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Twins/Yankees MLB + WNBA Best Bets Wednesday 8/13/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: It was just complete bullshit.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: So that's that's I'm gonna start off this show horrible
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Sunday one and five.
• 0:14
  Speaker 2: I don't even know what to tell you about that.
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: I just don't want to do this anymore.
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: I have never seen anything like this. Man with the
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: slump continuing, two straight losses, not.
• 0:26
  Speaker 2: A good day at all.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Own four, I have not had a good season. Man,
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: with bookends the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues,
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: browins hat Man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the bruins arch epe is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: who even knows?
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: Man, I don't know what day is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what data is anymore.
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: Man, back with you after.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: The worst day that I could possibly have, Back with
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: you as I always am until I die at least
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: oh and two.
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: Yesterday and yesterday it did not go well for me.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Own five the worst month that I've ever had in
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: my eighteen years doing this. I don't know what to
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: even tell you about this anymore. The slump yesterdays, the
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: slump discontinuous, the slump continues.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: Somebody fucking kill me, please.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: I don't even know what I should do at this point,
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: other than potentially end it all. Oh, I'm thinking about it.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: We might be ending at all. Uh what's up, everybody?
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: This is Toad. This is Better Off Dead? Back with
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: you for Better Off Dead? What is this? Wednesday, August thirteenth,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: loser on the show yesterday. It's been bad over the
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: last month, even though the past week or so wasn't
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: that bad. Man Chicago Cubs losing five to one or
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: whatever it was. It's very unfortunate. I thought it was
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: a solid play. I had a couple of betters that
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: I listened to also agreeing basically with the Cubs side
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: in that game.
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: Still did not work out, at least as of right now.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not actually betting these but it's been a lost
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: year for the most part. And I mean I could
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: still have a winning year as far as just tracking
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: every bet is concerned, but March really put me in
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: the tank. Last year was only my second losing year
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: in seventeen years. I believe this is kind of the
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: eighteenth year. I forget exactly what time of year I
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: actually started way back in the day, but something like that.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: We need football back. Man, My college football last year
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: was awesome. NFL usually is not too bad, NBA usually
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: works well for me. I'm done with baseball. I mean,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: this is just so bad. And yet I'm gonna give
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: out two baseball players today, so be prepared for that,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: and they're probably not very interesting. Let's just get right
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: into this, man, it's the rundown. Whatever we got WNBA here.
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: Don't know if.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Anybody cares, except we do have four games today. Maybe
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: there'll be a dildough. We haven't seen a doldo in
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: a while. Chicago at Connecticut, I mean, this is probably
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: the worst game imaginable. I mean, how do you even
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: handicap a game like this? These teams are terrible. Connecticuts
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: lost five games in a row. They're returning over from
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: a road trip to the Pacific Coast, too, which is a.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: Really bad spot.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: So not only are the worst team in the league,
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: but they're also in a pretty bad spot. Chicago coming
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: in there on a multiple game losing streak, as well.
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: They only won one game going all the.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: Way back to whatever this was that they beat Minnesota,
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: which was I don't know, weeks ago. Probably at this point,
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: neither of these teams are in good shape right now, man.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: And what's hilarious about this is that even though Connecticut's
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: the worst team in the league, they're actually favored in
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: this game. They're from one and a half to three
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's possible that Reese is out for
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: this game. Again, I don't even know, man, Yeah, she
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: is actually out for this game. So there's a lot
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: of injury, a lot of injuries on the sky right now.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: It's just part of the reason why Connecticut's actually favored
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: here because you look at this, you think, how could
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Connecticut be.
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: Favored against anybody?
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Well, they're at home, they're against the second worst team
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: in the league, and the second worst team in the
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: league has injury problems right now, So that's basically why.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: But there's no way I would touch that game. I
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: think Connecticut's in a bad spot. But Chicago's just so
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: just decimated by injuries that it's like, what can you even.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: Do with this game?
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if a total makes sense The
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: total has gone up to one sixty, though, which is
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: still a fairly low total, not as low as in
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: the second game. Here Golden State and Washington with an
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: extremely low total in this game. I don't do WNBA
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: totals though, man just sides occasionally haven't given out one
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: in a while now. Washington they're also returning over from
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: a road trip. They went a bit all over the place.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: They kind of just went to the Midwest and then
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: they went to Dallas. They finally broke their lost streak,
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: so that could be an indicator that they might have
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: some momentum moving forward. But they're returning over from a
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: road trip, which again that's that tends to be a
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: little bit of an issue, a distracted spot, because you
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: have to get back to home life whatever. Golden State
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: they're starting a road trip with some momentum because they
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: won their last two games and homes so it's a
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: little bit of a better spot for them in a way,
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: because usually when you go out on the road, you
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: tend to focus on that first game on the road trip.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Both teams do kind of have reason to be focused
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: here though, because they're both right around five hundred record
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: wise and they're fighting to make the playoffs here, so
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: both teams should really show up for this.
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: The money's coming on Golden State.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that, again because it is the
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: return home spot for Washington, so the spot is better
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: for the Valkyries. They flipped from a one to that
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: point dog to one that point favorite, so I would
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: disagree with that, even though they are missing one of
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: their best players for the rest of the year in Thornton,
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: New York. At Las Vegas is a pretty decent matchup.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: I mean really, based on WNBA standards, at least, it's
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: a decent matchup. Vegas has been playing pretty well recently.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: They've won four more games in a row, coming up
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: an easy win over Connecticut that they look like they
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: didn't really even show up for that game and they
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: still just won it by eight.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: Didn't really matter.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: It was almost kind of a sandwich spot because they
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: had Seattle and the Liberty surrounding it, so it wasn't
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: a great spot for Vegas. So they do have some
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: momentum here. I expect them to show up against the Liberty,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: who have the best in the East. Still, Vegas pretty
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: much just ensure that they're gonna make the playoffs at
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: this point, but I guess they have to continue winning
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: to really make sure of that. But they're not going
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: to overlook the liberty, the liberty of one four of
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: the last five as well. They're already on the road now.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: They just beat La in La and now they're coming
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: into Vegas. So the travel spot and maybe not as
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: bad as it could be for them because they have
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: already adjusted to the Pacific time zone. I still think
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Vegas is probably the right side, though, because they're not
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: even traveling at all. They kind of need to win
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit more than New York does. And the
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: fact that they're favored against a team with the better
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: record kind of looks like, whoa, It almost looks too.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: Easy to take the liberty.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: But I would lay it with with Vegas if I
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: was gonna do this thing. Vegas up from two to
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: two and a half here, so the money of agreeing
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: with that.
• 7:00
  Speaker 2: Andrew, what's up? Man?
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. I apologize for always having like
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: heartburn in the morning of belching on the stream. It's awesome, baby,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: and Atlanta Seattle is the final game here. Seattle's really
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: been in a slide, man, they've lost five games in
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: a row. They're not as bad as this makes them look.
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: I mean, the majority of those games are basically against
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: some of the better teams, although they did lose twice
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: to LA. They are returning home here, but they didn't
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: leave the Pacific time zone, so it's not really the
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: worst return home spot Boston in Seattle, they really need
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: a game, man, because they're sitting at five hundred, which
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: in itself is kind of a motivator because you don't
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: really want to see your record be below five hundred,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: but also they're trying to make the playoffs here at
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: this point, Atlanta may pay a little bit less attention here.
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: Atlanta is on a win streak.
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Though they won five games in a row. They're playing well.
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Britney Griner came back in the last game, although he
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: slash she slash it came off the bench and didn't
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: play that many minutes. But I expect Grinder probably be
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: getting more minutes in this game. But it is a
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: third straight road game for Atlanta. Not really the easiest
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: spot for Atlanta. But if Grinder's back in the starting line,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: it they could kind of maybe throw off their chemistry.
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: A little bit.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: If if they decide to do that, I don't know.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: But Seattle's flip from one point dog to a two
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: point favorite.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: I don't disagree with that.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: Seattle's in the somewhat better spot and they need the
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: game more, even though the momentum aspect of it is
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: kind of against them. But I don't really disagree with
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: that move. All right, let's go to Major League Baseball here, man,
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: we got afternoon baseball. Because it's Wednesday, a lot of
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: these teams are gonna be traveling. You could see I
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: do have a bet on I'm gonna give out a
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: play on the Twins Yankees, and I'm gonna give out
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: and you probably know what it is already if you
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: know how I handicap stuff. And I'm gonna give out
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: one on Pittsburgh and Milwaukee, which maybe I shouldn't even
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: be doing, but I just think it's I just don't
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: see how I can't do it, man. I mean I've
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: said stuff like that before though, and it has failed.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: But I just think it's gonna be the way to go.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Detroit and the White Sox the first came up, which
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: doesn't really look like a very interesting matchup. All the
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: White Sox did win yesterday, nine to six. The White
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Sox obviously have the worst offense. They have the worst
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: of the two bullpens. We know Detroit's the better team.
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: Bullpen usage wise yesterday basically pretty similar. Each team us
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: three pitchers. Of the White Sox bullpen maybe a little
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: bit more arrested than Detroit's, but Detroit sill has.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: The better bullpen.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: The problem with Detroit's pitching here is they're undecided on
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: their starting pitcher, so we didn't even know it was
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: going to pitch for them. Meanwhile, Shane Smith, the rookie
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: for the White Sox, is pitching here. He was really
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: good at the start of the season, and I think
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: he started to kind of just tire out a little bit.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: But he is now coming off of being injured, and
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: I think this is his second appearance since being injured.
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: His numbers on the.
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Season are okay, four point two two ERA, one point
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: two to nine, WHIP been very similar home and away.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter. He was injured for a bit
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: and then he came back and he made a start
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: on August first. Actually, this is going to be his
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: third start since he came back. His first start wasn't
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: very good. He walked four guys against Anaheim, didn't make
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: it through five innings, but he only allowed to earned runs,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: which wasn't that bad last start out though he seemed
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: to be coming back into four and because he had
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: eight strikeouts one walk in a five inning performance against
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: Seattle only allowing tour in runs, that's fairly impressive. So
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Smith might be on the right track here. Detroit has
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: seen him though, so I think maybe part of the
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: reason why he did do well against Detroit the first
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: time he faced them, which assume was earlier this year,
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: part of that was the fact that Detroit had never
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: seen Smith before. So sometimes it's a little bit of
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: an edge to that young pitcher when they're a talented
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: pitcher and the opposing offense hasn't seen them before. But
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: he did do well against them. So his numbers against
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Detroit are good small sixteen at bat sample size, but
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: Detroit had no extra base hits five to one strike
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio one eighty eight average of four to
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: twenty three oh ps, so it is possible Smith pitch
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: as well. Again here, Troit's definitely gonna be favored. ESPN
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: is looking like they only have them around minus one thirty,
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: which it's gonna be a small favorite price on Detroit,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: and I think the public is gonna tend to want
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: to come in on the Detroit side here, and I
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: would hesitate with that. I think there might be a
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: little bit of value maybe in looking to Chicago, maybe
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: as a home underdog. Maybe in the first five you
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: don't want to deal with the fact their bullpen is
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: pretty bad. So that's the way I look at that.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Milwaukee. I'm gonna give out a play on this,
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: which I will wait until the best bet segment for that.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Washington at Kansas City. Kansas City is on the verge
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: of a sweep here, which on the one hand, might
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: mean they might take Washington a little bit lightly here
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: in Washington might have a little bit extra motivation, But
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Kansas City is sitting at five hundred man they're still
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: not technically out of the playoff race here, so I
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: think those are motivating factors for Kansas City. And then
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: you don't want to be below five hundred again, you
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: want to keep playing well. So I don't think Kansas
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: City is gonna not show up in this game or
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: anything like that. So I don't think the motivational factor
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: there is that big. Is that lopside of one way
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: or the other. I should say Kansas City absolutely has
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the better of the two bullpens between the two teams.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Kansas City used one additional reliever yesterday, but they didn't
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: use a couple of their relievers, didn't have them throw
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: that many pitches. So the bullpen edge certainly still goes
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: to Kansas City. Washington does have the better offense, although
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: their offense isn't that good. They're decent on the road.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Starting pitching, I think you got to give the edge
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: to Kansas City. Jake Irvin pitching for Washington hasn't been
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: that good at all. Four point ninety RA, one point
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: three four whip. He's been worse on the road five
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: point six ERA on the road this month in two
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: starts hasn't been good either, five to two strike at
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: walk ratio has given up sixteen hits and eight runs.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: In nine in the third innings.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: I mean one was against Washington, which or excuse me, Washington,
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: this is Washington.
