Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Banks Just Warned Big Clients... + Stock Market News 11 June 2024

Transcript

Banks Just Warned Big Clients... + Stock Market News 11 June 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: The microphone might help Felix here, and welcome to this live stream.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: As JP Morgan warns us sternly, we're going to look at that and much, much more what's about to happen today, tomorrow, how we make money out of it, some trade ideas, apple, elon's threats against Apple, and much, much more.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I thank you for tuning in and I've got to fire up Winston, make a warm up.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Winston has pooped Winston and I did a nice hike today and he's properly, properly exhausted.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Actually, I might have a photo for you to share with you there in a second, if I can find it.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Where was he today?
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: I don't know where it is, but yeah, he was pretty exhausted.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: We had to cool him down in a few little waterfalls, which is always nice.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Let's get cracking, let's get winning, let's get making some money, and I'm going to share my screen with you.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Here it is JP Morgan warns of a shock to stock markets come from the CPI and Fed, which is what's happening tomorrow.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow is the day of all days and we're going to run through that.
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: See what those scenarios are, how we can protect ourselves from it, how we're making money from it and everything else.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: But before we get to that, if you want to see how we make money, and last week, in June, so far we've done quite nicely, haven't we in June, although we've been doing been pretty consistent?
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: This year so far, $5,399 out of a $30,000 portfolio.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: That's what we did last week, trading half an hour every day, 30 minutes a day.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: And if you want to learn that system, that strategy not promising returns, but I'm promising you to show you exactly what I do and how I do it then come and join me today, in like 11 hours at phoenixfriendsorg slash webinar.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: And it says 10 am New York time.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: That is wrong, isn't it?
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: It's 8 am New York time, oh dear.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: 8 pm New York time, even 8 pm New York time.
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: Well, if you go to the thingy-ma-jiggy, you will get the right banner, wrong banner, oh dear.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: What do we do about that?
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: That's a bit of a mystery, isn't it?
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Well, let's use this one.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: We've got one here That'll do the trick.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: At least there isn't the wrong date on it.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, seriously, come and join me.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: It'll be fun.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: You can ask me all the difficult questions you always wanted to ask.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: And if you're thinking, oh, felix, you could have just made this up.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Some tracker you made up.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: True, could have made it up.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Here's my portfolio.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Here are the transactions.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: All right, take a screenshot of this Starts.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Scroll down, take a screenshot If you want to see the top of it.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Take a screenshot from me Now, you know.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: If you want to work it out yourself, we do.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: The whole point here is we're transparent.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Now let's get on to some news, then.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: This is what JPMorgan Chase is coming out with today.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: They're saying Well, first of all, the options market is saying we're going to move about 1.3% up or down this week by Friday.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: And I can show you in a second where you can look that up.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: And in fact, let me show you right now.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: That's always useful.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: You go to options watch.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: You click on the visualizer.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: I'm blocking that, aren't I?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Where's my head?
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: There we go, you go and click on the visualizer and you type in SPX, say Just the S&P 500.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: And it'll open the chart for you in good time.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: And you click at the top here on the 14th, which is Friday.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Right, the date's Friday.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: You can zoom out a bit if you wish, but it doesn't really particularly.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you've.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: You can zoom out a bit if you wish, but it doesn't really particularly.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you got to zoom out a bit and what do you see then?
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: You see that blue zone here, that blue area there.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: That is your expected move.
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: So the market is basically saying the market is saying we're going to be between 5,450 on the top end and 5,275, let's say in that zone by the end of the week.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: Now you know more than probably 99% of people, right.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: So go get yourself a little subscription there to trial, to OptionsWatch.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: At least it's free, and I spent a whole day today working on OptionsWatch with my partner on this.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: I've got some really freaking cool stuff coming up in the next two to three weeks so I'll put out some announcements on that.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: But yeah, very exciting stuff coming up Now.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: Basically, cpi could be reversed by Powell's press conference entirely possible.
