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Fixing inflation needs new thinkning · The Financial Exchange Show

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  Speaker 1: Chuck Zada and Mike Armstrong.
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  Speaker 2: Kicking off hour two of the Financial Exchange is Chuck, Mike,
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: and Tucker with you. And we got a big rally
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: taking place across US equity markets, with the Dow up
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: nine hundred and ninety point arounies, the S and P
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: five hundreds up one hundred and forty eight, and the
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: nine Days No got it, just one hundred and forty eight,
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: and the Nasdaq is up six hundred and twelve points
• 1:36
  Speaker 2: right now, so about a two and a half to
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: three and a half percent gain across major US equity indices.
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: We've got the ten year Treasury selling off a bit,
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: up six point four basis points to four point four
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: to three to nine percent. Mortgage rates likely to follow,
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: and so Mortgage News Daily. On Friday, the close for
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: the national average of the thirty year fixed rate mortgage
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: was six' eight to, nine probably getting up to around
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: six nine to five somewhere in that range today on
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  Speaker 2: the thirty or fixed rate. Mortgage when we take a
• 2:07
  Speaker 2: look at, commodities oil up about two and a half
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  Speaker 2: percent dollars fifty a barrel On West Text intermediate to
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: sixty two fifty. Two we've got the tripa national average.
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: Four gas prices still in the range at WHICH i
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: will not actually comment on it because it just has
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: not been moving enough over the last couple. Months so you,
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: know it's somewhere between three ten and three, twenty But
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: i'm not going to tell you exactly, where because, well
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: the point of it was to not take the time
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: to do, It SO i THINK i should just stop doing, that.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Huh instead of talking about not doing, IT i kind
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: of like talking about not doing, it, though, YEAH i get,
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  Speaker 2: it you, know IT'S i just want people to know
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  Speaker 2: that oil isn't going. Anywhere it's not going up or
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  Speaker 2: down or rather gas prices or. Not it's just kind
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  Speaker 2: of hanging out. There and we've got gold selling off
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: one hundred and three dollars and sixty cents now it's
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: to thirty, two forty and forty.
• 2:56
  Speaker 3: Cents other news other than the news of negotiat of
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  Speaker 3: teriffs With china Include President trump's press conference this morning
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  Speaker 3: and executive action this morning on drug, prices which attempts,
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  Speaker 3: TO i guess clarify Most favored nation status with a
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: number of drug producers attempting to bring down the price
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: of those drugs sold in The United. States he mentioned
• 3:21
  Speaker 3: specifically some of the weight loss, drugs although how did
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: you describe?
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  Speaker 2: THEM i gotta say this is one of my favorite new.
• 3:29
  Speaker 4: Quotes.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: Now the weight loss drugs were described as quote the
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: fat shot drug like.
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  Speaker 3: It the healthcare sector as a whole was down in early,
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  Speaker 3: trading but is now up about two. Percent and in,
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  Speaker 3: fact even those companies that were specifically called, out Nov,
• 3:45
  Speaker 3: nordisk who MAKES i can never keep straight which ones they,
• 3:49
  Speaker 3: make but they're up about half a percent in early,
• 3:51
  Speaker 3: trading And Eli lilly up nearly three percent in early
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: trading so. Far so clearly investors not too concerned about
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  Speaker 3: what this might mean for.
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  Speaker 2: Them the analysis That i've seen there is that the
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: most likely action is that they raise prices everywhere. Else
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  Speaker 2: so basically so it's it's pretty much going, like let's
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  Speaker 2: say that you are healthcare you, know drug MANUFACTURER. X you, say,
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  Speaker 2: okay look we have you know what we think is
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  Speaker 2: you know the profits that we're going to have for this.
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  Speaker 2: Year do you simply, say, okay we're going to accept you,
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  Speaker 2: know a huge cut in our sales. Numbers, no we're
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  Speaker 2: not going to do. That, instead you go To COUNTRY
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  Speaker 2: a and, say, hey you are you, know by far
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: the cheapest country out, there we need to raise prices
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: by four hundred percent otherwise we're not going to be
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: able to sell here. Anymore and so, yes prices in
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  Speaker 2: THE us they, again this is all if this EVEN
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: i haven't seen any of the. TEXT i do know
• 4:48
  Speaker 2: that back in twenty, Twenty President trump tried to do
• 4:52
  Speaker 2: this same, thing and it got rejected by a couple
• 4:54
  Speaker 2: of different courts and so never ended up going into.
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: Effect but this is something we're assuming it would be
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: past muster with, courts WHICH i don't know BECAUSE A
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: i'm not a, lawyer AND B i haven't seen the.
