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Japan's Economy just sent a HUGE WARNING to The Rest of the World! | Simply SatoSHE · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  The monetary system is collapsing, and Japan might just
• 0:03
  be our crystal ball showing us what's about to spread to the
• 0:07
  rest of the world. The system is cracking as we
• 0:10
  speak, but this time it might not take a whole decade for
• 0:13
  everything to shift. If you've been holding Bitcoin
• 0:21
  for a while now, you know that this cycle has been a complete
• 0:24
  anomaly. All previous models have been
• 0:26
  broken, and time seems to be but a construct in this strange
• 0:30
  simulation where everything happens in a sequence of events
• 0:33
  we never imagined. Not only are Japan's high yields
• 0:36
  a signal for what's to come, a congressman just announced that
• 0:40
  he's buying Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley is selling $100
• 0:43
  million in Bitcoin ETF's to their ultra wealthy clients.
• 0:47
  City says the liquidity crunch is over.
• 0:50
  It's all so unexplainable when you relate it to the price.
• 0:53
  So what's really going on? Either they know something we
• 0:57
  don't, or they're starting to realize what we've known all
• 1:01
  along and need us to pump their bags.
• 1:04
  Well, it looks like a debt bomb just went off in Japan.
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  Population with 126 million, public debt to GDP ratio of
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  295%. Their bond yields are surging at
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  levels not seen since the.com and the GFC.
• 1:16
  Is there any surprise that they're talking about getting
• 1:18
  ready for stimulus? Not at all.
• 1:19
  Is this the first domino to drop out of many to come?
• 1:22
  We're going to find out. Everyone's heard the saying
• 1:24
  Japan is living 10 years in the future, but I had no idea that
• 1:27
  that also included the economy. Japan's high yield bond started
• 1:31
  breaking the Internet this week, and like any normie, I didn't
• 1:35
  really get why it was so relevant.
• 1:36
  But then Opti actually let me know Japan's economy is the
• 1:42
  model for the future of the US economy, and that's when I
• 1:45
  locked in. I felt like that's So Raven
• 1:48
  staring straight into America's future.
• 1:57
  And unfortunately, it's not looking very bright unless
• 2:00
  you're holding the hardest asset in the world.
• 2:02
  Because here's the thing, Japan already lived through the
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  structural problems the US is now accelerating into.
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  And remember when I said that time was but a construct?
• 2:12
  Well, when people say Japan is a decade ahead, the future might
• 2:16
  actually be closer than it appears.
• 2:18
  Here are the receipts and pay some close attention to the
• 2:21
  dates 'cause this is more accurate than astrology.
• 2:23
  Japan's bubble burst in 1991. About 10 years later, the US had
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  its own massive crash the.com bubble in 2001.
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  Different triggers, same outcome, collapsing markets,
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  emergency rate cuts, and the start of America's long slide
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  into permanent intervention. Japan launched quantitative
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  easing, also known as the money printer, in 2001.
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  Fun fact, they literally invented it.
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  Then the US copied QE in 2008. When Japan hit zero interest
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  rates in 1999, the US hit zero in 2008 and again in 2020.
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  Japan crossed 100% debt to GDP in 2000. the US crossed that
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  same line in 2013 and blew past 120% after 2020.
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  And finally, what is to me the most interesting economic
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  correlation here, Japan's population started shrinking in
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  2008. Then the US saw its first native
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  born population decline in 2020, and you would think people would
• 3:24
  be having more babies in 2020. But no, that was the decline.
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  Japan experienced all of this first, and now the US may be
• 3:32
  moving through it way faster. So when Japan suddenly loses
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  control of the very long term yields, it's kept pinned down
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  for decades. That's not a Japan problem.
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  That's a preview of what happens when a Fiat system hits its
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  structural limits. And if they couldn't hold the
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  line with every advantage, the US, with higher deficits,
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  political chaos and global reserve burden, is in an even
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  tighter spot. Japan was the model, but it
• 3:58
  turns out they're actually the warning sign.
• 4:01
  You're seeing in Japan 10 year yields in Japan are at the
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  highest levels in you know, a long time and yeah, sorry, long
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  time and and the yen is weakening markedly, which is
• 4:12
  when your yields are rising and your currency still weakening.
• 4:14
  That's like emerging market type of action, which is very
• 4:17
  important because if for the last five plus years, if you
• 4:20
  want to know where the 10 year Treasury yield is going to be in
• 4:24
  anywhere from a few weeks to a month or two, just look at the
• 4:27
  direction of travel of the 10 year JGB.
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  And the reason that is, is those are the two biggest carry trades
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  funding currencies in the world going back 30 years.
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  After 89, the yen became a carry trade.
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  And then after Bernanke in 2008, the dollar became a current
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  carry trade. And we saw in summer 2024 that
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  anytime the yen gets too strong, the carry trade blows up.
