Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - Where We’ve Been and Where We’re Going

Transcript

Anpanman - Where We’ve Been and Where We’re Going · AST SpaceMobile Podcast

• 0:06
  This is the AST Space Mobile podcast.
• 0:10
  Where we just basically from the phone be seamless, regardless of
• 0:14
  where you are. We don't want the user even to
• 0:16
  know that it's connected by satellite.
• 0:21
  Listen, the opportunity that we have is very, very, very large.
• 0:24
  Large. Can you guys hear me now?
• 0:28
  OK, All right, Good people can hear me.
• 0:31
  What a freaking day. Or two days.
• 0:34
  Yeah, I just wanted to get people together.
• 0:36
  It's been, it's been a hot minute since we've done one of
• 0:39
  these. And quite candidly, I didn't do
• 0:41
  a space for the last few weeks because there wasn't too much to
• 0:45
  talk about. And there's quite a bit of
• 0:47
  anticipation of when our satellites were going to be
• 0:50
  ready for shipment and launch. And yeah, I thought Kook was
• 0:54
  doing just a fine job and summarizing the weekly events.
• 0:58
  And so there's no need for me. And quite honestly, I've been
• 1:01
  quite busy with school starting back up for our kids.
• 1:03
  So I just haven't had as much time to do these spaces.
• 1:07
  But but of course, today, you know, I went apple picking with
• 1:10
  the family and then had a late day.
• 1:12
  You know, one of our kids at soccer practice, they actually
• 1:14
  go quite late. And so I didn't actually have
• 1:16
  time to prepare for this. I did write down a few thoughts
• 1:19
  or topics to cover, but but yeah, I didn't prepare.
• 1:23
  And so I thought, you know, we'd just get get together and, and
• 1:27
  cover a few things and just kind of hang out.
• 1:30
  Just so that some of you know, I, I did buy a Doctor Pepper the
• 1:33
  other night for good luck. And apparently that good luck is
• 1:36
  hanging out for people that don't know.
• 1:40
  It's interesting. I actually the way to drinking
• 1:42
  Doctor Pepper back in high school.
• 1:44
  And then, of course, our dear departed friend Steve Larrison
• 1:47
  was a big fan of Doctor Pepper and so kind of reintroduced me
• 1:50
  to the drink. And so I, I went out and bought
• 1:52
  1. I know tut and Cook went out and
• 1:54
  bought a Doctor Pepper last night.
• 1:56
  And so, so, yeah, I think we got some positive juju in the memory
• 2:01
  of Steve for, for, for carrying on this tradition of drinking
• 2:05
  some Doctor Pepper. Anyway, yeah, what a day.
• 2:08
  I think it, it's interesting because it, I, I mentioned this
• 2:14
  in a post before, but you know, we did hit, what was it at the
• 2:18
  beginning of September, we went as low as 36 bucks.
• 2:20
  You know, there was some FUD around and people obviously
• 2:23
  doing the, you know, short sellers kind of rubbing in our
• 2:26
  faces when stocks sold off after SpaceX did their transaction
• 2:30
  with Echostar buying the AWS 4 spectrum.
• 2:34
  And so, you know, I think for the market, that's what it does
• 2:38
  have a new jerk reaction. People panicked, you know, the
• 2:40
  stock sold off. And of course, like people
• 2:42
  didn't really fully comprehend what that transaction meant in
• 2:46
  terms of basically validating our strategy around buying
• 2:49
  spectrum, which people had questioned back in January.
• 2:51
  But then it was kind of like what what we do.
• 2:54
  And there's a this Borat Borat mean where he talks about his
• 2:57
  neighbor. He's like, my neighbor been low.
• 2:59
  He did this. I mean, I, I get ATV, he get
• 3:01
  ATVI get a dishwasher, he get a dishwasher.
• 3:04
  But it's, it's kind of like that where we invented the direct.
• 3:07
  So, you know, market. And then of course, you know,
• 3:11
  that was what back in 2017, 2018, and then SpaceX announced
• 3:16
  that they were pursuing Starling decided they were pursuing this
• 3:18
  in 2022. And of course, you know, due to
• 3:21
  their financial resources, they were able to get a product
• 3:24
  working and, and out there quickly, but obviously not
• 3:26
  broadband. And so, but then you know, we,
• 3:29
  we go out and buy some L Band MSS spectrum to help to bolster
• 3:35
  the service which that spectrum will be rolled out in 2027 with
• 3:40
  mid band Bluebirds. And so of course rightly so.
• 3:43
  And, and in some smart transactions, Starlink went out
• 3:45
  and bought Echostar's S band spectrum and so which is 8 of
• 3:50
  S3. And so yeah, interestingly the
• 3:52
  market got a knee jerk reaction and was like, I guess HD space
• 3:56
  mobile screwed. And it's like, no, we're not
• 3:57
  screwed. It's a validation of our
• 3:59
  strategy. They want to get to broadband
• 4:01
  and so they need that spectrum, you know, Then the question, of
• 4:04
  course, whether or not they can be with M and OS directly, which
• 4:07
  I think will make T-Mobile feel a bit nervous, but at the same
• 4:11
  time as interested. You know, Scott, today on
• 4:13
  Bloomberg, when they asked him, are you guys competitive with
• 4:16
  Starlink, he kind of danced around the question, although he
• 4:18
  did acknowledge that, yeah, this market's big.
• 4:20
  It's going to be big enough for what looks like now two players
• 4:24
  perhaps, maybe a theory that we don't know of yet, But the bar,
• 4:29
  you know, the table stakes to play at this poker game is that
• 4:32
  not only do you need to have the proper technology, which we, I
• 4:38
  believe we have a, a big lead given our architecture that
• 4:41
  we're, we're utilizing, but you also now all of a sudden need to
• 4:44
  have spectrum, which is not easy.
• 4:46
  Starlink just paid $19 billion for AWS 3 and that's only for
• 4:51
  the US and obviously they've got some priority rights to try to
• 4:55
  go cobble together similar spectrum around the world.
• 4:58
  But $19 billion is not easy for anybody to pay for.
• 5:01
  I mean, we, we kind of went about it in a different way
• 5:04
  where we acquired and so for Starling, that's 40 megahertz of
• 5:09
  AWS 3 spectrum and some H block spectrum as well.
• 5:12
  We acquired 45 megahertz of L band spectrum out of bankruptcy
• 5:16
  from Plagato, which you know, it's a messy situation, but
• 5:19
  because of our technology, we'll be able to utilize that spectrum
• 5:22
  separately. And we paid a much lower price.
• 5:26
  But then we also are giving up or not giving up.
• 5:29
  But we're partnering essentially with Legato in that lease where
• 5:32
  we share some of the economics in the upside, which you know,
• 5:34
  if you were to talk to Cerberus or Fortress who are stakeholders
• 5:38
  in that spectrum, they see the upside and they're very excited
• 5:41
  about it. And so we didn't have to pay $19
• 5:43
  million, but we we did have to pay some amount of economics
• 5:47
  upfront and then of course going sharing of those economics.
• 5:52
  And so that's why, you know, the cost of entry for us was, was
• 5:55
  much lower. But I think, you know, if you're
• 5:59
  a competitor looking to potentially get into this
• 6:01
  market, not only do you have to build the technology, you've got
• 6:05
  to try to cobble together the M&O partnerships and then you've
• 6:09
  got to, if you really want to compete, you know, acquire some
• 6:12
  spectrum, which is a pretty tall order.
• 6:14
  So it's interesting, I think the with I think the market is
• 6:18
  starting to price in and realizes that this truly is
• 6:21
  going to be a duopoly. And then if you assume that
• 6:24
  that's the case, if you look at the traction around MN OS to
• 6:28
  date, Starlink has 8 or 9 MN OS and we've got over 50.
• 6:32
  And so I like our position and the fact that our satellites
• 6:36
  work with cellular low band spectrum.
• 6:39
  So that gives you propagation and coverage.
• 6:42
  And then we've got mid band spectrum, which will give more
• 6:46
  capacity in terms of for broadband.
• 6:48
  And so, yeah, I like our position.
• 6:50
  I mean, today we heard God, there's actually a lot to talk
• 6:52
  about. We heard, you know, Scott talk
• 6:54
  about, I mean, this was the first time I think they formally
• 6:58
  have said, yeah, we can work through one wall.
• 7:00
  The the signal will go through one wall, which is that's where
• 7:03
  leveraging low band spectrum is key, which is 609, nine, 900
• 7:09
  megahertz cellular spectrum. That's the stuff that that
• 7:12
  allows your mobile phone to work when you're in the middle of the
• 7:14
  house if you don't have, you know, Wi-Fi turned on or if you
• 7:18
  were in an airplane, that's going to allow the the phone to
• 7:22
  work through the airplane when you're, you know, flying, flying
• 7:27
  and you affecting to one of the satellites.
• 7:28
  For anybody who questions like, oh, well, what does mid band
• 7:32
  spectrum mean is that does that does that have good propagation
• 7:35
  characteristics? If anyone's old enough to
• 7:37
  remember T-Mobile service back in, gosh, when was it?
• 7:42
  I think it was like 2004, 2005, 2006 T-Mobile, Anybody who used
• 7:48
  that's the service back then, that's when T-Mobile did not
• 7:51
  have any low band spectrum and it was all primarily mid band
• 7:54
  spectrum. And so I remember when I moved
• 7:57
  to New York at some point in time, I think it was around
• 8:00
  2005, 2006, I remember thinking like one of the cool devices
• 8:04
  that T-Mobile had. I absolutely wanted to have it.
• 8:06
  And so I, I changed service from and it was like from Verizon at
• 8:10
  the time. And I moved to T-Mobile and I
• 8:12
  immediately cancelled after a week because it was only mid
• 8:14
  band spectrum. I got covered.
• 8:17
  It was like difficult unless you were like directly pointing to
• 8:20
  this guy in an open area. If you went into buildings or if
• 8:23
  you started walking down the subway, you were your coverage
• 8:25
  would immediately drop. And so I didn't understand why
• 8:28
  at the time. I just knew like they didn't
• 8:30
  have the right spectrum. But then of course, years later
• 8:32
  I realized like, oh, they only have mid band spectrum.
• 8:34
  They, T-Mobile didn't have any low band spectrum at that time.
• 8:37
  And so over the course of a number of years through spectrum
• 8:40
  auctions and then the merger with Sprint, T-Mobile was able
• 8:43
  to then procure low band spectrum, which is why their
• 8:45
  service over the last few years has has gotten much, much
• 8:48
  better. But for anybody who used
• 8:49
  T-Mobile back in the day when they only had mid band spectrum,
• 8:52
  the coverage was absolute shit. And so, you know, when you had
• 8:55
  served, it was pretty good, but then the coverage was bad and
• 8:58
  you couldn't go into buildings because you would immediately
• 9:00
  lose service. So like, imagine if you're in
• 9:03
  financial services and you're, you know, meeting, you're at an
• 9:05
  attorney's office and you're doing drafting or I don't know,
• 9:09
  you're, you're, you're meeting with management and you go into
• 9:11
  a conference room and your mobile phone's not working
• 9:13
  because it's only spectrum. It's can't go through a wall.
• 9:16
  That was, that was pretty bad. So anyway, I, I think it's
• 9:20
  important to note like, yes, Starlink, they're making
• 9:23
  strides. They announced some pretty great
• 9:24
  things I think for their service this past week where it's
• 9:27
  they're going to start being able to let utilize low band
• 9:31
  data for apps that are optimized for it.
• 9:33
  That's great. And of course having the echo
• 9:36
  star spectrum eventually when they deploy it in what is it?
• 9:40
  I think 2 years like that's going to be really good for them
• 9:42
  to then be able to provide more of a broadband type of service.
• 9:45
  However, I think it's important to note that they're satellites
• 9:48
  the the current V2 and then of course the next V3.
• 9:52
  Those are all going to be mid bands satellites.
• 9:54
  I mean, it's not going to solve the coverage and propagation
• 9:58
  issues, which is by that time AC is rolling out the Block 2
• 10:02
  satellites which are focused on low band and then Block 3 will
• 10:05
  be focused on mid band. Who knows, maybe Starlink will
• 10:07
  develop a much larger phased array satellite and then work
• 10:12
  with MNO partners who are going to say, yeah, you can leverage
• 10:16
  some of our low band spectrum. But I think it's important to
• 10:19
  also remember that if you're going to utilize a carrier's low
• 10:22
  band spectrum, you're going to need the right architecture that
• 10:25
  can put down very specific fixed cell beams on the ground that
• 10:29
  don't interfere with a carrier's existing terrestrial coverage.
• 10:33
  And we all know, I mean, we've discussed this ad nauseam, they
• 10:37
  don't utilize that architecture. And so you're going to have to
• 10:40
  go back to the drawing board. So yeah, they'll be able to
• 10:43
  provide a mid band broadband type of solution eventually, but
• 10:46
  they're still going to have coverage issues, which I think
• 10:49
  is important coverage issues, meaning, Oh yeah, the service is
• 10:51
  going to work through walls and it's going to give your, the
• 10:54
  user a, a cellular like service. But anyway, kind of went on a
• 10:59
  tangent there, but but yeah, it's, it's interesting because
• 11:02
  like, I think thinking, going back to, I guess what I was
• 11:06
  saying before, we've had a ton of news and it's great to see
• 11:09
  the company coming out being very it's it's funny, I think
• 11:13
  over the last few weeks we've seen a lot of people come out on
• 11:16
  Twitter and investors. And there's a group of us, we
• 11:19
  always talk about Reddit being like the ultimate signal, right?
• 11:22
  Like when screaming bloody murder and they're upset and and
• 11:27
  it's just like dooms. It just told doomsday on Reddit.
• 11:31
  Then that's a time when you absolutely need to buy the stock
• 11:33
  because that's like a bottom signal.
• 11:35
  And I joke about how short sellers when they do their happy
• 11:38
  dance and they kind of rub it in people's faces like, well, we
• 11:41
  had that draw down to 36, which was the post SpaceX EE star
• 11:47
  transaction news. You saw all these like these
• 11:49
  scumbags come out and be like, you know, the stock is at 36
• 11:52
  and, and they're like, yeah, this stock is worth 0.
• 11:56
  You know, they start pointing out all these potential issues
• 11:58
  and it's just like, guys, they're not like this.
• 12:02
  Their thesis that you're rolling out or you're trying to scare
• 12:04
  people with this is not new stuff.
• 12:06
  Like you're rehashing old things that everybody already knows.
• 12:10
  The company has already hit milestones past those.
• 12:12
  And yeah, look, at the end of the day, we had a delay.
• 12:15
  There's, I mean, obviously the company was hoping to launch
• 12:18
  Block 2, FM 1 and FM 2 sometime in what it was June, July time
• 12:23
  frame, but it was delayed and it was delayed because of this is
• 12:27
  my own speculation. But due to testing, they may
• 12:30
  have found some things and they had to optimize some things.
• 12:32
  Maybe there were some changes as well to the satellite And we've,
• 12:35
  we've speculated at some of the government use cases, but
• 12:39
  presention like this week, we, there was a few of us talking
• 12:41
  about how thank God, thank God, they took this time to fix
• 12:45
  whatever issues there possibly were.
• 12:47
  And they took their, they were deliberate.
• 12:49
  They went through various steps and processes and now they've
• 12:52
  come to a point where they're comfortable and we're ready to
• 12:55
  launch satellites. And so imagine trying to rush
• 12:57
  this thing through and you find an issue post launch and it's
• 13:01
  out there in space and, and it's like Hubble telescope, right?
• 13:04
  Like there's a problem, but you've got to have workarounds
• 13:07
  to have the satellite work. Like that's not how this stuff
• 13:11
  operates. It's not like SpaceX where you
• 13:13
  can keep iterating and just throw stuff in the space and see
• 13:15
  what happens. Then there's a problem.
• 13:17
  Like, I guess we'll just launch another one.
• 13:18
  The culture at AST is different where the first time they do it,
• 13:22
  it has to be right and it's going to be right all the time,
• 13:24
  right? And so for me personally, I was,
• 13:26
  I know, like there were folks agonizing and, and they were
• 13:30
  upset about not getting a launch date and the community company's
• 13:33
  not communicating. And for me, I was pretty
• 13:37
  relaxed. I was chill.
• 13:38
  And, and I know like there's been some criticism from people
• 13:41
  who are like, you're not being critical of management and you
• 13:44
  should be, you should be call them out for delays and all this
• 13:47
  other stuff. And it's like, that's not my
• 13:49
  role. I'm not.
• 13:50
  And people know this like I'm an unapologetic, yeah, unapologetic
• 13:55
  bull. I'm not going unless like
• 13:57
  there's obviously issues or if there's something bad.
• 13:59
  But my role, I think from my perspective.
• 14:02
  So first of all, like I think it's important to know where I
• 14:04
  come from. Like this is like I'm managing
• 14:08
  my own money. I do this for fun.
• 14:10
  I kind of, I tell people like, if investment can't be fun,
• 14:13
  like, why bother? Like, why be involved in like
• 14:15
  social media? And you know, for me, like I
• 14:17
  find a joinment out of it. Like, I enjoy the camaraderie
• 14:20
  and I'll talk about a bit more about this, But you know, I
• 14:23
  enjoy the ability to leverage research from people from all
• 14:27
  walks of life, which is very different than if you're, you
• 14:30
  know, a hedge fund bro stuck in your own silo And you talk to
• 14:33
  the same 5-6 hedge funds, you all traffic the same ideas.
• 14:37
  And that, that, you know, that can be quite dangerous.
• 14:39
  But for me, you know, I believe in the company and, you know, I
• 14:43
  remember, I guess it was over there somewhere, someone was
• 14:45
  like, well, why don't you put together a whole list of their
• 14:48
  points and reasons, things that can go wrong?
• 14:51
  And it's just like, why should I do that?