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: One was against he's on Washington. What am I saying?
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: I keep saying the wrong team. Man, I'm so out
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: of it. In the morning.
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: One was against Milwaukee.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: They're a really good offense, so maybe you give him
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: a pass for that. But he didn't do that well
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: at San Francisco either, So Irvan's not a good form
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: here man seven point seven to one ERA over the
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: last month, I mean during this month, I should say,
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: in the past two starts. He's not pitching well. And
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: up against Kansas City, he does have good numbers against them, though,
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: even though only four of their hitters have seen him
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: before twenty three at bats, you only have two hits
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: off them. The one is a home run from Yaz
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: but eighty seven batting average allowed in three forty two
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: o ps. So Irvin has handled this really bad Kansas
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: City lineup. But I'm still not really ready to trust Irvin.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think I'm ready to trust Seth Lugo either,
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: after what he did to me last time. Man, Seth Lugo,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: what are you doing to me? Man? Lugo still has
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: pretty good numbers on the season, three point four to
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: six ERA, one point two whip for Kansas City. He's
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: better at home two point six to ninety RA at home.
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: His last start was bad, which was on the road.
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: He gave up seven earned runs Man, and I was
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: expecting an under in that game. If I remember correctly,
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: that was the play I gave out on that game.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: He's been bad in two starts this month. They were
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: both on the road, though, but he failed to make
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: it five innings and either won four strikeouts, six walks,
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: nine point three five rail theough granted that start against
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Minnesota skewing everything giving up seven or in runs.
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: He may return to for him a little bit here.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: I mean, his numbers against Washington are pretty good and
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: forty at bats. He has eleven strikeouts against them, one walk,
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: two twenty five average five nineteen ops. Solugum yet to
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: decide whether you think he's actually in really bad form
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: right now or maybe that one start was just a
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: heavy outlier. I don't know which way I would want
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: to go with this. But the money actually looks like
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: it's coming in in Washington, with Kansas City down from
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: minus one eighty to minus one sixty nine, seventy nine
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets only seventy one percent of the cash
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: on them. I don't disagree with it necessarily, although I
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: really don't trust Irvin Man, so that's the issue there.
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: Kansas City. Probably the feeling is they shouldn't be favored
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: by this much. I mean, their offense is bad enough
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: that it makes it hard for them to really get
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: like a stranglehold Lee on most games. It's probably gonna
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: be I mean, you expect a lot of games in
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: Kaufman Stadium to be low scoring because it is a
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: Money is coming in on the under.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Total came out at nine, which is a fairly high
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: total for a game at this stadium, especially with two
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: pretty bad offenses. Fifty two percent ticket seventy percent of
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: the couch on the under.
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: So the money coming in on the under.
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: In that game as well. But I'm not gonna touch
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: that game obviously. I don't want anything to do with it.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: I definitely don't want anything to do with Colorado and
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis. Saint Louis actually lost and got shut out
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: yesterday by Colorado. They actually couldn't hit Kyle Freeland yesterday. Colorado,
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: very very very rare that Colorado was gonna shut out
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: a team on the road. That's just crazy. Colorado. They're
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: just historically bad, but they actually saved their bullpen. They
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: only is one relief pitcher Saint Louis used three. Saint
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Louis still has the somewhat better bullpen, although neither bullpen
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: is really that good at this point. Saint Louis does
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: have the better offense. Austin Gomber's pitching for Calldo here
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: bad numbers six point five two ERA, one point five
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: to seven WHIP. He's a little bit better on the
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: road a five point nine two ERA, although that's relative
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: to not pitching well in corps Field this month hasn't
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: been particularly good seven point three six ERA in two starts,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: an eight to four strike a walk ratio. He gave
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: up three on runs to Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh a very bad offense,
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: and then on the road at Arizona, which is a
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: difficult assignment. I mean, that's a good offense still at
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: a hitter friendly park, but he gave up six earned
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: runs to Arizona. I mean, he's not pitching well right now.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: His numbers against Saint Louis are pretty bad as well.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: In seventy at bats a three forty three average, allowed
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: nine to fifty eight ohps, so it's not looking very
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: good for him. In this game, he's going up against
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: Michael McGreevy, who's a young pitcher that does have some upside.
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: I would say a strikeout rate is not very high,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: but sometimes he comes out and gets the job done.
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Four point four ERA, one point two two whip those
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: are not awful numbers. He is worse at home though,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: five point three to three e R. But he's coming
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: off a shutout of the Cubs for six innings, which
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: is pretty impressive. And Saint Louis has actually won five
• 17:09
  Speaker 1: of his last six starts, although some of it was
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: because Saint Louis gave him some run support there. He's
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: allowed some runs in those starts, so it wasn't all
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: him just blowing guys away or anything like that. Although
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: this month he's gone six innings and both starts he's
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: allowed four runs combined. Seven to two strike out walk
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: ratio three ERA. That's not too bad, so he's in
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: decent form right now. Mediocre numbers against Colorado and twenty
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: eight at bats three zero strike out walk ratio. Shunk
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: has a home run off him. Skunk, No Shunk. I
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: don't even know who that is. I don't know these
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: young hitters that the Rockies have two eighty six batting
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: average a lot, but only a six to seventy nine ohps,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: so pretty low ps.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: Got it tilt the scales.
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: Towards mcgriev I mean, Saint Louis does appear to have
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: every edge in this game, at least slightly, but they're
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: a huge favorite. I mean again, Colorado's gonna be a
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: huge underdog every game because they're just so historically bad.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: It's up for minus one ninety five to minus two
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: oh five. I'm on the money line on Saint Louis
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: ninety three percent of tickets, ninety seven percent of the
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: cash on them. I mean, if you wanted to go
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis run line, you could.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, I don't know.
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: I probably wouldn't beat you up too much over it,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: but I don't love it. And then the totals down
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: from nine to eight, uh so, a pretty significant move
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: towards the under, sixty nine percent of tickets on the over,
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash on the under. I don't
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: know if I would agree with that man with a
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: questionable pitcher at least on one side. I mean, I
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: could see both pitchers potentially not doing particularly well in
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: this game, so the money coming in on the under
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: seems odd to me as well.
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: But I mean, I'm not gonna give out.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Really, I'm not gonna give on anything on that game
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: Arizona at Texas. I was wrong about yesterday's game being
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: high scoring. I thought after the bullpens got blown out
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: in the first game, and I get I.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: Lean to the over in both of these.
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: Games so far, and it happened first game and not
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: in the second game. I mean, Texas's bullpen is good,
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: They're the better bullpen. Arizona is the better offense of
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: these two. But Arizona's bullpen stinks, and with Texas bullpen
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: being pretty overworked, that's why I've been looking towards overs
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: in this series. Texas again overworked bullpen. Still they used
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: numerous relief pitchers yesterday as well. Arizona didn't use quite
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: as many, but their bullpen is still bad. So late
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: in this game, I could see more runs being scored.
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: The starting pitching is a little bit questionable as well.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: Zach Gallon is pitching for Arizona. Pretty much a lost
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: season for him. He's been way worse this season than
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: what you would expect. Five point three to one ERA,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: one point three to five Whip he's actually been a
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: little bit better on the road five point zero five
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: r in the road this month, he hasn't been that
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: bad though. He's gone six innings in each start, giving
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: up two to one and run nine to three strike
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio, so he's been okay this month. His
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: team has won both of his games. One was at
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: that stadium too, which is fairly impressive to pitch well
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: in that ballpark. And then he pitched well against Colorado,
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: which I don't think you really will give him accolades
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: for that. His numbers against Texas are actually good though,
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: in a big one hundred and twenty one at bat
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: sample size thirty nine to ten, strike a walker ratio
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: two fifteen average a lot five to seventy two oh ps,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: and he's only allowed two home runs. So he does
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: pitch well against Texas. He does fitch well on the road,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: so I could see an argument the Gallon will pitch
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: well in this game going up against Merrill Kelly, who
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: I believe has made two starts now for Texas. He's
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: been pretty good overall of the season three point three
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: eighty RA, one point oh eight whip. He's been a
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: little bit worse at home three point seven to one ERA,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: but that includes his numbers with Arizona and that's a
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: hitter friendly park. So this is an interesting game, man,
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: because he's pitching against his former team. So he got
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: traded to Texas, he's now on a team that might
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: make the playoffs, or as Arizona will not make the playoffs.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: But now he's pitched for the first time against his
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: former team, and usually that will pump a pitcher up. Man.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: When you get to pitch against your former team, that
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: usually is a motivational spot for them. Kelly did really
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: bad in his most recent starting against Philly. That is
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: a good offense, five walks compared to four strikeouts, allowed
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: four and runs. Failed to make it five innings, so
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: it wasn't good. His first start was better with Texas,
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: going five to two thirds, six strikeouts, no walks along
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: two earned runs against Seattle.
• 21:29
  Speaker 2: I'm kind of expecting him to come out.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: And pitch a little bit better in this game, and
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: the Diamondbacks haven't seen a whole lot of them. Three
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: of their hitters have faced him before because of course
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: he was on their team for a while. Eleven at bats,
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: six strikeouts, no walks, no extra base HiT's own ninety
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: one average one eighty two oh ps. So I can
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: see arguments that this is kind of a sneaky under
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: type of game here, But I would go under in
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: the first five innings. In this game, we have ninety
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: five percent of the cash, only ninety percent of tickets,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: only eighty percent of the cash on the over, and
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: the totals just kind of sitting in the eight range,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: which is kind of no man's land there. I would
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: probably go first five innings under in this game, man,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: because I could definitely see the argument that both of
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: these pitchers, even though Gallon has bad numbers this year,
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: all the stuff that I said him versus Kelly, it
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: looks like they both might actually pitch well in this game.
