Latest / Toadstool Sports / Wednesday BEST BETS | 4 Sport | NHL & WNBA Playoffs & MLB Divisional Series & NCAA Football| 10/7/26

Transcript

Wednesday BEST BETS | 4 Sport | NHL & WNBA Playoffs & MLB Divisional Series & NCAA Football| 10/7/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:16
  Speaker 1: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: your head Now you stare at the chips like they
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: made you this mad But don't you go quiet, don't
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: you fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: Look at me now.
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Not tonight, not now Hold on, hold on Let me
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: pull you out That fella fights hard But he don't
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: get the.
• 1:12
  Speaker 4: Crown Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 1:28
  Speaker 3: What's up, everybody? It's Toad back with you. Toadstool Sports Thursday.
• 1:32
  Speaker 3: Or no, Wednesday. What am I saying? I don't even
• 1:33
  Speaker 3: know what day it is. Wednesday, October 7th. I don't know.
• 1:39
  Speaker 3: College football starting earlier in the week is throwing me off.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: We got the one play right yesterday with the under
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: in Braves-Dodgers. The Dodgers only scored in one inning, although
• 1:49
  Speaker 3: they happened to score three runs in that inning on
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: two home runs. But that was pretty much the entirety
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: of the scoring in the game. The Braves got one run,
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: and then that was it. So that one was pretty easy,
• 2:01
  Speaker 3: although not a great number. I mean, below the key
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: number is seven, but we still got that one right. Yeah,
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: I don't think I have too much else to say
• 2:10
  Speaker 3: about that, although I was right about the Red Wings
• 2:11
  Speaker 3: in hockey. I was right about Troy in the football game.
• 2:14
  Speaker 3: That was way higher scoring than I thought it would be,
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: but the one thing about Troy, by the way, is
• 2:19
  Speaker 3: they're good at running the football, and Southern Miss is
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: a terrible run defense. That's one thing I also should
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: have pointed out, but I don't think that game is
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: not going to make the cut for me anyway. Let's
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: get into today. I think I'm going to skip the
• 2:32
  Speaker 3: whole board today, by the way. I don't have any game...
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: Really prepared here. I'll tell you what my strongest opinion
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: is in each sport, I suppose. But I don't like
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: the board today. We have three hockey games. Pittsburgh at
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: Washington on TNT. I'm starting with hockey just because, I
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: don't know, I feel like people think it's the least interesting,
• 2:53
  Speaker 3: even though it might be one of the better betting sports.
• 2:57
  Speaker 3: Washington lost to Tampa Bay in their last game. They're 1-1,
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: but I mean, I think they're a competitive team here.
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: They've had two difficult games. Carolina and Tampa Bay they've
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: had a bunch of days off now now this is
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: their first home game well yes it's technically it is
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: a return home spot for them here but they only
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: were away Friday Saturday and this is their home opener
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: so I don't really see that being a spot where
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: they're going to get totally distracted or whatever that doesn't
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: necessarily mean they're going to be the right side here
• 3:23
  Speaker 3: though um they are stepping kind of down in class
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: to face Pittsburgh Pittsburgh what Maybe Pittsburgh is an overlookable team,
• 3:33
  Speaker 3: although they started out 2-0. Pittsburgh's had an easier schedule somewhat.
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: I mean, facing Philadelphia, Montreal, Winnipeg, a little bit less difficult,
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: in my opinion, than what Washington has faced so far
• 3:46
  Speaker 3: because Washington just happened to face two of the actual
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: top teams in the league pretty much. Pittsburgh just lost
• 3:53
  Speaker 3: to Winnipeg. They've had less time off, but they're starting
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: a road trip here. Could arguably be a bounce back
• 3:59
  Speaker 3: for them after kind of an ugly game against Winnipeg.
• 4:02
  Speaker 3: They had their backup goalie in in that game. Pittsburgh's
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: primary goalie should be back in net here, which is Silovs,
• 4:08
  Speaker 3: who I think they got in that Edmonton trade last year,
• 4:11
  Speaker 3: if I'm not mistaken. The money is seemingly indicating on
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: Pittsburgh here. 74% of tickets, 64% of the cash on Washington.
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: They're around a minus 160-something favor. That money line's gone
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: down a little bit on them. And expected to be
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: a high-scoring game with money coming in on the over
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: in that game as well. I don't have a whole
• 4:30
  Speaker 3: lot on that, but that's not a game I would
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: want to get involved in at all, personally. Colorado is
• 4:36
  Speaker 3: at Winnipeg. Colorado, obviously, the significantly better team here. Winnipeg
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: off to a 2-0 in one start, though. So, good
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: start to the season for them, but we know... They
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: got some issues, man. Hellebuck is out, although they've been
• 4:48
  Speaker 3: using Skinner, who is at least an experienced goalie, although
• 4:52
  Speaker 3: I think he's definitely a big-time step down. Winnipeg's playing
• 4:55
  Speaker 3: a third game in four days. That's not easy to do.
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: It's also a fourth game in six days with travel
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: between all of them and the last three of them
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: all in different cities. That's not easy to do. It
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: is a return home spot, although they were only away Sunday, Monday.
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: And I talk about how it's a distraction a lot
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: of times when a team returns home from the road,
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: got to get back to home life, whatever. In this case,
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: I don't really think so because it was a small
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: road trip, a short road trip, I should say, and
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: they're facing one of the top teams in the league,
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: so they probably do not overlook Colorado. I think this
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: is a divisional matchup as well. But Winnipeg's not as
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: good as their 2-0-1 record would tell you either. They
• 5:35
  Speaker 3: have not faced a difficult schedule so far. As far
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: as Colorado, though, they're a big road favorite here. They
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: haven't lost a game yet. Neither team has lost in regulation.
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: Colorado's just 2-0, and they've faced two kind of mediocre
• 5:49
  Speaker 3: teams so far, I would say. Won both games. They're
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: starting a road trip. They had some days off, though.
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: Sometimes the days off, if you have too many days off,
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: it can hurt your momentum. So that would be possibly
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: an issue with Colorado, that having too many days off
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: might disrupt the momentum that they have from winning those
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: two games. Colorado's about a minus 190 road favorite here.
• 6:09
  Speaker 3: They're very public, 93% of tickets on them, 91% of
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: the cash. So it seems like the market read would
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: be saying to lean Winnipeg here and take them on
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: like a puck line or something as a huge underdog here.