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: TEXT i don't know WHY i need to see the
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: text Because i'm not a, lawyer so who. Cares but
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  Speaker 2: if it were to be able to go into, effect
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  Speaker 2: all you would see is companies, saying, fine we're gonna
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  Speaker 2: raise prices. Elsewhere we'll take a little bit of a
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  Speaker 2: hit on OUR us, price but prices go up. Elsewhere
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  Speaker 2: and by the, way if they do go up, elsewhere
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  Speaker 2: the availability just ends up going down there because people
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  Speaker 2: can't afford to pay those higher prices, Anyways so we
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  Speaker 2: have those two pieces of.
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  Speaker 3: News we are continue to get commentary from the administration
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  Speaker 3: on what all of this means With, china BECAUSE i
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  Speaker 3: think there are many that are just still left scratching
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  Speaker 3: our heads. Here But Scott besens has been quoted as
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  Speaker 3: saying that THE us is still seeking a strategic decoupling From.
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  Speaker 3: China you Have President trump saying we're looking at a
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  Speaker 3: complete reset With. China and, look what we do know
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  Speaker 3: is that for the next ninety, days the rate of
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  Speaker 3: tariffs On chinese made goods coming into THE us is
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  Speaker 3: likely to stick right around thirty percent or. LOWER i
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  Speaker 3: think that's all you can really, say relatively definitively right.
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  Speaker 3: Now and i'd, also i, guess be willing to say
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  Speaker 3: that you are unlikely to see any country that we
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  Speaker 3: do normal trade with facing a tariff rate above thirty
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  Speaker 3: percent over the next ninety.
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  Speaker 2: Days and so that's kind.
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  Speaker 3: Of the new, baseline which is pretty different than what
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  Speaker 3: we were looking At friday of last.
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  Speaker 2: Week, yeah let's talk a little bit about this piece From.
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  Speaker 2: Barons it's titled we were wrong about inflation for. Years
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  Speaker 2: fixing it requires new, thinking and it's from a guy
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  Speaker 2: by the name Of Mark blythe who is an economist and,
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  Speaker 2: has you, know studied this stuff for a, while and
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  Speaker 2: basically he makes the point and it's one That i've
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  Speaker 2: made quite a. Bit SO i Appreciate, mark you, know
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: listening to our. Show of course he probably doesn't quite,
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  Speaker 2: honestly he's smarter than. Us but it's the point That
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  Speaker 2: i've made quite a, bit which, Is, look the reason
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  Speaker 2: for globalization was not just because companies wanted to hire
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  Speaker 2: a bunch of people In china Or malaysia Or, mexico,
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  Speaker 2: Right they wanted to do it because it was.
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  Speaker 4: Cheaper.
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  Speaker 2: Correct the problems of globalization, was, hey we can make
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  Speaker 2: stuff more. Cheaply in, turn the standard of living will
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  Speaker 2: rise in those countries and allow The United states to
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  Speaker 2: sell more stuff into those as. Well, now the problem
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  Speaker 2: is that we kind of broke like the whole distributional
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  Speaker 2: aspect of, this and that you, know when you move
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  Speaker 2: that production, overseas we didn't do a good job of
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  Speaker 2: taking care of the people that were left behind here
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  Speaker 2: when those factories. Left, Yeah i'd say that's one of the.
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  Speaker 2: PROBLEMS i.
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  Speaker 3: Think another one was THAT i think there was a
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  Speaker 3: vision that this would all get distributed all across the,
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  Speaker 3: globe many different, countries would specialize in different, Areas and
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  Speaker 3: what actually happened is it pretty much all went To
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  Speaker 3: china because of their policies and, demographics policies and just
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  Speaker 3: how they structured. THINGS a lot of it ended up In.
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  Speaker 3: China but, yeah those were two of THE i think
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  Speaker 3: unforeseen side.
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  Speaker 2: Effects so What mark brings up is something again that
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  Speaker 2: we've talked about quite a, bit which, is, look if
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  Speaker 2: globalization was one of the reasons why cost could come
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  Speaker 2: down and probably a big contributor to the lack of
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  Speaker 2: meaningful inflation in the, nineties two, thys twenty, tens you
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  Speaker 2: know that thirty year period reversing it or you, know
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  Speaker 2: even not reversing, it but just moving from you, know
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  Speaker 2: one country to another in order to move stuff out
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  Speaker 2: of you, know a country that may be more hostile
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  Speaker 2: TO us interests is likely to put some upward pressure on.
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  Speaker 2: Inflation and how do we deal with?
