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Navigating Market Uncertainty: The Impact of Trump's Tariff Changes · Earn Your Leisure

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  Speaker 2: All right, let's let's get to it. So we're gonna
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: talk about let's talk about in video and video committed
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: five hundred. Well before we talk about in the video,
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: let's talk about the Trump tariffs again. So over the
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: weekend they said that there was a given exemption for
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  Speaker 2: smartphones and computer chips, and that was very welcomed by
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: the technology sector. It said ninety days and then yesterdays
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  Speaker 2: they came out and said that it'll be a special
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  Speaker 2: tariff for semiconductors, that this is only temporary. Pretty much
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  Speaker 2: dampered the whole party. So the market as a result,
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  Speaker 2: it wasn't as bullish today as people thought it might
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  Speaker 2: have been if they didn't make that announcement. So okay
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  Speaker 2: for the investors, that's wondering, how come they didn't wait
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: to make this announcement. How come maydn't make the first
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  Speaker 2: announcement on Monday and at least give people an opportunity
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  Speaker 2: to exit some positions and then maybe rain on the
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  Speaker 2: parade on Wednesday.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, he's given all of his friends allegedly and
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  Speaker 3: what to buy. Shout out to all the congress people
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  Speaker 3: and politicians who bought calls on Apple and in video
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  Speaker 3: as a result, better course for you since you go
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: rough of office in the next one. Well how do
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  Speaker 3: you think he keeps changing course so quickly? Like I
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: have to go to chat GBT clause oupen on manness,
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  Speaker 3: Like what's the reason behind all of this chaos? And
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  Speaker 3: I'm not proberly on Trump's episode, but I don't understand
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  Speaker 3: why you put out positive news and then the next
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  Speaker 3: day damper it.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure. I don't think anybody really knows.
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  Speaker 2: I think it's a very erratic behavior and it's frustrating
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  Speaker 2: to like market insiders and hedge fund managers and stuff
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  Speaker 2: like that, because it's like, you know, Dan ives extremely
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: happy when they had that announcement that he said, it's
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: like playing golf and they moving the tea in the
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: ninth and the ninth or the eighteenth green. So it's
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: just it's it's very complicated and it's difficult because it's like,
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  Speaker 2: you know, we don't know. But we spoke to an
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  Speaker 2: executive at a car company during the All Star week
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  Speaker 2: and this is before the tariffs thing came out, and
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  Speaker 2: he said that it's extremely difficult to do business because
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  Speaker 2: we don't we don't know the rules. So you can,
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  Speaker 2: you can once you know the rules and you can
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  Speaker 2: play the game, but when the rules keep changing, that
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  Speaker 2: becomes extremely difficult to play the game. So you know,
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  Speaker 2: when you say that there's a pauseon tariffs for electronics,
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  Speaker 2: smartphones and chips, and that's that's encouraging news for technology,
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  Speaker 2: but then when you come out two days later and
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  Speaker 2: say that there's going to be a special tariff just
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  Speaker 2: for chips, when that's discouraging news. So within a forty
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  Speaker 2: eight hours cycle, it is going in so many different directions,
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  Speaker 2: and it's it's up down. That's why it's a very choppy,
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  Speaker 2: very very choppy market right now. That's why a lot
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  Speaker 2: of people just wait on the sidelines because they don't
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  Speaker 2: know exactly what to expect. And we all know that
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  Speaker 2: the stock markets is going to recover over the course
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  Speaker 2: of time, but I mean, if we do go into
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  Speaker 2: a recession and you could see another twenty percent depth
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  Speaker 2: in the market, So it's it's very erratic behavior. I
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  Speaker 2: think that he's trying to figure it out on the fly,
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  Speaker 2: because especially we haven't talked about the ten year treasury,
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  Speaker 2: but that's something that was extremely alarming to them, that's
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  Speaker 2: what they said, Like that actually made them change his
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  Speaker 2: mind more than anything, not really the stock market, but
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  Speaker 2: the treasury. And when people stop believing in America and stop,
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  Speaker 2: you know, holding American bonds Japan, that's concerning. That's concerning
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  Speaker 2: for sure. So I think he's trying to balance so much.
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  Speaker 2: You see the dollar drop to his lowest level since
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  Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, at the people dumping treasury bonds, to
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  Speaker 2: stock markets crashing, then you got world leaders calling you,
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  Speaker 2: I'm sure, left and right. So imagine just being in
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  Speaker 2: a room with ten thousand things happening simultaneously, and it's
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  Speaker 2: just like Okay, damn, I gotta do this. Okay, let's
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  Speaker 2: reverse course, Okay, let's do this, let's do this, let's
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  Speaker 2: do that. And it's not like something that I think
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  Speaker 2: this is already thought out. I think it's in game. I
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  Speaker 2: think he's doing the Peyton manning like omaha, he's calling
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  Speaker 2: audibles on the fly. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: I think this is the epitome of building a plane
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  Speaker 1: while flying it right, Like we are, we're not sure
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  Speaker 1: what we're doing, but we're gonna try to piece this
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  Speaker 1: together as we go. We're gonna make an announcement and
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  Speaker 1: then we'll try to figure it out as do we
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  Speaker 1: do it. It's like like last week when it was well,
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  Speaker 1: the third of April one and with the tariffs were
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  Speaker 1: going to effect, and then we saw how the market
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  Speaker 1: reacted to it. And then there was a leak that
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  Speaker 1: the tariffs were suspended last Monday, and oh it was
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  Speaker 1: a leak that that's not true, and then by Wednesday
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  Speaker 1: it actually was true, right, and then Saturday it's hey,
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  Speaker 1: we're gonna suspend tarraffs on semiconductors, computers, and technology pretty much.
