Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Bullish News, Bearish Price?📉Crypto Market Update
Transcript
- 0:05Speaker 1: My name a small bearer. Welcome back in a tech path.
- 0:08Speaker 1: Let's get into it today. I do want to thank
- 0:09Speaker 1: our sponsor and that is Coinbase. This is a great
- 0:11Speaker 1: place to get started in crypto and you can do
- 0:13Speaker 1: this as a business or an individual. Super easy to
- 0:16Speaker 1: set up. And guess what all you have to do
- 0:18Speaker 1: is use our code and you can get up to
- 0:19Speaker 1: two hundred bucks in crypto to get started. So start
- 0:22Speaker 1: your journey in crypto right over there on coinbase dot
- 0:25Speaker 1: com use our link down there. All right, let's get
- 0:28Speaker 1: into it today. Let's go with a couple of things. Obviously,
- 0:30Speaker 1: crypto liquidations hitting seven hundred million being liquidated out of
- 0:34Speaker 1: the market in the last twenty four Bitcoin dropped a
- 0:36Speaker 1: low ninety six thousand right now things thanks right now
- 0:39Speaker 1: as we record this trading around ninety four. So the
- 0:41Speaker 1: key is why are we continuing to see these kinds
- 0:44Speaker 1: of presses on the one hundred k zone and then
- 0:47Speaker 1: reversals everybody's been looking at once we hit that one
- 0:50Speaker 1: hundred k number, is it really hammered down up to
- 0:53Speaker 1: the next level? And I think a lot of this
- 0:55Speaker 1: has to do with much of the macro news is
- 0:57Speaker 1: starting to paint out. Some of the macro news is
- 1:00Speaker 1: course being driven by Nvidia, and Vidia dropped one of
- 1:03Speaker 1: their biggest projects ever, and that was called Digits. This
- 1:07Speaker 1: is a personal AI supercomputer. Look at the size of
- 1:10Speaker 1: that thing. That's a desktop monitor by the way, that's
- 1:12Speaker 1: sitting next to it, and a keyboard. This is the
- 1:15Speaker 1: kind of supercomputer that we're going to be using for
- 1:17Speaker 1: AI craftsmanship in the future. Most likely we're going to
- 1:21Speaker 1: see a complete shift in computing. The interesting thing was
- 1:24Speaker 1: that in Vidia did not respond all that well as
- 1:28Speaker 1: it spiked to an all time high and immediately retraced
- 1:31Speaker 1: back down to where it's trading right now about one
- 1:33Speaker 1: hundred and forty bucks. So I think the real question
- 1:36Speaker 1: is is what is pushing the market into this. These
- 1:39Speaker 1: are all bullish signals coming from the biggest stock within
- 1:42Speaker 1: the S and P, the most valued company, and then
- 1:45Speaker 1: you look at all of the factors that are more
- 1:48Speaker 1: from a macro side of things that would make you
- 1:50Speaker 1: think that this is ready to go into the next
- 1:53Speaker 1: zone of market go up. When you look at fed
- 1:57Speaker 1: rate cuts over the years, and this chart is a
- 1:59Speaker 1: little bit scared when you compare this to ten year
- 2:03Speaker 1: yields before and after the first FED rate cut. Now,
- 2:07Speaker 1: I want to kind of on this chart show you
- 2:08Speaker 1: guys something. So you'll notice here on the agenda September
- 2:11Speaker 1: twenty four, is that read right there? Okay, that's the
- 2:15Speaker 1: line we are on right now. So you'll notice that
- 2:17Speaker 1: we deviated right here from when the rate cuts started
- 2:20Speaker 1: to happen. And instead of trending down like we've seen
- 2:23Speaker 1: in past scenarios, past recessions, past financial and economic challenges,
- 2:31Speaker 1: this is not necessarily the case. The only other one
- 2:34Speaker 1: that seeps out similar to this is going to go
- 2:37Speaker 1: back to the year two thousand and everybody knows what
- 2:39Speaker 1: happened in the dot bomb era. We had seventeen trillion
- 2:42Speaker 1: that came out of the market when Dot bomb started
- 2:44Speaker 1: to occur. So are we in that phase of an
- 2:47Speaker 1: overbought s and P five hundred? What kind of impact
- 2:50Speaker 1: is this going to have on the rest of the market.