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  Speaker 3: That, YEAH i don't know. How that's significantly different than
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  Speaker 3: how we were thinking about it. Previously you, know the nineteen,
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  Speaker 3: seventies when you think about that inflationary, period it was
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  Speaker 3: a supply shock and monetary problem that existed for a
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  Speaker 3: good decade and a. Half and again Maybe the different
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  Speaker 3: way of thinking about it is everybody's been waiting for
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  Speaker 3: the supply shock of an oil crisis or something along those,
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  Speaker 3: lines and that's clear not happening. Anymore but supply shocks
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  Speaker 3: take many different, forms and, yeah if it's a deglobalization supply,
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  Speaker 3: shock that might have the same. Effect SO i think,
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  Speaker 3: overall the place THAT i continue to get to, is,
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  Speaker 3: hey the inflation that we saw in twenty twenty one
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  Speaker 3: and twenty two is unlikely to repeat itself unless there's
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  Speaker 3: any kind, of you, know similar crisis that we, see
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  Speaker 3: which is just.
• 9:25
  Speaker 2: Unlikely, yeah it just. Is but we may need to
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  Speaker 2: be prepared for some structurally higher inflation for the next
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  Speaker 2: decade or. Two and WHAT i mean by that, is,
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  Speaker 2: hey even even during the period THAT i, mentioned you,
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  Speaker 2: know the, nineties twenty and twenty, tens if you go
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: and actually pull up the data on you, KNOW uscpi and, say,
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: okay let me look at this from the start Of
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  Speaker 2: january of nineteen. Ninety that's a starting point that would be,
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  Speaker 2: great and let's look at it through twelve thirty one
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  Speaker 2: of twenty. Nineteen if you go and, say, okay what's
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: the average inflation that we saw during that time it
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: was two point four to six, percent two point four cents.
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: Nothing so even during that that great period where we, said,
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: hey inflation wasn't a, problem still averaged almost two and a.
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: Half now it was skewed higher by periods surrounding The Gulf,
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: war where it touched north of six and also in
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: the run up to the housing crisis blowing. UP i
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: DON'T i don't know if people, remember do you guys
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: remember when oil went almost one hundred and fifty a
• 10:36
  Speaker 2: barrel in the summer of Eight, yeah it was you,
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: KNOW i was in college at the, time and everything
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: was like the beer companies were raising prices on cases
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: of beer left and. Right it was like every week
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: there was another like thirty cent up. Charge hybrids were
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: the new hot. Ticket everybody people getting rid of their
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: hummers and you, know getting into the hybrids and. Stuff
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: so it was skewed up by. Those but the counterpoint, is,
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: okay post tech bubble period inflation was down in the
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: one half. Range after the financial bubble burst and the
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: financial crisis, happened you had inflation running negative two. Percent
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  Speaker 2: no one was, like, hey great. Deflation it, was oh my,
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: goodness there's deflation because no one can afford to buy
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: anything because there's no money. Left SO i think that
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  Speaker 2: in looking at this WHERE i land, is, hey we
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: probably need to be prepared FOR i don't know if
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: if we, have you, know a twentieth anniversary show of
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: this show in twenty forty, five which we obviously should
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: like On may twelfth of forty, five we should anniversarize this.
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: SHOW i bet we're probably sitting there, Saying, yeah inflation
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  Speaker 2: in The United states for that twenty year, period it
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: was probably close to like three and a quarter to
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: three and a half, Percent, sure then two and a half.
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: Percent it seems it seems difficult to find a scenario
• 11:52
  Speaker 3: where it is lower than the two and a half
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: that we experienced during peak.
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  Speaker 2: Globalization, yeah and by the, way LIKE i leave open
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: the door for it could be higher than, that but
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: it just it would seem to me that the REASON
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: i say probably, NOT i think THE fed would still,
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: have you, know a tough time stomaching, inflation you, know
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: sitting there at, four four and a half five, percent
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: just because quite, honestly the answer is to, why like
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: inflation is, bad it's it's not that inflation is inherently
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: bad in any. Way it just makes us. Upset see,
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: stabilizing it just makes us, upset and that in turn
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: makes us upset typically at whoever's in, charge and so,
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: basically governing regimes of any particular country or state or
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: city don't like high inflation because it makes their constituents.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: Upset to take a quick break. Here when we come,
• 12:44
  Speaker 2: back we've got trivia right after.
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• 14:47
  Speaker 2: Com peace From. Bloomberg summer of travel not for Most.
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: AMERICANS us airlines and hotels are bearing the brunt Of
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: trump's trade policies and declining consumer, confidence not buying. It
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: talk me through.
• 15:00
  Speaker 3: It so they quote a few different places. Here one
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: would Be Future, partners who pulled four Thousand americans every
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: month on their travel. Habits they found that sentiment towards
• 15:12
  Speaker 3: vacation hasn't fallen, off but some consumers were starting to
• 15:15
  Speaker 3: adapt their plans more thrifty behaviors showing up at booking
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: holdings where they said Some american consumers at the lower
• 15:22
  Speaker 3: end of the market were taking shorter. Vacations on the other,
• 15:25
  Speaker 3: hand you go to higher star rated, hotels all inclusive,
• 15:28
  Speaker 3: places they are not seeing their bookings falling off at.