• 14:53
  Like we've already seen that from all the skeptics and short
• 14:56
  sellers, like I'm not, that's not what I do.
• 14:59
  Like I'm here from my perspective, like I believe in
• 15:01
  the investment. I know the risks and we've
• 15:03
  talked about the risks, but kind of my role, I think is keeping
• 15:07
  people in the game, like making sure number one, and we've
• 15:10
  discussed this in spaces before, but it's like managing your risk
• 15:13
  in terms of your what you, what you're willing to lose in terms
• 15:16
  of sizing and making sure like you're managing your risk
• 15:19
  properly. And I'll talk about a bit more
• 15:21
  about this later, but you know, managing risk of a hedge fund is
• 15:25
  very different than for retail investor.
• 15:27
  And there's quite a few reasons why there.
• 15:30
  You know, for retail investor, you have a number of advantages
• 15:33
  and obviously there are some disadvantages, but through the
• 15:36
  proper, you know, group of investors doing research
• 15:41
  together, you can overcome some of those disadvantages.
• 15:43
  But but yeah, for me, this is kind of, you know, I've, I've
• 15:48
  been able to benefit from leveraging research of others
• 15:51
  and quite candidly, like, you know, if Patsy wasn't there or
• 15:54
  Kook or Tut or any number of people, Kevin Tanner, I mean,
• 15:58
  there's a whole host, I mean every actually every single
• 16:00
  person here. I wouldn't be in this
• 16:02
  announcement anymore. Like I probably would have given
• 16:04
  up years ago, but you know, I had a high level conviction and
• 16:10
  and I can talk about, you know, why some of the things that were
• 16:14
  existing that existed with this company from my initial calls
• 16:17
  with a bell and and kind of doing initial due diligence,
• 16:20
  There were a few key things that made me realize like, OK, this
• 16:24
  one's special and I'm going to stick with it.
• 16:26
  And God, there was like so much doubt in fear over the years.
• 16:30
  But if it wasn't for this camaraderie in this, this group
• 16:33
  of folks really lucky that says this all came to the right time
• 16:39
  because I don't think there's anybody comparable to the space
• 16:43
  mob and, and what level of research and, and the
• 16:47
  experiences that we went through together, I don't think there's
• 16:50
  anything else out there quite like it.
• 16:51
  But but yeah, we were just really lucky in some respects to
• 16:57
  have come across this investment and then this community kind of
• 17:00
  organically grew and now here we are.
• 17:03
  But I think, you know, going back to those criticisms about
• 17:06
  what I do, it's like, you know, I'm not selling service service.
• 17:10
  I don't run money. This is my own personal
• 17:12
  estimate. I share ideas from time to time.
• 17:14
  But AST is like my highest conviction position.
• 17:18
  It's the biggest position, you know, at times of when when the
• 17:22
  stock is done well, I've told people, well, on spaces, it's
• 17:24
  like, Hey, if you're a smart thing to do is to sell some of
• 17:29
  your position, which, you know, obviously some people I think
• 17:32
  that sacrilege and and won't listen to me.
• 17:35
  And I'll tell you like Kook is one of them.
• 17:37
  But it's like just simple, simple type of, you know, ideas
• 17:44
  where it's like, if you can sell, sell enough to pay for
• 17:48
  taxes and cover your initial investment, then that gives you
• 17:52
  the mental freedom to basically ride this thing to wherever you
• 17:55
  want, right? And so for me, the initial that
• 17:59
  that actually that catalyst happened during the warrant
• 18:02
  redemption when, you know, I at one point, I'm not sure this
• 18:05
  would be before, like I had just under 1,000,000 warrants.
• 18:08
  And so, but I didn't have the financial wherewithal to
• 18:11
  exercise all right. Like I actually had to sell some
• 18:13
  of them to set aside, you know, money for the taxes and then use
• 18:18
  the rest of the proceeds to exercise the rest right.
• 18:21
  And so that was a hard, you know, I guess node for me where
• 18:25
  I actually had to take some money down.
• 18:27
  And but it was good because when that happened, I think the stock
• 18:30
  was like in the 30s. And then I was able to, you
• 18:35
  know, set, set aside some money. And then of course, when the
• 18:37
  stock went all the way down to like, gosh, it was like 20 or
• 18:40
  18, I had the ability mentally I was like, Oh, well, I took some
• 18:43
  profits up higher. And so I had the I didn't care
• 18:48
  that the stock went down to 18. I mean, obviously it sucked, but
• 18:50
  then I was also able to buy on the way down, which then of
• 18:53
  course, you know, it worked itself out and here we are
• 18:55
  today. It all do all time highs.
• 18:57
  But I think it's important for people to recognize like if you
• 19:00
  have the ability to take some level of profits and lock those
• 19:04
  in and cover your initial cost basis.
• 19:06
  Maybe I've seen some people like, oh, I paid the mortgage
• 19:09
  off of my house and I did all these different things, which by
• 19:12
  the way, like I used some of the proceeds from that warrant
• 19:14
  exercise to pay off the mortgage on my house, which is, you know,
• 19:17
  when you live in New York City and you have a home here, that's
• 19:20
  a pretty big nut. And so I remember when the stock
• 19:24
  did draw down to like 17 or 18 in my mind, I was like, oh,
• 19:27
  well, you know, I paid off my mortgage and I, I have this
• 19:29
  capital on the side and I've been able to pay for taxes and,
• 19:33
  and then I can buy some more. And so I didn't feel bad when
• 19:35
  that happened. And that's why for the people
• 19:38
  who, and I, we, we talk about this, but for the people who are
• 19:44
  upset about every single take, you know, they're watching every
• 19:46
  take of the stock up and down. And, and it's like, guy, if
• 19:50
  you're, if you're that emotionally immensely upset
• 19:54
  about it, then I think you're too big.
• 19:56
  I think the key thing for us as investors is to recognize like,
• 19:59
  if you have too much on, it's too much risk for you to handle.
• 20:02
  I've always talked about like not having.
• 20:04
  Never being on margin, especially in a high volatility
• 20:07
  stock like that's the quickest way to death because even though
• 20:10
  you might be right about the company, the macro volatility
• 20:13
  can tap you out right And so I think it's important to
• 20:15
  recognize that anyway. But I think going back to my
• 20:19
  original point is that, yeah, when I joke around about stuff
• 20:23
  like, for example, today I tweeted, don't be that guy,
• 20:27
  right, where the person is about to hit the end zone this, But
• 20:32
  the the example was that, you know, we're really close to
• 20:34
  commercial launch, like don't sell right before we're about to
• 20:37
  take off, right? The context of that post, the
• 20:40
  original 1 was September 5th, which was when I think Echostar,
• 20:44
  the news of the deal had come out and the stock just started
• 20:46
  cratering down all the way to 36.
• 20:48
  And I saw people like, how can you hold this thing for one or
• 20:52
  five years and basically give up and sell at 36?
• 20:56
  And that was the point of my tweet, right, which is go back
• 20:59
  to all the reasons why you own this stock and you know, think
• 21:04
  about what that transaction Starlin, you know, acquisition
• 21:09
  of Echostar Spectrum, like what does that truly mean?
• 21:12
  What does that mean for this company?
• 21:13
  I mean, even just like the simple stuff where I, I was
• 21:16
  tweeting like, hey, if you do with some of the parts analysis
• 21:18
  and you look at obviously we have lease spectrum, it's not
• 21:20
  owned, but it, it's leased for 80 years.
• 21:23
  I mean, if you buy property in China, you don't actually own
• 21:27
  the land. It's a long term lease from,
• 21:30
  from the government, but it's not as if that that lease is
• 21:33
  really valuable. And so if you look at the some
• 21:36
  of the parts value for HD, it's like, well, let's just assume,
• 21:38
  and this is back when the stock was lower, right?
• 21:40
  And let's just assume like, you know, Legato spectrum is worth
• 21:43
  $15 billion, then what you're basically getting the rest of
• 21:47
  the business for free, right? And so that's, and I was joking
• 21:50
  like that's how event driven value guys, Garp guys are
• 21:54
  thinking about it. But it's true.
• 21:56
  They're going to do that, that exercise in terms of valuation,
• 21:59
  be like, you know, there's spectrum value here and then the
• 22:01
  rest of it is upside. So those were the points I was
• 22:04
  making when the stock went down where I think there are a lot of
• 22:07
  people again, like on Reddit or, or, or Twitter who were really
• 22:12
  upset, you know, because we always talk about how the stock
• 22:15
  price rates, the narrative. But yeah, people were pretty
• 22:18
  negative. And you know, why isn't the
• 22:20
  company basically like we because the stock price is down,
• 22:23
  like the company needs to launch satellites.
• 22:25
  And now it's like, well, they can't, like they're not ready
• 22:27
  yet. You don't want to put satellites
• 22:29
  out there when you know, you're, you haven't finished testing and
• 22:33
  aren't fully satisfied. But but yeah, I think from my
• 22:35
  perspective, when I tweet stuff like that and when I'm buying,
• 22:38
  which which is what I do, I'm trying to give people a sense of
• 22:41
  like, hey, you take a step back and think about why you're in
• 22:46
  this investment. And yeah, stock prices down, it
• 22:48
  sucks, but nothing has changed. I mean, yeah, Starling bought
• 22:52
  some spectrum, but it's going to take them two years to roll that
• 22:55
  out. Have they solved their business
• 22:56
  model issues about being competitive for M and OS?
• 22:58
  No, they actually have become more competitive with them.
• 23:00
  And so instead of reacting to what the Bark is doing, think
• 23:04
  about what this means. But it means like HD space
• 23:07
  mobile is becoming even more and more important partner to him
• 23:09
  and OS because a lot. And in this interview that that
• 23:12
  I tweeted out, he said like, Oh yeah, maybe we'll just start our
• 23:15
  own service and we'll have our own phone.
• 23:17
  Like if you're a Verizon executive or if you're a an
• 23:22
  executive at ADDI, which is the Japanese care that's partnered
• 23:26
  with Starlink, you're reading that shit in your pants.
• 23:28
  You're like, OK, if I it for KDDI, that's partner.
• 23:32
  It's like maybe I didn't make the right just ignore.
• 23:34
  OK, I'll work with Starlink, but I really have to look over my
• 23:37
  shoulder and maybe figure out any of the strategy because over
• 23:41
  time, if Starlink is going to become more competitive with
• 23:44
  what I do, then I'm going to have to seek alternatives,
• 23:47
  right? And then if you're in AT&T or
• 23:48
  Verizon exact, you're like, thank God, thank God we chose
• 23:51
  AST space mobile because they're not competing with us.
• 23:53
  They never will compete with us and they just want to work with
• 23:55
  us. And so that's important.
• 23:57
  But anyway, yeah, I, I guess that's, I'm just rambling here.
• 24:00
  I don't have a, a, an agenda here, but I did write a few
• 24:06
  things down to cover. And by the way, like if folks
• 24:08
  have questions or things that they want me to cover, feel free
• 24:11
  to comment. But yeah, pretty exciting.
• 24:14
  I mean, I think last week, you know, we, some of us were
• 24:17
  speculating that the, perhaps the company was getting closer
• 24:19
  to the satellites getting, you know, being coming to some level
• 24:24
  completion. And by the way, we've been
• 24:25
  speculating this for, for weeks and weeks and weeks and we've
• 24:27
  been wrong. So while we, we do copious
• 24:30
  amounts of research, it doesn't mean that we're right.
• 24:32
  This week we were right finally. And that's that's another thing
• 24:35
  too. I think I was kind of from my
• 24:37
  perspective, I know people were like, oh, when are they going
• 24:40
  to, when are they, when are these things going to be ready?
• 24:42
  And there, you know, there is quite a bit of frustration.
• 24:45
  But for me, I kind of took peace and sauce in the fact that this
• 24:49
  stuff is inevitable, right? Like, yeah, maybe it gets slayed
• 24:52
  by a Week, 2 weeks, 3 weeks, a few months, but it's inevitable.
• 24:55
  And we truly are in some respects, like yes, we're in a
• 24:58
  race in terms of marketing against Starlink, but we're
• 25:01
  really in a race against ourselves, right?
• 25:03
  Because like we have these relationships with M and OS, We
• 25:06
  have a broadband service, it's purpose built, you know,
• 25:09
  applications don't need you. You're basically running
• 25:11
  everything native. And that's very different than
• 25:13
  what Starlink is doing. And the services are going to be
• 25:15
  different. That's that's fine.
• 25:16
  Like, you know, it's good to have differentiation.
• 25:19
  Not everybody wants to people like BMW's don't necessarily
• 25:22
  like Mercedes and vice versa. But we're, as long as the
• 25:25
  company is executing and making sure that the service we do
• 25:29
  provide is robust and it, it does what we say it's going to
• 25:33
  do. And I'm OK with it being delayed
• 25:35
  from the company's perspective, when Scott, you know, Scott has
• 25:38
  been heavily hinting he's like, hey, we're going to have a
• 25:42
  handful of launches by through the end of the year.
• 25:44
  And so he talks about definitive agreements with criminos.
• 25:47
  If there's going to be, he said, I think it's a couple soon.
• 25:51
  I think this guy at his work, right?
• 25:52
  So it's like, I remember talking with Hook earlier.
• 25:56
  I was like, well, if he's saying a handful of launches, that
• 25:59
  means that it's got to be coming very soon, right?
• 26:02
  Because you've got to, once you ship a satellite to Florida or
• 26:06
  India, then integration into the fairing, I think takes like,
• 26:10
  call it 30 days. And so it's going to happen
• 26:12
  soon. And so for me, I was just, you
• 26:14
  know, I relative and this is Haikuai.
• 26:17
  Over the past week, there were some people were just
• 26:19
  absolutely, they're beside themselves.
• 26:21
  Like they just couldn't help but they were just like tweeting
• 26:24
  diarrhea. That brilliant, just
• 26:26
  frustration, right? Which, you know, you try to
• 26:28
  like, help walk them off the ledge.
• 26:29
  But after a while it's like, OK, I can't do this anymore.
• 26:31
  I'm just blocking or meeting these people because it's, it's
• 26:34
  like, it's too much, right? And for me, it's like, oh, it's,
• 26:37
  it's going to happen. Just everybody relapsed.
• 26:40
  And that's, that's what I've been trying to tweet for the
• 26:42
  last, I don't know, two weeks or especially this past week.
• 26:45
  And so it was really great to see.
• 26:48
  And you know, it's, there are all these people were saying the
• 26:52
  company needs to communicate. Well, well, shit, we got a lot
• 26:54
  of communication today or the last few days actually.
• 26:56
  And it was kind of funny because like there were what was it the
• 27:01
  other day history or the day before when the company tweeted
• 27:05
  the Vodafone like the CEO going to Midland.
• 27:09
  I mean, it's not everyday that C over major M&O goes to Midland,
• 27:14
  TX, which is out of nowhere visited the facilities.
• 27:17
  And that was basically a signal to investors.
• 27:21
  Also short sellers to like, hey, I think you should be covering
• 27:23
  because it sounds like something really important is coming.
• 27:26
  And I was tweeting, I was kind of hinting at that because it's
• 27:29
  if you read the tea leaves, it's like, OK, I think I think this
• 27:32
  thing's on, it's going to happen.
• 27:34
  But yeah, that was, it was kind of funny because like there was
• 27:37
  that tweet by the company where the Vodafone executives were,
• 27:42
  you know, they came for a meeting and they obviously were
• 27:45
  celebrating something. And of course the next day we
• 27:48
  got the tweet that Bluebird 6 has been completely, you know,
• 27:50
  the final assembly had happened and, and testing had happened
• 27:54
  and it's ready. And then we also, of course
• 27:56
  heard that Bluebird 7 is is basically ready to ship as well,
• 27:59
  which will be sometime later in October.
• 28:02
  So, but yeah, so that was the news this past week.
• 28:06
  And then I, I tweeted out kind of looking at the old playbook,
• 28:10
  which is, you know, when the stock back in, what was it July
• 28:14
  25th last year, last year, 2024, when the company tweeted that
• 28:18
  the five Block 1 satellites were ready to launch, I think the
• 28:22
  stock traded up like 25% that day.
• 28:25
  And so this time, you know, we, it was a little more muted that
• 28:27
  first day when when we tweeted that it was ready, FM one was
• 28:32
  ready or Bluebird 6. I think the stock traded up
• 28:35
  what, 1112%? And then of course, we had the
• 28:38
  fall through today, which was another, sorry, I've, I've been,
• 28:43
  I've been out. So I don't recall the exact
• 28:45
  number. Let me just pull it up here on
• 28:47
  Bloomberg. Yeah, the stock was up a lot
• 28:48
  today. Follow through from additional
• 28:51
  news. So.
• 28:52
  But yeah, it's kind of funny how, you know, Scott obviously
• 28:55
  was supposed to speak yesterday and then there was the OR what
• 28:58
  was the day before. Now all the days are kind of
• 29:00
  running into each other. But he got bumped off because
• 29:03
  obviously there was important, important press conference from
• 29:05
  Trump discussing the Palestinian peace proposal.
• 29:09
  I don't want to go into politics, but obviously Scott
• 29:12
  got bumped up for that. And so whatever they were
• 29:14
  playing, it announced that day, perhaps like kind of got moved
• 29:16
  out, but but yeah, it's, it's now.
• 29:20
  Let me just look here if you want to bear with me.
• 29:24
  But yeah, we're we're now in this phase where as I mentioned
• 29:27
  before in that tweet, OK, so we finished up today 16%, OK, 16%
• 29:31
  today. And what yesterday was like 12%.
• 29:34
  So yeah, it's pretty close or it's more than 25%.
• 29:38
  But yeah, as I mentioned before, this is like what we've all been
• 29:40
  waiting for, right? And so going back to I guess
• 29:45
  April, we were all hot and happy about this multi launch campaign
• 29:50
  starting. So now that we finally have it,
• 29:52
  I mean, you can just see from AC stock price like this thing has
• 29:56
  been coiling for months and months and months and now we're
• 30:00
  here at this point in time where and just going back to the
• 30:04
  touchdown, the end zone analogy, like now you don't want to drop
• 30:07
  the football like you want to run in and score, right?
