Latest / The Follio Property Podcast / Should You Buy Now Or Wait? | Ultimate Property Investment Strategy in Australia, 2026

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Should You Buy Now Or Wait? | Ultimate Property Investment Strategy in Australia, 2026 · The Follio Property Podcast

• 0:00
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• 0:56
  It is better buying additions now than I've seen for the last sort of five years, Rhys, because I can get deals now under market value, under replacement cost. We're buying things now at 60% under replacement cost.
• 1:07
  Lachlan, today I want to talk about is now a good time to buy? Deep dive with you into some actual real life case studies. Absolutely. We've got four independent case studies and these case studies are great because we'll go through four very different situations with four very different answers, Rhys. Every client I'm speaking to now requires a different strategy. If you want to get ahead and make money in real estate, the right time to invest is now if...
• 1:29
  Let's talk through case study one. It's the Sydney unit owner sitting on some equities. I'm very confident if that person invests today, they're going to look in three years time and go, I'm glad I got into that market.
• 1:41
  You're listening to the Folio Property Podcast. I'm Rhys Beddell and I'm here each week with my co-host Lachlan Delahunty. Lachlan, today I want to talk about is now a good time to buy because there's a lot of noise in the market at the moment. There's a lot of negativity in some areas. There's a lot of micro markets that are moving. So I really want to unpack those areas there, talk about the current landscape from an interest rate perspective and then deep dive with you into some actual real-life case studies.
• 2:07
  Absolutely. We've got four independent case studies and that's really the question here. Is it the right time to buy? Very dependent on your situation. And these case studies are great because we'll go through four very different situations with four very different answers, right? So if you are listening and you want us to talk through your case study, please put in the comment what your situation is and we'll endeavor to answer it on the next podcast.
• 2:29
  Hey guys, quick thing to share. If you're serious about investing in Australian property right now, you need to see what we put together. It's called the National Investment Report and it's our brand new monthly deep dive into exactly where the market is moving, what the data is saying and what the smart investors are looking at right now. You can get the first access completely free. Just scan the QR code on the screen right now or click in the link below to fill out the form.
• 2:53
  Let's talk about the market in general right now because it is a two-speed market where you've got big capital cities like Sydney and Melbourne on a macro level showing some serious signs of decline. You've got the other markets that were going on a sharp increase now starting to slow down now. Is there opportunity in this market right now to invest?
• 3:14
  There is for the right client, and again, this is important. I said to you off air, Rhys, the analogy is you don't go to a doctor, your GP, and he just serves out the same medication for every problem. You come in with a cold, he gives you meds. You come in with back pain, he gives you the same meds. You come in with influenza, he gives you the same meds. The same is with property. If every client I'm speaking to now...
• 3:40
  requires a different strategy or a different form of mitigation in terms of what that property solution or non-property solution is for them. And post-budget, it's never been more complex. I've not seen my independent advice amongst the people I'm seeing differ from client to client so dramatic as it does post-budget. And that's because the landscape has changed. I spoke about on an episode a couple of weeks ago, how I was frustrated that there's
• 4:04
  leading voices in our industry, what they're trying to dismiss what has happened over the last six months is just noise. There was a budget. I don't care about a budget. There was a change to self-managed super fund. I don't really care about that. How can you not care about that, Rhys? That impacts every client very differently.
• 4:21
  And how you maximize the benefit that's still in play, whether that's re-engineering the interest in one of your investment properties to get the negative bearing on that to then positively gear the future purchase because you don't get any negative gearing on that, whether it's a time to now upgrade because you get exempt from property place of residence, or...
• 4:40
  I go, but should I downsize now? Okay, well it's probably not the right time because what you're downsizing that, you know, call it that two or three million dollar asset that you've got, that market's pretty soft at the moment. You're going to be selling and then entering into a very competitive market. Maybe that's not the time for that. Maybe let's hold that thought for another 12 months. So every client situation is very, very different. Have you seen posts everything that's gone on with the budget, the SMSF, the trust lending,
• 5:07
  Have you seen any new asset types or areas getting a significant push? Or not necessarily new, just some getting more noise around it than what they previously were, say if we were sitting in these chairs 12 months ago.