• 15:31
  Speaker 3: All so WHAT i suspect we will see this year
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: is some travel companies struggling because of foreign travelers not.
• 15:39
  Speaker 3: COMING i think there will be some people that rent
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: places on the coast Of, maine on The Capaan islands
• 15:45
  Speaker 3: who are seeing less demand than they saw last, year
• 15:47
  Speaker 3: AND i think that part is. Real will we notice
• 15:51
  Speaker 3: anything in terms of the spending Of american travelers that
• 15:57
  Speaker 3: are planning vacations for this. Summer i've just it's been
• 16:00
  Speaker 3: hodding too many times by consumers telling me that they
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: are pulling back and really taking a good hard look
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: at their spending.
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: And then not at all doing. So So i'm not. Buying,
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: YEAH i think you have to look at this from
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: the respective. Mark fandetti says this a. Lot look if
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: you want the best predictor of where the economy is
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: going to be next, month to look at what the
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: data showed from the previous. Month and there's there's an
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: awful lot of, momentum both good and, bad that gets
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: built up in, economies and so you, know it takes
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: a lot to overcome. THAT i think that when you
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: look at what THE us economy has been through in
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: the last sixty, days it's been a you, know a significant,
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: shock but it's still something where there's so much positive
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: momentum that until the data starts to actually show, you,
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: hey there's something different that's, HAPPENING i think you have
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: to kind of take every opinion survey with a grain of.
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: Salt and it's not saying this won't develop into something
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: that's bigger that you won't, see you, know pull back
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: and travel plans, eventually but this point it still is
• 17:02
  Speaker 2: mostly on the margins that we're talking about this and
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: while that can be enough to shift the trajectory of
• 17:08
  Speaker 2: THE us economy from you, know growing at two and
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: a half to one and a half. Percent is it
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: enough to you, know generate a, recession which is really
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: where travel stocks would would feel. It i'm not, Sure
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: and you, KNOW i do.
• 17:21
  Speaker 3: Believe, LOOK i am one hundred percent there that there
• 17:24
  Speaker 3: are a bunch of, consumers especially on the lower income
• 17:27
  Speaker 3: side of, things who with a combination of inflation over
• 17:31
  Speaker 3: the last few, years student loans starting back, up just
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: any number of things have contributed to car prices contributing
• 17:37
  Speaker 3: to the real struggle that that segment is going, through
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: and you're seeing it maybe showing up in fast food.
• 17:43
  Speaker 3: Demand those people weren't booking the all inclusive vacation At
• 17:49
  Speaker 3: hyatt in the first, place and it's not going to
• 17:51
  Speaker 3: be the thing that brings down overall travel.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Demand.
• 17:54
  Speaker 2: YEAH i think that's.
• 17:54
  Speaker 3: Fair, AGAIN i don't love saying, that but that's that's the.
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: Reality is that, segment to the bottom, quartile let's call,
• 18:01
  Speaker 3: it of income, demand of income consumers are not the
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: ones that are driving massive amounts of travel.
• 18:08
  Speaker 2: Spending, YEAH i think that's. Fair SO i think where
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: where we stand on all of this. Stuff there's another piece,
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: Here americans that embrace road trips is economic fears discourage.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: Flying we're gonna have to just take some time for
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: this to all play. Out i'm, Open i'm open to
• 18:26
  Speaker 2: a wide range of possibilities, here because, again we've never
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: really seen anything quite.
• 18:32
  Speaker 4: Like this ye.
• 18:33
  Speaker 3: BEFORE i do think airlines will, struggle BUT i just
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: don't think it's because Of american.
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: Consumers the question is going to be do these industries
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: struggle enough to the point where they start laying people
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: off in meaningful numbers that then affects the broader economy
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: in ways that are not currently priced into the stock.
• 18:56
  Speaker 2: Market because here's WHAT i will tell, you and this
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: is even before, today is big move. Up as of Last,
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: friday THE s AND p five hundred is trading twenty
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: point five times forward. Earnings after, today you're gonna be
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: around twenty one times forward. Earnings that's not a recession recessionary, no,
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: okay especially with you, know you look at the growth
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: rates that are still priced in in order to get,
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: there and year to, date not year to, date but
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: for calendar year twenty twenty, five an is still projecting
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: nine point three percent earnings growth of twenty, six thirteen
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: and a. Half if a recession, materializes all this goes
• 19:29
  Speaker 2: out the. Window but right now stocks are saying, no
• 19:31
  Speaker 2: it's not going to. Happen do you believe? Them that's
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: the bigger? Question quick, break we got the trivia answer.
