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Jobs, Hiring, Tech, and Real Estate · Bloomberg Intelligence

0:00
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside
0:04
Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller.
0:05
Speaker 2: Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros,
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Speaker 2: and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moven news.
0:14
Speaker 1: Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever
0:17
Speaker 1: you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot Com, slash
0:20
Speaker 1: podcastle Scaleup Talk. Dan Eyes he knows all this stuff
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Speaker 1: because he's a tech analyst. He does that stuff for
0:25
Speaker 1: web Bush Securities. He joins his via Zoom sporting his
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Speaker 1: Penn State regalia there, which we appreciate as always. Hey Dan,
0:33
Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. I got to start
0:34
Speaker 1: with Tesla. I mean, Elon changes prices on his cars
0:38
Speaker 1: like most people change socks. I thought this was a
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Speaker 1: little bit more to the downside, a little bit more scientific,
0:43
Speaker 1: because I want to go to the issue which I
0:46
Speaker 1: asked Matt. I'd love to get your thoughts, Dan, how
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Speaker 1: do you model out like real demand for electric vehicles?
0:56
Speaker 3: Look, I mean if you look at the price cards,
0:59
Speaker 3: no doubt this one. I think surprise the street. I
1:02
Speaker 3: mean it surprises us a bit right in terms of
1:05
Speaker 3: we believe about ninety five percent of the price cards
1:07
Speaker 3: in the rearview mirror. Now, from an elasticity perspective, growth
1:12
Speaker 3: is sort of steady state. What I really view in
1:14
Speaker 3: that sort of thirty to forty percent ban so in
1:17
Speaker 3: terms of year of year of growth. But when you
1:20
Speaker 3: look at some of these cuts, look, it's from an
1:22
Speaker 3: inventory perspective in the US they need to right now
1:26
Speaker 3: focus on volumes over just holding the line on prices.
1:30
Speaker 3: And that's really what we're seeing in terms of this
1:32
Speaker 3: Yin Yang play out.
1:34
Speaker 2: So they're basically trying to take or hold as much
1:39
Speaker 2: market share as they can, imagine as these UAW strikes
1:44
Speaker 2: kind of free customers out. Yesterday, I was talking to
1:45
Speaker 2: a dealer who said, and he owns Ford GM as
1:50
Speaker 2: well as Delantis stores, and he said, even if they
1:53
Speaker 2: had inventory of say you're looking for a Ford Ranger
1:56
Speaker 2: and they have one, customers are already worried about the
2:00
Speaker 2: strike affecting parts, about the strike affecting build quality, and
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Speaker 2: they're already looking, you know, let's go look at a
2:10
Speaker 2: Nissan Frontier or a Toyota Tacoma instead. So do you
2:13
Speaker 2: do you see the strike already having effects on Tesla
2:15
Speaker 2: competitors definitely.
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Speaker 3: I mean we've seen it even as of the last
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Speaker 3: even two weeks ago. I mean because the worry here
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Speaker 3: and look that's always say it's such a debacle in
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Speaker 3: Detroit in terms of this UAW strike because it was
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Speaker 3: doing for consumers looking at alternatives. And when I believe
2:34
Speaker 3: if this lasts another two three weeks, this starts to
2:37
Speaker 3: have a pretty massive ripple effect even twenty twenty four
2:42
Speaker 3: from the EV lineup. And who benefits there. It's Tessa,
2:45
Speaker 3: it's Ridian, it's far and auto makers, and I think
2:48
Speaker 3: that's the frustration right now for a bar and Farling.
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Speaker 4: Yep.
2:53
Speaker 1: Interesting. I mean I just bought the bmw X three
2:56
Speaker 1: met and I just went to look and see what
2:58
Speaker 1: the the EV offerings are.
2:59
Speaker 4: There.
3:00
Speaker 1: Huge premiums they wanted over and I'm like, I'm not
3:02
Speaker 1: paying a premium just to say.
3:04
Speaker 2: Massive premiums to make a purchase now. And then on
3:07
Speaker 2: the other on the other side of that, you do
3:08
Speaker 2: get a seventy five dollars yeah, tax credit credit, and
3:14
Speaker 2: and then you'll get another one for probably two grand
3:17
Speaker 2: from New Jersey, so all in about ten grand back.
3:20
Speaker 1: That's the math doesn't work right now, all right? Hey,
3:22
Speaker 1: So let's step back, Dan, you cover you know, a
3:24
Speaker 1: big swath of the tech space here. We got interest
3:27
Speaker 1: rates to my friend, continuing to go higher. That's got
3:30
Speaker 1: to be tough on the valuation call. How do you
3:32
Speaker 1: put some of your your tech bullishness in the context
3:36
Speaker 1: of these rising these rising rates rates we haven't seen
3:39
Speaker 1: since two thousand and seven.
3:41
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, no doubt it's caused white knuckles,
3:43
Speaker 3: and we've seen it with tax stocks on the pressure
3:46
Speaker 3: I mean, Paul Matt, I just kind of view it
3:49
Speaker 3: all all of our checks. Fundamentally speaking, I think we
3:52
Speaker 3: go into a three cure earning the season. That's going
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Speaker 3: to be pretty significant surprise at the upside across cloud, software,
4:01
Speaker 3: digital advertising, I think on the chip side as well.
4:05
Speaker 3: So you'll you'll see this and maybe a bit overshadow
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Speaker 3: on the near term. But I believe we go into
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Speaker 3: the next three to six months and this is more
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Speaker 3: of a golden opportunity to buy tech rather than time
4:15
Speaker 3: to fear it on sort of macro worries, I mean
4:19
Speaker 3: that that continues to be We're handholding clients through this.
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Speaker 2: I will say that tech so uh, I've just charted
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Speaker 2: out the Nasdaq YEP, and if you put that up
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Speaker 2: against the US tenure, you'll see that as rates rise,
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Speaker 2: even though the Nasdaq wants to rally, still it's pulling down.
4:39
Speaker 1: Those tech stocks.
4:41
Speaker 2: So you know, if rates continue to climb, that's no
4:44
Speaker 2: bueno for for stocks. And if inflation comes down. You
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Speaker 2: know when it was on its way up and that
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Speaker 2: was fattening margins. When inflation comes down, do margins get
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Speaker 2: under pressure?
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Speaker 3: Look, I mean theory from a high level, you could
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Speaker 3: say that, but if what's actually happening is, you know,
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Speaker 3: supply chains normalizing. You look at AI and we talked
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Speaker 3: as the biggest transformation from a tech perspective in the
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Speaker 3: last thirty is it's a huge talent and you're actually
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Speaker 3: now starting to see just more and more efficiencies throughout
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Speaker 3: these software companies and supply chains. So I actually think
5:22
Speaker 3: this is a talent. And look in a lot of
5:24
Speaker 3: these companies, they have more cash than some countries right
5:27
Speaker 3: in terms of they don't need to rely on the
5:29
Speaker 3: debt markets. I think M and A is going to
5:31
Speaker 3: continue to accelerate. And I just view this as sort
5:35
Speaker 3: of the time where I think tech gets stronger despite
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Speaker 3: maybe macro clouding it, as many of the Bears, right,
5:42
Speaker 3: I mean they've they've called ten of the last two
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Speaker 3: downturns the last twenty years.