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of the way that I'm leading in
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: this game. Texas is up for minus one forty one
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: forty five, eighty seven percent of tickets, only eighty three
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash, so it looks like some of
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: the money is actually fading a public Texas team and
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: grabbing Arizona as the underdog here. If I were to
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: do that, I mean, I could see the argument for that,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: and maybe you actually want to leave the bullpens in
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: the game for that one, because Texas does have an
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: overworked bullpen, which kind of takes away their bullpen advantage
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: a little bit.
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: Arizona definitely has.
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: A hitting advantage, but I don't want to I don't
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: really love that idea, though it seems close like it
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: seems tough to me to do that. I think the
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: way that I would lean in that game again is
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: under first five innings. I'm tempted to actually make that
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: a play, but I'm not gonna do it. San Diego
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: at San Francisco. San Diego won again yesterday. San Francisco
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: on a four game lost streak. San Francisco a couple
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: games below five hundred. They're looking like they might be
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: dead team at this point man in San Diego certainly
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: in the playoff hunt here, so it's not looking very
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: good for.
• 23:21
  Speaker 2: San Diego in this one. Actually, hold on, let me
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: check it out.
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: I don't think I checked my audio and I started
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: out hopefully I don't just start over. I assume my
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: mic audio is fine, though, right, you guys can let
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: me know. I'll you zero people who are probably in
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: here now, except maybe Andrew is still here because he
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: wants to hear me talk about Anaheim. His anim angels
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: are doing pretty well here. I'm doing all right here,
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: all right, Yeah, So San Diego won again yesterday. They're
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: certainly playing for playoff positioning right now and whatever, San Diego.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Both of these bullpens are good. San Diego tends to
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: use their bullpen more than what I would like, so
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: they're bullpen usage is higher this Sar Francisco's, but they're
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: still both pretty good bullpens, pretty bad offenses. I think
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: you give the slight bullpen ash to Sar Francisco. I
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: would say, just because of the rest. San Diego has
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: a slightly better hitting team. And then the starting pitching
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: matchup somewhat interesting, with Nick Pavetta pitching for San Diego
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: having a good season two point nine four ERA.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: Point nine to six WHIP.
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: He is somewhat worse on the road though, three point
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: six to seven e RA, although this is a pitcher
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: friendly park here, just like his home stadium. Is coming
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: up a bad start against his former team and my team,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: the Boston Red Sox, or he gave up five and
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: runs at home to the Red Sox and took a
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: loss in that one. Three walks in that game as well.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: But prior to that he was pitching really well. He
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: hadn't given up more than touring runs in any start
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: going all the way back into late June, and need
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: allowed one or fewer in all but one of those starts,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: So he is pitching well aside from this Red Sox game,
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: which you might say it was a little bit of
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: an outlier, so I'm not gonna beat him up really
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: for that. His numbers against s Francisco or okay in
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: ninety at bats thirty two to five strike a walk
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: ratios really good. Two fifty six batting average is pretty low.
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: Seven to sixty one ohps is a little bit high,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: mostly because he's allowed ten doubles in addition to the
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: two one runs allowed, But overall, I think he does
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: do okay against them. San Francisco Kaiwai Tang listed as
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: the starter for them. Not good numbers this year five
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: point four one point three two whip although he has
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: a zero here.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: At home, but he's only made two appearances.
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: This year and he had a bad start. These were
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: both starts for him, although I think he had no
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: starts in his major league career until this year, had
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: a bad start against the Mets, or he didn't make
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: it through four innings, walked three guys, lowed five runs
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: on the road. But at home he actually had a
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: good starting against Washington, actually shut them out for five
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: innings and threw fewer pitches in that one than he
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: did against the Mets, so he was really efficient. But
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: I'm still not sure that he's gonna go that deep
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: into this game, man, because I don't know if he's
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: on like a pitch count or anything. To me, it
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: doesn't seem like he's a guy that's gonna be like
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: a full fledged starter, like I haven't. We haven't seen
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: him do that yet. We haven't seen him throw more
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: than sixty seven pitches, so I'm expecting that he won't
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: do that, so he might not last too long in
• 26:12
  Speaker 1: this game. San Diego only has nine at bats against,
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: so they do have with three thirty three average and
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: nine to fifty six ops against him one to one
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: strike a walk ratio, so they've seen him a little bit,
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: but he is somewhat unfamiliar to them. Nick Pavetta, I mean,
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: you gotta say that he's the more trustworthy of the
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: two starters here. The money I think is probably coming
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: in against San Diego though, because home underdogs has been
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: a pretty good bet in Major League Baseball just in general,
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: especially this year. Seventy percent of tickets, only fifty seven
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on. San Diego is a minus
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: one forty five road favorite, so the money looks like
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: it's fading.
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: San Diego is the road favorite there.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: I'm not ready to do that, but I think some
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: of it is because the price is probably a little
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: bit too high on San Diego.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: But San Francisco just has him again. Get done.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: Man. I think maybe still should trust Nick Pavetta a
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: little bit more, so I'm not gonna come in and
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: do that. Philadelphia at Cincinnati, this starting pitching matchup. I
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: looked at this and I said, I want to go
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: under in this game until I dug into the pitching
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: matchup a little more because it still could happen, because
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: this looks like a really, really good pitching matchup with
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: two really good starting pitchers on the mound. Cincinnati won
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: yesterday after losing the first game of the series. Both
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: of these teams are still fighting. Cincinnati might be able
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: to still make the playoffs, and Philly might actually be
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: a little bit less motivated coming into this game because
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: I think they're well on top of their division right now.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: They're definitely gonna make the playoffs. Cincinnati, I say, I
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: would say as the slightly better bullpen. Both bullpens are
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: pretty rest set actually right now, not a bad rest
• 27:45
  Speaker 1: scenario for either bullpen. Philly has the better offense with
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: this starting pitching matchup.
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: I you like pitching.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Duels, this could be one, but it's possible that it
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: won't be Christopher Sanchez pitching. And after Skeens got kind
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: of beat up yesterday, my people were talking about Christopher
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: Sanchez potentially being the cy young winner in the National
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: League and he didn't even make the All Star Game,
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: which I said was bs that he didn't because he's
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: having a really good season and for the most part,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: he's been under the raidar two point three six ERA
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: one point eight whip pier for Philly, very similar home
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: and away numbers.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: This month.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: He's been dominant, giving up one run total in fourteen innings,
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: twelve strikeouts, two walks, eleven hits, a lot of point
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: six fourty RA last month one point nine to five
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: ERA thirty six to five strike out walk ratio. He's
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: only allowed more than one earned run in any start,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: in any start going all the way back to mid June,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: and you have to go all the way back into
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: late May to f I to start regive it more
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: than two urn runs besides that one weirdly bad start
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: against the White Sox, which still wasn't even that bad
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: really recently. So Sanchez he's pretty much dominating man. But
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: you started digging into these specific matchup numbers, and it's
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: interesting that both starting is actually a bad specific matchup.
• 29:02
  Speaker 2: Stats twenty seven at bats.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: I know it's not a big sample size, but the
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Reds have been in pretty well three seventy batting average
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: eight twenty one ops, so I hesitate a little bit though,
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: although I think recent form does matter more so I
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: do think Sanchez. I think it's more likely that he
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: pitches well than not. And I'm gonna say the same
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: thing about Hunter Green, who is coming back for the Reds.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: Although again, when you have a guy, a young guy
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: like this was coming back from the DL, sometimes they
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: take a little while to get used to pitching again,
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: although of course they've definitely made like rehab starts and
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: pitched in the miners like they're not coming in totally
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: cold here, but they haven't pitched in the majors for
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: a while. Sometimes I like it, especially with a more
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: veteran pitcher. I think they get a little bit undervalued
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: when they're coming back from the DL or IL, but
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: maybe not when they're like a young pitcher and they're
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: less used to it. Although Green he's been like kind
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: of on and off of the IL for a bit now, Man,
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: and then he comes out and he vomits on the
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: mound and whatever.
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: But for the last couple of seasons he's been really good.
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: And even when he wasn't pitching well in the majors
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: earlier in his career, I looked at his stats and
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: I said, this guy is gonna be good. Man.
• 30:07
  Speaker 2: I do like him this season.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: His numbers are good two point seven two ERA, point
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: nine to seven whip And if Cincinnati is gonna make
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: a late playoff push here, they need this guy in
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: the rotation. Man. The one two punch with him an
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: Abbot both in the rotation would be pretty sick for
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati here, Man Hunter Green. He is better at home
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: as well, even though it's a pretty hitter friendly park.
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: A two point one two ERA at home so he
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: pitches well at home. He was pitching pretty well before
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: he went on the d L as well. He'd allowed
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: no more than touring runs in any start over the
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: past month or so. Before he went down in early June.
• 30:42
  Speaker 1: He's allowed more than touring runs only once on the season,
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: and only once is he allowed more than three iron
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: runs or He's allowed more than two and runs twice
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: and more than three earned runs once.
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: So he is pitching well.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: His strikeout rates really crazy, doesn't allow a lot of
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: hits is walk rate is fairly low as well. He's good, man,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: I mean, we get it. He's definitely good, but he
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: might take a little while to readjust. And his numbers
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: against the Phillies are not good. I mean, we know
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: they were a good offense. He has fifty two at
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: bats against some fourteen to four strike a walk ratio
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: is good, but a three to zero way to average
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: and eight seventy six obs is not that good. So again,
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: both starting pitchers on the surface, I said, this is
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: gonna be an under and then I looked at the
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: starting pitching matchup numbers and I said, oh shit, so
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: I definitely have a little there's reason for me to
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: pause on that. If I was gonna go under, I
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: would still probably agree with doing it in the first
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: five innings because I think it's probably more likely that
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: the pitchers do well than that they don't.
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: But the money looks like it's kind.
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: Of disagreeing with that a little bit, although the juice
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: on the eight and a half over has gone down
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: a little bit. But we do see sixty four percent
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: of tickets only fifty nine percent of the cash on
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: the under so we'll see what happens with that. And
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: the money seems to be coming in pretty strong market
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: indicator on the reds Philly down for my one won
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: twenty one seventy percent of tickets, only fifty two percent
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: of the cash. So again, Cincinnati one of those home
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: underdogs there, and they do have a good picture on
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: the mound, so I could see some arguments for that
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: as well. Again, just getting a pretty good price on
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati at the very least. You gotta hope the Green
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: is ready to go though, you know, and sometimes the
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: pitcher will be a bit undervalued, man, And I think
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: some of it is that Sanchez is getting all this
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: hype now all of a sudden, and that Green is
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: completely under the radar right now. Because he's been hurt,
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: people still don't really know how good he is, so
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: I think that is probably overvalue in Philadelphia a little bit.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: The public's gonna be on the team that has a
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: better record in Philadelphia.
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: But Cincinnati again.
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: Might have a little bit of extra motivation there as well,
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: so I don't really disagree with the red side there.
