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How Does Wall Street Feel About Trump Now? · Trumponomics

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio NEWSOM. I'm Nancy Cook, a
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Speaker 1: senior national political correspondent for Bloomberg News, in for Stephanie Flanders.
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Speaker 1: This week, Welcome to trump Anomics, the Bloomberg podcast that
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Speaker 1: looks at the economic world of Donald Trump, how he
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Speaker 1: has already shaped the global economy and what on earth
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Speaker 1: is going to happen next. So this week we're bringing
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Speaker 1: the focus back from Europe and the Middle East and
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Speaker 1: asking a question that centers around the mood on Wall Street.
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Speaker 1: Our bankers still celebrating Trump's return. What does the way
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Speaker 1: Wall Street is moving money tell us about their feelings
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Speaker 1: with me from our offices in New York. Are our
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Speaker 1: two star reporters from our finance team, schreidhar naderin our
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Speaker 1: chief Wall Street correspondent. Welcome Stree. I thought of you
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Speaker 1: as soon as I wanted to do this story because
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Speaker 1: we had so much fun together at the Democratic National
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Speaker 1: Convention in August.
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Speaker 2: And how different was the mood back then. I think
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Speaker 2: I remember we were tripsing through that convention floor with
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Speaker 2: all the balloons falling down. Unfortunately for the Democrats, that
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Speaker 2: mood did not carry over into November.
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Speaker 1: You are so right. And then Hannah Lovett, who covers
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Speaker 1: JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley and has been speaking with
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Speaker 1: a lot of executives in the last few months. Welcome Hannah, Hey,
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Speaker 1: thank you for having me. Of course, so it's probably
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Speaker 1: worth remembering. We got an early read on how bank
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Speaker 1: executives were viewing Donald Trump's return to the White House
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Speaker 1: at the World Economic Forum in Davos this year. They were,
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Speaker 1: for the most part elated about the prospect of fewer
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Speaker 1: regulations and more deals. The consensus was a market focused
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Speaker 1: deal maker was at the helm of the US economy
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Speaker 1: and that would present a new era of opportunity with
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Speaker 1: money to be made. So here we are, roughly one
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Speaker 1: month later, and how to finance executives feel now and
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Speaker 1: what can we learn beyond the rhetoric and more the
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Speaker 1: actual trades. Sree, why don't we start with you?
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Speaker 2: If you want a good proxy for feelings and vibes
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Speaker 2: on Wall Street, I think the best indicator is obviously
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Speaker 2: the stock price for those individual companies and their firms.
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Speaker 2: And if you look at what's happened since November fifth,
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Speaker 2: since the night of the election, we've pretty much had
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Speaker 2: a consistent charge up on some of the major stocks
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Speaker 2: Goldman Sachs all time high, JP, Morgan all time high.
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Speaker 2: The private equity stocks have also been climbing since November.
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Speaker 2: So the feeling there at least the immediate reaction to
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Speaker 2: the result has been this will be good for big business,
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Speaker 2: This will be good for big Wall Street. One of
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Speaker 2: the points you just mentioned was deal making. We've so
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Speaker 2: far had about five hundred and sixty billion dollars worth
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Speaker 2: of deals announced globally quarter to date, which is a
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Speaker 2: decent number. But if I go back to Q one
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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four, that number was nine hundred and sixty billion.
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Speaker 2: That explains why. When Wall Street executors were talking at
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Speaker 2: a major financial services conference last week, one of the
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Speaker 2: questions that analysts kept asking them was, you've all talked
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Speaker 2: about this pickup and deal making, Why has it not
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Speaker 2: really materialized. It feels slower than it should be, And
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Speaker 2: the answer was truly, yes, it is slower. We're having
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Speaker 2: a lot more conversations. A lot of these dealmaking discussions
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Speaker 2: are at the five yard line. They've just not converted.
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Speaker 2: You could have the gusher open anytime. But it does
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Speaker 2: go back to the idea that yes, there are a
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Speaker 2: lot of things about the Trump administration and the way
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Speaker 2: they talk to big business and about big business that
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Speaker 2: automatically generates this sense of enthusiasm and hope for these companies.
