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Jun 17 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260617 Market Overview and Commodity Trends The June 17, 2026, broadcast of the Closing Market Report, hosted by Todd Gleason, provides a comprehensive update on agricultural markets, policy news, and global weather conditions. In the commodities segment, Greg Johnson of Total Grain Marketing details a recent market sell-off driven by favorable Midwest weather, expectations of higher planted acreage, and declining oil prices linked to a Middle East memorandum of understanding (MOU). This combination of factors has prompted investment funds to liquidate their long positions in corn and pare back on soybeans. Johnson advises farmers to adjust their pricing expectations, noting that a significant rally would require a major weather event later in the summer or a return of Chinese soybean purchases. Agricultural Policy and Global Finance The program also covers recent geopolitical and agricultural news, highlighting President Donald Trump’s cautious public remarks regarding the finalization of the Middle East MOU, despite White House officials confirming its digital signing. Domestically, the broadcast outlines a legislative push in the Senate to permanently lift summertime restrictions on E-15 ethanol and reports on a growing New World screwworm outbreak threatening livestock in Texas. On the financial front, the US Farm Credit System remains stable despite broader economic challenges, presenting a stark contrast to Brazil, where lower grain prices and high interest rates are driving a surge in farm bankruptcies and loan defaults. Global Weather Impacts Meteorologist Drew Lerner from World Weather, Inc. concludes the report with a global agricultural weather outlook. In the United States, unusually cool temperatures and excessive moisture are slowing crop development across the Midwest and Northern Plains, though warmer weather is expected by July. In Europe, a severe heatwave and prolonged dry spell are heavily stressing winter crops, particularly in France. Looking toward Asia, a strengthening El Niño is forecast to bring significant dryness to Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines later in the year, while simultaneously causing excessive, crop-damaging rainfall across the rice and sugarcane regions of southern China. 01:18 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing 09:12 President Trump Hedges on MOU Signing 15:16 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. --- Todd Gleason: From the Land Grant University in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the Closing Market Report. It is the 17th day of June 2026. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason. Coming up, we will talk about the commodity markets with Greg Johnson from TGM, that is Total Grain Marketing. We will hear from President Donald Trump, who this morning hedged just a little bit as it relates to the signing of the MOU with Iran. Then we will turn our attention to the weather forecast. Drew Lerner will be here from World Weather, Inc. on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media. announce: Todd Gleason’s services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. July corn for the day settled at $4.21, up 7 and 1/4. September at $4.29 and 1/2, 7 higher, and December 6 and 1/4 higher. Settlement price there at $4.48 and 3/4. July beans $11.32, up 2. August $11.36 and 3/4, 2 higher, and November soybeans $11.49 and 1/4, up 2 and 3/4. Bean meal unchanged on the day. Bean oil down $1.38. Wheat futures up 16 and 3/4 in the soft red July at $6.12 and 3/4. The hard red July at $6.53 and 1/2, 18 and 3/4 higher. 01:18 Ag Markets with Greg Johnson, Total Grain Marketing Todd Gleason: Greg Johnson from TGM, that’s Total Grain Marketing, the elevator right here in Champaign County, now joins us to take a look at the marketplace. Hello Greg, thanks for being with us. I hope you had some great time off. Greg Johnson: I had an excellent time. I am glad to be back, though. Todd Gleason: I bet you are, and you walked right into the buzzsaw again. The markets are always moving. You missed a couple of weeks that were really interesting. I suppose you watched from afar. What did you think of those last two weeks? Greg Johnson: We had rain across most of the Midwest, so the crops are developing at an average pace. It looks like we are off to a decent start. The weather in July and August will tell the tale, but there is nothing bullish from the weather concerns at this point. With more rain in the forecast this week, next week, and the following week, it is not likely that traders get excited about weather prospects for a rally just quite yet. That will happen in July and August if it is going to happen at all. We go back to trading other things besides weather. We have an acreage report out on June 30th, and one of the private analysts has increased his estimate for acres of corn, beans, cotton, and wheat. We are going to plant more of everything than the government intended in the March estimates. That is not friendly either. We have the memo of understanding for a potential agreement in the Middle East, so oil prices are going down, which is pressuring ethanol, which is