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: Next bringing the latest financial news straight to your radio every,
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: Day it's The Financial exchange on The Financial Exchange Radio.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Network The Financial exchange streams live on. YouTube like our
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: page and stay up to date on breaking business news all.
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: Morning Long face is The Financial Exchange Radio.
• 20:01
  Speaker 5: Network, well in honor Of Homer simpson's sixty ninth birthday being,
• 20:10
  Speaker 5: today we asked the trivia, question what Is Homer simpson's? Catchphrase,
• 20:16
  Speaker 5: well that would of course be Dough yes. Do winner
• 20:21
  Speaker 5: today of The Financial Exchange SHOW t shirt Was joe
• 20:24
  Speaker 5: From north And over mass taking home at brand New
• 20:27
  Speaker 5: Financial Exchange show t. Shirt congrats To joe and we
• 20:31
  Speaker 5: played trivia every day here on The Financial. Exchange see
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: complete contest rules At financial Eks Change show dot.
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: Com the spring housing sales season is shaping up to
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: be a. Dud that is the piece from The Wall Street,
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: journal and it matches what we are seeing in data
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: that's coming, out which is pretty. Much, hey for most
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: of this, year you've been running about three percent under
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: twenty TWENTY d four levels of, activity yet a brief
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: period In april where things picked up a, little and
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: then they've you, know kind of gotten back to not being.
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: Great and the problem is that the spring housing season
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: basically is peaking right, now and then you have a
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: slow decline in activity levels Until, halloween where it probably
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: falls off the cliff and slows down dramatically for the
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: last two months of the year because no one wants
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: to be trying to buy a place while you're Playing
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: thanksgiving dinner and you, Know Christmas eve and stuff like.
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: That, man Where i'm in the market to move To
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: florida right, now i'd be one happy.
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: Camper so here's the. Thing this is all very much
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: regionalized in That, well here's the. Thing you might, say
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: you'd be a happy camper trying to move To, florida
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: except that your insurance costs her through the roof, now
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: your property taxes are moving, up your condo fees are,
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: nuts and you might have you, know special one off
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: condo assessments and stuff like.
• 21:53
  Speaker 3: That, AGREED i would just be lower balling the hell
• 21:55
  Speaker 3: out of The florida market right. Now where trying to move? There,
• 21:58
  Speaker 3: YES i would just be going from place To, okay
• 22:00
  Speaker 3: set me a you, know five square mile place THAT
• 22:03
  Speaker 3: i want to, live And i'm just going to submit
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: offer after offer that are thirty percent below the list
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: price and see what.
• 22:09
  Speaker 4: Happens you.
• 22:09
  Speaker 2: Seek you got your placelift listed for four, hundred here's two.
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: Eighty take it or leave. It and it reminds me
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: of WHEN i first.
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: Bought my first ever home THAT i lived in was
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: a two bed condo In summerville THAT i purchased in twenty.
• 22:27
  Speaker 2: Eleven, yeah half of.
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: The properties were bank owned and it was just you,
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: know take your pick of kind of run down, places
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: but places that we're just having to cut prices, left
• 22:39
  Speaker 3: right and.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: Center and that is.
• 22:40
  Speaker 3: Very obviously not what we're getting anywhere here in The.
• 22:42
  Speaker 3: Northeast but you go To, florida it's not bank owned.
• 22:44
  Speaker 3: Stuff it's all privately owned. Stuff it's just people that
• 22:46
  Speaker 3: are pretty desperate to sell.
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: This this is the. Thing there's no stress in the
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: housing market from a lending, Perspective like you're not.
• 22:53
  Speaker 3: Explaining what that means like, lending like like you're not
• 22:57
  Speaker 3: seeing any kind of, major you, know uptick in Del.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: Linquinc's you're not seeing any kind of foreclosure wave or
• 23:03
  Speaker 2: anything like that going. On so it's it's not that
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: it's not people can't make the payments on their. Homes it's, Just,
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: hey if you want to sell a home in an
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: area that was hot in the last few, years Namely
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: florida And, texas but starting to expand throughout The, southeast
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: you're not finding it particularly easy to do so in
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: a lot of. Cases. Now, nationally inventory levels at this
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: point have gotten to the point we're up thirty three
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: percent year over year and only about sixteen percent below
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: twenty nineteen levels of. Inventory, okay so, yeah and we're
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: closing the gap by about half a percent a. Week
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: we're probably going to be back to pre pandemic levels
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: of inventory by the end of this year, nationally but
• 23:45
  Speaker 2: it's going to be horribly. Skewed ye in The, northeast
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: where our show's based out, of you're still in, general
• 23:51
  Speaker 2: aside From connecticut running about forty five to seventy percent
• 23:55
  Speaker 2: of pre pandemic inventory in there are other states that are.