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Speaker 2: But there is also the Trumpian policy uncertainty that they
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Speaker 2: have to deal with. When you have all the questions
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Speaker 2: about tariffs and it attacks policy changing one day to
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Speaker 2: the other, and Trump's attention span going from his one
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Speaker 2: favorite subject to perhaps something else the next day, and
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Speaker 2: not showing which one will come through and which one
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Speaker 2: will fall by the wayside. That does create a little
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Speaker 2: bit of an obstacle for business, and they'll have to
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Speaker 2: figure out a good way to navigate it.
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Speaker 1: On that, Hannah, you've been talking to a lot of executives.
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Speaker 1: I wonder how they're feeling about that point that Tree
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Speaker 1: brings up about the tariffs. You know, I know that
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Speaker 1: they are excited about the possibility of lower taxes and
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Speaker 1: less regulation. But the tariff policy, my reporting shows it
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Speaker 1: is really uncertain, And I wonder how executives are feeling
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Speaker 1: about that.
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Speaker 3: Yeah, totally, So, I would say to Shred's point, there's
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Speaker 3: still broadly this palpable optimism. Various bank executives have described
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Speaker 3: it as animal spirits and all of that. But it's
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Speaker 3: a bit more CAVEATD today than it was a couple
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Speaker 3: months ago and even a few weeks ago before inauguration,
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Speaker 3: and that really stems from just kind of all the
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Speaker 3: uncertainty and some of these executives, you know, whether it
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Speaker 3: be bank executives or you know, CEOs of companies that
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Speaker 3: they bank and things like that, they need more certainty
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Speaker 3: before they move forward with these strategic actions like you know,
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Speaker 3: deals or IPOs and all of that. And the tariffs
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Speaker 3: are an element of that. You know. I covered JP Morgan,
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Speaker 3: as you said, and Jamie Diamond, the CEO there, said
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Speaker 3: last month that tariffs, if they're properly used, can be
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Speaker 3: effective to resolve things like unfair competition, national security things
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Speaker 3: like that, but they can also do damage if they're misused.
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Speaker 3: And he's described Trump as a negotiator and said that
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Speaker 3: tariff talk will get people to the table. But I
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Speaker 3: think there's a bit of a wait and see attitude
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Speaker 3: as far as how all of that shakes out now.
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Speaker 3: On the market side, though, the you know, these banks
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Speaker 3: have these huge trading desks, and it spells more of
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Speaker 3: an opportunity on that, you know, market moves, volatility, you
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Speaker 3: know that that translates generally into banks making money on
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Speaker 3: those trades. So that has continued. We saw some of
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Speaker 3: that in the fourth quarter, and it seems like that's
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Speaker 3: continued into the first quarter.
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Speaker 2: And if I could quickly jump in and thinking back
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Speaker 2: to the time when Hannah and I started working together
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Speaker 2: about seven years ago, now there was this predominant concept,
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Speaker 2: you know, when we talked about volatility in markets and
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Speaker 2: how it impacted the trading desk, the markets businesses of
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Speaker 2: these big banks. The talk was always around whether it's
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Speaker 2: good volatility or bad volatility. Funnily enough, I think in
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Speaker 2: the last couple of years, especially with a lot of
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Speaker 2: changes that have been made, banks have gotten themselves into
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Speaker 2: a position where and look, if there is a massive
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Speaker 2: market correction, yes, they would also be affected because they're
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Speaker 2: in the business of buying from one party and selling
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Speaker 2: to another party. So if there are massive moves, they
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Speaker 2: will be affected. But the businesses have been structured in
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Speaker 2: a way that it's almost their ability to make money,
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Speaker 2: their ability to transact and the revenue is almost dependent
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Speaker 2: on the volume and less so on the direction of markets.
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Speaker 2: And upmarket obviously helps so in general, if you look
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Speaker 2: at this idea that you will have a higher uptick
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Speaker 2: in volatility over the next few months, next few quarters,
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Speaker 2: or perhaps throughout Trump two point zero, that will generally
7:00
Speaker 2: be good for a lot of these trading businesses. And
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Speaker 2: for the biggest Wall Street firms, that is a big
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Speaker 2: source of revenue, That is a major source of earnings
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Speaker 2: for them.
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Speaker 3: Absolutely, And I would just say JP Morgan, which has
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Speaker 3: the biggest trading business on Wall Street, they had their
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Speaker 3: highest fourth quarter trading revenue ever when they reported in
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Speaker 3: mid January. And so that's the level of momentum that
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Speaker 3: executives have since described as continuing. And I was speaking
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Speaker 3: to a bank executive earlier today actually who said market
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Speaker 3: movements are generally good for Wall Street unless it's a shock.