5:46
Speaker 1: Hey, Dan, let's let's switch gears to another name. I
5:49
Speaker 1: know you do a lot of work on Apple. What
5:52
Speaker 1: can you tell us about this early rollout of the
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Speaker 1: Apple iPhone fifteen? How's it going as a meeting expectations?
6:00
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts?
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Speaker 3: I mean I can tell you even as of checks
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Speaker 3: this week in Asia, right now ahead of plan it's
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Speaker 3: about ten to ten eleven twelve percent above iPhone fourteen.
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Speaker 3: China has actually been strong if you could sell through,
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Speaker 3: is there? And despite what'll call it the too hot
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Speaker 3: to handle those situations terms the iPhone and fifteen the
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Speaker 3: software rollout, which will which will fix that? Look, it
6:25
Speaker 3: comes down to just if you get the promotions and carriers,
6:29
Speaker 3: it's a no brain. I mean a lot of customers
6:31
Speaker 3: right now they're essentially trading in again iPhone fifteens for free.
6:37
Speaker 1: What are you telling? What are you telling clients here?
6:39
Speaker 1: This is kind of the best trade here in tech?
6:42
Speaker 1: From your list, I.
6:45
Speaker 3: Think the best trade is probably Microsoft into earnings.
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Speaker 5: You know that.
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Speaker 3: I think software? If I look at Microsoft, Google, an Amazon,
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Speaker 3: those three because of what's happened on cloud and these
6:57
Speaker 3: hyperscale buildouts. I think that continues to really be the
7:01
Speaker 3: trade here. And even though look, I mean the New
7:05
Speaker 3: York City cab drivers barish on tech and earning. So
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Speaker 3: I think that sets up for what I view is
7:11
Speaker 3: just a very strong rally into year end, despite opposite
7:15
Speaker 3: Macro ten year Jitters All right, Dan.
7:19
Speaker 1: Well, actually real quick, I'm just looking at the background
7:21
Speaker 1: of his little zoom set up there. I see a
7:23
Speaker 1: lot in your sports paraphernalia. With the Giants. I got
7:26
Speaker 1: asked a question, do the Giants have a quarterback?
7:32
Speaker 4: Look?
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Speaker 3: I mean that's they have a running back, right, and
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Speaker 3: I think the Achilles heel. It's just I just don't
7:37
Speaker 3: know if Jones is that quarterback that's gonna get us there.
7:40
Speaker 3: And also you have an offensive line that is like
7:43
Speaker 3: Swiss Jeeves.
7:45
Speaker 1: But we've got a quarterback. We've got to get him
7:46
Speaker 1: back on the field. That is, of course Aaron Rodgers.
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Speaker 1: Oh excuse him, Dan, excuse me? So that's the Jets. Yeah,
7:53
Speaker 1: that's the Jets. That's sorry, Well, nobody in.
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Speaker 2: New York has a quarterback then, right.
7:58
Speaker 1: You're exactly, well, we don't know about it doesn't matter.
8:00
Speaker 1: Let's let that go. He's got a job to do.
8:02
Speaker 1: Dan i'ves web Bush Security Senior analys He covers all
8:05
Speaker 1: the tech. We appreciate getting a few minutes of this time.
8:07
Speaker 1: Big Penn State fan.
8:09
Speaker 5: You're listening to the team Ken's are live program Bloomberg
8:13
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8:16
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8:19
Speaker 5: on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
8:23
Speaker 1: You know, we had a big revision to last month's
8:26
Speaker 1: jobs number. Yeah, and you put the revising a bigger
8:29
Speaker 1: beat and then a huge beat today. So that's five.
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Speaker 1: I'm doing a math. Five hundred and sixty three thousand
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Speaker 1: jobs added to the US pay roll over the last
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Speaker 1: couple of months. Who are these people and who's hiring
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Speaker 1: all them? So let's talk to somebody who does this
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Speaker 1: stuff for real. Julia Pollock, chief economists at ZIP Recruiter. Boy,
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Speaker 1: they're going to know what's happening. Julia, thanks so much
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Speaker 1: for joining us. Number one. Who's hiring all these people? Well?
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Speaker 6: This report shows job growth pretty much across the board. Leisure, hospitality,
8:58
Speaker 6: healthcare remains very strong. Vasional business services were strong. There's
9:03
Speaker 6: almost no area where there's weakness except the information sector.
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Speaker 6: That sector has lost two point five percent of its
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Speaker 6: employees over the past year. It's the glaring exception.
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Speaker 2: Wait, what's the information Are we in the information sector?
9:18
Speaker 6: We are all the information sector. Yes, it's tech broadcasters,
9:24
Speaker 6: et cetera.
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Speaker 1: Boy, John Tucker, you're looking at me for so, Julia,
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Speaker 1: you know one hundred and fifty I guess one hundred
9:35
Speaker 1: and seventy thousand was the or one hundred and sixty
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Speaker 1: one hundred thousand was the estimate. Why were the economists
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Speaker 1: so wrong? What are the economists getting wrong?
9:44
Speaker 6: Well, you know, there's something called the surprise index, and
9:48
Speaker 6: it has been showing that we've been wrong for over
9:50
Speaker 6: a year. The economy keeps surprising to the upside. And
9:54
Speaker 6: that's because our traditional understanding of gravity of you know,
9:58
Speaker 6: forces in the economy is that when the FED raises
10:03
Speaker 6: interest rates, that's going to slow economic activity down. And
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Speaker 6: I mean, what doesn't need to explain it. Any ordinary
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Speaker 6: American can understand this. When rates go up, you think
10:13
Speaker 6: twice about borrowing to open a business or build a
10:16
Speaker 6: home or whatever.
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Speaker 4: It is.
10:18
Speaker 6: The issue here is that well, activity has cooled in
10:21
Speaker 6: some areas, but there have been offsetting sources of strength
10:26
Speaker 6: that have caused the overall picture to remain very very rosy.
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Speaker 2: So does this mean that the Fed has to raise
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Speaker 2: rates again? Julia?
10:39
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, you're an economist.
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Speaker 2: That seems to be their goal raised race, slow down businesses,
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Speaker 2: slow down hiring, slow down spending.
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Speaker 1: Is that is that going to happen?
