Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Poll Numbers Are Sinking: Will Kristi Noem Take The Fall? + How Do We Get Out Of This?

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Chuck’s Commentary - Trump’s Poll Numbers Are Sinking: Will Kristi Noem Take The Fall? + How Do We Get Out Of This? · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. Hello,
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  Speaker 1: They're happy Thursday, and welcome to another episode of the
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  Speaker 1: Chuck Podcast. Yes, I am still on the road, coming
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: to you from Dell Boca Vista. Sorry that was just
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: a little shout out to my Seinfeld friends there I'm
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  Speaker 1: coming from. Actually, technically I'm staying in Deerfield Beach, but
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: I just spoke on campus at Florida Atlantic University. I'll
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  Speaker 1: be speaking to their Jupiter campus tomorrow. It's been a
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  Speaker 1: couple of days at Fau and I have to just say,
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  Speaker 1: it's just it just makes me so happy watching all
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: of these Florida universities grow as successfully as they've grown,
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: you know, being a Floridian and being in the press
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  Speaker 1: over the last twenty years. You know, look, we all
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: have our own state pride. And you know, I know
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: people like to rag on Florida man and this or that,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: and but you know, and you know, I grew up
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  Speaker 1: in all of you know, I grew up in Miami,
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: and you know, Miami has taken its share of lumps.
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  Speaker 1: You know, gets people take pot shots at it. People
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: take pot shots at Florida. But you know, when you're
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  Speaker 1: from here, you know, you take pride in it. You know,
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  Speaker 1: people like to take pot shots at New York. New
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Yorkers take pride in New York. Right. People take pot
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: shots at Mississippi. Those that live in Mississippi take a
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: lot of pride and being from Mississippi. And of course
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: what we will say is you don't get to trash
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: our state or city.
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  Speaker 2: Only we do.
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  Speaker 1: On this. But I just I've just marveled at how
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  Speaker 1: much how many of these universities have grown. You know,
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  Speaker 1: what it was basically you know, a four university, you know,
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  Speaker 1: three universities, you know, dominated everything Miami, Florida, Florida State,
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  Speaker 1: and you certainly had you know, the small you know,
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  Speaker 1: USF and UCF have been around a while, FAU FIU UWF,
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  Speaker 1: but over the last thirty years they've gone from commuter universities,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: small universities to full fledged just great campuses, beautiful campuses.
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  Speaker 1: FAUS got multiple campuses now in the in Palm Beach County.
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  Speaker 1: So it's and I'm not just saying nice things that
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: they invited me, but yeah, I'm gonna say nice things
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: because they invited me. But but I mean it, uh,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: and it's you know, what's and what's great about South
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Florida is that I get political questions about all sorts
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: of regions in the country because the beauty of Florida
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: is everybody's from somewhere else, right, which is always what
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  Speaker 1: I always took pride in the fact that I was
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  Speaker 1: born and raised uh in Miami, and how unusual that's
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: you know, more and more usual as as as our
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: cities in the area matures and gets older, but certainly
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: a point of pride there. And I'm gonna you know, well,
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: I'll share with you a little bit of the talk
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: I gave to them. A few things I want to
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: get to though, that are little politics of the day.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: You know, I had hinted in my last podcast that
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: I think that Christy Nome's tenure might be he measured
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: in hours lettone or or days, certainly not weeks or months.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: She still has a job today. But you know, Donald
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: Trump is a reactive to public opinion. He's reactive to
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: and it is it is interest. Now. Look, there's a
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: fine line with Trump. Right. The more you demand he
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: do something sometimes the more likely he won't do it right,
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: almost out of defiance. Right. I always say he's he's
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: always thirteen, and you have to sort of in some ways.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: He's got the emotional IQ of a thirteen year old,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: and many a thirteen year old or thirteen going on
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: thirty or thirteen going on eight, right, And that can
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: be Donald Trump at all times. Right, You're never sure
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: how serious is he. And you know he'll be kajed
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: and fascinating for a moment in time. You know, my god,
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: he may say something that you agree with, uh, and
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: then he acts like the eight year old right and
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: throws his temper, tantrums and all of that stuff. So
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  Speaker 1: that said, I still think Christy nomes Day's her number,
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: and there's because she she fits a profile of a
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: person that Trump will dump. Right, he was not devoted
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: that devoted to her in the first place. Check she's
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: got presidential ambitions and it's he's and she's not somebody
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: that Trump uses their parent And if he thinks this
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: helps get her out of the way for whoever comes
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: next in the MAGA movement, check right, here's a box.
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  Speaker 1: She's unpopular with pretty much everybody at the moment, Democrats
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: and Republicans, and you know she's she's uh, and it
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: may explain, you know, the easiest way to try to
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: save your job in the Trump aras to say you
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: were just following orders, which is what she let out
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: that interesting Axios report said, you know, I didn't do
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: or say anything that wasn't essentially directed to me by Stephen,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: referring to Stephen Miller or the White House. But she
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: also fits a few other categories of why if someone's
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: going to get fired, it's going to be her, Because number,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: it ain't ever going to be Steven Miller. Stephen Miller
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: is not blood to Trump, but he might be the
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: closest thing to blood that there is in his political orbit.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: I think he views Miller as the you know, I've
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: always thought Stephen Miller. You know, on one hand, he's
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: the type of person Trump would make fun of and
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: would mock if Miller wasn't so capable. And that's his
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: secret sauce he's capable. You know. If Miller's as as
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  Speaker 1: smart as anybody in that room understands the the byzantine
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: structure of the federal government. He's sort of bizarro. Dick Cheney, right,
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  Speaker 1: Dick Cheney was that and you know, which is why.
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  Speaker 1: You know, Cheney understood how to use to, how to
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  Speaker 1: move government, how to work government, what agencies worked, how
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  Speaker 1: to you know, manipulates strong word. But the point is
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  Speaker 1: is how to make government, how to bend the will
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  Speaker 1: of government in a direction that he wanted to bend it.
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  Speaker 1: But there was a principle of what Cheney wanted. He
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: certainly had a point of view, He had a vision
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  Speaker 1: for the country. You know, Miller's got all of the
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  Speaker 1: same skill set that Dick Cheney has, except his motivation
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  Speaker 1: seems to be you know, he seems to be more
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  Speaker 1: excited when other people are upset, rather than following some
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  Speaker 1: sort of larger principle. And that's always something I've never
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: been quite sure of, which is I is he at
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  Speaker 1: all got a conservative vision or is he just a reactionary?
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  Speaker 1: Is he really just driven by owning the Libs? I
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: think he is. I think he genuinely believes that we
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  Speaker 1: immigrate to many people into this country. So I think
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: he does genuinely believe in that, and I think he
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: wants to believe that this would somehow improve you know,
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  Speaker 1: that it and we'll see on this. I think there's
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: a lot of protectionists and isolationists and nationalists who believe
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: that immigrant labor is what pushes wages down and what
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: would and essentially makes turns working class jobs into low
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: class jobs, and that there would be that fewer immigrants
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  Speaker 1: would actually raise the standard of living for working class people.
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  Speaker 1: And there's a genuine belief.
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  Speaker 2: So I do think he.