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Speaker 3: So I think that really sums up, you know, ratifies
7:34
Speaker 3: what she was saying.
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Speaker 1: And then I'm also curious, sort of who are the
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Speaker 1: Wall Street whispers in the Trump White House. I know
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Speaker 1: a big complaint of the Biden White House was that
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Speaker 1: they did not have a lot of connections to Wall Street,
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Speaker 1: and so I'm wondering what you're hearing about those two things.
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Speaker 2: Let me first start with the second part of your question, Nancy, So,
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Speaker 2: I think when we think about some of the key
7:55
Speaker 2: characters in the Trump orbit, Susie Wilds played a massive
8:00
Speaker 2: role in sort of the campaign and now at the
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Speaker 2: White House. She is perhaps one of the few people
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Speaker 2: in that immediate Trump circle, in that immediate group of
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Speaker 2: decision makers and Trump world, who's not that well known
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Speaker 2: to Wall Street. She doesn't really come from that background.
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Speaker 2: Not a lot of people have had time to build
8:17
Speaker 2: connections with her. But if you move past Susie Wills,
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Speaker 2: you look at the cost of other characters, Howard Lutnik,
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Speaker 2: extremely well known to Wall Street, Scott Besson creature of
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Speaker 2: Wall Street, extremely well known to all the major players,
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Speaker 2: that even folks like Doug Bergham have been like big
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Speaker 2: clients of firms like Goldman Sachs over the years. So
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Speaker 2: there are enough folks in that orbit that you're very,
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Speaker 2: very unlikely to hear the same complaint about this administration
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Speaker 2: as you heard about the Biden administration about not having
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Speaker 2: someone in there who would take their phone call, who
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Speaker 2: would take a meeting with them. That's not going to
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Speaker 2: be a problem in terms of what these folks are doing,
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Speaker 2: what these players are doing. I was just thinking about
8:59
Speaker 2: a few memes. Hannah and I were swapping over the
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Speaker 2: last couple of days about Jamie Diamond going down to
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Speaker 2: Capitol Hill, and you know, folks wanted him to comment
9:07
Speaker 2: on the dismantling of the CFPB, I think, and he said,
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Speaker 2: no comment, and then he pulled out this chart that
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Speaker 2: he carries with him, his famous spaghetti chart that shows
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Speaker 2: this wide area of regulators and the oversight they have
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Speaker 2: over JP Morgan. That has been Jamie Diamond's pet pee
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Speaker 2: for a long time. And it's funny that it almost
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Speaker 2: has a printed outslide that he carries with him every
9:31
Speaker 2: time he goes from New York to DC. In fact,
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Speaker 2: I know Hannah has some interesting color on the backstory
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Speaker 2: of this chart.
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Speaker 3: Well, yeah, he does bring it with him, and it's
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Speaker 3: funny because it was actually originally in his twenty eleven
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Speaker 3: letter to shareholders, so you know, it's more than ten
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Speaker 3: years that he's had this with him. They call it
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Speaker 3: the spaghetti chart kind of informally, and it has all
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Speaker 3: these agencies and what they oversee and all the kind
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Speaker 3: of interconnecting lines, and you know, I'm looking it right now,
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Speaker 3: it's quite clear why it's called the spaghetti chart. But yeah,
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Speaker 3: you know, the complaint on Wall Street over the years
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Speaker 3: has been that there are too many cooks in the
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Speaker 3: kitchen basically on Wall Street overside. And so yeah, when
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Speaker 3: they went, when the bank CEOs went to DC last week,
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Speaker 3: it is not surprising to me at all that Jamie
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Speaker 3: had this chart with him.
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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's one thing that I would like to think about.
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Speaker 2: And it's something that maybe too if you can weigh on,
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Speaker 2: is I think the biggest firms on Wall Street, the
10:30
Speaker 2: biggest banks, for instance, had gotten used to Jamie Diamond's
10:34
Speaker 2: ten year old beef a side with the regulatory agenda,
10:38
Speaker 2: had gotten used to this idea that they had to
10:40
Speaker 2: invest a lot for the regulatory needs, for the regulatory requirements.
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Speaker 2: But effectively what they did was also build this wide,
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Speaker 2: deep moat because most other people cannot come in and
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Speaker 2: play on your turf. They if the cost of entering
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Speaker 2: that business is prohibitively high. That has helped especially and
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Speaker 2: I think about like the key trading businesses and some
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Speaker 2: of the other key businesses that are two, three, four
11:08
Speaker 2: top players. Everyone else sort of sits outside that mode.
