Latest / The President's Daily Brief / PDB Special Bulletin | Baker & Slater: Is Iran Trying to Trap Trump in a Forever War?

Transcript

PDB Special Bulletin | Baker & Slater: Is Iran Trying to Trap Trump in a Forever War? · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:00
  Hey,
• 0:00
  Mike Baker here.
• 0:01
  I recently had a chance to sit down with my good friend Mike Slater,
• 0:04
  host of the excellent Politics by Faith podcast.
• 0:07
  Now,
• 0:07
  we took a step back from the day to day headlines and,
• 0:10
  and we looked at the Iran conflict from
• 0:12
  the 30,000 ft view,
• 0:14
  sort of the big picture.
• 0:15
  Why President Trump got involved in the first place,
• 0:17
  who and what is the Islamic Republic of Iran,
• 0:20
  where negotiations may be headed,
• 0:22
  and what's really motivating both sides.
• 0:25
  I hope you'll take a few minutes to give it a listen.
• 0:27
  That's the Politics by Faith podcast
• 0:30
  with Mike Slater.
• 0:36
  Let's go to our friend Mike Baker,
• 0:38
  the great Mike Baker,
• 0:39
  host of
• 0:40
  one of the top podcasts in the entire world,
• 0:42
  the President's Daily Brief.
• 0:44
  Mr.
• 0:45
  Baker,
• 0:45
  how do you do,
• 0:45
  sir?
• 0:46
  I do fine.
• 0:47
  I do fine.
• 0:49
  How do you do?
• 0:50
  It's uh we sound very formal.
• 0:52
  Top of the morning to you,
• 0:53
  sir.
• 0:53
  I tip my hat your way
• 0:55
  to you and your kin.
• 0:56
  Yeah,
• 0:57
  yeah,
• 0:58
  no,
• 0:58
  it's all good.
• 0:59
  I think no one's ever called.
• 1:00
  No,
• 1:00
  I was gonna say no one's ever called out my,
• 1:02
  my intro like that before.
• 1:04
  I appreciate that.
• 1:06
  Oh,
• 1:07
  that's good.
• 1:07
  It deserves looks good.
• 1:08
  The world is in peace.
• 1:09
  We got a community of nations.
• 1:11
  That's right.
• 1:11
  It's all good,
• 1:12
  yeah,
• 1:13
  community,
• 1:14
  community of nations,
• 1:16
  yeah,
• 1:17
  is that what y'all call it?
• 1:18
  Uh,
• 1:19
  that's great.
• 1:19
  All right,
• 1:19
  well,
• 1:19
  let's,
• 1:20
  let's,
• 1:20
  let's talk about this community.
• 1:22
  Um,
• 1:23
  so I think there's a lot of frustration.
• 1:24
  I know there's a lot of frustration about Iran.
• 1:26
  My read,
• 1:28
  correct me why you think I'm wrong.
• 1:29
  Is that the president
• 1:31
  had a couple of like massive,
• 1:32
  overwhelming,
• 1:33
  incredible victories,
• 1:34
  like don't even make sense victories
• 1:36
  and a lot of peace president stuff was going on
• 1:39
  around the world and then Maduro and that went,
• 1:41
  uh,
• 1:41
  you know,
• 1:41
  like what?
• 1:42
  And I think he was on like a hot streak.
• 1:44
  So we're like,
• 1:45
  all right,
• 1:45
  let's go to Iran
• 1:46
  and
• 1:47
  I think the perception is that this hasn't gone.
• 1:50
  Well,
• 1:51
  um,
• 1:52
  but I,
• 1:52
  I think,
• 1:53
  and this is why I'd like to,
• 1:54
  first of all,
• 1:54
  I'll get your assessment there,
• 1:55
  but I also like your expertise on knowing our enemy,
• 1:57
  like who is this enemy?
• 1:58
  Who is Iran?
• 1:59
  Who we need to know who they are.
• 2:02
  Yeah,
• 2:03
  yeah,
• 2:03
  I,
• 2:03
  I think,
• 2:04
  I think by everyone's perception,
• 2:06
  this,
• 2:06
  this hasn't gone well.
