Latest / Toadstool Sports / Marlins/Braves MLB + WNBA + NFL Preseason Best Bets Sunday 8/10/25
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
- 0:05Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
- 0:08Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
- 0:11Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
- 0:14Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
- 0:17Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
- 0:20Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing, two
- 0:24Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
- 0:28Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
- 0:33Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
- 0:37Speaker 1: reached into pink. Actually, I'm going to burn my browins
- 0:41Speaker 1: hat man, I don't know what is going on with
- 0:43Speaker 1: the bruins arch hape? Is that what it is? I
- 0:46Speaker 1: don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think who
- 0:50Speaker 1: even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
- 0:53Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
- 0:55Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I.
- 0:58Speaker 2: Could possibly have, Back with few as I always am
- 1:02Speaker 2: until I die at least oh and two yesterday and
- 1:06Speaker 2: yesterday did not go well for me. Own five the
- 1:09Speaker 2: worst month that I've ever had in my eighteen years
- 1:13Speaker 2: doing this.
- 1:13Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
- 1:15Speaker 1: To the slumperies, the slump discontinuous, the slump continues. Somebody
- 1:20Speaker 1: fucking kill me, please. I don't even know what I
- 1:24Speaker 1: should do at this point other than potentially end it all. Yes,
- 1:34Speaker 1: what's up? Everybody sowed back with you better off dead Sunday,
- 1:39Speaker 1: August tenth, two and zero on the show yesterday. So
- 1:42Speaker 1: there you go. Slump broken, I guess or whatever. I'm
- 1:45Speaker 1: on a nice little run, really, I think I'm on
- 1:47Speaker 1: a eight and four runs something like that. Kansas City
- 1:51Speaker 1: got the win there for us only by a score
- 1:54Speaker 1: of two to nothing, but that was a winner, and
- 1:56Speaker 1: I believe they were up one nothing at the end
- 1:58Speaker 1: of five, so if you went first five on that,
- 1:59Speaker 1: it was a winner. We also got the La Dodgers,
- 2:03Speaker 1: either first five or full game, either way, that was
- 2:06Speaker 1: a winner as well. They won nine to one, I think,
- 2:08Speaker 1: and I think they were up three nothing at the
- 2:09Speaker 1: end of five, so I was wrong about the bullpens
- 2:12Speaker 1: in that one, but that was still an easy win
- 2:13Speaker 1: either way you did it. I'm only gonna have one
- 2:16Speaker 1: play today. I actually hate the card today. The Baseball
- 2:19Speaker 1: card is just messing with my mind. Man, I can't
- 2:22Speaker 1: figure it out. So I'll give one play and I
- 2:25Speaker 1: think it's going against the market. Read too, is my
- 2:28Speaker 1: hoodie draw strings are all hidden and they're all bunched up.
- 2:33Speaker 1: All right, let's get into today, man, We'll get into
- 2:37Speaker 1: the rundown for today, where maybe we'll have a dildo
- 2:40Speaker 1: throw today. Man, I think ben On and Line might
- 2:43Speaker 1: have taken the dildo props down. Who to zoom in here?
- 2:46Speaker 1: Because oops, yeah, I'm mistake. I don't know, man. I mean,
- 2:51Speaker 1: obviously they're trying to cut down on the dildo throwing
- 2:53Speaker 1: here in the WNBA, but it's still happening. And there
- 2:56Speaker 1: were actually two dildos at the game where the purple
- 2:59Speaker 1: one landed on the court. I guess there was a
- 3:01Speaker 1: green one that didn't make the court and it landed
- 3:04Speaker 1: behind one of the benches, so it didn't count for
- 3:06Speaker 1: any of the betting purposes. There might be one today.
- 3:09Speaker 1: I mean, we have four or five WNBA games, excuse me,
- 3:13Speaker 1: the first game up in the afternoon getting top billing
- 3:16Speaker 1: on ABC. Even though again Major League Baseball is going
- 3:19Speaker 1: on right now, man, probably more people want to watch
- 3:21Speaker 1: NFL preseason than WNBA, but WNBA gets ABC, so whatever, man,
- 3:28Speaker 1: they're really trying to push this shit. This is at
- 3:31Speaker 1: least a good matchup creating on the WNBA curve, which
- 3:36Speaker 1: isn't really saying much. Minnesota and the Liberty. This is
- 3:39Speaker 1: a finals rematch and it is potentially a finals preview.
- 3:44Speaker 1: Minnesota got revenge last time they played the Liberty. I
- 3:47Speaker 1: believe they won, so now this might be a little
- 3:49Speaker 1: bit of a revenge spot for the Liberty this time
- 3:51Speaker 1: Minnesota beat them at home. Liberty or at home this time.
- 3:56Speaker 1: Both teams are gonna show up for this game. Minnesota
- 3:58Speaker 1: is on a four game win streak coming into this one.
- 4:01Speaker 1: The Liberty just beat Dallas and now returning home from Dallas,
- 4:06Speaker 1: so it is a return home spot, but only from
- 4:08Speaker 1: one game away from home, so it's not really gonna
- 4:10Speaker 1: be like one of those return home spot distraction spots.
- 4:14Speaker 1: I don't think whereas Minnesota started a road trip. Both
- 4:18Speaker 1: teams are gonna show up. Is really like the long
- 4:21Speaker 1: and short of it. I don't have anything on this game.
- 4:23Speaker 1: Really a Liberty up from three and a half to four.
- 4:25Speaker 1: The revenge angle could be what kind of tilts the
- 4:28Speaker 1: scales in this one towards the liberty slightly. Probably a
- 4:31Speaker 1: slight lean there. Washington at Dallas. Dallas on a four
- 4:35Speaker 1: game losing straight. They have one of the worst records
- 4:37Speaker 1: in the WNBA, whereas Washington close to five hundred. Washington
- 4:42Speaker 1: still I think fighting for a playoff spot potentially, though
- 4:44Speaker 1: they've lost four games in a row as well. But
- 4:47Speaker 1: Washington's coming off a really close battle with Minnesota. I mean,
- 4:50Speaker 1: that's a big game, man, when you almost beat the
- 4:53Speaker 1: top team in the league on the road as a
- 4:55Speaker 1: big underdog. So Washington's coming off a real close game,
- 4:58Speaker 1: so I think they could be a bit hung ol here. Man,
- 5:00Speaker 1: It's a fourth straight road game, So I'm gonna lean
- 5:03Speaker 1: Dallas in this game. I might actually be the best
- 5:05Speaker 1: lean on the board today, really, which isn't saying much.
- 5:08Speaker 1: I don't. I'm not gonna give out a play in
- 5:09Speaker 1: the WNBA. I know my WNBA plays have been sporadic,
- 5:13Speaker 1: and I will say once again, I'm not actually betting
- 5:15Speaker 1: these right now, just to be a little bit more
- 5:18Speaker 1: risk averse right now, but I'm giving out plays as
- 5:20Speaker 1: if I were betting them, which would land me slightly
- 5:23Speaker 1: down on the year. By the way, entirely because March
- 5:26Speaker 1: was so bad. Though. Dallas, Yeah, they've lost four games
- 5:30Speaker 1: in a row, but at least they're staying at home.
- 5:32Speaker 1: And if you look at this line, Dallas has the
- 5:34Speaker 1: worst record, but their favorite from two to two and
- 5:36Speaker 1: a half to three. So looking at these records, I
- 5:39Speaker 1: think the public, if they look at this game, they're
- 5:40Speaker 1: gonna be thinking, how am I getting Washington as an
- 5:43Speaker 1: underdog here? Right? It looks too easy to take the
- 5:46Speaker 1: team with the better records an underdog, which is another
- 5:48Speaker 1: reason why I would lean to Dallas in that game.
- 5:51Speaker 1: You gotta make sure that Beckers is playing for Dallas,
- 5:54Speaker 1: their rookie who's one of the best players. She's game
- 5:58Speaker 1: time decision, but I think she probably he is playing
- 6:00Speaker 1: based on the fact that they are favored at home.
- 6:03Speaker 1: Atlanta at Phoenix in the Britney Griner battle, I guess
- 6:07Speaker 1: if you want to call it that Britney grinder, who
- 6:09Speaker 1: I believe is a man playing a women's sport, don't
- 6:12Speaker 1: nukee my channel. Phoenix has won three games in a row.
- 6:15Speaker 1: They're coming off a blow out win over Indiana, which
- 6:18Speaker 1: was without Caitlyn Clark, but big win for Phoenix. They
- 6:21Speaker 1: blew them out, so they might be feeling a bit
- 6:23Speaker 1: high on themselves winning by thirty five points. But I
- 6:26Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna overlook Atlanta or anything like that
- 6:28Speaker 1: because Atlanta has a good record. This is a matchup
- 6:32Speaker 1: between two teams with pretty good records here. They're both
- 6:34Speaker 1: in second place in the respective conferences. Phoenix lost to
- 6:38Speaker 1: Atlanta at Atlanta last time they played. Grinder played in
- 6:41Speaker 1: that game for Atlanta, and of course I'm saying it's
- 6:45Speaker 1: the Grinder battle because he slash, she slash. It used
- 6:50Speaker 1: to play for Phoenix and now it plays for Atlanta.
- 6:53Speaker 1: Although Grinder I think has been hurt, so we'll see
- 6:55Speaker 1: what the injury status is there. But Phoenix did lose
- 6:58Speaker 1: by twenty three points points in that game, so it
- 7:02Speaker 1: is a little bit of a revenge spot for Phoenix here.
- 7:05Speaker 1: Land on a four game win streak here, though besides Phoenix,
- 7:08Speaker 1: all the other three teams they won during that they
- 7:11Speaker 1: won against during that stretcher all pretty bad teams. Phoenix
- 7:14Speaker 1: is already up from two and a half to four
- 7:15Speaker 1: and a half here, so I think the money might
- 7:20Speaker 1: be coming in on the Phoenix side. I would not
- 7:21Speaker 1: disagree with that. I believe it's probably because of some
- 7:24Speaker 1: injury issues here. Grinder listed is out, although Listed is
- 7:28Speaker 1: returning on the tenth, but it seems like Grinder is
- 7:30Speaker 1: probably out based on this line being where it is.
- 7:33Speaker 1: Phoenix is good at home, by the way, eleven and
- 7:35Speaker 1: four compared to Atlanta nine and seven on the road,
- 7:38Speaker 1: so I would slightly lean to Phoenix in that one anyway. Andrew,
- 7:41Speaker 1: what's up man? Angels beat the Tigers. Yeah, not entirely
- 7:47Speaker 1: sure how that happened. I think I liked the over
- 7:50Speaker 1: in that game. But Charlie Morton, I mean, he had
- 7:52Speaker 1: one of his worst starts since being converted back into
- 7:57Speaker 1: a starter or if you want to call it that
- 7:59Speaker 1: way back earlier in the season when he was on Baltimore.
- 8:02Speaker 1: That started that he had yesterday was one of the
- 8:04Speaker 1: worst since then. Yes, dildo is gonna happen today, I
- 8:08Speaker 1: think Seattle at LA and which game will it happen.
- 8:12Speaker 1: I don't know though, because I don't think any of
- 8:13Speaker 1: these arenas have actually hosted a dildo throwing yet. Maybe
- 8:18Speaker 1: Phoenix has, I don't know, So maybe maybe it'll be
- 8:20Speaker 1: that game, the Grinder game. It only makes sense, right,
- 8:23Speaker 1: Seattle at La LA is still fighting out to make
- 8:27Speaker 1: a playoff spot. Of though both these teams are actually
- 8:29Speaker 1: close record wise, Seattle hasn't been playing well recently, so
- 8:32Speaker 1: they're only slightly ahead of LA in the standings, although
- 8:36Speaker 1: Seattle's the better team. LA just lost a three game
- 8:40Speaker 1: wins streak with a pretty ugly loss to Golden State
- 8:43Speaker 1: coming back home from that. They did beat Seattle on
- 8:46Speaker 1: the road the last time they played them, though, which
- 8:47Speaker 1: is not that long ago, since this is a little
- 8:49Speaker 1: bit of a road revenge spot for Seattle and Seattle
- 8:53Speaker 1: the way they've been sliding here. The lost four games
- 8:55Speaker 1: in a row, including that game against LA, which started
- 8:58Speaker 1: that four game slide there. They did lose to pretty
- 9:01Speaker 1: decent teams otherwise Indiana, Minnesota, and Vegas. They lost two
- 9:04Speaker 1: of those games at home, so they've actually lost their
- 9:07Speaker 1: last three home games. Are four home games actually, which
- 9:10Speaker 1: is kind of ridiculous, or actually yeah, no, yeah, four
- 9:15Speaker 1: or five maybe even whatever it is. They've lost way
- 9:18Speaker 1: too many. I think it's five. Actually, they've lost so
- 9:20Speaker 1: many games at home it's ridiculous. So maybe it's better
- 9:22Speaker 1: that Seattle just goes out on the road. Focus on basketball. Man.
- 9:26Speaker 1: LA has actually not been good at home. They're five
- 9:28Speaker 1: and nine at home, Seattle eight and seven on the road.
- 9:31Speaker 1: The Osbegers are telling you Seattle is the significantly better teams.
- 9:34Speaker 1: They're already up from three to four and a half here.
- 9:37Speaker 1: I would agree with Seattle in this game. It's a
- 9:39Speaker 1: little bit of a road revenge spot. Like I said,
- 9:42Speaker 1: that is the way that I would lean in that game.
- 9:43Speaker 1: I don't think there are any serious injuries as they're
- 9:46Speaker 1: skewing the lines there, so slight lean there as well.
- 9:50Speaker 1: Maybe I should be giving out some plays in the WNBA. Man,
- 9:52Speaker 1: I just can't quite get there. I think if I
- 9:55Speaker 1: were to rank these, I would say Dallas is probably
- 9:58Speaker 1: the strongest, then Seattle, then Phoenix, then New York and
- 10:03Speaker 1: then I don't know what I would do with this
- 10:04Speaker 1: Connecticut Vegas game. Man. Vegas starting to play better finally.
- 10:08Speaker 1: They won three games in a row, five of their
- 10:09Speaker 1: last six, only losing to Minnesota in that stretch, though
- 10:13Speaker 1: it was a really ugly loss to Minnesota. They just
- 10:16Speaker 1: beat Seattle. They're staying at home, Vegas battling for playoff
- 10:20Speaker 1: positioning right now. They do still have some decent star
- 10:24Speaker 1: power there on this Vegas team. They're not really as
- 10:26Speaker 1: bad as their record looks. Connecticut is absolutely as bad
- 10:29Speaker 1: as their record looks, if not worse. They're horrific. They're horrific.
