Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

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UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: All system's going clear the left of what's going on everybody.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Hope everyone's having a great week. I'm ready to talk
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: some fights with my man Big Marley. Thursday night. You
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: can see if Big Marley's looking up a little football
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: on the screen, Buffalo Bill's Houston Texans action. We are
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: talking UFC Fight Night Qatar, ten am Eastern, So set
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: those alarms on Saturday morning if if you sleep that
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: late East coast or about US coast over here, eight
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: eastern in the morning, early violence. He loved to see that.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Fourteen fights also good for DFS. Pretty solid main event,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: a big favorite favorite and arm and Serukian. Plenty of
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: other pretty big favorites on this card. But we did
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: have one cancelation, or at least a rebooking. It was
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: supposed to be Gazeve's Speedbock. Now we have Waldo Gazeve.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: I'm expecting this to be an eighty three hundred dollars
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: Waldough due to him being a favorites as you can
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: see right here. But we'll get into that like usual.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: Big Marley, how we're doing today?
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: Good? Yeah?
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: I thought Josh Allen just got it really hurt, but
• 1:34
  Speaker 3: he walked off, so hopefully it's okay Supermo, But yeah,
• 1:38
  Speaker 3: that would have sucked it if he went down for
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: the rest of the season. But I'm excited about this card.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: I think it's a good DFS card. Lots of fights
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: that could be high scoring, lots of fights I like.
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: And I feel like we've been on a run where
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: it's been hard to find underdogs that we like, and
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: on this card, I think.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: It's there's a bunch of them I'm fine with.
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: So I have the money to pay up for some
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: of the top guys that I want, and I think
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: I can make some lineups that look pretty decent on
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: paper and hopefully still keep me a little different if
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: I go like three or four hunderdose.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, most definitely can. And with fourteen fights, I mean
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: just that alone, more combinations, more spread out ownership on average,
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: I do expect that right now. Let me just take
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: a quick glance at a preliminary ownership. No fighter we
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: have projected over fifty percent are our highest own Armin
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: Zeruki and forty nine percent. Wouldn't be surprised if it
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: ticked over fifty there. But even if it was just
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: one fighter, that's pretty good. With everyone else below fifty percent,
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: so I could see a five ten dupe or less.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: I think it's a very live card for that solo
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: ship or would not surprise me either. What's up, Hezo?
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on? Hezo? Oh what am
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: I talking? I know that's that's my man ysn Hezo.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: I know it has to Hezo. Good to see a
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: are you? Are you a hooper? Ysn? You let me know.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Streamyard's got some weird stuff going. I don't know why
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: it's showing everyone's at symbol, but like bunch subscribe button.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: All we asked were on this card. Any broad stayed
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: overview Big Marley before we go fight by fight?
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: Not really, man, I have? What do I have?
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: I have one two star, a couple of threes that
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: go in between some threes and fours. But I think
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: it's just gonna be a tough card based on there's
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: lots of ways you can go, and that's.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: Also good for ownership.
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: You have less dupes like you mentioned, and there's lots
• 3:28
  Speaker 3: of people that I would be fine putting in my
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: lineup and then getting different and.
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: Going down to people that are cheaper than them as well.
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: So tons of ways to go on this card.
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: I'm hoping we're kind of on the same page on
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: a lot of these fights, but we'll see as we go.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so far, just a quick lance at the fight rankings.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: I think we are. We definitely are to kick it
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: off in the first fight of the night. Yeah Toamal,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on there, Hezo love Bit.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: I expected that with that name, that you were a
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: hooper at some point the first fight of the night,
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: though you have five star. I'm putting a five star
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: right away. One of my favorite fights. A target on
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: the card, Denzel Freeman minus two to oh five, Mark
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Bulho plus one seventy five minus six hundred for this
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: fight to finish second most likely on the card. Freeman
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: minus won thirty five inside the distance, Buloh plus one
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: eighty five and Freeman in round one plus two to
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: twenty five. I mean, two guys making their UFC debut.
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: A lot of unknowns. Six and Oho Buloh all of
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: them in the first round were his finishes. He's fought
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: absolutely nobody, so no one knows what to expect a
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: lot of variants in this fight. To start it off.
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Freeman six and one has fought much better competition, though,
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: on a fight that I really have no clue about,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: a very high variants fight, I rarely fade line movement.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: This big Freeman opened a dog at plus one sixty.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Now he finds himself as a minus two oh five favorite.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I just really won't fade that line movement much when
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: I don't really know much of the fighters, when we
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: haven't seen him in the UFC. I will trust that
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: chart money was behind that for some reason. And yeah,
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: I mean Bulow has fought no one, so that's enough
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: for me as well. Play a little. At seventy six hundred,
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: I think Freeman is one of the best plays on
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the slate. I do expect him to get ownership for
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: his price, though, and that makes bulloh and even better
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: play because of leverage. It's a long story short. I
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: want to fire up this fight and every which way
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: and not every which way. I don't want to stack it,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: but I want to be overweight both guys ideally, and
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: I would love that.
• 5:21
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'm just gonna go pretty all in
• 5:23
  Speaker 3: on this fight. Not gonna make it a rule, but
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: this is my favorite fight for DFS on the card,
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: just because of all the unknowns.
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: I mean, another unknown is.
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: Like, why are these guys even making their UFC debuts,
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: Like there's no real reason to have either one of
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: these guys in the UFC. So I'm thinking if the
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: UFC does have a reason on one of these guys,
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: I think it's on the Bullho side. I think he
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: is the one that has the potential to be more impressive,
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: just more talented. He has more ways to win with
• 5:51
  Speaker 3: his submission abilities, but he's never been past two minutes
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: in a fight. He's never faced a real fighter, so
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: there are just a lot of un on him, and
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: I don't really trust him at all. I'm picking him
• 6:03
  Speaker 3: to win by first round submission, but I put a
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: three star on him and a three star on Freeman
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: because I don't feel good about that, And if I.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: End up with more exposure to Freeman, I'm completely fine
• 6:12
  Speaker 2: with that.
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: But the way I see it is if this fight
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: does end in the first minute or two minutes, I
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: think Bulho wins, and then after the first three minutes,
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: I think it starts to take over on the Freeman side,
• 6:24
  Speaker 3: and Freeman could wrestle if he wants to, or he
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: can keep it on the feet, and I think we're
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: getting a finish either way, a knockout from Freeman or
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: a submission from Bullho. My issue would be that is
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: Bulho wins the first round, it gets out of the
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: first round, Freeman like strikes in the second round, finishes
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: them in the third, then we're screwed. But I just
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: don't think that's even gonna happen. I think this fight
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: ends in the first round and we're just gonna get
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: a big boy scorer from whoever it is.
