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College Football Week 1 BEST BETS | The Worst Week · Toadstool Sports

0:16
Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
0:19
Speaker 1: in your chest.
0:20
Speaker 2: Black coffee on the felt, man.
0:23
Speaker 1: You look like a mess. Three-team parlay turned to dust
0:27
Speaker 1: in your hand. Now you stare at the chips like
0:31
Speaker 1: they made you this man. But don't you go quiet,
0:35
Speaker 1: don't you fade from the floor. Your name still means
0:38
Speaker 1: something to somebody for sure.
0:41
Speaker 2: Put the glass down, baby.
0:44
Speaker 3: Look at me now.
0:49
Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on Not.
0:53
Speaker 4: Tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull
1:03
Speaker 4: you out That fella fights hard But he don't get
1:12
Speaker 4: the crown Hold on. Hold on.
1:17
Speaker 1: Stay with me now.
1:27
Speaker 2: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports.
1:31
Speaker 2: This is going to be college football week one. We're
1:34
Speaker 2: one and one to start the college football season. This
1:37
Speaker 2: is going to focus on the Saturday games. Week one.
1:41
Speaker 2: It's not my strong suit. Let's just put it that
1:43
Speaker 2: way because you have no idea who these teams really
1:47
Speaker 2: are yet, so it's a little bit unpredictable. I usually
1:50
Speaker 2: try to use, like, did teams play in week zero
1:53
Speaker 2: and try to see if that can give me, like,
1:55
Speaker 2: a situational setup that I like, things like that. And
1:59
Speaker 2: I tread lightly. Let's just put it that way. I'm
2:02
Speaker 2: going to give out two plays here. I have no
2:05
Speaker 2: idea how this is going to go. I think they're
2:07
Speaker 2: both the right size, so we will see. I don't
2:09
Speaker 2: really do much with totals. I'm going to talk about
2:12
Speaker 2: the big games, TV games, stick to FBS, ranked teams, BS.
2:18
Speaker 2: You guys know how it goes. Last year, I did
2:20
Speaker 2: like all the ranked games first. I think I'm just
2:22
Speaker 2: going to go chronologically this time. Week one, there aren't
2:25
Speaker 2: as many games that I talk about because there are
2:28
Speaker 2: a lot of FCS teams playing the FBS teams. I just,
2:31
Speaker 2: I skip them. There are a lot of like giant
2:33
Speaker 2: spreads anyway. And I'm just like, yeah, whatever. I mean,
2:35
Speaker 2: a lot of these games are fairly unplayable, so. And
2:39
Speaker 2: then we will have games on actually Sunday and Monday
2:41
Speaker 2: this week as well. So I think I'm going to
2:43
Speaker 2: leave those for those days, Sunday and Monday. This is
2:46
Speaker 2: just going to be for the big Saturday card here.
2:50
Speaker 2: I guess let's get into it, man. I mean, I'm
2:53
Speaker 2: not going to even know what I'm talking about for
2:55
Speaker 2: the most part here. You really have to kind of
2:57
Speaker 2: figure out how many returning starters there are in each team,
3:01
Speaker 2: what these teams did as far as reloading, coaching changes,
3:06
Speaker 2: et cetera. There's a lot to really get into here.
3:10
Speaker 2: I'll talk about all the ranked teams, even though a
3:12
Speaker 2: lot of these teams are massive favorites, though. So number six, Indiana,
3:15
Speaker 2: first game up here on Fox, 12 p.m. Eastern. They're
3:19
Speaker 2: playing North Texas. I wouldn't really want anything to do
3:23
Speaker 2: with North Texas here. Indiana's a massive favorite. They're more
3:25
Speaker 2: than a 40-point favorite here. Indiana's, of course, coming off
3:30
Speaker 2: winning the championship, so Indiana just inherently is going to
3:33
Speaker 2: kind of be overvalued I don't really think you should
3:35
Speaker 2: lay 40.5 points with them either, but I don't really
3:38
Speaker 2: want to have anything going on with North Texas either.
3:42
Speaker 2: In North Texas, they're going through a lot of changes.
3:45
Speaker 2: They have a coaching change. Their coach left and went
3:50
Speaker 2: to Oklahoma State. They're picking up Neil Brown, who was
3:53
Speaker 2: an assistant from Texas. He's coming in to North Texas now.
3:59
Speaker 2: There's this massive turnover here. They lost their quarterback, Mestemaker,
4:02
Speaker 2: who went with their coach over to Oklahoma State. So
4:06
Speaker 2: North Texas definitely going to be in kind of a
4:08
Speaker 2: rebuild mode here. I wouldn't expect much from them. They
4:11
Speaker 2: literally have no returning starters as well. Indiana does have
4:15
Speaker 2: a bunch. Indiana has 12. The majority of Indiana's defense
4:19
Speaker 2: is coming back, so their defense is probably going to
4:22
Speaker 2: be good right away. Not so sure about their offense.
4:25
Speaker 2: A lot of turnover on the offense. Josh Hoover will
4:28
Speaker 2: be coming in as their quarterback from TCU, and it
4:31
Speaker 2: remains to be seen whether or not he can handle
4:33
Speaker 2: The leap in intensity of defense he's going to have
4:36
Speaker 2: to face in the Big Ten as opposed to what
4:38
Speaker 2: he was facing in the Big 12. I don't have
4:41
Speaker 2: a whole lot else to say about this game. I mean,
4:42
Speaker 2: there's not really much to say about it. Hold on.
4:48
Speaker 2: North Texas. Indiana. It looks like they're getting some of
4:50
Speaker 2: the money. I hate how this website. Dude, oh, my God. Yeah,
4:58
Speaker 2: there it goes. Indiana has 66% of tickets, 69% of
5:01
Speaker 2: the cash on them. They've kind of just stayed around
5:04
Speaker 2: a 40-40 and a half point favorite here. Pretty much
5:08
Speaker 2: got nothing else to say about it. I don't really
5:10
Speaker 2: have much on this game at all, but that's just
5:13
Speaker 2: the landscape that we have going on there. Generally, I
5:15
Speaker 2: would say I don't love going against teams in their
5:18
Speaker 2: home openers either, although I am going to be doing
5:20
Speaker 2: that in at least one of these games. I think
5:23
Speaker 2: maybe both of the plays I have, that is the case.
5:26
Speaker 2: It's just the way that it sets up, though. ABC
5:29
Speaker 2: Alabama ranked number 13 against East Carolina. Alabama has a
5:34
Speaker 2: new quarterback that they're going to be breaking in. They
5:38
Speaker 2: have seven returning starters, but I believe it is Kalen
5:41
Speaker 2: DeBoer's third season with them now, if I'm not mistaken,
5:44
Speaker 2: and usually that's their coach. Usually a coach in his
5:47
Speaker 2: third year with the new program, he's kind of got
5:50
Speaker 2: his system all set. He's got all his guys there,
5:54
Speaker 2: and they usually take a pretty good leap forward. So
5:56
Speaker 2: I do think Alabama's going to be very good this year,
5:58
Speaker 2: and of course you know they They just reload every year,
6:01
Speaker 2: although they do only have seven returning starters here. I'm
6:04
Speaker 2: really not expecting much out of East Carolina, though. It's
6:06
Speaker 2: basically not returning anybody. They're returning three guys. Their quarterback,
6:10
Speaker 2: I forget where he went. I think he took a
6:13
Speaker 2: step up to one of these other teams. I can't
6:14
Speaker 2: even remember, to be honest. I don't think there's a
6:17
Speaker 2: coaching change here for East Carolina, but I know that
6:20
Speaker 2: there are professionals that like Alabama in this one. And Alabama,
6:24
Speaker 2: they look public, 88% of the tickets, 90% of the
6:25
Speaker 2: cash on them. But the money... has come in on them.
6:29
Speaker 2: If you wanted Alabama, I don't know, I would say
6:32
Speaker 2: you kind of missed the boat on it. They're at
6:34
Speaker 2: minus 25 and a half. Or they opened 25 and
6:37
Speaker 2: a half. They're up to 28 and a half now.
6:39
Speaker 2: So if you wanted Alabama, I would say you would
6:42
Speaker 2: want to get it below that four touchdown threshold at
6:45
Speaker 2: the very least. You might be able to find like
6:47
Speaker 2: a 28 out there to get right on that number.
6:51
Speaker 2: You could do like an Alabama first half play or something,
6:54
Speaker 2: but you're going to be looking at a more annoying
6:56
Speaker 2: number in the first half. Like it's going to be
6:58
Speaker 2: More than half of that number, because as I talk
7:01
Speaker 2: about with these teams that are big favorites, there is
7:04
Speaker 2: the chance that if they have a big lead, they're
7:06
Speaker 2: going to start putting backups in and stuff. Although Alabama
7:10
Speaker 2: might not.
7:10
Speaker 3: I don't know.
7:11
Speaker 2: I mean, the coaches, you have to kind of know
7:13
Speaker 2: what the coach's tendency is to and whether or not
7:15
Speaker 2: they're going to be really motivated to just crush their
7:18
Speaker 2: opponent or not. You know what I mean? I mean,
7:20
Speaker 2: Alabama might have more of a tendency to actually try
7:22
Speaker 2: to do that, though, to run up the score. So,
7:26
Speaker 2: I don't know. But I don't have a whole lot
7:27
Speaker 2: on that game. But I'd probably slightly lean Alabama, minus
7:31
Speaker 2: the points in that one. But it is a little
7:33
Speaker 2: bit out of control at 28. What's up? Hey, Woods.
7:36
Speaker 2: What's up, man? Thanks for hanging out. All right. Oregon State, Houston.
7:42
Speaker 2: Houston's ranked 23rd right now, which is interesting. Houston's got
7:45
Speaker 2: a lot of returning starters. This game's going to be
7:47
Speaker 2: on ESPN. Houston, you know, they were a nice surprise
7:51
Speaker 2: last year, and they're bringing back a lot of their
7:52
Speaker 2: guys from last year. They have 12 returning starters, six
7:56
Speaker 2: on offense and six on defense, including their quarterback Wegman,
8:00
Speaker 2: who was pretty good, I believe, last year, if I
8:02
Speaker 2: remember correctly. I think they did switch quarterbacks last year,
8:05
Speaker 2: but they were more about their defense. Houston succeeded because
8:09
Speaker 2: they're in a league, the Big 12, a conference that
8:11
Speaker 2: doesn't really focus on defense, and Houston emerged as one
8:14
Speaker 2: of the better defenses in that conference. So they're pretty good.
8:18
Speaker 2: And if you remember last year, though, Houston went out
8:21
Speaker 2: to Oregon State and played Oregon State last year, and
8:24
Speaker 2: it was this weird spot. I think it was like
8:26
Speaker 2: a Friday night game, a late game, and I gave
8:29
Speaker 2: out a play on the show on Oregon State as
8:31
Speaker 2: a double-digit underdog in that one, and I believe they
8:34
Speaker 2: won outright. It was a weird spot for Houston, very
8:37
Speaker 2: weird travel spot. I really liked the spot for Oregon
8:40
Speaker 2: State in that one, and we got that right. But
8:42
Speaker 2: does that mean now this is going to be a
8:43
Speaker 2: revenge spot for Houston? Are they going to remember that? Maybe,
8:47
Speaker 2: because a lot of these guys are coming back, so
8:48
Speaker 2: they might actually have more focus on Oregon State than
8:52
Speaker 2: they did last year because all of a sudden now, oh, shit, yeah,
8:57
Speaker 2: we lost to these guys last year, right? So Houston
9:00
Speaker 2: might have more focus. Oregon State is bringing back 10
9:03
Speaker 2: starters themselves, including Malik Murphy, their quarterback, who I believe
9:07
Speaker 2: was on Duke before he went to Oregon State. So
9:10
Speaker 2: he's definitely got experience. And I don't love laying points
9:14
Speaker 2: with teams like Houston that are more defense-oriented. I mean,
9:17
Speaker 2: this game is definitely a pass for me. The money
9:19
Speaker 2: is kind of indicating against Houston here, which, of course,
9:23
Speaker 2: whenever I get rid of that... Dude, it is so
9:26
Speaker 2: much easier to use pregame's fucking screen, and, of course,
9:30
Speaker 2: their screen is never going to fucking work again, so
9:33
Speaker 2: I'm using wager talks, but this fucking pop-up keeps coming
9:38
Speaker 2: up for the frequently asked questions, and then it just
9:41
Speaker 2: shifts the whole screen. Houston, 71% of tickets, 67% of
9:45
Speaker 2: the cash on them. They already moved up from an 18.5-point
9:47
Speaker 2: favorite to a 20.5 or 21-point favorite. I mean, I
9:53
Speaker 2: kind of like Houston in this one, just based on
9:57
Speaker 2: them having more returning starters and based on what they
9:59
Speaker 2: did last year. um like the fact that they lost
10:03
Speaker 2: at Oregon State last year to me seems like they
10:05
Speaker 2: would have more focus here but I got nothing on
10:09
Speaker 2: this man and of course the one thing you do
10:11
Speaker 2: have to be aware of those these teams are Who
10:14
Speaker 2: are they playing next? You know what I mean? Some
10:15
Speaker 2: of these teams might have a big game coming up next.
10:18
Speaker 2: Alabama does start SEC play next week against Kentucky. there
10:23
Speaker 2: is the chance that Alabama does actually start packing their
10:27
Speaker 2: starters in early, you know what I mean, to get
10:28
Speaker 2: ready for this SEC game coming up next. So there
10:31
Speaker 2: is a chance Alabama does actually take their foot off
10:34
Speaker 2: the gas in their game. Houston does not have a
10:37
Speaker 2: big game up next. So yeah, I mean, I think
10:40
Speaker 2: I would slightly lean towards Houston in that one, but
10:42
Speaker 2: I also don't love laying points with a more defense-oriented team.
10:46
Speaker 2: It's not a huge total in that one, around 50,
10:47
Speaker 2: but Dude, week two is so much easier. Once we
10:51
Speaker 2: get a week under our belt and we get situations arising,
10:54
Speaker 2: it's going to be so much easier to make plays,
10:56
Speaker 2: make picks here. You can tell me if you want
11:00
Speaker 2: me to talk about any game that I'm not talking about,
11:02
Speaker 2: but we do have West Virginia's on TNT against Coastal Carolina.
11:08
Speaker 2: Coastal Carolina, I mean, I think they're in a total
11:11
Speaker 2: rebuild here. So I don't know. I mean, they have
11:14
Speaker 2: five returning starters. I don't think I'd want anything to
11:16
Speaker 2: do with them here. West Virginia, I mean, you're not
11:19
Speaker 2: going to really get any value on them. They are
11:21
Speaker 2: bringing back their quarterback, at least Fox, but they're having
11:24
Speaker 2: a major turnover as well, even though I believe this
11:27
Speaker 2: is year two or three now for Rich Rod. I'm
11:30
Speaker 2: pretty sure Rich Rodriguez is there. It might be his
11:32
Speaker 2: second year, but it looks like they're bringing in all
11:34
Speaker 2: new guys here. So I would not want to lay
11:37
Speaker 2: three touchdowns with West Virginia either, even though they should
11:40
Speaker 2: win this game. Money seems like it's slightly leaning that way.
