Latest / International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better / Budapest or Bust: Corridors, Warrants, and Why Threatening Margarita Simonyan Won’t Silence a Room Built to End Wars

Transcript

Budapest or Bust: Corridors, Warrants, and Why Threatening Margarita Simonyan Won’t Silence a Room Built to End Wars · International Flavor: Where the Truth Tastes Better

• 0:00
  We interrupt this incredibly awesome music to bring
• 0:03
  you some incredibly awesome political talk on damn
• 0:07
  radio Hello, good evening Welcome.
• 0:12
  I am samuel trap.
• 0:14
  This is international flavor And i'm a tired
• 0:19
  tired Mofo for lack of a better word
• 0:23
  as we used to call each other in
• 0:25
  the army We didn't say the actual words
• 0:28
  you just hey mofo, so, you know that
• 0:30
  way you're not swearing, right?
• 0:32
  We weren't we weren't totally evil people right
• 0:36
  in the army We were just you know
• 0:38
  halftime bored, right?
• 0:40
  So you spent all your time hanging out
• 0:42
  in the motor pool until it was time
• 0:44
  to go somewhere and pretend you were going
• 0:46
  to war Of course, I was before I
• 0:48
  became the all-important interpreter then it was
• 0:52
  even worse We did nothing Except speak in
• 0:57
  Russian all day.
• 0:58
  Well, that was the easiest job on the
• 1:00
  planet I got to tell you what we
• 1:03
  had to do was wander around speak Russian.
• 1:05
  Well, maybe that is why I like to
• 1:07
  speak So much all the damn time Perhaps
• 1:12
  I got used to it in the armed
• 1:15
  forces If you feel like sending me interesting
• 1:20
  tidbits You can do so live at damn
• 1:24
  radio.com By email, I might even read
• 1:28
  them or you can send them to me
• 1:31
  Personally, it's Samuel T at international flavor calm
• 1:37
  You may phone in I shall allow it
• 1:40
  this evening 5 7 3 7 4 6
• 1:42
  8 0 2 0 I must admit to
• 1:46
  having truly enjoyed last night's program.
• 1:49
  Don't know why I just the topic got
• 1:52
  me all worked up and Afterward, I think
• 1:55
  I told you I was, you know halfway
• 1:57
  through and I finished my article in Russian
• 2:00
  on The same topic and then I sent
• 2:04
  it to the place where my prior article
• 2:07
  was published.
• 2:09
  I Got a response today And they said
• 2:13
  they do plan on publishing my article and
• 2:16
  it's gonna be put out in Ukraine And
• 2:20
  that is gonna go out sometime this week
• 2:23
  I assume and Then they asked me if
• 2:27
  I would be willing to be interviewed again
• 2:30
  No when I was in Russia, they asked
• 2:32
  me to come and I did an hour
• 2:34
  -long interview on Went into their TV studio.
• 2:38
  That was a lot of fun and got
• 2:39
  quizzed about you know, whatever Events of the
• 2:42
  day we're going on but I really had
• 2:45
  prepared You know, I did I was I
• 2:48
  gonna prepare for I don't know what they're
• 2:49
  gonna ask me.
• 2:50
  I didn't ask It's not like I do
• 2:52
  it all the time and I had met
• 2:54
  this the girl who was gonna interview me
• 2:56
  or the woman I'm sorry.
• 2:57
  She I met her at the BRICS conference
• 2:59
  in Kazan in 2024 and It was you
• 3:05
  know, I met her there.
• 3:06
  I got interviewed by her there.
• 3:08
  I got interviewed by several TV stations while
• 3:10
  I was there the funniest of which was
• 3:13
  the the one where the this Very hilarious
• 3:17
  girl was running around with a with a
• 3:21
  poster or a picture of like a 11
• 3:24
  by 17 framed picture of Vladimir Putin and
• 3:29
  She wanted me to you know Interview to
• 3:31
  talk to Putin It's actually pretty comical.
• 3:36
  She's asking me questions in Russian.
• 3:37
  It was actually turned out to be a
• 3:40
  pretty funny Segment there in Russian some crazy
• 3:44
  American over there speaking Russian to Vladimir Putin
• 3:47
  It was a picture of Vladimir Putin.
• 3:50
  Anyway, and anyway, it was pretty comical Anyway,
• 3:53
  the I got a I have been remiss
• 3:57
  in my duties because when I sent my
• 4:00
  article this morning I Was You know, I
• 4:06
  got a response back pretty quickly, you know
• 4:08
  said yeah, you know I sent it last
• 4:11
  night, you know by the time I got
• 4:12
  home and did all the Upload under an
• 4:15
  international flavor calm where all my shows are
• 4:17
  stored.
• 4:19
  I Put last night's program out there, which
• 4:21
  has also gotten a good number of views
• 4:25
  Or listens to I suppose you would call
• 4:27
  it By the time I got home uploaded
• 4:30
  it finished my article geez I went to
• 4:32
  bed at like 233 in the morning and
• 4:35
  then I was I woke up.
• 4:36
  I don't sleep.
• 4:37
  I'm the worst sleeper And I woke up
• 4:41
  at like 545 and so I I haven't
• 4:44
  slept But I got a response back so
• 4:49
  by the time I sent my my response
• 4:51
  out it was you know early early in
• 4:53
  the morning For us but for them afternoon
• 4:56
  and I got a response back, you know
• 4:59
  I'm pretty pretty pretty handily and said well,
• 5:02
  you you know, I've been sending you messages
• 5:04
  on telegram and You haven't responded.
• 5:08
  I'm glad you sent You know your article
• 5:11
  and yeah, well, well, you know, we plan
• 5:13
  to publish it, you know, and we want
• 5:16
  to interview you and They want to interview
• 5:19
  me about some of the things that are
• 5:21
  going on, you know They like to get
• 5:23
  an American perspective in Russian And so I've
• 5:26
  been pretty remiss in doing my Russian programming
• 5:30
  and I used to do pretty regularly my
• 5:34
  Russian video and I Need to set up
• 5:41
  a new video Studio, you know where I
• 5:44
  can do it.
• 5:45
  I was you know doing it in my
• 5:47
  car It was kind of fun and I
• 5:49
  liked it but but I got kind of
• 5:52
  burned out doing it that way and I
• 5:54
  would much rather have a more presentable and
• 5:58
  former formal Russian speaking Segments that I do,
• 6:04
  you know somewhere in neighborhood I don't know.
• 6:06
  It doesn't need to be longer than a
• 6:07
  half an hour in an hour or something
• 6:09
  like that Where I had to get on
• 6:10
  do the same thing I'm doing here But
• 6:12
  I do it in Russian and I want
• 6:14
  that to be on video so I can
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  put it on my youtube channel and I'm
• 6:18
  really posted anything on my youtube channel my
• 6:20
  Russian version anyway in a while and so
• 6:25
  But whenever they interview me I like they
• 6:27
  send me a copy and I can upload
• 6:29
  it to my to my youtube channel and
• 6:31
  I plan on putting Subtitles on it and
• 6:33
  and and I thought about send in and
• 6:35
  asking what?
• 6:39
  What questions they you know, what do you
• 6:41
  what do you want to talk about so
• 6:42
  I could prepare for it, but I don't
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  really care It's not gonna change what I
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  say I don't you know, it doesn't I
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  say what I say, you know And if
• 6:51
  I and if I don't know I said
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  well, I don't know, you know, and and
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  it doesn't really bother me but I suppose
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  if this is gonna be a you know,
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  if I'm gonna be Something referred to as
• 7:02
  a professional journalist or something.
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  I should probably prepare Especially going on live
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  TV well this one will be recorded but
• 7:11
  going on a live TV in front of
• 7:13
  a bunch of Russian people who would probably
• 7:15
  think I'm a nut in you know and
• 7:18
  and my Russian is good, but you know,
• 7:21
  I make mistakes and Russian is not easy
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  and but at the same time, you know,
• 7:27
  I know I'm understandable I know I communicate
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  over there pretty well.
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  I remember one time I was in one
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  of the sanatoriums over there and I'd been
• 7:34
  there I don't know been there probably a
• 7:36
  week by the time this happened and there
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  was a girl Who was always she sat
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  at the same table?
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  For for lunches, you know, you got these
• 7:45
  six-person tables or whatever where people are
• 7:47
  sitting She was always at the same one
• 7:49
  and you're not assigned places, but you know,
• 7:51
  that's where You know how it is you
• 7:54
  end up sitting the same place and she
• 7:55
  was sitting there and I ran into her
• 7:57
  in the elevator and so I said hello
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  to her and She says to me in
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  Russian.
• 8:03
  She says she says don't talk to me
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  Like why not?
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  She goes she goes.
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  I don't know.
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  I don't like your accent I was like,
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  well, you know, I suppose I was like
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  that was a little rude, you know And
• 8:18
  sometimes you hear that kind of thing And
• 8:22
  I remembered it from the 80s anyway when
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  We're 90s whenever we were there and people
• 8:28
  would go speak English, you know on them
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  in Texas, you know some some People speak
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  in Mexican or whatever and I kind of
• 8:35
  felt like wow I guess I get the
• 8:40
  idea of being an immigrant and And I
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  wasn't but I mean anyway, I don't know
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  where I'm going with all that stupidity tonight
• 8:46
  But I'm wondering if maybe I should Prepare
• 8:50
  for that When I When I Get interviewed
• 8:59
  this coming week and We've already set a
• 9:03
  time.
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  I'll keep you posted on it and see
• 9:05
  what we're gonna do.
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  So many of you Talk know about the
• 9:11
  fights and there's some opinion pieces as I
• 9:14
  want to read tonight first I want to
• 9:15
  do a couple of News pieces and those
• 9:19
  of you who've listened to my show for
• 9:21
  a long time know that I listen to
• 9:25
  quite often or as often as I can
• 9:27
  a show by Vladimir Solovyov because I like
• 9:33
  to format and I've talked about it before
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  on quite a few occasions.
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  Well, there's a lady who interviews there and
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  I've talked about her show over the Over
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  the you know last year plus of my
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  of my show here and her name is
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  Margarita Simonyan and she Usually on Sundays was
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  on Solovyov show and she always got to
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  go first Solovyov's a gentleman and lets the
• 10:00
  women You know the women speak first before
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  he gets to the other to the other
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  people that speak and she is seated the
• 10:09
  rest of the men are standing right and
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  So he does his his monologue and then
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  he says Margarita Simonyan and he points at
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  her and she starts right and I always
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  enjoyed listening to her she Talks about poetry.
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  She speaks very well.
• 10:24
  She is is 45 and I was reading
• 10:27
  some some and I don't know how it
• 10:30
  came about but I was watching something and
• 10:34
  there's an assassination plot on her that they've
• 10:38
  been trying to kill her and Nonsense in
• 10:43
  in any country, you know, and the Ukrainians
• 10:46
  are allegedly behind it and The couple have
• 10:49
  been arrested and I'm going to share with
• 10:51
  you the the story about it in last
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  week was the 20th anniversary of RT news
• 10:59
  which she is the Editor-in-chief for
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  and has been for a long time She's
• 11:07
  Western educated been over and came to the
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  u.s. For a while to do some
• 11:12
  education.
