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Will the Jaguars Make the Playoffs? · Duval Daily: A Jacksonville Jaguars Podcast

0:07
[SPEAKER_00]: Jacksonville, Jaguar's fans, welcome in to Duval, daily presented by jingag.com.
0:10
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm Jordan Luda, thanks so much for being here Thursday, November 6th, right now we're talking about the Jaguars and the rest of their season.
0:15
[SPEAKER_00]: They're basically halfway through the year.
0:18
[SPEAKER_00]: There's 17 games now.
0:20
[SPEAKER_00]: They've played eight of their games.
0:22
[SPEAKER_00]: It is week 10.
0:25
[SPEAKER_00]: There's 18 weeks in the season.
0:27
[SPEAKER_00]: So technically halfway through the Texans game will be halfway through the season.
0:31
[SPEAKER_00]: But for all intents and purposes, they're basically halfway through right now.
0:36
[SPEAKER_00]: in their five and three.
0:37
[SPEAKER_00]: The question is, will they make the playoffs?
0:40
[SPEAKER_00]: What's going to happen over the next nine games?
0:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Are they going to win the games they should win?
0:47
[SPEAKER_00]: Are they going to lose some games they should win?
0:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Are they going to beat some teams that may be on paper?
0:51
[SPEAKER_00]: You don't think they'll beat.
0:53
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to go through the rest of the schedule.
0:55
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to talk about what the Jack Wars are doing well right now, what they're struggling with, how things might play out, moving forward.
1:02
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm really excited to look ahead here.
1:03
[SPEAKER_00]: I appreciate y'all being here.
1:05
[SPEAKER_00]: If you enjoy the content, please like and subscribe.
1:07
[SPEAKER_00]: And I'll just check out Genjack.com.
1:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Pick up some new Duval gear, help support our channel here and look good while doing it.
1:14
[SPEAKER_00]: A lot of fun stuff up on the site right now.
1:16
[SPEAKER_00]: And every order does come with.
1:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Well, these little guys love those.
1:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Jaguars, we'll look at this schedule, but first we're going to talk about what they're doing well right now.
1:32
[SPEAKER_00]: One thing they have done consistently well throughout the year is
1:37
[SPEAKER_00]: stop the run.
1:38
[SPEAKER_00]: They have one of the best run defenses in football, bar none, like without question.
1:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Their run defense has been pretty much stellar every single week, the one game where their opponent really ran on them with any consistency was against the chiefs.
1:55
[SPEAKER_00]: They were able to win that game in a crazy wild, absolutely, you know, shoot out of a game.
2:00
[SPEAKER_00]: But overall,
2:02
[SPEAKER_00]: You look at the Jaguars and their team stats on defense against the run.
2:07
[SPEAKER_00]: It's among the best in the league and they're averaging 3.8 yards per carry allowed.
2:17
[SPEAKER_00]: If you take away what running back or excuse me what quarterbacks have done, it's more like 3.5 yards per carry against opposing running backs.
2:25
[SPEAKER_00]: They're only allowing 86.9 yards per game on the ground and for context, that's the
2:32
[SPEAKER_00]: yards per game allowed on the ground in the NFL right now, when it comes to the average allowed, they're at fifth 3.8.
2:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So I'm really impressed.
2:45
[SPEAKER_00]: When you look at the rushing touchdowns they've allowed.
2:47
[SPEAKER_00]: They've only allowed four rushing touchdowns so far this year.
2:50
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the fourth best number in the league.
2:53
[SPEAKER_00]: They're punching the ball out fairly well.
2:55
[SPEAKER_00]: That has slowed down a little bit as of late, but still doing a good job there.
2:59
[SPEAKER_00]: So their run defense is really good.
3:01
[SPEAKER_00]: And what does that do?
3:02
[SPEAKER_00]: That helps you in theory.
3:07
[SPEAKER_00]: uh... force opponents to get into third-in-long situation now the problem is the past defense hasn't been nearly as consistent as the run defense and and uh... they need to improve there and it's going to be a little difficult to improve when you have air gmerry on the sideline for the next three weeks at minimum uh... it is good that deven Lloyd appears to be back he practiced fully on Wednesday and said he's going to be good to go this weekend he'd been dealing with the calf
3:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't want to say that Devin Lloyd being out has caused the Jaguar's defense to slip entirely.
3:42
[SPEAKER_00]: But I do think that there's some correlation there.
3:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I absolutely do.
3:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that having him out there gives them so much more versatility, consistency, and just playmaking ability.
3:53
[SPEAKER_00]: from a pass rush standpoint, run defense and in coverage.
3:57
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, I think in Devon Lloyd back out there will be huge for this football team.
4:01
[SPEAKER_00]: You would love to see Eric Murray back, but that's not gonna happen for at least three weeks.
4:05
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's where you're at there.
4:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I do think Greg Newsom and Buster Brown can do a pretty good job as your outside corners.
4:13
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll Jordan Lewis play this week, don't know, but the good news is you do have Jarian Jones at the very least who is a feisty
4:23
[SPEAKER_00]: hardworking, athletic, nickel, who I think can come in and at least perform at a reasonably high level for you.
4:31
[SPEAKER_00]: Past rush-wise, it needs to get going.
4:34
[SPEAKER_00]: Opposing teams have been dinking and dunking on them specifically against the Rams and the Raiders.
4:44
[SPEAKER_00]: Those two teams were getting the ball out so quick against the Jaguars.
4:47
[SPEAKER_00]: It's difficult to get something going as a past rush.
4:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Still, you've got to be able to affect the quarterback a little bit more against the Seahawks.
4:56
[SPEAKER_00]: It was a little bit of a different story because the Seahawks were just going into 13 personnel a lot and you just weren't really prepared for that.
5:07
[SPEAKER_00]: The Jaguar is weren't ready for that.
5:09
[SPEAKER_00]: They figured it out later in the game.
5:10
[SPEAKER_00]: They were able to get rushed with blitzing and that helped them stop the Seahawks for the most part in the second half after the first drive for the second half.
5:18
[SPEAKER_00]: They completely shut down the Seahawks offense.
5:23
[SPEAKER_00]: They've got to figure out how to force teams to not be able to get the ball out so quickly.
5:32
[SPEAKER_00]: They've got to, and, you know, Campanile said today, you've got to be a little bit, you know, less cushion, a little bit more aggressive, maybe some more zone match concepts, the man
5:53
[SPEAKER_00]: You know, Buster Brown's not a man corner.
5:55
[SPEAKER_00]: He's just not.
5:56
[SPEAKER_00]: And you try to go man to man against Brock Bowers last week.
5:59
[SPEAKER_00]: That's not going to work very well.
6:00
[SPEAKER_00]: Like so, it just been stuck in between a rock and a hard place at times.
6:04
[SPEAKER_00]: And again, going back to the line-backer position without Devon Lloyd, that's been a little bit difficult in coverage, safety without Eric Murray and they'd love to have Caleb Branson, but he's not walking through that door this year.
6:16
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know if you might start trying right on Lane a little bit.
6:18
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't know.
6:19
[SPEAKER_00]: But that's where they're at there.
6:24
[SPEAKER_00]: But the past rush, I think, can get heated up and you saw it get heated up when the opposing team felt like they really had to drop back and use that drop-back passing game to win the game.
6:35
[SPEAKER_00]: That happened against the Raiders and you see Josh Hines Allen get heated up.
6:39
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's what they've got to do.
6:41
[SPEAKER_00]: They've got to start playing with more leads too.
6:43
[SPEAKER_00]: I mean, outside of the Raiders game, which was a back and forth game.
6:50
[SPEAKER_00]: The previous three weeks, they had been playing from behind against the chiefs.
6:55
[SPEAKER_00]: They were down 14 points at one point, against the C-Ox, they were down 14 points at one point.
6:59
[SPEAKER_00]: Against the Rams, they were down by 14 plus points a lot.
7:02
[SPEAKER_00]: So you've got to get yourself into better game script and be a little bit more aggressive and coverage in my opinion to be able to get the past rush going a little bit more.
7:16
[SPEAKER_00]: Offensively.
7:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Similar to defense, they are running the ball well.
7:21
[SPEAKER_00]: They are running the ball very well.
7:23
[SPEAKER_00]: And you absolutely do love to see that.
7:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Travis ETN playing great football.
7:28
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Bacial Tutan is playing tough football, playing pretty good as a backup right now, despite not getting a ton of carries.
7:35
[SPEAKER_00]: And then Lee Quint Allen, every time he's out there, it seems like he's hitting somebody, which you love to see.
7:39
[SPEAKER_00]: Offensively on the run game, the Jaguars
7:46
[SPEAKER_00]: They're rushing for where they're, they're rushing for 123 yards a game and they've had a couple, couple where they haven't really,
7:54
[SPEAKER_00]: been able to put up a ton of rushing yards.
