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Nov 26 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• 0:00
  Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report. It is the November 2025. I'm extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson. He's a TGM.
• 0:15
  We'll hear from the president of the National Corn Growers Association, primarily about E15, but also about the future of biofuels over the next ten, twenty, and thirty years, and then we'll turn our attention the weather forecast with Drew Lerner at World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world online on demand at willagdontorgene. Todd Gleason services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. December corn for the day settled at $4.31 and 3 quarters of a cent, eight and a quarter since the gain. The March at 4.45 and a quarter up seven.
• 1:01
  January beans, six and three quarters of a cent higher. They settled at $11.31 and a half. The March at $11.40 and three quarters, up 6¢. New crop November beans, by the way, up 3¢ at $11.22 and a quarter. December wheat at $5.29, opinion three quarters higher for the soft red, the hard red at $5.17 and a quarter, up 4¢ for the day.
• 1:23
  Live cattle futures were $5.60 higher. Feeder cattle up $8 and a nickel, and the lean hogs $2.37 and a half cents higher. That for a 100 pounds. Crude oil at $58.65 a barrel, about 70¢ higher, and the wholesale price of gasoline today up 2 and 8 tenths of a cent. Greg Johnson from tgmtotalgrainmarketing.com at the elevator here in Champaign County, and Alan joins us.
• 1:49
  Hi, Greg. Thank you much. I was thinking today because it's, heading into the holiday, might be really quiet at the elevator, but, apparently, you're telling me that's not the case?
• 2:01
  Greg Johnson: No. Actually, it's, busy. We're, checking with farmers that have corn on basis contracts that follow December futures, and first, notice day is later this week. First delivery is next week. And so we have to have farmers either price or roll those contracts out of the December futures into the next month and find out whether they wanna sell or hold on and see what happens.
• 2:25
  And most of them are holding on, rolling to the March contract, buying themselves another three months worth of time. Most of them wanna wait and see what that January 12 USDA crop report says, see if they lower the yield a little bit, see if we can get a little bit of a rally from that. We're seeing a little bit of a rally today, but not enough to cause many farmers to wanna sell. Even with the 6 or 7¢ rally today, we're still kind of in the middle of this trading range that we've been in for quite some time. And so unless we get to the upper end of that range, it feels like farmers are very content to hold on to corn, wait for that January 12 crop report, maybe sell some beans above $11 if they need some cash flow, but very tight holders of corn to this point.
• 3:09
  So we're just dotting our i's and crossing our t's as far as making sure they wanna hold on and roll this corn. And I guess, say, most of them are gonna hold and roll and and wait and see what happens.
• 3:21
  Todd Gleason: Ever pessimistic on yield and ever optimistic on
• 3:24
  Greg Johnson: price. Imagine that.
• 3:26
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. That that sounds pretty difficult. Should they be, do you suppose?
• 3:31
  Greg Johnson: I I think so. I I I think in corn, there you know, there's a very good chance that we could lower the yield, maybe not as much as what some of the private analysts think, but I think that we could still see a three bushel yield drop in corn. That may or may not get us a rally because they'll probably drop the demand side of the equation at the same time. We won't see the ending stocks get much below. And so 2,000,000,000 is not a bullish number, but I think the other thing to keep in mind is with these input costs as high as they are, will we really plant as many corn acres next year here in The United States as what we did this year?
• 4:10
  We probably will in the I states in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, those states where we can grow two forty, two fifty bushel corn. I think we can spread those higher input costs out over two fifty bushels an acre. But your Dakotas, your Missouries, your Kansases, Kentucky, states like that that can't grow those kinds of yields, I would expect those states to plant more of other crops, whether that be beans, wheat, canola, something other than corn, given these high input costs. And it just doesn't feel like these inputs wanna come down. So unless we see input costs come down or the price of corn rally to try to attract those extra acres, it kinda feels to me like maybe acres will be down, which is kinda price supportive.
• 4:54
  So not looking for a big rally, but December corn maybe in that 4.75 to 4.8 range. That's kind of where we were last year when we set the February crop average, and I think that might be a good target to shoot for for this year too. So we're only ten, fifteen tenths away from those kind of numbers. So I don't wanna say it's gonna be a very bullish, winter, but, it could be mildly supportive.
• 5:18
  Todd Gleason: Was it, Kansas City last week in AFB? There was a broker there that actually also worked for Helena, and he was talking about yield being off two to three bushels for corn. By the time we got to January. The president of the National Corn Growers Association was in Bloomington yesterday, suggested the same thing, and he is in Southwestern Ohio. I did ask him about yields there.
• 5:49
  They were off. They had a rough time, but they were they were not as nearly as bad as he had expected. They thought they'd be off 10 to 15 bushels was also so I don't know how how much better they were than that, but that's not too bad. And then you're telling me three bushels lower. I'm wondering what what makes you think that'll be the case.