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: So it could be that CPI comes in a little lower but Powell comes in a bit more hawkish, not promising us any rate cuts before November, and therefore the market might still be a bit disappointing.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: So this is what JP Morgan says is going to happen.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: They say basically the most likely outcome is that inflation comes in sort of 0.25 to 0.35, and then the market would go up a percentage point if it comes in on the low end of that, or it would go up about three quarters of a percentage point if we come in at the high end of that.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: So that's sort of your Wednesday range, right, plus or minus a percentage point, just if you want to be slightly simpler about it.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: That's basically what they're saying.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: If it's an outlier event, you're going to get maybe a 2% move, which is huge, right.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: So that's the way the big banks are looking at this and you can prepare for that, right, you can hedge for that.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: You can make money on that, like we're doing, for example, on Tesla for the week.
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: We're doing a really funky trade where we think, well, if there's a big move, we'll make a lot of money.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: So you can do setups like that.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: Here's one, for example.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: It looks a little complicated.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: Basically, what we're saying is if Tesla moves up on Friday just a little bit to like 180, basically then we make a huge return on that little bit of risk that we've got there.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: So you could do some funky stuff with if you understand how to do so.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: Now, apple bit of a non-event yesterday, wasn't it?
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: We had big hopes, big announcements.
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: They wanted to convince the world that we all need new iPhones and that the new iPhone is going to be so freaking amazing that you definitely definitely have to buy it.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Johnny, I appreciate that.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: We've got some really cool stuff coming up there Just to tease a few things a lot of alerts coming up there.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: There'll be a separate product that'll allow us to track our trades.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Stock fundamentals are coming up.
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of cool stuff coming up there.
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: Now the AI announcement was sort of like well, we're going to have Apple intelligence and it's a partnership with OpenAI, so Microsoft's going.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Oh, and it's briefly mentioned a little bit, elon comes out and goes if you put that OpenAI thing on iPhones, I will ban iPhones from all my companies.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Seriously, he's not really a fan of OpenAI, is he?
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: He was part of that originally.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: There he is.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: If Apple integrates OpenAI at the OS level, then Apple devices will be banned at my company.
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: So that's an unacceptable security violation.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: He really doesn't like the OpenAI guys, although he was originally part of that pack.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Now here's a bit more news to cheer you up.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: Pimco warns of more US regional bank failures on property pay, and I might normally discount miserable headlines like that, but I've been saying it for over a year and yes, I agree.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Banks are selling the best assets they hold because they have to, and PIMCO has been nibbling on those and gobbling up the good stuff for the last 18 months, keeping rubbish regional banks afloat, but then, once they're left only with the rubbish, then that's when they start to collapse, right?
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: So, he says, expect more regional bank failures in the US because of a very high concentration of troubled commercial real estate loads on their books.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: The real wave of distress is just starting for lenders, from malls to offices, says Murray, and they're pretty big Pimco.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: And you might think, oh, it's not gonna happen.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: Well, it's the headline from Bloomberg today, new York City landlord to sell office building at roughly 67% discount, and this is not a one-off.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: This happens all the freaking time.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I don't really know what is that?
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: 321 West 44th Street, but they are paying less than $50 million for it, Whereas previously it was obviously 150 million, right?
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: So massive, massive write-offs.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Do you think the bank is going to get paid for the mortgage though?
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Of course not.
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: Of course not.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: There's not enough money for it.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: So the real estate crisis commercial real estate crisis is going to be a good one.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Is KRE a good reflection of regional banks, says Robert?
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: There.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a reasonable reflection of regional banks, I would say.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: You mean, is it something we should short sort of type thing?
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: The only thing with it is that there'll be bailouts and therefore it's a tough thing to trade.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: They're down, you know from last year.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: Banking crisis kicks in here, right, this was SVB failure and we haven't really recovered very much.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: We're kind of back to the beginning of that crisis, which also says a lot about regional banks.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: So could you make money out of it?
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know, just buy a put option or something.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I mean, they're very cheap.
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: If we go out say you went into August or something and it cost $165, if we tanked a little bit, yeah, you'd make some money.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: If you think we're going to go back down to the lows, you'd make like 300% or something.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: I'm not recommending this trade, obviously.
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: I'm just walking you through one and you can't really see it because my head's blocking it.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: Okay here.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: So if this was an August 16th trade, you bought a put option right where it is right now.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: It cost you 165 dollars here.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: If you went to these lows again here, you would in theory, but you'd make a 382 return again.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Not a trade recommendation.