Latest / Quantum Bombs / The AI Crash Nobody's Talking About 💣
Transcript
- Quantum Bombs. Welcome to Quantum Bombs, a commentary show on the human condition through metaphysics and freedom. Oh, today is a good one. We are going to be looking at our future. I want you to pick the most likely future we have with AI. Oh yes, I'm going to give you four different likely scenarios and a wild card. But my promise to you is that it's likely from a scenario you haven't considered or maybe even heard of yet. And we're going to be looking at these through a financial lens. Now I have a very big confession about today's episode. It's been a bit since I filmed and you want to know why? I tried to bring this dystopic AI episode to you with an AI clone of myself. Obviously, I'm not into this. I hope you know that. I've been a TV host and an actor and in this one camera business for 14 years, it brings me so much joy to yammer and look into a black hole of a camera. So the last thing I want to do is be replacing myself with a digital bimbo. That's what I called her. She called herself that. So I went through basically paid 80 bucks and I found out my digital clone sucked too bad. And the topic of today's episode is too good for you to click away and miss it simply because I replaced myself with a clone of myself that isn't quite like myself. It's very presumptuous of me, but I will let you meet her in the episode. In fact, she's going to be wearing the same thing I'm wearing. Starting with this video, this digital bimbo is replacing me. Just kidding. Kind of. Look, Beth is being real with herself and with the market. She's going to use AI as needed, but she hopes to be on camera for majority of her shows. And every word I speak, she technically dictates so much for my free will. You can try to figure out, is that Beth's clone or is that really Beth? And you'll probably tell because her gestures just aren't there yet and I couldn't do it to you guys. Today's episode is too sexy. It's too sexy for y'all. So I want to go over the first off the financials of all of this because we've got to understand that before I give you our four most likely futures that I think and that you need to tell me if I'm just batshit crazy or not. I got the idea to make this episode watching the diary of a CEO. Daniel Priestly, this AI guy was on there and what he said. Stop me in my tracks. He said something along the lines of the last 180 years that we've spent more than 3% of our GDP on a single infrastructure build out. It has crashed the economy every single time. Railroads crashed us twice in the UK and twice in the US. Electrification has crashed us. Highways has crashed us. All of these infrastructure build outs have crashed us. And guess where we are right now with AI tech investment? It hit 4% of our GDP. So we're already 1% over past the danger zone. But here's what makes this worse than all of them before. When we built railroads, those tracks lasted hundreds of years. You crash, you recover, but at least the tracks are still there and the people are riding trains. Roads, 50 years. Fiber optic cables, they lasted 30 years. The data centers, the giant Costco-sized buildings full of computers that actually run this lovely AI. Guess how long they last guys? They last four years. Before the hardware is obsolete and completely needs replacing. So let that sink in. We are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on infrastructure that has the shelf life of your iPhone, except your iPhone only cost about $1,000. In 2025 alone, the big tech companies spent $413 billion on data centers. In 2026, they're projecting up to $700 billion. But here's the kicker. 95% of people using AI aren't paying for it. And the 5% who are, they're paying about $20 a month. The math ain't mathin'. Take open AI. They're projecting $74 billion in losses in 2028 alone. That's not a typo. And they're not even the biggest spender. Combined, the five biggest companies plan to add $2 trillion in AI infrastructure to their balance sheets by 2030. Those assets depreciate at 20% per year, which means they face $400 billion a year in depreciation alone, more than their combined profits. It's a treadmill. They have to keep spending just to stay in place. Someone call Ron Paul to save us. A Harvard economist found that without data center spending, US GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was basically zero. The entire American economy was essentially three data centers in a trench coat pretending to be growth. So who's funding all this? It's not the government, not yet anyway. It's mostly the tech companies themselves burning through their own cash, borrowing money by issuing bonds and raising money from venture capitalists and investors who are betting AI will eventually print money. Think of it like this. The tech companies are putting the entire AI revolution on a credit card. And in early 2026, when the big tech companies went to borrow another $100 billion, the lender said, sure, but we want extra protection in case you can't pay us back. That's not normal. That's Wall Street language for we're nervous. We bailed out the banks in 2008 with $635 billion because they were too big to fail. We as taxpayers are already funding billions in fraud. Can we afford to fund technocrats riding into their new Wild West? OK, so let's play the game now. Scenario number one. AI wins, we lose. This is the one that everybody's afraid of, that AI takes our job. The tech