Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / This Won't End Well... + Stock Market News 18 March 2024

Transcript

This Won't End Well... + Stock Market News 18 March 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Okay, we are live.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Okay, I can see it.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: It's just the back end of YouTube is having a bit of a fit.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Good morning to you and welcome to this Monday morning live madness.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: We're joined by my CEO, this one here, and it's an interesting day.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: We've got Google flying to the moon.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: We've got quite a lot of stuff to chew through in terms of making you the best informed investor out there.
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: That's really what this is all about.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: I've prepared some research for you.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: I will also, of course, be taking all of your questions, so pop them into the live chat and smash the.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: You know what Do?
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: We look much better today with 100,000 subscribers.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Isn't that exciting?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: It's very exciting.
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: I was very excited by yesterday.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: I'm still very excited by it because, you know, it just does.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: I think our little community here is no longer that little, and there are lots of us out there who just want to escape the system, build true financial freedom and not have to work for some tweet Right.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: So there we have.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Good morning to you.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: So, first of all, in that note that effect, let me share my screen with you.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: Yeah, tomorrow I'm running the second ever evening life trading training and I'll show you just how we made $4,000 a dollar so far this year on a $30,000 portfolio and look how many down days we had.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: That's what it's all about Winning 74, 75% of our trades.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: That's what it's all about Making that automated, so that I spend two hours a week on this and you can do the same thing.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: You can learn exactly the same system not promising you outcomes Obviously, that would be illegal, sec and all that but you can learn the same system, the same structure, and it will make you a smarter, better informed investor.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: That's for sure.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: So come and join me live tomorrow at links down below phoenixorg slash webinar and grab yourself a seat.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Now I want to look a little bit more macro, but I also want to look at the specifics today and we'll end with a bang in terms of data and, of course, talk about Google and Apple and the key things happening today here.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: But let me just give you a little bit of like a bird's eye view here and right now everyone's going oh, the ends near and all that, but where we are positioned in terms of how many people are in tech, you know what's the positioning.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: Well, is it extreme?
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, it is pretty extreme.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: It's kind of like 2011 extreme.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: It's 2020 ish extreme.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: Can it go lower?
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, a little bit, but we are like in the we're in the top 10% of extremeness, so 90% of the time we're lower than this.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: And that tells you something that maybe foam owing into stuff isn't necessarily the most brilliant idea.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: And and then there is a Bitcoin conference coming up here in Hong Kong in a month and I was thinking of going and speaking and telling everybody you all nuts, I don't think I'd go down to too well, but there is some logic to this.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: I'm not not a bear here.
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying one needs to be prepared so you can make money from when it goes down and it will go down.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: It will definitely go down at some point.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Now it still says we've got 500 viewers waiting and that we're not live on YouTube.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: How's that possible?
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: Oh, we are live on this one.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: How interesting, okay.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: So it's created another video.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: How peculiar, how peculiar, okay.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: We need to figure out why that happened.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: But now I can see you, which is the good news.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: I can see you, but there is still another video, which.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Let me just take that offline so that the people over there are not are not freaking out.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: How do we do that?
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: How do we do that?
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Oh dear, oh dear.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Public unlisted safe.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Okay, a bit of last minute panic here this morning.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: What's going on here?
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Very peculiar.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: It's never really happened before, has it?
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: I haven't got a thumbnail on this either, which is weird, so let me get a thumbnail up.
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: So what I'm essentially saying while I'm fiddling here with the YouTube specialism backend is that earnings have actually gone up in line with the market and that means that we are not insanely overvalued.
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: It means that this party can continue for some time.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: But you also need to always bear in mind all parties come to an end at some point, right, and that's just the law of the land.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Basically, okay, we've got a thumbnail now, brilliant.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: But let's just see a little bit here.
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: So tech earnings have just been better than everything else.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: These are tech earnings, this is everything else.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: So there's a good reason to be in tech and tech is just basically massively out delivered.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: If you look at returns here Nvidia 117% up since the bull market really kicked off.