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: Seattle at Baltimore, this is a pitching matchup. It looks
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: like it could be interesting as well. Baltimore lost the
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: first game of this series. The series started yesterday and
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: Seattle won the game one to nothing. Seattle does have
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: the better of the two bullpens. Seattle has the better
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: offense as well. Neither bullpen has seen a lot of
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: usage at all, so we do have some rested bullpens here.
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: So if you did want to go under on this
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: one full game might still be okay in a game
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: like this where the bullpen's are at least rested. Even
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: though Baltimore is kind of a questionable bullpen Logan Gilbert
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: is pitching for Seattle. He is one of their best
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: pitchers three point three five ERA point nine to eight whip.
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: Although like with all Seattle's pitchers, he is worse on
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: the road, and he is significantly worse on the road
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: five point two eighty RA. So that's where I start
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: dialing it back a little bit and thinking, oh, man,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: do I really want to go with an under in
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: this game? Because Gilbert is bad on the road. He's
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: been pretty good this month and two starts Seattle won
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: both of the starts thirteen to three, strike a walk raceio,
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: eleven innings, give up four and runs three point two
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: seven e RA. He's at least he's given up four
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: or fewer in runs at every start on the entire season,
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: so that's pretty good. He was injured for a little
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: bit of it. Mostly he's been pitching well. Man, his
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: team is one a bunch.
• 34:01
  Speaker 2: Of his starts, what is that?
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: It's six of his last eight starts his team is
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: one behind him. So generally he is pitching well and
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: his numbers are fairly decent against pretty good, I would
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: say against Baltimore. It's a small twenty four at bat
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: sample size two away at average allowed seven to thirteen
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: ops with a nine to three strike a walk ratio.
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: So Gilbert, even though he is bet on the road,
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: this might be a position where he might pitch better
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: than he usually.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: Does on the road.
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: Because it's a pretty weak Baltimore offense, it doesn't do
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: well against him and Trevor Rodgers, who's been a complete surprise,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: because again, he was a guy that I was saying, well,
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: he wasn't that good when he was on Miami a
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: couple of years ago. He wasn't really good when he
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: was in the minors. This year, and all of a sudden,
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: he's been really good for Baltimore. He's been their best
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: starter or a one point four to four ERA point
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: eight three whip. I mean, I don't see any way
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: that he keeps those numbers up and keeps them that good,
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: but he has been really good, and he has a
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: point four to two ERA at home, which is insane.
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: He's pitching really well this two starts, going fourteen combined
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: innings against the Cubs and Philadelphia, both on the road,
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: and he only allowed one on and run in each
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: of them, and had a fourteen to two strike a
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, So he pretty much dominated two of the
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: best lineups in all of baseball, both on the road.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: So I think it's probably we got to be ready
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: to say Rogers is actually pretty good.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: He's in good form right now.
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: He hasn't allowed more than two eur in runs since
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: his second appearance of the entire season, and he has
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: never allowed more than three earn runs this entire season.
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: He's pitching really well, man, I mean, there's no no
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: other way to put it.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: Really.
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: He's won six of his last eight starts as well.
• 35:37
  Speaker 1: I think it's six of eight, I think on the
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: entire season as well as something like that. His numbers
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: are not good against the Mariners, man, So that's the
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: other hesitation that I have here with wanting to go
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: under here. I mean, both pitchers are pitching really well.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: They're good, so that is definitely a reason to consider
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: an under in this game. But these things just give
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: me a bit of a hesitation, man. I don't use
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: like the matchup numbers as like the be all end here,
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: but they definitely are kind of like a clinching factor
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: for me.
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: Twenty six at bats.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: I know it's not a big sample size, but Rogers
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: is allowed of three forty six average one ops three
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: home runs, with two of them from a rose of
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: rain against the Mariners at a six to three strike
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio. So those are my hesitations on that
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: that Gilbert is really bad on the road typically and
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: Rogers not good specifically against Seattle. But the way these
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: pitchers have been pitching this season, I think I still
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: give the nod towards the under. But we see sixty
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: three percent of tickets on the under and fifty percent
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the over, so seems to be
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: disagreeing with me a little bit. Total did drop from
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: nine to eight and a half though, to juice to
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: the under, which is a somewhat significant move from nine
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: juice to the over too. So going through a key
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: number of nine in baseball like that does tell you
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: that that was a fairly significant move. I would still
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: lean that way under or under. In the first five
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: innings here money has I mean the money line dropped
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: on Seattle again road favorite here down for minus one
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: forty five to minus one three year. But they seem
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: to be getting the cash fifty eight percent of tickets
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of the cash on them. I mean,
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: I could see that if you're looking at the matchup
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: numbers as a clincher, Gilbert has the better matchup numbers
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: over Rogers. Seattle is the better team overall, do you
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: give Gilbert the matchup advantage over Rogers, Maybe you do,
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: and then Seattle does have the advantage I think throughout
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: the rest of the game, So maybe that's part of
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: the reason why. And Seattle, of course is the team
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: that has somebody to play for, whereas Baltimore does not.
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: So all things to keep in mind there, Miami at Cleveland,
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: this was close to being a play for me. Man,
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: there's really just kind of one factor that's kind of
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: keeping me away from playing an under in this game
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: between Miami and Cleveland, other than the fact that I
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: don't love either bullpen either.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: Really, bullpen saw some use suggest today.
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: Cleveland used four relief pitchers, but they were rested the
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: day before that, so both teams were off the day
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: before that, So the bullpen rest scenario is still okay.
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: Miami used three leavers.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: Yesterday, but we're looking at a couple of mediocre bullpens. Cleveland's,
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: I think it's the somewhat better than Cleveland is actually
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than mediocre. Miami is a little
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: bit down further. Miami's is in kind of the bottom third.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: So worry about the bullpens a little bit. I could
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: still see the argument for first five under as well,
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: though the total is so low that you might not
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: be able to find a good number on the first five.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: You know, me and I don't love those three and
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: a halfs, even though I was giving out some of
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: them earlier in the season. If you find it under
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: four in the first five innings, maybe that's worth considering.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: If you find it under eight for the full game,
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: which I did see that out there too, maybe that's
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: worth considering as well.
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: But you don't have to worry.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: Again, bullpen's a little bit, but at least they're rested.
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: And neither offense is that good, So that's the other
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: factor here. Cleveland is actually like a bottom several offense
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: in all of baseball. Miami is, I think, barely better
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: than the bottom third. I would say, lets look at
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: the hitting stats here real quick. I don't know where
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: they're at now. Yeah, I mean that's basically exactly what
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: I said is correct there. Yeah, So yeah, that's what
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: you got going on in this game. And then from
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Miami you have Yuri Perez pitching. You know, I've been
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: praising this guy for a while now. He's been pitching
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: quite well for the most part. Again, he's the guy
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: that started his career really early on, and he was
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: almost I would say dominant when he was even as
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: young as twenty years old. He had some pretty serious injuries,
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: came back this year after missing I think an entire season,
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: was struggling for a bit, But since then he's been
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: pitching really well, except for his most recent start, which
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about in a second, but overall, three point
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: two five ERA one point oh one whip. I definitely
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: like this guy. He is definitely good. He has been
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: worse on the road though, four point oh one er
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: in the road, so he does struggle a bit on
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: the road. Last start was on the road, and he
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: didn't pitch particularly well against Atlanta. Gave up three on runs,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: which definitely hurt his cause. There five and runs a
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: lot of five innings pitch five and a third innings pitch.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: But he also only struck out one and walk two guys,
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: so his walk numbers are a bit of a concern,
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: with multiple walks now in four straight starts, only going
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: more than five innings in one of those starts, so
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: his dominant run has kind of faded a little bit here.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: So I am worried that he's got a little bit
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: out of form here, which worries me a little bit
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: as far as the under But Cleveland has barely seen
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: him before. Only two of their hitters have seen him
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: before and they're zero for five with three strikeouts off him.
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: So I do think Perez may have the ability to
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: bounce back here against a bad offense that has pretty
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: much never seen him before. So that should be an
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: advantage to a young guy like Perez that does have
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: really good stuff. So this could be a bounce back
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: spot for him. So but I hesitate a little bit
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: with his recent form. And I'll tell you why I
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: hesitate with Gavin Williams a little bit in a second.
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: Well a couple of reasons.
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: Gavin Williams, pitcher for Cleveland ERA, is actually quite good
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: three point one seven ERA, but his whip is fairly
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: high one point three. So he's a guy that he's
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: one of those guys I can't quite figure out man,
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: because the whip like that tells me that he's not
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: as good as his ra suggests, but he does have
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: glimpses where he's quite good. I think he induces a
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: lot of ground balls to kind of get out of
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: some of these. I'll have to look at that, and
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: well'll look at that right now. Actually, yeah, he does
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: get a lot of a decent amount of ground balls,
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: I guess, yeah, So that's part of the reason why
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: he does kind of get out of some of these jams.
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: But to me, I think you still can't put guys
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: on base like this and get away with it. He
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: is better at home two point seven to seventy RRAs,
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: so his split is good in this game, and he's
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: been pretty good recently. His team has won three of
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: his last four starts. He's allowed no more than two
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: earned runs in any of those starts. This month, he
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: has a point six point one ERA in two starts,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: fourteen to two thirds innings, pitch oily, allowing one ear run,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: fourteen strikeouts, but six walks. The walks are a bit
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: of a concern, And the major concern I have with
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: him is what did he just do on the road
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: against the Mets. He had a no hitter, I believe
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: with one out to go in the ninth inning. I
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: believe he carried a no hitter through eight and two
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: thirds of this game against the Mets. He had four
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: walks in the game, which isn't that good? Six strikeouts decent.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, he's good, He's not a huge strikeout guy.
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: But he had allowed no hits until the final at
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: bats of the game, and he finally allowed a hit
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: and they took him out. But Cleveland, because I mean,
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: even though it looks like they actually have some motivation here.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: So I will say, by the way, Cleveland has a
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: little bit more motivation here because I think they could
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: still technically make the playoffs in Miami. I don't believe
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Ken Well, maybe technically they still came in Miami is
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: below five hundreds, they're pretty much out of it. Cleveland
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: is above five hundred and on such a hot streak
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: right now that they might be able to do something.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: But Gavin Williams in that start, the pitchers, the pitching coaches, whatever,
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: the coaching just said, let's let him go for his
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: no hitter, man, and in.
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: Doing so, he failed to get the no hitter.
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: And he threw one hundred and twenty six pitches, which
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: is probably the most he's ever thrown in his career.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: So that's what worries me a little bit. He threw
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: one hundred pitches. A couple other times this year, and
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: he did mediocre in his couple of starts after those.
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: He wasn't terrible either start after that, but not great either. Actually,
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: he had one good start after he threw one hundred
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: pitches in a very short outing against the Dodgers where
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: he really really was unbelievably inefficient, and then he actually
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: pitched better in the next start after that one. So
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: he has gone over one hundred pitches a few times.
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: But I do worr him, Man. One hundred and twenty
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: six is a different ballgame, and when you're on the
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: verge of having a no hitter like that and you
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: fail to get it with one out remaining, you might
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: be in a bit of a hangover spot man.
