Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - 🔥Breaking: FED Leak Explains Flip📈 + Stock Market News 13 September 2024

Transcript

Felix Prehn - 🔥Breaking: FED Leak Explains Flip📈 + Stock Market News 13 September 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the echo on this live stream pre-market.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: We've got the Fed whisperer yes, the man who predicted every major Fed move in the last couple of years.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: He seems to have an inside track to the cat that lives at the Fed and he's just put out some stuff that is indicative of a Fed flip and some nice juicy rate cuts coming in which the market is very, very much enjoying, and I want you to understand those data points as well as some other really good reasons why rates are going to come down quicker.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: And then we look at how we make money out of that.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: We look at our favorite stocks and look at the charts, and I'll do my best to answer your questions.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: So ask them in the chat, after you have destroyed the like button, of course, because that makes the market go up undoubtedly, which, by the way, is looking pretty good.
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: They're looking overall pretty green here, a bit flattish in some of the big tech names, but nothing major, which is, of course, exactly what we want.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Nice level of consolidation.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: Any meta is down over a percentage point.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: Pretty much everything else is actually in the green here.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: So let me walk you through the data points here.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: I've taken screenshots of the reports.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: So we've got Nick Timiraos hard to pronounce, sounds Greek, doesn't it?
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Timiraos sounds Greek.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Anyway, this is the chap who is the Fed whisperer and he's been insanely, insanely accurate.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: And, of course, the question is just are we going to get a quarter percent cut or are we going to get a half a percent rate cut in the coming week?
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: And to me, raus said, recent data provided a mixed signal the Fed's outlook on economy providing a next meeting.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: But I could complicate things further.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: He basically accurately predicted each of the Fed's interest rate decisions since 2022, which is pretty staggering.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: So he does seem to have a friend on the inside, and media reports suggest that the Fed had even leaked its planned decisions to him.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Who's the Wall Street Journal's chief economics correspondent.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: Because they want to get their message out, so they're doing their PR job through them.
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: But he's saying the Fed is nervous about keeping interest rates high for too long.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: So they're worried if they keep it high for too long, they're going to cause that recession, which they don't want, because the economy is cooling basically polite way of putting you know things are sort of falling off a cliff here.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: So because they're trying to get that soft landing, which means they need a resilient labor market.
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: Here the rate cut could be somewhat bigger.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: And further to that little gossip mongering that's going on there here, dudley, who is it's a lovely name, isn't it Dudley?
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: Where does that come from?
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Some film, isn't it Dudley?
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Where's that from?
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Nevermind?
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: He's the former New York Fed chief, and Dudley says there's a strong case for a 50 basis point interest rate cut in the US, whether they're going to do it or not.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: And he said that at the Bretton Woods committee meeting here and he said rates were currently 150 to 200 basis points above the so-called neutral rate, which means they are currently super restrictive.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: So why don't you just get started?
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: And this has got markets somewhat fired up today, dudley Moore, yes, because the market, if we get a half a percent cut, is going to go absolutely bananas, but if we get a quarter point, I think it'll be somewhat disappointed.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: So you got to really watch out for that.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: Next week it's going to be a real like flipping moment there, in that Someone posting Palestinian flags.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Do you think this is the venue for it?
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Do you think this is some sort of weird political thing about Palestine?
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: It's not, my friend.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: This is what this is about.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: You're on the wrong channel.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: It's about making money for you so you get financial freedom.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: This is our teaching portfolio.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: It's up $28,000 this year so far on a $30,000 portfolio, which is about 93%.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: You want to learn how we do that?
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Well, here it is.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: I share my screen with you.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Finally, come and join me on Tuesday felixfrontsorg bootcamp and for about 90 minutes I'll boot you through our rules, our strategies For beginners.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: You don't need to know a thing literally never traded before.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: That's exactly why we're running this to give you an inside track into actually how Wall Street trades, how hedge funds trades, and it's much, much simpler than you think.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: So now you can Brilliant Okay.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: So there we are.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: So let me run you through a few more reasons why we are going to get pretty rapid rate cuts.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: This here is the US deficit in August for each of the last 12 years, and what you can see is that the 2024 August is a staggering something like what is that $370 billion deficit in just one month?