• 30:10
  Because of now after many months of consolidation, we're finally
• 30:14
  here. We're about to.
• 30:16
  So Bluebird 6 is going to be shipped on an Antonov plane to
• 30:19
  India. Was it October 12th?
• 30:22
  And so my guess is like, depending on how, I'm not sure
• 30:25
  how quickly they can integrate satellite into interfering, but
• 30:29
  you're probably looking at what 30 to 45 days and then they're
• 30:32
  going to launch that sucker. And then in the meantime, you're
• 30:36
  going to have Bluebird 7 sent down to a Cape Canaveral.
• 30:39
  And, you know, hopefully the company invites investors again
• 30:43
  or some, some group of investors might my guess, by the way, like
• 30:46
  I would tamp down some level of expectations because I, I would
• 30:49
  think that the company is probably going to invite more
• 30:52
  corporate guests. I mean, they might invite retail
• 30:56
  investors too. But you know, for folks who
• 30:59
  don't make this next one, by the way, like you can just go down
• 31:02
  to the Cape and watch it from afar, which is what I'm planning
• 31:06
  to do if I don't get an invite if they do the lottery again.
• 31:09
  But you know, from this point on, it's not as if there's going
• 31:13
  it's going to be a one and done thing like there's going to be
• 31:16
  another launch of three Bluebird satellites shortly after,
• 31:20
  probably sometime in my guess is December.
• 31:23
  And then you know, so that's three launches and then you've
• 31:25
  got another 10, which is going to be throughout 2026.
• 31:29
  And the one I'm really looking forward to is going to be Blue
• 31:32
  Origin be, you know, they're, they're going to put, I think to
• 31:36
  start 6 Bluebirds on that one. And then eventually, once
• 31:40
  they've optimized the Bluebirds for weight, and of course, if
• 31:42
  Blue Origin is comfortable with the weight as well, they'll,
• 31:45
  they'll get up to 8 Bluebirds on, on that lunch.
• 31:47
  But that will be pretty crazy to see because, you know, we, we've
• 31:51
  seen the Block 1, the power Block 1 satellites, obviously
• 31:55
  all launch on, on one Falcon 9. But of course, you know, the
• 31:59
  Block 2 satellites are much bigger.
• 32:01
  But yeah, so we're we're at this point now where as I, you know,
• 32:05
  I put on that tweet, I think going back to July 25th, you
• 32:11
  know, the stock rallied. It hit a high point of basically
• 32:14
  up to 100% because I think the stock was like at $13.
• 32:19
  And so at the peak during, you know, the frenzy trading up into
• 32:24
  the launch of the Block 1 satellites, it did hit $39.00.
• 32:28
  And so it was like a 200%, you know, it was up to 100% at one
• 32:32
  point. But of course the stock, you
• 32:33
  know, did settle back down to the price of 26 and change once
• 32:38
  the satellites were launched on September or the successful
• 32:41
  confirmation of launch September 12th.
• 32:44
  But of course, like in the interim during that period of
• 32:46
  time and this is, you know, the company was in a very different
• 32:49
  spot. You know, we still didn't need
• 32:51
  capital at the time. And so I think when the stock
• 32:55
  had rallied to the 39 and and then sometime shortly
• 32:58
  thereafter, the company did put in an ATM or sorry, no, the
• 33:02
  company redeemed warrants, which then raised capital on that, of
• 33:05
  course forced me to sell some of my warrants and exercise the
• 33:08
  rest, which I was happy to do because you know, the company
• 33:11
  needs money. So that's good.
• 33:12
  And then, you know, the company did put in an ATM at that time
• 33:17
  or to raise additional capital. So on the stock did settle down
• 33:20
  to the 26 level. You know, all those things have
• 33:22
  happened. And then of course, like once
• 33:24
  this, so we're deploying had this period of time which we
• 33:27
  thought was going to be several, you know, caught 2, three
• 33:32
  quarters, but then ended up being longer because obviously
• 33:34
  these satellites were delayed in terms of building.
• 33:37
  You know, we thought the next satellite's not going to be too
• 33:39
  far off. Sorry, the next launch is not
• 33:40
  going to be too far off, like perhaps going to be late spring,
• 33:43
  but then obviously we're now here at the end of summer.
• 33:48
  I guess we're, we're in Q3 or sorry, we, we're past Q3, but
• 33:52
  now at the beginning of Q4. But what's different now is that
• 33:55
  obviously we've got, you know, I think Ryan O'Connor calls it
• 33:59
  like the trebuchet of launches. You know, we've got BB 6 and we
• 34:03
  got BB7 and there's going to be 8910 together and then there's
• 34:06
  going to be another 3. And these things are just going
• 34:09
  to be popping out like hotcakes, right?
• 34:10
  Like you've got launches that will be happening on average
• 34:15
  every 1 1/2 months. And so you know, there's going
• 34:19
  to be something very tangible about that where it's going to
• 34:23
  get people to focus like institutions where it's like,
• 34:26
  OK, this they're putting the consolation up and they're
• 34:28
  getting closer and closer to full commercial service.
• 34:31
  And so, you know, we, we talked about the concept of the unlock,
• 34:35
  like this is the true unlock, which is, you know, putting the
• 34:38
  full consolation out there and then then of course monetizing
• 34:40
  it. And so it's going to be a very
• 34:42
  exciting 2026. And so that's, you know, when I
• 34:46
  wrote about that, you know, we win the stock price in the
• 34:50
  previous launch campaign. And then again, that was only
• 34:52
  one launch had basically appreciated from $13 to 26,
• 34:56
  which was like a, what was it? That was a 61% appreciation, you
• 35:04
  know, applying. I mean, this is kind of dumb,
• 35:06
  dumb logic, but it's the best that we have because who knows
• 35:09
  what future holds. Not everything's priced in as
• 35:12
  some would say. You know, if you applied that
• 35:15
  61% appreciation to kind of this initial launch, you'd go from
• 35:19
  $49.00, which is where the stock had closed.
• 35:21
  I guess it was what Friday to call it, $78, which is pretty
• 35:25
  close to like you've seen some of these technical guys,
• 35:28
  technical analysis guys saying 77 is kind of the next the next
• 35:31
  stop. But you know, I think again,
• 35:33
  that's very simple math and just kind of trying to fit what had
• 35:36
  happened for to what could happen now.
• 35:38
  But obviously things are different now like we've got 1/2
• 35:42
  billion dollars of cash versus back then which was like we had
• 35:46
  a few $100 million of cash. And then, you know, obviously
• 35:50
  we've progressed much further along in terms of the FCC review
• 35:53
  for commercial service, which I think we're the comment period
• 35:57
  for our commercial initial, you know, commercial market access.
• 36:02
  I think that's kind of towards the end of October.
• 36:04
  So that's coming, yeah, pretty quickly.
• 36:06
  And then as Scott mentioned, you know, this kind of relates to
• 36:09
  the news today. There's two M and OS, M and OS
• 36:12
  that I think are going to sign to finish commercial agreements
• 36:15
  here. And to me that's Verizon, which
• 36:18
  I think is probably coming very soon.
• 36:20
  It's imminent And you know, we can joke about how imminent it
• 36:23
  was several months ago, but as we all know, these M and OS
• 36:26
  worked very slowly. And for Verizon, I'm sure it's a
• 36:29
  very complicated agreement that you've got to work out with.
• 36:33
  Also your your rival AT&T, you're, you're combining
• 36:37
  spectrum together and doing all kinds of things.
• 36:38
  You have to make sure that you know, you're protected, but that
• 36:42
  I believe is imminent. And the other one that I think
• 36:45
  we can pretty much is going to be fait accompli.
• 36:47
  Maybe it will be priced in or it is Preston his bill of Canada.
• 36:51
  And So what the an interesting conclusion from today is that a
• 36:55
  Bell candidate announced that they had successful testing of
• 36:59
  voice data video, you know, native voice with AC space
• 37:03
  mobile. And you know, interestingly
• 37:04
  enough, they talk about how the testing had successfully been
• 37:07
  done over the summer, which is interesting, right?
• 37:09
  Like if it had been successful back then, why didn't you
• 37:12
  announce successful testing back then?
• 37:14
  And one of the key things like from a commercial perspective is
• 37:17
  if you're negotiating A definitive commercial agreement,
• 37:21
  you don't announce stuff like successful testing before that
• 37:24
  that commercial agreements done right, because it's perhaps like
• 37:29
  just in terms of being conservative, you're not
• 37:30
  successful testing. And then what if you can't agree
• 37:32
  to terms and then you don't come to a commercial agreement and
• 37:36
  the partnership ends, but you're going to look pretty stupid and
• 37:40
  you have an egg on your face for saying that, hey, this was
• 37:43
  great. Re testing was great.
• 37:45
  And if you're fully committed and then you actually don't get
• 37:47
  to a definitive commercial agreement, that would be really
• 37:49
  dumb, right? And so for both Canada, the fact
• 37:52
  that they announced successful testing from the summer today
• 37:56
  means to me that we must be pretty damn close to that
• 38:00
  commercial agreement being executed, right?
• 38:03
  And so, you know, it's, it's I, you know, Bell Canada did make
• 38:07
  an investment in the SPAC IPO and so they, they did make an
• 38:11
  investment upfront. So I'd expect this time around
• 38:13
  there's not going to be an investment, but there probably
• 38:16
  is going to be commercial prepayments just like what AT&T,
• 38:20
  Verizon and Vodafone. You know, this is kind of table
• 38:23
  stakes like for an MNO to sign an agreement now you'll have to
• 38:27
  provide some upfront prepaid commercial revenue.
• 38:30
  So that's something that I'd I'd expect.
• 38:33
  But yeah, today I think for me that was quite exciting to see
• 38:36
  Bell Canada finally, because we, you know, they've been a
• 38:39
  strategic partner for a very long time.
• 38:40
  But now to see that announcement today tells me that commercial
• 38:45
  agreement is coming very soon. The other thing that I would
• 38:49
  point out is for those that listened to Scott speak at a
• 38:53
  recent investment conference and then Sunyan Bloomberg, you know,
• 38:57
  they've, the company has been pretty coy, not coy, but
• 38:59
  they've, they've like talked down Goldendome.
• 39:02
  They they'll refer to the fact like the technology has
• 39:06
  different military applications. And obviously we're, we're
• 39:08
  generative revenue from the military.
• 39:10
  You know, we're, we're working the SDADIU and you know, we, we
• 39:14
  were part of the, the testing out in the South Pacific or
• 39:18
  yeah, South Pacific with, with all the branches of the armed
• 39:21
  forces recently. But recently at this investor
• 39:24
  conference and then today, you know, there was this mentioned
• 39:27
  specifically of Golden Dome, which based off of our due
• 39:30
  diligence, we think there's a very high chance we'll get that.
• 39:33
  And so, you know, of course the government has to shut down now.
• 39:36
  But you know, I would assume that we'll find out soon.
• 39:39
  It's not, it's obviously not a, a full given.
• 39:42
  There's always a chance that Golden Dawn is not awarded to
• 39:45
  the company in this initial round and it will come later.
• 39:47
  But I think we feel pretty good about that.
• 39:50
  But anyway, sorry, I'm kind of just stopping all around here
• 39:53
  because again, I didn't put together a timeline or an
• 39:56
  outline for, for this space. But I guess another kind of
• 39:59
  topic that I referred to before, but I want to cover now is the
• 40:03
  difference between retail investors and professional money
• 40:05
  managers and the weird dynamics that kind of come out of that.
• 40:08
  Especially for social media, first, I would say there are
• 40:11
  quite a few institutional investors.
• 40:13
  And when I when I was in that seat, I did of course pay
• 40:16
  attention to social media and the whole advent of memefication
• 40:20
  of stocks. And you know, post COVID, before
• 40:23
  it was kind of a peculiarity where people would follow social
• 40:26
  media to a degree. And maybe there are some
• 40:28
  interesting accounts. And of course, on the
• 40:29
  professional money, money management side, you would
• 40:32
  follow people like, you know, you there'd be like Bill Ackman
• 40:37
  and any number of folks who would be active on social media,
• 40:41
  you'd follow them for some level of insights, right?
• 40:44
  But it wasn't really a signal or people didn't really drive that
• 40:46
  much value from it until COVID, right?
• 40:48
  Where then all of a sudden, especially for short sellers,
• 40:51
  it's like, oh, you better pay attention to these retail
• 40:54
  investors because if you don't and they start coalescing around
• 40:58
  stocks that, you know, it's great if they coalesce around
• 41:00
  stocks that year long, but if they're they start becoming
• 41:03
  interested in stocks that you're short, you might get blown,
• 41:06
  blown up. And we saw that happens
• 41:08
  spectacularly for, you know, the guys were short GameStop and any
• 41:14
  number of other other meme stocks back then.
• 41:17
  But it's interesting because now I think social media now offers
• 41:22
  like a pretty decent amount of alpha.
• 41:23
  I mean, there's obviously a ton of noise and there's bots and
• 41:26
  all kinds of garbage that's out there.
• 41:27
  But I think you will see some social, I mean some professional
• 41:31
  money managers active, whether it's through docs accounts or,
• 41:35
  or anonymous accounts, because basically everybody I've, I've
• 41:40
  talked about it before, like Bloomberg has functions and AP
• 41:43
  is where you can check sentiment and you can check, you know, you
• 41:49
  see here I can like there's a social media trends window and
• 41:53
  Bloomberg where you can pick it, pick stops based off of social
• 41:56
  velocity, social volume, news volume, social sentiment, news
• 41:59
  sentiment, news radar. I mean, there's a lot of
• 42:02
  different tools now because it's actually important.
• 42:05
  Like, and of course, like those tools aren't, aren't foolproof
• 42:08
  because people gain the system too, right?
• 42:10
  We, we see bots show up for Asts or any number of tickers and
• 42:14
  bots are becoming even better. Like back in the day, bots would
• 42:16
  just be they would just repeat the same shit, right?
• 42:19
  It'd be like, oh, this person generate a lot of money, you
• 42:22
  should follow them. But now bots have AI built in
• 42:26
  where they will reply to your tweets and give some level of
• 42:30
  insight, regurgitate some insight related to the stock
• 42:33
  ticker, then of course try to force you into some telegram or
• 42:36
  discord. But anyway, I guess my point is
• 42:38
  that social media is, is important now, right?
• 42:41
  It's it's a signal. Like I, I joke about how before
• 42:44
  I mentioned, like when Reddit is really negative or you see a lot
• 42:47
  of people post negative things, then that's a good indicator
• 42:51
  that perhaps like in a, in a given situation, you might be
• 42:54
  bottoming right? Like, and it's a very retail, if
• 42:56
  there's a bunch of retail activity in a certain stock,
• 42:59
  then it could be a signal to you, Oh, you might be at bottom
• 43:01
  or you might earn commercial. You might be at the top.
• 43:03
  But, but yeah, so nowadays there's a lot of professional
• 43:05
  money managers who do follow social media.
• 43:08
  They might even have their own accounts.
• 43:10
  There's obviously a lot of people who claim to the managing
• 43:14
  capital. We joke about how some people
• 43:17
  put, you know, you tell people, but like I have an $8 million
• 43:21
  net worth like in their bio, as if that gives them more
• 43:24
  credibility. Like I joked about how maybe I
• 43:27
  should change my tag to say $50,000 net worth or I, I have,
• 43:34
  I have Pokémon, a Pokémon collection worth, you know,
• 43:37
  $3000 or something just to just to fuck around with people.
• 43:40
  But but yeah, it's, it's interesting because now, now
• 43:44
  you've got and it's you'll see hedge fund guys, whether they're
• 43:48
  junior people or maybe they're senior people and they're
• 43:50
  running a pod, they'll tweet stuff, right?
• 43:52
  And so what's interesting is like, especially in this day and
• 43:56
  age and, and this time right now post COVID, but we're clearly in
• 43:59
  this market now that is, I mean, you know, it, it is a profit
• 44:03
  market and a lot of stocks are working.
• 44:05
  Kevin Mack, I don't know if he had a rough day today and he, he
• 44:08
  threw some barbs at me, which is fine.
• 44:10
  People got to release their stress somehow.
• 44:12
  But but he's right, he's right there.
• 44:14
  This is a faulty market and there's stuff that there,
• 44:17
  there's things that are somewhat questionable that are working.
• 44:20
  And so a key thing to invest in recognizing those environments
• 44:23
  and making sure whatever you're invested in is doing well
• 44:27
  because of the company, not just because the market's going up
• 44:30
  and it's writing, you know, it's, it has a high level of
• 44:33
  beta and everything's going up. And so obviously, like in
• 44:35
  markets that are, they're doing really well.
• 44:38
  Everyone feels like a genius, right?
• 44:39
  Like everyone's, you know, Scott stock to pick is, is doing well,
• 44:42
  even the questionable ones. But but I think it's, you know,
• 44:46
  taking a step back it, it's interesting because I think for
• 44:48
  professional money managers, there is a decent, there's a
• 44:51
  high level of envy, right. So if you can imagine, like if
• 44:54
  you work at a pod shop, when I talk about pod, it's like
• 44:57
  Millennium or Citadel or any number of these, these places,
• 45:00
  like that is a really fucking hard job.
• 45:02
  Like imagine if you have a book of, I don't know, you pick the
• 45:06
  number like if it's a small place, maybe $200 million or you
• 45:09
  have a book that's like a billion dollars, right?
• 45:11
  And so imagine you're a performer manager and then
• 45:14
  you've got like two or three analysts working for you.
• 45:17
  You've got these crazy tight wrist limits, right?
• 45:19
  Because you, your focus is just to generate alpha.
• 45:22
  You cannot be riding beta. You cannot.