• 6:52
  Speaker 2: My plan will be higher on the underdog, but we'll
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: see what happens.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, fight ends and run one like plus one ten
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: at some books, plus one hundred at another under one
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: and a half, minus one thirty to minus one fifty
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: range across books, even if it ends in the second round,
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Like these guys are priced eighty six seventy six, so
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: Freeman scores ninety five by no means it's a guarantee
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: to be optimal. But we're not talking about like a
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: ninety four hundred dollars ninety five point. We're talking eighty
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: six hundreds. So just a great, great fight. I'm curious
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: on ownership, like it has to be owned, especially the
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Freeman side. I think Bulah might be a little lower owned,
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: but the mid tier is pretty strong. This Taporia fight
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: minus two hundred too finish. People will be interested Nerdy
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: a fight eighty five hundred minus one fifty five for
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: this fight to finish, So there is some in the
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: mid tier that people will go to. Regardless though this
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: this fight's gonna be owned. Freeman I think will be
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: one of the more popular plays. I think it's good Chuck.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: I will get leverage though. That's why I play portfolio lineups.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: I think Bulah one of the best dogs when you
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: are not clicking Freeman. Next fight on the card definitely
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: gonna butcher the name. But you guys know who I'm
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: talking about. Siget Osca McCaw. I have taken on Nicholas
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Dalby si God minus one or minus three fifteen Sigin
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: There we go, Sigin minus three fifteen Dolby plus two
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: sixty five minus one ten for this fight to finish,
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Sigid plus one twenty five inside the distance Allby plus
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: six point fifty take it away. What do you see
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: in this one?
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: Uh more unknowns with this is a goak Mayev. He
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: hasn't fought in three years. So I just really just
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: don't trust what we're gonna get from him. But I
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: do expect him to have a big wrestling edge in
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: this fight. I don't know if he has three rounds
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: of wrestling cardio type of wrestling edge in him, but
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: for him to look like a minus three hundred favorite,
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: I would hope that he does. Dolby's gonna want to
• 8:45
  Speaker 3: come out here and be a pure striker. Uh And
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: I don't see it is is gok Mayev giving him
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: that type of fight. I do think he takes at
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: least the first round, maybe the second as well. If
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: he drops around, I would think it's the third, and
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: maybe that makes him not win in DFS because of
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: him dropping a third round. I don't know, but I
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: do expect him to wrestle quite a bit. He could
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: get a finish, but Dolby's tough to finish, So I'm
• 9:12
  Speaker 3: I'm picking this Ismagak Mayef to win two or three
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: rounds via wrestling, probably two to five takedowns in the
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: fight and put up a decent score. But I'd rather
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: pay up for Armand and if I have the money,
• 9:27
  Speaker 3: I'd rather pay up for Yak Yayev as well. Just
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: because I trust them a little bit more on the
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: Dollby side, not somebody I'm really looking to target at all.
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: I'm really not trying to click him with my handbuilds.
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: But if i'm immming, I'm not going to x him out.
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: I'm fine with him in the pool, just not somebody
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: I'm really trying to get overweight him.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: That makes sense. I have similar takes, Like at first
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: I wanted or I didn't want to have much exposure
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: to Saigin because Dolby's tough, like he's only been finished once,
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: which is the last fight by knockout. He's a grinder,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: so hundred decision with Armin two hundred more and the
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Yakiyav guy five hundred more, who I think are almost
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: like one hundred plus Locke set in Stone. It's tougher
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: with Sygid, but yeah, I mean, like, why wouldn't he
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: wrestle from the get go. Dalby's fifty eight percent takedown defense.
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: He's a big favorite. The line has continued to move
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: his way a little bit. His inside the distance props
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: also went the right way. If you're gonna play Hi
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: plus one thirty to plus one twenty five, someone that's
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: gonna wrestle from the jump or you expect him to.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: So that means fifteen minutes in a decision. If it's dominant,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: he could get there and then plus one twenty five
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: inside the distance is good too. His ownership has to
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: be in check because of his price. Yeah, I just
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I kept coming back to I have to get probably
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: at least around the field on Saigid and then Dolby.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Like spoiler alert, I really like Arvin Seruki and I
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: will hardly play any if literally might play zero Dan Hooker,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: and I'm gonna play zero Cerquira. So if I'm doing that,
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: the next lowest priced guy in the card is Nicholas
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: dull Now. I like a lot of the fighters, like
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: a couple hundred more than them, or like right around it.
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: But if he's the lowest priced guy that I've interested in,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: he always will fight for your dollar. If this other
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: dude just gases or he's a fraud doll be, We've
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: seen it against bomb themes. So I'm gonna play a
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: little Dolby. I've been hurt by him in the past.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: He'll fight for my dollar. I don't need much. He'll
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: already be low own, so yeah, I'm gonna have this.
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: I think this fight's gonna be really low owned, probably
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: one like top three lowest own on the card or
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: something like that, and I could see a path on
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: both sides. So yeah, I'm gonna be playing it for sure.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: What's up, g Fifer, Good to see it. We will
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: keep it rolling next fight on the card. Another wrestler,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: Nurio Ali of minus two to eighty m Rock plus
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: two forty plus one twenty five for this fight to
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: finish Alia plus two sixty five inside the distance Rock
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: plus three p fifteen. Another another guy making the UFC
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: debut in Rock. Yeah, what do you see him as
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: a prospect? What do you think Ali of four stars
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: in this one, which is pretty good.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, four stars for a plus one twenty.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Five, so it's gone the wrong way.
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just because I think almost his entire fight's gonna
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: take place on the ground. Shim Rock. I thought he
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: did look pretty good. He is aggressive with his wrestling
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: and his submission grappling. He's gonna go out there early,
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: try and get takedowns fast, and he's relentless with him
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: in the first round too, and he's gonna be hunting
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: for the neck the issue with him is that he
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: does spend a lot of his energy in the first round,
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: and if he doesn't get the finish there, I have
• 12:33
  Speaker 3: a hard time seeing him get it in the second
• 12:35
  Speaker 3: or the third round.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: Uh.
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: And that's when I think Aliev will just start to
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: take over with his wrestling. I see him just being
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: the better all around fighter. If this is a striking match,
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: that's not gonna be a good fight. It's not gonna
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: put up a big score. We need this to take
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: place on the ground. And Aliv is not really a
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: relentless wrestler, but he is a good wrestler. He's good
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: with his control time and shim Rock's addrestledness and wanting
• 13:00
  Speaker 3: to get the fight to the ground. I think will
• 13:02
  Speaker 3: almost work in reverse for Aliev to be racking up
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: that control time and the takedowns will come easy, I
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: think for Aliev after that first round.
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: So I like both sides of this fight.
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: I don't even have a preference on which one I
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: ended up with leverage on, but I think I like
• 13:21
  Speaker 3: enough underdogs on this card where it'll put me on
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: more Aliev than it will Rock.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: That makes sense. I have both guys listened as overweight
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: and my breakdown. I said, it's more like even with
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: the field plays, there's another fight on this card that
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: I'm the same, where I really don't have the strongest
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: lean like the overs continue to take money. Aliev a
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: clear wrestler, just like we talked about with Siged last fight.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: So a guy that can wrestle all fight I have
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: interest in. But his two UFC wins has scored ninety
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: one and seventy eight. He gets two or three takedowns,
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: he spends nine or eleven minutes on control, but it's
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: only one takedown per round, and then he doesn't do
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: enough damage and at ninety two hundred you need a
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: big score. Now, there is variance in like fight to fight.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, if you're telling me the guy's gonna control
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: of eleven minutes on the ground twelve minutes, I don't
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: want like none of him. Like sometimes he will score
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: one on nine. In those situations he might do more
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: damage reversals, the other guy might get up more. So
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: there is volatility in that number. So I'll play something
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: ninety two hundred just as a guy that could get
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: five takedowns or spend fourteen minutes on top and rock
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: like he's fine off of his back. He'll be thrown
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: up submissions if he does get a reversal, if he
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: somehow is the better wrestler grappler at seven K again,
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: kind of like I said with Dolby, like I prefer
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: Rock to Delby, and I definitely prefer him to Sequera
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: and Hooker, who I'm not playing. So yeah, definitely a
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: dog I'll mix in and his finishing like he has
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: upside and wins. He's plus two forty money line, he's
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: plus three fifteen inside the distance, so majority of his
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: wins should be finishes, and if he finishes, obviously he's
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: optimal at seven K. So yeah, another good fight to target.
