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Mike Nizza on New Presidential Polls (Audio) · Bloomberg Intelligence

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  Speaker 1: He's taking stock with Kathleen Hayes and Pimp Box on
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  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. New polls, same candidates, different states. Let's find
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  Speaker 1: out more from Mike Nietze. He is executive editor Bloomberg Politics.
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  Speaker 1: You can follow him on Twitter at Mike Nitza. Mike,
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  Speaker 1: thanks for coming in. Appreciate it all right, so give
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  Speaker 1: us an update. I know there's a new poll and
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  Speaker 1: it has to do with Colorado. So yeah, Colorado is
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  Speaker 1: one of the major battleground states. That's also uh, one
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  Speaker 1: of the four that comprise Hillary Clinton's firewall where they
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  Speaker 1: you know, they can swing either way. They have a
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  Speaker 1: lot of different things going on demographically, but uh, and
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  Speaker 1: as Trump started gaining in states like Ohio and Florida
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  Speaker 1: and North Carolina, there are questions about whether he could
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  Speaker 1: start to turn Colorado too. And in the latest poll
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  Speaker 1: released late last night, the answer was no. Among the
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  Speaker 1: battleground states kind of ranked them in terms of most
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  Speaker 1: electoral votes at least. Well, you know, you have big
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  Speaker 1: ones that are really not in contention, like Florida, New York,
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  Speaker 1: Arc Texas, and uh, that's that's the We don't really
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  Speaker 1: talk about those that much, even though they bring a
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  Speaker 1: lot of electoral votes. But then there are two major
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  Speaker 1: battlegrounds that bring a lot, and that's Ohio and Florida
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  Speaker 1: and so uh and those two are the tightest ones
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  Speaker 1: that that we're looking at right now. You mentioned Texas.
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  Speaker 1: I just wanted that maybe just we can go through
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  Speaker 1: this because because Texas is what are the what's the
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  Speaker 1: polling saying, and what is the likelihood? Yeah, they'll see
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  Speaker 1: states that are um less competitive yet less polling. So
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  Speaker 1: what we see out of there is kind of like,
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  Speaker 1: uh is slipshots sometimes, but it's definitely closer than it's
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  Speaker 1: been in previous elections. And a lot of that has
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  Speaker 1: to do with the Hispanic population in Texas. And uh.
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  Speaker 1: To that point, Hillary Clinton announced plans to open her
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  Speaker 1: first office in El Paso, UM yesterday, so she definitely
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  Speaker 1: sees a little softening there and that could either be
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  Speaker 1: as a way. It might not be to win the
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  Speaker 1: state because that seems a little much in this election,
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  Speaker 1: but it could be to put Trump on the defensive.
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  Speaker 1: So diverse resources there and said of somewhere else, and
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  Speaker 1: of course it's Texas is not just it seems to
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  Speaker 1: be a pretty red state. We can agree on that,
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  Speaker 1: except for Austin, they call it a data blue and
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  Speaker 1: the ocean of red. Right. When it comes to Florida,
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  Speaker 1: one are the latest polls showing, and again the spanning
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  Speaker 1: vote is a different you know, the spanning people are
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  Speaker 1: differently around the country. They're not uniform exactly, but how
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  Speaker 1: what how things shape up there? Yeah, the big difference
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  Speaker 1: in Florida when it comes to the Hispanic vote are
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  Speaker 1: Cuban Republicans, um. And that's been uh, that's been a
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  Speaker 1: standard that the Republicans could rely on for a for
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  Speaker 1: a long time. Uh. And also the Republican Party after
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  Speaker 1: the loss in the tent twelve election, really tried to
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  Speaker 1: push to appeal to more Hispanics because of Florida first
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  Speaker 1: and foremost and in some other areas. Um. But the
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  Speaker 1: polls right now are it's so close, it's really hard
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  Speaker 1: to tell who's up. Trump's up by two and some
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  Speaker 1: it's tied another as and Hillary Clint is up by
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  Speaker 1: by a few points in others. So um, it's it's
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  Speaker 1: really comes down to things like waiting and various poster
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  Speaker 1: strategies for for figuring out the electorate. And at the
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  Speaker 1: end of the day, it's going to be about turnout,
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  Speaker 1: turn up well, and let me just give you the
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  Speaker 1: number just so you got if anyone's taken down the
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  Speaker 1: electoral votes. I mean, you know Texas thirty eight, Florida
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  Speaker 1: and Ohio eighteen. Turn your attention to the debate. I'm
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  Speaker 1: interested to understand what it is that you think it's
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  Speaker 1: going to happen. Yeah, this is the taking place at
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  Speaker 1: Hofstra University on Monday, the Monday night. And uh, and
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  Speaker 1: it's going to be ninety minutes of just Hillary Clinton
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  Speaker 1: on stage next to Donald Trump with one moderator, Lesser
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  Speaker 1: Wholt of NBC News. And uh, it's really the first
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  Speaker 1: time that tens of millions of Americans will see these
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  Speaker 1: two next to each other, you know, without any filter whatsoever. Um.