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Speaker 6: So for the last three months, those PCE inflation reports
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Speaker 6: have been very encouraging, and they precore PC inflation at
10:59
Speaker 6: just two percent over the past three months. And so
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Speaker 6: if we are really within kind of you know, Stone's
11:09
Speaker 6: throw of the Fed's inflation target, looking at the numbers
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Speaker 6: that it cares about most, perhaps they won't need to
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Speaker 6: raise rates again. You know, it's not their goal here.
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Speaker 6: Isn't to reduce employment. It isn't to raise unemployment. It's
11:22
Speaker 6: to cool inflation. And if that can happen without pain
11:25
Speaker 6: in the live market, so much the better.
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Speaker 1: So, Julia, what are the employers that you guys talked
11:31
Speaker 1: to a ZIP recruiter? What are they telling you about
11:34
Speaker 1: their ability to hire people? Are they finding the people
11:37
Speaker 1: they want? Do they have to pay up to get them.
11:40
Speaker 1: What are the key drivers for the employers?
11:43
Speaker 6: So we are about to release an employer survey, our
11:46
Speaker 6: new annual Employer Survey, and our pain is a very
11:50
Speaker 6: very clear picture that employers are still struggling. It is
11:54
Speaker 6: not easy out there to recruit and retain talent. Their
11:58
Speaker 6: biggest difficulty is not not being able to find qualified candidates,
12:03
Speaker 6: but over forty percent say they can't find candidates at all.
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Speaker 6: And then once they do find candidates, they're having a
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Speaker 6: really tough time making connections with those candidates. You know,
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Speaker 6: it was thirty seven percent of the time candidates are
12:15
Speaker 6: ghosting their interviews.
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Speaker 1: Wow, So what are the kids today? Are just the
12:20
Speaker 1: people that are looking for jobs today? How important is
12:22
Speaker 1: that whole hybrid model where I'm going to wear to
12:26
Speaker 1: work from home? How important is that today?
12:29
Speaker 6: Well, the five day in office work week is effectively dead.
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Speaker 1: Only sixty nobody told us.
12:38
Speaker 6: Well in our survey, employers say that only sixteen percent
12:43
Speaker 6: of their office jobs are being done in office all
12:46
Speaker 6: the time five days a week. So most employers are
12:49
Speaker 6: providing some form of flexibility at least one two three
12:54
Speaker 6: days when workers can work from home. Hybrid is the
12:57
Speaker 6: new normal.
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Speaker 2: Everyone has told us by Yes, every day someone.
13:01
Speaker 1: Tells us that, So don't worry.
13:03
Speaker 2: Paul's just pushing back against it. I look at while
13:07
Speaker 2: in the terminal we have E can Go, which is
13:10
Speaker 2: a pretty cool function, and you can choose non farm
13:12
Speaker 2: payrolls from the drop down menu. Highly recommend it and
13:15
Speaker 2: look at the breakdown. So it's as you said, Julia,
13:19
Speaker 2: leisure and hospitality a huge driver of this last report.
13:24
Speaker 2: And then also government is a big driver in terms
13:28
Speaker 2: of adding jobs. Where do you see this going. Construction
13:32
Speaker 2: kind of shrank a little bit. Where do you see
13:34
Speaker 2: this going as we head into the holiday season.
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Speaker 6: Well, you know, that's a good news story, not a
13:39
Speaker 6: bad news story. I think some people are interpreting that
13:41
Speaker 6: as the economy only creating low paying jobs and leasion hospitality.
13:45
Speaker 6: That's not true. With today's report, every major sector has
13:49
Speaker 6: now recovered to pre pandemic levels except leisure hospitality, which
13:53
Speaker 6: thank goodness, is at least catching up and moving in
13:55
Speaker 6: the right direction.
13:57
Speaker 7: You know, the.
13:57
Speaker 6: Government, local government school rules have been short staffed. They
14:02
Speaker 6: started the last school year with lots of vacancies. They
14:05
Speaker 6: had to do the same thing again this year, so
14:07
Speaker 6: it's good to see them finally making some headway, and
14:11
Speaker 6: the private sector still posted the lion's dare of the jobs.
14:16
Speaker 1: So we had average hourly earnings grow four point two
14:20
Speaker 1: percent year every year. You can make the argument that
14:23
Speaker 1: number should actually be higher if there's so many, if
14:25
Speaker 1: it's so hard to find, people want to just pay more.
14:29
Speaker 6: Yes, So on average wages have grown eighteen percent now
14:34
Speaker 6: since the pandemic. Prices have also grown eighteen percent since
14:37
Speaker 6: the pandemic. So from the perspective of most workers, it's
14:40
Speaker 6: been a wash. They're just treading water and they got
14:45
Speaker 6: used to real wage growths between twenty thirteen and twenty nineteen,
14:49
Speaker 6: when they actually saw their wages grow about one point
14:52
Speaker 6: four percent faster than inflation each year. So they're wondering
14:55
Speaker 6: why they're not managing to get a little bit more
14:59
Speaker 6: each year. I think that wages could still do some
15:03
Speaker 6: catching up over the coming years, given how tight the
15:06
Speaker 6: slave market is.
15:07
Speaker 1: All right, Julia, thanks so much. We appreciate that as always,
15:10
Speaker 1: Julia Pollock from Zip Recruiter.
15:13
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15:32
Speaker 1: Let's break down this job's number because it deserves some
15:35
Speaker 1: more attention. Here. Tom Gimble, he is with us. He
15:38
Speaker 1: knows a thing or two about this market. He's the
15:40
Speaker 1: CEO of LaSalle Network, and Tom, I'm just going to say,
15:44
Speaker 1: you know, here's my analysis.
15:45
Speaker 4: Wow, I would agree. And just before we get rolling
15:49
Speaker 4: on this, for the record, I went to University of
15:50
Speaker 4: Colorado and coach Prime. I'm just so we're going to
15:53
Speaker 4: talk football. Let's just talk about who's really on the upside.
15:56
Speaker 1: That's right.
15:58
Speaker 4: No, this number is fantastic. I think a lot of
16:01
Speaker 4: it's propped up by the government quite frankly, which gives
16:04
Speaker 4: me a little cause for concern of when that's bigot
16:07
Speaker 4: finally gets turned off. But it's definitely a good sign
16:12
Speaker 4: that we're not ready to land this economy just yet.
16:15
Speaker 2: So where's all the impetus coming from? We were talking
16:18
Speaker 2: yesterday about the Inflation Reduction Act, and of course we
16:21
Speaker 2: had the Chips Act. Is that money flowing? Is that
16:24
Speaker 2: money hiring people.