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: When I say it like that in my last sentence,
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: I think Rock probably my preferred play because of the price.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: But I'll have some alley of as well. Anything to
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: add in that one, I'll as we'll keep it rolling.
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: Now, I would say my worry is that Rock takes
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: Aliev's back for the first.
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: Round and he just hangs onto his back, and then
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: that's really gonna kill the fight right there. If Alib drops.
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: The first round and then wins the second two with wrestling,
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: I don't think that's gonna be enough.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: Yeah, No, that would almost for sure not be enough
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: at that point in you're cheering for rock, assuming that
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: you have some in your portfolio. What's up, Abrusive, Good
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: to see you, great day over here. Hope the same
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: for you again like button subscribe, but helps us out
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: a ton. Also, it's always a great day when you
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: get to join shipp the nation for as low as
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: nineteen bucks as you see above, five days for nineteen
• 15:49
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• 15:51
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• 15:54
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• 15:58
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• 16:01
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  Speaker 1: over the nation for five days using the code ship nineteen.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: Next fight on the card mid tier fights. Yeah, eighty
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: five hundred and seventy seven hundred is mal Nerdy of
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: minus one forty Ryan loader plus one twenty minus one
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: fifty five for this fight to finish. Nerdy of plus
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: one forty inside the distance loader plus two to eighty
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: five checks all the boxes for me. Solid pricing on
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: both sides minus one fifty five to finish Grid inside
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: the distance props on both sides both average a takedown
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: in a half per fifteen. Yeah, I mean, what's there
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: not to like about this Fight's my question?
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I like it a lot.
• 16:44
  Speaker 3: I think it's kind of a binary fight where Loader
• 16:48
  Speaker 3: has to wrestle in this fight, and he's a pretty
• 16:52
  Speaker 3: decent wrestler. I think he could dominate the first round,
• 16:55
  Speaker 3: maybe even get a submission, and look like he should
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: have been a minus five hundred favorite. The second round.
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: I think he could wrestle as well. I mean, I
• 17:02
  Speaker 3: don't know if he's really that much of a gas er.
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: I didn't spend that much time watching him, but the
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: pace of a wrestler like him, I would just expect
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: to slow down. But Nordiev used to be a pure striker,
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: got like kicked out of the UFC, like, hey, go
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: learn how to wrestle kid, and I think he has
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: done pretty decent his improvement. But Loader's gonna have nothing
• 17:25
  Speaker 3: for Nordiev on the feet. So if the takedowns aren't there,
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: I think Nordiev just knocks him out in whatever round.
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: So I'm gonna be heavy on both sides. I'm picking
• 17:33
  Speaker 3: Nordiev by knockout, but man, I don't want to be
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: underweight on Loader. The Loader could definitely put up one
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: ten and just ruin your night really fast out of
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: the gates. So I kind of just want to try
• 17:46
  Speaker 3: and get leverage on both sides of this fight picking Nordiev.
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: But again, if I end up with more exposure or
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: more leverage on the Loader side, I'd be fine with it.
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: I do expect a lot of steam to come in
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: on Loader though, based on the line movement, and could
• 18:00
  Speaker 3: go like a bit overlooked on this card.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: I think that's a good shout. Yeah, seventy seven hundred
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: plus one twenty money line checks out the wrestling inside
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: the distance. I think you are probably right when it
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: comes to that. And like in this range, the Freeman
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: will be a lot higher than bulloh and Loader will
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: be a lot higher on than Nerdy Of. So when
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: you got to get difference, like if you play Bulla
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: Overloader and Nerdy Of over Freeman, you are definitely getting
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: different that way. And I could see both Like I
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: could see Nerdy of outscoring Freeman in a win. It's
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: like both of them, I think score when they do win,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: but I could see that and Buloh for sure. They
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: both have a lot of upside. I think two of
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: the highest upside dogs on the card are Loader and
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Bulho right there. So yeah, just interesting note. I think
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: that's a good point. Loader could probably pick up Stein
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: Nerdy of will stay a leverage play. I like this
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: fight a lot. I'm gonna be played a lot can
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: leave money easier with Loader. You can also leave money
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: high ak dropped on a Nerdy of an eighty five hundred.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: You're not giving up much upside. I do want you
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: to compare it to this next fight right in the
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: mid tier, closest price fight the same exact line of
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: that last one Alexandre to Poria minus one forty beset
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: Alkman plus one twenty minus one ninety for this fight
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: to finish both Alcman and to Poria plus one seventy
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: five inside the distance. So I say you have it
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: a four star on both the last fight and this fight,
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: two fights in the mid tier, both expected to finish. Yeah,
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: which one do you prefer? And then how do you
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: see this one going?
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: I'd definitely prefer the other fight more. I might move
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: this one to a three star actually I put it
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: as a four star because you now get to Poria
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: price as an underdog. But he is a favorite, So
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: if you like him, I think he's a fine play,
• 19:47
  Speaker 3: but I'm gonna be more so on the vexat side
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: of this one.
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: I think he is.
• 19:52
  Speaker 3: I mean, I don't know about more dangerous to Poria
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: fights like his brother. He just cocks back that big
• 19:58
  Speaker 3: what is a big left, big right. I think he
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: might be south By and he's trying to get the
• 20:02
  Speaker 3: knockout with that one big shot. He can also mix
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: in some wrestling too, but he's not gonna be relentless
• 20:08
  Speaker 3: with his wrestling pace and he's not a really high
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: pace striker either, so you need the knockout from Toporia,
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: where I think you can get a little bit more
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: from Beck's that. I think he can be more active
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: than to Puria, and in my opinion, he should be
• 20:22
  Speaker 3: the slight favorite in this fight. I'm a bit more
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: impressed with him overall, and I think you're paying for
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: the name to Pooria based on him.
• 20:29
  Speaker 2: Being the favorite in this one.
• 20:30
  Speaker 3: I really think that there's a percentage of his betting
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: value just based on his name alone. So my plan
• 20:37
  Speaker 3: on this one is to let the field take that
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: line movement and keep Tapooria's ownership high, and now that's
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: gonna make becks that go overlooked. I think he could
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: get a first round knockout break the slate, but I
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: also think at eighty two hundred he could be fine
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: in a decision. I don't know if he's gonna be
• 20:56
  Speaker 3: a lot for the optimal. I don't expect him to
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: wrestle much, but this could be a pretty fun fight
• 21:01
  Speaker 3: and I think he could bring an okay pace on
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: the feet.
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: Doesn't look like it with this.
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: Strike it with his point six', eight but that's that's
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: not telling the full story because he was laying on
• 21:14
  Speaker 3: his back face In. Umar BUT i just think this
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: is a pretty decent fight and the line, movements in my,
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: opinion going wrong With.
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: YEAH i wanted to mention that, too LIKE i always
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: struggle when, LIKE i know that the numbers don't tell
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: the whole, story BUT i also don't want people to
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: think it's a. Debuter but he's had two fights in THE.