- 2:53Speaker 1: Other things that you got to consider is the FED watch.
- 2:56Speaker 1: Right now, everybody's looking at the next f FOMC meetings
- 2:58Speaker 1: twenty days away, and you consider this right now, at
- 3:02Speaker 1: this point, it looks like it's about a ninety five
- 3:04Speaker 1: percent chance that we're going to get zero of a
- 3:07Speaker 1: rate cut, we are going to go flat. I would
- 3:09Speaker 1: agree with that. I kind of thought it was going
- 3:10Speaker 1: to happen last month in December. I was surprised that
- 3:14Speaker 1: chair Pal came out with the quarter. I understand that
- 3:16Speaker 1: that was the situation that they had kind of grafted
- 3:19Speaker 1: into their plan overall, but it was perfect to not
- 3:24Speaker 1: do it. And I think that's the challenge that the
- 3:26Speaker 1: market's now hitting for sure. And of course I think
- 3:28Speaker 1: the question is is how does this play out for
- 3:31Speaker 1: the rest of the year, Because the rest of the year,
- 3:33Speaker 1: I think we are also going to see maybe even
- 3:36Speaker 1: though Powell has already said he's going to have less
- 3:38Speaker 1: rate cuts than what was initially going in, but fed
- 3:41Speaker 1: Fund's futures are now pricing in ninety five percent no
- 3:43Speaker 1: change January, March a sixty one percent no change, and
- 3:47Speaker 1: then maybe in May. So the seventh of May could
- 3:51Speaker 1: be the first rate adjustment that we could see this year. Now,
- 3:56Speaker 1: if you time that with where the market goes in crypto,
- 4:01Speaker 1: that may not necessarily be good for crypto in general,
- 4:03Speaker 1: outside of some of the narratives that are starting to
- 4:06Speaker 1: play out within crypto right now. Now there's a couple
- 4:09Speaker 1: of clips I want to go to this first one
- 4:10Speaker 1: is get to get into the inflation problem that everybody
- 4:14Speaker 1: is looking at of why it's so sticky, et cetera.
- 4:16Speaker 1: Let's play that clip.
- 4:18Speaker 2: We don't have an inflation problem. We have an inflation
- 4:21Speaker 2: issue relative to a two percent target. You heard previously,
- 4:25Speaker 2: this notion of sticky inflation, sticky inflation, stick inflation that's
- 4:28Speaker 2: actually stable inflation that doesn't disrupt the underlying economy in
- 4:33Speaker 2: any fundamental way.
- 4:34Speaker 3: Are you arguing for them to cut rates even as
- 4:37Speaker 3: inflation is hotter than they'd been hoping for it?
- 4:40Speaker 2: So my worry is the opposite is if they really
- 4:43Speaker 2: believe in two percent inflation, they would hike rates.
- 4:46Speaker 3: Okay, so this is an argument against them hiking correct, So.
- 4:50Speaker 2: If they really believed it, what I think we're going
- 4:52Speaker 2: to hear is, yes, we are aiming for two percent inflation,
- 4:56Speaker 2: but down the road, down the road, and we're going
- 4:59Speaker 2: to tolerate. May get one cut this year, but we
- 5:03Speaker 2: should not want them to be death set on two percent.
- 5:06Speaker 2: Because the death set on two percent, the rates are
- 5:08Speaker 2: going up, the rats are going up.
- 5:10Speaker 3: Do you think they'll raise rates this year? No?
- 5:12Speaker 2: I don't.
- 5:14Speaker 3: What would happen in the markets if if either there
- 5:18Speaker 3: were no cuts or if they actually raised cuts or
- 5:20Speaker 3: rain takes.
- 5:21Speaker 2: I think we can live with no cuts. I think
- 5:22Speaker 2: we've adjusted it dramatically. From a year ago. We were
- 5:25Speaker 2: expecting six to eight cuts, Now we expect them one
- 5:29Speaker 2: to two. We've pushed the one the market has all
- 5:31Speaker 2: the way back to July, and this economy remains robust.