16:25
Speaker 4: I think it's the initial infrastructure package. I was talking
16:29
Speaker 4: to group down in Texas, that construction company, and that
16:36
Speaker 4: a couple of years ago, seventy percent of their business
16:39
Speaker 4: was I had followed up on a story that I
16:42
Speaker 4: had read and talked to them that seventy percent of
16:44
Speaker 4: their business used to be private and now seventy percent
16:49
Speaker 4: is public sector and working for the government. And so
16:51
Speaker 4: I think that the infrastructure is really bearing this thing down.
16:54
Speaker 4: It's getting a little crazy.
16:56
Speaker 1: Can you explain what I guess labor hoarding is. I think
17:00
Speaker 1: it's really a what is it? Indeed, do you think
17:02
Speaker 1: it's a thing.
17:03
Speaker 4: Well, I think the concept of hiring people and not
17:08
Speaker 4: necessarily needing to use them because the talent may come
17:12
Speaker 4: and play at a later date. If that's what you're
17:14
Speaker 4: referring to. And I think that the situation with what
17:18
Speaker 4: big Tech used to do in that capacity of hiring
17:21
Speaker 4: people and not yet needing them, I don't think that
17:26
Speaker 4: it was in wide abundance. I think it's happened from
17:29
Speaker 4: time to time. The real challenge that we have if
17:32
Speaker 4: you look at the Jold's report and if you look
17:34
Speaker 4: at the openings versus the number of people in the
17:38
Speaker 4: market and looking and that discrepancy. What it really says is,
17:42
Speaker 4: and we've talked about this before on Jobs Friday, is
17:45
Speaker 4: the skills gap and where we're missing it, and we're
17:47
Speaker 4: missing it in two areas, technology and blue collar labor,
17:52
Speaker 4: and we've got it's all coming at a time that
17:56
Speaker 4: people are picking political fights instead of doing what's necessary
17:59
Speaker 4: for the economy, and that's immigration, both on legal and
18:03
Speaker 4: illegal immigration south of the border, which affects the blue
18:06
Speaker 4: collar and European immigration, which really affects the technological gap
18:12
Speaker 4: that we have. And we need both of those areas
18:14
Speaker 4: if we want to continue our dominance as a political
18:18
Speaker 4: and capitalistic leader.
18:20
Speaker 2: So wait, you're not saying you're not railing against immigration
18:26
Speaker 2: complaining that our jobs get stolen, but saying we need
18:28
Speaker 2: that immigration to fuel our growth.
18:31
Speaker 4: One hundred percent. I mean, look at everyone wants to
18:33
Speaker 4: compare what we have going on with infrastructure to the
18:35
Speaker 4: New Deal. And when we had the New Deal, who
18:38
Speaker 4: did that? Immigrants? And so you know, when you have
18:41
Speaker 4: that and the people willing to throw a hammer and
18:44
Speaker 4: do the blue collar work, and we don't have those
18:46
Speaker 4: people now. Do I think that immigration south of the
18:48
Speaker 4: border and letting you illegal. No, I'm not propoting. I'm
18:53
Speaker 4: not a proponent of that. What I do think we
18:55
Speaker 4: need to do is come to a conclusive agreement on
18:59
Speaker 4: what's the best way to get people in to keep
19:01
Speaker 4: the economy fueled, which goes to payroll taxes, which goes
19:05
Speaker 4: to companies being able to accomplish things, which leads to
19:08
Speaker 4: trickle down economics where you have more suppliers to what's
19:12
Speaker 4: going on. We've just got this intersection that everybody thinks
19:15
Speaker 4: that the economy is going to keep going forever. We've
19:18
Speaker 4: got the UAW talking about thirty two hours of work
19:22
Speaker 4: for forty hours of pay. You know that's entitlement talk.
19:26
Speaker 4: That's not capitalistic talk.
19:28
Speaker 8: You know.
19:29
Speaker 2: Well, I just wanted to pull up he can he
19:31
Speaker 2: Can Go, which is a function that I've been playing
19:34
Speaker 2: with on the Bloomberg terminal. It's a very cool way
19:38
Speaker 2: to chart job games, and Eca n go is the
19:42
Speaker 2: way you can pull it up if can look at
19:44
Speaker 2: a number of data points with it. But I can
19:46
Speaker 2: see tom that we added a lot more jobs in
19:50
Speaker 2: leisure and hospitality in the last month than we have
19:53
Speaker 2: in previous months. We added more jobs well, government workers.
19:57
Speaker 2: We added more government workers than we did last month.
20:00
Speaker 2: We had more trade, transportation and utilities workers than we
20:03
Speaker 2: did last month. What do you think about the trends
20:06
Speaker 2: about the sectors that you've seen move and how do
20:10
Speaker 2: you see it going forward into the holiday shopping season.
20:13
Speaker 4: Well, I think that the consumer spending, I think is
20:19
Speaker 4: going to be decent, and I think when and I
20:23
Speaker 4: know that there's talk about where the individual credit problems
20:28
Speaker 4: are and what we're looking at, but what we've got is,
20:34
Speaker 4: you know, what's the expression that he who knows, he
20:37
Speaker 4: who knows only his own generation remains always a child.
20:41
Speaker 4: And I think that we're looking at people that don't
20:43
Speaker 4: want to study history and don't want to look back,
20:45
Speaker 4: and we've got a couple of generations of people that
20:48
Speaker 4: think that if if we overspend, are what we have,
20:53
Speaker 4: the government's going to take care of us. And I
20:55
Speaker 4: think we're going to see that through the holiday season.
20:57
Speaker 4: And I haven't seen any information to tell me otherwise.
21:01
Speaker 4: I see the travel and hospitality, like you said, continues
21:04
Speaker 4: to hire. There's a shortage, and I'm in Chicago. I
21:07
Speaker 4: was in Denver last week and Charlotte and I saw
21:11
Speaker 4: signs in every restaurant that they're looking for people and hiring,
21:14
Speaker 4: and and you have situations where people companies still want
21:18
Speaker 4: to you know, look at California, they want to raise
21:20
Speaker 4: the hourly rate for ret They are raising the hourly
21:23
Speaker 4: rate for restaurant workers and simultaneously complaining about inflation and
21:27
Speaker 4: what we can do about it. It's like the left
21:30
Speaker 4: hand doesn't know what the right hand is doing.
21:32
Speaker 2: Look at the fiscal stimulus that we get and the
21:34
Speaker 2: FED trying to raise rates. So you know, as the
21:37
Speaker 2: as the federal government is stimulating economic growth, the FED
21:41
Speaker 2: is trying to slow it down.
21:43
Speaker 4: Yep, Hey Tom, Yeah, Well I think that that's because
21:45
Speaker 4: the Fed, the FED isn't worrying about votes.
21:48
Speaker 1: That's probably true, right, Tom. Talk to us about, you know,
21:51
Speaker 1: kind of some of the trades out there where you
21:53
Speaker 1: see a lot of reporting that employers can't find people,
21:56
Speaker 1: you know, whether it's electricians or plumbers or things like that.
