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Episode 345 - 9/3/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 345 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:36
  Happy hump day. We are officially halfway
• 0:39
  through the first week in September.
• 0:41
  I tell you what, guys, it's football season.
• 0:43
  We started yesterday's pod talking some early sharp moves
• 0:47
  for college football Week 2 now at this point.
• 0:50
  And we also got to talk some NFL because tomorrow the NFL season
• 0:54
  starts. I tell you what, guys, everybody
• 0:56
  and their mothers on Philly lines going to Philly open as
• 0:59
  low as -7 they're all the way up to 8 1/2 at this point.
• 1:02
  My next question is, does it get up to 9?
• 1:04
  Does it come back down to 8? Do we hold our nose and take the
• 1:07
  Cowboys getting the points in a big contrarian spot?
• 1:10
  Divisional dog. Stay tuned for that.
• 1:12
  We'll have an official play here for tomorrow, but in the
• 1:15
  meantime we got to talk some early line movement again.
• 1:18
  We're getting into the kind of routine of betting football,
• 1:21
  trying to pick off good numbers early in the week.
• 1:23
  I wrote a sharp report today for visen.com. 3 early sharp plays
• 1:27
  in the NFL, and I bet them all, so they're officially in pocket
• 1:30
  for me. So we're going to talk 3 early
• 1:32
  NFL games that are catching my eye, that really fit our model
• 1:35
  against the public. Sharp line, movement system,
• 1:38
  matches, rhythm, edges, all that.
• 1:40
  So we will talk NFL early, sharp betting.
• 1:43
  I also have my fantasy football draft tonight.
• 1:45
  I tell you what, it's always nice to reconnect with your old
• 1:47
  friends. All my buddies I grew up with,
• 1:50
  we're all in different parts of the world now.
• 1:51
  A lot of us still in New England, but we will have our
• 1:54
  live zoom and our live fantasy football draft tonight.
• 1:57
  So I'm very much looking forward to that.
• 1:59
  But in the meantime, aside from the NFL, we also got to talk
• 2:02
  Major League Baseball. I got 3 plays in MLB today,
• 2:05
  including an early game that I want to hit on 1st.
• 2:08
  And also shout out to last night.
• 2:10
  Nice little 2 day win streak. Remember we had one play on
• 2:13
  Monday. TCU came through last night,
• 2:15
  busted out the brooms, got back to MLB 3 and O + 2.16 units.
• 2:20
  The Blue Jays won a ridiculous back and forth game.
• 2:24
  They're up big and kept blowing it.
• 2:25
  I'm like man, are they ever going to hold on?
• 2:27
  Luckily they did. They won 12 to 9 against the
• 2:29
  Reds. Cubbies hung on four to three.
• 2:31
  That was nice to see. And then also the Yankees over 7
• 2:34
  1/2. The game landed on 8.
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  Seven to one Yankees win. Shout out to Trent Grisham
• 2:39
  hitting a Grand Slam, Jazz Chisholm hitting two homers.
• 2:42
  But that's so important. Remember, the game was 7 after 8
• 2:45
  and we kept saying, hey, you play this over, you got to get
• 2:47
  the 7 1/2 because if it lands on 8, we got to catch that play.
• 2:51
  So it's nice to see that over hit with the Yankees game.
• 2:53
  So nice little nice little bust out the brooms sweeping it up
• 2:57
  with a three and O night in MLB. Before we get into MLB, I just
• 3:00
  want to mention I do have a contest with Splash Sports NFL
• 3:04
  Survivor. I'd love for you guys to join.
• 3:06
  So I tweeted it out earlier today.
• 3:08
  If you have any interest in joining, it's 25 bucks for a
• 3:12
  entry fee. You can do at least or at the
• 3:14
  most 5 entries. I should say you can win up to
• 3:16
  $11,000 and I would love the winner to come from someone who
• 3:19
  listens to the ASG pod. So please sign up again, it's
• 3:23
  not the the circa million Millie maker or you know, $14 million
• 3:28
  winner, their survivor, but that cost 1000 bucks to enter.
• 3:30
  This is just 25 bucks. So I would love for you guys to
• 3:33
  join rooting interest throughout the year.
• 3:35
  Again, you can check my Twitter at Josh under score insights.
• 3:38
  You can send me a direct message on Twitter if you need the link
• 3:41
  and also put it in the bio description of this podcast.
• 3:43
  So we're talking baseball. We're talking NFL for today.