• 45:25
  The reason why then why I say that is like, you've got to be
• 45:28
  factor neutral, meaning like you've got to hedge out to your
• 45:31
  best ability. You have to hedge out the noise
• 45:33
  and you can and, and you're, you know, you're able to manage a
• 45:36
  billion dollars because your book is HESH, meaning like the
• 45:39
  market goes up and goes down. Theoretically, you should be
• 45:43
  indifferent. Your book is going to basically
• 45:45
  be somewhat mutual, but then because you've picked the proper
• 45:48
  winners and you've picked the proper losers, meaning the short
• 45:51
  ideas, which by the way, is like a really hard thing to do.
• 45:54
  Like I like beating up on short shorts, but then also I
• 45:57
  recognize like that's a hard fucking job, which is why I'm
• 46:00
  glad I don't do that job anymore for hedge fund managers.
• 46:03
  Like you've got an impossible job, right?
• 46:06
  You've got to come up with ideas or some differentiation, some
• 46:09
  unique strategy. Like I remember, you know, when
• 46:11
  you go to allocator. So like, what makes you unique?
• 46:14
  It's like, well, my investment process unique and I focus on
• 46:16
  this area and be able to pick the winners and whether that's
• 46:20
  on, if you can imagine like headphones, you're not only
• 46:24
  you're measured on a day-to-day basis, week to week, month to
• 46:27
  month. You can't have a big draw down
• 46:29
  like you know, and you've got to be able to generate true alpha
• 46:32
  meaning like this. There's something very
• 46:34
  particular about the stocks that you're long and the stocks are
• 46:37
  short that are going to outperform other guys who are
• 46:41
  doing the same thing. And that doesn't mean like if
• 46:43
  the market's up 30%, it doesn't mean like you need to be up 30%,
• 46:48
  but from a risk adjusted basis, if you were up like 10%, but you
• 46:52
  didn't take, it wasn't because of data and it wasn't because of
• 46:55
  all this noise. Like that's true alpha
• 46:57
  generation, right? And so like for these large
• 47:00
  shops, they're going to hire a ton of teams, they're going to
• 47:03
  be managing like billions of dollars.
• 47:05
  And then they're going to, they're going to leverage it up,
• 47:07
  right? They're going to lever, if
• 47:08
  they're managing $10 billion, they're going to lever it up
• 47:10
  four times to 40 billion. And they've got to make sure
• 47:13
  everybody who's running money is running it very tight.
• 47:17
  Like you cannot have a blow up. You can be wrong in a few
• 47:19
  things, but you know, if you have a drawdown of if you're
• 47:23
  down 5%, seven, 10% in the year, you're out your, your job is
• 47:27
  done right. And so, so it's a very
• 47:29
  different, it's a very different business.
• 47:31
  And it's high, it's high stress. It's not easy.
• 47:35
  If you're good at it, the ones you're good at are crazy.
• 47:38
  You have to be a certain kind of crazy.
• 47:41
  Like when you when people listen to Kook, it's like, Oh yeah,
• 47:44
  he's that kind of crazy. And I was that kind of crazy to
• 47:47
  some extent. But but it's a tough job.
• 47:50
  So you have to recognize like where those people coming from.
• 47:52
  And so when they're on social media and they see retail mom
• 47:58
  and pops full like, you know, I see some of the people in the
• 48:00
  crowd here who are pharmacists or who do different jobs.
• 48:07
  They might work in construction, might work in a factory or
• 48:09
  whatever. And then they, these people,
• 48:12
  these retail people who has decided for whatever reason, you
• 48:16
  know, where they're at, serendipity, they came across an
• 48:18
  idea or whatever it is, but they climbed on to the right idea and
• 48:23
  they made a shit lot of money. Like these professional money
• 48:25
  managers have this envy and they hate that.
• 48:27
  They hate that shit. They're like, wait, I'm so
• 48:30
  smart. I, I know every single thing
• 48:32
  about some of these companies. I pay experts, I do due
• 48:35
  diligence. I, I pay for like cutting edge
• 48:38
  research. Like, you know, we used to joke,
• 48:41
  I mean, back in the day when there was the ability to
• 48:43
  generate also like, you know, and let's see if Best Buy is
• 48:45
  going to be the quarter, like I'm going to call regional
• 48:47
  managers through expert networks or I'm going to count cars in
• 48:49
  the parking lot. But all that shit is like our
• 48:51
  bell, right? Everybody does that stuff.
• 48:53
  But now it's like for these professional money managers who
• 48:57
  have tremendous resources to know what's going to happen to a
• 49:01
  company in the in every any given quarter and have insight.
• 49:04
  Then they see like retail people who are basically like, you
• 49:08
  know, long stock and maybe they're long in size and they
• 49:11
  hold it and it keeps compounding and they're making a shit load
• 49:13
  of money. They can't stand that.
• 49:15
  Imagine like if you're a doctor and you got you know, you, you
• 49:19
  went through whatever it is 1012 years of education and some
• 49:23
  Yahoo off the street. Like somehow all of a sudden,
• 49:26
  like they're able to do surgery and they do it, you know,
• 49:31
  without even going getting all the, you know, certifications
• 49:34
  and then an education, they somehow do surgery and it comes
• 49:38
  out OK, You would be upset too. You'd be like, what the fuck?
• 49:41
  Like I paid my dues. How is that person performing so
• 49:44
  well, right? And so that's why I like there's
• 49:47
  this condescension of when you see professional money managers
• 49:51
  or people who work at places and they're on Twitter and they're
• 49:55
  just shitting on people and they're shitting like, oh, that
• 49:57
  company doesn't make sense. So it's like it's a pre revenue
• 50:00
  company. It's overvalued and and this is
• 50:02
  the same stuff, by the way, like if you want the example of what
• 50:05
  happened, this is exactly what happened to Tesla back in the
• 50:08
  day. It's like every hedge fund was
• 50:10
  short to myself. They're like, this doesn't make
• 50:12
  sense. It's overvalued.
• 50:14
  You just couldn't because they couldn't see beyond their nose,
• 50:16
  right? Like they can't when you're in
• 50:18
  finance and you're when you're working a hedge fund and you're,
• 50:22
  you're focused on companies that have financial results like here
• 50:25
  and now, you're focused on quarters, you're focused on, you
• 50:28
  know, what is the, is the company going to be?
• 50:30
  And not only are they going to be, are they going to raise
• 50:33
  guidance or are they going to miss and lower guidance?
• 50:36
  I mean, it's a very simple game, right?
• 50:38
  And so you need to know every single thing about that company
• 50:41
  in that, in that case, when you're conditioned that way, you
• 50:44
  can't think of three revenue companies unless you're a
• 50:47
  biotech investor, which are very specific special case of people.
• 50:50
  Because in biotech like you're, you have to think about time
• 50:53
  frames like 1020 years out and be able to discount, you know,
• 50:56
  cash flows from a drug being approved and then some level
• 51:00
  adoption. So in some respects we're all
• 51:02
  biotech investors, right? For pre revenue companies or BC
• 51:05
  investors. But for public hedge fund
• 51:08
  investors, like they're, they can't think beyond like real
• 51:11
  financials and quarterly, what's going to happen this quarter and
• 51:14
  what's going to the next quarter.
• 51:16
  They can't look beyond that, right?
• 51:17
  And they can't think of a higher level.
• 51:19
  And which is why they totally missed Tesla and they were short
• 51:21
  and got their asses handed to them.
• 51:22
  And which is why, you know, in this day and age and look, there
• 51:26
  is certain sectors that I don't understand or I'm somewhat
• 51:29
  skeptical, but I know this company AST and I know what the
• 51:32
  opportunity is. And I know like there's 6
• 51:35
  billion phones, like an existing install base that can be
• 51:38
  leveraged. And once this constellations up,
• 51:40
  like you can turn on those phones.
• 51:41
  And so that's pretty fucking compelling, right?
• 51:43
  Like I don't know what the end state number.
• 51:46
  And so that, like when people challenge you on, well, what's
• 51:49
  the company's revenue is going to be?
• 51:50
  And, and you know, how much EBITDA are they going to
• 51:53
  generate? And if you do a discount cash
• 51:55
  flow, what is it worth? It's like, I can't tell you.
• 51:57
  I, I mean, I, I can run models in sensibilities, but at the end
• 52:00
  of the day, like I know the Tam is huge and I know there's a
• 52:04
  massive install base and this company has 50 MN OS working
• 52:07
  with it. And there's, you know, those 50
• 52:09
  MN OS have 3 billion subscribers.
• 52:11
  And you know, if we, I don't know, we get like 3-4, five
• 52:14
  percent of those subscribers paying 10 to $15.00 a month.
• 52:17
  Like that's a big fucking number like we're we're talking about
• 52:20
  and a much higher level of the abstract.
• 52:23
  This company is going to be worth a lot.
• 52:24
  And I can go through those numbers.
• 52:25
  But then so people can't get beyond that point.
• 52:28
  It's more about like, oh, the launch is delayed by a week.
• 52:31
  So I'm going to short the stock because people are going to
• 52:33
  freak out and I'm going to make like 5 or 10%.
• 52:35
  It's like you're such a fucking dumb ass.
• 52:38
  Or that's the hedge fund mentality where it's like, OK,
• 52:41
  I'm going to try because the company is delayed or there's
• 52:43
  there's going to be a runaway delay.
• 52:45
  Like the company can't build the satellite ones on time.
• 52:48
  So it means everything's going to get pushed back and it's like
• 52:52
  they're kind of missing the bigger picture, which is this
• 52:54
  company is getting closer to commercial service.
• 52:56
  They're executing. Yes, it there's some delays, but
• 52:59
  in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter if this
• 53:00
  service is inevitable, it's going to happen.
• 53:02
  And and the people, by the way, like we can go through layers
• 53:05
  and layers of bear cases that got disproved or basically fell
• 53:09
  by the wayside. I mean, one key one, I mean, it
• 53:11
  was huge. This is back in 20, 2020-2021,
• 53:15
  when I started sharing this idea on Twitter.
• 53:18
  It's like, oh, it's a niche market, no one's going to care.
• 53:20
  Like it's not that big. And then, of course, Fast
• 53:23
  forward to 2022, it's like, oh, Starlink is getting into the
• 53:27
  market and Apple was like trying to provide SOS service, but
• 53:29
  yeah, yeah, no one's going to care.
• 53:30
  It's too small. And then of course today it's
• 53:33
  like, oh, Starling spent $19 billion in spectrum and every
• 53:38
  legacy guy is trying to get into this market because they see
• 53:41
  opportunity. Those same legacy guys like
• 53:43
  already on the other who pooped this thing, it's like
• 53:46
  everybody's now stumbling over themselves to try to get into a
• 53:50
  directed device. And it's just, it's kind of
• 53:52
  funny, right? But, but I think you know it
• 53:54
  when you you see professional money managers who are
• 53:57
  condescending and like they come and nitpick and stuff like this
• 54:00
  guy was at Major Tom supposedly, yeah, manages money.
• 54:04
  He's like, well, you know, people, people should be aware
• 54:07
  that Starlink is out there and they're well capitalized and
• 54:10
  they, they have a history of execution.
• 54:11
  So you should be careful. And it's like, it's like as if
• 54:15
  this is brand new news. Like, oh, you're right.
• 54:18
  Actually, you know what? That's, that's a really great
• 54:20
  point. I should just sell my entire
• 54:21
  position today. It's like, Oh my gosh, like you
• 54:23
  wear it. But I, I think that's where
• 54:25
  there's like this cognitive dissonance is happening where
• 54:28
  these people don't, they can't figure, they don't understand or
• 54:32
  they can't think of the bigger picture where they're going to
• 54:35
  find all the reasons why you shouldn't invest in it, right?
• 54:38
  And, and of course they're going to pat themselves on the back
• 54:40
  and, and point that out on Twitter, especially when the
• 54:43
  stock is down, when it's like 36.
• 54:44
  We're like, ah, see, I told you so.
• 54:46
  And of course the stocks at 66 today, but they can't kind of
• 54:50
  think bigger because hedge funds, you know, these investors
• 54:53
  are not, they're not built to do that.
• 54:55
  They're they're built to basically scalp and chop out a
• 54:59
  living of, you know, generating risk, but of course, risk
• 55:03
  adjusted, it's a very good return.
• 55:05
  Like high sharp and all this other shit, you know, 10% a year
• 55:09
  with low draw downs and, and, you know, and volatility versus,
• 55:15
  you know, retail investors. And, and that's the thing that
• 55:17
  they hate because they don't have the freedom.
• 55:20
  And of course, historically, retail investors have been in a
• 55:22
  disadvantage and you know, unfortunately, you know, got
• 55:26
  taken advantage of it of and, and all these different things,
• 55:29
  right? But that's why you see all these
• 55:31
  professional mining managers who will come out and just totally
• 55:33
  shit on different ideas or make side remarks and, and kind of
• 55:37
  hint at like, Oh, well, you guys don't know something.
• 55:39
  And I do, I'm more qualified to think about this.
• 55:42
  And it's like, that's the great thing about investing is that
• 55:44
  it's truly democratized at this point.
• 55:46
  It's like most people, if you, if you have access to the
• 55:51
  Internet, you can go to, you know, you can get a decent
• 55:53
  amount information through, you know, SEC, SEC filings, you can
• 55:57
  go to Yahoo, Google, like all the tools are pretty decent.
• 56:00
  And then if you pay a little bit of money, one app that I
• 56:04
  recommend people use is Koyfin. KOYFIN.
• 56:07
  It's kind of like a retail, but quite powerful.
• 56:11
  It has a lot of the features and functionality of Bloomberg.
• 56:14
  Not quite there, but pretty damn good, right?
• 56:18
  That is the only cost actually, I don't know what it costs
• 56:20
  anymore, but it's probably like, I don't know, 60, seventy,
• 56:22
  $80.00 a month. But yeah, there's all these
• 56:24
  different tools out there. And so that the advantage that
• 56:27
  there's like some structural and data advantages that the retail
• 56:31
  has actually gets professional money management, right.
• 56:34
  And so I know people were kind of beating up on Kevin Mack
• 56:37
  today, which he he not that I highly respect, but I think
• 56:41
  people need to understand like he is operating under a very
• 56:44
  different parameters, right? Like he has all PS, he's got to
• 56:47
  generate good risk adjusted returns and it's a very
• 56:49
  different game, right? And so you're kind of comparing
• 56:52
  apples to oranges for retail. As I mentioned before, like
• 56:55
  before, historically, the bigger disadvantage was information,
• 56:58
  right? And so that information edge has
• 57:00
  dropped to a degree, but obviously hedge funds still have
• 57:03
  a tremendous amount of resources for edge.
• 57:05
  But then one cold thing that's kind of happened recently is the
• 57:09
  fact that this is what you know, when I talk about space mob
• 57:12
  retail now has a not a comparable sometimes, I mean,
• 57:16
  depending on how special a community is, like it can have a
• 57:20
  pretty high level of edge if not or actually in a lot of cases
• 57:25
  more edge than hedge funds. You know, for hedge funds, I
• 57:28
  think it's important to understand that a lot of names
• 57:31
  in the book, they might have, I don't know, you might have 2030
• 57:34
  names in a book that you know really well, but you're not
• 57:36
  going to know it extremely well. What's, you know, some of the
• 57:39
  people in the space mob, like all they think about is this
• 57:41
  particular company and all they do is and, and again, this, this
• 57:45
  is coming from different disciplines, whether it's you
• 57:48
  have your, you have your attorneys, you have some finance
• 57:50
  people, you have people who come from a defence angle or have
• 57:55
  worked in production. I mean, there's just a whole
• 57:57
  host of, you know, different people to leverage.
• 58:00
  But if you can get a community of people who kind of works,
• 58:04
  work together to figure out, you know, all the different things
• 58:08
  about a particular company, the risks, you know, execution for
• 58:11
  different aspects and retail actually has a pretty big
• 58:14
  advantage. So I mean, just in particular
• 58:17
  for Space Mob, you've got a number like Katzie is a
• 58:20
  technical expert. If he's kind of ransom on spam,
• 58:23
  he understands the satellite technology.
• 58:25
  He also understands regulatory process.
• 58:27
  And, and so do you know a few other of Space Mob as well?
• 58:31
  When I think about the raw like horsepower and brain power of
• 58:35
  Space Mob compared to when I was a headgear manager and, and I
• 58:39
  think about different names that I was invested in, I would be at
• 58:42
  a huge disadvantage, right? Like, and that's, that's where I
• 58:46
  think the space mob can be kind of cultish and maybe not
• 58:50
  childish, but I guess maybe condescending back to, you know,
• 58:54
  people who are, who are skeptical about what the
• 58:57
  company's doing that that level of, of assuredness is the fact
• 59:02
  that, you know, these people in the space mob have been doing
• 59:04
  research for, I don't know, I mean, some people, it's been
• 59:07
  five years, right? And they fall, they've been
• 59:09
  through the ups and downs. And it's not just the research,
• 59:12
  but it's also having gone through the pain, right, of the
• 59:16
  volatility of the company where it had almost hit the point of
• 59:20
  probably near bankruptcy in early 2024.
• 59:23
  Things really coming together and, and the company getting to
• 59:26
  the next level, right? Because it doesn't matter like
• 59:29
  if you've got the best technology, if you don't have
• 59:31
  the Capital Partners behind it and you know, you've seen this
• 59:34
  throughout history. There's sliding door moments,
• 59:36
  right where a company is able to make it and they take the entire
• 59:39
  market or they become a big player versus others that had
• 59:42
  the right technology didn't either.
• 59:44
  Maybe they didn't have the, you know, the business model or the
• 59:47
  distribution, but I think where retail is different is that, you
• 59:50
  know, that information advantage has been in some cases, it's
• 59:54
  become somewhat more even. And then in other cases, in this
• 59:57
  case of HD space mobile and space mob, like the retail
• 1:00:01
  advantage and trimmer information is much, much higher
• 1:00:04
  than than hedge funds because breaking up like a lot of hedge
• 1:00:07
  funds out there. And we saw this right?
