Latest / Combat Veteran News / Hacked: The REAL Russian Casualties Numbers Are Insane!

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Hacked: The REAL Russian Casualties Numbers Are Insane! · Combat Veteran News

0:00
Ukrainian affiliated hackers have gotten
0:01
inside of Russia's personnel statistics
0:05
agency. And what they have found is some
0:08
shocking data that the Russian
0:11
government didn't even know it had to
0:13
keep hidden. Because inside of routine
0:16
sort of demographic reports was a
0:18
shocking revelation about just how
0:21
severe Russian losses in Ukraine really
0:24
are. Take a look at this. So, the
0:27
official data from the Russian
0:30
statistics agency Rosstat shows that
0:33
over 450 Russians are confirmed as
0:37
killed in the war and that this death
0:40
rate is accelerating. Now, the Rosstat,
0:44
again, the Russian Federal Statistics
0:46
Agency shows that according to official
0:48
death certificates, over 450,000
0:51
Russians have been killed in the war in
0:52
Ukraine, making it the fourth most
0:54
common cause of death in all of Russia.
0:56
And this is a country where the average
0:58
man drinks, on average, I think like
1:01
like
1:02
a gallon of vodka a month or something,
1:04
right? So, the fact that you can beat
1:06
out drinking yourself to death as the
1:09
primary cause of death in Russia should
1:12
is insane.
1:14
Now,
1:15
Russia has repeatedly dismissed
1:17
independent estimates as unreliable and
1:19
claimed that Ukrainians statistics on
1:22
Russian casualties are total fiction.
1:24
But Rosstat's figures, of course, would
1:26
make this war the deadliest conflict in
1:28
Russian history since the Second World
1:30
War. Now, the Belarusian cyber partisans
1:32
and Silent Crow hacking groups, which
1:34
may or may not be state-affiliated, I
1:37
don't really enough know enough to to to
1:39
make that determination, but
1:42
uh
1:43
the
1:45
wild part about this is that the
1:49
so, the data
1:52
essentially
1:53
uh looked at and let's see if we can
1:55
find this here. So,
1:57
the data looked at the death
1:59
certificates
2:00
of
2:01
Russians. And Russia has a series of
2:05
official codes about how someone died.
2:08
And that is the source of this
2:12
uh this hack, right?
2:16
And the
2:18
hack said, "Listen, here are is everyone
2:20
who has been killed either, um I think
2:23
they included basically everybody who
2:24
was listed as killed in war, killed due
2:27
to terrorist actions, killed due to um,
2:31
uh, like killed due to like hostile
2:34
incidents, and everyone listed as like
2:36
cause of death other, but their location
2:39
of death was in occupied Ukraine." And
2:42
so that aggregated to 450,000 dead so
2:47
far. And again, this is based on the
2:50
numbers here. This is just annual data
2:52
points. 2024, you saw 80,000 reported
2:55
dead. 2025, you saw that number rise to
2:59
more than double to 259,000. And you can
3:02
see now, just through August, guys,
3:06
the data stops at the end of August.
3:09
You're looking at that total approaching
3:11
388,000, right?
3:15
And
3:17
again, that is just
3:19
casualty stuff confirmed by the
3:21
documents, right? And remember that not
3:25
all records include the date of death.
3:26
Individual may have died months before
3:27
their death death is registered. There's
3:29
also likely to be a bunch of deaths that
3:31
are not registered yet, right? Because
3:33
again, this is the Russian bureaucracy
3:35
we're talking about. These guys are not
3:37
going to be like clamoring to get these
3:39
death benefits filed.
3:41
The other really important thing about
3:43
this hack is that
3:46
Russia is known to as a practice, as a
3:49
norm,
3:50
declare soldiers missing. And the rate
3:53
at which the Russian government declares
3:55
a soldier missing
3:57
is
3:58
very, very high and rising. The reason
4:02
is because these 450k
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this represents only the Russians who
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have been formally recognized by the
4:10
government as killed in the war, which
4:12
means
4:13
their families are receiving large death
4:16
benefits. And we know that the Russian
4:18
government tries
4:20
tirelessly to not have to pay out
4:22
benefits because they're going broke.
4:24
So, it's estimated that about another
4:27
178,000 Russians are listed officially
4:33
as missing in action. Now, some of them
4:35
could have been captured as POWs, it's
4:37
true.