• 6:10
  Greg Johnson: Well, I I think if you look at the numbers that the USDA is using this year versus last year, you know, we are down. I mean, and we're not down 50. I agree. We thought we were gonna be down 15% in Illinois, for example, and it turns out we're down 7%. So not nearly down as much as what we had feared given the dry weather, but we still are down.
• 6:30
  I I don't know that the numbers, are going to be similar to to last year, and and Illinois may be the exception. Illinois may come through and be somewhere close to where we were last year. But with all the stories we're hearing from farmers and private analysts out of Iowa, that central part of Iowa, which can grow two fifty bushel corn, they had too much water, fungus, fungal diseases and rust and other things like that. A lot of yields were that we were hearing were in the low two hundreds, where they normally get two fifty. So that's definitely a double digit percentage decrease in yield.
• 7:07
  And and the USDA in their last report kept them, you know, almost as similar to where they were a year ago. So that's where the the yield drop may come in in some of those Western states that maybe had too much rain.
• 7:19
  Todd Gleason: What do you think producers and you should be watching between Thanksgiving and the end of the year?
• 7:24
  Greg Johnson: Well, the one thing that, came into the marketplace here in the last several days is China is harvesting their corn crop as well, and now they've experienced lot of rain, too much rain. So far, it's only affected the quality of some of their corn. It hasn't affected the quantities, but that's something to keep an eye on. You know, China's always the wild card. They wanna be self sufficient on corn.
• 7:49
  They're willing to buy soybeans from The US and Brazil and Argentina, but they'd like to be self sufficient in corn. But if they really have a a weather related, decline in in yield, you know, there there's always that chance that maybe China comes in and buys some corn. So that's something to keep an eye on. Other than that, I think it's just trying to get to our target prices, 4.75 December corn for next year and 4.55, 4.6 on the March corn. That's all, those are both 10 to 15¢ higher than where we are today.
• 8:22
  So I, like I say, I think I'm friendly corn, but I'm not wildly bullish corn. I think farmers should be ready to pull the trigger and get some sales made if we do see those prices, get back up to the upper end of the range.
• 8:33
  Todd Gleason: Yeah. China really working hard with corn, particularly part of that was the acquisition by a Chinese company of Syngenta a few years back, and then the push to try to mechanize much more of their crop production. Harder to do lots of smallholder farmers in that nation. In fact, seed companies, I know, don't sell bushel bags. They sell more like what you would plant with here, at least, in much smaller packages because they're working on, you know, one and two hectare kinds of things and maybe smaller parcels than that, so we'll have to watch and see how that happens.
• 9:14
  Livestock industry, beef producers and production have had an interesting couple of weeks, actually had an interesting fall, but between them and still not having the herd size there, and avian flu, do you think there is an issue related to feed usage in The United States at some point?
• 9:35
  Greg Johnson: Well, I think the feed number is way too high. I think the USDA, when they raised the yield, they said, well, we have more bushels. We have to figure out a way to get rid of it. And so they upped the ethanol numbers, they upped the feed usage numbers, and they upped the export numbers. Now the export number may be justified, but I I still have maintained for months and I still maintain that that feed usage number is too high.
• 10:01
  I mean, the latest cattle on feed number was 98% of a year ago. We're we're feeding less than we were a year ago. We're feeding the least amount of cattle here in The US in over seventy years. That does not argue for, higher feed usage, in in my opinion. So I guess I'm still waiting for USDA to lower that feed usage number, but they probably won't until they lower the the crop size, which would be on that January 12 crop report.
• 10:25
  Todd Gleason: Greg, you have a great Thanksgiving holiday, and we'll talk with you again next Wednesday.
• 10:30
  Greg Johnson: Thanks, Todd. You too.
• 10:31
  Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson is with TGM. A couple of reminders. First, the markets are closed tomorrow for the Thanksgiving holiday in The United States. They will be hoping Friday for a shortened trading day. We'll record commodity week this afternoon.
• 10:45
  It'll run tomorrow during the closing market report slot and on Friday as well during the closing market report slot. Also, visit our website at willag.org because I'll have it posted there this afternoon. You can listen to commodity week early, and you can pick up your tickets for the farm assets conference. That's coming up on the December in Bloomington at the AgriCenter. It's really easy to get to.
• 11:10
  We have a fantastic day planned for you. The farm doc team will be there. We'll have members of the Illinois Corn Growers Association and the Illinois Soybean Association on stage with us along with a deep dive into what renewable diesel, soy diesel, biofuels, electric vehicles, all those things might look like going forward, And some of the things that are happening here on campus and all the way through the corridor to Decatur to develop bioprocessing. We'll do that with Vijay Singh from the IBRL or the Integrated Bioprocessing lab here and with the folks at PREMIENT. You'll want to make sure you're there to hear all about that.