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Let me show you it in just one month.
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: Let me show you Well in red, you've got government spending which is at these levels here, which is kind of at levels of COVID.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Why the heck are we still spending money like it's COVID when it isn't?
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: And then you see receipts, which is tax money coming in, which is running at a much, much more moderate level.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: So you've got this gap here between taxes and spending and that is your deficit, which is extraordinarily large, really extraordinarily large.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: We really haven't seen that in peacetime ever, really outside of COVID.
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: So this is the problem.
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: Us interest payments are let me draw a line, this is starting in 2005.
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: And it sort of does that and that, and then it just goes absolutely up and it's going to go up and up and up and up unless you cut interest rates, and that's ultimately what's going to save the US government from basically going bust right.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: So we're in a war, are we?
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: Are we in a war?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: Who's at war with the US?
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Anyone's in the war with the US?
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Okay, there's some things going on that are wars that are chosen, basically, but I don't think the US is generally at war.
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: So again, come and learn how to make money with us.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: That's really what I'd say to you.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: So come and join us on Tuesday, learn how we are up $28,000 on our $30,000 portfolio this year, because that's what actually gets you to financial freedom.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: In my humble opinion, and after this choppy September, we're likely to get a choppy October.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: And this is just data out from I think Deutsche put this out this is October.
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: So October is typically horrible before election because we don't know who's going to get in and the market hates uncertainty.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: So everyone's going to pull their market, their money out because they're like well, why don't we just see and wait what happens?
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: That's kind of the approach.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: And everybody looks at the chart I'm just showing you and they go well, october is going to be bad, let's just chill.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: But what typically happens then is you get election day here, that line there, and then the party gets started again.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: As you come out of it and we realize whoever is the new guy or girl in power, they're probably not going to do anything particularly dramatic because typically they haven't got the majority for it and everything gets stuck in US law courts and all that kind of stuff.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: So usually governments do very, very little right, pretty much exactly what the previous lot did.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: So that's probably the outcome.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: So I would say November, december it looked pretty sweet and until then, just hold your horses.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: I think that's really the way I look at that.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: So the market's still in fear.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: And that's kind of interesting, isn't it?
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: Because, generally speaking, where do you want to buy?
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: When do you want to buy stocks?
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: If you're a long-term holder, you want to buy over here and you want to sell over there, right, right, if you do that, you buy low and you sell high.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: Now, of course, what most people do is that they buy over here and then they sell over there, which is why retail investors tend to massively underperform the market.
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: So don't be that Muppet.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Come and learn with us how you time these things better.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: And yes, there is some timing element.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: How to make money, buy and hold is a lie, right.
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Yes, there is some timing element.
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: How to make money, buy and hold is a lie, right.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: You do realize that If you have really great companies, it works for a period of time.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: I think Buffett's average length of holding, if I'm not mistaken, is something under five years.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: I think four and a half or something like that.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: So buy and hold is a myth.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: The only thing you can buy and hold is an index.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Yes, you can buy and hold the S&P or the NASDAQ, because the actual constituents, the people inside of it, the companies inside of it will change.
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: If you're holding individual stocks forever, it's probably a pretty bad idea.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: So Goldman Sachs says buy the AI.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: And I'm not telling you to do that, obviously.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying this is what Goldman Sachs is saying.
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: And they're saying the AI basket is lined up for a BTD.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Buy the dip.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Ai data centers and AI, pcs and mobile devices upgrades are going to do well.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: They think the broad AI basket is down 12% from year highs, but earnings are beating expectations.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: The Power Up America, which is basically energy companies and infrastructure companies to power the data centers, are also down 7% from year highs and At the same time, their earnings are beating by about 25% 24% comparing to expectations.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: So they're basically saying buy just a broad AI thing or buy AI hardware, buy AI power and buy AI PC and mobile device upgrades, which is sort of your Apple and your Dell and that kind of stuff.