4:38
And some of them
4:40
may actually be missing. They may have
4:42
fled their units or gone AWOL, but the
4:44
vast majority and this is confirmed by
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numerous reports by both Russian POWs,
4:50
Ukrainians, and other hacked data is
4:52
that these missing soldiers are ones who
4:53
were sent on assaults, were almost
4:55
certainly killed, but no one was able to
4:58
confirm it where the Russian commander
5:00
was unable to see what happened and
5:02
conveniently said, "Listen, we got this
5:04
missing soldier." We can stop his pay,
5:07
we can stop the death benefits from
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being paid out." And often times while
5:10
they're missing, if the commander is
5:12
pocketing that soldier's money,
5:14
uh there's an incentive for the
5:15
commander to say, "Whoa, whoa, whoa,
5:16
whoa, whoa. Whoa, whoa, Sergey isn't
5:18
dead, guys. Sergey was not blown up by a
5:20
Ukrainian drone, okay? That is a
5:22
internet rumor. He is totally fine, and
5:24
you should continue to wire his monthly
5:27
pay to uh my bank account for
5:29
safekeeping." Um that's a real scam by
5:31
these Russian commanders. They'll
5:32
literally just say, "Listen, we'll If
5:34
you don't If you don't transfer a
5:36
portion of your paycheck or cough up a
5:37
portion of your paycheck to pay me every
5:40
month, um I'm going to send you to the
5:42
front lines to get killed immediately.
5:44
Um or I'll send you into a more
5:45
dangerous unit. Or what Or you'll just
5:47
do it, or else I'll kill you where you
5:48
stand." Those are all norms in the
5:50
Russian army. So,
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when you consider the 450,000 dead,
5:56
plus the 178,000 that are officially
5:59
listed as missing in action, what you
6:02
end up with is some interesting numbers,
6:04
right? So, you have again, do a little
6:06
math with me, right? And then you have
6:08
an additional about 200k that a list is
6:10
missing, giving you a total
6:14
of again, we're going to assume that the
6:16
number that are held in Ukrainian POW
6:18
camps is is
6:20
negligible. It's probably less than
6:22
10,000. It might be less than 5,000. Um
6:25
you're looking at about 600, we'll say
6:27
620,000
6:30
actual Russians KIA. Remember also,
6:33
there have been about 27,000 foreign
6:35
fighters recruited by the Russians.
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Those They are not counted here because
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their death certificates aren't
6:40
registered anywhere in Russia because
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they're well,
6:44
foreigners.
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And we're going to assume that about 50%
6:46
of them have been killed, right? Or ish,
6:49
but they're generally
6:51
by almost every report are
6:54
they're sent on some of the most
6:55
dangerous missions. So, we'll add of the
6:56
27,000, we'll add about 10,000 were
6:59
likely KIA. So, again, you're talking
7:00
about around 630,000 that are likely to
7:04
have been killed. Now, we're going to
7:06
break down the math here in 1 second to
7:08
see whose estimate is actually spot-on,
7:11
but before before I do that, I want to
7:13
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Okay. So,
7:49
here's the other thing to remember
7:51
is that in general, in a conflict,
7:55
right? You have a ratio of wounded to
7:58
dead. And this is also important for
8:00
doing math. So, if you assume that for
8:03
every Russian who is killed, about
8:06
two are wounded. Now, there are some
8:08
reports that say that that number could
8:10
actually be as low as one to one; that,
8:11
for every that Russians have such a poor
8:14
medical evacuation system that if you
8:17
are wounded in Ukraine, there's a 50/50
8:19
chance that you're just going to be left
8:20
on a battlefield to die. And frankly,
8:22
some of the footage that we have seen uh
8:25
indicate that. That it seems like a lot
8:27
of Russians actually believe that. They
8:28
get wounded instead of trying to put on
8:30
a tourniquet or attempting to treat
8:31
themselves or even trying to return to
8:33
friendly lines, they just kind of
8:35
self-liquidate, which is um horrifying
8:37
on a number of levels. But it reflects a
8:40
belief in the Russian army that no one's
8:43
ever going to evacuate you, and that
8:44
even survivable wounds, you're not going
8:46
to survive. But let's assume
8:49
that it is a exceptionally high by
8:51
combat standards two wounded for every
8:54
one um for every one KIA, which means to
8:58
get the total casualties, wounded plus
9:00
killed, you would need to multiply this
9:02
by three. Meaning that the total number
9:05
of Russians dead killed or wounded in
9:08
this war is
9:09
is around 1.9 million. Now, here is the
9:14
part that I think is really important.
9:17
It's this. This is the Ukrainian
9:20
estimate of losses of the Russian army.
9:24
This is the cumulative total,
9:27
right, of the most recent months. And I
9:29
want you to I want to observe that
9:31
basically September 11th, all right,
9:33
we'll we'll we'll we'll we'll walk it
9:34
back cuz remember the data actually
9:35
ended in August. So, here we go.
9:38
We're talking about
9:40
let's see here.
9:42
So, this is
9:44
Oh, sorry, sorry. I'm I'm I'm ahead. So,
9:46
we want to go back to August. So, August
9:49
should put us
9:50
right about here, right here.
9:55
Right here, we are seeing
9:57
actually that 1 .5 million.