7:56
[SPEAKER_00]: They haven't run the ball of ton and some of those games where they've been down again by like 14 plus points.
8:03
[SPEAKER_00]: But they're average and four and a half yards of carry.
8:06
[SPEAKER_00]: They're average and 123 yards of game on the ground.
8:08
[SPEAKER_00]: Travis ETN's playing great.
8:09
[SPEAKER_00]: They have nine rushing touchdowns, Trevor Lawrence has had a big impact on those rushing touchdowns for sure.
8:14
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that their team can feel confident in their running game.
8:19
[SPEAKER_00]: And a lot of that has to do with Liam Cohen, a lot of it has to do with the new attitude of the offensive line, some of the new talent, and a lot of it again goes to Travis C.T.N.
8:28
[SPEAKER_00]: who's playing great football.
8:30
[SPEAKER_00]: So good host to him.
8:32
[SPEAKER_00]: Passing game-wise, bottom line, it's been inconsistent.
8:35
[SPEAKER_00]: You've seen inconsistencies from the quarterback, you've seen inconsistencies from the offensive line.
8:40
[SPEAKER_00]: Pass protection, you've seen inconsistencies from the
8:43
[SPEAKER_00]: Receivers, you've seen inconsistency pre-snap with the ability to get lined up properly.
8:49
[SPEAKER_00]: So yeah, the passing game has still been a major major work in progress.
8:54
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think you have seen progress from the passing game, specifically the quarterback over the last month, again, we talked about this earlier, but you've seen Trevor Lawrence over the last four games, eight touchdowns, two interceptions, he's average 275 total yards
9:12
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not turning the ball over.
9:13
[SPEAKER_00]: He's not putting the ball in harm's way at ton.
9:15
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously, yes, I know that he did one time against the ramps.
9:18
[SPEAKER_00]: Or excuse me against the Raiders.
9:20
[SPEAKER_00]: And then...
9:22
[SPEAKER_00]: He's also starting to really push the ball and have some more success pushing the ball.
9:27
[SPEAKER_00]: I think Jacobi Myers can definitely be a stabilizing force for the passing offense.
9:33
[SPEAKER_00]: I really do.
9:34
[SPEAKER_00]: You won't Brian Thomas Jr. back, but he's been inconsistent.
9:37
[SPEAKER_00]: You want Travis Hunter back.
9:38
[SPEAKER_00]: He's been fairly consistent when you targeted him.
9:41
[SPEAKER_00]: Parker Washington, outside of the Rams game, has done a good job for the Jaguars, Tim Patrick.
9:48
[SPEAKER_00]: looks to be healthy.
9:50
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think you've got some pieces there to try to, you know, continue to grow.
9:55
[SPEAKER_00]: So overall, I think the jag wars are doing a really good job running the ball and stopping the run.
10:00
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that they're a work-in progress with their passing offense that's trending in the right direction.
10:05
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you've obviously got to stop beating yourself with pre-snap penalties.
10:09
[SPEAKER_00]: Defensively, the past coverage, I think if they can get that squared away a little bit more,
10:18
[SPEAKER_00]: they have pieces to be better than they have been.
10:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that they're going to be a elite with their safety group right now.
10:24
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's where I'm at there.
10:27
[SPEAKER_00]: Special teams wise, they got to do a better job covering kicks.
10:30
[SPEAKER_00]: Cam Little came back in a big way.
10:32
[SPEAKER_00]: This past week I thought Logan Cook did well to in multiple facets of the game.
10:36
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's where I have the Jack Wars
10:40
[SPEAKER_00]: you know, in all phases.
10:42
[SPEAKER_00]: Now looking at their upcoming schedule, actually, let's look at the standings.
10:46
[SPEAKER_00]: So the jackwares are 5 and 3.
10:48
[SPEAKER_00]: They're in second place in the AFC South.
10:50
[SPEAKER_00]: The cults are 7 and 2.
10:51
[SPEAKER_00]: They're in first place in the AFC South.
10:54
[SPEAKER_00]: They're like a game in a half ahead of the jackwares, I guess you would say,
10:57
[SPEAKER_00]: They've played one more game than the Jags.
11:00
[SPEAKER_00]: The Jags have one more loss than the Colts.
11:03
[SPEAKER_00]: The Colts have a more difficult upcoming schedule than the Jag Wars do.
11:06
[SPEAKER_00]: The Jag Wars internal goal is to win their division.