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: Ufc one of them was Against, umar where he landed
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: three significant strikes in his. Debut he did get a
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: knockdout in that. Fight after that it was All umar five,
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: takedowns eleven and a half minutes of control. Time no shame
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: in that he went fifteen minutes With. Umar that in
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: itself is. Impressive and then The Brad, katona who's a good,
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: fighter he knocked him out in a minute four, seconds
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: just straight banked him right. There so it's really hard
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: to like the significant strikes in a takedowns, whatever that
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: number does not mean anything right. Now i'm with you,
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: though for the sense of like just this is a
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: game theory. Fight for, me IT'S i Think toaporia is
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: gonna take steam because he's now the favorite as a
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: cheaper fighter and has the. Name if you spend two hundred, more,
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: yeah you get a slight dog the same inside the
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: distance prop THOUGH i think it should be probably more
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: of a pick. Them On tuesday we actually had him
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: as a slight. Favorite becksot minus one fifteen minus one
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: oh five now To pooria minus one thirty. Five so
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: it chose money has been coming in on To. Poria. Yeah,
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: again LIKE i the last NAME i think does. Something
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: but more, importantly if you think That taporia is thirty
• 22:39
  Speaker 1: percent In becksacks twenty five PERCENT i prefer To. Poria
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: i'll take the cheaper fighter who's the favorite at only
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: five percent more. Ownership if it's something like a thirty
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: seven percent twenty four, percent then we're in a whole different,
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: ballgame And i'll take the ownership discount on backside for
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: a close fight that. Way SO i think what you
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: do in this fight to turn or should be dedicated
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: or predicated on how do you see the? Ownership is
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: it going to be a big? Gap THEN i think
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: you played backside for clear leverage game theory. Purposes if
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: you think it's pretty, close you take the favorite for
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: cheaper because it's not wide. Enough So i'm on the
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: boat THAT i think it does widen and gets too.
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: Far so backside's my preferred. Play but if it comes
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: in like thirty twenty, FIVE i would want to be
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: on the taporious side that. Way so that's HOW i see.
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: It what you predict ownership comes down to your preferred
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: side in this. Fight all? Right next fight on the
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: card to gear uhinback of minus two, Hundred cara hurts
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: your guy definitely butchered the. Name he's making his return
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: after nine years, though save for, Me SO i CAN
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: i can get it right.
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: Much Or gucci there we go Or.
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: Gucci i' mean. Man he was in THE ufc twenty
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: sixteen was when he, left and then he's fighting still ever,
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: since making a return nine years later For Horror gucci
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: thirty four and. Five what a record that is is
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: thirty five years. Old though had a great first stint
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: with THE, ufc only losing. Ones he is coming back,
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: though in a pretty tough matchup against Tigear uWin, beckoff
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: who wants to get it to the mats plus two
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: hundred for this fight to Finish Uluin beckov plus two
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: to eighty five inside the? Distance who Are Horror gucci
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: plus six. HUNDRED i don't love this fight. Much you
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: have it a? Okay you have a two. STAR i
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: THOUGHT i saw four for a. Sec looks like we're
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: on the same. Page you have more stars on The
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: Horror gucci. Side how does he score over eighty five
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: in this?
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: Fight knocked?
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: Out he's pretty, dangerous BUT i have it as a
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: two star BECAUSE i don't really like this. Fight i'm
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: picking him to win just Because i'm not really A
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: Nulan bekov.
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: GUY i think he's well.
• 24:52
  Speaker 3: Rounded he could take the fight anywhere he, wants but On,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: DraftKings he's really only good if he gets a first round.
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: SUBMISSION i don't see him going out there taking Down
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: horagucci like eight. Times i'm putting up a big score
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: in a, decision and he's just a low volume. Overall
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: Horror gucci kind of has a low volume miss you,
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: too but he's a good Right he's good. EVERYWHERE i
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: was a Big Horror gucci fan back in the. DAY
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: i think he fought for the title Against, demetrius and, like,
• 25:18
  Speaker 3: REALLY i thought they should have never let him, go
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: but he fought as. That he's been fighting a ton
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: since he, left so he's probably paid a ton of,
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: Money so do your. THING i Guess horagucci good to
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: see him, back But i'm not going to be investing
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: too much in this fight for, me with my, Handbuilds
• 25:34
  Speaker 3: i'll be axing out Ulan. Bekov IF i land on
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: Hor gucci for my final, Spot i'm cool with. That FOR,
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: Mmm i'll probably just make sure Ulan bekov is projected
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: below people around him SO i don't end up with
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: too much of. Them But i'm fine mixing them in
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: a little, bit and THEN i would be okay If
• 25:55
  Speaker 3: sabersim gave me a little bit more Hor gucci THAN i, wanted.
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: Because he can get, There he can mix in.
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: Takedowns too hard to see against a guy Like Ulaan,
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: bekov BUT i Mean Ulan becka has been taken down
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: multiple times by multiple, people SO i think he. Could
• 26:10
  Speaker 3: he could get, there and even in a decision, WIN
• 26:12
  Speaker 3: i would expect Hor gucci to score close to ten
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: nex if, not if not more, So Horror gucci are
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: mainly past for.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: Me all, right you talked me in and More Horror
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: gucci THAN i was already gonna. Play it wasn't wasn't
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: gonna play much of this. FIGHT i THINK i Picked
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: Ulin beckov by decision just worried About Horror. GUCCI i
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Mean Uln beckov wants to fight on the mat if
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: he gets a takedown and controls the whole first, round
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: even if he does two, rounds you know WHAT i. Mean,
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: like it's it's tough for them For Horror gucci to
• 26:39
  Speaker 1: score in a decision if he is spending time off his,
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: back but he has seventy six. Hundred he talked me
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: into probably getting a little more of, him but not
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: one of my favorite, fights one of my least favorite
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: fights on the. Card, actually let's go to my least
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: favorite fighter on the card and should come to no,
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: Surprise Rafiel sakara plus one thousand underdog To Abdul Yeah,
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: kiev who's minus two. THOUSAND i mean we went from
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: minus six hundred opening to minus two. THOUSAND i, mean
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: what are we doing sanction in this? Fight Sir kira
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: is oh and three in THE, ufc been not been
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: finished in round one, twice and now he gets arguably
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: his toughest test to. Date, like what are they trying to,
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: improve like to prove with this aubdual. Guy, yeah he's
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: making HIS ufc, debut he's seven and, zero he's young
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: at twenty. FOUR i, mean we're just gonna watch an ass.
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: Kick and SO i, mean, like what would you set
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: the first minute bonus? At BECAUSE i think at ninety eight,
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: Hundred arman turukans three hundred less and he's if you
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: think he dominates LIKE i. DO i, Mean i'm almost
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: penciling in one hundred, plus SO i almost, want ALMOST
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: i almost need that, bonus is What i'm telling.
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: MYSELF i actually looked it up for this.
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: Fight to end in the first sixty seconds on, DraftKings
• 27:50
  Speaker 3: which almost all that equity is on yak Yaiev. IS
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: i believe it was plus four, fifty which is eighteen percent.
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: Range so that he's gonna be.
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: Underweight that's pretty. GOOD i mean that's eighteen percent just
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: for the first.
• 28:04
  Speaker 3: MANY i, mean but he's got what minus seven fifty
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: inside the distance or something like. That you're almost locking
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: in a first round win here and either a ten
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: point knockdown or a five point. Takedown so you're like
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: starting with that floor at ninety five or.
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: One, hundred and then it's, like do we get the
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: quick win bonus? Two SO i.