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  Speaker 1: Comes at this, comes to this issue specifically with a
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  Speaker 1: set of beliefs that he that he and he's trying
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  Speaker 1: to implement a policy. But on everything else, you know,
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  Speaker 1: I don't quite you know, I don't know that he
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  Speaker 1: doesn't strike me as a small government guy. He doesn't
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: strike me as a business guy Republican either. But I'll
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  Speaker 1: say this, I mean he's he's he doesn't mislead reporters.
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  Speaker 1: You know, he says what he means, and he means
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  Speaker 1: what he says. But he has the trust of the President,
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  Speaker 1: so he ain't going anywhere. And so the only way
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Christy Nomes sticks around is if Trump wants her to
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  Speaker 1: absorb the negative press, if he if he views her
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  Speaker 1: as almost like a a shield, a heat shield of
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  Speaker 1: some sort. But I don't think it's a heat shield.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: And I think, like I said, I think the reason
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  Speaker 1: the one way she's trying to save her job is
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: by saying, you know, I'm following orders, and the implication being,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: you know that perhaps she could, she could tell a
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: lot of interesting stories about how, you know, what the
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: grand planned is with Miller and all this stuff. But
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure she's credible, Like I don't think, I'm sorry.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: I think if she gets fired and then she comes
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: out and tries to sort of rehabilitate herself by being,
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: you know, a so called truth teller, I.
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: Don't know if she'll have credibility.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: She went out of her way for this performative theatrics
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: and this is what is on her was the theatrics,
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: and this is and it is. I do think Trump's
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: been convinced that it's unpopular. Are the tactics not the policy.
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  Speaker 1: Miller's in charge of the policy, gnomes in charge of
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: the tactics. So I'm still thinking's she's more likely to
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: be gone than stay.
• 12:17
  Speaker 2: And the thing that could get.
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: Her, the thing that could get her are.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: Bad poll numbers.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: And guess what. There is one thing you know, We
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: know that Donald Trump consumes a lot of Fox and
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: one thing that I have always been a fan of
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: is the Fox News poll. It is modeled off of
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: the the NBC poll that I ran for years, that
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: I helped run and run on the NBC side for
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: years in conjunction with my pals Bill mcinturfet Public Opinion
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Strategies and Jeff Horwitz uh uh at for that, Fred
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: Yang and Peter Hart at Yaron Hardt Yang Heart Research.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: We believed in always having a bipartisan polling polling team
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: to help put together the questionnaire, examine the samples and
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: all this stuff, and they would rotate whose call center
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: would use because it was we felt like we were
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: going to get them and have posters who have been
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: polsters for the presidents are posters for presidential candidates. And
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: one thing Fox has done with their polling unit, which
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: is why Trump lets to trash it all the time,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: is they've got a very good pair of pollsters. Not
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: as good as my friends in NBC. I teach you guys,
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: because hey, I'm going to be loyal to my boys.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: But the Fox News poll is a pulvot I think
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: is a very good poll. And it's like I said,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: it doesn't you know the poll is bad for Team
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Red if Fox News covers it fox News. If it's
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: if you can only find it on foxnews dot com,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: you know it's a bad poll for Republicans. If you
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: see it plastered all over the cable channel, it's likely
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: a good poll for Republicans, And there'll be numbers that
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going to tell you now that My guess is
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: you're not going to hear about on the cable channel,
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: but you might have to read about it on the
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: digital channel. So the point is is that the bottom
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: line is it not surprisingly right. Basically, the big headline
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: of this is that Donald Trump starts twenty twenty six
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: with essentially and as bad of a place and about
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: the same spot as Barack Obama started started his second
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: year in his second term and George W. Bush started
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: his second year of his second term. What does that mean? Well,
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: guess what. Twenty oh six, which was the second term
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: midterm for George W. Bush, was a disaster. Twenty fourteen,
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: the second midterm of the second Obama term was a disaster.
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  Speaker 1: percent off. So the foreshadow not to go. He starts
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: with forty four percent. And by the way, Fox News,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: like the NBC, poll uses registered voters, so you're going
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: to see, you know, sometimes you may see why. I've
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: seen his job approval rating in the thirties and some
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: other poles, any poles of all Americans, which includes all adults,
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: you know, measured against the senses, not necessarily the voter file.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Trump just does worse when all in any samples that
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: include all adults versus when it's just registered voters. As
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: numbers improved slightly. So that's why he's sitting at forty four.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: Where you've seen some that have them thirty eight, thirty nine.
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: A lot of those are of all adults, not registered voters.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: So keep that in mind. But let me just share
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: with a few of these numbers, because I think there's
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: a pair of numbers that I do think could doom
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: Christie Nome especially, let's put it this way, especially if
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Fox decides to air these numbers quite a bit, right,
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: if they want to make this the you know, the
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: TV team has a choice to make. Right, the president's
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: favored shows have a choice to make, and they could
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: make Christy nomes life miserable. So let me go through
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: the top lines. None of them. There's really only one
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: thing that Trump pulls okay on and we'll get to it.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: This is not a good poll, and again Fox News
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: poll that could get amplified in the cable channel. We'll see.
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: This is why I want to share so many details here,
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: because I'm not convinced you're going to hear a lot
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: about it. Fifty four percent think the country is worse
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: off today than it was a year ago, bet to
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: just thirty one percent says they're better off. It's a
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: twenty three point deficit. Mostly comes from Democrats eighty four percent.
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: In independence, seventy one percent they say the country is
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: worse off today than they were a year ago. Among Republicans,
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: only sixty one percent say it's better off. Look the
• 18:37
  Speaker 1: way our polarized environment. Right, if you're a republic if
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: you're a Republican president, and your Republican numbers, no matter
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: what the score is is in the eighties and nineties,
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: you're fine with your base. When it starts to get
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: in the sixties or seventies on questions, it means you've
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: got problems even among members of your own party. So
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: only sixty one percent, right, you have these huge majority
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: used to say we're worse off Democrats, It's not surprising,
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: but the independent number is a big deal at seventy
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: one percent. But the fact that only sixty one percent
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: of Republicans are saying we're better off, not a great sign.
• 19:11
  Speaker 1: Here's more on how this economy, and that's the theme
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: of this poll is that nobody likes this economy, and majorities,
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: including Republicans, think the president's not focused enough on the economy.
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: Only twenty five percent of voters say they're better off
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: financially than they were a year ago when Trump furst
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: of offense. More than four intents say the administration's economic
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: policies have hurt them. Okay, only about two intends say
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: the president's policies have helped them. Also of notes is
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: how pessimistic voters are right now about the economy. Forty
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: five percent expect the economy to get worse over the
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: next year. Thirty two percent expected to get better. A
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: year ago, there was a lot more optimism about the
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: economy right a year ago, when the more people would
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: thought the economy was going to get better by two
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: points than worse off. So this is a pretty dramatic
• 20:11
  Speaker 1: shift that you now have nearly half of folks think
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: the economy is going to be worse over the next year,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: and only thirty two percent say it's going to get better.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: So the pessimism at the start of this year about
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: the economy not great. Now. The good news for the
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: president is if somehow the economy performs better, people will
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: notice and they'll give them a bunch of credit. But
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: the fact that they've already decided it's going to be
• 20:36
  Speaker 1: a bad economy, it could make this an even stickier issue.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: Every negative economic headline only reinforces this point of view
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: that this economy is getting worse. A few other things
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: on his job rating, so overall, forty four percent approved
• 20:52
  Speaker 1: of the job that has not moved since December, eighty
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: five percent of Republicans approved, ninety seven percent of those
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: that identify with the MAGA movement a proof of his job,
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: but his disapproval rating, according to Fox, is that near
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: all time highs among white voters fifty four percent, among
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: self described moderates seventy percent, and among independence seventy eight percent.
