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Mo Spending, Mo Deficit | Political Capital Daily · Political Capital with Rob Shaw

• 0:00
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  Speaker 2: It's Tuesday, September 15th, 2026, and this is Political Capital Daily.
• 1:00
  Speaker 3: Well, good morning.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: I have wrestled control of the show back from that
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: pesky AI chatbot yesterday. Apologies for all concerned on that.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: I have turned on two-factor authentication for the show from
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  Speaker 1: now on to prevent against hacks, which means joining me
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: this morning, Jillian Oliver. I have to ask if you
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  Speaker 1: really are who you are, a longtime green strategist from
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Political Capital Prime.
• 1:21
  Speaker 3: Are you real?
• 1:23
  Speaker 4: If I wasn't, would I tell you?
• 1:25
  Speaker 5: Nuts.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: This two-factor authentication doesn't work. We could all just be
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: AI bots. The end of the world is on us.
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Perhaps the world's already ended and this is just a
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: simulation of what it used to be. In that case,
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: I would just quit my job and run out into
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  Speaker 1: the street naked.
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, maybe it's not such a bad thing.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: At this point. Yeah, anyways, no AI topics today.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: I can only take so much of that because my
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: brain starts to fritz out a little bit when you
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: examine the unsteady nature of humanity's future. So we'll just
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: focus on BC politics, which is totally steady and totally
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: graspable and understandable and in no way overwhelming and twirling
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  Speaker 1: into the abyss. But at least today, not. Here's a
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: rundown of what's happening on the political agenda for today.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: The health minister, Ravi Kalan, is up for an announcement
• 2:16
  Speaker 1: about health services, innovative health services. This morning, 10.30 at
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Vancouver General Hospital's Jim Patterson Pavilion. He'll probably get a
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: bunch of questions about the general state of the healthcare
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: sector right now, and I would imagine he may also
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: get a question about a story that was in the
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: National Post today saying that there's a new study out
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: pointing to the decriminalization policy that the NDP government tried
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  Speaker 1: and the fact it did not lead, according to this
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  Speaker 1: study in a peer-reviewed journal, to any fewer deaths or
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  Speaker 1: even overdoses in the time that we, the short time
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  Speaker 1: that B.C. flirted with decriminalization. So maybe he'll get asked
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: that question for some sort of answer to that.
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  Speaker 3: I don't know. It's an interesting study, Jillian. It's kind of,
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: we forgot about decrim.
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  Speaker 1: Low those many years ago, like two years ago, but
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  Speaker 1: I'll be interested to hear what government has to say
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  Speaker 1: about that. Also today, the second day, the Union BC
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  Speaker 1: Municipalities Convention in Vancouver, one of the big sessions today,
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  Speaker 1: the plenary session on understanding decriminalization the Declaration of Rights
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: of Indigenous Peoples Act in BC. That'll be a hotly
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: attended and discussed, I think, plenary session. I remember last
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: year's on the Cowichan title ruling with some experts. And
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: I know last night there was a Northern Beat event
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  Speaker 1: that had several experts in the Aboriginal title and DRIPA issue.
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  Speaker 1: But Jillian, I imagine a lot of eyes in local
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: government are turning to the issue of DRIPA and what
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: the government might be doing and how to understand how
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: it might affect them in an election year.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah.
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  Speaker 6: Since the last UBCM, there's been new court cases out.
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  Speaker 6: And so municipalities are really sorting through what the implications are,
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  Speaker 6: could be very wide reaching and kind of just trying
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  Speaker 6: to get a common baseline of understanding. UBCM is all
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  Speaker 6: about local governments working together, coming to consensus and passing
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  Speaker 6: motions that they can use their collective power to push
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  Speaker 6: the province on. The province is currently looking at how
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  Speaker 6: it can revise DRIPA after failing to do so last session.
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  Speaker 6: They said they would go back to the table with
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  Speaker 6: First Nations and try to get some resolutions. And so
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  Speaker 6: municipalities and local governments are having interest in that too.
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  Speaker 6: So this is also a chance for them to sort
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  Speaker 6: of get on the same page about that.