11:44
Speaker 2: They moved up from a 17-and-a-half-point favorite all the way
11:46
Speaker 2: up to 21. So again, I think if you liked
11:49
Speaker 2: West Virginia, you kind of missed the best number on this,
11:51
Speaker 2: although anything below 21 I think would still be fine, really,
11:57
Speaker 2: like in that range where it's below three touchdowns. And
11:59
Speaker 2: it wouldn't have crossed through any of those other key numbers,
12:02
Speaker 2: but it's like a lot of the books are right
12:03
Speaker 2: on that 21. 80% of tickets, 85% of the cash
12:06
Speaker 2: on West Virginia. I got nothing, although I think Coastal
12:11
Speaker 2: is going to be ass this year, though, so I
12:14
Speaker 2: don't know, man. But I don't think I'd really want
12:16
Speaker 2: to lay that many points with West Virginia either, although
12:19
Speaker 2: you know how it is in Morgantown. It's going to
12:20
Speaker 2: be a party, whatever, although a noontime game that the
12:25
Speaker 2: crowd isn't going to get drunk enough. Ohio at Nebraska
12:29
Speaker 2: is on Fox Sports 1, so this is a TV game.
12:32
Speaker 2: Nebraska will be breaking in a new QB here, which is...
12:36
Speaker 2: I'm trying to remember who it is. Anthony Calandria, who
12:39
Speaker 2: was on UNLV, and he's been around. I forget where
12:43
Speaker 2: he was before that. I think he was UNLV's starter
12:46
Speaker 2: last year, so Nebraska will have him now. So they
12:49
Speaker 2: do have an experienced quarterback, even though they are replacing
12:52
Speaker 2: their quarterback. Nebraska does have 12 returning starters, though, so
12:56
Speaker 2: they do have a decent amount of continuity here. Ohio...
13:00
Speaker 2: Out of the MAAC, they only have six guys returning.
13:03
Speaker 2: I don't think I'd want anything to do with Ohio
13:04
Speaker 2: in this one. But again, it's another game that's just like,
13:08
Speaker 2: what are we doing here, really? The money is actually
13:10
Speaker 2: kind of indicating on Ohio. 68% of tickets, 63% of
13:13
Speaker 2: the cash on Nebraska. Nebraska, minus 23.5 here, so they
13:14
Speaker 2: are below that 24. But it's also a really low total, 46.5.
13:25
Speaker 2: You know me. I do not like laying points like that.
13:28
Speaker 2: I know we got... I'm not going to say we
13:31
Speaker 2: got fucked. It was the wrong play tonight with that
13:33
Speaker 2: Stanford loss. I'm pissed. I thought it was the right handicap,
13:36
Speaker 2: but they fucking sucked ass. I don't know what else
13:39
Speaker 2: to tell you. Miami's offense was better than I thought.
13:41
Speaker 2: Stanford's offense got nothing going. Whatever. But generally, as a rule,
13:47
Speaker 2: I'm not going to lay 23.5 points with a 46.5
13:49
Speaker 2: point spread.
13:49
Speaker 3: There's just.
13:53
Speaker 2: Or excuse me, with a 46.5 point total, excuse me,
13:55
Speaker 2: this is not enough value per point, in my opinion,
13:58
Speaker 2: to really do that, unless you have a really good
14:00
Speaker 2: reason to do so. I wouldn't want Ohio, though. Let
14:04
Speaker 2: me tell you that. The money is coming in on
14:05
Speaker 2: the under. I mean, I don't know, man. I mean,
14:08
Speaker 2: you could go with Ohio to go under their team
14:12
Speaker 2: total or something like that, something really crazy. I don't know.
14:16
Speaker 2: I don't really do totals, as you know, but Yeah,
14:19
Speaker 2: that's a stay away. I've heard some opinions on Nebraska
14:23
Speaker 2: first half in that one, which again is some of
14:27
Speaker 2: these teams that are big favorites, that is one way
14:30
Speaker 2: to look at it is to play them in the
14:31
Speaker 2: first half because they might start resting their starters if
14:34
Speaker 2: they have a big lead at the end. You don't
14:35
Speaker 2: want to really deal with that potential backdoor underdog cover.
14:39
Speaker 2: I still don't know about that. Is Nebraska going to
14:43
Speaker 2: fully hit the ground running with that new quarterback there
14:46
Speaker 2: with Calandra. He's got to come in and like learn
14:48
Speaker 2: the system, although he is experienced, but I got pretty
14:51
Speaker 2: much nothing there as well. Uh, as far as what
14:55
Speaker 2: does Nebraska have up next? Like nothing. They're playing another
14:57
Speaker 2: Mac team next Bowling Green. So whatever. And West Virginia is, uh, yeah,
15:03
Speaker 2: they don't have anything big up next either.
15:05
Speaker 5: So, all right.
15:06
Speaker 2: Um, What else do we got here? I know I'm
15:08
Speaker 2: skipping some TV games, so I'm skipping the FBS-FCS. All right,
15:12
Speaker 2: we do have a noontime play here, and it is
15:14
Speaker 2: on TV on ESPNU in this Battle of Virginia. Let's
15:19
Speaker 2: do it. Let's make a play on this, and we
15:21
Speaker 2: are going to play against a team in their home opener,
15:24
Speaker 2: but that's because I think they're overvalued. We're going to
15:27
Speaker 2: take Liberty plus six and a half. I think Liberty
15:30
Speaker 2: has a decent chance to win their conference. This is
15:32
Speaker 2: an out-of-conference game, and I didn't talk about the Sun
15:35
Speaker 2: Belt in my preview, which is where James Madison is.
15:38
Speaker 2: I think there just weren't odds up on the conference
15:40
Speaker 2: or whatever. I apologize. I totally neglected the Sun Belt,
15:44
Speaker 2: so I apologize. But this is interesting. First of all,
15:48
Speaker 2: the market read is kind of telling you something here.
15:51
Speaker 2: James Madison opened 6, 6.5, and this line basically never
15:55
Speaker 2: hit 7. It's just been 6.5, 6 all week. So
15:57
Speaker 2: it's like... What's the deal here, right? That's below that
16:03
Speaker 2: key number of seven. It's below a touchdown. It's almost
16:07
Speaker 2: like the books want you to play James Madison at
16:09
Speaker 2: below a touchdown. Everybody knows, oh yeah, James Madison, they
16:12
Speaker 2: were awesome last year. It was kind of in the
16:15
Speaker 2: wake of Kurt Cignetti, who was there before he went
16:18
Speaker 2: to Indiana. They still had some of those guys there.
16:21
Speaker 2: James Madison was awesome again last year. They made the
16:23
Speaker 2: college football playoff. Although, of course, they got absolutely destroyed,
16:27
Speaker 2: I believe, if I remember correctly, by Oregon or something
16:30
Speaker 2: in that game. But James Madison played really well last year.
16:33
Speaker 2: They made the playoffs, so everybody's high on them. 69%
16:35
Speaker 2: of the tickets on James Madison, but 60% of the
16:38
Speaker 2: cash on Liberty.
16:39
Speaker 3: Liberty.
16:40
Speaker 2: should have been better than they were last year. And
16:42
Speaker 2: they severely underperformed. I think they were supposed to win
16:45
Speaker 2: their conference last year, or at least be in the
16:47
Speaker 2: mix for it. And they were kind of still hanging
16:49
Speaker 2: around there, but they just lost too many close games
16:52
Speaker 2: last year. So I've heard some professional opinions, not liking
16:56
Speaker 2: Liberty this year, but I kind of liked them to
16:57
Speaker 2: win their conference. And I liked them in this game.
17:01
Speaker 2: And I know it's, you know, the James Madison home
17:03
Speaker 2: game or whatever, but Liberty is going to have fans
17:05
Speaker 2: show up at this game. I mean, this is An
17:07
Speaker 2: in-state rivalry game, you know what I mean? So there
17:10
Speaker 2: are going to be plenty of Liberty fans there. This
17:12
Speaker 2: is a Virginia versus Virginia game. So it's not like...
17:17
Speaker 2: Liberty's not going to travel to this. They will. The
17:22
Speaker 2: home advantage might be a little bit less for James
17:24
Speaker 2: Madison here than normally it would be. James Madison also,
17:28
Speaker 2: they're in a complete overhaul mode. They got a new
17:30
Speaker 2: coach because their coach left and I believe he went
17:32
Speaker 2: to UCLA, if I'm not mistaken, which I'll try to
17:35
Speaker 2: remember that when I talk about the late night games here.
17:39
Speaker 2: They only have three returning starters, so Liberty is going
17:43
Speaker 2: to be more likely to hit the ground running. Liberty
17:46
Speaker 2: is returning 10 starters, including more than half of their offense,
17:50
Speaker 2: including their quarterback, Vasco. So I think Liberty is going
17:53
Speaker 2: to be much more likely to be able to do this.
17:55
Speaker 2: I believe Liberty has the same coach as well. James
17:58
Speaker 2: Madison brought in Billy Napier, who kind of failed at Florida,
18:02
Speaker 2: to be honest. Is that a good hire for JMU?
18:06
Speaker 2: It might be, but it's going to take some time.
18:08
Speaker 2: You know what I mean? So you have JMU. Everybody's
18:11
Speaker 2: hyped about them because of what they did the last
18:13
Speaker 2: few years. But this is just a total rebuild for
18:16
Speaker 2: JMU now. You know what I mean? Like a bunch
18:18
Speaker 2: of their guys left. They're having massive turnover. Whereas Liberty
18:21
Speaker 2: is going to have all this continuity. So I like
18:24
Speaker 2: that in this first game. Liberty probably considers themselves to
18:27
Speaker 2: be the little brother now too in the in-state rivalry.
18:30
Speaker 2: And you know I like that. Playing the little brother
18:32
Speaker 2: against the big brother in an in-state rivalry. The little
18:35
Speaker 2: brother usually has a little bit more motivation. And again,
18:37
Speaker 2: I think Liberty underperformed last year. So let's take Liberty.
18:40
Speaker 2: Like I said, the market agrees with it as well.
18:43
Speaker 2: So Liberty will be one of my plays here, plus
18:45
Speaker 2: the 6.5. I'd probably be fine with 6 as well,
18:49
Speaker 2: but I prefer the 6.5. I don't think you're going
18:52
Speaker 2: to see a 7 on this. So it'll be 6, 6.5.
18:54
Speaker 2: And as I always say, put a little bit on
18:57
Speaker 2: the money line because if you are playing a small
18:59
Speaker 2: dog like that, you're saying there's a pretty good chance
19:01
Speaker 2: they can win. So let's do that. All right, that's
19:06
Speaker 2: play number one. What else do we have here? I mean,
19:10
Speaker 2: Pitt and Miami, Ohio on the CW. Oh, wait, I skipped. Sorry,
19:13
Speaker 2: Ohio State, number one against Ball State. Ohio State's almost
19:17
Speaker 2: a 50-point favorite. This is on Big Ten Network. I mean,
19:20
Speaker 2: what do we even say about this? Like, Ohio State...
19:25
Speaker 2: They have a bunch of returning starters, including Sayen, their quarterback.
19:29
Speaker 2: They have not that Bo Jackson at running back. I
19:32
Speaker 2: don't think he's related either, but they're bringing back 11 starters,
19:35
Speaker 2: including the vast majority of their offense. Ohio State should
19:38
Speaker 2: hit the ground running again. You know what I mean?
19:41
Speaker 2: The question is, are they going to run up the
19:42
Speaker 2: score against Ball State? Ball State's bringing back seven. I
19:47
Speaker 2: don't have a good gauge on this game. I mean,
19:49
Speaker 2: it is what it is. Like Ohio State's going to win.
19:51
Speaker 2: It's just a matter of are they going to run
19:52
Speaker 2: up the score enough? Probably they won't. Like this is
19:55
Speaker 2: one of those games where I don't know what Ryan
19:57
Speaker 2: Day's tendencies are as far as that, but they got
19:59
Speaker 2: a big game against Texas coming up next week, right?
20:03
Speaker 2: Like Ohio State, Texas, that was the big game in
20:05
Speaker 2: week one last year. Ohio State did win it. But
20:07
Speaker 2: that's going to have playoff ramifications potentially right away. So, yeah,
20:13
Speaker 2: Ohio State might start looking ahead to that. You know
20:15
Speaker 2: what I mean? And they might start putting in their backups.
20:18
Speaker 2: Once they're ahead by, you know, 30 or whatever against
20:21
Speaker 2: Ball State, they might start putting in their backups. So
20:24
Speaker 2: I would not lay the points with Ohio State in
20:26
Speaker 2: this one. I don't really want Ball State either, but
20:29
Speaker 2: the money kind of is indicating on Ball State. 72%
20:32
Speaker 2: of tickets, 57% of cash on Ohio State. they're minus
20:36
Speaker 2: 49 and a half. It's about what it's been all week.
20:39
Speaker 2: Minus 50 and the totals 56 and a half. Oh
20:42
Speaker 2: my God. Um, like really? Uh, Oh, so Ohio state's
20:48
Speaker 2: supposed to win by 50, but there's supposed to be
20:50
Speaker 2: 56 points scored in the entire game. Like, so the
20:54
Speaker 2: final score, uh, based on those numbers is supposed to
20:58
Speaker 2: be 53 to three Ohio state. I mean, okay, whatever. Um,
21:04
Speaker 2: I would lean towards taking the boys to Ball State
21:06
Speaker 2: slightly there, but I really don't want it. It is
21:10
Speaker 2: a complete mismatch. Miami, Ohio at Pittsburgh. I mean, I
21:14
Speaker 2: think this is a mismatch too, even though Pittsburgh is
21:16
Speaker 2: only a 16.5 point favor and it's a low total.
21:19
Speaker 2: And I wouldn't really want to lay the points like
21:21
Speaker 2: that with a low total, but... I think I would
21:24
Speaker 2: lean that way if I had to play this game.
21:27
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh's bringing back a lot of their starters, 11 starters,
21:31
Speaker 2: including Heinzschel, their quarterback. So I think Pittsburgh should probably
21:36
Speaker 2: be ready to go to start the season. They got
21:38
Speaker 2: that continuity, whereas Miami, Ohio, they're bringing back nine starters,
21:42
Speaker 2: so a decent amount, but not as much. Yeah, I mean,
21:47
Speaker 2: I don't have a whole lot in this game either,
21:48
Speaker 2: but I would probably lean Pitt slightly here. Pitt does
21:52
Speaker 2: have a game against UCF next, which is, I guess,
21:54
Speaker 2: slightly bigger. But Pitt, 67% of tickets, 69% of the
21:59
Speaker 2: cash on them. It's been around 16.5 all week, so
22:01
Speaker 2: it is hovering below that 17, but that kind of
22:04
Speaker 2: worries me. If you want to lay the points with Pitt,
22:06
Speaker 2: it's like, why is this line not moved, even though
22:09
Speaker 2: they have kind of the majority of the tickets on them?