10:02
Right around 1.5 million first week in
10:04
September.
10:05
So, that says that actually Ukrainians
10:09
are probably spot on.
10:11
The Ukrainian estimate may, if anything,
10:14
be under-shooting the estimate of
10:16
military personnel losses.
10:18
That is insane, guys. It's insane for a
10:21
couple of reasons. First, obviously,
10:23
it represents one in every 200 Russian
10:26
military-age men have been killed in
10:29
this war so far.
10:30
That is unbelievable, right? Russia has
10:33
about 80 million total workers. That's
10:35
men and women who are capable of
10:37
working. And again,
10:40
like
10:40
that means that Oh, let's see.
10:44
Uh
10:46
we're talking about
10:48
uh 1.5 out of 80 represents about one in
10:54
every
10:55
That's not that helpful. Let me do real
10:57
math here. I swear I swear I did
10:59
actually do math in grad school. That
11:00
means one in every 53 Russian workers
11:03
has been killed or wounded in the war in
11:06
Ukraine.
11:08
I want you to understand that yes,
11:10
by according to the statistics from this
11:13
study, and I can show you here. This is
11:15
the location of these casualties. Now,
11:17
you obviously see there is a huge
11:20
uh this is the percentage of deaths by
11:23
region. You can see that Russia's most
11:25
populous regions are not actually its
11:27
most casualty-producing on a per capita
11:30
basis. You can see that despite being a
11:33
containing a huge portion of the total
11:35
Russian uh
11:37
population, Moscow makes up just 3% of
11:40
casualties, right? Rostov, Krasnodar,
11:42
right? And these are You can see that
11:45
some of the more economically prosperous
11:47
Russian regions, uh Belgorod, for
11:49
example, Kursk, Lipetsk, Nizhny
11:51
Novgorod, right? All of these
11:52
economically prosperous regions actually
11:54
are pretty light in terms of the
11:57
casualties.
11:59
Instead, I want to draw your attention
12:01
to some of the absolutely
12:03
poorest and depopulated Russian regions.
12:06
Bashkortostan,
12:07
one of the highest, 3 and 1/2% despite
12:10
being an absolute backwater, right?
12:14
Krasny Yar also way over represented,
12:17
right?
12:18
Again, nearly I think that's about one
12:20
in every 30 40 casualties has come from
12:24
Krasny Yar. Krasny Yar.
12:28
Understand that this this has a tiny
12:31
tiny population. And look at this.
12:34
Zabaykalsky, right? Absolute backwater.
12:38
Having again almost one in every 30
12:40
casualties, one in every 30 deaths has
12:42
come from this region.
12:44
So understand we talk a lot about the
12:46
fact that
12:47
Russia's poorest regions are the ones
12:49
bearing the brunt of this combat and and
12:51
you really see any here. You really are.
12:54
Again, like
12:56
I mean the idea that again like some of
12:58
these provinces like like let's see if
13:01
we can find St. Petersburg here.
13:03
All right, St. Petersburg again one of
13:05
the second largest cities in all of
13:07
Russia with a huge portion of its
13:09
population
13:10
carrying almost no discernible burden,
13:12
right? Leningrad all almost none take
13:14
place in kind of the European metropole
13:17
uh of of the Russian Federation and then
13:20
ethnic republics that are exceptionally
13:22
poor, you see huge rates of of
13:25
casualties.
13:27
But just because these are area these
13:29
are being these Russian casualties are
13:31
being drawn from areas with high
13:32
unemployment, being drawn from areas
13:35
with low job opportunities, with likely
13:37
low educational achievement, um
13:40
this is
13:42
still a failure of the Russian state to
13:46
um
13:47
put these people to better use. And and
13:50
and and again, obviously
13:52
like Putin's decision to invade his
13:54
neighbor is is wrong. Like it is it is
13:57
morally wrong. It has killed
14:02
hundreds of thousands likely of
14:03
Ukrainian
14:04
soldiers and service members
14:07
uh
14:08
and thousands and thousands of innocent
14:10
civilians.
14:11
But it is also just bad governing. Like
14:15
it is not It's It is harming the Russian
14:20
like Russia itself. Putin isn't making
14:23
Russia a world power by doing this
14:25
because
14:26
again, this is a country with a massive
14:28
fertility crisis, one of the lowest
14:29
fertility rates in the entire world bar
14:31
none.
14:32
Right? It is on par It is It is nearly
14:35
South Korea in terms of its population
14:38
collapse, right? And
14:41
like, understand: Here's, here's, here's
14:44
the Russian fertility rate over time,
14:46
and and you can see that basically it
14:48
has remained well, well, well below. I
14:51
mean, you can see it had a collapse in
14:52
the '90s,
14:53
but you look at, like, the 10-year
14:55
chart, and you can see that the Russian
14:56
fertility rate basically is, is
14:58
unchanged, trapped at below replacement.