• 3:47
  Now let's waste no more time guys, because there's a lot of
• 3:49
  MLB day sweats going on. So we'll talk NFL second-half of
• 3:52
  the pod. I don't start off with our three
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  pack. An early game that caught my
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  eye. This is a 4:10 PM Eastern Time,
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  first pitch interleague match up, the Orioles visiting the San
• 4:02
  Diego Padres. Now, Believe it or not, the
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  Orioles have won the first two games of this series.
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  So could they go for a sweep today?
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  We shall see. I'm hoping not though, because I
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  like the dads in the spot now coming in.
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  Orioles 63 and 76, Padres 76 and 63.
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  So Padres obviously better team overall.
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  Remember, the Orioles got off to a terrible start and they've
• 4:23
  kind of turned it on a little bit in the second-half pitching
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  matchup. We got a couple lefties on the
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  bump. The lefty Cade Povich is going
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  for the Birds. He's 2 and 7, five point O 4
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  ERA. Meanwhile, Nestor Cortez, the
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  lefty who was picked up by the Padres by the around the
• 4:39
  deadline, he's two and three with a 5 point O 6 ERA.
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  Now, what are we seeing across the market here?
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  Well, nothing but steam reminds me a little bit of TCU on
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  Monday. Steam no buyback on the dads
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  open this game. Padres around a -, 165 home
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  favorite. We've now seen the Padres get
• 4:56
  steamed up all the way to -180 -, 190 some shops even creeping
• 5:01
  toward -200. So this thing is really moving
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  as we're getting closer and closer to first pitch.
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  So I always love it when you get not just line movement and steam
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  on one side, but late movement right before the game's about to
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  start. A lot of steam came through last
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  couple hours. This afternoon I was able to get
• 5:18
  Padres -185 at ESPN bet. I know it's a little pricey, but
• 5:21
  as always, bettress versus bet to win.
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  But shop around because some books are now over -190 at this
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  point. But I like the splits DraftKings
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  76% of money line bets, but 90% of the dollars are going with
• 5:34
  the Padres. So just kind of tells us we got
• 5:36
  some some further pro and Joe lopsided action in favor of San
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  Diego interleague matchup. Typically lack of familiarity
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  benefits quote UN quote the better team.
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  You also look at some of the best home favorites in baseball.
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  The Padres are one of them. Padres on the year 43 and 24,
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  they're also one of the better teams off a loss if you look at
• 5:57
  San Diego, and again, they've lost two straight when they're
• 5:59
  coming off a loss, they've been pretty good to bet on their 34
• 6:02
  and 27 with an 8% ROI. And if you also get some of the
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  best favorites with a line move, you're favored, you're expected
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  to win the game and the market is moving in your direction.
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  Padres in the spot are 23 and 13 with a 5% ROI, so that's also
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  matching with San Diego. I mentioned Padres great at
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  home, 43 and 24. Baltimore not so great on the
• 6:23
  road, 32 and 39. We also have both these
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  pitchers, obviously both lefties and Eras around 5:00.
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  But Kate Povich, 4.78 ERA and five August starts, not
• 6:36
  terrible, but the Orals are O and five in his last five
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  starts. And actually, Nestor Cortez has
• 6:41
  been pretty decent since he joined the Padres.
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  He has a 3.75 ERA in five starts with San Diego.
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  And in his home starts, his ERA is around 2.
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  I have a match system match here as well.
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  Favorites trying to avoid a sweep.
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  You know, you lost the 1st 2, let's win this one.
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  You got to think about motivation.
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  Padres don't want to get swept at home.
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  Orioles, obviously, they've accomplished their goal already
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  taken 1st 2. So no matter what, they'll take
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  two out of three. Typically, that favorite,
• 7:08
  avoiding the sweep has been a good bet that Cashes a little
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  more than 64% of the time over the last five years #1 bullpen
• 7:15
  with the pods, 3 point O 9 ERA. Baltimore's pen 6th worst in
• 7:20
  baseball, 4.85 ERA. We got 2 lefties on the bump.
• 7:24
  The Padres do hit better against southpaws.
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  They're 14th in baseball, hitting 245.
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  Baltimore ranks 21st against lefties, hitting 233.
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  And lastly, you look at our friends over at Juice Reel.
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  I noticed a 9%. Nothing amazing, but a 9% sharp
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  mush edge in favor of San Diego here to win this game.
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  So it's an early game, late afternoon, whatever you want to
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  call it. 4:10 PM Eastern Time. But Padres looking to avoid the
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  sweep. Nothing but steam in their
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  favor. I'm gonna hope that the pods can
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  come through for us and get a win.
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  I got San Diego -185 at BET MGM or sorry at ESPN BET.
