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The Death Of Journalism Episode One Hundred Sixty Seven: The Trap Is Set · The Death Of Journalism

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Welcome to episode number one hundred and sixty seven of the Death of Journalism Podcasts.
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My name is John Zigler. I'm your host on today's show, the
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State of the Presidential Race and a preview of the first Biden Trump debate,
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plus an interview, by her request, of my twelve year old daughter Grace.
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Now due to our annual family trip to Smite. This will be the
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second of two episodes that were taped several days before they were released, and
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this one, in particular was taped a week before the first presidential debate between
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President Biden and former President Donald Trump. So I want to make sure that
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that's clear for the sake of context in case something bizarre and newsworthy happens between
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this taping and when that transpires. But because I'm taping so far in advance
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due to travel restrictions and internet in capability of having internet in your Semente National
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Park, and so therefore unable to do any sort of updates for the podcast,
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I want to do what is going to be an abbreviated version of this
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podcast, episode one sixty seven into two parts. The first part will be
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a state of the presidential race and a preview of the debate. The second
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part will be an interview with my daughter Grace, who is twelve years old
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and who heard about the interview that we did in episode one sixty six with
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her mother, and she made a special request to be interviewed, and I
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think it probably turned out well enough to share with you on this podcast,
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and it'll make her happy. So it all kind of fit together. So
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that's the reason why we're doing this episode of the podcast the way that we
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are. And so let me start with the current state of the presidential race
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as we head into this first bait that will air on CNN in just a
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couple of days after the release of this episode. I have been of the
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belief for quite a while that there are two seemingly cont contradictory realities about the
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presidential race that if the election was today, Donald Trump would win. But
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gone to my head, I believe that Joe Biden is likely to win a
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very very close electoral college victory. And there are a couple of reasons for
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why I believe that, mostly having to do with the power of incumbency and
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the power of the news media. Obviously, Joe Biden has both of those
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very much on his side, and the news media, while they've lost a
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lot of power, still has I think enough influence to maybe drag Joe Biden
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over the finish line, especially if they're able to sew together a narrative that
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maybe the economy is improving, maybe it's not as bad, maybe the as
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people some people think, maybe the worst is over. And you know,
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constant reminders about Trump being a convicted felon and you know, basically pulling out
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all the stops in order to prop Biden up. Plus, Biden has the
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ability to give amnesty to all sorts of illegal aliens and the spouses of people
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who are able to vote and therefore essentially buy their votes. And we've already
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seen what he's been doing with vote buying when it comes to college loan forgiveness.
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There's all sorts of things that a president that has the media on his
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side and is therefore free to do basically whatever the hell he wants. And
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where we have data now that is so good in being able to target the
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very few swing vot that exist in the very few states that matter, I
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believe that that's going to have an influence. I believe that all of that
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is going to be worth a couple of points, and it will only take
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a couple of points from Donald Trump to Joe Biden to turn what would be
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today a narrow Trump victory into what would be in November a narrow Donald Trump
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loss and Joe Biden victory. Plus I also believe that there is good reason
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to think that some of the current polling is biased towards Donald Trump. I
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don't have any way to prove that. There's no way to prove that until
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you actually have an election, but I do believe, based upon the special
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elections that have occurred, some of which have happened in these key swing states,
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that it does appear as if republic bins are underperforming at every level.
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Now, you may say, but that's not Donald Trump. Donald Trump isn't
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on the ballot. He's special, he's magic. There may be some semblance
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of reality to that, but I think that's a dangerous thing to count on
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if you're someone who wants Donald Trump to win. And I do find it
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pretty hilarious that Trump's supporters online now suddenly believe that polls are gospel. I
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find this very telling, very hilarious, and so indicative of a Trump cult
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member where they don't even accept actual results from presidential elections as being real.
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Yet usually liberal academic institutions or media outlets or both putting out polls that you
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like. Because they're showing Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania or Michigan or Wisconsin by one
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or two points, you suddenly decided that that's gold, that that's truth,
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that's that's the gospel, I mean. And this is a real phenomenon.
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I've seen it myself on Twitter all the time, where I'm like, wait
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a minute, why are you guys accepting these polls as being so reliable that
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you know that a one or two point advantage in a huge state like Pennsylvania,
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Michigan, or to a lesser degree, Wisconsin is something you can count
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on, you know, five months from now. That seems ridiculous to me,
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especially when you guys don't even accept the results of an actual election that
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you don't like. And so I am still of this belief. And there's
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more data that I think kind of fits my theory on the idea that if
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the election was today, before this first debate and before whatever else is going
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to happen this summer into early fall, that Donald Trump would win the election.