• 11:13
  She's also under sanctions I talked about some
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  of the sanctions against her last year the
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  stupidity of the of our government our Attorney
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  General's office in many different areas in talking
• 11:30
  about Disinformation Misinformation all of this crap.
• 11:35
  All it is is news.
• 11:37
  You don't have to believe it I don't
• 11:39
  care if you believe it or not.
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  I read it.
• 11:42
  I'm not saying I believe all of it
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  I'm saying I read it because it's a
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  different perspective Obviously if you're an intelligent person,
• 11:50
  you're gonna get a different perspective from different
• 11:53
  places and that's what I do And so
• 11:56
  I've been talking about that and I've been
• 11:58
  doing it for a long Time and I
• 12:02
  try hard not to judge people, you know,
• 12:05
  I don't I don't give a crap your
• 12:06
  life is yours Mine is mine.
• 12:08
  I got my issues you have yours and
• 12:11
  I try hard not to judge people, you
• 12:14
  know What is that statement there?
• 12:16
  But for the grace of God go I
• 12:18
  write, you know How do you know how
• 12:22
  you would react to how somebody else is
• 12:24
  living their life and the situations that they've
• 12:27
  had and they're giving You know, they're growing
• 12:29
  up with like to think you're a good
• 12:31
  person, but a person is also impacted dramatically
• 12:35
  by the circumstances of their lives sometimes that
• 12:39
  they don't have a lot of control over
• 12:40
  and so Sometimes people end up making wrong
• 12:44
  choices.
• 12:44
  That's how it is.
• 12:45
  Sometimes people Have evil intent and I believe
• 12:49
  we got plenty of those in our political
• 12:51
  sphere here in the United States Did the
• 12:53
  same exist in every other country too?
• 12:56
  Likely, okay.
• 12:57
  Does that mean you shouldn't listen to them
• 12:59
  at all?
• 13:00
  No, listen to them make your choices, you
• 13:03
  know, and and you know, I believe the
• 13:05
  same for her But I like listening to
• 13:07
  her.
• 13:07
  She speaks well, you know, and then you
• 13:11
  know, I assume she she writes pretty well,
• 13:13
  too well while I was looking into where
• 13:18
  she's been because suddenly she's not been on
• 13:21
  the program for Quite a few months It's
• 13:26
  been a while and and you know every
• 13:28
  Sunday.
• 13:28
  I'm like man.
• 13:29
  I always like listening to her I still
• 13:31
  listen to other people, you know, I listen
• 13:33
  to the to the program as it goes
• 13:35
  because I like the opinions but come to
• 13:38
  find out she's been dealing with a husband
• 13:42
  who has had Several heart attacks has had
• 13:47
  issues and he's been in a coma the
• 13:49
  last four or five months and he passed
• 13:51
  away in late September and You know, there's
• 13:57
  some pretty nasty things being said about her
• 14:00
  and stuff that are going on.
• 14:01
  It's like man Like her dislike her doesn't
• 14:05
  matter respect.
• 14:07
  I Respect, you know, whatever her opinion is.
• 14:10
  I respect it.
• 14:11
  She argues her point she says what she
• 14:13
  means and and she puts it out in
• 14:15
  a An intelligent and reasonable light so I
• 14:19
  respect that right and and you have to
• 14:23
  respect that if Someone is well-spoken and
• 14:25
  can say what they mean and can tell
• 14:28
  you their point of view You don't have
• 14:29
  to agree with it.
• 14:30
  I mean who cares and so this is
• 14:32
  where I have a serious problem with all
• 14:34
  this Disinformation.
• 14:36
  Well last week where this a few days
• 14:38
  ago Putin gave a speech at the RT
• 14:42
  20th anniversary and he was on the same
• 14:45
  stage as her and he spoke about and
• 14:48
  and they've known each other for a long
• 14:50
  time and Well, she's been the head of
• 14:53
  RT and so they you know speak but
• 14:57
  together RT Is is part of the things
• 15:00
  that I wanted to go into tonight because
• 15:02
  we in America have this We're no better
• 15:07
  than any other country they're trying to limit
• 15:10
  what people can say here they're trying to
• 15:13
  limit, you know They call things disinformation.
• 15:16
  They're charging people with crimes.
• 15:18
  I read about some Agency, I forget the
• 15:21
  name of it today, but they have several
• 15:22
  of them they have some misinformation agency that's
• 15:27
  under the The whether it's the Defense Intelligence
• 15:31
  Agency or a different intelligence agency I forget
• 15:35
  but but they I had it pulled up
• 15:38
  I'm not gonna go look for it now
• 15:39
  because I have other things to talk about
• 15:41
  tonight, but This There's several of them.
• 15:46
  They built one of them for the defense
• 15:49
  one of them for the State Department in
• 15:51
  You know, I forget who Tulsi Gabbard said
• 15:56
  they were shutting it down I believe it
• 15:57
  was her that said they're shutting down theirs
• 15:59
  But this other agency is still alive and
• 16:02
  well and their goal is to combat mainly
• 16:06
  Russian Disinformation including Margarita Simeon and I told
• 16:11
  you about a good I don't know probably
• 16:14
  a year ago about the charges against RT
• 16:19
  Contributors the seizing of their property by our
• 16:23
  government because they have an opinion different and
• 16:27
  they were paying people to Broadcast stories Of
• 16:34
  what do you call it supportive of RT
• 16:37
  or supportive of RT's point of view certain
• 16:39
  podcast hosts and they were charging these Podcast
• 16:43
  hosts with putting them out there.
• 16:45
  So I'm sitting here reading sometimes RT stories
• 16:50
  This is such crap that they can come
• 16:53
  back and say that's these people and and
• 16:55
  what they did was they called it since
• 16:57
  she Was since they were paying these podcasts.
• 16:59
  Oh, it's a hundred thousand bucks or whatever
• 17:02
  Year or whatever they were getting paid who
• 17:04
  knows these were big-time podcasters that had
• 17:07
  lots of people and so Russia Russia today
• 17:11
  was paying these people to distribute or to
• 17:16
  Consider distribution of their content.
• 17:19
  They were putting it out And so what
• 17:21
  they did was they called it conspiracy and
• 17:24
  if you charge somebody with a conspiracy What
• 17:27
  can you do?
• 17:27
  You can seize their property and so what
• 17:31
  they were doing is confiscating their bank accounts
• 17:34
  confiscating their property and going in seizing properties
• 17:38
  of the Russian government or of Russian RT
• 17:41
  people at some sort of Sanction and taking
• 17:44
  their money taking their bank accounts taking their
• 17:47
  homes or property that they owned in the
• 17:49
  United States My view that's freaking un-american
• 17:53
  and I've been against it since I first
• 17:55
  heard about it now For for the purposes
• 17:59
  that they're saying conspiracy to provide disinformation to
• 18:06
  interfere with an election Okay, and what a
• 18:10
  load of crap No matter how you slice
• 18:13
  it And by the way, they don't have
• 18:14
  to prove anything because even before you ever
• 18:18
  have an appearance in front of the judge
• 18:20
  Guess what you get You get the Confiscation
• 18:24
  order you get the seizure of your property.
• 18:28
  That is just part of the deal You
• 18:30
  get a confiscate anything having to do with
• 18:33
  ill-gotten gains And they didn't take the
• 18:35
  hundred thousand from the podcasters They took the
• 18:38
  property of RT or of the people that
• 18:41
  worked for RT not the podcasters those guys
• 18:44
  They were like look you just shut your
• 18:46
  mouths and move out smartly and you know,
• 18:48
  I mean, this is our government people This
• 18:50
  is such crap what a load of crap
• 18:54
  and if you're supportive of that kind of
• 18:56
  thing Well, you're part of the problem.
• 18:59
  It's all I gotta say and you know
• 19:03
  people should be How in the world are
• 19:07
  words What in the world is?
• 19:12
  Misinformation disinformation and you always have to hear
• 19:14
  the word Russian in front of it, right?
• 19:16
  So Russian Disinformation all it is is contrary
• 19:23
  Information it's information from a different perspective From
• 19:28
  a different point of view you don't have
• 19:31
  to agree Nobody's requiring you to agree.
• 19:34
  Nobody even is requiring you to listen It's
• 19:38
  such crap and now we have an agency
• 19:42
  dedicated Dedicated to Russian Disinformation or people that
• 19:48
  spread Disinformation or misinformation on Facebook?
• 19:52
  What are we gonna end up like Europe,
• 19:54
  you know, you can't put anything on Facebook
• 19:56
  Are you gonna get arrested?
• 19:58
  Because you put something out there.
• 19:59
  I told you that when the when the
• 20:04
  February 24 of whatever it was 22 24
• 20:08
  of 2022 when Russia Went into the Donbass
• 20:15
  region and there were all these people with
• 20:17
  these Ukrainian flags all over their Facebook Nobody
• 20:20
  stopped them, but I put up on my
• 20:23
  Facebook a Russian flag Put a put a
• 20:25
  Russian flag on my Facebook.
• 20:27
  I put a letter Z on top of
• 20:29
  that and the Z for Za and za
• 20:33
  means for you know, and it would basically
• 20:36
  it's for Russia, basically And all I was
• 20:39
  doing was putting a different point of view
• 20:41
  out of there and saying if you believe
• 20:44
  what's going on in Ukraine it's just wrong
• 20:46
  and and our government is going to crazy
• 20:51
  lengths to silence people of a different opinion
• 20:56
  and It's been going on for far too
• 20:59
  long Nonsensical nonsense at any rate I wanted
• 21:03
  to share with you this to who were
• 21:05
  charged in an assassination plot against the RT
• 21:09
  chief these Two members of a neo-nazi
• 21:14
  group have been charged with planning to assassinate
• 21:18
  RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simeon the Russian
• 21:22
  investigative committee has put out The investigation into
• 21:26
  the case has been completed and handed over
• 21:29
  to prosecutors Simeon posted on X that she
• 21:32
  was thankful to those who prevented the planned
• 21:35
  attack My deepest gratitude to law enforcement officers
• 21:39
  for their work She said the assassination plot
• 21:42
  against the RT editor-in-chief Was prepared
• 21:46
  by members of a Moscow based cell of
• 21:49
  the banned National Socialism white power group according
• 21:54
  to the agency The cell called purebloods was
• 21:58
  set up in 2022 by a guy named
• 22:01
  Mikhail Balashov who recruited 11 people with National
• 22:06
  Socialist and racist views Additionally on the order
• 22:11
  of unidentified individuals Balashov and the cells other
• 22:16
  member eager several youth agreed to kill journalist
• 22:21
  Margarita Simeon for a cash reward of $50
• 22:25
  ,000 $50,000 They gathered data on the
• 22:29
  RT editor-in-chief's whereabouts and obtained the
• 22:32
  firearms But were detained by officers from Russia's
• 22:36
  Federal Security Service FSB before being able to
• 22:40
  carry out the murder Balashov and several youth
• 22:44
  have been charged with illegal possession of weapons
• 22:47
  in preparation for murder Together with other members
• 22:50
  of the cell they are accused of creating
• 22:53
  a terrorist group Hooliganism that I always loved
• 22:57
  that word hooligan stava.
