Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Japan Rate Hike Fears Over?📈Crypto Market Update

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Japan Rate Hike Fears Over?📈Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Japan has their rate hike. In is the bottom near.
0:03
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Speaker 1: into it.
0:50
Speaker 2: Of course.
0:51
Speaker 1: One of the things that we've been all wondering is
0:54
Speaker 1: how the Japanese rate hike would affect the markets. The
0:58
Speaker 1: tenure yield rose to percent for the first time nearly
1:01
Speaker 1: twenty years, is something that we've been seeing. The decision
1:03
Speaker 1: was fully expected and passed unanimously. U Ada, of course
1:08
Speaker 1: struck a cautious tone around real rates that are still negative.
1:12
Speaker 1: Conditions still remain a little bit loose here. And also
1:15
Speaker 1: if you look at the markets, they took it pretty well.
1:17
Speaker 1: When you look at the dollar versus the yen, which
1:20
Speaker 1: edged higher, nickay was steady, and risk assets were somewhat supported,
1:26
Speaker 1: meaning crypto and of course no signs of carry trade
1:28
Speaker 1: stress or the hawkish surprise, which is the big issue.
1:32
Speaker 1: The carry trade is the one that we are a
1:34
Speaker 1: little bit concerned with. And remember forward looking statements out
1:37
Speaker 1: of the Prime minister there in Japan has been something
1:40
Speaker 1: that we've been looking forward to, and of course she
1:44
Speaker 1: has been playing it pretty tight. So the fact that
1:46
Speaker 1: their version of fed with this direction is probably good
1:50
Speaker 1: for the markets in general. They have reached the end
1:53
Speaker 1: of the road, though it is a trap between rising
1:56
Speaker 1: yields and a fiscal crisis or using the boj to
1:59
Speaker 1: help artificially cap yields. That's going to be the thing
2:01
Speaker 1: that plays out now going forward. And there's some things
2:04
Speaker 1: that they're going to do to make this unwind slowly,
2:09
Speaker 1: so I anticipate that we will see an alternative move
2:13
Speaker 1: on many of these assets, US treasuries mostly, but obviously
2:18
Speaker 1: you see there the sharp fall in the end as
2:20
Speaker 1: a sign of things to come. This is something we're
2:22
Speaker 1: watching very closely. I want to go to this next
2:24
Speaker 1: clip which goes into how more rate hikes are coming.
2:27
Speaker 2: Take a look.
2:28
Speaker 3: We expect that the timinil rage one point five percent
2:32
Speaker 3: will be reached in the mid twenty twenty seven. So
2:35
Speaker 3: this is still a long way forward and as you
2:38
Speaker 3: just mentioned that this is very slow process. What the
2:40
Speaker 3: BOJ is doing is the structural change of the Japanese
2:46
Speaker 3: economy where we have been trapped in the deflation in
2:49
Speaker 3: the last two decades. The inflation rate has always been
2:52
Speaker 3: around zello. But then now we are moving away from
2:56
Speaker 3: deforation trap and the migrating to the new equal rep
3:00
Speaker 3: where the increasing is normal roughly every six months. So
3:03
Speaker 3: next to rate hike, we expect that your too set
3:06
Speaker 3: on twenty six.
3:07
Speaker 1: I don't know if this plays out for Japan. I
3:10
Speaker 1: know the strategy they're trying to work is easing into it,
3:13
Speaker 1: trying to offset how the economy can basically respond to it,
3:17
Speaker 1: especially from the investment crop that comes out and a
3:20
Speaker 1: major investment angle globally of how the Japanese have been
3:25
Speaker 1: basically barring low and arbitraging into other assets. That the
3:29
Speaker 1: thing is going to be interesting to see how this
3:32
Speaker 1: plays out over the next two years. One thing that
3:35
Speaker 1: is not playing out is the US labor market, because
3:37
Speaker 1: that is now suggesting that the economy is in a recession. Wow,
3:41
Speaker 1: they actually agree with me, and I agree. I think, yeah,
3:46
Speaker 1: it's been an intercession for a little bit. We have
3:48
Speaker 1: continued to see unemployment at a problem. It's interesting, though
3:52
Speaker 1: I don't think we're getting the full clarity here coming
3:55
Speaker 1: out of the BLS and definitely not getting it out
3:58
Speaker 1: of the administration. This has been something that has been
4:01
Speaker 1: I think dealing with the American population for quite some time,
4:05
Speaker 1: really about the last ten to twelve months, and I
4:08
Speaker 1: think it's going to extend into.
4:09
Speaker 2: Next year by quite a bit.