• 6:22
  Speaker 3: I don't have any real disagreement with that. It's really
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: just about the price. You know you're not going to
• 6:29
  Speaker 3: get any value with Colorado, although I don't know if
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: I'd really want to do it because there's no real
• 6:33
  Speaker 3: situational aspect to this that really has me strongly opinionated
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: in the game so that's that game and then if
• 6:40
  Speaker 3: I was going to play any game I would play
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: Edmonton against Anaheim here and I would play Edmonton even
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: though people know they're the better team they're probably going
• 6:48
  Speaker 3: to be the public side here but this is a
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: revenge game Anaheim eliminated Edmonton from the playoffs last year
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: and if anything you remember who ended your season last
• 6:57
  Speaker 3: year you know so Edmonton definitely is going to have
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: this game circled That's the side that I would play
• 7:02
  Speaker 3: in this one. Anaheim's looked good so far. They beat
• 7:04
  Speaker 3: Vegas and Florida, beating us the other day in overtime.
• 7:09
  Speaker 3: Those are good wins. I mean, those are two of
• 7:11
  Speaker 3: the better teams in the league, and Anaheim beat both
• 7:13
  Speaker 3: of them. That's not bad at all. Maybe that'll have
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: Anaheim looking a little bit too good coming into this game.
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: Edmonton does have one loss on their record, and it
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: was not good. It was to Vancouver. Edmonton has not
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: faced a difficult schedule at all so far, so That's
• 7:29
  Speaker 3: my other hesitation with this is that Anaheim is definitely
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: the more battle-tested team so far this year. Edmonton has
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: only played Vancouver and Seattle, and those are not good teams.
• 7:39
  Speaker 3: The money is still indicating on Edmonton, though. They are public,
• 7:43
  Speaker 3: 73% of tickets, 95% of the cash on them, though.
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: They're about minus 130. Like I said, if I was
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: going to play any hockey game today, I would play
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: Edmonton on the money line. They are... I think a
• 7:56
  Speaker 3: revenge spot does actually matter, and that might be enough
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: motivation to get this done. Edmonton is still the better team,
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: as the oddsmakers are telling you. They are favored on
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: the road. They're not going to overlook this game against
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: the team that ended their season last year. Anaheim will
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: get up for this game, too, though. It is still
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: a big game for both teams. I will be skipping that,
• 8:16
  Speaker 3: although I think that is the best... That's the best
• 8:19
  Speaker 3: play on the hockey board, though. WNBA resumes. These are
• 8:23
  Speaker 3: five-game series now, I believe, so the home team remains
• 8:27
  Speaker 3: at home for game two, even though these teams had
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: multiple days off, too, for some reason. I don't know
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: how the scheduling here works, man. New York and Atlanta.
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: Atlanta won game one. This game's on ESPN. This is
• 8:40
  Speaker 3: the eight-seed versus the four-seed, actually, but New York's a
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: competitive team, man. Atlanta won the first game by 10,
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: but if you look at the box score here, it
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: wasn't really what it looked like. It was a close
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: game statistically, man. Atlanta pulled away late, but they did
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: not have a big lead like this until the second half.
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: Both teams shot almost evenly in the game. The rebounds
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: were basically even as well. The big difference here was
• 9:06
  Speaker 3: the turnover margin. The Liberty were minus 8 in turnovers.
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: They committed a ton of turnovers. 21 so if they're
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: able to clean that up I expect this game is
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: going to be a closer game in game two so
• 9:17
  Speaker 3: I do think the zigzag probably works in this game
• 9:21
  Speaker 3: I would be leaning to New York here Atlanta has
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: already dropped from three and a half point favorite to
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: one and a half point favorite though and that worries
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: me I do not like the number here because I
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: believe Atlanta was about a three and a half point
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: favorite in game one right four and a half actually
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: so is there an injury here what's going on here
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: The fact that it's one and a half, I really
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: don't like it. And if there's no injury here on
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: the Atlanta side, then this line is entirely adjusted just
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: to account for the zigzag. That doesn't look good to me.
• 9:52
  Speaker 3: Let me see. It would be Alicia Gray, I guess,
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: would be the one. Yeah, I think that's the reason why.
• 10:00
  Speaker 3: the line has moved. Although, yeah, I mean, she is
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: one of the better players on Atlanta, so yeah, I
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: think that's why the line moved. That might be a
• 10:06
  Speaker 3: little bit of an overreaction, though. I mean, yeah, she's
• 10:09
  Speaker 3: one of their best scorers, but even so, um you
• 10:12
  Speaker 3: know i always talk about the injured player theory like
• 10:14
  Speaker 3: when a player goes down a lot of times the
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: team will step up their game play better without or
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: play better to compensate you know what i mean in
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: that first game without that player so i think the
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: line actually did overreact a little bit like generally i
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: would say the zigzag looks like new york is the
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: right side here as that first game was closer than
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: the final score looked but i don't want to play
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: new york at the um smaller price here is they're
• 10:38
  Speaker 3: only a one and a half point dog now where
• 10:40
  Speaker 3: they would have been a three and a half point
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: dog otherwise which would be a lot better I would
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: say if you want to take New York here I
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: think I'm going to still lean New York though I
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: think the zigzag might trump the injured player theory when
• 10:55
  Speaker 3: it's you know Atlanta's kind of a defensive team so
• 10:57
  Speaker 3: I don't know man like one of their scores going
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: down Shouldn't affect it that much, but then again, that
• 11:03
  Speaker 3: would mean it is an overreaction in the line, though, too.
• 11:06
  Speaker 3: So there's just not numeric value on New York, you
• 11:10
  Speaker 3: know what I mean? So can't do it in that game.
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: And then Vegas is down 0-1 at Golden State here,
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: which is going to be on Peacock and NBC Sports.
• 11:19
  Speaker 3: You guys saw my bracket, which is already dead, but
• 11:21
  Speaker 3: I did have Golden State advancing through this round. Golden
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: State looked good. They won the first game by 11th. Oh,
• 11:28
  Speaker 3: by the way, one other thing I will say is
• 11:30
  Speaker 3: New York is not a good road team. They're like
• 11:31
  Speaker 3: barely above 500 on the road. So they're the worst
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: of the road teams in the two games here today.
• 11:37
  Speaker 3: So that's something that's not great for them. Vegas is
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: a pretty good road team. Golden State also a good
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: home team though. If you look at this box score,
• 11:48
  Speaker 3: the shooting wasn't good in the game. So it's a
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: very defensive game. That is the type of game Golden
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: State wants to play. They want to muddy the game
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: up and play defense so that is their style they
• 11:58
  Speaker 3: were able to do that now they won by 11
• 12:01
  Speaker 3: uh so the zigzag if you just look at the
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: scoreboard would say well you should take Vegas in this
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: game to bounce back here but if you look at
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: the box score I'm not so sure about that because
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: Vegas won the turnover battle in fact uh they were
• 12:14
  Speaker 3: plus eight in turnovers If you're plus 8 in turnovers
• 12:17
  Speaker 3: and you still lose by 11, that's a red flag, dude.