• 1:00:09
  And this, this is quite funny, but there was like this whole
• 1:00:13
  group of Echostar masters, which by the way, God bless them,
• 1:00:16
  They, they, they. Turned out to be a home run for
• 1:00:19
  them compared to like the company potentially going to
• 1:00:21
  bankrupt over the summer. But now, you know, Charlie Urgan
• 1:00:23
  was forced to sell a spectrum and basically sell pieces of the
• 1:00:27
  business. And that stock has been a
• 1:00:28
  tremendous win, right? But then this is where hedge
• 1:00:31
  funds like get into trouble, right?
• 1:00:33
  They they're like, oh, hey, I'm going to run this position and I
• 1:00:36
  need to hedge it instead of using a sector head to like
• 1:00:39
  maybe an ETF or something. I'm going to short AST space
• 1:00:43
  mobile against my long position. I'm going to do a pair trade,
• 1:00:45
  right, because now, like Echostar is kind of a, a proxy
• 1:00:50
  for Starlink, SpaceX. And So what, what better hedge
• 1:00:54
  than shorting AST space mobile? And so they're shorting AST like
• 1:00:57
  in the hole at 40 to down to 35. And there was one account that
• 1:01:02
  was kind of like doing victory laps, which I kind of corrected
• 1:01:04
  them today. But it's like, hey, you should
• 1:01:06
  have the trade on long Echostar and short AST, which by the way,
• 1:01:09
  like Echostar now is AI mean It does have yeah, that there is
• 1:01:13
  the the SpaceX holdings. But you know, you can argue
• 1:01:17
  whether that's fully valued or not.
• 1:01:19
  And then you've got to discount that by, you know, when Ergen
• 1:01:23
  and Hamid potentially either monetize that or do something
• 1:01:27
  with it. There was going to be some tax
• 1:01:29
  indications for the most part, like Echostar is a holding
• 1:01:31
  company. It's now that stake.
• 1:01:33
  And then if they've got spectrum holdings, which they've sold a
• 1:01:36
  few pieces off and they'll be some tax indications there.
• 1:01:38
  But you're basically long like this event, this, this, this NAV
• 1:01:41
  play. And this is where there's what
• 1:01:43
  we call basis risk, right? Like you're, you're big long,
• 1:01:46
  this one thing and then you're short something that's you're
• 1:01:49
  something totally different, right?
• 1:01:50
  Like AC space mobile. Yeah, there is some relatedness
• 1:01:54
  to to Starlink, but they're also, you know, there's some
• 1:01:59
  stuff that doesn't, they're basically like two different
• 1:02:02
  trades, right? And so your longest thing that
• 1:02:04
  has some limited upside, like it's it when these events don't
• 1:02:07
  happen, the value gets unlocked and maybe stock trade's hard and
• 1:02:10
  then you're short this like company that has a tremendous
• 1:02:12
  amount of Tam and white space and you're going to get fucking
• 1:02:14
  run over, right? And so, but you know, it's hedge
• 1:02:17
  funds, they can't think beyond, you know, they can't think
• 1:02:21
  beyond their nose as though they're AST face mobile is a
• 1:02:24
  great short. I'm going to go short it against
• 1:02:26
  this thing that I'm long. And they're kind of they're kind
• 1:02:28
  of related, but they're really truly in terms of risk forward,
• 1:02:31
  they're total opposite ends, right?
• 1:02:33
  And so those guys have gotten completely run over, right?
• 1:02:36
  Like they shorted AST at, I don't know, 4036 maybe at the
• 1:02:40
  lows and then they're long Echostar at 7075.
• 1:02:45
  And today they got they got fucking run over.
• 1:02:47
  I mean, if you look at where they closed it and you'll see
• 1:02:50
  Echo star was basically down slightly and then AC space
• 1:02:54
  mobile was up a ton. And I guarantee you, like there
• 1:02:56
  were guys that were getting tapped out of that trade by
• 1:02:59
  their risk manager. There was like, OK, you had the
• 1:03:02
  wrong hedge on. You need to cover, you need to
• 1:03:04
  cover AC and perhaps maybe even sell some of your echostar.
• 1:03:07
  Like I've had enough of this because AST is, you know, gone
• 1:03:10
  from they're short of 40 now it's at 66.
• 1:03:13
  Like they just got that trade wrong.
• 1:03:15
  And you know, I, I joked about it with, with Kook the other
• 1:03:18
  day. It's like you, you could have
• 1:03:19
  shorted Iridium. Iridium is the company that's
• 1:03:22
  going to get their lunch eaten by ASD Space Mobile and Echostar
• 1:03:26
  or sorry, not Echostar, but SpaceX.
• 1:03:28
  You should be, you should have been short that.
• 1:03:29
  And of course, like people are afraid of Iridium's dividend,
• 1:03:31
  but you know, that stock was like 3035 an ounce at $618,
• 1:03:36
  right? And so that would have been that
• 1:03:39
  in my opinion, would have been a better hedge.
• 1:03:40
  But anyway, but yeah, I think, you know, for retail investors,
• 1:03:43
  I was saying before, like, you know, that that information to
• 1:03:46
  advantage has been kind of levelled between professionals
• 1:03:50
  and retail. But then more importantly, for
• 1:03:52
  some of these specific names, retail actually knows the name
• 1:03:54
  better, right than than professional investors.
• 1:03:56
  And of course, like, you know, there's this argument that well,
• 1:04:01
  maybe they're not doing the proper valuate due diligence or
• 1:04:03
  valuation, whatever, yadda, yadda, yadda.
• 1:04:05
  But I think where retail can excel is the fact that they have
• 1:04:09
  a longer time horizon and you can think about holding an
• 1:04:12
  investment over years, not thinking about, you know, again,
• 1:04:15
  hedge funds will say, hey, there's no revenues here and
• 1:04:18
  they're not there's trading at the the classic line.
• 1:04:20
  It's trading at 100 times revenue, this year's revenue.
• 1:04:24
  It's like no one's investing companies based off of
• 1:04:27
  historical results. People are investing in
• 1:04:29
  companies based off of future potential, right?
• 1:04:33
  You know, in AC's case, like is a company.
• 1:04:35
  Let me just look on Bloomberg here.
• 1:04:38
  You know, who knows what if consensus is right, but let's
• 1:04:42
  just take 2027. The estimates are all over the
• 1:04:45
  place, right? Like there's a the median
• 1:04:47
  estimate for revenue and 2027 is 900 million.
• 1:04:51
  The highest estimate is 1.5 billion.
• 1:04:53
  And then of course I don't know where this is coming from, but
• 1:04:56
  there's there's a low estimate of 120 million, which doesn't
• 1:04:59
  make any sense to me. Yeah.
• 1:05:00
  I mean, if you compare the enterprise value based off of
• 1:05:04
  where revenues are going to be in 2027, then it looks a lot
• 1:05:08
  more reasonable. And taking account the fact that
• 1:05:12
  a lot of because of the way that the company has structured a lot
• 1:05:16
  of the top line is actually going to go down to, you know,
• 1:05:19
  you're looking at EBITDA margins of 8085 percent, 90%.
• 1:05:23
  And so when you look at it based off of multiples out in 2027, if
• 1:05:28
  they can get there, then the company looks pretty cheap.
• 1:05:32
  But obviously, you know, if you're short the company, you're
• 1:05:34
  going to harp on the fact that it doesn't have that much in
• 1:05:36
  terms of revenues today, which by the way, the company is going
• 1:05:39
  to generate, is going to is starting to generate revenue.
• 1:05:41
  Now Q3 will be interesting in terms of, you know, the
• 1:05:45
  company's guided to 50 to 75 million of a second-half revenue
• 1:05:49
  for 2025. So they're going to start
• 1:05:51
  reporting that stuff, which is great.
• 1:05:53
  But but yeah, the other thing I I think is important is it, and
• 1:05:56
  it matches this time Verizon is that retail can buy and hold.
• 1:05:59
  They don't as long as you're not doing something stupid, getting
• 1:06:02
  margined or having a lot of margin on or just going nuts
• 1:06:06
  with with options, which you know, I've talked about how you
• 1:06:10
  can do short term plays and as long as you have a very good
• 1:06:13
  sense of price and timing, but also be recognized.
• 1:06:17
  Like if you're this is if you're long options, but recognize like
• 1:06:20
  this is a terror update. You've got to accept the fact
• 1:06:22
  that you're going to be wrong most of the time, but the risk
• 1:06:25
  reward and potential pay off is compensating for it.
• 1:06:29
  You might be able to take, you know, you might take your option
• 1:06:32
  position. But the key thing about retail
• 1:06:33
  is like, you can have a 10% drawdown.
• 1:06:36
  You can have a 20% drawdown, 30%, as long as your spouse,
• 1:06:39
  your husband or your wife is OK with it.
• 1:06:42
  Or maybe they don't know you can ride volatility.
• 1:06:45
  And yeah, maybe from a mental perspective, you know, it, it
• 1:06:48
  may not be the best thing for you, But if you have a 7 to 10%
• 1:06:52
  drawdown at a hedge fund, you're basically done like in a pod
• 1:06:56
  shop, you're done. You know, they cut your capital,
• 1:06:58
  it's hard to make it back. And for all intensive purposes,
• 1:07:01
  like you're out of the game. And that's really tough.
• 1:07:03
  And that that that's why I like from a, if you can imagine, like
• 1:07:07
  some of you guys have put on an option position and it doesn't
• 1:07:11
  go your way And you're just like, you're praying that
• 1:07:13
  something miracles going to happen or you're, or this is
• 1:07:16
  where some of the people on Twitter, they lose their shit.
• 1:07:19
  They like, you know, copy the CEO, CFO of a company that are
• 1:07:22
  like, you need to do something. And so like usually those people
• 1:07:25
  are the ones who are long, short dated options because they truly
• 1:07:28
  need to get bailed out and they need a miracle.
• 1:07:30
  Imagine like you're at a hedge fund and you're down again.
• 1:07:33
  This is like all child's play for for most of us.
• 1:07:35
  But if you're down six 7% on your book, like you're going to
• 1:07:39
  get pretty much fired. And so that's a tremendous
• 1:07:42
  amount of stress. And again, like managing money
• 1:07:44
  professionally. And this is for pod shops.
• 1:07:46
  It's it's tough, it's super stressful.
• 1:07:48
  And that's why you've got people.
• 1:07:50
  And I joke about this. It's like the true short sellers
• 1:07:52
  who make a lot of money. They never post on Twitter
• 1:07:55
  because they're they're making money and they're fine.
• 1:07:57
  The ones who are losing money and are desperate are the ones
• 1:08:00
  who post on Twitter. It's like the pivotal capitals
• 1:08:03
  are are not a capitals who I think Ornata that that Ornata
• 1:08:07
  guy. I think he has shorted ACC
• 1:08:09
  double like in the teens. Then he literally tweeted that.
• 1:08:13
  I mean, I think I'm covering at the top, which was like the 39
• 1:08:16
  Indeed he did and he lost his ass, right.
• 1:08:18
  But the people, the short sellers who, who consistently
• 1:08:21
  lose money, they're the ones who are posting on Twitter because
• 1:08:24
  they're trying to be out there to influence the stock price
• 1:08:28
  because they need to get bailed out.
• 1:08:29
  The ones that like true professional money managers who
• 1:08:32
  actually make money, who are not on the short side, who are not
• 1:08:35
  smash and grab guys like carousel.
• 1:08:37
  They don't post on Twitter. They just like they get edge and
• 1:08:41
  they let the stock do its thing, whether it's a fraud or
• 1:08:44
  something bad happens. And then they making money like
• 1:08:46
  they're not out there trying to influence the stock to go down.
• 1:08:49
  I, I tend to find like the people who do that are the
• 1:08:52
  desperate ones, right? Who who the trade is going
• 1:08:54
  against them, they need it, they need to develop or put flood out
• 1:08:58
  there in order for then they believe like somehow it's going
• 1:09:01
  to influence the stock and they're going to, you know, make
• 1:09:03
  their money back. But the key thing for, you know,
• 1:09:06
  retail is that you can hold the stock.
• 1:09:09
  Extreme example of space mob like there are people who had
• 1:09:13
  8090% draw downs on this position and of course it was an
• 1:09:16
  outsized condition. So it was an even more brutal
• 1:09:21
  financial hit. So you like headphone manager
• 1:09:26
  and say draw down on this position.
• 1:09:32
  Not only that, I didn't sell on the way back up and I held it
• 1:09:35
  all the way through to a 2000% return there.
• 1:09:38
  They would lose their shit. And this is where, you know,
• 1:09:41
  professional main managers are like, that's not supposed to
• 1:09:44
  happen. Like I know what I'm doing.
• 1:09:46
  You don't know what you're doing.
• 1:09:47
  How could you do that? How could you go all the way
• 1:09:49
  down, not take a loss and ride all the way back up?
• 1:09:52
  That's insane. That doesn't make sense.
• 1:09:53
  And that's why I like, you know, that's why they lose their shit
• 1:09:58
  when they see retail investors who go through this like crazy,
• 1:10:01
  you know, levels of volatility actually make it out on the
• 1:10:04
  other end. And by the way, it doesn't
• 1:10:06
  always end up happy. Like there's people who have put
• 1:10:09
  a decent amount of money or net worth into your position and
• 1:10:12
  it's gone South and then it's it never returned or were.
• 1:10:15
  And this these are the really unfortunate stories.
• 1:10:17
  There were people who were long HD space mobile who were
• 1:10:21
  dedicated and we're in it and bleed for a year or two.
• 1:10:24
  And then when the big draw down happened, they held all the way
• 1:10:27
  through. And then for whatever reason,
• 1:10:29
  like something snapped, right? Whether it's people who are
• 1:10:32
  fighting, which there quite a few of them, or they just, yeah,
• 1:10:36
  they reached their limit. They were they they didn't what
• 1:10:38
  they risked was too much. And for the reason they decided,
• 1:10:41
  hey, down 90%, I'm cutting this. And you know, maybe like it's a
• 1:10:45
  catch. I mean, it's going to offset
• 1:10:46
  some capital gains or whatever it is.
• 1:10:49
  Or they did what they had to do to get right and then they
• 1:10:53
  didn't get back into it. And that, that is brutal.
• 1:10:56
  Like I I remember talking to a few people about it where I
• 1:10:59
  don't know what if that would have done with myself, like I
• 1:11:01
  had a high level conviction. I mean, everyone knows like it's
• 1:11:04
  not as if it's blind. Everybody when you're in a
• 1:11:06
  position and it's down a lot, you you question it, right, you
• 1:11:09
  and that's what everything could investor does you you're like,
• 1:11:11
  well, did I get something wrong? Am I is there a blind spot?
• 1:11:14
  I'm not seeing something? And then and you re underwrite
• 1:11:17
  the position and you and you're like, OK, you know, I think I
• 1:11:21
  think I'm right. I'm going to continue to hold
• 1:11:23
  this or I'm going to buy more. And, and that's where retail is
• 1:11:25
  different because you have the luxury of being able to wait
• 1:11:28
  stuff out as long as, of course, as long as you're not in margin
• 1:11:31
  and you're not along options, you know, perhaps leaps, I
• 1:11:34
  guess, but you have the ability to, to ride cycles in markets,
• 1:11:38
  right, as long as you do it in a responsible manner.
• 1:11:40
  Whereas professional money managers, they don't have that
• 1:11:42
  luxury. They have to always be
• 1:11:44
  performing and it's a really tough job.
• 1:11:47
  And so I think, like, I think when on the one side, when
• 1:11:50
  people, professional money managers are telling you what
• 1:11:52
  you should be doing and criticizing you, like you're
• 1:11:55
  dumb to hold this thing, then you can kind of like understand
• 1:11:57
  where they're coming from, which is like, oh, they have a
• 1:11:59
  different perspective, but they can't operate that way.
• 1:12:02
  And so you have to kind of recognize that and not beat
• 1:12:04
  people up for it because it's, it's a different, it's a
• 1:12:07
  different mentality, right. And, and on the flip side,
• 1:12:09
  letter from perspective like they're not going to understand
• 1:12:12
  you. And that's OK too.
• 1:12:14
  You know, it's like, I think, I think whenever people are
• 1:12:19
  tweeting stuff, you just have to understand their perspective.
• 1:12:22
  If they're selling a subscription service.
• 1:12:25
  And one of the things you have to ask yourself is like, why are
• 1:12:27
  they selling subscription service?
• 1:12:28
  If they're really good at what they do and they're making a lot
• 1:12:30
  of money, then why do they need to sell subscription?
• 1:12:33
  But then there are people who are young, who are young, who
• 1:12:36
  don't have capital to manage, or they haven't been in it long,
• 1:12:38
  but they're really good with ideas.
• 1:12:40
  Or there's some people who are actually really good at ideas
• 1:12:42
  and they, they can't manage capital.
• 1:12:44
  And there are people like that, For example, some people are in
• 1:12:47
  the South side, they come up with great ideas.
• 1:12:49
  But then when it comes to actually investing, pulling the
• 1:12:51
  trigger, and this is like in investing, there's different
• 1:12:53
  kinds of people. Like if you're a portfolio
• 1:12:54
  manager, you need to be able to, to manage risk and pull the
• 1:12:57
  trigger. Like that's a really tough job,
• 1:12:59
  like pull the trigger and cut losses, right?
• 1:13:02
  But then you might have an ALS who's really good at researching
• 1:13:05
  ideas, but they have no no way to like understand when to enter
• 1:13:09
  a position, when to exit a position, how to size it, how to
• 1:13:12
  manage risk, you know, but they might be a good fundamental at
• 1:13:16
  all, right. And so there's a lot of
• 1:13:17
  different, you know, types of investors out there.