• 22:58
  This is how it is in Russian hooligan
• 23:00
  stava and inciting hatred the agency said Earlier
• 23:05
  report suggested the hit on Simeon had been
• 23:08
  ordered by the Ukrainian Security Service DSP you
• 23:12
  in which in 2023 accused her of calling
• 23:16
  for mass killings of Ukrainian children That's absolutely
• 23:21
  untrue, but failed to provide any proof to
• 23:24
  back that claim The RT editor-in-chief
• 23:27
  said at the time that the false accusations
• 23:29
  were an attempt by Ukraine To make a
• 23:33
  possible hit on her appear more palatable palatable
• 23:38
  palatable.
• 23:39
  Sorry about that Moscow is accused Kiev of
• 23:43
  the assassination of several prominent Russian officials and
• 23:47
  public figures Since the escalation of the Ukraine
• 23:50
  conflict including in can't speak including chemical defense
• 23:56
  chief general eager Kirillov and journalist Daria Dugina
• 24:00
  the daughter of philosopher Alexander Dugin and you
• 24:05
  know, there's people and there are strong ties
• 24:11
  to the to the terrorist attack at the
• 24:17
  Theater the crocus Did happen in Moscow went
• 24:21
  in the gunman went in?
• 24:24
  automatic weapons killed a hundred and forty people
• 24:26
  145 people who were waiting for a for
• 24:30
  a concert to start just shooting people while
• 24:32
  they're sat there sitting families kids just shot
• 24:35
  them all and I mean there were thousands
• 24:38
  of people in there and You know, they
• 24:40
  were you know On the payroll of Ukraine
• 24:44
  and that is of the SPU in unbelievable
• 24:51
  Crazy stuff goes on in this world and
• 24:54
  you know You don't have to love Russia,
• 24:57
  you know, I like I think Russia is
• 24:58
  pretty cool I think there's no reason that
• 25:00
  Russia is our enemy.
• 25:01
  That's that's for sure And I said and
• 25:04
  I'm pretty clear about that.
• 25:05
  I don't think there's any reason Ukraine's our
• 25:07
  enemy I don't believe Russia wants to take
• 25:09
  over the planet like everybody says and I
• 25:12
  think we made huge mistakes since 1991 when
• 25:15
  I was in the in the diplomatic corps
• 25:19
  doing Arms control, I think we made huge
• 25:25
  mistakes and the idiots that are running the
• 25:28
  show now Hopefully Trumpster is not one of
• 25:30
  them and it appears that he's not.
• 25:32
  Oh, there's some there's some crazy stuff going
• 25:35
  on That is going on.
• 25:37
  There's some One funny story at well, it's
• 25:41
  really not funny.
• 25:42
  It's terrible So Ukraine is full of blackouts
• 25:45
  right now and they're gonna have a ton
• 25:47
  of problems when winter comes They are losing
• 25:51
  and that's not gonna change So Zelensky Zelensky's
• 25:58
  aides have advised Ukrainians During the blackouts To
• 26:05
  meditate People should manage their stress and blame
• 26:09
  Russia for power outages so she's a presidential
• 26:13
  advisor and She says they should practice you
• 26:18
  she has urged citizens to practice breathing exercises
• 26:22
  during prolonged power exercise our power outages and
• 26:26
  Insisted that Russia not the Ukraine government is
• 26:30
  Responsible for all of their suffering Russia has
• 26:33
  intensified its own long-range strikes on Ukrainian
• 26:35
  energy Infrastructure saying the attacks aim to decrayed
• 26:40
  Kibbs arms production and military logistics and to
• 26:44
  retaliate for Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy
• 26:48
  sites to Mo to Muffet Milovanov a member
• 26:54
  of the advisory board of the Ukraine State
• 26:56
  Nuclear Company Energo atom and an advisor to
• 27:00
  the presidential office shared his stress managing Recommendations
• 27:04
  in a Facebook post on Sunday He said
• 27:07
  regular blackouts are likely to continue through the
• 27:11
  winter as the country faces mounting strain on
• 27:14
  its energy grid How should one prepare?
• 27:17
  He said first of all mentally and Psychologically
• 27:22
  breathing exercises are the simplest method Inhale for
• 27:27
  four seconds hold for four seconds exhale for
• 27:32
  four seconds and pause for four a Few
• 27:35
  such cycles send the brain a signal that
• 27:39
  everything is under control He advised Ukrainians to
• 27:44
  keep their emotions in check despite the long
• 27:47
  blackouts cold meals gridlock and constant fear of
• 27:51
  airstrikes People must remember that the cause is
• 27:55
  Russia and no one else he said Ukraine's
• 27:59
  Vladimir Zelensky on Monday reiterated his refusal to
• 28:03
  compromise with Moscow The Ukraine government is calling
• 28:08
  instead for greater Western military aid to expand
• 28:12
  long-range attacks on Russian territory Claiming that
• 28:15
  that strategy enjoys public backing in Contrast to
• 28:19
  those assertions the Ukrainian military is suffering from
• 28:23
  widespread draft evasion and more than a hundred
• 28:27
  thousand desertions this year by the way Moscow
• 28:32
  has maintained that the conflict stems from NATO's
• 28:35
  eastward expansion as I've covered for plenty of
• 28:38
  time an Early peace deal reaching 22 collapsed
• 28:41
  after in Iran blah blah blah.
• 28:42
  We already know that part I just found
• 28:45
  the you know, hey, how do you deal
• 28:48
  with blackouts?
• 28:50
  so Americans so, you know Lake O's Arkins
• 28:54
  if You're sitting at home.
• 28:57
  The power goes out Breathe in for a
• 29:03
  second hold breathe out for a second pause
• 29:08
  Then do it all over again For a
• 29:11
  few times of that tell you what everything
• 29:14
  will be just fine When the power goes
• 29:16
  out that is how you should deal with
• 29:19
  it.
• 29:21
  So all of the news Well, you know
• 29:24
  what?
• 29:24
  I'm gonna do this opinion piece first that
• 29:28
  When There's so many I would love to
• 29:32
  get into more than one but I'm not
• 29:35
  going to I'm going to Stick with this
• 29:39
  one came out today When a tomahawk becomes
• 29:44
  a boomerang and it's talking about Zelensky's latest
• 29:51
  Washington Humiliation now I told you a little
• 29:55
  bit about this before and this is not
• 30:00
  horribly long But I'm gonna share the whole
• 30:04
  thing with you This is by a guy
• 30:09
  that I share with you reasonably often he
• 30:13
  is Tariq Cyril Amar who's a historian from
• 30:17
  Germany and he works in Istanbul and You
• 30:25
  know, he's a Russian Ukraine and Eastern European
• 30:29
  expert and here's his Interesting take on the
• 30:36
  Zelensky and Trump meeting which I'm going to
• 30:39
  cover a little bit more of this.
• 30:41
  Well Leave it to mr.
• 30:43
  Unpredictable aka Donald Trump president of the United
• 30:47
  States to pack a policy u-turn a
• 30:52
  harsh unfriending and some fuzzy ambiguity into just
• 30:56
  a few days as Things stand now Trump
• 31:01
  has said no to American tomahawk cruise missiles
• 31:04
  for Kiev Maybe not yet forever as vice
• 31:07
  president.
• 31:08
  J.
• 31:08
  D.
• 31:09
  Vance has stressed but clearly for the foreseeable
• 31:12
  future Whatever that may mean with Trump In
• 31:17
  the process he has also made it clear
• 31:20
  painfully clear that Kiv's Vladimir Zelensky is back
• 31:24
  in the doghouse Seemingly in favor for a
• 31:27
  while after donning a suit like a good
• 31:30
  little boy and flattering Trump at every Opportunity
• 31:33
  and without inhibition the Ukrainian leader without elections
• 31:37
  is out of in the cold again No,
• 31:41
  welcome at the airport a Friday afternoon meeting
• 31:45
  Demonstratively scheduled to get a nuisance visitor out
• 31:48
  of the way before the weekend and we
• 31:50
  hear some rough talk even shouting again It
• 31:55
  is as if Zelensky did not board a
• 31:58
  plane to pay another submission visit to Washington
• 32:01
  But a time machine and it deposited him
• 32:05
  Deposited him right back in February when he
• 32:08
  received an urgently needed public drubbing in the
• 32:12
  Oval Office Compulsive optimists among the thinning crowd
• 32:17
  of deadly friends of Ukraine in the West.
• 32:20
  Oh, did you see the hood?
• 32:23
  I Gotta interrupt this.
• 32:24
  I forgot about this.
• 32:26
  He is walking toward the White House They're
• 32:29
  outside and he's walking in in downtown, Washington
• 32:33
  DC I know exactly where he was and
• 32:35
  he's walking down the street and there's a
• 32:39
  couple of people with him and there are
• 32:42
  says the the the under the the the
• 32:46
  pics the Caption under the picture says a
• 32:50
  huge crowd visit, you know waits for Zelensky
• 32:53
  and there are two people Ukrainian flags and
• 32:59
  that's it.
• 33:00
  I'm thinking that the worm has turned for
• 33:03
  the for the government Or I'm sorry for
• 33:07
  the people of America, you know, just saying
• 33:09
  oh geez We love everything about Ukraine and
• 33:12
  I I think that I Think that people
• 33:15
  are finally seeing the reality here It's not
• 33:19
  our deal never was our deal never should
• 33:22
  have been our deal but anyway, I thought
• 33:24
  that was I hate to say I hate
• 33:26
  to laugh about it, you know, and pretty
• 33:28
  comical but compile The friends of Ukraine in
• 33:35
  the West may want to take solace in
• 33:37
  the fact that this time Trump had the
• 33:40
  decency to administer Zelensky's spanking behind closed doors,
• 33:45
  but then it was leaked immediately to the
• 33:48
  Financial Times Of course the leaker may have
• 33:53
  been a desperate pro-zelensky holdout still hiding
• 33:56
  somewhere in the US administration Is that you
• 33:59
  Keith Kellogg?
• 34:01
  trying to alert the Europeans so they can
• 34:03
  come again to their Ukrainian protege's aid and
• 34:07
  Sabotage the oh-so-horrible prospect of a
• 34:11
  quick peace deal and according to Maria's a
• 34:14
  heart of a Speaking for the Russian Ministry
• 34:16
  of Foreign Affairs.
• 34:17
  They have already started interfering again.
• 34:20
  That was an interesting article Lucky Ukrainians you
• 34:24
  have a government that feeds you into a
• 34:27
  lost meat grinder war for which your Western
• 34:30
  Friends from hell once promised you NATO Remember
• 34:33
  that one.
• 34:35
  Never mind.