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  Speaker 1: We were all spent the last year wondering what Premier
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: David Eby is going to do to fix DRIPA. said
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  Speaker 1: he'd have some type of solution this fall, hasn't come
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  Speaker 1: before UBCM, so this session on understanding it will occur before,
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  Speaker 1: or if even we ever see some type of solution
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  Speaker 1: from the Premier. On that, UBCM goes all week, and
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: also on the agenda today, the second day of the
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  Speaker 1: Canada Investment Summit in Toronto, Premier David Eby there with meetings,
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  Speaker 1: pretty successful first day, I guess, with Ottawa trying to
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  Speaker 1: get to that one trillion mark of investment in the
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: Canadian economy, and making some big announcements, including investors who
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: put more than a billion dollars into the economy. Going forward,
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  Speaker 1: we'll get priority access to a program that offers binding
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: decisions from the Canada Revenue Agency on the advanced income
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: tax program, so they'll know the kind of taxes that
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: they're facing. And also we saw Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe
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  Speaker 1: and Bell Canada announce.
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  Speaker 3: A $ 52.
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  Speaker 1: Billion data centre, which takes the crown from BC's LNG
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  Speaker 1: Canada Phase.
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  Speaker 3: 1 as the.
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  Speaker 1: uh, most expensive private sector project in Canadian history, which
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  Speaker 1: was around 40 billion. So now Saskatchewan has seized that
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  Speaker 1: title belt away from us, not even phase two of
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  Speaker 1: LNG Canada, which is around 30 billion. It hasn't even
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  Speaker 1: been approved, uh, could reach that. So Saskatchewan champions in the,
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  Speaker 1: although it's a data center. So, I mean, like Jillian,
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  Speaker 1: that kind of sucks. No offense to data centers, because
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  Speaker 1: it's not like, it's not, it's not really, it's, Well,
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  Speaker 1: I guess anyways, it's not that great. I don't think
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  Speaker 1: it'd eat up all the water and doesn't generate a
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  Speaker 1: lot of jobs.
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  Speaker 3: Doesn't seem, I.
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  Speaker 1: Guess that's the economy today.
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  Speaker 3: It's just data centers.
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  Speaker 4: Yeah. AI bots.
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  Speaker 6: I mean, I think the federal government put out a
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  Speaker 6: big strategy earlier this year about it. They really want
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  Speaker 6: to get ahead of the economic opportunities. And so Um,
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  Speaker 6: I'm sure that the prime minister is happy to have
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  Speaker 6: a willing province cause there's a lot of local opposition, um,
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  Speaker 6: in more populated areas in particular, one, one in Nanaimo
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  Speaker 6: facing opposition and another in Vancouver, there's been big protests
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  Speaker 6: about here.
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  Speaker 4: So it'd be interesting to see how it plays out
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  Speaker 4: over there.
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  Speaker 5: Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: It, uh, not, not a huge interest in British Columbia
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  Speaker 1: with the government capping the energy that data centers could use. So,
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  Speaker 1: You don't expect very many more other than the one
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  Speaker 1: that Telus has squeaked through for approval in the future. Okay,
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: let's take a quick break. We'll come back with some
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: other topics just after this. Well, Political Capital Daily Free.
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  Speaker 3: Back to the show.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: All right, the big item on the political agenda yesterday,
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  Speaker 1: Finance Minister Josie Osborne delivering her first budget update, the
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: first quarter financial results. Sorry, I'll edit that out.
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  Speaker 4: Is that a bit?
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  Speaker 3: Everything's a bit. Everything is a bit now. When you
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: run in a volume business, everything's a bit. Just leave
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  Speaker 3: it in.
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  Speaker 4: Rob's allergic to quarterly updates.
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  Speaker 3: Oh, actually, you know what? Fine. We will leave that in.
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  Speaker 1: This is Just the way it goes, folks. Early morning podcast.
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  Speaker 1: You might remember that the February budget forecast a record-setting $ 13. 3
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  Speaker 1: billion deficit, a hair-puckering number, if hair could pucker, and
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  Speaker 1: now it is $ 13. 8 billion in the first quarter. Financial
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  Speaker 1: update as things get worse. The quick rundown here. There
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: was a big mistake in natural gas forecasting. There's lower housing,
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  Speaker 1: property transfer tax revenue. There's higher wildfire fighting costs, and
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: there was higher tax credits. And that was not entirely
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: balanced out by some higher income tax revenue and some
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  Speaker 1: natural resource revenue in the areas of coal, copper and gold.