11:10
[SPEAKER_00]: James Gladstone has not shied away from that.
11:12
[SPEAKER_00]: He's talked about that multiple times.
11:14
[SPEAKER_00]: When meeting with the media, the goal is for the Jag Wars to win the division.
11:17
[SPEAKER_00]: They are within striking distance of doing that.
11:20
[SPEAKER_00]: And in fact, they control their own destiny because they play the Colts twice.
11:25
[SPEAKER_00]: Now, if you're not able to win your division, you're talking about trying to make the wild card, the Jaguar is currently R and 7th place in the wild card.
11:32
[SPEAKER_00]: The team ahead of them at six place, the Los Angeles Chargers is a team on their schedule.
11:38
[SPEAKER_00]: You also have the Broncos at 7 and 2, they're leading the AFC West.
11:43
[SPEAKER_00]: They are also on the Jaguar schedule.
11:44
[SPEAKER_00]: So they have an opportunity to make up games against teams ahead of them in the playoff race, including the Colts, Broncos and Chargers.
11:52
[SPEAKER_00]: They already beat the chiefs, the Texans are currently, and the chiefs are in eighth place.
11:57
[SPEAKER_00]: The Texans are currently in ninth place, and they play them this weekend with no CJ Strahd, so they have an opportunity there.
12:03
[SPEAKER_00]: Outside of that, no one is really within striking distance, so the Jaguar's 100% control their own destiny, which is a good place to be in half way through the season, a really good place.
12:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I look at,
12:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I look at the teams that are in competition with them for the seven seed.
12:28
[SPEAKER_00]: Obviously the chiefs are made.
12:30
[SPEAKER_00]: If you don't win your division, even though the chiefs are five and four and you beat them, you do have the tiebreaker against them which is big, they are a major threat.
12:38
[SPEAKER_00]: I would be just shocked if the chiefs don't make the playoffs.
12:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So who's gonna fall out, right?
12:45
[SPEAKER_00]: I could still see the Steelers falling out,
12:51
[SPEAKER_00]: win games as Mike Tomlin teams tend to do.
12:55
[SPEAKER_00]: The Chargers, they are having difficulty with their offensive tackle situation right now in a big way.
13:01
[SPEAKER_00]: There's some deficiencies on that team, but they do have obviously some great aspects of that team.
13:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're well coached.
13:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that they've got some receivers making plays just in Herbert is a very good quarterback.
13:12
[SPEAKER_00]: They've got some dudes on defense as well, but and a really good defensive coordinator.
13:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't see the bills falling out.
13:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't see the Broncos falling all the way out.
13:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Patriots are seven and two unbelievably, that's just one of the stories of the season, Colts as well.
13:28
[SPEAKER_00]: So I think that the Jaguars goal should be to win the division because if you don't win your division, there's a good chance you're not among the top seven teams at the end of the year in the AFC.
13:41
[SPEAKER_00]: So,
13:42
[SPEAKER_00]: got Murray wine and outside the door right now, somebody could help me out with that, but that's okay.
13:50
[SPEAKER_00]: Schedule, remaining schedule.
13:52
[SPEAKER_00]: We're talking about all this stuff.
13:53
[SPEAKER_00]: What are they actually going to do?
13:54
[SPEAKER_00]: They're at Houston this week.
13:55
[SPEAKER_00]: They have opportunity to sweep the Texans for the first time since 2017.
14:00
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're going to do it.
14:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Not making any, you know, I'm not holding back.
14:06
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm not being reserved about that one.
14:07
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're going to be Houston and Houston.
14:08
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're the better football team.
14:10
[SPEAKER_00]: I think they're the better football team, even with CJ Stroud on the field.
14:13
[SPEAKER_00]: We're going to preview that game hot and heavy, so I'm not going to go all the way into it.
14:17
[SPEAKER_00]: But I think the Texans have a really big deficiency on their offensive line.
14:20
[SPEAKER_00]: I don't think that their play calling is improved very much.
14:22
[SPEAKER_00]: They have had some decent days on the ground as of late, but mostly against bad run defenses.
14:28
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the Jaguars have a very good run defense.
14:30
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the Jaguars are going to shut down the Houston Texans offense, enough and score enough against a really good Houston Texans defense.
14:36
[SPEAKER_00]: That might be a little banged up.
14:38
[SPEAKER_00]: We'll see how it ends up playing out injury wise to win that football game.
14:42
[SPEAKER_00]: So they're going to six and three in my opinion.