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: Meta 65, amazon 39, microsoft 29,.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Alphabet 17, 5% up this morning.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Apple 3% Okay, so the top six tech stocks they are basically doing everything.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: And the S&P without tech 20%.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: So tech's kind of outperformed there quite a lot.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: But the earnings growth of top six tech is almost the same as the stock price growth, whereas the earnings growth of everything else is only a quarter of their earnings.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: So actually the non-tech stuff is really expensive.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: It's kind of weird, isn't it?
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: The stuff that hasn't gone up that much is actually really, really, really expensive.
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: And if you look at Nvidia unseating Apple which is happening, looks like it's happening in terms of market cap, and Apple's profits are still way higher right, a hundred billion for the last 12 months.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Nvidia is something like 30 billion.
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: So Apple is still the profit beast out there.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: It's a much, much bigger company, but we don't see what the next trajectory is, which is why people are leaving Apple and heading for Nvidia.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: Let me move past this here.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: This is Tech Fund.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: How much money has flown into it last week?
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: That's it.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: So, people, this is what I'm trying to get across.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: If you're not in tech yet, you're late to the party.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: It's 4am in the morning, so be a little cautious, don't yolo into it.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: We're not anywhere near the dotcom bubble yet.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: That was insanity.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: The 10 largest stocks were valued at 50 times their profits.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: Right now we're at about 28 times.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: So, yes, I think we can go somewhat higher, but will it inevitably come down at some point?
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: Yes, it always happens, it always has and yeah, I know this time is different, but it's not.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: It just isn't.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: It just never really is.
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: I would actually argue that non-profitable tech is probably ripe for a rally once rates are confirmed to come down.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: So Papa Powell speaking on Wednesday will have a big impact on that, but probably we get more clarity on that maybe in May this year.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: I would have thought I'd be surprised if they cut before July.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: And what was the one thing that you could have invested in this year that would have been better than the NASDAQ?
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: Any takers, any takers, anybody, anybody, anybody.
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: Energy, seriously, the energy ETF has beaten QQQ, which is only up 6%.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: Energy is up 9%.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: So there's always something you know like there's a cyclicality to it.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Right?
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: Energy was did incredibly well, did it terribly, and now it's doing incredibly well again.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: So you always want to go like a little bit against the grain, and here we've got Tesla, and now suddenly everybody's hating on Tesla.
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: It's down massively, massively here, but Tesla has a habit of very significant drawdowns, like in from 2014 to 2017, literally.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: So from basically here all the way until 2017, for 939 days, the stock was down, it was falling, and then we did it again from 2017 to 2019 for another 820 days, and right now we are at 861 days.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: So Tesla does that.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: It is a stock that's very momentum-led.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: The CEO and founder does not care that much about shareholders.
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: He just cares about building whatever heck he wants to build, and you lot are in the way.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: So the moment momentum looks bad.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: But actually, somebody who wants to get in on Tesla, this is probably the best time we've had since you know a really, really long time ago.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: So try to become a little bit of a contrarian.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: That's what I'm trying to get across here.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: Like, don't be the follower, right, I'm trying to become a contrarian.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Okay, seeing your questions, I'm glad we're back on a live stream.
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: Thanks guys for finding this one.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: We had a bit of a techie issue there at the beginning.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: Now Google is up, not just 3%, google is up 5.4% pre-market.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: On the rumor and this is a rumor that Apple is talking to them to use Google Gemini, which is the chat GPT of Google, to power Siri.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Well, it could, of course, mean chitching for Google like actual money, but also recognition that their system isn't quite as idiotic as it seems.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: And it also means Apple is behind and they're not going to be catching up with developing their own AI anytime soon.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Now, apple is very smart.
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: I actually like them for that.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: They tend to partner with somebody.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: They borrow and pay for their technology.