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Speaker 2: So they've benefited greatly from that. So if you have
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Speaker 2: a rapid unraveling of the regulatory agenda, doesn't it in
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Speaker 2: some way backfire for these biggest players.
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Speaker 1: That's a wonderful point, Hannah. Do you have any insight
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Speaker 1: into them?
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Speaker 3: The way that I've heard it described over the years
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Speaker 3: is kind of death by a thousand cuts from the banks,
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Speaker 3: which is perhaps a bit dramatic, but basically, if you
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Speaker 3: go business by business, there are companies, non banks that
11:38
Speaker 3: have been able to play in that realm in a
11:41
Speaker 3: big way, but not you know, there haven't been new
11:44
Speaker 3: entrance to the kind of full on big bank systemically
11:48
Speaker 3: important category. So yeah, I think it's kind of tbd
11:52
Speaker 3: how that all shakes out, you know, in a world
11:54
Speaker 3: where there's a lot of deregulation, which you know, lets
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Speaker 3: the banks do more but also lowers those barrier centry.
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Speaker 1: That's a great point. And just from where I sit
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Speaker 1: in Washington, you know, having done a lot of reporting
12:05
Speaker 1: in the last week on elon mus stoge efforts, so
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Speaker 1: much of that group is staff by you know, tech
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Speaker 1: people who I think do want to you know, less regulation,
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Speaker 1: but they also want to sort of upset establish business
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Speaker 1: and the status quo, and so that is quite interesting.
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Speaker 1: I think that you know, just the idea that it
12:21
Speaker 1: would make it easier for other companies to come in.
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Speaker 1: One of you brought up Scott Besson, who is a
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Speaker 1: former hedge funder and who is now Treasury Secretary. That's
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Speaker 1: going to be such a key role this year as
12:32
Speaker 1: I think about cutting taxes again, I wonder how his
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Speaker 1: tenure is being viewed so far by by finance executives.
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Speaker 2: I think so far they have no complaints. Scott Besson's
12:41
Speaker 2: proved to be exactly what they thought he would be.
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Speaker 2: They see him as a bit of a moderating influence
12:47
Speaker 2: in Trump World. Of course, that might not really win
12:50
Speaker 2: you a lot of kudos and Trump World itself, and
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Speaker 2: Scott Besson will perhaps have to do more to prove
12:55
Speaker 2: himself in Trump's in a circle, make sure he's spending
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Speaker 2: more of his weekends now mar Lago instead of back
13:01
Speaker 2: at home in South Carolina. But for Wall Street and
13:03
Speaker 2: for markets in general, Scott Bessen was a choice that
13:08
Speaker 2: they all cheered, that they all welcome. They realize this
13:11
Speaker 2: is someone whose business focus, whose markets focus, and they
13:15
Speaker 2: could get behind this pick. Scott Pasant in that position
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Speaker 2: is good for Wall Street, And when you think about
13:22
Speaker 2: the key proposals about taxes, lowering tax rates. Yes, Scott
13:26
Speaker 2: Bessand will champion that. The question though, is is it
13:30
Speaker 2: going to be Scott Besant who makes sure that the
13:32
Speaker 2: tax cut policy actually makes its way through Congress. I
13:36
Speaker 2: don't know how much of a say in power he
13:38
Speaker 2: will have that, especially when you consider a Congress where,
13:41
Speaker 2: especially in the House, the Republicans have a very very
13:44
Speaker 2: slim majority, and you've already seen that there are various
13:48
Speaker 2: factions today's GOP. There half the times they're battling the Democrats,
13:52
Speaker 2: but most of the times in America, majority of the
13:55
Speaker 2: time they're battling their own different factions within the GOP.
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Speaker 2: And they have to figure out a way to put
14:01
Speaker 2: forward a unified front. And that is important for Wall Street.
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Speaker 2: I was just looking at some numbers before coming on here.
