one hundred at bats, twenty five strikeouts, four walks,
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: two twenty batting average five to ninety ops. So does
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: Verland or actually have a little bit of an edge here,
• 33:53
  Speaker 2: it's possible.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: I mean, all those numbers came in.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: The past, though he hasn't faced them this year. So obviously, Verlander,
• 33:59
  Speaker 2: he's not as good this year as he has been
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: in the past, so that's something.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: To keep in mind. But he does have good matchup numbers.
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: He's going up against Dylan Cease, who's obviously the younger,
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: more potent pitcher, let's say at this point. But Cease
• 34:12
  Speaker 2: has definitely been struggling this year. Four point six one ERA,
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: one point three to one WHIP. Those are not very
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: good numbers, though he has been better at home. Three
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: point six one ERA, although he just he's been really
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: inefficient with his pitches. Man, he racks up a high
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: pitch count pretty quickly in most of these games this month.
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: Three point one four ERA is alright, but he has
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: an eighteen to nine strikeout walk ratio, so again, really
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: high strikeout rate, but a really high walk rate as well,
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: so he's kind of getting away with putting guys on base.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: His last start was pretty bad. I know it was
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: against the Dodgers. I know the fielding kind of disrupted
• 34:47
  Speaker 2: his start. A couple of unearned runs came through in
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: that one, but he did walk six guys, give up
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: two hits and.
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: Three and a third three earned runs. I know it's
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: the Dodgers.
• 34:56
  Speaker 2: They're really good offense, especially at home, which is where
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: that was for the Dodger. But Cease maybe not in
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: the greatest form right now. His numbers against San Francisco
• 35:05
  Speaker 2: shockingly because San Francisco is not a good offense at all.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: Fifty four at bats, eighteen to ten, strike a walk
• 35:11
  Speaker 2: ratio not great, two ninety six average, eight forty four
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: oh ps. Cease does not have very good numbers here, man.
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: So I'm actually gonna say the lean in this game
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: is to San Francisco.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: You could grab them probably on an on a run
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: line price like plus one and a half.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: It's tempting to do that.
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: The money seems like it's kind of coming in in
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: San Diego, but I don't really agree with that. Up
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: for minus one sixty five to minus one to seventy seven, uh,
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: sixty eight percent of tickets, only seventy one percent of
• 35:37
  Speaker 2: the cash or excuse me, sixty eight percent of tickets
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: and seventy one percent of the cash excuse me, So
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: the cash is actually.
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: Coming in San Diego earlier today, it.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: Actually looked like the opposite was happening, very weird, and
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: the money's coming in on the under as well. The
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: totals dropped from eight to seven and a half, sixty
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: one percent of tickets on the over, sixty percent of
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: the cash on the under. Professional betters expecting this to
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: be a pitching duel and we have two good bullpens.
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: I could see the argument for that, But I actually
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: think that with the price like this, I think there
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: might actually be some value grabbing San Francisco again at
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: like a plus one and a half run line maybe,
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: which might have more value because again, it's predicted to
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: be a fairly low scoring game, so those runs are
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: worth more in a game like that, And the matchup
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: numbers actually looked like they somewhat favor Verlander.
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: So that's the way that I would lean to that game.
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: As awful as that sounds, probably San Francisco run line up.
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: Let me take the Chicago sky play has been up
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: all all show, Andrew, what's up?
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: Man? You know, like Ashley Saint Clair went went on.
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: Boston and New York Red Sox Yankees Man, the Red Sox,
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: They've actually been pretty well against the Yankees over these
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: recent years, even though the Yankees are always the better
• 36:47
  Speaker 2: of the two teams, which they still are, is the
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: Red Sox had like a multiple game lead ahead of
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: the Yankees, and the Red Sox have been completed ass recently.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: While the Yankees have won five games in a row,
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: the Red Sox blew both games against ball to.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: More very very bad.
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: However, the situation I think is a little bit better
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: for the Red Sox in this game, which I'll explain
• 37:08
  Speaker 2: in a second. Maybe I was just pointing out the
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: Yankees have overtaken the Red Sox again. I still think
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: the Yankees are gonna win the Ale East. You can
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: get them, by the way, at like plus two to
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: eighty right now to win the Ale East.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: I think they will. I don't think Toronto's that good.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: I think Toronto's gonna fall, so I would actually probably
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: make that bet if you wanted to bet on a future,
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: I bet the Yankees at a really solid price to
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: win this division.
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately, because fuck the Yankees. Yankees suck.
• 37:35
  Speaker 2: Yankees are hot right now again, like I said, but
• 37:37
  Speaker 2: they're returning over from a road trip. So as I
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: always say, you return home from a road trip sometimes
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: you fall into like a return home distraction spot. I know,
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: you're not really gonna be that distracted when it's the
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: Red Sox. It's baseball's biggest rivalry basically, so you're not
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: gonna be unfocused really, but still they have to return home.
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: They're traveling, and the Red Sox didn't play yesterday while
• 37:57
  Speaker 2: the Yankees did, so the Red Sox do have a
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: rested vantage here, and they're starting a road trip and
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: they're only going from Boston to New York, which is
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: a quick trip. So the Red Sox definitely have a
• 38:06
  Speaker 2: rest advantage here and travel advantage here.
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: The Red Sox also have the better.
