Latest / The Learning Corner by Precursor / Episode #31: Do We Need a VC Prenup?, Lightspeed Becomes an RIA, Financing the AI Revolution

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Episode #31: Do We Need a VC Prenup?, Lightspeed Becomes an RIA, Financing the AI Revolution · The Learning Corner by Precursor

• 0:00
  I've talked to founders who feel this same frustration, which is, hey.
• 0:04
  I signed up for the venture capital rocket ship.
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  Now that I know more about my business, it isn't one of those.
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  How do I get off?
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  It's the week of May 5.
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  Welcome to the Learning Corner, a Ventures podcast.
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  Welcome to The Learning Corner by Precursor.
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  I'm Mia Farnam, and I am joined by our GP and managing partner, Charles Hudson, where we will
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  be talking through the articles and Goodreads that caught our team's attention over the past
• 0:34
  week.
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  This week, we're also lucky enough to have one of our awesome graduate school interns, Leon,
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  join us in our virtual studio.
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  Welcome, Leon.
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  I always learn so much from our discussions.
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  Thank you for letting me join this week.
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  Excited to jump in.
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  Cool.
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  So our first topic is a blog post from Edited Capital titled, we need a VC prenup creating
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  off ramps for tech businesses.
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  It addresses a growing tension in venture.
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  What happens when a startup no longer fits the traditional scale or die model, but still has a
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  viable business?
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  The Post proposes that instead of forcing a binary outcome, either raise more capital or
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  shut down, we should develop better off ramps for founders.
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  Written from the POV of a PE firm, this obviously could include private equity
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  acquisitions or growth buyouts that allow a company to keep operating even if it doesn't
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  have venture scale upside.
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  It's a really compelling argument in a time when we're seeing venture evolve with new
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  instruments, secondaries, liquidity tools, giving founders more optionality.
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  But historically, private equity and early stage VC live in separate universes.
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  We're starting to see a little bit of a blurring of lines between late stage growth,
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  crossover capital, and then earlier PE moves.
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  Perhaps this becomes more of a natural step.
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  You know, we've talked about this and how the eventually goes to some seems to be growing up.
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  We're seeing more continuity between early stage VC and PE firms rather than the more
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  traditional graduations to late stage venture.
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  Do you think that's a good thing?
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  What kinds of relationships should early stage funds be building with downstream capital
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  partners today?
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  I mean, I read through the article, and I was like, yes.
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  We already have many companies that, with the best intentions, will fall off the venture
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  rocket ship.
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  And, you know, I've talked to founders who feel this same frustration, which is like, hey.
• 2:11
  I signed up for the venture capital rocket ship.
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  Now that I know more about my business, it isn't one of those.
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  How do I get off?
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  And I think the author is right.
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  We don't have a good off ramp.
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  And I think some of this is just the structural differences in what makes a good venture
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  capital investment and what makes a good PE investment.
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  And, you know, we have companies in our portfolio that are trying to navigate this.
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  They're growing, but they're not growing fast enough to maybe unlock the next round.
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  But they're not companies that in under any circumstances should be shut down.
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  And the difficulty is actually in how do you take a company where most of the product and
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  operating decisions that were made for the first couple of years were all oriented toward
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  growth.
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  The hiring plan, the product development plan, the business model, the pry were all oriented
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  towards growth.
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  And then you have to sort of, like, in midair, change gears and say, all the things we were
• 3:00
  focused on, growth, and, you know, now we're to our profitability.
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  We're gonna flip our whole mindset.
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  If you wanna get on that PE path because that's a path that does prioritize financial
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  performance, profitability, operational excellence.
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  And you also think that the other thing that's missing here is for that to even be on the
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  table, you have to hit some minimum scale.
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  Maybe it's $10,000,000.
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  Maybe it's $5,000,000.
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  Maybe it's 20.
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  There's some minimum scale.
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  So I would argue that we have a good off ramp right now for companies that are not on the
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  venture trajectory but are subscale.
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  Those companies should shut down or sell.
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  So if you can't get to a couple million in ARR and you've raised VC, the most likely outcome
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  for your business is shut down or sale.
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  And I think as you get to the ten or fifteen million dollar revenue market, it gets more
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  interesting because then you could build a business that's more profitable.
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  That could be a tuck in acquisition that could be interesting to PE.
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  But oftentimes, I find the people who are interested in signing up for fast growth are
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  not necessarily the people who are interested in or best suited to run the more profitable,
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  slower growing version of the same company.