• 5:19
  Three assets that I'm seeing and getting asked about a lot, firstly, commercial. And commercial's gonna get pushed a lot because it's more complicated and your mum and dad investors are typically more prone to bad advice. It's extremely complicated for them. And so spruikers have now wrapped their head around some of the commercial terminology and using that to persuade clients that's a good place. And don't get me wrong, we were buying commercial for clients
• 5:48
  before the budget. We've bought commercial for the last six years and it fits for the right client in the right portfolio. I'm very pro-commercial and we are buying it currently for our clients and I see a huge opportunity in the commercial market. But that's not for everyone and I'm seeing a real push on that. I'm seeing a massive lean towards house and land package that's just been reframed or wrapped up.
• 6:10
  in a different form and they'll call it a strategy, it'll be an acceleration strategy, it will be a positively geared strategy. They won't say house and land package, that's a dirty term and a dirty word, but there's been a real push and justification for that, which we've got data and evidence to show that that's not the right space and off the plan. Again, this morning, Rhys, I did a presentation to a group, a very sophisticated group of financial planners and one was very much pushing
• 6:38
  surely off the plan now has a place in a portfolio. And my response was pretty direct because he was pushing the tax benefit. You don't invest real estate for tax benefits. You typically invest in real estate for two things, to gear it and get compounding growth over the long term. And that's how you get disproportionate returns on your cash. Off the plan apartments for the last 20 years have underperformed. So why would I want to put capital into an asset class for a tax benefit when I get no capital gain? It just doesn't
• 7:08
  So that's to give you sort of the three, I guess, asset types that I'm seeing a lot of noise around. And a big tick for commercial, love it in the portfolio. We do it and has the right place for the right client. House and land in the form that we speak about it on the outer fringes.
• 7:24
  Still doesn't sit well with me, never will. In-field development, absolutely. We're participating in that for the right clients within our group. And certainly for those in the marketplace that have a level of sophistication that can do it on your own, fantastic. Off-the-plan apartments, no.
• 7:42
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• 8:41
  Looking at the market as a whole, we've mentioned there, you know, we are seeing the market on a bit of a downturn with the major capitals, Melbourne and Sydney. Headline, headline.
• 8:52
  Headline media there, some strong data to come out as well with auction clearance rates, particularly in Sydney at some of the lowest levels since COVID. But we are seeing that there's markets within markets. If you want to refer to an episode we did a couple of weeks ago where we showed the heat maps for particular Sydney and Melbourne where you can clearly see the upper quartile is really struggling in those areas.
• 9:14
  Whereas in particular in Melbourne, some of the lower quartile is actually seeing some significant price movement over the last three months. Looking at that as a whole, there is some softening in the market. Is that creating opportunity for you then where we're starting to see softening? Or do you think there's going to be more pain in some of those macro markets as a whole?
• 9:32
  It is better buying conditions now than I've seen for the last sort of five years, Rhys, and that's when do I want to be buying real estate? It's when I can dictate my own price, terms, conditions, and I see value in the assets we're currently buying. We weren't getting that three to six months ago. We certainly weren't getting that 12 months ago, and we likely won't get that in six or 12 months' time.
• 9:54
  So the question you asked me at the very start of the podcast, is now a good time to buy? The answer depends on your situation. And that's a caveat across every individual listening right now. It's not, you know, you go to a barber shop, of course, he's going to tell you it's a good time to get a haircut. We are in the industry of buying properties. So our biases would suggest that it is a good time. Take that completely away.
• 10:17
  It's not for every particular client and it's so subjective on your circumstances. For me, as an investor, is it a good time for me? Yes, it is, absolutely, because I can get deals now under market value, under replacement cost. We're buying things now 60% under replacement cost. I'm very confident, Rees, I'm not going to be able to get that in six to 12 months' time and I certainly haven't been able to get that for the last two to three years. And if I take even a short to medium term on that.
• 10:46
  two to five year outlook, I'm very confident that I'm going to get a good return on my cash. And that's what we're here to do. We're trying to understand the data to see where we can outperform the overall market.