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: Bullpen, and the Yankees used three relievers yesterday, so the
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: Red Sox have a better bullpen and the bullpen rest
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: edge here.
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: Yankees obviously have the better offense. Charles, what's up man?
• 38:21
  Speaker 2: The Red Sox offense isn't that bad either, Stacks, what's
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: up man?
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah? I mean fuck the Yankees.
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: As a Red Sox fan can't stand them. But the
• 38:31
  Speaker 2: Red Sox are probably not gonna make the playoffs here,
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: even though they've been teasing us. This starting pitching matchup,
• 38:36
  Speaker 2: this is a hard one for me to figure out.
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: Man Lucas Gilido is pitching for the Red Sox. He
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: was really bad to start the season for the Red Sox,
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: and then they figured something out with his mechanics and
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: they kind of fixed him and he was pitching well,
• 38:50
  Speaker 2: and then he's had a couple of bad starts in
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: the mix there again. Recently decent numbers on the season
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: three point six three ERA, one point two to five WHIP.
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: It's a little bit higher than I would like.
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: He's been a little bit better on the road three
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: point four to seventy R on the road. Yankee Stadium
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: not an easy place to pitch. But I would say
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: he's still in pretty good recent form though, because three
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: of his last four starts he went at least six
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: innings and allowed one on and run a piece in each
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: of those three And had one bad start in the
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: mix there against San Diego where he walked six guys.
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: But if you throw that one out, what is that.
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: A fourteen to four strike out walk ratio over those
• 39:27
  Speaker 2: other three starts.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: So I guess two with that information what you will.
• 39:32
  Speaker 2: Although he has struggled against some of the better lineups
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: he's faced this season, like Philadelphia Cubs, both on the road.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: Those are rough outings for him.
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: So he may have a rough outing here against the
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: Yankees because it's another good offense that he's facing on
• 39:44
  Speaker 2: the road here, which those are the games that he
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: sended to do poorly, and aside, I believe from a
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: couple of games at home where he did really bad
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: early on too. Yankees have okay numbers against him in
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: forty three at bats eleven to seven strike at walk
• 39:57
  Speaker 2: ratio not a good ratio for him. He's giving up
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: some extra base hits. Two fifty six average allowed is
• 40:03
  Speaker 2: not that bad, but seven to fifty five ops is
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: getting a little bit on the higher side, so mediocre
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: Gilido against the Yankees, he's going up against Louis Heel,
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: So we have it's LG versus LG.
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: In this game. Man, this is the TV battle, and
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: it's on TV.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: It's on Fox because it's Red Sox Yankees, so we
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: actually get a nationally televised baseball game for once.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: In the evening. It's it's the LG battle all around
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: me because.
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: It's LGLG and you can watch it on an LGTV.
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: To round it out, man, they should do they should
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: do advertising for LG Right. Louise Heel pitching for the Yankees.
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: I know his numbers don't look good so far, five
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: point one four ERA, one point six four WHIP. He's
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: better than his numbers suggests, though. I mean, you look
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: at what he did last year. His numbers are pretty good.
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: He's a guy that has good strikeout stuff, but he
• 40:53
  Speaker 2: also is way too wild.
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: That's basically his thing. He's very, very difficult to hit.
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: He doesn't allow that many runs, but he walks way
• 40:59
  Speaker 2: too many guys and he gets a lot of strikeouts,
• 41:01
  Speaker 2: so that's what he does. He's been better at home
• 41:04
  Speaker 2: this year three point three to eighty RA. He's only
• 41:07
  Speaker 2: made three starts so far, and he's kind of improved ish.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: With each startled.
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: I guess his best start was really the home one
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: against Houston, so again, his best start was at home.
• 41:17
  Speaker 2: Had seven strikeouts, one walk, five and a third two
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: earned runs allowed in that one. He allowed one ear
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: and run last time out against Saint Louis on the road,
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: but he walked three guys. So his walk rate again
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: is still way too high. But he is starting to
• 41:31
  Speaker 2: pitch a little bit better again. He started the season injured,
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: so he's trying to come back from injury, and he
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: has good numbers against the Red Sox, which I'm about
• 41:38
  Speaker 2: to show him twenty eight at bats and only have
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: four hits, no extra base hits, nine strikeouts, two walks,
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: So the Red Sox really struggled to hit him when
• 41:45
  Speaker 2: they faced him last year one forty three average, allowed
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: three forty three oh ps, so he'll probably does have
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: the upper hand of the starting pitching matchup here. It's
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: a bad situation for the Yankees though, but the Yankees
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: took a lot of money to go from plus one
• 41:59
  Speaker 2: hundred just one thirty eight. But it looks like the
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: cash percentage is actually coming back on the Red Sox.
• 42:05
  Speaker 2: Fifty seven percent of tickets on the Yankees, seventy percent
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: of the cash coming on the Red Sox. I do
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: believe that the Red Sox would be an anti public
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: play here. If you want to go with the Red Sox,
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: you have to make it a full game play because
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: you want the bullpen advantage to be in.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: Your play there.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: I would probably be looking maybe first five innings. The
• 42:23
  Speaker 2: Yankees probably have the advantage, so maybe do something with that,
• 42:26
  Speaker 2: like a Yankees run line in the first five innings
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: might make sense as well. Money's coming in on the
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: under seventy nine percent of tickets on the over seventy
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash on the under total, kind of
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: just sitting at eight and a half, I would worry
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: about that.