21:59
Speaker 1: And you know a lot of folks probably are weighing
22:01
Speaker 1: whether to get a college education and all that student
22:04
Speaker 1: debt versus maybe going to a trade school. Talk to
22:06
Speaker 1: us about kind of the supplying demand of trade men
22:09
Speaker 1: and women out there in the economy.
22:11
Speaker 4: Oh, there's a huge there's a huge shortage of the
22:13
Speaker 4: blue collar trades. And what ends up happening is you
22:17
Speaker 4: see it during during housing bubbles and and when new
22:21
Speaker 4: construction numbers are going up and they can't find enough
22:25
Speaker 4: people to do that. And we're seeing it with infrastructure too,
22:27
Speaker 4: but just on a local level of somebody to come
22:30
Speaker 4: and fix your plumbing or your lawn sprinklers or cut
22:33
Speaker 4: the grass and doing that is that there's a there's
22:36
Speaker 4: a shortage of labor, which comes from twofold number one,
22:39
Speaker 4: the immigration problem that we talked about a few moments ago.
22:42
Speaker 4: And then secondarily, you've got people that are going to
22:44
Speaker 4: college for one year, two year, three years because they
22:48
Speaker 4: think that's what they're supposed to do. Societies leading them
22:50
Speaker 4: down that path. They're incurring the debt, although I think
22:54
Speaker 4: the President just eliminated about nine billion dollars of it.
22:57
Speaker 4: And then what do they do And what we moved
23:00
Speaker 4: into is people working at the Verizon store to sell
23:03
Speaker 4: phones and they're not happy and the service level isn't great,
23:07
Speaker 4: or going in and learning a trade, and which is
23:10
Speaker 4: really you know, the true middle class. If we're going
23:14
Speaker 4: to look back over the past seventy years, all.
23:16
Speaker 1: Right, Tom, thanks as always for chiming in on this
23:19
Speaker 1: Job's Friday. Tom Gimble, CEO at LaSalle Network.
23:24
Speaker 5: You're listening to the Team Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg
23:27
Speaker 5: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,
23:31
Speaker 5: the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen
23:34
Speaker 5: on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
23:37
Speaker 1: Let's go to somebody who actually knows where they're talking about.
23:40
Speaker 1: I they get paid to know what they're talking about,
23:41
Speaker 1: as opposed to the three of us. Ellis Pfeiffer. He's
23:43
Speaker 1: a managing director in fixed income research at Raymond James
23:47
Speaker 1: Raymond James. By the way, if people don't know, it
23:49
Speaker 1: is a very very good regional investment bank prograch firm
23:53
Speaker 1: ray j as we let to call it in the biz.
23:55
Speaker 1: I competed against them a lot. They have a lot
23:56
Speaker 1: of good ana. There's a lot of good bankers down there,
23:58
Speaker 1: and what they do they do well. Ellis, thanks so
24:01
Speaker 1: much for joining us here. Explain to us why you
24:04
Speaker 1: know we got this print on the employment and then
24:08
Speaker 1: people said, oh, you know, this gives more ammunition to
24:10
Speaker 1: the Fed to maybe hike rates. And but now the
24:13
Speaker 1: stock market's up and yields are coming back in. What
24:16
Speaker 1: do you make of today's print maybe how it might
24:18
Speaker 1: impact the Fed?
24:20
Speaker 8: Well, I think, you know, it's not going to slow
24:22
Speaker 8: down the Fed as far as you know their rhetoric,
24:24
Speaker 8: and it's not going to make them change course by
24:27
Speaker 8: any stretch because the job market is obviously continued to
24:30
Speaker 8: be relatively strong. Now the issue becomes, you know, when
24:35
Speaker 8: you look at the underlying data, there was some some
24:39
Speaker 8: not discrepancies, I guess, but some differences between the non
24:42
Speaker 8: farm peril data that came out this morning, some of
24:45
Speaker 8: the data earlier in the week, and then the household
24:48
Speaker 8: employment numbers is you know, household survey this morning that's
24:52
Speaker 8: responsible for the unemployment rate. So you know, the earlier
24:55
Speaker 8: in the week we learned that, you know, Joelt's data
24:58
Speaker 8: told us there were a lot of professional jobs, high
25:00
Speaker 8: paying jobs, and we're opening yet today's survey on the
25:06
Speaker 8: household survey tells us that, well, you know, most of
25:09
Speaker 8: the jobs came in lower paying jobs, such as you know,
25:13
Speaker 8: the services industry, and that the part time work has
25:16
Speaker 8: actually increased, whereas full time workers actually decreased. So those
25:20
Speaker 8: things kind of coldbined to help the abrgality earning stops.
25:24
Speaker 8: I think that's where the market's kind of looking at
25:25
Speaker 8: this going well, you know, the the survey the households
25:29
Speaker 8: are there is really more closely tied to the ADP
25:33
Speaker 8: jobs number, so maybe not quite as strong, you know,
25:37
Speaker 8: the headline data versus the true underlying data. And I
25:40
Speaker 8: think that's why the market turned around to that.
25:42
Speaker 2: So what do you think is driving this, uh, this
25:46
Speaker 2: this labor market. At the same time as indust rates
25:50
Speaker 2: have risen to you know, levels we haven't seen since
25:52
Speaker 2: two thousand and seven, companies continue to hirelight crazy.
25:55
Speaker 8: Why, Well, I think a lot of you know, a
25:58
Speaker 8: lot of the hiring has come in, you know, the
26:00
Speaker 8: the services industry, and you know, when when things are tough,
26:03
Speaker 8: we were hoping we'd see this big rotation into the
26:06
Speaker 8: services industry away from the goods industry and that, and
26:11
Speaker 8: we've been getting it of late. We've had you know,
26:14
Speaker 8: had a lot of savings still tent up from from
26:17
Speaker 8: pandemic stimulus. Uh that that has been drawn down a lot,
26:21
Speaker 8: but a lot of that spending went moved away from
26:25
Speaker 8: the goods day the goods type of purchases into the
26:29
Speaker 8: services type purchases and that's you know, frankly, while the
26:32
Speaker 8: FED has been so focused on you know, services inflation
26:36
Speaker 8: less housing because in our house it's very sticky, So
26:39
Speaker 8: they've been they've been focused there. That's where the growth
26:41
Speaker 8: has been. It's been it's really in the services, uh industry.
26:45
Speaker 2: So what do you take from the rates picture then, ellis?
26:47
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, we had for a long time
26:51
Speaker 2: and inverted a very inverted yield curve wherever you looked,
26:55
Speaker 2: and typically you know that has signaled a recession. Now
26:59
Speaker 2: we have have a bear steepening, which is I suppose
27:04
Speaker 2: rarer than a bowl steepening, and correct me if I'm
27:07
Speaker 2: wrong with these terms, but basically it doesn't happen as often,
27:11
Speaker 2: but that always leads into a recession. So how does
27:16
Speaker 2: the future look to you considering what the curve is
27:18
Speaker 2: telling us?