22:11
Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, it's not really a game
22:13
Speaker 2: that the public's going to get much involved and i
22:16
Speaker 2: don't think in the totals low the totals already dropped
22:18
Speaker 2: like the under has gotten hammered in this game so
22:21
Speaker 2: it looks like the under is the biggest like market
22:23
Speaker 2: read in this game uh it's down to 47 and
22:25
Speaker 2: a half it's already gone down from 50 and a
22:27
Speaker 2: half so it's right on that key number of 47
22:30
Speaker 2: now like just above it i don't love laying double
22:32
Speaker 2: digits with a low total like that i will tell
22:34
Speaker 2: you that but i think if i had to i'd
22:36
Speaker 2: probably lay it with pittsburgh um ESPN or the SEC network,
22:41
Speaker 2: excuse me, has Kent state and South Carolina. We haven't
22:43
Speaker 2: heard much about South Carolina over the off season, I think,
22:46
Speaker 2: but they are bringing back 10 starters there. Um, I
22:50
Speaker 2: believe they have, um, Shane Beamer. Is that his name?
22:53
Speaker 2: Frank Beamer's son. He's still the coach there. Sellers is
22:56
Speaker 2: coming back again as quarterbacks. They do have some continuity here. Um,
23:00
Speaker 2: and Kent state is bad, but they are bringing back
23:04
Speaker 2: nine starters, including their quarterback drew to shields. Um, It
23:10
Speaker 2: looks like they're not bringing back. What happened to, what
23:13
Speaker 2: was that dude's name? Dorealist Clark? Where's he? He's not
23:16
Speaker 2: coming back? Now, Kent State, they've been like a complete
23:19
Speaker 2: bottom dweller the last couple years. So because they're bringing
23:21
Speaker 2: back nine starters, Kent State might actually be a little
23:25
Speaker 2: bit better this year. But, I mean, what is that
23:28
Speaker 2: going to really do when they're one of the worst
23:30
Speaker 2: teams in all of FBS? And now they're playing against
23:32
Speaker 2: South Carolina. And South Carolina's up to a 36.5-point favorite.
23:36
Speaker 2: from 33 and a half. The money has come in
23:39
Speaker 2: on South Carolina, 78% of tickets, 93% of the cash
23:43
Speaker 2: on them. I mean, it's, it, it crossed through one
23:47
Speaker 2: key number of 35, but once you get into numbers
23:49
Speaker 2: that are this high, the numbers kind of get less key. Like, yeah, it's,
23:54
Speaker 2: you know, it's exactly whatever, five touchdowns, but, I don't know, man.
23:59
Speaker 2: I wouldn't want to lay a number like that anyway.
24:01
Speaker 2: There's always the risk that the team's going to start
24:03
Speaker 2: packing in. South Carolina really wasn't that good offensively last year.
24:07
Speaker 2: They were a bit more of a defensive team, so
24:09
Speaker 2: I don't know. The total's not exactly that high in
24:12
Speaker 2: that game, so I don't know. I don't think I'd
24:13
Speaker 2: want South Carolina. They don't have a big game up next, though.
24:17
Speaker 2: All right. Mr. Pinsey, what's up? Thanks for hanging out.
24:23
Speaker 2: What else we got here? Get to run through a
24:26
Speaker 2: bunch of these other games. Some of these ranked teams
24:28
Speaker 2: are just playing FCS teams, just cupcakes, whatever. I'm skipping
24:32
Speaker 2: over those. Boise State and Oregon. Oregon is ranked number
24:35
Speaker 2: two right now. And I do think they're good. Like
24:38
Speaker 2: I said, the very top of the Big Ten is
24:40
Speaker 2: very good. Even though I think the SEC.
24:44
Speaker 2: Is probably the more balanced conference. I think the SEC,
24:48
Speaker 2: you could make the argument they're the better conference just
24:51
Speaker 2: because they're more balanced. They're not top-heavy. The Big Ten
24:56
Speaker 2: is top-heavy. A few of the top teams are all
25:01
Speaker 2: in the Big Ten, but then there's a big drop-off
25:03
Speaker 2: in the Big Ten, whereas the SEC has a lot
25:05
Speaker 2: of competitive teams in it. Just pointing that out. But yeah,
25:09
Speaker 2: Oregon is ranked number two right now. This game's on
25:12
Speaker 2: CBS at 3.30 p.m. Eastern. as we hit the 3 p.m.
25:15
Speaker 2: slate here. Oregon and Boise, they seem to play each
25:18
Speaker 2: other every year, if I'm not mistaken. Am I wrong
25:21
Speaker 2: about that? I don't know. I mean, they're sort of neighbors,
25:24
Speaker 2: I guess. They both play sort of in the Pacific Northwest. Boise,
25:27
Speaker 2: I think, always consider themselves to be a little brother,
25:30
Speaker 2: of course, because they're one of the smaller conference teams,
25:32
Speaker 2: although now they're in the pack. The newly formed Pac-12,
25:35
Speaker 2: and Oregon is no longer in a Pac-12 conference. Of course,
25:39
Speaker 2: they're in the Big Ten. Oregon's a big favorite in
25:42
Speaker 2: this one. Can Boise hang? I mean, maybe, but both
25:46
Speaker 2: teams are returning a lot of starters. Oregon's returning 14 starters,
25:49
Speaker 2: including Dante Moore, their quarterback. Eight defensive players are coming
25:54
Speaker 2: back out of the 11. Oregon's going to have a
25:56
Speaker 2: lot of continuity. They're going to be good. There's no
25:58
Speaker 2: doubt about that. I mean, they're ranked number two in
26:01
Speaker 2: the country for a reason. They're going to be one
26:03
Speaker 2: of the top teams. I don't think they're going to
26:05
Speaker 2: be able to win at all because it seems like
26:08
Speaker 2: that never happens, and the travel just seems to get
26:11
Speaker 2: to them Like in the Big Ten, they have to
26:13
Speaker 2: travel across the country numerous times. They're going to be good, though.
26:18
Speaker 2: Boise is bringing back a lot of starters as well.
26:20
Speaker 2: They're bringing back 13 starters, including Maddox Madsen, their quarterback.
26:24
Speaker 2: I think they kind of underperformed last year, and they
26:27
Speaker 2: still won the Mountain West last year again. And if
26:30
Speaker 2: you remember, Madsen was hurt for part of the season
26:32
Speaker 2: last year as well. And I believe Boise had that
26:35
Speaker 2: really embarrassing opener, right, where they lost. Was that last
26:38
Speaker 2: year or was it two years ago where they lost
26:40
Speaker 2: the opener to South Florida? I don't remember. I think
26:43
Speaker 2: it was last year. Because I remember, like, South Florida,
26:46
Speaker 2: everybody was hyping them up, and they were like, I'm
26:49
Speaker 2: going to look. And they were, like, ranked, and I
26:51
Speaker 2: was like, we've got to fade South Florida. And we
26:53
Speaker 2: got it right. I think it was against Miami or something, whatever.
26:55
Speaker 2: We did that. We, like, laid a bunch of points
26:58
Speaker 2: against South Florida on the show. Yeah, that was last year. Embarrassing, 34-7.
27:03
Speaker 2: So after that happened to Boise State, that was a
27:06
Speaker 2: weird spot for them. They had to go way back.
27:08
Speaker 2: down to the southeast U.S. for it. It's going to
27:11
Speaker 2: be easier for them to just go to Oregon here,
27:13
Speaker 2: although I know it's a tough place to play Eugene.
27:15
Speaker 2: Maybe Boise can hang around, but because both teams have
27:19
Speaker 2: a lot of continuity, I kind of think the over
27:22
Speaker 2: is the right way to play this game. It looks
27:24
Speaker 2: like a very public over, though. 87% of tickets and cash,
27:27
Speaker 2: and the line actually slightly dropped. It's at 51.5, which
27:31
Speaker 2: is above that key number of 51, but it opened 52%.
27:36
Speaker 2: I kind of think the over comes in on this one.
27:38
Speaker 2: I worry a little bit about it because it's a
27:39
Speaker 2: very public over, and these teams haven't played yet, so
27:44
Speaker 2: they might start a little bit slow for that reason.
27:46
Speaker 2: 85% of tickets, 93% of the cash on Oregon, and
27:51
Speaker 2: minus 24.5, and that number's kind of stayed where it
27:54
Speaker 2: has been the whole time. I don't have a whole
27:57
Speaker 2: lot on this game. I don't have a good read
27:59
Speaker 2: on the side in this game. To me, though, with
28:01
Speaker 2: the offensive continuity, it seems like there are going to
28:03
Speaker 2: be points in this game. although Oregon should be better
28:07
Speaker 2: defensively too, though, so I don't know. Texas State is
28:11
Speaker 2: at number five, Texas, on ESPN. I do like Texas
28:14
Speaker 2: State in this one. Both teams have a ton of
28:16
Speaker 2: returning starters, though, but Texas is laying a lot of points, obviously.
28:21
Speaker 2: Texas State is a little brother, and they probably want
28:24
Speaker 2: to get the season off on the right foot. Texas
28:26
Speaker 2: State is now in the, where are they? They're in
28:29
Speaker 2: the Mountain West now, I think. Something like that. Texas
28:33
Speaker 2: State moved up to one of these conferences here. I'll
28:35
Speaker 2: have to get the lay of the land still. But
28:38
Speaker 2: they're staying in the state of Texas for this, and
28:40
Speaker 2: you know that they get up for a game like this.
28:43
Speaker 2: It's little brother versus big brother. The only question I
28:46
Speaker 2: think really is, Texas State, do they have enough defense
28:51
Speaker 2: to do something in this game? Texas State has been
28:53
Speaker 2: a good offense recently, but we'll see what they can
28:56
Speaker 2: do with their defense. Do they have a new coach? No,
28:59
Speaker 2: they don't have a new coach. I don't know why
29:01
Speaker 2: I thought that they did. They do have 11 returning starters,
29:04
Speaker 2: Texas State does, including Brad Jackson, their quarterback, and the
29:08
Speaker 2: majority of their offense is coming back. So their offense
29:11
Speaker 2: should be pretty good, again, but their defense might lack
29:15
Speaker 2: a little bit. Texas is bringing back a ton of starters.
29:18
Speaker 2: They're bringing back 13, 7 on offense, 6 on defense,
29:22
Speaker 2: including Arch Manning, the quarterback, who he might be kind
29:26
Speaker 2: of underrated, man. I mean, everybody shits on him. I
29:28
Speaker 2: don't know. he kind of flies under the radar. I
29:32
Speaker 2: think Texas is going to have a really difficult schedule.
29:34
Speaker 2: As we saw Texas, they have to play Ohio state
29:37
Speaker 2: in game 2, as I told you. That's a big game,
29:39
Speaker 2: so Texas might start looking ahead. I think Texas is
29:43
Speaker 2: going to win this game, obviously, but what might happen
29:45
Speaker 2: is they might start resting their starters at the end
29:48
Speaker 2: of the game, you know what I mean? Because they might...
29:50
Speaker 2: Just start getting ready for Ohio State. They don't want
29:52
Speaker 2: to get anybody hurt. The other thing is, Texas might
29:55
Speaker 2: not want to show anything. Teams like Texas, Ohio State,
29:58
Speaker 2: they know they have this big game up next against
30:00
Speaker 2: each other, right? So why would you show... your crazier
30:04
Speaker 2: offensive plays in a game like this. You know what
30:06
Speaker 2: I mean? You can go more vanilla on offense, and
30:09
Speaker 2: you don't want to give your big opponent that you
30:10
Speaker 2: have next a bunch of tape on what you plan
30:13
Speaker 2: on doing, right? So you might go a little bit
30:14
Speaker 2: vanilla knowing that you can do that and still win
30:16
Speaker 2: that game. So that kind of detracts from wanting to
30:19
Speaker 2: lay the points in a game like that as well.
30:21
Speaker 2: So yeah, I would lean Texas State in this one.
30:24
Speaker 2: Texas is public, 89% of tickets, 81% of the cash
30:27
Speaker 2: on Texas. They're minus 29.5 here. They dropped from 30
30:31
Speaker 2: and have not a huge move there. It's a kind
30:34
Speaker 2: of high total, close to 60. I don't really want
30:37
Speaker 2: to do it, but yeah, I would say Texas State
30:39
Speaker 2: would be my lean in that one, plus the points there. Zach,
30:43
Speaker 2: what's up? Thanks for hanging out. All right, Zach, we
30:47
Speaker 2: got a win with the Royals the other day on
30:49
Speaker 2: my show. What was that, yesterday? It was recently. I
30:53
Speaker 2: think it was yesterday. Yeah, on Thursday. It was my
30:56
Speaker 2: only play. Fox Sports won number 18 Penn State against Marshall.
31:01
Speaker 2: People might look at this and think, why is Penn
31:03
Speaker 2: State ranked number 18 after they had that epic collapse
31:06
Speaker 2: last year, right? And now Penn State is a new team.
31:09
Speaker 2: James Franklin's gone. The good thing for Penn State, though,
31:13
Speaker 2: is that there's going to be continuity because they're bringing
31:15
Speaker 2: in Matt Campbell from Iowa State, but he's bringing over
31:18
Speaker 2: a bunch of his guys, including Beck, their quarterback that
31:21
Speaker 2: was on Iowa State. So Penn State will have continuity
31:26
Speaker 2: because it's basically like a bunch of the guys from
31:29
Speaker 2: Iowa State are just moving over to a different geographic location.
31:32
Speaker 2: But the question is, Iowa State, they played in the
31:34
Speaker 2: Big 12. Can they handle the Big 10 defenses once
31:38
Speaker 2: they start getting to it? I don't know, but they
31:40
Speaker 2: don't have to do that here because they're playing Marshall,
31:43
Speaker 2: you know, a Sunbelt team. Penn State, after how bad
31:47
Speaker 2: they were last year, yeah, I mean, people might be wondering, like,
31:50
Speaker 2: why the hell are they ranked like this? Although usually
31:53
Speaker 2: the public just reads the rankings on. They just go, oh,
31:56
Speaker 2: Penn State's the number 18 team in the country because
32:00
Speaker 2: I'm being told that. You know what I mean? Penn
32:02
Speaker 2: State might still wind up being public here, but they
32:04
Speaker 2: might be able to cover this. Although the money's coming
32:07
Speaker 2: in on Marshall. 74% of tickets on Penn State, 55%
32:10
Speaker 2: of the cash on Marshall. Penn State's a 23.5-point favorite here.
32:15
Speaker 2: The line really hasn't moved. It's stayed below that key
32:18
Speaker 2: number of 24, and that kind of worries me that
32:21
Speaker 2: if a team is public like that and the line
32:23
Speaker 2: has not moved at all and it's just hovering below
32:27
Speaker 2: that key number, yeah, the market read is definitely saying
32:30
Speaker 2: to play Marshall plus the points in this one along
32:33
Speaker 2: with the fact that the money's coming in on the
32:35
Speaker 2: under in that one. And the total is 52.5. I
32:37
Speaker 2: don't know. I mean, maybe there will be some growing
32:41
Speaker 2: pains with Matt Campbell having to come over and implement
32:44
Speaker 2: his system here at a new school. But he's bringing
32:46
Speaker 2: over a lot of his guys, man. Penn State, they
32:48
Speaker 2: do only have four returning starters. But again, like I said,
32:52
Speaker 2: the coach and a bunch of his players are coming
32:54
Speaker 2: over from Iowa State.