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: So that's what.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Really really worries me about Gavin Williams coming into this
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: because otherwise I would probably say, yeah, go under in
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: this game. Miami's never faced him before, so he might
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of an extra edge here against Miami.
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: And they're a weaker offense than the Mets too, so
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: Miami does have a little bit of an edge in
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: that regard. I mean, excuse me, Williams does have a
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: little bit of an edge in that regard. Cleveland has
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: been playing well, by the way. They won five of
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: their last six, six of their last seven whatever that is,
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: and ten of their last twelve games, including beating Miami yesterday.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: So Cleveland again, they're playing like a team that is
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: pretty motivated right now. Now. So all of that being considered,
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: I do still lean to the under in this game,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: but I couldn't make it a play just because mostly
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: I'm really really worried about Gavin Williams coming off that
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: no hitter or no hit bid, excusing that near no
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: hitter fifty nine percent of the tickets on the over,
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: sixty three percent of the cash on the under money
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: is coming in the under. It is a low total
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: for a reason. Here man money coming in in Cleveland
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: as well, eighty six percent of tickets eighty nine percent
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: of the cash on for minus one twenty five to
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: twenty eight. I mean, they are the somewhat better team.
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: I would agree with that. Miami actually has a really
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: bad run differential, way worse than what the record would indicate.
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: They're like probably like negative sixty or so runs, I
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: would guess, are just kind of ridiculous that their record
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: is even anywhere close to where it is similar to Anaheim.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: I believe I might have that run differential wrong, but
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: I know it's not good. So we'll see what happens
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: in that game, man. But I still think leaning towards
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: the Unders a way to look in that game. I
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: just have and pause on that. Minnesota at Yankees, they'll
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: give that out in the best bet segment. Cubs at Toronto. Unfortunately,
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: I had this game wrong yesterday. Toronto with the five
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: to one win yesterday, despite being in a return home
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: spot as well, Toronto's got the better of these two bullpends.
• 45:15
  Speaker 2: But they used five.
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: Relief pitchers yesterday, so they're bullpen a little bit unrested.
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: But so did the Dodgers.
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: Both teams use five relief pitchers, so I think the
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: bullpen edge still goes to Toronto here because their bullpen is
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: the or excuse me, I'm looking at.
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: Why am I looking at the Dodgers? The Cubs? My apologies.
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: The Cubs only use one.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: They've only used one relief pitcher in the last two days,
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: and they've actually used two relief pitches across the last
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: three days, so I apologize my mistake. The bullpen edge
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: has to go to the Cubs at this point, I
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: think their bullpen is not that much worse than Toronto's,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: if at all, and now they're bullpen's more rested.
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: You got to give the Cubs the bullpen edge.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: I think they have the offensive edge as well, and
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: then looking at the starting pitching at Chicago might want
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: to bounce back after that game yesterday. Kate Horton is
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: on the mount for the Cubs. And he's a guy,
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: He's a young guy. Didn't really think he was that good,
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: but now I'm looking at his numbers and all of
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: a sudden, maybe a guy to consider that he's actually
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: fairly good. I mean three point one eighty RA, one
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: point two two whip and what I think is maybe
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: his rookie campaign here. Yeah, he hasn't been in the
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: majors until this year. He is a lot worse on
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: the road though, five point one to nine ERA, so
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: that is something to consider. He's been way worse on
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: the road this month. He has a zero ERA. He
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed to run in four straight starts now and
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: in five of the last six he hasn't allowed any.
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: Runs, which is insane.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: But you do have to keep in mind the fact
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: that four of those five starts are all at home,
• 46:40
  Speaker 1: including his last two, so he seems to just be
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: really really good at home this month. He does have
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: a nine to three strike at walk Racer. He's still
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: not going that deep into starts. He's only made it
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: to six or more innings three times this entire season,
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: which is not that great, but overall he is fitching
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: a lot better than he was earlier. Man he's limiting
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: the runs that gets scored off of him in a
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: major way, so he is actually still pitching fairly well.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: But again I do hesitate about him on the road.
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Toronto only has one guy who's seen him before, Ty
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: France is zero for two with a strikeout off him.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: So Horton does have an unfamiliarity edge.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: You know Horton.
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: If your guys are unfamiliar with Horton, you should point
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: them to the Libertarian Institute, Baby Kate Horton, though he
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: is in good for him right now, and Toronto doesn't
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: have any familiarity with him really, so Horton does have
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: some advantages in this game, but I worry about him
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: on the road. Kevin Gaussman pitching for Toronto, having a
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: pretty good season more or less, he's been kind of
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: up and down. Three point eight five ERA, one point
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: eight whip on the season, pretty good. He is a
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: little bit worse at home four point two six the
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: ra at home coming off a really good start against
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: Colorado in course Field, then we know Colorado doesn't hit well,
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: but doing that of course Field is still fairly impressive.
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: Seven innings long, one and run, eight strikeouts, two walks,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: pretty good. But his prior start he wasn't that good,
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: giving up five and runs against the Royals, who are
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: not a good offense.
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: But he kind of.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: Got unlucky in a way because he gave up two
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: on runs kind of at the wrong time in that game,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: he did still have five strikeouts and no walks. And
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: if you go all the way back through his last
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: start in June, he's allowed more than two hour in
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: runs only once besides that five and run game, so
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: only twice since then, and only three or more in
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: runs twice, and one was a start at the A's Stadium,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: which is a very hitter friendly park, so you might
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: give him a little bit of a pass for that
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: as well, and he still held him to three on runs.
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: Gousman, he is still.
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: Pitching fairly well overall. He has a thirteen to two
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: strike out walk ratio this month over his last couple
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: of starts.
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: But he's got to face the Cubs here.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: Man, He's facing a really good lineup, and the Cubs
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: do hit him pretty well in eighty two at bats
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: in their careers. Nineteen to nine strike at walk ratio
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: is definitely not that great a ratio three zero five
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: average and eight fifty seven ops allowed. So Gousman does
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: struggle against the Cubs here. Looking at what the the
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: market is looking like here, it looks like Toronto's the
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: public home favored again and the money kind of fading them.
• 49:12
  Speaker 1: They're up for minus one twenty to minus one thirty,
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: but seventy percent of tickets only sixty one percent of
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: the cash. So just like yesterday, it looks like the
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: public is kind of on this Toronto train here, thinking well, oh,
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: Toronto's in first place. They just won again yesterday. Toronto
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: looking fairly good. Cubs public kind of off the Cubs
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: right now with Milwaukee kind of just just destroying recently.
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: A Milwaukee being the hype of the town right now
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: or the hype of the division right now, I should say, uh,
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: Horton is kind of flying under the radar, though, so
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: if you want to lean to the Cubs in this game,
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: I don't really disagree with that. I think you could
• 49:45
  Speaker 1: argue the starting pitching matchup is a little bit of
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: a wash, and then the Cubs have the advantages otherwise
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: in the game. Money also coming in towards the under.
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: It's flipped from eight and a half juice to the
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: over to eight and a half juice to the over,
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: slightly less eighty three percent of tickets on the over
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: in fifty six percent of the cash on the under.
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: I worry a little bit about Toronto's bullpen, user the
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: bullpen is still good generally so under full game, under
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: first five innings. I don't know if I would necessarily
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: disagree with it, but I do worry about Gousman's matchup numbers,
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: So I think you could argue maybe the Cubs side
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: is the better way to look in this game, especially
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: with the matchup numbers for the starting pitchers actually looking
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: like they favor Horton in that game. Jake, what's up man?
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: Thanks for hanging out. If you hang around for the
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: best Bets segment, I will give you on what the
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: actual plays that I'm giving out on the show are
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: which will happen shortly. But I got to get through
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: these other four games here. Atlanta at the Mets. I mean, again,
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: this normally would be a pretty good divisional rivalry matchup here,
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: but the Mets, I mean, they've obviously had been the
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: better team this year, although Atlanta still really isn't necessarily.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: As bad as the record looks.
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: Atlanta actually has a positive run differential this year, I'm
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: pretty sure, or I think it's slight, but I think
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: they do, which is crazy. They're that far below five hundred.
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: The Mets had lost a bunch of games in a row.
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: The Mets are on it's huge slide, but they just
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: beat up Atlanta thirteen to five yesterday. And even though
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: Atlanta might be a little bit embarrassed by that and
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: want to bounce back from that and maybe try to
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: spoil the Mets season a little bit, here, Mets are
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: still fighting to get into the playoffs, Man, and Atlanta's
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: out of it. So the Mets need the game a
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: little bit more.
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: In the fact that they broke.
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: That long Los streak, that could help break that losing momentum. Man,
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: because when you've lost that many games in a row,
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: you got to get that monkey.
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: Off your back, man.
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: So the Mets were able to do that yesterday, So
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: that is a little bit of a positive. The Mets
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: have the better offense out of these two offenses. Bullpen usage.
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: Mets only us two relief pitchers yesterday and didn't play
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: the day before that. Atlanta didn't play yesterday. I didn't
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: play the game before that either. They only use one
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: relief pitcher yesterday. So the bullpen's arrested. I'll probably say
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: that the Mets probably still have the somewhat better bullpen.
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: Let me see here they are.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they're a little.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: Bit middle of the pack. But or no, that's hitting.
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: What am I saying? Where's the Mets bullpen at? I
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: know the Mets were better earlier in the year. Yeah,
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: there's still like a middle of the pack bullpen. Braves
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: I think is a bit worse. Right. Where are the
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: Braves that I don't even know at this point, man,
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: because he's actually the Braves in Whip they're actually fifth
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball. Their era bullpen wise is significantly worse.
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: So Braves bullpen kind of difficult to gauge. Man, I
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: don't think they're actually as good as the fifth best
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: bullpen in baseball. They certainly don't have a starting pitching matchup.
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't say either, just on the surface of it.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: Carlos Carrasco pitching for Atlanta. He's an old journeyman pitcher
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: man who really is only in the Braves rotation because
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: they have so many injuries that kind of just had
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: to pick them up off the scrap heap. And he's
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: not been good this year between pitching with the Yankees
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: earlier in the season and now with the Braves. Six
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: and he was in the minors for quite a while.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: Six point one eighty r a, one point five eight
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: whip those are bad numbers.
• 52:55
  Speaker 2: He's a little bit better.
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: Well, actually he's worse on the road. Excuse me where
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: he is the right seven point six to four yard
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: in the road.
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: That's not good.
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: And Landa picked him up and he had an okay
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: start in his first game against Cincinnati on the road,
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: giving up three on runs at six innings, five strikeouts,
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: two walks. But in his most recent outing against a
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: Miami offense, it doesn't hit that well. He got blasted
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: for six earned runs on nine hits in five and
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: two thirds at home as well two strikeouts, two walks.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: So Carrasco, I don't think he's really any good man.
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: I don't think he's gonna be good in this game either. However,
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: somehow the Mets only have three hitters have ever faced
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: him before, even though Carrasco has been around for forever.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: I don't really see how the Mets have never seen
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: him before, but I know he was on the Mets
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: for a few seasons somewhat recently, so I guess the
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: Mets have a lot of these young guys that just
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: haven't seen him before. The guys that have seen him,
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: only three guys have seen him before, and they actually
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: have not done well against him.