pressuring corn. All those things taken together have got the funds, which were extremely long, selling off. When the numbers come out on Friday, it will likely show that the funds have liquidated their entire long position of corn. They are still long soybeans and soybean oil, but they dramatically pared that back. The bottom line is the funds have been big sellers of commodities—not just ags, but energies and metals as well. It has been a complete sell-off in the commodity groups. We have seen corn drop 70 cents from when I left to when I got back, and we gained 10 cents of that back here just in the last few days. Beans lost $1.20, and they have gained back about 15 to 20 cents. We have a lot of repair work to do. We have done a lot of damage to the charts. Until we get something fundamentally friendly, I am not sure what will cause the funds to come back in and buy. We may be sideways to slightly higher here over the next week or two until we get some more fundamental news. Todd Gleason: The listeners will approve that you do not go on vacation or away from the office again for some time. Greg Johnson: I have been told by several producers that I can never go on vacation again. Todd Gleason: When they ask that question, what they really want to know is, “I have whatever I’ve got sold, but certainly 70 cents higher would be better.” Now the problem is I am looking at a good crop. What kind of bounce can I expect, and how do things play out through the fall? Clearly, you are thinking sideways to maybe higher. If they are far enough behind on their marketing, do they still need to look at pricing something out, or are you confident that we can manage through some of this and look for a higher price later? Greg Johnson: I think we have to lower our expectations to more realistic levels. I do not know that we can expect the funds to establish as long of positions as they did a month or two ago. After a 70-cent loss, maybe we can gain 25% to 35% of that back. That would be a third to a half of what we lost in corn. For soybeans, if we lost $1.20, maybe we can gain back 45 to 60 cents of that. That is typical technical trading strategy; whatever we lose, we try to retrace a third. Under the right circumstances, maybe we can retrace half. Those are the objectives depending on where farmers are sold, but certainly that first level I would encourage people to put offers in is a one-third retracement of what we lost. Todd Gleason: As you are thinking about soybeans, what kind of expectations do you have? Greg Johnson: On new crop—most of the old crop beans are already sold, so let’s talk new crop—November beans lost 80 cents. They went from $12.10 down to $11.30. They are trading around $11.50 today. We gained back 20 of the 80, and I think we could gain back another 30; that would be 50 cents of that 80-cent move. Roughly half. So $11.80, $11.90, somewhere in there. I do not know that we need to see $12 beans, especially if that acreage report comes out with more bean acres. It is going to take a weather problem. With beans, we may not see a weather problem until August. For corn, July will be critical for the pollination period, but beans can hold off a little longer. To see a substantial rally in beans, it may take until August. Todd Gleason: Has there been any indication that the Chinese have actually come in and made purchases? Greg Johnson: No. There have been rumors the last several days, but I think those are based on the fact that the soybean basis in Brazil has increased to the point where our US beans are now competitive without the tariff. If the 10% tariff is still on, that makes our beans more expensive. Commercial Chinese companies will still buy beans from Brazil. The government could buy the beans from the US without the tariff. We are getting close, but I do not think China has kicked the tires yet. I do not think we have any definite reason to believe they are buying beans. They are still buying from South America because those beans are slightly cheaper. With the higher basis levels down there, we are more competitive, but nothing has been done officially yet. Todd Gleason: Is domestic consumption in the United States for new crop enough to maintain levels where we are today? Greg Johnson: Probably. The farmers are going to be tight holders of beans, and with requirements for mandatory renewable biodiesel, these crush plants are going to need soybeans. The board is going to have to go up, or the basis is going to have to go up to encourage those beans to move. That will still not be enough; we still need to export a decent amount of beans. We really need China to come back in and start buying beans at some point in time. That is the only thing that would get us out of these doldrums. Todd Gleason: Thank you very much, I appreciate it. Greg Johnson: Thanks, Todd. announce: Greg Johnson is with TGM, Total Grain Marketing.com, at the elevator here in Champaign County. Speaking of Champaign County, next Thursday, if you are in the area, you should come out to the South Farms for the University of Illinois Weed Science Field Day with Aaron Hager. Details are online at willag.org. 09:12 President Trump Hedges on MOU Signing announce: This morning, US President Donald Trump held a press conference during