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: DON'T i, MEAN i think he gets, it to be
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: honest with, YOU i THINK i think he ends this
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: guy in the first in the first. Minute SO i want.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: HIM i want him in my. Lineups If i'm struggling
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: to get, there it's probably Because armand's already in my.
• 28:37
  Speaker 3: Lineup but if, not Then i'm just easily down To.
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: Armand armand's my favorite play on the. Slate but if
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: it wasn't for the like If yakiyayeva was ninety six,
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: HUNDRED i think that would be so much easier ninety eight.
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: YEAR i hate ninety eight hundred in, general but he's
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: the type of guy a setup fight where we want
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: to clear highlight reel finish from you in the first.
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: Round we'll give you the easiest test you can. GET i,
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: MEAN i want. Him he's he's gonna put up a big.
• 29:06
  Speaker 3: Score it's just how many other big scores are there
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: on the card and is it?
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: Enough?
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: Yeah, No i'm definitely gonna play a decent amount. Too
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: it's one where IF i had fifteen percent AND i
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: loved everything, Else i'm good with. It if that's the,
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: Case i'm probably have eighty Percent Armin, serukian And i'd
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: be fine with. That if i'd sixty percent of this Guy. Yakev,
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: YEAH i, mean IF i loved everything else and i'd
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: sixty percent of a minus two thousand guy who's minus
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: eight hundred inside the distance and minus one seventy five
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: and round, one, YEAH i, Mean i'm never gonna say
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: no to that as. Well i'm probably somewhere in the
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: thirty percent, ballpark IF i had to. Guess but, yeah
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: there's enough live dogs on this. Card fourteen, fights the
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: more fights and more likely dogs that come, Through, like
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: if we get four dogs winning on this, Card yakiev
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: at one oh nine is a lot more likely to
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: get there than only one underdog winning on this, Card
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: so you have to think about it that as well
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: when you are spending ninety eight hundred. Bucks but, yeah
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: first minute, Bonus, like even if we only got one
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: underdog and he got a first minute bonus at one twenty,
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: six you might see A Nicholas dalby thirty nine point
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: loss being the winner just because what it gets you with.
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: Yakievs so, yeah very interesting game theory. Spot i'm Glad
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: DraftKings did price it up ninety eight hundred to make
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: it a little more difficult for, us because ninety six would,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: have no doubt been too.
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: Cheap all, right let's keep it.
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: Rolling ANOTHER ufc, Debuter Luke riley minus two fifty taking
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: On Bogu don grad at plus two ten minus one
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: fifty for this fight to, Finish riley plus one fifteen
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: inside the distance grad plus four hundred twenty six year,
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: old twenty six year old eleven to. Zero Luke riley
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: making HIS ufc debut From Cage. Warriors the striking looks,
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: good no doubt about. THAT i do Expect grod to
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: try and wrestle in this. One, Yeah i'm definitely Playing
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: grod at seventy one hundred in a. WIN i think
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: he has some of the most upside of any, underdog
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: AND i think If riley can stuff takedowns and keep
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: it on the, feet we're seeing one way traffic with
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: first round, upside and he's definitely going to be lower
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: owned than some others in the upper. Tiers so, Yeah
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: i'm definitely playing both sides of this. Fight what about?
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: You, yeah it's a good. ONE i Think.
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: Grod is going to start off with the more aggressive
• 31:19
  Speaker 3: pace and the possible, wrestling and if he wins, PERIOD
• 31:22
  Speaker 3: i do expect a good score from him seventy. One
• 31:27
  Speaker 3: it could be a No, grod No cash type of
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: night if he gets it. Done But, riley his issue
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: is that he's a slow. Starter if he drops the first,
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: round it's probably Because grod was wrestling or he was
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: just coming on with a, pace And riley's like he's
• 31:42
  Speaker 3: like A Marlon vera or somewhere, where like it takes
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: him a little bit to get warmed. Up BUT i
• 31:47
  Speaker 3: Expect riley to have a big striking edge in the
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: second and the third really in every, round but in
• 31:51
  Speaker 3: the second and the third, round once he starts picking
• 31:54
  Speaker 3: up his volume and putting it together and starting to READ,
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: GROD i kind of think he just picks him. Apart
• 32:00
  Speaker 3: SO i think he can get a second or third
• 32:02
  Speaker 3: round knockout a decision at ninety one, HUNDRED i don't
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: see him getting there because he's probably not, wrestling so
• 32:09
  Speaker 3: we need to knockout for. Him i'll probably look to
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: max my exposure around HIS tko or inside the distance.
• 32:17
  Speaker 3: LINE i like other favorites, more But i'm definitely cool With,
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: riley AND i think he's going to be a FUN ufc.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: Fighter Rank saigid ninety three, Hundred Alley of ninety two,
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: Hundred riley ninety one, hundred Oral by nine. K let's
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: do all of them four, star four, star four, star four,
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: star really putting you on the.
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: SPOT i actually Think riley might be my least favorite
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: of the group. THERE i would agree because the wrestle yeah,
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: yeah but, man the others are all really.
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: CLOSE i like Oral.
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: By's pace more Than, alia BUT i think The alley
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: of fight is just going to take place on the
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: ground all the, time and the World by fight could
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: end up being more on the feet THAN i would.
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: Like so MAYBE i actually Prefer aliv there WHERE i
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: think the field will prefer Oral, By BUT i don't.
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: Know Maybe ISMAGAKMI i have as the best of them
• 33:11
  Speaker 3: all because he kind of has to wrestle. Him if he,
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: WINS i would respect a big.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: Score. Yeah, NO i think just that question alone in
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: Big marley's answer and the difficulty just shows how good
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: of a card this is you can. LIKE i, mean
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: they're all very similar or all Oral, by Aliy of
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: and Uh saigin all can, wrestle they all can put
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: up one. Fifteen they also if they don't have success,
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: wrestling you can see their opponents doing something and them
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: not getting. There SO i do agree It riley probably
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: my least favorite of the. Bunch but that being, SAID
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: i do think the field probably sees that he's plus
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: one fifteen inside the, distance he's plus three eighty five
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: in round. One MAYBE i cap it at the round
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: one prop three eighty five twenty. Percent let's see what
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: we have is projection for quick seventeen? PERCENT i, mean
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: right there, alone his round one props better than his projected.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: Ownership if that's the. CASE i always want to probably
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: get at least with that round one Prop so not
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: that it's guaranteed he's optimal with a round one. Win
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: but if you were told you're seventeen percent on fighters
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: getting a round one victory at ninety one, HUNDRED i
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: mean you're playing. It you're getting overweight at LEAST i.
• 34:16
  Speaker 1: Am so that's HOW i see it, there let's keep it.
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: Rolling good fighter right. Here excited for the return Of Alex.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Perez he does find himself as a plus one sixty
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: five dog taking On Asu almabayev minus one. Ninety this
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: fights plus one fifteen to. Finish i'm a by a
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: plus two to fifty inside the Distance perez plus three.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Hundred nasty torn acl For perez Against tyra a year
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: and a half. Ago he makes his. RETURN i think
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: this is a fun fight in real. LIFE i think
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: you can make a case on both. Sides i'm picking
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: the underdog in this one With, perez and it looks
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: like you have more stars on that. Side so are
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: you Picking perez as? Well?
• 34:55
  Speaker 3: YEAH i Think perez is the better and more well rounded.