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Was today, I think he would probably win the election because I think
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he would win one at least one, that's all it would take out of
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Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. I don't know which one is the most
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likely. I'm just going by the odds. If you're consistently up by one,
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two, three points in those three states, statistically it would be difficult
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unless there is very systematic bias in the polling in your direction, it would
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be statistically very difficult for you to lose all three of those states today.
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And I do believe that North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada are
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today virtual locks for Donald Trump. And so if that's the case, then
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all he needs is one out of Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania, or
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he needs something weird like winning Maine or winning the second congressional district in the
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Brass And there's now been, you know, a lot of talk about Minnesota
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because there's been a couple of polls indicating that Trump has a shot in Minnesota.
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I'm not buying that. I find it interesting, especially when you consider
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what we now know about the most recent poll in Iowa, with Trump winning
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by eighteen, which is a neighboring state with similar demographics, not exactly the
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same. Minnesota as a much more liberal state than Iowa. But you also
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see Trump having continual strength, although not overwhelming strength, in Wisconsin, which
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is another neighboring state with similar demographics. And so you know, if you
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extrapolate those demographics from the Iowa poll and the Minnesota polling, there's an argument
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to be made that maybe Trump has a shot there. I'm not convinced to
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that. There's a most recent poll out the day that I'm taping this episode
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of the podcast that shows that Biden is winning Minnesota by six and Trump only
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has forty one percent. To me, that's that's not gonna hack it.
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I mean, it's enough to make the Biden people maybe sweat, maybe give
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a little bit more attention to Minnesota than they would ordinarily. But I'm not
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buying. I'm not buying Minnesota. I'm not buying Virginia. I'm certainly not
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buying New York. There was a pullout that got some Trump people excited because
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Trump is at like forty forty one percent in New York and is only down
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by like eight points or something, and somehow that's an indication that maybe New
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York is in play, that's bullshit, that's never gonna happen. I'm still
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very much of the belief that when the dust settles, we're still talking about
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the exact same swing states North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin,
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Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and then the main possibility in the Nebraska congressional
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district. Those are really the only states or congressional districts that matter to who's
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going to win this. And I have been a bit confused over the last
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couple of days by what I'm now perceiving as a disparity in the direction of
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the national popular vote polling and the state by state polling. And basically what
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I think is pretty obvious now is we've allowed the post conviction era to kind
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of settle and find out what impact of any that had on popular opinion.
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It's pretty clear that Trump lost about two points in the national popular vote polling.
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In fact, by at least one calculation, there is now the first
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time that Joe Biden is leading just barely in twenty twenty four. The national
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popular vote average of polls. It depends on which polls you use. But
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for all intents and purposes, it's a tie in the national polling between Trump
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and Biden, and Trump had been up by about two points. Now,
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is that because of the post conviction era? That would seemingly be the most
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logical explanation. That doesn't seem to be any other rationale for that. That's
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a little bit more than the noise that you might expect to happen in the
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race for it to drift two points. I think it's not huge, but
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it's at least noticeable, and it's noteworthy, and it's potentially significant in a
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race that is this incredibly close. So I do think, and by the
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way, it's when you look at the internals on these polls, including the
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Fox News poll that just came out the day of this taping, which has
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Biden up by two points nationally against Trump, what you're seeing is that there's
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a reason for the shift, and that is that independent voters. Now there
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aren't that many independent voters anymore, but they are going to decide this election.
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Independent voters have shifted very dramatically. I shouldn't say very dramatically, I
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should say dramatically. They have significantly shifted from Donald Trump being their favorite to
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Joe Biden being their favorite. With the only major news event that has occurred
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between those two events, those two happenings, those two realities, is,
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of course, Donald Trump being convicted on thirty four felony accounts. So I
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think you can make a very very strong argument that the convictions, well they
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didn't have nearly the impact that Democrats hoped for or expected. They did have
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an influence on independent voters. Trump was leading with independent voters nationally before the
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convictions. He's now losing with independent voters, and that is the source of
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the two point overall national popular vote shift from the lead of Donald Trump to
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now effectively being tied with Joe Biden. However, we're not seeing that same
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shift in the key swing state polls. There's been slight sot in the lead
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that Donald Trump has had, for instance, maybe in Nevada, maybe in
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Georgia, maybe in North Carolina, but he was winning by eight or nine
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points at one juncture not that long ago. Now it seems to be down
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to more like five or six points. So you could make the argument that
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there's been some softening in Trump's support or lead, but that could also be
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just statistical noise. The reality is he still has a lead in those key
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what I call southern swing states North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
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That is outside the modern of the margin of error. And this is
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even more important to me than outside the margin of error. It's consistent.