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  Elaborating on that last part that you mentioned, at the earliest stages when we come
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  in, have there been signals that you've seen that you can almost tell years before that
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  perhaps divergence in the road occurs that this could be potentially a great route for a
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  private equity kind of path or buyout versus this is a company that's either going to shoot
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  off and grow rocket ship wise or will be shut down.
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  Because I think we're gonna be starting to straddle the middle road a lot, so it'll be
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  figuring out how to discern between the two paths quickly.
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  I mean, historically, the answer has been, if you're a venture capitalist, you should try to
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  screen out those companies that you think are gonna get on this path, and you should avoid
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  them.
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  Yeah.
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  And when I read a lot of the things about seed strapping that people are writing, I don't know
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  how much of that is aspirational versus it's actually actionable.
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  There are more people I've talked to, and I I've come around this.
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  We're gonna have two kinds of venture backed companies.
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  We're gonna have companies that raise $10,000,000 or less and figure out how to get
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  on their own self sustaining, ideally, high growth path.
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  And then we're gonna have companies that raise as much money as humanly possible, and I don't
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  think we're gonna have that much in between.
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  And the question for the companies in the middle is gonna be, can you still get
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  attractive outcomes if you raise a little bit of money?
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  I think about companies like Buffer and others that have been fairly judicious in the amount
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  of money they've raised and are still, even in our own portfolio, healthy.
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  Like, there are companies I think there is not an inherent tension between being capital
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  efficient and growing.
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  It's funny.
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  Back in the stone ages of venture, companies got profitable, like, fairly early in their
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  life.
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  It was an important step to make sure that the business actually worked because you were gonna
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  take that company public someday, and we've we're pretty far away from that.
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  When did that change?
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  Can you harken back to those days and about
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  what happened?
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  Thousands.
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  It's like everyone's like, well, growth is more important.
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  We'll solve profitability later.
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  We never sort of came back to that in the venture business.
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  There was so much more money that's coming to the business.
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  There are people who will finance longer stretches of upside down financial performance
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  than before.
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  It used to be you had to fix this stuff because the next person in the chain demanded it, and
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  now you can go pretty far in your life as a private company without solving for
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  profitability.
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  My last question for this one is what role should we as early stage investors play in
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  helping our founders navigate this decision?
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  Is there a clear duty of care to helping them explore off ramps, or are we still too anchored
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  to the power law model?
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  And is this just something that's happening now more than ever, just given all of the
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  conversation around liquidity and need from LPs, etcetera?
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  I don't think most VCs want to be in this business.
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  When say this business, I mean the business of working with companies that they've invested in
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  that are subscale, but maybe there's an alternative path.
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  I think most VCs I know wanna spend their money and time on the rocket ship companies.
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  But I do think there's this duty of care that, you know, if you made a commitment to a founder
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  to work with them, it hopefully was a thick and thin commitment.
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  And I wonder if firms will start to in the same way as they added board partners, I wonder if
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  some firms will just say, hey.
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  Look.
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  These companies require a different set of resources, a different set of guidance.
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  I wanna spend my time on the high growth stuff.
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  We're gonna bring in an operating partner whose job it is to be the board member and shepherd
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  these companies to the second path.
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  Because I think right now, the belief is that second path is a lower scale outcome path.
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  If you get a few of those things that really pop, attention follows money, and GC firms will
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  pay a lot more attention to those companies.
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  Well, it's a great bridge from my point of view into our next topic.
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  Bloomberg reported last week that LightSpeed Venture Partners has officially become
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  investment adviser, an IRA, joining other larger firms like Sequoia, Andres and Horowitz,
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  and General Catalyst, and evolving beyond the traditional venture capital model.
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  This move enables Lightspeed to invest in a broader range of assets beyond just start up
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  equity, including secondaries, public stocks, crypto, and AI led roll ups without being
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  limited to this 20% cap that typically applies to non RIA firms.
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  This shift underscores a larger transformation in the venture ecosystem as larger firms adopt
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  PE style strategies and blur the lines between venture capital, private equity, and asset
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  management.
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  This reclassification reflects the growing consensus that venture capital, especially at
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  scale, is becoming more diversified in structure, strategy, and ambition, and that
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  traditional VC alone may no longer be able to meet the expectations of LPs or the operational
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  goals of larger firms.
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  Charles, from your perspective, are these firms setting the pace for what the future of venture
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  looks like, or are they simply outliers playing a completely different game altogether?
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  I think that all of the big firms that aren't RIAs are going to become RIAs for a couple
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  reasons.
