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The Imperial Presidency and the Iran War w/ Matt Duss | The Time of Monsters with Jeet Heer · The Nation Podcasts

• 0:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: The old world is dying, the new world struggles to be born.
• 0:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: Now is the time of monsters.
• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: With those words from Grabshia, well, which is the time of monsters podcast.
• 0:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: Our deep here, the nation magazine, which is the sponsor of the podcast.
• 0:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: So this week, as like off into the past, we're gonna turn towards the least.
• 0:20
  [SPEAKER_01]: at American Foreign Policy in it, in particular, what seems like the cost of another major war.
• 0:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: Once again, welcome, friend of the program, Freak Upcast, Matt Das.
• 0:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: For the policy correspondent.
• 0:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, for the policy correspondent, for the program, as a story, figured off an advisor to progressive policy.
• 0:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Don't read, wow.
• 0:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: Okay, and on these matters.
• 0:49
  [SPEAKER_01]: So Matt, do you, I mean, let's just kind of start, like where research standing now, I know, there's like a huge, I think what Trump has called a vast, our motto, to the Middle East, which is like, like, I think one reason that's self-circuited, because it's like the biggest military buildup, since the invasion of Iraq in 2002, 2003.
• 1:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right, yeah, for once Trump isn't lying.
• 1:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, there is a vast armada.
• 1:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is, as you said, the biggest buildup of US military force in the region in over two decades, since they'll lead up to the Iraq war.
• 1:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: And this, you know, and what's concerning is like, it's very hard to imagine that this force of this size and all the resources and time it took to assemble it will not be used.
• 1:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right, this is, you know, perhaps the biggest check-offs gun.
• 1:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, act one that the world has ever seen and it is very, unfortunately, very likely that dome will be fired in, in, in future acts.
• 1:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump, you know, again, this is, you know, Trump started to talk about this a few months ago.
• 1:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: We had, of course, the June war, the 12-day war that Israel launched against
• 2:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: Iran last June and Trump came in for a couple days of bombing of the Iranian nuclear facilities declared that Iran's nuclear program had been obliterated.
• 2:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: This was of course false, and obviously false at the very beginning.
• 2:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: But now we know it's false because they are back to warning that Iran could have a nuclear weapon very soon.
• 2:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: But you know, Trump, there's no consistency here.
• 2:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump just lies about that before he's lying about.
• 2:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: But of course, and the fact that these two lies are a complete contradiction doesn't really matter what matters is that the U.S. is on the precipice of another illegal and very, very stupid and likely very disastrous war.
• 2:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I sort of take a little bit through, like in the terms of like what Trump is maybe thinking because I think what we have seen in the last decade is that he has a kind of preference for brutal displays of force, but has been worried.
• 3:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: like a long protracted wars, but this is like shaving up to be, you know, the exact thing that he actually like has consistently run against, which is the kind of forever wars with puts on the ground, I mean, or you know, like a possibility of large American casualties, right?
• 3:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: I think that there's been some reporting that he told the Pentagon, you know, he'd like to see like no American casualties of the, they told them, you know, quite ridiculously like, you know, we can't guarantee that, like, and so it's like, what exactly, I mean, in terms of like, mapping out Trump's own thinking about this, like it does seem like he's been, he's put himself in a physician.
• 3:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: where he's like going forward with the exact type of war that, you know, for all his flaws he has tried to avoid.
• 3:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
• 3:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, well, let's let's back up and just understand what is driving this.
• 3:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: What is the urgency here?
• 3:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: It is not the nuclear program because even though the nuclear program was not obliterated as Trump claimed it was damaged considerably.
• 4:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Iran still has a larger amount of highly enriched uranium.
• 4:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's unclear what
• 4:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: But that is not the urgency here.
• 4:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I hate, and I had bad news about the plight of the Iranian people who have been protesting for weeks, some of the largest protest in the history of the Iran, this, you know, the Islamic Republic, and being killed and repressed in the absolutely brutal and horrific ways.
• 4:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Donald Trump doesn't care about that.
• 4:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: It should be abundantly clear.
• 4:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't care about that.
• 4:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: What is driving this is Iran's reconstitution of its ballistic missile arsenal, which is to say a huge part of this is being driven by Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and his government.
• 4:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: Because that is a main concern of Israel.
• 4:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: Even when I was in Israel back in October and even then heard from Israel.