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: Independence.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: All right, look, they're not MAGA, right, but they're not liberal.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: That's a bad that's a tough number. Party that wins
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: independence usually wins the midterms anyway. And of course, like
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: I said, is right now he's got the same approval
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: rating essentially as both in the Fox Bowl as both
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: Obama second term Obama did, and second term Bush forty
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: three did at this same point in time. But the
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: biggest issue that comes from this poll is that they
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: think Trump is spending too much time on foreign policy
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: and not enough time in the economy, immigration. On border security,
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: forty seven percent say he's spending too much time on it,
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: thirty five percent say it's about rife, seventeen percent say
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: not enough. On foreign policy, thirty seven percent say he's
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: spending too much time, twenty seven percent say not enough,
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: but thirty five percent say it's about right. And on
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: the economy, only eight percent say he's spending too much
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: time on it, sixty eight percent say he's not spending
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: enough time on the economy. All right, When you're at
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent, it means that's independence, that's Democrats then,
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: and that's Republicans. They also did a word cloud. I'm
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: glad they do some word clouds. The NBC poll. We
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: started doing word clouds before I left. And Trump's top
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: priority of president. They asked what should his top priority be? Well,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: voters are more likely to say economy or prices, although
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: resigning came near to the top, as that was the
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: among the number one things that self described Democrats and
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: many Independents say should be Trump's number one task. But
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: after that focus on the economy. Everybody said that over
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: both immigration and foreign policy, and overall this contributes to
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: him having a negative job rating pretty much across the
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: board on issues. Right, So he's sitting at forty four percent.
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: And I'm going to get to this point in a minute,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: which is why I think Christy Nomes the days could
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: be numbered if if Fox chooses to make a big
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: deal of this on TV and he starts to see it. Right,
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: So his overall job rating forty four fifty six percent disapprove, okay,
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: on Greenland, his approval is just thirty one sixty seven.
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: On inflation, it's thirty five sixty five. On tariffs, it's
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: thirty seven sixty three. Disapproved. On Russia sixty two percent disapproving,
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: just thirty seven percent. Approved on healthcare thirty eight sixty one.
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: You see, these are just terrible numbers, right, His job
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: rating is better than all the individual's that gets to
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: there are some that are you know, if you make
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: people think about specific issues, well, even those that like
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: him don't like them on this, or don't like them
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: on this, or don't like, well, that's what you see here.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: You know, he's only got two issues where his approval
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: rating is higher than his overall job rating. His approval
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: rating is lower on Venezuela, lower on Iran, lower on
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: the economy, lower on Ukraine, lower on foreign policy, lower
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: on healthcare, Russia, tariffs, inflation, Greenland. Okay, so there's two
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: issues which he has a higher job rating than is
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: overall rating. It's border security and immigration. But what I
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: like what Fox did, and I really advise all polsters
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: to do this is don't put border security and immigration
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: in the same bucket.
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: Separate them out.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: They separate them out because on border security, when you
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: say the word border, Trump's approval rating on that is
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: fifty two percent. You know who's not at the border,
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: Christy No and Ice. On immigration, his approval rating is
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: only at forty five percent and his disapprovals at fifty five.
• 25:01
  Speaker 2: That is all due to Ice.
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, they'd ask some specific Ice questions.
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: Fifty nine percent overall think Ice has been too aggressive.
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: Ice does not perform well even amongst Trump voters in
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: this in this poll. One final question that I think
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: sort of sums up this pole and sort of my
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: guess is is that for some of you, it's like, Okay,
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not alone here, right. Fifty five percent of voters
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: say the US position of the world is worse today
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: than it was a year ago when Trump took office.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: Thirty percent think it's better now, and fifteen percent it's
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: stayed the same. Okay now, Republicans fifty nine percent say
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: it's better, and Trump voters fifty eight percent say it's better.
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: But that's it, right. And again, when Trump's in the
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: fifties or sixties among his supporters being that positive on something,
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: and he's not sitting in the eighties or nineties or
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: even ice seventies, that's when you know this thing is
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: cutting across larger, larger lines. So I just want to
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: get one more part of this survey because the specific
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: questions on ICE, which I do think we're going to
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: see quite a bit of on this, let me get
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: you some of these details on ICE. So majority say
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: ICE's efforts have been too aggressive. Among all voters, fifty
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: nine percent say it's been too aggressive, twenty four percent
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: say it's been about right, seventeen percent not aggressive enough.
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: Among Democrats, it's eighty eight percent too aggressive. Among independents,
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: it's seventy one percent to aggressive. Among Republicans it's twenty
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: seven percent too aggressive. Okay, so this is another one
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: of those where he's not in the eighties or nineties
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: on something, and that's when you know it's a problem.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: Here's the thing. In July of twenty twenty five, when
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: they ask these questions about Ice Republicans, you had only
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: seventeen percent of publicans thought it was too aggressive. So
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: that's jumped ten points in six months. Obviously, you might say,
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: well they just asked it after Ice killed to American citizens. Yeah,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: you're going to have some impact there, even among supposedly
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: core Republican supporters. What's interesting on this is they broke
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: it down even further. There are parts of the president's
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: base who now think by bigger numbers that Ice has
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: been too aggressive. So among Republican women it was sixteen
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: percent in July, it's now thirty percent onto the two
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: aggressive numbers. Among Trump voters, seventeen percent in twenty twenty
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: five was too aggressive, Twenty six percent say now it's
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: too aggressive. Mung independence and went from forty nine to
• 27:50
  Speaker 1: seventy one. Moderates fifty one to seventy whites without a
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: college degree. This is one of the key demographic groups
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: in the Trump coalition. Forty one percent called it too aggressive.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: In July twenty twenty five, a majority fifty five percent
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: say it's now too aggressive. This is why if I
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: were Christino and I turn on Fox News and I
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: see them constantly showing these bad poll numbers for ICE.
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: In fact, support for abolishing ICE has doubled since twenty
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: eighteen and twenty eighteen, eighteen percent favored polishing ICE. Now
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: it's up to thirty six percent. It's mostly driven by Democrats,
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: but that number has doubled. ICE's reputation has gotten worse.
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: And whose fault is that? Ultimately, I think it's it's
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: the president's policy. It's designed by Stephen Miller. But I'm
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: telling you you got to think about this the way
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: Trump is going to process that. He's going to look
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: at this and say, huh, who's in charge of ICE?