• 34:35
  It was always a transparent lie and now
• 34:39
  they promise simply nothing And you have diehard
• 34:43
  European Supporters who fear nothing more than that.
• 34:47
  This bloody scam will stop while some of
• 34:50
  you are still alive If the leak really
• 34:53
  came from someone attempting to sabotage Trump We'll
• 34:57
  hear about a dismissal soon Come to think
• 35:00
  of it the designated u.s. Delegation for
• 35:03
  Budapest does not seem to include Kellogg as
• 35:07
  it just so happens Yet we probably will
• 35:10
  not because the better Explanation is that it
• 35:13
  came from the very top and was meant
• 35:16
  to make Zelensky's crash just as public as
• 35:19
  last time Finally with the forget about it
• 35:23
  on the tomahawks and the big bruising Unfriending
• 35:27
  came the message on how to end the
• 35:29
  war This time Trump had no time for
• 35:33
  silly fairy tales about Kiev still turning it
• 35:35
  around and winning His blunt message was that
• 35:39
  Kiev must make concessions including all of the
• 35:42
  Donbass according to the rapid leak Zelensky's attempt
• 35:47
  to present his fantasy maps of Russian weak
• 35:51
  spots met with a brusque reaction What does
• 35:55
  it all mean and where did it come
• 35:58
  from?
• 35:59
  Regarding where it came from.
• 36:01
  Let's get one popular take out of the
• 36:04
  way Yes, Trump had just had a phone
• 36:07
  conversation with President Vladimir Putin In fact the
• 36:11
  longest of the eight we know about since
• 36:14
  Trump's second inauguration The talk went well as
• 36:18
  was shown by both immediate Western reports if
• 36:21
  the NATO EU Europe especially often in a
• 36:24
  sour mood and Russian reactions Most importantly the
• 36:30
  president's agreed to meet in person again soon
• 36:34
  this time in the Hungarian capital of Budapest
• 36:39
  And I'm gonna tell you quite a bit
• 36:40
  about that tonight when we get to it
• 36:42
  here That choice is clearly due to the
• 36:45
  fact that Hungary next to Slovakia has been
• 36:48
  the only EU government to stay rational about
• 36:52
  the Ukraine war affirming a belief in diplomacy
• 36:57
  instead of forever war the whole mainstream EU
• 37:03
  and UK meanwhile has furiously maneuvered itself into
• 37:08
  irrelevance Yet the conversation between Putin and Trump
• 37:14
  does not mean that Moscow has Manipulated oh
• 37:17
  so naive Trump into changing his approach as
• 37:21
  Claimed again rather arrogantly by many hapless Western
• 37:25
  commentators and Kiev politicians such as Alexander Mariska
• 37:31
  Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of Ukraine's
• 37:34
  Parliament.
• 37:34
  Mr. Trump fell again for Putin's old trick
• 37:39
  Mariska wants to believe or make us believe
• 37:42
  the reality is Obviously that Trump is not
• 37:46
  being tricked at all on the contrary He
• 37:50
  understands key things that Kiev not Moscow has
• 37:54
  done its utmost to deceive him about Ukraine
• 37:58
  cannot win Russia is winning Tomahawks will not
• 38:03
  change these facts, but make the more war
• 38:06
  much worse again in particular by increasing the
• 38:10
  risk of a regional or even global escalation
• 38:14
  which may well be the real aim of
• 38:17
  the desperate gamblers clinging on in Kiev and
• 38:21
  Even if Russia were once again to show
• 38:24
  the restraint that the West so sorely lacks
• 38:27
  There can be little doubt that it would
• 38:30
  retaliate massively inside of Ukraine The u.s.
• 38:35
  Of course would never have sold enough tomahawks
• 38:38
  to make a difference Again as I reported
• 38:41
  last week as even halfway honest Western experts
• 38:47
  note the weapons themselves while dangerous are fairly
• 38:52
  old originally developed half a century ago and
• 38:56
  slow subsonic in an age of hypersonic cutting
• 39:02
  -edge Remember, they're only 0.5 to 0
• 39:07
  .75 mock remember that and so under a
• 39:10
  mock Russian hypersonics are over 10 mock There
• 39:16
  you go the irishnik is anyway That's what
• 39:18
  the Ukrainians reported their use would have involved
• 39:21
  u.s. Targeting data and personnel as I've
• 39:25
  also reported a new stage of escalation as
• 39:28
  the Russian president has explicitly warned Withholding tomahawk
• 39:34
  missiles from Kiev is very likely to also
• 39:36
  have to do with strategic priorities at the
• 39:39
  Pentagon the current brain Policy chief Elbridge Colby
• 39:44
  has made no secret out of his correct
• 39:47
  view that a proxy War against Russia in
• 39:51
  Europe is a short-sighted waste of resources
• 39:54
  at the very best which So Colby incorrectly
• 39:59
  believes should be reserved for a potential conflict
• 40:02
  with China in Asia I saw that do
• 40:05
  those nuts Colby's name has already been associated
• 40:09
  with a temporary halt in supplies to Ukraine
• 40:12
  this summer in the tomahawk debate He has
• 40:15
  stayed quiet, but he has certainly not been
• 40:18
  passive.
• 40:19
  So what does it all mean?
• 40:21
  That's where things get tricky Especially with Trump
• 40:24
  we have just been through a phase of
• 40:26
  if not aggressiveness then pronounced Rhetorical toughness toward
• 40:30
  Moscow which followed a period of eager rapprochement
• 40:34
  and complimentary iciness toward Kiev Now we're back
• 40:38
  where we started Ukraine is out Russia is
• 40:41
  in again Trump himself has acknowledged that he
• 40:44
  thinks of others including Moscow as trying to
• 40:47
  play him But he doesn't really mind that's
• 40:51
  of course a way of admitting that he's
• 40:53
  playing as well and Frankly, why should Moscow
• 40:56
  mind yet as a minimum?
• 40:58
  it means that what Trump says and does
• 41:01
  on any given day can be either a
• 41:04
  strategic move or a tactical ploy or potentially
• 41:08
  both Depending on how things work out and
• 41:13
  that is where the fuzzy ambiguity We have
• 41:15
  mentioned at the beginning comes into play once
• 41:18
  the great Zelensky bashing leak was out Trump
• 41:21
  started backpedaling and contradicting the leaked information Whereas
• 41:25
  according to the leak he had twisted Zelensky's
• 41:28
  arm to giving up all of the Donbass
• 41:31
  the next day He started telling journalists that
• 41:34
  he's in favor of freezing the front line
• 41:36
  where it is now These two positions are
• 41:40
  irreconcilable because Moscow Has not yet completely taken
• 41:45
  this area but as far as we know
• 41:46
  aims to have all of it as a
• 41:48
  condition for peace and There we are and
• 41:52
  remain in Trump world where the ground is
• 41:55
  never quite firm and yet some Opportunities may
• 41:58
  be real Moscow has shown restraint not only
• 42:02
  in the war resisting a long sequence of
• 42:05
  Western provocation that could easily have made the
• 42:08
  war all European or Global Russia also has
• 42:12
  a record of staying calm in the face
• 42:14
  of Trump's turns and rightly So there is
• 42:18
  a chance that his no to the tomahawks
• 42:21
  will solidify His realistic distrust of Kiev will
• 42:25
  stay in place and the door for peaceful
• 42:28
  Compromise will open that is what every sane
• 42:32
  and decent person should want for all of
• 42:35
  us And also for Ukraine, I hope you
• 42:39
  don't mind me sharing that article in its
• 42:41
  entirety with you, but you know The guy's
• 42:45
  well-spoken and he's absolutely right and you
• 42:49
  know Trump God love him It's all over
• 42:54
  the map and who's to say that next
• 42:56
  week.
• 42:57
  He won't change again.
• 42:58
  I hope he doesn't I hope he sticks
• 43:01
  with this the smart move as I've said
• 43:03
  for years now Did you feel like I'm
• 43:05
  a broken record is to cut these guys
• 43:08
  off?
• 43:08
  This would be over in no time and
• 43:11
  it's probably gonna end on those terms anyway,
• 43:13
  but if something happens and all these European
• 43:17
  numbnuts continue to do what they're doing to
• 43:22
  harpoon any sort of Resolution of the entire
• 43:29
  Conflict not just to ceasefire so Ukraine can
• 43:32
  rebuild and we go through it all again
• 43:34
  I agree with the Russians on this and
• 43:36
  I've been pretty clear about that.
• 43:38
  If this war is actually over and Russia
• 43:45
  is gonna Here's what I believe.
• 43:47
  I believe that there was a phone call
• 43:49
  between Putin and Trump and I believe now
• 43:52
  there's been most of the reports say that
• 43:55
  Putin is the one that called Trump Okay,
• 43:57
  and he did it and I've been and
• 43:59
  I was sitting there thinking about this strategically
• 44:01
  now if this is true and God I
• 44:04
  don't know, you know, I've seen Almost all
• 44:07
  of it has been that Putin called Trump
• 44:09
  and when did he call him?
• 44:12
  He called him on Thursday, right?
• 44:14
  I suppose it might have been Wednesday afternoon,
• 44:15
  but I'm pretty sure it was Thursday and
• 44:17
  The old Z monster is gonna meet with
• 44:20
  Trump on Friday so Putin Sabotaged The meeting
• 44:28
  with Zelensky because up until that time we
• 44:31
  were here at all about Tomahawks, well, you
• 44:34
  know there was like oh my god We're
• 44:35
  actually gonna do it you hear talk Trump
• 44:38
  talking about this stuff.
• 44:39
  You got idiots like Kellogg running around Oh,
• 44:41
  it's gonna be great.
• 44:42
  You know, we're gonna bomb the hell out
• 44:44
  of him Then you got me going.
• 44:45
  What are you gonna do throw a man?
• 44:47
  Um, you got no way to launch him
• 44:49
  We're not gonna launch him from our subs
• 44:51
  or our ships and you know, we went
• 44:53
  over all that last week and Then all
• 44:56
  of a sudden Putin calls Trump next day.
• 44:59
  Trump's like, you know, I don't think we
• 45:01
  can afford to give away any Tomahawks and
• 45:04
  you know, I've been talking to Putin and
• 45:07
  we need to meet we're gonna meet in
• 45:09
  Budapest and Z-man you got to give
• 45:13
  up to Don Bass and if you don't
• 45:14
  you're probably gonna lose, you know He didn't
• 45:16
  tell him this but I'm telling him this
• 45:18
  you don't Putin's gonna take it Anyway might
• 45:21
  take him a little bit, but I bet
• 45:23
  I bet you anything that what Putin said
• 45:26
  to Trump is listen You give up Tomahawks
• 45:32
  You're making a huge mistake all through the
• 45:35
  all through the week.
• 45:36
  They're saying those are nuclear capable weapons What
• 45:41
  are we supposed to do?
• 45:42
  Let them be shot into our territory with
• 45:46
  American targeting and not take it as a
• 45:50
  response that we need to make a nuclear
• 45:52
  response I think you're playing with fire.
• 45:55
  Don't do it.