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  I should say next one for you. 6:40 PM Eastern Time, first
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  pitch. I'm going right back to
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  Cincinnati where the Reds are hosting the Toronto Blue Jays.
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  Now, we all saw last night, if you're riding the game we talked
• 8:12
  about on the pod, boy, I think at one point Toronto was up 8 to
• 8:16
  1 and they just kept giving it back.
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  Remember, I distinctly remember on the pod saying Jose Barrios,
• 8:20
  he could pitch again, Gem, or he could get lit up.
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  Well, he got lit up, but luckily the bats of Toronto kept hitting
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  all night. But Toronto 80 and 59 on the
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  year at the Reds, 70 and 69 on the season.
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  This is the rubber match. The Reds won five to four in the
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  opener and obviously Toronto came through 12:00 to 9:00 last
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  night. Pitching match up here for
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  today. We got the Biebs on the bump.
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  Shane Bieber, one and one, 2.38 ERA.
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  He's made two starts with Toronto.
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  He was great in the opener against Miami, 6 innings, one
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  run and he was pretty good against Milwaukee.
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  They lost the game 7:00 to 2:00, but it wasn't his fault, it was
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  the bullpen. He went 5.1 innings pitched,
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  only giving up two earned runs. So the Biebs is on the bump for
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  Toronto. And then the fellow ready Zach
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  Litelle is going for the Reds. He's nine and eight with a 3.63
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  ERA. So what are we seeing across the
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  board here? Well, this game open Toronto
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  around a -, 145 Rd. favorite. Some looks as low as -135 We've
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  now seen the Jays get bet up all the way to -160 -, 165 S Big
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  movement and steam toward Toronto.
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  You know where I want to go with this one. 76% of bets, 80% of
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  dollars at DraftKings going with Toronto.
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  I jumped on Toronto at -160 at Bet MGM.
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  A few things I'm banking on one interleague favorite, lack of
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  familiarity benefiting quote UN quote, the better team.
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  Also, if you look at this spot, you're a Rd. interleague
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  favorite at -150 or more these teams on the year 48 and 2665%
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  win rate. Nothing huge with an ROI because
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  you're laying a minus number. It's about a 2% ROI, but that
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  would match here with Toronto. I'm going to bank on the bats
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  hopefully continuing to stay hot with the Jays.
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  They're hitting 268 on the year. They've hit 168 home runs, 691
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  runs scored. Meanwhile, the Reds, not
• 10:10
  terrible, but not quite as offensively proficient.
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  They're hitting two 48138 homers, 625 runs.
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  One thing I'm going to bank on as well, we talked about it
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  yesterday with Toronto is how they hit very well on the road,
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  hitting 264 as a visitor that ranks second in baseball.
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  And they're number one against righty's hitting 267.
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  So we got the Biebs on the bump. We got the line moving toward
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  the Jays better bats, interleague favorite.
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  And they're number one against righty's and #2 on the road,
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  which is where they are tonight, righty on the road.
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  So I'm going to go right back to Cincinnati.
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  Hope for another Jays victory here.
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  I got Toronto here on the money line -160 at Bet MGM.
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  Last bet of the night. Let's go to Boston, not too far
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  from me, where the Red Sox, 6:45 PM Eastern Time tonight, are
• 10:58
  hosting the Cleveland Guardians. Now, going into this one, we got
• 11:02
  the Red Sox 78 and 62. Raise your hand if you got over
• 11:05
  85 1/2 wins. We're closing in on it, guys.
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  Knock, knock. No jinxing, but Cleveland
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  Guardian 68 and 69 on the season.
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  Red Sox were taking the first two games.
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  They won six to four in the opener.
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  They won again last night, 11 to 7.
• 11:19
  Actually blew a big lead. And if you're like me and a Red
• 11:21
  Sox fan, terrible news with Roman Anthony Stud, rookie,
• 11:25
  actually strained his oblique. He might miss the rest of the
• 11:27
  year. So not great.
• 11:29
  But anyway, all we care about is tonight and hopefully the Sox
• 11:32
  can get a win here. We got Joey Cantillo going for
• 11:35
  the Guardians. He is a lefty 3 and three 3.93
• 11:39
  ERA. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are going
• 11:41
  with Brennan Bernardino. He's four and two with a
• 11:44
  three-point O 8 ERA. He's a bullpen guy.
• 11:46
  Looks like he's going to be the opener here.
• 11:48
  Now, what have we seen across the market?