- 10:32Speaker 1: They've lost three games in a row, playing a third
- 10:35Speaker 1: straight road game as well. Yeah, I mean Vegas. They're
- 10:40Speaker 1: down from thirteen to eleven though, and that's the issue, right,
- 10:42Speaker 1: I mean, you have to lay a ton of points
- 10:44Speaker 1: if you want Vegas in this game. It looks like
- 10:47Speaker 1: the number is pretty big there, so I would not
- 10:49Speaker 1: really want to do that. I don't know if i'd
- 10:50Speaker 1: say that I would lean to Connecticut necessarily, but that's
- 10:53Speaker 1: a game that I just would not touch at all.
- 10:56Speaker 1: Let's go to Major League Baseball here, I will have
- 10:59Speaker 1: one player in the MLB, And as you can see
- 11:01Speaker 1: in the title, it's not one of the interesting games
- 11:03Speaker 1: really Sunday, so we got a lot of afternoon games.
- 11:06Speaker 1: The teams are going to be traveling, starting a new
- 11:08Speaker 1: series and whatever. Kansas City at Minnesota. Kansas City got
- 11:12Speaker 1: the win for us on the show yesterday. This pitching matchup,
- 11:17Speaker 1: This does not look good Man Minnesota Kansas City. Kansas
- 11:21Speaker 1: City I would say still has the bullpen edge here.
- 11:24Speaker 1: The slightly better bullpen these four relievers just and in Minnesota
- 11:27Speaker 1: US three. But Kansas City is still the team with
- 11:30Speaker 1: a little bit to play for as well, which they're
- 11:32Speaker 1: still I believe, in the hunt for the playoffs or
- 11:35Speaker 1: as Minnesota basically knows that they're out of it. So
- 11:38Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of a motivational edge on KC.
- 11:42Speaker 1: And one of the guys they picked up at the
- 11:44Speaker 1: trade deadline is starting for them today, Ryan Bergere good
- 11:48Speaker 1: numbers on the season, two point eight three eram one
- 11:51Speaker 1: point one to one whip, although maybe it was skewed
- 11:53Speaker 1: a little bit because he was pitching in San Diego's
- 11:55Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park. San Diego got rid of him, probably
- 11:59Speaker 1: for reason too, right, I mean, well, they thought they
- 12:01Speaker 1: could improve their team. But San Diego is also I mean,
- 12:05Speaker 1: they're probably gonna be in the playoffs at this point.
- 12:07Speaker 1: It looks like so I don't know, man, So it's
- 12:10Speaker 1: not like San Diego is actually selling off with the
- 12:12Speaker 1: trade deadline bug are two point two ERA on the road,
- 12:14Speaker 1: Though pretty good on the road, his one start with
- 12:18Speaker 1: Kansas City was okay. At Fenway Park. He held the
- 12:21Speaker 1: Red Sox to two runs and five to two thirds,
- 12:24Speaker 1: only two strikeouts of two walks though not a good
- 12:27Speaker 1: strike out rate for him, not a good strike out
- 12:29Speaker 1: walk ratio, So I have my concerns with him. Although
- 12:31Speaker 1: Minnesota has never seen him before, so maybe they'll he'll
- 12:35Speaker 1: have a little bit of an edge over Minnesota's bats
- 12:37Speaker 1: just because they haven't seen it before. Neither of these
- 12:39Speaker 1: offenses are very good. Minnesota's is the slightly better one.
- 12:43Speaker 1: Jose Urana is pitching for the Twins here. He's a
- 12:47Speaker 1: guy that they just picked up. He's been on at
- 12:48Speaker 1: least three different teams this season alone, which is not
- 12:52Speaker 1: a good sign. Five point two to four ERA, one
- 12:54Speaker 1: point five to two WHIP on the season, not good
- 12:57Speaker 1: better at home three point three eighty RA. But it's
- 12:59Speaker 1: a mall sample size and I don't think he's yeah.
- 13:02Speaker 1: He has not even pitched at home with Minnesota yet,
- 13:05Speaker 1: he was on. Look at how many teams he's been
- 13:08Speaker 1: on this year. Man, he was on the Mats, Toronto, Dodgers,
- 13:13Speaker 1: and now Minnesota. So this Minnesota is his fourth team
- 13:16Speaker 1: that he's been on this season. Not a good sign.
- 13:19Speaker 1: He made one start with Minnesota, went four innings, gave
- 13:21Speaker 1: up two earned runs against Cleveland, who can't really hit
- 13:24Speaker 1: that well. It was an okay start. I don't expect
- 13:27Speaker 1: him to go deep into this game, though. I don't
- 13:29Speaker 1: really think either pitcher was gonna go that deep in
- 13:31Speaker 1: this game. His numbers against the Royals are actually bad.
- 13:34Speaker 1: In thirty seven at bats, two strikeouts, four walks, three
- 13:38Speaker 1: twenty four average allowed nine to eighty five ops. Perez
- 13:42Speaker 1: and Yeahs each have a home run off in Perez,
- 13:44Speaker 1: I think is setting some like catcher home run record
- 13:47Speaker 1: or something like that. So I don't trust your rain
- 13:51Speaker 1: at all. I probably would slightly lean to Kansas City
- 13:53Speaker 1: in this game, just because they have the unfamiliarity aspect
- 13:56Speaker 1: of this. But the lines moving towards Minnesota, they flip
- 13:59Speaker 1: from plus one four to minus one thirteen. Here fifty
- 14:02Speaker 1: six percent of the cash on Minnesota, sixty five percent
- 14:05Speaker 1: of tickets on Kansas City, So market Reid is same Minnesota.
- 14:09Speaker 1: I don't really agree with it, but I would probably
- 14:11Speaker 1: prefer playing an over in this game if I was
- 14:13Speaker 1: gonna do anything, because I think both starting pitchers are questionable.
- 14:17Speaker 1: They're probably not gonna last. I know both offenses aren't good,
- 14:20Speaker 1: but the bullpen situation could be a bit questionable as well.
- 14:24Speaker 1: Even though the total flip from nine and a half
- 14:26Speaker 1: juice to the over to juice to the under. We
- 14:27Speaker 1: see sixty seven percent of tickets on the over, eighty
- 14:30Speaker 1: eight percent of the cash on the over. That's the
- 14:33Speaker 1: way that I would lean, but it's kind of a
- 14:34Speaker 1: confusing game there, so that's a stay away. Cincinnati at Pittsburgh.
- 14:39Speaker 1: Pittsburgh lost yesterday, so Cincinnati was able to break to
- 14:44Speaker 1: They were able to avoid the sweep at least here,
- 14:47Speaker 1: although it's a four game series. Cincinnati had lost the
- 14:50Speaker 1: first two games of the series. As far as the
- 14:53Speaker 1: bullpens are concerned, Pittsburgh normally I would say has the
- 14:56Speaker 1: better bullpen, but they used four relief pitchers. Yes today
- 14:59Speaker 1: Cincinnati I believe use two. Yeah, So Cincinnati's bullpen is
- 15:03Speaker 1: the more rested bullpen here, so the bullpen edge kind
- 15:05Speaker 1: of gets negated. As far as whether Pittsburgh would have
- 15:08Speaker 1: any Cincinnati's the team with something to play for here's
- 15:11Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has definitely done as far as postseason aspiration. Cincinnati
- 15:16Speaker 1: I think could still make the playoffs, so it might
- 15:18Speaker 1: be a little bit of a motivational edge for Cincinnati.
- 15:21Speaker 1: And they have Zach Lttel on the mound, who they
- 15:23Speaker 1: got from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline. He's got
- 15:26Speaker 1: good numbers on the season three point four to six ERA,
- 15:30Speaker 1: one point one whip, slightly worse on the road, but
- 15:33Speaker 1: nothing significant. He's only made one start with Cincinnati and
- 15:37Speaker 1: it was a good one. He went seven innings against
- 15:39Speaker 1: a really hard hitting Cubs lineup, held them to three hits,
- 15:42Speaker 1: one run, eight strikeouts and two walks. Even though I
- 15:45Speaker 1: don't think Lttel is really that much of a strikeout guy,
- 15:47Speaker 1: that was a really good start for him. I usually
- 15:50Speaker 1: has good command, but a lot of times he gets
- 15:52Speaker 1: hit too hard, so that's kind of his issue. He
- 15:55Speaker 1: gives up too many hits typically. But that's a good start,
- 15:57Speaker 1: and the start before that, he held the Yankees scoreless
- 16:00Speaker 1: in five innings even though he walked four guys. That
- 16:02Speaker 1: was his last start with Tampa, so he is in
- 16:04Speaker 1: pretty good form right now. Only four pirate hitters have
- 16:08Speaker 1: seen him before, but they've actually hit him well sixteen
- 16:11Speaker 1: at bats though, so it's a really small sample size.
- 16:13Speaker 1: I don't know how much you can really take away
- 16:15Speaker 1: from this, but they do have a three seventy five
- 16:17Speaker 1: average and nine to forty four ohops off him. That
- 16:20Speaker 1: wouldn't be enough to like say that you shouldn't play
- 16:23Speaker 1: like Cincinnati in this game, though, I mean it's such
- 16:25Speaker 1: a small sample size. Mike Burrows, the young pitcher for
- 16:28Speaker 1: the Pirates, will be on the hill today. Four point
- 16:31Speaker 1: four to five ro one point two to nine whip.
- 16:33Speaker 1: Kind of mediocre numbers this year. A little bit better
- 16:36Speaker 1: at home, but not very significant. He wasn't pitching pretty
- 16:39Speaker 1: well for a decent stretch. There had one bad start
- 16:42Speaker 1: in the month of July, and other than that he
- 16:44Speaker 1: allowed two or fewer on runs going all the way
- 16:46Speaker 1: back into June. Started ramping up his pitch count a
- 16:49Speaker 1: little bit. I went six innings in two straight starts,
- 16:52Speaker 1: but then San Francisco, facing him a second time in
- 16:55Speaker 1: a row, really really got to him in his last outing,
- 16:58Speaker 1: which sucked for me because I gave out the under
- 17:01Speaker 1: in that game, and I believe I gave out the
- 17:02Speaker 1: under in Latel's game against the Cubs too, if I'm
- 17:05Speaker 1: not mistaken. In the first five, I think so that
- 17:07Speaker 1: was a winner. This one was a loser. Borrows had
- 17:10Speaker 1: a really bad start against a bad Giants lineup. Gave
- 17:13Speaker 1: up three on runs, six earned runs. Didn't make it
- 17:15Speaker 1: five innings, three walks, three strikeouts, So he's maybe sliding
- 17:20Speaker 1: out of form a little bit here. But Cincinnati has
- 17:22Speaker 1: not faced him yet. Because he is a rookie, I
- 17:25Speaker 1: believe so Borrows could have a little bit of an
- 17:27Speaker 1: edge in that department, just in that he's unfamiliar to
- 17:31Speaker 1: Cincinnati's hitters. I don't know exactly the way that I
- 17:35Speaker 1: would lean in this game, man, to be honest, I
- 17:38Speaker 1: was thinking maybe a first five under is potentially worth
- 17:41Speaker 1: a look here if you think Borrows will bounce back
- 17:43Speaker 1: and have like the unfamiliarity edge here. Because part of
- 17:46Speaker 1: the reason why I think he did really bad in
- 17:47Speaker 1: that second start against the Giants was because the Giants
- 17:50Speaker 1: had just seen him. But we see seventy six percent tickets,
- 17:53Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash on the over, I might
- 17:56Speaker 1: be slightly leaning first five under man. I don't know
- 17:58Speaker 1: if I trust the bullpens, but that might be the
- 18:00Speaker 1: lean Pittsburgh at minus one oh five, But the cash
- 18:04Speaker 1: looks like it's on the Cincinnati side. Eighty four percent tickets,
- 18:06Speaker 1: ninety six percent of the cash coming on at Cincinnati
- 18:09Speaker 1: if you're looking at starting pitcher form. Plus the fact
- 18:12Speaker 1: that Cincinnati's bullpen's more rested in Cincinnati has the motivation.
- 18:16Speaker 1: I wouldn't really disagree with that with the Cincinnati side.
- 18:19Speaker 1: That seems like a decent lean as well, and probably
- 18:22Speaker 1: would tell you could argue is a little bit more
- 18:24Speaker 1: trustworthy Houston at the Yankees. This looks like a big
- 18:27Speaker 1: time starting pitching mismatch in the favor of the Yankees. Cincinnati,
- 18:32Speaker 1: by the way, has the better offense over Pittsburgh too,
- 18:34Speaker 1: so that's another thing about that game. But yeah, Houston Yankees.
- 18:37Speaker 1: Here two teams that are probably on the way on
- 18:40Speaker 1: their way to making the playoffs. So though I kind
- 18:42Speaker 1: of want the Yankees to not make the playoffs, so
- 18:44Speaker 1: I don't think that's gonna happen. I think things are
- 18:46Speaker 1: gonna shake out where the Yankees are gonna wind up ahead.
- 18:49Speaker 1: I mean, the Yankees have one of the best offenses
- 18:51Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball. Still, their bullpen is questionable. Houston
- 18:55Speaker 1: has the better bullpen, but starting pitching, you gotta give
- 19:00Speaker 1: by the edge to the Yankees in this one. Houston
- 19:02Speaker 1: has a bullpen rest edge as well though, so Houston
- 19:04Speaker 1: does have a bullpen edge. But George Costanza Jason Alexander
- 19:09Speaker 1: pitching for the Astros here. I have to make that
- 19:11Speaker 1: joke every time. Man, he's pitching against the team that
- 19:15Speaker 1: he used to work for, the New York Yankees. What's
- 19:17Speaker 1: what's going on here? Man, he's playing He's pitching for
- 19:20Speaker 1: the Houston Astros. Now, man, oh my god, what was
- 19:23Speaker 1: what was the line? I remember when he was like
- 19:27Speaker 1: having all that fun, George having all that fun with
- 19:29Speaker 1: the Astros management, and then they were like, I forget,
- 19:33Speaker 1: they were like swearing at each other a lot. I
- 19:35Speaker 1: can't remember what was the worthy used. Man, I'm a
- 19:37Speaker 1: Seinfeldt fan to I don't know why. It's slipping my mind.
- 19:40Speaker 1: It's stroke brain here. You son of a bitch, I
- 19:43Speaker 1: think is what it was, right, Yeah, you son of
- 19:46Speaker 1: a bitch. So that's George Kastan's pitching for the Astros here.
- 19:50Speaker 1: Five point nine to seventy RRA, one point six to
- 19:53Speaker 1: one whip on the season, not good. Numbers a little
- 19:55Speaker 1: bit better on the road, better being relative five point
- 19:58Speaker 1: four e RA. Not good. His last outing was good
- 20:03Speaker 1: against Miami. He went six shutout inning, six strikeouts, one walk,
- 20:06Speaker 1: three hits allowed, but generally he has not been pitching well.