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: It buys them time.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: They then copy it and do it better and then they launch their own thing.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: That's usually the Apple Playbook, so it kind of makes sense.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: They've become quite risk-averse, I think, over the years.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Apple, so they kind of see what happens.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: We've got all the money in the world as high as some people and we'll build it too, and that's probably the way they're going to go.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: But I don't know if this is going to take off.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Obviously Regulators might not love it, because it's kind of the two tech titans out there working together.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure it's going to fly, but at the moment Google stock's flying here, 5.35% up this morning at $148.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: And yeah, banking I talked a little bit about this yesterday.
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: If you tuned in to me on Sundays, you might need a rest day from too much Felix.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Then all the Winston usually joins me on Sunday, which probably makes it a little bit more palatable.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: Right now, how many office buildings and mortgages?
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: How many office mortgages do you think are not being paid?
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: How many sort of delinquencies do we have on that?
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Any ideas on numbers?
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: So we're getting a black series?
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: Yes, probably, who identifies as a?
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: I don't know something Right.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: I'll tell you Right now, 6.5% of office mortgages are not being paid.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: That would imply, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, that we would get about 110 bank failures.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: I'm serious here.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: This is the thing that's going to be in the news over the next couple of months.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Now, if that figure of 6.5% increases and why would it?
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: Because this year the most amount of these office mortgages has to be paid off.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: They all mature this year for some strange reason and therefore it could be higher.
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: If it goes to, say, 10%, you get 200 bank failures.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: Seriously, obviously small banks, not JPMorgan's they're going to be happy about this.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: It's kind of the getting rid of the small bank, it's getting rid of the regional bank.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: It feeds very, very nicely into your JPMorgan and your Bank of America, who are going to benefit tremendously from this because all those customers are going to go to somewhere else and the competition will be out of the way.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: It's going to be very good for those guys.
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: But yeah, this is quite serious.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: This is quite serious.
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: It's not going to be one or two banks, it's going to be present estimates of the National Bureau of Economic Research 100 banks plus.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: So bear that in mind Again, that could have a bit of an impact, right, you would think so.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Where's the market sitting today?
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Well, this is courtesy of optionswatchio, the platform that we built and love, and everything else.
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: So get yourself a free account over there and it shows you a couple of things.
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: It shows you in these little red bars here you zoom in some more.
• 14:37
  Speaker 1: You see that red bar here.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: That there shows you support.
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: So at 5100, 5100, we've got support.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: And where does the resistance lie?
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: We think of the French resistance when I say that that sits at properly up here at 5200.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: 5200.
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: That's your resistance.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Why do I say that?
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: Because here is this great big green lump there.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: That's your resistance.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: So we're trading fairly close to the support line and therefore things are getting a little bit choppier.
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: Now we also have a massive options exploration coming up at the end of the month, which is going to make things a lot choppier, but hopefully, hopefully, today's tech rally Google, meta, nvidia, apple, amazon, all in the green Tesla 3.8%, they heard me say, maybe think about buying Tesla will mean that we'll pull back over the 5150, which will give us more stability and will move us again back into the positive trajectory.
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: But right now we're a little bit on tentahawks here.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: So let's see where we are without.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: Where is 5225?
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, we're looking.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look at SPI.
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: Spi is at 513 pre-market, so up somewhat, 515 would be better.
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: Above, that would be better.
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, no.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Where is our little?
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: I'll zoom out.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: So if you want to get that kind of data, you can look that up on optionswatchio.
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: That's what I said.
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: And come and learn with me how we actually make money.
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: Just head over to philxfriendsorg slash webinar and I will literally teach you on Tuesday evening, tomorrow, how we do this $4,800 so far this year on a 30K portfolio roughly, and how Last year we did 105% on capital employed and 126% the year before.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: And if you think that's insane, if you think you're curious, then come and learn Seriously.
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: I'll teach you for free.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: Philxfriendsorg slash webinar.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: Link is down below.