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: Not me? She is. And as anybody has known, you
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: talk to anybody that has worked with Donald Trump, going
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: all the way back to the Trump Organization in nineteen
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: seventy two and in conjunction with a journalistic friend of mine,
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: a few years back, we spent a lot of time
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: for a big project talking to people who were in
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Trump's inner circle over the years. You know, you had
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: New York inner circle in the seventies, you had the
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: New Jersey inner circle, in the eighties, the TV inter circle,
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: folks in the ots and in the nineties. Anyway, here's
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: the pattern. He basically got a new inner circle about
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: every six to eight years, and he always it always
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: ended badly, right, there was never there was. In fact,
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: Roger Stone might be the only person that was sort
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: of in his inner circle in the eighties. That's still
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: kind of welcome. Now. Nobody else is right, nobody ever
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: sticks around because Trump's never going to take the blame.
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: He will always find someone else to blame. And he's
• 30:11
  Speaker 1: done that over the years that he ends up alienating
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: his inner circle at some point one or the other
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: or blaming his inner circle. And so the pattern is
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: what the pattern is. A lot of this will be
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: dependent on the tone and tenor of how Fox reports
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: this poll. I think if they report this poll a
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: certain way, Christy nom will not be the HS secretary
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: by Monday morning. But if they bury it right, if
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: you know, if it doesn't get the attention on the
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: cable channel. Maybe she survives, but I I think here's
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: the other thing. Nome's other problem. She is nobody in
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: the nobody in the Republican Senate that gives two shits
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: about her, right, you know. J. Powell has supporters in there.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: There's certain people that maybe Trump would like the fire
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: and hasn't because they have a constituency, a Republican constituency,
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: either in the House or the Senate. Christina has no constituency.
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: That's what makes her so vulnerable at this moment. May
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: not happen because Trump doesn't like to quote, you know,
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: he doesn't in some case don't want to feed the beast.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: But I don't know. I wouldn't. I wouldn't answer any
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: calls or take any you know. But then again, my
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: guess is if it happens, it happens in a truth
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: social post. When it does, all right, very quickly, I
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: just want to give you guys a little rundown of
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: what I did. I just sort of walk you through
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: my introduction of what the speech is, and hey, if
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: you like what you heard, we can we can do
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: more of this. But I sort of previewed it this way.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: I said, Look, I wasn't there to give a lecture.
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: Wasn't about telling you what should be. I wasn't there
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: for a therapy session. I wasn't there to do a
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: political rally. I was there to try to tackle three
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: basic questions, where are we right now? How did we
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: get here? And how do we make sure we don't
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: stay here? And I said, I wasn't going to sit
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: here and just try to blame all of our problems
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: on one person. And then I was going to say
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: things weren't simple, So I laid it out much of it.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: You devoted listeners, you've heard me on some of these
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: things that you know. One of the things that I
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: like to make clear when I have an opportunity with
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: a large audience is just sort of, you know, try
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: to give people a little bit of a history lesson.
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: And you know, one of the big points I like
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: to make is that that the era that most of us,
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: especially the people that were in that audience and you
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: know they're you know, my age or older, essentially is
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: we may have grown up in an outlier era of
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: American history. And the point being that our natural state
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: as Americans is polarization. That this might be more of
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: a natural state rather than an unusual state. Now it
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: feels unusual to us because we grew up in this
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: during the Cold War. Well, it turns out the Cold
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: War really sort of kept us sort of. The Cold
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: War served a set of moderating guardrails. You know. One
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: of the points I make is that, like you know,
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: the two times during the Cold War that each party
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: went and let its base make the presidential nominating decision
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: just massive landslides, very Goldwater sixty four, George McGovern seventy two.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: But those two landslides right by the way, they were
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: landslides against people that two presidents that were not beloved
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: at the time, neither LBJ or Nixon. But it was
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: more out of fear that whoa whoa whoa gold both
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: Goldwater and McGovern. There were enough people convince you know,
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: they're going to manage the Cold War differently, and we're
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: doing okay so far. You know, we got it. We
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: can't we can't risk, we can't risk capitulating to the
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: to the Russians, or picking a fight with either way.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: You know, Goldwater made people think we were more likely
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: to get into a war with the Soviets and government
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: looked like he was going to capitulate too much of that.
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: Either way, we didn't want either one of that. But
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: those two elections were stuffed in between three of the
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: closest elections of the twentieth century, sixty sixty eight and
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: seventy six. The point being is when the parties basically
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: stayed in their main stream and the quote unquote politics
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: stopped at the water's edge type of mindset that everybody
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: was kind of in the same boat.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: It it kept either part.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: From nominating anybody from sort of the minority wing of
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: their party, right the nationalist wing with the with the
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: with the Republicans, and the progressive or socialist wing of
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: the Democrats. Then the Cold War ends, and literally within
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: it's it's less than an election cycle that we get
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: the nationalist wing of the of the Republican Party popping
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: back up with the Pat Buchanan election.
• 35:29
  Speaker 2: So it's it.
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: So that's always like step one of what I do
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: in these talks is try to sort of because it's
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: it a line share of the audience, you know, grew
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: up very simple, you know, in the Cold War, and
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: it just our Cold War and I think, you know,
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: I've had to do this over the last ten years.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: Is unlearned so many political so much of the political
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: analysis that I knew to be true through the prism
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: of the Cold War mindset, the Cold War influenced electorate,
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: and how much that's changing. I mean, six of our
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: first seven presidential elections in this century have been decided
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: by five points or less. We only had five in
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: the entire twentieth century, right, which essentially two thirds of
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: that century was either a global war, hot war or
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: a Cold war. But our politics today looks a lot
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: more like the nineteenth century, both either pre Civil War
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: or post Civil War. But it feels very similar. The
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: divides are similar, the arguments are similar. Who's an American?
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: Who gets to be an American? And so's it's sort
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: of I do that because I think, I think it's
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: I know what it does for me. It helps to
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: ground me. And like youll, look, man, we've been We've
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: we've been in far worse places. You know, the voters
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: eventually figure it out. Trust the voters to figure this out.
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: And then the other big point I want to make
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: is is, you know, we sit here and we're so
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: preoccupied with the presidency and you know, either we put
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: too much on the presidency in different ways, and it's
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: simply because of the failure of Congress, right, I mean,
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: and you know, so the more I the more I
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: talk about how broken that essentially Congress is, the is
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: patient zero here, although patient makes it feel like they're victim.
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: Like you know, Congress is at the root of all
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: of our biggest complaints about the democracy. Right. Why does
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: the democracy feel more distant from voters than ever before
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: because the House stopped expanding, right it is and be
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: further away. Why do we have so much gerrymandering and
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: transactionalism because Congress is so factionalized. Every congressional district is gerrymandered.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: You know, everybody is trying to sort of lock in
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: power rather than letting the people's house be the people's house. Right.
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: And and then of course, in order to keep power,
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: they have tried to punt controversial decisions. So Congress doesn't
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: you know, doesn't get involved in women's reproductive rights when
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: arguably it should be that we should have legislation, it
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: should be codified into law, but Congress won't touch it, right,
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: So instead it goes to the courts. Congress wouldn't desegregate
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: the schools. The courts had to do it right, and
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: so it Congress is dereliction of duty. Has empowered presidents
• 38:58
  Speaker 1: and made the executive branch much too powerful than it
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: should be. It is then forced activists, since they can't
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: get any relief from Congress. They've got They spent a
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: generation going to the courts. So what did Congress do
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: to the courts? They politicize the courts? Right, Our courts
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: are more politicized today because of decisions Congress may to
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: lower the threshold to partisanize all of our judges. So,
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: you know, I usually have you know, I'm always I'm hopeful,
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: and then I do my riff on local media, which
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: you've heard me say, and how we've sort of forgotten
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: service journalism, and then you know, I put my ideas
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: out there of what I'd like to see the change,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: getting rid of partisan primaries, things like that. But the
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: biggest thing is we're not going to get out of this,
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: and this was my enlargerment. We're not going to get
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: out of this until Congress figures realizes it. It is.