4:11
Speaker 1: So this is U six unemployment rate, which includes persons
4:16
Speaker 1: marginally attached to the labor force, and now they're just
4:18
Speaker 1: reporting in that of course is up again. And then
4:22
Speaker 1: also this captures people who want a job and have
4:24
Speaker 1: stopped looking as another factor that goes into it into
4:28
Speaker 1: a recession. And that's the problem that you're dealing with
4:30
Speaker 1: right now, which is this rising curve that is not
4:34
Speaker 1: a good look going forward. So remember two thousand and eight,
4:39
Speaker 1: that's the kind of curve we're looking at right now.
4:42
Speaker 1: And this was not a good day when we had
4:45
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine unemployment numbers
4:48
Speaker 1: in double digit that would be detrimental to the markets
4:52
Speaker 1: in general. Other things that we have to kind of
4:55
Speaker 1: look at is almost never in history of the US
4:58
Speaker 1: economy has consumers s been this depressed.
5:01
Speaker 2: And I would agree with that. I think we are
5:03
Speaker 2: in a position.
5:04
Speaker 1: Right now outside of the one percent, which is driving
5:07
Speaker 1: the S and P five hundred to all time highs,
5:10
Speaker 1: gold to all time highs, most.
5:12
Speaker 2: People, working class people.
5:13
Speaker 1: This is the kind of sentiment that we continue to
5:16
Speaker 1: see coming in from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment NX, and
5:19
Speaker 1: I think this is the thing that I'm most concerned
5:22
Speaker 1: with of how do they unwind this sentiment and get
5:25
Speaker 1: it back into a positive mode with inflation still at risk.
5:30
Speaker 1: I know the inflation numbers that came in this week
5:33
Speaker 1: were supposedly lower, but I'm still not believing that that
5:36
Speaker 1: data just does not rhyme with what we're seeing right
5:39
Speaker 1: now in the real world. The administration, I think and
5:42
Speaker 1: say all they want. The reality is is this is
5:45
Speaker 1: not going to paint out well.
5:46
Speaker 2: Now.
5:46
Speaker 1: Granted you have one or the other that you have
5:49
Speaker 1: to deal with higher inflation or you know, Americans losing
5:52
Speaker 1: their jobs. I think you have to be able to
5:54
Speaker 1: offset the American losing their jobs and dealing with higher
5:57
Speaker 1: inflation versus a little bit of both, which is what
6:02
Speaker 1: power is going to be dealing with right now. Here
6:05
Speaker 1: is Fox trying to twist the numbers.
6:07
Speaker 2: Take a look.
6:09
Speaker 3: That's forty one million homes sold on a four point
6:13
Speaker 3: one three on an annualized basis.
6:14
Speaker 2: That is not strong at all. That's just not there.
6:17
Speaker 2: We are also, let just read on consumer sentiments.
6:20
Speaker 4: What's that number?
6:21
Speaker 5: It surprise drop to fifty two point nine. This is
6:25
Speaker 5: a December number, it's the final number, so it's pretty recent.
6:30
Speaker 5: Consumers are just worried about the price of things and
6:33
Speaker 5: long run inflation expectations as well.
6:36
Speaker 1: But with both of these dull numbers, the market seems
6:39
Speaker 1: to like it, perhaps implying that we'll get more fed
6:41
Speaker 1: rate cuts.
6:42
Speaker 5: Actually the market went up a little bit. All the
6:43
Speaker 5: pieces of information being slightly weaker than the weakness I think.
6:46
Speaker 3: Is attractive bad news is actually good news for the market.
6:49
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe that's what we've got, all right, guys.
6:52
Speaker 1: This is the thing that I always say, and that
6:55
Speaker 1: is it is the haves versus the have nots. And
6:59
Speaker 1: that's what you're dealing with right now. And I think
7:01
Speaker 1: most people in the crypto sphere, unfortunately, are there because
7:06
Speaker 1: in some way or another you've been in a have
7:09
Speaker 1: not position and you're trying to make it to the
7:11
Speaker 1: next level. The problem is that the halves have continued
7:15
Speaker 1: to drive this market on the S and P five
7:17
Speaker 1: hundred more and more up. I mean, we continue to
7:20
Speaker 1: see all time highs. It's up again. I'll talk about
7:22
Speaker 1: that in a second. But yet crypto is looking like this.
7:25
Speaker 1: This is where we are right now. The crypto market
7:27
Speaker 1: at a twenty one past the four year cycle window.
7:31
Speaker 1: If you want to call back and say, okay, the
7:33
Speaker 1: one twenty six was the four year top, Okay, then
7:36
Speaker 1: we definitely are in a position where we did not
7:39
Speaker 1: had one of the most lackluster crypto bull runs ever
7:43
Speaker 1: in the history of crypto, and I think this is
7:45
Speaker 1: something that also plays out, is that we may not
7:47
Speaker 1: be seeing crypto bull runs again. And here's why, you're
7:51
Speaker 1: dealing with an institutional model now that is much more patient,
7:58
Speaker 1: They're much more calculated, and they're fully willing to dump
8:02
Speaker 1: and buy based on retail's interaction with the market. And
8:07
Speaker 1: the problem is that most of retail, it's been in
8:10
Speaker 1: crypto for the last ten years, five years, three years,
8:13
Speaker 1: whatever range you've jumped in, you've been looking at historical engagement,
8:18
Speaker 1: not looking forward to treat it like a traditional Wall
8:21
Speaker 1: Street market, which is what they're looking at. And I
8:24
Speaker 1: think that is the issue right now because it goes
8:26
Speaker 1: back to the problem with the haves and the have
8:29
Speaker 1: not so much so that IBIT, this is the mighty
8:33
Speaker 1: Ibit is the only ETF on the twenty twenty five
8:37
Speaker 1: flow leader board with a negative return for the year.
8:40
Speaker 2: This is not good.
8:42
Speaker 1: It does not look good for bitcoin, and it definitely
8:44
Speaker 1: does not look good for crypto in general, because it's
8:48
Speaker 1: showing that crypto cannot hold its weight in the ETF
8:52
Speaker 1: crowd when it comes to ranking in to the top ten,
8:55
Speaker 1: top five.
8:56
Speaker 2: Look at some of these returns.
8:57
Speaker 1: I mean you're seeing twenty eight percent on iEMG, You've
9:00
Speaker 1: got thirty plus percent on VXUS. These are the kind
9:04
Speaker 1: of opportunities that are out there, sixty four percent on IAU.
9:08
Speaker 1: So those are the kind of things that we are
9:10
Speaker 1: faced with right now. How Wall Street is playing into
9:14
Speaker 1: this now, many people will say, well, Paul, this is
9:16
Speaker 1: the Wall Street natives pushing this market down so they
9:20
Speaker 1: can enter in, And I get that, but you know,
9:22
Speaker 1: it's buckets. In my opinion, this is just traditional market
9:27
Speaker 1: strategy that's always been around in Wall Street for the
9:29
Speaker 1: last forty years.
9:30
Speaker 2: It's not changing. Crypto is just a new toy.
9:32
Speaker 1: It's just a new stock to them, a new play
9:35
Speaker 1: into the market, and I think you have to change
9:37
Speaker 1: the way that you are playing this market now. You
9:40
Speaker 1: cannot look at this historically like what we have seen
9:44
Speaker 1: in the past.
9:45
Speaker 2: Now.
9:45
Speaker 1: I've been a fan of Mike Alfred, and I won't
9:48
Speaker 1: say I'm not a fan of him, but I don't
9:50
Speaker 1: think he has played this right in the sense that
9:53
Speaker 1: he is kind of a permeable when it comes to bitcoin.
9:56
Speaker 1: But his statement here bears had numerous opportunities to push
10:00
Speaker 1: bitcoins sustainably below eighty six. I think it probably will
10:04
Speaker 1: continue to see that they've had the cycle narrative and
10:07
Speaker 1: a chart squiggler brigade on their side, and then they
10:11
Speaker 1: also try to scare folks with the things like the
10:13
Speaker 1: Japanese in carry trade. I don't know that that was
10:15
Speaker 1: a big scare because the S and P barely blinked
10:19
Speaker 1: at that, and that's where liquidity is going to be
10:21
Speaker 1: coming from. So I'm not necessarily on the same camp
10:24
Speaker 1: with this.
10:24
Speaker 6: Now.
10:24
Speaker 1: Do I think that Bitcoin can catch a wind under it?
10:27
Speaker 2: Yeah, pretty much.
10:28
Speaker 1: It will depend on how Wall Street wants to do it.
10:30
Speaker 1: It's going to be the institutions that drive the narrative
10:33
Speaker 1: around it. The one area that concerns me the most
10:36
Speaker 1: is going to be all coins, because I don't know
10:39
Speaker 1: that at all coin outside the blue chips are going
10:42
Speaker 1: to get underneath this unless they are fighting for the
10:46
Speaker 1: trenches and only in the trenches. That's a different game
10:50
Speaker 1: all in itself. But expecting retail to come in like
10:53
Speaker 1: what we've seen in the past, I don't know that
10:55
Speaker 1: that's going to be going on.
10:56
Speaker 2: A couple of things to consider here.
10:58
Speaker 1: Coinbase did all their announcements, they're very cautiously optimistic right
11:02
Speaker 1: now for twenty twenty six. Tom le he's very optimistic
11:04
Speaker 1: for twenty twenty six. But again, look at the headline
11:08
Speaker 1: right there. Crypto near's institutional inflection point. That's all you
11:13
Speaker 1: need to know to play this market. Follow the institution.
11:16
Speaker 1: If you've been following stocks for the last five ten years,
11:20
Speaker 1: you understand this game. And I think that's the disadvantage
11:25
Speaker 1: that unfortunately crypto traders are dealing with. They have to
11:28
Speaker 1: understand how oh yeah, they have to understand how these
11:31
Speaker 1: markets move.
11:32
Speaker 2: You can call it what you want to call it.
11:33
Speaker 2: Many people will use the N.
11:34
Speaker 1: Word, But if you understand it, you know how to
11:37
Speaker 1: play this. This is going to be a game of
11:39
Speaker 1: trading now, and that is getting your long end getting
11:43
Speaker 1: your short end, and that's the way you're going to
11:46
Speaker 1: be able to make gains. I don't necessarily like leverage,
11:48
Speaker 1: but this is probably going to be the way that
11:50
Speaker 1: people do it as long as you don't overleverage. If
11:53
Speaker 1: you get in there on the risk level, maybe that's
11:55
Speaker 1: the route. The way that this is winning for stocks
11:58
Speaker 1: because it has been doing this for thirty years and
12:00
Speaker 1: the US stocks extend gains continuously. Dunking on the market
12:05
Speaker 1: right now is a NAZAK one hundred, up another percent
12:08
Speaker 1: and hitting another all time high s and P five
12:11
Speaker 1: hundred right now sixty eight twenty two. I mean, come on, guys,
12:14
Speaker 1: this is just outlandish to see this kind of performance
12:17
Speaker 1: when inflation out of control, jobs on.
12:22
Speaker 2: A spiral up.
12:23
Speaker 1: Basically, they're trying to get the last of the Turkey
12:26
Speaker 1: leg that's still on the table, is what I'm getting
12:28
Speaker 1: at here. And this is how the market is playing out.
12:31
Speaker 4: Now.
12:31
Speaker 2: There's a couple of analysts.
12:32
Speaker 1: That still believe this is very, very bullish for the market.
12:36
Speaker 6: Listen in, I'm really surprised that the end is continued
12:39
Speaker 6: to weaken here. And I say that in context that
12:41
Speaker 6: as you know, well, I'm a structural yen back, but
12:44
Speaker 6: I actually thought that this press conference in context that
12:46
Speaker 6: Governor Awada is always a very cautious individual, you know,
12:50
Speaker 6: I didn't know, I don't know what people were expecting.
12:52
Speaker 6: He was never going to be more hawkish than this.
12:54
Speaker 6: Sure he wasn't particularly hawkish, but I thought he was
12:56
Speaker 6: better as hawkish as he was ever going to be.
12:58
Speaker 3: To the market overreact to US CPU high print yesterday,
13:02
Speaker 3: A lot of skepticism from economists, So do you trust
13:05
Speaker 3: this drop in inflation.
13:09
Speaker 2: Yeah.
13:09
Speaker 6: I mean what's interesting is how quickly markets did this
13:14
Speaker 6: kind of dismiss it. So markets, the yields did not
13:17
Speaker 6: react to much.
13:17
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm going to ask a really dangerous question now, Mark,
13:20
Speaker 1: is are we done with twenty twenty five?
13:22
Speaker 2: Can we can we all take some time off and
13:23
Speaker 2: come back in twenty twenty six.
13:28
Speaker 6: No, But look, I think this is a market where
13:30
Speaker 6: the price action suggests that, you know, the technicals are
13:34
Speaker 6: a little bit fragile. The market is very bullishly positioned,
13:37
Speaker 6: and I think, you know, structurally, as we've discussed a lot,
13:40
Speaker 6: I expect stock markets to make fresh record highs in
13:43
Speaker 6: twenty twenty six easily. I think it'll be a good
13:46
Speaker 6: first half of the year because of the structural tail winds.
13:49
Speaker 6: But I think there are some problems there in terms
13:51
Speaker 6: of risk version side that have not played out. And
13:53
Speaker 6: again I still draw attention to the fact that that
13:55
Speaker 6: the digitalst treasury companies continue to trade weaker and weaker.
13:59
Speaker 6: That spreads into the cryptosector, that spreads into retail sentiment
14:02
Speaker 6: at a time they're getting squeezed by Christmas, and that
14:05
Speaker 6: kind of ways in the favored AI names, the mean
14:07
Speaker 6: names and that's why things be problematic for oother couple
14:09
Speaker 6: of weeks.
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Speaker 2: All right, so there you have it.
16:20
Speaker 1: I'm just going to show you guys, this is the
16:22
Speaker 1: S and P five hundred versus Bitcoin. Just the charts, Okay,
16:25
Speaker 1: one on the left, S and P five hundred one
16:28
Speaker 1: on the right.
16:28
Speaker 2: Bitcoin. I mean you begin to.
16:31
Speaker 1: Understand why we are seeing much more activity right now
16:35
Speaker 1: because the liquidity hasn't moved into risk assets yet. That
16:39
Speaker 1: is the factor as to how the strategy and the
16:42
Speaker 1: psychographic of institutional capital is going to move into this market.
16:46
Speaker 1: That is all you have to really consider right now.
16:49
Speaker 1: With Bitcoin, of course holding not badly, you know, considering
16:53
Speaker 1: where we have, but it is definitely in a sideways chop,
16:56
Speaker 1: all right. So just look at the last thirty days
16:58
Speaker 1: if you kind of understand where the S ANDP we
17:00
Speaker 1: did have that little bit of a clip down in October,
17:03
Speaker 1: but right back into it again, holding back up maybe
17:07
Speaker 1: to where we could see that all time high again
17:09
Speaker 1: on the S and P five hundred starting to brew
17:11
Speaker 1: in again. With bitcoin, it has been a downward spiral,
17:15
Speaker 1: which is why you saw the IBIT numbers coming in
17:17
Speaker 1: like you did.
17:19
Speaker 2: Right there.
17:19
Speaker 1: One other thing that could change things a little bit
17:22
Speaker 1: is the reaction to tariffs, and right now there is
17:24
Speaker 1: a seventy two percent chance on the Supreme Court ruling
17:27
Speaker 1: against President Trump's tariffs, and how this unwinds. I have
17:31
Speaker 1: no idea of what all those tariffs that were collected,
17:34
Speaker 1: how that would even work in terms. I'm assuming that
17:38
Speaker 1: if the company or the country collected during that period
17:41
Speaker 1: of time, do they just keep it? I don't know.
17:44
Speaker 1: We'll find out. What I do know, it's going to
17:46
Speaker 1: get messy. We're probably going to see a lot of
17:49
Speaker 1: lawfair in the coming months over all of this. This
17:53
Speaker 1: is the other thing that's going to play into this,
17:54
Speaker 1: because this of course plays into the issue that we
17:57
Speaker 1: all are dealing with, and that is, do we see
17:59
Speaker 1: can continuation of interest rate cuts from the Fed? Well,
18:03
Speaker 1: Trump is saying I'm gonna announce it next Federal Reserve chairman,
18:06
Speaker 1: someone who he believes will lower interest rates by a lot.
18:11
Speaker 2: A lot.
18:12
Speaker 1: We'll see if a lot means, you know, down to
18:15
Speaker 1: one percent. Again, if that's the case, hyperinflation on its
18:18
Speaker 1: way running rampant, you know, unemployment, dogs and cats living together.
18:24
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just going to be mayhem out there.
18:27
Speaker 1: But don't worry, because when you have mayhem like that,
18:30
Speaker 1: well you need mayhem in other ways.
18:33
Speaker 2: Take a look.
18:34
Speaker 6: In the fall, we will host the first ever Patriot Games.
18:38
Speaker 6: One young man and one young woman from each state
18:41
Speaker 6: and territory.
18:42
Speaker 4: One young man and woman to fight to the death
18:46
Speaker 4: in a pageant of corner, courage and sacrifice. This is
18:50
Speaker 4: how we safeguard our future.
18:53
Speaker 2: I just love it, Ai Yi man.
18:58
Speaker 1: We have devaulved into a species I'm not sure should
19:02
Speaker 1: be credible to walk among this beautiful earth.
19:05
Speaker 2: But there you go.
19:06
Speaker 1: Patriot Games here they come coming to a DC theater
19:09
Speaker 1: near you. Make sure and do one thing, Guys, get
19:12
Speaker 1: into a group that cares about how you can go forward.
19:15
Speaker 1: The way you do that is join the Baron Market Edge.
19:17
Speaker 1: Super easy and it's free. All you have to do
19:19
Speaker 1: is hit the link down below and hit me out
19:21
Speaker 1: there on x at Paul Baron. We'll catch you next
19:23
Speaker 1: time right here on The Paul Baron Show.