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Virtually every poll is coming in with essentially the same result, and Trump has
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over forty five percent support in almost all of those polls. Those are the
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key things that I look for. Is it consistent and what's Trump's level of
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support, because I'm not buying Trump pulling upsets when he might be close,
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but he's only pulling forty forty one, forty two percent, Especially if it's
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a head to head with just him and Biden, that's not going to happen
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because of the factor of incumbency and all the advantages that Biden has coming down
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the stretch, plus Trump's toxicity and what have you. So I have not
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seen the same softening in the state swing state polls from Trump's perspective, as
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you can clearly make an argument has happened on the national popular vote level,
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And of course it's only the state polling that matters. The national popular vote
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means basically nothing, And so what's the bottom line significance of this, Well,
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maybe nothing, But I've all also mentioned several times in this podcast there's
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been a phenomenon that I have noticed my entire life of watching political polling and
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in participating in political polling as an analyst and someone who's actually commissioned several major
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polls myself, and I've never been able to figure this out. I've never
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even had anyone in the industry be able to explain this to me. But
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I have noticed that there has been this phenomenon that if there is a shift
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in public opinion, you see it first in the national popular vote vote polling
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before you see it in the state by state polling. This never made any
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sense to me. You would think that you would pick up on trends more
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quickly in a smaller geographic area, where in theory, your margin of error
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is smaller because you're dealing with a smaller population. So if you pull a
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thousand or two thous thousand people in Georgia, that's way more significant than if
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you pull the same number of people in the United States as a whole.
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So I've never understood this. It's counterintuitive, but it seemingly happens all the
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time. And you may recall that I predicted that this would be a problem
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that the DeSantis campaign was going to face for a long period of time.
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When I was sounding the alarm belts during the Republican primary process and I was
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telling you that DeSantis was in huge trouble, a lot of people were retorting
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to me saying, well, zig, yeah, he's losing support. DeSantis
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is on the national level, but that doesn't matter. All that matters is
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Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, whatever. And I kept saying,
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just wait, just wait, it's gonna happen, and eventually it did,
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and you know, the state by state polling eventually followed what was happening on
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the national level. Is that what's going to happen here? I don't know,
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obviously, I don't know, but I think it could. I think
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the trend line is favoring Biden. But then we have this big theoretical event
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coming up this week, which is the first debate, so you know that
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is coming at a critical juncture. It's going to set the tone for the
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rest of this election cycle. There's only one other current debate that's scheduled and
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so in theory, this debate is going to be a big deal. Just
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to put a boat on my current view of the state of the race.
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You know, my biggest fear. I'm a pessimist by nature, as you
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know, my biggest fear since I don't have a dog in this hunt,
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I don't have anyone to root for to win. But one of my greatest
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fears, in the worst possible case scenario that I can think of, is
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very much in play. I hate to say it, but to me,
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the worst possible scenario here is as follows. The perception is that Trump's going
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to win. By the way, the betting markets I think are completely out
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of their mind in overvaluing the chances of Trump winning at this point, because
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if you go simply buy the betting markets, Trump is clearly the favorite.
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Now I don't buy that at all, but that matters, and it matters
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in one way in particular, which is the perception of Trump voters as they
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go to the polls. Number One, I think it could lead to some
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overconfidence and maybe not as energized to turnout. But I'm even more concerned if
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you're a Trump supporter that the perception that Trump's going to win is clearly not
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going to allow Democrats to get complacent like they did in twenty sixteen. People
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forget that that that played a huge role in why Trump beat Hillary in twenty
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sixteen. Democrats were clearly complacent, especially in Wisconsin, or they just didn't
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show up and she didn't show up either. And so that's not going to
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happen with this perception that Trump's going to win. But I think it's even
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more dangerous than that. So here's my worst possible scenario from my very unusual
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seat as someone who doesn't have anyone to root for in this race. So
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we have Trump perceived as the favorite when he really shouldn't be. And this
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creates two realities along with it. Number One, if he were to lose,
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it would reinvigorate, maybe on steroids, the entire stolen election narrative,
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and maybe forever forever convince millions of Republican voters that voting isn't worth it.
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Why bother, it's all rigged, it's all fixed. And you know,
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Trump's going to be screaming bloody murder if it's perceived that he was supposed to
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win and it turns out that he doesn't it's obviously because it's fixed, and
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so in the long run, this destroys what's left of the Republican Party because
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millions of Trump fanatic cult members decide it's no longer worth voting. So that's
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part one of this nightmare scenario. Consistent with this scenario is that because Trump
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is favored and perceived as going to win, I think it greatly hinders the
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Republican Party's ability to take back the US Senate and hold on to the US
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House, because I think there are a lot of voters out there who,
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if they think Trump is going to win, there's not the same imperative to
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vote for the Republican either senatorial candidate or congressional candidate. And they may even
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feel, some moderate voters that they need to have a check on Trump,
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so they vote for a check on Trump, and they thinking that Trump's going
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to win, they don't like Biden, and then they end up getting Biden
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with effectively a Democratic Senate because it ends up fifty to fifty in the Senate
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and the President of the Senate is Kamala Harris and she's breaking all ties,
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and who knows Murkowski or Collins on the Republican side flip over to the Democratic
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side. Probably Murkowski would be more likely from Alaska to do that, and
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Democrats fully control the Senate, and I think Republicans are going to lose the
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House anyway. So that's how you end up with Joe Biden getting re elected
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with effectively a Democratic Senate and a Democratic House, which is the worst possible
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and Republican voters convinced it's not worth voting in the future. That would be
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the worst possible scenario, And while we're not there yet, that one is
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very much in play because I think that the chances of Trump winning this,
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while significant, are currently overrated for the reasons that I've already described. But
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I acknowledge that this debate could underline could change some things. So let's talk
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about the debate as I see it in what's going to happen in the next
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couple of days. I'm a little bit hesitant to give my take on the
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debate because it happens to be consistent with the conventional wisdom, which I am
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a big believer, is almost always wrong, especially when it comes to politics,
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especially in the era of Donald Trump. The conventional wisdom is always wrong.
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But yet I'm currently at least a week ahead of time. I'm in
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what I perceive to be the camp of the conventional wisdom, which always makes
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me very uncomfortable. And that conventional wisdom is I Donald Trump is walking into
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a trap in this debate, and I think there's very good reason to believe
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that. Now. The first reason why I think Trump maybe walking into a
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trap is because of expectations. Let's be clear, Expectations are everything in life,
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and they are almost everything when it comes to presidential debates. Expectations dictate
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everything, and partly because of Trump and the right wing media jumping all over
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this, Joe Biden has dimension narrative, and frankly, I don't know for
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sure whether or not the liberal media has knowingly played into this or not,
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whether they've instinctively defended Joe Biden on these so called cheap fakes, which is
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just a ridiculous thing that they've made up to describe real videos of Joe Biden
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seemingly being out of it. I don't know, oh whether or not they've
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done this on purpose to draw attention to it, to reduce expectations for Biden,
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although they're defending him saying that he's perfectly fine, I don't know,
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but the effect is the same. The effect is that all of this discussion
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has reduced the expectation for Joe Biden's performance to ridiculously low levels. I mean
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literally ridiculously low levels, levels that I don't think he's going to have a
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problem exceeding. This bar is so low he could stumble, literally stumble over
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it and not knock it down. And that's what I think is the most
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likely scenario. We saw it already with the State of the Union address.
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Remember we were told that Biden was w wasn't even be able to get through
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it. And you know, while it was a terrible speech and he led
24:52
his ass off and he was wrong about everything, he was able to douce,
24:57
you know, do a decent performance. He had energy. There wasn't
25:02
any really horrifically humiliating moment. I mean, even conservatives had to acknowledge that
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Joe Biden showed that he could get it together on a big stage and he
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benefited from low expectations. Well, frankly, I think the expectations for this
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situation might be even lower for Joe Biden, and the expectations for Donald Trump,
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consequently, I think are higher than he might be able to obtain.
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So from an expectations standpoint, Biden has already won. He's already won.
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Now, of course, this can backfire if, by some chance, he
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does so poorly that he doesn't even exceed the very low bar of expectations,
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because then people will go, aha, see we told you so, this
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guy can't be president, especially not for another four years. That is a
25:57
theoretical possibility as far as one of the scenarios at play here, But I
26:03
just don't think it's that likely. I'm a big believer, as I've said
26:07
many times on this podcast, that when you have a guy, even at
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eighty one, who is going to spend a week in camp David relaxing and
26:15
preparing and sleeping and getting ready for one evening of an hour and a half,
26:23
not even two hours, an hour and a half of being on live
26:27
television with his opponent under circumstances that are clearly designed to benefit him, I
26:34
think he's going to be able to pull it together. I mean, I
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mean, frankly, the expectations should be very high. Six days of rest,
26:42
relaxation in preparation for an hour and a half, you should be spectacular.
26:48
So I really do not believe. And you know they're gonna have You're
26:53
gonna have right wing media people say that, oh, he was drugged up
26:56
or some magical drug with Joe Biden was given to look much better than he
27:02
really was. I don't buy that. I'm sure he's going to be on
27:03
caffeine or something else. I have no doubt about that. But I am
27:10
an absolute, big believer in the idea that they're going to make sure that
27:15
Joe Biden can get it together for an hour and a half. So I
27:18
don't think that the you know, spitting up on himself, pooping himself,
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freezing on stage. I don't think those scenarios are at all likely. And
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that's really the bar of expectation, as pathetic as it is for Joe Biden.
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So that's the first part that I think is a trap for Trump.
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The second part is that the rules of this debate are I think absurdly favoring
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Joe Biden. Again, this is part where I get nervous because I'm agreeing
27:52
with the conventional wisdom. This was laid out in a viral tweet by a
27:59
former n analyst by the name of Chris Sozilla. Chris Sozilla is a guy
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who I know a little bit because he went to Georgetown, as I did.
28:10
I met him at a Georgetown alumni event, saw him speak. I
28:14
don't particularly think he's that smart, but he's not an imbecile, and he
28:19
tries to be fair. And he tweeted out the following message. This was
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actually a week ago now, but it's been viewed by over six million people
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because I think it was seen as a liberal former CNN guy creating the impression
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and the narrative that CNN has set up these rules to favor Joe Biden.
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And by the way, let's be clear about something that I don't think it's
28:48
gotten enough attention, and that is that this whole debate event is unprecedented in
28:53
the way that it's happening. It's unprecedented that it's occurring at the end of
28:59
June, which a lot of people, I think, delusionally think is an
29:02
indication that this is a setup to get rid of Joe Biden. If he
29:04
doesn't perform, well, that's not going to happen. There is no option
29:07
there, There is no alternative scenario for Democrats. They have no other viable
29:12
option. The only option is Kamala Harris and her coming in at the last
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minute under very contrived circumstances is going to reek of desperation. They ain't going
29:23
to do that, and she would have a less of a chance of beating
29:26
Donald Trump than Joe Biden would currently. So unless it's really really horrific,
29:33
that scenario is not realistic, And anyone who's telling you it is is either
29:37
an idiot or their clickbaiting. It's one or the other. So that's not
29:44
why this debate was scheduled for the end of June, but it was scheduled
29:48
outside of the normal process. This was not done through the Debate Commission.
29:55
This was done by the campaigns on their own, which is the first thing
30:00
that's very sketchy about this whole situation. And as in an indicasion that the
30:04
Biden team was afraid of having to abide by the normal rules of the Presidential
30:11
Debate Commission. I think they thought, Okay, what if we go outside
30:15
the box here? Can we out negotiate the Trump people? Because the Trump
30:19
people are just so desperate to have a debate, so confident that they're going
30:23
to win because their candidate is an egomaniac and their candidate believes that Joe Biden
30:30
can't pull two or three sentences together in a public forum, and so therefore
30:34
it the rules don't matter. Well, if that was what was going through
30:38
the minds of the Biden people, I think they won these negotiations because these
30:45
are the rules as outlined in the tweet I referred to number one, Mike's
30:49
cut off when not your turn to speak advantage Biden. I would say that's
30:56
a huge advantage for Joe Biden for no other reason other than we all know
31:03
Trump is very likely to try to interrupt people, and that's one of the
31:08
ways you're going to get Joe Biden off his game. I mean, I
31:14
do believe that he has a stuttering issue, and that's something that Biden would
31:19
be very, very vulnerable to and not used to at all, having people
31:25
or someone in particular confront him by interrupting him. Well, if your MIC's
31:30
not on, you can't do that, and if you do, you're going
31:33
to look like a complete jackass, you know, and turning the mic back
31:38
on and off. You know who's going to make that decision, Well,
31:41
someone at CNN, And I'm not sure I would necessarily trust somebody to be
31:45
fair about that part either, So that gives CNN quite a bit of control
31:51
over this situation. But I absolutely agree that Mike's being cut off is a
31:57
huge advantage to Biden because it's only Trump. Not only does it mean that
32:02
Biden is protected from being interrupted, it's only Trump. Let's be clear,
32:07
it's only Trump that who could theoretically get off a really good line while interrupting
32:15
the other candidate. You know, something really funny, something really memorable,
32:20
something that really tears Biden down where where he pauses and Trump jumps in there.