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  Speaker 1: And and it's the first time that both of them
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  Speaker 1: will be away from their handlers and and will be
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  Speaker 1: kind of left their own to their own devices. So
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  Speaker 1: as much as they can prepare and have different strategies,
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  Speaker 1: anything could happen in those ninety minutes. Mike, what is
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  Speaker 1: the reporting of the Bloomberg Politics team showing in terms
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  Speaker 1: of how Donald Trump pool approach his debate, how he'll
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  Speaker 1: face Hillary and vice versa, how Hillary will try to
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  Speaker 1: set up an overpower Donald Trump. So I think one
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  Speaker 1: thing that they both have in common is they they
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  Speaker 1: love nothing more than criticizing each other. It's Hillary Clinton
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  Speaker 1: has delivered some of her strongest speeches kind of uh,
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  Speaker 1: you know, hitting him on on character issues, making fun
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  Speaker 1: of him, etcetera. And as we know, Donald Trump goes
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  Speaker 1: on a lot about cricket, cricket Hillary, So that's kind
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  Speaker 1: of the equalizer. I think the question is how they're
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  Speaker 1: able to deliver those criticisms and and uh, and Trump's
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  Speaker 1: camp has been He's been hearing from a lot of
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  Speaker 1: advisors who say that he should be aggressive and put
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  Speaker 1: her on the defensive and kind of not let her
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  Speaker 1: take control of the debate. And that will be something
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  Speaker 1: that can go well for him or make him look lickabully. Well,
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  Speaker 1: I just want to mention also that Twitter is going
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  Speaker 1: to show Bloomberg TV's coverage of the three presidential debates
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  Speaker 1: and also the one featuring the vice presidents, which comes
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  Speaker 1: I believe in October. Correct. Then, uh, and that's all
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  Speaker 1: going to be through the through the app. It's really cool. So, Myke,
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  Speaker 1: how much difference to presidential debates look back? How much
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  Speaker 1: difference they make in terms of where the polls stand
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  Speaker 1: before and after, who gets elected who doesn't. There's there's
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  Speaker 1: definitely a lot of anticipation, but at the end of
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  Speaker 1: the day, it hasn't moved a lot of elections lately.
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  Speaker 1: Um there was the biggest scare for the Obama campaign
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  Speaker 1: and the last election was after the first debate which
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  Speaker 1: Romney uh Romney one and he enjoyed a quick surgeon
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  Speaker 1: the polls, but things returned back to normal long before
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  Speaker 1: election days. Just this is going to be the gift
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  Speaker 1: that keeps on giving. Definitely, we'll have lots to tweet
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  Speaker 1: out that evening, that's for sure. Make Mezza thanks so
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  Speaker 1: much for joining us. He's executive editor for Bloomberg Politics,
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  Speaker 1: taking a look at the latest polls, which show Hillary
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  Speaker 1: Clinton moving ahead in one that's very important to her
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  Speaker 1: campaign in Colorado, and of course a previewing how all
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  Speaker 1: things will go on a Monday night for those debates,
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  Speaker 1: and his Pim just noted Twitter will be showing Bloomberg
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  Speaker 1: TV's coverage of the three debates, so you won't want
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  Speaker 1: to miss that. Keep it right here. This is Bloomberg
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  Speaker 1: m