15:01
And
15:02
for a country that is
15:04
having its its population, you know,
15:06
face a collapse
15:09
killing off a bunch of working-age men
15:11
is a really bad idea.
15:14
And
15:15
again, like you look at the
15:19
the
15:23
like population of Russia. I mean here's
15:24
here's what I mean. You see the
15:25
fertility rate getting low, but you can
15:27
see that the Russian population peaked
15:29
in '92 and in fact it's beginning to
15:31
literally collapse. You can see in 2020
15:34
it hit kind of another local peak at 145
15:37
million, right? And now you can see it's
15:39
just been totally fine off 143. And
15:42
remember these people are getting older,
15:43
right? You can see I'm I'm I'm doing my
15:46
part. I have two young kids and I'm
15:47
getting the ads for baby stuff, but
15:50
you can see that more Russians aren't
15:52
because they're getting older and the
15:55
median age of one of these dead Russian
15:59
soldiers
16:00
is actually reportedly most of them are
16:02
between I think 36 and 44, right? So
16:05
these are people that have probably
16:07
statistically had all the kids they're
16:08
going to have. Again,
16:11
if you were killing 19 to 24-year-olds,
16:14
they have potentially contributions they
16:16
can still make to the fertility rate.
16:18
But 36 to 44, again, these are guys who
16:21
probably had all the kids they're going
16:22
to have, probably. Um but are
16:27
but probably have kids to like support.
16:30
And again, that like
16:34
I can't tell I I I don't know what else
16:36
to tell you. This is a country who is
16:38
not doing its part to like reverse its
16:40
population decline. And again, it's not
16:42
like a moral
16:43
character. It's just It's just necessary
16:45
for the Russian state.
16:46
And seeing the Russian state, again,
16:48
pulling these middle-aged dudes who
16:50
admittedly are in the last 10 years of
16:51
their working life on the older end,
16:53
right? If you're 44, average Russian
16:54
probably starts to develop some health
16:56
issues in their late 50s. Average
16:58
Russian man's going to live until 65.
17:01
This
17:03
this
17:04
decision to kill a bunch of them
17:07
before they start developing health
17:08
issues
17:10
is again, like it's contributing to a a
17:12
population collapse. I don't know what
17:13
else to say.
17:14
And what is Russia getting for all this?
17:17
It's losing. The Russian military
17:19
suffered, obviously, record casualties
17:21
in Ukraine last month and also had a net
17:24
loss of territory to Kyiv's forces,
17:27
right?
17:28
The Ukrainian stats, which again, we now
17:30
just vetted and confirmed are accurate,
17:32
said that more than 54,000 Russian
17:34
troops were killed or heavily wounded in
17:36
October. An insane number. I cannot
17:39
emphasize this enough. Almost double
17:40
what Russia can bring in. Full-scale
17:42
invasion, right? One of the worst.
17:44
Again, Ukraine uses drone footage
17:46
document casualty numbers which now have
17:48
exceeded Russia's monthly recruitment
17:49
rate. European government assessments
17:51
showed basically the same figures.
17:53
And
17:54
for all their effort, Russia's losing
17:56
territory. And again, seeing President
17:59
Trump
18:01
think that there's totally I mean, there
18:03
could be a negotiated settlement as we
18:04
have talked about on this channel ad
18:05
nauseam.
18:06
Putin will negotiate when negotiation
18:08
appears to offer better outcomes than
18:11
continued fighting. And right now, for
18:12
Vladimir Putin, continued fighting
18:15
actually offers him continued losses of
18:17
territory and continued massive losses
18:20
of personnel.
18:22
It's just not a an option for him.
18:26
And
18:28
like again,
18:30
so far
18:32
uh
18:34
Russia's gained less than a thousand
18:35
square kilometers. That's uh
18:38
a thousand square kilometers of
18:39
Ukrainian territory in the entire year.
18:42
During the same period last year, Russia
18:44
gained three and a half times that
18:46
amount. Right? So,
18:48
and in exchange for that, again, the
18:50
Ukrainians have basically rolled the
18:52
Russians back in as many areas as Russia
18:54
has gained. So, the Russians might
18:55
advance in places like Kostyantynivka,
18:57
um
18:58
or or or or Sloviansk or Huliaipole, but
19:02
they're going to lose they were losing
19:03
territory in places like Kupiansk um or
19:07
in in Lyman. And
19:10
it's it's a wash for them. And they're
19:12
sacrificing so very much to do it. Well,
19:15
the Russian people are. And that's the
19:17
problem. Vladimir Putin, well, he's not
19:19
sacrificing anything. Anyway, thank you
19:22
to Alfred, Alan, Andreas, Bastian,
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Brent, Brendan, Charles, Christine, and
19:25
all the lieutenant tier folks. Hit
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