32:56
Speaker 5: So.
32:57
Speaker 2: do with that info what you want, I guess. Uh,
32:59
Speaker 2: Marshall does have nine returning starters though. So Marshall does
33:03
Speaker 2: have some continuity, especially on offense with, um, Del Rio Wilson, uh,
33:10
Speaker 2: their quarterback coming back, uh, not a six guys on
33:13
Speaker 2: their offense coming back, uh, including Jalen slappy. Great name, man.
33:18
Speaker 2: One of their offensive linemen. Does he slap the defensive lineman? Uh,
33:22
Speaker 2: I don't know. Um, As far as Penn State, yeah,
33:26
Speaker 2: I mean, they don't have a huge game up next.
33:27
Speaker 2: They're playing Temple, though. That is a Pennsylvania game, but
33:32
Speaker 2: Temple probably is the team that considers that to be
33:34
Speaker 2: a bigger game than Penn State does. Temple will be
33:37
Speaker 2: the little brother in that situation. I don't have a
33:40
Speaker 2: whole lot on that game, though. New job, congratulations, sir.
33:46
Speaker 5: Yes.
33:47
Speaker 2: Well, this is the season for the after dark, but
33:49
Speaker 2: I kind of hate this man. Cause I don't get
33:51
Speaker 2: enough sleep. Um, it really kind of sucks, but this
33:54
Speaker 2: hopefully I'm blowing through this quickly. Like I'm hoping this
33:57
Speaker 2: is only going to take me about an hour this time.
33:59
Speaker 2: Cause there aren't that many big games this time. Like
34:02
Speaker 2: a lot of the big teams are playing like FCS
34:04
Speaker 2: teams and I just don't cover those games. ABC has
34:07
Speaker 2: one of the big games of the day, Baylor and Auburn.
34:09
Speaker 2: And this is a neutral site game in Atlanta, Georgia
34:14
Speaker 2: at Mercedes-Benz. So that is where the Falcons play. But
34:18
Speaker 2: it'll be like... it'll be a more Auburn heavy crowd though.
34:21
Speaker 2: You know, I mean, Auburn's closer to Atlanta cause they're
34:25
Speaker 2: in Northern Alabama. So Auburn probably will have more of
34:28
Speaker 2: the crowd than Baylor. Well, it'll probably be like two
34:30
Speaker 2: thirds Auburn, I would guess. So do with that info
34:33
Speaker 2: what you want. Uh, these two teams have both had
34:35
Speaker 2: some shakeups here. Uh, Baylor is only bringing back five starters.
34:41
Speaker 2: Auburn's only bringing back three. So the question is like,
34:44
Speaker 2: what's going on with these teams? Um, Baylor is still
34:49
Speaker 2: maintaining their coach and whatever. They don't have a lot
34:53
Speaker 2: of returning starters. They are bringing over DJ Lagway as
34:57
Speaker 2: their quarterback from Florida. And he was kind of notorious
35:01
Speaker 2: for making a bunch of mistakes at Florida. I don't
35:04
Speaker 2: know if Baylor is going to be able to clean
35:05
Speaker 2: that up or not, but he was interception prone. And
35:08
Speaker 2: it's interesting because Auburn, they finally fired– who was their
35:12
Speaker 2: coach that was there for a long time? I forget.
35:15
Speaker 2: I forget. I don't know why I can't remember his name.
35:19
Speaker 2: They brought in Alex Golish, who was the South Florida coach,
35:23
Speaker 2: along with the quarterback, Byron Brown, who's kind of a
35:26
Speaker 2: dual-threat quarterback who was at South Florida. So Brown is
35:31
Speaker 2: going with this coach, so there is that. So there's
35:33
Speaker 2: a little bit of continuity there with the quarterback and
35:35
Speaker 2: coach already knowing each other.
35:37
Speaker 4: So....
35:39
Speaker 2: Auburn, I think, has a little bit more continuity here. Yeah, Freeze,
35:42
Speaker 2: that's right, Hugh Freeze. Yeah, well, they froze him out, apparently.
35:47
Speaker 2: He's finally gone. I think I kind of like what
35:50
Speaker 2: Auburn has done here a little bit more than Baylor,
35:52
Speaker 2: at least out of the gate here. Baylor, I think,
35:54
Speaker 2: is going to take a step back, man. I mean, Lagway,
35:57
Speaker 2: I mean, the one thing you could say, I guess,
35:59
Speaker 2: is that, because I just mentioned, remember I mentioned South
36:01
Speaker 2: Florida upset Florida last year, and that was, it's weird
36:05
Speaker 2: because that was, This is Auburn-Baylor, but this is kind
36:08
Speaker 2: of a revenge game, if you want, for DJ Lagway
36:11
Speaker 2: because he was the quarterback for Florida when they lost
36:14
Speaker 2: to South Florida, and that was against Byron Brown and
36:17
Speaker 2: Alex Kolesh. So this is a rematch between those two quarterbacks,
36:22
Speaker 2: and they're both on different teams. Very, very weird, but
36:25
Speaker 2: that's what's going on here. It's the era of transfers, man.
36:30
Speaker 2: It's just what it is. I still like Auburn in
36:33
Speaker 2: this game, though. I think the public is not going
36:35
Speaker 2: to want to lay the points here. Auburn, 57% of tickets,
36:38
Speaker 2: 65% of the cash. They did open seven. They've been
36:41
Speaker 2: seven and a half pretty much all week. I don't
36:43
Speaker 2: think you're going to get a seven. It immediately moved
36:46
Speaker 2: up to that seven and a half, so I think
36:48
Speaker 2: there was some real money on Auburn. If you force
36:53
Speaker 2: me to play it, I would still probably lay the points, though,
36:55
Speaker 2: and lay the 7.5. I don't think you're going to
36:57
Speaker 2: get a 7 on this anymore because I think the
36:59
Speaker 2: real money is coming in that way, and the public
37:01
Speaker 2: is not heavy enough on Baylor to counteract that. But, yeah,
37:07
Speaker 2: so I kind of like Auburn to have a little
37:09
Speaker 2: bit more continuity there with a coach and QB that
37:12
Speaker 2: know each other already. I know it's a revenge game
37:15
Speaker 2: of sorts for Lagway, but I don't really love that.
37:17
Speaker 2: And Auburn, it should be like two-thirds crowd towards Auburn
37:22
Speaker 2: And just the public, they don't want to lay points
37:24
Speaker 2: with a team like Auburn from what they've seen recently
37:26
Speaker 2: out of Auburn. I feel like the public is just...
37:29
Speaker 2: To me, it seems like they're really low on Auburn.
37:31
Speaker 2: But I expect Baylor to take a step back. I mean, Lagway...
37:34
Speaker 2: I don't know, man. He just didn't pan out with Florida.
37:37
Speaker 2: Maybe it was coaching, though. I don't know. Baylor... losing
37:42
Speaker 2: their quarterback to the NFL, of course. I'm assuming he's
37:45
Speaker 2: in the NFL, which was Sawyer Robertson, I think was
37:49
Speaker 2: his name. He definitely entered the draft. I don't know
37:51
Speaker 2: if he actually got drafted. Fox has my boys, Bill
37:56
Speaker 2: O'Brien with Boston College. Yes, he's still the coach at
37:59
Speaker 2: Boston College at Cincinnati this time. Cincinnati, they got some
38:04
Speaker 2: stuff going on, man, where their quarterback from last year, Sorsby,
38:10
Speaker 2: is no longer there because he was gambling on games, which,
38:14
Speaker 2: you know, I mean, I'm kind of lenient towards that,
38:18
Speaker 2: to be honest. I'm just kind of like, whatever. Like,
38:21
Speaker 2: it depends what type of gambling. Like, are you gambling
38:24
Speaker 2: against yourself and throwing games? Like, that I would have
38:27
Speaker 2: a problem with. But if you're betting like.
38:31
Speaker 2: Or if you're just betting on games you're not even
38:33
Speaker 2: involved in, I don't think that should be a problem
38:35
Speaker 2: at all. But if you're betting on yourself, I don't
38:37
Speaker 2: think that should be a problem either. Like, yeah, fuck it, whatever.
38:40
Speaker 2: Motivate yourself more, you know what I mean? But Sorsby
38:43
Speaker 2: will be gone. So Cincinnati did lose their quarterback. They
38:46
Speaker 2: only are bringing back five starters. And I don't even know,
38:50
Speaker 2: I honestly don't know. Their quarterback is JC French IV.
38:55
Speaker 2: No idea who the fuck that is.
38:58
Speaker 3: I don't know.
38:59
Speaker 2: And Boston College is bringing up like a D2 quarterback.
39:02
Speaker 2: I think Mason McKenzie, I guess, is this guy's name.
39:05
Speaker 2: I think he's a dual-threat quarterback. I don't know much
39:07
Speaker 2: about him. So we will have two new quarterbacks participating
39:12
Speaker 2: in this game here, I believe. BC is only bringing
39:15
Speaker 2: back five starters, mostly on the defense. Cincinnati is laying
39:20
Speaker 2: seven and a half. I don't really think they should be, man.
39:24
Speaker 2: I'm not high on Cincinnati this year. I don't know
39:26
Speaker 2: what's going to happen with them this year. They were
39:29
Speaker 2: open nine. 9.5, and the line plummeted all the way
39:32
Speaker 2: down to 7.5. It has not gone through that key
39:34
Speaker 2: number 7, though. So if you like BC, you could
39:37
Speaker 2: still get plus 7.5 on this, which isn't too bad.
39:41
Speaker 2: And the total's not too high. It's in the high 40s,
39:43
Speaker 2: so it makes a little bit more sense to take
39:45
Speaker 2: the points. That's the way I would lean. BC plus
39:49
Speaker 2: the 7.5, 69% of tickets, 81% of the cash on them.
39:52
Speaker 2: Money also coming in on the under in that one,
39:54
Speaker 2: which kind of indicates that way too. Not a strong
39:56
Speaker 2: opinion by any means for me though. Tulane is playing
40:00
Speaker 2: Duke on ACC Network. Duke, I think they're going to
40:03
Speaker 2: take a major step back. They won the ACC last year,
40:07
Speaker 2: and I think they kind of fluked their way to it.
40:09
Speaker 2: Fluke Duke last year. They were not the best team
40:13
Speaker 2: in the ACC, as we know. Miami was. But Duke
40:16
Speaker 2: won the ACC because of the way the season played out.
40:20
Speaker 2: Duke's going to take a step back, though, right? Because
40:21
Speaker 2: they did lose Mensah, as I already pointed out. Mensah is... Oh, yeah,
40:27
Speaker 2: he played tonight. He beat us tonight with Miami. Fuck that.
40:31
Speaker 2: So Mensah was on both of these teams, Tulane and Duke.
40:33
Speaker 2: And then last year, these teams played each other. I
40:37
Speaker 2: believe it was in Duke as well. Was it at
40:39
Speaker 2: Duke or was it a neutral site? I forget. I
40:41
Speaker 2: thought it was at Duke. I might be wrong. It
40:44
Speaker 2: might have been at Tulane because this game is at Duke.
40:46
Speaker 2: And usually when two teams play each other, multiple seasons
40:51
Speaker 2: in a row like this, usually they switch who's the
40:53
Speaker 2: home team, so I don't know, but I remember that game,
40:56
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure Tulane won that game, and I think
40:59
Speaker 2: Duke threw the game away, like, I think Duke won
41:02
Speaker 2: the game statistically, and they turned it over a bunch
41:04
Speaker 2: of times, and I think I had them in, like,
41:06
Speaker 2: my pick seven entry or whatever, which, by the way,
41:08
Speaker 2: I'm a pick seven entry, not off to a good
41:10
Speaker 2: start with Stanford, so that's great, anyway, Duke, yeah, Duke
41:19
Speaker 2: might want this game just because they lost to Tulane
41:21
Speaker 2: last year. It was a loss that they shouldn't have taken,
41:24
Speaker 2: and Duke was the better team in the game. Both
41:27
Speaker 2: of these teams, I think, are going to be going
41:28
Speaker 2: through some growing pains, though, because Duke lost their QB.
41:32
Speaker 2: They're bringing back eight guys. Tulane's only bringing back five,
41:36
Speaker 2: and Tulane has a new coach coming in, I'm pretty sure.
41:40
Speaker 2: Will Hall is coming in, but he was already with
41:42
Speaker 2: the team, though. So Tulane, you know, they did one
41:46
Speaker 2: of those.
41:48
Speaker 2: What's the word I'm looking for? Promotion from within, I guess,
41:51
Speaker 2: is the term I'm looking for. So Will Hall is
41:53
Speaker 2: Tulane's new coach. He was an offensive assistant at Tulane.
41:57
Speaker 2: So he knows the system. So that probably means the
42:00
Speaker 2: system isn't going to change that much. So there is that,
42:02
Speaker 2: at least, for Tulane. I don't know how much that's
42:06
Speaker 2: really going to matter. As far as the QBs and whatever,
42:11
Speaker 2: Duke has Walker Eget. Is that Eget? I don't know
42:15
Speaker 2: how you pronounce his name. I don't know who he is.
42:17
Speaker 2: You know, maybe I should do some more research on this,
42:20
Speaker 2: but I got pretty much nothing on this game, man.
42:22
Speaker 2: I mean, it's kind of a revenge spot for Duke. However,
42:25
Speaker 2: I don't think Duke is going to be anywhere near
42:27
Speaker 2: as good this year, but Duke looks like they are
42:30
Speaker 2: the side that the market is indicating on now. After
42:32
Speaker 2: they dropped from 8.5 at open down to a 7.5,
42:35
Speaker 2: but 69% of the tickets on Tulane, only 68% of
42:39
Speaker 2: the cash. So Tulane looks like they're kind of a
42:41
Speaker 2: public underdog here right now. You know, maybe I... Maybe
42:47
Speaker 2: I do slightly lean Duke here. I mean, I don't
42:49
Speaker 2: think Duke's going to be good this year. They're definitely
42:51
Speaker 2: going to be a lot worse than they were last year.
42:53
Speaker 2: And I think they overperformed last year. But, yeah, I
42:56
Speaker 2: don't know. Tulane, though, I mean, Tulane made the playoff
42:58
Speaker 2: last year, right? So I thought Tulane might be a
43:01
Speaker 2: little bit public, too. But both of these teams performed
43:03
Speaker 2: well last year. So I think they're both taking a
43:05
Speaker 2: step back this year. Let's put it that way. So
43:07
Speaker 2: I'm not really high on either of these teams this year.
43:10
Speaker 2: So it is what it is. Maybe a slight lean
43:13
Speaker 2: towards Duke in that one, but I got pretty much
43:15
Speaker 2: nothing there. ESPNU at 3.45 p.m. Eastern. We have the
43:20
Speaker 2: Battle of Oklahoma, if you want to call it. Well,
43:22
Speaker 2: it's not the official. What do we call Oklahoma State
43:25
Speaker 2: versus Oklahoma again? I forget what the name of that
43:28
Speaker 2: rivalry is, but that's not what this is. This is
43:30
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State and Tulsa. Now, notoriously, Tulsa won this matchup
43:35
Speaker 2: last year. Oklahoma State was very bad last year. Tulsa
43:38
Speaker 2: won this game. It was still a big upset for Tulsa.