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  And anytime the yen gets too weak, dollar gets too strong,
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  the dollar trade, carry trade blows up.
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  So you're sort of between Cilla and Karibdis on that front with
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  Cilla starting to get a little mouthy in terms of the Japanese
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  10 year bond. Yields.
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  And here's where the whole thing gets even crazier.
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  Because it's not just that the US repeated Japan's past, it's
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  that the US is repeating what Japan did a decade ago right
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  now. Remember Abenomics?
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  Japan went all in on massive government spending.
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  Well, we've got the big, beautiful bill ramping spending
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  into OverDrive. Japan forced interest rates
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  down. We've already cut this year
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  twice, September and October, and they're already whispering
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  about a December cut. Japan flooded its system with
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  liquidity. And what did City tell us last
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  week? The liquidity crunches over your
• 5:38
  note, Dirk, correct me if I have this wrong.
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  What? You know, we're trying to find
• 5:41
  explanations for what's going on with Bitcoin.
• 5:43
  Were you putting that on tightening liquidity?
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  That is one of the explanations. There are a couple of things
• 5:49
  going on in in Bitcoin that are interesting.
• 5:52
  First there was a flash crash in early October and that you know
• 5:56
  for Bitcoin itself, it was a 14% move down over 2 days.
• 6:00
  Maybe not not that drastic, but some of the old coins really got
• 6:04
  got sold much, much harder. And after this flash crash, we
• 6:08
  saw that the flows into the Bitcoin ETFs and so forth really
• 6:14
  changed. So the flows we never recovered
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  and so retail was apparently some hotel shocked by that day
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  and and we saw outflows. The other thing that happened is
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  that I think a lot of the institutional investors trade
• 6:28
  Bitcoin with a bit of a trend following mindset.
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  And so we broke some of the moving averages that they tend
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  to look at and that is also reducing the source of demand.
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  But the Third Point is what you were mentioning, and that is
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  that the liquidity which we measure by bank reserves on the
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  Fed balance sheet dropped by more than 500 billion.
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  And that happened because the Treasury increased the Treasury
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  general account at the Fed by sending a lot of T-bills.
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  And there were two reasons for that.
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  One is why this TJA account was so high. 1 is that that during
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  the government shutdown, the Treasury didn't spend as much.
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  So, so that account rose mechanically on the back of
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  that. But secondly, they did sell more
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  T-bills than is typical. And so we are thinking going
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  forward the liquidity squeeze. So that explanation for the
• 7:20
  Bitcoin weakness should actually get much better because we
• 7:22
  expect TGA to at the very least flatten out and probably
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  decline, meaning bank reserves and liquidity should improve
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  between now and the end, partly because of the reopening and
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  partly because the Treasury sold so many TPS already.
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  Yeah, because we're opening the monetary floodgates, too.
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  Japan weakened the yen to stimulate growth.
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  Meanwhile, the dollar softening exactly as the Fed shifts from
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  strong currency to Please, dear God, don't break the credit
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  markets. Look at the US today.
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  ETF dominates flows, the Fed backstops everything, and
• 7:56
  Bitcoin ETFs are soaking up every retail dollar they can
• 8:00
  find. So when people say Japan is
• 8:02
  about 10 years ahead, yeah, the future might be closer than it
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  appears. Because everything Japan
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  experimented with 10 years ago, we're living through today.
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  What might be different now, however, is that those who lived
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  through every single one of those cycles, the boomers in
• 8:20
  suits, they see it too. We're going into a lower rate,
• 8:24
  high fiscal stimulus environment with high fiscal deficits, and
• 8:27
  people don't think bitcoins going to go up.
• 8:29
  Like, yeah, it's scary and annoying to some people with a
• 8:33
  short attention span that Bitcoin has not behaved exactly
• 8:36
  as people expected at the bottom of the cycle.
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  But everything's changed with the ETF and with the Treasury
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  companies, right? And the current liquidity
• 8:43
  backdrop and the macro. So we just are in an elongated
• 8:46
  cycle. So we may still see parabolic
• 8:48
  price movement, the cycle. It just may not happen until
• 8:51
  3456 months from now or even this time next year.
• 8:54
  I see a scenario where this bull market, if you overlay with the
• 8:58
  AI CapEx spend cycle, which I'm extremely bullish on, there's a
• 9:01
  lot of every six months they turn bearish on this and then
• 9:04
  they bounce right back as AI is a 20 year theme, it's sort of
• 9:06
  like being bearish on the Internet.
• 9:08
  There were people who were bearish on the Internet for the
• 9:09
  last 25 years, but they all made less money than people who are
• 9:12
  long, long Bitcoin, long AI, easiest trades of your lifetime.
• 9:16
  You just hold them in large size for a decade.
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  And we're at year two or three of a major uptick in AI CapEx.