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Speaker 2: When you look at pre tax earnings that a Goldman
14:10
Speaker 2: Sachs at a Morgan Stanley, that's about twenty billion dollars
14:12
Speaker 2: a year. Let's say you can cut corporate tax rates,
14:17
Speaker 2: their effective tax rate can go down by five percent,
14:20
Speaker 2: you know, just making up a scenario which a nice
14:23
Speaker 2: round number like Donald Trump would prefer, that's about a
14:26
Speaker 2: billion dollars in savings. A billion dollars in savings is
14:29
Speaker 2: you could have a twenty thirty forty percent slow down
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Speaker 2: in deal making and therefore the fees that they make
14:36
Speaker 2: from that advisory business that you know, one of the
14:38
Speaker 2: key components they've been talking about when they talk about
14:41
Speaker 2: this turbocharge deal making environment. You could still have a big,
14:44
Speaker 2: massive slow down there, and yet that savings from the
14:48
Speaker 2: tax cuts could offset that. That's how important the tax
14:52
Speaker 2: cut agenda will be for these big banks. So they
14:55
Speaker 2: would hope that Scott Besson could work his magic. More importantly,
14:58
Speaker 2: they would pray for unity within GP ranks for that
15:01
Speaker 2: to come through.
15:02
Speaker 1: Howard Lutnik is the Commerce Secretary. He wanted to be
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Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary, but Trump passed him over. He has given
15:08
Speaker 1: him a powerful perch where he's in charge of all
15:10
Speaker 1: the tariffs. Howard Lutnik is a very familiar character to
15:14
Speaker 1: you all because he ran Canter Fitzgerald. But what should
15:17
Speaker 1: Washington d C. Know about the way Howard Lutnik operates
15:21
Speaker 1: as he sort of takes over a huge portfolio here.
15:24
Speaker 2: The most interesting dynamic about Howard Lutnik was how he
15:27
Speaker 2: almost Dick cheneyed himself in the leading the hunt for
15:30
Speaker 2: the Treasury secretary, only to say maybe I would be
15:33
Speaker 2: the best Treasury secretary. So the first few weeks, especially
15:35
Speaker 2: during the transition months, a lot of the talk in
15:37
Speaker 2: town was about this warring dynamic between Scott Bessant and
15:41
Speaker 2: Howard Lutnik. That's obviously not a good look in an
15:45
Speaker 2: administration that's so focused on these items of tariff's, tax's,
15:49
Speaker 2: deregulations and whatnot. You know that this person in the
15:52
Speaker 2: Commerce seat and the person in the Treasury seat have
15:54
Speaker 2: to work hand in hand. They've even been given this
15:57
Speaker 2: mandate of figuring out how to create this sovereign wealth
16:00
Speaker 2: fund that also involves a lot of Scott Beson and
16:04
Speaker 2: Lutnick working together. And I think Kevin has it involved
16:06
Speaker 2: there as well. So more than how he operates on
16:10
Speaker 2: Wall Street, which again he will say and do things
16:13
Speaker 2: that are generally appreciated by Wall Street. He is from
16:17
Speaker 2: New York. He's an old time fixture. He knows everyone
16:20
Speaker 2: in the city, so he knows all of Wall Street.
16:22
Speaker 2: That all works just fine. In fact, much like Trump,
16:25
Speaker 2: he was also a one time Hillary Clinton fundraiser and
16:28
Speaker 2: now he's Team Trump. Much like Donald Trump is now
16:31
Speaker 2: Team Trump after once being a Hillary Currenton fundraiser. But
16:35
Speaker 2: the fact remains that Wall Street will have no issues
16:40
Speaker 2: with Lutnick. It's more whether Lutnik can navigate the dynamics
16:44
Speaker 2: of getting along with everyone in Team Trump, especially someone
16:48
Speaker 2: like Scott Beson, to be able to push through the agenda,
16:51
Speaker 2: the ambitious agenda that they need to push through, in
16:55
Speaker 2: a way that does not rattle markets, in a way
16:58
Speaker 2: that also is fiscally responsible. You know, they talk about
17:02
Speaker 2: the ballooning debt burden, but when you think about the
17:04
Speaker 2: deregulatory agenda and the massive tax cuts that they're trying
17:08
Speaker 2: to push through, that will have an impact on the deficits.
17:11
Speaker 2: So how do you offset for all of that? It
17:13
Speaker 2: will require a lot of careful planning with the rank
17:16
Speaker 2: and file of the GOP in Congress, with the various
17:19
Speaker 2: administration members, and with the various cabinet members. That's the
17:23
Speaker 2: dynamic that Lutnik will have to be focused on, because
17:26
Speaker 2: that will be a difficult needle to thread.