- 20:10Speaker 1: He came over from the A's and really he's only
- 20:14Speaker 1: a two like good starts I would say, where he
- 20:17Speaker 1: actually went six innings and had like a quality start,
- 20:19Speaker 1: I guess, is what you would say out of his
- 20:23Speaker 1: four or five starts that he's had with Houston so far.
- 20:26Speaker 1: Pitching against the Yankees in New York is not an
- 20:28Speaker 1: easy to ask. Obviously, they have eight at bats against
- 20:30Speaker 1: a million four hitters who have seen him before. Uh,
- 20:33Speaker 1: they have a two fifty average off him, no strikeouts,
- 20:36Speaker 1: two walks in a one thousand and one fifty ops,
- 20:38Speaker 1: including a judge home run off of him. So I'm
- 20:42Speaker 1: not ready to trust Alexander Man. I don't think he's
- 20:44Speaker 1: very good. Max Freed pitching for the Yankees obviously, is
- 20:48Speaker 1: good two point seven eighty R one point oh seven
- 20:51Speaker 1: whip better at home as well two point twenty nine
- 20:54Speaker 1: yarra al, though he hasn't been pitching as well over
- 20:56Speaker 1: the last like month month plus basically five point five
- 21:01Speaker 1: to four ERA in July and then pitched at Texas
- 21:04Speaker 1: last time, and he gave up four and runs in
- 21:06Speaker 1: five innings three walks, which is not that good. He's
- 21:08Speaker 1: walked three guys in three of his last four outings,
- 21:11Speaker 1: so Freed is pitching a little bit worse, which I
- 21:13Speaker 1: did say. He wouldn't be able to keep up like
- 21:16Speaker 1: such elite numbers over the course of an entire season,
- 21:20Speaker 1: so he is regressing a little bit. His numbers are
- 21:22Speaker 1: decent against Houston and seventy one at bats eleven to
- 21:25Speaker 1: three strikeout walk ratio two sixty eight to average six
- 21:28Speaker 1: to twenty one ohps. So I do think Freed will
- 21:31Speaker 1: do okay in this game, even though Houston's offense isn't
- 21:34Speaker 1: too bad. Lean, I mean, the Yankees has to be
- 21:39Speaker 1: the lean in this game, but you're paying up to
- 21:40Speaker 1: minus two hundred for them now for the full game,
- 21:43Speaker 1: at least seventy six percent tickets eighty seven percent of
- 21:45Speaker 1: the cash on them. Probably can't really trust their bullpen, though,
- 21:49Speaker 1: I think the best way to play this game, rather
- 21:52Speaker 1: than looking at a Yankee side, although you could go
- 21:54Speaker 1: Yankees run line first five innings and just focus on
- 21:57Speaker 1: what should be a starting pitching mismatch, I think you
- 21:59Speaker 1: could also play Yankees over their team total and maybe
- 22:02Speaker 1: get it done that way, though you do have to
- 22:04Speaker 1: worry about Houston's bullpen being pretty good. You could get
- 22:07Speaker 1: really granular with it and do Yankees over team total
- 22:09Speaker 1: first five innings, and then you need them just probably
- 22:12Speaker 1: get a couple of runs off Alexander. But yeah, I
- 22:16Speaker 1: mean those are my thoughts on that game. Not whole
- 22:19Speaker 1: a lot else to say about that. Miami Atlanta is
- 22:21Speaker 1: gonna be the game. I'm giving out a play on it.
- 22:23Speaker 1: You know, it's a real real doozy in that one.
- 22:26Speaker 1: So we'll wait on that. And I think I'm going
- 22:28Speaker 1: against the market read too. A's at Baltimore. Yeah, this
- 22:31Speaker 1: is a great game too, some games between teams that
- 22:34Speaker 1: are just totally out of at Baltimore won the first
- 22:36Speaker 1: game of the series and then lost eleven to three yesterday.
- 22:40Speaker 1: A's also saved their bullpen, although their bullpen probably isn't
- 22:44Speaker 1: even worth saving. That's how bad their bullpen is. Baltimore's
- 22:48Speaker 1: is also not very good and a little bit less rested,
- 22:51Speaker 1: So both bullpen's pretty bad in this game, as have
- 22:56Speaker 1: Luis Morales starting. He is a young pitcher, he's two,
- 23:00Speaker 1: he is a prospect. He throws hard, he throws upper nine.
- 23:04Speaker 1: He's on his fastball, but I know he really just
- 23:06Speaker 1: has a fastball, slider change up arsenal, so it seems
- 23:10Speaker 1: like he's destined to me more of a relief pitcher
- 23:13Speaker 1: that just comes in and throws hard for a little while,
- 23:16Speaker 1: because I don't think he has eno of a mix
- 23:17Speaker 1: to really fool major league hiders. His numbers at Triple
- 23:20Speaker 1: A this year are not really that good. He has
- 23:22Speaker 1: an era I believe above four in Triple A this
- 23:25Speaker 1: season and a whip of like one point two something,
- 23:28Speaker 1: mostly because he's wild. I strike out rated I think
- 23:31Speaker 1: is okay, but he walks a lot of guys. So
- 23:33Speaker 1: that's what we have going on with Morales. He's made
- 23:36Speaker 1: one appearance so far as his major league career. He
- 23:38Speaker 1: went two winnings and gave up a run on three hits,
- 23:40Speaker 1: didn't even strike anybody out, and had one walk against Arizona.
- 23:43Speaker 1: I mean Arizona pretty good lineup, but not the greatest
- 23:47Speaker 1: outing for Morales there. Baltimore, of course, has never seen
- 23:50Speaker 1: him before, so maybe he has a little bit of
- 23:52Speaker 1: an extra edge with Baltimore having not seen him before.
- 23:55Speaker 1: But we don't even know how deep Morales is gonna
- 23:56Speaker 1: go in this game, man. I mean, he might be
- 23:58Speaker 1: out of the game few innings, so we'll see about that.
- 24:02Speaker 1: And then cade Povich pitching for Baltimore. He is at
- 24:05Speaker 1: least somewhat more proven, although I don't know if he's
- 24:09Speaker 1: proven himself well. Five point twenty five ERA this year,
- 24:12Speaker 1: one point four or five WHIP. He's had some injuries
- 24:15Speaker 1: this year as well, but not good numbers really bad
- 24:18Speaker 1: at home as well, six point eight one ERA not
- 24:21Speaker 1: good at least coming off a decent start, I would
- 24:24Speaker 1: say against Philadelphia where he struck out seven. He did
- 24:27Speaker 1: a lot of four and runs though in five and
- 24:29Speaker 1: two thirds, but it was on the road against a
- 24:31Speaker 1: good lineup over the past four starts, which I believe
- 24:36Speaker 1: is actually yes, over the past four starts, but he
- 24:39Speaker 1: was injured for most of for all of July and
- 24:42Speaker 1: a bit of June as well, But the last four
- 24:45Speaker 1: starts of it, he actually racked up a twenty two
- 24:47Speaker 1: to four strikeout walk ratio. So he did a decent
- 24:50Speaker 1: command over that stretch. So his command looks like it's
- 24:54Speaker 1: still there at the very least, so it could be
- 24:56Speaker 1: worse for him. Only three A's hitters I've ever seen
- 24:59Speaker 1: him before, but they're two for three, often with two
- 25:02Speaker 1: om runs, one from Rooker and one from shuman U
- 25:06Speaker 1: six sixty seven not batting average three thousand and three
- 25:09Speaker 1: thirty three oh ps. I mean, it's such a small
- 25:12Speaker 1: sample size. I don't know how much you could really
- 25:13Speaker 1: take away from that, But I think what we're gonna
- 25:16Speaker 1: say here is that I think over is probably the
- 25:19Speaker 1: right way to go with this game. Both bullpens probably
- 25:22Speaker 1: gonna be in this game at some point fairly early on,
- 25:24Speaker 1: and they both suck totals up from nine to nine
- 25:28Speaker 1: juice to the over, So you want to get that
- 25:30Speaker 1: at over nine rather than nine and a half. Man,
- 25:32Speaker 1: if you do like the over in this one, looks
- 25:35Speaker 1: like the public is on that side as well, ninety
- 25:37Speaker 1: three percent of tickets, nine to nine percent of the
- 25:38Speaker 1: cash on the over, and it looks like there is
- 25:40Speaker 1: actually a significant market read on the Baltimore side too,
- 25:43Speaker 1: up from minus one ten to minus one twenty five,
- 25:46Speaker 1: seventy nine percent of the cash coming in on Baltimore,
- 25:48Speaker 1: fifty percent of tickets evenly split. I think it's just
- 25:51Speaker 1: because Morale is is such an unknown, Povich might actually
- 25:55Speaker 1: be able to outlast him at least and such a
- 25:58Speaker 1: small sample size with his matchup numbers, maybe povic recent
- 26:01Speaker 1: form not being that bad has something to do with
- 26:04Speaker 1: that as well. So strongest market indicators on the Baltimore
- 26:08Speaker 1: side and that one, So take from that what you will.
- 26:10Speaker 1: I guess if I was going to do that, I
- 26:12Speaker 1: might avoid the bullpens though, although I think both bullpens
- 26:15Speaker 1: are too avoid in that game, though, which is why
- 26:18Speaker 1: I think the over might be the better way to
- 26:20Speaker 1: look in that game. Anaheim at Detroit for Andrew here
- 26:23Speaker 1: Anahi beat Detroit yesterday seven to four, Detroit one, six
- 26:27Speaker 1: to five in the first game of the series. Detroit,
- 26:31Speaker 1: I would give them the offensive edge. It's not that significant,
- 26:34Speaker 1: but they're better at home as well, so give Detroit
- 26:37Speaker 1: the offensive edge. Detroit definitely has the bullpen edge. Anaeim's
- 26:41Speaker 1: bullpen is horrible, and I think you probably have to
- 26:44Speaker 1: give Detroit a starting pitching edge in this game too,
- 26:46Speaker 1: just because Jack Kohanowitz for Anaheim is so bad. Five
- 26:50Speaker 1: point eight five R one point six to three whip
- 26:53Speaker 1: not good. Better on the road five point five to
- 26:56Speaker 1: one ERA, although that's still not good at all. Obviously,
- 27:00Speaker 1: he's been really bad recently, man, I mean they I
- 27:03Speaker 1: believe they send him to the miners, and then since
- 27:04Speaker 1: he's come back, he still hasn't been good. I'll see,
- 27:07Speaker 1: he's come back. He's had eight walks and five strikeouts
- 27:10Speaker 1: and ten and two thirds innings, a lot of ten
- 27:11Speaker 1: hits and five earned runs all in his last outing
- 27:16Speaker 1: against the White Sox. He faced Texas and the White
- 27:18Speaker 1: Sox who aren't even good offenses, and before they send
- 27:21Speaker 1: him to the miners, he gave up eight runs in
- 27:23Speaker 1: and outing against Texas, the only lasted two and two thirds.
- 27:26Speaker 1: So Kohanawitz, he's pitching awful, man. He's not striking guys out,
- 27:30Speaker 1: He's walking a lot of guys. He's given it up
- 27:32Speaker 1: big time. Numbers against Detroit are not horrible in thirty
- 27:36Speaker 1: at bats to sixty seven average seven to forty six
- 27:39Speaker 1: oh ps. But I'm not prepared to trust that guy
- 27:42Speaker 1: at all. Casey Mize for Detroit, I mean, you know,
- 27:44Speaker 1: he's a guy I don't really like. I think he's
- 27:46Speaker 1: not as good as his numbers look. Although he's better
- 27:49Speaker 1: than Kohanowitz three point five year or one point two
- 27:52Speaker 1: to nine whip on the season, very similar home and
- 27:55Speaker 1: away numbers doesn't really matter. Decent owning last time out,
- 27:59Speaker 1: he went six innings. He gave up three on runs,
- 28:01Speaker 1: all on solo home runs against Minnesota at home with
- 28:06Speaker 1: four strikeouts. Prior month, he wasn't doing well. He had
- 28:10Speaker 1: a six point three two ERA. You could argue the
- 28:12Speaker 1: All Star Game was a bit of a distraction for
- 28:14Speaker 1: him there because he actually has pitched pretty well this season.
- 28:18Speaker 1: He allowed four or fewer earned runs in all but
- 28:20Speaker 1: one start, which was the one right before he had
- 28:22Speaker 1: to pitch in the All Star Game. Although he did
- 28:24Speaker 1: get blown up at his game after the All Star
- 28:26Speaker 1: Game and didn't do well against Arizona the game after
- 28:29Speaker 1: that either, lasting very very few innings in that game
- 28:35Speaker 1: against Anaheim. He does have pretty good numbers in forty
- 28:37Speaker 1: eight at bats to twenty nine average six fifty six
- 28:40Speaker 1: oh ps. So you probably have to give Detroit the
- 28:42Speaker 1: edge in every aspect of this game. Offense, home advantage,
- 28:47Speaker 1: starting pitcher, bullpen line has actually dropped on them, though,
- 28:51Speaker 1: I think feeling that with Miz on the mound, could
- 28:53Speaker 1: you really lay minus two hundred? So I think this
- 28:56Speaker 1: is all about the price being too high. It's down
- 28:58Speaker 1: to minus one to seventy six, eighty seven percent of tickets,
- 29:01Speaker 1: eighty five percent of the cash on Detroit. I would
- 29:04Speaker 1: say probably if you want to attack this game in
- 29:07Speaker 1: any way, I would actually probably go Detroit over their
- 29:10Speaker 1: team total and just say Detroit should score runs against
- 29:13Speaker 1: Kohanowitz plus a really bad ane. I'm bullpen probably is
- 29:17Speaker 1: the way to actually go with that game. Cleveland at
- 29:20Speaker 1: the White Sox. White Sox on the Virgier getting swept
- 29:23Speaker 1: man they've after they had a little bit of a
- 29:25Speaker 1: hot streak, They've lost six games in a row. Now
- 29:28Speaker 1: on the Virgion getting swept by Cleveland. I don't think
- 29:31Speaker 1: Cleveland has a big series up next to either. I
- 29:32Speaker 1: think they're playing Miami or something like that. So Cleveland. Yeah,
- 29:37Speaker 1: it's possible they overlook the White Sox just because the
- 29:39Speaker 1: White Sox are bad and Cleveland has dominated them in
- 29:43Speaker 1: the series for the most part. But maybe not because
- 29:46Speaker 1: Cleveland is actually fighting to remain in the playoff race here,
- 29:49Speaker 1: believe it or not. As bad as Cleveland is, they're
- 29:52Speaker 1: actually still in it technically Eveland that they've had the
- 29:55Speaker 1: gambling issues or whatever. I don't like Cleveland's bullpen very
- 29:58Speaker 1: much at all, but their bullpen is actual the better
- 30:01Speaker 1: of these two. They use four relief pitchers yesterday though,
- 30:04Speaker 1: so keep that in mind, but so did the White Sox.