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  Speaker 3: Amongst other things. Here's the finance minister with her take.
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  Speaker 2: Again, if we backed out the $ 614 million extra for
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  Speaker 2: wildfire recovery, we had a different wildfire season than we
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  Speaker 2: would have seen a different number for the final deficit.
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  Speaker 2: But of course, British Columbians will always expect us and
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  Speaker 2: we will always be there to defend them and their
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  Speaker 2: properties in the time of wildfire. So these are the
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  Speaker 2: things that can happen. And as we saw this year,
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  Speaker 2: they certainly did with the summer that we had.
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  Speaker 1: If we'd had a different wildfire season, we could have
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  Speaker 1: seen a different number for the final deficit. And if
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  Speaker 1: my grandmother had wheels, she'd have been a wagon, to
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  Speaker 1: quote Chief Engineer Montgomery Scott.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess so.
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  Speaker 1: I guess if we had a different wildfire season, although
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  Speaker 1: we pay our wildfire bill out of contingencies every year.
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  Speaker 3: That I've covered.
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  Speaker 1: Uh bc politics i'm not i'm really sure there's five
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  Speaker 1: billion in contingency still lying around that haven't been touched
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  Speaker 1: by government i'm not really sure i understand that explanation
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: but from the finance minister but jillian's before i get
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  Speaker 1: to you why don't i play uh opposition conservative critic
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: gavin do an independent critic peter millibar and their takes here.
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  Speaker 5: This is obviously a very scary update, which suggests that
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  Speaker 5: things are continuing to slide under this NDP government. There
• 10:26
  Speaker 5: are obviously some headwinds coming from outside the province, but
• 10:32
  Speaker 5: it is years of economic and fiscal mismanagement that have
• 10:35
  Speaker 5: left us in this precarious place.
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  Speaker 7: Well, the president might be blamed for some economic slowdown,
• 10:41
  Speaker 7: but he can't be blamed for the fact the government
• 10:43
  Speaker 7: can't control their own spending. And so we're not just
• 10:46
  Speaker 7: seeing spending increase in this fiscal update. We're seeing it
• 10:50
  Speaker 7: already being projected to be higher than they thought for
• 10:52
  Speaker 7: next year and the following year in the three-year fiscal plan.
• 10:55
  Speaker 7: That lies directly at the feet of this government and
• 10:57
  Speaker 7: their inability to contain their spending.
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  Speaker 1: A little bit of Trump blaming from the finest Mr. Gillian,
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  Speaker 1: but also what looks to be a kind of baked
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  Speaker 1: in structural deficit now that is, uh, recurring each and
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: every year.
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  Speaker 3: Did, uh, what jumped out at you on the first
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: quarter financial numbers?
• 11:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
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  Speaker 6: I mean, I think that the biggest story obviously is the, um, massive,
• 11:19
  Speaker 6: like half a billion dollar calculation on LNG royalties.
• 11:23
  Speaker 4: Um, obviously that's a huge number.
• 11:25
  Speaker 6: Um, and it's coming at a bad time when the
• 11:28
  Speaker 6: government has basically had no good news all year. Um,
• 11:33
  Speaker 6: And I think though it also is especially bad because
• 11:37
  Speaker 6: their whole strategy to get back on track is to
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  Speaker 6: show people that they are building these big projects.
• 11:42
  Speaker 4: These big projects are what are going to save us.
• 11:44
  Speaker 6: And if we can only keep them in long enough
• 11:46
  Speaker 6: to sort of get them done, then we're all going
• 11:49
  Speaker 6: to be okay. And they're going to be able to
• 11:51
  Speaker 6: turn the ship around on the finances. But this really
• 11:55
  Speaker 6: undercuts that narrative because it's so hard to take what
• 11:58
  Speaker 6: they're saying as truth when they're not able to make
• 12:01
  Speaker 6: accurate calculations about how profitable they are.