which he was asked how confident he might be that the MOU signing ceremony will take place this Friday in Switzerland. He demurred, and the price of crude oil jumped $3 a barrel for a few minutes before dropping back down. Here is the exchange, and the President’s answer. announce: [Reporter] How confident are you that this Friday signing will happen? Donald Trump: You’re talking about the deal? announce: [Reporter] Yes. Donald Trump: Deals are amazing. I have done them all my life. I have gone into deals that were 100% and they do not happen. I have gone into deals where there was no chance of getting them done, and it happens easily. You never know with deals, but you are going to find out pretty soon. I think it will be done. They want to sign; they want to get back to a normal life. We hit them very hard. Do not forget, people talk about when this started. This did not start three or four months ago. This started years ago when I took out Soleimani. That was a big event. There are those who say it was the biggest event in the Middle East in 50 years. We took him out, and they became a much different country. Then I terminated the JCPOA, Barack Hussein Obama’s horrible deal that gave them a nuclear weapon. I terminated it and stopped it. Then I stopped it a second time with the B–2 bombers. These are all major events in the history of the world, in my opinion, because it prevented them from having a nuclear weapon. Now we are going to do it again, and we are going to see how it works out. This is a memorandum of understanding, but it is a very strong one. This is not just a two-paragraph document; this is a long, detailed memorandum that goes into a regular contract. I would think they would do it. If they don’t, that is okay, we start the process again. We do not lose. We have the greatest military in the world. We had the greatest naval blockade; it was 100% effective. Again, they have no navy, they have no air force—all bombed out. I do not want to say the leaders, but the first level of leader, gone. Second level of leaders, gone. Some of the third level of leaders, gone. They want to make a deal. They are so ready to make a deal. announce: That was President Donald Trump from this morning in the press conference. He muddied the waters related to any deal with Iran. However, White House officials have confirmed President Trump, Vice President Vance, and the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament digitally signed the MOU last Sunday. Todd Gleason: In today’s agricultural news, it may be that a years-long campaign for higher ethanol fuel is facing a now-or-never moment in the Senate. Chuck Grassley from Iowa gave that stark scenario for E–15, the gasoline blend that is 15% corn-based ethanol. In a conference call with reporters, the lawmaker searched for a legislative path to lift summertime restrictions on its sale. The opportunities are narrowing for Grassley and other E–15 advocates, who say they are on the cusp of the long-sought goal. Officials in Texas are expanding efforts to contain an outbreak of the New World screwworm. Texas state animal health authorities confirmed 11 cases involving cattle and other livestock. The total number of cases is up to 12, including the confirmed case in New Mexico. The growing number of cases has raised concerns among ranchers in Texas that the parasitic fly could spread further north into major cattle-producing regions. Producers say the outbreak is especially troubling as confirmed cases move closer to the Dallas area. The Farm Credit System remains financially strong, despite growing stress in parts of the farm economy. According to the Farm Credit Administration Board, as of March 31st, the system reported stable earnings and increased capital levels. Total capital reached $86.4 billion, up 7.3% from last year. That leaves the nation’s largest agricultural lender well-positioned to meet the borrowing needs of farmers and ranchers across the United States. The report also noted growing economic challenges, including higher energy costs and inflation tied to the conflict in the Middle East. Despite expectations for lower net farm income in 2026, farm finances continued to benefit from federal support programs in the United States. Elsewhere across the planet, farmers are not faring quite as well. This is the case in Brazil, where financial stress is mounting in the farm sector as auctions of creditor-seized farmland continue to climb. According to data compiled by Reuters, rising debt troubles are forcing farmers in Brazil into bankruptcy and loan defaults. Lower grain prices, higher interest rates, rising input costs, and weather-related crop losses have combined to squeeze farm profitability across the country. Problem loans now account for nearly 20% of outstanding farm credit, up from just 5.5% two years ago. Todd Gleason: That is a look at today’s agricultural news. 15:16 Ag Weather with Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. Todd Gleason: Let’s take a look at the weather forecast for the growing regions across the planet. We are now joined by Drew Lerner. He is at World Weather, Incorporated in Kansas City. Thank you again for joining us today, I appreciate that Drew. Tell me about the rainfall and the cool weather we have