• 5:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: analysts which is just you know a few months after the tune war that Iran had already been reconstituting and rebuilding its arsenal and its ballistic missile capacity much much faster then they had suspected it would be able to and that's of course real concern because as we've seen Iran retaliates to attacks by launching these ballistic missiles at Israel
• 5:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, and I would know this go ahead.
• 5:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, yeah.
• 5:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: I was going to say like the actual like, um, uh, uh, the June war last year, uh, was a considerable cause of concern because I think one reason why it was only a 12 day war was that, uh, Israel and the United States were finding that as the war progressed.
• 5:41
  [SPEAKER_01]: Iranian missiles were getting better that, like, you know, the initial advantage that Israel had in terms of anti-wissel defense was waning and then the Iranians were able to get more and more of the missile soon.
• 5:57
  [SPEAKER_01]: So this is like, you know, like, an actual strategic like weakness.
• 6:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's right.
• 6:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, they were, you know, they, they were running out of interceptors, they were running out of, you know, the, the weapons they need to shoot down on the Iranian missiles and other drones, etc.
• 6:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I also have to say that the damage that these missiles did in Israel was not as, very widely reported because of Israeli censorship, but being there in Tel Aviv, you know, I saw an entire apartment block in downtown Tel Aviv, just demolished.
• 6:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, I spoke to, you know, Israeli colleagues, you know, one of whom
• 6:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: just really put it vividly.
• 6:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: He, you know, when those attacks came, they rushed down stairs.
• 6:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: They were three floors below ground in a parking garage.
• 6:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: And he said, when these things hit, you know, we're not talking about how math rock is.
• 6:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is something different.
• 6:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: These ballistic missiles are very, very serious.
• 6:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: And again, you could see that in downtown Tel Aviv.
• 6:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: So,
• 6:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: you know part of part of getting on this this our motto in place was again to have those resources and the capacity to defend against that.
• 7:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: But again part of what Israel's concern is is under Netanyahu you know since October 7 and this began with the Biden administration is that you know
• 7:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Israel has previously its policy for Gaza before October 7 was what they call mowing the lawn.
• 7:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now a deeply offensive term, people are not blades of grass, but their approach was listen, we'll keep Gaza locked up.
• 7:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: When we see something happening that we don't like, we'll strike, we'll bomb, we'll kill some people, kill some civilians, we'll be killed too.
• 7:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: But we'll diminish the threat, we'll quote unquote restore deterrence.
• 7:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then things will kind of
• 7:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, that is how they referred to that policy.
• 7:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: Their policy now is mowing the law in for the entire region, whether it's Lebanon, whether it's Yemen, whether it's Syria, and now for Iran.
• 7:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the their problem, at least Netanyahu, as he sees it, is that if Iran is able to rebuild its defensive missile capacity, that could constrain Israel's ability to mow the law, and which is to say that,
• 8:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's unacceptable for Netanyahu for Iran to have the ability to defend itself, which is an absolutely absurd, I'm sorry, security, you know, concept, alright, that's not one does not have to be a fan of the Islamic regime as I certainly am not.
• 8:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: to say that, you know, to deny any, to simply say that this country should not have any right to self defense is absolutely absurd or to just finish.
• 8:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: Oh, why be any, a reading in government, like, like, like, like, like, like, let's say that they became a democracy over at, like, tomorrow, there is more reading in government that would ever give up.
• 8:39
  [SPEAKER_01]: Sorry, I think I've heard of Eddie sort, Eddie or the world, I would give up on like a basic stuff.
• 8:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: And we've also, you know, just the final point on this to put it, I'll put it like this.
• 8:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: For the longest time we've heard, you know, this kind of refrain whenever Israel does something, whenever it strikes, Israel has the right to defend itself.
• 8:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: But the new approaches that only Israel has the right to defend itself.
• 9:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Lebanon does not.
• 9:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: Syria does not.
• 9:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yemen should not Iran must not.
• 9:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: It is just, it's absurd on its face and to say the least it is not a sustainable architecture for durable regional security, which is part of the reason that so many countries, even those that have become closer to Israel are very, very concerned about this state of affairs and oppose a new war with Iran.
• 9:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I don't know.
• 9:28
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think that's right, right.
• 9:30
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it is very noticeable.
• 9:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, you might have more thoughts on this, but like, it does seem like the sort of alliances that have long existed and we're perhaps strengthen by the Arab Spring and the usefulness of Israel in providing surveillance technology and repression.
• 9:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: the alliance between Israel and the sort of air butocracy, that seems to be drawn the way.
• 10:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: And right now, I mean, from what I can see, it's the only the UAE, that's kind of, you know, like in Israel's corner, that's like, you know, it doesn't seem like, you know, even like Saudi Arabia is, you know, getting, you know, real cold feet about this.
• 10:16
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, so, I mean, my, my larger crush is like, like, it's even like, you know, the Abraham Accords or anything like that's, like,
• 10:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: given, like, well, what you're saying is Israel's policy, which is that only they have the right to defend itself.
• 10:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
• 10:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I would say that the Abraham Accords, I mean, the big get for the Abraham Accords was always going to be Saudi Arabia, that was the big prize, and I think that's just completely off the table now.
• 10:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
• 10:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: NBS, again, not a huge fan of him, but he has been pretty clear that...
• 10:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: They cannot really consider it until there's a path forward, a real path forward for the Palestinians to end occupation and get to liberation.
• 10:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: And stay to it in a moment.
• 10:58
  [SPEAKER_00]: This Israeli government is simply not going to take any moves that way.
• 11:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, this is sort of been a rise of, I think very alarming, it's fairly common, you know, like you'd farther away, like about Pakistan and Turkey, which I mean, like how seriously should we take that?
• 11:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: Because I think like, you know, like a conflict between Israel and Turkey, which is a data line, you know, like raises all sorts of problems.
• 11:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's putting it lightly, yeah, but you see, you know, you have, you know, seen Israeli leaders like Bennett just a few weeks ago, like naming like Turkey is the new problem.
• 11:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: They are just kind of putting the ground laying the groundwork for just lots of future wars and future conflicts.
• 11:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I got to be clear, the United States has no interest in this.
• 11:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: The United States, you know, at least I think the majority of Americans are, you know, I believe that Israel should be safe from attack, but they do not believe that Israel should just, you know, with US, you know, that the US should be subsidizing Israel's role as kind of this aggressive regional military hedgehog island that uses force wherever and whenever it pleases.
• 12:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, and I would say like, even like, was in the Trump administration, like, the shoots, like, be sort of like, a cause for concern about this, like, I'm thinking of like, particularly, like, there does seem to be a commitment on the part of,
• 12:27
  [SPEAKER_01]: the Trump administration towards getting some sort of stability in Syria, and I think that like a lot of Israeli active actions like underwinds that, I certainly like trump himself, like you know for reasons that are like more corrupt than anything else, but like to does seem to, you know, but one of the state-of-the-good graces of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and you know like you know having
• 12:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: Israel bomb like a tar as I did like it goes against that.
• 12:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: So like I do you see like the Are these features Would you think that they would ever have any sort of consequences or do you think like the trepid restoration is pretty force square with Israel?
• 13:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, I think they they can have consequences.
• 13:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean as we saw in Israel struck cutter that you know precipitated the ceasefire.
• 13:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean that was kind of the moment
• 13:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: Then I think Qatar used pretty effectively to rally support and pressure on both Israel and the Trump administration more importantly to say, listen, this is crazy.
• 13:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: And of course, other countries Saudi Arabia and a bit more quietly, the Emirati, we absolutely do not want a situation where Israel is free to strike our capitals.
• 13:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Understandably.
• 13:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I don't see it really changing dramatically.
• 13:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think Trump doesn't really care about any of this.
• 13:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: He does, as you said, he's someone who's certainly not averse to using military force.
• 13:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: He doesn't want to do this.
• 13:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's not anti-war, he's anti-long war.
• 13:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, and he doesn't want to get drawn into long, expensive, wasteful conflicts he wants to do short, you know, glorious operations that he can, you know, then high five and accept everybody's praise.
• 14:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, regardless of whether they work or not, he will of course always claim that.
• 14:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: But unless Israel does something that really draws the U.S. in like in a way that is completely undeniable.
• 14:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: And this may be interesting, I mean, this, you know, I think it has people understand that we are in this situation, you know, not only because of Israel, but in large part at this moment, because of Israeli concerns, not US concerns, I think that that could become a more kind of.
• 14:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: the understanding among the U.S. public, but also interestingly there was a piece in political yesterday that reported that some people inside the administration having sort of taken note of American public opposition to a new war with Iran.