• 10:59
  I think that backs up what we see with our folio sentiment index where those that have two or more properties are getting more confident as the months go on. And I think that the circumstances is key here, right? That's why you're seeing the confidence with those that have got multiple properties. Look, myself, I've just had a sale fall through. I've got one kid, maybe another one in the next 12 months. Wife will be off work. Now I'm actually starting to have
• 11:24
  financial pressures in the back of my head. And for me, maybe investing right now isn't the best time for me because I've got other commitments. So I think it is really about understanding people's circumstances and where that fits because like you said there, that rate lever, which we had a podcast with Reetam Saeed the other week who's had some bold claims about how many rate decreases it's going to be over the next 12 months. Once that lever gets pulled, we start seeing rate decreases, you're going to see the market heat up across the board, not just in these micro markets that are moving.
• 11:54
  Yeah, a lot to unpack with what you just said there, but you're a perfect example, Rhys. And that's why do we create PropStack for our users, right? So they can know their numbers. So then they can see how exposed they are. So you're a perfect example. You're going to go from two incomes to one. And is that a good time to go and hedge a bet on a speculative asset type? Absolutely not.
• 12:13
  Is it a time to really overexpose yourself, have a low cash buffer, and increase your LVR through the roof? Probably not, so maybe it's not the right time for you to invest. But equally, that sentiment data that you discussed, there's so many people that it might be the right time to invest,
• 12:31
  But they've obviously, and very reasonably so, nervous about the market. But these same people, so that the smart money, like you said, the two property plus investors are saying this is a great time to invest. I sit in that category. And I'm in a position where I don't have...
• 12:46
  financial commitments that are on the horizon that are going to put me into potentially a distressed situation so I can take on more debt and I'm confident to do that. I see now as a great time to do it. For those that don't have a property in their portfolio or maybe have one and have been waiting for the market to cool, there's never been a right moment. Met a client the other week that's been looking for three years. They've completely missed the market for three years. When is the right time for that client? Any time in the last three years
• 13:16
  And they ask me, oh, I've missed the market. No, you haven't missed the market. You've missed a market. So you missed the Perth market three years ago. Yeah, you've probably, any time since then, if you had invested pretty well in anywhere in the country, with the exception of Sydney and pockets of Melbourne, you still would have been better off to invest then. And I'm very confident if that person invests today, they're gonna look back in three years time and goes, I'm glad I got into that market. But that's the demographic that won't invest against all the noise that we're seeing in the market.
• 13:44
  And that's our job is to try to educate those people that if your position or circumstances allow, the hardest thing to do is to get into the market. Once you do, as long as, again, do your due diligence, make sure it's the right product in the right market. That's a big caveat there. But you'll be thankful only if it's right with your situation and your circumstances.
• 14:03
  The crazy thing was I was looking back at interest rates because everything moves so quickly. There's positive sentiment, negative sentiment. It feels like it's been a whirlwind the last 12 months, but it's probably in the last six or seven where there's been some real levers being pulled from a property market perspective. But just look at the last 12 months of RBA announcements. We've had two rate decreases and three rate increases, and now there's talk.
• 14:27
  there could be another decrease. So within a 12-month period, this is crazy. The RBI are doing a phenomenal job at running our monetary policy in Australia, aren't they?
• 14:36
  It's literally ridiculous because I think – and you can actually – we don't want to go down – we don't run the government route again and talk about the first-time buyer and what they did with that because we've kind of done that to death. But it really does – for those trying to get into the market, there's some drastic changes. Surely we're in a variable loan environment, right? Like I would be shocked if anyone's doing fixed loans.
• 14:58
  No, we're the only country in the world that can come off to go through a rate hiking cycle, then decrease, and then to raise them again. So there's not many other countries in the world that's done that race. So we are unique in Australia. Equally, we've had a really disruptive moment with Australia.
• 15:14
  And we had a budget which was poorly timed. Now the dust has settled a little. And I look back over the last decade, you will always find a reason or a problem not to invest. And we've spoken about this on earlier episodes. Perth was a perfect example. In 2018, you couldn't make money in the Perth market. In 2020, COVID hit, the world was gonna fall apart. In 2022, the market was too hot, terrible time to invest. In 2023, rate rises were happening across