27:19
Speaker 8: Yeah? Absolutely, and you're absolutely right, it's a little bit
27:22
Speaker 8: different this time. You know, back in two thousand and
27:24
Speaker 8: seven we saw a little bit of a bear steepening
27:27
Speaker 8: ahead of the recession, but so it is fairly rare
27:31
Speaker 8: for that to happen as far as the recession, and
27:34
Speaker 8: a resteepening of the U curve is definitely a better
27:38
Speaker 8: predictor than an inversion, and at least a more timely predicted.
27:43
Speaker 8: So but you know, I think the resteepening has occurred
27:46
Speaker 8: from two factors. One has been that rise in oil prices,
27:50
Speaker 8: which has since come off quite a bit, and so
27:53
Speaker 8: that that hasn't barely been reflecting the bomb market. I
27:55
Speaker 8: think we're kind of nervous about today. And then the
27:59
Speaker 8: other is the higher for longer kind of makes you know,
28:01
Speaker 8: the bond market tend to reprice, you know, that term
28:05
Speaker 8: premium that that tends to you know, keep rates a
28:08
Speaker 8: little bit more elevated for the time. So I think
28:11
Speaker 8: it's going to have to obviously similar more data prints,
28:14
Speaker 8: but I think that's kind of why we're sitting at
28:16
Speaker 8: these highs. And and frankly, there's a there's a lot
28:20
Speaker 8: of speculative interest on the short side or bond market.
28:24
Speaker 8: So the sentiment from you know, the speculative market is
28:30
Speaker 8: quite dramatic at this point. And they are a very
28:35
Speaker 8: good sentiment indicator, they're not a very good timing indicator.
28:38
Speaker 8: Similar instances were you know, twenty eighteen, uh and then
28:42
Speaker 8: once you know, the common began to show some weakness
28:46
Speaker 8: and some some other issues, you know bond market actually started.
28:49
Speaker 1: Rallying them els thirty seconds left. What's the what's the
28:52
Speaker 1: typical conversation you're having these days with your clients?
28:56
Speaker 8: It is, why would I invest further out of the
28:58
Speaker 8: curve when I can get more in the shorter term?
29:01
Speaker 8: And you know, we've gone through the numbers and we're
29:03
Speaker 8: told clients, you know, if you if you just simply,
29:06
Speaker 8: for instance, by a two year at this level and
29:09
Speaker 8: give up X number of basis points over the two
29:12
Speaker 8: year cycle which you expect things to change in the
29:15
Speaker 8: market and Bonsta Valley, you would you would become you
29:20
Speaker 8: do well way better off by standing out of the
29:22
Speaker 8: eel kurt today, capturing some of that longer term yield
29:26
Speaker 8: and then instead of trying to trying to keep up
29:28
Speaker 8: with money market rates, email rights things like that.
29:31
Speaker 1: All right, Alis, I really appreciate you taking the time.
29:33
Speaker 1: Ellis Pfeiffer, he is at Raymond James. He's a managing
29:37
Speaker 1: your director in fixing, come Research.
29:40
Speaker 5: You're listening to the tape. Catch are live program Bloomberg
29:43
Speaker 5: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
29:46
Speaker 5: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app.
29:50
Speaker 5: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
29:52
Speaker 5: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
29:59
Speaker 1: One challenge is in one headwood headwinds is commercial real
30:03
Speaker 1: estate and that could be a big, big issue. It
30:07
Speaker 1: already is for a lot of investors, for a lot
30:09
Speaker 1: of owners of real estate. But we wanted to dig
30:11
Speaker 1: into it a little bit on the back of this
30:14
Speaker 1: labor data and talk about commercial real estate. John Fish
30:16
Speaker 1: is the CEO of Suffolk Construction and he's chair of
30:19
Speaker 1: the Real Estate Roundtable. And John, thanks so much for
30:23
Speaker 1: joining us here, and you're kind enough to provide some
30:25
Speaker 1: notes here, and you break it down between bad news
30:29
Speaker 1: as it relates to the state of the commercial real
30:31
Speaker 1: estate business and good news, And boy, you list a
30:34
Speaker 1: lot more bad news type of issues than good news.
30:38
Speaker 1: How concerned should we be about the commercial real estate
30:41
Speaker 1: business from a perspective that not everybody's going back to
30:44
Speaker 1: work yet, there are big loans tied to these things,
30:47
Speaker 1: there's a lot of vacant office space around. Help us
30:50
Speaker 1: frame the state of the commercial real estate business today
30:52
Speaker 1: in America.
30:54
Speaker 7: First, Paul and Matt, thank you the privilege to be
30:56
Speaker 7: with you this afternoon. I would say that the commercial
30:59
Speaker 7: real estate business in a very very tough situation this
31:02
Speaker 7: particular point in time, and some multitude of reasons that
31:05
Speaker 7: you've been reporting on over the last few months on it.
31:08
Speaker 7: You know, first, you get vacancy rates running anywhere from
31:10
Speaker 7: twenty to forty percent in the You get the hollowing
31:13
Speaker 7: out of our urban areas of our communities with the Chicago, Boston,
31:17
Speaker 7: San Francisco. You get also one hundred one point five
31:20
Speaker 7: trillion dollars or commercial loans coming to in the next
31:22
Speaker 7: couple of years, which is a significant amount of money
31:25
Speaker 7: coup with the fact that there is no capital available
31:27
Speaker 7: right now. Banks are not lending, especially the commercial banks
31:31
Speaker 7: this particular point in time, and when they do lend,
31:34
Speaker 7: the cost of this capital is significantly high than it
31:37
Speaker 7: was before in the past. And I think one of
31:39
Speaker 7: the biggest issues that I think this revolves around commercial
31:42
Speaker 7: real estate today is price discovery. People don't understand what
31:47
Speaker 7: value is today. We don't understand what building's are worth.
31:52
Speaker 7: And therefore, because there's no history over the last few months,
31:55
Speaker 7: a few quarters about how things have traded, people cannot
31:58
Speaker 7: understand valuation. And once you get in that type of
32:01
Speaker 7: doom loop situation, it really really doesn't speak well for
32:05
Speaker 7: the future of real estates, especially commercial estate over the
32:08
Speaker 7: next I would say four or five quarters my senses,
32:11
Speaker 7: at the end of the day, things will settle down,
32:14
Speaker 7: we will end up with a high degree of price discovery,
32:17
Speaker 7: and we will have more of a consistency and prictability
32:21
Speaker 7: going forward. But at the end of the day, it's
32:23
Speaker 7: a challenging time, and I think what we need to
32:25
Speaker 7: be focusing on, how do we just take this one
32:28
Speaker 7: day to time and realize what the fed's actions that
32:31
Speaker 7: are on a going four basis have a very very
32:35
Speaker 7: deleterious impact on the solution to real estate's problems today.