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: It is Article one the Constitution for a reason, and
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: Congress without having to add constitutional amendments, if they could
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: do their job, could bring some accountability back, whether it's
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: to politicians, to government agencies, or to corporate boardrooms. You know,
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: if we look where we need a constitutional amendment is
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: on money in politics, right, If the courts are going
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: to rule equate money and speech, then the only way
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: you're going to be able to put limits is create
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: a constitutional amendment. So there're gonna be some things that
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: we need constitucial livement. It may be that we need
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: a constitutional amendment to force the House of Representatives to
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: be the people's house. So I think we may need
• 40:47
  Speaker 1: to say no congressional district can be any bigger than
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: point three percent of the population, which if you put
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: it right now, that would put us somewhere about one
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: per four hundred thousand. So it would double the size
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: of the house. And you've doubled the size of the house.
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: You no longer have a a electoral college problem. You've
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: minimized the jerrymander. Probably know, by the way, you may
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: have brought the government a bit closer to the people,
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: which was the intent of the founders. And if you're
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: on the conservative side of the island, consider yourself a
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: textualists or constitutionalists. That should be music to your ears.
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: So that's.
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: That's the spirit with which I like to do some
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: of these talks when I am invited to do it.
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: Do a little bit of news of the day and
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: some other things like that, but the bigger stuff and
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: ultimately we can't. You know, the other message I have
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: is we citizens have our work to do. You know,
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: I'm working in the media space to try to build
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: a better information ecosystem. Now there's some things that we
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: can't fix as journalists, right the tech algorithms, things like that.
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: That's what our members of Congress have to do. But
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: people goes back to it. It's like, you know, don't
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: hope that some senator is going to vote to impede
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: convict in an impeachment inquiry. Don't hope that impeachment is going
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: to be a magical solution, or that the twenty fifth
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: Amendment is going to be the only way we get
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: out of this. Is you, the voters, have to decide
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: to take us out of this. Look, the other thing
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: we all have to realize is is and you know,
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: one of the things that sometimes we forget the following
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: and I'm going to I'm going to leave it here.
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: The voters have been sending a primal scream that they
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: want they want better government, and they want a more
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: responsive government, and they don't like what they had for
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: a long time. And how do we know this because
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: in back to back presidencies, the American electorate did something
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: it had never done before, and they did it to
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: presidencies in a row. One was elect a minority to
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: the American president. We'd never done that before. And then
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: the very next new president we elect is the single
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: least experienced in government president we've ever put into office,
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: no military experience, no public service experience whatsoever. Some of
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: the same voters voted for both of them. It was
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: a primal screen. We want a different direction, we want
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: real change. And folks don't know that. They didn't necessarily
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: know what change they wanted. They just knew their lives
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: sucked and it should be better and government needs to
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: do more. And it became and Trump almost was a
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: primal screen. But I don't think we fully appreciate that
• 43:55
  Speaker 1: we did. What. You know, you may not like what
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: the voters did on one election, and you may really
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: like what they did in the other. It all depends
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: on where you said, But the same voters did it
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: on both and the good politicians, the good public servants,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: and the good members of the press. No voters are
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: always trying to tell us something. Listen to what they're saying.
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: So we'll see, all right with that, I'll sneak in
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: a break when we come back. Jason's engerly on the
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: book hated by all the right people. Having good life
• 44:40
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• 44:44
  Speaker 1: was sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have
• 44:47
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• 44:50
  Speaker 1: My mother single mother, now widow. Myself sixteen trying to
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: figure out how am I going to pay for college
• 44:56
  Speaker 1: and lo and behold, my dad had one life insurance
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: policy that we found wasn't a lot, but it was
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: important at the time, and it's why I was able
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: to go to college. Little did he know how important
• 45:09
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• 45:13
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  Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. So again, that's Ethos dot com
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  Speaker 1: something you should really think about it, especially if you've
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  Speaker 1: got a growing family. Let's do some questions, litt last, Chuck.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: It's Thursday, right, Let's let's get through something. Ask chuck. First,
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: one comes from JP says, hey, check, I have two
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: solid questions for you, all right, you've already graded your
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: own questions, JP, I appreciate it. One, I love vip Okay,
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: who do you think in real life Mike McClintock is
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: based on interesting that's the press secretary of Matt Walsh's
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: character there, all right? And then two is the Native
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: American population across all states a viable voting block both
• 46:54
  Speaker 1: parties are under investing in could they shift election results best? JP? Okay.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: First question, we got to remember when it was written,
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: when it was conceived, and so who were seen as
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: press secretaries at that time? So, right, this is an
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: early Oughts and so you had, you know, different models
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: of press secretaries. You had Mike McCurry, you know, was
• 47:24
  Speaker 1: he was sort of the star of the of the
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: Clinton press world when he was the one having to
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: do the daily briefings when they first started getting televised
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: every day during the Lewinsky scandal, and how McCurry somehow
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: was always praised for how he could avoid answering certain questions.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: Ari Fleischer was Bush's guy at the podium right in
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: the first term, certainly during nine to eleven. So you know,
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: my guess is they are sort of that the writers,
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: Although I never asked specifically, But you know you're going
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: to model off of what you've seen and what you
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: know the public has seen. So my guess is based
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: on when it was when that when the when this
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: show was first conceived. So I'm gonna go with with
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: Mike McCurry, Ari Fleischer, and then maybe a little Robert Gibbs,
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: who could be snarky from the podium. Like mcclint talk
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: to Gibbs one time, and Robert's a good friend. I've
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: known him thirty years. You know, poor poor guy is
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: an Auburn football fan. So I kind of feel sorry
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: for my Auburn football football fans. It sucks being the
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: you know, always in the shadow of Bama. So it's
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: the one sec school I have a little soft spot for.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: Plus I have too many members of my extended family.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: You were Auburn Auburn folks, So yeah, I I So.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: One time Robert and I got into it and.
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: He decided to broadcast my.
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: Email at one of the press briefings. So it was
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: the first time that my email went everywhere on the internet.
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: You know, I didn't care. I'm like, I'm a journalist. Hey,
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: I'm supposed to be an extension of the public. You
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: want to find me, never hit my email address. But
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: he could. He enjoyed his time at the podium every
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: now and then. He didn't mind being the star of
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: that TV show a little bit. Neither did Mike Recurry,
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: neither did Arri Fleischer most anyway. But that's where my
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: guests is there. As for the Native American population, it
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: depends in the state right there is it is. It
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: can be a significant voting block in the Dakota's in
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: close elections. It can be a significant source of money.
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: In Oklahoma. The tribes there have the casino businesses there,
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: and they're quite well and they've been a huge some
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: Basically it's they're the check on the Republican Party in Oklahoma.