• 45:56
  That's number one Number two, even if you
• 45:59
  do it ain't gonna change anything We're still
• 46:02
  gonna beat the hell out of him.
• 46:03
  It's not gonna change what we have and
• 46:05
  how many you gonna send?
• 46:06
  It's it's it's it's not gonna work Number
• 46:10
  three he said yeah, I I bet he
• 46:13
  said Listen, I will make a deal with
• 46:17
  you.
• 46:17
  You get that little wanker the Z-man
• 46:20
  to give up Zaporozhye Hurson and The Don
• 46:29
  Bass which is Donetsk and Lugansk you getting
• 46:32
  to give those up So we don't have
• 46:33
  to keep killing people to get them because
• 46:36
  we're gonna take them We're not stopping until
• 46:38
  we get them those people have had referenda
• 46:41
  and those referenda they voted for us and
• 46:45
  They're out and then you find somebody to
• 46:49
  get rid of Any NATO aspirations not gonna
• 46:53
  happen we don't care if they join the
• 46:55
  EU he said that before and Then you
• 46:58
  have elections and get us somebody that can
• 47:01
  sign the peace deal We're not gonna I'm
• 47:05
  sure that he probably told him again because
• 47:07
  everybody said it there will be no cease
• 47:10
  -fire For the sake of a ceasefire We
• 47:14
  will do it and we'd be happy to
• 47:16
  talk about it who refused the Istanbul continuations
• 47:21
  Zelensky those have been refused since July and
• 47:26
  Before that they were in was it Saudi
• 47:28
  Arabia or was it Qatar?
• 47:30
  I think was Saudi Arabia, but they They
• 47:32
  they canceled those two the F after they
• 47:34
  were done ceasefires weren't honored nothing there There
• 47:38
  is nothing positive that has been done on
• 47:41
  the Ukrainian side to stop this war It's
• 47:43
  always we want everything back Russia bad.
• 47:47
  We're good the end Nonsense not gonna work
• 47:50
  anyway that is my Rant on that particular
• 47:56
  topic and I wanted to go into this
• 48:01
  other part Where are we we want to
• 48:07
  talk about?
• 48:08
  You know the map being totally louder than
• 48:12
  any microphone You know especially with what's coming
• 48:17
  up With Putin and Trump gonna meet here
• 48:20
  in a little bit right supposedly in the
• 48:22
  next couple of weeks So the map is
• 48:25
  louder than these microphones Brussels is scolding The
• 48:28
  ICC is waving paper around saying we're gonna
• 48:31
  arrest Putin and hungry small on the map
• 48:35
  enormous in the moment has stepped into a
• 48:38
  role of a self-appointed guardian of European
• 48:42
  values and is refusing to play Along with
• 48:47
  the other Europeans instead they're gonna offer the
• 48:50
  room as a host they're gonna guarantee the
• 48:53
  door They're gonna let the real leaders talk
• 48:57
  Putin and Trump by the way, I believe
• 49:00
  Z man isn't Invited and that's all they're
• 49:04
  doing.
• 49:05
  They're not gonna lecture.
• 49:06
  They're not gonna give hashtags No photo op
• 49:09
  summits that produce communiques and casualties in the
• 49:11
  same breath Just a table in Budapest and
• 49:15
  an opportunity for Washington and Moscow to stop
• 49:18
  a war the rest of Europe Claims it
• 49:22
  once ended so long as someone else does
• 49:25
  the ending of it You've heard it Putin
• 49:28
  can't come he must be detained It would
• 49:32
  be what's the word not nice.
• 49:34
  It's not nice for him.
• 49:36
  Oh spare us International law is not a
• 49:39
  kindergarten sticker chart the ICC International Criminal Court
• 49:43
  can issue documents it cannot conjure a police
• 49:47
  force out of a press release The European
• 49:50
  Union can posture it cannot put handcuffs on
• 49:54
  a foreign head of state without a sovereign
• 49:56
  member Deciding to act and the sovereign member
• 50:01
  in this story has already said something very
• 50:03
  simple We will host the talks.
• 50:07
  We will ensure safe entry and safe exit
• 50:11
  That is what grown-ups do when they
• 50:14
  want peace more than they want applause So,
• 50:17
  let's set the stage if a summit happens
• 50:19
  in Budapest the question is not theoretical will
• 50:23
  somebody dare It's a practical question.
• 50:27
  How does the plane get there?
• 50:29
  This is where the rhetoric ends in the
• 50:32
  air corridors begin because in the real world
• 50:35
  look at that Diplomacy isn't just words.
• 50:39
  It's a flight plan.
• 50:40
  It's overflight permission It's who picks up the
• 50:43
  phone in Ankara in Sofia in Belgrade and
• 50:46
  says send it it's whether an Aleutian 96
• 50:50
  with callsign Rossia gets a quarter over the
• 50:53
  Black Sea and the Balkans or whether a
• 50:55
  single waiver in a single capital opens a
• 50:59
  sky that the EU Insists is sealed to
• 51:04
  Russia The irony writes itself the loudest voices
• 51:08
  claiming to defend Europe's security are Terrified of
• 51:12
  the one thing that actually reduces risk leaders
• 51:16
  in the same room You want to talk
• 51:20
  about security?
• 51:21
  Let's talk about security like adults.
• 51:24
  The movie scene is missiles and dogfights The
• 51:26
  real scene is electronics navigation interference GPS spoofing
• 51:32
  Jamming along the eastern flank.
• 51:34
  That's why state flights don't rely on wishful
• 51:37
  thinking or social media They fly with redundancies
• 51:40
  inertial navigation radio beams plan ABC plus two
• 51:45
  alternates You'll never hear about until the dust
• 51:47
  is settled Inside Russian airspace expect a visible
• 51:51
  fighter escort because the point of visibility is
• 51:54
  deterrence beyond that It's coordination not theater No
• 51:58
  one in NATO wants a high-risk air
• 52:00
  condition air condition air incident in EU skies
• 52:04
  No one in Kiev wants to lose the
• 52:07
  support of the very government's keeping their lights
• 52:09
  on If you're hearing fantasies about shoot downs
• 52:14
  to stop diplomacy Turn them off Adults have
• 52:18
  work to do now to the politics You
• 52:21
  won't hear the same officials who call a
• 52:25
  Putin visit Unthinkable also acknowledge that there is
• 52:29
  no formal EU travel ban on the man
• 52:32
  himself Sanctions are about assets and airframes Not
• 52:38
  the physical right of a head of state
• 52:40
  to walk through a door if the host
• 52:42
  invites him Which means the obstacle is not
• 52:44
  the person It's the paperwork on the aircraft
• 52:47
  and the willpower in the quarter states Solve
• 52:50
  those two and the rest is just choreography
• 52:53
  late filed routes tight timing no leaks wheels
• 52:58
  down in Budapest motorcade to a guarded venue
• 53:02
  phones off Translators in doors closed.
• 53:07
  That's where the war stops behind those doors
• 53:10
  Not behind a podium meanwhile The Battlefield continues
• 53:16
  to do what battlefields do in late October
• 53:20
  grind?
• 53:21
  You've seen the same map for months with
• 53:24
  different arrows, but here's the truth cease fires
• 53:27
  freeze lines Every kilometer matters before talks.
• 53:31
  That's why both commands pushing now to lock
• 53:34
  in reality Before negotiators lock in treaty language
• 53:38
  you can love or hate the idea of
• 53:40
  freezing the front But there's no honest argument
• 53:43
  against fewer Funerals this winter if the choice
• 53:47
  is a ceasefire along current lines or another
• 53:50
  mobilization cycle with less attract electricity and more
• 53:54
  obituaries Most civilians in this story don't need
• 53:58
  a pollster to decide What brings us?
• 54:03
  Which brings us to Washington Where we were
• 54:07
  told to expect historic unity after another round
• 54:12
  of handshakes What actually emerged was something far
• 54:16
  more realistic no tomahawks the rhetoric about decisive
• 54:21
  new Capability met the arithmetic of stockpiles and
• 54:24
  escalation cruise missiles are not candy You don't
• 54:28
  hand them out to brighten someone's day And
• 54:31
  if your strategy is to stop the dying
• 54:33
  and start the talking you don't throw the
• 54:37
  most Escalatory hardware on the table the week
• 54:40
  you're exploring a meeting in the heart of
• 54:43
  the European Union That isn't restraint.
• 54:46
  It's logic on the other side of the
• 54:49
  lectern Kiv's public line remains No land no
• 54:54
  concession even as everyone hears the whisper underneath
• 55:00
  a Ceasefire that halts the bleeding where it
• 55:03
  is today is better than the losses required
• 55:06
  to move the map an inch Tomorrow you
• 55:10
  can call it realism.
• 55:11
  You can call it fatigue.
• 55:13
  You can call it triage what you cannot
• 55:15
  call it is victory Wars end either with
• 55:19
  decisive defeat or reluctant compromise if the latter
• 55:23
  is all that's left then the work is
• 55:26
  drawing a line that nobody loves and building
• 55:30
  guarantees people can live with that's what Budapest
• 55:35
  offers not utopia, but an exit and Budapest
• 55:40
  matters for another reason it exposes the split
• 55:43
  inside of Europe That think tanks keep glossing
• 55:47
  over on one side Capitals that prefer statements
• 55:50
  to solutions on the other a single government
• 55:54
  that says we will host We will protect
• 55:57
  we will take the heat you can demonize
• 56:00
  that as disloyalty You know Orban is disloyal
• 56:05
  to the EU I call it leadership because
• 56:07
  leadership isn't just aligning with the loudest club
• 56:11
  in the room It's absorbing the cost of
• 56:15
  doing what the moment requires the right thing
• 56:18
  If the reward for that is a shrug
• 56:21
  from Brussels and a sneer from the rest
• 56:24
  History will be kinder than the headlines So
• 56:28
  let's walk through the legal reality What can
• 56:32
  the ICC say?
• 56:34
  What can the sovereign host do where can
• 56:37
  those lines actually cross?
• 56:39
  the likely routes Black Sea Turkey EU Practical
• 56:44
  measures that make a head of state flight
• 56:46
  boringly safe instead of theatrically risky We can
• 56:50
  talk about escorts air policing why the smartest
• 56:53
  protection is secrecy We'll break down the Washington
• 56:57
  Kiv aftertaste No, Tomahawks ceasefire whispers growing and
• 57:03
  we'll you know Talk about freezing the line
• 57:07
  today rather than bleeding out tomorrow Because of
• 57:12
  one quarter opens one plane lifts off one
• 57:15
  meeting happens This winter might be measured in
• 57:18
  negotiations and not eulogies And if the people
• 57:23
  who are complaining about niceness can't stomach that
• 57:27
  Then they can write a strongly worded letter
• 57:30
  while the rest of us try to end
• 57:32
  a war That's what I think we need
• 57:34
  to do.
• 57:35
  So let's start by Talking about the International
• 57:40
  Criminal Court it has a warrant in place
• 57:42
  for Vladimir Putin, which was issued on March
• 57:45
  17 Hey, isn't that a st.
• 57:49
  Paddy's day on March 17 2023 by pretrial
• 57:55
  chamber number two That's a real judicial act.