• 12:04
  Speaker 4: I mean, and then I.
• 12:05
  Speaker 6: Think it's hard to ignore the tie between saying that
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  Speaker 6: investing in subsidizing fossil fuels is what's going to save
• 12:13
  Speaker 6: us when the reason why we are in a bigger
• 12:15
  Speaker 6: hole by the finance minister's own words is because of
• 12:18
  Speaker 6: wildfires caused by climate change. So I think it's problematic.
• 12:23
  Speaker 6: Like it's, I mean, we've been talking about this on
• 12:26
  Speaker 6: the daily show and on our weekly show last week,
• 12:28
  Speaker 6: It's wild, I think, that the government is even considering
• 12:31
  Speaker 6: going to an election.
• 12:32
  Speaker 4: The only reason that they're sort of keeping.
• 12:34
  Speaker 6: Their head above water is because the opposition is in
• 12:37
  Speaker 6: such shambles right now.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: It's a great point, and it kind of leads me
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: on a side topic here, which is the ongoing all-candidates
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: debates in Abbotsford Mission, the by-election that's going on right
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: now for September 26th, where opposition conservative leader Carolyn Finlay
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: is trying to win a seat. And I have been
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: watching the two all candidates debates, Jillian. And I echo
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: your point there where sometimes I think we have forgotten
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: in the course of kind of watching the implosion of
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: the conservatives and the Trump reemergence, you know, making David
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: Eby put on his Salmo jacket and do a bunch
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: of one-liners, we've sort of forgotten how deep in the
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: glue this government is. And watching the by-election has been
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: fascinating because NDP's Pam Alexis has been out there delivering
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: testimonies the answers we usually get from government in question
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: period and from the premier and non-Trump times, and they
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: just are spectacularly bad. Like they land like a thud
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: in the real world. And I think it echoes what
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: you're saying is that this is a government in trouble, really.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: And these numbers and the finance updates show it again.
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: Massive trouble with no path.
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: Out of the deficits.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: I asked the finance minister, are we going to get
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: On a path to balance, as David Eby promised in
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: 2024 in the campaign, he's like, no.
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: Basically was the takeaway of that.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: And we get these occasional glimpses of how bad things
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: actually are for a government nine years in power with
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: no money to spend and a giant carton of baggage
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: is lugging around.
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: And it's a, I don't know.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: I just, today reminded me a little bit of that,
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: watching that all candidates debate, seeing these numbers and going,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: oh yeah, without Trump, And without the implosion in the Conservatives,
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: this would be a government where we would be counting
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: down the days that David Eby has as premier before
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: he's overthrown within his own caucus, let alone whether he
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: can go to a snap election. And it's amazing how
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: that mathematics have changed when the fundamentals underneath it haven't, really,
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: to your point.
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, we went on break in August.
• 14:45
  Speaker 6: And before that, we were talking about just that, you know,
• 14:49
  Speaker 6: the internal vulture starting to circle for EB and that
• 14:52
  Speaker 6: the conservatives were anticipating that he wasn't going to be
• 14:55
  Speaker 6: their opponent in the next election. Um, and then we
• 14:58
  Speaker 6: came back from break talking about a whole other thing,
• 15:00
  Speaker 6: but I agree. I think with respect to the by-election
• 15:03
  Speaker 6: so far, so much of the discussion has been about
• 15:05
  Speaker 6: how this is so do or die for Carrie Lynn Finley.
• 15:07
  Speaker 6: But I think that the government's performance, um, is also
• 15:11
  Speaker 6: going to be very revealing and that there is quite
• 15:13
  Speaker 6: a bit at stake because if they can't capitalize on
• 15:16
  Speaker 6: this moment politically, um, then how are they going to
• 15:21
  Speaker 6: turn things around in, uh, in assuming that the other
• 15:25
  Speaker 6: parties start to get their stuff together.