• 11:50
  Well, nothing but steam on Boston Red Sox open this game as
• 11:54
  low as a -, 130 home favorite. We've not seen the Red Sox get
• 11:58
  steamed up to around -150 I jumped on Boston at -148 at
• 12:03
  FanDuel. So as always, shop around, find
• 12:05
  that best price. I like the Circa splits on the
• 12:08
  Red Sox. They're only getting 62% of
• 12:10
  bets, but 73% of dollars. So it tells me out in Vegas, we
• 12:14
  got a lot of big money going with the Red Sox.
• 12:16
  Offensively, I'm going to bank on Boston.
• 12:18
  They hit very well at home, hit very well in general.
• 12:21
  Obviously no Roman Anthony, but they're hitting 255 on the year,
• 12:24
  169 home runs, 695 runs scored. You look at the Guardians only
• 12:29
  hitting two, 23142 home runs, 530 runs scored.
• 12:35
  You also look at just some classic non division favorite
• 12:38
  value. So really the lack of
• 12:40
  familiarity benefiting quote UN quote the better team.
• 12:44
  The Red Sox would also match the system I have here.
• 12:45
  It's been really good this year. Non division home favorite off a
• 12:48
  win with line move -150 or less. Now they're right around -150
• 12:53
  but still, this system is 98 and 58 this year. 63 percent, 12%
• 12:58
  ROI. Mention the Red Sox hitting well
• 13:00
  at home. They're hitting 265 at Fenway.
• 13:02
  That's the 4th best home batting average in baseball.
• 13:06
  Also, we had a couple lefties on the bump.
• 13:08
  Red Sox shooting 262 against lefties, 4th best in baseball.
• 13:12
  Cleveland's hitting 221 against lefties.
• 13:13
  That ranks 28th in baseball. Red Sox have been good at home
• 13:17
  44 and 27. Cleveland 33 and 36 on the road.
• 13:22
  And lastly, a little cherry on top, popped open the Juice Reel
• 13:25
  app and our buddy the AI bot, Mr. Robo Jackson.
• 13:29
  One of the two best bets today is on the Red Sox.
• 13:32
  So I like that the AI model also likes the Red Sox here.
• 13:36
  So I'm playing it with Boston. Let's let's do it for Roman
• 13:39
  Anthony. I got the Red Sox -148 at
• 13:42
  FanDuel. So the dads, Toronto Blue Jays
• 13:45
  and the Red Sox. Can we find a way to get 2 out
• 13:47
  of 3 eek out of winning day, keep this win streak going.
• 13:50
  That, of course, is the goal. Now just talk baseball.
• 13:54
  Now let's talk football. I know you're excited.
• 13:57
  Obviously, football being back in our lives, nothing better
• 13:59
  than that. But I did write a sharp report
• 14:02
  earlier today for vson.com. You can always check me out on
• 14:05
  Twitter at Josh under score Insights where I write a daily
• 14:07
  article as a betting analyst for VSON.
• 14:10
  But yesterday we talked early college football line movement
• 14:13
  in early system matches. Remember we talked Baylor, Iowa
• 14:16
  State and Oklahoma. It looks like Iowa State's
• 14:19
  getting down to 3. Baylor's down to 2 1/2.
• 14:21
  Now Oklahoma, I'm glad we waited because I think they're down to
• 14:23
  4 1/2. So maybe some more buy back
• 14:26
  there on Michigan. I'm still looking to go
• 14:27
  contrarian with the Sooners though in a primetime game.
• 14:30
  But now let's look at week one of the NFL.
• 14:32
  Now tomorrow, obviously Dallas, Philly to me, it's probably
• 14:36
  Dallas or nothing. They're so contrarian.
• 14:39
  I got a good system match on rhythm, but I'm going to also
• 14:42
  and also division dog, you know, primetime dog got a lot of
• 14:45
  systems on the Cowboys, as gross as it sounds, but I want to wait
• 14:48
  because a lot of books are 8 1/2.
• 14:50
  Does the next move go to 9? Does it come down to 8?
• 14:52
  You would love if you're going to play Dallas to get an 8 1/2
• 14:54
  and then see it get down to 8 and get some CLV.
• 14:57
  But again, I'll write a sharp report tomorrow morning for V
• 15:00
  Syn and we'll talk about on tomorrow's pod.
• 15:02
  So just kind of keep that one pinned and just remember the
• 15:05
  gross hazmat play there is Dallas.
• 15:08
  Now let's talk about some early games that caught my eye.
• 15:11
  So the first one I want to talk about Steelers at The Jets.
• 15:15
  This is a Sunday game. 1:00. Set the stage here and talk
• 15:18
  about what's going on. The Steelers went ten and seven
• 15:21
  last year. Another Mike Tomlin winning
• 15:22
  season loss to the Ravens in the wild card round. 28 to 14.