• 35:01
  Speaker 3: Fighter he's coming off bad. Injury who knows how he's
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: gonna look after. That but his biggest weakness in my,
• 35:09
  Speaker 3: opinion is his, chin And almabia is not somebody who's
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: going out there knocking people. Out i'mabia is a good
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: wrestler and he sets a good high pace with his,
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: wrestling But Alex perez is a really good wrestler, himself
• 35:22
  Speaker 3: AND i don't See almabia being able to land seven
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: takedowns on A. Perez and if this fight is taking
• 35:29
  Speaker 3: place on the, feet because they're both good, WRESTLERS i
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: Think perez beats him. There so my opinion value on
• 35:36
  Speaker 3: The perez, SIDE i don't really trust him enough to
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: WHERE i haven't met him, yet but he is on
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: my list of possible bets as an underdog and ON.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: DFS i think.
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: My issue with him is, that like for him to
• 35:49
  Speaker 3: put up a big, score we kind of need him
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: to get a knockout BECAUSE i don't know that we
• 35:52
  Speaker 3: see the wrestling from. Him on the other, side he
• 35:55
  Speaker 3: probably wants to keep this fight on the, feet and
• 35:57
  Speaker 3: if it's a striking based decision from where he probably
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: is taking down a couple times throughout the fight and
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: he's not scoring off of his. BACK i just don't
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: Think perez puts up a GOOD dfs, score SO i
• 36:09
  Speaker 3: like him more as a bet THAN i do as
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: A dfs, play which maybe puts this as a two
• 36:15
  Speaker 3: star for me overall as the, fight but more So
• 36:19
  Speaker 3: perez are passed for.
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: Me, yeah, No i'm in agreement with a lot of.
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: That PEREZ i picking to. Win he's my preferred play
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: twelve hundred. SAVINGS i think his wrestling is good enough
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: to keep this fight mainly on the, feet get up
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: if he is taken, down and on the. FEET i
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: just think he's a better. FIGHTER i think the line's
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: a little. Disrespectful haven't seen a lot of line movement
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: in this one, Though minus won twenty. NINE a sue
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: opened as the, favorite got all the way down to
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: minus two to two just two days, ago and then
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: a little buy back or actually minus two to ten,
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: yesterday and then twenty cents buyback on The perez side.
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: Today so as, Always i'm always keeping a close eye
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: on the line. Movement again ten Am, eastern, though so
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: the Overnight friday, Stuff i'll be up. Early i'll be
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: making my lineups On saturday. Morning and if you do
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: see there is any big line movement, CHANGES i will
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: update in the discord and let everyone. Know, sorry if
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: you can hear that very loud plane above my, house
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: you can't hear. It perfect all, right let's keep it.
• 37:18
  Speaker 1: Rolling next fight on the. Card this was supposed to
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: Be ghazia Versus speedbac out A speedboc in his wall
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: though on day's, notice and this is where the pricing
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: is gonna be. Weird So ghazia was a favorite Over.
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: Speedbac he was minus one Forty speedbock plus one. Twenty
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: it was eighty four hundred seventy eight. Hundred now wal
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: though steps in on day's, notice finds himself is a
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: favorite Over ghazi of minus one forty seven plus one twenty.
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: Seven he actually opened the dog at plus one ozh.
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: Five what do we? Got thirty minutes? Later it got
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: all the way down to minus one seventy and then
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: some buyback on The gazi of. SIDE i am expecting
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: this to be eighty four Hundred gazia of eighty three
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: Hundred waldough they do not like price sing fighters the
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: same as like other. People there is no eighty three
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: hundred dollars price. Fighter he has a minus one forty seven.
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: Favorite everything would check the, boxes SO i do not
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: see any inside the distance. Prop let's see under two
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: and a half is minus one ten open plus one,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: thirty so a little money is coming on the. Under
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: what that looks like probably minus one thirty five ish
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: for this fight to? Finish what what fight could be
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: have or what fight could have? Similar what fight was
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: also minus one ten to? FINISH i thought we just talked.
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: About as a goak mayav oh that, yep good call
• 38:42
  Speaker 3: The delby.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: Fight so under two and a half was plus one
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: twenty in this. One so now it's gonna be uh,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: yeah minus one thirty five minus one forty probably for
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: this fight to. Finish and that's. Important so eighty four
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: hundred and eighty three hundred fighter minus one forty seven
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: favorite is a coast as a one hundred cheaper, fighter
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: let's say around minus one forty for this fight to.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: Finish how do you rank it in the mid?
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: TIER i really don't care for it too. MUCH i
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: think you're really relying on the finish for this fight to.
• 39:13
  Speaker 2: Score.
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: Well ghaziev is gonna have the wrestling grappling, edge but
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: after round ONE i don't trust that to be the.
• 39:20
  Speaker 3: Case AND i also don't think That Cortesa coast is
• 39:23
  Speaker 3: gonna be easier to take, down and after round, ONE
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: i think it'll be harder to take him, down so
• 39:27
  Speaker 3: we almost might be forced on the feet the second
• 39:30
  Speaker 3: of the third, rounds AND i Think Cortesa coasta wins
• 39:34
  Speaker 3: those two. Rounds maybe he drops the first striking can
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: go either.
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: Way in the first, ROUND.
• 39:38
  Speaker 3: I Think ghaziv maybe could be more, dangerous but a
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: coaster should just be the better boxer in every, round
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: AND i think the longer this, goes the more he takes.
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: Over but in a, DECISION i just don't think he does.
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: Enough So i'm gonna it's closer to a two star
• 39:56
  Speaker 3: than it is a four star for. Me but if
• 39:58
  Speaker 3: the inside the distance line it starts getting, juiced THEN
• 40:01
  Speaker 3: i would like it. More so it's, really what's the
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: chance of this fight? Finishing that's how MUCH i like.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: It, yeah and even a round three, Finish i'm not
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: convinced it gets. There maybe in the mid tier it
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: does for, me THOUGH i agree with what you. Say
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: If i'm going down mid tier, fights which we consider
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: eighty five seventy seven right outside the mid, Tier Freeman
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: buloh by Far a better. FIGHT i prefer nerdy of
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: loader on both. SIDES i prefer alkman to pour you
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: on both. Sides, wow we do have eight two eighty
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: six hundred and seventy. Six. HUH i don't know. WHY
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: i just noticed, that AND i Prefer oh those are
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: the only mid tier. Fights, YEAH i mean it's of
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: The If i'm including this in the mid tier, fight
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: it's my fourth. Favorite If i'm not, including it's my third.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: Favorite so, yeah two big. Heavyweights neither wrestles right now
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: under two and a half minus one ten if it
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: gets to the third, round, THOUGH i don't think it really.
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: Scores so, yeah my least favorite fight in the mid
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: tier as. Well four fights. LEFT i think this is
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: a fun fight right here. Though metsabic Oral bi minus
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: two Forty Jacker manson plus two oh five minus one
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: oh five for this fight to, finish Or bi plus
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: one twenty five inside the distance Her manson plus six.
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: FIFTY a little money has come in on the under
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: plus plus one fifteen to finish On tuesday now it's
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: minus one oh. Five orbi sets a high pace and he,
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: wrestles SO i Like orbi most times when he. FIGHTS
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: i think that'll Force Jacker manson into a pretty high
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: pace fight as. Well he's very, skilled he's seventy two.