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: Similar by the, Way, YEAH i was taking a look
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: at similar, story and parts of The midwest are in
• 24:03
  Speaker 3: a similar position that we are. Here but you, Know,
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: california across the, west you're seeing inventory levels that are
• 24:11
  Speaker 3: about the national, average which are still below twenty nineteen.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: Levels if you go down and we'll get most Of
• 24:16
  Speaker 2: florida right, now inventory levels are anywhere from five to
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: fifteen percent above twenty nineteen. Levels prices likewise have fallen
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: In florida in most areas year over, year not a,
• 24:28
  Speaker 2: ton but you know you're talking load to mid single.
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: Digits if you go To, Austin, texas prices are about
• 24:34
  Speaker 2: fifteen percent off their peak, already and inventory is running
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: twenty five percent above twenty nineteen. Levels and this is.
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: Spreading it's, again it's not going to be the proximate
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: cause of any. Downturn but WHAT i will tell you
• 24:52
  Speaker 2: the housing market is getting to the point where in
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: the next several, years in large parts of the, COUNTRY
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: i fear that it may be irreparably. BROKEN i don't
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: know what that. MEANS i mean that the prices in
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: a lot of the country are not going to be
• 25:08
  Speaker 2: supported by the fundamentals of what people can afford based
• 25:12
  Speaker 2: on where insurance rates are, going where tax rates are,
• 25:16
  Speaker 2: going and what is needed in order to actually support
• 25:19
  Speaker 2: the services provided to those. AREAS i can't make the math, work, Mic,
• 25:26
  Speaker 2: yeah we brought up that place WHERE i can't make.
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: Work it's not just. HOUSING i can't make it work for. Cars,
• 25:32
  Speaker 2: YEAH i cannot make the math work for cars because
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: of where insurance rates are. GOING i don't know. HOW
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: i don't know how to make the numbers. Work and,
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: again this is not a economy falls off the cliff.
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: Thing it's much. More, hey when you go to sell
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: that place that you've owned for ten years and you
• 25:52
  Speaker 2: have enough equity, in you're not gonna get what you
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: thought you were gonna get for. It AND i think
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: that problem is gonna get. Worse and it's it's not
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: related to the economy in like economic activity. Terms it's
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: related to the fact that there just is not enough
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: income to cover the insurance and maintenance costs of what is.
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: Needed.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: NOW i need to think that.
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: Through a little bit.
• 26:15
  Speaker 3: More that's kind Of i'm with, you that insurance costs
• 26:18
  Speaker 3: are going to continue to go through the. ROOF i
• 26:19
  Speaker 3: don't think there's any path other than upwards or subsidized
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: for insurance costs and subsidies would be a stupid, idea,
• 26:26
  Speaker 3: Right it doesn't fix the. Problem, yeah But i'm not
• 26:29
  Speaker 3: ruling it out only because that's what we do for flood,
• 26:31
  Speaker 3: insurance for, example we just, said, well you, know we'll socialize.
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: It So i'm with you that insurance costs need to
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: go further up would be my. Guess BUT i also
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: would think that markets kind of solve that problem with
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: prices coming down on properties.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: Further that's What i'm saying, that, like that's the mechanism, unfortunately,
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: right is prices coming down. Further, yeah it's it's not
• 26:56
  Speaker 2: that like homes won't be for, sale they just won't
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: be for sale at the prices that you want them
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: to be for sale for if you're a. Seller that's
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: WHERE i think we're.
• 27:04
  Speaker 5: Going The United States Virgin islands is consistently voted one
• 27:08
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• 28:00
  Speaker 2: Com rest of your isn't looking good for retail property.
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: MARKET i have no insight into this and whether or
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: not it's anything useful or not to talk.
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: About, yeah and it was written at five thirty am this,
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: morning WHICH i know this is silly to bring. Up
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: but a lot's changed since. THEN a lot's changed in
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: the last what's that six? Hours, YEAH i would have
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: totally bought On friday afternoon the idea that a bunch
• 28:28
  Speaker 3: of five below and dollar stores were going to go
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: out of business and close up shop or dramatically reduce their.
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: Footprint i'm no longer so sure about.
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: That, YEAH i don't think anyone knows anything right.
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: NOW i just, YEAH i, mean the outlook for. RETAIL
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: i think we might have gotten past the worst of this. Stuff,
• 28:53
  Speaker 3: like it's been a pretty ugly time period for shopping
• 28:57
  Speaker 3: mall retail for a. Decade we've been closing, spaces been
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: converting them to other. Things AND i don't know if
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: we are not facing tariffs of one hundred and forty
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: five percent on Every chinese made, GOOD i think that
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: a number of these places might be just.