17:27
Speaker 3: Steve Minuchin was Treasury Secretary in Trump's first term, and
17:32
Speaker 3: Wall Street executives liked him then, and they looked back
17:37
Speaker 3: fondly on his tenure. You know, he was there the
17:39
Speaker 3: whole time. He was seen as kind of a steady
17:41
Speaker 3: presence in that world, and it's someone who they recognize
17:45
Speaker 3: and that goes a long way. And so I would
17:47
Speaker 3: say that with both Bessen and Lutnik now it's a
17:50
Speaker 3: similar dynamic.
17:52
Speaker 1: I'm so curious to see how Lutink fares because just
17:54
Speaker 1: as a political reporter, he made a bunch of Trump people,
17:57
Speaker 1: you know, on the politics side of things, quite angry
18:00
Speaker 1: during the transition when he sort of ran roughshot over
18:03
Speaker 1: things and put his own name up for Treasury secretary.
18:05
Speaker 1: So I am I asked, because I am really watching
18:08
Speaker 1: sort of how he operates in a political environment. One
18:11
Speaker 1: final question, and Hannah, I want to go to you first.
18:14
Speaker 1: I am curious. You know, there's so much political geo
18:18
Speaker 1: instability right now. You know, we are trying to figure
18:21
Speaker 1: out what's going to happen with the end of the
18:24
Speaker 1: war in Ukraine. As Trump thinks about that, it's very
18:27
Speaker 1: uncertain what his relationship with Heran will be like. He
18:30
Speaker 1: has said that he wants all the Palestinians to leave Gaza.
18:33
Speaker 1: There's just a lot of big foreign policy questions right now,
18:37
Speaker 1: and I'm wondering if that concerns the finance executives that
18:40
Speaker 1: you speak to at all and just sort of how
18:42
Speaker 1: they're factoring that into their plans for the next year
18:45
Speaker 1: or so.
18:46
Speaker 3: Yeah, it absolutely does. I think the way that that
18:48
Speaker 3: translates to the business side of things, or one of
18:51
Speaker 3: the ways that that translates is, you know, when you
18:53
Speaker 3: look at deals like M and A and the cross
18:56
Speaker 3: border aspect of that, are cross border deals getting done.
19:00
Speaker 3: And we were talking earlier about the post election euphoria
19:03
Speaker 3: that continued, but I was speaking to a bank executive
19:06
Speaker 3: last week who was describing it as US firms are
19:09
Speaker 3: waiting for the dust to settle. So you know that
19:11
Speaker 3: euphoria hasn't been immediately translating. But in Europe there was
19:15
Speaker 3: apprehension immediately post election that has turned a bit more
19:18
Speaker 3: into how can we get in on US economic growth?
19:22
Speaker 3: And then you know in Asia, especially China and Hong Kong,
19:25
Speaker 3: there's a sense of it's not as bad as it
19:27
Speaker 3: could have been in the early days and weeks. So
19:30
Speaker 3: I think that as you're looking across kind of the
19:32
Speaker 3: different regions, there are different expectations and then reactions to
19:38
Speaker 3: you know, the things that are happening as they happen,
19:40
Speaker 3: but it is there is still broad sense that it's
19:42
Speaker 3: early days in this administration. People are kind of waiting
19:44
Speaker 3: to see how things shake out.
19:46
Speaker 2: I would go back and look at the world economic
19:49
Speaker 2: order and say, perhaps since the two thousand and eight
19:52
Speaker 2: financial crisis, if you look at different parts of the world,
19:55
Speaker 2: Europe massively struggled. Africa is still a growth story but
19:58
Speaker 2: has now not hit the breakout phase. Middle East has
20:01
Speaker 2: been a bright spot. That have been strong emerging economies
20:04
Speaker 2: in Asia, which have had their stumbles once in a while,
20:08
Speaker 2: but in general, over the last decade or so, the
20:10
Speaker 2: American growth story in some ways has been unparalleled. And
20:15
Speaker 2: perhaps that leads to this assumption that America has an
20:19
Speaker 2: island onto itself and what happens in the rest of
20:21
Speaker 2: the world doesn't necessarily affect the country, And you could
20:26
Speaker 2: assume that in a America first focused administration that is
20:32
Speaker 2: the predominant thought. But I feel that the world is
20:36
Speaker 2: way too interconnected that you can't just overnight snap your
20:41
Speaker 2: fingers and say, you know, each one to himself. That
20:46
Speaker 2: will be very difficult. So from that perspective, when you
20:49
Speaker 2: think about how the geopolitical situation is playing out worldwide.