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, Yankee's bullpen isn't really that great.
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: I could see potentially either start or maybe actually not
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: doing totally great in this game either.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: Probably more so Ga Lee.
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: You know, so I would worry about the going under
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: in that game as well.
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: Houston Baltimore.
• 42:56
  Speaker 2: I'll give out a play after I do Saint Louis
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: Tampa that he was in Baltimore game, and I'm going
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: against the marketer. But I think there's a situational angle
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: to play in that game. Saint Louis and Tampa Bay. Here,
• 43:09
  Speaker 2: Tampa Bay, they've lost three games in a row. Now
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: they're not going anywhere. Neither of these teams are going anywhere.
• 43:15
  Speaker 2: Both bullpens are actually pretty decent, although I would probably
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: say I think Saint Louis probably has the better bullpen
• 43:23
  Speaker 2: numbers still, at least Tampa Bay. By the way, I
• 43:26
  Speaker 2: believe they were playing the Yankees yesterday, right, So yeah,
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: So the Tampa played the Yankees yesterday, so they're coming
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: off a pretty big series, but they're staying at home.
• 43:36
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis played Miami. I believe they played yesterday as well,
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: so they're having to travel. So there's no real rest
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: advantage one way or the other. But Tampa does have
• 43:44
  Speaker 2: a travel situation edge. Tampa used four relief pitchers yesterday,
• 43:49
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis used three, so Saint Louis does have a
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: little bit of a rest edge. Numbers on the season,
• 43:55
  Speaker 2: Saint Louis's bullpen's a little bit better, but Tampa's is
• 43:57
  Speaker 2: pretty good. I would say at this point Tampa probably
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: has the better offense. Saint Louis's offense has been really
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: struggling starting pitching.
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: On the surface, looks like Saint Louis does.
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: Have the upper hand of the starting pitching matchup, but
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: looking at the numbers, I'm not quite so sure about that.
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: Sonny Gray for the Cardinals, He's been good throughout his career,
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: but his ERA has gone up. Man, He's a guy
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: he usually has good command, doesn't walk a lot of guys,
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: but he's given up a lot of hard hits.
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: He has a four point three ERA one point one
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: to nine whip. He's been bad on the road five
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: point two to three ERA on the road, and it
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: might not get better in a very hitter friendly temporary
• 44:34
  Speaker 2: stadium here for Tampa where they're playing at steinbrun Or Field.
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: Gray last time out didn't do well against the Yankees,
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: give up six or in runs, still had seven strikeouts
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: two walks, so again, this is what I've been talking about.
• 44:45
  Speaker 2: He is a twenty two to four strike out walk
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: raceire this month, but he gives up some hits, some runs.
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: Although this month he actually was good against the Dodgers
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: and the Cubs, then he had a bad start against
• 44:55
  Speaker 2: the Yankees. So he does love a three point seven
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: to ninety RA this month, but maybe he's starting to
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: trend in the wrong direction again here up against Tampa Bay.
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: He does actually have good numbers though, in thirty eight
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: at bats eleven to one strike a walk, razio two
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: eleven batting average, allowed five to forty seven ops, so
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: it is definitely possible that Gray had a blip against
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: the yank He's still had good command in that game,
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: at least for the most part. He may do better
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: in this game against Tampa Bay, although it is a
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: stadium where he might struggle.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: He is going up against Joe Boyle.
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: Who I think is the much more difficult pitcher to
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: predict here. Boyle is kind of a converted reliever. He's
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: been decent as a starter. He's got a four point
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: six to eighty RA, which isn't good. One point one
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: to nine whip isn't that bad. He's been way better
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: at home. I know it's a really small sample size,
• 45:40
  Speaker 2: but I don't know how you can really figure that
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: out because it's a very difficult stadium to pitch him.
• 45:45
  Speaker 2: But a point sixty RA at home. He's coming off
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: a couple of really bad starts on the road, but
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: those were in pitcher friendly parks in Seattle and San Francisco.
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: He was awful in both those games, failed to go
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: more than three and a third innings in either of them,
• 46:00
  Speaker 2: which he's failed to do in his four of his
• 46:03
  Speaker 2: last five outings. He's actually only gone five innings once,
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: going all the way back into early July. So he's
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: not going deep into these games this month. Eight point
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: seven to one ERA, ten to nine strike a walk ratio.
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: I mean, try to figure him out. I don't know
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: how you can, man like he had a good start
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: at home against the Dodger, shutting them out for five innings,
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: and then he did really bad at those two pitcher
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: friendly parks. I don't really get it at all. Boil
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: very hard to figure out. I'm not a Boil understand er. Man,
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: I don't understand him. I don't think I've given out
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: a plan in any of his games. And Saint Louis
• 46:35
  Speaker 2: has never seen him before and he is at home,
• 46:37
  Speaker 2: so he might have a little bit of an edge
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: because Saint Louis has never seen him before, so they
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: might have to try to figure him out early on
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: in the game. The money seems to be coming in
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: on Tampa. Saint Louis down for minus one fifteen to
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: minus one thirteen, seventy percent of tickets, only sixty three
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: percent of the cash, so Tampa is a home underdog.