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: Fine maybe. NOT i have no. IDEA i know that's
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: not what anyone wants to, hear but, LIKE i have
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: no clue that the history of economic data in THE us, says,
• 29:24
  Speaker 2: yeah this stuff should be. Fine BUT i have no.
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: Idea, YEAH i, mean it's it's still very much true
• 29:29
  Speaker 3: that the square footage per capita in The United states
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: of retail space is LIKE i think double the closest,
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: country which Is. Canada so the way that we shop, here.
• 29:41
  Speaker 2: People love playing.
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: Stuff, yeah and even with online, shopping this has not
• 29:46
  Speaker 3: really shrunk much and so, again you could make a
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: compelling case that compared to the rest of the, world
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: but THE us has always just had more space.
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: In larger homes and larger apparent retail shop. Centers let's
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: take a quick break. Here when we come, back it's
• 30:02
  Speaker 2: time for a little bit of Stack.
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: Roulette Tara spears continue to grip. Markets get the latest
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: straight From Wall street right here on The Financial Exchange Radio.
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Network The Financial Exchange show podcast drops every day On, Apple,
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: spotify And. iHeartRadio hit that subscribe, button then leave us
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: a five star. Review you're listening to The Financial Exchange Radio.
• 30:25
  Speaker 4: Network all, Right, mike what do you got for? Me
• 30:43
  Speaker 4: for Stack?
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: Rolet Elizabeth holmes partner.
• 30:48
  Speaker 3: Has a business partner both Oh Billy, evans who has
• 30:52
  Speaker 3: two children with The fairhose Founder Elizabeth, holmes who by the,
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: way is in prison for.
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: Fraud she lied about. It a lot of.
• 31:01
  Speaker 3: Fraud, yeah, like there's a ton of fraud. Here she
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: defrauded a lot of.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: People she frauded. Hard there's been A netflix series about.
• 31:08
  Speaker 2: Him there was a, series there was A netflix, documentary
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: there was a. Book the guy who did the book
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: who basically broke the story we had on the, show
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: like right as it was, HAPPENING i forget who it.
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: Was it was a reporter from The Wall Street, JOURNAL
• 31:21
  Speaker 2: i think.
• 31:22
  Speaker 4: So in.
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: The most brazen attempt at fundraising since is It billy,
• 31:30
  Speaker 3: McFarlane the Fire fire festival. Guy, Yes Billy, evans who
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: has two children With Miss, holmes is trying to raise
• 31:37
  Speaker 3: money for a new company that describes itself as the
• 31:39
  Speaker 3: future of diagnosed diagnostics and a radically new approach to health.
• 31:44
  Speaker 3: Testing and if anyone gives this guy any, money then
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: you deserve to lose every.
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: Penny the good news is that the company is Named
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: himanthis H E M A N t H U, s
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: which is just rolls right off the. Tongue so, like
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: clearly you, know start off well. There but, YEAH i
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: just don't understand.
• 32:03
  Speaker 3: Anyone that's associated With Elizabeth holmes can never work in
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: fundraising or blood testing or really any sort of healthcare diagnostics.
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: Ever, AGAIN i just don't understand how one can think
• 32:18
  Speaker 2: this is a good.
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: Idea, so Mister, evans by the, way is the thirty
• 32:21
  Speaker 3: three year old heir to A california hotel. Fortune oh,
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: sure he Met Miss holmes while federal authorities were investigating
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: her ibe AND i JUST i have no, idea. Guys,
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: Like according to the company's marketing materials and, patent The
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: hamanthus device will use a laser to scan, blood, saliva
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: or urine from pets and analyze the samples on a
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: molecular level in a matter of. Seconds the marketing materials
• 32:54
  Speaker 3: said Mister evans machine would be able to identify and
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: qualify biomarkers such as glucose and, hormones and deploy what
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: the company calls deep learning models to detect cancer and.
• 33:06
  Speaker 3: INFECTIONS i really doubt. It lasers a. Boy, so, look
• 33:18
  Speaker 3: don't know anything about the. Device ALL i know is
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: if you are in a relationship with someone who has
• 33:26
  Speaker 3: been convicted of perpetuating fraud in the medical device testing, space.
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: You're going to have a really high hurdle to jump
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: over in order to get anyone interested in your medical
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: device that does blood testing and saliva. TESTING i just.