• 15:27
  Odds makers are thinking they'll be another winning year in
• 15:29
  Pittsburgh. Their win total is 8 1/2 juiced
• 15:32
  over -120 at Bet MGM. Meanwhile, The Jets 5:00 and
• 15:36
  12:00 last year. Win total is 6 1/2 under -145.
• 15:40
  Remember, they got rid of Robert Sala and Aaron Glenn is now
• 15:43
  their head coach. What do we see across the
• 15:45
  market, though? This looks like a really sharp
• 15:48
  line. Freeze.
• 15:48
  RLM play on The Jets. JETS, Jets, Jets, jets.
• 15:52
  Let's do it for Fireman Ed. I got jets plus three guys.
• 15:56
  Now, what have we seen? Well, a lot of books.
• 15:57
  Open pit -2 1/2 -, 3 public is all over the Steelers.
• 16:02
  They're getting right now DraftKings 70% of spread bets.
• 16:07
  However, even though pretty much everyone's playing Pittsburgh
• 16:10
  lines on up to 3 1/2 or 4, it's pretty much stayed at 3:00.
• 16:13
  Any 2 1/2's got up to three. But if you look at all the
• 16:16
  threes out there, they're juiced not toward Pittsburgh -3 -, 115
• 16:21
  like it'll go to 3 1/2. They're juiced like they're
• 16:23
  coming back down to 2 1/2. So plus 3 - 115 on the jet side.
• 16:28
  So that tells me, reading between the lines, everyone
• 16:30
  playing pit, but the odds makers really aren't moving off a three
• 16:33
  or a 2 1/2. Looks like liability line.
• 16:36
  Freeze heavy betting 1 sideline won't move.
• 16:38
  RLM coming back to The Jets on New York now Week 1 dogs mention
• 16:44
  this. I tweeted it out earlier.
• 16:46
  There are 56% against the spread since 2016, 8% ROI week one dogs
• 16:51
  who missed the playoffs the previous year. 57% ATS, 10% ROI
• 16:56
  since 2016. New York is also a correlative
• 16:58
  betting favorite or sorry dog low total.
• 17:01
  So anytime you're on a dog baseball, more runs is better
• 17:05
  for upsets. If you're on a dog in football,
• 17:07
  you want a lower total. Fewer amount of expected run
• 17:10
  score make it harder for the favorite to cover.
• 17:13
  So that would match as we have seen this total fall 39 1/2 down
• 17:16
  to 38 1/2. But the key here for me is
• 17:18
  getting the three. And I was able to get Jets +3
• 17:23
  and I think it was -115 at fanatics.
• 17:26
  And always keep an eye out for like your odds boost and
• 17:28
  bonuses. I had an odds boost where I
• 17:30
  think it was 10%. So I was able to get Jets plus
• 17:32
  three at -1 O 5 S Take advantage of those if, if they're offered
• 17:35
  to you. The Jets plus 2 1/2, though,
• 17:40
  obviously the, the key here to me is getting the three, but if
• 17:44
  you're only at 2 1/2, I don't really hate Jets as a teaser,
• 17:47
  play 2 1/2 up to 8 1/2. You would go through the three
• 17:50
  and the seven, which is what wise guys like to do.
• 17:52
  There's a great book called Stanford Wong or by Stanford
• 17:55
  Wong that really does a great job of explaining.
• 17:57
  He's credited with kind of coming up with that, that
• 18:00
  teaser. But also you look at Rhythm
• 18:03
  popped open my Rhythm app and I have a green star recommended
• 18:06
  play on The Jets and Rhythm has The Jets plus 1.7.
• 18:10
  So if you're getting a three or against the public line, freeze
• 18:13
  RLM back to The Jets. Super contrary and no one wants
• 18:17
  to play them. I'm liking The Jets in the spot.
• 18:19
  So I already bet this game. Guys, I got jets plus 3 -, 1 O 5
• 18:23
  at fanatics with that odds boost.
• 18:25
  Next one for you. Hold your nose because if if
• 18:27
  you're like me, you love this one and you're scared to death
• 18:31
  The giants at the commanders. Let's set the stage.
• 18:34
  The G men 3 and 14 last year. But oddsmakers do expect New
• 18:38
  York to be a little bit better with Russell Wilson.
• 18:40
  Remember, they picked up Jackson Dart and Abdul Carter in the
• 18:43
  draft. Their win totals 5 1/2 and the
• 18:45
  over is juiced to -120 so can the Giants, you know, creep up
• 18:49
  the six wins? We'll see.