- 5:36Speaker 1: You gotta love this. I mean, it's so amazing to
- 5:38Speaker 1: me that the financial infrastructure of our media out there,
- 5:41Speaker 1: it's not pointing fingers anybody saying, how can you not
- 5:44Speaker 1: really understand what's going on in the market when you
- 5:48Speaker 1: look at the percent. And I've had several analysts on
- 5:51Speaker 1: over the past two years as we started to see
- 5:53Speaker 1: inflation continue, I was probably one of those that was
- 5:56Speaker 1: a little bit more bearish on the side that it
- 5:58Speaker 1: was going to be sticky. We weren't going to get
- 6:00Speaker 1: it passed it until we start to see a change
- 6:02Speaker 1: out there within the United States and especially around money printing,
- 6:05Speaker 1: and that really is the bigger factor here. Interesting he
- 6:08Speaker 1: said a couple of things on there. I agree with
- 6:10Speaker 1: three percent. I think that should be the new baseline.
- 6:13Speaker 1: I do agree that I don't think we're going to
- 6:15Speaker 1: see any rate increases. If we did, that would definitely
- 6:18Speaker 1: mean a market meltdown. But I do think that we
- 6:20Speaker 1: may see fewer cuts in twenty five than even the
- 6:23Speaker 1: ones that your palell has been alluding to. So all
- 6:25Speaker 1: of that plays into this clip, and that is why
- 6:29Speaker 1: two percent versus three percent. Take a look.
- 6:32Speaker 4: The difference between two percent and three percent compounded for
- 6:35Speaker 4: the dollar is devastating and I don't know for you
- 6:38Speaker 4: to just blow it off. It's a little weird. I mean,
- 6:40Speaker 4: there's a reason they want two percent. That's fifty percent higher.
- 6:43Speaker 2: Than Do you know where two percent comes from? I don't.
- 6:46Speaker 2: I'm not, no, no, but.
- 6:47Speaker 4: Two percent three percent it would be well make all
- 6:51Speaker 4: of us feel awful.
- 6:52Speaker 2: It comes from the Bank of New Zealand, Okay, in
- 6:55Speaker 2: the early nineties.
- 6:55Speaker 4: It seems like a good number to me.
- 6:57Speaker 2: It's the number, but it's an awkward number.
- 6:59Speaker 4: What you've got to take you five as an arbitrary number.
- 7:03Speaker 4: We I mean, if you want to deflate thirty six trillion,
- 7:05Speaker 4: let's go to ten.
- 7:06Speaker 2: Then I don't want to pull the rug from under
- 7:08Speaker 2: US economic exceptionalism. I think we are outpacing.
- 7:11Speaker 4: That we're starting to at three percent.
- 7:13Speaker 2: I think we are investing in the economies of tomorrow,
- 7:16Speaker 2: if we in the growth drivers of tomorrow. If we're
- 7:18Speaker 2: not government, no, the private sector, everything else. If you
- 7:22Speaker 2: if you push.
- 7:23Speaker 4: This economy in government private sector, is now what causes
- 7:25Speaker 4: the inflation, Joe.
- 7:26Speaker 2: If you push this economy into recession, you will not
- 7:30Speaker 2: just lose current standard of livings, you will lose future
- 7:33Speaker 2: standard of living. We are in a very good position.
- 7:36Speaker 4: Loses the future standard of living.
- 7:38Speaker 2: That's the problem. Two and a half to three is
- 7:41Speaker 2: what I said. You want to immediately to three and
- 7:45Speaker 2: as long as as long as inflation expectations are stable,
- 7:50Speaker 2: you can navigate buy some bitcoin.
- 7:52Speaker 3: Muhammads he did protect again back in the day.
- 7:56Speaker 2: Not enough enough.
- 7:59Speaker 1: None of us did, damn all right, So you see
- 8:03Speaker 1: the thing the fight between this two to three percent,
- 8:05Speaker 1: and I do agree with Mohammed to a certain extent,
- 8:07Speaker 1: is that it is an arbitrary number. The big thing
- 8:11Speaker 1: that he said there that I think is the one
- 8:12Speaker 1: that maybe some of the analysts missed, is it's the timing.