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: In twenty three at bats.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: Soto has a home run, but overall the one to
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: seventy four average off him five forty four oh ps
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: and uh three to two strike at walk right shore,
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: and they only have four hits against him in twenty
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: three at bats. So Carrasco does have fairly good numbers
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: against the Mets, and the unfamiliarity aspect of him might
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: be a little bit advantageous for him. But I still
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: don't think you can trust him, man, I still would
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: guess that he's not gonna pitch well. David Peterson pitching
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: for the Mets. He's another one of those guys that
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: I struggle to figure out.
• 54:22
  Speaker 2: But his numbers are pretty good.
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: Even his whip isn't that bad at this point two
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: point nine to eighty RA one point two to three
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: whip on the season. He's better at home as well,
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: two point three three ERA at home, so his splits
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: are on the right side, whereas Carrascos are not. He's
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: been a little bit worse recently. He's walked multiple guys
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: in three straight outings this month. He has a four
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: point five r and two starts the Mets lost both
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: of them, and an eleven to four strike at walk
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: ratio allowed two and four and runs and six innings
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: in both of those starts, which wasn't that bad. But
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: he was really good in the month of July, so
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: he's actually starting to slide back a little bit. So
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: he's not in his greatest form right now. Does have
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: good numbers against the Braves, though, in ninety five at bats,
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: twenty five to six strike a walk ratio, six home
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: runs allowed, but four of them are Matt Olson, so
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: if he's able to pitch around him, he could probably
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: shut down the Braves for the most part. They only
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: have a two hundred average against him in six to
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: sixty nine ops. So even though Peterson looks like he's
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: sliding a little bit, you gotta trust him more than
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: you trust Carrasco here. So I do think the Mets
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: pretty much have an edge across the board here, but
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: you have to pay a big price for them. They're
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: up to minus one ninety three on the money line
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: eighty percent and tickets only sixty eight percent of the cash,
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: so the cash is fading the Mets as far as
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: the money line's concerned here. I would not want to
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: come in and really play the side in this game
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: either way, because the market read looks like it's against
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: the Mets. But the Mets I do think I have
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: the advantages in this game if you wanted to go
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: over the Mets team total and just have them beating
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: Carrasco a little bit, and maybe that's not a horrible
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: way to look, but Corosco does have decent against them,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: at least an unfamiliarity against them. So if you look
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: at just the matchup numbers, the under might actually make
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: sense in this game, eighty seven percent of tickets on
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: the over, but eighty six percent of the cash on
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: the under. Total looks like it ticked up to nine
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: juice to the under, but the money looks like it's
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: actually coming in on the under. So I don't really
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: want to ever play it under with Carrasco starting, but
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: maybe in this particular matchup, it's not the worst thing.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: The bullpens are at least somewhat rested, or you can
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: go first five under.
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna like, I'm not gonna really.
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: Disagree with it. I just have hesitations about it. My
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: Red Sox are at Houston. This starting pitching matchup, just
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: on the surface looks like it is so one side
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: and in favor of Houston. Very unfortunate. You went from
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox being a minus one seventy favorite in
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: the first game of this series with Crochet on the
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: mound and the Red Sox losing the game, to now
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: Houston being a minus one fifty five favorite or whatever.
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: But the value might be going against the favorites, man,
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: because you know that a favorite is usually gonna be
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: favored by a little bit too much in the market,
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: so that was the case with Crochet on the mound. Unfortunately,
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: but the Red Sox won yesterday in blowout fashion. Dustin
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: May I didn't even look at his stat line, but
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: I guess he didn't pitch badly for the Red Sox
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: as they wound up winning. I believe fourteen to one
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: was the final and Houston didn't even have a run
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: until very late in the game. So the Red Sox
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: absolutely beat them up yesterday. This game, I mean, both
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: teams need to show up here. They're both fighting for
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: playoff positioning whatever. Red Sox probably needed a little bit
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: more because they're in the wild card huntier Houston, I
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: think is at least leading their division by a significant amount.
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens are fairly good. I think the Red Sox
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: he give the Red Sox a little bit of an
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: offensive edgend. They do have a somewhat better offense. Red
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: Sox only use two relief pitchers yesterday. Houston used three,
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: using Colton Gordon and Long Relief though to kind of
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: save the rest of their bullpens.
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: So Houston.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: I would probably give Youston slight bullpen age, but only slight.
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: Both bullpens are pretty decent walker Bueller though, pitching for
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox. I'm not in a position where I
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: could trust this guy. I don't think they should have
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: picked him up. Five point four era, one point five
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: to six whip is awful. He's putting way too many
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: guys on base, and he's been really bad on the
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: road six point five two roadyr not good. Although just
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: looking at the runs that he's allowed, he has an
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: alum with the three on runs and then he start
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: going all the way back into June. So he's sort
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: of becoming the new Brian Bao, I guess in a
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: way because his ERA actually looks good recently. It was
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: three point five seven in July, two point six one
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: and two starts this month, but looking at a strikeout
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: walk ratio, it tells a different story. It was twelve
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: to nine in July and four to five in this
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: month so far. And one really bad thing is he
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: just faced Houston in.
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: Fenway two starts ago and he did awful.
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: He went four and a third, Houston got nine hits
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: off him, three on runs, three walks and no rikeouts.
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: So Houston did well against Bueller in that game, and
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: now they just saw him so they're recently familiar with him,
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: so I definitely worry about that. Even though Buehler bounced
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: back with a shockingly good six inning shutout at San
• 59:11
  Speaker 1: Diego last semer. But Bueller kind of used to pitching
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: in that park because he was on the Dodgers. That
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: is a pitcher friendly park. I'm not ready to think
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: that he's gonna pitch well against Houston, man when he
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: didn't do well against Houston last time out. He has
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: multiple walks in four of his last five starts. All
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: of that is not good, and up against Houston his
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: numbers aren't great either, including that most recent start. Seventy
• 59:34
  Speaker 1: four at bats sixteen to four strike a walk ratio
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: is alright, but two eighty four average alloted seven eighty ops.
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: Those are not very good numbers. Has a lot of
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: four home runs, of all three of them are Christian Walker.
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: Walker against Walker basically there, but you gotta say Hunter
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: Brown for Houston, he is the better of the two
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: starters two point five one or a point nine to
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: eight whip on the season. This is really his first
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: season where he's been really, really good. He saw glimpses
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: of it last year where it's like he's really starting
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: to become something good this year. He's been great. I
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: don't think he's ready, Like I don't think he's totally
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: burned out yet this season either, because he hasn't reached
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: his innings pitch count on the season yet that he
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: reached the last two seasons, so I think he has
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: more in him this year. He's missed some time with
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: an injury this year, so I don't think he's like
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: totally burned out yet or anything like that. Is he
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: ras slightly better at home two point three seven. He's
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: pitching well for the most part, man. I mean he's
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer runs down three straight starts, although
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: he didn't make it six innings in two of the three.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: But he had kind of a rough July. But I
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: think he had some bad starts kind of around the
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: All Star Game because he was named to I believe,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: his first All Star Game, so I think that was
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a distraction. And then again, his
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: most recent three starts have been good and they were
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: against offenses that can hit. The A's and then Boston
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: and the Yankees on the road, So he is pitching
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: pretty well in those last two starts this month, three
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: earned runs allowed total across twelve and a third innings,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: eight hits allowed, two walls, eleven strikeouts, So he is
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: coming back into form.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 2: He is pitching well.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: But yes, the Red Sox did just see him, so
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox are now recently familiar with him. But
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: he pitched really well seven innings pitch, gave up one
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: ear and run against them, six strikeouts, one walk, so
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: the Red Sox might continue to struggle against them. Overall,
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: they don't have good numbers against him in thirty six
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: at bats two twenty two banning, Irish five to twenty
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: five ops, so I would have to lean to Houston
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: in this game. Man. I think they have the starting
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 1: pitching edge. I think they probably have a slight bullpen
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: edge too, although if you want to go first five
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: inning and just focus on the starting pitching match, I
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: think that's okay too. But the money has actually come
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: in on the Red Sox. I don't really understand why
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: Houston Demmerman has won sixty five to mit one forty
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: six fifty five percent of tickets seventy seven percent of
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Red Sox. The Red Sox look
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: like an anti public road underdog here with the money
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: coming in on them, I don't really see it. There's
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: no way that I would put my money on Walker Bueller, man,
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: even though as a Red Sox fan I hope they
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 1: actually win. But sixty eight percent of tickets on the
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: over and seventy five percent of the couch on the
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: under as well, and the totals flip from eight juice
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: to the over to eight juice to the under, so
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the under as well.
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know about that either, man. I mean I
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: could see the Hunter Brown side of that equation obviously,
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: if you're going full game on it.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, you have two decent bullpens.
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: So really the thing you have to worry about the
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: most is Walker Bueller in the under equation there. He's
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: really the only problem with the under. So I guess
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: if you go under, you go full game because you
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: have two decent bullpends there. I don't really quite see it, though. Uh,
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: Dodgers in Anaheim. This is getting ridiculous now. Is Anaheim
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: has now won all five games against the Dodgers this season.
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: Is crazy. The Dodgers, you gotta think they're gonna be
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: motivated to try to salvage something here about to get
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: swept by Anaheim. Anaheim, I don't think they're really going
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: to overlook the Dodgers though, because I mean, even though
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: they have a divisional matchup against the A's up next,
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is a big rivalry matcher, and I
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: think Anaheim it's nothing more than to sweep the Dodgers
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: on the entire season six and zero. That would be
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: crazy if that happens. I don't know that it will.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: Anaheim is the worst bullpenal though. I've been saying that
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: all series, and it hasn't It hasn't hurt them, although yesterday,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: yesterday they used all but one relief pitcher, who's their
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: long relief pitcher. Full more So, Anaeim's bullpen is definitely
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: used up here. Dodgers' bullpen not in a great rest
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: scenario either, they use five relief pitchers. Just saying the
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: Dodgers' bullpen isn't really that great either. So we have
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: two pretty bad bullpens. So I think if you're looking
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: at this game, you probably want to fade the bullpens.
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: Dodgers do have the better offense out of the two
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: mediocre offense for Anaheim, so it's starting to look like
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: maybe you want to go over in this game. But
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: looking at the starting pitching, I'm not so sure that
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: I would agree with that. Otani is pitching for the Dodgers,
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: and he's been good since he's started pitching again. This
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: year he started, he finally started pitching again, man after
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: I think, not pitching for a year and a half
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: or maybe more than that two point three seven years
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: or a one point one one whip. He's pitching well
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: this season, been pretty good both home and away. It
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: doesn't even really matter for him. Last start he actually
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: went four innings, so he's starting to they're really slowly
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: kind of ramping him up back to full starter's workload,
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: and he had eight strikeouts in those four innings against
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis allowed one or run. Nice start for him
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 1: in that start, no walk, So I think Otani he's
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: back in pitching for him, and he's pitching well, and
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: you're probably gonna see him go four innings or so
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: again in this game unless he really doesn't pitch well.