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  You're not going to see a huge recession with the biggest
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  companies, the largest companies in human history with the
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  highest cash flow, pouring money into AI.
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  And remember, AI overlaps with Bitcoin both in terms of agents,
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  AI agents wanting to use some sort of algorithmic asset, and
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  also in terms of the energy layer.
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  AI and Bitcoin are competing for power at the data center level.
• 9:45
  So if AI is can continue to RIP, and I think it will, then
• 9:49
  Bitcoin's going to struggle to go down for very long.
• 9:51
  It can go down for a few more weeks or something, but it's
• 9:53
  probably not going to stay down that long.
• 9:54
  So once you see the macro rhyming Japan, then the US, now
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  the next thing you notice, this is how the insiders are
• 10:01
  behaving. A sitting congressman is
• 10:03
  publicly stacking Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley is moving over
• 10:07
  $100 million worth of their Bitcoin ETFs to ultra wealthy
• 10:11
  clients. City is signaling the end of the
• 10:14
  liquidity crunch. Those aren't TikTok traders.
• 10:16
  Those aren't Reddit degenerates. Those are people closest to the
• 10:20
  plumbing, the ones that see the cracks before retail even
• 10:24
  notices the noise. Some even take notes from the
• 10:27
  greatest trader of all time, my girl Nancy, and they only move
• 10:32
  early when a shift is coming or they need someone to pump their
• 10:36
  bags on the next leg. And the truth is, both can be
• 10:39
  true at the same time. This thing is, you can't kill
• 10:42
  it. Who can't?
• 10:44
  And the late Charlie Munger, who was so brilliant on so many
• 10:49
  things, was blind to this. Now you can say, wait a second,
• 10:52
  maybe it's all going to come on. Diamond has.
• 10:55
  Has not. Spared any negative words.
• 10:58
  No, but look, I mean, it's a reality and it's a technological
• 11:03
  marvel. And I think people have to start
• 11:05
  recognizing that it it it's here to stay.
• 11:09
  The SEC has been against it almost the whole time.
• 11:11
  Yeah. Now, that doesn't mean that
• 11:13
  every one of these is here to stay, but I do think that it's
• 11:16
  about this is a remarkable comeback that was unexpected and
• 11:21
  except for for all the Bulls who turn out to be.
• 11:23
  Right, the same institutions making the quiet moves are also
• 11:26
  the ones getting the loudest on CNBC.
• 11:28
  I look at it as a vehicle in which you're expressing your
• 11:32
  your financial acumen in something that you're more
• 11:34
  frightened of the world, you're more frightened of your
• 11:37
  existence. And I believe there's a great
• 11:39
  industrial use for it. And I, and I think a lot of
• 11:41
  people are missing that. I couldn't agree more.
• 11:44
  I changed my mind about what you did.
• 11:46
  You admit my thinking. It was like, I don't believe in
• 11:49
  it so I can't believe it. I want to thank Larry Fink from
• 11:51
  the message of Optimism. Thanks and also for a great
• 11:54
  quarter. Larry Fink is the Co founder,
• 11:55
  chairman and CEO of Black Rock, I think the most important
• 11:59
  investment company. In the world, every bitcoiner
• 12:02
  gets the ick when Wall Street starts talking bullish.
• 12:07
  How do you do, fellow kids? What?
• 12:09
  I swear the reverse Kramer effect used to be funny, but now
• 12:13
  I'm tired. On Bitcoin, that's a winner.
• 12:16
  And that lane jumpers conclusion of the lagging round.
• 12:19
  It honestly feels like a curse. The moment the suits start
• 12:23
  praising Bitcoin publicly, the price stumps.
• 12:26
  It's like when you were a teenager and your parents
• 12:28
  suddenly thought something you were doing was cool and then you
• 12:31
  immediately wanted to stop doing that thing.
• 12:34
  Well, I'm starting to feel that way here, especially because
• 12:37
  these people used to call us the degenerate low lives of the
• 12:40
  financial world. I've always been deeply opposed
• 12:43
  to crypto, Bitcoin, etcetera. You pointed out doing a true use
• 12:47
  case for it as criminals, drug traffickers, anti money
• 12:50
  learning, tax avoidance and that is a use case because it is
• 12:54
  somewhat anonymous, not fully and because you can move money
• 12:57
  instantaneously and because it doesn't go through as you
• 13:00
  mentioned, all these systems have built up over many years.
• 13:03
  Know your customers sanctions OFAC it's didn't get bypassed
• 13:07
  all of that. I If I was the government's, I'd
• 13:09
  close it down. OK, but here's the uncomfortable
• 13:11
  truth. Bitcoin is also for enemies, and
• 13:14
  if it's going to become a global monetary standard, it has to be
• 13:17
  big enough for people that we don't trust.