• 41:31
  Speaker 1: HUNDRED i just really need to see how he looks
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: on the. Scales man one eighty. Five now he's going
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: down to one. Seventy Or by has fought at one fifty,
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Five SO i, mean if he can make it make
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: this way successfully and Not, GAS i Mean i'm picking
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: Her manson if that's the. Case the problem is Or
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: by when he, wins he does, score and a big
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: difference in that inside the distance Prop so while on
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: the money, LINE i think it's Her manson for ME.
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: Dfs Obviously i'm going to play some Har manson for that,
• 41:59
  Speaker 1: reason But robi is as much upside as, anyone and
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: it's only nine, ks SO i like this fight a.
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Ton i'll pick Her, manson BUT i gotta see him
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: on the.
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: Scales, YEAH i just agree with everything you.
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: SAID i need to see how he looks because imagining
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: him at one seventy is just hard to.
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: Imagine but he is good.
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: Everywhere If worlebi wins his, FIGHT i PUT i expect
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: a big.
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: Score he's put up over.
• 42:23
  Speaker 3: One hundred and seven in all of his, wins and
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: he's gonna have to wrestle pretty heavily for him to
• 42:28
  Speaker 3: dominate or not, dominate but look like a minus two forty.
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: Favorite if Her manson comes into this, fight you, know
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: weighing two hundred, pounds.
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: The wrestling might be kind of hard for Roll.
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: By AND i mean Her manson couldn't land a couple
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: of takedowns of his, own but he should have the
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: striking edge and he could finish Oral by really by any.
• 42:51
  Speaker 3: Method he's a well rounded. Fighter thirty seven years. Old
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: dropping down to one seventy typically not a good. Sign
• 42:58
  Speaker 3: SO i am going to side With orroby as the
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: pick and the preferred. Play but If i'm building the,
• 43:03
  Speaker 3: LINEUP i end up seventy two hundred. Left i'm glad
• 43:05
  Speaker 3: to click on Her.
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: Manson couldn't agree. MORE i agree with all that when
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: Or by scores he, scores definitely will be keeping a
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: close eye at the. Scales though three fights, Left Volkan
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: uzdemir minus two twenty five the lines Of manifield plus
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: one ninety minus one eighty for this fight to, Finish
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: uzdmir minus one ten inside the Distance manifield plus four
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Hundred what do we see? Here so this fight was
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: minus one seventy to finish On. Tuesday now it's minus one,
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: eighty so little money has come in on the Under
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: this was kind of the similar To alia, fight WHERE
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: i don't love the, fight But i'm gonna probably be
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: around the field on both because there's a clear path on.
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: Both they both hit, hard random stuff can. Happen they're
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: gonna be low owned. Two with that being, said LIKE
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: i prefer Her, MANSON i Prefer, GOROD i Prefer. ROCK
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: i like all them more Than alonzo at the end
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: of the day for cheap and For. OZDEMIR i Like
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: oral buy. MORE i Like yaki have. MORE i Like
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: nerdy have. MORE i Like, SAIGIT i Like, ARMIN i
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: Like freeman LIKE i just like a lot of other fights.
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: More but they're two big. Guys if they find the,
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: chin they can go. Down but, yeah two primary, strikers
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: slow pace. Fight not my, favorite even though it is
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: minus one eighty to.
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: Finish, yeah definitely not my favorite.
• 44:22
  Speaker 2: EITHER i think we're really relying on all The.
• 44:28
  Speaker 3: We're relying on a, knockout so all the finishing bonus
• 44:32
  Speaker 3: is what we need in this. One BECAUSE i just
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: think it's gonna be a slow paced striking match where
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: neither guys really looking to land. Takedowns maybe they fall
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: into one or, two but this should be a striking
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: match for as long as it takes, place AND i
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: kind of think it's gonna take place for three rounds
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: and neither one of these guys is gonna put up
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: a big. Score if that's the, Case olsimir does have
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: a PLUS i mean a pick them inside the distance, line,
• 44:55
  Speaker 3: though SO i mean that's pretty, good DON'T i don't
• 45:01
  Speaker 3: like clicking on him like almost, ever, though So i'm gonna.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: End up being underweight no matter what. Happens but that
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: makes me want to fade him.
• 45:08
  Speaker 3: LESS i GUESS i would say that's really WHY i
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: have this as a three star rather than a two,
• 45:12
  Speaker 3: star because these guys both have big time. Power it
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: only takes one, shot and if that one shot is
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: in the first, round they're on the optimal, lineup so
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: you can't really fade this. Fight but it's ONE i
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: plan on being more underweight on than.
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: Over seems like you AND i are lockstett like our
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: gutting everything saying, Fade but they're two big guys that
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: can throw bombs and if one, CONNECTS i, mean we
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: look like a fool to be saying anything, else But
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: bolkan's my preferred side in this, fight just because Man
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: alonzo's just looks so gross to. Me and seeing the
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: minus one ten inside the, distance LIKE i think that round,
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: one let's see him in round one is plus two
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: to seventy. Five that's a great. Number plus two seventy
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: five is twenty six. Percent chance our projected ownership is
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: under twenty six. PERCENT i expected he is a pivot
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: in the upper. Tier so just another example Like, riley
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: when you're trying to make low owned clicks or low
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: issuing clicks pivots in the upper. Tier an easy way
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: to talk yourself into it is the run one props
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: better than their ownership or higher than their ownership's. Projecting
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: just like, that you can play him for. Sure two
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: fights left before we. Do first one to shout out
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: our friends at splash, sports hook us up over here
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• 46:34
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• 46:38
  Speaker 1: can help. Use you can use our. Projections but, yeah
• 46:42
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• 46:45
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• 46:47
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• 47:04
  Speaker 1: Bucks we would love to have. You plenty of sports
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: going on right. Now two fights, left big fight for
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: the welterweight. DIVISION i don't know. About FOR Dfs Ian
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: gary minus two fifty Five Ballala muhammed plus two to
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: fifteen plus two to fifty for this fight to Finish
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: gary plus three ten inside the distance ballall plus seven.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: Fifty i'm in total agreement with. YOU i might even
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: put that three star to a two. STAR i just
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: couldn't imagine Clicking Ian gary's. Name great real life, fighter
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: just doesn't get the job. Done FOR dfs minus two
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: seventy or minus three twenty five for this fight to
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: go the distance open minus two seventy. Five gary the,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: STRIKER i JUST i think you need a lot to go.
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: Right give Me, volkan Gimme, riley give me the guys
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: we didn't even love in the upper tier. Ballall if he,
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: wins it's through. Wrestling he's seventy four, hundred So i'll
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: place on that. Way but, Man gary's, tough like the dude,
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: is is very skilled and well, rounded SO i think
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: he wins a. DECISION i think the fight bus ball
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: is my preferred, play, though how do you see? It?
• 48:07
  Speaker 3: Yeah gary should have a big striking, edge and he's
• 48:11
  Speaker 3: probably a good enough wrestler to be able to keep
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: the fight on the, Feet So i'm definitely fine with
• 48:15
  Speaker 3: him being the. Favorite but if he wins FOR, dfs
• 48:19
  Speaker 3: it kind of has to be a knockout because eighty
• 48:21
  Speaker 3: eight hundred is a big price to pay for someone
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: who's probably not going to wrestle against a guy Like,
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: muhammad and he doesn't strike at a high enough. Pace
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: his average in three round decision wins is like seventy four.
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: Points if he gets seventy four at eighty eight, hundred
• 48:37
  Speaker 3: you're not gonna. Win So i'm gonna fade. Him i'm
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: just gonna x him out if he gets a. Knockout
• 48:43
  Speaker 3: if it's in the first, round then Maybe i'm.