43:41
Speaker 2: But Tulsa always gets up for Oklahoma State, so that's
43:43
Speaker 2: the thing. Like, how do we balance those two things?
43:46
Speaker 2: Because Tulsa's the little brother. They're at home this time.
43:49
Speaker 2: They always get up for playing Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, whatever.
43:52
Speaker 2: They always get up for these in-state games with the
43:55
Speaker 2: little brother. But Oklahoma State might not overlook them this
43:58
Speaker 2: time because they know they lost to Tulsa last year,
44:01
Speaker 2: and I think it was at Oklahoma State as well. Now,
44:04
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State, they got a bunch of changes here. They
44:08
Speaker 2: got a new coach coming in, which is... Zach Morris,
44:11
Speaker 2: is that his name? Eric Morris, sorry, Zach Morris. I'm like, wait, what?
44:15
Speaker 2: Eric Morris from North Texas, but he is taking his
44:17
Speaker 2: quarterback with him, Drew Mestemaker. So that offense was very prolific, man,
44:23
Speaker 2: at North Texas. Of course, they were not in the
44:26
Speaker 2: Big 12. Wait, is Oklahoma State still in the Big 12?
44:29
Speaker 2: I think so. Yeah, they were not in the Big 12, but.
44:34
Speaker 2: North Texas, good offense with Drew Mastemaker and with Eric
44:36
Speaker 2: Morris at the helm, so there is going to be
44:38
Speaker 2: a little bit of continuity here. Like I said in
44:41
Speaker 2: my preview, Oklahoma State should be better this year than
44:43
Speaker 2: they were. I mean, it's tough for them to get
44:45
Speaker 2: worse because they were like a doormat in a bad conference.
44:49
Speaker 2: I think they're going to be better, but how quickly
44:52
Speaker 2: are they going to be better? You know what I mean?
44:54
Speaker 2: I like this, like the hire of Morris, bringing his
44:56
Speaker 2: quarterback with him. There will be some continuity there. They
44:59
Speaker 2: are kind of in revenge, but the question is, how
45:02
Speaker 2: much is revenge going to matter when they only have
45:04
Speaker 2: four returning starters? You know what I mean? Tulsa has eight,
45:07
Speaker 2: by the way, including their quarterback coming back, Baylor Hayes.
45:11
Speaker 2: But most of the defense is coming back. Most of
45:14
Speaker 2: the offense is turning over for Tulsa here. And I
45:18
Speaker 2: don't mean committing turnovers in the game. The money is
45:21
Speaker 2: heavily indicating on Tulsa in this game, though. Tulsa, 71%
45:26
Speaker 2: of the cash on them, 66% of the tickets on
45:28
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State. The number moved up from 11.5 to 13.5 initially,
45:33
Speaker 2: but it looks like all the real money is coming
45:35
Speaker 2: in on Tulsa on this one. I think I slightly disagree,
45:40
Speaker 2: to be honest. I like the moves that Oklahoma State made.
45:43
Speaker 2: I think there will be some continuity there, and I
45:47
Speaker 2: think they're... I think it's going to be a motivational thing,
45:50
Speaker 2: even though the coach wasn't there last year. I think
45:52
Speaker 2: he might. If I was the coach, that's what I
45:53
Speaker 2: would do. I would say, you guys lost to this
45:55
Speaker 2: team last year. You got upset by this little brother
45:59
Speaker 2: of ours last year. We can't let that happen again.
46:02
Speaker 2: You know what I mean? So I don't know. I
46:05
Speaker 2: kind of disagree with the market reading that one. Slight
46:08
Speaker 2: lean for me towards Oklahoma State, but I don't feel
46:10
Speaker 2: strongly about it. And the money is definitely disagreeing. Northern
46:14
Speaker 2: Illinois is at number 22 Iowa on Big Ten Network. Iowa,
46:19
Speaker 2: I believe they're changing their quarterback. Gronowski, I believe, was
46:22
Speaker 2: still there last year, and he's in the NFL now.
46:24
Speaker 2: A lot of changes for Iowa. Now, I believe, if
46:27
Speaker 2: I'm not mistaken, I believe Iowa, Ferentz finally retired before
46:31
Speaker 2: last year, and I believe his son took over. You
46:34
Speaker 2: can correct me if I'm wrong about that as far
46:36
Speaker 2: as their coach is concerned, but I think that kind
46:38
Speaker 2: of meant that the system would remain in place. But
46:40
Speaker 2: Iowa's only got six returning starters, man. So I don't
46:44
Speaker 2: know exactly what we're going to get out of them,
46:46
Speaker 2: but Iowa's usually known as more of a defensive team.
46:48
Speaker 2: A lot of times they can't really throw the ball,
46:51
Speaker 2: but they run the ball well, and they do have
46:53
Speaker 2: a returning running back here, Moulton. Do with that info
46:57
Speaker 2: what you want. They're definitely the better team in this game, obviously,
47:01
Speaker 2: against Northern Illinois, who is now, I believe, in the
47:04
Speaker 2: Mountain West for some reason. good luck uh to northern
47:07
Speaker 2: illinois playing in the mountain west at least they're staying
47:09
Speaker 2: in the midwest for this game they only have four
47:12
Speaker 2: returning starters none on defense they are returning their running
47:16
Speaker 2: back telly johnson jr but big time turnover at northern
47:20
Speaker 2: illinois here as well uh which i don't think they're
47:23
Speaker 2: i was gonna say i don't think they're changing their
47:24
Speaker 2: quarterback but a lot of turnover there um Yeah, I mean,
47:30
Speaker 2: I don't think I'd lay the points with Iowa, though.
47:32
Speaker 2: They're minus 31.5, and the total is ridiculously low. I mean,
47:35
Speaker 2: it's a very Iowa total. Like I said, they're pretty
47:38
Speaker 2: much known for defense and not being able to score much.
47:40
Speaker 2: And actually, Northern Illinois is known for doing that, too.
47:44
Speaker 2: So I guess maybe this game could be an under.
47:46
Speaker 2: The total's at 44.5. The money is coming in on
47:48
Speaker 2: the over, though, but these two teams both play a
47:51
Speaker 2: low-scoring style of game. I would not want to lay 31.5
47:55
Speaker 2: in a game like this, although I believe Iowa had
47:59
Speaker 2: kind of a similar game last year where they did
48:00
Speaker 2: cover 61% of tickets, 65% of the cash on Iowa,
48:05
Speaker 2: but Iowa had more of a passing attack last year with,
48:07
Speaker 2: I believe it was still last year with Gronowski there.
48:10
Speaker 2: They might not be able to replicate that again, so
48:13
Speaker 2: we'll see, but Given that we have no idea if
48:15
Speaker 2: Iowa's offense is even really going to be that good,
48:18
Speaker 2: and given that we know kind of the style that
48:21
Speaker 2: Iowa plays, I would not lay them. I would take
48:24
Speaker 2: the points with Northern Illinois here, and Iowa has their
48:26
Speaker 2: big rivalry against Iowa State next. It seems like they
48:29
Speaker 2: always play in Week 2. The Cy Hawk Trophy, because
48:35
Speaker 2: it's the Cyclones versus the Hawkeyes, that's a big game.
48:39
Speaker 2: So Iowa might pack it in early. They might start
48:41
Speaker 2: looking ahead, whatever. So I would take the points with
48:44
Speaker 2: Northern Illinois if I was going to play that one.
48:47
Speaker 2: USA Network, as we get into the evening, 6 p.m.,
48:50
Speaker 2: Mountain West here. Wyoming and Colorado State, which I think
48:53
Speaker 2: is actually Mountain West against Pac-12 now. I don't even fucking.
48:58
Speaker 5: Know, dude.
48:58
Speaker 2: I think that's what it is. I think Colorado State moved.
49:02
Speaker 2: Colorado State has Jim Mora as their coach now, who
49:05
Speaker 2: I believe is Jim Mora Jr., but I still have
49:07
Speaker 2: to do it. Playoffs? Don't talk about it. Playoffs?
49:12
Speaker 1: You kidding me?
49:14
Speaker 2: Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game. Another game.
49:19
Speaker 2: I believe it's his son that is the coach of
49:21
Speaker 2: Colorado State. You can correct me if I'm wrong. I
49:23
Speaker 2: know some guy named Jim Mora is their coach now.
49:26
Speaker 2: I can tell you that. But there's going to be
49:27
Speaker 2: a lot of turnover at Colorado State here, which I
49:32
Speaker 2: don't think is going to work out well immediately, at least.
49:34
Speaker 2: They're only bringing back four starters today. Wyoming is only
49:38
Speaker 2: bringing back six, though, which does include running back Harris.
49:44
Speaker 2: I've definitely heard professional opinions on Wyoming in this game,
49:47
Speaker 2: so I will tell you that I don't really have
49:50
Speaker 2: a reason to disagree with them. A lot of it,
49:53
Speaker 2: like what I heard was mostly like power rating stuff.
49:55
Speaker 2: It was like, you know, VR, Ace, you know, Gianni
50:00
Speaker 2: the Greek, that guy. I like him, man. I mean, yeah,
50:03
Speaker 2: he mostly does market reading and power rating stuff. He's good,
50:06
Speaker 2: and he likes Wyoming in this one. I probably do
50:09
Speaker 2: as well. Colorado State, just more turnover there, man. More
50:14
Speaker 2: growing pains for Colorado State. Wyoming is getting the money,
50:17
Speaker 2: 56% of tickets, 71% of the cash on them. Colorado
50:20
Speaker 2: State open as a four-point favor, and it dropped to 3, 3.5%.
50:24
Speaker 2: If you want Wyoming, I would say you should get
50:26
Speaker 2: at least three on this, like at least get that
50:28
Speaker 2: key number three, which seems like it is pretty available.
50:31
Speaker 2: The money has come in on the under as well,
50:33
Speaker 2: and it's knocked this total all the way through the
50:36
Speaker 2: 47 down to 46.5%. So there is some real money,
50:39
Speaker 2: it looks like, on the under in this one as well.
50:41
Speaker 2: And that's kind of what you want when you're playing
50:42
Speaker 2: an underdog. You want an ugly, low scoring game. So
50:46
Speaker 2: you get the most advantage that you can out of
50:48
Speaker 2: those points. But when you're taking a plus three dog,
50:51
Speaker 2: you're pretty much saying you think they're going to win.
50:52
Speaker 2: So I don't have much else going on with that one,
50:56
Speaker 2: but listening to professionals and power rating guys and whatever,
51:00
Speaker 2: and knowing that there's more turnover there on Colorado state
51:03
Speaker 2: with the, uh, Coaching change and whatever. Yeah, I would
51:06
Speaker 2: probably agree. I'd lean to Wyoming in that one. And
51:09
Speaker 2: these are two, it's a former Mountain West rivalry now
51:12
Speaker 2: as these teams are now in different conferences, I'm pretty sure.
51:16
Speaker 2: And Wyoming actually, maybe Wyoming gets a little bit extra
51:18
Speaker 2: up for that, right? Because I'm pretty sure Colorado State's
51:21
Speaker 2: in the Pac-12. Now, yeah, they are. And Wyoming, I believe,
51:24
Speaker 2: stayed in the Mountain West, right? Yes, so... Correct. So
51:28
Speaker 2: Wyoming might have a chip on their shoulder. Who the
51:30
Speaker 2: fuck are these Colorado State guys to move up to
51:33
Speaker 2: the Pac-12? So maybe Wyoming's like, yeah, fuck that. Go
51:39
Speaker 2: Mountain West. They might have a little bit of extra
51:41
Speaker 2: motivation for that reason. Number eight, Texas A & M
51:45
Speaker 2: hosting Missouri State. I don't know where our guy Justin
51:47
Speaker 2: is who does camera work in and around Missouri, and
51:51
Speaker 2: he's a Missouri State guy, I'm pretty sure. Not going
51:53
Speaker 2: to be easy at all for Missouri State to try
51:55
Speaker 2: to beat Texas A & M here, who I think
51:57
Speaker 2: is a legit team. Number eight in the country. They
52:00
Speaker 2: have a good coach with Mike Alko. This game's on ESPN.
52:04
Speaker 2: I don't know why, because Texas A & M should
52:06
Speaker 2: win easily, and they're like a 40-something point favorite in
52:09
Speaker 2: this game. Texas A & M, they're bringing back their quarterback,
52:13
Speaker 2: Marcel Reed, who had a good season last year for
52:16
Speaker 2: the most part. They're bringing back nine starters. I like
52:19
Speaker 2: Texas A & M this year, if you saw my
52:21
Speaker 2: preview earlier. I think they're going to be solid, man.
52:24
Speaker 2: They're going to be a competitive team in the SEC.
52:27
Speaker 2: They're ranked eighth right now, and there is a reason
52:29
Speaker 2: for that. Of course, the rankings, you know, like you
52:32
Speaker 2: see what these rankings are to begin with. Of course,
52:35
Speaker 2: they're going to change, and some teams are going to underperform,
52:37
Speaker 2: and some teams are going to overperform. I think Texas
52:39
Speaker 2: A & M is good, though, and they're certainly way
52:43
Speaker 2: better than Missouri State. Missouri State only bringing back six–
52:48
Speaker 2: Six returning starters here, including this wide receiver, Jamari A. Robinson.
52:54
Speaker 2: How can you spell your name like that, man? Jamari A. Yeah,
52:57
Speaker 2: all right, whatever. Missouri State has a new coach, which
53:00
Speaker 2: is Casey Woods, who was the OC at SMU prior
53:04
Speaker 2: to this. So I don't know what that's going to do,
53:07
Speaker 2: but there will be some turnover there. So A &
53:09
Speaker 2: M does have a lot of continuity here. So A
53:12
Speaker 2: & M should win this one. But they're very public.
53:15
Speaker 2: 91% of tickets, only 90% of the cash. And then
53:18
Speaker 2: they opened 38.5. They moved up to 40.5. I'm not
53:21
Speaker 2: going to be laying 40.5 with a 53.5 point spread.
53:25
Speaker 2: You know what I mean? Not a lot of room
53:28
Speaker 2: for error in a spread like that. And, of course,
53:30
Speaker 2: like I said, a game like this, Texas A &
53:33
Speaker 2: M might just say whatever and just kind of put
53:36
Speaker 2: in some backups at the end. They do have kind
53:38
Speaker 2: of a big game next against Arizona State. That's at
53:40
Speaker 2: least against another power conference team. So they might start
53:43
Speaker 2: resting their guys a little early in this game if
53:45
Speaker 2: this game is out of hand. So there's definitely backdoor
53:48
Speaker 2: potential for Missouri State there. I don't want to do it.
53:52
Speaker 2: We did get a win with Missouri State last year,
53:54
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure, in their first FBS season. I believe
53:56
Speaker 2: it was last year when they were a big underdog
53:58
Speaker 2: at home against some power conference team. I can't remember who.
54:02
Speaker 2: I believe we got the win in that one. Although
54:03
Speaker 2: Missouri State looked like they were going to win that
54:05
Speaker 2: game for a while, and they did not, I don't believe,
54:07
Speaker 2: but they covered.