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: You know, they'll recruit candates and fund candidates and stuff.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: So certainly their money there. Arizona, there's the first congressional
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: district has a significant Native American population that that can
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: can swing that seat. But you know, the thing is,
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: it's not there isn't It is hard to And obviously
• 50:20
  Speaker 1: New Mexico as a big a lot of times there
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: are very parochial issues that motivates some of the Native
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: American voters. Some of it could be very local, could
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: be specific issues with the federal government, with the Bureau
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: of Land Management, which is, you know who they the
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: reservations have to deal with the most in some of
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: these sovereign territories. So I do think that when Democrats
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: were more competitive in the Dakotas, you saw more money.
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: You know, one could argue Tim Johnson one. You know,
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: you talked to veterans of the Tim Johnson campaign in
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: two thousand and two, which was the Johnson Thune race,
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: and then Thune ran again two years later against Dashell
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: and beats Dashel No. Four. But in that Johnson Thune race,
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: if memory served, the Democrats believe they their margin of
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: victory was essentially their investment in the Native American vote
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: in South Dakota. So there are certainly instances where it's
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: been a significant vote, but it's it's when it's already
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: in a close election Montana. In the very close elections
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: they've mattered some and in general in some of these
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: places they lean Democratic. But it's not always the case.
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: You know, sometimes there's just a very specific issue that
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: some leaders And the other thing is a lot of
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: times they'll be voting blocks that you know, the leaders
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: of the tribe might say, look, this party is going
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: to do is going to manage this better for us.
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: So you may not like this person, but this is
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: what we need here. So I so, I don't know
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: if I would call it under investing either party, but
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: I do know that in a financial sense, they're quite powerful,
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: quite powerful in Oklahom, actually quite powerful here in state
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: of Florida. You know, that's why the you know, they
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: they won the mobile gaming fight in the state of Florida.
• 52:31
  Speaker 1: And so it's a it's a pretty powerful political group,
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: but it not necessarily high in numbers. All right. Next
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: question comes from Brad. He says, love the pod. What
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: signs should we look for that Republicans believe they'll lose
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: control of the Senate. For me, the obvious one would
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: be if the public pressure ramps up on Alito and
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: or Thomas to retire. Thanks for all the great work
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: you do, best, Brad, Brad, I think that's a terrific
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: way to look at it. I I think that coming.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: I think you're gonna see that. If I were John Thune,
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: if I were the head of the NRSC Tim Scott,
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: I absolutely would like to have the summer dominated by
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: a Supreme Court. And one could argue that the twenty
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: eighteen midterms would have been worse for Trump because he'd
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: have might have not picked up any ground in the
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Senate if it wasn't for the Kavanaugh nomination that summer.
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, Claire McCaskill will tell you she believes the
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: the Kavanaugh nomination cost her her race. That you know,
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: she was making progress, that she had a winnable race,
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: and then when Kavanaugh became the cause celeb for the right,
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: that was it. She was toast. So yeah, I think
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: I think it's about the I think this is more
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: effect effective at trying to get the base route. Uh.
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: Then then sending checks, which is Trump's other instinct here
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: to try to fix his mid term problems. Well, let
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: me just write people checks that'll make them happy. But
• 54:15
  Speaker 1: it you know, this may not come from Trump, but
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: you know the stories are I you know, you hear
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: there's been whispers already that the Alito's tired of of
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: sort of the didn't like being a political target during
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: that whole flag business. And you know Thomas Thomas is
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: ready to drive that RV around the country. So I
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: you know, wouldn't. I'm not going to be shocked if
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: both of them come open this summer. But I think,
• 54:54
  Speaker 1: you know, that's if they really put it this way,
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: you want to talk about a measurement, if they really
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: think they could lose it. All is if they both
• 55:01
  Speaker 1: decide to retire and give Trump too, which should just
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: be shocking. Right, five Supreme Court justices in two terms,
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: If you pull that up, I'm trying to think of
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: what other signs. You know, look, Susan Collins still has
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: not filed for reelection. She's head of appropriations. If she
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: doesn't file for reelection. Nobody walks away from appropriations if
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: they think they're going to have the gavel again. So
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: that's that's among the ewers. That's you know, we're a
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: few weeks away yet, but that filing deadline's coming up.
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: So there's another little deadline.
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: All right. It's my man, Austin from Austin.
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: Anywright, say send say the viral photo of the dress
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: blue and black to some white and gold others feels
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: like the perfect metaphor from politics today. You know what
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: it really does? That's a great one. Nice poll, Austin.
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: We've always seen different risks and priorities, but now feels
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: like we can't even agree. We're looking at the same thing.
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: Disagreement is fine, but democracy depends on a shared reality.
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: So I still see a white and gold dress? Do
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: you see a dress at all? Now? It's whatever the
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: Lord algorithm has shoved in front of me, right, So.
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: I guess, you know, let me go back to where
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: I started this podcast today. You know, we talk about
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: our fragmented society, but I feel like everybody feels like
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: they saw the same thing in Minneapolis. Maybe not everybody
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: saw the same thing with the Renee Good killing at
• 56:43
  Speaker 1: the beginning, but now they do. So, you know, for
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: for all of them, for all of the all of
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: our concerns about do we have a shared reality? Those
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: poll numbers. I don't know about you, but you know
• 57:04
  Speaker 1: it's when I'm not with the majority on something that
• 57:07
  Speaker 1: I start wondering what am I missing? What am I
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: not seeing? You know, I don't think we're alone here.
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: I think we all see the instability. We all see
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: the lack of focus. You know, they're supporters of his
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: who are saying he needs to focus more on the economy.
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: You know, they won't say it out loud that he's
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: making us less secure by this unstable mess that he's
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: created around the world, but they're kind of implying it
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: by saying he needs focus more on the economy.
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: So I take your point. I think you're right.
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: As far as how debates go on social media and
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: how the conversation can sound sometimes on the floor of
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: the House of the Florida Senate. But the public's reaction
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: to this presidency right now and the poll numbers, if
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: we all weren't seeing the same thing, then he'd be
• 58:06
  Speaker 1: doing better. In the poet, I think, I think our
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: reality we're seeing more of the same things than we
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: maybe give ourselves credit for. All right, next question comes
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: from Drew A writes, do you say connection between rising
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: economic inequality and affordability pressures at home and the growing
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: isolation is sentiment among Americans? Short term economic downterms tend
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: to affect the party in power the political weather, but
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: is what we're seeing more of a longer term climate
• 58:33
  Speaker 1: shift as those pressures hit millennials and gen z harder.
• 58:36
  Speaker 1: Do you expect that inward turn to intensify and what
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: would that mean for you as form policyive for the
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: next decade. Thanks for all that you do well. I
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: got asked a similar question on Wednesday Night. Might talk
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: at FAU about but it was and I say similar,
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: It wasn't quite the same thing, but it was. It
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: was about gen Z and millennials, and it was about
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: their sort of you know, what are they bringing to
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: the table that the other generations have. And my answer
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: to that was skepticism about capitalism. And so in some
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: ways I think you're getting at a similar sentiment here.