• 1:13:20
  But I think it's important like when people and this is, you
• 1:13:24
  know, having respect for a professional manning managers
• 1:13:27
  like it's a really tough job. And I think like the mentality
• 1:13:30
  you have to operate there, it's very different than from up from
• 1:13:33
  retail investor. And for retail investor, you can
• 1:13:35
  make a ton of mistakes and it's forgivable, right?
• 1:13:38
  Like you're only answering to yourself or perhaps your spouse.
• 1:13:41
  But it's a very different construct to operate in.
• 1:13:45
  And I think it's important to recognize like, you know,
• 1:13:47
  there's some people out there who are like, well, AST space
• 1:13:50
  mobile is like 80% of your portfolio.
• 1:13:51
  That's like totally irresponsible.
• 1:13:53
  What? Hold on.
• 1:13:53
  Like, let's put some context around that AST space Mobile
• 1:13:56
  used to be 20% of My Portfolio and it just happened to grow up
• 1:13:59
  to 80%. Like if you give someone the
• 1:14:01
  context of that, it's like, OK, so you're playing the house
• 1:14:04
  money now. And OK, that kind of makes
• 1:14:06
  sense. And you believe in a company
• 1:14:07
  like, why not just. And you think you're positive on
• 1:14:09
  it. You're still positive on it.
• 1:14:10
  And you've sold a decent amount that recovered your investment
• 1:14:14
  and paid for taxes. And you're basically.
• 1:14:16
  And this is, this is like Nirvana for me, which is, yeah,
• 1:14:19
  I keep trying to tell Kook and other people who are like in
• 1:14:22
  Kook's camp where they're just like extremists.
• 1:14:25
  It's like sell a decent amount where you're comfortable, where
• 1:14:28
  and to the point where the rest that you have, you can ride it
• 1:14:31
  to Valhalla. Like it doesn't matter if it's
• 1:14:33
  like down 30% one day or if it's up 2X the next day.
• 1:14:38
  Like you're just, it's it, you're just, you're just happy,
• 1:14:42
  right? Because you took your piece of
• 1:14:43
  the cake and you've set it aside and the rest like it's just,
• 1:14:47
  it's just gravy. And so like, that's my position
• 1:14:50
  right now where I have a huge like long term.
• 1:14:53
  Fortunately, the warrants though, that I exercise last
• 1:14:55
  year, they, they all, all stock that I exercise in the taxable
• 1:14:59
  accounts that went long term at the end of September.
• 1:15:02
  And so, so, but then, you know, I've got a lot in retirement
• 1:15:05
  accounts, which is great too. But for me, you know, I'm able
• 1:15:10
  to ride volatility because I really don't care because I've
• 1:15:13
  already made a lot of money. And I took, I took aside some of
• 1:15:16
  it and then the rest is just like, you know what people talk
• 1:15:19
  about like generational wealth and all this other shit.
• 1:15:21
  It's like, yeah, I can just write it.
• 1:15:23
  I don't care. Like, and I can let the company
• 1:15:25
  cook, like let them do their thing.
• 1:15:27
  And, and I'm going to go out there and educate people on what
• 1:15:30
  the company is doing. And, and you know, I'm, and by
• 1:15:33
  the way, like everybody talks the book, right?
• 1:15:35
  Like, so I'm, I'm bullish on ASD because I own it.
• 1:15:38
  And if I wasn't bullish, then I wouldn't own it.
• 1:15:41
  So like that's the, that's kind of like when people are like,
• 1:15:44
  well, I don't know if he's he's biased or it's like, yeah, I am
• 1:15:48
  biased because I own a shit load of this company and I'm very
• 1:15:50
  bullish on it. And it's done amazingly well for
• 1:15:52
  me and other people. And so I'm biased and I'm OK
• 1:15:56
  with that. Like that's, that's how
• 1:15:58
  investing works, that's how you build up conviction.
• 1:16:01
  You can also be skeptical, which I I've been skeptical and
• 1:16:04
  there's risks, of course, and I think about it everyday, But at
• 1:16:07
  the same time, like I talked about this coming because I
• 1:16:09
  believe in it. Like if I didn't, then I
• 1:16:11
  wouldn't talk about it. And so, but I think you're going
• 1:16:14
  back to retail investors and, and for ACC mobile in
• 1:16:18
  particular, you know, everybody has different responses, right?
• 1:16:21
  And so I think someone who just bought the stock today, it has
• 1:16:26
  very different risk parameters and different view versus
• 1:16:29
  someone who has been has owned this thing for five years.
• 1:16:33
  But obviously if you know, Kook said in his space, you're going
• 1:16:35
  to be buying the stock of $66. If you thought that the upside
• 1:16:39
  was only 270, you're buying it today at 66 because you think
• 1:16:43
  that this is going to be like, you know, $100 by the end of the
• 1:16:48
  year. It's going to be has the
• 1:16:50
  potential be $300 in two years that that's the framework that
• 1:16:53
  people are thinking through when evaluating this company.
• 1:16:57
  And I think interestingly, it has been a lot of a lot of the
• 1:17:03
  research and conviction around the name has been retail
• 1:17:06
  focused. But obviously that's been
• 1:17:07
  changing over the years where, you know, there was a handful of
• 1:17:10
  institutions before, but that that of course has been growing
• 1:17:13
  more recently in this we get closer to commercialization.
• 1:17:15
  I think that's going to ramp up significantly, right?
• 1:17:17
  Because you know, there's a lot of different ways to, if I was
• 1:17:20
  to go to a hedge fund dinner and then pitch an idea, you know,
• 1:17:23
  one of my opening things for this would be like, oh, hey,
• 1:17:26
  there's Starlink. It's it's valued at $250
• 1:17:28
  billion. And here's AST space mobile.
• 1:17:30
  And they're for this particular market, which is massive in
• 1:17:34
  size, which is providing broadband connectivity to your
• 1:17:37
  mobile phone. Their leader and Starlink
• 1:17:40
  thought it was important enough and they got into the market as
• 1:17:42
  well and they spent $19 billion in spectrum.
• 1:17:44
  What could this company be worth, right, if Starlink And
• 1:17:47
  obviously there's like the fixed broadband business for Starlink.
• 1:17:49
  But if you look at Morgan Stanley and other research
• 1:17:53
  analysts who have published on Starlink, all the growth is
• 1:17:56
  coming from direct advice in the future.
• 1:17:58
  It's not going to be fixed wireless.
• 1:18:00
  And So what would you pay for AC space mobile?
• 1:18:02
  Like the fact that, and I mentioned this before in a
• 1:18:05
  conversation I had, I talked about like how crazy it is that
• 1:18:08
  we are in my case, in a lot of people's cases, like we've held
• 1:18:11
  this stock for, well, first of all, we, we bought it, we got
• 1:18:14
  involved. And for most people buy, you
• 1:18:17
  know, it was by chance, but then as you researched it, you know,
• 1:18:21
  for someone to buy it in 2020-2021 and to hold on for to
• 1:18:25
  it for all these years, it's like what were the clues, right?
• 1:18:28
  Because there were obviously a lot of companies that came
• 1:18:30
  public in 2021. But for me, the biggest thing
• 1:18:32
  when I saw the deck when they went public was the fact that
• 1:18:36
  you had, you know, Vodafone, Ecken Tower, which in like all
• 1:18:40
  these MN OS and infrastructure guys invested in the company.
• 1:18:44
  And then, then the key thing for me was AT&T, right?
• 1:18:47
  The fact that AT&T was a strategic partner.
• 1:18:49
  They hadn't made an investment at the time, but they were
• 1:18:51
  working closely with company. You know, Vodafone had been
• 1:18:55
  working closely their engineers with company since 2000.
• 1:18:58
  I think it was like they started working together the summer of
• 1:19:00
  2018. But it was like the fact that
• 1:19:03
  the M and OS were there, they had solved the business model
• 1:19:05
  problem. That gave me conviction because
• 1:19:08
  at the end of the day, I'm just a retail investor.
• 1:19:11
  Yeah, I was a professional before and I've, I'd had due to,
• 1:19:15
  you know, I had calls with Adele and and Scott before.
• 1:19:19
  But at the same time, it's like I'm not that engineer.
• 1:19:21
  I'm not a specialist. I don't have an ability to
• 1:19:24
  discern whether this truly will work or not.
• 1:19:27
  But for me, the fact that the MO's were backing it and they
• 1:19:30
  had tested it and they had committed to it, you know, AT&T,
• 1:19:33
  they'd signed A5 year exclusivity for me.
• 1:19:35
  That's, that's what really did it where I was like when I
• 1:19:38
  looked at the past of all these satellite operators who had
• 1:19:41
  failed this company, like came up with a really novel idea of
• 1:19:45
  working with existing phones, which, you know, that's all the
• 1:19:48
  the install base and, and they're working with M and OS
• 1:19:51
  with just distribution. And then those guys also
• 1:19:54
  invested. I mean, those were huge
• 1:19:56
  validation points for me, which it wasn't easy in 2022 and 2023
• 1:20:00
  to hold on to the thing when the market is down and you know,
• 1:20:03
  there was a lot of doubt and of course, you know, maze hairs or
• 1:20:06
  whatever, but. Those things are, you know, the
• 1:20:09
  M and OS have always been a key aspect and what differentiated
• 1:20:13
  this company and the fact that when it went public, it had
• 1:20:16
  like, I forgot, I did put the numbers together, but it was
• 1:20:19
  like, I think it was like 13 M and OS in 2021 and now we're at
• 1:20:22
  over 50. It's like, OK, yeah, maybe one
• 1:20:25
  or two M and OS. Maybe they're not very smart and
• 1:20:28
  they they you know, they made it.
• 1:20:31
  Their engineers aren't that smart and and they got
• 1:20:32
  bamboozled, but it's like 50 M and OS and like Vodafone, AT&T,
• 1:20:37
  ACO 10 engineers who are working closely with the company.
• 1:20:41
  They all keep trucking checks and they're all still working
• 1:20:43
  the company. Then Verizon, you know, 2024,
• 1:20:45
  they evaluated Starlink, they evaluate ASD space mobile and
• 1:20:49
  they went with ASD. It's like, OK, that's a huge
• 1:20:51
  validation for him. That's I mean, when Verizon came
• 1:20:53
  on board, that's when the stock went from the teens to, you
• 1:20:56
  know, it re rated to the 30s. And so the reason why I pointed
• 1:21:00
  that out is that part of it, part of it coming across this
• 1:21:03
  investment was luck for me. But then once the deal was
• 1:21:05
  announced and I reviewed it, the other part was like being able
• 1:21:08
  to assess like there's something truly special here.
• 1:21:11
  Like they're attacking a massive market and they've got these
• 1:21:13
  strategic partners that it's not just fluff like they're they're
• 1:21:17
  helping develop this technology hand in hand.
• 1:21:20
  And so and then that kind of dissuade like this whole idea,
• 1:21:23
  like it's not a real market. Well, it's not a real market.
• 1:21:25
  Then why are these M and OS who know their customer best?
• 1:21:28
  Why are they investing and why are they fully committed to
• 1:21:30
  this? The reason why I pointed that
• 1:21:32
  out is that, you know, in 2021 there were all these companies
• 1:21:34
  that went public that were absolute failures, right?
• 1:21:37
  And they were interesting ideas, but then they didn't make it.
• 1:21:41
  And so, and I think this is where retail obviously people
• 1:21:44
  get a bad rap. It's like, oh, well, they retail
• 1:21:47
  got fleeced on these different names that didn't work on which
• 1:21:49
  by the way, like I was involved, I invested in some of the names
• 1:21:52
  that didn't work out. And that's just by the way, like
• 1:21:55
  that's part of investing. Like if you're batting above
• 1:21:58
  50%, if you're batting 60% winners as an investor, like
• 1:22:02
  that's a really high batting percentage.
• 1:22:04
  And for this, this name in particular, and this is, this is
• 1:22:07
  something I wanted to talk about after, you know, chatting with
• 1:22:10
  some people in space, space Bob, like this is a was a very unique
• 1:22:13
  situation, like right time, right place, like AC space
• 1:22:17
  bubble should have never gone public.
• 1:22:19
  But because of COVID and and the amount of liquidity that was in
• 1:22:22
  the market pre revenue companies at that level of development,
• 1:22:26
  which, you know, this company was basically a series B or
• 1:22:28
  series C company that went public.
• 1:22:31
  They shouldn't have gone public, but we were able for better or
• 1:22:33
  for worse, we were able to invest and kind of see this
• 1:22:36
  company through all the the different stages of the
• 1:22:38
  development. So AST and I can say this now
• 1:22:41
  because we're at the right point in a traditional market, AST
• 1:22:45
  would be going public now on the cusp of generating revenues in
• 1:22:51
  second-half of this year. Actually, you take it back in a
• 1:22:54
  traditional IPO process, AST space movement would be going
• 1:22:58
  public in the first, first quarter of 2026.
• 1:23:01
  And I would say like it probably coming out at this valuation or
• 1:23:07
  slightly higher. But imagine that we actually got
• 1:23:10
  involved five years ago. We got to see as a public
• 1:23:14
  company how the sausage was made and all the company's ups and
• 1:23:17
  downs. But we got in at such a low
• 1:23:19
  valuation and we suffered for it and we lost hair, you know,
• 1:23:23
  whatever it is, sleepless nights.
• 1:23:25
  We were able to invest in that early stage and of course, if
• 1:23:28
  somebody got scrutinized and short sellers, all that shit,
• 1:23:31
  right? But now it's kind of funny to
• 1:23:34
  think that at the company stage of development, it would
• 1:23:36
  probably be going public in the first quarter of next year.
• 1:23:38
  The reason why I say that is you know, you, you want to take a
• 1:23:40
  company public when it has, when it's achieves like revenue and
• 1:23:45
  it's on the cusp of commercialization, all this
• 1:23:47
  other stuff. Like that's probably when it
• 1:23:48
  would go public. Actually, if it were to go
• 1:23:50
  public with a consolation fully deployed and it's generating a
• 1:23:54
  lot of revenues, then it wouldn't be coming out at $20
• 1:23:56
  billion. It would be coming out at $100
• 1:23:57
  billion evaluation. I mean, who knows, right?
• 1:24:01
  It's just kind of funny how because of COVID and the Fed, we
• 1:24:04
  were able to invest in this company.
• 1:24:06
  And I, you know, I look back and like, I talked to Tut and Patsy
• 1:24:11
  and Kook about this. I mean, we were all really
• 1:24:13
  lucky. We caught lightning in a bottle,
• 1:24:15
  right? We, this was all an organic.
• 1:24:18
  Like, on the one hand, this was a SPAC and like, you know, I
• 1:24:22
  happen to invest in this SPAC prior to the deal being
• 1:24:24
  announced. And so I was forced to look at
• 1:24:26
  this name. And then when I looked at, I was
• 1:24:28
  like, holy shit, this is really great.
• 1:24:29
  And so I just kept buying more of it.
• 1:24:32
  I got too big too early. And then of course, like the
• 1:24:35
  company went through May 22 and 2023 when the Fed like raised
• 1:24:39
  rates and try to fight inflation and basically killed all these
• 1:24:42
  speculative names. The company had to suffer
• 1:24:44
  through that. And of course, delays.
• 1:24:45
  Like if you're a company trying to achieve the grand ambitions
• 1:24:48
  of what they're trying to do, you need capital.
• 1:24:50
  And, and the company would start with the capital.
• 1:24:52
  And so there was this like a time death March of trying to
• 1:24:55
  make it through just scrapping. But during that period like
• 1:24:59
  this, like this community investment community from all
• 1:25:02
  walks of life came together unlike any others out there in
• 1:25:05
  the in this age of social media where people could connect and
• 1:25:09
  and leverage different research. Yeah, it's a very unique thing.
• 1:25:14
  And we're lucky, quite candidly, that it all worked out.
• 1:25:17
  I mean, for the company there, I'm sure there were plenty of
• 1:25:20
  sliding door moments where, you know, they had to raise the 100
• 1:25:24
  million of equity after the AT&T, Google, Vodafone invested
• 1:25:27
  in. And there are a lot of people
• 1:25:28
  when the stock cratered, they gave up on the name, you know,
• 1:25:31
  Scott and about knew like, hey, we need to raise this, this
• 1:25:34
  additional capital to get us through to make sure we have a
• 1:25:37
  cushion. Because they're not going to
• 1:25:38
  operate this company as they've said, like as an option.
• 1:25:42
  They're trying to operate, they're trying to build like a
• 1:25:43
  long term business. They needed to raise that
• 1:25:45
  capital, that painful raise, absolutely painful to make it to
• 1:25:49
  the point where they would then and I'm guessing like Verizon
• 1:25:52
  need more time for due diligence.
• 1:25:54
  But then come May, hey, we got this, got this investment from
• 1:25:57
  Verizon there and we've got this MOU, we're going to work towards
• 1:26:01
  a definitive agreement. But Verizon's working with AT&T,
• 1:26:03
  they're contributing spectrum and that was like a complete
• 1:26:06
  game changer. If they had to raise that $100
• 1:26:08
  million to make it to the next the next node, which then was
• 1:26:12
  the money shot, right? It totally changed the game.
• 1:26:15
  And we, we've heard this from Scott that all the Department of
• 1:26:18
  Defense, like all these people in government started calling
• 1:26:20
  them like, oh shit, they got Verizon and AT&T like, OK, these
• 1:26:24
  guys are real. But yeah, it's it, we, we were
• 1:26:27
  all lucky. And it's, it's funny like how
• 1:26:29
  it's not funny or we can laugh about it now, but when you hear
• 1:26:31
  everybody's personal stories of like the pain they went through,
• 1:26:34
  how they came across his name and then how they got involved
• 1:26:37
  and how they were on the precipice of financial ruin,
• 1:26:40
  right. And for me that that was true
• 1:26:43
  too. You know, I've had a, I've had a
• 1:26:44
  pretty decent, you know, career in, in finance industry and
• 1:26:47
  saved a decent amount of money and, you know, was, was somewhat
• 1:26:52
  comfortable, I guess. But I also believed in this
• 1:26:54
  company and, and got involved in SPAC's and made a lot of money,
• 1:26:57
  paid a ton of taxes, like got wiped out in 20 my public
• 1:27:01
  portfolio like in 2022-2023 or sorry, 24 was the worst.