14:45
[SPEAKER_00]: Then you play the chargers and the cardinals.
14:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I have the, if I had to pick those two games, I would pick them to lose to the chargers and beat the cardinals, but I have them going one in one.
14:56
[SPEAKER_00]: I could see it going either way.
14:58
[SPEAKER_00]: Again, the chargers dealing with the offensive tackle situation, both of your starters, which are kind of like the foundational pieces of your team, are out, really sucks for them.
15:09
[SPEAKER_00]: I feel bad for their fans for sure, but it is what it is.
15:12
[SPEAKER_00]: They're having to deal with that right now.
15:14
[SPEAKER_00]: And then the cardinals, Benchink,
15:18
[SPEAKER_00]: there they're just they're not a great team right now.
15:22
[SPEAKER_00]: They're not so they could go to and I mean they could win their next three games they could go on a four game winning streak and then play the Titans at Tennessee.
15:31
[SPEAKER_00]: I think it would be bullish to put the jackores on a five game winning streak.
15:36
[SPEAKER_00]: but it's possible.
15:37
[SPEAKER_00]: I'm going to say though, the Jaguars beat the Texans.
15:41
[SPEAKER_00]: They go one-and-one against the Chargers and Cardinals, and that puts them at seven and four, and then they beat the Titans in Tennessee.
15:48
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the Titans are really, really bad right now.
15:51
[SPEAKER_00]: They're some talent here and there, but they're really bad.
15:53
[SPEAKER_00]: They're in a bad situation, bad spot.
15:56
[SPEAKER_00]: So the Jaguars get to eight and four, and then they play the Colts in Jacksonville,
16:01
[SPEAKER_00]: December 7th, Colta haven't won in Jacksonville, and over a decade, I'm going to have the Jaguars winning that football game, 8 and 4.
16:14
[SPEAKER_00]: The schedule, it's shaping up to be very, very, very rule for the Jaguars.
16:19
[SPEAKER_00]: Then you have the Jets.
16:23
[SPEAKER_00]: Is that a board?
16:24
[SPEAKER_00]: Or is that nine and four?
16:26
[SPEAKER_00]: Texan's six and three chargers six and four Cardinals seven and four Titans eight and four Colts nine and four Then you have the New York Jets at home Ten and four
16:42
[SPEAKER_00]: At Denver, I'll give that to the Broncos 10 and 5.
16:45
[SPEAKER_00]: At any, I'll give that to the Colts 10 and 6.
16:49
[SPEAKER_00]: Versus 10 and C in Jacksonville.
16:51
[SPEAKER_00]: Potentially, you're clenching your division.
16:53
[SPEAKER_00]: Potentially, you're clenching a playoff spot.
16:55
[SPEAKER_00]: Whatever it might be, 11 and 6.
17:01
[SPEAKER_00]: That's where I'm at with the Jaguars right now.
17:05
[SPEAKER_00]: Before the buy,
17:06
[SPEAKER_00]: or during the buy, we did an exercise where I looked at the upcoming settle, I had them at 9 and 8.
17:12
[SPEAKER_00]: I had them beating the raiders, I had them losing to the Texans.
17:15
[SPEAKER_00]: So that's one big difference.
17:17
[SPEAKER_00]: I also had them getting swept by the cults.
17:20
[SPEAKER_00]: That's the other difference.
17:21
[SPEAKER_00]: I have them winning one game against the cults.
17:23
[SPEAKER_00]: So, it's really the divisional matchups that I'm flipping on here a little bit, because I think you saw some issues with the cults against the Steelers for sure.
17:32
[SPEAKER_00]: I think you saw Daniel Jones come back down to Earth.
17:35
[SPEAKER_00]: I think that if you can slow down their running game, they can have some major issues.
17:41
[SPEAKER_00]: That's where I'm at.
17:42
[SPEAKER_00]: I think the Jaguars 11 and 6.
17:44
[SPEAKER_00]: I think if you think they get swept by the cults, 10 and 7.
17:48
[SPEAKER_00]: You get sweeped by the cults that puts them in a position certainly to probably win the division.
17:54
[SPEAKER_00]: If you split with the cults, I think that it's anybody's game, because the cults have a difficult schedule down the stretch, playing some really good football teams.
18:02
[SPEAKER_00]: Let me know where y'all are at.
18:03
[SPEAKER_00]: And if you enjoy the content, please like and subscribe.
18:06
[SPEAKER_00]: Y'all have a good one.