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  Speaker 1: Technology stocks were hopeful like this is great, and then
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  Speaker 1: by Sunday that changes, and who knows what happens tomorrow, Right,
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  Speaker 1: we really don't have a clue of what's happening. From
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  Speaker 1: a business standpoint, it's tough because number one, you don't
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  Speaker 1: know how much you're gonna pay, and then you don't
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: know how much you're gonna make, and so you don't
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  Speaker 1: really know what to tell your shareholders, and you don't
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  Speaker 1: know what your revenue is gonna be, right, and so
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  Speaker 1: the thing that doesn't change for you is the debt
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  Speaker 1: for sure, Right, that's the thing that you know for
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  Speaker 1: sure it's going to happen. Right if you're having cap
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  Speaker 1: expendatures and there's debt that's accumulating that's not going anywhere.
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  Speaker 1: How much you're bringing in, how much you're gonna pay
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  Speaker 1: for that, that is uncertain. So, I mean, the uncertainty
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  Speaker 1: in itself is is extreme. The recession piece. It almost
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: feels like we were headed for a soft landing. I know,
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: but it was like never going to be a self
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: lending but we will had it there, we will head
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  Speaker 1: it there, and now we got the self inflicted won't
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  Speaker 1: And now it almost feels like recession might be the
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  Speaker 1: safest thing if you hear what Ray Dalio's saying, this
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  Speaker 1: the two negative quarters. By definition, that might be the
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: safest play because we've seen that before, and we've seen
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  Speaker 1: how we've recovered from that before. It could be shortened,
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  Speaker 1: maybe it's extended, but we've seen that before. He's saying
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  Speaker 1: that potentially there's something worse ahead, which is a new
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: economic world order, which is kind of what we've been
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: alluding to in the smallest sense, where it's like the
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: rising power challenging the emerging power or the existing power.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: We kind of know who plays in those roles versus
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: the value of money, versus internal conflict versus international conflict,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: all happening at the same time, which is dangerous incredibly.
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  Speaker 3: And for my traitors. How Trump is changing his playing
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: day to day. That's how a lot of you are
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: trading right now. Please know what your targets are going
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: in to this market, regardless of what he does. I've
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: always stressed you need one short target to be able
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: to get cash flow, one long target to help change
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: your life. Second thing, I do want to stress, despite
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: how much volatility we have in a market, given because
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: of leadership, it's going to be one of the greatest
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: bound opportunities of this decade. I do not want you
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: to forget that point. It felt like this in twenty fifteen.
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: It felt like this doing Brexit, it felt like the
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: pain was never going to stop. But even in a
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: recession on average the last seventeen to nineteen months, for
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: those of you who are locked in, if you can
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: buy and hold long term in three or four years,
• 9:45
  Speaker 3: you are going to be lady. And we'll talk about
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: it later. There are some companies that are dominating Netflix
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: one of them. Netflix has moved up my respect level
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: a lot. Visa is what most financial services companies should be.
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: There's still quality out here despite the BS that's going
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: on with his decision making.
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  Speaker 1: So yeah, quality, I mean, business is still happening, especially
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: when we kind of led with it. But you see
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  Speaker 1: the amount of money that's being allocated toward AI development
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: even in the midst of all this. Right, It's the
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: reason why they all met with him and they continue
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  Speaker 1: to meet with him. Is Yes, part of it is
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  Speaker 1: his thought is we've been unfairly treated when it comes
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: to tariffs. But the other part of it is on
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: shore manufacturing and based on a lot of what the
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: especially the Max seven. They're making a commitment to make
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: sure that at least some of the manufacturing is on shore.
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: Is it too late.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: For a company like Apple, That's gonna be tough for
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: a company like in Nvidia not as not too late,
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: because they've already if you look at the manufacturing, I
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: know that, and you kind of alluded to it to
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: start to show. But that five hundred billion over the
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: course of four years, obviously that makes it one hundred
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: and twenty five billion UM per year toward data set
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: of development. That manufacturer is going to start producing its
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: newer products. So Hopper is still being produced in Taiwan
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: and maybe some of Blackwell, But at this point going forward,
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: and we've seen the road out till twenty twenty seven
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Blackwell Rubin, and I forget that the name of the
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty seven product, those will majority of those will
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: probably be manufactured here. Based on this announcement that they
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: had today, an.
• 11:38
  Speaker 4: Illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child in Massachusetts.
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  Speaker 4: Leave now. Under President Trump, America's laws, border and families
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