• 1:27:06
  But AST obviously it was like at 2 bucks.
• 1:27:08
  And yeah, for me, like my warrants were worth, they got
• 1:27:12
  down to like a few $100,000 in value.
• 1:27:13
  And it was that was really painful because I was down a
• 1:27:16
  lot. And then and of course like for
• 1:27:18
  that from that point in time over May, June where everything
• 1:27:22
  turned around that that few 100,000 that was left in that
• 1:27:26
  position ended up being worth 10s of millions of dollars.
• 1:27:28
  And that's a story that I mean, like, you know, I mean, I
• 1:27:32
  consider my position that I have today like really large, but
• 1:27:36
  there's other people like who could have larger positions.
• 1:27:39
  And then there's people out there who are very quiet on
• 1:27:41
  Twitter, who I've had conversations with who are
• 1:27:44
  comparable in size were not far off.
• 1:27:47
  And so there's actually quite a few people.
• 1:27:49
  And and of course, like, you know, there's people out there
• 1:27:51
  who I mean, basically everyone, it's like life changing money.
• 1:27:55
  It's not just 10s of millions of dollars, it's hundreds of
• 1:27:57
  thousands or whatever it is, right?
• 1:27:59
  It's really gratifying to see that, you know, we, we all were
• 1:28:03
  part of this, the, this company that's, you know, trying to
• 1:28:06
  change, change the world and bring connectivity to everyone.
• 1:28:09
  And we believed in it and we stuck with it, right?
• 1:28:12
  And we, we researched and we galvanized our conviction around
• 1:28:15
  it. And you know, there are people
• 1:28:17
  who will, who will say things like, you guys are crazy and you
• 1:28:20
  shouldn't, you know, you should be telling people to sell and do
• 1:28:23
  this and that. And it's like, dude, don't
• 1:28:25
  assume that people are dumb. Like everybody, it manages their
• 1:28:28
  own risk tolerance. That's right.
• 1:28:29
  And they, I'm sure a lot of people have sold some amount and
• 1:28:34
  you know, whether it's to pay off mortgage or the house that
• 1:28:36
  are do some things. And I've seen people tweet or
• 1:28:39
  thinking like, you know, make donations to their church.
• 1:28:42
  You know, I'm planning, I guess this is a nice plug if you've
• 1:28:45
  done well in the stock. And one very powerful way to
• 1:28:49
  donate money to cherries or nonprofits or your church or you
• 1:28:53
  know, your local PTA set up, either you can do it two ways.
• 1:28:57
  You can donate long term appreciate stock directly to
• 1:29:00
  those organizations that they have it set up, like if they
• 1:29:02
  have a man guard account. The great thing about donating
• 1:29:05
  long term appreciated stock is that you can donate the entire
• 1:29:09
  mount get like if you donate $100.00 with the stock, you get
• 1:29:12
  to write off $100 which is great and then the organization
• 1:29:15
  receiving it they get the $400.00 so no taxes paid which
• 1:29:18
  is which is amazing. Imagine that versus like if you
• 1:29:21
  were to sell stock and you pay long term capital gains and you
• 1:29:24
  only give the organization you know whatever that is.
• 1:29:26
  The other route is you can create a donor advised fund,
• 1:29:29
  which is you can donate you're at stock, long term appreciated
• 1:29:33
  stock to Fidelity or Schwab or whoever.
• 1:29:35
  And then they will invested into things that you determine
• 1:29:39
  whether it's like S&P or whatever.
• 1:29:41
  And then from that pool of you write it off that year that you
• 1:29:44
  donate. And then from that money that
• 1:29:46
  they invest, you can tell them specifically like, hey, I want
• 1:29:49
  to, you know, I want to donate whatever it is like $10,000 to
• 1:29:54
  this cherry and then they will sell and donate it to the
• 1:29:57
  charity and the jury gets you know, the $10,000.
• 1:29:59
  So you pay like a, I think it's like for most places, it's
• 1:30:03
  either a fixed fee of a few $100 a year or it's, it's a fixed
• 1:30:07
  percentage. But anyway, I'm, I'm doing that
• 1:30:09
  this year. I did it last year, you know,
• 1:30:12
  and this is part of like karma, I think for people who've done
• 1:30:15
  well, it's always good to give to good causes that you support.
• 1:30:18
  Just a reminder. But anyway, but yeah, I think, I
• 1:30:21
  think as I was saying before, yeah.
• 1:30:24
  And I think for for space mob, I think we should all be humbled
• 1:30:29
  and grateful, right? Because we're, we're blessed and
• 1:30:32
  we are very lucky. I mean, lucky in a sense of
• 1:30:35
  coming across this investment, however, which way you did.
• 1:30:37
  And then people from different disciplines and, and people who
• 1:30:42
  decide to put themselves out there to kind of educate
• 1:30:45
  investors and give them a sense of like, oh, this is what the
• 1:30:48
  company is doing. This is why it's worth
• 1:30:50
  investment. I remember in the early days and
• 1:30:52
  telling people in 2021, like, yeah, this is AI mean.
• 1:30:56
  This is don't risk more than what you can lose, but you don't
• 1:30:58
  have to size. You can size it pretty small and
• 1:31:00
  it could be a massive return for you, right?
• 1:31:03
  But but yeah, over the years, I think just this community of, of
• 1:31:06
  people and it's grown. It's like, you know, it's all
• 1:31:10
  over the world. It's it's funny.
• 1:31:11
  Like we have, there's like different chats that people have
• 1:31:14
  and people are are doing work constantly.
• 1:31:17
  And so I think the great thing about the community is that, you
• 1:31:20
  know, all the work is for free, right?
• 1:31:21
  Like people are providing perspective.
• 1:31:23
  You know, Patsy is probably the bedrock in this community that
• 1:31:27
  got us through the most difficult times where I think
• 1:31:30
  people question a lot of technical aspects of it of what
• 1:31:33
  the company is doing. But because of his expertise,
• 1:31:36
  you know, I, I can truly say like I would have never held my
• 1:31:38
  investment through. There was years without, you
• 1:31:41
  know, Patsy's insight and a lot of the things that he, you know,
• 1:31:46
  his, his perspective provided and even the speculative stuff
• 1:31:50
  like, yeah, some of it was wrong, but a lot of it was
• 1:31:52
  right. So how many times in life are
• 1:31:55
  you able to do you go into a situation where a complete
• 1:31:58
  stranger is like, Oh yeah, this is these are the here is a
• 1:32:02
  guidebook as to how to navigate this thing.
• 1:32:05
  And this is right, this is wrong, this is right, this is
• 1:32:08
  right, this is right. And you should have conviction.
• 1:32:09
  And then that first that complete stranger is right.
• 1:32:12
  And you've made a lot of money because of it.
• 1:32:14
  It's truly extraordinary. And so, yeah, I think, I think
• 1:32:18
  as we kind of reflect on, I didn't really, again, I didn't
• 1:32:20
  have an agenda for this space. I was going to try to develop
• 1:32:23
  one, but then I just got so busy over the day and I didn't.
• 1:32:25
  But but yeah, I think it's good to take a step back and have
• 1:32:28
  some perspective kind of where where we came from, where we're
• 1:32:31
  going. And when I say where we're
• 1:32:33
  going, I do mean that like we were at the cusp of
• 1:32:36
  commercialization. This is and you know, that tweet
• 1:32:39
  that I had before, this is it. This is why we've been invested
• 1:32:43
  for five some odd years. And I think taking stock of the
• 1:32:47
  fact that, yeah, there's going to be delays and whether it's
• 1:32:50
  days, it's weeks, there's going to be, you know, there's going
• 1:32:53
  to be hiccups along the way. But this is it.
• 1:32:55
  This is why we've been investing and have been doing the
• 1:32:59
  research. You know, now it's coming to
• 1:33:01
  your now it's coming to your fruition. 2026 is going to be a
• 1:33:03
  huge year. Like if you liked 2024 and you
• 1:33:06
  like 25, you're going to love 26 because that's when this becomes
• 1:33:12
  a reality. And so I think it's important to
• 1:33:15
  stay focused. You know, on days like this,
• 1:33:18
  it's great. Everyone feels great and
• 1:33:19
  everyone's high fiving and drinking Doctor Pepper and
• 1:33:22
  ordering like an extra large steak for dinner.
• 1:33:25
  But there's going to be those negative days too, right, where
• 1:33:27
  you're going to have, and you know, some of the accounts that
• 1:33:30
  are out there. I think Antonio Lenares, you
• 1:33:33
  know, he's, I guess he's polarizing to some extent for
• 1:33:35
  some people. But I think one of the things
• 1:33:38
  did he say or, you know, he was like, oh, you know, for high
• 1:33:40
  growth stocks, a 30% drawdown for no reason is just, it just
• 1:33:44
  happens. And and it's true.
• 1:33:46
  It's like for names that have high level potential but are
• 1:33:50
  uncertain, you're going to have 20 percent, 30% drawdowns,
• 1:33:54
  right, which is what we had after until until you have a
• 1:33:59
  solid business that's executing and there's, you know,
• 1:34:03
  generating revenues and cash flows Like it, it's easy for a
• 1:34:06
  stock to kind of get bumped around because people, whether
• 1:34:08
  it's like someone wakes up and walks out of the bed at some
• 1:34:10
  institution and decide to sell, you know, 20% of the position
• 1:34:13
  and it moves the stock like that's going to happen.
• 1:34:15
  But I think it's important for people to understand in a, a
• 1:34:19
  huge opportunity, but very volatile name like HD space
• 1:34:23
  mobile, I like to say this, it's like big draw downs and
• 1:34:27
  volatility are feature. They're not a bug.
• 1:34:29
  Like it's just going to happen. And that's why I like to tell
• 1:34:31
  people, do not, do not margin, do not trade on margin.
• 1:34:35
  Or if you, I mean, actually I need to go back, do not invest
• 1:34:38
  on margin if you're going to trade very short term and like
• 1:34:41
  be kind of on margin. And I guess that's OK if you
• 1:34:44
  know what you're doing, but don't ever be on margin because
• 1:34:47
  that's the quickest way to ruin. If you, you're the volatile
• 1:34:50
  side, great opportunity, but it's going to be volatile.
• 1:34:53
  And then I'm going to marry it with leveraging up and margin.
• 1:34:56
  That's the quickest way for you to lose money because just
• 1:34:59
  day-to-day chop, you're going to you need a tap to your position
• 1:35:02
  at the wrong time. That we saw that with a lot of a
• 1:35:05
  lot of people before. And I think the other thing is
• 1:35:06
  like the other thing I want to talk about is just very briefly
• 1:35:10
  is the fact that, you know, when executives at ACC Global sell
• 1:35:14
  stock, which by the way, like they've, they haven't really
• 1:35:17
  sold much of anything. I mean, a Bell had a slight
• 1:35:19
  collar transaction to hedge some part of his position, but he's
• 1:35:23
  pretty much falls in, I think it was like 5% of his position.
• 1:35:27
  And then you've got people like Scott who are, you know, who
• 1:35:33
  sell some stock from time to time, but most of it is for
• 1:35:36
  taxes. These guys have been eating,
• 1:35:39
  sleeping, like living HT space mobile.
• 1:35:41
  Well, in the Bells situation, 0% and he's not taking any salary.
• 1:35:46
  Then for Scott, he's taking like, I don't know, $250,000,
• 1:35:49
  which the guy is like commuting between where he lives in the
• 1:35:53
  Northeast and like Miami and he's travelling all over the
• 1:35:55
  place. He's got a family, his wife's at
• 1:35:57
  home probably, you know, taking care of these kids and they
• 1:36:00
  probably need our help. Like that's not a lot of money
• 1:36:02
  to survive on for my executive, the the company I've invested
• 1:36:07
  in. Like I want them to not live
• 1:36:10
  hand to mouth. Like I want to live in some
• 1:36:12
  level of comfort, right? And so selling some level of
• 1:36:16
  stock is just a good thing to do.
• 1:36:18
  I remember when I worked in banking when the senior partners
• 1:36:21
  told me, Hey, when you get stock grass, you should sell because
• 1:36:25
  not only are you receiving, you know, you're getting you own
• 1:36:29
  stock in this company, but you're also generating income.
• 1:36:31
  So you have 100% exposure to this company.
• 1:36:33
  You should sell the stock and then go invest it somewhere
• 1:36:36
  else. Like go invest in the market or
• 1:36:39
  go do some others hard to invest.
• 1:36:40
  I think this whole notion of like that, you know, you get
• 1:36:44
  from that in time, especially right at Oh my God, there's like
• 1:36:46
  a bunch of animals there. You'll see them say, oh, they
• 1:36:50
  shouldn't be selling it in stock.
• 1:36:51
  Scott, if he believes that there's all this positive stuff,
• 1:36:54
  we should just be all in and he should just this is this is a
• 1:36:56
  good one. He should get a margin loan
• 1:36:58
  against all of his holdings and just live off of that.
• 1:37:01
  And it's like, OK, so you want the executives to get into
• 1:37:05
  leverage transactions on his stock against it.
• 1:37:09
  And then when the inevitable like volatility happens or they
• 1:37:13
  get margin called or like if the company has a set back, you want
• 1:37:16
  them to be in a desperate position to make bad, like bad
• 1:37:19
  decisions. No, no, you want them to be
• 1:37:24
  financially comfortable to degree, but be incentivized on
• 1:37:27
  the opportunity. Like they want to be positively
• 1:37:31
  incentive to, you know, incentivize to do what's good
• 1:37:33
  for the companies. For whatever reason, some people
• 1:37:36
  have this like crazy notion that the company no executive should
• 1:37:39
  ever sell stock ever. And if they do, then that's the
• 1:37:42
  time to register it, which is really stupid.
• 1:37:44
  But anyway, I'm going to pause there then rambling, which
• 1:37:48
  actually today I went Apple picking the family and then and
• 1:37:51
  I was like trying to trade to some extent.
• 1:37:54
  And then I was tied up. But I yeah, I was thinking about
• 1:37:57
  all these other things that the stock was going up and so, yeah,
• 1:38:02
  so I just shared all that. But anyway, let me just look at
• 1:38:05
  some of the comments here. I'm going to drink some of this
• 1:38:07
  Doctor Pepper. Let's see.
• 1:38:08
  Here's some questions. What do you think comes next?
• 1:38:11
  Verizon DA first at Goldendone or something else?
• 1:38:13
  That's a good question. I think all of them could come
• 1:38:16
  next. I don't know in what particular
• 1:38:18
  order, but I think, I think Verizon is very close.
• 1:38:21
  I think Firstnet, that's the one that we always joke about
• 1:38:23
  because it's always imminent. But then I do think, and this is
• 1:38:26
  a funny part, right? Like there's all these data
• 1:38:28
  points in the market, like Firstnet board meeting, they
• 1:38:31
  talk very specific about satellites.
• 1:38:32
  And so they've basically told us and yeah, is it priced in?
• 1:38:35
  You know, I, I don't think it's priced in because for most
• 1:38:39
  institutions who have like barely a cursory knowledge of AC
• 1:38:43
  space Mole and have no idea that the company's working with
• 1:38:46
  Firstnet. But I think that investment and
• 1:38:49
  or commercial agreements coming soon.
• 1:38:51
  Golden Dome, who knows, right? Like the, the government
• 1:38:54
  shutdown probably not happening right now, but it will happen
• 1:38:58
  and that could be in the next few days or weeks.
• 1:39:00
  But the thing that I would point people back to you is that this
• 1:39:04
  stuff is, it's inevitable. Like I know like everybody gets
• 1:39:08
  frustrated and they want stuff to happen yesterday.
• 1:39:10
  And it's like, oh God, I, I want to own options.
• 1:39:13
  And so they need to happen by next week or the week after.
• 1:39:15
  I would say like just own stock and just sit back and just let
• 1:39:19
  things happen. Like the company's executing and
• 1:39:22
  things are happening on their own time frame.
• 1:39:24
  And we all know space is hard. Like some of this stuff is going
• 1:39:27
  to get pushed out and so don't lose your shit if it doesn't
• 1:39:30
  happen in time frame that you, you think it should happen, just
• 1:39:34
  let it happen. When the people were crying at
• 1:39:36
  36 and oh God, there were, there were quite a few or people who,
• 1:39:40
  who were upset and stock was at 50 who were saying we're
• 1:39:43
  complaining about execution. It's like now Fast forward what,
• 1:39:47
  2 days, three days, the stock's at 66.
• 1:39:49
  And yeah, the, the market, by the way, like as I mentioned
• 1:39:52
  before, the market is frothy to degree.
• 1:39:54
  And so there's probably some level of like, you know, beta as
• 1:39:58
  well, but clearly the market given what the company's
• 1:40:02
  announced recently, but that the Bluebirds are ready, they're
• 1:40:05
  ready to ship. And then, you know, you've got
• 1:40:06
  Bell Canada and, and today Vodafone also announced like the
• 1:40:10
  opening of the, the testing center in like in Spain.
• 1:40:13
  These are all positive things and you just have to wait.
• 1:40:15
  Like just let it happen. You don't.
• 1:40:17
  Just be patient. Well, there's that meme where
• 1:40:20
  there's a picture of Jesus and it's like, and the guy is like
• 1:40:23
  all beating up. He's like, why do you have to
• 1:40:25
  give me all these difficult, you know, tests And then Jesus is
• 1:40:30
  like all it's simple. All you have to do is hold the
• 1:40:32
  stock. Like you'd have to hold Asts.