• 59:16
  Speaker 1: But this is not a new you know, when I
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: think about when I keep talking about how much the
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: current era echoes with the first sort of about twenty
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: twenty five years of the twentieth century, you know, as
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: we were, you know, both growing quickly with the industrial
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: Revolution and at the same time panicking about the loss
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: of our way of life. Right we were moving from
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: a grarian economy to industrial economy. There were losers, people
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: were being left behind all those things, and this concern
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: about inequality was at its height. It's why we ended
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: up with a constitutional amendment about the income tax. We
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: weren't trying to most Americans. We wanted to attack the
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 1: rich Americans. We were pissed off we were angry at
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: the at the super wealthy, at the Robert barons, at
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: the Gilded Age, and you know, that was a way
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: to try to offer a check and we didn't trust
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: them with senators. We wanted direct election at senators. So
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: and that's where I see some similarities. And I think,
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: I guess I look at it this way. I think
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: millennials and gen Z are going to drive this because
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: it's ideologically diverse, the coalition they're you know, they may
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: be on different sides of that, but they're all skeptical
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: of corporate power.
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: So I kinda I so I I.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: Look at it this way, I think gen Z and
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 1: the millennials are going to do I mean, look, Upton
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: Sinclair right wrote about the awful conditions for labor and
• 1:01:09
  Speaker 1: child libor and all those things, and that was all
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: happening in the teens and twenties, right before government finally
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 1: intervened and decided that it needed to put some structure
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: and rules into place. And that generation, you know, embraced
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: labor unions, and you know, we're basically embracing more checks
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: on corporate power. Right. So I do think that while
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: that gen Z and gen Alpha are going to lead
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: that charge. I think millennials are kind of victims of
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: this and they will go along, right, But I think
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: by the time something is done about it, I think
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: the pressure is already there with millennials, right, They're now
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: raising kids and dealing with their student debt and struggling
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: to buy a home, right, all of that. So, so
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: I do expect this movement to intensify, but I think
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: it's it is more of trying to well. I mean,
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: this is why I had on the author of that
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: book the Middle middle Class, essentially a new Deal for
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: the middle class, because I do think this is there
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 1: is an appetite for this, and I think what was
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: the beauty of that book is a reminder that, you know,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: the free market didn't create the middle class, government, right,
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: you know, government had to intervene in order to protect
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 1: and help create the conditions for a middle class. I
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: think that's I think this is all going to be
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: driven by gen z and I throw gen alf Ub
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: in there. But you know, as far as foreign policy,
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: I don't. I do think that there's a lot of
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: we've got to we got to put our own house
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: in order before we worry about everybody else. But I
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: wouldn't automatically assume that that sentiment means that person's also
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: an isolationist, right. I also think that Gen Z and
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: millennials are more likely to call themselves global citizens than
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: any other generation. Right, So that's why I don't know
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: if they're going to be that this feeling that that
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: they you know, we need to focus at home doesn't
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: automatically mean also in favor of an isolation as for
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: a policy, at least that's where I choose to follow
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: that one. All right. Last question comes from Blaze Markovich
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: Blaze Rights, Sorry about your Nets trading, Mackenzie Gore, Yeah,
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: me too, man. Moves like that are tough to understand,
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: especially as a Tiger's fan watching the schoobl drama unfold. Yeah,
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of rumors that Schooble gets traded before
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: the start of the season. Basically the best picture in
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: baseball right now. That sucks, sorry Tigers fans, And with
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: the Wizard's mismanagement, I really hope Monumental doesn't end up
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: owning the Nets too. They do do okay with the Caps,
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: or maybe they just stumbled into a Vechkin and didn't
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: screw it up, right. What I really want to ask
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: is why is Nathan's famous allowed to be bought by
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: a Chinese company without much public discussion. It feels like
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: a much more iconic American brand than others that sparked outrage,
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: like Tim Horton's. Well, you're right, you know, the all
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 1: American hot dog is now a Chinese own property.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: You know, what are you going to do next?
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: You know, take over competitive eating. That's the American sport,
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 1: competitive eating. We don't want no foreigners taking that, right.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: It's an excellent point. I can I can I actually
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: pat our collective selves on the back that we didn't
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: make that an outrage. I think in a slower news cycle,
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: during the you know, the golden era of being outraged
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: when Barack Obama wore a tan suit, this would have
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: been the classic sort of manu factured outrage story that
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: would have started on Fox and Friends, gravitated to Bill O'Reilly,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: and ended up, you know as as sort of the
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: you know, firing everybody up over you know. I mean,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: then again, we all went crazy over cracker barrel. And
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: look what that did, right, It made them change their logo.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: I can only say it's the timing of it just
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: didn't catch our viral stupidity moment the way something like
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: this could easily have been done. But I do think
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: had this happened under Obama, I think we know, this
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: would have been a good Fox story for at least
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 1: a day or two. You know, we're losing America, We're
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 1: losing the hot dog.
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: What's next?
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 1: Apple Mom and apple Pie are going to become Chinese
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: own entities too. Anyway, place appreciate the question and for
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: the levity there, all right.
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 2: I enjoyed One of the other.
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: Enjoyable things about doing doing a couple of public events
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: is you know, I get some get some podcast feedback.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: Some people love the college football, some people hate the
• 1:06:20
  Speaker 1: college football.
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 2: Everybody had an opinion about it.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: So and I reassured them all that all of my
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: sports reports will always be at the end of the podcast. Look,
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: I just want to weigh in on something that I
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: kind of weighed in on a couple of weeks ago
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: that really got no little attention, and I didn't I'm
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: not you know, I wasn't looking for extra viral attention.
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 1: And that was my rant about the Baseball Hall of
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: Fame and sort of like you know, I don't know,
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: Carlos Beltran, I guess, and you know, we can have
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: the conversation. And then it led to me sort of
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: whining about how like I think all of the Halls
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: of Fame have lost their way. And then I got
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: a reaction from my son. He goes, you know who
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: loves when I do these sports reports, and he says,
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: you know, I just I don't get that worked up
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: about the Hall of Fame. I don't really care, you
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 1: know he is. I mean, we made a pledge that
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: we're going to I've never been to Cooperstown and neither's
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: he We're going to go to Cooperstown when Max Sureser
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: is inducted. Uh literally, I was, you know, I was
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: waiting to see him. I really believe had the Blue
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: Jays won Game seven and he'd been the Game seven winner,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: that he was going to retire and I was going
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: to book that hotel room immediately for five years later,
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: right to make the Cooperstown then. But he's apparently he's
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: going to pull the the Roger clements and essentially stay
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: in shape and be a stop gap signing for some
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: contender in May or June or July. And I get it. Man,
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: the guy loves you know, and he you know, he
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: wasn't the Max of the Nationals years, but he wasn't bad.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: And I love the guy. I enjoy watching him throw
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: baseball and just hope stalks the mound, those two different
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: colored eyes staring at you and all this stuff. So
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: to say where Max fans is an understatement. So we'll
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: be there. Plus he's a big dog lover, you know,
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: I always will. You know, if you're not a dog lover,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: I'm going to question your character. So there's that. But
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: I was it.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 2: It struck me that he said I just didn't really care.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: I used to care a ton about the Hall of
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: Fame when I was his age, you know, And there
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: was something about the Baseball Hall of Fame and even
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: the football Hall of Fame that felt like they always
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: put the right people in in the right years and
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: all that stuff right, and you know, there'd be and
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: you know, baseball had the one penalty with Pete Rose,
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: and I was like, all right, it was grounded in
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: shoeless Joe Jackson, etcetera, etcetera. And I think the NFL
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: had its own gambling issue right when they banned Paul
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: Hornig for a year and all that stuff. But you know,
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: I was reading about how like the Hall of Fame
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: just seemed they just feel out of touch. They don't
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: they haven't figured out and you and then this Bill
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: Belichick thing happened, and you know that sparked this huge outrage.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: You're like, if Bill Belichick's not a first ballot Hall
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: of Famer, then who then who is right if he
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 1: can't pick? And then there were whispers that, oh, this
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: was a penalty for spygate or to flake Gate, although
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: I don't think he had any role in the flake Gate,
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: right it would be Brady, Spygate would be him. I guess,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: well he was penalized, right, But is this steroids? Is
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: this this right? So? But what struck me and what
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: continues to strike me, is the is the I just
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: think who's in charge of the Hall of Fame and
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: who gets to say is so bast backwards? If it
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: wasn't for the fans, there wouldn't be any interest in
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: having a Hall of Fame, And yet you have people
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: that guard the criteria of the Hall of Fame that
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: is in contradiction to the fan. And ultimately, who drives
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: anything in this sport? Who pays the who makes the
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: salaries matter fan interest. If it wasn't for fan interest,
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: there wouldn't be big media deals and they wouldn't have
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: the money to pay these guys. The fans have no
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 1: role at all in who even is even considered for
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame or nominated for the Hall of
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: Fame or any vote on it. And the Belichick this is,
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: you know, and I know I ran it about this
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: before and I got I'm going to ran about this again.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: You know, all of these halls, the three big halls
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: of Fame.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: I don't.