bros get rich, the rest of the US becomes serfs and a digital feudal system. The data center's spending pays off. AI gets so good so fast, the companies replace human workers at a scale that saves trillions in labor cost. Stock prices go to the moon. The people who own the AI companies become unfathomably wealthy. Meanwhile, the radiologist, the copywriter, the paralegal, the graphic designer, and especially this quirky TV host gets not fired, but just not needed. The government scrambles. Maybe they're trying to use some UBI, Universal Basic Income. Congratulations, here's $18 from your government that's $39 trillion in debt. Yeah, we just hit $39 trillion. Yay, good luck us. Likelihood is scenario one. I'm giving it 20% because it says everything goes as planned. Nothing gets off and sets us off our trajectory. Man, today I'm just, I'm awful. Forgive me, forgive me. Trajectory and history taught us that life doesn't typically work out that way. Okay, scenario two. Double crash, everyone loses. This is the one that Daniel Priestly was talking about on the diary of a CEO. And the math supports it more than any other scenario, two crashes back to back. Here's how it'll play out. Let's say roughly 2028, 2029. And for those that like patterns exactly 100 years after the Great Depression, the financial model collapses, the data centers need replacing. There isn't enough revenue to justify rebuilding those big old things. The investors stop funding companies and they lay off. The AI boom turns into the AI bust. That's the crash one, the money crash. Here's where it gets dark. You've already been nervous about your job. Companies already used AI as the excuse to restructure. Now the AI companies themselves are laying off people, the engineers, the data scientists, the people who build the thing that took your job. Meanwhile, we're somewhere in a warehouse. There's a robot that could theoretically be doing our laundry, except you can't afford that lovely little robot. And the company that made the robot just went bankrupt. Then the crash two, the hardware crash. This is roughly 2031 or 2032. The data centers that survived the crash one and are now obsolete and nobody has the capital to rebuild them. So during that second period of four years, the AI got worse, not better. Services started glitching, slowing, disappearing. If you could afford that laundry robot, it starts putting dirty clothes directly into your dryer. So unlike the railroads that left us with tracks that lasted centuries, when the AI bubble pops, the thing we built doesn't stick around. It rots three years and nobody rebuilds it. The likelihood 30%, the math is ugly, the historical pattern is real. And now we go to scenario three. The double crash, but guys, we win. Same two crashes, completely different ending. Here's where this digital bimbo, that's me, hi, actually has something hopeful to say. Every infrastructure bubble in history crashed. And every single time humanity came out better, the railroad barons went bankrupt. We kept the railroads. The dot com bubble destroyed five trillion in market value. Pets.com died. We kept the internet and everything you do today runs on what survived. So what if AI crashes? And that's the point. Right now, AI is controlled by a handful of companies, centralized, expensive, gated. Nobody asked you if you wanted an intrusive, quote unquote, AI upgrade for humanity. Five percent of you are paying 20 bucks a month for a product that costs more to run than what you're paying. Fire sale. The money crash kills the gatekeepers. The hardware crash kills the expensive proprietary path. And the technology, it survives in open source. The talent scatters out of dying companies and builds in garages. Small players enter. Competition drives prices to basically zero. The billionaires eat the losses. Larry Page literally said, and I quote, I'm willing to go bankrupt rather than lose this race. Great. Let them all go bankrupt racing each other to the bottom. When the dust settles, we inherit the technology without the gatekeepers. In this world, AI doesn't disappear. What disappears is the insane financial structure wrapped all around it. Oh, yes. This is our seat at the table that we weren't even invited to. So scenario two, the billionaires take us down with them. Scenario three, they go down alone. Likelihood 25%. Same two crash scenarios, two radically different outcomes. Scenario four, the slow creep, a.k.a. the one that nobody wants to talk about. Here's the option that doesn't make for a good thumbnail. AI doesn't take over. It doesn't crash. It's just keeps going incrementally better every year. We get weird robots in our homes, massive job losses in some sectors, new jobs and others. Life continues, but here's the catch. We now have a real international digital grid that tracks us and our money. More automated, a little more convenient, a lot less private, dystopic, but nobody's a surf. Haha. I just kid you, we are 100% serves, but that's debatable. And a whole show for another day. Nothing crashes. Your grandkids think of AI the way that you think of Wi-Fi. It's just there. It changed everything and you are told to be grateful. This is the boring option, which is exactly why it's probably the real one. Likelihood 20%. And I'll explain why shortly, but this is quantum bombs, not quantum lullabies. We came to earth for the drama, whether you're aware of it or not. And now for the promise wildcard. It's all a dog and