• 12:19
  Speaker 3: That's not a good sign. And you can see here
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: the rebound battle was absolutely dominated by Golden State. I
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: don't even know how that's possible when you're going up
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: against a team that has Asia Wilson. But Golden State
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: won the rebound battle 52-25. Golden State was just completely
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: dominant in the paint in this game. I don't know
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: what else to tell you. That is not a team
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: that I really want to fade coming into game two,
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: even though the zigzag would kind of say that. This
• 12:46
  Speaker 3: was a kind of legitimate win for Golden State here.
• 12:51
  Speaker 3: So I will not be fading Golden State in this one,
• 12:53
  Speaker 3: although the money is saying to do that. 69% of
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: the tickets, 94% of the cash on Vegas. I mean,
• 12:59
  Speaker 3: if they fall down 0-2, they're pretty much dead in
• 13:04
  Speaker 3: a five-game series in the WNBA, but yeah. Vegas is
• 13:10
  Speaker 3: getting the money here. They're a one-and-a-half-point dog here. It's
• 13:12
  Speaker 3: a really low total, by the way, in the 150s,
• 13:15
  Speaker 3: the much lower total of the two games here. It
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: makes sense. Golden State, again, they're going to try to
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: slow the game down again and play a real defensive game.
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: They were able to do it in game one. It worked.
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: They got a lot of rebounds. Again, it's a red
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: flag to me, so I don't really know if I'd
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: want to zigzag this one because it was not a
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: misleading result. The money is saying Vegas... You know, I mean,
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: just based on blind zigzag, I guess maybe that is
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: the right lean here, but I really don't want to
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: do it. I mean, Golden State legitimately dominated that first game,
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: so that's not going to be a play for me
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: or anything like that. Yeah, WNBA board, I really do
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: not like it here. Major League Baseball playoffs, every team
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: is in action here, or every series, I should say,
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: is in action here. As the American League games resume,
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: as they shift to the other venue here, Cleveland to Chicago,
• 14:07
  Speaker 3: easy travel spot there for them. Cleveland facing elimination, not
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: something that I thought would be the case here. Chicago
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: has a chance to advance to the ALCS after the
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: last couple years they were abysmally bad. And this pitching,
• 14:21
  Speaker 3: I don't know where Tanner Bybee is. Is he hurt
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: or something? Because I expected him to be the number
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: three Cleveland starter here, and I have no clue where
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: the hell he is, unless he's going to be pitching
• 14:30
  Speaker 3: after an opener or something. He's not hurt. And where
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: the hell is Foster Griffin? What are we doing here?
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: They got Foster Griffin in that trade so that he
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: would be able to pitch in some of these games
• 14:40
  Speaker 3: that matter, even though he's not an experienced pitcher. I
• 14:44
  Speaker 3: don't know. If I was Cleveland, I would have Bybee
• 14:46
  Speaker 3: in here, though. I mean, he's an experienced pitcher. He's
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: pitched in the playoffs before. That's what I would be doing,
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: but that's not what they're doing, apparently. Cleveland's got Daniel
• 14:55
  Speaker 3: Espino listed as a starter. He's going to be an opener, though,
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: so honestly, I don't really know what Cleveland is going
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: to be doing after he's out of the game. And
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: then Chicago looks like they're kind of going with a
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: bullpen game too with Sean Newcomb on the mound. He's
• 15:10
  Speaker 3: been pretty good for them this year, and I believe
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: he has pretty good numbers against Cleveland. So I think
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: out of the two openers, Newcomb I think is the
• 15:20
  Speaker 3: slightly more experienced pitcher and might be the guy that
• 15:23
  Speaker 3: you want to lean towards here. Yeah, I mean, he's
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: in his 30s. I don't know how much postseason experience
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: he has, though. But I think he has the better
• 15:30
  Speaker 3: matchup numbers, but still, I don't know if there's– If
• 15:33
  Speaker 3: you want to go that much into it, just because
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: these pitchers might not be out there that long. Now,
• 15:37
  Speaker 3: Chicago did use Burke, who is like their best starter.
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: He came in in game two. So Chicago did like
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: a tandem thing in game two where they had K
• 15:48
  Speaker 3: pitch as like the first pitcher out, and then they
• 15:50
  Speaker 3: used Burke after that. Burke was kind of like the
• 15:53
  Speaker 3: bulk workload pitcher in that game. Chicago still has, what's
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: the other guys? Why do I forget everybody's name right now?
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: Chicago has, yeah, Davis Martin. He pitched in game one, though, right?
• 16:09
  Speaker 3: I think Davis Martin, yes, I don't know. I mean,
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: or no, it was a bullpen game in game one, right?
• 16:14
  Speaker 3: I don't even know. Let me look. Because Davis Martin, yeah,
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: Martin is not pitching the playoffs yet. So I think
• 16:20
  Speaker 3: Martin might be the bulk pitcher in this game. He
• 16:25
  Speaker 3: does not have good numbers against Cleveland at all, though.
• 16:28
  Speaker 3: So if we're going to see Davis Martin in here,
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: I don't think that's good. I don't know what Cleveland
• 16:33
  Speaker 3: is doing at all here. I don't know. I mean,
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: I think I would lean over in this game, if anything.
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: The money seems to agree. 57% of tickets on the under,
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: 56% of the cash on the over. It's the highest
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: total on the board at eight. Cleveland's offense is bad.
• 16:49
  Speaker 3: There's no doubt about that. They're the worst offense in
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: the playoff field, but the White Sox, I mean, excuse me,
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: the pitching just doesn't look like it's that good here, man. So,
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: you know me, I don't like the bullpen games either.
• 17:01
  Speaker 3: But having a day off might cool off the offenses
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: a bit and rest the bullpens a bit, so I
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: don't really want to do it, but I still think
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: the over is probably the right approach in this game.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: The AL games today, by the way, are on TBS
• 17:14
  Speaker 3: and TruTV. This game's in the afternoon at 4 p.m.
• 17:19
  Speaker 3: As far as the side is concerned in this game,
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: I have no clue, dude. The money's coming in on
• 17:22
  Speaker 3: Cleveland to stave off elimination. 76% of the tickets are
• 17:26
  Speaker 3: on the White Sox, 80% of the cash on Cleveland.
• 17:30
  Speaker 3: If we're going to see Davis Martin in this game
• 17:32
  Speaker 3: for the White Sox, the way that Cleveland typically hits him,
• 17:35
  Speaker 3: I think Cleveland does have a chance. Given how highly
• 17:40
  Speaker 3: variant a bullpen game like this would be, Cleveland does
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: have a chance here to stave off elimination. Although I
• 17:48
  Speaker 3: thought they were going to win this series because of
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: their better pitching, and I have no idea what they're
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: doing at this point. I mean, they already lost with Messick,
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: who looked... A little bit uncomfortable in his first playoff start,
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: and then they lost with Williams on the mound the
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: other day, even though Williams I think was pretty good.
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: They couldn't even win that game, so I don't know, man.