20:53
Speaker 2: If you have a scenario where your enemies remain your
20:57
Speaker 2: enemies and you turn your allies into your enemies Que Canada, Q,
21:02
Speaker 2: European Union and the big speech from JD Vans or
21:05
Speaker 2: the Munich Security Conference over the weekend, she suddenly start
21:09
Speaker 2: to distance all of those players who've been your allies,
21:13
Speaker 2: who've been part of you know, enabling helping your growth story.
21:18
Speaker 2: Then it does reach a situation where it starts to
21:22
Speaker 2: worry markets, it starts to worry the big investors, and
21:25
Speaker 2: it starts to worry the big films. That is one
21:27
Speaker 2: reason why Jamie Diamond's almost been like a broken record
21:30
Speaker 2: for the last half a decade talking about how the
21:32
Speaker 2: geopolitical risks in the world today are the biggest risk
21:36
Speaker 2: faced by the world. To an extent, it almost feels
21:39
Speaker 2: like he's been talking about these dark clouds on the
21:42
Speaker 2: horizon without any real follow through on that. But he's
21:47
Speaker 2: not wrong. Not a lot has to go wrong for
21:50
Speaker 2: things to turn in the absolute wrong direction, and that
21:53
Speaker 2: will be a cause for worry. And at that time
21:56
Speaker 2: you can forget about the cheering on of dealmaking and
21:59
Speaker 2: tax cuts and deregular. You have much scarier things to
22:02
Speaker 2: worry about.
22:04
Speaker 1: What's one thing that you think the listeners should know
22:06
Speaker 1: just about Trump and the Wall Street relationship that we
22:09
Speaker 1: haven't talked about yet.
22:10
Speaker 2: He lives and dies by the market. He judges himself
22:12
Speaker 2: by how the markets performed. So he might be wedded
22:17
Speaker 2: to a policy, but it almost feels like if the
22:21
Speaker 2: market gives it a veryative negative reaction, the sense is
22:26
Speaker 2: that Trump will backtrack.
22:27
Speaker 3: And that is something that Wall Street executives have almost
22:30
Speaker 3: been taking solace in, you know, in recent weeks, and
22:34
Speaker 3: probably will continue.
22:35
Speaker 2: To do so, maybe almost taking it for granted. Let
22:38
Speaker 2: me caveat that by saying that is the assumption on
22:41
Speaker 2: Wall Street in the second Trump administration, where it seems
22:45
Speaker 2: more untethered from prior norms. It's not entirely clear to
22:50
Speaker 2: me that that still will remain his guiding philosophy, but
22:52
Speaker 2: at least Wall Street things and hopes and beliefs that
22:55
Speaker 2: still remains the guiding principle about Donald Trump when they
22:58
Speaker 2: think about Donald Trump.
22:59
Speaker 1: That's a great point. I do think this stock market
23:01
Speaker 1: was sort of his primary form of polling in his
23:04
Speaker 1: first term. But I think you're right I think he
23:07
Speaker 1: is a more self assured leader now and fairly confident
23:11
Speaker 1: in how he's moving. And so you're right, I'm not
23:13
Speaker 1: sure sort of if that if the stock market and
23:16
Speaker 1: how it's performing will be a checks and balances on
23:18
Speaker 1: him this time. Shre thank you so much for joining us.
23:21
Speaker 1: This was wonderful to have you.
23:23
Speaker 2: Always great chatting with you.
23:24
Speaker 1: Nancy and Hannah, thank you so much. It was great
23:26
Speaker 1: to speak with you from New York.
23:28
Speaker 3: Yeah, thank you for having us.
23:34
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to this week's trump Andomics from Bloomberg.
23:37
Speaker 1: It was hosted by me Nancy Cook. I was joined
23:40
Speaker 1: by shridehar Nojeron and Hannah Lovett. Trump Andomics is produced
23:44
Speaker 1: by Summer Saudi and Moses Andam with help from Chris
23:47
Speaker 1: Martlou Special thanks to Dashel Bennett and Jared Rudderman. Sound
23:52
Speaker 1: designed by Blake Maples. Brendan Francis Newman is our executive producer.
23:57
Speaker 1: To help others find the show, please rate and review
24:00
Speaker 1: wherever you listen to podcasts.
24:07
Speaker 2: Mhmm