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  The nice thing about being what's called an exempt adviser is as long as you're a venture
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  capital firm or no more than 20% of your activity is in the areas you mentioned, you
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  have a much lighter regulatory compliance burden with the SEC, with other regulators too.
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  So if you're a small venture firm like Precursor, it means you don't have to have a
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  full on compliance team, and we don't have to have a compliance person editing the learning
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  quarter to make sure we're not making a forward looking or marketing.
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  It's just easier, but it's a limiting factor.
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  And I think this is, as you highlighted, it's a function of venture getting bigger.
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  And, you know, below a certain scale, the trade off between being exempt but being limited in
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  the products you can offer is probably a good trade off for most firms, unless you really
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  wanna do crypto or secondaries.
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  And now I think these firms are like, well, we're not really venture capital per se.
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  We are broadly diversified asset management firms that are anchored in venture capital as
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  our core product.
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  In the same way that, like, BlackRock is a multi asset firm, a lot of the PE firms have
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  private credit arms now.
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  And I think this opens the door for a couple of things.
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  One, you've already seen General Catalyst essentially start to acquire other venture
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  firms.
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  I think you will see registered investment adviser VC firms acquire other adjacent
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  businesses.
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  You know, two of the three firms you mentioned already have or will have wealth management
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  practices on their own platforms.
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  I expect they will look a lot less like venture capital firms.
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  I also think if the management I have no reason to believe this is true.
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  I have no inside information.
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  If the management of those firms have any interest in going public or being acquired by a
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  larger private equity firm.
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  All the people who would buy them are registered, and in order to go public, they
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  would likely need to be registered.
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  And the last thing I'll say is it's very clear to me that the largest firms in our industry
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  plan to continue to get bigger.
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  And at some point, the only way to get bigger is you have to have products other than venture
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  capital under your umbrella.
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  So I think this was like the natural evolution for these firms, given their desire to grow AUM
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  and, you know, to scale.
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  How do you think this affects the way early stage firms, like precursor, are perceived by
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  founders and LPs to create pressure at the GP level to expand scope of our offerings, or is
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  staying focused still a good competitive strategy?
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  I think it's actually quite smart of these firms to register.
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  Because at some point, you know, we've spent the last two years being like, what is venture
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  capital?
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  Like, what counts?
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  And I think these firms are like, well, whatever a venture capital does is venture
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  capital.
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  But even that has a ceiling.
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  So at some point, you're like, we're actually not a venture firm.
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  We are a broadly diversified private investment firm.
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  And at some point, I'm sure these folks will dabble in other things like private credit or
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  maybe even public equities.
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  But at some point, you're just like, we're so big that we're not just a venture capital firm,
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  so that's the wrong label.
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  I'm very curious to see what these folks decide to call these new businesses.
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  Most of the terms have been pejorative, and most of the pejorative terms have come from
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  little VC funds, asset gatherers, you know, investment banks, you know, all all designed to
• 11:01
  poke fun at their size and scale.
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  And given how many smart people there are, I think somebody at one of those places is gonna
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  rebrand these mega funds as some new cool sounding asset in service of raising more
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  money.
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  Last question here because we talked about LPs, GP.
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  For founders with this sort of move, what should this mean for them if they're engaging
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  with different funds who are considering these new types of ways to diversify?
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  And also, does it matter from their perspective?
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  I don't think it matters today Yeah.
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  Because even though a lot of these firms are branching into other things, you know,
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  secondaries is very much still in the lane of venture.
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  Crypto can be, but doesn't have to be in the lane of venture.
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  I would argue despite their size, most of these firms still have venture capital, an early
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  stage venture capital as an important piece of what they do.
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  It's not impossible to imagine a world five to ten years from now where venture is less than
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  half of the AUM and activity at these firms.
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  They've got so many other businesses.
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  And then you start to ask yourself, as a founder, do I wanna be at a firm where venture
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  is the main event, do I wanna be an only event, or do I wanna be at a firm where venture is a
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  part of what they do?
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  Historically, founders have chosen the pure play over the side hustle VC thing.
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  I don't know if that will continue to be the case because if you could still get Marc
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  Andreessen or Roloff on your board, even though Sequoia and Andreessen are much bigger firms, I
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  think most founders would be like, I don't care how much time he spends on, you know, Sequoia
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  Heritage or Andreessen Perennials.
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  As long as he's got time for my board meeting and he's giving me advice, I'm in.