pony show is what I call this one. What if AI doesn't actually need a Costco full of computers? I had dinner with a friend recently who told me that everything AI does could theoretically be done on something the size of a thumb drive. Now he also then contradicted himself and said it would somehow need to be hooked back into the mothership. So maybe it's not quite a thumb drive, but the question stands. What if the reason these companies are spending $700 billion a year is the same reason every big industry over builds? Because the spending is the product. It's the same money laundering similar to our arms race. Hello military industrial complex. Think about it. Data centers construction alone is propping up the entire US economy right now. Pull it out and the GDP growth drops to near zero. These companies are issuing $100 billion bonds. They're keeping Wall Street busy, keeping construction workers employed, keeping chip manufacturers. Oh, we love to buy our stock. Nvidia running at capacity. What if AI itself could be smaller, leaner, more efficient, but nobody wants it except the consumers? Well, I don't know. That's a big balance. But okay, because the entire economic engine depends on it being big and expensive. For example, think about the transistor. When it was invented in 1947, computers filled entire rooms. The transistor made them small enough to fit in your pocket. Nobody needed to build bigger rooms. They needed a better idea. What if AI's transistor moment hasn't happened yet? And when it does, all of these Walmart sized data centers become as obsolete as the room sized computers they replaced. I'm not saying this is true. I'm saying it's the kind of question that we healthy minds should be asking. Dang sexy, isn't it? So what is the likelihood I give it? 5%. Why? Because while it, I would say 50-50 chance, it's most likely true. We will find a dramatically cheaper way to do it. But it won't happen because humans are imperfect. Power and greed prevails. If you look at the, I don't know how to say it, the some lack of word right now. If you look at the high, the amount of energy put into hiding free energy radical zero point energy that has been hidden. Watch the documentary the last century. The laundry list of probably a now over 50 to 100 scientists killed to keep free energy away from people. The same reason that we probably aren't giving the cures to cancer and making them more well publicly known. Is why our AI will stay gate kept and expensive. And we need to remain a debt driven industry along with all our other debt structures. Okay, so here's where we're at scenario one takes over. We're surfs 20%. Scenario two, the bubble pops double crash. It's ugly 30%. Scenario three, the bubble pops, but we get to inherit the infrastructure 25%. And scenario four, the big old slow creep nothing burger 20%. The wild card, the whole thing is theater 5%. So if you notice the scenarios through all. So if we take a look at this, these scenarios, the first one is a crash. So we actually have three out of four of these options or some type of financial crash and reset. Let's say it's 2026 up till 32 within the next six years. And only one of these, we thread the needle, avoid a crash and just kind of meandering. It typically should be a 45% that because historically it's that slow creep that works out. The reason I gave it 20% and not 45% is because this is going to be strapped on top of a debt infrastructure of $39 trillion. We have people that like to look at the future patterns of the world on the, we're in the beginning of the fourth turning, I believe it's called. And it's just not looking good. So it's basically a fragile infrastructure that we're packing this AI problem. So do we really think it's just going to sit on top of there on our perfect house of cards, let card going right on top and just we're going to ride this wave, baby. Things are just going to continue. So those are the numbers and the real question really isn't what happens to AI. It's what happens to we humans on something that eight billion people on planet earth didn't ask for from these five large companies that are in an arms race with China and Russia. Are we building this because we're evolving or because we're afraid because every civilization that has collapsed did so while they were convinced they were advancing. Our technological evolution has outpaced our emotional and spiritual evolution. We have medieval minds with modern capacities. I'm working on a three part documentary series and that is the thesis. So I've wanted to weave that into another episode while I was thinking about it. All right. Well, I hope you enjoyed our little dystopic look on our four most likely outcomes. It's actually not that depressing. We are souls on a journey and I'm not saying that to be corny. I literally mean it. You came here. You signed up to come to earth to muck about. We're able to feel our emotions in a physical way here on planet earth. We are living at phenomenally interesting times. So while we complain about AI, I at least there's never a dull day I could say. So let me know in the comments what you think about these scenarios. What I would like to hear though from you is also what other scenarios are possible for us besides those four in my fifth wild car that is probably going to be happening and simmering in the background. But we won't ever find out about. Let me know in the comments. Meanwhile, guys, stay free, but stay human.