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: It might make sense. It might be the way to look.
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: And I wouldn't exclude their.
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: Bullpens, probably because their bullpen is still pretty good.
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: To take a sixty four percent of the couch on
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: the under as well, flipping the total at eight and
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: a half juice to the under. So money is also
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: coming into the under in that game, I guess to
• 47:10
  Speaker 2: do with that information what you will.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: I could see that being the case with.
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: An unfamiliar starting pitcher against a picture that has good
• 47:16
  Speaker 2: matchup numbers, decent boltpens as well, So I wouldn't really
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: disagree with an under in that game. But it is
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: a difficult stadium to play an under there, although the
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: total is not that high, and.
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: It is that way for a reason.
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: Let's go to the best bet segment here now, man,
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: Even though I know I gave out that play in
• 47:34
  Speaker 2: WNBA already in the sandwich spot in the WNBA, this
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: is a situational spot as well, and I'm going against
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: the market, but I'm gonna give out Houston plus money here.
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: You actually get the better team in Houston at a
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: plus money price here, even though it looks like the public, well,
• 47:51
  Speaker 2: the public isn't even really that heavy on Houston.
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: Man, this is a very weird market. Read.
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: This is Houston at Baltimore. Baltimore's flip from plus one
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: under to minus one fifth Dean here sixty percent of tickets,
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: eighty percent of the cash. So the actual money seems
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: to be coming in on Baltimore. I don't really think
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: I agree with it, and the money's coming in on
• 48:08
  Speaker 2: the under, which I could see some arguments for an
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: under here, which I'll show you in a minute, But
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: tickets fifty six percent of the cash on the under
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: total went all the way from nine juice to the
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: over to eight and a half juice to the over,
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: so some significant movement on the under.
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: Interesting.
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: But this is more of a situational spot for me, man,
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: Even though I know Houston actually played yesterday and Baltimore didn't,
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: so I know Baltimore actually has a rest advantage here.
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: But Baltimor's are turning on from a road trip, man,
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: so that might kind of counteract the fact that they
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: did have rest yesterday because they might be using that
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: time they have to get back to family life. I
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: think Houston is actually going to be extra motivated here
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: because Houston's still playing for something.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: Baltimore's out of it.
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: And yeah, I know, with Houston coming to your house,
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: you know that might be a series that you'll still
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: get up for. But they just came off a series
• 48:55
  Speaker 2: where they swept the Boston Red Sox.
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: That's a big divisional suitep for Baltimore.
• 49:00
  Speaker 2: The returning home could be a distraction, and they just
• 49:02
  Speaker 2: beat Houston two out of three in Houston and shut
• 49:05
  Speaker 2: them out in the first and third of those games
• 49:08
  Speaker 2: in the three game series, only losing one of the
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: games by one runs.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: They actually pretty.
• 49:12
  Speaker 2: Much dominated Houston in that series, outscoring them twenty three
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: to five in the series and shutting them out twice.
• 49:20
  Speaker 2: I think that Baltimore might not totally pay attention here.
• 49:24
  Speaker 2: I think Houston has extra motivation because of that. Man,
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: Houston needs to win because they have a slim lead
• 49:30
  Speaker 2: in the AL West right now. For Seattle. Houston's lost
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: four games in a row, so I think getting out
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: of Detroit after eight. Houston's offense has been horrific recently,
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: I understand. I think only scored two runs total in
• 49:42
  Speaker 2: the last four games. They actually only scored seven total
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: in the last six games, which is insane. Houston's offense
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: is terrible right now, but they still have a better
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: offense than Baltimore does. Houston does have a better bullpend
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: than Baltimore does. Houston's the better team, and we're getting
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: them a plus money here because they've been so bad recently.
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: I think getting out of Detroit, I think is gonna
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: be a good thing. And I think the fact that
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: they're playing this Baltimore team that just came into their
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: house and embarrassed them, I think this is gonna be
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: a big time spot where Houston actually steps up here.
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: And it's really pissed off about that.
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: So even though I know baseball streaking, I know their
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: offense is cold right now, they're in bad form. But
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: I think the fact that they played yesterday I actually
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: think might help a little bit because Houston, the fact
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: that they're continuing to play through, I think that's gonna
• 50:27
  Speaker 2: like kind of just help them continue their momentum here man.
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: And it's not like a huge travel spot going from
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: Detroit to Baltimore.
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is what it is.
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: I do think Houston actually might have had some more
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: hits than you would think in some of these games
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: in the series.
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: One of the games, the first game they had.
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: To face school ball, so it's like, what can you
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: really do about that? And then yeah, they actually didn't
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: have that many hits by mistake. But still I like
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: Houston here man, I don't necessarily love them in the
• 50:54
  Speaker 2: starting pitching matchup. I know this is crazy, but we're
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: going with George Costanza in this game here. Jason Alexander
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: is starting for Houston. I know, he's a guy that's
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: in his thirties. He's kind of a journeyman type of guy.
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: Hasn't been very good four point seven four ERA one
• 51:10
  Speaker 2: point three to three whip, I get it, but this
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: is more about the situation. But he's been better on
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: the road four point seventy r in the road this
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: year this.
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: Month, he actually hasn't been that bad.