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: And it's a tough one for the NDP to read too,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: because you know, like Abbotsford mission is not a traditional
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: riding that they should have won. Uh, they did win
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: in the 2020 snap election, but traditionally it has gone center, right. And, and,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: to analyze their performance in it if they don't win
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: and try to take lessons from it that may or
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: may not be distorted by Trump or may or may
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: not be because of their record or may or may
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: not be because of Carrie Lynn Finley. I'm not sure
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: what they're going to be able to learn from this
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: that would influence their decision to go early if they
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: decide to do that.
• 15:59
  Speaker 3: So there's a lot of.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: There is actually a lot of risk on the NDP
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: side here in the calculation they're making. Despite us sometimes,
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: I think, kind of overanalyzing it to the point of
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: it being like, well, you know, if they don't go...
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: If they don't go now, when are they going to go?
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: And maybe going now is just as bad.
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: But some of the numbers in the budget are just
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: so awful. Just so, like, just eye-wateringly awful. And there
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: is no progress on the expenditure management. There is no
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: progress on anything that has sort of been said to
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: slow the trajectory that you just think, whew, man.
• 16:37
  Speaker 3: This is a government in trouble.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: Anyways, that was my tangent from first quarter public accounts,
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: first quarter financial update. I just want to tack on
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: one more subject here, Jillian, because we have to sort
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: of chronicle this every day. Another Pied Piper to the
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: Peter party joined yesterday, which is the seventh MLA, Boundaries
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: to Milka Means, Donegal Wilson joining the party. Wilson saying
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: that this group She's determined, can deliver on the promises
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: in the next election.
• 17:08
  Speaker 3: She says it's a credible alternative to.
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: The NDP that British Columbians can choose if and when
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: we go to the polls. So that's seven of nine
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: independent MLAs have joined the Peter Party, the Peter Patton Party,
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: depending on how many Ps you want to pop this
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: early in the morning. And I guess that's momentum. I mean,
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: that's a pretty big party now. Seven, perhaps eight, perhaps
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: nine MLAs going into the fall session of the legislature
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: as a team.
• 17:34
  Speaker 6: Or more.
• 17:35
  Speaker 5: Mm-hmm.
• 17:37
  Speaker 6: And it reminded me also that Milibar got a lot
• 17:40
  Speaker 6: of caucus support when he was running for leader. He
• 17:42
  Speaker 6: did not do well with members in the final vote,
• 17:45
  Speaker 6: but he did get a lot.
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: Of caucus endorsements.
• 17:48
  Speaker 6: And that's a really clear contrast, given that the Conservatives
• 17:53
  Speaker 6: now have two successive leaders that have really struggled to
• 17:56
  Speaker 6: earn the respect of their caucus and to manage them
• 17:59
  Speaker 6: and keep them together. It's going to be so interesting
• 18:02
  Speaker 6: to see what this looks like in the legislature, how
• 18:05
  Speaker 6: they're able to jockey for time and how they're going
• 18:08
  Speaker 6: to use it. I was struck by Millibar's response to
• 18:12
  Speaker 6: the fiscal update and just how substantial and serious he is.
• 18:17
  Speaker 6: And it reminded me of the show that we did
• 18:19
  Speaker 6: when McInnes and Wilson first sat as independents and just
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: how sort of like thoughtful and just sort of like
• 18:26
  Speaker 6: regular sane people they sound. compared to the stuff coming
• 18:30
  Speaker 6: from the conservative leader and her staff, which sound a
• 18:33
  Speaker 6: lot more like an AI chatbot trained on true social posts.
• 18:37
  Speaker 6: They just, I think they do have a chance to
• 18:41
  Speaker 6: build some more momentum as we come into the session
• 18:43
  Speaker 6: and people are looking for senior alternatives to the status quo.
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: It's going to be quite a session, depending on how
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: this all goes. And that's assuming that more people don't
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: leave between now and I should know when the session starts.
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: But look, tomorrow I'll know when the session starts. But
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: right now, this early in the morning, I don't know.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: It's October the insert number here. Anyways, it'll all change
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: before then. And we will update you tomorrow. Okay, Jillian,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: thanks so much for being here, as always, so early
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: in the morning.
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: My pleasure.
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: And thank you to the listeners for getting up, making
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: Political Capital Daily part of your morning routine. We'll be
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: back tomorrow with all the latest here.
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: Until then, see you then.