- 8:17Speaker 1: Right now, we're talking about the evolutional shift in technology,
- 8:22Speaker 1: culture and demographics in most of the G seven G
- 8:25Speaker 1: twenty countries, globally, the likelihood of who is going to
- 8:29Speaker 1: be the next silicon valley is all hinged upon how
- 8:33Speaker 1: the markets do.
- 8:33Speaker 2: So if we.
- 8:34Speaker 1: Continue to push too hard and we push the US
- 8:37Speaker 1: economy into recession, he is exactly right. You're going to
- 8:41Speaker 1: thwart innovation, You're going to thwart investment, and that will
- 8:45Speaker 1: slow down the United States in terms of GDP going
- 8:48Speaker 1: into the global market. And I think that's where a
- 8:50Speaker 1: lot of the Asian countries and a lot of the
- 8:52Speaker 1: European countries could possibly make a play here. So that's
- 8:56Speaker 1: a big factor going out into where all of this
- 8:58Speaker 1: is pointing to a major v though for a crypto
- 9:01Speaker 1: industry judges halting the SEC's lawsuit against Coinbase, this still
- 9:05Speaker 1: shows very well on the future of crypto and I
- 9:09Speaker 1: think that's the thing that we have to pay attention to,
- 9:13Speaker 1: is that we're dealing with an administration that's coming in
- 9:16Speaker 1: right now that is very very pro crypto, and I
- 9:19Speaker 1: think this is going to be the key because they
- 9:21Speaker 1: see it as an innovation cycle that is one of
- 9:24Speaker 1: the technologies that is going to help the country start
- 9:27Speaker 1: to grow and get more positive GDP. So Coinbase has
- 9:29Speaker 1: been granted permission to pursue a rare interocratory appeal while
- 9:33Speaker 1: pausing the rest of the case. So it's a big
- 9:36Speaker 1: victory for that. At the heart of the case, certain
- 9:38Speaker 1: transactions involved crypto assets qualified as investment contracts. That's kind
- 9:41Speaker 1: of the scenario if you guys are brand new to
- 9:43Speaker 1: crypto and don't understand why coin Base was being sued
- 9:45Speaker 1: by the SEZ. But also it's an immediate appeal that
- 9:49Speaker 1: would materially advance the termination of the litigation. That is huge.
- 9:55Speaker 1: So if this does go through and the appeal takes place,
- 9:58Speaker 1: and we see it litigated and the judge on the
- 10:01Speaker 1: other side of an administration that is very pro crypto,
- 10:06Speaker 1: it could completely shift the cycle of how this goes.
- 10:09Speaker 1: And I think that's when we get these cases getting
- 10:11Speaker 1: dropped out of the SEC and just remember SEC as
- 10:15Speaker 1: in a completely different place than it was back not
- 10:19Speaker 1: too long ago. So of course, Paul graywell there from
- 10:22Speaker 1: Coinbase taking a little bit of a breather right now,
- 10:25Speaker 1: So that's good for crypto in general. Other things that
- 10:28Speaker 1: are playing into this. This was Jeremy Hogan talked about this
- 10:30Speaker 1: and this is in reference to the XRP case. He
- 10:33Speaker 1: also stated here that this is also the main point
- 10:36Speaker 1: of contention in the Ripple case. This is in reference
- 10:38Speaker 1: to what was happening in the Coinbase case. So again
- 10:41Speaker 1: very positive for XRP, very positive for Ripple, all of
- 10:45Speaker 1: this leaning into crypto as a whole. That being said,
- 10:48Speaker 1: you got to look at what's happening over at mar
- 10:50Speaker 1: A Lago. There was President Trump and of course Stuart
- 10:52Speaker 1: Aldlreadi and Brad Garland House very interesting bedfellows. Were starting
- 10:57Speaker 1: to see some movement I think within trypto finally making
- 11:01Speaker 1: its way into DC in a much anticipated boom. And
- 11:05Speaker 1: the real question is is what does this mean for
- 11:08Speaker 1: the markets going forward. The other thing that's going to
- 11:11Speaker 1: be looking at is stable coins, and of course with
- 11:14Speaker 1: stable coins, you've got to look at rl USD, which
- 11:17Speaker 1: they've just listed to ripple USD on Ethereum. That's a
- 11:20Speaker 1: big deal, so that's coming in very quickly. So imagine
- 11:24Speaker 1: when we see r l USD available in your coinbase
- 11:27Speaker 1: account or on your major accounts like Gemini, Crack and
- 11:30Speaker 1: many of the others that I think we'll see, along
- 11:33Speaker 1: with possibly even trading pairs is a big factor. I
- 11:36Speaker 1: want to go to this clip because this is monic
- 11:37Speaker 1: along the president over at Ripple talking about when we
- 11:40Speaker 1: might see that.