• 18:51
  On the other hand, Commanders, obviously, they were incredible.
• 18:53
  And Jaden Daniels rookie year went 12 and five, went all the
• 18:56
  way to the NFC title game, but got rolled by the Eagles 55 to
• 18:59
  23. Now, what do we see across the
• 19:01
  market? Will the Commanders open this
• 19:03
  game way back when at -7 1/2 at home and the public, they don't
• 19:08
  care about this big number, they love Jayden Daniels.
• 19:10
  Giants stink. Lay the points with the
• 19:12
  Washington Commanders right? However, even though 2/3 of bets
• 19:15
  at DraftKings are going Commanders, the sign keeps
• 19:18
  falling toward the Giants. Giants went from plus 7 1/2 now
• 19:22
  down to +6 and a lot of books are even down to 5 1/2 now.
• 19:26
  The importance to me of shopping around ESPN bet right now is
• 19:31
  still offering Giants with the hook plus 6 1/2 at -120 So
• 19:36
  that's what I jumped on. Obviously it's gross, but we got
• 19:39
  public Washington line going to the Giants.
• 19:42
  If you can get the 6 1/2, you're being a closing line.
• 19:44
  If you can only get a six, I'd wait it out.
• 19:46
  You know, maybe, maybe it creeps back up anyway.
• 19:49
  But if we get the splits at DraftKings, only 37% of bets,
• 19:52
  but 48% of dollars are on the Giants.
• 19:55
  And at Circa get a load of this 45% of bets, 92% of dollars on
• 20:00
  the Giants. You also look at system matches.
• 20:03
  Week 1 Rd. dogs 59% against the spread, 14% ROI since 2016.
• 20:09
  Divisional dogs. I love these divisional dogs.
• 20:11
  Built in familiarity leads to closer games. 31 and 16 ATS 66%
• 20:18
  Twenty 6% ROI since 2016. And oh by the way, Russell
• 20:22
  Wilson. Say what you want about Wilson,
• 20:24
  but he's 44 and 27 against the spread as a dog. 62% win rate,
• 20:29
  20% ROI. Also our friends at at Juice
• 20:33
  Reel, 7% chart mush edge on the G men.
• 20:36
  So I know it seems gross commanders will blow them out,
• 20:39
  but hey, the data is telling us we got some good sharp action
• 20:42
  contrarian opportunity. And again, shop around.
• 20:45
  ESPN bet if you want to play it. I got that ESPN bet plus 6 1/2
• 20:49
  -, 120. So let's go G men last early bet
• 20:54
  for me. Another gross one for you.
• 20:57
  Bengals at the Cleveland Browns, 1:00 on Sunday.
• 21:01
  Bengals went nine and eight last year, narrowly missed the
• 21:03
  playoffs last game of the season.
• 21:06
  This year, Bengals, they, they paid their, they've got to
• 21:08
  credit them. They paid their guys, T Higgins,
• 21:10
  Jamar Chase, they even gave gave Trent Trey Hendrickson some
• 21:13
  money. Joe Burrows back, of course.
• 21:16
  Their win total is 9 1/2 over. Slightly juiced -115 Browns, of
• 21:21
  course, terrible last year, 3 and 14.
• 21:23
  Their win total is 5 1/2 under -150 so maybe they take a slight
• 21:28
  boost here. Three wins up to 5.
• 21:31
  What have we seen across the market?
• 21:32
  Well, the Bengals opened as a six point Rd. favorite.
• 21:35
  And guys, this is the most lopsided game of Week 1 right
• 21:39
  now. Nearly 80% of spread bets are on
• 21:42
  Cincinnati. And you know what?
• 21:43
  What we like to do there, bet against the public Publix all
• 21:47
  over. The Bengals, however, even
• 21:49
  though they open -6 they're down to 5 1/2 and some shops are even
• 21:53
  down to 5 now. I was hoping to get a six.
• 21:56
  I missed it. And 5 1/2 is a bit of a dead
• 21:59
  zone, but I'm seeing some books like it may go down to 5.
• 22:02
  So I actually did bet Browns plus 5 1/2.
• 22:04
  I'm thinking we that might be the best number here.
• 22:07
  The Browns other than being the top contrarian play of the week,
• 22:10
  only getting 20% of bets. If you look out at circa 33% of
• 22:14
  bets, 87% of dollars on Cleveland.
• 22:18
  So a really good split there in favor of the Browns.
• 22:21
  You're matching a lot of systems with Cleveland.