• 1:40:34
  Just buy it and hold it. You don't have to do anything.
• 1:40:36
  Stop beating yourself up, stop trying to overthink it.
• 1:40:39
  And I think I that's one other thing that some of us have
• 1:40:43
  talked about with each other as like over trading stuff, right?
• 1:40:46
  Like I have a core position and I'm not, I don't ever touch that
• 1:40:50
  because most of it, by the way, is like in a taxable counselor.
• 1:40:53
  I don't. And this is another aspect that
• 1:40:54
  people kind of forget is like taxes are real.
• 1:40:57
  Like if you chop, you know, you have these like smarty pants
• 1:41:00
  Twitter people or hedge fund guys like, Oh yeah, I chopped, I
• 1:41:03
  chopped 20% here, 10% there. And if I do it, if I can do it
• 1:41:07
  100 times, like I'll make a ton of money.
• 1:41:08
  But it's like, oh, you also have to pay taxes.
• 1:41:10
  Short term capital gains is a real bitch, especially if you
• 1:41:13
  live in New York versus like, oh, if I just hold on to this
• 1:41:16
  thing and I don't sell it and it keeps compounding, I don't know,
• 1:41:20
  30-40, fifty percent every year into perpetuity during its
• 1:41:25
  growth growth phase. Why would I ever sell it and
• 1:41:28
  have to pay capital gains? Because like when you trade
• 1:41:31
  short term, you're basically chopping your capital up by 40,
• 1:41:34
  you know, depending on where you live, like let's say 40% or 45%.
• 1:41:39
  How would you ever do that? Would it's really disingenuous.
• 1:41:42
  People try to compare trading to investing.
• 1:41:45
  They're just two different animals.
• 1:41:47
  And I do a decent amount of trading like this year, I mean,
• 1:41:49
  fortunately I'll be having to pay like a ton of short term
• 1:41:52
  capital gains. Like for example, at position on
• 1:41:54
  Satixfy, which you know, people know about, like I made almost
• 1:41:58
  $2,000,000 on that. You have to pay short term
• 1:42:01
  capital gains. And that sucks.
• 1:42:02
  But as my dad used to say, just be thankful that you're able to
• 1:42:06
  pay taxes. It's a blessing.
• 1:42:07
  But anyway, let's see, someone said I'd love to talk about
• 1:42:11
  donating with appreciated long term stock and the donor advice
• 1:42:14
  funds. I work at and volunteer
• 1:42:16
  nonprofits. Yeah, I think that's great.
• 1:42:18
  Again, like donating long term appreciated stock directly to
• 1:42:21
  your charity or creating a donor advice fund, you get way more
• 1:42:25
  bang for your buck. You get to write off 100% of it
• 1:42:28
  instead of, you know, selling in taxes and then writing off
• 1:42:32
  whatever it is like if it's long term appreciated, like 80%.
• 1:42:36
  So definitely look into that. It's definitely it's worth it.
• 1:42:38
  And then the organization over seize your money to get, you
• 1:42:43
  know, 100% of the proceeds versus like you selling and then
• 1:42:47
  they only get after time. Let's see what else is there.
• 1:42:50
  Yeah, Koi Fenn. Great, great tool.
• 1:42:52
  Highly recommend people looking look for that.
• 1:42:54
  I actually reached out to the founder of Koi fan I think it
• 1:42:58
  was like 2 years ago asking to see if they were raising around
• 1:43:01
  because I really liked their their product.
• 1:43:04
  We just never I never ended up being with them but I would
• 1:43:07
  recommend them. Let's see what is this?
• 1:43:10
  Sorry, I'm just going through some of these questions to see
• 1:43:12
  if there's anything either. No problem.
• 1:43:14
  Do hedge funds, let's see, hedge funds hire floodsters to so
• 1:43:17
  lies. Yeah, they actually do.
• 1:43:19
  So there are obviously, like industry consultants who spread
• 1:43:25
  FUD because their clients might be positioned a certain way.
• 1:43:28
  There's also, I mean, UC bots, right?
• 1:43:31
  Like trying to control sentiment, whether that's on
• 1:43:33
  Twitter, definitely happens on StockTwits, Reddit, there's
• 1:43:36
  quite a few people there, most likely hired guns.
• 1:43:39
  It's like especially these people like who have no supposed
• 1:43:42
  financial stake and they're just like constantly posting negative
• 1:43:44
  stuff about the company. It's one thing like if you are
• 1:43:47
  negative about AST space mobile and you're short, then I today I
• 1:43:51
  get that like you're trying to talk your book and you want the
• 1:43:54
  stock to go down. So that's fine.
• 1:43:56
  But then there's these like random people who just post
• 1:43:58
  negative stuff who purportedly have no financial incentive.
• 1:44:01
  And so I kind of question like, what are those guys doing?
• 1:44:03
  Like if I had that much free time, I'd be looking for
• 1:44:06
  productive things to do, fun things to do versus like living
• 1:44:10
  rent, having HD live rent via my head.
• 1:44:14
  And, you know, we trying to turn down the company, which it's
• 1:44:17
  funny because of like there's these anonymous accounts on
• 1:44:19
  Twitter or of course, like your favorite consultant, Tim Ferrar.
• 1:44:22
  And he's like, I know better. Like this company is never going
• 1:44:26
  to be able to make it. And you know, they'll get
• 1:44:27
  they'll give you like all these different reasons why it's like,
• 1:44:30
  OK, so you're telling me that you're this anonymous account on
• 1:44:33
  Twitter. You know, better than AT&T,
• 1:44:35
  Verizon, American Tower, all these companies are invested in
• 1:44:38
  the company. Yeah, OK.
• 1:44:39
  Yeah, I will take your opinion over there's, you know, the part
• 1:44:43
  and the fence, USDA. I'll take your opinion over the
• 1:44:46
  Airs and yeah, I'll just sell my position.
• 1:44:48
  No, it's not going to happen. But anyway, let's see here.
• 1:44:51
  What at one point do we know the full satellite constitution will
• 1:44:55
  work at scale? How do we define scale?
• 1:44:57
  Well, I mean, there's five satellites right now and they're
• 1:45:00
  testing those. They're doing, if you can
• 1:45:02
  imagine, like those five satellites they're testing with
• 1:45:05
  all the M and OS like Verizon, AT&T, Vodafone doing hand offs,
• 1:45:10
  like any number of testing you can imagine that they would do
• 1:45:14
  ahead of launching Block 2 satellites and then, you know,
• 1:45:17
  launching full commercial service.
• 1:45:19
  I'm guessing, and this is just my speculation, I'm guessing
• 1:45:22
  they figured out that this does work at scale based off of those
• 1:45:26
  satellites. And so then moving forward with
• 1:45:28
  the bigger satellites, there's going to be, again, there's
• 1:45:31
  going to be like bumps in the road and and kinks to work out.
• 1:45:33
  But I think I think they probably have a good sense that
• 1:45:36
  things are going to work. And so that's why they're
• 1:45:39
  obviously launching the full consolation.
• 1:45:40
  But yeah, it's going to take time.
• 1:45:42
  They've talked about 45 to 60 satellites.
• 1:45:44
  My guess is like for full coverage, that's really good.
• 1:45:47
  It's going to probably be on the further end of that scale with
• 1:45:50
  that, that let's, you know, 60 number.
• 1:45:53
  But yeah, I mean, we'll, we'll see just like they're there's
• 1:45:57
  going to, it's not going to be like Starlink, but obviously
• 1:46:01
  Starlink started service with, with a lower number of
• 1:46:04
  satellites And it's it's going to be similar to that where the
• 1:46:07
  service is going to be very, it's going to, it could be a
• 1:46:09
  little buggy initially, but then they're going to work kinks out.
• 1:46:11
  They're going to add more satellites and then it's going
• 1:46:13
  to get better and better over time.
• 1:46:14
  And I expect that with Starlink like that service is going to
• 1:46:17
  get better over time. And as we've talked, the
• 1:46:19
  Fudsters will say, Oh my gosh, all these guys are what is this?
• 1:46:25
  This is kind of funny. AT&T, just so we were all up at
• 1:46:28
  midnight, huh? Are you serious?
• 1:46:30
  I think AT&T is talking about us.
• 1:46:32
  I got to tweet this right now. This is pretty damn funny.
• 1:46:36
  When you tweet this, you guys should all look at AT&T's
• 1:46:37
  account. Yes, it's space.
• 1:46:39
  Mom is up on Twitter Spaces talking about AT&T and T Space
• 1:46:46
  mobile. That is pretty cool.
• 1:46:47
  I mean, I think they're talking about us anyway.
• 1:46:51
  That's pretty neat. But anyway, now I just lost my
• 1:46:53
  train of thought. I forgot what I was talking
• 1:46:54
  about. All right, I'm going to move on
• 1:46:57
  because I just, it's getting late.
• 1:46:58
  I'm just looking at some of the work.
• 1:47:00
  Do you think professional professor Kevin is angry with
• 1:47:03
  us? How do we get him back?
• 1:47:05
  Also, space mob, we can do better.
• 1:47:07
  Is he angry with us? No, Kevin's not angry.
• 1:47:09
  He's an adult. He also has a pretty thick skin
• 1:47:12
  and he's an academic. Like he's, I, I, I'm guessing
• 1:47:16
  that he's probably, there's probably some annoyance of
• 1:47:20
  people kind of dogging him, which I talked about before.
• 1:47:23
  Like if you're a professional money manager, it's a very
• 1:47:25
  different game for people to make light of it.
• 1:47:28
  Retail investors, I could see it being pretty annoying and
• 1:47:31
  grating. And yeah, he's, he's human.
• 1:47:33
  Everybody's human. Like he took a shot at me and
• 1:47:36
  he's my friends. Do I care?
• 1:47:38
  No. Like if I was down AST Spaceball
• 1:47:40
  was down 20% today and he took a shot at me, then I'd be pretty
• 1:47:44
  pissed off. But I'm pretty happy today.
• 1:47:45
  Like he could say a lot of negative things at me and I'd be
• 1:47:50
  totally fine because I had like a pretty massive update today.
• 1:47:54
  So my tolerance for people being upset and unleashing on me is
• 1:47:59
  pretty high right now and I'm totally cool with that.
• 1:48:01
  So that's fine. Let's see, there's a lot of it's
• 1:48:03
  positive things here. I don't see any.
• 1:48:05
  I don't see too many questions. We need an invest as TS investor
• 1:48:09
  story book. That is a good one.
• 1:48:11
  By the way, like there was AI did try to talk.
• 1:48:14
  There was a the space weekly had hosted Ashley Vance months, the
• 1:48:19
  guy who wrote when the heavens went on sale.
• 1:48:21
  And so we actually exchanged messages and he actually is
• 1:48:25
  originally from Midland, TX. And so I offered to tell him the
• 1:48:29
  ASD space mobile story like about the company and and the
• 1:48:32
  space mob. And I thought I told him like
• 1:48:34
  this would be a great book, you should get ahead of this.
• 1:48:36
  And then for whatever reason, he goes to me, which is fine.
• 1:48:38
  Are we exchanged a few messages and then, you know, people like
• 1:48:41
  him get busy, which is fine. If anyone does have a, a good
• 1:48:45
  writer, I'd be more than happy to work with them.
• 1:48:47
  And I guess eventually I'd get doxed, but I think the story's
• 1:48:50
  pretty cool. I think it'd be a great book and
• 1:48:52
  movie potentially for someone to write to write.
• 1:48:55
  Let's see here. I think that's probably it.
• 1:48:58
  And just see a lot of different comments here.
• 1:49:00
  But I think that's probably, I should probably go to bed.
• 1:49:02
  It's like midnight here in New York.
• 1:49:04
  Let me just check a few more and see a few more messages.
• 1:49:07
  But anyway, yeah, thanks to everyone for attending.
• 1:49:11
  Yeah, this was I didn't have an agenda.
• 1:49:14
  I promise next time I'll have a more structured talk.
• 1:49:17
  But. But yeah, I just wanted to hang
• 1:49:19
  out with you guys and talk about AST and investing and whatever
• 1:49:24
  other stuff and we'll see what tomorrow brings.
• 1:49:26
  I think I've hinted at this before, but there's there some
• 1:49:31
  sense that maybe Verizon is very close and it's going to happen.
• 1:49:34
  And so I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
• 1:49:36
  But at the same time like it's OK if it doesn't happen near
• 1:49:39
  term, like it's another ball, it is going to happen.
• 1:49:42
  And so I think that's a key take away is that we're at the stage
• 1:49:45
  of the company where we've got one half million dollars in
• 1:49:49
  cash. We've got, you know a very
• 1:49:52
  supportive Brandon Carr. You know whether you like him or
• 1:49:55
  dislike him, he is very supportive of this company and
• 1:49:58
  the opportunity and and what we're doing in competition with
• 1:50:02
  China. But we have an FCC that's very
• 1:50:04
  supportive of the company and is moving the register process very
• 1:50:07
  quickly. So you know, commercial approval
• 1:50:10
  for commercial access is coming very soon.
• 1:50:11
  We also have of course the multi launch campaign, which I think
• 1:50:15
  is kicking off this new this basically that rewriting the
• 1:50:19
  stock right where we've gone from a pre revenue company to
• 1:50:23
  now commercialization and cash printing machine turning off.
• 1:50:27
  And so we're at a very unique time and and I think some people
• 1:50:30
  don't like the meme. I think it truly is the case
• 1:50:33
  where we're at the end zone and hold on to the football, score
• 1:50:37
  the points, go in, stay focused and obviously like don't get on
• 1:50:41
  margin and don't go over your fees and manage your risk
• 1:50:44
  appropriately. Don't risk what you're not
• 1:50:46
  willing to lose. But yeah, it's an exciting time.
• 1:50:50
  And I think we talked about catalyst season.
• 1:50:52
  Originally I was going to go through some of the the upcoming
• 1:50:55
  catalyst, but I won't do that tonight.
• 1:50:56
  But you know, there's that tweet that I did quite a while back
• 1:50:59
  that kind of summarizes the things to look forward to.
• 1:51:01
  But The funny thing about this company is like, it's the things
• 1:51:04
  that you're, it's the things that you don't expect that
• 1:51:07
  surprise you, right? And so whether that's like, and
• 1:51:10
  this is what truly cannot be priced in the market, which is
• 1:51:13
  like, you know, the defense use cases, Golden Dome was something
• 1:51:16
  that was not even like a possibility until Trump was
• 1:51:20
  elected. And then, you know, whether it's
• 1:51:22
  him or people he's working with, they decided like a the US
• 1:51:24
  should have this protective shield and it's going to be a
• 1:51:28
  multi billion dollar spend for the government.
• 1:51:31
  And that was not something until probably about December.
• 1:51:34
  No, sorry. Yeah, December, January of, of
• 1:51:37
  this past year. And then you've got all the
• 1:51:40
  other defense use cases that came up.
• 1:51:41
  And then of course, like out of nowhere, the company did this
• 1:51:44
  like super savvy creative deal to buy Legato in January, which
• 1:51:48
  that was something that no one had ever contemplated or thought
• 1:51:51
  was possible. And then of course, like, you
• 1:51:54
  know, Starlink then goes and buys Echostar Spectrum and it's
• 1:51:57
  like, I guess we're doing something right for the people
• 1:52:00
  who were skeptical about that. But yeah, I think it's what what
• 1:52:03
  amazes me is like, we, we our level of due diligence, we know
• 1:52:07
  what we know. And we, and it's like the whole
• 1:52:10
  Donald Trump felt things that I guess like the unknown unknown.
• 1:52:12
  It's like there's a lot of things that this company is
• 1:52:14
  doing. We've speculated, but there's a
• 1:52:16
  lot of things and a lot of applications that are going to
• 1:52:20
  stem from this, this new communications platform right in
• 1:52:23
  the orbit that can connect to not just phones, but any 3 GPP
• 1:52:28
  device. What do you applicate?
• 1:52:29
  Like I think Piranha Capital has talked about this before, like
• 1:52:32
  when new applications and use cases are going to emerge from
• 1:52:36
  this, from a truly fully connected world, broadband
• 1:52:40
  connectivity, it's going to be pretty, pretty insane.
• 1:52:42
  And what is that? What is that worth?
• 1:52:43
  What's that valued? Like, how do you value that
• 1:52:46
  anyway? I will, I will close it there.
• 1:52:48
  Now I'm getting tired and someone joked about me having
• 1:52:50
  probably dry mouth by now, but fortunately I have this Doctor
• 1:52:52
  Pepper, so I'm good. But yeah, let's see what
• 1:52:55
  tomorrow brings. And now that we're starting to
• 1:52:58
  click again, I'm probably going to do more of these spaces.
• 1:53:00
  So yeah, knuckle up and I'll let this run for a while longer.
• 1:53:04
  And thanks, everyone for joining and taking the time to listen.
• 1:53:08
  Yeah, we'll, we'll see what tomorrow brings.
• 1:53:10
  Have a good night. Thanks for listening to the ASM
• 1:53:14
  AST Space Mobile podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and
• 1:53:18
  you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with
• 1:53:20
  others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and
• 1:53:24
  review. To catch all the latest news
• 1:53:26
  about AST Space Mobile, make sure to subscribe.
• 1:53:30
  Thanks again and I'll see you next time.
• 1:53:36
  We're doing something very, very big.
• 1:53:37
  Connecting with this technology. We can really affect billion
• 1:53:40
  lives. AFT Space Global is the only
• 1:53:43
  company that has full technology to deliver cellular.
• 1:53:47
  Mobile connectivity directly from space to.
• 1:53:50
  The everyday smartphone people will just basically turn their
• 1:53:53
  phone and be seamless, regardless of where you are.
• 1:53:56
  We don't want the user to know that it's connected by
• 1:53:59
  satellite. Our role is to bring this into
• 1:54:03
  reality, always in partnership with the MMO.
• 1:54:12
  Listen, Waffles.