Latest / Commodity Week / Aug 06 | Commodity Week
Transcript
- cw260806 The August 6 edition of Commodity Week features agricultural market analysis from Ellen Dearden and Naomi Blohm ahead of the upcoming USDA crop production and WASDE reports. The panelists anticipate the USDA will maintain corn and soybean yield estimates near 183 and 53 bushels per acre, respectively, while emphasizing the need to monitor how European drought conditions and South American El Niño weather patterns will impact global grain stocks. The discussion details critical technical trading thresholds for December corn and November soybeans, advising producers to employ defensive marketing strategies, while waiting for potential seasonal harvest lows. Finally, the analysts provide brief outlooks on the livestock sectors—noting strong dairy demand, stable but softening live cattle fundamentals, and a persistently weak hog market—and warn that ongoing geopolitical tensions remain a volatile risk to global agricultural trade. Panelists - Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com - Ellen Dearden, AgReview --- Todd Gleason: This is the August 6th edition of Commodity Week. announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: Welcome to Commodity Week. I am Todd Gleason. Our panelists for the day include Ellen Dearden of Ag Review; she is in Morton, Illinois, and Naomi Blohm is here from Total Farm Marketing at totalfarmmarketing.com; she is in West Bend, Wisconsin. Commodity Week is a production of Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at willag.org. There you will find our calendar of events, and it is full again next week. The State Fair starts here in the state of Illinois next week. Ag Day is Friday, the following Wednesday is the Governor’s Sale of Champions, plus there are many other events still coming up related to Agronomy Day and other University of Illinois Extension events. If you get into the wintertime months, particularly December, you will find that the Illinois Farm Economic Summits will be on the road as well. They have not officially been announced, but I do have the dates and places. We are adding Springfield, actually Sherman this year. So you will have Mount Vernon and Sherman, as well as Peoria and DeKalb for the Illinois Farm Economic Summits. Now, let’s get a list of items from our panelists to see what they would like to talk about for the day. Ellen Dearden at Ag Review, thank you for being with us. What is on your list? Ellen Dearden: With the Wednesday WASDE report and a lot of private estimates running around about what a corn yield will or won’t be, I think it is important to remember that at this stage of the game, it is pretty early to judge what a corn yield is going to be. The methods that USDA uses are just as nebulous as what everybody wants to talk about. Armchair looks of yields are out there. Todd Gleason: And then on your list, Naomi Blohm. Naomi Blohm: Building on what Ellen said regarding the WASDE next week, looking at the domestic side of production, but really curious to see what the USDA does with global production numbers, especially wanting to keep an eye on Europe with corn production, with wheat production, and every single category of growth in wheat production around the world. We need to keep an eye on that just in terms of how it sets the stage up for prices for the latter part of 2026 and heading into 2027. And then just helping producers be ready for whatever comes out of that report. Todd Gleason: Let’s talk about the reports next week, Ellen Dearden. We will start with the crop production figures. They will be released at 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday morning next week. As you said, USDA will have a corn forecast. There are a wide variety of numbers; you can talk about those. But let’s begin with how they collect the data on this one. This one does not, and no longer has for some time now, include actual counts taken on the ground. That won’t happen until September. USDA has not done a horrible job, I don’t think, you will need to give me your opinion on this, of getting a fairly sound number in August since they have dropped that. I think they actually have a fairly good track record when you compare August to January numbers as well. What are you thinking about it this time? Ellen Dearden: I think we need to keep in mind that they may shift planted and harvested acres as well as yield. My feeling is the way USDA uses satellite photos is going to be from space, whether stuff looks green or doesn’t look green. That is kind of a hard sell for me to think that that is a good way to make judgments. There will be some drive-by looks at fields, but primarily looking at a lot of satellite data. So I won’t be surprised to see USDA hold their corn yields pretty close to that 183 that they set as a trendline yield earlier this year. That won’t be a surprise to me. I think we will see acres shaved, planted acres shaved, however, in corn. Todd Gleason: Are you hearing rumblings, Ellen, from producers about nitrogen loss in their fields? I frankly didn’t hear that until I was at a physiology function today on campus, and the soil fertility specialist I talked with yesterday, and aired during the closing market report on Thursday, doesn’t agree with that, I don’t think. He is of a mind that we have a pretty normal crop in mind. But producers seem to be looking for reasons for this crop yield to be lower, and it feels like it may be a falsehood. I don’t know. Ellen Dearden: I think that is probably right, Todd. Producers always like to talk about, well, my field looks okay, but my neighbor’s is really terrible. That seems to be the normal look to see. Yes, I think there is some denitrification. I don’t know how widespread it is because in the area around Peoria, we didn’t get the big rains that a lot of people got, like in Vermilion County, Illinois. As you go west, decidedly drier west of I–39, and decidedly wetter as you go east of 155. So there are a lot of good corn acres between those two interstates. Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm, you have been listening along. What are you thinking about next week’s crop production report? Naomi Blohm: Ellen hit the nail on the head for so many facets of the report. I agree with her on the yield number. I feel like USDA likely keeps that yield number for corn between 183 and 184, just coinciding with more of the private industry recent satellite imagery data and what they feel that the yields could be out there potentially. As far as the bean number goes, a lot of people are saying this recent rain that came through is definitely helping their bean crop. So the 53 number from the USDA, I think, is probably not going to see too much adjustment there either. I am curious about the FSA acre numbers to see what that does for any acreage slight changes, if any. And then looking over at the global picture, I am very, very curious, like I had said earlier, just what the USDA does with some of the global numbers. Admittedly, I did not understand the magnitude of the drought in Europe in early July, but it continues now today with heat warnings across a large portion of Europe yet again today. The drought there continues, and that really has taken a chunk of production from corn and from wheat. So that likely is going to bring global production numbers lower and global ending stocks lower. Now you have a situation where it has been a hot minute since we have had lower global production and lower global ending stocks. So it might just set the stage for the United States needing to have a really good crop right now, or we could further see global ending stocks start to trend lower. That just sets the whole stage for the latter part of 2026 heading into 2027, having to keep an eye on what is happening with production in Brazil and Argentina in December, January, and February. I want to really scrutinize each line item of global production when it comes to wheat on that report next week along with the United States information. I want to look at what the USDA does for corn production around the world as well, looking also very specifically at China, what they think China corn production may be, or any potential increase or decrease with Chinese imports. Lots of information coming at us Wednesday, and I think it will really set the stage for the rest of the third quarter and then going into the fourth quarter as well. Todd Gleason: Ellen, will you be watching those global numbers as closely? Is this something that has been on your radar for a while? Ellen Dearden: It has been on my radar, and if you talk to anybody that has been to Europe this summer, all they do is talk about they were unable to get into different areas because of heat warnings or because of wildfires or whatever. From a corn standpoint, France is the largest corn producer in the EU, so I think we need to keep that in mind, but wheat is still on the radar as well. Todd Gleason: Okay, so we will be watching that to see what those numbers look like. And then those would be in the WASDE or the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, that will put us after the fact. I do want to talk to both of you about the next several days, Friday, which we are recording before that, Monday, Tuesday, and then Wednesday morning, and how the trade tries to navigate the moving averages, particularly, I think it is the 100-day in the soybeans and the 50-day in the corn, and whether it decides to sit and wait it out, or whether there will just be enough pressure to make that breakthrough to the downside. Naomi, I will start with you on this one. What do you think? Naomi Blohm: I have been watching that all week. We had December corn futures yesterday and today trade at or slightly below the 50-day moving average and approach the 40-day moving average. On the December corn daily chart, that number that we are watching is the 457 area. I am very curious to see if there is going to be any sell stops below that because the computer sometimes can sniff out those sell stops, and then we could just see a technical sell-off happen. For the past two days, it has tested that important level and it has held, and that is really important. But if by chance Friday or Monday, Tuesday that support level fails, the downside for December corn very quickly points to 450, and you could argue a quick technical washout closer to 440, again based only on technical trading. But if we can hold this 457 area into the weekend, it will be helpful for next week, and then we might just see quiet trade next week Monday and Tuesday ahead of the WASDE. To your point then on the beans, it is the same thing where we are watching support at 1175 and 1170 on the November specifically. That is where the 100-day moving average is. So if that should fail, if we see technical selling, the quick washout lower points to about 1150, which would be the bottom of an uptrending line. Technical trading probably is a bigger theme in the next couple days as overall the news might be lacking until we get to Wednesday’s report. Todd Gleason: And Ellen, if you want to talk about that and the fundamentals surrounding moving through the month of August and into harvest season and what kind of pressure comes with it. Ellen Dearden: I just like to throw out on the corn side of things, the last two years at the WASDE report, we made a low in December corn and we were down into that $4 range. So being tonight above 460 is somewhat encouraging. We were really dull today. We were just quiet. Even though we rallied corn and soybeans, we did it with no conviction. I don’t like days like that from a standpoint, I want to be friendly. I am looking too at just, we have good demand on the corn side of things, we can’t quibble with that. We have good demand from a processor standpoint on the beans. But we are unable to find enough bullish news to push things up or to find really good support. If this is a head and shoulders top formation in the corn, which you could argue for on December corn with a neckline here just at that 457 level, that could take you down to four and a quarter. But again, it is still above that $4 level that we tested the last two years. Todd Gleason: What are you telling producers at this point about grain that they have to move across the scale, grain that is going in the bin? What kinds of advice do you have for them, Ellen? Ellen Dearden: The guys that I am kind of worried about are the ones that have to move more crop into the elevator right at harvest. I hate paying the elevator to store corn, but I think that we will see basis improvement this year into the spring. I think we will see some board improvement into the spring. So I am wanting to tuck away bushels that I have places for. That still doesn’t put a plan together for bushels that I have to take to town. Right now, we own some puts, and I think that is a good way to go through this report, long puts, short some $5 calls on the December, and I think that is just a good way to go through this report. Todd Gleason: Naomi, what advice have you been giving producers today? Naomi Blohm: Real similar. Holding the long puts that we have had for a while here, just getting through the report in case there is a negative surprise. But I am also looking for that seasonal harvest low, which a lot of times for December corn the past few years has happened between mid-August and late August. So watching for signs of that. I would say for folks who are selling corn right now, old crop corn that they have to take to town here, when we see signs of a harvest low or a technical low, I would really start to look at re-ownership strategies again just because the fundamentals have shifted. It used to be bearish. I was really bearish in June, but now because of this drought in Europe, I have shifted to a neutral mentality, and it could become quite friendly for the grain markets for December, January, and February again depending on South American weather and how this U.S. crop ultimately fares. Make sure you are in tune with all the marketing strategies available to you, and it is going to be very interesting what the USDA has to say on Wednesday. Todd Gleason: I believe September 1 is the date that producers in Mato Grosso would be able to actually begin planting. They do have a date at which they have to wait. It is related to Asian soybean rust. It used to be the 15th, and sometimes it does change, but I think it is probably the first of the month. They will wait to plant until there are some rainfalls in that area. An El Niño, particularly I suppose a super El Niño, Ellen, could cause them to stay drier longer and maybe stay dry for the season. This must be something that you have been watching and thinking about and what it means for soybeans too. How do you view that marketplace? Ellen Dearden: Looking at the driest areas to be in the southern part of Brazil rather than in central or northern Brazil. But I think it bears watching because an El Niño, let alone a super El Niño like we have in the making this year, certainly leans things to the dry side in both Argentina and in southern Brazil. Todd Gleason: Ellen, how do the fundamentals in the beef marketplace look for you today? Ellen Dearden: Let’s see, we have cattle right now on feed, I think they look fabulous. But the market sold off pretty easily. We had a couple of days higher, but the market has sold off pretty easily. The guys that I am working with right now are getting more concerned about calves that they intend to sell this fall. It is a big market time for calves in September and October in this neck of the woods, and they certainly are seeing the market all over the place. But I think the fundamentals are still reasonably good on the live cattle. Whether we just kind of got ahead of ourselves, the cutouts have been a little bit on the softer side, we had a sharp up day yesterday in the cutouts, but by and large, the cutouts are down just a hair. Todd Gleason: And Naomi, I don’t often ask about dairy, but because you are in dairy country and I know you work with them closely, what are your dairy producers thinking and what are you worried about for them today? Naomi Blohm: The theme in dairy right now just continues to be huge amounts of production of milk. That is because we have more cows milking because of the beef on dairy situation, so those calves are precious commodities and keeping the dairy market afloat, but it is still leading to higher productions of milk. Thankfully, demand for dairy products remains strong both domestically and on the export front. But I think the reality is that we are going to likely see Class III milk futures maybe just trade in a lackluster sideways pattern. Lackluster for milk is a dollar range, by the way. But that would be my outlook for now because we still have the same situation of higher production. Maybe we will see a pullback because of the heat we have had this summer, but we have plenty of cows available and milking. Quiet markets there is my thought for the short term, but again, dairy demand is phenomenal. Todd Gleason: And now time for a final word from each of you. Ellen Dearden, I will start with you. Your final word for the day? Ellen Dearden: The hog market looks terrible. It is really difficult for me to understand how we haven’t seen a big surge in demand for hogs, for pork at the retail counter because it certainly is priced well, but the futures really do not look promising at all. Todd Gleason: And Naomi Blohm, your final word. Naomi Blohm: Keep an eye on those geopolitical events. One flare-up in the Middle East or in the Black Sea region can always trump anything that is happening with the production side of agriculture in the short term, so really stay in tune to those markets as well. Todd Gleason: Commodity Week is a production of Illinois Public Media. You may find and listen to the whole of the program anytime you’d like at willag.org. Our thanks go to our panelists this week, including Ellen Dearden from Ag Review; she is in Morton, Illinois, and Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing at totalfarmmarketing.com, out of West Bend, Wisconsin. Thank you for listening. I am University of Illinois Extension’s Todd Gleason.