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 1: I don't know enough about the Hockey Hall of Fame
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 1: in Toronto to weigh in and how they handle things.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: You know, I'll care if if somehow Ovechkin's not a
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: first ballot. I can't imagine it won't be so however
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: they work it. But I'm familiar with three of the
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: halls of fame, the Pro Football of Fame, and again
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: it's not run by the NFL Pro Football of Fame,
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 1: although I would argue the NFL get its hands on it,
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: the Baseball Hall of Fame and the Basketball Hall of Fame.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: There's something about the Basketball Hall of Fame that I
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: like the idea that they they're the basketball Hall of Fame,
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 1: and they sometimes induct pro basketball players or college basketball players,
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 1: college coaches, and you know, they're honoring all of basketball.
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't mind to see football try that, or baseball
• 1:11:47
  Speaker 1: try that. Meaning you're you're the Hall of Fame for
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: the sport, not a league. Right of course, basketball had
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: there a lead two competitive leagues for a while, a
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: BA NBA. So, but we've got to do something.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 2: About this because it.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: If the fans stop believe in the Hall of Fame
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 1: has any relevance, nobody's going to go nobody's going to care,
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: and these things are just going to go away, and
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: they're just you know, it's no different than putting up
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: a podcast saying, well, here's my fifty greatest NFL players,
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: here's my you know, Hall of Fame or's. But all
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 1: of these halls of fame need to figure out how
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 1: to how to give fans a role, you know, whether
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: it's in the nominating process, who should be on the
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: ballot in a given year, who shouldn't be, you know,
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: some percentage of the vote. I don't know what the
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: Pro Football Hall of Fame voting process is, so weird
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: and byzantine. My friend Peter King, I think I might
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: see if I can get them on the podcast on
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 1: a previous version, previous iterations of it. And I've done his,
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 1: We've done he was one time on it. I'd love
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: to understand how it works. But that's the point. But
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: they again, they keep the fans out of it completely.
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: And I'm not saying the fans should have but there
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: should be and I go back, fans, right, journalists, players
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: and coaches, executives and coaches, right, all four of those
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: entities should have a say. One entity shouldn't have more
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: say over the other, but all of them should have
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: some say because they all you know, it is again
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: the word fame is for famous, not best. We don't say,
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: you know, if it was the greatest players, would say
• 1:13:57
  Speaker 1: home of the greatest players. So all of now it's
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: become synonymous with the best. But it is fame, and
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: part of that is part of qualifying is public interest.
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: And this is one of those where you know, they
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: created some new you know, it turns out it's it's
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: not necessary. It might be less about Belichick personally and
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: more about the convoluted way that they want to consider
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: because they play internal politics. You know, if players don't
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: make it through one process, then they get a second chance,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: and then there's a third chance.
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 2: And all this stuff.
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: But it's because the system was flowed in the first place,
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: and how they did the if they always had the
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: elector it broke it up with all the different stakeholders
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: having some say, I don't think they have as many
• 1:14:48
  Speaker 1: of these screw ups. And look with baseball, they just
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: not handled the steroids thing correctly. They just have it
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 1: because they put too many people in that we all
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: know did but just were never proven to do it.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 1: And they've kept a couple of people out that we
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: all know would have been Hall of famers before they
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 1: took it if they did it. Barry Bonds right, and
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: you're just like, you know, and then there's just well
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 1: this person was mentioned in the Mitchell Report, this person once.
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: And then there's like Belichick, really, you know, every coach
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: is trying to get an edge. You know. The thing
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: about Belichick is he was the guy that didn't read
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 1: the rule. He read the rule book to find out
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 1: what didn't they think of and he and he always
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: found loopholes or gaps in the rules and he'd take
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: advantage of it. There's a point and then he got
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: caught and he got punished. But I don't think they
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: fully appreciate sort of like how they diminish everything when
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 1: somebody who's you know, got to burn up their ass
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: about it and has the power to do something about it.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: You know, it's sort of like, you know, it's like
• 1:16:10
  Speaker 1: they finally can get their revenge. It's like to what end?
• 1:16:17
  Speaker 1: So I, you know, the whole thing's a mess. And
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 1: I and again, I don't think an individual did this.
• 1:16:23
  Speaker 1: I do the more, you know, everybody wanted to jump
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: on one person, I think that was that was BS.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: I think the issue was how this system worked. If
• 1:16:32
  Speaker 1: go read up Mike Sando of the Athletic but talked
• 1:16:35
  Speaker 1: about how there was only like three spots and then
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: you have to get forty percent. I mean, it's there's
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: just like it's it's like algebra to try to figure
• 1:16:44
  Speaker 1: out how the hell somebody gets qualifies to get into
• 1:16:47
  Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame if they're not a player, but
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: on this other sub ballot better than players, coaches and
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: just oh my god, they've done all this. And again,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: the single most important entity that has made the Hall
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: of Fame vote even relevant to anybody. It's fan interest,
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 1: and they're the ones that have zero say in any
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: of this. So I beg these Halls of Fame figure
• 1:17:16
  Speaker 1: out how to engage the public and the actual fan base,
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: not to just show up, but to be an actual
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: participant in some form or another, because I think you
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: could bring more credibility to the Hall of Fame with
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: all fans and not just create a Hall of Fame
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 1: that makes a handful of people happy. All right, what
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: about college football?
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 2: Enjoy your weekend.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: I will see you next month, right, because technically the
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: calendar flips and the long winner gets shortened with our
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: shortest month. So with that, I'll see you on mad MHM.