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: Houston has actually won his last four starts in a row,
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: including a start against the Yankees and actually won it
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: against Baltimore where he actually did well against Baltimore. So yeah,
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: that doesn't mean Baltimore's recently familiar with him, so maybe
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: you have to worry about that a little bit. But
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: Houston is also going to be recently familiar with Brandon Young,
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: who's pitching for Baltimore. As you'll see in a second,
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: they both just faced each other, So that negates that advantage, right,
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: because the offense might have a little bit of an
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: edge against the pitcher when they saw them very recently,
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: but that is the case with both starting pitchers, so
• 51:52
  Speaker 2: that gets negated. Alexander pitched well against Baltimore's six innings
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: pitch tour in runs, six strikeouts, no walks. Nice start
• 52:00
  Speaker 2: for him there. He had actually gave up no runs
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: in the prior start against the Yankees and no runs
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: the start prior to that against Miami as well. So
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: this month he has a one r RAG in three starts,
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: fifteen to four strike a walk ration, only seven hits
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: allowed an eighteen innings pitch. He's pitching effectively, man go figure.
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: But he did well against Baltimore that first time. I
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: don't really expect him to do horrible here. His numbers
• 52:22
  Speaker 2: are good against them, mostly from that one start twenty
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: one at bats, two.
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: Hits did allow.
• 52:28
  Speaker 2: Those hits were a triple and home run, both from
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: Dylan Carlson, so literally nobody else on Baltimore's roster as
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: a hit off him. Only Carlson does six strikeouts, no walks,
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: own ninety five average four to twenty nine ops. So Alexander,
• 52:43
  Speaker 2: I do expect him to continue to pitch all right here,
• 52:45
  Speaker 2: and his pitch count wasn't high in that last game.
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: He was very efficient actually with his pitches and only
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: went seventy six pitches in that game, so I think
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: he'll be ready to go and as we'll see, we're
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: gonna be fading Brandon Young here. Man.
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: I think there were reasons to do this.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: Young has the worst numbers on this five point six
• 53:01
  Speaker 2: eighty RA one point four to nine whip. Now, I
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: know there are a few things that are misleading about this.
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: I know because Young he is still somewhat young. He
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: had a delayed start to his major league career because
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: of injuries and whatever. I think his ceiling is a
• 53:13
  Speaker 2: lot higher than what his numbers look like. I think
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: he is a better pitcher generally than Jason Alexander.
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: I do think that.
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: But he's been really that at home so far this
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: year eight point one ERA at home, so the splits
• 53:25
  Speaker 2: line up in favor of our play here. He's been
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: pretty bad this month, except for his last start, which
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: was against Houston. The prior too starts, well, he didn't
• 53:34
  Speaker 2: give up any runs against the Cubs, so maybe I
• 53:36
  Speaker 2: shouldn't say he was pretty.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: Bad the whole month.
• 53:38
  Speaker 2: But he only went four and two thirds innings in
• 53:39
  Speaker 2: that game, and then he got rocked by the A's
• 53:43
  Speaker 2: six earned runs and three innings. Bounce back and he
• 53:45
  Speaker 2: pitched really well against Houston, And this is what I'm
• 53:47
  Speaker 2: gonna talk about he went eight innings, giving up no
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: one runs, one hit, six strikeouts, no walks. He completely
• 53:53
  Speaker 2: dominated Houston. But the reason why I want to fade
• 53:56
  Speaker 2: Young here, even though he did dominate Houston, Houston is
• 54:00
  Speaker 2: at least now familiar with them. But Young took a
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: perfect game into the ninth inning in that game. And
• 54:05
  Speaker 2: I said this with Gavin Williams when Gavin Williams had
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: a no hitter broken up by allowing a home run
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: with one out to go, and his outing whenever that
• 54:13
  Speaker 2: was I forget what team that was against.
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna say the same thing here.
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: Man, When you're a young pitcher like this and you
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: have a stellar outing, you have the best outing of
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: your career, and you're that close to basically making the
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: history books with a potentially perfect game in that game,
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: and then you give up a hit and you get
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: pulled from the game in the ninth inning, I think
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: that hangs you over into the next game.
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: And he's the guy that hasn't thrown a lot of
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: pitches and most of his starts either, but they let
• 54:39
  Speaker 2: him go ninety three pitches in that one because they
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: let him try for the perfect game in that one,
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: So he's not quite used to throwing that many pitches either.
• 54:46
  Speaker 2: So I think he's gonna have a setback in this game. Man.
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: I think when you come off a huge game like that,
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: I think it can hang you over to the next game.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: So I told him this is a very situational play
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: for me here. It's revenge for Houston.
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: Plus I think this is a major may your hangover
• 55:00
  Speaker 2: spot for young after he just did that against this
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: Houston team. And yes, that obviously does mean his numbers
• 55:06
  Speaker 2: are good against Houston. Twenty eight at bats, they actually
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: have two hits lifetime off of him. One of these
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: guys must have not been in the lineup that day.
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: Seven to zero strike a walker, Red jow Oh seventy
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: one average, one seventy nine ohps.
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: I get it.
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: His numbers are good, but I think that he's in
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: a spot where he's gonna regress here, man.
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: So Houston is the play for me here.