• 22:23
  Week one dogs, 56% against the spread since 2016.
• 22:27
  Both missed the postseason. Take the dog 58% ATS since 2016.
• 22:32
  The key though, is the divisional dogs.
• 22:34
  They're they've been really good, especially in week 159%
• 22:38
  against the spread. So that would also match with
• 22:40
  Cleveland. So everybody and their mother is
• 22:42
  on the Bengals, but the line is moving a bit down toward
• 22:45
  Cleveland. You look at our friends at
• 22:48
  Rhythm get a load of this Green Star recommended play.
• 22:51
  They have Browns plus 4.3. So if we're getting 5 1/2,
• 22:56
  that's more than a full point of actionable equity.
• 22:59
  So believe it or not, guys, I'm holding my nose.
• 23:01
  Let's go Flacco. He's still elite.
• 23:03
  He better be Week 1. I got the Browns plus 5 1/2.
• 23:06
  So Jets, Giants, Browns, get those good numbers, hooks and
• 23:09
  key numbers. Those are my 3 early bets for
• 23:12
  Week 1. So that about does it for
• 23:14
  episode 345 of the All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast
• 23:18
  powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 23:20
  where we wrap things up. And of course, we always start
• 23:23
  by saying thank you. Thank you for taking the time
• 23:25
  out of your day, out of your busy lives.
• 23:27
  And we got a lot going on. You know, people are kids are
• 23:30
  going back to school. Obviously there's there's
• 23:33
  football in the air. They already have Halloween
• 23:35
  candy. I noticed that at CVS.
• 23:37
  So hey, Halloween's not far off. But you guys keep tuning in and
• 23:41
  we've seen a big boost and and listens ever since football came
• 23:44
  back. So I can tell you guys are
• 23:45
  excited to sweat some football. But as always, thank you for
• 23:49
  listening. Please, if you enjoy the
• 23:51
  insights, would you think about giving this podcast a five star
• 23:54
  review on Spotify or iTunes? I want to apologize.
• 23:57
  Spotify wouldn't get uploaded yesterday very quickly and I had
• 24:00
  to tweet it out from iHeartRadio and iTunes.
• 24:03
  So there are other ways to listen to the pod, YouTube as
• 24:05
  well. But if you'd like to leave a
• 24:08
  nice comment, good review, maybe recommend the pod to a friend.
• 24:11
  I would very much appreciate that.
• 24:13
  And always if, when I tweet out the pod, if you want to retweet
• 24:15
  it, hey, that's awesome as well. Next, if you enjoy the style of
• 24:20
  betting breakdown, data-driven, sharp contrarian betting, I
• 24:23
  would love for you guys to buy one or both of my books.
• 24:27
  The everything guide to sports betting, the NFL sharp betting
• 24:29
  playbook. All you got to do is go to
• 24:32
  Amazon.com, type it in. I'll pick up one or both,
• 24:35
  especially the NFL sharp betting playbook.
• 24:37
  It's my new baby. Obviously the everything guide
• 24:39
  is just kind of the blueprint of how to go contrarian and and
• 24:42
  follow sharp action. But the NFL sharp betting
• 24:44
  playbook came out August 12th. You guys know by now, but please
• 24:47
  continue to tweet me a picture of you holding up the book.
• 24:51
  I'd love to retweet it. And I'm fishing for a five star
• 24:54
  reviews and and nice comments on Amazon because those are really
• 24:57
  important. We're still #1 new release in
• 25:00
  the sports gambling category. So I'm really excited about
• 25:02
  that. But buy one or both of my books,
• 25:04
  bring them to the sports book. I'll sign them for you, I'll buy
• 25:06
  you a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some games together
• 25:10
  next to be downloaded Rhythm and juice real yet rhythm
• 25:13
  unbelievable in terms of their AI backed models and
• 25:15
  predictions. We do have our Thursday night
• 25:17
  rhythm rundown tomorrow night at 6:00 so hope to see you guys
• 25:20
  there. They also have a contest in
• 25:22
  rhythm. Now you can win up to $1000
• 25:25
  creating the best model, so please do that.
• 25:27
  There's also a discord at someone DM me about the discord.
• 25:30
  You can join from rhythm as well.
• 25:32
  You just click the profile icon once you download the app top
• 25:35
  right and just click join discord, but also you got to
• 25:38
  download Juice reel, another great, fantastic sports betting
• 25:42
  app that you should add to your arsenal.
• 25:44
  If you want to support the pod $4.99 a week.
• 25:47
  You get every best bet that the that I make on the podcast and
• 25:51
  again, I don't consider it selling pics bad connotation.