54:08
Speaker 5: All right.
54:10
Speaker 2: Like I said, I'm only focusing on FBS, FBS here.
54:12
Speaker 2: 7 p.m., we have our final play here. I'm only
54:16
Speaker 2: giving up two here. I go light in week one, man.
54:25
Speaker 2: And we're going to see if I have any on
54:26
Speaker 2: the Sunday and Monday card, which I'm going to cover
54:29
Speaker 2: those on the morning shows, though. We're going to take
54:32
Speaker 2: Arkansas State plus 11.5 against Memphis here. I think this
54:36
Speaker 2: is a sandwich spot. Now, normally I do say that
54:38
Speaker 2: the team with the game under their belt which is
54:42
Speaker 2: Memphis in this case. They have momentum, and Arkansas State
54:45
Speaker 2: has to come into this game cold. Yeah, but the
54:47
Speaker 2: problem is Memphis, they were just out in the Pacific
54:50
Speaker 2: time zone. They had a big TV game, which was
54:53
Speaker 2: one of the big, that was like the big primetime
54:55
Speaker 2: game of week zero. I said that I leaned to
54:58
Speaker 2: Memphis in that game. They upset UNLV. A good start
55:01
Speaker 2: for Memphis because Memphis brought in a new coach. And yes,
55:05
Speaker 2: it is good that they got a game under their belt.
55:08
Speaker 2: Charlie Huff is there. Now, he came in from Southern Miss,
55:10
Speaker 2: and he did bring a bunch of his guys with him.
55:13
Speaker 2: He's been really good. He's at his third team in
55:15
Speaker 2: three years after he was at Marshall, then Southern Miss,
55:18
Speaker 2: and he keeps taking all his guys with him. Yeah,
55:21
Speaker 2: that's good, and yeah, Memphis got that win. They got
55:24
Speaker 2: some momentum now, but the thing is, That was a
55:27
Speaker 2: big win. It was a big primetime win. It was
55:29
Speaker 2: an upset against UNLV, who's supposed to win the Mountain West.
55:32
Speaker 2: Now Memphis comes back home, and yes, I realize this
55:34
Speaker 2: is their home opener. We're fading two teams in their
55:36
Speaker 2: home openers. Look at who they have on deck next week, though.
55:40
Speaker 2: They got to go back out west and play Boise.
55:43
Speaker 2: That's another big game, dude. The team that won the
55:45
Speaker 2: Mountain West last year. So it's a Mountain West sandwich here, basically.
55:48
Speaker 2: Although Boise's in the Pac-12 now. But it's a... What
55:53
Speaker 2: kind of sandwiches do they eat in the Mountain West,
55:56
Speaker 2: in the Pacific Northwest? I don't fucking know, but whatever
55:59
Speaker 2: the hell it is. Or I guess in the Pacific
56:00
Speaker 2: time zone, because it's UNLV. Actually, Boise's in the Mountain
56:05
Speaker 2: time zone, I'm pretty sure, but some parts of Idaho
56:07
Speaker 2: are in the Pacific time zone. I think Boise is
56:10
Speaker 2: a little bit further east, but whatever. That's a big
56:14
Speaker 2: game coming up next. Arkansas State... I think they consider
56:17
Speaker 2: themselves to be a little bit of a little brother
56:19
Speaker 2: to Memphis, because Memphis is right on the Arkansas border,
56:22
Speaker 2: if I'm not mistaken. So Arkansas State's not that far away,
56:25
Speaker 2: and I think they consider themselves to be a little
56:27
Speaker 2: brother here of sorts. I think Arkansas State's definitely going
56:32
Speaker 2: to be motivated here for this game, and you're going
56:34
Speaker 2: to still get some growing pains here with the coaching
56:38
Speaker 2: replacement at Memphis, whereas Arkansas State does not have a
56:41
Speaker 2: coaching change. And, in fact, Memphis only had one returning starter. And, yes,
56:46
Speaker 2: it is good that they got a game under their belt.
56:48
Speaker 2: And they have continuity with some of the guys from
56:50
Speaker 2: Southern Miss still there with Huff now. But Arkansas State's
56:54
Speaker 2: returning 10 starters, man. Now, they're not returning their QB,
56:57
Speaker 2: but they're returning seven guys on offense and three on defense. Basically,
57:01
Speaker 2: their whole offensive line coming back pretty much. So they
57:04
Speaker 2: should have some continuity here. So I like that.
57:07
Speaker 3: And.
57:08
Speaker 2: Yeah, a game like this where Memphis has this game
57:11
Speaker 2: surrounded by bigger games is the only sandwich spot of
57:13
Speaker 2: the week, so I think we just have to do it.
57:16
Speaker 2: The money seems to agree. 52% of tickets, 58% of
57:18
Speaker 2: the cash on Arkansas State. Money coming in on the under,
57:22
Speaker 2: which I think is a good sign for playing the
57:24
Speaker 2: underdog as well because you want that. You want it
57:27
Speaker 2: to be lower scoring when you're taking a double-digit dog.
57:31
Speaker 2: It'll help them stay in the game if the game's uglier.
57:34
Speaker 2: It's around 10.5 to 11.5 here. The line hasn't moved
57:37
Speaker 2: a whole lot, but there's not a huge difference between 10.5, 11, 11.5,
57:41
Speaker 2: as long as you're above, like 10.5 or better. You
57:45
Speaker 2: know what I mean? Make sure you get at least 10.5
57:47
Speaker 2: because the key number is 10 there. That's what I got.
57:51
Speaker 2: The total's not too high in this game at 52.5,
57:53
Speaker 2: but yeah, I like Arkansas State. I think it's a
57:55
Speaker 2: sandwich spot for Memphis. So that's my only other play there.
57:59
Speaker 2: We have one in the noontime slate and one in
58:02
Speaker 2: the evening slate. How many more games do I got
58:05
Speaker 2: to talk about here? I'm skipping some of these games
58:08
Speaker 2: that are kind of less interesting here. You know, I mean,
58:11
Speaker 2: you have FIU against South Florida. I mean, I don't know.
58:14
Speaker 2: South Florida is a double-digit favorite. South Florida's got a
58:16
Speaker 2: new coach and a new QB there now. I think
58:19
Speaker 2: both teams have a ton of turnover there. FIU considers
58:22
Speaker 2: themselves to be the little brother against South Florida. South
58:25
Speaker 2: Florida's very public because, you remember, South Florida was hot
58:29
Speaker 2: last year, and they almost won their conference. They had
58:31
Speaker 2: a chance to make the playoff for a while last year.
58:33
Speaker 2: 89% of tickets, 90% of the cash on South Florida.
58:37
Speaker 2: They're up to minus 14.5 from minus 12.5. So if
58:39
Speaker 2: you do like FIU, you're getting, it went through that
58:44
Speaker 2: key number of 14. You're getting a pretty good number
58:46
Speaker 2: on that above the 14.5. I don't think I want
58:49
Speaker 2: to do it. I mean, both teams are having a
58:51
Speaker 2: bunch of turnover there, so that could be a little
58:53
Speaker 2: bit of a chaotic game, but it is little brother
58:55
Speaker 2: versus big brother there. What else do we have here?
58:59
Speaker 2: If you want me to talk about some of these
59:00
Speaker 2: other FPS games or whatever, I can, but I want
59:04
Speaker 2: to get this show done before it's too late. Some
59:07
Speaker 2: of these shows are going to get way longer. Uh,
59:10
Speaker 2: one of the big games, basically the big primetime game
59:12
Speaker 2: of the night is Clemson LSU, the battle of death Valley,
59:15
Speaker 2: because both of these teams call their home stadium death Valley.
59:19
Speaker 2: Who's the real death Valley. I mean, I'm not a huge,
59:23
Speaker 2: I'm not an LSU fan, but I, I do have
59:26
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow on my fantasy team this year though. But
59:28
Speaker 2: I think, um, LSU is probably the real Death Valley. Sorry, Clemson,
59:32
Speaker 2: but LSU's just got the better history, and they're a very,
59:36
Speaker 2: very hard team to beat in primetime night games at home,
59:39
Speaker 2: and that is what LSU is doing here. They're number
59:42
Speaker 2: 11 in the country. They're a double-digit favorite here. This
59:45
Speaker 2: game's on ABC. I kind of like LSU in this one.
59:49
Speaker 2: The money's not agreeing with that. 70% of tickets, 53%
59:51
Speaker 2: of the cash on LSU. They dropped from an 11-point
59:56
Speaker 2: favorite down to a 10-point favorite. So if you do
59:58
Speaker 2: like LSU, you get to lay about 10 here. So
1:00:01
Speaker 2: below that key number of 10.5, so that's good if
1:00:04
Speaker 2: you do like them. Money is coming in on the under.
1:00:06
Speaker 2: The under does make some sense to me here because
1:00:08
Speaker 2: there is going to be a bunch of turnover with
1:00:11
Speaker 2: these two teams. LSU is bringing back eight starters, two
1:00:14
Speaker 2: running backs, which isn't too bad. And I think they're
1:00:17
Speaker 2: kind of reloading on defense. And I believe LSU has
1:00:21
Speaker 2: a couple of guys on the defense that– I guess
1:00:24
Speaker 2: some rule change happened, and they initially went into the NFL.
1:00:30
Speaker 2: They didn't make it on whatever NFL teams they were
1:00:33
Speaker 2: trying to make. They got cut or whatever during the preseason,
1:00:37
Speaker 2: and now they're trying to come back to LSU, and
1:00:39
Speaker 2: I guess there's some rule stuff going on. We're like,
1:00:42
Speaker 2: do the rules allow that? Do they not? And there
1:00:44
Speaker 2: are people that don't like that, but I'm like, I
1:00:46
Speaker 2: don't know, man. I mean, if they were just there
1:00:50
Speaker 2: at LSU and they tried to, join the NFL like
1:00:53
Speaker 2: before the rule change and they didn't make those teams.
1:00:56
Speaker 2: I mean, who cares? Whatever. Let them play another year
1:00:58
Speaker 2: at LSU. I mean, it's not like they were playing
1:01:01
Speaker 2: in the NFL for any period of time, really. So
1:01:03
Speaker 2: they played a little bit in the preseason and whatever. So,
1:01:07
Speaker 2: you know, if they come back, that might stack LSU's
1:01:09
Speaker 2: defense a little bit more. Of course, LSU is bringing
1:01:11
Speaker 2: over Lane Kiffin as their new coach after they fired
1:01:14
Speaker 2: Brian Kelly, who was definitely a failure. I don't think
1:01:17
Speaker 2: Brian Kelly's a good coach, man. Like, he's never going
1:01:21
Speaker 2: to win a championship. He's not even coaching anymore. He's
1:01:23
Speaker 2: a commentator now, and he sucks, by the way. I
1:01:26
Speaker 2: don't know if you saw any of what he did
1:01:27
Speaker 2: last week as a commentator. Pretty much unlistenable. But Lane
1:01:32
Speaker 2: Kiffin will be there, and it's this weird thing because
1:01:34
Speaker 2: I think– one of the weeks guys, I think wit weeks.
1:01:38
Speaker 2: Cause there were three of them that are all brothers
1:01:40
Speaker 2: on LSU. I think, I think it is wit who's
1:01:41
Speaker 2: dating Lane Kiffin's daughter. If that's still going, I don't know.
1:01:44
Speaker 2: And then that report just came out recently about how
1:01:47
Speaker 2: Lane Kiffin is like a total dog. And like, whenever
1:01:50
Speaker 2: he goes to a new place, he just starts like
1:01:52
Speaker 2: hitting up the bars and like looking for women and whatever. Um,
1:01:57
Speaker 2: could you please direct me to the, in the direction
1:01:59
Speaker 2: of the hotties or I don't know, whatever the quote
1:02:02
Speaker 2: was there. Um, Point me in the direction of the Ahadis, please.
1:02:06
Speaker 2: I'm like, yeah, okay. I mean, I don't know, man.
1:02:09
Speaker 2: I'm like, all right. Good for Lane Kiffin, I guess, maybe.
1:02:13
Speaker 2: I don't know. He likes the young women, I guess. Whatever.
1:02:20
Speaker 2: Who doesn't? He was already known for that anyway, so whatever. But, yes,
1:02:25
Speaker 2: we'll see what he can do at LSU. He should
1:02:27
Speaker 2: improve their offense, you would think. But they are having
1:02:31
Speaker 2: some turnover here. Of course, we do know that LSU quarterback,
1:02:34
Speaker 2: they're bringing in Sam Levitt from Arizona State. The question is,
1:02:37
Speaker 2: is he going to be able to handle the defenses
1:02:40
Speaker 2: of the SEC? Because he was playing at Arizona State
1:02:42
Speaker 2: in the Big 12. It'll be a step up for him,
1:02:45
Speaker 2: but he's facing Clemson here, who is not an SEC defense.
1:02:49
Speaker 2: We'll see. But it was one of the highest touted transfers,
1:02:56
Speaker 2: or whatever you want to call it, in the entire
1:02:58
Speaker 2: transfer class. We'll see what Levitt can do, but I
1:03:01
Speaker 2: guess the thought is that LSU should be very good
1:03:04
Speaker 2: offensively once they get going this year. Clemson, they bring
1:03:09
Speaker 2: back eight starters. They've really struggled the last couple years, man.
1:03:12
Speaker 2: Dabo Sweeney's still coaching that team. They've had some down seasons, though, man.
1:03:17
Speaker 2: They brought back a lot of starters last year, and
1:03:18
Speaker 2: it was not good. They didn't do well. I don't know, man. Yeah,
1:03:24
Speaker 2: I don't know what to say about this game. I mean,
1:03:27
Speaker 2: it could be an under. I mean, it Last year,
1:03:29
Speaker 2: I think it was a low-scoring game. These teams, I think,
1:03:32
Speaker 2: tend to play a little bit better defensively and keep
1:03:35
Speaker 2: it a little bit close to the vest in a
1:03:36
Speaker 2: game like this. I'd probably still slightly lean towards LSU, though,
1:03:41
Speaker 2: although the money's disagreeing with me, but I don't know, man.
1:03:44
Speaker 2: I mean, I think... It seems like Clemson... Also, it
1:03:47
Speaker 2: seems like Sweeney just doesn't hit the transfer portal. I
1:03:49
Speaker 2: don't know if he does now, but that was, like,
1:03:51
Speaker 2: his thing. No transfers. You know, I want to build
1:03:53
Speaker 2: from within, which.
1:03:56
Speaker 2: That kind of puts you at a step behind some
1:03:57
Speaker 2: of these other schools. So maybe that had something to
1:03:59
Speaker 2: do with Clemson not being that good the last couple
1:04:02
Speaker 2: of years. I don't know. I think I would slightly
1:04:04
Speaker 2: lean LSU. Both these teams were disappointing last year.
1:04:08
Speaker 3: All right.
1:04:10
Speaker 2: But the money is disagreeing with that. NBC, 7.30 p.m.