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: Done but if.
• 48:46
  Speaker 3: It's in the second, ROUND i feel LIKE i can survive,
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: that So i'm gonna take my chances. THERE i do
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: definitely want Some, muhammad, though because he has to wrestle.
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: IT i, MEAN i don't know if he will chain
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: wrestle enough to guarantee him dictating this fight taking place
• 49:02
  Speaker 3: on the, ground BUT i don't think he's a good
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: enough striker to have a chance on the, feat so
• 49:07
  Speaker 3: he needs to. Wrestle he can, wrestle he can wrestle
• 49:10
  Speaker 3: at a high pace for three. Rounds he only has three,
• 49:13
  Speaker 3: rounds so he doesn't have to conserve any energy in this,
• 49:16
  Speaker 3: fight and HE'S i think he could get eight to
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: ten takedowns in this fight and score one hundred and
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: ten plus in a. DECISION i don't feel good about him,
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: winning BUT i feel good about him scoring well in a.
• 49:27
  Speaker 2: Win SO i will be heavy On muhammad at seventy four.
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: Hundred you And i've see it the exact same. Way
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: if he, wins he should score probably doesn't, win but,
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: yeah he's seventy four hundred definitely a dog to keep
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: in the. PORTFOLIO i will have No Ian gary more than,
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: likely especially If i'm only building a handful of. Teams
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: last fight of the night main. Events big favorite in
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: the main Event Arman seruki minus five, Fifty Dan hooker
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: plus four hundred minus two ten for this fight to,
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: Finish serokie minus won seventy inside the Distance hooker plus seven.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: HUNDRED i Mean Dan hooker is gonna be over owned
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: just because of his, name for it being a twenty
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: five minute fight and his, PRICE i will probably x
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: Out Dan. HOOKER i prefer all these other dogs that
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: we've talked. About seruki in my favorite play on the,
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: slate but the abuild or If i'm Fading Dan, hooker
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: that MEANS i can use some of those lineups THAT
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: i would have otherwise played them and fade this. Fight
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: and that's exactly What i'm gonna. Do If yakiv scores
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: one twenty six and gets the bonus And serukian scores
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: one oh, eight there's other guys we talked about in
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: the upper tier that can outscore one oh. Eight so
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: for that, reason A serukian submission in a minute and
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: eight seconds in ninety. Four we've seen crazy stuff IN,
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: mma SO i think he scores over one. Hundred he's
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: my favorite, fighter he'll be my highest. Own but Because
• 50:48
  Speaker 1: i'm playing No Dan, Hooker i'm not gonna force this.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: Fight IF i had one hundred Percent, Armin i'd probably
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: go with, it But i'm expecting to have some fight
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: phase and be overweight to that as. Well arman or
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: nobody in this. Fire If Dan hooker's on the, winner
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: it'll be bad. News bears over here take it.
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: Away, YEAH i.
• 51:06
  Speaker 3: AGREE i had this as a four star armand two Star,
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: hooker but THEN i was, like you know, What i'm
• 51:13
  Speaker 3: just going all in On.
• 51:14
  Speaker 2: Armand on this.
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: One i've been calling him to be a champion for
• 51:17
  Speaker 3: a long time, now AND i just don't Think hooker
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: is going to be the guy that stops.
• 51:20
  Speaker 2: Him If.
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: Hooker does win this, FIGHT i think it's probably a headkick.
• 51:25
  Speaker 3: Knockout ends my, night But i'm just gonna x him.
• 51:28
  Speaker 3: OUT i, Also i'm not gonna have one hundred and
• 51:29
  Speaker 3: fifty most, Likely so for, me it's it's more so
• 51:32
  Speaker 3: ten to twenty lineup, range AND i just don't think
• 51:36
  Speaker 3: it's that crazy fading somebody completely with ten to twenty.
• 51:40
  Speaker 3: Lineups so for, me it's just easy fade On hooker
• 51:43
  Speaker 3: AND i probably do go all in on armand IF i,
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: don't it's BECAUSE i got enough money to go up
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: To Yak. YAYEV i just don't THINK i Fade armand
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: to go to somebody below, him unless it's a lineup
• 51:55
  Speaker 3: WHERE i just couldn't get a ninety five hundred dollars
• 51:58
  Speaker 3: fighter in my, lineup but THAT i had something like
• 52:01
  Speaker 3: that on the last, card WHERE i didn't have anybody
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: in the upper, range LIKE i couldn't even get up
• 52:05
  Speaker 3: To islam or something with that. Lineup in this, card
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: it's not an. Issue there's so many good underdogs on this,
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: card SO i THINK i can.
• 52:13
  Speaker 2: Afford armand no. Problem and in.
• 52:16
  Speaker 3: A fight where he's not the clear better, striker he
• 52:19
  Speaker 3: could be the better striker and he could knock Out Dan.
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: Hooker but when he's not the clear better striker and
• 52:25
  Speaker 3: his danger is on the, FEET i think he should
• 52:28
  Speaker 3: be wrestling a little bit more than. Normal he could
• 52:30
  Speaker 3: get five to ten takedowns on this, fight SO i
• 52:33
  Speaker 3: expect a big score From.
• 52:35
  Speaker 2: ARMAN i think he has the highest ceiling on the.
• 52:38
  Speaker 3: Card and that includes yakiyay of getting a quick wind BOWS.
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: I agree, With, yeah almost all of. That NOW i
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: won't like When i'm not Playing. Armin i'm fine IF i,
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: start IF i have a team that my spends are
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: oral By sigid And Denzel, freeman you know WHAT i.
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: Mean AND i just don't have the money to upgrade
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: From saigi To serukian like it left. Zero i'm good
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: playing lineups like. THAT i think the upper tier is
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: strong enough with multiple spots THAT i can get away with. That,
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: NOW i don't love playing side get Over arman and
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: having the two hundred to upgrade now in the largest
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: field stuff three dollars. Like i'm not gonna say it's,
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: bad but, yeah When i'm not Playing armin Or, yakiev
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: When i'm fading both of, THEM i probably more than
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: likely will not have the money to upgrade and maybe
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: just get a little different that. Way that's ALL i got,
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: Though Big marley fourteen fights fingers, crossed we keep all
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: fourteen been on quite the role with fighters making weight
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: or at least missing small enough SLASH ufc making it
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: work where we keep all the. Fights but, yeah if we,
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: DO i Think we're in for a. Tree ten Am
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: eastern early violence On. Saturdays can't beat, That, yes sir tain.
• 53:44
  Speaker 3: Am hopefully we wake, up have a good sweat and
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: then you go out to whatever you want that, night
• 53:48
  Speaker 3: and then we got.
• 53:49
  Speaker 2: Football On, sunday so can't. Wait.
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: Man good luck to you, title good luck to everybody.
• 53:53
  Speaker 3: Listening let's ship, It.
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: Let's ship it. Again ship. Nineteen if you want to
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: join us at The nation five days for nineteen and
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: if you do want to take advantage fifty dollars deposit
• 54:03
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• 54:06
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• 54:09
  Speaker 1: code ship It. All content will be up. Tomorrow we
• 54:13
  Speaker 1: will take everybody in the discord when it is. Done
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: appreciate all y'all hanging out live or on playback again
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: like fun is all we ask. For that's going to
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: do it for my, Man Big. Marley i'm, titled have
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: a good, weekend be, safe peace
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: And then