• 11:51
  The farm assets conference, $80 includes the whole of the day and your meal at the noon hour. Sign up now at willag.org willag.org or you can register online at farmdocdaily.illinois.edu. As well, speaking of the AgriCenter in Bloomington, I was there yesterday for the Illinois Corn Growers Association's annual meeting and I caught up with the president of the National Corn Growers Association, Jed Power. He hails from Ohio. I asked him to tell me a little bit more about higher ethanol blends and what farmers need from Washington DC to succeed.
• 12:33
  Jed Bower: Here domestically working on hopefully get this e 15 over over the hump here at the end of the year, the first quarter. You know, as as that comes full circle, gets fully implemented, it's potential for two to two and a half billion bushel more grind. That'll drastically help these piles of corn around the country. Then hopefully from there we can move on to higher blends to continue to support the internal combustion engine, liquid fuels moving down the road. I there's a lot of potential there for long term growth and then obviously into SAF and potential bunker fuel uses in the marine industry.
• 13:07
  Circling back to livestock though, yeah, you're right, we're pretty flat here in the country. But I think there's still some potential moving forth. We have to support our friends in the animal industry. I think there's gonna be huge growth around the world that are wanting our protein products. And yes, we've had some issues with the avian bird flu.
• 13:27
  We've had issues obviously with building our beef herds because prices are so high. And if I was still raising cattle, I would be in that situation where I'd really wanna I would struggle with that. Do I bring heifers back into the operation or do we sell and try to cash in now currently? But I think we support those industries. We continue to support them in their export efforts of corn in all forms around the world.
• 13:50
  I think we can complement each other in that aspect and help them move their products where they're needed. And then of course, moving down into India, into Southeast Asia, I think there's huge opportunities there again, both with the protein side, with the ethanol side, and then moving some of our dried distillers grains down there to some of
• 14:11
  Greg Johnson: their
• 14:11
  Jed Bower: aquaculture. Any place we can see an opportunity to move corn domestically, internationally, I think that's gonna be key to support our growers around the country.
• 14:22
  Todd Gleason: You mentioned, and you didn't quite say it this way, but higher octane fuels. I'm wondering what that looks like and how it is that the corn growers are viewing what's happening to the internal combustion engine going forward. Because the numbers that were put on the screen today show a really big jump, in usage if this were to come to fruition. Oh, you're exactly right.
• 14:50
  Jed Bower: I think it's key. And, you know, I don't wanna say it caught us off guard, but it was a little startling with the last administration. We really thought we would have a true opportunity to push ethanol out for higher blends. And then they made that jump to electrification. I think we're primed and ready.
• 15:06
  We just have to help the administration and congress realize that the infrastructure's not there for electricity yet. Yes, it may be the way of the future, but you're way down the road, twenty, thirty years of building this infrastructure up so it can handle the demand on the electrical grid. And I think we can be and will be that stepping stone of increasing the higher octane blends with the use of ethanol, allowing us for more miles per gallon per tank, better use efficiency, and just reviving that internal combustion engine for decades down the road.
• 15:46
  Todd Gleason: So returning to the reasons that ethanol, the original RFS push was put into place was that use us as a bridge to get to where you want and need to be as it relates to sustainability over the long run.
• 16:01
  Jed Bower: Well, I think you're exactly right. But that bridge may get extended as things go on. And that, you know, as as a corn farmer, I'm gonna try to be optimistic. Most of us as farmers, we tend to be a little pessimistic. But I think that's key.
• 16:13
  Yes. It's a bridge to what may happen down the road. But things also happen. So if we can be in the market, be profitable for everybody as they use our product of ethanol, I think we can extend that out even farther. And I think that's gonna
• 16:25
  Todd Gleason: be key moving forward. First bridge built in twenty o five. Next one in twenty o seven. That was the last one. And now you need legislation again to make this happen further out.
• 16:37
  What do you hope happens in DC?
• 16:39
  Jed Bower: Well, I hope something happens. I mean, it's unfortunate, but I think we're all getting frustrated of the lack of work that happens in DC. Just coming off of the longest government shutdown ever, forty three days, we've gotta get congress working. We've gotta get them working together. We got to help them understand that their constituents across the country actually expect work to happen in Washington.
• 17:06
  We can't be worried about feelings and emails. We have to be doing work that supports the American people And in our case, supporting American agriculture because we are the backbone of this country. We support rural America, and we have to have them doing good work.
• 17:21
  Todd Gleason: Jed Bauer from Ohio is the president of the National Corn Growers Association. He spoke yesterday during the annual meeting of the Illinois Corn Growers at the AGRA Center in Bloomington, which will also be the host site for the upcoming December 12 Farm Assets Conference. Sign up for those tickets on our website right now at willag.org. Let's check the weather forecast now. Drew Lerner is here.