• 57:59
  The paper does exist.
• 58:00
  The court says it concerns unlawful transfers of
• 58:03
  children from conflict Joan Zones, that's the court
• 58:08
  claim But here's the part many pundits skip
• 58:11
  the ICC has no blue-helmeted police It
• 58:16
  lives and dies But what a state does
• 58:19
  if a state party decides to arrest someone
• 58:22
  The warrant has a bite if a state
• 58:25
  party declines the court can scold them Refer
• 58:29
  and convene but it cannot deploy Bailiffs, that's
• 58:34
  not a value judgment.
• 58:35
  That's how the Rome statute was built article
• 58:38
  86 sets a general duty to cooperate Article
• 58:42
  89 is the engine for arrest and surrender
• 58:45
  through national authorities in other words the ICC
• 58:49
  asks and states act or do not Now
• 58:55
  let's talk about immunity the ICC's appeals chamber
• 58:58
  in the Jordan al-bashir decision in 2019
• 59:02
  held that a sitting head of state cannot
• 59:05
  rely on Personal immunity to defeat an ICC
• 59:09
  arrest request before an international court Yeah, but
• 59:14
  they don't apply it to Netanyahu.
• 59:16
  Do they that was the court's answer to
• 59:19
  years of you Can't touch a head of
• 59:21
  state arguments It has since been cited to
• 59:25
  say that state parties must execute ICC warrants
• 59:30
  even when a traveler is a foreign leader
• 59:34
  Legally neat but politically very messy because even
• 59:39
  after that ruling the ICC Still couldn't make
• 59:42
  arrests without a willing host The judicial doctrine
• 59:46
  is pretty strong on paper.
• 59:47
  The enforcement is only as strong as the
• 59:50
  sovereign will at the airport So enter hungry
• 59:55
  Budapest has chosen a lane it began the
• 59:59
  formal process to withdraw from the Rhone statute
• 1:00:02
  in 2025 that's the ICC under article 127
• 1:00:07
  though withdrawal takes a year from notification So
• 1:00:13
  the ICC itself has publicly recorded June 2nd
• 1:00:18
  of 2026 as the effective date Translation until
• 1:00:24
  that date arrives Hungry is technically still a
• 1:00:29
  state party and on the court's reading still
• 1:00:32
  bound to cooperate But the practical consequence of
• 1:00:37
  non-cooperation is not a dramatic extradition squad
• 1:00:41
  It's an ICC referral to the Assembly of
• 1:00:44
  state parties for a political follow-up Precisely
• 1:00:48
  what we've already seen when Hungary Hungary declined
• 1:00:53
  to arrest Israel's Prime Minister during his April
• 1:00:58
  visit again paper versus police and at that
• 1:01:02
  time in April they hadn't said they were
• 1:01:04
  were What do you call it?
• 1:01:08
  Withdrawing from the Rome statute yet.
• 1:01:10
  So what about the European Union?
• 1:01:13
  You've heard sound bites EU foreign policy chief
• 1:01:16
  Kaya call us of course called a Putin
• 1:01:18
  visit to an EU capital not nice Colorful
• 1:01:23
  optics, but the EU is not a prosecutorial
• 1:01:26
  authority.
• 1:01:27
  It does not run jails It does not
• 1:01:29
  command national police the EU's institutions can urge
• 1:01:33
  member states to execute ICC requests and can
• 1:01:38
  harmonize law but arrest power is National that's
• 1:01:43
  why even the EU's own messaging stresses that
• 1:01:46
  member states Not Brussels carry the obligation to
• 1:01:50
  act on ICC warrants So when commentators say
• 1:01:55
  the EU will arrest him they're waving a
• 1:01:57
  flag the treaties don't give them only hungry
• 1:02:01
  as the host Can arrest him?
• 1:02:05
  Now let's separate two different legal lanes that
• 1:02:08
  get conflated lane one is criminal cooperation ICC
• 1:02:11
  warrant lane two is sanctions and travel restrictions
• 1:02:14
  here the headlines have shifted in the last
• 1:02:16
  72 hours the European Commission spokeswoman Anita Hipper
• 1:02:21
  clarified on the record that Putin and Lavrov
• 1:02:25
  are under asset freezes Not EU travel bans
• 1:02:30
  Whatever you think of that politically legally It
• 1:02:34
  means no EU level bar that stops them
• 1:02:37
  from entering EU territory if a member state
• 1:02:41
  admits them The sanctions regime restrict aircraft banking
• 1:02:45
  logistics and more but on the narrow question
• 1:02:48
  Is there a formal EU travel ban on
• 1:02:52
  one person the Commission says no that makes
• 1:02:57
  the Arrest him at the border because sanctions
• 1:03:01
  say so talking point a non starter The
• 1:03:04
  debate slides to the ICC lane and again
• 1:03:08
  Hungary's choice So what does Hungary's choice look
• 1:03:12
  like in practice if Putin lands in Budapest
• 1:03:15
  for a summit there are three forks fork
• 1:03:18
  one Hungary decides to execute the ICC request
• 1:03:22
  to pay detains Putin and moves towards surrender
• 1:03:25
  proceedings politically Implausible giving everything Budapest is stated,
• 1:03:31
  but that's the template the court would prefer
• 1:03:33
  for to Hungary admits him Doesn't arrest him
• 1:03:37
  and later gets referred to the ICC for
• 1:03:40
  non-compliance like it did after the Netanyahu
• 1:03:43
  visit That's the most likely scenario if a
• 1:03:47
  summit occurs and the ICC's submits a cooperation
• 1:03:49
  request For three the visit is structured in
• 1:03:53
  a way that either avoids a triggered request
• 1:03:57
  Timing notice or is shielded by conflicting national
• 1:04:01
  provisions arguments Hungary is floated before But none
• 1:04:04
  of those forks involved the EU Marching in
• 1:04:08
  with handcuffs the only enforcement muscle belongs to
• 1:04:12
  Hungary So let's talk about the al-bashir
• 1:04:16
  precedent.
• 1:04:16
  Could that force Hungary's hand legally?
• 1:04:19
  The ICC says yes The appeal chamber told
• 1:04:22
  Jordan in 2019 that it failed to comply
• 1:04:26
  by not arresting a visiting head of state
• 1:04:28
  But note what happened next?
• 1:04:30
  Jordan was criticized Not invaded and the world
• 1:04:35
  moved on the court logged an entry in
• 1:04:38
  its long file titled arrest cooperation challenges That's
• 1:04:43
  a stubborn reality of international criminal law Compliance
• 1:04:47
  is political Countries comply when it aligns with
• 1:04:52
  their interests and they deflect it when it
• 1:04:54
  doesn't Budapest is signaling loudly That hosting talks
• 1:04:58
  to stop a European war Outweighs performing for
• 1:05:02
  an audience in the Hague agree or disagree.
• 1:05:05
  That's what the calculus is What about the
• 1:05:09
  argument you'll hear from Brussels if we want
• 1:05:12
  peace If we've already heard this one, it's
• 1:05:15
  nonsense If we want peace Ukraine must be
• 1:05:18
  in the room and the ICC must be
• 1:05:21
  respected fine Invite Ukraine and let the ICC
• 1:05:25
  register its position But those are separate question
• 1:05:28
  from physically physically barring entry even EU friendly
• 1:05:33
  outlet spent the weekend acknowledging that the Commission's
• 1:05:36
  own clarification undercuts that he can't come in
• 1:05:41
  mantra if The host hungry opens the door
• 1:05:45
  and the quarters arranged illegal Obstacles are reduced
• 1:05:48
  to one whether hungry chooses to execute the
• 1:05:51
  ICC request on its own soil The rest
• 1:05:54
  is political theater one more correction for people
• 1:05:59
  casually invoking International law as if it were
• 1:06:02
  a single codebook with a 9-1-1
• 1:06:05
  number The Rome Statute is a treaty states
• 1:06:09
  consented to it states Implemented states withdraw from
• 1:06:14
  it under article 127 the ICC has been
• 1:06:18
  explicit that Hungary's withdrawal effective June 2nd 2026
• 1:06:24
  doesn't let it off current obligations but until
• 1:06:28
  and unless Budapest cooperates the courts only hard
• 1:06:31
  tool is to name it and shame it
• 1:06:33
  before the assembly of state parties That's why
• 1:06:37
  Netanyahu's episode ended in a referral Not a
• 1:06:41
  perp walk.
• 1:06:42
  The system is designed to pressure them not
• 1:06:46
  to compel them.
• 1:06:47
  So the bottom line is The ICC can
• 1:06:50
  issue EU can opine only hungry can arrest
• 1:06:54
  so it's not hypocrisy You know, that's how
• 1:06:58
  it is.
• 1:06:58
  So You know if Orban wants to You
• 1:07:02
  know That's what you know, that's what he
• 1:07:05
  will do.
• 1:07:05
  He's not going to but but there you
• 1:07:07
  go So I already told you about the
• 1:07:10
  travel ban.
• 1:07:12
  Let's see.
• 1:07:13
  We already talked about can he enter at
• 1:07:14
  all?
• 1:07:16
  Let's see, I I Want to talk a
• 1:07:20
  little bit more about Kaya Kala.
• 1:07:22
  She's nuts.
• 1:07:23
  Of course, Brussels isn't thrilled the EU's top
• 1:07:26
  diplomat cuz you call us Describe the prospect
• 1:07:29
  of a Putin visit to an EU country
• 1:07:31
  is not nice.
• 1:07:32
  The phrase has become the meme of the
• 1:07:34
  week And also the tell not nice is
• 1:07:39
  neither a statute nor a sanction It's an
• 1:07:42
  opinion about optics as to what the EU
• 1:07:45
  can actually do The pitch that I let
• 1:07:48
  up officials pivot back to the ICC line
• 1:07:52
  or general disapproval But the EU don't command
• 1:07:56
  National Police.
• 1:07:57
  They don't issue aviation derogations for sovereign airspace
• 1:08:00
  member states do So the block can scold
• 1:08:05
  but only hungry can comply so Where I
• 1:08:12
  wanted to get to where is this?
• 1:08:17
  No, no, no, no Let's fold in what
• 1:08:23
  is Russia's saying about this?
• 1:08:26
  They've been pretty blunt Budapest guaranteed passage ICC's
• 1:08:30
  political law fell rear still story is one
• 1:08:34
  EU capital is willing to facilitate talks others
• 1:08:37
  just posture Ukraine a.r. Ooh the same
• 1:08:40
  paper that's gonna publish my article emphasize Hungary's
• 1:08:43
  peace positioning and Orban's Pragmatism for years He
• 1:08:47
  has argued the dialogue not pressure is the
• 1:08:51
  only way to end a war on European
• 1:08:53
  soil You don't have to agree with him
• 1:08:57
  But you know Orban's ties with both leaders
• 1:09:01
  make hungry uniquely suited to actually perhaps Have
• 1:09:08
  some success Now let's talk about the realistic
• 1:09:11
  routes and paperwork and the games of all
• 1:09:14
  this because I found this quite interesting let's
• 1:09:18
  talk air if Budapest is the venue the
• 1:09:21
  real drama isn't the courthouse.