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  It makes me think about those funds that are kind of in the middle, so not small, not mega
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  yet, where their minds will go after seeing these mega funds create more diversified
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  strategies around how they move money.
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  I'm curious to know where they will lean.
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  I think a lot of people have deep questions about if you think about the barbell, I think
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  most people can tell you a story about what happens on either end.
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  I think the middle and most people are like, is that a sustainable place to live?
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  What does it mean to be one of those firms?
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  And I think that's the next unanswered question in venture.
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  What happens to the three hundred and fifty to seven hundred and fifty million dollar series a
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  focused venture fund?
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  Like, is that a model that works today?
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  In our final piece, the information shares highlights from their recent events on the
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  state of AI today and where investors examined whether top AI companies were the next Googles
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  or Yahoos.
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  Even as enormous amounts of capital are flowing into foundational models like OpenAI and
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  Anthropic, many investors still remain uncertain about things like monetization,
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  enterprise adoption, and sustainable differentiation.
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  The piece really noted that many AI companies actually haven't found their AdWords moment
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  yet.
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  In other words, many companies are still using subscriptions as a stopgap as they figure out
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  monetization.
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  And the current state of AI revenue is unpredictable.
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  Enterprise adoption is cautious and picks and shovels infrastructure plays like GPU, rental,
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  data centers carry significant risk, and then geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty only
• 13:46
  continue to add to those challenges.
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  Across your career, Charles, you've seen multiple technology cycles, Internet, cloud,
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  mobile.
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  You know, investors are overlaying those learnings from these past cycles as a lens to
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  make sense of the current AI waves.
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  But what are some of the themes from previous cycles that still hold true today?
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  As you know, Leanne, I have a lot of maybe out of step views, and I'll tell you as I I've told
• 14:07
  the team.
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  My lesson from February is everybody was pretty much directionally right about what the
• 14:12
  Internet was gonna mean for the economy and society.
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  If anything, we underestimated the potential.
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  People hadn't really thought through.
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  Really, the consumer commerce opportunities in Internet were were obvious.
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  I don't think we really knew how much we would use the Internet to communicate, and I think no
• 14:25
  one I knew had really pieced together what does the Internet plus mobile mean for just, like,
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  redefining communication site?
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  And I say we were directionally right because we were totally wrong on the timeline.
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  If you look at the just ironically, amounts of money that were lit on fire in, we'll call it,
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  '97 to 02/2001, it felt big because the scale of the venture business was much smaller then.
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  We could light that amount of money on Fire Today and Venture and probably not notice.
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  So one is the never confuse, basically, being directionally correct with getting timing
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  right.
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  And as I've told many of you, I have deep concerns that our enthusiasm about AI is
• 14:58
  directionally correct, but we're one generation of companies too soon for all of the pieces.
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  And when I say all the pieces, it's not just the technology.
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  It's the business model.
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  It's distribution.
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  It's user behavior.
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  It there's, like, a lot of things that have to you know, I I was talking with someone about
• 15:13
  the differences between Webvan and Instacart.
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  And aside from Instacart not having warehouses and all these other things, Instacart happened
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  after Uber.
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  It wasn't just a technology shift.
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  There had been a behavior shift that people were used to getting stuff delivered on their
• 15:25
  phone.
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  There were other companies that had figured out some of the like, a lot of stuff had been
• 15:29
  figured out, and it wasn't just the technology piece.
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  So one is the direction and timing are really important.
• 15:34
  The other thing is it oftentimes takes time to figure out where the real value capture
• 15:40
  opportunities are in a new ecosystem.
• 15:43
  In the Internet, everyone was like, oh, I wanna be infrastructure.
• 15:47
  And then it turned out that, like, there are people who built data centers, and for a while,
• 15:50
  that was a good idea.
• 15:51
  Then it turned out that building routers was a good idea.
• 15:53
  So if you were Cisco or Juniper and building the plumbing, but maybe laying fiber in the
• 15:57
  ground and trying to operate fiber wasn't as good at business even though we really needed
• 16:01
  fiber.
• 16:01
  And I I say this because when I look at AI, I don't have really any doubts that directionally
• 16:06
  it's gonna be a transformative technology and probably on a faster time cycle than mobile or
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  cloud, which I would argue were fifteen to twenty year cycles before we really had the
• 16:17
  plumbing in place.
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  But even if it's twice as fast and it takes seven years, that to me suggests there's a lot
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  of companies that are being funded that will not make it.
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  And the other thing is, from those other cycles, is exuberance.
• 16:27
  There's a period of time where people are like, I just need to invest in this theme.