1:04:13
Speaker 2: Little brother, big brother. Western Michigan and Michigan, number 16. Michigan,
1:04:19
Speaker 2: of course, they're bringing in a new coach, Kyle Whittingham
1:04:21
Speaker 2: from Utah. He was really good at Utah, and he
1:04:25
Speaker 2: was there for a long time. It's a good coaching hire,
1:04:27
Speaker 2: in my opinion. Of course, Michigan basically only had to
1:04:29
Speaker 2: do that because their coach– what was it? Like he,
1:04:34
Speaker 2: he was cheating, right? He was having an affair or
1:04:36
Speaker 2: whatever with a staffer. And then he broke into that
1:04:39
Speaker 2: staffer's house to try to steal evidence of their affair
1:04:44
Speaker 2: or something. You guys remember this? Something insane. He got
1:04:46
Speaker 2: fired for it. And then Michigan, that was right before
1:04:49
Speaker 2: the bowl game. And Michigan had that morbidly obese, uh,
1:04:53
Speaker 2: coach filling in. Um, I don't know if he's still
1:04:56
Speaker 2: on the coaching staff, but whatever. Um, the guy's name
1:04:58
Speaker 2: was Biff, if I remember correctly. Um, Great name. Only
1:05:03
Speaker 2: in Back to the Future and in the Hardy Boys.
1:05:05
Speaker 2: Those are the only places where you get a biff,
1:05:08
Speaker 2: besides Michigan, apparently. But yeah, Michigan, Kyle Whittingham, it's a
1:05:12
Speaker 2: good hire, in my opinion. They're going to be good.
1:05:15
Speaker 2: How good are they going to be in this game, though?
1:05:17
Speaker 3: I don't know.
1:05:17
Speaker 2: Both of these teams have a lot of returning starters.
1:05:20
Speaker 2: Michigan has 10, including Bryce Underwood, their quarterback, who I
1:05:23
Speaker 2: believe was a freshman last year. So he has a
1:05:26
Speaker 2: year under his belt. He should improve. They're bringing back
1:05:28
Speaker 2: seven guys on offense. So Michigan's offense... is going to
1:05:32
Speaker 2: have continuity. But Western Michigan, I told you I like
1:05:35
Speaker 2: them in the MAAC this year. They're bringing back 11 starters,
1:05:39
Speaker 2: including their entire secondary and seven offensive players, including Brock Lowry,
1:05:44
Speaker 2: their quarterback. I like Western Michigan in this game, man.
1:05:48
Speaker 2: I mean, I kind of like what they're going to
1:05:49
Speaker 2: do in the MAAC this season, potentially. But I think
1:05:53
Speaker 2: they're going to get up for this game because it's
1:05:54
Speaker 2: little brother, big brother. Michigan might pack it in early
1:05:58
Speaker 2: because Michigan has to play Oklahoma in week two. So
1:06:01
Speaker 2: that's a big game coming up for Michigan after this.
1:06:04
Speaker 2: Michigan and Oklahoma seem to always play early in the
1:06:06
Speaker 2: season now for whatever reason. So Michigan, you know, if
1:06:09
Speaker 2: they have a big lead towards the end of the
1:06:10
Speaker 2: game or whatever, they might pack it in early. Michigan's
1:06:13
Speaker 2: a public team, 87% of tickets, 78% of the cash
1:06:16
Speaker 2: on them. So the money is indicating towards Western Michigan.
1:06:19
Speaker 2: Money coming in on the under as well. The total
1:06:22
Speaker 2: is also really low, although it initially went up from 47.5
1:06:24
Speaker 2: to 49.5. Yeah. You know what I always say, when
1:06:28
Speaker 2: the total's that low, I like taking the points. That's
1:06:31
Speaker 2: a lot of points to ask Michigan to lay with
1:06:33
Speaker 2: a total that's expected to be that low. Not a
1:06:36
Speaker 2: lot of room there for Michigan to cover that spread,
1:06:38
Speaker 2: so it means the points are going to be more
1:06:40
Speaker 2: at a premium. Points are worth more. You get a
1:06:43
Speaker 2: bunch of them with Western Michigan. The line went up
1:06:46
Speaker 2: from 26.5 to 27.5, so you're getting that key number, 27.5.
1:06:50
Speaker 2: It's a good number. If you like Western Michigan, that
1:06:53
Speaker 2: is what I would do if I was going to
1:06:54
Speaker 2: play this game. I would take the points with Western Michigan,
1:06:57
Speaker 2: and I believe the backdoor will be open. If Michigan
1:07:01
Speaker 2: starts putting in their backups or whatever, and again, they
1:07:04
Speaker 2: might go a little bit vanilla because they want to
1:07:06
Speaker 2: Keep some things hidden and not on tape for their
1:07:10
Speaker 2: game against Oklahoma next. So that's what I got to
1:07:15
Speaker 2: say about that game. I would lean to Western Michigan
1:07:17
Speaker 2: plus the points in that one. I like that one.
1:07:20
Speaker 2: I mean, that one was somewhat close to making the
1:07:22
Speaker 2: cut for me. ESPNU has UL Monroe against Mississippi State.
1:07:28
Speaker 2: Mississippi State's a huge favorite. They better get this win
1:07:31
Speaker 2: because they're going to struggle again in the SEC this year.
1:07:34
Speaker 2: There's not a lot to say about this game. ULM
1:07:37
Speaker 2: only has four returning starters, although one of them is
1:07:39
Speaker 2: their quarterback, Armenta. But I don't know how much that's
1:07:42
Speaker 2: going to help. The Mississippi State is bringing back eight starters,
1:07:45
Speaker 2: including a bunch of their defense players. I thought Mississippi
1:07:48
Speaker 2: State would kind of re-improve again at some point. Their
1:07:52
Speaker 2: current coach, I think, might be in his third year now.
1:07:54
Speaker 2: I'm not sure, though. And usually teams do take a
1:07:57
Speaker 2: step forward when that happens. I don't know if Mississippi
1:07:59
Speaker 2: State's good enough, but I don't have a whole lot
1:08:01
Speaker 2: on this game. Mississippi State's extremely public, 94% of tickets
1:08:06
Speaker 2: and cash. Yoel Monroe was pretty ass last year, if
1:08:09
Speaker 2: I remember correctly. But you're asking Mississippi State to cover
1:08:12
Speaker 2: a 28.5. I think they do have another easy game next,
1:08:16
Speaker 2: like another cupcake or whatever. They should win. I mean,
1:08:19
Speaker 2: they better win for their sake, but I don't think
1:08:21
Speaker 2: I'd lay the points with them in that one, but
1:08:23
Speaker 2: I don't really want any part of you all Monroe
1:08:25
Speaker 2: either in that one. So yeah, it's an ugly game.
1:08:28
Speaker 2: I mean, the fact that it's televised is just, uh,
1:08:32
Speaker 2: it's because there are so many games televised, man. Florida
1:08:35
Speaker 2: Atlantic at Florida is actually a little interesting in the SEC. Florida,
1:08:39
Speaker 2: as we know, they have a new coach, which is
1:08:42
Speaker 2: Pat Sumrall. Is that his name? Pat Sumrall? John Sumrall.
1:08:47
Speaker 2: I was thinking of Pat Sumrall, the commentator who was
1:08:50
Speaker 2: with John Madden, Madden and Summerall RIP man John Summerall
1:08:56
Speaker 2: is the new coach for Florida not Summerall he's they're
1:08:59
Speaker 2: not related he's coming in from Tulane he did a
1:09:01
Speaker 2: good job at Tulane and that's why he's coming in
1:09:03
Speaker 2: with Florida but it's gonna be his first year with
1:09:05
Speaker 2: Florida they're losing Lagway their quarterback so what is Florida
1:09:09
Speaker 2: gonna be able to do here I don't know honestly
1:09:14
Speaker 2: Their quarterback is going to be Aaron Filo, who I
1:09:16
Speaker 2: don't know much about him. I think there's going to
1:09:19
Speaker 2: be growing pains here with Florida again, man. They need
1:09:22
Speaker 2: to take a step up and improve again. I don't
1:09:24
Speaker 2: know if it's going to happen in week one against
1:09:26
Speaker 2: an FAU team that is going to want this game
1:09:28
Speaker 2: because they're a little brother, FAU. Florida, they have nine
1:09:34
Speaker 2: returning starters, so that's not too bad for Florida. A
1:09:37
Speaker 2: mix of offense and defense there.
1:09:39
Speaker 5: FAU.
1:09:42
Speaker 2: He's bringing back 11, though, including Veltkamp, their quarterback, who's
1:09:45
Speaker 2: been around for a while, and a bunch of guys
1:09:47
Speaker 2: on defense. So FAU has a lot of continuity here,
1:09:50
Speaker 2: a lot of returning starters. So I do like FAU,
1:09:53
Speaker 2: plus the points in that one. And who's Florida playing next?
1:09:56
Speaker 2: Are they playing anybody big next? Let me refresh my memory. No,
1:10:00
Speaker 2: they're not. Week one, like I said, it's always really tough, man,
1:10:03
Speaker 2: to pick your spots, for me at least, with the
1:10:07
Speaker 2: way that I handicap.
1:10:09
Speaker 3: Awesome.
1:10:10
Speaker 2: I don't know how much I would read into what
1:10:12
Speaker 2: I'm saying here, but the money is agreeing with me
1:10:14
Speaker 2: on this. Yeah, there it is. 62% of the tickets
1:10:20
Speaker 2: are on Florida, and it looks like 59. No, that's
1:10:25
Speaker 2: the total. What am I looking at? Oh, we scrolled over.
1:10:27
Speaker 2: Fuck that. Hold on.
1:10:29
Speaker 5: What?
1:10:30
Speaker 2: The whole thing just scrolled. I don't know what the
1:10:32
Speaker 2: fuck that was.
1:10:34
Speaker 4: I hate it.
1:10:35
Speaker 2: No.
1:10:37
Speaker 4: No.
1:10:38
Speaker 2: Florida Atlantic, right? I almost said Florida State. They're playing on...
1:10:42
Speaker 2: What the hell? Oh, I need to go to... Fuck, dude.
1:10:45
Speaker 2: I apologize. I need to go to... The college football slate.
1:10:51
Speaker 5: Oh, no.
1:10:51
Speaker 2: I guess it's just fucked up.
1:10:53
Speaker 3: I guess.
1:10:54
Speaker 2: I was like... 59 was the opening total. So the
1:10:58
Speaker 2: percentages are just fucked up. Or no, the whole site
1:11:01
Speaker 2: is fucked up right now. The whole table's fucked. What
1:11:04
Speaker 2: are we doing here, man? Anyway... I believe the money
1:11:07
Speaker 2: was indicating on FAU. I don't see it right now,
1:11:11
Speaker 2: but that's the way I would lean there. I would
1:11:13
Speaker 2: take the 26.5. I don't think it's going to get
1:11:16
Speaker 2: to that key number. It might get to the key
1:11:18
Speaker 2: number of 27.5, but it's a little brother situation. FAU
1:11:21
Speaker 2: has more returning starters, more continuity. Florida's going to have
1:11:25
Speaker 2: to get used to a new coach there, new system,
1:11:27
Speaker 2: new quarterback. So I would lean FAU plus the points there.
1:11:31
Speaker 5: All right.
1:11:32
Speaker 2: Not too many games left to talk about here. UNLV
1:11:35
Speaker 2: and Hawaii, make sure I'm not skipping anything, but yeah,
1:11:41
Speaker 2: for the big games here. UNLV, Hawaii, and CW. UNLV
1:11:46
Speaker 2: does have a game under the belt, but both teams do.
1:11:49
Speaker 2: UNLV had that primetime loss to Memphis, and now they're
1:11:52
Speaker 2: going out to Hawaii, and it is always tough to
1:11:54
Speaker 2: go out to Hawaii. These teams are not used to it.
1:11:56
Speaker 2: Hawaii is, of course, used to this type of travel.
1:11:59
Speaker 2: Hawaii just lost on the mainland in that crazy game
1:12:02
Speaker 2: against Stanford. I don't know if I really necessarily want Hawaii,
1:12:05
Speaker 2: because I don't really love playing on teams that almost
1:12:08
Speaker 2: pull off an upset like that, and now they're returning home,
1:12:10
Speaker 2: but it is their home opener, and UNLV... You know,
1:12:15
Speaker 2: it's just a tough travel spot for them. You know
1:12:17
Speaker 2: what I mean? And going out to play, you know,
1:12:20
Speaker 2: it's going to be a pretty late game out there.
1:12:22
Speaker 2: I know they're a Pacific time zone team, so it's
1:12:24
Speaker 2: going to be... The games in Hawaii get shifted, so
1:12:27
Speaker 2: they're a little bit earlier. Sometimes they do have to
1:12:29
Speaker 2: play at midnight Eastern, but in this case, it's 10 p.m. Eastern.
1:12:34
Speaker 2: So it'll still be like UNLV's playing a 7 p.m.
1:12:36
Speaker 2: game their time, so it won't really hurt them that much.
1:12:40
Speaker 2: But I kind of like Hawaii in this one. UNLV,
1:12:43
Speaker 2: I don't know. They do have a game against North
1:12:44
Speaker 2: Texas after this. I don't know if that's that big
1:12:46
Speaker 2: of a deal. But they're coming off a tough game
1:12:48
Speaker 2: against– both teams coming off tough games. But UNLV off
1:12:52
Speaker 2: of that primetime one, I don't know. Hawaii, more used
1:12:55
Speaker 2: to that travel back home and whatever. Hawaii tends to
1:12:57
Speaker 2: be a bit better at home. I'm going to slightly
1:13:00
Speaker 2: lean Hawaii here. But I don't really love the spot
1:13:02
Speaker 2: that either team is in. Let me hide that. Again,
1:13:06
Speaker 2: we can't see the percentages, so I apologize for that.
1:13:09
Speaker 2: Maybe this website should apologize, man. Unless, can I just... Oh,
1:13:16
Speaker 2: that's weird. If I just move it over, I guess
1:13:17
Speaker 2: I can see it again. What's going on, dude? Because
1:13:20
Speaker 2: it's like, I can't scroll over, I don't think. So
1:13:23
Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on with the site right now,
1:13:25
Speaker 2: but you can see Hawaii looks like 51% of tickets,
1:13:30
Speaker 2: 75% of the cash on Hawaii. So Hawaii does look
1:13:33
Speaker 2: like they are the... They're the side according to the money.
1:13:37
Speaker 2: It initially went up from UNLV minus one and a
1:13:39
Speaker 2: half up to three and a half. So the line
1:13:41
Speaker 2: initially did move up on UNLV, but if you want
1:13:43
Speaker 2: Hawaii right now, you can get them plus three and
1:13:45
Speaker 2: a half. So I do kind of like that. And then, yeah,
1:13:50
Speaker 2: I mean, I like the market read on at least,
1:13:52
Speaker 2: plus you're getting a better number on Hawaii. So I
1:13:54
Speaker 2: would lean that way. But again, I don't like the
1:13:56
Speaker 2: spot for either team there. And what else do we
1:14:00
Speaker 2: have here? Oh, yeah, going back to the Florida-Atlantic game. Yeah,
1:14:04
Speaker 2: 77% of tickets, 62% of the cash on Florida. So
1:14:06
Speaker 2: the money does agree with me on FAU in that one.
1:14:09
Speaker 3: All right.