- 30:06Speaker 1: So bullpen advantage does go to Cleveland. I'll give the
- 30:10Speaker 1: offensive edge to Cleveland as well, even though their offense
- 30:13Speaker 1: isn't very good. The White Sox really not good stacks.
- 30:16Speaker 1: What's up man and starting pitching, you'd probably have to
- 30:20Speaker 1: give that edge to Cleveland as well. With Slay Chacone
- 30:22Speaker 1: on the mound three point seven to nine, three point
- 30:25Speaker 1: seven two er excuse me, one point one to nine
- 30:27Speaker 1: whip better on the road as well, two point six
- 30:30Speaker 1: three ERA. On the road, he's pitching pretty well. Six strikeouts,
- 30:34Speaker 1: one walk at six innings, two earned runs allowed against
- 30:37Speaker 1: the Mets last time out, pretty good outing fro him
- 30:39Speaker 1: on the road against a pretty good lineup. He's only
- 30:42Speaker 1: allowed more than three earned runs once going all the
- 30:46Speaker 1: way back to late in May, so he is in
- 30:48Speaker 1: pretty good form right now control wise as well, and
- 30:51Speaker 1: the White Sox have barely seen him in all. Only
- 30:54Speaker 1: two of their hitters have ever seen him in They're
- 30:55Speaker 1: zero for four with a strikeout off him. So I
- 30:58Speaker 1: do think Chaconi should do pretty well in this game.
- 31:01Speaker 1: Davis Martin for the White Sox, he's been okay four
- 31:05Speaker 1: point one to one ERA, one point two to nine
- 31:07Speaker 1: whip better at home, three point oh four ERA at home,
- 31:11Speaker 1: coming off a rough outing at Seattle, though a pitcher
- 31:14Speaker 1: friendly ballpark. He have a five in runs, a couple
- 31:17Speaker 1: of home runs there in five innings, five strikeouts, two walks,
- 31:21Speaker 1: seven hits. So he's not in the greatest form right now.
- 31:23Speaker 1: The prior to starts he walked three and four guys,
- 31:26Speaker 1: so four starts in a row he's walked multiple guys,
- 31:29Speaker 1: so I think he is kind of falling out of
- 31:31Speaker 1: form a little bit here. He has fased in Cleveland.
- 31:34Speaker 1: It wasn't that great an offense, but in twenty one
- 31:36Speaker 1: at bats, small sample size, he hasn't done well against them.
- 31:39Speaker 1: Three point thirty three average, eight to ninety three oh ps,
- 31:41Speaker 1: five strikeouts, three walks, so lean in this one has
- 31:45Speaker 1: to be to Cleveland, but the money is disagreeing with
- 31:48Speaker 1: that and coming in against them again. I think some
- 31:51Speaker 1: of it is due to the pricing of it, where
- 31:52Speaker 1: Cleveland is a road favorite, and it's like, well, does
- 31:54Speaker 1: Cleveland deserve to be a road favorite against anybody? I
- 31:58Speaker 1: don't know, but I think they have the edge in
- 31:59Speaker 1: this game across the board man, so I think that
- 32:02Speaker 1: I would I would not want to play the White
- 32:04Speaker 1: Sox in this game. Eighty six percent of tickets, only
- 32:06Speaker 1: seventy one percent of the cash on Cleveland, though down
- 32:08Speaker 1: for minus one thirty five to minus one twenty three
- 32:11Speaker 1: is a strong market. Read fade in Cleveland here though,
- 32:15Speaker 1: And sometimes a strong market re will keep me off
- 32:17Speaker 1: a game, So I just I won't give it out
- 32:20Speaker 1: as a play. But my slight lean in this one
- 32:23Speaker 1: would be to Cleveland, though total has gone up from
- 32:26Speaker 1: eight and a half to nine, basically just a slight
- 32:28Speaker 1: move up pretty much. Sixty tickets, ninety seven percent of
- 32:31Speaker 1: the cash on the over. I don't really think I
- 32:33Speaker 1: would agree with that either. I think once it gets
- 32:36Speaker 1: to the bullpens, yeah, you could see some more runs
- 32:39Speaker 1: scored in this game, but Chaconi looks like he's lined
- 32:42Speaker 1: up for a pretty good start here in my opinion,
- 32:43Speaker 1: so I think that could hurt if you like an
- 32:47Speaker 1: over in that game. Mett's at Milwaukee. This is one
- 32:50Speaker 1: of the better games of the day. Milwaukee on the
- 32:52Speaker 1: verge of a sweet Milwaukee is on fire right now.
- 32:55Speaker 1: They've won eight games in a row. They have the
- 32:57Speaker 1: best record in baseball. I've been saying that think they
- 33:00Speaker 1: might win the World Series this year. Man. I was
- 33:02Speaker 1: saying that before people caught onto this before how hot
- 33:06Speaker 1: they've been recently, because you could see what's going on
- 33:08Speaker 1: where they're starting pitching rotation. They have so many guys
- 33:11Speaker 1: that have come back or entered the rotation. They're looking
- 33:14Speaker 1: really good right now, even with their offense dealing with
- 33:18Speaker 1: a couple of injuries here. But they are on the
- 33:20Speaker 1: verge of a sweep here. I don't think they're gonna
- 33:22Speaker 1: overlook the Mets. I mean it is still in the Mets,
- 33:24Speaker 1: their team with a pretty good record. The Mets eliminated
- 33:28Speaker 1: Milwaukee from the playoff last year. But the Mets used
- 33:30Speaker 1: all but one reliever yesterday, So the Mets bullpend already
- 33:34Speaker 1: I think the lesser of the two bullpens not in
- 33:36Speaker 1: good shape here at all. Milwaukee used a lot of
- 33:39Speaker 1: relievers too, but they kept at least two relievers out
- 33:43Speaker 1: of the game yesterday, so I think Milwaukee does have
- 33:45Speaker 1: a slight bullpen edge here, although the bullpens could get
- 33:48Speaker 1: into a little bit of an issue here. Man, was
- 33:50Speaker 1: that an extra innings game? It had to have been, right, No,
- 33:53Speaker 1: how is that not an extra innings game? That's bizarre, man,
- 33:56Speaker 1: that it wasn't an extra innings game, And so many
- 33:58Speaker 1: relievers were in that game. Very strange anyway, this game
- 34:02Speaker 1: interesting pitching matchup. Sean manai A pitching for the Mets.
- 34:06Speaker 1: Three point five two ERA point nine to six went
- 34:09Speaker 1: pretty good numbers. He hasn't pitched that much this year
- 34:12Speaker 1: because he was injured from the majority of the season.
- 34:16Speaker 1: Two point one six ERA on the road pretty good. Obviously.
- 34:20Speaker 1: He's been good since he's come back, although his one
- 34:22Speaker 1: bad start was his most recent start. After he'd allowed
- 34:25Speaker 1: one in run each in his first four starts of
- 34:29Speaker 1: the season. He was ramping up his pitch count every
- 34:31Speaker 1: single time. He had a bad outing. Last time out
- 34:34Speaker 1: against Cleveland, who's not a very good hitting team, gave
- 34:37Speaker 1: up five runs of five innings five to two thirds
- 34:39Speaker 1: and he excuse me, so not great, Olough, he still
- 34:42Speaker 1: had command three strikeouts, no walks, so straightgo walk ratio
- 34:46Speaker 1: remains good, although Manaia is a guy that usually walks
- 34:49Speaker 1: more guys than this, so we'll see what happens here.
- 34:52Speaker 1: Against the Brewers. He has mediocre numbers and thirty eight
- 34:55Speaker 1: at bats two eighty nine batting every seven, thirty six
- 34:58Speaker 1: obs allowed. I probably give the offensive edge in this
- 35:01Speaker 1: game slightly to the Brewers over the Mets. To be
- 35:03Speaker 1: honest about Maniah only as mediocre numbers against them, and
- 35:07Speaker 1: he might be in bad form just based on his
- 35:09Speaker 1: last start, so we'll see what happens. Quinn Priester on
- 35:13Speaker 1: them out for Milwaukee is a He's an enigma, man.
- 35:17Speaker 1: I don't know how he keeps doing this. He's having
- 35:18Speaker 1: a really good season three point one five ERA, one
- 35:21Speaker 1: point one to nine whip as I keep saying the
- 35:24Speaker 1: Red Sox should have kept him. He's been pretty good
- 35:27Speaker 1: both home in a way, very similar eras he is
- 35:31Speaker 1: now the new from Valdez basically, although I don't think
- 35:33Speaker 1: he's as good as Valdez, but in that Milwaukee has
- 35:36Speaker 1: now won twelve games in a row that he started,
- 35:39Speaker 1: which is completely insane. He keeps doing it, man, and
- 35:43Speaker 1: over that stretch he's allowed more than two hour in
- 35:44Speaker 1: runs only twice and more than three and runs only
- 35:48Speaker 1: one solthough the game that he allowed three exactly, he
- 35:50Speaker 1: really didn't last very long and he had a lot
- 35:52Speaker 1: of run support in that game against a bad Minnesota team.
- 35:55Speaker 1: But still, Priest, I wouldn't really want to buck this
- 35:59Speaker 1: trend right now, fade him and his numbers against the
- 36:01Speaker 1: Mets are actually pretty good in twenty at bats. I
- 36:03Speaker 1: know it's a small sample size, two fifty average six
- 36:06Speaker 1: to sixty eight ohps, so the only three strikeouts, two walks.
- 36:09Speaker 1: But the Mets have not done a lot of offensive
- 36:12Speaker 1: damage against them. So I think I would slightly lean
- 36:15Speaker 1: to Milwaukee in this game. And I think they have
- 36:16Speaker 1: just a slight edge across the board, which is what
- 36:19Speaker 1: I've said throughout the series. But the money is coming
- 36:21Speaker 1: in against them. They're down for minus one twenty five
- 36:24Speaker 1: to minus one to fifteen. Maybe a little bit extra
- 36:27Speaker 1: motivation on the Mets to try to get a game
- 36:29Speaker 1: out of the series. Fifty eight percent of tickets on Milwaukee,
- 36:32Speaker 1: fifty two percent of the cash coming in on the Mets.
- 36:36Speaker 1: So the market read seems pretty strong on the Mets
- 36:40Speaker 1: side there. So I'm gonna stay away from the side certainly,
- 36:43Speaker 1: I'm I'm gonna stay away from this game, but I
- 36:45Speaker 1: would also lean under in the first five innings in
- 36:48Speaker 1: this gaming. The bullpens are too used up for me
- 36:50Speaker 1: to want to go a full game under on this
- 36:52Speaker 1: I don't like that when the bullpens are so used up.
- 36:55Speaker 1: Total Zemver may have to eight though, and it could
- 36:57Speaker 1: set up so that both starting pitchers do in this game,
- 37:02Speaker 1: and I think the public is only gonna want an over.
- 37:03Speaker 1: As you can see here, seventy five percent of tickets
- 37:05Speaker 1: on the over. I mean it's Metts Brewers. You think
- 37:08Speaker 1: offense when you see those two teams, but fifty three
- 37:10Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under, So first five
- 37:13Speaker 1: under I would agree with that. As a lean Philadelphia
- 37:19Speaker 1: at Texas, Philadelphia on the verge of a sweep here,
- 37:23Speaker 1: Philadelphia actually is a Philadelphia that is the Marlins next.
- 37:27Speaker 1: Let me see, I forget because Cleveland they have Cincinnati next.
- 37:30Speaker 1: I think Cleveland has Milwaukee next, Philadelphia Cincinnati next. I
- 37:33Speaker 1: don't know if Philadelphia is gonna overlook Texas with Cincinnati next.
- 37:36Speaker 1: I mean maybe Philadelphia again. They've won both games of
- 37:39Speaker 1: the series so far, so Texas might have a little
- 37:41Speaker 1: bit of extra motivation for that reason. Texas has a
- 37:45Speaker 1: bullpen edge. Philadelphia's is not that good. Texas only used
- 37:48Speaker 1: two relievers yesterday. Philadelphia used three, although not heavy bullpen
- 37:53Speaker 1: usage either way. Philadelphia did pick up Duran Douran from
- 37:58Speaker 1: Minnesota at the trade deadline, so they did kind of
- 38:00Speaker 1: bolster their bullpen a little bit that way, but he
- 38:02Speaker 1: pitched yesterday, so he's probably not pitching today. But Philadelphia
- 38:06Speaker 1: might not need a lot of their bullpen because they
- 38:08Speaker 1: do have Zach Wheeler pitching, and he's been their best
- 38:10Speaker 1: pitcher two point six' four ERA point nine to two whip,
- 38:15Speaker 1: a little bit worse on the road three point two
- 38:17Speaker 1: to one ERA, but still good. He's had double digit
- 38:20Speaker 1: strikeouts in three of his last five outings, actually four
- 38:23Speaker 1: of his last six outings, and the other ones he
- 38:26Speaker 1: struck out eight six, eight, eight, nine seven. I mean,
- 38:28Speaker 1: he's on a really torrid pace right now man as
- 38:32Speaker 1: far as a strikeout rate, and over his last five starts,
- 38:35Speaker 1: or actually, let's go back over his last six starts,
- 38:37Speaker 1: he has a fifty six to three strikeout walk right show,
- 38:40Speaker 1: which is absolutely insane. His command has been insane. He
- 38:44Speaker 1: has allowed no more than four on runs and then
- 38:46Speaker 1: he start going all the way back to late may
- 38:49Speaker 1: we get it. I mean, he's good. He's the ace
- 38:50Speaker 1: of the Philly staff. Even though he's a little bit
- 38:52Speaker 1: up there in age. He's doing real well. Rangers don't
- 38:56Speaker 1: have a very powerful lineup. Obviously, Philadelphia has the better
- 38:59Speaker 1: offensive these two teams. One hundred and seven at bats
- 39:01Speaker 1: in his career against Texas, He's been good thirty three
- 39:04Speaker 1: to eleven strike a walk, racio two forty three average,
- 39:07Speaker 1: six seventy eight ops. Wheeler I would guess should do
- 39:11Speaker 1: well in this game. Again, it's a pitcher friendly park here.