• 17:51
  He's with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Hey. Happy Thanksgiving to you, Drew. We appreciate you being with us. Cold weather for Thanksgiving.
• 17:59
  Tell me about it and then the travel, as people try to move back home at the end of the weekend.
• 18:05
  Drew Lerner: Yeah. You know, it's definitely gonna get cooler out there. I think the good news on that front is that it's not gonna be as cold as what I think a lot of us have been fearing, but nonetheless, it's still gonna be cold. It doesn't matter how you slice it. It's gonna be cold.
• 18:23
  Our lowest temperatures as we go forward through the weekend are going to slip down into readings that will be in the single digit. I'm talking about in the Northern Plains now. Let me scare you first about that. Single digits for afternoon highs will occur in parts of that region as we get to the end of the weekend. And then as we move into the nighttime hours up there, we're probably gonna see some temperatures in the negative single digits, perhaps even some negative teens in a few spots.
• 18:57
  That's North Dakota, though. For the heart of the Midwest, the situation isn't going to be nearly as punishing. It's still gonna be cold though. We expect to see those temperatures tomorrow slipping down into the thirties across the heart of the Midwest, some twenties further to the north. And then by the time we get to the end of the weekend and early next week, that's when the coldest air will be here and we'll be looking at teens and twenties for highs.
• 19:20
  Now that's pretty nippy no matter what time of the year it is. Our lows at night across this region aren't gonna get tremendously colder than that. But we are going to see those readings slip down into teens again, maybe there wouldn't be a couple of upper single digit readings to the north. Now part of the reason why it gets cold, you mentioned about the travel issue. The latter part of our holiday weekend is looking real ugly.
• 19:45
  And it's really not the temperatures. It's it's all about the snow that's going to come around. So we've got this little mini blizzard that's winding down today in the Great Lakes region, but behind that is a temporary surface high pressure center. And then a new snow event that's going to be settling over Iowa and Missouri on Saturday and spreading the snow all the way into Illinois and parts of Indiana and Wisconsin, Minnesota. The storm system Saturday afternoon and Saturday night will work its way from that area into Quebec, Canada.
• 20:17
  And so most of the central parts of the Midwest really from the middle part of Illinois and Iowa over through Michigan and Northern Indiana. Those areas are all gonna see some significant snows. It looks like most of it will be in the range of three to six inches, but there's going to be some nine to 10, maybe 12 inch amounts in a few spots. Parts of Iowa and Wisconsin and Northwestern Illinois will probably be in the ground zero area for the greatest amounts. Now it'll rain to the Southwest of that.
• 20:47
  And I should point out it's going to get windy behind this event too. We've already had wind here today and yesterday, but we're gonna have more of it. And so I won't call it a blizzard, but we'll have some serious blowing snow on the backside of that storm.
• 21:00
  Todd Gleason: Let's turn to some warmer climbs. South America in the midst of its growing season. Any changes that we should know about?
• 21:08
  Drew Lerner: One of the biggest changes taking place here is we're doing a flip flop now for Brazil. Instead of being drier biased in the North and wetter in the South, we're going to go the other way. And so this weekend, we will see rain occur across many of the well, actually most of Brazil in general, we will bring some needed moisture into some of the drier areas in the Central West. And then next week we will dry out the South additionally. We've already been drying down a little bit from Rio Grande do Sul into parts of Parana here recently, but it's not too dry.
• 21:39
  It's really a pretty good environment. We're going to get a little bit of rain on Sunday through Monday into early Tuesday in that region. Then after that, they're looking at five to seven days of dry and a little bit of warmish weather. So they'll see a firm uptake place. I think by the time we get to mid month, we're probably going to be looking at some drier than usual conditions in Southern Brazil and a little bit of concern maybe for Rio Grande to solve it.
• 22:03
  The rest of the country should be in fairly good shape.
• 22:05
  Todd Gleason: Hey. Thanks much. I appreciate it. We will talk with you again next week.
• 22:10
  Drew Lerner: Great. Have a great Thanksgiving.
• 22:12
  Todd Gleason: You too. That's Drew Lerner. He is with World Weather Incorporated in Kansas City. Joined us on this Wednesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. Online on demand at wilag.org, willag.org, where today you'll find a way to register for the Farm Assets Conference that's coming up on the December in Bloomington.
• 22:33
  Be sure to register today. Don't wait. $80 includes your noon hour meal, the farm doc team, and so much more. All the details at willag.org. Don't forget tomorrow is a holiday for Thanksgiving.
• 22:46
  The markets are closed. Our commodity week program will air during this segment tomorrow. Then Friday, the university has a holiday, and commodity week will again air on Friday afternoon, but not as usual. It'll be in this closing market report slot. Thanks for listening.
• 23:03
  You have a great Thanksgiving holiday. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. Doctor. JACKSON: