Latest / Upper Hand Fantasy / The League Winners I'm Targeting For All My Fantasy Teams
Transcript
- 0:00SPEAKER_00: It really only takes one or two guys.
- 0:01SPEAKER_00: If you've ever actually won your fantasy championship, I bet you can name the exact one or two players who did it for you.
- 0:06SPEAKER_00: That's just how this works.
- 0:08SPEAKER_00: Today I'm giving you my personal list.
- 0:09SPEAKER_00: 16 guys I'm building my own rosters around this year, and I think any of them can be that guy for you this year.
- 0:15SPEAKER_00: Last year, I was telling you to draft guys like Chris Olave, Drake London, and Chase Brown.
- 0:19SPEAKER_00: And Chase Brown's actually back on this list again this year.
- 0:21SPEAKER_00: And it's the same process behind both of those lists: talent, role, digging through training camp reports, projections, efficiency numbers, the offensive environment, personnel tendencies, pace, all of it.
- 0:32SPEAKER_00: That's how these names rise to the top.
- 0:34SPEAKER_00: Most of these I feel really good about.
- 0:35SPEAKER_00: Two of them, genuine risks, I'm still betting on anyway.
- 0:38SPEAKER_00: And I'm saving my very last pick for a guy I wasn't even in on early in the offseason, but I am now.
- 0:43SPEAKER_00: Let's get right into it.
- 0:44SPEAKER_00: And let's start with the first one, James Cook.
- 0:47SPEAKER_00: We already know he's elite.
- 0:48SPEAKER_00: He was first in yards per game and second in yards per carry last year, and that was good for the six most fantasy points per game at the position, as basically a pure runner.
- 0:56SPEAKER_00: Here's the part that gets me excited though.
- 0:58SPEAKER_00: He ran around on only 37% of Josh Allen's dropbacks last year, which ranked 25th among running backs.
- 1:03SPEAKER_00: And of the top six backs in points per game, Cook was the only one averaging under three catches per game.
- 1:09SPEAKER_00: So there's a whole extra gear here that nobody's pricing in, and here's why.
- 1:12SPEAKER_00: I actually spoke to Bill's beat reporter Sal Capaccio myself, and he told me it looks like that's exactly the direction this is heading.
- 1:19SPEAKER_00: More receiving work for Cook now that Pete Carmichael's the new OC, a guy who spent 20 years alongside Sean Payton.
- 1:25SPEAKER_00: You add real receiving work to a guy who was already this efficient as a runner.
- 1:29SPEAKER_00: I don't think I'd be shocked if he's the overall RB1 by December.
- 1:32SPEAKER_00: Next up is Chase Brown, and I think people still don't realize how good he was when Joe Burrow's healthy.
- 1:38SPEAKER_00: From weeks 13 to 18 last year, once Joe Burrow came back, and even with Samaja P.
- 1:42SPEAKER_00: Ryan still in the mix, Brown averaged the third most fantasy points per game of any running back in the league in standard leads, non-PPR, behind only Derek Henry and B.
- 1:50SPEAKER_00: John Robinson.
- 1:51SPEAKER_00: In PPR, he was the RB2, only behind Bijan.
- 1:54SPEAKER_00: He ranked fifth in target share on early downs last year, behind only Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, Devon Achen, and Jameer Gibbs.
- 2:01SPEAKER_00: And he's one of just four backs over the last two seasons with 50 plus catches in both years.
- 2:05SPEAKER_00: Gibbs, Bijan, and A Chen are the other three, so that's the kind of company he's keeping right now.
- 2:09SPEAKER_00: Camp reports said that he's been all over the field this preseason as a receiver.
- 2:13SPEAKER_00: He's on one of the best offenses in football.
- 2:15SPEAKER_00: He's going to win leagues once again.
- 2:17SPEAKER_00: Next up is Brock Bowers.
- 2:18SPEAKER_00: Don't forget, he has Clint Kubiak calling plays now.
- 2:21SPEAKER_00: The same coach who fed Jackson Smith in the Jigba 93 more targets than any other Seahawks receiver during his overall wide receiver two season last year.
- 2:28SPEAKER_00: And despite dealing with the PCL injury, Bowers was still putting up great metrics last year.
- 2:32SPEAKER_00: Second in targets per game, sixth in fantasy points per route run.
- 2:35SPEAKER_00: The next most productive receiver on that Raiders roster caught fewer passes than Ash and Genty.
- 2:40SPEAKER_00: And they haven't upgraded much in that department this season.
- 2:42SPEAKER_00: So there's a huge delta in talent between Brock Bowers and the next guy, just like JSN situation last year.
- 2:48SPEAKER_00: If Brock Bowers is healthy, he's got the exact coach who's proven he'll feed his best guy.
- 2:52SPEAKER_00: I think Brock Bowers can make a similar type of jump JSN made last year, and it's the kind of jump that hands you a serious positional advantage at tight end, more than even Trey McBride gave people last year.
- 3:01SPEAKER_00: Next up is Jalen Waddell.
- 3:02SPEAKER_00: He's one of those guys where you have serious talent, but the results say otherwise.
- 3:06SPEAKER_00: And I think that's just about the offense he was stuck in.
- 3:08SPEAKER_00: Last year he ranked top 10 in targets, yards, first downs, and fantasy points per route run on a Dolphins offense that was just bad.
- 3:15SPEAKER_00: Now he's in Denver where Bonex threw the ball more than any other quarterback in the league last year.
- 3:19SPEAKER_00: And it's not just about volume, it's pace and pass rate as well.
- 3:23SPEAKER_00: He's leaving the second slowest offense in the league for the 12th fastest, and a Dolphins team that ranked bottom six in pass rate for a Broncos offense that ranked 10th highest.
- 3:31SPEAKER_00: More plays and a higher share of those plays are throws.
- 3:34SPEAKER_00: We should expect more deep passing for Waddle this year.
- 3:36SPEAKER_00: He ranks six in yards per route run on goal balls, but the real unlock is the dig route.
- 3:41SPEAKER_00: He was number one in yards per route run on digs, and that's the exact role that was missing on this offense and the role that he's stepping into for Sean Payton.
- 3:48SPEAKER_00: He hasn't topped 100 targets since 2023.
- 3:50SPEAKER_00: I think that's going way up this year, and he's still coming off the board in the fourth round.
- 3:54SPEAKER_00: Next up is Ladd McConkie.
- 3:55SPEAKER_00: He has four things going for him this year.
- 3:57SPEAKER_00: And honestly, any one of them would be a reason to draft him.
- 3:59SPEAKER_00: Mike McDaniel is his new offensive coordinator, and he barely ran three wide receiver sets, which means McConkie's only got one other guy to share targets with instead of two.
- 4:08SPEAKER_00: Keenan Allen, one of them, is gone this year too.
- 4:11SPEAKER_00: He took a 23% target share last year.
- 4:13SPEAKER_00: And remember, McConkie himself averaged a 25% target share as a rookie.
- 4:17SPEAKER_00: He's getting that role back.
- 4:19SPEAKER_00: On top of that, the offensive line is actually healthy after allowing a franchise record 60 sacks.
- 4:23SPEAKER_00: So Justin Herbert should have time to throw.
- 4:25SPEAKER_00: One second, I got a notification here.
- 4:27SPEAKER_00: Oh fuck.
- 4:28SPEAKER_00: Looks like the starting center might be out for the year.
- 4:30SPEAKER_00: Okay, that one stings a little, but I'm not fading McConkey because of it.
- 4:33SPEAKER_00: He was already top seven among all receivers, not just rookies in yards and first downs per route run two years ago.
- 4:39SPEAKER_00: I keep coming back to how similar the setup is to JSN the year before his breakout.
- 4:43SPEAKER_00: And McConkie's a fourth round pick.
- 4:45SPEAKER_00: Next up is Luther Burden, and I'll admit the price had me spooked most of the offseason, but I don't think it should anymore.
- 4:50SPEAKER_00: Ben Johnson has been talking him up all offseason, and before the Gorn injury, he was the star of Bayer's camp.
- 4:56SPEAKER_00: His injury doesn't sound too serious, and by all accounts, he should be ready for week one, and it should probably give us a bit of relief on the price, too.
- 5:03SPEAKER_00: We all know about the efficiency from last season already, right?
- 5:05SPEAKER_00: We heard it all offseason.
- 5:06SPEAKER_00: Only Puka Nakua and Jason averaged more yards per route run than Burden did.
- 5:10SPEAKER_00: He's a full-time player now, and this isn't me just guessing at a role for him.
- 5:13SPEAKER_00: Ben Johnson has literally compared him to two of his former wide receivers who had very similar roles in Amara St.
- 5:18SPEAKER_00: Brown and Jarvis Landry.
- 5:19SPEAKER_00: And the reason that comparison matters is the role.
- 5:21SPEAKER_00: Johnson described Burden to Kay Adams in an interview as an inside outside receiver, someone who lines up in the slot and not wide.
- 5:29SPEAKER_00: And that's the exact role Amara St.
- 5:30SPEAKER_00: Brown has played in his offense.
- 5:32SPEAKER_00: So when your own high coach is telling you that that role maps to someone who led the league in targets before, that's a real sign Burden could be a high volume receiver in year two.
- 5:40SPEAKER_00: He's likely going to be going late fourth, early fifth round at this point because of the injury.
- 5:44SPEAKER_00: I think some people might be scared off, but I think we could be talking about him going in the second round next year.
- 5:49SPEAKER_00: Next up is Devontae Smith.
- 5:51SPEAKER_00: He's a guy I feel like nobody's talking about enough.
- 5:53SPEAKER_00: When AJ Brown's been off the field the last two seasons, Smith has averaged nine targets per game.
- 5:57SPEAKER_00: And it's not just one stretch.
- 5:58SPEAKER_00: For his whole career without Brown on the field, Smith's averaging 39% targets per route run and nearly three yards per route run, both of which would rank top three in the league.
- 6:07SPEAKER_00: That version of him averaged 16.2 PPR points per game, which would have made him the overall wide receiver nine last year.
- 6:12SPEAKER_00: And here's the thing every single receiver who averaged nine targets a game last year finished as a top 10 fantasy receiver, every single one of them.
- 6:18SPEAKER_00: Adrian Brown's now gone from that equation entirely, and Smith becomes the unquestioned number one target in an Eagles passing game that should be a lot more functional than last year's version was with Kevin Petula finally gone.
- 6:29SPEAKER_00: We're about to get a full season of the numbers he's already shown us in flashes.
- 6:32SPEAKER_00: He's going in the fourth round right now, right in that tier that we love.
- 6:35SPEAKER_00: But of all the guys that I'm going to mention who are going in the fourth round, he's probably the safest and the best value.
- 6:41SPEAKER_00: I genuinely think the league is about to find out how good Devontae Smith really is.
- 6:44SPEAKER_00: By the way, before we go to the next guy, if you want the full breakdown of where every one of these guys should actually be coming off the board, plus the rest of my draft kit to get you fully prepared for your drafts, go find me on Instagram at UpperhandFantasy, DM me the word draft26, and I'll send it right over.
- 6:59SPEAKER_00: Let's get back to the list.
- 7:00SPEAKER_00: All right, next up is DJ Moore.
- 7:02SPEAKER_00: He was coming off a down year in Chicago.
- 7:04SPEAKER_00: And to me, I'm like, well, if Ben Johnson can't get much out of him, he might be done, right?
- 7:07SPEAKER_00: And I get it.
- 7:08SPEAKER_00: I think that's why people are sleeping on him, and I was too, but there were real questions about whether he was done, whether he was washed, and now he's on the Bills.
- 7:14SPEAKER_00: He's also back with his old offensive coordinator from Carolina, Joe Brady, who's now the Bills head coach.
- 7:19SPEAKER_00: Apparently he's been lighting it up in camp and he's built a genuinely great rapport with Josh Allen already.
- 7:24SPEAKER_00: Every report out there said that there's serious chemistry between these two.
- 7:27SPEAKER_00: I actually talked to Sal Capacci about this too, since he's up there covering camp, and he told me that if you ask a lot of the beat reporters up there to name the MVP of Bills camp so far, including himself, it's DJ Moore.
- 7:37SPEAKER_00: And Josh Allen himself has said that he's gonna make a point of getting more fed early in games.
- 7:42SPEAKER_00: That's exactly the kind of quote you want to hear if you're drafting him.
- 7:44SPEAKER_00: He's going in a bit of a dead zone in drafts in the fifth round right now, and I think that's a mistake.
- 7:48SPEAKER_00: You know, you count the talent, like apparently he still has it in the Bills offense with Josh Allen.
- 7:53SPEAKER_00: That's a bounce back candidate I want on my team.
- 7:56SPEAKER_00: All right, the next guy we're talking about is Christian Watson.
- 7:58SPEAKER_00: He might be one of the most mispriced wide receivers in drafts.
- 8:01SPEAKER_00: The Packers just paid him like a top receiver, four years,$110 million.
- 8:05SPEAKER_00: He's going off the board as a wide receiver to 30.
- 8:07SPEAKER_00: He came back from a 20 ACL in week eight last year, and he still finished as a top 22 receiver in points per game the rest of the way.
- 8:13SPEAKER_00: And when he was actually healthy and running routes full time from weeks 10 to 14 last year, he was a top 13 receiver.
- 8:19SPEAKER_00: That was with Romeo Dobbs still in the roster, too.
- 8:21SPEAKER_00: Dobbs is gone now, so Watson has to only compete with Matthew Golden when they're in two wide receiver sets, who hasn't really shown he's capable of earning targets yet.
- 8:29SPEAKER_00: And Green Bay just told you with their wallet who their guy is.
- 8:31SPEAKER_00: He was fourth in yards per route run last year, eighth in fantasy points per snap.
- 8:35SPEAKER_00: You're probably drafting him at his floor here, and he legitimately has wide receiver one upside.
- 8:40SPEAKER_00: Now, another guy who has wide receiver one upside, and someone I'm drafting everywhere is Parker Washington.
- 8:45SPEAKER_00: He might be my favorite value in this entire draft.
- 8:47SPEAKER_00: Try and find a bad camp report on him.
- 8:49SPEAKER_00: I'll wait.
- 8:50SPEAKER_00: He's had the most consistently glowing coverage of anyone this offseason, and he's Liam Cohen's guy.
- 8:54SPEAKER_00: Trevor Lawrence is reportedly hyper-targeting him in camp and Washington's already told us the plan for him is to play in one, two, and three wide receiver sets.
- 9:03SPEAKER_00: That's a wide receiver one role.
- 9:04SPEAKER_00: Look at the numbers after last year's bye once he was actually healthy.
- 9:07SPEAKER_00: Top 10 in fantasy points per game.
- 9:08SPEAKER_00: He led the team in target share over that stretch.
- 9:10SPEAKER_00: He was sixth in the NFL in receiving yards per game.
- 9:13SPEAKER_00: He was also second in the entire league in yards per route run, only behind Puka Nakua during that span.
- 9:17SPEAKER_00: And he's still coming off the board in the sixth or seventh round.
- 9:19SPEAKER_00: He's being drafted like a fringe wide receiver three, but he has legitimate wide receiver one upside.
- 9:24SPEAKER_00: I'm definitely reaching for him in drafts.
- 9:25SPEAKER_00: All right, next up is Josh Downs.
- 9:27SPEAKER_00: Okay, okay, okay.
- 9:28SPEAKER_00: I know it sucks that Keenan Allen just signed with the Colts.
- 9:30SPEAKER_00: And yes, Allen operates in a similar area of the field to where to Downs have has typically lined up and run routes, right?
- 9:37SPEAKER_00: But I still think Downs is going to be the guy in two receiver sets.
- 9:41SPEAKER_00: He's been ramping up in that exact role all offseason since Michael Pittman left, and he's in his prime.
- 9:46SPEAKER_00: Keenan Allen is old.
- 9:47SPEAKER_00: And here's the thing if he's running in two receiver sets, that means he's not just the short chain intermediate guy anymore.
- 9:53SPEAKER_00: He's gonna be running routes further down the field, which actually changes his role from what we're used to seeing out of the slot in 11 personnel.
- 10:00SPEAKER_00: It's also possible Downs is still on the outside, even in three wide receiver sets, and Allen just handles the slot whenever they go to 11 personnel.
- 10:07SPEAKER_00: If that's how it shakes out, that might honestly be even better for Downs since he'd be pushed further down the field more often instead of bunched underneath.
- 10:14SPEAKER_00: And when he was coming out of college, I liked him so much as a prospect because of the fact that he was able to run those routes downfield.
- 10:22SPEAKER_00: Even his head coach has been telling us what's been coming, right?
- 10:24SPEAKER_00: Regardless of how things shake out here, Shane Sliken has already confirmed that Downs is gonna be on the field in two wide receiver sets.
- 10:30SPEAKER_00: He's never had a real full-time role in Indy.
- 10:32SPEAKER_00: Even last year, career low 63% of routes because he was running from the slot.
- 10:36SPEAKER_00: He still led the team in target rate per route run, though.
- 10:38SPEAKER_00: And with Alec Pierce banged up and Michael Pittman out the door, Downs could still profile as a top two target in this offense alongside Tyler Warren, regardless of Alan Jordan in the room.
- 10:47SPEAKER_00: He's still going the ninth round for a guy who was produced at a high level every single time he's actually been on the field.
- 10:52SPEAKER_00: Next up is a quarterback, Trevor Lawrence.
- 10:54SPEAKER_00: He's a name I think people are sleeping on because they remembered the version of him before the bye last year.
- 10:59SPEAKER_00: And remember, it was his first year in Liam Cohen's system.
- 11:01SPEAKER_00: And once he got comfortable in it, he really started to make it happen.
- 11:05SPEAKER_00: After his bye, he was the third highest scoring quarterback in fantasy points per game, behind only Brock Purdy and Josh Allen.
- 11:10SPEAKER_00: And part of that was his legs.
- 11:12SPEAKER_00: Sneaky, you might not have known that.
- 11:13SPEAKER_00: His design run rate basically doubled after the bye, up to 10%.
- 11:17SPEAKER_00: That trailed only legit rushing quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Jackson Dart over that stretch.
- 11:22SPEAKER_00: Liam Cohen has a track record of unlocking quarterbacks.
- 11:24SPEAKER_00: Baker Mayfield had a career year under him, and now Lawrence gets a full offseason in that system with weapons like Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers, Brian Thomas Jr.
- 11:33SPEAKER_00: So he's being drafted as a low-end QB one right now.
- 11:35SPEAKER_00: I would not be surprised at all if he ends up being a top five quarterback this year.
- 11:39SPEAKER_00: I have another quarterback for you, and that's Caleb Williams.
- 11:41SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes as the overall QB1 this year.
- 11:44SPEAKER_00: A lot of the credit has to go to Ben Johnson's play action scheme.
- 11:48SPEAKER_00: Williams ranks second in play action attempts last year and seventh in fantasy points per drop back off of it.
- 11:53SPEAKER_00: His sack rate got cut in half last year down to just 4.1%, and his passing touchdowns jumped from 15th in the league to sixth.
- 12:00SPEAKER_00: And he ended up as a QB eight in points per game last year, and that was despite Romo Dunze hurt most of the season, Colson Loveland and Luther Burden stuck in part-time roles, and his first year in Ben Johnson's system.
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: Everyone's healthy now.
- 12:11SPEAKER_00: Camp reports say he's been sharp, he's been building real rapport with his weapons.
- 12:14SPEAKER_00: I actually talked to a Bears beat reporter about this too, and he told me Williams' processing this year compared to this time last year is night and day.
- 12:21SPEAKER_00: He's going from read to read now, and he looks genuinely comfortable out there.
- 12:24SPEAKER_00: And that's the part that gets me.
- 12:25SPEAKER_00: If he was able to do what he did last year with everything we just talked about working against him, imagine what he looks like now that the processing's actually caught up and he has all of his weapons full time and healthy.
- 12:34SPEAKER_00: If it clicks the way I think it can, Caleb Williams has a real shot to be the overall QB1.
- 12:38SPEAKER_00: All right, now we're in the risky zone.
- 12:40SPEAKER_00: Okay, the number one risky guy that I'm still betting on is Baycial Tutin.
- 12:43SPEAKER_00: I want to be up front, like he's risky, like he comes with questions, but I think the payoff is gonna be worth it.
- 12:48SPEAKER_00: Bascial Tutin was one of the most efficient backs in college coming out right there with Ash and Gente and yards after contact the missed tackles force, and he carried some of that over as a rookie, ranking top 10 in missed tackles force and fantasy points per route run.
- 12:59SPEAKER_00: Liam Cohen has a type here.
- 13:00SPEAKER_00: He drafted Bucky Irving on day three a few years back for the same exact reasons, and he did it again with Tutin.
- 13:05SPEAKER_00: The reason being Cohen loves an Uber efficient back, and both these guys were exactly that in college.
- 13:10SPEAKER_00: Chris Rodriguez is mixing in with the ones in camp, and I won't pretend that's nothing, but the lead job is still Tutans to lose.
- 13:16SPEAKER_00: He's the more versatile back with the speed and pass catching and the burst that Rodriguez just doesn't have.
- 13:21SPEAKER_00: If Rodriguez ends up taking the role Tutan had last year and Tutin takes over most of the role that Travis Etienne had, that's a league winner at the end of the fifth round.
- 13:29SPEAKER_00: Another risky guy that I'm willing to draft is Dalton Kincaid.
- 13:32SPEAKER_00: And honestly, pure talent, like this shouldn't even be a discussion, right?
- 13:36SPEAKER_00: Last year on a per route basis, he was first among all tight ends in targets, yards, first downs, fantasy points, and expected fantasy points playing through a torn PCL.
- 13:44SPEAKER_00: The risk has never been the talent, it's been the role.
- 13:46SPEAKER_00: He's missed at least four games in each of the last two seasons.
- 13:49SPEAKER_00: And even healthy, he's never run a route of more than 65% of dropbacks in a season.
- 13:53SPEAKER_00: But we're hearing Joe Brady wants to get him more involved this year.
- 13:56SPEAKER_00: If Kincaid is healthy and actually playing full time on a Josh Allen led offense, you're looking at the potential overall tight end one here.
- 14:02SPEAKER_00: And here's the last pick.
- 14:03SPEAKER_00: I'm saving the deepest name for the last pick on this list, and that's Dejaon Stribling, 49ers receiver that a lot of people might not have heard about, but I think that's about to change.
- 14:11SPEAKER_00: He just had a coming up party in his first preseason game, eight targets and just 15 routes run.
- 14:16SPEAKER_00: If you're doing the math, that's over a 50% target rate.
- 14:18SPEAKER_00: And he turned that into 76 yards with some genuinely impressive grabs.
- 14:21SPEAKER_00: And this isn't just a one-game thing, he's been killing it all offseason, going back to OTAs and all the way through training camp.
- 14:27SPEAKER_00: Some reporters are even saying that he might be the best receiver on the 49ers roster right now, and Mike Evans exists.
- 14:32SPEAKER_00: That's the kind of thing that should make you pay attention.
- 14:34SPEAKER_00: Now, Ricky Pearsall's injury just vacated that wide receiver to roll in that offense, and Shribbling is right there to be the guy who benefits.
- 14:40SPEAKER_00: And I'd keep an eye on the rest of that receiver room too, because Mike Evans is 33 years old.
- 14:45SPEAKER_00: You never really know if he's gonna stay healthy all year.
- 14:47SPEAKER_00: He's already a little bit banged up during camp.
- 14:49SPEAKER_00: There's probably some games missed there.
- 14:51SPEAKER_00: George Kittle's also up there, 33 years old, and he's coming off an Achilles injury.
- 14:55SPEAKER_00: There are a lot of ways that this turns into a genuinely big rookie year role for stribbling, and there's an obvious path to a big outcome here.
- 15:03SPEAKER_00: He's basically free in drafts right now, and if he keeps earning targets at that rate, or somewhere close to it at least, he's the kind of pick that wins you your league for free.
- 15:11SPEAKER_00: All right, so that's my list.
- 15:12SPEAKER_00: 16 guys, some I'm drafting with confidence, some I'm betting on, even though they're a little risky.
- 15:16SPEAKER_00: If you want my full rankings and the reasoning behind every single pick, I have over 180 profiles written out.
- 15:21SPEAKER_00: Go find me on Instagram at upperhand fantasy.
- 15:24SPEAKER_00: DM me the word draft26 and I'll send you more.
- 15:26SPEAKER_00: Or you can find the link in the description.
- 15:28SPEAKER_00: Good luck in your drafts.
- 15:29SPEAKER_00: I'll see you in the next one.