• 2:08
  And,
• 2:08
  and I think you're,
• 2:09
  you're,
• 2:09
  you're absolutely right to have pointed out the Venezuela incident.
• 2:13
  I think unfortunately that
• 2:16
  Set the table or at least kind of framed
• 2:19
  as a scenario for how this could go.
• 2:22
  Um,
• 2:23
  obviously,
• 2:23
  there was a lot of talk about the veracity,
• 2:26
  the credibility of the intelligence that was coming out saying they're,
• 2:29
  they're
• 2:29
  just around the corner from having a nuclear weapon.
• 2:32
  Um,
• 2:33
  you know,
• 2:33
  there's,
• 2:34
  there's people that are in,
• 2:35
  you know,
• 2:35
  they say,
• 2:35
  yes,
• 2:36
  that's true.
• 2:36
  There's other people who say,
• 2:37
  I,
• 2:37
  I don't know if the intelligence has been corroborated.
• 2:40
  But,
• 2:41
  uh,
• 2:41
  I think they were a little bit
• 2:44
  intoxicated on the Venezuela experience
• 2:47
  and
• 2:48
  didn't
• 2:49
  necessarily
• 2:51
  Look,
• 2:51
  I don't wanna say think this through because
• 2:53
  that doesn't give the Pentagon enough credit,
• 2:55
  uh,
• 2:55
  but
• 2:56
  Clearly,
• 2:57
  they thought this was going to take it much like Putin in Ukraine.
• 3:00
  I think the White House just imagines that
• 3:02
  this was somehow going to happen very quickly.
• 3:04
  And
• 3:05
  part of that is what you then referred to,
• 3:07
  which is understanding who it is that we're dealing with.
• 3:10
  And we're dealing with
• 3:11
  Islamist fundamentalists.
• 3:13
  We're dealing with the Islamic Republic of Iran.
• 3:16
  The same leadership.
• 3:18
  Now,
• 3:18
  over the years,
• 3:20
  there's been this narrative occasionally thrown out there
• 3:22
  by people like John Kerry or Joe Biden,
• 3:26
  Barack Obama,
• 3:27
  usually on the Democrat side.
• 3:28
  Well,
• 3:29
  right now we're negotiating with the pragmatic leadership of Iran.
• 3:33
  We're dealing with a more
• 3:34
  realistic and pragmatic.
• 3:36
  That,
• 3:36
  that doesn't exist in,
• 3:37
  in the Western concept.
• 3:38
  We think that way,
• 3:39
  but over there,
• 3:41
  That doesn't,
• 3:42
  that there's,
• 3:43
  there's no such thing as a pragmatic Islamist fundamentalist,
• 3:46
  right?
• 3:47
  So,
• 3:48
  I think we misunderstood who it is that we were dealing with,
• 3:51
  how much pain they were willing to bear,
• 3:53
  and pushed down on the Iranian people,
• 3:55
  but they already slaughtered thousands of their own folks in,
• 3:57
  in the beginning of the year
• 3:59
  during those protests.
• 4:00
  So,
• 4:01
  I think there was,
• 4:01
  there was some real miscalculations here.
• 4:03
  And then it's a mystery
• 4:06
  to me how
• 4:08
  And maybe we did,
• 4:09
  and we just don't necessarily see it in uh what happened afterwards.
• 4:13
  But
• 4:14
  it was always gonna end up in the Strait of Hormuz,
• 4:17
  right?
• 4:17
  That's,
• 4:18
  that's their primary point of leverage.
• 4:20
  And
• 4:21
  so how we didn't understand that from the very outset before we even
• 4:26
  let loose with the munitions.
• 4:28
  Um,
• 4:29
  so yeah,
• 4:29
  there's a lot of confusion here
• 4:30
  at this stage as to where is this thing going.
• 4:34
  It's very interesting.
• 4:36
  I don't know if this is also an American thing or part of being in the West,
• 4:39
  but how much we can't even fathom
• 4:42
  that people are different around the world.
• 4:45
  Let,
• 4:45
  let alone understand the differences.
• 4:47
  It's,
• 4:47
  it's hard for people to understand that they're,
• 4:49
  that anyone would think differently than we do.