been having in the United States, and what impact you think it is having on crops across the Corn Belt and the wheat harvest as well. Drew Lerner: We are certainly seeing an active weather pattern; everyone knows that. The biggest issue I see coming up in the near term is not so much for crops as it is for humans, because with all the moisture on the ground, when it does turn warmer, it will get ugly out there. We will be cutting through the humidity with knives. From a crop development perspective, the majority of the Midwest, the Delta, southeastern states, and parts of the Plains are doing fairly well. We have pockets that are too wet or still teetering on being slightly dry. The flooding in Missouri has been bad, and we will see more heavy rain there before next week is over. There are places across other areas in the Midwest pushing that limit with river and stream flooding. We have the tropical event along the Gulf Coast producing flooding rain in Alabama and parts of Louisiana. The cool temperatures have been pleasant for human living but are slowing down crop development rates in some cases. Nighttime lows in the northern Plains and upper Midwest are in the 40s and 50s, which is not great for corn and soybeans. That will continue through the weekend into early next week. We are losing growing degree days and slowing crop development, plus slowing drying rates, adding to the frequent precipitation pattern. It is okay for now, but we need to turn the channel and come up with something more appealing for crop development. I think you will see that evolve in the final days of June and early July. We should have a punch of warmer weather, at least in the western Corn Belt and Plains. The eastern Midwest may continue to have milder conditions. Canada is suffering from this as well; their crop development rates are far behind in the eastern Prairies. There is concern that late-planted crops may not be fully mature by the frost season in early September. That needs to be closely monitored. Todd Gleason: Cool here, but the heat has been on in France. The G7 conference is taking place, but really it is about the weather for the two of us. Is it still hot, and do you expect it to continue? Drew Lerner: It is building up to the peak of the heat wave. We are slowly getting there. Ridgeiness has been building. I looked at data yesterday, and France has seen less than half of normal rainfall since mid-March. In the last 30 days, about two-thirds of the country has had less than 25% of normal rain. Temperatures have not been that far off from normal, so there have been cool days and a few hot days. We are building a ridge over western Europe that will peak this weekend into early next week. Temperatures in the 90s and upper 80s will be common. France may see extremes slightly over 100 degrees. The UK will see temperatures in the lower 90s, and Germany in the 90s as well. France has that dry bias. Winter crops are seriously stressed, but the vegetative health index compared to last year shows only about half the country is in worse shape. We are moving in a negative direction, but wheat and rapeseed are not expected to be severely impacted. Spring and summer crops are a different story; with 10 to 14 days of dry weather ahead, France needs to be closely monitored. Todd Gleason: And the impact of El Niño in places like Indonesia… if I remember correctly, that is pretty strong. Drew Lerner: Yes, it is. When we get into the latter part of the third quarter and the fourth quarter, you will see quite a bit of dryness there. Today, the moisture profile is very good in Indonesia and Malaysia, and fair in the Philippines. As El Niño becomes more dominating, rainfall will decrease. This should begin in about 10 days to two weeks and become more dominating late in the year. There will be dryness not only in Indonesia and Malaysia, but probably the Philippines and mainland Southeast Asia. That needs to be monitored from a rice, sugarcane, and oil palm perspective. Todd Gleason: Lastly, could you take a look at Asia for me? Start in northeastern China, corn country, and work south, where El Niño has more impact. Drew Lerner: Northeastern China is doing very well. They are seeing frequent showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures have been warmly biased until recently, now more seasonable. Most corn and soybean areas in the northeast are fine, along with spring wheat and sugar beets. For east-central China, between the Yellow and Yangtze Rivers, there has been drying. It looks like they will turn the corner and get timely rain next week, so that should not be an issue. South of the Yangtze River, a lot of rice and sugarcane are getting clobbered with rain. The ground is saturated down to three feet. It will continue to rain frequently. In El Niño years, they almost always are wet in southern China through the end of the year, so rice production could be a concern. Todd Gleason: Thank you much, I appreciate it. Drew Lerner: You bet, have a great day. Todd Gleason: You too. Drew Lerner is with World Weather, Inc. in Kansas City. He joined us on this Wednesday edition of the Closing Market Report, coming to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online on demand at willag.org. I’m Extension’s Todd Gleason.