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: So they're basically saying buy the freaking dip, because we've come down to relatively moderate levels.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: If you sort of draw a line here, this buy the freaking dip, because we've come down to relatively moderate levels.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: If you sort of draw a line here, this is the white one, we're back to January levels and so on.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: So you get the idea, are you okay?
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: Your voice is yeah, I don't know.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: I'm feeling a little bit all over the place at the moment.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: The voice seems to be going alongside with that, which is, I don't know why.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Very well, obviously I do know why.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: It's my lovely little pussycat that I miss.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: But it's good to get some distraction.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: So I do appreciate you guys distracting me here on this morning.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: So let's have a look at some of our favorite tech stocks and we'll start maybe with Tesla here.
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: Buying and holding Nvidia worked for a period of time.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: I'm not saying not holding is a bad idea.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, I hold a lot of Nvidia stocks for a period of time, but I don't think that just going I'm going to buy and hold this forever is going to really work.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: Very, very rarely works because things change right.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: So Tesla here, continuing very nicely that upward trend, even though it doesn't really feel like it, because we're kind of going sideways a little bit here.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: The resistance still sits in here at 230, 235.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: That's kind of our resistance zone.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: So what I normally like to do here in trade vision, I sort of put a box in there to remind myself that that's where the resistance sits and that also corresponds with the recent highs.
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: They're in that same zone, which just makes sense.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: The market is kind of a logical beast.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: And then we've got that resistance up here at 240, above that which is again here from market positioning.
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: So a little bit hard to crack that.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: But we're in optimistic, positive territory.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Moving averages are moving up.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: I think the market's probably going to just sit and wait till 10th of October, the robo taxi event, and it depends very, very much on how impressive that display is and how convincing they are that they're going to get those on the road in a reasonably short time frame.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Right, adobe had a miserable day.
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: Who just said that, mr simp?
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Their earnings disappointing.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: And adobe is a funny one.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: They always report their earnings very, very, very early, or very, very late, depending on how you look at that.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: So the stock taking an absolute nosedive.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: We're here at that blue line.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Yesterday we were up there, so we've dropped what?
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: 50 bucks.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, 10% down here this morning, which is just bonkers.
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: So that's of course, a warning sign.
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: That's, you know, get the heck out.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: And that's why.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: That's, you know, get the heck out.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: And that's why I always say you know, you see a little indicator here.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: Right, it said buy here at 5.30 something, and that was a good call.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Right, made a lot of money.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: But if you wait for the exit symbol you're not making much money.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: It's like here it said buy, nice, rally up.
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: If you then waited for the exit symbol you wouldn't have made any money or very little.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: So you've got to have your own exit rules so that, before it pulls back majorly, you are out and you're taking at least some profits, maybe to close half the trade or something like that.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn my exit rules on how we automate that, come and join me on Tuesday, felix Frenzel, oxygenized Bootcamp and I'll teach that to you.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: Boot camp and I'll teach that to you.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: So the problem here with adobe is that we're hoping that they would monetize ai, because they're kind of one of the early ones to integrate things like firefly, which generates nice pictures of, you know, creatures in the forest and that sort of thing, and they've integrated that into photoshop and everything else.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: But they don't seem to be really be able to monetize it properly yet, at least in the markets.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: Very much disappointed with that because we need we need software companies to make money out of ai so that there is continued spending on on nvidia type hardware, which nvidia looking much, much more positive here, broken through that 50-day moving average line, still trending down a little bit there.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: So it's probably still a little early for, at least from a trader's point of view.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: And then we have that resistance up here at sort of 130.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: But the immediate resistance sits at 120, that great big green middle finger there.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: That's really what we are looking at right now.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: So watch out for 120.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: 120 is what we need to break through for NVIDIA.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: Any other favorites we should look at?
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: Let's have a quick look at Palantir, which has been flying Very nice.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Just a little bit here pre-markets trading just below the $35.
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: Why you see that green line there at $35?
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: Those are call options.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: When it hits $35, people sell those call options and it means a market maker on the other side will sell Palantir stock and that's just the way it works.
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: If you understand that and you've got a little trade vision indicator here, you are in a better position to make better decisions.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: So it looks still very, very positive.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: Everything is sloping up.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: It's definitely a rally we just need to take.