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: Anaheim only his two hitters have ever faced him before,
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: and of course Anaheim is his former team as well,
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: and now he's pitching against them eight at bats A
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: total for Anaheim against him four strikeouts, one walk, no
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: extra base hits, one hit one twenty five average three
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: forty seven. Oh ps Otani. This is gonna be again
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: his first time pitching against his former team. But yeah,
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: he is pitching well right now, and yeah, I expect
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: him to probably do well again.
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: He'll probably get you through about four.
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: Innings in this game, I would imagine, but then you
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: do have to worry about the bullpens after that. Kyle
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: Hendrix pitching for Anaheim, I don't think he's that good anymore. Man,
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: He's kind of an aging guy. But he was struggling
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: quite a bit when he was on the Cubs. But
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: with Anaheim, he actually hasn't been that bad. Four point
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 1: six three ERA, one point two to three whip really
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: isn't that bad. He's been good at home for the
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: most part, three point eight eight ERA. So as far
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: as the over scenario here, I don't know if I
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 1: necessarily want to fade Hendrix either, And he's been decent recently.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: He's allowed three or fewer earned runs down four straight starts,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: five of the last six, and actually seven of the
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: last nine. Actually no, nine of the last eleven he's
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: actually done that, so that's pretty crazy. This month, three
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: point six ERA and two starts, eight to two strike
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio, not doing too badly. He struggled a
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: little bit against Detroit, but he still didn't walk anybody
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: against Detroit, given up three on runs on the road.
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's a tough assignment there. He held the
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: White Sox to want to and run to start before that,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: So Hendrix, he's not really in terrible form right now.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 2: Dodgers do hit him well though.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: In seventy seven at bats he has an eleven to
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: fourteen strike a walk ratio, which is really bad, a
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: three point thirty eight average in nine to seventy two
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: oh ps allowed, so that's not good. And Otani has
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: a home run off him too. Three of their hitters
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: have home runs off him, So Hendrick's matchup numbers don't
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 1: look that good against the Dodgers. That is one part
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: of the equation, and maybe still look to an over here.
• 1:06:34
  Speaker 1: I probably still do lean to the over in this game,
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: but it's not saying something I'm gonna do about Otani.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: If he's out of the game still fairly early on,
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: and then you have two pretty bad bullpens that are
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: used up. You got one questionable starting pitcher on the
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: other side, so most of the components are there for
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: an over and one good offense and one decent offense.
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: The total has gone up from nine to nine and
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: a half, which it is that high for a reason.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: Fifty percent of tickets evenly split on the total, but
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: eighty one percent the cash on the over, So the
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: money is coming in on the over. And again I
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: think the public might look at this and say, oh,
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: Tani is pitching under. Might be a little bit more,
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: you know, it might be a little bit more enticing
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: to go on an under with an Otani game. But yeah,
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: I would probably lean to the over slightly. And then
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: the money looks like it is coming in on the
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: Dodgers too, up for minus one ninety five to minus
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: one ninety seven. I mean, I think they do have
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: a starting pitching edge. If you really want the Dodgers,
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: I would say you probably want to go over their
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: team total seventy eight percent of tickets, eighty six percent
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: of the cash coming in on the Dodgers. But I
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: would just go with the Dodgers to score a lot
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: against Anaheim's potentially bad starting pitcher and bad bullpen Tampa
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: at the A's to close this thing up before I
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: get to best bet. A's won the first game of
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: the series, surprisingly in return home spot wasn't a good
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: spot for them. Then they got shut out six to
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: nothing yesterday, so the A's may want to bounce back
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: from that, but I think they are on the worst
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: end of this starting pitching matchup here. Man, the A's
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: do have the better offense, but I also think Tampa
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: has the better bullpen, so I think Tampa. You got
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: to give Tampa the edge pitching wise across the board
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: here the A's. Neither team have used a lot of
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: their bullpen recently, but the A's used a little bit
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: more of their's yesterday too, so the edge is looking
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: like it's sorts Tampa, even tho, I think you're looking
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: at two teams that are both basically out of it now.
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: But the starting pitching I think is a fairly strong
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: edge for Tampa. With Drew Rasmussen on the mound, he's
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: having a good season two point six six ERA one
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: whip and why Tampa's pitch at coaches have actually been
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: limiting his pitch count such that they're really keeping him fresh.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: So it's been working out for him. And even though
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: he's not going that deep into most of his games,
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 1: he's getting you through like five innings, not throwing many pitches,
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: not allowing many runs. And a good thing about Tampa
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: Bay here is that, as I've been saying throughout this series,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: they're actually used to playing in a weird hitter friendly
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: stadium temporary home like the A's have here in Sacramento.
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: Because Tampa is playing and won this year at Steinberner
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: Field Spring training stadium, So that might help these pitchers a.
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: Little bit too.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: Rasmussen is a little bit worse on the road two
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: point eight five year round the road, so he's actually
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: pitched a little bit better at.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: Home in that hitter friendly park, so he's used to it. Man.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: He's allowed nowhere in runs the two starts this month
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: against the Dodgers ant Seattle, which is pretty good. Ten strikeouts,
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: no walks in that span, eight hits, allowing eleven to
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: third innings. Going all the way back through all of
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: his starts in July, he's allowed two or fewer in
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: runs in every outing, although in July he had some
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: short some really short outings that they were getting ready
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: for him to pitch in the All Star Game, which
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 1: he did, and then since then they've kind of ramped
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: him up again. He did have a five inning performance
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: against the Yankees where he pitched fairly well as well.
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: So he is a pretty good form right now, and
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: his numbers are pretty good.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: Against the A's.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: It's a small nineteen at bad sample size, but he
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: has the two eleven average, seven thirty nine oh ps,
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 1: six to three strike a walk ratio not great, but
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: other than that, rast numbers look okay. There, Zach, what's
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: up man? Thanks for hanging out the Royals. I did
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: talk about their game already earlier, which I don't even
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 1: remember what I said about that game at this point,
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: to be honest. You can go back and watch what
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: I said. It's not one of my plays.
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: Though.
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: J T. Ginn is going to be the starter for
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: the A's. He's kind of mediocre. I guess four point
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: three to ninety RA and one point two four whip.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 1: I think he was coming out of a bullpen until recently,
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: and he's been pretty bad in this stadium at home,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: five point five to four ERA, which isn't good since
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 1: he's joined the starting rotation. He's actually been okay, allowing
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 1: four fewer in runs in every start, failing to go
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: five innings and only one of those, but his team
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: has lost three of the four. His last two ounnings
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: have been a little bit worse, with a seven to
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: three strike a walk ratio on six point seven to
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: five ERA against Arizona, who is a good offense, but Baltimore,
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: who isn't. So I guess try to figure out all
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: that information they're trying to process it against the Rays,
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: they're actually zero for six off in lifetime. They haven't
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: seen a whole lot of them with four strikeouts one walk.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: So do with that information what you will as well,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: I guess, but I still would lean to Rasmusin's side
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: in this game.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: The money seems to be coming in on Tampa.
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 1: They're a favorite, though, one of those road favorites, but
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: this is one that the public doesn't seem to love,
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: and the money seems.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 2: To be coming in on them.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: The rough Minus won twenty you mus went twenty six.
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 1: I think the public somewhat likes the A's because they
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: have all those young, hyped hitters like Nick Kurtz. There
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: fifty four percent of tickets and sixty three percent of
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 1: the cash on Tampa.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: I don't disagree with it, and they do.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: They should have the bullpen edge as well, so I
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: would agree slightly leaning towards Tampa in that game if
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: I was gonna play that game. And it's actually a
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: fairly low total for an A's home game. It's under ten,
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: which you don't see that often. It's dropped a little
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: bit further to nine and a half juice to the
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: under fifty four percent of the tickets on the over
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 1: fifty four percent of the cash, also on the over,
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: I could see the game potentially going under early in
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: the game. I don't think I would want to include
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 1: the A's terrible bullpend as part of that equation, but
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: if you want to go with both starters to do
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: okay in the game, I could see that maybe being
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: a first five under. Let's get the best bets, man,
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: so this doesn't wind up being a really long video.
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: Best bets, baby, we're best betting the first game up.
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: This is a public side, man, and I just think
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: that the matchup is just too lopsided. We're gonna go
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 1: with the Brewers and we're gonna be on the Brewers train.
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: I know they're the hype. They have the best team
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: in baseball. They've won a million games in a row,
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: whatever it is, I think it's twelve something like that.
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: They just keep doing it, man, And they're just the
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: better team across the board here. Man, I think they
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: have a significant starting pitching edge in this game too.
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: So we're gonna go with the Brewers run line. But
• 1:12:40
  Speaker 1: you can get a plus money here right now. It's
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: basically like playing a spread. And I know the Brewers
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: their offense is actually better on the road than it
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: is at home, but they have the way better offense
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: over Pittsburgh, So that's one part of the equation. Pittsburgh's
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: offense is probably the worst in baseball.
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 2: Milwaukee.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: Yes, I know they don't hit quite as well at home,
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: and yes, I know they won't hint in the ninth
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: inning if they're already ahead, so you lose one inning
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: of the bats as far as this run line is concerned.
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: But I still think it's worth than in this one man. Ohop, Sorry,
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh got bombed yesterday. Paul Skeens actually only lasted about
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 1: four innings in the game, gave up two on the runs.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: They gave up four and runs. It was one of
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: Paul Skan's worst starts of his entire career. And Pittsburgh
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: actually does really bad in games after Paul Skeens games
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 1: for whatever reason. I think it's just that sometimes they
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: win the Paul Skans games and they're feeling kind of
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: high on themselves or whatever. But I think Pittsburgh has
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: a really bad recording games after the Paul Skeens games.
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: That's one part of this equation as well. But Milwaukee
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: also got themselves deeper into the game yesterday going against
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: Paul Skans. I forget who the pitcher was for Milwaukee yesterday,
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: but whoever it was, was it a Kintana? I don't
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: even remember. But Milwaukee saved their bullpend quite a bit.
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: I think they actually have the better of the two bullpens,
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: even though Pittsburgh isn't that awful. Pittsgag got to use
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: more relief pitchers yesterday because they were their bullpen was
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: involved in the game earlier on. So I give him
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: Alwaukee a bullpen edge year as well. And starting pitching,
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: if you look at Mitch Keller pitching with Pittsburgh, yeah,
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: he's at pretty decent numbers this year three point eight
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: six c RA one point two to three whip. He's
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: been pretty much the same home and away, so with
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 1: split starned significant, but he hasn't been good lately, even
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: though Pittsburgh has actually won five of his five games
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: in a row of five starts in a row of
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: his and seven of his last eight starts. I know
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: he's only alown with the three on runs once in
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: those starts, but all of his worst starts have been
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: more recent where he only went two winnings at San
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: Francisco and allowed three runs on three walks.