• 4:51
  I don't know if that speaks to our narcissism or,
• 4:54
  or our goodwill and our charity and
• 4:57
  I think it's a
• 4:58
  magnanimity of those things,
• 4:59
  you know,
• 4:59
  look,
• 4:59
  we tend to,
• 5:00
  as Americans,
• 5:01
  we tend to
• 5:02
  mirror,
• 5:03
  right,
• 5:03
  our values.
• 5:04
  We,
• 5:04
  we tend to
• 5:05
  it's,
• 5:05
  it's
• 5:06
  in a,
• 5:06
  in a simple sense,
• 5:08
  right?
• 5:08
  It's like when you go to a,
• 5:11
  an event or a function or a cocktail party,
• 5:13
  right?
• 5:13
  And you're,
• 5:13
  you're,
• 5:14
  if you,
• 5:14
  if you stand across from somebody and you're talking,
• 5:16
  right.
• 5:18
  If you try this little experiment,
• 5:19
  lean in a little bit.
• 5:20
  The person will likely lean in,
• 5:22
  uh,
• 5:23
  you know,
• 5:24
  pick up your,
• 5:24
  your,
• 5:25
  your drink and kind of stand there.
• 5:26
  They'll,
• 5:26
  they'll probably do the same.
• 5:27
  People in a physical sense tend to mirror
• 5:30
  actions,
• 5:31
  right?
• 5:31
  And you oftentimes do that when you're trying to get the person on side,
• 5:35
  right?
• 5:35
  When you,
• 5:35
  so in an And
• 5:36
  I don't wanna say interrogation,
• 5:38
  but let's say you're trying to elicit information,
• 5:40
  mirroring the other person
• 5:41
  is a good technique,
• 5:43
  oftentimes.
• 5:44
  And
• 5:44
  we tend to do it at the 30,000 ft level.
• 5:47
  Americans tend to do it with our values.
• 5:49
  So,
• 5:49
  you're exactly right.
• 5:51
  We don't understand because we constantly,
• 5:53
  decade after decade,
• 5:55
  Right?
• 5:55
  Whether it was Afghanistan,
• 5:56
  Iraq,
• 5:57
  doesn't matter where it is,
• 5:58
  Libya,
• 5:58
  we,
• 5:59
  we tend to,
• 6:00
  we tend to imagine that they're overseas,
• 6:02
  they're gonna think a certain way that we do.
• 6:04
  And
• 6:06
  particularly in the Middle East,
• 6:07
  particularly with fundamentalists,
• 6:09
  it doesn't work.
• 6:11
  We don't unders we can't understand,
• 6:13
  we can't process
• 6:14
  how they think.
• 6:15
  In Iraq,
• 6:16
  they would,
• 6:17
  you know,
• 6:17
  the,
• 6:18
  the,
• 6:18
  the radicals,
• 6:19
  the fundamentalists would,
• 6:20
  would strap a bomb belt
• 6:21
  on a,
• 6:22
  on a mentally disabled child and,
• 6:23
  and have that kid walk into a market and blow himself and others up.
• 6:28
  We can't process that.
• 6:29
  We don't,
• 6:29
  we,
• 6:30
  we don't understand what that mindset is like.
• 6:33
  So,
• 6:33
  the idea that right now the White House seems,
• 6:36
  I don't wanna say confused again,
• 6:37
  it's not giving him enough credit,
• 6:38
  but
• 6:39
  seems uh hm at a bit of a loss as to why
• 6:42
  the current regime leadership
• 6:45
  is refusing to give in.
• 6:46
  I think that's confusing
• 6:48
  some people.
• 6:50
  Yes,
• 6:51
  cause the,
• 6:52
  cause,
• 6:52
  because why,
• 6:53
  what do we need to know about them or,
• 6:54
  or maybe Islam in general?
• 6:56
  Maybe that's a different question,
• 6:56
  but these guys,
• 6:58
  are they just willing to suffer pain,
• 7:02
  whether it be themselves or have other people experience just pain and it doesn't
• 7:06
  affect them at all,
• 7:07
  they don't care.