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: Can you imagine the conversations that had to happen for
• 33:52
  Speaker 3: this man to get to the point where he is
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: actually appearing in This like nobody was, like, hey maybe
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: you should just sell the patent to somebody else else
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: and let. Somebody the fact that he is the one
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: that's doing all this means that the patent is, useless
• 34:04
  Speaker 3: that it's probably a. Fraud the long term goal is
• 34:07
  Speaker 3: if it was, legitimate somebody would have bought, it is
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: to develop a stamp, size wearable vision version of the
• 34:12
  Speaker 3: product for humans that constantly tests my blood quote based
• 34:17
  Speaker 3: on our experience and partner.
• 34:18
  Speaker 2: Input it will require three years and seventy million. Dollars
• 34:22
  Speaker 2: so that's. It that's, it and we can totally change
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: out all the stuff That amazon's been working on And
• 34:28
  Speaker 2: apple's been working on for you, know wearable glucose monitor in. This,
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: no this is gonna. Do all you gotta do is
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: give this guy seventy million dollars and waits three years
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: and they're gonna be able to do. IT i have my,
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: doubts but you, know the last sentence of this is
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: honestly the best. One the investor presentation makes no mention
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: of Mister evans connection to Miss. Holmes, well no, Kidding,
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: gosh like.
• 34:58
  Speaker 4: Wonder.
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: WHY i guess it'd be wilder if DID i want
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: to talk a little bit About Kendrick, lamar Because tucker
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: just let me know That Kendrick lamar is Playing Gillette
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: stadium today tonight, tonight tonight, tonight and So Jellette stadium is.
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: Big it holds about sixty five thousand people on a good.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: Day When Taylor swift played there two years, ago it
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: held that many people for was it two nights or three?
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: Nights it was? THREE i think it was three nights
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: and the cheapest that you could get in the door
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: was like a thousand. Bucks So Kendrick lamar is No Taylor. Swift,
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: obviously there's no one in the entertainment world that is these. Days.
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: No but here's what is interesting is to get onto
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: the field At Gillette stadium right now for tonight. Show
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: granted it's A monday In, may the day After Mother's,
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: day so your miles may vary on. This two hundred
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: and thirty three Dollars i'm, sorry two hundred and twenty
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: three dollars to get on the Field Agiluette. State and
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: For Kennick, glamar WHO i will say is just the
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: biggest name in hip hop. Today, yeah you just did
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: The Super. BOWL hasti played The Super?
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: Bowl?
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: Yeah why are we talking about this On monday night In?
• 36:12
  Speaker 2: May So Taylor. Swift it didn't matter what night it
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: was In. May, okay it could have Been Mother's day
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: and she was selling that place.
• 36:21
  Speaker 4: Out.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah Why i'm talking about this is trying to figure
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: out what it. Means is this a just, hey it's
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: A monday In. May thing that's going? On is it
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: a just you, know the relative audience sizes between the
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: two are just so different that this is what you
• 36:40
  Speaker 2: get situation or is there something that's happening in the
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: broader concert space that could be going? On and to,
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: that ladies and, GENTLEMEN i bring you to someone by
• 36:52
  Speaker 2: the name Of, beyonce WHO i assume everybody, knows because
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: if you can go buy one, name everybody knows. You
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: beyonce is playing the Playing MetLife stadium three nights coming
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: up later In May. Beyonce and again this is not
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: even day Of, remember ticket prices go down as you get.
• 37:13
  Speaker 2: CLOSER i can get onto the field For beyonce In
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: May may twenty, second which is A. THURSDAY i can
• 37:22
  Speaker 2: get on the field At MetLife for under six hundred
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: dollars right, now and probably by the time tickets are
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: like we go two more weeks, out probably able to
• 37:32
  Speaker 2: get on the field for somewhere in the three hundred
• 37:33
  Speaker 2: to four hundred dollars, range Which i'm not saying is
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: like a good investment or. Whatever i'm just saying there's
• 37:39
  Speaker 2: something changing in the concert. Space Because Kendrick luamar on
• 37:42
  Speaker 2: A monday After Mother's, DAY i can look at and say.
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: Whatever beyonce on A thursday And friday heading Into Memorial day,
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: weekend heading Into Memorial day weekend In New york freaking.
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: City that's.
• 37:55
  Speaker 2: Surprising that's kind of interesting to. Me so maybe something's
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: happening in the conace AND i don't know what to
• 38:01
  Speaker 2: make of, it BUT i got a little bit of noise.
• 38:05
  Speaker 2: There so we'll. See let's take a quick break for
• 38:09
  Speaker 2: the next twenty four, hours and when we come back,
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: tomorrow we'll be talking about more stock and economics. Stuff
• 38:18
  Speaker 2: let me talking About waymo. Tomorrow, surprise it sounds fun.
• 38:23
  Speaker 2: Too we'll see you tomorrow on The Financial exchange