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: And I think getting the better team in an underdog
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: price like this and the team with something to play for,
• 55:30
  Speaker 2: I think is another thing that's good here. And yes,
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: I know Houston did play yesterday and Baltimore didn't, but
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: Houston didn't really tax their bullpen. Their bullpen's fairly well
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: rested right now, and they have the better of the
• 55:41
  Speaker 2: two bullpens, so Houston's bullpend I think is fairly ready
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: to go. Most of their better relievers didn't pitch because
• 55:48
  Speaker 2: they were way out of that game yesterday, so they
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: didn't use their better relievers there. So Houston Astros is
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: the play there. And the other play game on on
• 55:57
  Speaker 2: the show is the Chicago skuy WNBA LUs fifteen or
• 56:00
  Speaker 2: fifteen and a half or whatever in a sandwich spot there.
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: Cunningham is definitely out for the year and she was
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: intentionally injured by whoever that player is on the Connecticut
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: Son who were the worst team in all of the WNBA.
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: It's disgusting, of course it was. I think it was
• 56:17
  Speaker 2: race related as well. Castanza, I can't stand Yeah. Yeah,
• 56:22
  Speaker 2: Biff Loman, Yeah, that's wait, Biff Loman is uh, that's
• 56:28
  Speaker 2: the son from Death of the Salesman, Right, Did I
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: get that right? Willie Loman's son, Biff. I think I
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: got that right. I don't know what the reference is
• 56:34
  Speaker 2: exactly though. I almost thought a Biff from Back to
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: the Future, but I think that's that's Biff what's his
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: last name In Back to the Future, I forget.
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: It's not Loman. The Loman is is death of a salesman.
• 56:45
  Speaker 2: From getting all my references right here, all right, let's
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: do We'll do the NFL before I get out here.
• 56:51
  Speaker 2: It will be about an hour on the show. Here.
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: We do two NFL preseason games here. Oh, Jerry calls
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: George Biff. Oh, but yeah, I think Jerry Jerry was
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: referencing a death of a salesman with that, I think,
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: if I remember correctly, I forgot about that Tanning uh
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: bif tannin.
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right from Back to the Future. That's right.
• 57:14
  Speaker 2: All right, So we have two games tonight in the
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: NFL Steelers Panthers. The Steelers a flip from a three
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: point dog of five point favorite, which you would think
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: that means that Aaron Rodgers is gonna play in this game,
• 57:25
  Speaker 2: but he's not, although Mike Toalman has said that all
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: the other Steelers starters are gonna play early in this
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: game at least, so it's gonna be all their starters
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: besides Aaron Rodgers playing in this game. And Bryce Young
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: is not gonna play for the Panthers in this game.
• 57:39
  Speaker 2: So Pittsburgh is playing their starters, so that's why they've
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: moved up on the number like this. Does that mean
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: you want to lay a price like that with the Steelers.
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: I would say no, you should not lay the five
• 57:49
  Speaker 2: with them.
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: Especially with a total as low as thirty five. Here.
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: You could look to maybe play the Steelers to go
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: over their team total, though, because if they're if most
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: of their offense is in there trying to win the game,
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: that might make sense. Al though, again, Rogers is not
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: going to be in the game, so that means that
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: for the Steelers, you're gonna get some mix of their
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: other quarterbacks here. They still have Mason Rudolph, which isn't
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: a bad thing in a game like this because Rudolph
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: has a lot of NFL experience, so that's probably not terrible.
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: They have Will Howard as well, who's a rookie that
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: they drafted, but he's questionable, so I don't know if
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: he's gonna get into this game. And they have Skyler Thompson,
• 58:24
  Speaker 2: who also does have NFL experience. So if you do
• 58:27
  Speaker 2: want to go Steelers over their team total, their quarterback
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: mix here actually isn't that bad. They at least have
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: experienced quarterbacks for the most part. There, Carolina not gonna
• 58:37
  Speaker 2: be playing Bryce Young's. They're gonna be playing a mix
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: of basically some guys that I don't think I've ever
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: heard of. Andy Dalton I think is hurt, so he's
• 58:44
  Speaker 2: not playing either.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: So I think it's.
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: Gonna be Jack Plumber and Bryce Perkins. Who I barely
• 58:49
  Speaker 2: know who these guys are. Is Jack Plumber Jake Plumber's son,
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: I don't even know. I guess he played at Louisville.
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: I barely know who he is. Bryce Perkins don't know
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: who he is either. He played at Virginia. I guess
• 59:01
  Speaker 2: he's in his third season. Never heard of these guys,
• 59:04
  Speaker 2: So I do think that you know Pittsburgh, I mean,
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: if you want to go over their team total, I
• 59:10
  Speaker 2: think it might make sense because I think they have
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: the better quarterback rotation and I don't think you lay
• 59:14
  Speaker 2: that much of a price on them though, though I
• 59:16
  Speaker 2: think their quarterback rotation in this game is better than
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: the Panthers is. Panthers defense also is bad, remember, so
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: if you get the Steelers going over their team total,
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: that kind of helps that out as well. And then
• 59:27
  Speaker 2: Patriots Giants is the other game, the Giants up from
• 59:30
  Speaker 2: two and a half to six and a half here,
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: which I think the Jackson Dart hype is real now, man,
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: And I'm hoping I'm proven right because I said that
• 59:38
  Speaker 2: I thought Dart was the best quarterback in the draft
• 59:41
  Speaker 2: class this year before the draft happened.
