Latest / Professional Ag Marketing Podcast / What Happened to Cattle? Plus Corn, Hogs & China Trade | Opening Look Monday, November 2nd 2026

Transcript

What Happened to Cattle? Plus Corn, Hogs & China Trade | Opening Look Monday, November 2nd 2026 · Professional Ag Marketing Podcast

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: Trading commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Hello world and good morning.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: From our broadcast desk, this is the opening look for Monday, the 2nd of November, 2026.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Nathan.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Today we turn our focus to the quiet engine of American commerce, the vast agricultural landscape and the high-stakes trade of the mercantile pits.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: In the next five minutes, we shall dissect the latest overnight price movements, examine the shifting tides of speculative fund positioning, and report on a newly revealed partnership between Washington's agricultural and space agencies, alongside a critical analysis of China's multi-billion dollar trade commitments.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: First, the headlines.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_00: We begin on the trading floors of Chicago, where market participants are actively balancing the final stages of autumn harvest against a changing global demand picture.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: Overnight, January soybeans found themselves under light selling pressure, drifting down a cent and a half to trade at$12.33 per bushel.
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_00: Conversely, December corn is showing quiet strength in early trading, clawing back three cents to stand at$4.50.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: On the livestock boards, Friday's session brought a sharp and decisive correction to the close out the month.
• 1:26
  SPEAKER_00: December lean hogs gave back some recent gains, sliding$1.12 to settle at$58.87.5 cents.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: Yet, even with that setback, the long-term outlook remains resilient as deferred spring and summer contracts of 2027 continue to hold a firm premium, reflecting broader optimism for the year ahead.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: The cattle complex, however, suffered a severe blow on Friday.
• 1:53
  SPEAKER_00: December live cattle plummeted five dollars and thirty-five cents to cross the finish line at two hundred twenty dollars and ninety-five cents.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: November feeder cattle fared even worse, enduring a steep eight dollars seventy cent drop to settle at three hundred thirty-seven and seventy-seven and a half cents.
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_00: We turn now to the underlying fundamentals highlighted by Friday afternoon's release of the government's Commitment of Traders report.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: The data reveals a significant retreat by large speculative funds.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: In corn, managed money aggressively liquidated over 90,000 contracts, slashing their net long position down to 55,9143 contracts.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: Speculators in soybeans followed a similar script, shedding more than 21,000 contracts to leave their net long standing at 185,400.
• 2:48
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, the bearish sentiment in the pork complex has reached historic proportions.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Managed money expanded their record net short position in lean hogs by nearly 6,000 contracts, bringing their total short to 47,109 contracts.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: This speculative pessimism comes as wholesale meat values face seasonal headwinds.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: Friday's USD report pegged the port cutout at 59 cents lower at$70.10 per hundredweight.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: In the beef sector, wholesale prices diverged across a moderate volume of 101 loads.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: Choice box beef slipped$2.62 to stand at$364.66.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: Conversely, select box beef on minor support, ticking up$35 to$351.98.
• 3:39
  SPEAKER_00: This narrows the choice to select spread to$12.68, reflecting a slight easing in the premium, buyers are paying for higher grade cuts.
• 3:49
  SPEAKER_00: In Macro News, a newly published Reuters article of customs data reveals that China's agricultural purchases, excluding soybeans, are on track for a seven-year low.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: Despite Beijing's high profile pledge to import$17 billion in non-soybean agricultural goods annually starting this year, actual imports reached just$7.2 billion through September.
• 4:16
  SPEAKER_00: While soybean shipments remain robust, weak domestic demand and stiff competition in South American corn and sorghum have severely limited other U.S.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: farm exports, raising serious questions about whether state directed buying will be required to meet the trade targets.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, a unique technological alliance is taking shape to improve the accuracy of domestic crop reporting.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: The USDA and NASA have officially signed a memorandum of understanding to integrate satellite Earth observations and advanced geospatial analysis into agricultural statistics.
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: This joint effort signed by EG Secretary Brooke Rollins and NASA administrator Jared Isaacman follows a recent NAS correction to its September crop report, which suffered from incorrect acreage weights in Kansas and Nebraska.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: The new partnership aims to leverage space age technology to prevent such statistical errors and provide more reliable data to the nation's producers.
• 5:16
  SPEAKER_00: As the opening bells prepare to sound across the exchanges, the American farmer and rancher once again face a world of shifting global alliances, speculative tides, and technological progress.
• 5:28
  SPEAKER_00: This has been the opening look.