• 14:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: We're suggesting, well, maybe if we could get Israel to attack first or Iran to attack and make it about Israel, then American public opinion would be more supportive, which I found bizarre in a couple of ways.
• 15:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's like, first of all, if you're kind of having conversations about how best to trick the American people into a war, it's probably not a great idea.
• 15:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: Just full-stop, but also I'm skeptical that Americans generally, that that kind of, that plays out in a way that helps Israel.
• 15:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, actually think that that further undermines US support for Israel, if it's seen that we're only getting engaged here because of Israel.
• 15:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, absolutely.
• 15:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, like, you know, like, I think there's a report just as funny that like, for the first time, a plurality of Americans support the Palestinians more than they support you.
• 15:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: the Israelis, and I think that, like, you know, this Trump proposal, like it's to have Israel's first then to have Iran strike in Israel, and then that would be the use of a pretext for war.
• 15:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like that would actually like feed into the like larger turn of a public opinion from Israel, because it would be with them being the case that the United States is
• 16:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: they do.
• 16:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: And then I believe they can get involved in this world of biocopism, which is not, it doesn't not for probably a public opinion that's like going, certainly about Democrats, but like also a man like Republicans like under 40 is like totally going in the opposite direction.
• 16:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's like, it's a, but but I think that this, I get to
• 16:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's something you said before, but maybe he was worth under sparring, which is a lot of it.
• 16:38
  [SPEAKER_01]: He's like, like, rational that they get offered for the war, because, you know, like, as you said, they, you know, are both claiming that the more a June war of last year obliterated the nuclear weapons, but then the nuclear weapons are enough of an imminent threat.
• 16:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: to justify war, but also that we need to have like a ran strike Israel to just to buy it.
• 17:04
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like it's it's always it does seem like a reprise of 2002 to 2003.
• 17:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, we're like, we also do just support the protesters in Iran.
• 17:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: But like it's like a plethora of root of causes.
• 17:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like if you kind of like offer like one simple
• 17:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: top line like for why you need to go to war like that if you have too many reasons that's a more worrying that if you have like one good reason yeah well no it's it's like a you know a lame cover band version of the lead up to the Iraq war right you've got this kind of buffet of different reasons and options and justifications pick one or two take whichever one tastes better to you is it for human rights is it for democracy is it because of nuclear weapons weapons
• 17:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: But the fact that they can't seem to land on one just tells us everything we need to know is that this is a completely unjustified unnecessary war even before we get to the, you know, still important fact that it is also an illegal war.
• 18:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, what do you raise in your piece of devil?
• 18:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: Get to just in a second.
• 18:06
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's one of the sort of rationality offering.
• 18:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like I've seen the suggested that there's a kind of interesting riff where people like JD Vance and Woodcock are emphasizing the nuclear threat and that the sort of Barco Rubio faction is talking more about the long-range missiles.
• 18:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: That is to say that in some ways, I mean, this might be giving events like too much credit, but like,
• 18:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: uh... uh... the uh... that that would cover by talking about the stuff that can actually be negotiated because around is very willing to negotiate on uh... nuclear policy and in fact they successfully negotiated with you one by bill station and it's always it's used like the most like logical offer for this war is just to like you know like redo the other one to clear the branch out of the trombone right trump in big sharpie and i will applaud it
• 19:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, we were asked, like I think the Rubio to be said that they're emphasizing the missile program, they are actually like say like we have to have war.
• 19:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like if you're saying that the justification for the war is that a rat has long-range missiles, well then you're saying we have to go to work because that's something that they're gonna negotiate on.
• 19:24
  [SPEAKER_01]: But it's also,
• 19:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, it goes to the kind of stupidity of withdrawing from the JCPOA in the first place because you know, this was a criticism that JCPOA just dealt with the nuclear program, which you know, again, it was a bad faith criticism all along because it was mainly coming from people who had previously insisted that we must only focus on the nuclear program because they never actually expected Obama to get a deal.
• 19:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then when you did, they started complaining, well, it doesn't encompass everything that they're doing.
• 19:53
  [SPEAKER_00]: But having made this agreement and having established at least a less, you know, tense or at least having established some measure of trust between the United States and Iran.
• 20:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: we saw an opportunity, which was an unfortunately squandered to get to those issues, right?
• 20:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: If you remember right at the end of Obama's presidency, there was a moment when there was a U.S. boat that was seized by the Iranian Navy.