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: I said that, And I'm hoping that I'm proven right here.
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: Man. I think, sure Sanders is terrible, but I think
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: I was already proven right by how much his draft
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: stock tanked.
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: Man. So yeah, I mean, I.
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: Do think kim Ward will be pretty good, but I
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: think Jackson Dart is where it's at.
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: Man. I like him. I like what we see at him.
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: His physicality.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 2: He's maybe too physical, and then he's too willing to
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: run all over.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: The place and take a bunch of hits.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: He's got to kind of try to stop that and
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: get down and get out of bounce and not get
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: himself injured. But he can make the big throws too
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 2: into tight windows.
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: Man.
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 2: Like, I think Dart's gonna be something real. But this
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: line is probably too high on the Giants too. If
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 2: you want to go Giants over their team total, you
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: could probably have that at it because it is gonna
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: be Dart.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: They have a good quarterback rotation, actually they have him.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: I think you might see some Jameis Winston famous Jamis
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: action in this game too. It you know, I like
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: Winston to him, he just goes out there and slings it.
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: So Winston, I mean, you're gonna get if he's in
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: the game, you're gonna get one of two things. He's
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: gonna be throwing touchdowns or he's gonna be throwing pick sixes.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: So that probably helps with a general over in this game.
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: You might see this game go over in general, Patriots
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: seem like they're only gonna play Drake May for maybe
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 2: one or two series at the very beginning. He might
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: not even get into the game at all, So you
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 2: might just see the backups for New eng here, which
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: I think is why the line has moved.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: So in favor of the Giants here.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know if Russell Wilson will get into the
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 2: game at all, but the Giants obviously of him. To
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: the Giants, they got some decent, decent quarterbacks there. The Patriots,
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: you're gonna see mostly Joshua Dobbs and Ben Woldridge.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: Woldridge was really good.
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: In college but he's really inexperienced. Josh Dobbs has decent
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 2: NFL experience, so probably you're gonna get mostly Dobbs in
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: this game. And that's probably not really that bad of
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: a thing either for the Patriots.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: So I actually think it over maybe is worth a
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: look in this game.
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: With the way these quarterbacks are looking here, eighty percent
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: of tickets, eighty nine percent of the cash here, I
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: could see Giants over their team total as well. The
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 2: totals above that key number thirty seven and a half
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 2: for preseason, but it's gone up a little bit juice
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: to the over. I still think it might be worth
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: it in this game, though. You might see this total
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: go over based on what we're gonna see out of
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: the quarterback rotations here. So I mean, we'll see, but
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 2: I don't know if we're gonna get like totally intense
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: defense ascessarily, because again it's preseason, but preseason the totals
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: are always way way low because the offenses tend to
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 2: go kind of vanilla. They don't want to show anything,
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: they don't want to take massive risks and whatever.
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: But we'll see, man.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: But the reason why the Giants are favorite like that
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: is because Jackson Dard has looked really good in his
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: two preseason games, so the line is a bit high there.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: I know some of his throws were kind of short
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: throws last time, so a lot of yards after the catch,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: but he was still running around. He had a rushing
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: touchdown I think only through two incompletions in the previous game,
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: which is a pretty good sign.
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: And he was still making some longer throws as well.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens, man. I'll be back with you.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I'm gonna do a college football
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: preview or not, because college football is coming up, man,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: So if I do that, it'll probably have to be
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: tonight because I will be back tomorrow night. I will
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: be live with the Week zero College Football Show. Usually
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 2: I go live around midnight for these football shows college football.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: Friday nights and Saturday nights. I do the NFL.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: I know we've had a week, you know, with the
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: lines that moved and whatever. But because I tend to
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: fade the public, I tend to do it like closer
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: to when the games are actually gonna be playing.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: I know I used to do it mid week.
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: Maybe I should because you lose some value on some
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 2: of the numbers, but that's just I don't know. It's
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: kind of the way my schedule sets up anyway, So
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 2: if I happen to, like want to make a play earlier,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 2: like I used to actually bet these until recently, so
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 2: right now, I'm just trying to save my money. Go Niners.
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 2: You're a Niners fan, I would agree with you this year.
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think the Niners are my pick to
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: win their division this year. I think they're gonna have
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: a big bounce back season. I like them to go
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: over their team till. I mean, they were just massively
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: injured last year. I think everybody's overlooking the forty nine
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: ers this year. Man, I think they could definitely do
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: something this year. They could potentially win the NFC again
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: this year. Man, I think they're definitely a contender. But anyway,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: I think they absolutely will be in the playoffs again.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 2: But anyway, Yeah, so at the very least, I'll do
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: a Week zero college football show because that starts on
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: Saturday with the Dublin game, and I might actually give
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: out a play in that game. I'm considering it strongly
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: right now, which would probably be my only Week zero play.
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: I have a couple of leans in some of the
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 2: other games as well, but I think that's that's probably
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: the strongest play that I see on the board right
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: now would be And I do only play sides basically
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: in college football for the most part, so it will
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: be one of the sides in that game, which is
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: it's the biggest game on the board too, so it's
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 2: the most exciting game. Uh it's Iowa State against Kansas State.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 2: But I may be live tonight, so we'll see if
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: if you want me to do college football predictions. But
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: I don't really know as much of the personnel though,
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: Like you really have to dig into like what did
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: this team change personnel wise, And I kind.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: Of do that like as the season starts and goes on.