• 13:20
  That's the tension. We obviously know, and they
• 13:23
  probably know that you can't build a monetary revolution on
• 13:26
  ETFs alone. ETFs don't change the world or
• 13:29
  build the future of finance as we know it.
• 13:32
  Adoption does. They need retail to adopt the
• 13:35
  asset, even if it's their BS paper Bitcoin so that their
• 13:39
  positions can actually appreciate.
• 13:42
  So when they talk big on TV, it's not about orange peeling
• 13:46
  you out of love. It's about building liquidity.
• 13:49
  Your liquidity, to be specific. But here's the other part of
• 13:52
  that that ties back to Japan. These boomers, these
• 13:55
  institutions, they've lived through every single warning
• 13:59
  sign Japan showed us. They lived the.com crash, they
• 14:02
  lived the 2008 crisis, they lived QE, they lived dead
• 14:06
  explosion. They lived demographic decline.
• 14:09
  They felt those shocks in real time.
• 14:12
  Some of these people don't even have grandchildren at this
• 14:16
  point. Just saying.
• 14:17
  So maybe, maybe be this time, it's not just about bumping
• 14:23
  their bags. Maybe they're finally seeing the
• 14:26
  same future Japan has been screaming about, and they're
• 14:29
  trying to make sure that the system somehow survives the next
• 14:33
  decade. Doubt it.
• 14:34
  But that's why you don't listen to the hype.
• 14:36
  You watch the flows. And the flows are moving in even
• 14:39
  when the price is chopping sideways.
• 14:41
  And if the boomers are preparing for the next decade, then
• 14:44
  stacking straight from the source might be the smartest
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• 15:48
  Let's get back to the show. If you go back to 2018 and the
• 15:52
  Bitcoin community, if you said the word you said Larry Fink,
• 15:55
  people go, they would say, oh, Larry Fink doesn't like us.
• 15:59
  And in the year 2024, Larry Fink goes on television and speaks to
• 16:05
  leaders in the world and says Bitcoin is a store of value.
• 16:08
  It it protects the sovereignty of the individual.
• 16:11
  It allows, it allows you to achieve your hopes.
• 16:14
  It is hope, Larry Fink has said. Bitcoin is hope.
• 16:18
  Now, what does that? What does that say to me?
• 16:22
  It says we don't have enemies. What we have are people that
• 16:28
  need Bitcoin that don't yet know why they should be our friend.
• 16:41
  When someone goes on television and they're asked what do you
• 16:44
  think about Bitcoin, and they get poked and they're a little
• 16:46
  bit irritated, they got to ask the question.
• 16:50
  And they're not an enemy of Bitcoin.
• 16:51
  They're just not prepared for the question.
• 16:54
  And in fact, over time, the journalist will do the poking
• 16:58
  because they know the most important thing in the world
• 17:01
  today is Bitcoin. And you're going to have a group
• 17:04
  of people that understand it, that will say it's the future.
• 17:08
  And you'll have a group of people that don't understand it
• 17:11
  and they will not have embraced it.
• 17:12
  But it at the end of the day, with time, with education, we're
• 17:16
  going to we're going to see more and more people join the network
• 17:21
  and they're going to participate.
• 17:22
  Here's the twist. Even if you don't trust the
• 17:24
  institutions, and honestly, why would you, I don't.
• 17:27
  They're not wrong about Fiat. They know that the system is
• 17:30
  dying. They know debt spirals don't
• 17:33
  reverse. They know bond markets
• 17:36
  eventually revolt. They know you can't print
• 17:38
  prosperity, only delay the collapse.
• 17:41
  They're not warning you. They're positioning ahead of
• 17:44
  you. You want monetary freedom, They
• 17:46
  want control over the next monetary standard.
• 17:50
  And the only way to front run them, or as Nico likes to say,
• 17:53
  Frant Rand, is to own the asset that they can't manipulate,
• 17:57
  can't print, can't freeze and can't rehypothecate real
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• 18:58
  Now let's wrap up the show. So the price is choppy.
• 19:03
  Narratives are all over the place, but the signals are
• 19:06
  screaming. Japan just flashed a warning,
• 19:10
  the US is next in line, institutions are repositioning,
• 19:14
  Fiat cracks are widening, and you only get one chance to exit
• 19:18
  the system before it tries to exit you.
• 19:20
  Bitcoiners didn't break the system.
• 19:22
  We just built the way out and the exit is still open for now.
• 19:26
  Comment below if you think the institutions are frant ranting
• 19:30
  the collapse or setting up retail.
• 19:32
  Are you stacking real Bitcoin or just watching them buy it?
• 19:36
  If you enjoyed the show, please give it a like and consider
• 19:39
  subscribing to our channel. Turn on the notification bell
• 19:42
  for the most fire Bitcoin only content and as always, stack.
• 19:47
  Slay and stay bullish, baby.