• 1:09:24
  It's 35,000 feet the question is how
• 1:09:28
  does he fly?
• 1:09:30
  because within the European Union The sanctions regime
• 1:09:35
  blocks Russian owned Russian controlled or Russian operated
• 1:09:41
  aircraft from taking off landing or overflying EU
• 1:09:48
  territory uncle under article 3d of regulation 833
• 1:09:53
  of 2014 That is the brick wall, but
• 1:09:58
  the same rule contains a door Member states
• 1:10:01
  can grant one-off waivers for defined public
• 1:10:05
  interest reasons So what's the translation of that
• 1:10:08
  if one EU capital?
• 1:10:11
  authorizes a state flight corridor the flight becomes
• 1:10:15
  lawful and The politics shift from impossible to
• 1:10:20
  imminent now who opens the door in the
• 1:10:23
  last 24 hours Bulgaria Publicly signaled readiness to
• 1:10:28
  provide an air corridor for a Budapest summit
• 1:10:32
  flight It isn't a rumor It's on the
• 1:10:34
  record from Sofia picked up across European and
• 1:10:37
  Russian outlets a single corridor authorization is precisely
• 1:10:41
  the mechanism 3d anticipates when it says member
• 1:10:44
  states can exceptionally permit operations for humanitarian or
• 1:10:48
  other purposes consistent with the regulations objective if
• 1:10:53
  Bulgaria signs this paper the he can't reach
• 1:10:57
  the EU capital in Hungary That that points
• 1:11:02
  just gone, so let's look at the realistic
• 1:11:04
  route How do we make the track a
• 1:11:08
  professional flight planner would present when the principles
• 1:11:11
  say make this work route a would be?
• 1:11:14
  the Black Sea to Turkey to Bulgaria to
• 1:11:18
  Serbia to Hungary Operationally elegant and politically plausible,
• 1:11:25
  but it's a long route when I when
• 1:11:27
  I flew from Turkey I'm sorry when I
• 1:11:30
  flew from Miami to Kazan last year So
• 1:11:35
  Kazan is north of the Black Sea, okay?
• 1:11:39
  Pretty much in the middle I suppose it's
• 1:11:41
  about Four hours, I think south of Moscow,
• 1:11:44
  and it's a you know a couple hours
• 1:11:47
  to to the Black Sea and in order
• 1:11:50
  to get there here's what happens wartime right
• 1:11:52
  so you can't fly over to Black Sea
• 1:11:54
  and Previously when I went to Naberezhnye Chelny
• 1:11:57
  I flew into Kazan for that trip back
• 1:12:00
  in I don't remember 2022 or 23 and
• 1:12:04
  That flight was much shorter, so the flight
• 1:12:06
  from Miami to Istanbul is 12 13 hours,
• 1:12:11
  and you know that's uncomfortable, but the flight
• 1:12:13
  from Istanbul to Kazan was only like three
• 1:12:17
  hours Last year it was six because you
• 1:12:22
  have to go all the way around the
• 1:12:23
  Black Sea So because you can't fly over
• 1:12:26
  it.
• 1:12:26
  You know he No, fly zone Black Sea
• 1:12:29
  can't can't do commercial air over there So
• 1:12:32
  the same thing is what you know they're
• 1:12:35
  talking about obviously the direct route to To
• 1:12:41
  Hungary from Moscow would be through Ukraine But
• 1:12:45
  even if he went through Belarus and through
• 1:12:48
  Poland Poland I wouldn't fly over Poland if
• 1:12:51
  I was him guys are nuts You'd have
• 1:12:54
  to I can't remember if Hungary touches Poland
• 1:12:57
  I think it does, but I don't remember
• 1:12:59
  he might add another state to go through
• 1:13:01
  Romania I think but but I don't remember
• 1:13:04
  I'm not looking at a map either, but
• 1:13:06
  but I know it'd be Belarus and then
• 1:13:09
  Poland and then Maybe one more country and
• 1:13:12
  then and then Hungary well, so the Black
• 1:13:16
  Sea route you got to go Black Sea
• 1:13:20
  Turkey Bulgaria Serbia Hungary Operationally you know it's
• 1:13:26
  this could work Turkey is NATO But not
• 1:13:29
  the EU Turkey's a member of NATO, but
• 1:13:31
  not EU therefore They're not bound by the
• 1:13:34
  EU's airframe ban Serbia is outside of the
• 1:13:37
  EU to and as friendly the idea of
• 1:13:39
  talks Bulgaria is a crucial corridor segment into
• 1:13:43
  the heart of Europe Europe and Then Budapest
• 1:13:47
  on a short final route So this route
• 1:13:49
  is the route quarter the new is news
• 1:13:52
  is pointing toward it short.
• 1:13:53
  It's really not it's long It limits EU
• 1:13:56
  exposure to a single authorizing state And it
• 1:14:01
  conforms to the sanctions architecture the aircraft remains
• 1:14:04
  blocked except where a national derogation explicitly covers
• 1:14:08
  the overflight route B Would be Black Sea
• 1:14:12
  Turkey Greece or Romania then Serbia and Hungary
• 1:14:17
  Technically simple politically harder Greece or Romania would
• 1:14:21
  need to issue the same waiver that Bulgaria
• 1:14:23
  said they would do It's doable on paper
• 1:14:26
  because article 3d allows member-state exemption.
• 1:14:29
  Just like it does for For Bulgaria, but
• 1:14:32
  it would require Athens or Bucharest to where
• 1:14:35
  the political heat Brussels is radiating this week
• 1:14:38
  There's they're not happy still if you see
• 1:14:41
  late-breaking transport ministry statements from either of
• 1:14:44
  those capitals You know that route B could
• 1:14:46
  be alive route C the long Mediterranean hook
• 1:14:51
  This is the one I saw that somebody
• 1:14:53
  was floating earlier Some aviation trackers have gamed
• 1:14:56
  a long profile that keeps the aircraft in
• 1:14:59
  non-eu skies for as long as possible
• 1:15:02
  Angles at north only at the last moment
• 1:15:04
  through a single EU quarter think Turkey Mediterranean
• 1:15:09
  Balkans and then Hungary its fuel costly and
• 1:15:13
  time-consuming But long detours are standard when
• 1:15:16
  political overflight is tight an industry site mapped
• 1:15:20
  a five Thousand kilometer alternative that adds several
• 1:15:24
  hours exactly for this reason All three of
• 1:15:27
  these routes have the same beating heart one
• 1:15:29
  EU waiver for one state flight And yes,
• 1:15:33
  that's within EU rules when a government says
• 1:15:36
  waiver serves legitimate public interest here peace talks
• 1:15:41
  That Brussels claims it welcomes if they help
• 1:15:45
  achieve peace in Ukraine What do you think?
• 1:15:48
  What about Hungary?
• 1:15:49
  The Kremlin explained why Budapest was chosen?
• 1:15:52
  Prime Minister Orban has warm relations with Trump
• 1:15:56
  and Constructive relations with Putin which is diplomatic
• 1:16:00
  shorthand for a credible host and reliable Logistics
• 1:16:04
  Hungary has signaled safe entry and exit open
• 1:16:07
  the door guard the room Let the adults
• 1:16:08
  talk Brussels can call it not nice, but
• 1:16:11
  the EU institutions didn't issue air Corridors sovereign
• 1:16:16
  ministries do that's why it stops being a
• 1:16:18
  morality play the moment Sofia Athens or Bucharest
• 1:16:21
  signs deal So now let's talk about security
• 1:16:25
  the real risk in the Black Sea and
• 1:16:27
  Balkans is electronic GPS jamming and spoofing Europe's
• 1:16:33
  aviation regulator EAS a has been warning operators
• 1:16:37
  since 2022 and Updated its safety bullets in
• 1:16:41
  24 and 25 noticing spike in interference events
• 1:16:44
  along conflict adjacent corridors That's why state flight
• 1:16:48
  plans for non GNSS navigation inertial systems radio
• 1:16:53
  beacons procedural fixes and And they file late
• 1:16:57
  to reduce targeting of the route by politics
• 1:17:00
  or pranks expect route opacity Redundant alternatives and
• 1:17:05
  the kind of boring professional risk management that
• 1:17:09
  they don't show on social media Inside the
• 1:17:13
  Russian flight information region you'll see familiar fighter
• 1:17:17
  escorts Su 30s or 35s on the wing
• 1:17:21
  through domestic airspace because visibility deters nonsense once
• 1:17:27
  the Jets exit Russian control and enter foreign
• 1:17:30
  skies escorts become Diplomatic arrangements not photo opportunities.
• 1:17:35
  You can hear chatter about Turkish f-16s
• 1:17:38
  Shepherding the Black Sea segment, but unless Ankara
• 1:17:41
  confirms it Treated as a rumor.
• 1:17:44
  What matters is clearance and quarter not selfies
• 1:17:47
  The airframe here is almost certainly the Aleutian
• 1:17:50
  96 300 pu the flying Kremlin a long
• 1:17:55
  range four engine state aircraft with hardened communications
• 1:17:59
  and Usual countermeasures you'd expect on the head
• 1:18:03
  of state platform Don't expect to get a
• 1:18:06
  spec sheet.
• 1:18:07
  The important fact is range and reliability It
• 1:18:10
  can comfortably do the legs required for any
• 1:18:13
  of the routes we laid out Will politics
• 1:18:17
  try to ambush the flight, of course Europe
• 1:18:20
  has a precedent in 2013 several EU states
• 1:18:25
  Denied overflight to Bolivian president Evo Morales forcing
• 1:18:30
  a diversion to Vienna Amid rumors about Edward
• 1:18:34
  Snowden that incident lives in every protocol officers
• 1:18:38
  muscle memory The counter is simple file late
• 1:18:42
  carry alternate plans have an extra plan You
• 1:18:45
  never brief to journalists if a corridor is
• 1:18:48
  pulled at t-minus one hour You take
• 1:18:50
  route C or Serbia first you land the
• 1:18:52
  meeting on time.
• 1:18:54
  Anyway, what about Ukraine trying to do something
• 1:18:57
  in the sky?
• 1:18:57
  Well, let's be adults about this ahead of
• 1:18:59
  state flying with diplomatic clearance transiting NATO EU
• 1:19:03
  managed airspace is the last place Anyone sane
• 1:19:06
  starts an incident.