- 11:41Speaker 5: Take a look right now, this is available on bitso,
- 11:45Speaker 5: moonpe Coin, Miana, Additional listings coming on Bullish, Mercado, Bitcoin
- 11:49Speaker 5: and others. What about a huge platform like coinbase in others,
- 11:52Speaker 5: for example, when does that happen?
- 11:53Speaker 6: We are continuing to expand distribution and availability of Ripple
- 11:58Speaker 6: dollars on other exchanges, so I think you can expect
- 12:02Speaker 6: to see more availability, more announcements coming soon.
- 12:05Speaker 2: How soon?
- 12:08Speaker 4: Imminently?
- 12:09Speaker 1: All right, eminently? I like that word. She's doing it.
- 12:12Speaker 1: She's getting out there doing a media tour. That usually
- 12:14Speaker 1: means a precursor to something big that gets dropped. So
- 12:17Speaker 1: you're trying to get attention on Ripple. I think she's
- 12:20Speaker 1: done a good job. She also goes further in the
- 12:22Speaker 1: conversation to talk about the x r P e t F.
- 12:25Speaker 7: Take a look a lot of questions around whether you
- 12:28Speaker 7: could see an ETF tied to spot XRP. What kind
- 12:32Speaker 7: of discussions are you having with people about this? You
- 12:34Speaker 7: think we'll see one soon.
- 12:37Speaker 6: I think we will see one very soon. I think
- 12:39Speaker 6: that we will see more, you know, various crypto spot
- 12:44Speaker 6: ETFs this year, coming out of the US, and I
- 12:47Speaker 6: think XRP is likely to be next in line after
- 12:51Speaker 6: Bitcoin and eth. There's already been a number of different
- 12:54Speaker 6: companies like Canary and others who have filed and so
- 13:00Speaker 6: so we think, especially with the administration change and that
- 13:04Speaker 6: the approvals of those filings will accelerate.
- 13:08Speaker 1: You've heard that from US quite a bit here on
- 13:09Speaker 1: this channel. We believe that XRP will be the next ETF.
- 13:13Speaker 1: I think that, along with Solana are the two that
- 13:16Speaker 1: are really kind of neck and neck. If you look
- 13:17Speaker 1: at some of the things that are happening with Solana.
- 13:20Speaker 1: Here's one from Andrew King. He's talking about the twenty
- 13:23Speaker 1: twenty five Soul ETF trade. Well, you got to look
- 13:25Speaker 1: at a couple of things. One, Soul has retraced most
- 13:28Speaker 1: of the post Trump election pump that we saw in November.
- 13:31Speaker 1: Almost a given sole ETF approved for this year. I
- 13:35Speaker 1: think if not in Q one, yeah, okay, it could
- 13:37Speaker 1: be in January to March, I feel like it could
- 13:38Speaker 1: be early and then no gross greyscale overhang like you
- 13:42Speaker 1: had with the so I agree with that. And then also,
- 13:44Speaker 1: Solana valued relatively cheap compared to its network usage. I
- 13:48Speaker 1: don't know it's still a two hundred dollars token. I think, yes,
- 13:51Speaker 1: that is a good value. Based on the fact that
- 13:53Speaker 1: we've seen Salona hit two sixty this year or last
- 13:56Speaker 1: year early last year, the opportunity is there. We're definitely
- 14:00Speaker 1: seeing a nice significant move on Solana. So if you
- 14:03Speaker 1: haven't been in Solona very long or at all, maybe
- 14:06Speaker 1: this is the time to do it. Solons are passed
- 14:09Speaker 1: other chains in yearly nft adoptions, so dominance was thirty
- 14:12Speaker 1: eight percent one point six million users, another big win
- 14:16Speaker 1: for Solana. Also, they're outpassing Outpacing, ETH and Base in
- 14:21Speaker 1: combined twenty four hour deck training volume. So that's something
- 14:23Speaker 1: that continues to see because that opens up the opportunity
- 14:26Speaker 1: of the DeFi space. That's more of a global phenomenon
- 14:29Speaker 1: that I think affects the price of these tokens as well.