- 39:13Speaker 1: On the surface, you gotta say Wheeler is obviously the
- 39:16Speaker 1: better pitcher over Patrick KORbin, who has at least been
- 39:20Speaker 1: serviceable this year after being one of the worst pitchers
- 39:22Speaker 1: in baseball for so long. He's having a little bit
- 39:24Speaker 1: of a resurgence, but I still don't trust him. Three
- 39:28Speaker 1: point nine one ERA, one point three to one whip
- 39:31Speaker 1: is definitely a bit too high. He is better at
- 39:33Speaker 1: home though, three point four to four ERA and this
- 39:35Speaker 1: pitcher friendly park at home here, but he hasn't really
- 39:38Speaker 1: been that good recently. Man three walks a piece in
- 39:41Speaker 1: his last two outings each, only lasted three innings last
- 39:45Speaker 1: time out, three runs a lot, but it was against
- 39:47Speaker 1: the Yankees their good offense. Texas wound up winning that
- 39:50Speaker 1: game anyway in extra innings, but he only lasted five
- 39:52Speaker 1: innings to start before that against Anaheim and give up
- 39:55Speaker 1: two arned runs in that one. So he's been a
- 39:58Speaker 1: little bit iffy. He's not in great. Over the last
- 40:00Speaker 1: couple of starts numbers, it gets Philly not good either.
- 40:03Speaker 1: In two hundred and nine at bats, they've seen a
- 40:05Speaker 1: lot of them. A fifty five to twenty nine strike
- 40:08Speaker 1: a walk ratio is not good. Three to eleven average,
- 40:10Speaker 1: nine to five ops allot also not good. So you
- 40:13Speaker 1: got to give the pitching edge to Philadelphia here, man.
- 40:16Speaker 1: So if you wanted to look for Philadelphia, maybe like
- 40:19Speaker 1: run line first five innings, that just go with where
- 40:22Speaker 1: what I think is a big starting pitching mismatch. Potentially
- 40:25Speaker 1: you could do that. They're up for minus one forty
- 40:27Speaker 1: five to minus one fifty one, eighty four percent of
- 40:29Speaker 1: tickets eighty five percent of the cash coming into Philly,
- 40:32Speaker 1: so they are public, but ook likely they do have
- 40:34Speaker 1: some of the actual money coming in on them. And
- 40:37Speaker 1: the market read is also on the under sixty nine
- 40:40Speaker 1: percent of tickets on the over fifty eight percent of
- 40:41Speaker 1: cash on the under. Total drop from eight and a
- 40:44Speaker 1: half down to seven and a half or eight, excuse me,
- 40:46Speaker 1: to seven and a half. I don't think I would
- 40:49Speaker 1: do that, man. I don't think you could trust Corman enough.
- 40:51Speaker 1: And I don't know if you could trust Philly's bullpen either,
- 40:53Speaker 1: So I would not want to try to play an
- 40:56Speaker 1: under in that game, especially at a low total like that.
- 40:58Speaker 1: Although Oddsmaker's telling they think it's gonna be a pitching
- 41:01Speaker 1: at duel, but I'm not quite so sure about that.
- 41:06Speaker 1: Or you could go with maybe Texas under their team
- 41:09Speaker 1: total up against Wheeler earlier in the game, but I
- 41:11Speaker 1: still think maybe Philly run line in the first five
- 41:14Speaker 1: might be the way to go. Washington at San Francisco.
- 41:17Speaker 1: San Francisco is the team that still has something to
- 41:19Speaker 1: play for here. As of course Philadelphia and Texas are
- 41:23Speaker 1: both in the playoff hunts, so they both are playing
- 41:26Speaker 1: for something. San Francisco still is barely holding on. I
- 41:29Speaker 1: would say they won the first game of the series,
- 41:32Speaker 1: then they lost yesterday, breaking a three game win stream
- 41:35Speaker 1: for San Francisco. San Francisco has the way better bullpen here,
- 41:39Speaker 1: There's no way around that. Washington's bullpen is awful. Washington
- 41:43Speaker 1: a little bit more usage yesterday as well with their bullpen,
- 41:46Speaker 1: So San Francisco definitely bullpen edge goes to them. Offense
- 41:49Speaker 1: probably goes to Washington a little bit. You would think
- 41:53Speaker 1: looking at the starting pitching man. You got a young
- 41:56Speaker 1: strikeout pitcher in Gore for Washington up against Vera Lin
- 42:00Speaker 1: under the old man for San Francisco. It almost looks
- 42:03Speaker 1: like Gore should have the edge and the starting pitching matchup,
- 42:05Speaker 1: but I'm not so sure he does. I mean, his
- 42:07Speaker 1: numbers are really actually starting to look pretty bad this year.
- 42:10Speaker 1: Four point two to ninety RA, one point three to
- 42:12Speaker 1: seven whip that's really not good. A little bit better
- 42:15Speaker 1: on the road, three point eight to nine y RA
- 42:17Speaker 1: on the road. This is a pitcher from the park,
- 42:19Speaker 1: but three of his last four outings he's allowed six
- 42:22Speaker 1: or more earned runs, which is atrocious. Since he pitched
- 42:27Speaker 1: in the All Star Game, he has not been right
- 42:29Speaker 1: at all. Maybe even before that, he wasn't exactly right.
- 42:33Speaker 1: Four losses in a row from Milwaukee. In his starts,
- 42:35Speaker 1: he's only had one good start against the Twins, bad lineup.
- 42:38Speaker 1: I know Sar Francisco is a bad lineup too, but
- 42:40Speaker 1: his strikeout rate has actually gone way down as well,
- 42:43Speaker 1: striking out no more than four in any of those
- 42:46Speaker 1: four starts, zero the last time out, giving up eight
- 42:49Speaker 1: runs on twelve hits to the A's and not in
- 42:51Speaker 1: the as Stadium either. So Gore really is out of
- 42:54Speaker 1: form right now. He is in really bad form, although
- 42:57Speaker 1: he has really good numbers against San Francisco in eight
- 43:00Speaker 1: at bats nineteen strikeouts, four walks, one sixty seven average
- 43:04Speaker 1: five forty three oh ps. So he does historically dominate
- 43:07Speaker 1: San Francisco. But I don't know if we could trust
- 43:10Speaker 1: him at all, man, with how awful he's been recently,
- 43:12Speaker 1: I don't think we could do that. Justin Verlander has
- 43:15Speaker 1: actually been the two of the pitchers is actually the
- 43:18Speaker 1: better form. His numbers aren't great on the season, four
- 43:21Speaker 1: point two ninety are one point four or five. Whip
- 43:24Speaker 1: is way too high. I mean, this is probably gonna
- 43:26Speaker 1: be his last season. His numbers home and away are
- 43:29Speaker 1: both very similar. His last three outings have all been
- 43:32Speaker 1: pretty good, though he's gone I mean for an old
- 43:35Speaker 1: man at least, he's gone fifteen innings five innings in
- 43:38Speaker 1: each start. He's allowed one or run across that entire
- 43:40Speaker 1: span on ten hits and also striking out what is
- 43:45Speaker 1: that fourteen, but also walking seven, which isn't that great.
- 43:49Speaker 1: Though he had a five walk performance against Atlanta and
- 43:52Speaker 1: since then one walk in each of his last two starts,
- 43:54Speaker 1: but they were bold against Pittsburgh, bad offense, so he
- 43:57Speaker 1: got to keep that in my Pittsburgh probably the worst
- 43:59Speaker 1: opens at all of baseball against Washington. Verlander actually doesn't
- 44:03Speaker 1: have good numbers and forty one at bats nine to
- 44:06Speaker 1: two strike a walk ratios all right, but a three
- 44:08Speaker 1: sixty six batting average and nine eighty one ohps is
- 44:12Speaker 1: not very good, so Verlander. The matchup numbers seem to
- 44:17Speaker 1: be in favor of Gore here, but as far as
- 44:20Speaker 1: recent form, Gore is an awful form. Man. Money is
- 44:23Speaker 1: coming in in San Francisco. They're up for minus one
- 44:25Speaker 1: thirty minus one fifty two. San Francisco is the one
- 44:28Speaker 1: of the two teams with anything to play for really
- 44:30Speaker 1: here seventy four percent of tickets, eighty four percent of
- 44:32Speaker 1: the cash coming in on them. But it's I mean,
- 44:35Speaker 1: you're paying at tax for Verlander again, man, it's for
- 44:37Speaker 1: the name Verlander. I'm just not sure that you could
- 44:40Speaker 1: come in and really actually do that. The money's coming
- 44:44Speaker 1: in on the over ninety tickets, ninety seven percent of
- 44:46Speaker 1: the cash. It's gone up from eight to eight juice
- 44:48Speaker 1: to the over. I could see the argument for that
- 44:51Speaker 1: with Gore being in terrible form. Verlander really, of course,
- 44:55Speaker 1: nowhere close to what he once was, so I do
- 44:58Speaker 1: see an argument for that, even though this is a
- 45:00Speaker 1: bad San Francisco offense and a pitcher friendly park. So
- 45:03Speaker 1: we will see my Red Sox at San Diego. Red
- 45:06Speaker 1: Sox got the first game of the series and blowout fashion.
- 45:10Speaker 1: They lost yesterday, however, in heartbreaking fashion after the Red
- 45:17Speaker 1: Sox I guess scored on a botched hit and ball
- 45:20Speaker 1: trick by Machado trying to fool the Red Sox. I know,
- 45:23Speaker 1: Roman Anthony tied the game in the top of the
- 45:25Speaker 1: ninth inning off of San Diego is really good bullpen,
- 45:28Speaker 1: but then the Red Sox lost anyway in the bottom
- 45:30Speaker 1: of the ninth. San Diego normally has a bullpen edge,
- 45:34Speaker 1: but they use all but one or two of their relievers.
- 45:37Speaker 1: Yesterday two of their relievers, so they used six relief pitchers.
- 45:40Speaker 1: Yesterday Red Sox used four, but they only use Whitlock
- 45:44Speaker 1: for one pitch, so he's probably available again today, which
- 45:48Speaker 1: would mean he'd pitch three games in a row, but
- 45:50Speaker 1: he hasn't been throwing a lot of pitches, so Red
- 45:52Speaker 1: Sox actually have the bullpen rest edge in this game,
- 45:55Speaker 1: and it might be enough that the Red Sox actually
- 45:57Speaker 1: have the edge and the bullpens here, the Red Socks
- 46:00Speaker 1: probably have the better offense to starting pitching. I don't know, man,
- 46:05Speaker 1: I mean, these are two starting pitchers that have really
- 46:08Speaker 1: good moments and then like they can look dominant at
- 46:10Speaker 1: times and then they can look horrendous at times. But
- 46:13Speaker 1: I do think Bao is probably in the better form
- 46:15Speaker 1: out of the two overseas and has the better season
- 46:18Speaker 1: going on here since he's turned it around. Three point
- 46:20Speaker 1: zero three ERA on the season for Bao, one point
- 46:23Speaker 1: two way whip is definitely too high, but he's been
- 46:25Speaker 1: a lot better recently. He's been a little bit better
- 46:27Speaker 1: on the road as well. Two point eight to eighty RA.
- 46:30Speaker 1: He's been in pretty good for him man for a
- 46:32Speaker 1: while now. In July had a thirty one to nine
- 46:35Speaker 1: strike a walk race here two point seven to nine
- 46:37Speaker 1: e RA. He's allowed no more than three earned runs
- 46:39Speaker 1: going all the way back to mid May, although that
- 46:43Speaker 1: was back he wasn't going deep into games back then,
- 46:45Speaker 1: he was walking too many guys. But he's gone at
- 46:48Speaker 1: least five innings in every start now going all the
- 46:50Speaker 1: way back through the beginning of June, so he is
- 46:52Speaker 1: starting to ramp it up and pitch pretty well. Last
- 46:55Speaker 1: downing shut out for six innings against Kansas City or no,
- 46:58Speaker 1: he gave up one unnurn Ronnics using against Kansas City
- 47:01Speaker 1: picked up another win five to one strike out walk ratio.
- 47:05Speaker 1: Red Sox have actually won what is that five of
- 47:07Speaker 1: his last seven starts, which is not bad either. So
- 47:10Speaker 1: he's in pretty decent form right now. Man, although he
- 47:12Speaker 1: did walk four guys two starts to go against Minnesota,
- 47:15Speaker 1: and you only give up one run in that start too.
- 47:18Speaker 1: BeO is also like a pretty strong ground ball pitcher,
- 47:21Speaker 1: so he gets out of some jams that way too,
- 47:23Speaker 1: even though that's not really the way you want to pitch.
- 47:25Speaker 1: But overall, he's in pretty decent form right now. San
- 47:28Speaker 1: Diego has thirty at bats against him. Strego walk ratio
- 47:31Speaker 1: is bad four strikeout, seven walks two sixty seven average
- 47:34Speaker 1: fairly low, but seven to seventy two oh ps a
- 47:36Speaker 1: little bit high. Sheets does have a home run often,
- 47:39Speaker 1: But BeO overall, I would say, not really that bad
- 47:43Speaker 1: with his numbers against San Diego. Dylan ceas pitcher for
- 47:46Speaker 1: San Diego, really good last year, but not that good
- 47:49Speaker 1: this year. Four point sixty RA one point three whip.
- 47:52Speaker 1: He is definitely better at home, though it's a pitcher
- 47:54Speaker 1: friendly park three point six to seventy r at home,
- 47:57Speaker 1: so he is definitely better here coming off a good
- 48:00Speaker 1: outing in this park, shutting out Saint Louis for five
- 48:03Speaker 1: innings with nine strikeouts, one hit, one walk. One of
- 48:06Speaker 1: the main issues with Cease, though, is that he throws
- 48:09Speaker 1: a ton of pitches. Man. He strikes out a lot
- 48:11Speaker 1: of guys, but he also walks a lot of guys.
- 48:13Speaker 1: The prior four starts that he'd walk three or more,
- 48:16Speaker 1: and three of the four he just doesn't make it
- 48:19Speaker 1: that far into most of these games. Man, he's usually
- 48:21Speaker 1: in the game five six innings and he winds up
- 48:24Speaker 1: getting close to one hundred pitches in that span, so
- 48:27Speaker 1: he's really inefficient with his pitches. This year against the
- 48:30Speaker 1: Red Sox, similar numbers to Bao in a way, although
- 48:33Speaker 1: the strikeout walk ratio is way better for Cease in
- 48:35Speaker 1: thirty four at bats, ten strikeouts, one walk, Story does
- 48:39Speaker 1: have a home run off him two sixty five average
- 48:42Speaker 1: allowed seven to fifty six ops, so both pitchers have
- 48:45Speaker 1: allowed a somewhat low ish batting average, but a bit
- 48:48Speaker 1: of a higher ops against these opposing lineups. What are
- 48:51Speaker 1: we gonna get in this game? I honestly have no idea. Man.
- 48:56Speaker 1: The money's coming in on the San Diego side. Unfortunately
- 48:59Speaker 1: for May, as a Red Sox fan up for minus
- 49:01Speaker 1: one thirty minus one forty five, sixty three percent of
- 49:04Speaker 1: the cash on them, fifty six percent of tickets on
- 49:06Speaker 1: the Red Sox public actually coming in on the Red Sox.