32:40
Speaker 2: So it does look like the FED could lean towards
32:43
Speaker 2: another hike here after we got such a strong jobs
32:46
Speaker 2: number this morning, as Paul has been saying, does that
32:50
Speaker 2: concern you? I mean, we're looking at you know, yields
32:52
Speaker 2: climbing across the curve and that's just got to be
32:56
Speaker 2: even more bad news for commercial real estate and probably
33:01
Speaker 2: building in general.
33:03
Speaker 7: Yeah, no doubt. I mean the ten year today is
33:06
Speaker 7: sort of a harbring dull where we're going. There's no
33:08
Speaker 7: doubt in my mind about that, and I think the
33:10
Speaker 7: FED raising the interest rates in November by twenty five
33:13
Speaker 7: basis points is not really material. It's psychological. It's more
33:17
Speaker 7: or less, you know, charming out the fact that we're
33:19
Speaker 7: going to continue to raise interest rates, we continue to
33:22
Speaker 7: put stress on capital across the board, We're going to
33:25
Speaker 7: continue to create create a sense of instability in the
33:27
Speaker 7: financial markets. When you ever have instability and lack of predictability,
33:31
Speaker 7: you get problems at the end of the day. And
33:33
Speaker 7: I think what we need to do, We just need
33:35
Speaker 7: to take a deep breath, slow down, and give the
33:38
Speaker 7: real estate developers and the lenders out there time to
33:41
Speaker 7: solve these problems, because if they don't, these issues will
33:46
Speaker 7: become the taxpayers problems, not the real estate developers problems.
33:49
Speaker 7: And today that the real estate developers problems, the private
33:52
Speaker 7: equities problems, the shadow banking problems, but they're not the
33:55
Speaker 7: taxpayers and if we move too quickly, they will become
33:58
Speaker 7: the taxpayers problems. In addition, just to comment on what
34:01
Speaker 7: Joe Biden spoke about the three hundred thirty six thousand jobs,
34:04
Speaker 7: I think that was a very very powerful strong estimate.
34:09
Speaker 7: I mean, you know it blew past expectations of maybe
34:12
Speaker 7: one seventy out there. But at the end of the day,
34:15
Speaker 7: I think it's good news. But also there's I think
34:17
Speaker 7: concerning news behind all that. Okay, going forward, we've got
34:21
Speaker 7: a serious immigration problem in this country. I think everybody
34:24
Speaker 7: acknowledge it. My industry, real estate construction, we're in zero
34:27
Speaker 7: one on a point right now. We're not a three
34:29
Speaker 7: point six or three point seven percent. So if we
34:32
Speaker 7: don't solve for the immigration issue, okay, we don't bring
34:35
Speaker 7: more people into this country, it's going to be very
34:38
Speaker 7: difficult to grow our economy. And so to me, I
34:40
Speaker 7: stand firm and the fact that we need to focus
34:43
Speaker 7: on today how to put forth a solid immigration policy
34:46
Speaker 7: to prevent continuing escalation of wages which were seen across
34:50
Speaker 7: the board right now. And I think this wage escalation issue,
34:53
Speaker 7: unfortunately is not going to subside. And when you take
34:57
Speaker 7: a UAW, you take over the pilots, you take good healthcare.
35:00
Speaker 7: Right now at the Kaiser, this is systemic in our
35:03
Speaker 7: society today. In this health in this labor issue is
35:06
Speaker 7: going to continue to drive inflation higher over the next
35:09
Speaker 7: I think four or five quarters.
35:11
Speaker 1: How bad is that going to be? Commercial real estate loans.
35:14
Speaker 7: I think it's gonna be very, very challenging. As I
35:16
Speaker 7: talked about this idea of price discovery, people don't know
35:19
Speaker 7: what assets are worth it at this particular point in time.
35:21
Speaker 7: I just think is a point out we need time
35:24
Speaker 7: to allow people to get accustomed to the current economic
35:27
Speaker 7: and financial environment and give these banks and lenders and
35:31
Speaker 7: it borrows more time to work these things out. If
35:34
Speaker 7: we don't, I think at the end of the day,
35:36
Speaker 7: it could be very very material to overall economy on
35:39
Speaker 7: a going for a basis.
35:41
Speaker 1: All right, John, thanks so much for if you mention.
35:42
Speaker 1: Really appreciate getting your perspective there. John Fish, he's the
35:46
Speaker 1: CEO of Suffolk Construction. He's also the chair of the
35:49
Speaker 1: Real Estate round Table talking about commercial real estate. It's
35:51
Speaker 1: going to be some challenging. As John said, next four
35:54
Speaker 1: to five quarters, price discovery is going to be a
35:56
Speaker 1: big thing. What is that building that's for sale on
35:58
Speaker 1: forty six Street and third app We know what it
36:00
Speaker 1: sold for, you know ten years ago, what's it going
36:03
Speaker 1: to sell for today? And what that means? Who knows?
36:06
Speaker 1: And what's the mean for the lenders and the equity
36:08
Speaker 1: holders there? That's a big issue.
36:09
Speaker 5: You're listening to the tape cans are live program Bloomberg
36:13
Speaker 5: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the
36:16
Speaker 5: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com.
36:18
Speaker 4: And the Bloomberg Business App.
36:20
Speaker 5: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
36:22
Speaker 5: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg.
36:26
Speaker 1: Eleven thirty jobs number came in today, three hundred and
36:31
Speaker 1: thirty six thousand new jobs. You're heard from President Biden.
36:34
Speaker 1: One of the questions is who's getting these jobs? What
36:36
Speaker 1: types of industries? Is it evenly distributed across this economy.
36:41
Speaker 1: Let's check in with our next guest, Javier Paulo Mades.
36:45
Speaker 1: He is the president and CEO of US Hispanic Business Council,
36:49
Speaker 1: and we appreciate Jabier spending a couple of minutes with us.
36:53
Speaker 1: Talk to us about the Hispanic community out there. Javier,
36:57
Speaker 1: how are they participating in what is in a remarkably
37:01
Speaker 1: strong labor market.
37:03
Speaker 9: Yeah, it's been great, you know, you know, what a
37:07
Speaker 9: pleasant surprise, nearly three hundred and forty thousand jobs. You know,
37:11
Speaker 9: in August we saw what I thought were kind of
37:14
Speaker 9: pre pandemic growth rates at it, you know, but it
37:18
Speaker 9: proved this month proved that, you know, certainly we're still
37:23
Speaker 9: adding jobs and there's some real bright spots as you mentioned,
37:26
Speaker 9: not only for the American small business community, but specifically
37:30
Speaker 9: for the Hispanic community and the Hispanic small business community.