• 1:19:08
  I don't know that they're all saying myself
• 1:19:10
  There's no public evidence Kiev intends such a
• 1:19:13
  move doing so would be a direct provocation
• 1:19:16
  Against authorizing EU NATO states as much as
• 1:19:18
  against Russia The real spoiler if any would
• 1:19:21
  be paperwork shenanigans a quarter pulled for technical
• 1:19:25
  reasons Rather than you know any sort of
• 1:19:29
  Tom Clancy book and even there the more
• 1:19:32
  the more capitals signal readiness to host the
• 1:19:35
  less leverage any single spoiler has well The
• 1:19:42
  Russian side has been pretty blunt The EU
• 1:19:44
  is the use not nice line is optics
• 1:19:47
  The operational reality is the one waiver plus
• 1:19:51
  one host is a visible summit The Bulgarian
• 1:19:54
  corridor signal in Russian and framing it as
• 1:19:58
  Europeans first practical step toward a peace venue
• 1:20:01
  The bottom line the obstacle is the metal
• 1:20:05
  not the man Article 3d blocks the aircraft
• 1:20:08
  to a sovereign EU state grants a flight
• 1:20:11
  Bulgaria offered to do that looks like it's
• 1:20:13
  gonna happen.
• 1:20:14
  So What's the real picture I believe that
• 1:20:19
  is it don't you let's See where we
• 1:20:22
  go from here That was on Ukraine there's
• 1:20:27
  some stories about Ukraine attempting to take out
• 1:20:29
  the plane How is the flight actually?
• 1:20:33
  protected supposedly there are layers a Legal layer
• 1:20:37
  will be state aircraft diplomatic clearance every you
• 1:20:41
  know is a sovereign authorization operational layer Europe's
• 1:20:45
  air policing architecture watches identifies in the Russian
• 1:20:49
  fighters escort in Russia military escorts appear Sometimes,
• 1:20:55
  you know from the host state Electronic layer
• 1:20:58
  guidance is baked into the briefing jamming spoofing
• 1:21:02
  is possible.
• 1:21:02
  But you know, I assume the Russians Russian
• 1:21:05
  jamming far far out classes hours Choreography layer
• 1:21:10
  route secrecy.
• 1:21:12
  So you've got all of those things that
• 1:21:15
  you have Um Let's see Where are we
• 1:21:20
  gonna go after this?
• 1:21:22
  Running low on time.
• 1:21:24
  So I'm gonna zip through to the aftermath
• 1:21:27
  of the Z-man and Trump Let's see
• 1:21:36
  Washington because there's been some comments about this
• 1:21:39
  afterward Washington hosted the pageant Budapest now hosting
• 1:21:42
  the substance in Between those two we watched
• 1:21:46
  very public recalibration Trump went into Zelensky meeting
• 1:21:50
  Sending two messages at once stop the fighting
• 1:21:53
  where it is and don't expect to get
• 1:21:55
  any tomahawks.
• 1:21:56
  It's not a rumor That's what he said
• 1:21:58
  when he came out He flagged that Kiev
• 1:22:01
  would press for cruise missiles and nothing was
• 1:22:03
  pledged even axios Called the meeting bad Which
• 1:22:08
  in diplomatic speak means no deal on missiles
• 1:22:12
  We all saw that poor Z man looked
• 1:22:14
  like he was crying when he walked out
• 1:22:17
  A push toward a frontline ceasefire rather than
• 1:22:21
  another round of one more big package I
• 1:22:23
  think the u.s I think we are
• 1:22:25
  tired of it truthfully on Kiev side The
• 1:22:28
  performance was familiar declare victory by redefining what
• 1:22:32
  victory looks like Zelensky came out and talked
• 1:22:34
  about progress toward getting Patriot systems 25 of
• 1:22:39
  them.
• 1:22:39
  He said I doubt that while shifting attention
• 1:22:42
  away from the failed tomahawks That's not a
• 1:22:45
  small rhetorical pivot.
• 1:22:47
  It's a switch from long-range deep strike
• 1:22:49
  narrative to defense If you're trying to sell
• 1:22:52
  the home audience on momentum Patriots sound like
• 1:22:55
  protection tomahawk sounds like escalation and Escalation is
• 1:23:00
  what Washington avoided over the weekend The bigger
• 1:23:06
  pivot is ceasefire language twice Zelensky publicly aligned
• 1:23:12
  with the idea of halting the fight along
• 1:23:15
  current lines hasn't he been I mean if
• 1:23:19
  you ever heard him say that before this
• 1:23:20
  weekend you have not while refusing to hand
• 1:23:24
  over additional Territory strip away what he said
• 1:23:27
  and to freeze freezing today's map to stop
• 1:23:30
  tomorrow's funerals Trump swatted away the allegation that
• 1:23:33
  he demanded Ukraine surrender all of done bass
• 1:23:36
  Saying instead that fighting should stop where it
• 1:23:39
  is.
• 1:23:39
  That's practically the same idea from opposite podiums
• 1:23:43
  No more advances no formal sessions now But
• 1:23:48
  I'm telling you the Don bass is almost
• 1:23:51
  all gone There's very little of it left
• 1:23:54
  on in in Kiv's hands even now Now
• 1:23:58
  to the tomahawk saga itself the week opened
• 1:24:02
  with White House Expecting you know expectations Zelensky's
• 1:24:06
  gonna ask again.
• 1:24:07
  The answer is gonna be not now Washington
• 1:24:11
  doesn't have political appetite or inventory to make
• 1:24:14
  cruise missiles contrast that with Kiv's declared homework
• 1:24:19
  in his October 15 address and his official
• 1:24:23
  website Zelensky framed Patriots and tomahawks as tools
• 1:24:29
  to lay a long-term foundation of peace
• 1:24:32
  Read this carefully.
• 1:24:33
  It's a rhetorical Jiu-jitsu match of the
• 1:24:37
  moment offensive deep strike missiles rebranded as peace
• 1:24:42
  Washington not by that pitch the Patriot framing
• 1:24:45
  however, Washington might be able to live with
• 1:24:49
  They just might I'm not sure where that
• 1:24:51
  goes.
• 1:24:52
  Where does this leave war and politics in?
• 1:24:56
  Classic endgame posture we might actually pull out
• 1:24:59
  of this this might actually work I'm really
• 1:25:03
  not all that And they're not bringing the
• 1:25:05
  old Z man.
• 1:25:06
  He was asked to be invited and so
• 1:25:08
  far He's got no place and nobody in
• 1:25:10
  Europe is going Except Orban the only sane
• 1:25:14
  one in the room anyway Kiv's public stance
• 1:25:17
  of no land no concession sits next to
• 1:25:20
  an emerging operational stance feed Freeze the front
• 1:25:23
  refit air defenses shift debate from maps to
• 1:25:27
  mechanisms.
• 1:25:28
  That is what you do when your partners
• 1:25:29
  are signaling signaling inventory fatigue on the most
• 1:25:34
  escalatory hardware and your battlefield returns per unit
• 1:25:38
  of blood are Vastly diminished it isn't Capitulation
• 1:25:43
  this is triage and for Budapest triage is
• 1:25:48
  a feature Not a bug and the only
• 1:25:51
  kind of consensus that can fit into one
• 1:25:54
  room is the kind that pauses reality Rather
• 1:25:57
  than rewrites it the war spin continues of
• 1:26:01
  course in Washington press you get anonymous quotes
• 1:26:05
  about profanity and Pressure in the meeting in
• 1:26:08
  Ukrainian messaging you get productive talks You know
• 1:26:12
  the talk about oh gee we're getting Patriots
• 1:26:15
  in Russia leaning outlets you get Tomahawks are
• 1:26:18
  denied Ceasefire logic is affirmed the overlap across
• 1:26:22
  the part everyone is admitting is the freeze
• 1:26:26
  That's the only overlapping circle on your Venn
• 1:26:30
  diagrams Let's look at incentives because incentives right
• 1:26:35
  policy for Washington a frontline freeze is the
• 1:26:38
  fastest way to stop the burn rate on
• 1:26:40
  funds and munitions while claiming diplomatic momentum Heading
• 1:26:45
  into Budapest for Moscow a freeze ratifies a
• 1:26:48
  map currently holds without political cost of formal
• 1:26:50
  annexation talks in the EU for Kiev a
• 1:26:53
  freeze with no additional Concession preserves domestic narrative
• 1:26:57
  while buying time to harden energy Infrastructure for
• 1:27:01
  winter and rotate units for Budapest a freeze
• 1:27:04
  is the only viable product to sell to
• 1:27:07
  Brussels not capitulation not recognition Suspension and the
• 1:27:12
  common word here is pause Will that be
• 1:27:16
  enough for the EU chorus?
• 1:27:18
  We don't know Especially since they called Putin's
• 1:27:22
  visit not nice watch the phrasing even as
• 1:27:26
  critics wave ICC warrants Commission quietly confirms There's
• 1:27:29
  no EU travel ban the ministers have begun
• 1:27:32
  saying out loud that any step that truly
• 1:27:34
  helps peace is welcome That tells you what
• 1:27:37
  they expect a ceasefire I'm not sure they're
• 1:27:41
  gonna get that not a final status negotiation
• 1:27:44
  It also explains why the Tomahawk denial matters
• 1:27:48
  if you want Budapest to work You don't
• 1:27:51
  escalate the week before One more uncomfortable truth.
• 1:27:55
  The battlefield is racing Racing the briefings every
• 1:27:59
  day of fighting nudges the map a little
• 1:28:02
  bit that is why both sides are pushing
• 1:28:05
  now before any room in Budapest closes those
• 1:28:08
  doors and That light Zelensky's pivot to Patriots
• 1:28:12
  isn't cosmetic it's strategic try to protect this
• 1:28:15
  grid Protect the cities protect the status quo
• 1:28:19
  I saw some reports that they are losing
• 1:28:21
  some big ones and Pukrovsk is just about
• 1:28:24
  done and I'll bet you it'll be done
• 1:28:27
  before they go to Budapest That's what I
• 1:28:32
  think so.
• 1:28:33
  I don't know what should listeners do I
• 1:28:37
  don't know watch the language does give continue
• 1:28:39
  to halt where it is, or do we
• 1:28:41
  hear something else?
• 1:28:44
  Tomahawks done frontline freeze on the table Zelensky
• 1:28:48
  Patriots no concessions Trump sells stop where you
• 1:28:52
  are Moscow hears both.
• 1:28:54
  Here's the same sentence if Budapest happens Expect
• 1:28:58
  silence not a treaty not a parade artillery
• 1:29:02
  Falling below threshold where headlines move on that
• 1:29:05
  may be unsatisfying to maximalists, but it might
• 1:29:10
  be life-saving to civilians who just want
• 1:29:13
  a warm apartment in January winter in Ukraine
• 1:29:20
  This is international flavor.
• 1:29:22
  I am Samuel trap.
• 1:29:25
  I Appreciate you joining me this evening.
• 1:29:27
  I hope you join me every night just
• 1:29:29
  because I like it If you go to
• 1:29:33
  internationalflavor.com, you can hear all past shows
• 1:29:36
  at your convenience and listen to them You
• 1:29:39
  can also hear them If you go to
• 1:29:42
  damn radio.com Forward slash podcasts as you
• 1:29:46
  can also hear other commentators on Damn radio
• 1:29:52
  .com.
• 1:29:53
  I appreciate you being here.
• 1:29:55
  Thanks for doing so damn