• 20:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: with U.S. sailors taken prisoner, and that was actually resolved pretty quickly and without any fighting, any conflict because Secretary of State John Kerry could put a call into the Iranian foreign minister.
• 20:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: That is a direct result of the diplomacy that was done around the JCPOA.
• 20:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: That made American safer, that had created some at least channel.
• 20:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: between the two countries that could have been expanded to address all the other issues that these people are talking about and yet that opportunity was completely destroyed by withdrawing from the JCPOA and showing Iran that no, in fact, you cannot trust the United States.
• 20:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, I mean, this is the kind of, you know, like original said, I will also mention that, you know, there's a third presidency that they could have had a factor, which is, I mean, I think one of the real failures of the Biden administration was that they did not take out for, you know, like, of course, play it off.
• 21:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: I read it.
• 21:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, he wrote one of his most unequivocal promises in foreign policy.
• 21:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: He wrote a piece in October of 2020.
• 21:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, who knows if he wrote it, he probably didn't even write it.
• 21:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: But it was under Joe Biden's name, where he said, this is what I'm going to do.
• 21:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then he didn't do it, you know, so he took came to office.
• 21:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: And again, the Iranians were saying, well, listen, we've been burned this previous president withdrew from this deal.
• 21:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Can we trust this new president?
• 21:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: And Joe Biden showed them, no, fact, you cannot trust this new president.
• 21:46
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, this is like a little tangential, but I mean, I do think that the two big crises that we have now are extremely rooted in Biden's unwillingness to take up Obama's foreign policy.
• 21:58
  [SPEAKER_01]: One, you know, as you mentioned, is the Iran nuclear deal.
• 22:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: The other is Cuba.
• 22:01
  [SPEAKER_01]: That's right.
• 22:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so, but we can return it over to it.
• 22:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: I just want to pause my frame because yeah, these were two areas where Obama, you know, very courageously took on the Washington Foreign Policy establishment.
• 22:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: Because, I mean, the foreign policy establishment has sustained these absolutely absurd, you know, conflicts, you know, with Cuba, even longer with Iran.
• 22:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
• 22:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: And again, that's not to absolve either of those countries for their, for their own role, their own corruption, their own repression.
• 22:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: But like the idea that we can't, you know, try to do diplomacy and try to create better relations between these two countries is just kind of an article of religious faith in the foreign policy establishment Obama was right to challenge that he was right to do what he did.
• 22:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: And Biden as a creature of that old thinking was it was an enormous failure for him to not pick up the ball there.
• 22:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
• 23:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, you know, the Pentagon has told me we can't care to do that.
• 23:17
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like, you know, this is like a format of old power that, you know, like in the last war that we had just like last year did actually like, you know, do serious damage to like in the American ally and could do damage to American troops.
• 23:32
  [SPEAKER_01]: the so like like all the sort of problems of the war and it's also unlike 2000 to 2003 there's not a lot of sort of chinkleistic flag waving that's supporting this push towards war and in fact like all the public things full so there's like basically a popular like certainly with democratic borders independent voters but also good
• 23:56
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's like there's no like mask constituency for going to war with Iran right now, and then I have to say the Trump administration has done like, you know, like, is much worse than the Bush administration.
• 24:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: It's sort of like rolling out the war and do your public relations campaign.
• 24:12
  [SPEAKER_01]: They have not been successful.
• 24:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, what would click like give it all that like, you know, like there would be an opposition party here and it existed.
• 24:21
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
• 24:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
• 24:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: We'll take a, we'll take up the battle and then the like, like, repressing on, you know, they should where they'd have public opinion.
• 24:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
• 24:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: on their side as well as, like, it'd be the right policy course.
• 24:34
  [SPEAKER_01]: So, where the Democrats right now?
• 24:35
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, I would say this is the, you talk about, I'll link to it, but you have a piece of poor policy, which goes into this, it's a detail, but like, yeah, where they're right now.
• 24:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Well, so, again, you can say there are a number of great Democrats who have been, or generally good on foreign policy and are taking the lead here.
• 24:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the house you have, Rokana, who has introduced along with his Republican colleague Thomas Massey, a war power's resolution, you know, stating the president does not have authorization to go to war in the Senate.
• 25:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: There is Senator Tim Cane, along with Republican Rand Paul, I've offered a Senate version of that.
• 25:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: You've got a number of others.
• 25:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, obviously Bernie is great on this AOC.
• 25:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's been great on this others.
• 25:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: Who are just, you know,
• 25:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: over the past few weeks have really started to come out more forcefully.
• 25:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: So I would say, in terms of the rank and file on the hill, it's better than it has been in the past.
• 25:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: Having worked on these issues in Washington for almost 20 years, you know, God help me.
• 25:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: I would say that there are more strongly anti-war voices, but we're really to engage in this than there ever happened, at least since I've been here.
• 25:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: But the leadership still remains locked into this kind of nostalgic kind of neoliberal post-cult war, post 9-11 moment where they're just so afraid of taking a strong anti-war position, despite, as you said, the overwhelming evidence that Americans are against this, Democrats and independence are overwhelmingly against this.
• 26:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the fact that this is, there is simply no question, this is a responsible administration.
• 26:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: that is going to use American power responsibility.
• 26:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: We have all the evidence we need on this.
• 26:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I would add to that, you know, you also have a democratic foreign policy established that remains largely, you know, in the hands of kind of pocket, think tanks, hawkish donors can just very conservative very cautious, you know, even for, you know, foreign administration, people kind of the, you know, the foreign policy expert class.
• 26:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: you can find some people who are coming out against my friend Andrew Miller at the Center for American Progress.
• 26:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: One example just published a piece today, you know, making clear that this is a bad idea, which I appreciate that especially coming from cap where I used to work, which is not known for taking creative stands on foreign policy.
• 26:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: But, you know, there's also a problem of, you know, a lot of folks who have been in previous administrations, very much want to work in future administrations.
• 27:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: And they're instincts are to just kind of keep your head down don't get out there against this if you're going to offer any thoughts or analysis just do so in a very kind of here's you know strategically this that we don't know this you know they're just not willing to come out.
• 27:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: and opposed this, which they absolutely should.
• 27:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, I mean, I guess one of the arguments in my piece is like, listen, it is just it's far past time that the Democrats need a leadership that reflects the actual voters of the party.
• 27:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: And I've said this before, I'll be saying it into the future.
• 27:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I mean, we are just saddled with a congressional leadership who even if they now support finally the war powers resolution, which is good.
• 27:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: And that is actually credit to a lot of outside groups that have been putting pressure on members, putting pressure on the leadership.
• 27:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's a credit to a lot of the members themselves, senators, and representatives who have been putting pressure on the leadership to come out and support of these resolutions, but the amount of time and energy
• 28:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: it takes to get the, you know, congressional leaders, a democratic congressional leaders, to the right place, it just shouldn't take this much work.
• 28:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, no.
• 28:15
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, it is actually quite striking.
• 28:19
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I will have to also say, like, I think your piece preside the fact that a lot of the objections that they're making are like simply sort of like pragmatic ones or rather that they're trying to like have a very narrow sort of like a critique rather than like, like ask you the broader questions because I do like, you know, like Emily and I sites
• 28:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: You know, the third time in the last like 30 years is headed towards, or the last 40 years is heading towards like a big, you know, like the least hit war, then like, you know, like, like, It is a responsibility of Congress to like ask what's going on and to debate out that to lay out the case, Pro and Con for this and the sort of a base of this is really striking.
• 29:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, even that some Democrats who are willing to say who are willing to question this, well, one thing you really see is like, Donald Trump hasn't shared his strategy with us.
• 29:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, tell us we need to hear from Donald Trump what what is plan is like, this is not a mystery.
• 29:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
• 29:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is not Sherlock Holmes and the case of the missing causes.
• 29:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: Bella.
• 29:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: Okay.
• 29:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is not something that's going to be explained to you.
• 29:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: It is obvious that this is a bad idea.
• 29:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: You don't need a briefing.
• 29:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: You would need courage to come out and oppose this.
• 29:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, no, no, no, absolutely.
• 29:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like, where do you think I've been sort of struck by, like, just not just now, but over the last decade is this whole issue of the sort of like imperial presidency and the way which Trump has taken advantage of the fact that the president is given huge amount of leeway on issues of national security.
• 30:08
  [SPEAKER_01]: And what it's seen like all the kind of like from what was with that like that's just a broad but like you know like domestically Like what you know like the sort of attacks on immigrants is coming from a sort of All the rationales of the global war on terror.
• 30:25
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean like they're basically using that that sort of framework for domestic Repression like what what to think in that case, you know like that there would be a like of
• 30:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: a larger, more systematic question, like, you know, like, you know, it's the imperial presidency, like, where is it?
• 30:44
  [SPEAKER_01]: Is it, is it, is it, can we, like, push this back?
• 30:47
  [SPEAKER_01]: And we, like, yeah, recover, what I actually, you know, constitutional powers that Congress has for both for declaring war, and for, like, more, either even, equally importantly, oversight, like, in foreign policy decisions,
• 31:03
  [SPEAKER_01]: Like is there like any sort of like constituency or is there any like movement on that front among the Democrats?
• 31:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think there is.
• 31:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I think a lot of there are members and again, when I work with Bernie, this was part of the the logic behind the war powers resolution on Yemen that that we work.
• 31:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah, to pass that, you know, successful.
• 31:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was successful.
• 31:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: The first word powers resolution in history.
• 31:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: Past and then, you know, Trump vetoed it and Congress did not have the, we didn't have the, the enough in the Senate to over to overturn that veto, but still I think an important exercise and effort to kind of get, you know, the Constitutional muscles working again.
• 31:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: But really you're not going to be able to do to write this or reverse it or rest it or change it until you have a president that is committed to doing it and we have now had two democratic presidents Obama and Biden who I think
• 31:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: refused to do what I think is necessary to really dismantle these tools that were erected, especially after 9, 11, but for a long time, even before 9, 11.
• 32:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Yeah.
• 32:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, different presidencies, you know, you get to that seat, you get to the Oval Office, you sit behind that desk and you're like, wow, what amazing power I have and you know, I guess any person would be disinclined to divest themselves of this power in these tools.
• 32:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: But we really need a president who is committed to doing that.
• 32:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: Obama and Biden didn't do it both a reason.
• 32:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's a pragmatism and ideology for Biden very much, but latter for Obama probably war.
• 32:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: The former will take effort, it will take time, it will take expending considerable political capital.
• 32:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: to really kind of reform the way that the executive branch uses force, the tools and procedures that they apply and giving that power back to Congress.
• 32:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, again, going back to my time on the Hill in 2021, Senator Sanders, Senator Murphy and Senator Mike Lee co-introduced co-responsor the National Security Powers Act.
• 33:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: which did these things.
• 33:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: It kind of rewrote the war powers acted dealt with the issue of emergency declarations and sanctions.
• 33:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: It was a pretty big, and if I do say so myself, a pretty impressive bill written with a lot of experts input, a lot of outside groups expert input that attempted to start the process of how Congress could take back these authorities
• 33:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: and constrain, you know, the executive and matters of war as the framers of the Constitution, I think clearly intended.
• 33:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that bill is still there.
• 33:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: I know there's been some interest on the part of other members of Congress in taking it either in whole or in part.
• 33:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: But what we really need is for a president to, you know, a president who is committed to doing it.
• 33:50
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah.
• 33:51
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean,
• 33:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: In terms of, I think it applies more broadly in terms of policy that, like, I was regime on Democrats, like, the usual path for, like, substantial, constitutional change is to have, you know, what the president and the House, like, on board and the president.
• 34:14
  [SPEAKER_01]: that exercises leadership, but then also like a house that's willing to sort of support it and like, you know, like, you know, I mean, that's a real possibility, like, you know, depending on how the elections go, and in the sort of future.
• 34:31
  [SPEAKER_01]: We know now a little bit of time left, but I think this opens up, you know, this
• 34:37
  [SPEAKER_01]: some of the I know that you're very concerned about which is like what sort of foreign policy should Democrats have and there's a
• 34:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: There's a kind of school of thought that you have four months to give it credit, like you sort of based on the idea.
• 34:52
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, what voters care about is domestic issues, that we need to be talking about health care and economics, and not foreign policy.
• 34:59
  [SPEAKER_01]: And I know, you don't share that slide as well.
• 35:02
  [SPEAKER_01]: So what would be your critique to the people who are saying, like, you know, like we should.
• 35:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: The focus should be on branded butter issues.
• 35:10
  [SPEAKER_01]: I mean, I think you have one way to give them the maximum amount of credit.
• 35:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: I do actually think that that is what guiding takes you where and keep Jeffrey's there believe that like this is the way to win elections and to gave power and to like, you know, sort of.
• 35:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Well, we're response to that.
• 35:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, I don't necessarily disagree that most people, Americans are not, just are more focused on the immediate issues.
• 35:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, the cost of food, the cost of housing, are their parents, are their children healthier, their families healthy, are their communities healthy and safe.
• 35:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: And kind of less spending less time thinking and worrying about what's happening on other parts of the world.
• 35:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I think there is, we do have evidence that
• 35:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: Americans are against these, these, you know, just endless wars, they have real questions about the amount of money and time and resources that their government is spending abroad.
• 36:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: You know, we have the whole NATO discussion Trump tapped into that, but not only Trump Obama, even before him was saying, listen, NATO partners need to invest more, we can't be doing this much.
• 36:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: And as I, you know, I think a really important kind of data point that I bring up a lot is that every in every election since the end of the Cold War with the one exception of 2004, the more anti-war candidate has won.
• 36:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: The candidate who promised a more kind of humble, more restrained foreign policy won.
• 36:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, I'm not going to pretend that that is why they won in all of these cases.
• 36:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I do think that's a very interesting set of data at this point.
• 36:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: At the very least, it suggests that even if you know voters are not, they don't have foreign policy top of mind.
• 36:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: There's actually a large constituency that would support a more anti-war foreign policy.
• 36:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: There's a lot more political space to offer a less militaristic
• 36:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: approach to the world, but Democrats continues, you know, they seem to be dominated by this old.
• 37:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: We don't, we don't need to talk about foreign policy.
• 37:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: Let's just kind of talk about our lethal military and make sure we check the box so that we can talk about these other things.
• 37:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: I guess those other things are important.
• 37:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: But I do think, you know, there's far more space to offer a new vision for America's role in the world than I think Democrats in general, especially the Democratic foreign policy establishment, has been really willing to think about because they're completely trained in this old way of, you know, this kind of, if not the cold
• 37:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: America gets up in everybody's business as former Secretary of State Blinken said, you know, if America's not there setting the rules, then maybe no one will, and then it's chaos.
• 37:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's like, that thinking is over.
• 37:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, it's a new world, so I don't.
• 37:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think Americans want to withdraw from the world.
• 37:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: I've never believed in that.
• 37:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: I think the polling shows that they believe America should remain very, you know, kind of robustly engaged.
• 37:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: But there is the question is, how do we engage?
• 37:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: What tools do we use?
• 38:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: And, you know, I think that the time is right for democratic leaders, a democratic candidate for president, maybe even more than one.
• 38:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: To say, listen, here's a new approach.
• 38:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: We will America believes in peace.
• 38:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: We believe in coexistence.
• 38:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is a better way to keep American safe and prosperous than launching wars and interventions all over the world.
• 38:23
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, I would also add the extent that any president has seen as being heavily invested in war and then, you know,
• 38:40
  [SPEAKER_01]: keeping American privacy like I think that actually hurts sleep domestic agenda because I think people think that people want presidents we can say about domestic policy the fact that you know you're going around that Joe Biden knows you know say talking about Akas and they know and that the expanding huge amounts of political capital on supporting
• 39:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: the war in Gaza, I like that actually like you know the arts you and I actually think Trump is actually hurt by the fact that like he has not decided that the foreign policy is where he's going to be responsible again he went in 2024 as he did in 2016 as an anti-war president, as a pro-peace president, he has clearly broken that promise and I think he is paying a price.
• 39:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, yeah, I think that there's a lot of avenue for making it an argument.
• 39:33
  [SPEAKER_01]: And it's just a, even back in the 1990s, the idea of American privacy was always more over the leaked fixation than a popular one, though, you know, like more broadly, Americans have always supported it, kind of like multilateral policy, where the U.S. is an important world player, but like, you know, not the world's policeman.
• 39:53
  [SPEAKER_01]: And then that actually something, you know, as one is seen from the response to Mark Carney's speech at Davos, the way American allies are increasingly thinking as well.
• 40:05
  [SPEAKER_01]: So I think there's a real like opening there, you know.
• 40:09
  [SPEAKER_01]: Yeah, so we've covered a lot of ground, I, you know, whoa, hopefully, why's your hands will prevail, but if not, there's really room for organizationing, for organizing and for political opposition.
• 40:26
  [SPEAKER_01]: I want to thank, you know, Matt, what's again for being out of the program.
• 40:29
  [SPEAKER_01]: And as I mentioned before, we'll look to, is already going to, I think, clarify the click on the dates on the tissue at the moment.
• 40:36
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you, gee, always prepared to be with you.