37:34
Speaker 9: The growth, as you mentioned, in the private sector was
37:37
Speaker 9: led by leisure and hospitality, healthcare, professional services. I think
37:41
Speaker 9: leisure and hospitality added some ninety six thousand jobs. Hispanics
37:45
Speaker 9: are about twenty five percent of that workforce. Professional services
37:50
Speaker 9: added about thirty thousand jobs, Hispanics for about twenty percent
37:53
Speaker 9: of that workforce, and then healthcare added about forty thousand jobs,
37:57
Speaker 9: and Hispanics are about fifty percent of that workforce. So
38:00
Speaker 9: for the American small business community, great for the Hispanic
38:03
Speaker 9: business community, Suffice it to say, you know, Hispanics had
38:06
Speaker 9: had a role to play, and you know, I'm delighted
38:09
Speaker 9: at the news.
38:10
Speaker 2: So according to the Small Business Association, five million, there
38:15
Speaker 2: are five million or near that Hispanic owned businesses in
38:19
Speaker 2: the US, and according to Stanford, Hispanics have created eighty
38:24
Speaker 2: percent of all the net new businesses in basically the
38:27
Speaker 2: last decade.
38:28
Speaker 1: Actually it was twenty eleven to twenty twenty one.
38:30
Speaker 9: So there's some four point five million Hispanic owned firms
38:33
Speaker 9: in the country that collectively contribute just north of eight
38:37
Speaker 9: hundred billion dollars to the American economy. They run the gamut,
38:40
Speaker 9: you know, from every industry in size and business model.
38:43
Speaker 9: You can imagine. And yeah, about eighty percent of the
38:47
Speaker 9: net new businesses that were created were created by a
38:50
Speaker 9: Latino in this country over the last decade. So you know,
38:53
Speaker 9: we're creating new businesses at a rate of three to
38:56
Speaker 9: one when compared to the general market. And you know,
38:59
Speaker 9: I I think we're at the beginning of this thing.
39:02
Speaker 9: It's only getting better, it's only getting stronger. According to
39:07
Speaker 9: the Department of Labor between the years twenty twenty and
39:11
Speaker 9: twenty thirty, So we're in it now. According to Labor,
39:14
Speaker 9: between twenty twenty and twenty thirty, some seventy eight percent
39:18
Speaker 9: of new entrants, net new entrance into the workforce will
39:22
Speaker 9: be Hispanic. Imagine that seventy eight percent of the net
39:25
Speaker 9: new entrance into the American workforce will be Hispanic.
39:28
Speaker 2: Well, and we were talking earlier with Tom Gimble, who
39:31
Speaker 2: runs the LaSalle Staffing Network out of Chicago, and he
39:36
Speaker 2: was saying, one of the biggest problems in the labor
39:40
Speaker 2: market these days is that we don't have enough immigration,
39:44
Speaker 2: that we need more immigration, you know, from.
39:48
Speaker 1: All of our borders. How do you stop that.
39:53
Speaker 2: Issue from being conflated with the illegal immigration that we
39:59
Speaker 2: see rugs coming in, people dying in the desert, like
40:02
Speaker 2: that whole negative story. How do you separate out, you know,
40:06
Speaker 2: the positive from the negative.
40:07
Speaker 9: You know, certainly you know it is a contentious issue,
40:11
Speaker 9: no no, no question, Administration after administration, Republican Democrat has
40:15
Speaker 9: kick this can down the road, which is why we
40:17
Speaker 9: find are some of the situation we're in now. Clearly
40:20
Speaker 9: there is a crisis on the border. We need to
40:22
Speaker 9: deal with that, We need to keep the bad actors out.
40:25
Speaker 9: But to pretend that America doesn't need immigrant labor is
40:30
Speaker 9: disingenuous at best. I think our elected officials have a
40:34
Speaker 9: responsibility to parse this thing out and look at it
40:38
Speaker 9: from an economic perspective. At the United States Hispanic Business Council,
40:42
Speaker 9: and we're the leading advocate for America's small Hispanic small
40:45
Speaker 9: business community, and we have always believed that immigration reform
40:49
Speaker 9: is an economic imperative. I mean, if you look at
40:53
Speaker 9: the agricultural sector alone, the last time I was on BLUEMBERG.
40:57
Speaker 9: I think it was I mentioned that that sector is
41:01
Speaker 9: seventy three percent immigrant labor. And in that sector alone
41:06
Speaker 9: last year we basically destroyed ten million tons, not ten
41:12
Speaker 9: million pounds, ten million tons of fruits and vegetables and
41:18
Speaker 9: unharvested fields because we simply didn't have the immigrant labor
41:23
Speaker 9: to work the industry. So it is an important issue,
41:28
Speaker 9: important enough for the continued well being of the American
41:32
Speaker 9: economy that we should deal with it honestly.
41:34
Speaker 1: So let me ask you, Javier, as the CEO of
41:37
Speaker 1: the US Hispanic Business Council, what do you believe is
41:39
Speaker 1: proper immigation policy? And you've got it full thirty seconds.
41:43
Speaker 9: You know, we need to start with worker visas right
41:45
Speaker 9: off the bat. We need to increase the worker visas
41:48
Speaker 9: both from the you know, the high tech sector all
41:51
Speaker 9: the way down to skilled labor. The Dignity Act is
41:55
Speaker 9: a very good start. We should look at that as
41:57
Speaker 9: a starter, and we need to frankly come to together
42:00
Speaker 9: both both parties, both sides of the aisle, to find
42:03
Speaker 9: a workable solution for the American people, the American economy.
42:07
Speaker 1: All right, Javier, thank you so much. We appreciate it certainly,
42:09
Speaker 1: certainly a very contentious issue as we speak right now
42:14
Speaker 1: in Washington and on the borders. But again, you put
42:17
Speaker 1: that in the context of a very well and I
42:18
Speaker 1: think they're two separate issues, right.
42:20
Speaker 2: I mean, you have the illegal immigration story, and then
42:25
Speaker 2: you've got the legal immigration. We need to bring in
42:29
Speaker 2: more legal immigrants to do work in this country, and
42:34
Speaker 2: a lot of them obviously are Hispanic, a lot of
42:36
Speaker 2: them are going to be German, a lot of them
42:38
Speaker 2: are going to be French. Maybe not French, but a
42:41
Speaker 2: lot of different countries, you know.
42:43
Speaker 1: Yep, absolutely a big issue. Javier Palomeris, he is a
42:46
Speaker 1: president and CEO of the US Hispanic Business Council, join
42:49
Speaker 1: us to give us his unique perspective.
42:52
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can
42:55
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42:59
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Speaker 2: Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three.
43:05
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43:08
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43:10
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