- 49:09Speaker 1: San Diego is better at home, so that is one
- 49:12Speaker 1: thing to keep in mind. And the money looks like
- 49:13Speaker 1: it is coming in on the under as well. Down
- 49:15Speaker 1: from May and a half to seven and a half,
- 49:17Speaker 1: we got what is eighty five percent of tickets on
- 49:20Speaker 1: the over, seventy four percent of the cash on the over.
- 49:23Speaker 1: Expecting a pitching duel here with San Diego's bullpen being
- 49:28Speaker 1: so used up, though, I don't know if I could
- 49:29Speaker 1: recommend an under in this game, man. I mean maybe
- 49:31Speaker 1: if you can find the first five inning under still
- 49:33Speaker 1: at like four, you could potentially do that and go
- 49:36Speaker 1: with the starting pitching to be a duel. But other
- 49:38Speaker 1: than that, I don't think I would want to deal
- 49:40Speaker 1: with that, man. I mean, I don't even want to
- 49:43Speaker 1: say I slightly lean to San Diego either. But if
- 49:46Speaker 1: you think that Ceas has the upper hand over Bao
- 49:48Speaker 1: in the starting pitching matchup first five innings, San Diego, maybe,
- 49:52Speaker 1: but the bullpen edge I think actually might slightly go
- 49:54Speaker 1: to the Red Sox at this point. With the usage
- 49:57Speaker 1: Colorado at Arizona, I mean, Colorado, they're just historically bad, man.
- 50:03Speaker 1: Even though Arizona sold off of the trade deadline. Arizona's
- 50:06Speaker 1: on the verge of potentially sweeping Colorado here. But it
- 50:09Speaker 1: doesn't mean Arizona might not totally pay attention to Colorado.
- 50:12Speaker 1: I mean, neither team really has a whole lot left
- 50:14Speaker 1: to play for. Both bullpens are bad, but Colorado's is
- 50:18Speaker 1: so bad that I think Arizona actually has a bullpen
- 50:20Speaker 1: edge somewhat similar usage wise too. So Arizona's got the
- 50:24Speaker 1: bullpen edge, they got the offensive edge, probably of the
- 50:28Speaker 1: starting pitching edge two, although I don't know, man, it's
- 50:30Speaker 1: hard to gauge Tanner Gordon pitching for the Rockies. Basically
- 50:34Speaker 1: all of the Rockies pitchers have awful number six point
- 50:37Speaker 1: five ninety RRA one point seven to eight whip really bad.
- 50:40Speaker 1: He's actually worse away from course field nine point three
- 50:43Speaker 1: to ninety RA. Although it's in a small sample size,
- 50:46Speaker 1: but this is a pretty hitter friendly park in Arizona.
- 50:49Speaker 1: He's given up thirteen runs over his last two starts
- 50:52Speaker 1: over a span of only five and two thirds innings,
- 50:54Speaker 1: on nineteen hits, three strikeouts, two walks. He's been horrific, man,
- 50:59Speaker 1: He's been awful over that span, just horrific against Arizona.
- 51:04Speaker 1: Only four at bats, although a bunch of guys have
- 51:06Speaker 1: seen him four at bats, but they do have two
- 51:08Speaker 1: walks as well, no strikeouts, five hundred average and one
- 51:12Speaker 1: thousand and one sixty seven oh ps, so I don't
- 51:14Speaker 1: expect Gordon to do well here. Brandon Fott pitching for
- 51:18Speaker 1: the Diamondbacks here really bad numbers on the season though,
- 51:21Speaker 1: five point oh two ERA, one point three to one WHIP.
- 51:23Speaker 1: I don't know what's going on with him, man, but
- 51:25Speaker 1: he does pitch better at home. For whatever reason, he
- 51:28Speaker 1: pitches way better at home. Three point six four ERA.
- 51:31Speaker 1: He's allowed seventeen to the twenty one runs he's allowed
- 51:34Speaker 1: on the road this year. I don't know what it
- 51:36Speaker 1: is with him on the road, but it's been bad
- 51:39Speaker 1: for him on the road. A last start wasn't great
- 51:41Speaker 1: though at home he held San Diego to two runs
- 51:43Speaker 1: and got the win, but had three walks and four
- 51:47Speaker 1: strikeouts in that game. It wasn't that great. So he's
- 51:50Speaker 1: a little bit iffy right now. I would say. Even
- 51:52Speaker 1: though he had a good strike a walk ratio of
- 51:53Speaker 1: the previous two months, his era was still like sky high.
- 51:58Speaker 1: So even though, yeah, he usually does pitch better at home,
- 52:00Speaker 1: maybe it won't be happening here. Thirty six at bats
- 52:03Speaker 1: against the Rock, he's eleven to two strike at walk
- 52:05Speaker 1: issue is good, but he's allot of three thirty three
- 52:07Speaker 1: average and eight forty one ohps to this lineup. Even
- 52:10Speaker 1: this lineup isn't really that good. So this game, to me,
- 52:15Speaker 1: I would say probably an over. It's already gone up
- 52:19Speaker 1: from nine to nine juice to the over. So again
- 52:21Speaker 1: nine is a key number. Man, You'd rather go over
- 52:23Speaker 1: nine than nine and a half. So if you want
- 52:25Speaker 1: to get that over minus won twenty on the over, nine,
- 52:28Speaker 1: I think got to get that before it goes higher
- 52:31Speaker 1: because the public looks like they're on the over. Ninety
- 52:33Speaker 1: four percent of the tickets, ninety eight percent of the
- 52:34Speaker 1: cash coming in on the over. But that is the
- 52:37Speaker 1: way that I see playing this game, man, bad bullpens
- 52:40Speaker 1: both starters. They could give it up here. Arizona way
- 52:45Speaker 1: too heavy a favorite, up to minus two forty five,
- 52:47Speaker 1: eighty one percent of tickets, only seventy four percent of
- 52:49Speaker 1: the cash. I mean, if you are worried about the
- 52:52Speaker 1: full game over with five having good numbers at home,
- 52:55Speaker 1: at the very least, you could go Arizona over their
- 52:57Speaker 1: team total. Just for the d Backs to score a
- 53:00Speaker 1: lot of runs. I think that's probably okay as far
- 53:02Speaker 1: as looking at that as well, that you're gonna have
- 53:04Speaker 1: to go over a pretty high total there probably of like,
- 53:06Speaker 1: you're probably gonna need them to score six runs at least.
- 53:09Speaker 1: Tampa at Seattle Seattle on the verge of a sweep
- 53:12Speaker 1: after they had an eight inning outburst to win Game
- 53:15Speaker 1: one after they were losing all game, and then they
- 53:17Speaker 1: won yesterday as well. Seattle is on a pretty nice
- 53:21Speaker 1: hot streak right now, Man, Tampa, excuse Tampa might be
- 53:25Speaker 1: like done for the season, Man, they might be out
- 53:27Speaker 1: of it now. Seattle certainly playing to make the playoffs here.
- 53:32Speaker 1: Seattle used more of their relief pitchers yesterday, though, so
- 53:35Speaker 1: Tampa might have a little bit of a bullpen edge.
- 53:36Speaker 2: Year.
- 53:37Speaker 1: We're talking about two okay bullpens. Seattle has the offensive
- 53:41Speaker 1: edge year, and Seattle should have a starting pitching edge year.
- 53:44Speaker 1: Adrian Houser is pitching for Tampa Bay. Good numbers on
- 53:47Speaker 1: the season for the most part, two point five to forty,
- 53:50Speaker 1: one point two to nine whip is a little bit high,
- 53:52Speaker 1: though a little bit worse on the road, though a
- 53:54Speaker 1: bit worse three point four to six ERA on the road.
- 53:57Speaker 1: He was pitching pretty well for the White Sox and
- 53:59Speaker 1: then Tampa but got him and his first start he
- 54:02Speaker 1: was really bad at Anaheim and went five to two
- 54:04Speaker 1: thirds to give up five and runs, eleven hits three
- 54:07Speaker 1: to one strike out walk ratio. So Howser maybe is
- 54:10Speaker 1: not as good as he looked during that stretch with
- 54:12Speaker 1: the White Sox. Man, he did face a lot of
- 54:13Speaker 1: bad offenses, a couple of good offenses in there, but
- 54:17Speaker 1: he's not really in good form right now.
- 54:19Speaker 2: Man.
- 54:19Speaker 1: That was a really bad outing for him last time out.
- 54:22Speaker 1: He's in a more pitcher friendly park here. His numbers
- 54:24Speaker 1: against Seattle are kind of all over the place. In
- 54:27Speaker 1: fifty six at bats two fifty average but eight fifty
- 54:30Speaker 1: one ops, six strikeout, seven walks, and three home runs
- 54:33Speaker 1: a lot. Suarez has two home runs against him, six
- 54:37Speaker 1: for nineteen. One of the newcomers for the Mariners line
- 54:41Speaker 1: up there, so again, maybe hits plus runs plus RBIs
- 54:44Speaker 1: was Suarez because he is familiar with Howser and specifically
- 54:48Speaker 1: does pretty well against him. So I'm not ready to
- 54:50Speaker 1: say that Howser is gonna pitch well in this game. Man,
- 54:52Speaker 1: I'm not sure that he will. Brian Wu usually is
- 54:55Speaker 1: a safer bet to pitch well, especially at home for Seattle.
- 54:58Speaker 1: He's pretty good three point oh two era point nine
- 55:02Speaker 1: to four whip really good, really good at home, two
- 55:04Speaker 1: point one seventy ra at home. Coming up another good
- 55:07Speaker 1: outing at home though it was the White Sox terrible lineup,
- 55:10Speaker 1: but he went seven innings, line one and run on
- 55:12Speaker 1: two hits, nine strikeouts, no walks, even though he gave
- 55:15Speaker 1: up some runs the previous start. It was at that
- 55:17Speaker 1: horrible A's stadium, so you can give him a little
- 55:20Speaker 1: bit of a pass for that. His strikeout walk ratio
- 55:22Speaker 1: has still been good. I mean, he's still in pretty
- 55:24Speaker 1: good form. He's still got good command. Wu again usually
- 55:27Speaker 1: a pretty good bet to do well. Tampa hasn't seen
- 55:30Speaker 1: a lot of them. They only have seven at bats
- 55:32Speaker 1: against him, two strikeouts, no walks, They have no extra
- 55:35Speaker 1: base hits. They do have a four to twenty nine
- 55:37Speaker 1: average off him though, three for seven eight to fifty
- 55:39Speaker 1: seven ops. But it's such a small sample size and
- 55:43Speaker 1: with no extra base hits and no walks, I'm not
- 55:45Speaker 1: about to say that WU has like bad numbers really
- 55:48Speaker 1: against Tampa or anything like that. So I expect WU
- 55:51Speaker 1: to be the better of these two pitchers here. But
- 55:53Speaker 1: Seattle's up for minus one sixty five to minus one
- 55:55Speaker 1: eighty one, seventy two percent of tickets, only fifty seven
- 55:58Speaker 1: percent of the cash. So the money looks like it's
- 56:01Speaker 1: disagreeing with Seattle at least at this price. Is a
- 56:04Speaker 1: pretty heavy price to lay on Seattle money coming in
- 56:08Speaker 1: on the under to some extent too, down from seven
- 56:10Speaker 1: and a half to seven and a half juice to
- 56:11Speaker 1: the under one of these Seattle under ish games here.
- 56:14Speaker 1: But I just don't know that you could trust howser
- 56:16Speaker 1: man fifty percent of tickets on the under, sixty four
- 56:19Speaker 1: percent of the cash coming in on the under. I mean,
- 56:22Speaker 1: I don't know how I would want to attack this game, man.
- 56:25Speaker 1: I could see an argument from maybe going Seattle over
- 56:28Speaker 1: their team total, but then they do have to do
- 56:30Speaker 1: it against Tampa's bullpend, which isn't that bad either. Yeah,
- 56:35Speaker 1: I don't know, Man, or we could go with Seattle.
- 56:37Speaker 1: Maybe first five innings Seattle run line, just to attack
- 56:41Speaker 1: the starting pitching matchup specifically. I don't know. That's a
- 56:44Speaker 1: little bit of a tough one to gauge there, Man,
- 56:47Speaker 1: And then Toronto at the Dodgers. I give out the
- 56:50Speaker 1: Dodgers first five innings yesterday with the run line. They
- 56:53Speaker 1: had it done. They were up three to nothing. I
- 56:54Speaker 1: think O Tany hit a home run to make it
- 56:57Speaker 1: three nothing in the bottom of the fifth. It was
- 56:58Speaker 1: already two nothing at that point. I wound up nine
- 57:01Speaker 1: to one. So the Dodgers are on the verge of
- 57:03Speaker 1: a sweep of Toronto here. Toronto, I had said, I
- 57:07Speaker 1: don't think Toronto's gonna wind up in first place in
- 57:09Speaker 1: the Al East. Man, I still think it's gonna be
- 57:11Speaker 1: the Yankees. Unfortunately, Dodgers do have their cross city rival
- 57:15Speaker 1: up next in Anaheim. Although Anna, i'm's not a very
- 57:17Speaker 1: good team, So I don't know if the Dodgers are
- 57:19Speaker 1: gonna overlook this series against Toronto. Here Dodgers again. They
- 57:24Speaker 1: might overlook them a little bit because they've pretty much
- 57:26Speaker 1: dominated the series. The Dodgers are the better team, but
- 57:29Speaker 1: Toronto does have the better bullpen, at least so they
- 57:32Speaker 1: used four relief pitchers yesterday Dodgers used three. I'll still
- 57:35Speaker 1: give the bullpen edge to Toronto, slightlyve in the Toronto's
- 57:38Speaker 1: bullpen didn't really get it done yesterday. Game got a
- 57:41Speaker 1: bit out of hand. Dodgers have the better offense, especially
- 57:44Speaker 1: at home, although Toronto's isn't that bad. Toronto, coming off
- 57:48Speaker 1: that offensive explosion against Colorado, though, you kind of had
- 57:51Speaker 1: to expect Toronto would regress a little bit. They're still
- 57:53Speaker 1: not quite as good as the record looks. Eric Lauer
- 57:56Speaker 1: is pitching for the Blue Jays, though, and he's having
- 57:58Speaker 1: a really good season two point five nine ERA, point
- 58:01Speaker 1: nine to eight whip. He's been almost the same home
- 58:04Speaker 1: and away era wise doesn't really matter. Over the last
- 58:08Speaker 1: month plus the start this month, he has a thirty
- 58:11Speaker 1: four to four strike a walk ratio, hasn't allow more
- 58:13Speaker 1: than two hour runs in any of those outings. He's
- 58:16Speaker 1: been quite effective. Man, He's been good. So I'm not
- 58:19Speaker 1: ready to fade Louer really. His numbers against the Dodgers
- 58:22Speaker 1: are okay. In seventy three at bats, two forty seven
- 58:25Speaker 1: average is really low, but they've gotten walks and hit
- 58:28Speaker 1: for some power against him fifteen to ten strike a
- 58:31Speaker 1: walk ratio, five home runs. So despite the two forty
- 58:35Speaker 1: seven average a lot a little bit of a high
- 58:37Speaker 1: eight zero three ops but lower, he's in good form.