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: But yes, I think over is the better way to
• 18:07
  Speaker 3: play that. Anaheim and Atlanta, we got the under right yesterday. Now,
• 18:13
  Speaker 3: we have less rested bullpens here, but these bullpens are
• 18:15
  Speaker 3: still pretty good. Atlanta's is obviously the better of the
• 18:18
  Speaker 3: two here. I think Cleveland, by the way, has the
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: better bullpen over the White Sox, just To put that
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: out there, the White Sox have the better offense. In
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: Dodgers and Atlanta, Dodgers have the better offense, although both
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: offenses are pretty good. Atlanta's got the better bullpen. Might
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: come down to the starting pitching here. Of course, the
• 18:34
  Speaker 3: Dodgers took a 2-1 lead yesterday, so Atlanta is now
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: facing elimination here as Atlanta could not win with Chris
• 18:41
  Speaker 3: Sale on the mound. One thing I forgot to mention,
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: by the way, that would have made the under look
• 18:45
  Speaker 3: a little bit less appealing was that Chris Sale has
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: like a 6 ERA in his career in the playoffs.
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: Believe it or not, he has not been a good
• 18:52
  Speaker 3: playoff pitcher, and Yamamoto has been the better of the
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: postseason pitchers there, so that's just something of note. Anyway,
• 19:00
  Speaker 3: this game is going to be Tyler Glasnow is pitching
• 19:03
  Speaker 3: for LA. I mean, he's going to be fresh, and
• 19:06
  Speaker 3: he is one of their better pitchers because he was
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: hurt for a huge chunk of the season again, just
• 19:11
  Speaker 3: like last year. When he did pitch, he had a 3.53 ERA,
• 19:15
  Speaker 3: but his whip was quite good at. 95, so that
• 19:18
  Speaker 3: indicates maybe his ERA should have been a little bit better.
• 19:20
  Speaker 3: He was really good on the road when he did
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: pitch this year, 2.84 road ERA. He was good in
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: his last couple starts in September, so they kind of
• 19:29
  Speaker 3: ramped him up a little bit. He was in somewhat
• 19:32
  Speaker 3: bad form, actually, for a couple starts, but he bounced back,
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: had a couple of really good starts coming into the
• 19:36
  Speaker 3: playoffs here, so that's a decent sign, although one of
• 19:39
  Speaker 3: them was against the awful Giants. Uh, Glasnow has been
• 19:42
  Speaker 3: really good against the Braves in the past. They have
• 19:45
  Speaker 3: 99 at-bats against them. Only a 182 average, 546 OPS,
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: 36-8 strikeout walk ratio. So I do expect him to
• 19:53
  Speaker 3: pitch well here. Tyler Molle getting the start on the
• 19:56
  Speaker 3: other side. It was a good pickup for the Braves
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: at the trade deadline. He was not pitching well for
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: San Francisco at all. But now overall, because he turned
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: his season around and pitched really well with Atlanta, he
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: has a 3.99 ERA, 1.23 whip on the season. He
• 20:13
  Speaker 3: was way better at home, which is probably part of
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: the reason why they're having him pitch at home here. 2.74
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: home ERA. Pitched really well against Philadelphia in the first
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: series of the playoffs here. So he does at least
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: have momentum here. He pitched once in the playoffs here.
• 20:29
  Speaker 3: He only had one bad start since joining the Braves,
• 20:32
  Speaker 3: although that was his last start of the season, which
• 20:36
  Speaker 3: maybe would give you concerns that maybe he was falling
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: out of form, but those concerns probably were alleviated by
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: the fact that he did really well against Philly, although
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: the Dodgers are a better offense than Philly. However, Molly,
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: he's actually good against the Dodgers. He faced them one
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: time this year, and that was when he was on
• 20:52
  Speaker 3: San Francisco, so even when he wasn't pitching well for
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: San Francisco, he still had a seven-inning shutout against the Dodgers.
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: and that was in San Francisco, which it is a
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: pitcher-friendly park in San Francisco. Atlanta's is not quite as pitcher-friendly,
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: but he does do well against the Dodgers for whatever reason.
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: Even when he wasn't pitching well with San Francisco, he
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: still put up a really good start against the Dodgers.
• 21:16
  Speaker 3: They only have a. 208 average against him,. 580 OPS,
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: and 130 at-bats. The only bad number here is the
• 21:22
  Speaker 3: strikeout walk ratio, 25-13 OPS. I think the under is, uh,
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: is the way to play this game again. Um, you're
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: getting seven and a half this time, uh, cause it's
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: not an elite pitching matchup here, but the market read
• 21:36
  Speaker 3: is worrying me. 60% of tickets on the under 61%
• 21:39
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the over money seems to be
• 21:41
  Speaker 3: kind of indicating towards the over here. If you're worried
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: about bullpen usage or anything like that, you could make
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: it a first five under two. Um, You're going to
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: be looking at a three and a half probably in
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: the first five, which you know me, I don't really
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: love that, although I've done it multiple times this year.
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: I still think I might do it full game here, though.
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: Like maybe the starters get you deep enough into this one.
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: The bullpens might be good enough to kind of hang
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: on to it here. Yeah, I mean, I think that's
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: what I would do if I was going to play this. Really,
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: I think if I was going to play any of
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: these baseball games today, I think under in this game
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: makes the most sense at under seven and a half.
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: I think I'm going to have to lay off of it, though.
• 22:19
  Speaker 3: But I think that's the best look in baseball here.
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay at the Yankees as this series shifts to
• 22:25
  Speaker 3: New York. The Yankees facing elimination, but I'm not convinced
• 22:28
  Speaker 3: that they're out, man. I mean, the Yankees have the
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: better pitcher on the mound here in this game. Their
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: pitching rotation is deeper than Tampa Bay's, and there's a
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: reason why the Yankees are favored in this game. I
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: do think Tampa has the better offense, even though that
• 22:41
  Speaker 3: sounds crazy. Yankees without judge. Despite what they looked like
• 22:45
  Speaker 3: in the Red Sox series, this Yankees offense has really
• 22:47
  Speaker 3: struggled here. And in fact, for the first 12 innings
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: of this series, the Yankees didn't even have a hit,
• 22:54
  Speaker 3: which is ridiculous. I don't think that's going to happen
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: here against one of Tampa Bay's somewhat lesser pitchers here, though. Now,
• 23:02
  Speaker 3: an under might be worth considering in this game, too. Like,
• 23:05
  Speaker 3: I lean Yankees in this game mostly, but an under
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: might be in consideration here, too. Because you do have
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: two pitchers that had good seasons here. Both teams had
• 23:13
  Speaker 3: a day off, which might hurt the hitting a little bit. Plus,
• 23:17
  Speaker 3: it's cold up here in the Northeast now. It was
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: in the 40s overnight here in Boston. Maybe it got
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: down to the 30s. This is going to be a
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: 62-degree game here in New York. So definitely an October
• 23:30
  Speaker 3: game here. It'll feel like fall. That can hamper the
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: offense a little bit, even though this is normally a
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: hitter-friendly ballpark here. By the way, the NL games I
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: should have mentioned are on Fox Sports 1. This is
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: an AL game, so it's on TBS True TV. I
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: think the Yankees have a better bullpen here, so that's
• 23:47
  Speaker 3: where I was about to go with that. Nick Martinez
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: is pitching for Tampa Bay. He was pretty good this year, 3.1 ERA, 1.09 whip,
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: and he was really good on the road, 2.38 road ERA.