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: So we'll see.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: Pierceall could definitely be good man. I mean, he got shots,
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 2: so he missed a bunch of time last year. He
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: got stolen from and shots. You can guess what that
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: person looked like they did that to him. I think
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: he's good. I think you're right. And even though they
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 2: lost Deebo, they still have Ayyuk there. Ayuk needs to
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: be healthy though I know he's got to stay healthy,
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: but they still got all those other guys. They got
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 2: Christian McCaffrey, they got Kittle, they still have. I believe
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 2: their offensive line is still pretty much intact as well,
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: Trent Williams or whatever. So many of those guys get
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 2: injured so often. They just they got to stay healthy, man.
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: But they got coaching. And then the other thing I
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 2: like about the Niners before I get out of here,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: which I don't think I mentioned in my NFL preview
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: shows that I did. They brought back Robert salom Man.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 2: I know he didn't do well as a head coach
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: for the Jets, but he was the defensive coordinator for
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: the Niners. I'm pretty sure right when they were really
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 2: good defensively, and he's back in that role. He's their
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: DC again. So I think that's really going to improve
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 2: their defense again. And their defense was dealing with injuries
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: last year. I know they lost green Law, but they
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: still have a lot of talent on that defense.
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so I think they're gonna be able to overcome.
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 2: Then I think, uh, yeah, did they lose a bo to?
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 2: I forget one of the bosas moved moved to a
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: different team. I forget which Bosa is which now though,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, Robert Sala. Yeah, that's a huge move
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: there for the forty nine ers. So I think they're
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: gonna their defense is gonna be good again this year.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: Not that I don't even think it was really that
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: bad last year. The team just kind of fell apart
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: with all the injuries in the season, just became a
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: lost season. So I don't think that's gonna happen this year.
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: But that's gonna do it for me.
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: Learn it's owed on Twitter and on Instagram. Oh yeah,
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: that's right. I should know that Joeya Bosa went to
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: the Bills. I should know that because the Bills are
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: on Hard Knocks and I've been watching it, but Bosa
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 2: hasn't really been in it very much. But Hard Knocks
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 2: has been going on for a few weeks now. It's
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 2: training camp with the Buffalo Bills this year. I always
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 2: watch it. It's a well produced show, although the entertainment
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: value of it a lot of it depends on like
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 2: how entertaining the coach is, and Sean McDermott, I wouldn't
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: say is exactly the most entertaining coach, Like, it's not
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: the most entertain Hating Hard Knocks, but I mean, I
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: still watch it. It's interesting, nonetheless, I mean, you have
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: some weird stuff going on with what some of their
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 2: players are.
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: Doing, what some of their players are into.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 2: It's kind of hilarious actually, just to see what some
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 2: of the players like to do, like in their free
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 2: time and whatever.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean hard Knocks. I always watching it.
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 2: I mean I find it entertaining anyway, But it is
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 2: with the Buffalo Bills this year. And one thing I
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 2: forgot to measure with the Bills is that their their
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 2: kicker is hurt right now, Bass so I don't know
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: when he's coming back, but he hasn't been available in preseason,
• 1:07:33
  Speaker 2: so they're short yardage kicker. They're like pat kicker is
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 2: one of their running backs, Ray Davis is making.
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: Kicks for them.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: And then their long field goal kicker I think is
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 2: actually their punter or something which is or maybe it's
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: a like backup kicker that they have whose name is
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: also Davis. I forget what his name is, Caden Davis.
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's a very very weird situation the Buffalo has
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: with they're kicking unit in preseason right now. The running
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 2: back kicking their extra points is really really hilarious though,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: which didn't even have to happen in the most recent
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: preseason game because they didn't even.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: Score at all. But anyway, yeah, that'll do it again.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 2: Learn it sold Twitter, learn It Toad, Instagram, or I
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: do short Better off Dead content there, Better Off Dead
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 2: of course, like subscribe to the channel here, you know,
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: do all that. I'm on audio as well on Spotify, Apple, whatever,
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: So go give the show a rating over there.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: Give me a good review, man.
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: And then I have my ukulele project covered in yuke
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: on YouTube, so you can get my ukulele content there, Patreon,
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: dot Com, slash, learned It Toad, and I do have
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 2: extra some bonus yuk stuff there. There's a Spotify feet
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 2: at one of the levels and requests at one of
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: the levels as well. Yes, sir, thanks for hanging out man.
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: Everybody have a good day. I appreciate it. Thanks for
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: hanging out man. And I was on Jose's show again
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 2: last night with we finished reading Hoppa's Democracy The God
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: That Failed, which we did over a span of probably
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: three or four years, twenty five parter. We finished the
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: book yesterday, which was I think the third or fourth
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 2: time I've actually read the book.
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: But that was fun.
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 2: We might continue that series and do some more reading,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 2: so I might continue to be on Hose's show with
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: live readings, but I don't know when that will be
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: out because I know he puts that out to the
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: patreons first, but it'll be out at some point. And
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: yesterday was Ron Paul's birthday too, so happy birthday to him.
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: I'm on here man. Everybody, have a good Thursday and
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: peace