32:27
Well, now that has been taken off the table. Biden was never
32:30
going to be able to do that because Biden is not as quick a thinker
32:35
as Trump as at his best is. So this from a defensive standpoint,
32:40
is very good for Biden, and it eliminates a a I think of significant
32:46
offensive weapon from Trump's arsenal. So why the Trump people agreed to this,
32:53
I have no idea, but they did. And that's the first rule that
32:58
Chris Sizilla decided to put out there as an indication that he thinks that these
33:06
rules are favored towards Joe Biden. Number two, no live audience advantage Biden.
33:14
I agree with that too. Obviously depends on who's in the audience.
33:17
But because Trump has stronger supporters than Biden does, Biden has no cult.
33:24
I mean, unless you really went out of your way to keep Trump's supporters
33:30
out of a potential audience, which would be very, very difficult without getting
33:34
caught. Unless you did that, an audience would be inherently favorable to Donald
33:39
Trump because you would get some super partisan Trump fans. Not to mention,
33:45
Trump knows how to play to the crowd and again has the ability to potentially
33:49
get off a good line, a funny line, a cutting line that the
33:52
audience might react to. And also not having the audience there diminishes the impact
34:00
of any line that might be said by Trump that may fit that description.
34:07
It's not going to have the same Shazam factor if it's met with silence.
34:12
Now, that's not one hundred percent for sure. I can certainly see a
34:17
scenario where not having an audience could actually hurt either candidate, but probably more
34:28
likely Biden, because sometimes silence can be really powerful. I mean, obviously,
34:35
when you hit somebody with a really great line or a good point,
34:37
or you cut them down, you'd love to hear the crowd reaction to give
34:43
it an exclamation point. But especially given the way Biden operates and is lack
34:50
of mental acuity, if Trump does it correctly or it could work in the
34:55
other direction and there's total silence, then that could have a major impact,
35:01
that could leave a mark. Now, of course, Biden has an advantage
35:06
there because this is a CNN debate and the moderators are Jake Tapper and Dana
35:14
Bash, both of whom are clear Trump critics. So that's when you may
35:19
see Tapper or Bash rush to the aid of Joe Biden to fill in the
35:24
silence and change the subject. So that's yet another advantage that Biden has given
35:32
the makeup and the rules of this debate. Number four two commercial breaks advantage
35:40
Biden. I agree that that's a huge advantage for Joe Biden. For there
35:45
to be two commercial breaks in an hour and a half long debate is I
35:52
think an absolutely baffling thing for the Trump people to agree to, because Trump
36:00
is going to be easily able, and I'm someone who thinks he is diminished
36:04
in comparison to twenty sixteen or even twenty twenty just by virtue of his age,
36:09
but he is very good at these long form whether it's an interview or
36:16
the rally. He's not going to get tired after an hour and a half.
36:21
He doesn't need the commercial breaks. Biden will benefit potentially dramatically from the
36:28
commercial breaks. So I don't know why the Trump people agreed to this condition
36:34
either. And then finally number four, no pre written notes advantage Trump.
36:40
I'm not one hundred percent sure I agree with Szilla God, I don't know
36:47
why I screw that name up. Let me pick that up, Soliza,
36:52
let me pick that up. Three two one. I'm not one hundred percent
36:57
sure I agree with Solisa about that particular element of the rules advantaging Trump.
37:05
It could be the case. I understand why he thinks it's the case,
37:10
because you know, Trump is used to going without major notes. Biden is
37:15
not. So I get why blink reaction. You would say that's good for
37:22
Trump, and it may end up being good for Trump, but we'll see.
37:28
I'm skeptical that that's necessarily good for either. It's maybe a little bit
37:34
more interesting. It is interesting that the Biden people agreed to that, because
37:38
you would think that that would give them a little bit more fear to not
37:43
have Biden at least have some note cards or some sort of script if he
37:47
got in big trouble to go back to. So I can understand why people
37:53
would think that that's an advantage for Trump. But the bottom line conclusion of
37:58
this tweet, which is why it went by, was surprised Trump team agreed
38:02
to these rules, honestly, and I agree with that. I don't know
38:07
why they did this. I think they had way more leverage than would be
38:14
indicated by what they got in negotiations, because remember this was agreed to before
38:21
Trump was convicted, while Trump was clearly in the lead, and where there
38:27
is already a narrative out there that Joe Biden has dementia and so therefore he
38:31
can't possibly dodge debates, debates that he said he was more than willing to
38:38
do. And so I thought that the Trump team had a lot of leverage
38:44
and could have crafted the rules more in their favor than they did, especially
38:50
since they were going outside the normal procedure of the Presidential Debate Commission. But
38:55
Trump has never been a great negotiator. I mean, that's one of the
39:00
great myths about him. He thinks he's a great negotiator, but I've never
39:05
seen any real evidence of it. So it is what it is at this
39:08
point, and I hate going along with the conventional wisdom, but I think
39:14
this is effectively a trap for Donald Trump, a trap because of the expectations
39:19
being so low for Joe Biden, a trap because the rules are so clearly
39:23
in Biden's favor, for the reasons that I've already discussed, and because it's
39:29
on CNN and it's hosted by two people who are clear Trump critics that are
39:35
going to be able to come to the rescue of Joe Biden if he gets
39:37
in trouble. Now, the fact that it's on CNN and Tapper and Bash
39:42
have been very, very critical of Trump. You know, in the old
39:45
days, the olden days may have played the olden days, meaning like five
39:50
ten years ago, may have actually played the Trump's advantage because there used to
39:53
be some semblance of guilt or a concern about how things might look on the
40:00
part of the news media. And so if you know you're vulnerable to allegations
40:05
of extreme bias, you might go overboard to make sure that you don't look
40:09
biased. I'm not sure we still live in that world, but there may
40:14
be some of that. I could see where Tapper and Bash might at least
40:17
try to make it look like they're being fair, because it's so obvious that
40:22
CNN is not pro Trump and that they themselves have been very anti Trump in
40:28
their own coverage of him over the last eight years. So I could see
40:32
that maybe mitigating the advantage that having a debate on CNN hosted by two Trump
40:39
critics would seemingly have for Biden. But overall, I'm sorry, it's CNN,
40:46
it's Tapper and Bash. Biden ain't gonna get a raw deal here,
40:52
and you know, most of the audience is going to stick around for at
40:57
least some of the post debate coverage with gives CNN even more power because that
41:02
you know that first fifteen minutes, who are they going to have on to
41:07
discuss the debate. Well, it's going to be their biggest stars, and
41:12
all their biggest stars are liberals, So you know CNN is going to be
41:16
able to control this. The narrative of this in numerous very significant ways,
41:22
all of which I think pretty much eliminate the Biden disaster scenario again, barring
41:29
a complete physical mental meltdown live on stage, that even the media can't spin
41:36
for Joe Biden, and I don't think that's a likely scenario. So I
41:39
think from every aspect of this, this is bad news for Donald Trump.
41:45
And let's be also clear about another thing about the history of this. Trump
41:51
fans don't want to accept this, but Donald Trump has never won a general
41:55
election presidential debate. The polls proven this, the scientific polls, not the
42:01
online polls that immediately happened after a debate, you know, where Trump fans
42:07
inundate the responses, and it looks like Trump won in the scientific polling.
42:14
Trump lost every debate to Hillary Clinton. He lost the debates to Joe Biden.
42:19
And you know, he hasn't debated since he skipped all the debates on
42:24
the Republican side because he was afraid of debating Rond De Santis. So this
42:30
idea that somehow Trump is a great debater is total mythology. He did well
42:37
in some debates in twenty sixteen because he was the star and there were too
42:43
many people on the stage and he only had to talk for a very short
42:46
period of time, and he got off a few lines, and he was,
42:51
you know, the elephant that was in the China Shop or the Bull
42:53
in the China Shop, and everyone thought that was entertaining and he was something
42:59
people seen before. That's not gonna work in this situation. This is Mono
43:05
Amano. You're going into the lions Den on CNN. The rules are set
43:08
against you and the expectations are very much set up for your opponent's advantage.
43:15
So when you think about the history of Donald Trump and debating, I don't
43:22
think that bodes well for Trump here either. And so you know, my
43:27
prediction in this is want I want to say one more thing before I get
43:31
to my prediction, because I always try to be as objective and fair and
43:37
honest as I possibly can. If I was advising these two candidates, which
43:42
obviously I'm not, I mean, to me, if I'm advising Donald Trump,
43:45
and I have no idea if anyone has the balls around Trump to even
43:50
make this point. But to me, Trump has to make this not about
43:55
him, but about the voters who will decide this election, and that's a
44:01
very difficult shore for him. That to me is how you should grade how
44:07
Trump does here. There's going to be the how Biden performs and whether he
44:12
seems up to the job. That's going to be important. That might be
44:15
the most important thing in the entire debate. But then there's the question of
44:21
does Trump seem like he gets it? That is it not always going to
44:27
be about him. He needs to make it not about his grievances, not
44:32
about January sixth, not about the twenty twenty election, not about how unfair
44:37
his trial was. Although it's perfectly fine for him to make that case,
44:43
but this has got to be about the swing voter, the swing voter in
44:47
Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania. Those are the people he has to speak to.
44:54
He has to give them a reason to abandon Joe Biden and give him
44:59
another chance. And you know, I'm not positive at all that Donald Trump
45:06
is capable intellectually, or mentally or psychologically in doing that. I also don't
45:09
know that he's capable of making the argument on policy. To me, the
45:15
number one issue that he needs to deal with is right in his wheelhouse,
45:22
illegal immigration. But knocking down this bogus idea that somehow it's his fault that
45:29
nothing is passed in Congress, he needs to flip that on Joe Biden and
45:32
say, look, buddy, the border was under control. When I was
45:37
president, you did this, this, and this to cause the border to
45:40
get out of control. You can't blame this on me. Now. You
45:44
have all sorts of things you could do. I know because I did them
45:46
when I was president, and you're just trying to use this as a political
45:51
escape hatch for you. Allowing a massive invasion in the United States that we're
45:57
going to be paying for for generations to It's going to fundamentally change who we
46:01
are as a nation. That is the argument that Trump needs to make on
46:07
that. I doubt that Trump is going to be capable of doing that,
46:10
and that's how he needs to be graded. Is if you're looking at this
46:15
from the standpoint of who's going to win the debate and who's going to actually
46:20
help their cause in the election? Did Trump make it about him or did
46:24
he make it about what swing voters make care about in the key states that
46:30
are going to decide this election. Now, as far as my prediction,
46:36
I predict that Trump's not going to do that particularly effectively. I predict that
46:40
Joe Biden is not going to crap his pants literally or figuratively. I think
46:45
that there will be some moments that are going to be batshit crazy that are
46:52
going to go viral, probably for both sides, but that in the end,
46:59
even though there's to be all sorts of analysis and there's going to be
47:02
the end of the world, you know, predictions probably on both sides,
47:07
Oh my god, this is a game changer that in the end, much
47:12
like the thirty four confelony convictions of Donald Trump, that we're not going to
47:16
see the race fundamentally altered by this, because that's been the most recent history
47:22
of general election debates where even debates where one side does much better than the
47:29
other, it doesn't really impact the course of the race, of the polling
47:32
very much. And a lot of people I think are right to make the
47:37
example of what happened during the twenty twenty two midterm elections. I mean John
47:42
Fetterman literally could not put two or three sentences together during a debate. It
47:47
was called by many conservative commentators a game ender for his campaign. It was
47:53
that bad because of his physical debilitating elements related to I guess what. He
48:01
had a stroke or whatever it was they called it, and his recovery had
48:07
not happened as quickly as they had hoped, and it was universally accepted that
48:12
Fetterman was toast because of that debate performance, and he won fairly easily.
48:19
So my fallback position on these debates is, while they're interesting, they're nowhere
48:25
near as important as they used to be, partially because there are very few
48:30
truly undecided and independent voters, and also because the media landscape has changed so
48:37
dramatically. Both sides now have media apparatuses that can spin a debate in their
48:45
direction no matter what the reality is, so nobody ever really has to accept
48:50
defeat. And also, the audience, while it's going to be huge,
48:53
is not going to be as large as the audiences used to be for debates
48:57
because there's just too much other stuff to do this day and age. I
49:00
mean, when you had you know, Reagan and Carter, Reagan and Mondale,
49:06
basically the whole nation was watching that because there was nothing else to do.
49:10
There were very few television channels, and people listen to radio and then
49:15
they read the newspaper the next day. That's not the case today, So
49:19
almost inherently any event of this type has lost its punch. So I'm going
49:27
to predict that, well, there's going to be all sorts of strange and
49:30
crazy things that will happen and being analyzed after this debate, and we'll do
49:36
it on this podcast when I return from my vacation in Yosemite. That the
49:39
bottom line is likely to be very little impact on the presidential race, because,
49:45
my gosh, when you're living in a world where a guy can get
49:49
bogusly convicted of thirty four felony counts in the middle of a presidential election and
49:53
it barely seems to have any impact on the polling, I'm not sure what
49:58
a debate could do to go and be more dramatic than even thirty four felony
50:04
convictions. Again, unless Joe Biden really does figuratively or literally crap as pants,
50:10
which I again do not expect to happen. So that is my analysis
50:15
of the forthcoming presidential debate. I will have obviously more thoughts on this in
50:21
the next episode of the podcast, which will occur the week after this debate,
50:25
as we get back onto our normal schedule once I return from vacation.
50:30
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