• 16:30
  And if you read that article from The Information, my takeaway is a lot of people
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  don't have a well developed thesis on how this is all gonna play out.
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  They're just like, this is the hot thing, and my job as a venture capital investor is to
• 16:43
  invest in the hot thing and hope that when the dust settles and we figure this out, that I'm
• 16:48
  in the right companies.
• 16:49
  That's really not how I operate.
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  So we're taking the risk of just saying the alternative path is you do some investing in
• 16:55
  this theme, but you also wait until you have enough clarity around what you think works and
• 16:59
  where you think value is gonna accrue, that you start investing in those companies.
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  So if you'd waited and done sort of some of the second generation Internet stuff, you would
• 17:06
  pick up some good companies.
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  For example, once we knew that the web server was an important piece of the three tier
• 17:11
  architecture, they were really great company.
• 17:13
  Once we figured out that, you know, gen one website builders like Angel Fire and those
• 17:17
  weren't really that valuable.
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  But with some Squarespace, like in a lot of cases, you waited and said there will be a
• 17:23
  better version of this thing that comes along, you could have made a lot of money.
• 17:25
  I wanna go back to that example that you had about Uber and Instacart and how Instacart
• 17:29
  started later and that behavior change for from a consumer perspective laid the groundwork and
• 17:34
  a really strong foundation for it to be successful.
• 17:36
  What do you think needs to happen from a consumer standpoint when we think about AI?
• 17:42
  And when I think about consumer, yes, I think individual people using them, but also on the b
• 17:46
  to b side as well, companies, etcetera, in order for folks to feel like there's going to
• 17:50
  be a stronghold and people will know how to actually use leverage and build upon these.
• 17:56
  I think it's kind of like Internet search.
• 17:57
  I think in the beginning, people didn't know how to use the Internet.
• 18:00
  They didn't know how to use Google to search.
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  But there was a set of people who understood Boolean operators and understood how to write a
• 18:05
  good query.
• 18:06
  And if this sounds like prompt engineering, it reminds me a lot of it.
• 18:09
  There were people who were, like, more skilled in using the tool, and those people were able
• 18:12
  to get a lot more out of it.
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  And eventually, people understood, I'm gonna have to know how to use this in my job and in
• 18:19
  my life.
• 18:19
  I'd argue most people still aren't that good at searching for information on the Internet, but
• 18:23
  it would be embarrassing to say you don't know how to use Google today.
• 18:26
  I don't know that it's embarrassing to say you're not good at ChatGPT today.
• 18:29
  Don't know if it's embarrassing at all.
• 18:30
  And I think right now, the funny thing is investors and people who use this stuff a lot
• 18:34
  are reasonably skilled at getting good information out of ChatGPT, and they're getting
• 18:38
  a lot of leverage out of it or or Anthropic or LAMA, whatever you wanna use.
• 18:42
  But most people aren't.
• 18:43
  But most people also don't have to be good at it yet.
• 18:46
  And so I think what needs to happen is most people need to get comfortable and familiar
• 18:50
  with AI.
• 18:51
  And that might not be typing into a text box.
• 18:53
  It might be talking to a device.
• 18:54
  It might be voice is the thing that unlocks it for people.
• 18:57
  It might take Apple getting AI right to cross that Rubicon.
• 19:00
  But I think once people are like, I use AI regularly to do stuff.
• 19:03
  I think right now, it's students and knowledge workers on either end are really maybe for
• 19:08
  maybe for different reasons.
• 19:09
  Knowledge workers may be out of fear and a desire to be more productive, and students out
• 19:13
  of a desire to do well, I won't say.
• 19:14
  To do better in school, we'll say.
• 19:16
  And I think for the people in the middle, it doesn't feel urgent or necessary to be good at
• 19:20
  AI yet.
• 19:20
  And I think once people are used to using it, you can take for granted that people will know
• 19:24
  what to do with AI enabled products.
• 19:25
  And I think right now, that's just not true.
• 19:27
  And there's a difference between playing around with products versus weaving them into your day
• 19:30
  to day life.
• 19:31
  There's so much more to be discussed there, I'm really excited to see how it all turns out.
• 19:35
  But we are all out of time for today.
• 19:37
  Thank you, Charles, for joining in.
• 19:38
  Thank you, Neon, for joining in as well.
• 19:41
  We will talk with everyone next week, but please like and subscribe in the meantime.
• 19:45
  Thank you.
• 19:45
  Bye.
• 19:46
  Bye.
• 19:47
  Bye.