• 25:54
  Of course, I consider it supporting your podcast, tipping
• 25:57
  your podcast host. So for $4.99 a week you can get
• 26:00
  those plays and support the pod directly from Juice Reel.
• 26:04
  You also get the Robo Jackson best bet picks, the sharp mush
• 26:06
  indicators, the arbitrage plays, the shop for the best line
• 26:09
  features all located in the Juice Reel app.
• 26:12
  So download Rhythm and download Juice Reel.
• 26:14
  Give them a five star review in the App Store.
• 26:17
  Next, do you have a live odds page?
• 26:18
  You need a live odds page. Everything, all the info I'm
• 26:22
  giving you, it starts with the live odds page.
• 26:24
  What did the line open it? How was it moved?
• 26:27
  You know, shopping for the best price, getting the best number,
• 26:29
  identifying steam. Padres jumped out to me because
• 26:32
  my Odds Logic live odds page got lit up in red.
• 26:35
  Everyone hammering the Padres. So hopefully they come through
• 26:37
  here this afternoon. But if you need a live odds
• 26:40
  page, especially the busy time of year, you got to give a shot
• 26:43
  to Odds Logic. All you got to do is go to
• 26:45
  oddslogic.com/josh 123. You'll get a 7 day free trial
• 26:51
  and 50% off your first month of service.
• 26:54
  And of course, as I mentioned earlier, come join the survivor
• 26:57
  splash contest that I've created. 25 bucks you could win
• 27:01
  U to 11000 O That about does it as always, guys.
• 27:05
  Two final thoughts. One, whether I see you at the
• 27:07
  Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the
• 27:10
  Brooklyn, New Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in
• 27:13
  Connecticut, the encore in Boston, plain Ridge Park casino,
• 27:16
  MGM Springfield, the Nash and Nashville, New Hampshire.
• 27:19
  We're out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
• 27:21
  Billy Walters sends his number runners.
• 27:23
  The lowest use possible is found at the South point or sweat and
• 27:26
  sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swim pool.
• 27:29
  When you cash a big ticket at Circa, we're going to meet at
• 27:32
  the Book and we're just going to lean into the janitor's closet,
• 27:35
  bust out a broom, do a little Fred of stair dance because we
• 27:38
  got a nice sweep last night. 3 and O + 2.16 units.
• 27:42
  Show me a Blue Jays ticket. What a sweat that was.
• 27:45
  Cubs ticket. Yankees over 7 and a half.
• 27:47
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 27:49
  We'll sweat some baseball tonight.
• 27:51
  As always, guys 3 and OO and three, two and one, one and two.
• 27:56
  After a great night or a terrible night, mediocre night,
• 27:59
  we just got to keep grinding, never get too high, never get
• 28:01
  too low. Great night, never as good as we
• 28:03
  think. Terrible night.
• 28:04
  We're never as bad as worth as we think.
• 28:06
  We're always somewhere in the middle.
• 28:07
  We're always grinding, trying to make sharp, data-driven bets
• 28:10
  with our head and not our heart. So the plays we look for goes a
• 28:14
  little something like this. Against the public, with the
• 28:17
  house, with the pros. Flat bet avoid parlays, get that
• 28:19
  CLV if we can do that, we're going to be successful sports
• 28:23
  betters. So have a great Wednesday night
• 28:25
  everybody. I will see you back at it
• 28:27
  tomorrow. Big day tomorrow get ready.
• 28:29
  Got the NFL Cowboys. Can they cover that number?
• 28:33
  And then we also have I wanted to mention there is a James
• 28:35
  Madison game I think that's on Friday when I kept going to
• 28:39
  James Madison getting 15 down to 13 now.
• 28:42
  So we have some college football in a couple days as well.
• 28:46
  And also there's a Friday night NFL game, Kansas City Chargers.
• 28:50
  So can you get the the Chargers with the 3 1/2?
• 28:52
  I'm looking for that as well. But anyway, guys have a great
• 28:56
  Wednesday night and get some rest because it all starts
• 28:59
  tomorrow. The big marathon, not the Sprint
• 29:02
  for NFL betting. Have a good luck and I will see
• 29:04
  you tomorrow for a big thirsty Thursday.
• 29:06
  Remember 6:00 Eastern is our rhythm live stream.
• 29:09
  I'll see you guys on tomorrow's pod.
• 29:11
  That'll be episode 346 of the All Systems Go sports betting
• 29:15
  podcast powered by Rhythm. Good luck everybody, and enjoy
• 29:19
  the MLB sweats for tonight. Good luck.