• 7:09
  Well,
• 7:10
  they certainly don't care whether they're people,
• 7:11
  their,
• 7:12
  their population suffers,
• 7:13
  um,
• 7:14
  or whether they have to kill their way out of another series of protests.
• 7:17
  That's the biggest issue they've got right now.
• 7:18
  The,
• 7:19
  the,
• 7:19
  the leverage that the US has isn't more munitions dropping from the sky.
• 7:23
  It's,
• 7:23
  it's this economic leverage that the White House is talking about,
• 7:26
  this economic D-Day.
• 7:27
  The problem is,
• 7:28
  do we have the patience,
• 7:29
  right?
• 7:29
  The ability
• 7:31
  to,
• 7:31
  to maintain that long enough.
• 7:33
  Now,
• 7:34
  The problem there is it creates a humanitarian crisis,
• 7:36
  right?
• 7:37
  Because that regime,
• 7:37
  that leadership,
• 7:38
  the IRGC isn't gonna
• 7:39
  stop eating.
• 7:40
  They're not gonna stop paying themselves,
• 7:42
  stop getting gas in their vehicles.
• 7:44
  But they're gonna push all that pain down to the people,
• 7:46
  to the families,
• 7:47
  and they're already suffering.
• 7:48
  They got
• 7:48
  food costs have gone up over 130%,
• 7:51
  right?
• 7:51
  Inflation is hovering around 70%.
• 7:54
  Uh,
• 7:55
  the,
• 7:55
  the value of a wage
• 7:56
  has dropped through the floor.
• 7:58
  Um,
• 7:59
  and
• 8:00
  So,
• 8:01
  the,
• 8:01
  the regime is concerned
• 8:03
  about potential new civil unrest,
• 8:05
  about protests,
• 8:07
  but
• 8:08
  they do have a game plan.
• 8:09
  If that happens,
• 8:10
  they'll just,
• 8:11
  you know,
• 8:11
  attempt to kill their way out of it again,
• 8:13
  right?
• 8:13
  If they,
• 8:14
  if they get to the point where they look and go,
• 8:16
  we're gonna lose our grip on power,
• 8:17
  then,
• 8:19
  then.
• 8:20
  The regime leadership,
• 8:21
  not Posseskia,
• 8:22
  not,
• 8:22
  not the president.
• 8:23
  President Masoud Poseskian,
• 8:24
  everybody's talking about,
• 8:24
  oh,
• 8:24
  he,
• 8:25
  he said he'd like to go back to this memorandum of understanding from June.
• 8:29
  Masoud Poseskian doesn't run things.
• 8:31
  He's been,
• 8:32
  he,
• 8:32
  he's,
• 8:32
  he's a figurehead,
• 8:33
  much like the supreme Leader if he's still alive.
• 8:36
  So,
• 8:37
  but if the regime
• 8:38
  leadership that actually controls the place,
• 8:40
  the IRGC hardliners,
• 8:41
  the commanders that have been risen up and
• 8:43
  put into place and control the besieged militia
• 8:45
  and the IRGC,
• 8:47
  if they feel like,
• 8:47
  oh,
• 8:48
  we're one step away from losing what we have,
• 8:52
  yeah,
• 8:52
  then you'll,
• 8:52
  you'll get a,
• 8:53
  a change.
• 8:54
  Of direction
• 8:56
  But with the caveat that
• 8:58
  their other thought process may be now push the rest of the chips into the table,
• 9:02
  we're all in on this one.
• 9:04
  So
• 9:04
  you can't,
• 9:06
  you can't,
• 9:06
  you can't put a Western value concept.
• 9:08
  You can't,
• 9:09
  you can't imagine that they think like we would
• 9:11
  and that the logic train runs the same way that it would in the West.
• 9:16
  Uh,
• 9:16
  last question for you,
• 9:17
  because
• 9:17
  the name of the game today has been,
• 9:19
  uh,
• 9:19
  distinctions and just drawing distinctions between
• 9:22
  this group and that group or
• 9:24
  whatever,
• 9:25
  uh,
• 9:25
  so correct me if,
• 9:26
  if there's a distinction here that I need to understand,
• 9:29
  but a value that we have in America,
• 9:31
  I think,
• 9:31
  is
• 9:32
  although we
• 9:33
  appreciate our warriors,
• 9:34
  we would prefer
• 9:36
  not to have war.