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: That's not bad. He did not pitch well in his
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: last start against Philly, and he did pitch well against
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: the Yankees in the start before that, although they lost
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: that game. That was because Tampa scored no runs in
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: the game. It was a low-scoring game. Now, Nick Martinez
• 24:14
  Speaker 3: has not pitched since the end of the season. I
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: wouldn't be worried about his experience. He's definitely an experienced pitcher.
• 24:21
  Speaker 3: He's been around for a long time, so don't have
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: to worry about either pitcher lacking experience here. They're both
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: experienced pitchers. The question is, is all this time off
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: going to hurt Martinez? Or might it actually help him
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: because his last start was bad? So sometimes... you know,
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: when you're not pitching particularly well, sometimes having extra time
• 24:39
  Speaker 3: off can actually help you, even though sometimes being off
• 24:43
  Speaker 3: schedule will throw a starting pitcher off. Martinez is okay
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: against the Yankees. In 126 career bats, he sold them
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: to a 254 average, 724 OPS. So those are numbers
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: that are, I would say, average. They're like slightly in
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: favor of Martinez here, but not by much. 30 to
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: 12 strikeout walk ratio there, which is not excellent. The
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: advanced analytics guys still don't like Martinez because he does
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: pitch to contact, and he is the lesser pitcher here,
• 25:13
  Speaker 3: like I said, against Max Freed, who had a 2.8
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: ERA this year,. 99 whip. One concern for Freed is
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: that he wasn't pitching deep into some of his games
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: towards the end of the season. I think they were
• 25:25
  Speaker 3: just keeping him a little bit rested for the playoffs,
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: and he's pitched well in the playoffs so far. He
• 25:30
  Speaker 3: pitched in the wild card series and did well there.
• 25:33
  Speaker 3: He was not as good at home this year, though, 3.42
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: home ERA. Still not awful, though, and I still think
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: he's the better pitcher here, and he's got better numbers
• 25:42
  Speaker 3: in the matchup here. He's really held Tampa Bay down.
• 25:45
  Speaker 3: In 134 at-bats, 25-6 strikeout walk ratio, 179 average allowed,
• 25:50
  Speaker 3: 504 OPS. So he has good numbers here against Tampa Bay.
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: So I think the Yankees are actually the way to
• 25:58
  Speaker 3: look in this game. They're about minus 160, though. It
• 26:02
  Speaker 3: is definitely pricey. Like, you're paying for the name Freed.
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: I think you're also kind of paying because the Yankees
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: are facing elimination here. But they should be motivated. They
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: have the better pitcher on the mound, better of the matchup.
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: I think I prefer their bullpen as well. They have
• 26:16
  Speaker 3: 67% of tickets, 74% of the cash on them. If
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: you're going to play the Yankees, I think you've got
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: to make a minus one run line out of it, though. Um,
• 26:24
  Speaker 3: so I think that might be the better way to
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: play this game. And then I would not disagree with
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: an under in this game either. I think the pitching
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: is generally better than the hitting in this game. Uh,
• 26:33
  Speaker 3: the totals at seven, uh, or you might be able
• 26:36
  Speaker 3: to find a seven and a half somewhere, mostly seven though,
• 26:39
  Speaker 3: but it is juiced to the over. So that's what
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: I was saying. Maybe there is a seven and a
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: half out there somewhere. It'll be juiced to the under,
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: but I think that's the way to look here. Um, uh,
• 26:48
  Speaker 3: on the total 70% of tickets on the over 51%
• 26:49
  Speaker 3: of the cash on the under, uh, Yeah, I lean
• 26:54
  Speaker 3: under in that game. And then Milwaukee-San Diego, they played
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: last night. San Diego's got some bullpen problems right now, man.
• 27:01
  Speaker 3: Mason Miller, I didn't think he was going to pitch
• 27:03
  Speaker 3: last night anyway, and they won the game anyway. So
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: San Diego avoided elimination. They used Michael King in a
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: closing role. They had him pitch the 8th and 9th,
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: even though he started Game 1 of the series last
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: San Diego's bullpen is in trouble right now. Mason Miller,
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: I think he was going to be unavailable yesterday anyway
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: because he threw 40 pitches in game two, and they
• 27:24
  Speaker 3: stupidly tried to get them a two-winning save, which is bad.
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: I don't know why these managers seem to just have...
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: just yeah I don't know managers just throw out like
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: whatever worked during the regular season a lot of times
• 27:39
  Speaker 3: managers just throw that out the window in the playoffs
• 27:41
  Speaker 3: and they mismanage the pitching big time I don't know
• 27:43
  Speaker 3: what they're doing it was like uh Chad Tracy with
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: the Red Sox I have no idea why he didn't
• 27:47
  Speaker 3: leave Tolian Gray in uh for longer than he did
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: it made no sense at all because neither had completed
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: a fifth inning yet, and they both had only allowed
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: one run. So I don't know what we're doing here.
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: San Diego, they're mismanaging their bullpen here. I don't know
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: what they're doing, although last night they kind of had
• 28:06
  Speaker 3: to do that with King because Mason Miller, not only
• 28:09
  Speaker 3: did I think he was going to be unavailable because
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: he threw 40 pitches the game before that, but he
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: was on paternity leave as well. So I think he
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: might be back though. Like, you know what I mean?
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: They're back in the series. They're going to need their
• 28:20
  Speaker 3: clothes are back out there. So, and I'm assuming he's
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: because they're at home. I'm assuming Mason Miller is in
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: San Diego right now. Um, and hopefully his wife gave
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: birth and now he'll be back here for this game. Um,
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: I'm assuming it's his wife unless he's just knocking up
• 28:35
  Speaker 3: random women. Um, So hopefully for San Diego, he will
• 28:39
  Speaker 3: be back for this game. And then Moray Hone was
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: also not available. He was out there in the bullpen
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: last night, but I guess he's injured. So they did
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: not use him yesterday either, and he was unavailable, I
• 28:51
  Speaker 3: think due to some sort of injury. So San Diego,
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: they have some issues right now at the back end
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: of their bullpen, man. Generally, both bullpens here are good. Milwaukee,
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: I think, is the somewhat better offense, but they're a
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: small ball offense, whereas San Diego is a Power offense. However,
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: I don't know that that works as well in a
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: big-time pitching stadium here like San Diego is. Definitely more
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: pitcher-friendly stadium. We do not know who's starting the game
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: for Milwaukee here. So we'd be speculating as far as
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: who the hell they're going to start in this game,
• 29:24
  Speaker 3: which may not be a good thing, although I don't
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: know if that means they're going to try to bump
• 29:27
  Speaker 3: Mizorowski up. I don't think they will. So, to me,
• 29:31
  Speaker 3: it's probably going to be Robert Gasser in this game.
• 29:34
  Speaker 3: That would be my guess, is he's going to pitch
• 29:35
  Speaker 3: this game. He has not pitched in the playoffs yet,
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: so he's had a lot of time off. San Diego
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: only has four at-bats against him, although they are three
• 29:43
  Speaker 3: for four often with a home run from Sheets. So
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: Gasser has not done well against San Diego, but it's
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: a very small sample size. San Diego does appear to
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: be going with Walker Bueller in this game. Casey Mize
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: is actually injured. So another pitcher injury for San Diego.
• 30:00
  Speaker 3: Not that he's been that good. Robbie Ray also was
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: warming up in the bullpen last night, by the way,
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: during that game. But it looks like it will be
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: Walker Bueller. He's the listed starter for San Diego here.
• 30:11
  Speaker 3: At least he has experience, man. That's one thing he's
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: got going for him. But he did not have a
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: great season. 4.63 ERA, 1.35 whip. He was better at home, though.
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: Pitches better in the stadium, although that was still a 4.24 ERA,
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: which is not really that great. Buehler was not pitching
• 30:28
  Speaker 3: well down the stretch particularly. Hasn't pitched in the playoffs yet,
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: but maybe having extra rest will help him a little bit. Buehler,
• 30:36
  Speaker 3: he's okay against the Brewers. They have 39 at-bats against him.
• 30:39
  Speaker 3: They have not hit him for contact. 231 batting average against,
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: but they do have some power hitting against him. 769 OPS,
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: but the Brewers are not a power hitting team, so
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: maybe that's a little bit fluky there. So Bueller may
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: actually pitch okay here. San Diego facing elimination, and Milwaukee
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: might be focused on, you know, like, in their mind,
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: they might be like, well, we're going to have Jacob
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: Mizurowski on the mound for game five, you know what
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: I mean, if we need it, which is true. I
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: think that's what Milwaukee's going to do. They'll have Miz
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: at home in game five if they need to. The
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: money seems to be indicating towards San Diego here. It's
• 31:16
  Speaker 3: a toss-up line. San Diego's a very slight favorite. about
• 31:20
  Speaker 3: minus 115, 62% of tickets, 61% of the cash on Milwaukee,
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: even though we don't even know who's starting for them.
• 31:28
  Speaker 3: Given the state of the bullpen, I think Milwaukee does
• 31:31
  Speaker 3: have a slightly better bullpen here, but yeah, I mean,
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee's the public side with less of the money on them.
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: Public's still going to back Milwaukee, because I think they
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: don't particularly care for Walker Bueller, and they like what
• 31:43
  Speaker 3: Milwaukee did during the regular season, and the fact that
• 31:46
  Speaker 3: they've won both games in the series, but remember... Both
• 31:49
  Speaker 3: games that Milwaukee won were really close. Game one came
• 31:53
  Speaker 3: down to that tie France getting robbed of a home
• 31:56
  Speaker 3: run by hitting that ball off the rafters, and by
• 31:59
  Speaker 3: rule it was in play, so it came down and
• 32:01
  Speaker 3: got caught, and that would have been a two-run home
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: run that would have given San Diego the lead in
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: the ninth inning. And then in the other game, again,
• 32:08
  Speaker 3: it was a manager fuck-up where they overextended Miller and
• 32:12
  Speaker 3: tried to use it for two winnings instead of one,
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: and he blew the game in the ninth inning. um,
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: in game two. So both games are close, man. So
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: San Diego has not been dominated by any means in
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: the series. Uh, they've played well actually in the series.
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: So yeah. Um, I, I think this game is pretty
• 32:32
  Speaker 3: much a toss up here. I would not disagree with
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: an over in this game either at seven and a half.
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'm not, I don't think Bueller will do
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: particularly well here really. And, uh, You know, there are
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: some bullpen question marks here for San Diego and Milwaukee,
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: but I don't even know who's starting for them. So
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: it's not going to be an elite starting pitching matchup here.
• 32:49
  Speaker 3: Last night's game did not go over, though. It landed
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: right on the seven. 80% of tickets, 89% of the
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: cash on the over in this one. This one's more
• 32:59
  Speaker 3: of a seven and a half, whereas last night it
• 33:00
  Speaker 3: was basically a seven for the total there. I don't
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: think I got anything else. I feel like I was
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: going to say something else. I don't know what it
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: would have been, though. Yeah, I mean, no, I think
• 33:14
  Speaker 3: that's it. But, yeah, the market read is saying San
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: Diego in that game. I don't have a whole lot
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: else on that. And like I said, I am not
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: giving out any plays here today. So I do not
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: like this board. Dirty sock. Thanks for hanging out. College football,
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: we have two games here. I like one better than
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: the other. I like this Conference USA game, or they're
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: both Conference USA games, excuse me. I like the first
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: one better, though, which is the CBS Sports game, Jacksonville State,
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: Kennesaw State. The one thing that we know about this
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: game is that this is a revenge game because this
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: is a rematch of the conference championship game last year,
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: and Kennesaw State won that game. And that was actually
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: a revenge game for the regular season where Jacksonville State won.
• 33:57
  Speaker 3: the matchup during the regular season last year. Kennesaw won
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: in a low-scoring, ugly game in the conference championship game.
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: Jacksonville State probably remembers that, and they're probably going to
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: get up for this game. And Jacksonville State is a
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: road favorite here. So the Augsburgers are telling you Jacksonville
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: State is actually the better team. But, you know, I
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: got my question marks with them. Jacksonville State has not
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: faced a difficult schedule so far. In fact, they faced
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: a really easy schedule. And the fact that they're 3-2 is,
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: you know, not great. They lost to North Dakota State,
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: who does look really good this year, though, in their
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: first FBS season. So I'm not going to get on
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: them too much for that. And that was on the
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: road in an unfamiliar environment, although they did get absolutely
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: annihilated there. Their other loss was also on the road
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: at Ohio in four overtimes. So they could have won
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: that game. But that does mean they're 0-2 on the road.
• 34:47
  Speaker 3: So that's something to keep in mind. Jacksonville State has
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: not been a good road team so far. And you're
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: asking them to cover and win by, you're asking them
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: to win by margin here, which I don't really want
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: to do that, even though this is a revenge game.
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: And yes, you remember who ended your season, although both teams,
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: I think, I'm pretty sure both teams were in a
• 35:04
  Speaker 3: bowl last year. So it didn't really end their season.
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: You know what I mean? Like winning the conference in
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: a conference like this is really just for You know,
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: you get the banner and whatever. It's bragging rights. Still, though,
• 35:18
  Speaker 3: there may be some revenge component to this. Now, Kennesaw
• 35:21
  Speaker 3: is at 1-3, but they face a more difficult schedule,
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: and that's kind of why I don't really want to
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: take Jacksonville State here, even though I think the market
• 35:27
  Speaker 3: read is saying to do that. Kennesaw has obviously faced
• 35:31
  Speaker 3: a more difficult schedule. I mean, they face Tennessee, and
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: then their only win is against an FCS team, though,
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: so that is kind of a red flag that their
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: only win is against an FCS team. But they were
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: really competitive in their last game. Both teams played last Saturday,
• 35:44
  Speaker 3: so both teams have the same rest here. Kennesaw was
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: good against Arkansas State in that game. They almost pulled
• 35:50
  Speaker 3: off the upset, which Arkansas State, I believe, was about
• 35:53
  Speaker 3: a touchdown favorite in that game at Arkansas State. So
• 35:56
  Speaker 3: Kennesaw is coming off a big performance as an underdog.
• 35:59
  Speaker 3: You know I talk about that. When a team plays
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: well as an underdog and they almost pull off the upset,
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: I think a lot of times they are flat in
• 36:06
  Speaker 3: the next game. So that's another strike against Kennesaw here.
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: But still, they face a more difficult schedule, though. Tennessee
• 36:13
  Speaker 3: and Arkansas State, I think, are both better than all
• 36:16
  Speaker 3: the teams that Jacksonville State has faced, except for maybe
• 36:18
  Speaker 3: North Dakota State. So, yeah, Kennesaw, the fact they're 1-3
• 36:22
  Speaker 3: is a little misleading, because obviously they were not going
• 36:24
  Speaker 3: to win at Tennessee, you know. And like I always say,
• 36:29
  Speaker 3: these home teams in these... midweek games that are in primetime,
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: the home teams do get up a little bit more
• 36:35
  Speaker 3: for these games. So I'm a little bit more hesitant
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: to fade home teams in games like this. So I'm
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: going to stay off it. I lean Jacksonville State in
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: this one, but I'm going to not do it. They
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: drop from a three and a half point opener down
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: to three, basically. So That's kind of a significant move.
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: I mean, it's on a key number, three and a
• 36:55
  Speaker 3: half and three. I mean, that's a key move, losing
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: the hook on three. But it makes it a better
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: number on Jacksonville State. And the odds are telling you
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: they're the better team by the fact they're laying three
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: on the road here. 58% of tickets are on Kennesaw.
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: I don't understand that. I don't understand why the public
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: would be on a 1-3 team here. That doesn't make
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: sense to me against a 3-2 team because Jacksonville State
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: played in Week 0. That was the North Dakota State game.
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: 76% of the cash on Jacksonville State. So the money
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: back at Jacksonville State there in that one. Money looks
• 37:29
  Speaker 3: very public on the over. I think the real money
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: might be on the under in this game. And we
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: saw how low scoring that conference championship game was last year.
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: The total's low, 49.5, 48.5. I do think these are
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: offenses that I think Jacksonville State does kind of run
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: the ball more than they throw it. And Kennesaw I
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: think is just not that good offensively. So I think
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: that's what we have going on in that game. Maybe
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: the under is in consideration in that game as well.
• 37:56
  Speaker 3: I think the best play out of these two games
• 37:59
  Speaker 3: is to play Jacksonville State, though. I don't like the
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: other game much at all. ESPN2, which is New Mexico
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: State at FIU. Florida, Illinois, our favorite people. Florida International.
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: I call them Florida, Illinois by accident, and everybody makes
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: fun of it like two years ago or whatever. In
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: Pitbull Stadium, by the way, where FIU plays, which I
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: believe is... That's a mixed-use stadium, if I'm not mistaken, right?
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: I forget, is that Pitbull? Dude, I don't even know.
• 38:31
  Speaker 3: It's probably named for the rapper, but is Pitbull Stadium...
• 38:35
  Speaker 3: Is that where the Dolphins play now? I honestly have
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: no idea. It might be. Or maybe it's where University
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: of Miami? I don't know. Do these teams share stadiums?
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: I have no clue. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it is FIU,
• 38:48
  Speaker 3: an FIU campus stadium. I have no fucking clue. But
• 38:51
  Speaker 3: what I will say is the home team, again... Should
• 38:53
  Speaker 3: have a little bit of extra home advantage in an
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: ESPN 2 game, primetime game like this. in the midweek
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: where this game's going to get more eyes on it.
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: Your team is going to get more eyes on you
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: than you normally would. It's a weird travel spot for
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: New Mexico State as well, having to go all the
• 39:11
  Speaker 3: way to Florida. However, they already did that once this year,
• 39:14
  Speaker 3: so it's not as bad for them. New Mexico State
• 39:16
  Speaker 3: did have to start the season at Florida State, and
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: they actually only lost that game by 17. So this
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: New Mexico State team really isn't that bad. They're 0-2
• 39:25
  Speaker 3: on the road, but their road losses were to Florida State,
• 39:28
  Speaker 3: like I said, and they only lost by 17. That's
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: actually a good result for them. And then their other
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: road loss was at Hawaii. I mean, that's not an
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: easy travel spot. Like, what do you expect? So I
• 39:39
  Speaker 3: think their 0-2 road record, you shouldn't read into that
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: too much. New Mexico State had a nice win in
• 39:45
  Speaker 3: primetime last week against Western Kentucky, and I believe New
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: Mexico State has extra rest here. cause I believe FIU
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: played that Saturday and New Mexico state hasn't played for
• 39:54
  Speaker 3: like a week. Let me see. Um, FIU played, um, no,
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: I'm wrong. FIU, FIU played on Saturday. Um, actually, you
• 40:06
  Speaker 3: know what? New Mexico state is on short rest cause
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: they played midweek last week. Yeah, that's what it is.
• 40:11
  Speaker 3: New Mexico state played Thursday last week and everybody saw
• 40:14
  Speaker 3: that game. They blew out Western Kentucky. So now New
• 40:17
  Speaker 3: Mexico state's on short rest. Um, having played on Thursday,
• 40:22
  Speaker 3: whereas FIU hasn't played since that Saturday, and they had
• 40:25
  Speaker 3: an easy win in that one against FCS Long Island.
• 40:29
  Speaker 3: Although FIU has not looked that good so far. I mean,
• 40:31
  Speaker 3: they've not faced a difficult schedule so far. Their toughest
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: game was at, well, I guess at South Florida, although
• 40:38
  Speaker 3: they did actually play well in that game, or South
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: Florida played badly in that game, depending on which way
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: you look at it. FIU actually outgained South Florida in
• 40:46
  Speaker 3: that game. I think South Florida is way worse than
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: people think, though. And then FIU lost a close rivalry
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: game against FAU. But now I think Florida International sets
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: up better in this game, though. They have extra rest.
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: They're coming off a nice tune-up game against Long Island,
• 41:03
  Speaker 3: whereas New Mexico State looked really good in prime time
• 41:06
  Speaker 3: because people saw that, oh, hey, New Mexico State, we
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: remember seeing them last Thursday, and they blew out Western Kentucky.
• 41:12
  Speaker 3: They must be not bad, right? I don't know, man. Again,
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: the travel to Florida doesn't look great here on short rest.
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: They looked good against Western Kentucky. This Western Kentucky team
• 41:23
  Speaker 3: has been pretty awful this year, though, so I'm not
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: going to put that much weight into that. Western Kentucky
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: not good on the defensive side of things. New Mexico
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: State was a lot better than they looked against their rival,
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: New Mexico. I'm still pissed about it because that was
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: a loss on the show, but that was a game
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: where if you look at the stats in that game,
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: it was a lot closer than Then the final score
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: made it look. Now, New Mexico State, they did lose
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: their quarterback earlier this year. So I believe their quarterback
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: actually got injured in the New Mexico game, which was Hedden,
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: and they switched to DeMonte, and he has not done
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: a whole lot since then. But New Mexico State has
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: been running the football well since then. So that's something
• 42:01
  Speaker 3: to keep in mind. This team can run the football,
• 42:04
  Speaker 3: and they can play defense. But even so, I don't
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: know if Hedden is coming back or not. They're QB.
• 42:09
  Speaker 3: It looks like he's active, so... Yeah, it looks like
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: he might be back. He was not doing well in
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: that New Mexico game, though. But it looks like he
• 42:17
  Speaker 3: might be back. So you know what I say? That
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: means it's a reverse injured player spot for New Mexico State.
• 42:22
  Speaker 3: And they might be thinking, hey, we won with our
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: backup quarterback last week. So this is going to be easy.
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: So if Hedden is coming back here for this game,
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: you know what I say, that's going to overvalue that
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: team a little bit. They have to work him back in.
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: The team might get a little bit complacent because they
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: won that game so easily. So I think Florida International
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: is the right side in this game. You have to
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: lay six and a half. If you're going to do
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: what I would get on that before it gets to seven,
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: because it might. They have 64% of tickets, 82% of
• 42:47
  Speaker 3: the cash on them. However... It's tough to lay points
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: like that when it's a low, low total. Both of
• 42:55
  Speaker 3: these games have low totals, so there you go, TV audience.
• 42:59
  Speaker 3: You get some ugly games here, although I know last
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: night's total was low as well, and that total went
• 43:04
  Speaker 3: way over. There was a lot of scoring in last
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: night's game. Not really expected, but yeah, we have two
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: low totals here. This game is at 47.5. The money
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: looks like it's kind of indicating towards the under in
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: this game as well. Makes it more difficult to lay
• 43:17
  Speaker 3: points here. I mean, both of these teams have Had
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: some ugly offense this year, man. So maybe the under
• 43:24
  Speaker 3: is actually a better way to look at this game,
• 43:26
  Speaker 3: but I don't know. I mean, I don't do totals
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: too much here, and I would worry about New Mexico
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: State's short rest scenario and how their defense might perform,
• 43:35
  Speaker 3: even though their defense is not bad for this level
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: of play, at least. And they may actually be the
• 43:42
  Speaker 3: better defense getting points here, so that's something I usually
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: don't want to fade. I usually lean towards the better
• 43:48
  Speaker 3: defense getting points if that is what they are. But
• 43:51
  Speaker 3: I gave you the rundown. I mean, Florida International does
• 43:54
  Speaker 3: have maybe an extra home advantage here and the rest
• 43:57
  Speaker 3: edge here, and the situation looks to set up a
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: little bit better for them. So I think laying the
• 44:03
  Speaker 3: points is still the move in this game. 64% of tickets,
• 44:05
  Speaker 3: 82% of the cash on FIU. And that's it, man.
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: Those are the games today. I'm skipping the entire board today.
• 44:15
  Speaker 3: Like I said, I think the best plays today are
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: the Edmonton Oilers on the money line, under in Braves
• 44:22
  Speaker 3: Dodgers again, and I don't like these college football plays
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: too much, man. I think I like Jacksonville State the
• 44:30
  Speaker 3: best out of the two, but you heard my reservations
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: about it, so yeah, these are games I'm not interested in.
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: I'm not a good board today. I thought I would
• 44:38
  Speaker 3: have one play somewhere, but I'm just not going to
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: do it. I don't skip too many days, but I'm
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: skipping today. That's going to do it. Learn to tote
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: on Twitter. Learn to tote on Instagram. Like, subscribe to
• 44:50
  Speaker 3: this channel here. Comment, hype it up, whatever. Boost this thing.
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: Listen on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreaker. Hopefully we get another
• 44:59
  Speaker 3: weekend bump coming up here for the football content. Obviously,
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: if you subscribe here, you'll get notified when I go live.
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: Sometimes I go live a little bit earlier here in
• 45:09
  Speaker 3: the morning because it's, you know, I broke all these
• 45:11
  Speaker 3: games down last night. So I had like no work
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: to do today to go into this show. But when
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: it's a small board like this, sometimes I'm done handicapping
• 45:21
  Speaker 3: it earlier in the morning than I usually am.
• 45:23
  Speaker 4: So.
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: Sometimes the show's going to start a little bit earlier.
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: I'm not consistent. I apologize. I'm not Dave Smith, man.
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: I can't be the most consistent motherfucker. Covered in Uke
• 45:34
  Speaker 3: is my Uke channel on YouTube. Patreon.com slash LearnToTote if
• 45:37
  Speaker 3: you want to support me that way. LoserCast had a
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: new episode last night that was frustratingly long. I'm sorry.
• 45:44
  Speaker 3: What do you want, man? It gets to be a
• 45:46
  Speaker 3: two-hour show. It's fucking midnight here. These guys are going
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: off on these fucking boring tangents. I'm like, what... What
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: do you want from me, man? I'm looking for something
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: to riff on and be funny about. I can't be
• 45:56
  Speaker 3: funny about whatever the fuck you're talking about. I don't know.
• 45:59
  Speaker 3: They're constantly talking about all these comics. I don't even
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: know what the fuck they are, even though I know
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: a decent amount of stand-up comics. But I don't know, man.
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: Give me something to fucking riff on. We're supposed to
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: be talking about funny stories. Whatever. I'm not going to
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: rant anymore. I think that's it. Peace.
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone.
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: Let somebody answer, let somebody know. You do not have.
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: To lose this round alone. Hold on, hold on, not tonight.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: Not now.
• 46:45
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on. Let me pull you out. That
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: bad luck bites hard, but it don't get the crown.
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on.
• 47:06
  Speaker 3: Stay with me now.
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on.
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: You're still here now.