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: That's terrible.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 1: He's allowed three walks and three of his last four
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: starts this month he only went five and five and
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: two thirds innings, and each of his starts he'd gave
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: it five runs though at course Field, so maybe I
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: guess you give him a little bit of a pass
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: for that, and then he didn't bounce back that well
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: with a three to three strike at Walker Show. Touring
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: runs allowed is okay against Cincinnati and five to two thirds,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: but it wasn't the greatest start for him, so he
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: is not in the greatest form right now. Five point
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: nine Windy R and seven of four strike a walk
• 1:15:10
  Speaker 1: ratio this month certainly does not inspire a lot of confidence.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: And his numbers against the Brewers are not very good,
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: and ninety two at bats twenty five to eight strike
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 1: a walk ratio is pretty good, but three twenty six
• 1:15:22
  Speaker 1: average allowed eight sixty nine ohps. He's been beaten up
• 1:15:26
  Speaker 1: by the Brewers man, So I don't think he matches
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: up very well. And he's going up against Brandon Woodruff,
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: who missed over an entire season with an injury, and
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 1: I think people completely forgot about him, and he was
• 1:15:37
  Speaker 1: really really good throughout his career prior to that, and
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: now he's back and he's so he's shown basically no
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: signs of not being himself, you know, like he hasn't
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: even had one bad start, Like sometimes these guys will
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 1: come back and they'll struggle a little bit to get.
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: Back into rhythm. Not him. He's been awesome.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 1: Two point two ninety ra point sixty five whip. Yeah.
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 1: I don't think he can keep up numbers that are
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: that good, but I don't think he's gonna regress really
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: that extensively. I know he's been a little bit worse
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 1: at home three point one two era, which is still good.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee's won all six of his starts, and he's picked
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: up the winning four of them this entire season. He's
• 1:16:15
  Speaker 1: failed to go six innings only once, in a start
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: against Washington, and they're actually a pretty decent road hitting team.
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 1: For whatever reason, he's still only allowed too and runs
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: in that game. He has not allowed more than tower
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: and runs in any start the entire season. He has
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: a forty five to six strike a walk ratio, and
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 1: he's been almost unhittable, allowing only seventeen hits in thirty
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: five and a third. Although it's kind of weird that
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: he's allowed seven home runs out of those seventeen hits,
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: you usually don't see that. So his one problem is
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: that he allows when people actually are able to make
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: contact with him, which doesn't happen very often, they actually
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 1: hit him hard, probably because it's that fastball, and probably
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: he's trying to blow a fastball by somebody and they
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: actually connect for.
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: A home run.
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 1: But other than that, he's been really, really good. He's
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 1: I think it's a real bad Pittsburgh lineup here is
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: pretty dominant numbers against them in seventy two at bats,
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: a big sample size twenty eight to seven strike a
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 1: walk ratio one fifty three average allowed in five twenty
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: oh ps, so he dominates them. I know the public
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: is gonna be on this side. They're probably not gonna
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: want to lay a huge price like this when the
• 1:17:15
  Speaker 1: money looks like it's come in on Milwaukee. They shot
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: all the way up from minus one ninety to minus
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 1: two forty, so I know the better prices are gone.
• 1:17:22
  Speaker 1: It looks like the public is on them eighty four
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets, but now only eighty three percent of
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: the cash that's on the money line market there. But
• 1:17:30
  Speaker 1: I still think Milwaukee on the the run line is
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: the way to go here. Man. I just think it's
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: a started pitching mismatch, like just throughout the entire game.
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 1: So that's the way that I'm going in this game.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: And I think the initial money move was so significant
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: that I think that was what matters more than this
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: like cash percentage. You can't really read that much into
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: I know we're joining the public on this one, but
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 1: I just think it's right. The money is coming in
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: on the under which worries me a little bit about
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: a home favorite covering a run line, but sixty four
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over, fifty seven percent the
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: cash on the under, and the totals all the way
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: down to seven and a half juice to the under.
• 1:18:03
  Speaker 1: But I think Milwaukee can get to keller Man because
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: they have they have been able to do that in
• 1:18:07
  Speaker 1: the past. And I like Woodruff a lot man, So
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee run line is my first play. And then to
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: finish this, we're going under, which you might have guessed
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: in this one. Minnesota and the New York Yankees. The
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: public they're not gonna want to play an under in
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: a Yankees game. Man. We see sixty two percent of
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 1: the tickets around the over in this one, but sixty
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash coming in on the under.
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: So I do think the money is coming in on
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: the under in this one, just like it was in
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: the what was it the Minnesota or not Minnesota, the
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: Cleveland whatever game that was Cleveland Miami, which that one
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: was almost to play for me. I still agree with
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: the under in that one. I think I just prefer
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: this one a little bit more. I think more things
• 1:18:47
  Speaker 1: kind of fall in live. But this one a sixty
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on the under. Here the
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: totals dropped from eight and a half juice to the
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: over to just eight and a half. It's kind of
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 1: a low total for a game in the Bronx, which
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: I know as they hit her friendly park, so you
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: do have to worry about that little bit. But I
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: kind of think this is gonna be a pitching duel.
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 1: And yes, I know, I don't like either bullpen, So
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: if you want to go first five innings here, you
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 1: could do that too, because the bullpen's kind of stink.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: But they're pretty rested right now. The Yankees hardly use
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: their bullpen. Yesterday they used two relief pitchers for very
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: few pitches, and Minnesota they used three relief pitchers. But
• 1:19:20
  Speaker 1: Hatch basically was they pretty much went with a bullpend
• 1:19:23
  Speaker 1: game yesterday and they pretty much saved their bullpen. So
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: Minnesota's bullpen usuage is not that high either, So I'm
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 1: okay with doing it again. If you want to go
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 1: first five innings, that's okay too. Minnesota, their offense isn't
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 1: that good. I know the Yankees offense is good, but
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: they do actually struggle. When the Yankees offense struggles, they
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: kind of struggle mightily in games, and this might be
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: one of those games.
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 2: I'm hoping that it is so they do have some
• 1:19:46
  Speaker 2: under games.
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 1: Man. I'm hoping that that happens here because Joe Ryan
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: is pitching from Minnesota, Man, and now that he knows
• 1:19:52
  Speaker 1: the trade deadline is behind him, he knows he's on
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: Minnesota for the rest of the season. He gets to
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: pitch against the Yankees here, which I think is gonna
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: pump him up, Man, because he gets a pitch against a.
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 2: Good team here.
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: He's been good this season. He's Minnesota's best starter. Two
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: point seven to niney RA point nine two whip. He
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 1: has a better RRA on the road two point five
• 1:20:10
  Speaker 1: to five r on the road. He's in okay form
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: recently nine to one strike a walk ratio this month,
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: allowing two or fewer in runs and both starts. Granted
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 1: it was Cleveland against the City, so he is stepping
• 1:20:21
  Speaker 1: way up in class here. But two point four to
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 1: five ERA this month. Last month two point seven ERA
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 1: with a thirty three to four strike a walk ratio.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: Even with the All Star Shenan Against having to pitch
• 1:20:33
  Speaker 1: in the All Star Game there, he only had one
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: bad start.
• 1:20:36
  Speaker 2: He hasn't allowed with the three on runs.
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: Besides that one bad start against Washington shortly after the
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: All Star Game, going all the way back into early June,
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: and that was a start against the A's. So if
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 1: you take that one out of the equation, he hasn't
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: allowed more with the three earned runs and then he
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 1: starts his April other than that, so he's definitely pitching well.
• 1:20:52
  Speaker 2: I think he's settled in again.
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 1: He knows, you know, he's finishing off the season here,
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: and he actually doesn't have bad numbers against the Yankees,
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: as good of an off as they are. Forty six
• 1:21:01
  Speaker 1: at bats, he has a nineteen to three strike a
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 1: walk ratio against him as helm No. Two thirty nine
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: average six ninety nine oh ps. So Joe Ryan has
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 1: actually done pretty well against the Yankees. I know it
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 1: feels like going with an under with the Yankees game
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: is dangerous, man, but I've done it before. Some of
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: it has been in my detriment. But I think it's
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: gonna be the way to go here. And then Cam
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: Schlittler is on the mount for the Yankees. I think
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: he actually has something, man, even though his numbers don't
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: look very good, four point three EIGHTYRA and a really
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 1: bad one point sixty six whip. He's got to get
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: his walk numbers down.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: His walk numbers have definitely been a concern. I know
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 1: he's worse at home four point nine to one RA
• 1:21:38
  Speaker 1: at home. All of that is a concern, but he
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: hasn't allowed more than three on runs in any outing,
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 1: so it's all kind of spread across.
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 2: All of his starts here.
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 1: He's kind of limiting limiting opponents a bit as far
• 1:21:50
  Speaker 1: as the run totals there concerned. So that's a good
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: sign both starts this month, even though the Yankees have
• 1:21:54
  Speaker 1: lost three starts in a row of his he only
• 1:21:56
  Speaker 1: allowed two in runs and he started, he went five
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: innings and he started, his walk rate went down, so
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: he has a nine to three strike a walk right
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: shire this month with a three point sixty RA. So
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: he is starting to pitch better this month, man, he
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 1: didn't do this is a decent amount of ground ball.
• 1:22:11
  Speaker 1: So really the only thing to really dis like about
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 1: him right now is he's allowed too many home runs,
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 1: which still remains a problem. And his walk numbers were
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: bad earlier on but not as bad in his last
• 1:22:21
  Speaker 1: two starts. But what kind of puts this over the
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 1: top for me is that Minnesota has never faced him before,
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: So I think these young pitchers that actually have talent,
• 1:22:28
  Speaker 1: they have a little bit of an extra edge when
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 1: they're facing an offense that's never seen them before. So
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: under is gonna be the way I'm going to that game. Man. Again,
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: if you want to go first five innings, you could
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: do that too, but we're going under in Minnesota Yankees,
• 1:22:41
  Speaker 1: Hail Schlitler, Shale Schlittler, shot, Shyle Shekels, Schlitzler, Shekels. We're
• 1:22:51
  Speaker 1: putting the Schlitler Shekels on this. Although I will point
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 1: out again, I'm not actually betting any of these right
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: now because I'm trying to be a little bit more
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: conservative with my money right now. But that's the way
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 1: that it is. These are plays that I would be
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 1: making bets on if I was still betting right now. Again,
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee Brewers minus one and a half run line and
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 1: under the total in Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees.
• 1:23:11
  Speaker 2: Those are the plays that's gonna do it.
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 1: Learn a toad on Twitter, learn a tone on Instagram,
• 1:23:16
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• 1:23:19
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• 1:23:24
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• 1:23:27
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• 1:23:31
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• 1:23:33
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• 1:23:36
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• 1:23:38
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• 1:23:39
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• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: ukulele project on YouTube trying to ramp that up a
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: little bit more as well. I don't have a voice
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: right now, so I can't sing for a while right now,
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: but we'll get back to it, I hope once my
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: voice heals up a little bit, which I have to
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: stop doing this show probably for that to happen, or
• 1:23:56
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• 1:23:58
  Speaker 1: and I have to just talk more softly.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: Right let me know if you guys can hear it.
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 1: Maybe maybe I should just like project less, but I'm
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: just kind of a I'm a loud talker, man, It's
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 1: it's my Sicilian nature. I'm slightly black or at least African. Anyway,
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: all that that's gonna do it. But yeah, Covered in
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• 1:24:19
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• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: have a good one today, Happy Wednesday, and peace