1:14:10
Speaker 2: Then we have UCLA and Cal, the Battle of Cal,
1:14:14
Speaker 2: the former Pac-12 matchup that's now Big Ten against ACC.
1:14:19
Speaker 2: This is on ESPN. Both teams in the Pacific time zone.
1:14:24
Speaker 2: I don't believe either team has played yet. Both teams
1:14:26
Speaker 2: have new coaches, so there's a lot of turnover going
1:14:29
Speaker 2: on here. UCLA is bringing back six starters. They are
1:14:32
Speaker 2: bringing back Iamaleva, however the hell you pronounce his name,
1:14:38
Speaker 2: the former Tennessee QB who was at UCLA last year, Nico.
1:14:43
Speaker 2: Let's just call him that. That's what I called him
1:14:44
Speaker 2: last year. I'm usually good at pronouncing names, too. I
1:14:53
Speaker 2: think that's right. I think I almost got it. I
1:14:56
Speaker 2: keep thinking there's an extra syllable in there. All right,
1:15:00
Speaker 2: we got it. They're bringing him back. How about that?
1:15:04
Speaker 2: So they do have continuity in that way, at least
1:15:06
Speaker 2: with their QB coming back. Cal is bringing back their
1:15:09
Speaker 2: quarterback as well, who has another Samoan, Hawaiian name, whatever.
1:15:14
Speaker 2: Saga Politelli. I think I got that one pretty much right.
1:15:17
Speaker 2: He's coming back for Cal. They're bringing back nine starters,
1:15:20
Speaker 2: six on the offense. So Cal should have some continuity.
1:15:23
Speaker 2: I believe Cal's coach is new again as well. Let
1:15:26
Speaker 2: me see. Yeah, Cal is bringing in Tosh Lupoi, who
1:15:31
Speaker 2: is the DC of Oregon. So He's a defensive-minded coach.
1:15:34
Speaker 2: I believe he used to be a linebacker on Cal
1:15:39
Speaker 2: back in the day. So he's definitely a defensive-minded coach.
1:15:42
Speaker 2: So he's going to be in there to try to
1:15:44
Speaker 2: improve Cal's defense. We'll see. So first-year coach there, but also, again, UCLA,
1:15:50
Speaker 2: first-year coach at their program as well. Bob Chesney coming
1:15:55
Speaker 2: in from JMU after I think he was only there
1:15:57
Speaker 2: for one year after Kurt Cignetti. So Chesney, is he overrated?
1:16:02
Speaker 2: I don't know. Because JMU was really good last year,
1:16:05
Speaker 2: we know, but Chesney basically inherited all the Kurt Cignetti stuff.
1:16:08
Speaker 2: So we're going to see how he does at UCLA, man.
1:16:11
Speaker 2: But there's a lot of turnover for both these teams here.
1:16:14
Speaker 2: So maybe an under makes the most sense in this game.
1:16:18
Speaker 2: Because both quarterbacks are coming back. You know what I mean?
1:16:22
Speaker 2: So I don't know if I love that, but they're
1:16:23
Speaker 2: going to have to learn a new system. It looks
1:16:26
Speaker 2: like 89% of tickets and 92% of the cash on
1:16:28
Speaker 2: the over. So it's a very public over. 53 and
1:16:32
Speaker 2: a half is the total there. Very public over. I
1:16:36
Speaker 2: kind of lean under. I don't love it because both
1:16:38
Speaker 2: QBs are coming back, but with new coaching, new systems, whatever,
1:16:43
Speaker 2: the offenses might start slow. And there was a big move,
1:16:46
Speaker 2: big money move towards UCLA. Cal opened a one and
1:16:50
Speaker 2: a half point favorite. And now UCLA is a two
1:16:52
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite. So there was definitely some
1:16:54
Speaker 2: money on UCLA and I, The question is, is that
1:16:57
Speaker 2: a real move? You know what I mean? So it
1:17:00
Speaker 2: could have been a fake move where guys actually want
1:17:01
Speaker 2: to come in and just take UCL or take Cal
1:17:04
Speaker 2: as an underdog after pushing the line. But to me,
1:17:06
Speaker 2: it looks like it was a real move because it's
1:17:08
Speaker 2: like guys don't usually do that when it's one and
1:17:11
Speaker 2: a half on one side. Like, what do you expect?
1:17:13
Speaker 2: You're going to be able to push it to one
1:17:15
Speaker 2: and a half, two and a half, although it's almost
1:17:16
Speaker 2: three now on the other side. But I don't think
1:17:19
Speaker 2: that's what you expect out of that. And I know
1:17:21
Speaker 2: there are some guys that like to play the middle
1:17:23
Speaker 2: type of thing, or the money line, money line type
1:17:26
Speaker 2: of bet where they take one team as an underdog,
1:17:29
Speaker 2: get the line pushed to the other so that the
1:17:31
Speaker 2: other team is an underdog and then play that team
1:17:33
Speaker 2: as the underdog as well. I don't think that's what's
1:17:35
Speaker 2: going on here. I think this was just a legitimate
1:17:37
Speaker 2: move towards UCLA. They got 63% of tickets, 66% of
1:17:41
Speaker 2: the cash on them. I actually don't like it though.
1:17:44
Speaker 2: I think, The Chesney thing I think might be overhyped
1:17:47
Speaker 2: a little bit. And Cal does have more returning production
1:17:50
Speaker 2: than UCLA does. I'm not sold on Nico as a
1:17:53
Speaker 2: quarterback either, so I don't know. I lean towards Cal
1:17:56
Speaker 2: in that game, so I kind of disagree with that
1:17:58
Speaker 2: initial move there. Not a strong opinion for me by
1:18:01
Speaker 2: any means. That's on ESPN late night. Oh, I skipped
1:18:05
Speaker 2: Central Michigan and New Mexico. My apologies. On Fox Sports 1,
1:18:09
Speaker 2: I like New Mexico in this one. It's a weird
1:18:13
Speaker 2: spot for Central Michigan to have to go play in Albuquerque,
1:18:16
Speaker 2: and it's high elevation, I'm pretty sure, too, in Albuquerque.
1:18:19
Speaker 2: So that's going to be a weird spot. Central Michigan,
1:18:22
Speaker 2: not a team that's used to high elevation like this,
1:18:24
Speaker 2: not used to a travel spot like this. Having to
1:18:26
Speaker 2: play a late-night game like this, I don't like it
1:18:29
Speaker 2: for Central Michigan. I like New Mexico. And as I
1:18:32
Speaker 2: talked about in my preview, New Mexico's bringing back a
1:18:35
Speaker 2: ton of starters. They're bringing back 14, which is tied
1:18:38
Speaker 2: for the second most, with Georgia, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon,
1:18:42
Speaker 2: Virginia Tech, and only behind USC. And this includes Jack Lane,
1:18:49
Speaker 2: not Jack Lillard. Jack Lane, quarterback for New Mexico. He's
1:18:54
Speaker 2: coming back. They're bringing back a lot of starters, man,
1:18:58
Speaker 2: including most of their offense. So New Mexico should be
1:19:00
Speaker 2: able to hit the ground running. There's a lot of
1:19:03
Speaker 2: continuity there. Central Michigan only has eight returning starters, not
1:19:08
Speaker 2: including their quarterback. They are bringing back six guys on
1:19:10
Speaker 2: the offense, though, including basically the entire offensive line. So
1:19:14
Speaker 2: we'll see. But given the travel spot, given the continuity,
1:19:18
Speaker 2: I like New Mexico in that game. And I like
1:19:20
Speaker 2: New Mexico in the bowl last year. And I don't remember.
1:19:23
Speaker 2: I think they barely, like they just failed to cover
1:19:27
Speaker 2: for us in their bowl, if I remember correctly. Central
1:19:29
Speaker 2: Michigan looks like they're a very public underdog. 92% of tickets,
1:19:33
Speaker 2: 87% of the cash on them. And you know, I
1:19:35
Speaker 2: always warn against public underdogs because basically you're playing on
1:19:40
Speaker 2: the better team and the public doesn't want them. You
1:19:43
Speaker 2: know what I mean? New Mexico has moved down from
1:19:45
Speaker 2: 12 and a half to 10 and a half. Now
1:19:47
Speaker 2: it seems like A big number, though. 10 to have 11.
1:19:50
Speaker 2: But that's why the public is not going to do it.
1:19:53
Speaker 2: The public's not going to lay double digits with New Mexico.
1:19:56
Speaker 2: They're not going to do it. But I also don't
1:19:58
Speaker 2: like that the total is 46.5, basically, here. It's a
1:20:01
Speaker 2: low total. So I don't love laying double digits with
1:20:04
Speaker 2: a low total. But it's an anti-public favorite here, man.
1:20:07
Speaker 2: You don't get those that often. A rare anti-public favorite.
1:20:09
Speaker 2: The situation, the continuity seems like it's right to favor
1:20:13
Speaker 2: New Mexico there. So I would lay it with New
1:20:15
Speaker 2: Mexico if I was going to play that one. I
1:20:18
Speaker 2: do kind of like that one. And then the last
1:20:21
Speaker 2: game on the board here, and I'll save Sunday, Monday
1:20:23
Speaker 2: for those days. We have some big games there, but
1:20:26
Speaker 2: we'll talk about those in the morning on those morning shows,
1:20:29
Speaker 2: I would say. Western Kentucky and Nevada is the last
1:20:33
Speaker 2: game tomorrow night on CBS Sports. And no midnight games
1:20:37
Speaker 2: that we have to worry about. This line has moved
1:20:40
Speaker 2: big time already. Western Kentucky opened a four-point favorite, and
1:20:44
Speaker 2: they dropped to a one-and-a-half-point favorite yesterday. I don't know
1:20:47
Speaker 2: why other than maybe that was real money. Western Kentucky
1:20:50
Speaker 2: is extremely public. 93% of tickets, 90% of the cash
1:20:54
Speaker 2: on them. So the market read is definitely saying Nevada.
1:20:56
Speaker 2: But if you like Nevada here, you already missed the boat.
1:20:59
Speaker 2: Like you could have gotten four, three and a half,
1:21:01
Speaker 2: three tickets. At one and a half, I don't think
1:21:04
Speaker 2: I'd really want to do it. You know what I mean?
1:21:05
Speaker 2: Just knowing that you missed all these better numbers. But
1:21:08
Speaker 2: it seems like that was a pretty big market move
1:21:10
Speaker 2: towards Nevada. And it's a weird spot for Western Kentucky
1:21:13
Speaker 2: to have to go out to Nevada, play in Reno,
1:21:16
Speaker 2: a very unfamiliar environment to have to go out there.
1:21:20
Speaker 2: Western Kentucky is not used to something like that. Western
1:21:24
Speaker 2: Kentucky has six returning starters, including their quarterback, Tisdale Jr.,
1:21:29
Speaker 2: but not a lot of returning production from them. Nevada
1:21:32
Speaker 2: only six as well, but that does include their quarterback,
1:21:34
Speaker 2: Carter Jones. So both teams have the same amount of
1:21:38
Speaker 2: returning production, basically. I don't believe either team's changing coaches
1:21:42
Speaker 2: or anything. To me, it's mostly the market Rita's saying, Nevada,
1:21:46
Speaker 2: and it's kind of a weird spot for Western Kentucky
1:21:48
Speaker 2: to have to go out there and also play a
1:21:50
Speaker 2: late-night game, Pacific Coast game that might mess with their
1:21:52
Speaker 2: biological clock. So I would agree and lean towards Nevada
1:21:57
Speaker 2: in that one. And that's finally going to do it, man.
1:21:59
Speaker 2: So my two plays I actually have here are Liberty
1:22:03
Speaker 2: with their returning production and fading the potentially overhyped James
1:22:07
Speaker 2: Madison in what I think will be a little brother,
1:22:10
Speaker 2: big brother situation. We'll take Liberty plus the points. And
1:22:13
Speaker 2: we'll take Arkansas State plus the points in what I
1:22:18
Speaker 2: think is a sandwich spot for Memphis. So those are
1:22:20
Speaker 2: my two actual plays. Yeah, let's get it done, man.
1:22:26
Speaker 2: Going a little bit light with week one, but you
1:22:27
Speaker 2: got some of my other leans there. All of my
1:22:30
Speaker 2: other leans, in fact, you got. So do what you
1:22:32
Speaker 2: want with all that info. That's going to do it.
1:22:35
Speaker 2: It's late. No sleep for me, man. That's going to
1:22:38
Speaker 2: do it. Football season just kills me Friday night, Saturday night.
1:22:43
Speaker 2: At least Saturday night, I have one more Saturday night
1:22:45
Speaker 2: where I don't have to do an NFL show, but
1:22:47
Speaker 2: that's coming. I got to talk to Clint about bald.
1:22:50
Speaker 2: So anyway, like subscribe to the channel here. Learn to
1:22:53
Speaker 2: tote on Twitter. You know the drill. Learn to tote
1:22:55
Speaker 2: on Instagram. Subscribe here on YouTube and you'll get notified
1:22:58
Speaker 2: when I go live. I got to talk to Clint
1:23:00
Speaker 2: about bald NFL preview. We'll need to do it one
1:23:03
Speaker 2: of the next three days because I'm not going to
1:23:05
Speaker 2: be here on Tuesday night. And the season starts on
1:23:07
Speaker 2: Wednesday now instead of Thursday, I'm pretty sure. So I
1:23:10
Speaker 2: hate all these new NFL scheduling things. And then there's
1:23:13
Speaker 2: like some ridiculous, I think, Australia international game is the
1:23:18
Speaker 2: Thursday night game now, which is on Netflix. Whatever, man.
1:23:22
Speaker 2: I think it's 49ers, Rams.
1:23:24
Speaker 5: Anyway.
1:23:26
Speaker 2: And the opening game is always the Super Bowl champ, Seahawks.
1:23:29
Speaker 2: But it's actually... rematch it's Seahawks uh Patriots anyway that's
1:23:34
Speaker 2: gonna do it uh listen on audio as well Apple
1:23:37
Speaker 2: Spotify Spreaker covered in you because my ukulele channel on
1:23:40
Speaker 2: YouTube you can check that out patreon.com slash learn to
1:23:43
Speaker 2: tote if you want to support me that way I'm
1:23:47
Speaker 2: forgetting something loser cast every Tuesday night and the g-spot
1:23:51
Speaker 2: podcast if it comes back for the NFL we'll see
1:23:55
Speaker 2: It's a lot of content I got to do, man,
1:23:57
Speaker 2: and for not a whole lot of gain. So hopefully
1:24:01
Speaker 2: I'm giving good information out here. Taking up my time, man.
1:24:05
Speaker 2: That's going to do it. I appreciate it, everybody. Thanks
1:24:07
Speaker 2: for hanging out. Late night. Peace.
1:24:12
Speaker 3: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
1:24:16
Speaker 2: Let somebody answer.
1:24:19
Speaker 3: Let somebody know you do not have to do it.
1:24:24
Speaker 4: Lose this round alone.
1:24:26
Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, not tonight. Not now Hold on, hold.
1:24:42
Speaker 1: On Let me.
1:24:43
Speaker 5: Pull you out That bad luck fights hard But it
1:24:51
Speaker 5: don't get.
1:24:53
Speaker 4: The crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now
1:25:03
Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo