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Stock Market Noise vs. Real Catalysts: What Actually Moves the Market? · Earn Your Leisure

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  Speaker 3: Stock futures drift higher ahead of Velenski's visit kind of
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: flat now as far as for the day, but this
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: there's some anticipation that that could lead to some level
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: of breakthrough potentially. So what if any will this have
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: on the stock market, I.
• 2:16
  Speaker 4: Think very little as far as the futures market. Expiration
• 2:20
  Speaker 4: was just Friday, so you usually have a twenty five
• 2:23
  Speaker 4: to twenty eight day window to get all your trades done.
• 2:26
  Speaker 4: But there's a hard deadline on which was to cut off,
• 2:28
  Speaker 4: and the fifteenth was that usually after expiration happens the
• 2:32
  Speaker 4: first two days or a little bit flat or slower.
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: Do I think this would be enough of a blockbuster
• 2:40
  Speaker 4: meeting to move the market one way or another.
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  Speaker 2: No.
• 2:43
  Speaker 4: One of the biggest things that I'm going to be
• 2:44
  Speaker 4: talking about on Sunday is to understand what's a real
• 2:48
  Speaker 4: catalyst versus what is noise. Do I think the meeting
• 2:51
  Speaker 4: would be great or tensions ease, Yes, but it's more
• 2:55
  Speaker 4: noise than actual catalyst. So yeah, should drop back to
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: sixty three ninety five at some point this month, But
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  Speaker 4: this meeting won't be the reason why nowhere that close
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  Speaker 4: to it. You know, more noise than catalysts, for sure.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: I'm with you.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: Even when I looked at the question, I thought more
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: so for the future's market than anything. When you're talking
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: about commodities, we obviously being something that's huge that comes
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: from Ukraine.
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  Speaker 2: I think it affects those markets.
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  Speaker 1: I don't see it overall affecting the entire market we've
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: I mean, it feels like there's always some geopolitical tension somewhere,
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  Speaker 1: and so the talks we might see something positive, but
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: I don't expect to see any type of large uptick.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: I think that the big day on our calendar this
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: week is Friday, when Jerome Powell will be speaking.
• 3:43
  Speaker 4: That's going to have way more impact and it's going
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: to send more floods into the market for sure.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Right, a couple of things could happen, right, I mean,
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: it feels like he's not.
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  Speaker 2: Going to succumb to the pressure of the president.
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: But you know, all analysts appointing that there will be
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: a rate cut here in September. It ually started at
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: a quarter point, but now they're talking that potentially it
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: could be half a point, which would send the market
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: up or right at the end verse he could say, hey,
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: things are not going where we expected. Evaluations are out
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: of control, and he says, you know what, we'reou cutting
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: rates at all. And then that mid to late summer
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: pullback that we talked.
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: About, it's still right there to the right in line.
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  Speaker 1: So I circle in Friday as the day I know
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  Speaker 1: he met with Putin last week SYSK.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: Today, I'm waiting for Jerome Powell.
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  Speaker 1: That's the guy that I need, that's a catalyst, that's
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  Speaker 1: the guy I need.
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  Speaker 4: Yes, if they move the market or they don't do
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: anything with the rates, it could have an impact. But
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  Speaker 4: if he decides, like you said, two basis points or
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  Speaker 4: zero point five, Yeah.
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: Will fly to the up side. For sure, We're gonna go.
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: It's gonna be a nice run. It's gonna be a
• 4:57
  Speaker 2: nice run. Yeah.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: I mean I do you think he comes to the
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: pressure or do you feel like he even feels the
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: pressure from the president?
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  Speaker 4: I think he feels it, but I think he knows
• 5:06
  Speaker 4: he can't succumb to it. And it's a great lesson
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: I think all of us can talk about and at
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: a time to a part of our conversation with Tabitha.
• 5:14
  Speaker 4: When being a leader, you can't give into the pressure
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: of the noise, like linear your focus on and I
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: know this week for all of us, it's extreme focus
• 5:23
  Speaker 4: on what the mission is. Mission is to make sure
• 5:26
  Speaker 4: it's the best one that we've ever had at the
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: best fest. No outside noise matters, noise versus catalyst. There
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: can be a lot of noise and conjecture online and
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  Speaker 4: in public spaces, but at the end of the day,
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  Speaker 4: does it really make anyone's lives better?
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: No?
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: So true catalysts, power, speaking, interest, rate, environment, true geopolitical
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: threat Like if that Putin and Trump meeting didn't go well,
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: it would have been some friction in the market. He
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: made sure to roll out the proverbial red carpet to
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: make sure even though he flew that jet over Putin's head,
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: stealth bomber so separate put In chat catalysts versus noise.
• 6:11
  Speaker 4: Catalyst is what's going to have impact on the market
• 6:13
  Speaker 4: in your life, not the noise at all.
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm happy either way.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: If we have a little pullback here, great, we got
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: reserves ready to go. And if we're going on this
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: bull run that goes through September, and some people might
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: say maybe it's been baked in already, we'll see, but yeah,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be important.
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: The more importantly, just hold your money in the market.
• 6:32
  Speaker 4: Stop looking for every little palpitation in the market to
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: determine if you're going to get in and out. The
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: real game is to just hold forever. Just hold, You'll
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: be fine.
• 6:43
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