• 9:38
  Like we like,
• 9:38
  we don't
• 9:39
  like we prefer peace,
• 9:40
  we value peace
• 9:42
  in Islam.
• 9:43
  Do they have,
• 9:44
  is that a similar value,
• 9:45
  or am I assuming it's the same value we have,
• 9:48
  or do they prefer to be in a state of war?
• 9:50
  Or maybe they do,
• 9:50
  maybe,
• 9:51
  maybe that's a human thing that they prefer peace.
• 9:52
  I don't know what,
• 9:53
  what have you learned?
• 9:54
  Yeah,
• 9:54
  yeah,
• 9:54
  I think that,
• 9:56
  you know,
• 9:56
  whether they prefer like everybody's an individual to some degree,
• 9:59
  right?
• 9:59
  You know,
• 10:00
  except for the zealots,
• 10:01
  right,
• 10:01
  the,
• 10:01
  the radical
• 10:02
  fundamentalists,
• 10:03
  then,
• 10:04
  you know,
• 10:04
  they tend to think it's a block,
• 10:05
  but,
• 10:06
  you know,
• 10:06
  other people,
• 10:07
  no matter what their religion,
• 10:08
  I think
• 10:08
  for the most part prefer,
• 10:10
  uh,
• 10:11
  not to have conflict.
• 10:12
  Um,
• 10:13
  in a variety of ways,
• 10:14
  but
• 10:15
  the,
• 10:17
  you know,
• 10:17
  the,
• 10:17
  the regime is,
• 10:19
  it's the Islamic Republic of Iran,
• 10:21
  and
• 10:23
  By definition,
• 10:24
  that implies that they assume
• 10:27
  they will be at war.
• 10:28
  There's this
• 10:29
  underlying bit,
• 10:30
  no matter how they talk about the religion of peace,
• 10:32
  right?
• 10:32
  There's,
• 10:33
  there's an underlying tone
• 10:34
  of
• 10:36
  at some point you have to defeat the infidels,
• 10:39
  right?
• 10:39
  And so that's right,
• 10:41
  I,
• 10:41
  you know,
• 10:41
  I think there's,
• 10:42
  and again,
• 10:42
  that's not everybody.
• 10:43
  You can't paint everybody with the same brush,
• 10:46
  but
• 10:47
  You,
• 10:47
  the,
• 10:48
  the Islamic Republic,
• 10:49
  the leadership that exists in Iran today
• 10:51
  doesn't see any
• 10:53
  upside to stopping what they're currently doing.
• 10:57
  Because they honestly believe that if they just maintain,
• 11:00
  right,
• 11:00
  and they can survive the munitions dropping from the sky,
• 11:03
  China is not cooperating with President Trump's economic D-Day.
• 11:08
  So they do have a lifeline in terms of economic pressure.
• 11:11
  They believe that if they just hold on
• 11:14
  for that kung fu-like grip on power,
• 11:17
  that the White House,
• 11:18
  Trump,
• 11:19
  will at some point cave in because of US domestic political pressure,
• 11:23
  uh,
• 11:23
  rising gas prices,
• 11:25
  general mood of the American public in terms of its,
• 11:28
  its attitude towards this conflict.
• 11:30
  So,
• 11:31
  that's where they are right now.
• 11:33
  You know,
• 11:33
  there,
• 11:33
  there shouldn't be any confusion as to
• 11:35
  why they're not,
• 11:36
  you know,
• 11:36
  waving the flag and saying we want to sit at the
• 11:38
  table and we're gonna make all sorts of concessions and compromises.
• 11:42
  Uh,
• 11:42
  that doesn't
• 11:43
  seem to be in the cards anytime soon.
• 11:46
  Mike Baker,
• 11:47
  host of the President's Daily Brief.
• 11:49
  Mike,
• 11:49
  always appreciate you.
• 11:50
  Thank you,
• 11:50
  brother.
• 11:51
  Thank you,
• 11:51
  man.
• 11:51
  Appreciate you.