- 58:40Speaker 2: Man.
- 58:40Speaker 1: He's pitching better this year than he pretty much ever has,
- 58:42Speaker 1: so I think he might do okay in this game.
- 58:44Speaker 1: He's up against Tyler glasno though, who's one of the
- 58:47Speaker 1: best pitchers the Dodgers have when he has his stuff.
- 58:50Speaker 1: Good numbers this season in a season that's been mired
- 58:53Speaker 1: by injury though, three point zero sixty RA, one point
- 58:57Speaker 1: zero nine whip really good at home, one point nine
- 59:00Speaker 1: seventy r at home. Last outing was at home and
- 59:03Speaker 1: he dominated Saint Louis seven innings, one and run all out,
- 59:06Speaker 1: seven strikeouts, two walks of Glasnow really good in that start.
- 59:10Speaker 1: I wasn't good in the start before that, but it
- 59:12Speaker 1: was at Great America Ballpark and if you throw that
- 59:15Speaker 1: start out. Since the beginning of July, he has made
- 59:18Speaker 1: five starts, allowed one or fewer and run in every
- 59:21Speaker 1: start besides that one at Great American, and he's walked
- 59:25Speaker 1: one or two in three of the last four outings
- 59:29Speaker 1: excluding that one against Great American as well, so that's
- 59:32Speaker 1: pretty good. And his numbers are pretty dominant against the
- 59:34Speaker 1: Blue Jays and fifty two at bats one seventy three
- 59:36Speaker 1: average allowed five to seventy two ops, seventeen to eight
- 59:40Speaker 1: strikeout walk ratio. Vlad Guerrero does have a home run
- 59:42Speaker 1: off him in four of those walks, so really, Guerrero
- 59:45Speaker 1: is really the only hitter of the Blue Jays had
- 59:47Speaker 1: that really has done damage against him. So glasnow should
- 59:51Speaker 1: be able to get through that Blue Jays lineup, I
- 59:53Speaker 1: would imagine. So I'm gonna lean slightly to the Dodgers
- 59:56Speaker 1: in the first five innings. Again, I don't like the
- 59:58Speaker 1: bullpens an area on the money looks like it's coming
- 1:00:01Speaker 1: in on the Toronto side, even though you'd think that
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: with a price like this the public was they've kind
- 1:00:06Speaker 1: of been leaning towards Toronto man of the public, just
- 1:00:10Speaker 1: because it looks like a high price between two teams
- 1:00:12Speaker 1: with good records. But maybe with Glasgow on the mound,
- 1:00:15Speaker 1: the public's kind of sold on the Dodgers again after
- 1:00:17Speaker 1: they won the last couple of games in kind of
- 1:00:20Speaker 1: dominant fashion to fifty three percent of tickets on the
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: Dodgers the fifty seven percent of the cash coming in
- 1:00:25Speaker 1: on Toronto, a line down for mix one eighty to
- 1:00:28Speaker 1: one to seventy five. I mean, I could see an
- 1:00:30Speaker 1: argument for the run line first five for the Dodgers.
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: I think the better way to go is actually maybe
- 1:00:35Speaker 1: under in the first five innings, even though the money's
- 1:00:37Speaker 1: coming in on the over sixty percent of tickets seventy
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: four percent of the cash on the over. But both
- 1:00:42Speaker 1: pitchers are in good form right now, man, So I
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: don't know if you want to fade either one of
- 1:00:47Speaker 1: them really, So I think first five inning under might
- 1:00:49Speaker 1: actually be able to get there, and that one with
- 1:00:52Speaker 1: that starting pitching matchup, and then we have a potentially
- 1:00:55Speaker 1: another good starting pitching matchup in the ESPN Sunday night game,
- 1:00:59Speaker 1: which his Cubs at Saint Louis. Although I don't know
- 1:01:03Speaker 1: how much we trust Saint Louis at this point because
- 1:01:05Speaker 1: I think they're pretty much out of it. I mean,
- 1:01:06Speaker 1: they're five hundred, but they have a chance to spoil
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: the Cubs, man. I mean the Cubs. They're in second
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: place in the division right now. Because they're dealing with
- 1:01:15Speaker 1: Milwaukee and this division, Cubs probably will make the playoffs,
- 1:01:18Speaker 1: but it's probably gonna be a it's probably gonna be
- 1:01:22Speaker 1: a wild card for the Cubs. The way it's looking
- 1:01:24Speaker 1: right now, Saint Louis looks like they might be without
- 1:01:27Speaker 1: what is that Brendan Donovan is at his name, they're
- 1:01:30Speaker 1: infielder there or whatever. So he has groin tightness, he's
- 1:01:33Speaker 1: he's tight, man. I don't know what he's been doing
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: with his groin. Man. Maybe maybe he should just jerk
- 1:01:40Speaker 1: off man, loosen it up a little bit. But I
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: don't know if he's gonna be playing in this game.
- 1:01:44Speaker 1: I don't know that it really matters that much as
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: far as the handicap. Saint Louis won the first game
- 1:01:48Speaker 1: of the series five nothing, but then the lost nine
- 1:01:50Speaker 1: to one yesterday. I did tell you I leaned to
- 1:01:52Speaker 1: the Cubs yesterday on the show. Cubs have the better bullpen.
- 1:01:56Speaker 1: Saint Louis kind of dealt some guys away at the
- 1:01:58Speaker 1: trade deadline, although again Saint Louis Sunday night game hosting
- 1:02:02Speaker 1: the Cubs. That's probably one game where even though Saint
- 1:02:04Speaker 1: Louis is out of it this year, it's probably one
- 1:02:06Speaker 1: game where Saint Louis will want to show up at
- 1:02:08Speaker 1: the very least. Cubs have the better bullpen, though in
- 1:02:11Speaker 1: the better offense in the less used bullpen as well,
- 1:02:16Speaker 1: So the Cubs do have a lot of edges in
- 1:02:17Speaker 1: this game, and I think they probably have the starting
- 1:02:19Speaker 1: pitching edged too, with show to im andag got pitching
- 1:02:22Speaker 1: three point one two ERA one whip better on the
- 1:02:25Speaker 1: road to two point nine to six ERA on the road.
- 1:02:28Speaker 1: Last start was good against Cincinnati, six and a third,
- 1:02:31Speaker 1: one on run, seven strikeouts, no walks. He's walked one
- 1:02:35Speaker 1: or fewer in every start going all the way back
- 1:02:37Speaker 1: into April, so I think he was injured for a bit,
- 1:02:40Speaker 1: but he does not walk guys man over his last
- 1:02:44Speaker 1: going through the beginning of July, he has a thirty
- 1:02:47Speaker 1: three to two strikeout walk ratio. He's allowed more than
- 1:02:50Speaker 1: three on runs and only one start, which was an
- 1:02:53Speaker 1: inexplicably bad start against the White Sox. I don't know
- 1:02:55Speaker 1: what that was other than that. He's been really really
- 1:02:58Speaker 1: good though as of late, and for most of the season.
- 1:03:02Speaker 1: Against the Cardinals, he pretty much dominates them in fifty
- 1:03:05Speaker 1: at bats, they only have eight hits. Win does hit
- 1:03:09Speaker 1: him well four for nine of the home run, but
- 1:03:11Speaker 1: other than that, none of these other hitters do anything
- 1:03:13Speaker 1: against him. Fifteen to one strike a walk ratio one
- 1:03:16Speaker 1: sixty average. Dunnovan is listed here, but he's zero for
- 1:03:19Speaker 1: eight with four strikeouts, so I don't even know if
- 1:03:22Speaker 1: it's a plus. If he is in the lineup for
- 1:03:24Speaker 1: Saint Louis, it might not even be good for them.
- 1:03:26Speaker 1: I Monaga won sixty average allowed against them in four
- 1:03:29Speaker 1: thirty six ops, so he does dominate them. He's going
- 1:03:33Speaker 1: up against Sunny Gray, who is still the best start
- 1:03:36Speaker 1: of the Cardinals. Havel those Era has gotten a bit
- 1:03:38Speaker 1: high four point two one, one point one seven whip
- 1:03:41Speaker 1: is good. He is still a pretty good pitcher. He's
- 1:03:44Speaker 1: good at home three point five two era at home,
- 1:03:47Speaker 1: a good outing. Last time out on the road against
- 1:03:49Speaker 1: the Dodgers. He actually one hit them for seven innings.
- 1:03:52Speaker 1: It was a solo home run, one on run allowed
- 1:03:54Speaker 1: eight to one strike a walk ratio, So he pitched
- 1:03:56Speaker 1: really well against a really good Dodger lineup. In pretty
- 1:04:00Speaker 1: decent form over the last few starts, well over the
- 1:04:05Speaker 1: last two starts I should say where he went five
- 1:04:07Speaker 1: innings long, three in runs against Miami, so he came
- 1:04:09Speaker 1: back into for him the prior. A couple of starts
- 1:04:11Speaker 1: he got bombed. He gave up six and eight are
- 1:04:13Speaker 1: in runs. But he still didn't walk anybody of those starts,
- 1:04:16Speaker 1: so he was giving up runs on a bunch of
- 1:04:19Speaker 1: hard hits. He was like basically just leaving it over
- 1:04:21Speaker 1: the plate, I guess because he was not walking like anybody,
- 1:04:24Speaker 1: but he was getting hit hard. His numbers against call
- 1:04:27Speaker 1: against the Cubs are not good though. In one hundred
- 1:04:30Speaker 1: and one of bats a twenty seven to eleven strike
- 1:04:32Speaker 1: a walk race shows mediocre, but two ninety seven bad
- 1:04:36Speaker 1: average eight nine and one hps not that good. The
- 1:04:38Speaker 1: Cubs do some damage off him, justin Turner seven for
- 1:04:41Speaker 1: thirteen with a couple of bombs, halp Is seven for
- 1:04:44Speaker 1: nineteen with the bomb, Tucker three for eight. So some
- 1:04:48Speaker 1: of these guys do hit him pretty well. Swanson five
- 1:04:51Speaker 1: for fourteen. Yeah, so we'll see what happens in this game, man, Gray,
- 1:04:56Speaker 1: probably not the way you want to lean here. I'd
- 1:04:57Speaker 1: probably lean to the Cubs in this game. I could
- 1:05:01Speaker 1: see maybe some arguments that it might be a starting
- 1:05:03Speaker 1: pitching dual early in the game, maybe an under in
- 1:05:06Speaker 1: the first five, But I still think Cubs might be
- 1:05:09Speaker 1: the better way to look at this. They're actually a
- 1:05:11Speaker 1: fairly cheap price, although you're having to lay a favorite
- 1:05:14Speaker 1: price on the road, but maybe it's deserved because I
- 1:05:16Speaker 1: do think they have the edge basically across the board
- 1:05:19Speaker 1: in this game. They're down for minus one twenty to
- 1:05:20Speaker 1: minus one seventeen eighty four percent of ticket is ninety
- 1:05:23Speaker 1: five percent of the cash on them, so they're public,
- 1:05:25Speaker 1: but it looks like some of the actual money is
- 1:05:27Speaker 1: on them, and the total is flipped to seven and
- 1:05:29Speaker 1: a half juice to the over, now seventy three percent
- 1:05:31Speaker 1: of tickets ninety three percent of cash on the over
- 1:05:34Speaker 1: money coming in on the over in an Emanaga game,
- 1:05:36Speaker 1: for whatever reason, I think I could see an argument
- 1:05:39Speaker 1: maybe for it being under early in the game if
- 1:05:41Speaker 1: you can get like an under four. But with Gray,
- 1:05:43Speaker 1: with his history against the Cubs, I'm not sure I
- 1:05:45Speaker 1: like that, So I would go Cubs money line if
- 1:05:47Speaker 1: I was gonna play that game. Let's get to the
- 1:05:51Speaker 1: best bet now, and then I'll just do the preseason
- 1:05:53Speaker 1: football just because the best bet is in baseball, and
- 1:05:56Speaker 1: I don't even know how good this bet really is
- 1:05:58Speaker 1: because I'm going against the market read here. But it's
- 1:06:01Speaker 1: gonna be Miami Atlanta over the total eight and a half,
- 1:06:04Speaker 1: not really that I have a total, and I found
- 1:06:06Speaker 1: it at even money at plus one hundred, where sometimes
- 1:06:10Speaker 1: it doesn't work out because you're fading the market read.
- 1:06:12Speaker 1: But when I fade the market read in some of
- 1:06:15Speaker 1: these baseball totals sometimes it I mean, I think it
- 1:06:17Speaker 1: works out for me more often than it doesn't, to
- 1:06:19Speaker 1: be honest, that's what I'm going I'll explain it in
- 1:06:21Speaker 1: a second. It looks like the money's coming in on
- 1:06:24Speaker 1: the under, though, so I'm fading this market read here.
- 1:06:26Speaker 1: It's down from nine to eight and a half juice
- 1:06:28Speaker 1: to the under, seventy eight percent of tickets on the over,
- 1:06:30Speaker 1: sixty nine percent of the cash on the under. I
- 1:06:32Speaker 1: know both offenses are a little bit questionable here, but
- 1:06:36Speaker 1: they're both kind of middle of the pack as far
- 1:06:38Speaker 1: as ops is concerned. I know Akunya is out for Atlanta,
- 1:06:41Speaker 1: but still the reasoning for this, these teams played a
- 1:06:44Speaker 1: doubleheader yesterday. Okay, so I know I told you I
- 1:06:47Speaker 1: like the over in the late game yesterday and that
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: worked out. That was a big time over fourteen runs
- 1:06:53Speaker 1: scored in that game. So these offenses can score at least,
- 1:06:57Speaker 1: I think when the bullpens are shaky, and I think
- 1:06:59Speaker 1: that be the case here man, that that was part
- 1:07:01Speaker 1: of my reasoning. It was bad starting pitching plus the
- 1:07:05Speaker 1: bullpen's being used up in last night's game, that one
- 1:07:08Speaker 1: was an easy over. I think this one's going over
- 1:07:11Speaker 1: as well, man. Atlanta, they literally used every single one
- 1:07:14Speaker 1: of their relief pitchers yesterday across those two games. So
- 1:07:18Speaker 1: even though they actually didn't use any the day prior
- 1:07:21Speaker 1: to that, but every one of their relief pitchers got
- 1:07:23Speaker 1: used yesterday. So it's not a great bullpend situation. They're
- 1:07:26Speaker 1: gonna have to use relievers for a second straight day.