- 14:32Speaker 1: And remember we haven't really heard a lot about AI
- 14:35Speaker 1: agents within Solana. Well here, of course, was talking about
- 14:39Speaker 1: where AI agents might be coming, and Solana retweeted this
- 14:42Speaker 1: or actually responded to it and said agentic apps season
- 14:46Speaker 1: seems to be here, so maybe they've got something brewing
- 14:49Speaker 1: with that. You've got a couple of things that you've
- 14:51Speaker 1: got to look at. One, of course, is Solana Agent Kit.
- 14:53Speaker 1: This is their new AI agent protocol, and this is
- 14:57Speaker 1: most likely going to set it up for Solana to
- 14:59Speaker 1: start to see a big move on this. Remember we've
- 15:01Speaker 1: shown this before, is that there's a lot of AI
- 15:05Speaker 1: agents right now, mostly on Base obviously because of virtuals protocol,
- 15:08Speaker 1: but then you've got Avalanche playing into this. Now, could
- 15:11Speaker 1: Solana start to make a pole position run with AI
- 15:15Speaker 1: agents because it seems as though most of these platforms
- 15:17Speaker 1: are moving very very quickly. Solana could be right there
- 15:20Speaker 1: in the middle of it. Salona Mobile's new phone, Salona Seker.
- 15:23Speaker 1: We've talked about this one quite a bit. It's going
- 15:25Speaker 1: to enable users to generate tokenized AI agents on the
- 15:28Speaker 1: platform of the mobile device. That I think will be
- 15:30Speaker 1: a huge move that could break out into maybe something
- 15:35Speaker 1: that could reshift the mobile platforms out there, and what
- 15:39Speaker 1: I mean by not necessary platforms the landscape and what
- 15:42Speaker 1: that might look like for mobile computing, but even more
- 15:45Speaker 1: so mobile use in the coming years. A couple of
- 15:48Speaker 1: projects that we're watching very close on this. This one,
- 15:50Speaker 1: of course is ALI, which is artificial Liquid intelligence, and
- 15:55Speaker 1: you can kind of see this is on the year
- 15:58Speaker 1: versus or the all time versus the I you can
- 16:00Speaker 1: kind of take a look at the market cap kind
- 16:01Speaker 1: of floating in and out. This one may be on
- 16:04Speaker 1: the move as well. A couple of key factors. There
- 16:06Speaker 1: other ones that we're watching right now sincoin. They're also
- 16:09Speaker 1: somehow related to the agent kit. This was another one
- 16:12Speaker 1: that could play into this right now. A thirty one
- 16:13Speaker 1: point seven million dollar market cap, so not a big
- 16:16Speaker 1: token out there, volume holding it around seven million on
- 16:19Speaker 1: the twenty four So something to consider if you're looking
- 16:22Speaker 1: at AI agents as one of the angles to look
- 16:25Speaker 1: at a strategy going into the rest of this bull market.
- 16:28Speaker 1: And I think the real factor going forward, guys is
- 16:31Speaker 1: how does the quantitative easoning match up with what's happening
- 16:37Speaker 1: within the macro scenarios that are going to be facing us,
- 16:40Speaker 1: both in interest effect on new business and the inflation.
- 16:44Speaker 1: So inflation of course is possibly going to slow down
- 16:47Speaker 1: the economy, and I think that's the factor we got
- 16:49Speaker 1: to keep a very close eye on for sure as
- 16:51Speaker 1: we get into the first quarter of twenty twenty five.
- 16:54Speaker 1: All Right, if you guys are not part of the
- 16:55Speaker 1: diamond circle, get in on that. It's a very easy
- 16:58Speaker 1: thing to do, click the link down below it's and
- 17:00Speaker 1: of course follow me out there on x at Paul Baron.
- 17:02Speaker 1: We'll catch you next time right here on Techpath