- 1:07:28Speaker 1: There's gonna be no question about that. Miami did have
- 1:07:32Speaker 1: three relievers that they that are active right now because
- 1:07:34Speaker 1: I think Bender is a whatever pat is. I don't
- 1:07:38Speaker 1: know what is that paternity bender. Bender was definitely doing
- 1:07:42Speaker 1: some bending, man, so I guess he's on paternity leave.
- 1:07:45Speaker 1: So they've called somebody else up, I guess from Miami,
- 1:07:47Speaker 1: But they still have a pretty used up bullpen. I
- 1:07:50Speaker 1: would say after yesterday using four relief pitchers. So even
- 1:07:54Speaker 1: though yeah, I would say Miami has the as far
- 1:07:56Speaker 1: as the side, Miami probably does have the bullpen edge here,
- 1:07:59Speaker 1: but still I don't like either bullpen and I don't
- 1:08:02Speaker 1: like either starter or cal Quantrell from Miami five point
- 1:08:05Speaker 1: two one ERA, one point three to seven whip not good.
- 1:08:08Speaker 1: He's been pretty much similar home in away doesn't really matter.
- 1:08:12Speaker 1: He was on a stretcher who's pitching pretty decently for
- 1:08:14Speaker 1: three straight games, including a start against Milwaukee which was
- 1:08:18Speaker 1: pretty good, but last time out really really did poorly
- 1:08:21Speaker 1: against Houston. Nine hits, a lout, seven on runs and
- 1:08:24Speaker 1: four to third, three walks, two strikeouts. So I would
- 1:08:27Speaker 1: say Quantrell not in good form right now. Man, He's
- 1:08:30Speaker 1: not a very good pitcher, and the Braves hit him
- 1:08:31Speaker 1: well even without a Kunya being there. A fifty six
- 1:08:35Speaker 1: at bats twelve to six strike a walk ratio is
- 1:08:37Speaker 1: not that great. Three fifty seven batting average ALLOTT one thousand,
- 1:08:41Speaker 1: sixty two oh ps Profar who had a really crazy
- 1:08:43Speaker 1: catch I believe, early in the game yesterday, robbing somebody
- 1:08:46Speaker 1: of a home run. Five for four team of two
- 1:08:49Speaker 1: on runs and three walks, So he does a lot
- 1:08:51Speaker 1: of damage if you want some player props there against
- 1:08:53Speaker 1: Quantrill Quandrill really does not have good numbers against Atlanta,
- 1:08:58Speaker 1: and Atlanta's got Joey Wentz pitching, and I don't trust
- 1:09:00Speaker 1: him either five point three four ERA, one point four
- 1:09:04Speaker 1: or five. I know he's been actually worse at home
- 1:09:06Speaker 1: to seven point four to six e RA at home.
- 1:09:10Speaker 1: I know he hasn't made a lot of deep outings.
- 1:09:13Speaker 1: Although since in Atlanta acquired him, he was a reliever. He's
- 1:09:16Speaker 1: been on multiple different teams this year match so that's
- 1:09:19Speaker 1: not a good sign that he's been all over the place.
- 1:09:21Speaker 1: He was on Minnesota, he was on Pittsburgh, Minnesota, and
- 1:09:24Speaker 1: then Atlanta, so basically all teams that are out of
- 1:09:27Speaker 1: it and they still don't want him. So what does
- 1:09:29Speaker 1: that tell you? Last time out he was battle though
- 1:09:32Speaker 1: it was against a good Milwaukee lineup, but it was
- 1:09:34Speaker 1: in this stadium. Five earned runs and five and a third,
- 1:09:37Speaker 1: seven hits, three strikeouts, one walk. That wasn't good. Prior
- 1:09:42Speaker 1: to his previous star which was his one really good
- 1:09:44Speaker 1: start against Kansas City, he didn't even make it five
- 1:09:48Speaker 1: innings in any of his other three appearances with Atlanta,
- 1:09:51Speaker 1: and even though two of them were shot out appearances,
- 1:09:53Speaker 1: he gave up a bunch of runs against Texas, three
- 1:09:56Speaker 1: earned runs and four and the third, so that's not
- 1:09:57Speaker 1: a good sign either. They're not a good offense, so
- 1:09:59Speaker 1: I don't think is gonna be particularly good here. And
- 1:10:02Speaker 1: the Mets only have twelve at bats. I know it's
- 1:10:04Speaker 1: a small sample size, but most of their hitters have
- 1:10:06Speaker 1: seen him before, and they have a three thirty three
- 1:10:08Speaker 1: average and eight oh one ops offense. That's not really
- 1:10:12Speaker 1: that good of a sign either. I think a lot
- 1:10:16Speaker 1: of that was just combined, like out of the Bullpend,
- 1:10:18Speaker 1: he actually pitched against him in the first game of
- 1:10:20Speaker 1: the season. I think out of the Bullpend he was
- 1:10:22Speaker 1: bad in that out and he went two winnings, didn't
- 1:10:25Speaker 1: give up any earned runs, but he gave up two
- 1:10:27Speaker 1: hundred runs. He walked two guys, give up two hits,
- 1:10:30Speaker 1: one strikeout, so he was part of the problem. I mean,
- 1:10:32Speaker 1: he put a bunch of guys on base, So over
- 1:10:35Speaker 1: is gonna be the play there man, Miami Atlanta. As
- 1:10:38Speaker 1: much as the market is going against it, I think
- 1:10:41Speaker 1: it's a decent price for it. We're getting number that's
- 1:10:44Speaker 1: below that key number nine, so that's gonna be that,
- 1:10:46Speaker 1: and then we do have two NFL preseason games. I mean,
- 1:10:49Speaker 1: it wouldn't be a Sunday without some NFL right, even
- 1:10:51Speaker 1: though yesterday was most of the games, which I keep saying, mam,
- 1:10:55Speaker 1: NFL preseason, I think these team totals are the way
- 1:10:58Speaker 1: to go where. I think all of those teams that
- 1:11:00Speaker 1: I gave out on the show, I think all of
- 1:11:02Speaker 1: them went over their team total if I'm not mistaken.
- 1:11:05Speaker 1: Yesterday again it was those teams where they had announced
- 1:11:08Speaker 1: that they were starting their starting quarterback. It was the
- 1:11:10Speaker 1: Broncos yesterday and the Jags, I think, and I think
- 1:11:14Speaker 1: the Jags lost the game, but it was so high scoring.
- 1:11:16Speaker 1: I think they went way over their team total anyway,
- 1:11:20Speaker 1: So I think those are the ways to approach those games.
- 1:11:22Speaker 1: And when you see, oh, this team is actually gonna
- 1:11:24Speaker 1: be going for it, trying to play offense and starting
- 1:11:27Speaker 1: their actual starter, going over that team total, I think
- 1:11:30Speaker 1: is the way to play these games. The games today
- 1:11:32Speaker 1: are not really as interesting though. We have Dolphins Bears
- 1:11:35Speaker 1: Bears down from two and a half to two as
- 1:11:37Speaker 1: a slight home favorite here. I believe neither team has
- 1:11:40Speaker 1: their starters playing in this game, So there's gonna be
- 1:11:43Speaker 1: no no Caleb Williams. You know, the starters are just
- 1:11:46Speaker 1: not playing in this game. Total has gone up to
- 1:11:48Speaker 1: thirty seven and a half, which, as I've ben saying,
- 1:11:50Speaker 1: thirty seven tends to be the key number in preseason.
- 1:11:53Speaker 1: But these numbers might have to get higher because historically
- 1:11:56Speaker 1: preseason Week one games have been really low scoring, but
- 1:12:01Speaker 1: this year that hasn't really been the case because we
- 1:12:03Speaker 1: see teams now that we have a shortened preseason with
- 1:12:07Speaker 1: three games instead of four and a longer regular season,
- 1:12:10Speaker 1: teams are wanting to get out, you know, get off
- 1:12:12Speaker 1: on the right foot sooner. So we see teams more
- 1:12:15Speaker 1: likely to play some starters for some of the game
- 1:12:19Speaker 1: in these preseason Week one games. Now Saints Chargers have
- 1:12:23Speaker 1: seen the total go up from thirty four and a
- 1:12:25Speaker 1: half to thirty eight. Now, neither of these teams is
- 1:12:27Speaker 1: gonna be playing their starters either, but I think the
- 1:12:31Speaker 1: Chargers actually have an edge in this game, so I
- 1:12:34Speaker 1: would lean to the Chargers in this game. They flip
- 1:12:37Speaker 1: from two point underdog to two point favorite. I mean,
- 1:12:40Speaker 1: why would they ever be a two point underdog against
- 1:12:42Speaker 1: the Saints. Your guess is as good as mine, even
- 1:12:45Speaker 1: though Chargers are playing backups. I mean, the Saints basically
- 1:12:48Speaker 1: don't even have a started quarterback, so it's like, whoever
- 1:12:51Speaker 1: the quarterback is for the Saints, does it even really matter?
- 1:12:54Speaker 1: Not really. Chargers have flipped to a two point favorite
- 1:12:57Speaker 1: now thoughlthough they have seventy two percent, takes only six
- 1:13:00Speaker 1: per cent of the cash. But I would probably still
- 1:13:02Speaker 1: lean to the Chargers if you want to go money line,
- 1:13:03Speaker 1: or if you want to go them over their team total.
- 1:13:06Speaker 1: Maybe I think the Chargers might be the way to
- 1:13:09Speaker 1: look in this game because they already have a game.
- 1:13:10Speaker 1: I said this with Detroit in their previous game, although
- 1:13:13Speaker 1: that game got shortened by a concussion or something. So again,
- 1:13:17Speaker 1: this is also stupid, man. I mean this is the NFL.
- 1:13:20Speaker 1: You're getting games that are just canceled and suspended for
- 1:13:23Speaker 1: just bullshit now for weather and for you know, I mean,
- 1:13:27Speaker 1: this is the NFL. Man, This never used to happen.
- 1:13:29Speaker 1: Everybody's just such a pussy now. And for one injury.
- 1:13:32Speaker 1: I know it was a series injury, it was concussion
- 1:13:34Speaker 1: protocol whatever, but still, I mean, that happens in the NFL.
- 1:13:37Speaker 1: You can't just stop everything for it. But whatever that happened.
- 1:13:41Speaker 1: But I said the Lions probably had a little bit
- 1:13:43Speaker 1: of an extra edge because they already played a preseason game.
- 1:13:46Speaker 1: And that's the same with the Chargers. They already played
- 1:13:48Speaker 1: a preseason game as well. They did look good in
- 1:13:51Speaker 1: that preseason game. They blew out the Lions, which might
- 1:13:53Speaker 1: me and the Chargers are gonna get the public action here,
- 1:13:56Speaker 1: which they kind of are, of course against the Saints.
- 1:13:58Speaker 1: Everybody knows how bad the Saints are gonna be as
- 1:14:00Speaker 1: well most likely, so Lions in that game that they
- 1:14:04Speaker 1: played probably were a better look than the Chargers are here.
- 1:14:07Speaker 1: But because the Chargers did already play that game, they
- 1:14:09Speaker 1: have that game out of their belt. They're in a
- 1:14:11Speaker 1: little bit better rhythm, I think because they've already played
- 1:14:13Speaker 1: a game. So I think the Chargers do have an
- 1:14:15Speaker 1: edge in this game. I will be I think it's
- 1:14:18Speaker 1: Heinike behind us center for the Chargers here. He'll be
- 1:14:23Speaker 1: their quarterback again. He was their quarterback in the first
- 1:14:25Speaker 1: game as well, so that's also maybe a little bit
- 1:14:27Speaker 1: of an advantage to the Chargers because he already played
- 1:14:29Speaker 1: a game as well. The Saints, I believe, are starting
- 1:14:32Speaker 1: Spencer Rattler in this game. The dude that looks like
- 1:14:36Speaker 1: he's I don't know, half albino, but a ginger. He's
- 1:14:40Speaker 1: like a ginger mulado man that almost sounds that sounds
- 1:14:43Speaker 1: like a Starbucks order. Yeah, I'll I'll have a tall
- 1:14:47Speaker 1: ginger mulado please. Yeah, he'll be playing in this game.
- 1:14:51Speaker 1: I think the Saints actual starter of this year is
- 1:14:53Speaker 1: probably gonna be Shaw, the guy that they drafted, even
- 1:14:57Speaker 1: though he's like twenty seven years old, the Louisville quarterback.
- 1:15:00Speaker 1: But I don't even know if that's definitive. So I
- 1:15:04Speaker 1: hesitate to actually want to give one to want to
- 1:15:06Speaker 1: actually play the Chargers, or you know, to give it
- 1:15:08Speaker 1: out as a play on the show or whatever, because
- 1:15:10Speaker 1: I mean, I haven't given out any preseason I highly
- 1:15:13Speaker 1: likely it's highly likely I won't, and I think the
- 1:15:15Speaker 1: first game in preseason is actually easier to figure out
- 1:15:18Speaker 1: than the other games. All the other games are gonna
- 1:15:20Speaker 1: be a real crapshoot, so I'm I probably won't. But
- 1:15:23Speaker 1: the one reason why the Saints might have a little
- 1:15:26Speaker 1: bit of a you know, they might actually be able
- 1:15:28Speaker 1: to play decently in this game is because they I
- 1:15:29Speaker 1: think they might have a quarterback battle going on, So
- 1:15:32Speaker 1: I don't know if they've definitely decided on who their
- 1:15:34Speaker 1: quarterback is, so their potential starting quarterbacks will be in
- 1:15:38Speaker 1: the mix most likely, So you might actually see both
- 1:15:41Speaker 1: of them come into this game, I don't even know,
- 1:15:43Speaker 1: just to see what they have and either in both
- 1:15:45Speaker 1: of them. So maybe a little bit of a reason
- 1:15:48Speaker 1: to stay away from the Chargers in that game, especially
- 1:15:51Speaker 1: once they're now a favorite. So anyway, that's gonna do
- 1:15:54Speaker 1: it for me and man, have a good day everybody. Well,
- 1:15:57Speaker 1: the one play today once again is the old for
- 1:16:00Speaker 1: in the Braves and Marlin's Game, Marlin's Braves over the
- 1:16:04Speaker 1: eight and a half. That's gonna do it, even though
- 1:16:05Speaker 1: I'm fading the market. Read learn to tone on Twitter,
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